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Could becoming a republic be the only way to keep Scotland in the Union? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,212
edited December 20 in General
imageCould becoming a republic be the only way to keep Scotland in the Union? – politicalbetting.com

Yesterday an interesting piece of polling was published

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    No.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,140
    Clearly no. Conservative Epping HQ have a brilliant plan involving tanks that would work just as effectively.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956
    edited December 20
    Taz said:

    FPT

    The Reeves effect.

    1st August business confidence is at a 3 year high.

    Now it is at a 4 year low.

    This from the same people who claim ‘Truss crashed the economy”

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1869710310409687213?s=61

    Budget has caused economy to stagnate, Bank of England says

    Andrew Bailey downgrades growth forecasts and says businesses are cutting costs and raising prices after Rachel Reeves’s raid on employers’ NI


    The Bank of England has warned that the economy is stagnating after Rachel Reeves’s budget as businesses have responded by raising prices and cutting jobs.

    Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said that there would be a gradual approach to cutting interest rates because of concerns over the impact of tax rises and a higher minimum wage.

    Officials at the Bank downgraded their forecasts and said that they now expect “zero growth” in the final three months of 2024.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/budget-has-caused-economy-to-stagnate-bank-of-england-says-vbmr7gf6d
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,916

    Taz said:

    FPT

    The Reeves effect.

    1st August business confidence is at a 3 year high.

    Now it is at a 4 year low.

    This from the same people who claim ‘Truss crashed the economy”

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1869710310409687213?s=61

    Budget has caused economy to stagnate, Bank of England says

    Andrew Bailey downgrades growth forecasts and says businesses are cutting costs and raising prices after Rachel Reeves’s raid on employers’ NI


    The Bank of England has warned that the economy is stagnating after Rachel Reeves’s budget as businesses have responded by raising prices and cutting jobs.

    Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said that there would be a gradual approach to cutting interest rates because of concerns over the impact of tax rises and a higher minimum wage.

    Officials at the Bank downgraded their forecasts and said that they now expect “zero growth” in the final three months of 2024.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/budget-has-caused-economy-to-stagnate-bank-of-england-says-vbmr7gf6d
    Gee, I wonder who saw that coming.

    Slow clap for Ms Reeves.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    …more?

    As the lead should surely finish?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,112
    edited December 20
    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144

    Clearly no. Conservative Epping HQ have a brilliant plan involving tanks that would work just as effectively.

    There are surely some demon drone operators in those tenement flats?
  • IanB2 said:

    …more?

    As the lead should surely finish?

    Yes, you can tell I wrote this piece at a Christmas party.

    It will amuse some of you there was a quiz and one of the sections was on Christmas music, films, and TV shows and of the questions was

    'Which 1980s film starring Bruce Willis and Alan Rickman is set at Christmas Eve'?

    I am putting in a grievance in to HR this morning.
  • Interesting old Telegraph story highlighted by a Guido commentor:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/4996440/Lord-Mandelson-must-remain-loyal-to-EU-to-guarantee-pension.html

    It's only 30 thousand a year he gets, but it seems a pretty clear conflict of interest to me. He should relinquish the pension upon joining the British diplomatic service.

    It's a bit of antisemitic trope or two to accuse a Jewish man of having split loyalties and is being influenced by money.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,956
    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,700

    Interesting old Telegraph story highlighted by a Guido commentor:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/4996440/Lord-Mandelson-must-remain-loyal-to-EU-to-guarantee-pension.html

    It's only 30 thousand a year he gets, but it seems a pretty clear conflict of interest to me. He should relinquish the pension upon joining the British diplomatic service.

    It's a bit of antisemitic trope or two to accuse a Jewish man of having split loyalties and is being influenced by money.
    I'm the first person to call out antisemitic tropes on here.

    But to suggest Peter Mandelson has made a career out of split loyalties and being influenced by money is a pure statement of fact, regardless of his being Jewish.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,423
    Following on from the Latin discussion on the previous thread, YouTube offered me this piece of genius yesterday:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xtt78SW-mgg

    (I've no idea if the Latin is correct...)
  • IanB2 said:

    …more?

    As the lead should surely finish?

    Yes, you can tell I wrote this piece at a Christmas party.

    It will amuse some of you there was a quiz and one of the sections was on Christmas music, films, and TV shows and of the questions was

    'Which 1980s film starring Bruce Willis and Alan Rickman is set at Christmas Eve'?

    I am putting in a grievance in to HR this morning.
    Quite right. It should be on Christmas Eve. Your quiz department is clearly overrun with Russian spies.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,141
    The one thing to remember about US politics and public life is that it’s primarily show business.
    Hence Trump (& Musk).

    https://x.com/_johnnymaga/status/1869807874777432495?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,112
    Pretty good figures for independence in that polling, even before ditching the parasites.

    The 2026 Holyrood elections are going to be Starmers first big electoral test. Despite recent years, surely the SNP are going to win a majority.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,760
    edited December 20
    On topic... barring some absolutely staggering scandal that's overpoweringly lurid even by the standards of these febrile times, the monarchy is going nowhere so this polling is irrelevant.

    Chaz is in no position to do any scandals, staggering or otherwise, because he's basically just a tumour with a crown on top at this point.

    The ScotNats need to regroup and refresh having missed their shot with Johnson and the descent into complacent decadence of the leadership of the SNP. That's probably at least a decade or more away but I sincerely wish them well in their liberation struggle.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,553
    FFS listening to Amol Rajan interviewing some bod from Southern Water and it’s the most ridiculous sort of torches and pitchforks type kill the monster interview ever. Instead of a sensible deep discussion about the problems in Hampshire and general issues you would think the poor chap being interviewed had personally decided to fuck up the water system and to start crying and begging forgiveness under the moral battering from Amol.

    When did all journalists become such massive dickheads? Why are they so totally focussed on feels and moralising instead of facts and answers? I know I should stop listening but I’ve been listening for decades and it feels like a case of Today leaving me rather than me leaving Today.

    I’m waiting for Emma Barnett to ask people from Hampshire to hone in with their stories about why they couldn’t shower yesterday is a sign of the continued oppression of WASPI women.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934

    Taz said:

    FPT

    The Reeves effect.

    1st August business confidence is at a 3 year high.

    Now it is at a 4 year low.

    This from the same people who claim ‘Truss crashed the economy”

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1869710310409687213?s=61

    Budget has caused economy to stagnate, Bank of England says

    Andrew Bailey downgrades growth forecasts and says businesses are cutting costs and raising prices after Rachel Reeves’s raid on employers’ NI


    The Bank of England has warned that the economy is stagnating after Rachel Reeves’s budget as businesses have responded by raising prices and cutting jobs.

    Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said that there would be a gradual approach to cutting interest rates because of concerns over the impact of tax rises and a higher minimum wage.

    Officials at the Bank downgraded their forecasts and said that they now expect “zero growth” in the final three months of 2024.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/budget-has-caused-economy-to-stagnate-bank-of-england-says-vbmr7gf6d
    Gee, I wonder who saw that coming.

    Slow clap for Ms Reeves.
    Thread header idea: will 2025 deliver the Reeve Recession?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,956
    boulay said:

    FFS listening to Amol Rajan interviewing some bod from Southern Water and it’s the most ridiculous sort of torches and pitchforks type kill the monster interview ever. Instead of a sensible deep discussion about the problems in Hampshire and general issues you would think the poor chap being interviewed had personally decided to fuck up the water system and to start crying and begging forgiveness under the moral battering from Amol.

    When did all journalists become such massive dickheads? Why are they so totally focussed on feels and moralising instead of facts and answers? I know I should stop listening but I’ve been listening for decades and it feels like a case of Today leaving me rather than me leaving Today.

    I’m waiting for Emma Barnett to ask people from Hampshire to hone in with their stories about why they couldn’t shower yesterday is a sign of the continued oppression of WASPI women.

    Stopped listening years ago when it started becoming all "gotchas" and was less about informing people.

    You have to wonder why anyone from a body like Southern Water even appear on such a show when the only aim of the excercise is to try to humiliate them.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,826
    Calling all Latin Scholars

    Someone sent me this. I have forgotten most of my Latin as the last time I studied it was in 1968...

    Tears for Fears .. in Latin....

    https://youtu.be/Xtt78SW-mgg?si=S9PTF5wN92uMxHVN
  • boulay said:

    FFS listening to Amol Rajan interviewing some bod from Southern Water and it’s the most ridiculous sort of torches and pitchforks type kill the monster interview ever. Instead of a sensible deep discussion about the problems in Hampshire and general issues you would think the poor chap being interviewed had personally decided to fuck up the water system and to start crying and begging forgiveness under the moral battering from Amol.

    When did all journalists become such massive dickheads? Why are they so totally focussed on feels and moralising instead of facts and answers? I know I should stop listening but I’ve been listening for decades and it feels like a case of Today leaving me rather than me leaving Today.

    I’m waiting for Emma Barnett to ask people from Hampshire to hone in with their stories about why they couldn’t shower yesterday is a sign of the continued oppression of WASPI women.

    This Southern Water?

    Macquarie’s embattled UK water asset gets go-ahead to jack up bills
    https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/macquarie-s-embattled-uk-water-asset-gets-go-ahead-to-jack-up-bills-20241215-p5kyjx (£££)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,423
    Ukraine claims Russia lost 2,200 troops killed/injured yesterday. I think this is by far the highest figure of the war so far.

    https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:5lplaxalie3qu73vfqb3i37o/post/3ld

    (Yes, I know they are claims...)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,102
    edited December 20

    BBC refuses to play anti-Starmer Christmas song as it hits No 1 in downloads chart
    Freezing This Christmas, by Sir Starmer and the Granny Harmers, lampoons cutting of winter fuel payments for pensioners

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/19/bbc-refuses-to-play-anti-starmer-christmas-song/ (£££)

    The song (based on Mud's Lonely this Christmas) can be heard here:-
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQrvmY5s2mo

    The "official" Christmas number one will be announced this afternoon and is based on sales and streams in the week up to midnight last night.

    I wonder if it will be Rod Stewart that pips Sir Starmer to the top slot?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,423
    Scott_xP said:

    The one thing to remember about US politics and public life is that it’s primarily show business.
    Hence Trump (& Musk).

    https://x.com/_johnnymaga/status/1869807874777432495?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    @acnewsitics

    Maybe it’s just me, but Republicans having two daddies seems kind of woke
    Trump and Musk are two small men who see themselves as giants. It's pathetic, really. But not as pathetic as those who seem to worship the two of them...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,004
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
    Any idea what their track record is like? I would honestly have expected bond yields to fall next year as global interest rates continue to fall and the world economy teeters on recession given Trump's proposed policies. Their forecast is based on an "algorithm" which may be no more than a projection of very recent trends forward.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,004

    Taz said:

    FPT

    The Reeves effect.

    1st August business confidence is at a 3 year high.

    Now it is at a 4 year low.

    This from the same people who claim ‘Truss crashed the economy”

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1869710310409687213?s=61

    Budget has caused economy to stagnate, Bank of England says

    Andrew Bailey downgrades growth forecasts and says businesses are cutting costs and raising prices after Rachel Reeves’s raid on employers’ NI


    The Bank of England has warned that the economy is stagnating after Rachel Reeves’s budget as businesses have responded by raising prices and cutting jobs.

    Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said that there would be a gradual approach to cutting interest rates because of concerns over the impact of tax rises and a higher minimum wage.

    Officials at the Bank downgraded their forecasts and said that they now expect “zero growth” in the final three months of 2024.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/budget-has-caused-economy-to-stagnate-bank-of-england-says-vbmr7gf6d
    Gee, I wonder who saw that coming.

    Slow clap for Ms Reeves.
    Thread header idea: will 2025 deliver the Reeve Recession?
    QTWTAIY
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,351

    BBC refuses to play anti-Starmer Christmas song as it hits No 1 in downloads chart
    Freezing This Christmas, by Sir Starmer and the Granny Harmers, lampoons cutting of winter fuel payments for pensioners

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/19/bbc-refuses-to-play-anti-starmer-christmas-song/ (£££)

    The song (based on Mud's Lonely this Christmas) can be heard here:-
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQrvmY5s2mo

    The "official" Christmas number one will be announced this afternoon and is based on sales and streams in the week up to midnight last night.

    Very professional. A cut above the typical Joe effort, with a few political points scoring bits beyond simply being about WFA. And opaque in origin - if you GoFundMe who really is behind this?

    I said last night that Labour's first few months have been well, well beyond the normal rough and tumble of politics - perhaps a new normal, but clearly different to what has gone before. That this type of (serious) skit exists is perfectly normal rough and tumble, it is just some of the bits round the edges that seem fishy and I wonder how the promotion of this within the algorithms has been achieved.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099

    Scott_xP said:

    The one thing to remember about US politics and public life is that it’s primarily show business.
    Hence Trump (& Musk).

    https://x.com/_johnnymaga/status/1869807874777432495?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    @acnewsitics

    Maybe it’s just me, but Republicans having two daddies seems kind of woke
    Trump and Musk are two small men who see themselves as giants. It's pathetic, really. But not as pathetic as those who seem to worship the two of them...
    What's more interesting is which one is in charge...


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144
    edited December 20
    Foxy said:

    Pretty good figures for independence in that polling, even before ditching the parasites.

    The 2026 Holyrood elections are going to be Starmers first big electoral test. Despite recent years, surely the SNP are going to win a majority.

    The SNP has long thought - probably correctly - that having a Tory government at Westminster was better for their Indy campaign - but for their own electoral prospects they will probably find they are better off with a Labour one. Had Sunak somehow got re-elected, Labour could easily have cleaned up in Scotland.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,004
    Foxy said:

    Pretty good figures for independence in that polling, even before ditching the parasites.

    The 2026 Holyrood elections are going to be Starmers first big electoral test. Despite recent years, surely the SNP are going to win a majority.

    Almost certainly not. The system is heavily weighted against majorities with the list system basically giving the losers a second chance. But they may well retain their plurality. At the moment Scottish politics is a race to the bottom with Labour, the SNP and the Tories all vying for the lead. Hence the comparatively rapid growth of Reform.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,112
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Pretty good figures for independence in that polling, even before ditching the parasites.

    The 2026 Holyrood elections are going to be Starmers first big electoral test. Despite recent years, surely the SNP are going to win a majority.

    Almost certainly not. The system is heavily weighted against majorities with the list system basically giving the losers a second chance. But they may well retain their plurality. At the moment Scottish politics is a race to the bottom with Labour, the SNP and the Tories all vying for the lead. Hence the comparatively rapid growth of Reform.
    I am sure that you know the detail better, but for years the SNP set itself up as the opposition to the English Tories at Westminster, and now can feast on anti-Starmer sentiment too.

    Despite the absolute car crash of the SNP government in recent years they will lead the next government surely.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,166
    boulay said:

    FFS listening to Amol Rajan interviewing some bod from Southern Water and it’s the most ridiculous sort of torches and pitchforks type kill the monster interview ever. Instead of a sensible deep discussion about the problems in Hampshire and general issues you would think the poor chap being interviewed had personally decided to fuck up the water system and to start crying and begging forgiveness under the moral battering from Amol.

    When did all journalists become such massive dickheads? Why are they so totally focussed on feels and moralising instead of facts and answers? I know I should stop listening but I’ve been listening for decades and it feels like a case of Today leaving me rather than me leaving Today.

    I’m waiting for Emma Barnett to ask people from Hampshire to hone in with their stories about why they couldn’t shower yesterday is a sign of the continued oppression of WASPI women.

    Given the corporate bullshit spin the management of water companies subject us to, a mild roasting on R4 is entirely deserved.
    A more forensic grilling would of course be better, but I'm shedding few tears for the "poor chap".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,516
    A very good figure for Yes, but the same poll gives a big lead for Unionist parties over Nationalist ones, suggesting it’s just one of those odd results that comes up occasionally.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,325
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Pretty good figures for independence in that polling, even before ditching the parasites.

    The 2026 Holyrood elections are going to be Starmers first big electoral test. Despite recent years, surely the SNP are going to win a majority.

    Almost certainly not. The system is heavily weighted against majorities with the list system basically giving the losers a second chance. But they may well retain their plurality. At the moment Scottish politics is a race to the bottom with Labour, the SNP and the Tories all vying for the lead. Hence the comparatively rapid growth of Reform.
    I am sure that you know the detail better, but for years the SNP set itself up as the opposition to the English Tories at Westminster, and now can feast on anti-Starmer sentiment too.

    Despite the absolute car crash of the SNP government in recent years they will lead the next government surely.
    The tone is very different now. Different people in charge. Much more bank manager vibe than social justice warrior.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934

    Ukraine claims Russia lost 2,200 troops killed/injured yesterday. I think this is by far the highest figure of the war so far.

    https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:5lplaxalie3qu73vfqb3i37o/post/3ld

    (Yes, I know they are claims...)

    Might turn out to be 700 Russians and 1500 North Koreans. Poor buggers have been looking up at grenade-dropping drones going "Oooh - what's that?"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,004
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Pretty good figures for independence in that polling, even before ditching the parasites.

    The 2026 Holyrood elections are going to be Starmers first big electoral test. Despite recent years, surely the SNP are going to win a majority.

    Almost certainly not. The system is heavily weighted against majorities with the list system basically giving the losers a second chance. But they may well retain their plurality. At the moment Scottish politics is a race to the bottom with Labour, the SNP and the Tories all vying for the lead. Hence the comparatively rapid growth of Reform.
    I am sure that you know the detail better, but for years the SNP set itself up as the opposition to the English Tories at Westminster, and now can feast on anti-Starmer sentiment too.

    Despite the absolute car crash of the SNP government in recent years they will lead the next government surely.
    Oh they may well do but not with a majority. They will struggle to get a majority even with their little green helpers.

    Scottish politics makes UK politics look good right now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,478
    edited December 20
    Reform will surge in Scotland just as they are in Wales and northern England. The populist wave is still growing, it is only now just crashing over Hadrian’s Wall
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,956
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
    Any idea what their track record is like? I would honestly have expected bond yields to fall next year as global interest rates continue to fall and the world economy teeters on recession given Trump's proposed policies. Their forecast is based on an "algorithm" which may be no more than a projection of very recent trends forward.
    I think they are just an aggregator who pull data from other sites. Trading Economics is forecasting 4.35% in 12 months time.

    Same here but will global interest rates continue to fall given the inflationary pressures.

    The fed is alot more hawkish after the meeting this week.

    Could we see a rise in interest rates now ?

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1869829152347664875.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,478
    edited December 20
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The one thing to remember about US politics and public life is that it’s primarily show business.
    Hence Trump (& Musk).

    https://x.com/_johnnymaga/status/1869807874777432495?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    @acnewsitics

    Maybe it’s just me, but Republicans having two daddies seems kind of woke
    Trump and Musk are two small men who see themselves as giants. It's pathetic, really. But not as pathetic as those who seem to worship the two of them...
    What's more interesting is which one is in charge...


    I believe AI images merit a ban. If that has been changed - great! Can the mods tell us?

    NB: I don’t want you banned. I just want to know the rules
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    Mr. Leon, bit modern for me but isn't Hadrian's Wall entirely in England?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,166
    .

    Taz said:

    FPT

    The Reeves effect.

    1st August business confidence is at a 3 year high.

    Now it is at a 4 year low.

    This from the same people who claim ‘Truss crashed the economy”

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1869710310409687213?s=61

    Budget has caused economy to stagnate, Bank of England says

    Andrew Bailey downgrades growth forecasts and says businesses are cutting costs and raising prices after Rachel Reeves’s raid on employers’ NI


    The Bank of England has warned that the economy is stagnating after Rachel Reeves’s budget as businesses have responded by raising prices and cutting jobs.

    Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said that there would be a gradual approach to cutting interest rates because of concerns over the impact of tax rises and a higher minimum wage.

    Officials at the Bank downgraded their forecasts and said that they now expect “zero growth” in the final three months of 2024.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/budget-has-caused-economy-to-stagnate-bank-of-england-says-vbmr7gf6d
    UK car production fell to the lowest level since 1980 last month. The economy faces headwinds well beyond those generated by the dismal budget.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,112
    Sean_F said:

    A very good figure for Yes, but the same poll gives a big lead for Unionist parties over Nationalist ones, suggesting it’s just one of those odd results that comes up occasionally.

    Surely just shows that these parties are less unionists at the grassroots than their leadership is?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,004

    Calling all Latin Scholars

    Someone sent me this. I have forgotten most of my Latin as the last time I studied it was in 1968...

    Tears for Fears .. in Latin....

    https://youtu.be/Xtt78SW-mgg?si=S9PTF5wN92uMxHVN

    1977 for me. I have a book somewhere called Winnie ille Pooh. It was mildly amusing when I bought it a couple of decades ago.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,166
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The one thing to remember about US politics and public life is that it’s primarily show business.
    Hence Trump (& Musk).

    https://x.com/_johnnymaga/status/1869807874777432495?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    @acnewsitics

    Maybe it’s just me, but Republicans having two daddies seems kind of woke
    Trump and Musk are two small men who see themselves as giants. It's pathetic, really. But not as pathetic as those who seem to worship the two of them...
    What's more interesting is which one is in charge...


    I believe AI images merit a ban. If that has been changed - great! Can the mods tell us?

    NB: I don’t want you banned. I just want to know the rules
    Yes, you can tell it's fake, as Trump can't stand up as straight as that.
  • DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Pretty good figures for independence in that polling, even before ditching the parasites.

    The 2026 Holyrood elections are going to be Starmers first big electoral test. Despite recent years, surely the SNP are going to win a majority.

    Almost certainly not. The system is heavily weighted against majorities with the list system basically giving the losers a second chance. But they may well retain their plurality. At the moment Scottish politics is a race to the bottom with Labour, the SNP and the Tories all vying for the lead. Hence the comparatively rapid growth of Reform.
    I am sure that you know the detail better, but for years the SNP set itself up as the opposition to the English Tories at Westminster, and now can feast on anti-Starmer sentiment too.

    Despite the absolute car crash of the SNP government in recent years they will lead the next government surely.
    Oh they may well do but not with a majority. They will struggle to get a majority even with their little green helpers.

    Scottish politics makes UK politics look good right now.
    There won't be any little Green helpers - their vote always collapses when the hard left vote falls off slightly
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,141
    On topic, the Royals are just another thing to be added to the growing pile of stuff that makes the average Scot think what the fuck has this got to do with me.

    Some others (not a definitive list):

    Brexit
    The Tory party
    Small boats
    Farage
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English cricket team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English football team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English rugby team
    (See also the women’s versions of these and whatever stupid name the marketing guys have come up with for them)
    The nonce-tolerant Church of England
    The House of Lords
    Eastenders
    The sewage ridden waterways of England
    HS2
    England’s energy poverty
    GAVIN AND FCKNG STACEY

    All of these topics are of course extensively and endlessly amplified by the state broadcaster. Only this morning I’ve learned via several news bulletins that Wills & Kate did not attend the traditional pre Christmas lunch at the Palace.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,325
    Leon said:

    Reform will surge in Scotland just as they are in Wales and northern England. The populist wave is still growing, it is only now just crashing over Hadrian’s Wall

    You mean, it will affect Newcastle next?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,112
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
    Any idea what their track record is like? I would honestly have expected bond yields to fall next year as global interest rates continue to fall and the world economy teeters on recession given Trump's proposed policies. Their forecast is based on an "algorithm" which may be no more than a projection of very recent trends forward.
    I think they are just an aggregator who pull data from other sites. Trading Economics is forecasting 4.35% in 12 months time.

    Same here but will global interest rates continue to fall given the inflationary pressures.

    The fed is alot more hawkish after the meeting this week.

    Could we see a rise in interest rates now ?

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1869829152347664875.html
    While clearly it will take some time for people to adapt, the return of positive real interest rates is a good thing. We have had 15 years of effective negative interest rates that penalise savers and those buying annuities with their pension pots.

    Low interest rates are not a a good thing for everyone.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,004
    Leon said:

    Reform will surge in Scotland just as they are in Wales and northern England. The populist wave is still growing, it is only now just crashing over Hadrian’s Wall

    Its more a case that the SNP, Labour and the Tories are all utter arseholes the Lib Dems are just too boring for words and the Greens are batshit insane. If you are asked for a voting preference in Scotland these days you are scratching around a bit.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704

    On topic, the Royals are just another thing to be added to the growing pile of stuff that makes the average Scot think what the fuck has this got to do with me.

    Some others (not a definitive list):

    Brexit
    The Tory party
    Small boats
    Farage
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English cricket team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English football team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English rugby team
    (See also the women’s versions of these and whatever stupid name the marketing guys have come up with for them)
    The nonce-tolerant Church of England
    The House of Lords
    Eastenders
    The sewage ridden waterways of England
    HS2
    England’s energy poverty
    GAVIN AND FCKNG STACEY

    All of these topics are of course extensively and endlessly amplified by the state broadcaster. Only this morning I’ve learned via several news bulletins that Wills & Kate did not attend the traditional pre Christmas lunch at the Palace.

    To be fair, most of those are irrelevant south of the border. I mean, who watches Eastenders or has a Tory MP anymore?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,166
    On topic, how large was the polled 'panel' ?
    And what was the number for the undecideds who were excluded ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,478

    On topic, the Royals are just another thing to be added to the growing pile of stuff that makes the average Scot think what the fuck has this got to do with me.

    Some others (not a definitive list):

    Brexit
    The Tory party
    Small boats
    Farage
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English cricket team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English football team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English rugby team
    (See also the women’s versions of these and whatever stupid name the marketing guys have come up with for them)
    The nonce-tolerant Church of England
    The House of Lords
    Eastenders
    The sewage ridden waterways of England
    HS2
    England’s energy poverty
    GAVIN AND FCKNG STACEY

    All of these topics are of course extensively and endlessly amplified by the state broadcaster. Only this morning I’ve learned via several news bulletins that Wills & Kate did not attend the traditional pre Christmas lunch at the Palace.

    I haven’t regularly watched or listened to BBC news in YEARS. Why the fuck are you?

    It’s mildly Woke pap aimed at low-watt morons

    And despite our many stramashes I’ve never seen you as dumb; quite the opposite
  • Saw some blossom yesterday.

    I cannot remember ever seeing blossom before the new year even starts.

    I wonder if the snow inn November followed by warmer weather now has triggered it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,004
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Taz said:

    FPT

    The Reeves effect.

    1st August business confidence is at a 3 year high.

    Now it is at a 4 year low.

    This from the same people who claim ‘Truss crashed the economy”

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1869710310409687213?s=61

    Budget has caused economy to stagnate, Bank of England says

    Andrew Bailey downgrades growth forecasts and says businesses are cutting costs and raising prices after Rachel Reeves’s raid on employers’ NI


    The Bank of England has warned that the economy is stagnating after Rachel Reeves’s budget as businesses have responded by raising prices and cutting jobs.

    Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said that there would be a gradual approach to cutting interest rates because of concerns over the impact of tax rises and a higher minimum wage.

    Officials at the Bank downgraded their forecasts and said that they now expect “zero growth” in the final three months of 2024.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/budget-has-caused-economy-to-stagnate-bank-of-england-says-vbmr7gf6d
    UK car production fell to the lowest level since 1980 last month. The economy faces headwinds well beyond those generated by the dismal budget.
    The headwinds are, by and large, not the government's fault. Their response to them is. Reeves said before the election that every policy would be tested against the criteria of whether it was good for growth. And then did the opposite. I think she is going to drive us into a mild technical recession which will make the terrible state of the public books (despite today's modest improvement on the month) even worse.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,325
    edited December 20
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Pretty good figures for independence in that polling, even before ditching the parasites.

    The 2026 Holyrood elections are going to be Starmers first big electoral test. Despite recent years, surely the SNP are going to win a majority.

    Almost certainly not. The system is heavily weighted against majorities with the list system basically giving the losers a second chance. But they may well retain their plurality. At the moment Scottish politics is a race to the bottom with Labour, the SNP and the Tories all vying for the lead. Hence the comparatively rapid growth of Reform.
    I am sure that you know the detail better, but for years the SNP set itself up as the opposition to the English Tories at Westminster, and now can feast on anti-Starmer sentiment too.

    Despite the absolute car crash of the SNP government in recent years they will lead the next government surely.
    At the moment, also, Anas Sarwar and Jackie Baillie almost seem to be positioning Slab as anti-SKS Labour.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/24808326.labours-jackie-baillie-blasts-uk-government-waspi-decision/

    But remember that - unlike the Tories and LDs - there *is no separate Scottish Labour Party*: it's only a loophole in electoral law, deliberately inserted by a Labour administration, that allows them to claim they are on the ballot paper. And in any case pensions are a strictly reserved matter, so none of their business as MSPs - even if it is as Party members. How much of this is also deliberate obfuscation and an attempt to mislead the voters remains to be seen.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,513
    Leon said:

    Reform will surge in Scotland just as they are in Wales and northern England. The populist wave is still growing, it is only now just crashing over Hadrian’s Wall

    Hadrian’s Wall is in England pal
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,166
    US drug pricing problems are greatly exacerbated by their insurance system.

    Paying cash for generic gleevec ~$80-$90

    Use Aetna ? - $1044 - $2559

    https://x.com/anish_koka/status/1869936625465135233
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,513
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
    Any idea what their track record is like? I would honestly have expected bond yields to fall next year as global interest rates continue to fall and the world economy teeters on recession given Trump's proposed policies. Their forecast is based on an "algorithm" which may be no more than a projection of very recent trends forward.
    I think they are just an aggregator who pull data from other sites. Trading Economics is forecasting 4.35% in 12 months time.

    Same here but will global interest rates continue to fall given the inflationary pressures.

    The fed is alot more hawkish after the meeting this week.

    Could we see a rise in interest rates now ?

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1869829152347664875.html
    While clearly it will take some time for people to adapt, the return of positive real interest rates is a good thing. We have had 15 years of effective negative interest rates that penalise savers and those buying annuities with their pension pots.

    Low interest rates are not a a good thing for everyone.
    Because savers and those with pension pots are the priority of course
  • The US House of Representatives has voted against a Donald Trump-backed funding measure, bringing a government shutdown this weekend a step closer.

    A revised spending plan failed to reach the two-thirds majority needed in the lower chamber of Congress, with 38 Republicans voting against the bill on Thursday night, defying the president-elect.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz6l9e3jq7xo

    If Trump cannot even get his spending plan passed I don't see much chance of David Herdson's fear of Trump being appointed God-Emperor happening.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,760
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Taz said:

    FPT

    The Reeves effect.

    1st August business confidence is at a 3 year high.

    Now it is at a 4 year low.

    This from the same people who claim ‘Truss crashed the economy”

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1869710310409687213?s=61

    Budget has caused economy to stagnate, Bank of England says

    Andrew Bailey downgrades growth forecasts and says businesses are cutting costs and raising prices after Rachel Reeves’s raid on employers’ NI


    The Bank of England has warned that the economy is stagnating after Rachel Reeves’s budget as businesses have responded by raising prices and cutting jobs.

    Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said that there would be a gradual approach to cutting interest rates because of concerns over the impact of tax rises and a higher minimum wage.

    Officials at the Bank downgraded their forecasts and said that they now expect “zero growth” in the final three months of 2024.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/budget-has-caused-economy-to-stagnate-bank-of-england-says-vbmr7gf6d
    UK car production fell to the lowest level since 1980 last month. The economy faces headwinds well beyond those generated by the dismal budget.
    The UK only has 3.5 volume manufacturers who are all facing headwinds. JLR LOL. Nissan, right in the shit with a mediocre product line, only redemeed by a very effective dealer network. Mini, moved the brand up a segment where competition is stiffer and don't make the BEV models in the UK. Stellantis might get off their deathbed in the UK if their BEV vans are cheap enough - product quality being utterly irrelevant in that segment.

    Traded the M1000RR for a Bimota KB988. Bought a rusty E30 318is for its minty interior that's going in my S54 engined Bauer E30. All the lambda sensors on the Tributo are dead. That's my fleet update.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,325
    Jonathan said:

    On topic, the Royals are just another thing to be added to the growing pile of stuff that makes the average Scot think what the fuck has this got to do with me.

    Some others (not a definitive list):

    Brexit
    The Tory party
    Small boats
    Farage
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English cricket team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English football team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English rugby team
    (See also the women’s versions of these and whatever stupid name the marketing guys have come up with for them)
    The nonce-tolerant Church of England
    The House of Lords
    Eastenders
    The sewage ridden waterways of England
    HS2
    England’s energy poverty
    GAVIN AND FCKNG STACEY

    All of these topics are of course extensively and endlessly amplified by the state broadcaster. Only this morning I’ve learned via several news bulletins that Wills & Kate did not attend the traditional pre Christmas lunch at the Palace.

    To be fair, most of those are irrelevant south of the border. I mean, who watches Eastenders or has a Tory MP anymore?
    But have a look at PB passim. With the possible exception of Eastenders, and the addition of London Underground's naming schemes, electric jamjars, and some industrial archaeology other than HS2, it's actually quite an accurate synopsis of perennial obsessions.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,004

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Pretty good figures for independence in that polling, even before ditching the parasites.

    The 2026 Holyrood elections are going to be Starmers first big electoral test. Despite recent years, surely the SNP are going to win a majority.

    Almost certainly not. The system is heavily weighted against majorities with the list system basically giving the losers a second chance. But they may well retain their plurality. At the moment Scottish politics is a race to the bottom with Labour, the SNP and the Tories all vying for the lead. Hence the comparatively rapid growth of Reform.
    I am sure that you know the detail better, but for years the SNP set itself up as the opposition to the English Tories at Westminster, and now can feast on anti-Starmer sentiment too.

    Despite the absolute car crash of the SNP government in recent years they will lead the next government surely.
    Oh they may well do but not with a majority. They will struggle to get a majority even with their little green helpers.

    Scottish politics makes UK politics look good right now.
    There won't be any little Green helpers - their vote always collapses when the hard left vote falls off slightly
    Oh I wish.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,403
    Q: Does a tax code of 1145L does that mean 40% rate at £49150 of taxable income ?

    I assume it just brings the thresholds down in line with PA ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,325
    Leon said:

    On topic, the Royals are just another thing to be added to the growing pile of stuff that makes the average Scot think what the fuck has this got to do with me.

    Some others (not a definitive list):

    Brexit
    The Tory party
    Small boats
    Farage
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English cricket team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English football team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English rugby team
    (See also the women’s versions of these and whatever stupid name the marketing guys have come up with for them)
    The nonce-tolerant Church of England
    The House of Lords
    Eastenders
    The sewage ridden waterways of England
    HS2
    England’s energy poverty
    GAVIN AND FCKNG STACEY

    All of these topics are of course extensively and endlessly amplified by the state broadcaster. Only this morning I’ve learned via several news bulletins that Wills & Kate did not attend the traditional pre Christmas lunch at the Palace.

    I haven’t regularly watched or listened to BBC news in YEARS. Why the fuck are you?

    It’s mildly Woke pap aimed at low-watt morons

    And despite our many stramashes I’ve never seen you as dumb; quite the opposite
    Ever watched GB News?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,478
    Interesting angle on Brexit


    It was more damaging for the EU than the UK. The loss of UK pragmatism and liberalism has led directly to the EU’s self defeating regulatory bonanza, destroying innovation and crushing flexibility

    https://www.eurointelligence.com/column/what-brexit-did-to-the-eu
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,110
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
    Any idea what their track record is like? I would honestly have expected bond yields to fall next year as global interest rates continue to fall and the world economy teeters on recession given Trump's proposed policies. Their forecast is based on an "algorithm" which may be no more than a projection of very recent trends forward.
    I think they are just an aggregator who pull data from other sites. Trading Economics is forecasting 4.35% in 12 months time.

    Same here but will global interest rates continue to fall given the inflationary pressures.

    The fed is alot more hawkish after the meeting this week.

    Could we see a rise in interest rates now ?

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1869829152347664875.html
    While clearly it will take some time for people to adapt, the return of positive real interest rates is a good thing. We have had 15 years of effective negative interest rates that penalise savers and those buying annuities with their pension pots.

    Low interest rates are not a a good thing for everyone.
    Savers have the option of investing in something other than cash if they want higher returns.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,478
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, the Royals are just another thing to be added to the growing pile of stuff that makes the average Scot think what the fuck has this got to do with me.

    Some others (not a definitive list):

    Brexit
    The Tory party
    Small boats
    Farage
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English cricket team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English football team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English rugby team
    (See also the women’s versions of these and whatever stupid name the marketing guys have come up with for them)
    The nonce-tolerant Church of England
    The House of Lords
    Eastenders
    The sewage ridden waterways of England
    HS2
    England’s energy poverty
    GAVIN AND FCKNG STACEY

    All of these topics are of course extensively and endlessly amplified by the state broadcaster. Only this morning I’ve learned via several news bulletins that Wills & Kate did not attend the traditional pre Christmas lunch at the Palace.

    I haven’t regularly watched or listened to BBC news in YEARS. Why the fuck are you?

    It’s mildly Woke pap aimed at low-watt morons

    And despite our many stramashes I’ve never seen you as dumb; quite the opposite
    Ever watched GB News?
    Literally, never
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,325
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, the Royals are just another thing to be added to the growing pile of stuff that makes the average Scot think what the fuck has this got to do with me.

    Some others (not a definitive list):

    Brexit
    The Tory party
    Small boats
    Farage
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English cricket team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English football team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English rugby team
    (See also the women’s versions of these and whatever stupid name the marketing guys have come up with for them)
    The nonce-tolerant Church of England
    The House of Lords
    Eastenders
    The sewage ridden waterways of England
    HS2
    England’s energy poverty
    GAVIN AND FCKNG STACEY

    All of these topics are of course extensively and endlessly amplified by the state broadcaster. Only this morning I’ve learned via several news bulletins that Wills & Kate did not attend the traditional pre Christmas lunch at the Palace.

    I haven’t regularly watched or listened to BBC news in YEARS. Why the fuck are you?

    It’s mildly Woke pap aimed at low-watt morons

    And despite our many stramashes I’ve never seen you as dumb; quite the opposite
    Ever watched GB News?
    Literally, never
    Me neither ...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,325
    Ratters said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
    Any idea what their track record is like? I would honestly have expected bond yields to fall next year as global interest rates continue to fall and the world economy teeters on recession given Trump's proposed policies. Their forecast is based on an "algorithm" which may be no more than a projection of very recent trends forward.
    I think they are just an aggregator who pull data from other sites. Trading Economics is forecasting 4.35% in 12 months time.

    Same here but will global interest rates continue to fall given the inflationary pressures.

    The fed is alot more hawkish after the meeting this week.

    Could we see a rise in interest rates now ?

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1869829152347664875.html
    While clearly it will take some time for people to adapt, the return of positive real interest rates is a good thing. We have had 15 years of effective negative interest rates that penalise savers and those buying annuities with their pension pots.

    Low interest rates are not a a good thing for everyone.
    Savers have the option of investing in something other than cash if they want higher returns.
    And risks.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    On topic, the Royals are just another thing to be added to the growing pile of stuff that makes the average Scot think what the fuck has this got to do with me.

    Some others (not a definitive list):

    Brexit
    The Tory party
    Small boats
    Farage
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English cricket team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English football team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English rugby team
    (See also the women’s versions of these and whatever stupid name the marketing guys have come up with for them)
    The nonce-tolerant Church of England
    The House of Lords
    Eastenders
    The sewage ridden waterways of England
    HS2
    England’s energy poverty
    GAVIN AND FCKNG STACEY

    All of these topics are of course extensively and endlessly amplified by the state broadcaster. Only this morning I’ve learned via several news bulletins that Wills & Kate did not attend the traditional pre Christmas lunch at the Palace.

    To be fair, most of those are irrelevant south of the border. I mean, who watches Eastenders or has a Tory MP anymore?
    But have a look at PB passim. With the possible exception of Eastenders, and the addition of London Underground's naming schemes, electric jamjars, and some industrial archaeology other than HS2, it's actually quite an accurate synopsis of perennial obsessions.
    Not sure it is these days. We all live in our personalised bubbles.

    The algorithm filters it out, unless of course it amplifies the rage. Perhaps you see more of this stuff north of the border precisely because it pisses you off.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,112

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
    Any idea what their track record is like? I would honestly have expected bond yields to fall next year as global interest rates continue to fall and the world economy teeters on recession given Trump's proposed policies. Their forecast is based on an "algorithm" which may be no more than a projection of very recent trends forward.
    I think they are just an aggregator who pull data from other sites. Trading Economics is forecasting 4.35% in 12 months time.

    Same here but will global interest rates continue to fall given the inflationary pressures.

    The fed is alot more hawkish after the meeting this week.

    Could we see a rise in interest rates now ?

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1869829152347664875.html
    While clearly it will take some time for people to adapt, the return of positive real interest rates is a good thing. We have had 15 years of effective negative interest rates that penalise savers and those buying annuities with their pension pots.

    Low interest rates are not a a good thing for everyone.
    Because savers and those with pension pots are the priority of course
    It's just a return to historic norm. It's the last 15 years that have been the aberration.

    Savers should get a real return, and the return of decent annuity rates are a good thing for pension schemes.

    More saving and less consumption is good for the country and the planet.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,125
    edited December 20
    Leon said:

    Interesting angle on Brexit


    It was more damaging for the EU than the UK. The loss of UK pragmatism and liberalism has led directly to the EU’s self defeating regulatory bonanza, destroying innovation and crushing flexibility

    https://www.eurointelligence.com/column/what-brexit-did-to-the-eu

    I think the real foreign winner from Brexit was ultimately Ukraine.

    Brexit (eventually) brought Boris to power, and he was Ukraine's biggest major supporter at the critical time of the war.

    It's a counterfactual of course I can't see Cameron or Osborne or whoever rallying the free world as well as Boris did in the first year of the war, especially given how they acquiesced in Europe's spinelessness after the first invasion in 2014.

    Anyway, as Starmer has shown in the last six months, we don't need the EU - we're more than capable of destroying innovation and crushing flexibility on our own.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,779
    edited December 20
    Ratters said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
    Any idea what their track record is like? I would honestly have expected bond yields to fall next year as global interest rates continue to fall and the world economy teeters on recession given Trump's proposed policies. Their forecast is based on an "algorithm" which may be no more than a projection of very recent trends forward.
    I think they are just an aggregator who pull data from other sites. Trading Economics is forecasting 4.35% in 12 months time.

    Same here but will global interest rates continue to fall given the inflationary pressures.

    The fed is alot more hawkish after the meeting this week.

    Could we see a rise in interest rates now ?

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1869829152347664875.html
    While clearly it will take some time for people to adapt, the return of positive real interest rates is a good thing. We have had 15 years of effective negative interest rates that penalise savers and those buying annuities with their pension pots.

    Low interest rates are not a a good thing for everyone.
    Savers have the option of investing in something other than cash if they want higher returns.
    Which leads to asset bubbles, especially in housing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,325
    Jonathan said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    On topic, the Royals are just another thing to be added to the growing pile of stuff that makes the average Scot think what the fuck has this got to do with me.

    Some others (not a definitive list):

    Brexit
    The Tory party
    Small boats
    Farage
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English cricket team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English football team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English rugby team
    (See also the women’s versions of these and whatever stupid name the marketing guys have come up with for them)
    The nonce-tolerant Church of England
    The House of Lords
    Eastenders
    The sewage ridden waterways of England
    HS2
    England’s energy poverty
    GAVIN AND FCKNG STACEY

    All of these topics are of course extensively and endlessly amplified by the state broadcaster. Only this morning I’ve learned via several news bulletins that Wills & Kate did not attend the traditional pre Christmas lunch at the Palace.

    To be fair, most of those are irrelevant south of the border. I mean, who watches Eastenders or has a Tory MP anymore?
    But have a look at PB passim. With the possible exception of Eastenders, and the addition of London Underground's naming schemes, electric jamjars, and some industrial archaeology other than HS2, it's actually quite an accurate synopsis of perennial obsessions.
    Not sure it is these days. We all live in our personalised bubbles.

    The algorithm filters it out, unless of course it amplifies the rage. Perhaps you see more of this stuff north of the border precisely because it pisses you off.
    Not if one doesn't use social media with filter algorithms. I certainly don't.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    edited December 20
    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    On topic, the Royals are just another thing to be added to the growing pile of stuff that makes the average Scot think what the fuck has this got to do with me.

    Some others (not a definitive list):

    Brexit
    The Tory party
    Small boats
    Farage
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English cricket team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English football team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English rugby team
    (See also the women’s versions of these and whatever stupid name the marketing guys have come up with for them)
    The nonce-tolerant Church of England
    The House of Lords
    Eastenders
    The sewage ridden waterways of England
    HS2
    England’s energy poverty
    GAVIN AND FCKNG STACEY

    All of these topics are of course extensively and endlessly amplified by the state broadcaster. Only this morning I’ve learned via several news bulletins that Wills & Kate did not attend the traditional pre Christmas lunch at the Palace.

    To be fair, most of those are irrelevant south of the border. I mean, who watches Eastenders or has a Tory MP anymore?
    But have a look at PB passim. With the possible exception of Eastenders, and the addition of London Underground's naming schemes, electric jamjars, and some industrial archaeology other than HS2, it's actually quite an accurate synopsis of perennial obsessions.
    Not sure it is these days. We all live in our personalised bubbles.

    The algorithm filters it out, unless of course it amplifies the rage. Perhaps you see more of this stuff north of the border precisely because it pisses you off.
    Not if one doesn't use social media with filter algorithms. I certainly don't.
    Alas you can’t escape, where do you think journalists, politicians and folks on PB and in the pub get their material. We are all slaves to the algorithm
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,004

    Ukraine claims Russia lost 2,200 troops killed/injured yesterday. I think this is by far the highest figure of the war so far.

    https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:5lplaxalie3qu73vfqb3i37o/post/3ld

    (Yes, I know they are claims...)

    Might turn out to be 700 Russians and 1500 North Koreans. Poor buggers have been looking up at grenade-dropping drones going "Oooh - what's that?"
    I really shouldn't find that funny but LOL.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,513
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
    Any idea what their track record is like? I would honestly have expected bond yields to fall next year as global interest rates continue to fall and the world economy teeters on recession given Trump's proposed policies. Their forecast is based on an "algorithm" which may be no more than a projection of very recent trends forward.
    I think they are just an aggregator who pull data from other sites. Trading Economics is forecasting 4.35% in 12 months time.

    Same here but will global interest rates continue to fall given the inflationary pressures.

    The fed is alot more hawkish after the meeting this week.

    Could we see a rise in interest rates now ?

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1869829152347664875.html
    While clearly it will take some time for people to adapt, the return of positive real interest rates is a good thing. We have had 15 years of effective negative interest rates that penalise savers and those buying annuities with their pension pots.

    Low interest rates are not a a good thing for everyone.
    Because savers and those with pension pots are the priority of course
    It's just a return to historic norm. It's the last 15 years that have been the aberration.

    Savers should get a real return, and the return of decent annuity rates are a good thing for pension schemes.

    More saving and less consumption is good for the country and the planet.
    That may be true but it fucks Millennials. Again.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,886
    Jonathan said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    On topic, the Royals are just another thing to be added to the growing pile of stuff that makes the average Scot think what the fuck has this got to do with me.

    Some others (not a definitive list):

    Brexit
    The Tory party
    Small boats
    Farage
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English cricket team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English football team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English rugby team
    (See also the women’s versions of these and whatever stupid name the marketing guys have come up with for them)
    The nonce-tolerant Church of England
    The House of Lords
    Eastenders
    The sewage ridden waterways of England
    HS2
    England’s energy poverty
    GAVIN AND FCKNG STACEY

    All of these topics are of course extensively and endlessly amplified by the state broadcaster. Only this morning I’ve learned via several news bulletins that Wills & Kate did not attend the traditional pre Christmas lunch at the Palace.

    To be fair, most of those are irrelevant south of the border. I mean, who watches Eastenders or has a Tory MP anymore?
    But have a look at PB passim. With the possible exception of Eastenders, and the addition of London Underground's naming schemes, electric jamjars, and some industrial archaeology other than HS2, it's actually quite an accurate synopsis of perennial obsessions.
    Not sure it is these days. We all live in our personalised bubbles.

    The algorithm filters it out, unless of course it amplifies the rage. Perhaps you see more of this stuff north of the border precisely because it pisses you off.
    Not if one doesn't use social media with filter algorithms. I certainly don't.
    Alas you can’t escape, where do you think journalists, politicians and folks on PB and in the pub their material. We are all slaves to the algorithm
    Channelling your inner Grace Jones, I like that.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,513

    Ratters said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
    Any idea what their track record is like? I would honestly have expected bond yields to fall next year as global interest rates continue to fall and the world economy teeters on recession given Trump's proposed policies. Their forecast is based on an "algorithm" which may be no more than a projection of very recent trends forward.
    I think they are just an aggregator who pull data from other sites. Trading Economics is forecasting 4.35% in 12 months time.

    Same here but will global interest rates continue to fall given the inflationary pressures.

    The fed is alot more hawkish after the meeting this week.

    Could we see a rise in interest rates now ?

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1869829152347664875.html
    While clearly it will take some time for people to adapt, the return of positive real interest rates is a good thing. We have had 15 years of effective negative interest rates that penalise savers and those buying annuities with their pension pots.

    Low interest rates are not a a good thing for everyone.
    Savers have the option of investing in something other than cash if they want higher returns.
    Which leads to asset bubbles, especially in housing.
    Housing prices are not coming down despite higher interest rates. I wonder why?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,325
    Jonathan said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    On topic, the Royals are just another thing to be added to the growing pile of stuff that makes the average Scot think what the fuck has this got to do with me.

    Some others (not a definitive list):

    Brexit
    The Tory party
    Small boats
    Farage
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English cricket team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English football team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English rugby team
    (See also the women’s versions of these and whatever stupid name the marketing guys have come up with for them)
    The nonce-tolerant Church of England
    The House of Lords
    Eastenders
    The sewage ridden waterways of England
    HS2
    England’s energy poverty
    GAVIN AND FCKNG STACEY

    All of these topics are of course extensively and endlessly amplified by the state broadcaster. Only this morning I’ve learned via several news bulletins that Wills & Kate did not attend the traditional pre Christmas lunch at the Palace.

    To be fair, most of those are irrelevant south of the border. I mean, who watches Eastenders or has a Tory MP anymore?
    But have a look at PB passim. With the possible exception of Eastenders, and the addition of London Underground's naming schemes, electric jamjars, and some industrial archaeology other than HS2, it's actually quite an accurate synopsis of perennial obsessions.
    Not sure it is these days. We all live in our personalised bubbles.

    The algorithm filters it out, unless of course it amplifies the rage. Perhaps you see more of this stuff north of the border precisely because it pisses you off.
    Not if one doesn't use social media with filter algorithms. I certainly don't.
    Alas you can’t escape, where do you think journalists, politicians and folks on PB and in the pub their material. We are all slaves to the algorithm
    But that's the overall background - not something personalised to me, say. Which, speaking more generally, is exactly TUD's point.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,325
    edited December 20

    Ratters said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
    Any idea what their track record is like? I would honestly have expected bond yields to fall next year as global interest rates continue to fall and the world economy teeters on recession given Trump's proposed policies. Their forecast is based on an "algorithm" which may be no more than a projection of very recent trends forward.
    I think they are just an aggregator who pull data from other sites. Trading Economics is forecasting 4.35% in 12 months time.

    Same here but will global interest rates continue to fall given the inflationary pressures.

    The fed is alot more hawkish after the meeting this week.

    Could we see a rise in interest rates now ?

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1869829152347664875.html
    While clearly it will take some time for people to adapt, the return of positive real interest rates is a good thing. We have had 15 years of effective negative interest rates that penalise savers and those buying annuities with their pension pots.

    Low interest rates are not a a good thing for everyone.
    Savers have the option of investing in something other than cash if they want higher returns.
    Which leads to asset bubbles, especially in housing.
    Housing prices are not coming down despite higher interest rates. I wonder why?
    Aren't they going down in real terms? There's been quite a bit of inflation in recent years. So 20% or whatever of your mortgage has evaporated just like that. (Just trying to cheer you up, but it's also a valid point.)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    Carnyx said:

    Jonathan said:

    On topic, the Royals are just another thing to be added to the growing pile of stuff that makes the average Scot think what the fuck has this got to do with me.

    Some others (not a definitive list):

    Brexit
    The Tory party
    Small boats
    Farage
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English cricket team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English football team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English rugby team
    (See also the women’s versions of these and whatever stupid name the marketing guys have come up with for them)
    The nonce-tolerant Church of England
    The House of Lords
    Eastenders
    The sewage ridden waterways of England
    HS2
    England’s energy poverty
    GAVIN AND FCKNG STACEY

    All of these topics are of course extensively and endlessly amplified by the state broadcaster. Only this morning I’ve learned via several news bulletins that Wills & Kate did not attend the traditional pre Christmas lunch at the Palace.

    To be fair, most of those are irrelevant south of the border. I mean, who watches Eastenders or has a Tory MP anymore?
    But have a look at PB passim. With the possible exception of Eastenders, and the addition of London Underground's naming schemes, electric jamjars, and some industrial archaeology other than HS2, it's actually quite an accurate synopsis of perennial obsessions.
    Not sure it is these days. We all live in our personalised bubbles.

    The algorithm filters it out, unless of course it amplifies the rage. Perhaps you see more of this stuff north of the border precisely because it pisses you off.
    Not if one doesn't use social media with filter algorithms. I certainly don't.
    Alas you can’t escape, where do you think journalists, politicians and folks on PB and in the pub their material. We are all slaves to the algorithm
    But that's the overall background - not something personalised to me, say. Which, speaking more generally, is exactly TUD's point.
    But it is? Not sure anyone can really know any more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,166
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Taz said:

    FPT

    The Reeves effect.

    1st August business confidence is at a 3 year high.

    Now it is at a 4 year low.

    This from the same people who claim ‘Truss crashed the economy”

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1869710310409687213?s=61

    Budget has caused economy to stagnate, Bank of England says

    Andrew Bailey downgrades growth forecasts and says businesses are cutting costs and raising prices after Rachel Reeves’s raid on employers’ NI


    The Bank of England has warned that the economy is stagnating after Rachel Reeves’s budget as businesses have responded by raising prices and cutting jobs.

    Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said that there would be a gradual approach to cutting interest rates because of concerns over the impact of tax rises and a higher minimum wage.

    Officials at the Bank downgraded their forecasts and said that they now expect “zero growth” in the final three months of 2024.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/budget-has-caused-economy-to-stagnate-bank-of-england-says-vbmr7gf6d
    UK car production fell to the lowest level since 1980 last month. The economy faces headwinds well beyond those generated by the dismal budget.
    The UK only has 3.5 volume manufacturers who are all facing headwinds. JLR LOL. Nissan, right in the shit with a mediocre product line, only redemeed by a very effective dealer network. Mini, moved the brand up a segment where competition is stiffer and don't make the BEV models in the UK. Stellantis might get off their deathbed in the UK if their BEV vans are cheap enough - product quality being utterly irrelevant in that segment.

    Traded the M1000RR for a Bimota KB988. Bought a rusty E30 318is for its minty interior that's going in my S54 engined Bauer E30. All the lambda sensors on the Tributo are dead. That's my fleet update.
    Western car companies failed to read the writing on the wall about a decade back.

    They're now scrambling around in search of a strategy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,141
    edited December 20
    Leon said:

    On topic, the Royals are just another thing to be added to the growing pile of stuff that makes the average Scot think what the fuck has this got to do with me.

    Some others (not a definitive list):

    Brexit
    The Tory party
    Small boats
    Farage
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English cricket team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English football team
    The triumphs and tribulations of the English rugby team
    (See also the women’s versions of these and whatever stupid name the marketing guys have come up with for them)
    The nonce-tolerant Church of England
    The House of Lords
    Eastenders
    The sewage ridden waterways of England
    HS2
    England’s energy poverty
    GAVIN AND FCKNG STACEY

    All of these topics are of course extensively and endlessly amplified by the state broadcaster. Only this morning I’ve learned via several news bulletins that Wills & Kate did not attend the traditional pre Christmas lunch at the Palace.

    I haven’t regularly watched or listened to BBC news in YEARS. Why the fuck are you?

    It’s mildly Woke pap aimed at low-watt morons

    And despite our many stramashes I’ve never seen you as dumb; quite the opposite
    I listen to a lot of BBC R4/World Service, out of lifelong habit more than anything. I doubt you've ever listened to BBC Radio Scotland but if you had it might give you some insight into why I stick with the lesser of two evils.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,886
    edited December 20
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Taz said:

    FPT

    The Reeves effect.

    1st August business confidence is at a 3 year high.

    Now it is at a 4 year low.

    This from the same people who claim ‘Truss crashed the economy”

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1869710310409687213?s=61

    Budget has caused economy to stagnate, Bank of England says

    Andrew Bailey downgrades growth forecasts and says businesses are cutting costs and raising prices after Rachel Reeves’s raid on employers’ NI


    The Bank of England has warned that the economy is stagnating after Rachel Reeves’s budget as businesses have responded by raising prices and cutting jobs.

    Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said that there would be a gradual approach to cutting interest rates because of concerns over the impact of tax rises and a higher minimum wage.

    Officials at the Bank downgraded their forecasts and said that they now expect “zero growth” in the final three months of 2024.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/budget-has-caused-economy-to-stagnate-bank-of-england-says-vbmr7gf6d
    UK car production fell to the lowest level since 1980 last month. The economy faces headwinds well beyond those generated by the dismal budget.
    The UK only has 3.5 volume manufacturers who are all facing headwinds. JLR LOL. Nissan, right in the shit with a mediocre product line, only redemeed by a very effective dealer network. Mini, moved the brand up a segment where competition is stiffer and don't make the BEV models in the UK. Stellantis might get off their deathbed in the UK if their BEV vans are cheap enough - product quality being utterly irrelevant in that segment.

    Traded the M1000RR for a Bimota KB988. Bought a rusty E30 318is for its minty interior that's going in my S54 engined Bauer E30. All the lambda sensors on the Tributo are dead. That's my fleet update.
    A Bimoto is an absurdly fast and expensive widowmaker, but a Bauer converted E30 even with an S54 motor is a bit Centrist Dad with pipe, slippers and a spaniel. Do you still have the crazy, ape bonkers, Porsches?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,956
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Taz said:

    FPT

    The Reeves effect.

    1st August business confidence is at a 3 year high.

    Now it is at a 4 year low.

    This from the same people who claim ‘Truss crashed the economy”

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1869710310409687213?s=61

    Budget has caused economy to stagnate, Bank of England says

    Andrew Bailey downgrades growth forecasts and says businesses are cutting costs and raising prices after Rachel Reeves’s raid on employers’ NI


    The Bank of England has warned that the economy is stagnating after Rachel Reeves’s budget as businesses have responded by raising prices and cutting jobs.

    Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said that there would be a gradual approach to cutting interest rates because of concerns over the impact of tax rises and a higher minimum wage.

    Officials at the Bank downgraded their forecasts and said that they now expect “zero growth” in the final three months of 2024.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/budget-has-caused-economy-to-stagnate-bank-of-england-says-vbmr7gf6d
    UK car production fell to the lowest level since 1980 last month. The economy faces headwinds well beyond those generated by the dismal budget.
    That is undoubtedly the case but the budget really is a needlessly self inflicted wound that has compounded it.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,110

    Ratters said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
    Any idea what their track record is like? I would honestly have expected bond yields to fall next year as global interest rates continue to fall and the world economy teeters on recession given Trump's proposed policies. Their forecast is based on an "algorithm" which may be no more than a projection of very recent trends forward.
    I think they are just an aggregator who pull data from other sites. Trading Economics is forecasting 4.35% in 12 months time.

    Same here but will global interest rates continue to fall given the inflationary pressures.

    The fed is alot more hawkish after the meeting this week.

    Could we see a rise in interest rates now ?

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1869829152347664875.html
    While clearly it will take some time for people to adapt, the return of positive real interest rates is a good thing. We have had 15 years of effective negative interest rates that penalise savers and those buying annuities with their pension pots.

    Low interest rates are not a a good thing for everyone.
    Savers have the option of investing in something other than cash if they want higher returns.
    Which leads to asset bubbles, especially in housing.
    Not if investing in something productive. If people with savings in the UK had a bit more creativity than only investing in cash, bonds or houses then our economy would be in a much better place.

    UK public and venture capital equity markets have certainly not been a bubble vs global peers.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,956
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
    Any idea what their track record is like? I would honestly have expected bond yields to fall next year as global interest rates continue to fall and the world economy teeters on recession given Trump's proposed policies. Their forecast is based on an "algorithm" which may be no more than a projection of very recent trends forward.
    I think they are just an aggregator who pull data from other sites. Trading Economics is forecasting 4.35% in 12 months time.

    Same here but will global interest rates continue to fall given the inflationary pressures.

    The fed is alot more hawkish after the meeting this week.

    Could we see a rise in interest rates now ?

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1869829152347664875.html
    While clearly it will take some time for people to adapt, the return of positive real interest rates is a good thing. We have had 15 years of effective negative interest rates that penalise savers and those buying annuities with their pension pots.

    Low interest rates are not a a good thing for everyone.
    Because savers and those with pension pots are the priority of course
    It's just a return to historic norm. It's the last 15 years that have been the aberration.

    Savers should get a real return, and the return of decent annuity rates are a good thing for pension schemes.

    Absolutely right. We have just reverted to the norm. The last 10-15 years have been the aberration.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,112

    Ratters said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    On the other hand good news on government borrowing, which was better than forecasts.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/november2024

    "Borrowing – the difference between public sector spending and income – was £11.2 billion in November 2024, £3.4 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November borrowing for three years.

    Current budget deficit – borrowing to fund day-to-day public sector activities – was £6.8 billion in November 2024, £3.5 billion less than in November 2023 and the lowest November current budget deficit for three years."

    Just as well given the trajectory of borrowing costs and let's hope the forecasts for next year do not come to pass.

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/10-years/

    https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-forecast/united-kingdom/2-years/
    Any idea what their track record is like? I would honestly have expected bond yields to fall next year as global interest rates continue to fall and the world economy teeters on recession given Trump's proposed policies. Their forecast is based on an "algorithm" which may be no more than a projection of very recent trends forward.
    I think they are just an aggregator who pull data from other sites. Trading Economics is forecasting 4.35% in 12 months time.

    Same here but will global interest rates continue to fall given the inflationary pressures.

    The fed is alot more hawkish after the meeting this week.

    Could we see a rise in interest rates now ?

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1869829152347664875.html
    While clearly it will take some time for people to adapt, the return of positive real interest rates is a good thing. We have had 15 years of effective negative interest rates that penalise savers and those buying annuities with their pension pots.

    Low interest rates are not a a good thing for everyone.
    Savers have the option of investing in something other than cash if they want higher returns.
    Which leads to asset bubbles, especially in housing.
    Housing prices are not coming down despite higher interest rates. I wonder why?
    House prices are like a ratchet. They go up easily, but are sticky coming down. We see it in the time taking to sell rather than nominal asking prices falling. In practice it's more likely that house prices will remain static, getting slowly eroded by inflation. Rising incomes will help too.

    You really don't want a return of the negative equity and high interest rates that my generation suffered in the early nineties. It makes the nominal house prices look cheap, but the actual affordability was awful. Indeed the percentage of income housing cost me at Fox Jr's age (he actually lives in an identical house in Leicester to my first) was about 40% of net income. Not cheap at all.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,896
    Leon said:

    Interesting angle on Brexit


    It was more damaging for the EU than the UK. The loss of UK pragmatism and liberalism has led directly to the EU’s self defeating regulatory bonanza, destroying innovation and crushing flexibility

    https://www.eurointelligence.com/column/what-brexit-did-to-the-eu

    Wolfgang is a great guy. He is probably the most astute reader of European politics out there but he does have some biases, including excessive optimism on the ability of the UK to capitalise on Brexit, as well as an excessive degree of Anglophilia more broadly. I would agree that Brexit has harmed the EU materially, though. More than it has harmed the UK? No. As much as it has harmed the UK? Possibly.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,760
    edited December 20
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Taz said:

    FPT

    The Reeves effect.

    1st August business confidence is at a 3 year high.

    Now it is at a 4 year low.

    This from the same people who claim ‘Truss crashed the economy”

    https://x.com/aaronbastani/status/1869710310409687213?s=61

    Budget has caused economy to stagnate, Bank of England says

    Andrew Bailey downgrades growth forecasts and says businesses are cutting costs and raising prices after Rachel Reeves’s raid on employers’ NI


    The Bank of England has warned that the economy is stagnating after Rachel Reeves’s budget as businesses have responded by raising prices and cutting jobs.

    Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said that there would be a gradual approach to cutting interest rates because of concerns over the impact of tax rises and a higher minimum wage.

    Officials at the Bank downgraded their forecasts and said that they now expect “zero growth” in the final three months of 2024.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/budget-has-caused-economy-to-stagnate-bank-of-england-says-vbmr7gf6d
    UK car production fell to the lowest level since 1980 last month. The economy faces headwinds well beyond those generated by the dismal budget.
    The UK only has 3.5 volume manufacturers who are all facing headwinds. JLR LOL. Nissan, right in the shit with a mediocre product line, only redemeed by a very effective dealer network. Mini, moved the brand up a segment where competition is stiffer and don't make the BEV models in the UK. Stellantis might get off their deathbed in the UK if their BEV vans are cheap enough - product quality being utterly irrelevant in that segment.

    Traded the M1000RR for a Bimota KB988. Bought a rusty E30 318is for its minty interior that's going in my S54 engined Bauer E30. All the lambda sensors on the Tributo are dead. That's my fleet update.
    Western car companies failed to read the writing on the wall about a decade back.

    They're now scrambling around in search of a strategy.
    BMW largely got it right. Moved massive amounts to production to China and went all in on BEVs without losing too much brand equity. Also succeeded excellently with Rolls-Royce, particularly the Cullinan.

    VAG's premium brands (Porsche, Lambo, Bentley) also made shrewd moves and the mass market brands have the occasional stand out product (ID Buzz).

    However, you're mainly correct, there are plenty of European brands in a death spiral.
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