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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: March 20th 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: March 20th 2014
Wroxham on Broadland (Liberal Democrat defence)
Result of last election (2011): Conservatives 34, Liberal Democrats 12, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 21)
Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Liberal Democrats 985, 829
Conservatives 741, 537
Labour 227
Greens 197
Candidates duly nominated:
0
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https://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/41036/
"David Cameron has lost touch with the Conservatives' core support base and should be replaced by someone who "spends less time on focus groups and opinion polls", Lord Tebbit has declared.....I hope that change can be brought about and that before the General Election, we can feel like conservatives again and feel like the Prime Minister is a son of Thatcher and not a son of Tony Blair......[The Coalition is] beginning to smell past its sell by date, and the sooner it is broken up the better, never to be returned to," he urged.
Hopi Sen @hopisen 1m
Fair warning: Anyone who over-interprets tonights opinion polls will be slapped on face with my wet fish, the Single Pollock of Doom (tm)
CCHQ Press Office @CCHQPress
Labour MP:"I've spoken to a few colleagues & we all agree that it was a bad speech.Morale is very low at the moment" http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5519814/ed-under-pressure-for-budget-response.html …
Red on red incoming ;-)
'[Balls] said scrapping the requirement to take out an annuity altogether was a potentially "reckless and irresponsible" move, which could "leave people running out of money".
"Will people with ordinary-sized pension pots be able and encouraged to withdraw all of their pension savings from their pension pot and either try and invest it themselves or spend it?" he asked.
"And if they do, what happens when the money runs out? Who then picks up the tab?"'
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26649162
This is patronizing stuff from Labour. How can the bloke who was reckless and irresponsible with the finances of an entire nation possibly have the gall to lecture the rest of us? Miliband needs to get in Darling back now!
In other news ....
Putin has no more territorial claims in Europe .... Spurs exit Europe .... again .... Squirrels become favourite PB snack ....
Go Lord T!
People who are saving via defined contribution do get progressively more clued up in my experience which is great, but the education system could help on this rather than wasting time on quadratic bloody equations or something else 99% of us never use!
Ridiculous how this interview has become some big news story and makes Steve Webb sound out of touch. Nothing to do with the meat of the proposal (good or bad), but been spun into this headline...
"Minister fuels pension debate with Lamborghini comment"
No wonder politicians don't give straight answers, look what happens when they do to a ridiculous question. Do we honestly think pensioners are going to take their whole pension pot and buy a car they saw on Top Gear...
The more sensible questions surround things like if they don't leave enough for 30-40 years worth of life and / or investing in buy to let and pushing up house prices.
I'd amend the slogan to "Helping Hard Working People" (verbs are good, active voice is good, short & punchy).
And then use it for a lot of posters:
Helping you save for retirement. HHWP
Lower income taxes for most people HHWP
Making childcare easier. HHWP
A little like the tesco "every little helps" marketing strategy really...
http://www.torybingo.com/
I think Balls is projecting his own incontinent spending onto others...
Incidentally, the main reason annuities are such poor value is that they are largely based on Bond yields, which are artificially depressed by QE.
If there is a much reduced annuity market, there is less demand for bonds, and higher yields, therefore more expensive government borrowing...
After all, the PB tories were definitely right about pasties not being a thing, weren't they?
*chortle*
No Pork, obviously ran it's course ;-)
The people Labour should be worrying about are those that haven't saved into a pension scheme, not those that have. They are the people who are going to need the most help.
Annuity buyers are the sacrificial lambs that have been used to appease mortgage holders since 2008. Interest rates have been massaged down in the economy helped by limitless ( literally! ) cash from the BoE to buy gilts and hence raise their price and so ( it follows mathematically ) lower their yield. Nobody wants to listen to the howls of anguish thus caused. I suspect because people in their late fifties or early sixties ( I am neither ) are not as "electorally photogenic" as 34 yr olds with two young kids and a mortgage.
"Will people with ordinary-sized pension pots be able and encouraged to withdraw all of their pension savings from their pension pot and either try and invest it themselves or spend it?" he asked.
"And if they do, what happens when the money runs out? Who then picks up the tab?"'
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26649162
isn't this the same Balls who withdrew the nations savings, spent it twice over and the money run out as liam byrne reminded us, and guess whose picking up the tab for their recklessness -us. talk about cats and kettles
That's what, the 6th time you've linked to Norman's thoughts this afternoon?
A) Poor people are happy because bingo and beer are cheaper.
Personally I find neither particularly patronising, because I am happier that booze is cheaper and I will probably spend any windfalls on loose women and fast drugs.
But I do miss Tim's analysis after the big set-pieces. Annoying though he could be, he always had an original line to push. He would've looked beyond the bingo nonsense and started chipping away at Osborne over something else.
Him and SeanT's fisticuffs were better than any political rumbles you see on telly.
If you had half a brain you could find them easily.
Danny Alexander .. Andy Burnham .. Dominic Raab .. Jill Kirby .. Val McDermid
Scottish independence would leave families worse off, says Gordon Brown
Low and middle-income families will be more than £1bn worse off if they vote for independence and re-elect SNP, he says
I'm not sure if he is trying to help the yes or the no campaign.
Seems attractive to me, unless there is something someone knows.
Surely Labour should legislate to give the state full control over all our choices in life, so that nobody can ever do something that Labour disapproves of.
Lab 1/2
LD 6/4
SNP 50/1
Con 100/1
UKIP 100/1
Note: this seat is held by the SNP at the Scottish Parliament (SNP Maj over Lab = 1,802).
Mr. Eagles, one is delighted to have proved an inspiration to another.
Now, if the other 5% follow Shapps' advice and start drinking more beer and play bingo and blow their little nest egg, they end up needing income support, which all of you do not like.
These 5% need not have ended up needing income support !
Although, now I think about it, it's far too enormous to be included in an e-book. Might still do it for my site, but any e-book version would have to be simplified significantly.
Yet another relentlessly posturing and political budget lest we forget. Which is why they also don't have a leg to stand on for complaining when an issue becomes a political football. It's the inevitable result when Osbrowne's 'master strategies' produce incompetence so glaring and comical even the likes of wee Danny Alexander was laughing at it and mocking it.
with spurs out, now waiting for a 10%+ lead for the red team after shappygate.
By my reckoning there will be far fewer pensioners on means tested benefits. Those with private pensions will have it on top of this, whether they spend it in 20 months or 20 years.
It looks as if this pension change was not a wheeze dreamt up recently, but rather one that has been in genesis for some time. Hopefully this has allowed the wrinkles to be ironed out.
We shall see..
Jack W and Mick Pork deserve to know whether the ARSE spoke wisely this week and Compouter needs to know if Mr Avery is going to expect those goalposts moved!
The time for a move on policy will come, but it is not now. They need clear air.
Still think downingstreetdocumentphotographgate was a put up job, Pork? It must be embarrassing being you.
You are only thinking about the potential negatives. What about the people who would be better off with a more competitive annuity which will hopefully be promoted by this greater freedom, or better off taking more cash, or only cash, or re-investing in some other way? There are a lot of upsides to giving people more choices. Make pensions work for the pensioners, not for the pensions industry.
Everybody seems to agree that defined contribution pensions are ineffective now, and that there are a lot of disincentives to saving when the returns can be so dismal. All the government wants to do is let people say "no, that's not good enough, I've found something better." Very few people are going to think blowing their savings is a good idea.
He also helped write the last manifesto, so a degree of backroom experience also.
He and Gordon Brown stole £125 billion from private sector pension funds and then lectured us about not saving enough for retirement. In the almost 4 years of the Coalition government my pension fund has recovered the 33% it lost during the Brown/Balls years 1997-2010 and added a further 30% so far. In short, over the past 4 years it has doubled in value.
He has been on the public payroll for most of his adult life, has a gold plated pension which the rest of us are paying for and between him and his wife costs the taxpayer around £1/2 million a year in salary and expenses.
No one seems to have answered what happens to those people who have not purchased an annuity but live longer than they expect. Statistically, people aged 60 - 65 believe they will die sooner than they do partly because people assume , on average, they will die around the same time as their parents and grandparents but people are now living longer.
The IFS has made a very good study of these changes. It basically concludes that until 2018, tax receipts will go up and, thereafter, the opposite will happen.
I think the main purpose of these changes was:
1. to increase the short term tax receipts, which will be considerable [ paid by people withdrawing their cash earlier than would have ]
2. to make this into a very efficient tax avoidance vehicle for HRT payers who are mostly Tory voters.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5520156/grant-shapps-budget-day-tweet-may-spark-tory-civil-war.html
You think that Steve Webb the Lib Dem Pensions Minister is trying to "make this into a very efficient tax avoidance vehicle for HRT payers who are mostly Tory voters"?
Why the hell would a Lib Dem do that?
So too it might be with Cameron and the coalition. If he doesn't win next year, then Miliband and Balls will be the new Wilson and Healey.
All studies so far has indicated that annuity rates will be worse for those still buying because the market will be smaller.
You see, that's the thing about Tories. We believe that people should have the right to do what they want with their money.
My Telegraph article from today, on HMRC's new ability to drain your bank account - updated with treasury comments: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/technology/willardfoxton2/100012871/did-you-spot-this-budget-gives-hmrc-power-to-raid-your-bank-account-like-wonga/
After age 80 I will slow down, if I am still alive, and read books and watch the football, I shall live frugally for another decade or so in an old house, with old clothes and an old motor. If I am dead then I will not need money at all.
It makes sense to spend the money in early active retirement, at least to me. You can't take it with you...
In my view, Labour will have to move into a position much like the German CDU, while the Tories have a more economically and socially liberal positioning.
or not.
Sun Politics@Sun_Politics·47 secs
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead remains five points: Lab 39, Con 34, LD 10, UKIP 10
One point pensions bounce.
One point bingo bounce.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead remains five points: Lab 39, Con 34, LD 10, UKIP 10