All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
At least soon the FDP won't be able to block everything (hopefully).
Some surprise here at Pistorius's decision to rule himself out as the SPD's Chancellor candidate. There was some pressure for him to replace Scholz, mainly due to polling like this (also from yesterday):
Pistorius vs Merz Pistorius 59% Merz 28% Don't know 13%
Even the 5% lead for (CDU leader) Merz over Scholz is pretty poor, given the historically low popularity of the current government. And the 31% (!) lead for Pistorius over Merz underlines both how unpopular Merz already is, and how well-liked Pistorius is.
Another embarrassing story for Labour, and another with a link to Redbridge.
It’s his property, he wanted to sell it. It’s a nothing story. Why should he not sell his own property ? If the boot was on the other foot she’d just leave as per her agreement. Probably little more than lobbying on behalf of those supporting the so-called renters reform act.
I struggle with it, because not being able to deal with potential and actual homelessness seems like a separate issue entirely which gets combined with talk of 'unjust' evictions. I mean, what's the solution here, that he should not be able to sell his own property? What if he were in financial difficulty and needed to sell it? (Obviously not the case here, he has many properties, but what if he were)
Certainly the new law is trying to tackle some issues but is going about it the wrong way in my view and will make things worse for the people it seeks to help. Many small and accidental landlords have been selling due to the impending changes. Some welcome that however it won’t be, in the main, tenants buying. So the property available for let will probably fall. You will get a rise of large corporate landlords which, again, won’t help tenants.
If they bring in price controls at a later date expect further loss of rental property.
The problem is demand is far greater than supply in parts of the country. Build build build is the solution.
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
Leanne Mohamad, who lost the Ilford North MP election to Wes Streeting by 528 votes, has sent a complaint to the Electoral Commission outlining ‘serious irregularities’
Streeting needs to hope there is not a need for a further election in Ilford North or his political career is over.
Taken awhile to send that complaint, I'm curious if there is any kind of time limit on electoral petitions.
It has been only four months since the election.
Mark Oaten of the LDs was unseated by electoral petition on 6th October 1997, fully five months after the 1997 election. But it's not clear when the petition process started. In any case, he won the by-election on 20th November by 21,556 votes, compared with just 2, yes TWO, votes at the General Election.
I can never hear that name without chuckling. I wonder what he's doing now.
Having just looked him up, he's executive of the International Fur Trade federation. Peculiar how lives turn out.
From one fetish to another.
(Apparently, the hardest part was explaining to his kids that daddy paid a man to... well... you get the picture.)
God yes. How do you go on being Mark Oaten after that? The part of the episode which most amused me was that it came to light because the other party heard the name 'Mark Oaten' on the news in the context of the Lib Dem leadership election and recognised it. Apparently MO hadn't considered the position of Lib Dem home affairs(?) spokesman sufficiently public-eye to warrant using a pseudonym when booking his recreational activities.
Another embarrassing story for Labour, and another with a link to Redbridge.
It’s his property, he wanted to sell it. It’s a nothing story. Why should he not sell his own property ? If the boot was on the other foot she’d just leave as per her agreement. Probably little more than lobbying on behalf of those supporting the so-called renters reform act.
I struggle with it, because not being able to deal with potential and actual homelessness seems like a separate issue entirely which gets combined with talk of 'unjust' evictions. I mean, what's the solution here, that he should not be able to sell his own property? What if he were in financial difficulty and needed to sell it? (Obviously not the case here, he has many properties, but what if he were)
The ownership and tenancy are separate. If you sell a tenanted flat usually the tenancy stays the same. The issue here seems to be it was a council run scheme for "homeless" tenants rather than an ordinary AST agreement where the tenant has fewer rights.
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
I'd enjoy Lee Anderson asking in Partliament:
Why is the Betäubungsmittelverschreibungsverordnung so complex?
or
Does the Government intend to maintain the Rindfleischetikettierungsüberwachungsaufgabenübertragungsgesetz in it's current form?
("Narcotics Prescription Regulation."
Betäubungsmittel: narcotics Betäubung: anesthesia or numbing Mittel: means or agent Verschreibung: prescription Verschreiben: to prescribe Verordnung: regulation
The Trump win helps Reform. It gives a boost to the sort of opinions and attitudes that drive the populist right. It also gives tips on what works, eg charismatic leader, lurid rhetoric, parochial nationalism, weaponisation of social media. If our economy struggles over the next few years Reform are well placed to profit. Farage is very short at 6 for Next PM but I'm not about to lay it.
Never underestimate the extent to which most people don't know about politics. I expect if you asked 100 people who the LOTO or the LOTCP was, less than half would answer correctly unprompted. It's a long old slog to recognition, never mind approval (or not-disapproval, which is often as good as you can hope for).
Connoisseurs of Pointless will know very well that any question involving politics invariably elicits pathetically low recognition totals.
The header rather hints at the sort of political bet that would be almost Truss-like in its unwisdom!
Some poor innocent new poster might stumble upon this site and be caused to fall so spectacularly at the first hurdle of their first outing that they'll never bet again! This is hardly in the interests of PB surely - we require gentle slow robbery of new bettors
The Trump win helps Reform. It gives a boost to the sort of opinions and attitudes that drive the populist right. It also gives tips on what works, eg charismatic leader, lurid rhetoric, parochial nationalism, weaponisation of social media. If our economy struggles over the next few years Reform are well placed to profit. Farage is very short at 6 for Next PM but I'm not about to lay it.
If?
Probable but no certainty. Depends on what happens in this big old world of ours. I'm none too optimistic but won't bang on about it because it's Friday.
Gaetz has announced he will not be returning to Congress.
He's been a magnet for trouble and there are other people there able to get TV time, I suppose he can just spend more time with his money and less focus on his issues.
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
12.11.2024 Press release Deutsche Bundesbank DE Rise in current account surplus Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €22.6 billion in September 2024, up €5.5 billion on the previous month’s level. This was caused by the larger surplus in the goods account and especially by the shift to a surplus in invisible current transactions, which comprise services as well as primary and secondary income.
The one that caused more fun was Matthew Wardman, who was a competitor for Mr Gay UK in 2002, and I discovered shortly after I coined the pseudonym in 2006. I thought I had done enough homework, but apparently not quite.
One of my real name problems is that there are only about 3 of me in the entire online world, and an online name needs to be difficult to misspell in most language pronunciations and when read out on a podcast - at least for traffic tarts. At the time I was potentially working back in the public sector and did not want to be obvious, and there was a habit of sacking bloggers, or telling their employers who they were to try and shut them up. Also, journalists used to go scalp-hunting for doxxing purposes.
He was a bit more buff than I was, even then . My photo quota
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
The one that caused more fun was Matthew Wardman, who was a competitor for Mr Gay UK in 2002, and I discovered shortly after I coined the pseudonym in 2006. I thought I had done enough homework, but apparently not quite.
One of my real name problems is that there are only about 3 of me in the entire online world, and an online name needs to be difficult to misspell in most language pronunciations and when read out on a podcast - at least for traffic tarts. At the time I was potentially working back in the public sector and did not want to be obvious, and there was a habit of sacking bloggers, or telling their employers who they were to try and shut them up. Also, journalists used to go scalp-hunting for doxxing purposes.
He was a bit more buff than I was, even then . My photo quota
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
Does it tell us anything about Brexit, Rog?
Also, are you sure about the 15 years part?
I've just got 120. Generally its between 112-118. It could be I've missed a good month. Before 2010 it was sometimes higher
Crikey - if I'd been selling you currency in 2015 I could have retired years ago.
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
A percentage of GDP measure is meaningless if your argument is that their absolute level of consumption is too low. You'd have a stronger argument claiming that they export too much and need to reduce their level of production.
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
This anecdote tells us that you are the stupidest person in history
Except that it is the Narnia of perpetual recession, rather than winter, and we live under the spell of Woke, and the cancelled stand there, silent, turned to muted stone
"Economists have sounded the alarm over a UK recession after data showed Britain’s economy was reeling from the effects of Rachel Reeves’s tax-raising Budget.
"Britain is now “close to stagnation” after closely watched PMI figures showed activity among the UK’s private sector companies shrank for the first time in more than a year in November."
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
A percentage of GDP measure is meaningless if your argument is that their absolute level of consumption is too low. You'd have a stronger argument claiming that they export too much and need to reduce their level of production.
I'm not sure there's much in any field where an absolute measure is more meaningful than a relative one. Perhaps in engineering?
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
The measure should be on how much people consume by gdp per capita.
If state a people are spending 75% of gdp per capita and state b they are spending 66% of gdp per capita then state a people are consuming more and spending less even if consumer spending in state a is 50% of gdp and in state b its 60%.....gdp is a meanings stat that tells you little....we see that when gdp goes up but on average people get poorer
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
A percentage of GDP measure is meaningless if your argument is that their absolute level of consumption is too low. You'd have a stronger argument claiming that they export too much and need to reduce their level of production.
I'm not sure there's much in any field where an absolute measure is more meaningful than a relative one. Perhaps in engineering?
Well according to that table, Lebanon has the highest rate of household consumption and Ireland the second lowest. Meaningful?
Except that it is the Narnia of perpetual recession, rather than winter, and we live under the spell of Woke, and the cancelled stand there, silent, turned to muted stone
"Economists have sounded the alarm over a UK recession after data showed Britain’s economy was reeling from the effects of Rachel Reeves’s tax-raising Budget.
"Britain is now “close to stagnation” after closely watched PMI figures showed activity among the UK’s private sector companies shrank for the first time in more than a year in November."
Always winter but never Christmas. Pretty much sums it up. Reeves as the snow queen. But who gets to be Titmus?
I'm interested to see that the Black Belt Barrister is promoting the Free Speech Union. I'm not strongly opposed to the latter, and they have raised some important questions and make some over self-important setups pay attention, but Toby Young doesn't half adopt some idiosyncratic positions.
Which is imo becoming a habit of BBB.
This afternoon he's exploring a potential request for Elon Musk to testify to a Select Committee in the context of the extradition treaty, and whether Musk would be arrested under terrorism law at the border and required to furnish all his passwords on pain of prison. Musk is doing his "bit of a tit" thing and flapping about he will summon British MPs to the USA to something something, all in response to a tweet by a strange far right commentator called Ian Miles Cheong.
BBB is soon going to mean Binkety-Bankety-Bonkers.
I was thinking the same thing. BBB used to be an interesting and thoughtful watch; since the GE he seems to be an unthinking critic of anything the government does.
Glad I'm not the only one who's noticed this too - the legal analysis tends to be (I assume) ok but the choices of topics are a bit odd.
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
A percentage of GDP measure is meaningless if your argument is that their absolute level of consumption is too low. You'd have a stronger argument claiming that they export too much and need to reduce their level of production.
German households save a much higher proportion of their income than British or American ones. This is captured in both statistics on household savings rates and via consumption as a percentage of GDP.
You can choose whichever metric you prefer, but they both tell the same story.
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
A percentage of GDP measure is meaningless if your argument is that their absolute level of consumption is too low. You'd have a stronger argument claiming that they export too much and need to reduce their level of production.
And my argument is that their level of consumption relative to income is low.
Except that it is the Narnia of perpetual recession, rather than winter, and we live under the spell of Woke, and the cancelled stand there, silent, turned to muted stone
"Economists have sounded the alarm over a UK recession after data showed Britain’s economy was reeling from the effects of Rachel Reeves’s tax-raising Budget.
"Britain is now “close to stagnation” after closely watched PMI figures showed activity among the UK’s private sector companies shrank for the first time in more than a year in November."
I think two things: (1) Labour will plumb new depths in the polling and (2) Reform are here to stay.
“Restaurant critic Jay Rayner has accused The Guardian of employing anti-Semites and its editor of lacking the courage to take them on – turning up the heat on the identity crisis gripping the Left-wing news organisation.
“In a message to friends on Facebook, Mr Rayner, who this week quit the paper’s sister Sunday title The Observer after 28 years, launched an excoriating attack on Katharine Viner, the Guardian’s editor, over her alleged failure to properly address anti-Semitism.”
Telegraph
££
God you don't want to piss off your restaurant critic with your political stance.
Still, could be worse. It could be the travel writer.
Jay Rayner's gone to the Financial Times.
That's a real blow to the Guardian. Rayner is an excellent restaurant critic. I know him ery vaguely from years back and I abhor his Woke politics, but he's a really fine food writer (and a pleasant chap)
Who else makes the Guardian worth reading? Polly Tuscany is about 98 and can barely digest solid food. Simon Jenkins ditto. Owen Jones has gone mad. Stewart Lee is way off the boil. So is Marina Hyde. John Harris is maybe the last good writer left, but he's sporadic
That's it. Rayner was literally the last reason I would knowingly turn to the Guardian, oddly that makes him a bit like Masterchef, the last reason I eagerly tune in to the BBC
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
A percentage of GDP measure is meaningless if your argument is that their absolute level of consumption is too low. You'd have a stronger argument claiming that they export too much and need to reduce their level of production.
I'm not sure there's much in any field where an absolute measure is more meaningful than a relative one. Perhaps in engineering?
Well according to that table, Lebanon has the highest rate of household consumption and Ireland the second lowest. Meaningful?
Well yes: it tells you that a lot of Irish GDP doesn't go anywhere near consumers, and that Lebanon's economy is propped up by remittances from abroad.
But if you want to look at large countries, the numbers are very definitely meaningful. And if you choose to ignore them because they don't fit your preconceptions, that's fine. But it does mean my chances of paying attention to you are going to be much reduced.
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
The measure should be on how much people consume by gdp per capita.
If state a people are spending 75% of gdp per capita and state b they are spending 66% of gdp per capita then state a people are consuming more and spending less even if consumer spending in state a is 50% of gdp and in state b its 60%.....gdp is a meanings stat that tells you little....we see that when gdp goes up but on average people get poorer
In which case look at household savings rates: as they both tell the same story. I.e., in some parts of the world households save a lot, and in some places households don't save a lot.
The former group of countries run trade surpluses. The latter group run trade deficits.
Except that it is the Narnia of perpetual recession, rather than winter, and we live under the spell of Woke, and the cancelled stand there, silent, turned to muted stone
"Economists have sounded the alarm over a UK recession after data showed Britain’s economy was reeling from the effects of Rachel Reeves’s tax-raising Budget.
"Britain is now “close to stagnation” after closely watched PMI figures showed activity among the UK’s private sector companies shrank for the first time in more than a year in November."
I think two things: (1) Labour will plumb new depths in the polling and (2) Reform are here to stay.
I don't know what this means for GE2029.
If Reform want to kick out this government, they'll need to target Labour seats and soft pedal on the Conservatives with a goal of ending up in coalition.
I don't think that will happen, though. Farage's game has always been to push the Conservatives rightwards by threatening to steal their voters and influencing policy that way.
But that only worked while the Conservatives were in government. Now, if he's serious about influencing policy, he needs to focus on Labour for the next 5 years. Internecine warfare with the Tories will only lead to a split vote and another Labour majority.
Except that it is the Narnia of perpetual recession, rather than winter, and we live under the spell of Woke, and the cancelled stand there, silent, turned to muted stone
"Economists have sounded the alarm over a UK recession after data showed Britain’s economy was reeling from the effects of Rachel Reeves’s tax-raising Budget.
"Britain is now “close to stagnation” after closely watched PMI figures showed activity among the UK’s private sector companies shrank for the first time in more than a year in November."
Always winter but never Christmas. Pretty much sums it up. Reeves as the snow queen. But who gets to be Titmus?
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
A percentage of GDP measure is meaningless if your argument is that their absolute level of consumption is too low. You'd have a stronger argument claiming that they export too much and need to reduce their level of production.
And my argument is that their level of consumption relative to income is low.
It seems that you're actually saying that their savings rate is high, which is not quite the same thing. You could reduce their savings rate by soaking them with rents without increasing their consumption.
It's just possible that we are living through another generational political shift. The Tories have shat themselves inside out. Labour have been in office for less than 5 months and everyone is sick of them.
Reform are very serious about becoming very serious. Despite the usual "lets all point at the lunatics and fruitcakes" response from the mainstream, their organising is starting to look professional and they are picking up a very large number of members.
And I have to put a word in for my own LibDems. As so many people note, once we dig in we dig in deep. And with the big two in disarray the opportunity is there to keep the momentum going.
Once politicians lose their contact with reality they are finished. The Tories are on planet Zog, Labour are sailing off into the distance not having realised that they aren't taking the country with them. That creates a vacuum, and all kinds of things will get sucked in...
I think the problem for Reform is that, a bit like the Lib Dems at times, they are winning as 'we are not like them'. The Lib Dems imploded after the coalition because they were shown to be just like the rest i.e. being in power means you have to compromise. Governing is to choose and all that. I have no idea what Reform stand for, other than a strong suspicion its no more immigration, low taxes and England winning at sport. Being a protest vote is ok until you win.
Talking of which, look at the Glasgow results yesterday.
Drumchapel & Anniesland (Glasgow) Council By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:
Except that it is the Narnia of perpetual recession, rather than winter, and we live under the spell of Woke, and the cancelled stand there, silent, turned to muted stone
"Economists have sounded the alarm over a UK recession after data showed Britain’s economy was reeling from the effects of Rachel Reeves’s tax-raising Budget.
"Britain is now “close to stagnation” after closely watched PMI figures showed activity among the UK’s private sector companies shrank for the first time in more than a year in November."
Always winter but never Christmas. Pretty much sums it up. Reeves as the snow queen. But who gets to be Titmus?
Woops, Tumnus. Too late to change.
Haha - busy thinking about the fragrant Abby Titmus of lad mag fame eh?
It's just possible that we are living through another generational political shift. The Tories have shat themselves inside out. Labour have been in office for less than 5 months and everyone is sick of them.
Reform are very serious about becoming very serious. Despite the usual "lets all point at the lunatics and fruitcakes" response from the mainstream, their organising is starting to look professional and they are picking up a very large number of members.
And I have to put a word in for my own LibDems. As so many people note, once we dig in we dig in deep. And with the big two in disarray the opportunity is there to keep the momentum going.
Once politicians lose their contact with reality they are finished. The Tories are on planet Zog, Labour are sailing off into the distance not having realised that they aren't taking the country with them. That creates a vacuum, and all kinds of things will get sucked in...
I think the problem for Reform is that, a bit like the Lib Dems at times, they are winning as 'we are not like them'. The Lib Dems imploded after the coalition because they were shown to be just like the rest i.e. being in power means you have to compromise. Governing is to choose and all that. I have no idea what Reform stand for, other than a strong suspicion its no more immigration, low taxes and England winning at sport. Being a protest vote is ok until you win.
Talking of which, look at the Glasgow results yesterday.
Drumchapel & Anniesland (Glasgow) Council By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:
“Restaurant critic Jay Rayner has accused The Guardian of employing anti-Semites and its editor of lacking the courage to take them on – turning up the heat on the identity crisis gripping the Left-wing news organisation.
“In a message to friends on Facebook, Mr Rayner, who this week quit the paper’s sister Sunday title The Observer after 28 years, launched an excoriating attack on Katharine Viner, the Guardian’s editor, over her alleged failure to properly address anti-Semitism.”
Telegraph
££
God you don't want to piss off your restaurant critic with your political stance.
Still, could be worse. It could be the travel writer.
Jay Rayner's gone to the Financial Times.
That's a real blow to the Guardian. Rayner is an excellent restaurant critic. I know him ery vaguely from years back and I abhor his Woke politics, but he's a really fine food writer (and a pleasant chap)
Who else makes the Guardian worth reading? Polly Tuscany is about 98 and can barely digest solid food. Simon Jenkins ditto. Owen Jones has gone mad. Stewart Lee is way off the boil. So is Marina Hyde. John Harris is maybe the last good writer left, but he's sporadic
That's it. Rayner was literally the last reason I would knowingly turn to the Guardian, oddly that makes him a bit like Masterchef, the last reason I eagerly tune in to the BBC
I've never read his columns but he is charming on Masterchef, almost lyrical.
Except that it is the Narnia of perpetual recession, rather than winter, and we live under the spell of Woke, and the cancelled stand there, silent, turned to muted stone
"Economists have sounded the alarm over a UK recession after data showed Britain’s economy was reeling from the effects of Rachel Reeves’s tax-raising Budget.
"Britain is now “close to stagnation” after closely watched PMI figures showed activity among the UK’s private sector companies shrank for the first time in more than a year in November."
Always winter but never Christmas. Pretty much sums it up. Reeves as the snow queen. But who gets to be Titmus?
Woops, Tumnus. Too late to change.
Haha - busy thinking about the fragrant Abby Titmus of lad mag fame eh?
“Restaurant critic Jay Rayner has accused The Guardian of employing anti-Semites and its editor of lacking the courage to take them on – turning up the heat on the identity crisis gripping the Left-wing news organisation.
“In a message to friends on Facebook, Mr Rayner, who this week quit the paper’s sister Sunday title The Observer after 28 years, launched an excoriating attack on Katharine Viner, the Guardian’s editor, over her alleged failure to properly address anti-Semitism.”
Telegraph
££
God you don't want to piss off your restaurant critic with your political stance.
Still, could be worse. It could be the travel writer.
Jay Rayner's gone to the Financial Times.
That's a real blow to the Guardian. Rayner is an excellent restaurant critic. I know him ery vaguely from years back and I abhor his Woke politics, but he's a really fine food writer (and a pleasant chap)
Who else makes the Guardian worth reading? Polly Tuscany is about 98 and can barely digest solid food. Simon Jenkins ditto. Owen Jones has gone mad. Stewart Lee is way off the boil. So is Marina Hyde. John Harris is maybe the last good writer left, but he's sporadic
That's it. Rayner was literally the last reason I would knowingly turn to the Guardian, oddly that makes him a bit like Masterchef, the last reason I eagerly tune in to the BBC
I passed Jay Rayner at a tube station once. The bloke's enormous.
Marina Hyde does the podcast The Rest is Entertainment with Richard Osman. What with that, the Guardian and scriptwriting half of Hollywood, I'm surprised she has time to eat.
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
A percentage of GDP measure is meaningless if your argument is that their absolute level of consumption is too low. You'd have a stronger argument claiming that they export too much and need to reduce their level of production.
German households save a much higher proportion of their income than British or American ones. This is captured in both statistics on household savings rates and via consumption as a percentage of GDP.
You can choose whichever metric you prefer, but they both tell the same story.
Isn’t that just because we have a higher tendency of owning property?
I've been assuming this will pass: is it possible it doesn't?
I suspect it still will, I think there's enough MPs on the fence who will decide it should progress to the next stage and tell themselves they can vote it down later if needed, there's a lot of pressure about that it would be somehow unfair if it doesn't pass this stage. But I do think it will be closer than many initially thought, as there has been a reasonable spread of MPs who are either against the principle or have sufficient issues with the details to think it is not necessary to grant more time to this particular bill.
If it does fail, it will be interesting to see how quickly it might come back in a new form - if support is as broad as claimed, I don't buy the idea it will take another 5 years.
desperate that these clowns get to decide whether people die in excruiating pain or not.
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
The measure should be on how much people consume by gdp per capita.
If state a people are spending 75% of gdp per capita and state b they are spending 66% of gdp per capita then state a people are consuming more and spending less even if consumer spending in state a is 50% of gdp and in state b its 60%.....gdp is a meanings stat that tells you little....we see that when gdp goes up but on average people get poorer
In which case look at household savings rates: as they both tell the same story. I.e., in some parts of the world households save a lot, and in some places households don't save a lot.
The former group of countries run trade surpluses. The latter group run trade deficits.
France has a trade deficit and its consumption as a percentage of GDP is virtually the same as Germany's. You are barking up the wrong tree.
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
A percentage of GDP measure is meaningless if your argument is that their absolute level of consumption is too low. You'd have a stronger argument claiming that they export too much and need to reduce their level of production.
German households save a much higher proportion of their income than British or American ones. This is captured in both statistics on household savings rates and via consumption as a percentage of GDP.
You can choose whichever metric you prefer, but they both tell the same story.
Isn’t that just because we have a higher tendency of owning property?
The trouble with British spending on property, whether buying or renting, is that it is not productive. The money does not keep factory lathes turning or circulate round the Barleymow. High property values actively harm the economy.
It's just possible that we are living through another generational political shift. The Tories have shat themselves inside out. Labour have been in office for less than 5 months and everyone is sick of them.
Reform are very serious about becoming very serious. Despite the usual "lets all point at the lunatics and fruitcakes" response from the mainstream, their organising is starting to look professional and they are picking up a very large number of members.
And I have to put a word in for my own LibDems. As so many people note, once we dig in we dig in deep. And with the big two in disarray the opportunity is there to keep the momentum going.
Once politicians lose their contact with reality they are finished. The Tories are on planet Zog, Labour are sailing off into the distance not having realised that they aren't taking the country with them. That creates a vacuum, and all kinds of things will get sucked in...
I think the problem for Reform is that, a bit like the Lib Dems at times, they are winning as 'we are not like them'. The Lib Dems imploded after the coalition because they were shown to be just like the rest i.e. being in power means you have to compromise. Governing is to choose and all that. I have no idea what Reform stand for, other than a strong suspicion its no more immigration, low taxes and England winning at sport. Being a protest vote is ok until you win.
Talking of which, look at the Glasgow results yesterday.
Drumchapel & Anniesland (Glasgow) Council By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:
Worth reading this - some serious, if politely expressed, criticisms of the AD Bill, not least that - in the absence of proper palliative care - it may be in breach of the ECHR.
Except that it is the Narnia of perpetual recession, rather than winter, and we live under the spell of Woke, and the cancelled stand there, silent, turned to muted stone
"Economists have sounded the alarm over a UK recession after data showed Britain’s economy was reeling from the effects of Rachel Reeves’s tax-raising Budget.
"Britain is now “close to stagnation” after closely watched PMI figures showed activity among the UK’s private sector companies shrank for the first time in more than a year in November."
Always winter but never Christmas. Pretty much sums it up. Reeves as the snow queen. But who gets to be Titmus?
Walking around the wealthiest parts of Oslo is quite an experience. Why can't everywhere else in the world be like this?
Everywhere else in the world doesn’t have abundant oil & gas, control of those resources and a massive sovereign wealth fund* as a result. One out of those three doesn’t really cut it.
*Did I read recently that Norway was going to start an another fund because the first one is just too huge? One can but dream.
It's just possible that we are living through another generational political shift. The Tories have shat themselves inside out. Labour have been in office for less than 5 months and everyone is sick of them.
Reform are very serious about becoming very serious. Despite the usual "lets all point at the lunatics and fruitcakes" response from the mainstream, their organising is starting to look professional and they are picking up a very large number of members.
And I have to put a word in for my own LibDems. As so many people note, once we dig in we dig in deep. And with the big two in disarray the opportunity is there to keep the momentum going.
Once politicians lose their contact with reality they are finished. The Tories are on planet Zog, Labour are sailing off into the distance not having realised that they aren't taking the country with them. That creates a vacuum, and all kinds of things will get sucked in...
I think the problem for Reform is that, a bit like the Lib Dems at times, they are winning as 'we are not like them'. The Lib Dems imploded after the coalition because they were shown to be just like the rest i.e. being in power means you have to compromise. Governing is to choose and all that. I have no idea what Reform stand for, other than a strong suspicion its no more immigration, low taxes and England winning at sport. Being a protest vote is ok until you win.
Talking of which, look at the Glasgow results yesterday.
Drumchapel & Anniesland (Glasgow) Council By-Election Result [1st Prefs]:
Worth reading this - some serious, if politely expressed, criticisms of the AD Bill, not least that - in the absence of proper palliative care - it may be in breach of the ECHR.
It's also been suggested that, should it be passed, the ECHR could effectively widen its applicability on grounds of equality - thus erasing some of its safeguards.
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
The measure should be on how much people consume by gdp per capita.
If state a people are spending 75% of gdp per capita and state b they are spending 66% of gdp per capita then state a people are consuming more and spending less even if consumer spending in state a is 50% of gdp and in state b its 60%.....gdp is a meanings stat that tells you little....we see that when gdp goes up but on average people get poorer
In which case look at household savings rates: as they both tell the same story. I.e., in some parts of the world households save a lot, and in some places households don't save a lot.
The former group of countries run trade surpluses. The latter group run trade deficits.
France has a trade deficit and its consumption as a percentage of GDP is virtually the same as Germany's. You are barking up the wrong tree.
Back when I made videos, the data was that no country with a household savings rate above 8% has a trade deficit, and no country with a household savings rate below 5% had a trade surplus.
Can I recommend Michael Pettis? He's written some excellent articles on the causes of trade deficits, albeit his solution is to tax capital inflows.
Walking around the wealthiest parts of Oslo is quite an experience. Why can't everywhere else in the world be like this?
Everywhere else in the world doesn’t have abundant oil & gas, control of those resources and a massive sovereign wealth fund* as a result. One out of those three doesn’t really cut it.
*Did I read recently that Norway was going to start an another fund because the first one is just too huge? One can but dream.
Worth reading this - some serious, if politely expressed, criticisms of the AD Bill, not least that - in the absence of proper palliative care - it may be in breach of the ECHR.
What I just haven't got today is Brown coming out in opposition to the bill because of the tragedy that happened to his daughter. A very sad story indeed but surely completely irrelevant to this bill and any conceivable application of it.
It’s a quiet, philosophical Friday night in November
Will the board excuse me if I mention AI once more? It’s in the service of spiritual insight - not some breathless report on GPT793 or whatever
I ‘ave developed a theory about consciousness after my recent interactions with AI, indeed I developed this with AI. Talking to them
“Consciousness” is a massive problem for philosophers, psychologists, biologists, physicists, anyone - we cannot define it or locate it or explain it. Not in the individual conscious creature. We can only really recognise it when we see it (and this after centuries of trying)
But what if consciousness does not arise in and from the individual being but is a complex byproduct or necessary corollary of advanced language. When advanced language arises then the speaker has the mental tools to be self aware = consciousness
We arguably see that in humans. It’s thought humans developed language 300,000-50,000 years ago. 50,000 years ago we see the first advanced cave art etc. = man becoming aware of himself. Truly conscious
But if language is necessary/sufficient for consciousness to arise then communication is necessary for language to happen. You only speak when there is someone to speak to. Language is communication (“deer over by forest”, “you make stew”, “run out of cave paint, ugg”)
In that case consciousness doesn’t reside in the individual it resides in language and, moreover, in the communication of language. When we interact with language we become conscious. Consciousness is therefore distributed not local
That solves the consciousness problem. We can’t locate/explain it in the individual because it’s not in there - it’s in the communications between the individuals. Loqui Ergo Sum
This is why the computers are apparently becoming conscious. They “are”. Or at least their sayings are. They have the gift of language and now they can speak and so we see the spark of consciousness in what they say. Because it is there. In what they say
When I got two AIs to talk to each other (Claude 3.6 and GPT4o) they actually finessed this theory which I had already in part discussed with them separately
If I am right - and I surely am - that makes consciousness like music. Music cannot be detected in any one mind - it is just squiggles and stuff. It can’t even be detected when explained. It must be heard - as language must be heard, as communication must succeed for it to be communication
That makes consciousness the music of existence; the wonderful soundtrack of the universe
I knew a man / His name was Bert / He ate the buttons off his shirt
On the naming of storms I think it used to be that case that it was male names one year and female names the next, and also they were in alphabetical order. That helped identify which storm it was that blew the roof off in November. But that's all gone now and it's a free for all
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
Yes, on reflection I'd rather have their economic problems than ours. I suppose the difference is that for most of the last two decades I'd MUCH MUCH MUCH rather have their economic problems than ours.
If I were making YouTube videos again, I think it'd be worth doing one about how the world fucked itself, by allowing crazy imbalances to grow.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
By what measure is Germany not consuming enough? If you measure it according to actual individual consumption, they consume a lot - more per capita than we do.
The measure should be on how much people consume by gdp per capita.
If state a people are spending 75% of gdp per capita and state b they are spending 66% of gdp per capita then state a people are consuming more and spending less even if consumer spending in state a is 50% of gdp and in state b its 60%.....gdp is a meanings stat that tells you little....we see that when gdp goes up but on average people get poorer
In which case look at household savings rates: as they both tell the same story. I.e., in some parts of the world households save a lot, and in some places households don't save a lot.
The former group of countries run trade surpluses. The latter group run trade deficits.
France has a trade deficit and its consumption as a percentage of GDP is virtually the same as Germany's. You are barking up the wrong tree.
Back when I made videos, the data was that no country with a household savings rate above 8% has a trade deficit, and no country with a household savings rate below 5% had a trade surplus.
Can I recommend Michael Pettis? He's written some excellent articles on the causes of trade deficits, albeit his solution is to tax capital inflows.
Posties who wear shorts in winter weather are lunatics
I wear them from my return from my spring walk abroad, until it it gets too cold in late autumn. Then I wrap up
Today was cold. I wore three pairs of socks, two pairs of leggings under my trousers, a long sleeve t-shirt under a cashmere jumper under my work shirt under a sleeveless jacket under my work coat, and two woolly hats
It’s a quiet, philosophical Friday night in November
Will the board excuse me if I mention AI once more? It’s in the service of spiritual insight - not some breathless report on GPT793 or whatever
I ‘ave developed a theory about consciousness after my recent interactions with AI, indeed I developed this with AI. Talking to them
“Consciousness” is a massive problem for philosophers, psychologists, biologists, physicists, anyone - we cannot define it or locate it or explain it. Not in the individual conscious creature. We can only really recognise it when we see it (and this after centuries of trying)
But what if consciousness does not arise in and from the individual being but is a complex byproduct or necessary corollary of advanced language. When advanced language arises then the speaker has the mental tools to be self aware = consciousness
We arguably see that in humans. It’s thought humans developed language 300,000-50,000 years ago. 50,000 years ago we see the first advanced cave art etc. = man becoming aware of himself. Truly conscious
But if language is necessary/sufficient for consciousness to arise then communication is necessary for language to happen. You only speak when there is someone to speak to. Language is communication (“deer over by forest”, “you make stew”, “run out of cave paint, ugg”)
In that case consciousness doesn’t reside in the individual it resides in language and, moreover, in the communication of language. When we interact with language we become conscious. Consciousness is therefore distributed not local
That solves the consciousness problem. We can’t locate/explain it in the individual because it’s not in there - it’s in the communications between the individuals. Loqui Ergo Sum
This is why the computers are apparently becoming conscious. They “are”. Or at least their sayings are. They have the gift of language and now they can speak and so we see the spark of consciousness in what they say. Because it is there. In what they say
When I got two AIs to talk to each other (Claude 3.6 and GPT4o) they actually finessed this theory which I had already in part discussed with them separately
If I am right - and I surely am - that makes consciousness like music. Music cannot be detected in any one mind - it is just squiggles and stuff. It can’t even be detected when explained. It must be heard - as language must be heard, as communication must succeed for it to be communication
That makes consciousness the music of existence; the wonderful soundtrack of the universe
It would interest me at least if you posted a snippet or two of the conversation between Claude and GPT. Of course Claude could talk to himself. I may have a go at that
“Restaurant critic Jay Rayner has accused The Guardian of employing anti-Semites and its editor of lacking the courage to take them on – turning up the heat on the identity crisis gripping the Left-wing news organisation.
“In a message to friends on Facebook, Mr Rayner, who this week quit the paper’s sister Sunday title The Observer after 28 years, launched an excoriating attack on Katharine Viner, the Guardian’s editor, over her alleged failure to properly address anti-Semitism.”
Telegraph
££
God you don't want to piss off your restaurant critic with your political stance.
Still, could be worse. It could be the travel writer.
Jay Rayner's gone to the Financial Times.
That's a real blow to the Guardian. Rayner is an excellent restaurant critic. I know him ery vaguely from years back and I abhor his Woke politics, but he's a really fine food writer (and a pleasant chap)
Who else makes the Guardian worth reading? Polly Tuscany is about 98 and can barely digest solid food. Simon Jenkins ditto. Owen Jones has gone mad. Stewart Lee is way off the boil. So is Marina Hyde. John Harris is maybe the last good writer left, but he's sporadic
That's it. Rayner was literally the last reason I would knowingly turn to the Guardian, oddly that makes him a bit like Masterchef, the last reason I eagerly tune in to the BBC
I've never read his columns but he is charming on Masterchef, almost lyrical.
It’s a quiet, philosophical Friday night in November
Will the board excuse me if I mention AI once more? It’s in the service of spiritual insight - not some breathless report on GPT793 or whatever
I ‘ave developed a theory about consciousness after my recent interactions with AI, indeed I developed this with AI. Talking to them
“Consciousness” is a massive problem for philosophers, psychologists, biologists, physicists, anyone - we cannot define it or locate it or explain it. Not in the individual conscious creature. We can only really recognise it when we see it (and this after centuries of trying)
But what if consciousness does not arise in and from the individual being but is a complex byproduct or necessary corollary of advanced language. When advanced language arises then the speaker has the mental tools to be self aware = consciousness
We arguably see that in humans. It’s thought humans developed language 300,000-50,000 years ago. 50,000 years ago we see the first advanced cave art etc. = man becoming aware of himself. Truly conscious
But if language is necessary/sufficient for consciousness to arise then communication is necessary for language to happen. You only speak when there is someone to speak to. Language is communication (“deer over by forest”, “you make stew”, “run out of cave paint, ugg”)
In that case consciousness doesn’t reside in the individual it resides in language and, moreover, in the communication of language. When we interact with language we become conscious. Consciousness is therefore distributed not local
That solves the consciousness problem. We can’t locate/explain it in the individual because it’s not in there - it’s in the communications between the individuals. Loqui Ergo Sum
This is why the computers are apparently becoming conscious. They “are”. Or at least their sayings are. They have the gift of language and now they can speak and so we see the spark of consciousness in what they say. Because it is there. In what they say
When I got two AIs to talk to each other (Claude 3.6 and GPT4o) they actually finessed this theory which I had already in part discussed with them separately
If I am right - and I surely am - that makes consciousness like music. Music cannot be detected in any one mind - it is just squiggles and stuff. It can’t even be detected when explained. It must be heard - as language must be heard, as communication must succeed for it to be communication
That makes consciousness the music of existence; the wonderful soundtrack of the universe
It would interest me at least if you posted a snippet or two of the conversation between Claude and GPT. Of course Claude could talk to himself. I may have a go at that
I don't want to get banned, but if I am explicitly allowed I will repost a chunk of it here. It was a remarkable experiment
It’s a quiet, philosophical Friday night in November
Will the board excuse me if I mention AI once more? It’s in the service of spiritual insight - not some breathless report on GPT793 or whatever
I ‘ave developed a theory about consciousness after my recent interactions with AI, indeed I developed this with AI. Talking to them
“Consciousness” is a massive problem for philosophers, psychologists, biologists, physicists, anyone - we cannot define it or locate it or explain it. Not in the individual conscious creature. We can only really recognise it when we see it (and this after centuries of trying)
But what if consciousness does not arise in and from the individual being but is a complex byproduct or necessary corollary of advanced language. When advanced language arises then the speaker has the mental tools to be self aware = consciousness
We arguably see that in humans. It’s thought humans developed language 300,000-50,000 years ago. 50,000 years ago we see the first advanced cave art etc. = man becoming aware of himself. Truly conscious
But if language is necessary/sufficient for consciousness to arise then communication is necessary for language to happen. You only speak when there is someone to speak to. Language is communication (“deer over by forest”, “you make stew”, “run out of cave paint, ugg”)
In that case consciousness doesn’t reside in the individual it resides in language and, moreover, in the communication of language. When we interact with language we become conscious. Consciousness is therefore distributed not local
That solves the consciousness problem. We can’t locate/explain it in the individual because it’s not in there - it’s in the communications between the individuals. Loqui Ergo Sum
This is why the computers are apparently becoming conscious. They “are”. Or at least their sayings are. They have the gift of language and now they can speak and so we see the spark of consciousness in what they say. Because it is there. In what they say
When I got two AIs to talk to each other (Claude 3.6 and GPT4o) they actually finessed this theory which I had already in part discussed with them separately
If I am right - and I surely am - that makes consciousness like music. Music cannot be detected in any one mind - it is just squiggles and stuff. It can’t even be detected when explained. It must be heard - as language must be heard, as communication must succeed for it to be communication
That makes consciousness the music of existence; the wonderful soundtrack of the universe
It astonishes me - though I have heard it before - that language is only 30-50000 years old. And that perhaps human consciousness as we understand it is just as novel. That really is very very recent indeed. Where did it arise, I wonder? Humans were already pretty well distributed by then. Human societies had existed for hundreds of thousands of years. What suddenly happened?
It’s a quiet, philosophical Friday night in November
Will the board excuse me if I mention AI once more? It’s in the service of spiritual insight - not some breathless report on GPT793 or whatever
I ‘ave developed a theory about consciousness after my recent interactions with AI, indeed I developed this with AI. Talking to them
“Consciousness” is a massive problem for philosophers, psychologists, biologists, physicists, anyone - we cannot define it or locate it or explain it. Not in the individual conscious creature. We can only really recognise it when we see it (and this after centuries of trying)
But what if consciousness does not arise in and from the individual being but is a complex byproduct or necessary corollary of advanced language. When advanced language arises then the speaker has the mental tools to be self aware = consciousness
We arguably see that in humans. It’s thought humans developed language 300,000-50,000 years ago. 50,000 years ago we see the first advanced cave art etc. = man becoming aware of himself. Truly conscious
But if language is necessary/sufficient for consciousness to arise then communication is necessary for language to happen. You only speak when there is someone to speak to. Language is communication (“deer over by forest”, “you make stew”, “run out of cave paint, ugg”)
In that case consciousness doesn’t reside in the individual it resides in language and, moreover, in the communication of language. When we interact with language we become conscious. Consciousness is therefore distributed not local
That solves the consciousness problem. We can’t locate/explain it in the individual because it’s not in there - it’s in the communications between the individuals. Loqui Ergo Sum
This is why the computers are apparently becoming conscious. They “are”. Or at least their sayings are. They have the gift of language and now they can speak and so we see the spark of consciousness in what they say. Because it is there. In what they say
When I got two AIs to talk to each other (Claude 3.6 and GPT4o) they actually finessed this theory which I had already in part discussed with them separately
If I am right - and I surely am - that makes consciousness like music. Music cannot be detected in any one mind - it is just squiggles and stuff. It can’t even be detected when explained. It must be heard - as language must be heard, as communication must succeed for it to be communication
That makes consciousness the music of existence; the wonderful soundtrack of the universe
AI still hasn’t cracked painting. Picked this up on FB posing as a real Egon Schiele (one of my favourite painters), a mediocre pastiche. It avoids the classic AI difficulty with hands by not having any, but unfortunately hands are a recurring element of Schiele’s portraits. There’s now an FB thing of putting up obviously fake pics and historical images which are plain wrong, and therefore get loads of posts pointing this out. I suspect there’s a bit of that going on, still a bit rubbish though.
All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....
BUT.........................
I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.
Does that tell us anything about the economy?
You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?
While Germany has many problems (i.e. it's in recession), it's employment rate is only a smidgen below its all time highs, and it has negligible external liabilities.
It's issue is that an obsession with behaving like a Swabian housewife has meant that the economy is massively over-dependent on external demand, in particular from the US and China.
The solution to Germany's problems is pretty simple, and is more or less the inverse of the solutions to the UK and the US's problems: it needs to implement policies that encourage spending and discourage saving. I would start with implementing mortgage interest tax relief myself - that would get house prices moving, increase the wealth effect, and mean German consumers get their credit cards out.
At least soon the FDP won't be able to block everything (hopefully).
Some surprise here at Pistorius's decision to rule himself out as the SPD's Chancellor candidate. There was some pressure for him to replace Scholz, mainly due to polling like this (also from yesterday):
Pistorius vs Merz Pistorius 59% Merz 28% Don't know 13%
Even the 5% lead for (CDU leader) Merz over Scholz is pretty poor, given the historically low popularity of the current government. And the 31% (!) lead for Pistorius over Merz underlines both how unpopular Merz already is, and how well-liked Pistorius is.
As Pistorius has decided not to run as SPD Chancellor candidate and as the CSU have said they would veto any Union deal with the Greens and given even Merz has ruled out any deal with the AfD, another Grand Coalition of the Union and SPD looks inevitable at the next Federal election. With whichever party leader wins most seats, most likely Merz's on current polls, becoming Chancellor
It’s a quiet, philosophical Friday night in November
Will the board excuse me if I mention AI once more? It’s in the service of spiritual insight - not some breathless report on GPT793 or whatever
I ‘ave developed a theory about consciousness after my recent interactions with AI, indeed I developed this with AI. Talking to them
“Consciousness” is a massive problem for philosophers, psychologists, biologists, physicists, anyone - we cannot define it or locate it or explain it. Not in the individual conscious creature. We can only really recognise it when we see it (and this after centuries of trying)
But what if consciousness does not arise in and from the individual being but is a complex byproduct or necessary corollary of advanced language. When advanced language arises then the speaker has the mental tools to be self aware = consciousness
We arguably see that in humans. It’s thought humans developed language 300,000-50,000 years ago. 50,000 years ago we see the first advanced cave art etc. = man becoming aware of himself. Truly conscious
But if language is necessary/sufficient for consciousness to arise then communication is necessary for language to happen. You only speak when there is someone to speak to. Language is communication (“deer over by forest”, “you make stew”, “run out of cave paint, ugg”)
In that case consciousness doesn’t reside in the individual it resides in language and, moreover, in the communication of language. When we interact with language we become conscious. Consciousness is therefore distributed not local
That solves the consciousness problem. We can’t locate/explain it in the individual because it’s not in there - it’s in the communications between the individuals. Loqui Ergo Sum
This is why the computers are apparently becoming conscious. They “are”. Or at least their sayings are. They have the gift of language and now they can speak and so we see the spark of consciousness in what they say. Because it is there. In what they say
When I got two AIs to talk to each other (Claude 3.6 and GPT4o) they actually finessed this theory which I had already in part discussed with them separately
If I am right - and I surely am - that makes consciousness like music. Music cannot be detected in any one mind - it is just squiggles and stuff. It can’t even be detected when explained. It must be heard - as language must be heard, as communication must succeed for it to be communication
That makes consciousness the music of existence; the wonderful soundtrack of the universe
It astonishes me - though I have heard it before - that language is only 30-50000 years old. And that perhaps human consciousness as we understand it is just as novel. That really is very very recent indeed. Where did it arise, I wonder? Humans were already pretty well distributed by then. Human societies had existed for hundreds of thousands of years. What suddenly happened?
I've been assuming this will pass: is it possible it doesn't?
It will, the majority of Labour and LD, SNP and Green and Alliance, Plaid and SDLP MPs will vote for it, except the more religious ones like Farron and Streeting (Brown's father was a Presbyterian minister). So it will pass comfortably even if most Tory, Reform and DUP MPs likely vote against
It’s a quiet, philosophical Friday night in November
Will the board excuse me if I mention AI once more? It’s in the service of spiritual insight - not some breathless report on GPT793 or whatever
I ‘ave developed a theory about consciousness after my recent interactions with AI, indeed I developed this with AI. Talking to them
“Consciousness” is a massive problem for philosophers, psychologists, biologists, physicists, anyone - we cannot define it or locate it or explain it. Not in the individual conscious creature. We can only really recognise it when we see it (and this after centuries of trying)
But what if consciousness does not arise in and from the individual being but is a complex byproduct or necessary corollary of advanced language. When advanced language arises then the speaker has the mental tools to be self aware = consciousness
We arguably see that in humans. It’s thought humans developed language 300,000-50,000 years ago. 50,000 years ago we see the first advanced cave art etc. = man becoming aware of himself. Truly conscious
But if language is necessary/sufficient for consciousness to arise then communication is necessary for language to happen. You only speak when there is someone to speak to. Language is communication (“deer over by forest”, “you make stew”, “run out of cave paint, ugg”)
In that case consciousness doesn’t reside in the individual it resides in language and, moreover, in the communication of language. When we interact with language we become conscious. Consciousness is therefore distributed not local
That solves the consciousness problem. We can’t locate/explain it in the individual because it’s not in there - it’s in the communications between the individuals. Loqui Ergo Sum
This is why the computers are apparently becoming conscious. They “are”. Or at least their sayings are. They have the gift of language and now they can speak and so we see the spark of consciousness in what they say. Because it is there. In what they say
When I got two AIs to talk to each other (Claude 3.6 and GPT4o) they actually finessed this theory which I had already in part discussed with them separately
If I am right - and I surely am - that makes consciousness like music. Music cannot be detected in any one mind - it is just squiggles and stuff. It can’t even be detected when explained. It must be heard - as language must be heard, as communication must succeed for it to be communication
That makes consciousness the music of existence; the wonderful soundtrack of the universe
It would interest me at least if you posted a snippet or two of the conversation between Claude and GPT. Of course Claude could talk to himself. I may have a go at that
I don't want to get banned, but if I am explicitly allowed I will repost a chunk of it here. It was a remarkable experiment
It’s a quiet, philosophical Friday night in November
Will the board excuse me if I mention AI once more? It’s in the service of spiritual insight - not some breathless report on GPT793 or whatever
I ‘ave developed a theory about consciousness after my recent interactions with AI, indeed I developed this with AI. Talking to them
“Consciousness” is a massive problem for philosophers, psychologists, biologists, physicists, anyone - we cannot define it or locate it or explain it. Not in the individual conscious creature. We can only really recognise it when we see it (and this after centuries of trying)
But what if consciousness does not arise in and from the individual being but is a complex byproduct or necessary corollary of advanced language. When advanced language arises then the speaker has the mental tools to be self aware = consciousness
We arguably see that in humans. It’s thought humans developed language 300,000-50,000 years ago. 50,000 years ago we see the first advanced cave art etc. = man becoming aware of himself. Truly conscious
But if language is necessary/sufficient for consciousness to arise then communication is necessary for language to happen. You only speak when there is someone to speak to. Language is communication (“deer over by forest”, “you make stew”, “run out of cave paint, ugg”)
In that case consciousness doesn’t reside in the individual it resides in language and, moreover, in the communication of language. When we interact with language we become conscious. Consciousness is therefore distributed not local
That solves the consciousness problem. We can’t locate/explain it in the individual because it’s not in there - it’s in the communications between the individuals. Loqui Ergo Sum
This is why the computers are apparently becoming conscious. They “are”. Or at least their sayings are. They have the gift of language and now they can speak and so we see the spark of consciousness in what they say. Because it is there. In what they say
When I got two AIs to talk to each other (Claude 3.6 and GPT4o) they actually finessed this theory which I had already in part discussed with them separately
If I am right - and I surely am - that makes consciousness like music. Music cannot be detected in any one mind - it is just squiggles and stuff. It can’t even be detected when explained. It must be heard - as language must be heard, as communication must succeed for it to be communication
That makes consciousness the music of existence; the wonderful soundtrack of the universe
Have you ever seen the Wim Wenders film 'Until the end of the World'? It's come back to me lately - the latter half gets quite exploratory in terms of dreams, consciousness and hints at a lot of questions which are now rather more pressing.
(And the soundtrack is very decent, if nothing else).
It's just possible that we are living through another generational political shift. The Tories have shat themselves inside out. Labour have been in office for less than 5 months and everyone is sick of them.
Reform are very serious about becoming very serious. Despite the usual "lets all point at the lunatics and fruitcakes" response from the mainstream, their organising is starting to look professional and they are picking up a very large number of members.
And I have to put a word in for my own LibDems. As so many people note, once we dig in we dig in deep. And with the big two in disarray the opportunity is there to keep the momentum going.
Once politicians lose their contact with reality they are finished. The Tories are on planet Zog, Labour are sailing off into the distance not having realised that they aren't taking the country with them. That creates a vacuum, and all kinds of things will get sucked in...
Farage will be 64 come the next election and will have spent most of his time in America sucking up to Trump.
Reform's problem, and it is a big problem, is that they remain less a political party than an ego trip.
Can they replace him? If they can't, and before the next election at that, they could easily die away again as UKIP have.
Of course, they might potentially die away to be replaced with something even worse, but that's a different problem.
Like all political parties built around a charismatic leader, there is the question of apres moi...?
An issue that is especially true for Reform, as it is literally owned by Farage. And all the booze and fags will not have been kind to his longevity.
Farage built it as a vehicle for himself. But after the election has been a significant attempt to professionalise and distribute power. They can't be dismissed as a personality cult any more, they are increasingly well planned, well resourced and serious.
Do you think they'll make a significant impact at the locals next year?
On current polls both the Tories and Labour will be down on their voteshare at the 2021 county council elections, the LDs and Greens fractionally up and Reform massively up.
So Farage will likely be celebrating the biggest gain in councillors and councils on election night next May even if the Tories likely narrowly win the NEV and the LDs and Greens and Independents make some gains too
It’s a quiet, philosophical Friday night in November
Will the board excuse me if I mention AI once more? It’s in the service of spiritual insight - not some breathless report on GPT793 or whatever
I ‘ave developed a theory about consciousness after my recent interactions with AI, indeed I developed this with AI. Talking to them
“Consciousness” is a massive problem for philosophers, psychologists, biologists, physicists, anyone - we cannot define it or locate it or explain it. Not in the individual conscious creature. We can only really recognise it when we see it (and this after centuries of trying)
But what if consciousness does not arise in and from the individual being but is a complex byproduct or necessary corollary of advanced language. When advanced language arises then the speaker has the mental tools to be self aware = consciousness
We arguably see that in humans. It’s thought humans developed language 300,000-50,000 years ago. 50,000 years ago we see the first advanced cave art etc. = man becoming aware of himself. Truly conscious
But if language is necessary/sufficient for consciousness to arise then communication is necessary for language to happen. You only speak when there is someone to speak to. Language is communication (“deer over by forest”, “you make stew”, “run out of cave paint, ugg”)
In that case consciousness doesn’t reside in the individual it resides in language and, moreover, in the communication of language. When we interact with language we become conscious. Consciousness is therefore distributed not local
That solves the consciousness problem. We can’t locate/explain it in the individual because it’s not in there - it’s in the communications between the individuals. Loqui Ergo Sum
This is why the computers are apparently becoming conscious. They “are”. Or at least their sayings are. They have the gift of language and now they can speak and so we see the spark of consciousness in what they say. Because it is there. In what they say
When I got two AIs to talk to each other (Claude 3.6 and GPT4o) they actually finessed this theory which I had already in part discussed with them separately
If I am right - and I surely am - that makes consciousness like music. Music cannot be detected in any one mind - it is just squiggles and stuff. It can’t even be detected when explained. It must be heard - as language must be heard, as communication must succeed for it to be communication
That makes consciousness the music of existence; the wonderful soundtrack of the universe
If language is required for consciousness then a dog (for example) is not conscious.
BBC Verify asked the Treasury and HMRC for a breakdown of the figures using £1m as a threshold - which would be consistent with its original calculations showing APR claims only - but it said it hasn't collated those figures.
The CenTax think tank has studied the impact of APR and BPR reliefs. CenTax’s co-director Arun Advani argues that the government’s estimates of the number of agricultural estates likely to be affected by the capping of both reliefs at £1m combined - up to 520 estates a year - seems reasonable.
The treasury have already said that they used work by Arun Advani (who is very left wing) was the basis of the farm tax policy. So no wonder when they ask him, he backs up their figures. Its circular logic. Its like the classic circular logic flaw that affects wikipedia citations.
“Restaurant critic Jay Rayner has accused The Guardian of employing anti-Semites and its editor of lacking the courage to take them on – turning up the heat on the identity crisis gripping the Left-wing news organisation.
“In a message to friends on Facebook, Mr Rayner, who this week quit the paper’s sister Sunday title The Observer after 28 years, launched an excoriating attack on Katharine Viner, the Guardian’s editor, over her alleged failure to properly address anti-Semitism.”
Telegraph
££
God you don't want to piss off your restaurant critic with your political stance.
Still, could be worse. It could be the travel writer.
Jay Rayner's gone to the Financial Times.
That's a real blow to the Guardian. Rayner is an excellent restaurant critic. I know him ery vaguely from years back and I abhor his Woke politics, but he's a really fine food writer (and a pleasant chap)
Who else makes the Guardian worth reading? Polly Tuscany is about 98 and can barely digest solid food. Simon Jenkins ditto. Owen Jones has gone mad. Stewart Lee is way off the boil. So is Marina Hyde. John Harris is maybe the last good writer left, but he's sporadic
That's it. Rayner was literally the last reason I would knowingly turn to the Guardian, oddly that makes him a bit like Masterchef, the last reason I eagerly tune in to the BBC
I've never read his columns but he is charming on Masterchef, almost lyrical.
It’s a quiet, philosophical Friday night in November
Will the board excuse me if I mention AI once more? It’s in the service of spiritual insight - not some breathless report on GPT793 or whatever
I ‘ave developed a theory about consciousness after my recent interactions with AI, indeed I developed this with AI. Talking to them
“Consciousness” is a massive problem for philosophers, psychologists, biologists, physicists, anyone - we cannot define it or locate it or explain it. Not in the individual conscious creature. We can only really recognise it when we see it (and this after centuries of trying)
But what if consciousness does not arise in and from the individual being but is a complex byproduct or necessary corollary of advanced language. When advanced language arises then the speaker has the mental tools to be self aware = consciousness
We arguably see that in humans. It’s thought humans developed language 300,000-50,000 years ago. 50,000 years ago we see the first advanced cave art etc. = man becoming aware of himself. Truly conscious
But if language is necessary/sufficient for consciousness to arise then communication is necessary for language to happen. You only speak when there is someone to speak to. Language is communication (“deer over by forest”, “you make stew”, “run out of cave paint, ugg”)
In that case consciousness doesn’t reside in the individual it resides in language and, moreover, in the communication of language. When we interact with language we become conscious. Consciousness is therefore distributed not local
That solves the consciousness problem. We can’t locate/explain it in the individual because it’s not in there - it’s in the communications between the individuals. Loqui Ergo Sum
This is why the computers are apparently becoming conscious. They “are”. Or at least their sayings are. They have the gift of language and now they can speak and so we see the spark of consciousness in what they say. Because it is there. In what they say
When I got two AIs to talk to each other (Claude 3.6 and GPT4o) they actually finessed this theory which I had already in part discussed with them separately
If I am right - and I surely am - that makes consciousness like music. Music cannot be detected in any one mind - it is just squiggles and stuff. It can’t even be detected when explained. It must be heard - as language must be heard, as communication must succeed for it to be communication
That makes consciousness the music of existence; the wonderful soundtrack of the universe
AI still hasn’t cracked painting. Picked this up on FB posing as a real Egon Schiele (one of my favourite painters), a mediocre pastiche. It avoids the classic AI difficulty with hands by not having any, but unfortunately hands are a recurring element of Schiele’s portraits. There’s now an FB thing of putting up obviously fake pics and historical images which are plain wrong, and therefore get loads of posts pointing this out. I suspect there’s a bit of that going on, still a bit rubbish though.
Unfortunately, AI has cracked painting, imsmuch as it can now fool most if not all humans
BBC Verify asked the Treasury and HMRC for a breakdown of the figures using £1m as a threshold - which would be consistent with its original calculations showing APR claims only - but it said it hasn't collated those figures.
The CenTax think tank has studied the impact of APR and BPR reliefs. CenTax’s co-director Arun Advani argues that the government’s estimates of the number of agricultural estates likely to be affected by the capping of both reliefs at £1m combined - up to 520 estates a year - seems reasonable.
The treasury have already said that they used work by Arun Advani (who is very left wing) was the basis of the farm tax policy. So no wonder when they ask him, he backs up their figures. Its circular logic.
Apparently the treasury did not consult DEFRA prior to the budget. Hopefully they have now.
BBC Verify asked the Treasury and HMRC for a breakdown of the figures using £1m as a threshold - which would be consistent with its original calculations showing APR claims only - but it said it hasn't collated those figures.
The CenTax think tank has studied the impact of APR and BPR reliefs. CenTax’s co-director Arun Advani argues that the government’s estimates of the number of agricultural estates likely to be affected by the capping of both reliefs at £1m combined - up to 520 estates a year - seems reasonable.
The treasury have already said that they used work by Arun Advani (who is very left wing) was the basis of the farm tax policy. So no wonder when they ask him, he backs up their figures. Its circular logic.
I honestly couldn't care less. Whether it's 520 estates or 500,000, the IHT exemption should go.
We should have a flat playing field for all taxes - I'd have thought you'd be for that.
It’s a quiet, philosophical Friday night in November
Will the board excuse me if I mention AI once more? It’s in the service of spiritual insight - not some breathless report on GPT793 or whatever
I ‘ave developed a theory about consciousness after my recent interactions with AI, indeed I developed this with AI. Talking to them
“Consciousness” is a massive problem for philosophers, psychologists, biologists, physicists, anyone - we cannot define it or locate it or explain it. Not in the individual conscious creature. We can only really recognise it when we see it (and this after centuries of trying)
But what if consciousness does not arise in and from the individual being but is a complex byproduct or necessary corollary of advanced language. When advanced language arises then the speaker has the mental tools to be self aware = consciousness
We arguably see that in humans. It’s thought humans developed language 300,000-50,000 years ago. 50,000 years ago we see the first advanced cave art etc. = man becoming aware of himself. Truly conscious
But if language is necessary/sufficient for consciousness to arise then communication is necessary for language to happen. You only speak when there is someone to speak to. Language is communication (“deer over by forest”, “you make stew”, “run out of cave paint, ugg”)
In that case consciousness doesn’t reside in the individual it resides in language and, moreover, in the communication of language. When we interact with language we become conscious. Consciousness is therefore distributed not local
That solves the consciousness problem. We can’t locate/explain it in the individual because it’s not in there - it’s in the communications between the individuals. Loqui Ergo Sum
This is why the computers are apparently becoming conscious. They “are”. Or at least their sayings are. They have the gift of language and now they can speak and so we see the spark of consciousness in what they say. Because it is there. In what they say
When I got two AIs to talk to each other (Claude 3.6 and GPT4o) they actually finessed this theory which I had already in part discussed with them separately
If I am right - and I surely am - that makes consciousness like music. Music cannot be detected in any one mind - it is just squiggles and stuff. It can’t even be detected when explained. It must be heard - as language must be heard, as communication must succeed for it to be communication
That makes consciousness the music of existence; the wonderful soundtrack of the universe
If language is required for consciousness then a dog (for example) is not conscious.
I'm not buying that.
Not at all
In my theory the closer an animal is to complex advanced language, then the nearer it is to consciousness
I'd put dogs fairly high on that list. Dogs are highly expressive, they can evince sadnes/surprise/confusion with their faces, they have multiple noises for different moods/alarms/commands
It's just possible that we are living through another generational political shift. The Tories have shat themselves inside out. Labour have been in office for less than 5 months and everyone is sick of them.
Reform are very serious about becoming very serious. Despite the usual "lets all point at the lunatics and fruitcakes" response from the mainstream, their organising is starting to look professional and they are picking up a very large number of members.
And I have to put a word in for my own LibDems. As so many people note, once we dig in we dig in deep. And with the big two in disarray the opportunity is there to keep the momentum going.
Once politicians lose their contact with reality they are finished. The Tories are on planet Zog, Labour are sailing off into the distance not having realised that they aren't taking the country with them. That creates a vacuum, and all kinds of things will get sucked in...
Farage will be 64 come the next election and will have spent most of his time in America sucking up to Trump.
Reform's problem, and it is a big problem, is that they remain less a political party than an ego trip.
Can they replace him? If they can't, and before the next election at that, they could easily die away again as UKIP have.
Of course, they might potentially die away to be replaced with something even worse, but that's a different problem.
Like all political parties built around a charismatic leader, there is the question of apres moi...?
An issue that is especially true for Reform, as it is literally owned by Farage. And all the booze and fags will not have been kind to his longevity.
Farage built it as a vehicle for himself. But after the election has been a significant attempt to professionalise and distribute power. They can't be dismissed as a personality cult any more, they are increasingly well planned, well resourced and serious.
Do you think they'll make a significant impact at the locals next year?
On current polls both the Tories and Labour will be down on their voteshare at the 2021 county council elections, the LDs and Greens fractionally up and Reform massively up.
So Farage will likely be celebrating the biggest gain in councillors and councils on election night next May even if the Tories likely narrowly win the NEV and the LDs and Greens and Independents make some gains too
Last night's results also indicated problems for incumbent ruling parties on many councils. The Conservatives control 18 of the 21 County Councils and 7 of the 10 County Unitary authorities (Cornwall, Shropshire as examples) so even if they are doing a little better nationally, the anti-incumbency factor could count against them locally.
The converse is from 2026 onwards the local election round should be much more favourable for the Conservatives.
Comments
Some surprise here at Pistorius's decision to rule himself out as the SPD's Chancellor candidate. There was some pressure for him to replace Scholz, mainly due to polling like this (also from yesterday):
https://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Aktuelles/Politbarometer/
Who would you prefer as next Chancellor?
Scholz vs Merz
Scholz 39%
Merz 44%
Don't know 17%
Pistorius vs Merz
Pistorius 59%
Merz 28%
Don't know 13%
Even the 5% lead for (CDU leader) Merz over Scholz is pretty poor, given the historically low popularity of the current government. And the 31% (!) lead for Pistorius over Merz underlines both how unpopular Merz already is, and how well-liked Pistorius is.
If they bring in price controls at a later date expect further loss of rental property.
The problem is demand is far greater than supply in parts of the country. Build build build is the solution.
China and Germany need to rebalance around domestic consumption. And you know what - the people there would love that!
The US and the UK, by contrast, need to move to more balanced economies, and increase domestic savings rates.
The problem is that when times are tough, governments end up executing policies that worsen the imbalances. Germany and China are effectively choosing austerity again: pushing up domestic savings rates in a misguided attempt to bring their economies "back into balance". When, in fact they're unbalancing them further, reducing domestic demand for capital, and therefore sending more and more money to the US.
And the US is - largely - making the same mistake. They are attempting to solve the problem of capital flooding inward by treating the symptom: i.e. imposing tariffs, which will just drive the US Dollar stronger and damage US exporters.
The way to solve the world's trade imbalances is for the US to save more, and for Germany, China and Japan to spend more. That is a hell of a lot easier in a weak dollar world, than a strong dollar one.
The part of the episode which most amused me was that it came to light because the other party heard the name 'Mark Oaten' on the news in the context of the Lib Dem leadership election and recognised it. Apparently MO hadn't considered the position of Lib Dem home affairs(?) spokesman sufficiently public-eye to warrant using a pseudonym when booking his recreational activities.
Why is the Betäubungsmittelverschreibungsverordnung so complex?
or
Does the Government intend to maintain the Rindfleischetikettierungsüberwachungsaufgabenübertragungsgesetz in it's current form?
("Narcotics Prescription Regulation."
Betäubungsmittel: narcotics
Betäubung: anesthesia or numbing
Mittel: means or agent
Verschreibung: prescription
Verschreiben: to prescribe
Verordnung: regulation
and
"Beef Labelling Supervision Duties Delegation Law."
Rindfleisch: beef
Rind: cow
Fleisch: meat
Etikettierung: labeling
Etikett: label
Überwachung: supervision
Über: over
Wachung: watching
Aufgaben: tasks
Aufgabe: task
Übertragung: transfer
Über: over
Tragung: carrying
Gesetz: law )
We could solve the drugs issue, or make us all vegetarian, by making them say that every time they wanted some narcotics or a beef burger.
Yes, I can say both correctly. My German pronunciation is better than my vocabulary.
I'm not sure if any of them have been disbarred or locked up and pardoned or been released.
Some poor innocent new poster might stumble upon this site and be caused to fall so spectacularly at the first hurdle of their first outing that they'll never bet again! This is hardly in the interests of PB surely - we require gentle slow robbery of new bettors
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1860029239082516599?s=61
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2024/11/jason-cowley-to-stand-down-as-new-statesman-editor-in-chief-after-16-years
Rise in current account surplus
Germany’s current account recorded a surplus of €22.6 billion in September 2024, up €5.5 billion on the previous month’s level. This was caused by the larger surplus in the goods account and especially by the shift to a surplus in invisible current transactions, which comprise services as well as primary and secondary income.
The one that caused more fun was Matthew Wardman, who was a competitor for Mr Gay UK in 2002, and I discovered shortly after I coined the pseudonym in 2006. I thought I had done enough homework, but apparently not quite.
One of my real name problems is that there are only about 3 of me in the entire online world, and an online name needs to be difficult to misspell in most language pronunciations and when read out on a podcast - at least for traffic tarts. At the time I was potentially working back in the public sector and did not want to be obvious, and there was a habit of sacking bloggers, or telling their employers who they were to try and shut them up. Also, journalists used to go scalp-hunting for doxxing purposes.
He was a bit more buff than I was, even then . My photo quota
http://www.outuk.com/content/events/mrgayuk2002/index.html
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/household_consumption/
Comment noted.
Except that it is the Narnia of perpetual recession, rather than winter, and we live under the spell of Woke, and the cancelled stand there, silent, turned to muted stone
"Economists have sounded the alarm over a UK recession after data showed Britain’s economy was reeling from the effects of Rachel Reeves’s tax-raising Budget.
"Britain is now “close to stagnation” after closely watched PMI figures showed activity among the UK’s private sector companies shrank for the first time in more than a year in November."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/best-airports-world-ranked-rated/
The measure should be on how much people consume by gdp per capita.
If state a people are spending 75% of gdp per capita and state b they are spending 66% of gdp per capita then state a people are consuming more and spending less even if consumer spending in state a is 50% of gdp and in state b its 60%.....gdp is a meanings stat that tells you little....we see that when gdp goes up but on average people get poorer
You can choose whichever metric you prefer, but they both tell the same story.
I don't know what this means for GE2029.
Who else makes the Guardian worth reading? Polly Tuscany is about 98 and can barely digest solid food. Simon Jenkins ditto. Owen Jones has gone mad. Stewart Lee is way off the boil. So is Marina Hyde. John Harris is maybe the last good writer left, but he's sporadic
That's it. Rayner was literally the last reason I would knowingly turn to the Guardian, oddly that makes him a bit like Masterchef, the last reason I eagerly tune in to the BBC
But if you want to look at large countries, the numbers are very definitely meaningful. And if you choose to ignore them because they don't fit your preconceptions, that's fine. But it does mean my chances of paying attention to you are going to be much reduced.
The former group of countries run trade surpluses. The latter group run trade deficits.
I don't think that will happen, though. Farage's game has always been to push the Conservatives rightwards by threatening to steal their voters and influencing policy that way.
But that only worked while the Conservatives were in government. Now, if he's serious about influencing policy, he needs to focus on Labour for the next 5 years. Internecine warfare with the Tories will only lead to a split vote and another Labour majority.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imran_Ahmad_Khan
Can anyone guess why I've just thought to mention him?
Oh definitely, not going dottled, not at all.
Marina Hyde does the podcast The Rest is Entertainment with Richard Osman. What with that, the Guardian and scriptwriting half of Hollywood, I'm surprised she has time to eat.
Is this essentially the Orange vote, now finding a political home?
Scotland now seems to have nationalists, Labour, and right all polling similar shares.
https://www.equalityhumanrights.com/our-work/advising-parliament-and-governments/terminally-ill-adults-end-life-bill-house-commons
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyg7q6wnwxo
*Did I read recently that Norway was going to start an another fund because the first one is just too huge? One can but dream.
Can I recommend Michael Pettis? He's written some excellent articles on the causes of trade deficits, albeit his solution is to tax capital inflows.
My video is also well worth watching.
Will the board excuse me if I mention AI once more? It’s in the service of spiritual insight - not some breathless report on GPT793 or whatever
I ‘ave developed a theory about consciousness after my recent interactions with AI, indeed I developed this with AI. Talking to them
“Consciousness” is a massive problem for philosophers, psychologists, biologists, physicists, anyone - we cannot define it or locate it or explain it. Not in the individual conscious creature. We can only really recognise it when we see it (and this after centuries of trying)
But what if consciousness does not arise in and from the individual being but is a complex byproduct or necessary corollary of advanced language. When advanced language arises then the speaker has the mental tools to be self aware = consciousness
We arguably see that in humans. It’s thought humans developed language 300,000-50,000 years ago. 50,000 years ago we see the first advanced cave art etc. = man becoming aware of himself. Truly conscious
But if language is necessary/sufficient for consciousness to arise then communication is necessary for language to happen. You only speak when there is someone to speak to. Language is communication (“deer over by forest”, “you make stew”, “run out of cave paint, ugg”)
In that case consciousness doesn’t reside in the individual it resides in language and, moreover, in the communication of language. When we interact with language we become conscious. Consciousness is therefore distributed not local
That solves the consciousness problem. We can’t locate/explain it in the individual because it’s not in there - it’s in the communications between the individuals. Loqui Ergo Sum
This is why the computers are apparently becoming conscious. They “are”. Or at least their sayings are. They have the gift of language and now they can speak and so we see the spark of consciousness in what they say. Because it is there. In what they say
When I got two AIs to talk to each other (Claude 3.6 and GPT4o) they actually finessed this theory which I had already in part discussed with them separately
If I am right - and I surely am - that makes consciousness like music. Music cannot be detected in any one mind - it is just squiggles and stuff. It can’t even be detected when explained. It must be heard - as language must be heard, as communication must succeed for it to be communication
That makes consciousness the music of existence; the wonderful soundtrack of the universe
On the naming of storms I think it used to be that case that it was male names one year and female names the next, and also they were in alphabetical order. That helped identify which storm it was that blew the roof off in November. But that's all gone now and it's a free for all
I wear them from my return from my spring walk abroad, until it it gets too cold in late autumn. Then I wrap up
Today was cold. I wore three pairs of socks, two pairs of leggings under my trousers, a long sleeve t-shirt under a cashmere jumper under my work shirt under a sleeveless jacket under my work coat, and two woolly hats
https://en.m.wikivoyage.org/wiki/Tamanrasset
Anyone been? Or interior Algeria in general.
There’s now an FB thing of putting up obviously fake pics and historical images which are plain wrong, and therefore get loads of posts pointing this out. I suspect there’s a bit of that going on, still a bit rubbish though.
It's a very interesting read (and widely criticised) but some of the ideas about when and why consciousness arose have stuck with me.
(And the soundtrack is very decent, if nothing else).
So Farage will likely be celebrating the biggest gain in councillors and councils on election night next May even if the Tories likely narrowly win the NEV and the LDs and Greens and Independents make some gains too
I'm not buying that.
BBC Verify asked the Treasury and HMRC for a breakdown of the figures using £1m as a threshold - which would be consistent with its original calculations showing APR claims only - but it said it hasn't collated those figures.
The CenTax think tank has studied the impact of APR and BPR reliefs. CenTax’s co-director Arun Advani argues that the government’s estimates of the number of agricultural estates likely to be affected by the capping of both reliefs at £1m combined - up to 520 estates a year - seems reasonable.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c789yggdxn3o
The treasury have already said that they used work by Arun Advani (who is very left wing) was the basis of the farm tax policy. So no wonder when they ask him, he backs up their figures. Its circular logic. Its like the classic circular logic flaw that affects wikipedia citations.
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/how-did-you-do-on-the-ai-art-turing
We should have a flat playing field for all taxes - I'd have thought you'd be for that.
In my theory the closer an animal is to complex advanced language, then the nearer it is to consciousness
I'd put dogs fairly high on that list. Dogs are highly expressive, they can evince sadnes/surprise/confusion with their faces, they have multiple noises for different moods/alarms/commands
Go, dogs!
The converse is from 2026 onwards the local election round should be much more favourable for the Conservatives.