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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Shapps Tweet ad could be as damaging as Liam Byrne’s “t

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,468
    AveryLP said:

    Mr. LP, cheers for the post, but I don't have paint.net now. Uncertain whether I'll try and get it again (or find the original file, if I still have it, and install it from that), or whether I'll just try and use paint for map-making. It'd be fiddlier, but I'd rather not risk more woe.

    If you're making maps, use a vector program such as Inkscape, and touch up if necessary with a bitmap editor such as GIMP.

    Doing them as vectors for the base work gives you a whole host of advantages, IMHO at least.
    Snap to node, JJ!
    Grid lock on! Bezier curve ready! BEVEL!

    I knew someone who wrote a very early vector graphics program that is still intensely usable 25 years later. Or at least it would be if I owned a computer (say a Raspberry Pi) to run it on ...

    ;-)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,903


    An asset to the nation? You're having a laugh. Mine's an asset to me. My money, I've saved it and done without fancy meals in swanky London restaurants and wide screen TVs.

    Ah yes, but you are an asset to the nation. Your forbearance is both a lesson and nice earner for us all!



  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    philiph said:



    Please tell me how the 2013 budget unravelled

    I don't think it ever ravelled in the first place. Can 't remember a thing about it.

    Well, you made it clear last night that you don't understand pensions, so being indifferent to Budgets is no surprise.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    philiph said:



    Please tell me how the 2013 budget unravelled

    I don't think it ever ravelled in the first place. Can 't remember a thing about it.

    Much like Labour party economic policy ?!?

    You do set them up so nicely Nick ....

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    RodCrosby said:

    CD13 said:


    Rod, your female ancestor may have had children - or rather been pregnant - as syphilis could have caused miscarriages that wouldn't have been reported.

    Small point. She wasn't an ancestor. She was my great-grandfather's first wife.
    But I take your point. We'll never know if she was ever pregnant, but as far as I can ascertain there were no live children from this marriage. If they existed they would only be about 13 in April 1891 (census), by which time their father was living in Tottenham with his young, pregnant second wife, who would give birth to my grandfather 8 weeks later... No sign of them.
    A very good point. from CD13. BTW, Rod, do you have such things as valuation rolls down there and would they be of any use at least for checking the known census address? (May not be much use for you given the timing.) The Scottish ones turn out extremely useful in complementing census data, partly because they list who is paying the rent, not who happened to be in/out on census night. But (at least in much of the C19) they didn't record renters who paid such low rents that they didn't qualify to vote (the other reason, apart from rates assessment, for the rolls).

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2014
    Will someone tell the R5 commentator that Spurs lost 3-1 at home and not 3-0, he keeps saying Spurs need to score 4, or 2 in the last 10 mins...

    It makes it sound even less possible than it really is which is minimal anyway
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2014
    Omnium said:


    An asset to the nation? You're having a laugh. Mine's an asset to me. My money, I've saved it and done without fancy meals in swanky London restaurants and wide screen TVs.

    Ah yes, but you are an asset to the nation. Your forbearance is both a lesson and nice earner for us all!



    Until I hose it all up the wall on a Lambo and some Lafite.
  • Will someone tell the R5 commentator that Spurs lost 3-1 at home and not 3-0, he keeps saying Spurs need to score 4, or 2 in the last 10 mins...

    It makes it sound even less possible than it really is which is minimal anyway

    It is a strong possibility, see my post at 6.02pm
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,565
    JackW said:

    philiph said:



    Please tell me how the 2013 budget unravelled

    I don't think it ever ravelled in the first place. Can 't remember a thing about it.

    Much like Labour party economic policy ?!?

    You do set them up so nicely Nick ....

    That would indeed be worrying if we were in government, Jack.
  • Blatant penalty.

    Shocker from the ref.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Blatant penalty.

    Shocker from the ref.

    Agreed and should have scored just after
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    Evening all :)

    Amidst all the post-Budget euphoria from the usual suspects, one or two are offering a more cautionary tone:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/george-osborne-has-a-fight-on-his-hands-to-bring-down-the-structural-deficit-9205461.html

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/james-ashton-spending-not-saving-will-save-the-uk-economy-9205497.html

    On the racing front, Ladbrokes and Hills are squealing with the latter claiming the rise in levy on some FOBT machines (not all) will cost the company £22 million and the BBA claiming jobs and shops are at stake though that's a bit of hyperbole in my view.

    Politically, of wise, a clever Budget though as one or two have opined, some of the eye-catching measures sound much more significant than they are. That said, it's all about improving public confidence and hoping that generates a swell of support for the Conservatives to "carry on" after 2015.

    The Labour response has been predictably slated by many on here but the core problem is the complete failure to provide a coherent alternative since 2010. Oddly enough, the main critique was and remains from the Thatcherite side of the fence
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Gideons claims to play bingo still in the air "George Osborne's man has been unable to find out where he played bingo. He has been trying really hard. Honest."
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    Surbiton :"If annuity was so bad, why was it practised for so long"

    Well, quite. And you could say the same about slavery, and The Lash.

    Well, I would still be buying an annuity. Someone else also commented that he would too ! Actually, I can't think of an alternative investment for old age which is available so easily and in small parcels. So don't think it will die out.

    I cannot see any other instrument at present where you effectively buy a [ relatively inexpensive ] insurance policy for dying well beyond your expected mortality.

    Alternatively, I would have to buy an insurance policy. Guess the cost of buying that for a 66year old ?

    People's view today is partly coloured by recent QE induced interest rates. Once May 2015 is out of the way, even Osborne appointee Carney will be jacking interest rates. Normal service will resume.
  • New Thread
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    philiph said:



    Please tell me how the 2013 budget unravelled

    I don't think it ever ravelled in the first place. Can 't remember a thing about it.

    Much like Labour party economic policy ?!?

    You do set them up so nicely Nick ....

    That would indeed be worrying if we were in government, Jack.
    I sense a little of the last day of school about that post Nick ....

    Fear not my ARSE still has you edging Broxtowe but Mrs Ed not measuring the curtains at Number 10.

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Storming Norman weighs in to Call me Dave:"David Cameron has lost touch with the Conservatives' core support base and should be replaced by someone who "spends less time on focus groups and opinion polls", Lord Tebbit has declared....I hope that change can be brought about and that before the General Election, we can feel like conservatives again and feel like the Prime Minister is a son of Thatcher and not a son of Tony Blair.”

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Norm continued...."[The Coalition is] beginning to smell past its sell by date, and the sooner it is broken up the better, never to be returned to," he urged."
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    ziggy said:

    Neil said:

    Wasnt it more that if you took advantage of the generous tax regime in building up your pension pot you had to promise not to splurge it all to such a degree that you might become a burden on the state? You were perfectly free to put your money into any other vehicle and do what you want with it instead.

    But in order to splurge it, you're going to have to take it out of the tax-free wrapper and take a humoungous income tax hit, thus negating the generous tax regime. Few people are going to do that unless they have a very strong reason to do so.

    A more realistic concern is that a pensioner takes out a slightly excessive income relative to the pot size, thus depleting it over a period of a few years. That is a potential risk, but it comes down to trusting people to make their own decisions, and making sure they are properly informed. In any case it has to be balanced against the inflation risk on conventional (level) annuities.
    "Properly informed" about exactly how long they're going to live?

    This budget is following the usual Osborne pattern. The Tory Press wet themselves. Tory loyalists delude themselves he's played a blinder and wrongfooted Labour. Tories shoot themselves in the foot with some wretchedly stupid PR. The budget itself unravels under scrutiny.

    Osborne is truly the heir to Brown.
    Nah. Budgets that unravel tend to do so within 24 hours. When Brown played slight of hand with the 22/20/10p income tax rates, it didn't make 30 minutes. It's still possible that something might come up but Labour, the media and financial/tax analysts will have been through the details pretty thoroughly by now and the fact that the debate hasn't moved on suggests to me that this is one that won't unravel.

    On the PR note, it's a non-issue. To my mind, the biggest potential downside isn't the pronoun but how small the goodies are that are being hyped.
    Seems to me the best strategy is to make it a general tag line (although I'd amend to "helping hard working taxpayers").

    For instance: Lower income tax for most workers. HHWT.

    Or Helping you save for Your Retirement. HHWT.

    Etx
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Carnyx said:

    RodCrosby said:

    CD13 said:


    Rod, your female ancestor may have had children - or rather been pregnant - as syphilis could have caused miscarriages that wouldn't have been reported.

    Small point. She wasn't an ancestor. She was my great-grandfather's first wife.
    But I take your point. We'll never know if she was ever pregnant, but as far as I can ascertain there were no live children from this marriage. If they existed they would only be about 13 in April 1891 (census), by which time their father was living in Tottenham with his young, pregnant second wife, who would give birth to my grandfather 8 weeks later... No sign of them.
    A very good point. from CD13. BTW, Rod, do you have such things as valuation rolls down there and would they be of any use at least for checking the known census address? (May not be much use for you given the timing.) The Scottish ones turn out extremely useful in complementing census data, partly because they list who is paying the rent, not who happened to be in/out on census night. But (at least in much of the C19) they didn't record renters who paid such low rents that they didn't qualify to vote (the other reason, apart from rates assessment, for the rolls).

    I don't think so. In any event I'm not sure what the relevance would be. We started off talking about unusual or obscure causes of death. I am more interested in the aetiology and course of tertiary syphilis, and the facts of my great-grandfather's disastrous first marriage. Pretty certain there were no live kids from the union.

    Another oddity is that when he died in 1892 there was no will, no probate... nothing. He wasn't a pauper. He was a Master builder (meaning he employed others) and the house where he was living in 1891 at the time of my grandfather's birth was no hovel. "Melrose Villa", Philip Lane, Tottenham.

    However, he had been made bankrupt and discharged in 1877. I wonder if there was a connection between that and his marriage in late 1876. A dowry to get him out of financial trouble in return for marrying an 'unmarriageable' woman?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Amidst all the post-Budget euphoria from the usual suspects, one or two are offering a more cautionary tone:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/george-osborne-has-a-fight-on-his-hands-to-bring-down-the-structural-deficit-9205461.html

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/james-ashton-spending-not-saving-will-save-the-uk-economy-9205497.html

    On the racing front, Ladbrokes and Hills are squealing with the latter claiming the rise in levy on some FOBT machines (not all) will cost the company £22 million and the BBA claiming jobs and shops are at stake though that's a bit of hyperbole in my view.

    Politically, of wise, a clever Budget though as one or two have opined, some of the eye-catching measures sound much more significant than they are. That said, it's all about improving public confidence and hoping that generates a swell of support for the Conservatives to "carry on" after 2015.

    The Labour response has been predictably slated by many on here but the core problem is the complete failure to provide a coherent alternative since 2010. Oddly enough, the main critique was and remains from the Thatcherite side of the fence

    I don't think right wingers don't give a monkeys about the deficit. Look at Reagan !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    surbiton said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Amidst all the post-Budget euphoria from the usual suspects, one or two are offering a more cautionary tone:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/business/business-news/george-osborne-has-a-fight-on-his-hands-to-bring-down-the-structural-deficit-9205461.html

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/james-ashton-spending-not-saving-will-save-the-uk-economy-9205497.html

    On the racing front, Ladbrokes and Hills are squealing with the latter claiming the rise in levy on some FOBT machines (not all) will cost the company £22 million and the BBA claiming jobs and shops are at stake though that's a bit of hyperbole in my view.

    Politically, of wise, a clever Budget though as one or two have opined, some of the eye-catching measures sound much more significant than they are. That said, it's all about improving public confidence and hoping that generates a swell of support for the Conservatives to "carry on" after 2015.

    The Labour response has been predictably slated by many on here but the core problem is the complete failure to provide a coherent alternative since 2010. Oddly enough, the main critique was and remains from the Thatcherite side of the fence

    I don't think right wingers don't give a monkeys about the deficit. Look at Reagan !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    "Overall GDP will return to 2008 levels later this year but, due to a rising population, output per head remains 5.5% below its pre-recession peak, and is unlikely to recover until 2017. This decade-long stagnation is unprecedented in peacetime: it underlines the hard yards ahead for the economy — and for Osborne"

    Damn ! It's all the fault of the Bulgarian !
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    The PB tory fools shrieking and whining loudest and longest that Shapps hilarious stupidity must be ignored were of course the precise same ones who were shrieking and whining that pasties couldn't possibly make a difference.


    Always remember the PB Golden Rule.


    The PB Tories are always wrong. The PB tories never learn.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    philiph said:



    Please tell me how the 2013 budget unravelled

    I don't think it ever ravelled in the first place. Can 't remember a thing about it.

    Much like Labour party economic policy ?!?

    You do set them up so nicely Nick ....

    That would indeed be worrying if we were in government, Jack.
    I sense a little of the last day of school about that post Nick ....

    Fear not my ARSE still has you edging Broxtowe but Mrs Ed not measuring the curtains at Number 10.

    Anna is a quality act though, another second place is on the cards for Mr Palmer.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    I haven't previously commented on the Shapps ad, but the more I think about it, it is almost the peak of patronising. On you go plebs! Enjoy your circuses!
This discussion has been closed.