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Why do I keep doing this? – politicalbetting.com
Why do I keep doing this? – politicalbetting.com
We were out before 7am on polling day, putting one final leaflet out in my village. I’ve been at it for an hour, the fine drizzle is starting to get annoying, and then I cut a finger on someone’s gate.
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"Doctor, it hurts when I do this."
"Don't do it then...."
It's probably the same answer: you keep doing something if you like doing it.
Just try not to cut your finger again.
Yes, I take my hat off to anyone who does it too. And plenty (most) are genuinely public spirited.
I admire @RochdalePioneers dedication to public service and stoicism
I wish him all the very best
Because on most of the conventional metrics, Kamala should have won. She had more money than Trump's campaign; a stronger ground game with more activists; more adverts.
And here in July, Reform picked up more votes than the LibDems despite a shambolic campaign.
So maybe you are wasting time as well as blood delivering leaflets.
“Oh, what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive”
What is troubling about the forces working against that. Social media, natch, but also the atomisation of mass media and the changing geography of where we live. It's comforting (and profitable) to sort ourselves into clusters of people like us, but it's almost certainly not good for us.
Probably…
I saw your brief post yesterday - can you give us more detail about he Paul v Tyson fight please?
Thank you, @RochdalePioneers for the article and for flying the flag at an election. I've stood three times but as a paper candidate each time so the "shock" would have been victory.
There is and has been a constant anti-politician undercurrent (even an anti-politics one on occasion). Politicians are held to standards most wouldn't hold themselves to - the slightest foible (lovely word) is exaggerated into a national scandal. Everything someone said 10 or 20 years is regurgitated and weaponised - yes, they thought that then but do they think it now?
In other countries, a politician having an affair is barely worth a mention - here it's a "scandal". Political opportunism dressed up as neo-puritanism. As Mr Goddard once offered "don't drink, don't smoke, what do you do?".
Whether MPs or Councillors, elected representatives are in a strange existence - are they "public servants"? To a point but they aren't Council officers or civil servants though they work with them a lot. They have to do a lot themselves and I suspect the individual parties don't help as much as is neededso it becomes a calling for those with money and time which automatically excludes a large amount of potential from public office of any kind.
Councils are businesses, often very complex ones, but it's also about dealing with constituents on an individual level and I dread to think how much casework Stephen Timms for example has but all MPs will be the same. It's a constant treadmill of casework, visits, attending Parliament (which can be a significant logistical undertaking for those like Andrew George who aren;t exactly near London).
It's a system which you wouldn't start from if you are developing a democratic/parliamentary culture from scratch but we are where we are - with a Parliament building that will fall down in time (and, architectural marvel and tourist attraction notwithstanding), we need a legislative chamber for the 21st century not the 19th.
Hopefully the old man smacks the sh!t out of the young tw@. Even 58-year-old Mike Tyson, is still Mike Tyson.
They played at the Royal Albert Hall a few months ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRp2oiDQtOM
My parents, in their mid-70s, were perhaps the oldest people there but also had a great night!
Guilty as charged. As a Labour Party member / activist / organiser / candidate I was advocating that people vote for my party.
Said cybernat threatened to “go to STV” with said screenshots. Someone pointed out that (a) it was a decade go and (b) he himself is demanding that people change their political minds vs a decade ago to now support yes having voted no and for some reason it all got a little fraught.
Same here. Lewisham is a Labour one party state, and if any party is likely to threaten that hegemony it’s the Greens. Lib Dems might conceivably have a chance in the far Southern edges around Sydenham, I suppose.
I did however have to reach into the depths of my wallet just now to pay for a coffee at a…*cash only* cafe!
Whereas that would not be one of our finest moments for the life of me I can't see how that shows we are Labour's Santa's little helpers. What the heck has tuition fees during the coalition got to do with supporting Labour?
FPT: which leads me on to ask about the
potential legal implications to PB of a US law
effectively crippling moderation.
Does this have the potential to end PB as a discussion forum? It has a US based moderator, but more than that it has Vanilla as a forum provider, a .com address and so forth. Any US exposure potentially runs counter to it being able to comply with the moderation required to meet UK libel law, doesn't it? Any PB lawyers care to comment on the extent of the headache here?
I genuinely hope he batters Paul.
Furthermore, while the Democrat campaign seems to have generated as vast army of helpers, these arrived far too late to be put to best use. It reminds me of the SDP in the days of the Alliance. Most of these were "political virgins" and thought that a bit of hard work in the last fortnight was enough to win the seat. Where SDP candidates did well, it was where the Liberals had put in the hard slog over the years, in all weathers.
So keep going, Rochdale Pioneer You may be a bit damp, bloodied and tired, but the final victory will be worth it!
On local government, here's an anecdote of mine if anybody's interested:
A close relative once stood for a nearly hopeless council seat at the time his party was heavily unpopular nationally. He did it basically to do a favour to a local party bigwig who was a friend, but only on the strict understanding that there was no way he could win.
Of course, he won, in a massive surprise, and spent a miserable year trying his best for his constituents despite crushing professional and family commitments before he resigned.
I learned two lessons from that: life often doesn't turn out the way you think, and even an unpaid local government role can be extremely demanding.
Even now, in a different area and in old age, I feel the odd stirring when an election draws near.
I did win a couple of elections to professional organisations, and am gratified that one of my grandchildren is now climbing the greasy pole in hers.
If Trump wants to pick a fight with the EU then doing so on consumer regulation and data privacy is just about the stupidest possible decision. He’d basically be launching a frontal attack on the bloc’s most powerful forces.
There's a balance between consistency and flexibility and adapting your view to a changing world yet, as you say, when a politician changes their view, we get all the nonsense about "U-turns" and "flip flopping".
A manifesto is a different thing - if you say you are going to do something in Government and don't do it, you need to explain why (the world changes and commitments in opposition don't always stand in Government etc). As for a defeated party, the manifesto is gone with the defeat - start again, blank sheet of paper. You can put the previous policies in the next manifesto but develop new ones, new ideas, new thinking, that's what Opposition is there for, to give you time to re-think.
Is the contempt for politicians worse than in the past? It's always been present, but it does feel worse now. Starmer's dismal honeymoon is noteworthy, but it's been a while since a new PM has floated in on a tide of national goodwill.
If it is different, why? One thing I'd want to probe is the Paxman doctrine- "why is this lying (bad word) lying to me?" Often deserved, but a bad default setting. The other is that we've had fifteen or so years where our assumption that things would get noticeably better most years have been tested and failed that test. And the people in charge have got the blame. In which case, where's the problem- their failure or our flawed assumptions?
1. What are you hoping to achieve by being elected to office?
2. Can you achieve those things if you are elected to the post you are standing for
3. Can you achieve those things anyway without being elected, in which case is the election process rather wasting some of your precious time (everyone's time is precious as we only have a very limitd amount of it)
Having chatted with you for many years I am pretty sure you know this and know the answers, hence the reason you still stand. But I do get the impression that many politicians - especially those in the higher tiers of administration, actually don't know the answers and are seeking position and some limited power for its own sake rather than because they have a clear idea of what they want to achieve.
A former mayor and local minor politician in Newark has been in and out of politics for decades. He is nominally 'Labour' but is actually 'Newark' to his core. The amount he has achieved for the town and for its people - at least ona local scale - has been immense and most of it was doen whilst he was out of office. Being elected mayor was simply a route to publicise, promote and further the many causes he was pursuing and he used it to great effect. Even his political opponents recognise that he has done all he has done for the very best of reasons and as a result he has become a real Newark treasure.
There is another councillor on the Tory side of the divide who, whilst more successful politically and being more of a recognisable politician at District and County level is doing similar things for the causes he believes are important. Little of what he does within elected positions relates to those causes and he could probably still achieve as much without being elected but it does give him a position from which to make his voice heard.
Both men deserve great praise for what they do but very little of it needed public office.
So yes, the EU is almost certain to do it.
Second, to an extent, if everything is going well and people feel things are getting better each year and they are getting richer, they'll be more tolerant of Government failure or incompetence (as they were in the Thatcher and Balir administrations, both of which had their share of scandal and disaster but presided over periods of growth and prosperity). When th,ings aren't going well, people look to Government for solutions (even if in a global economy there's probably little individual Governments can do) and when they don't see them, they look elsewhere.
I'm actually fairly gloomy - on immigration, for example, let's say you bring in a quota or points-based system to reduce the numbers, tighten up the legal routes and close down the illegal routes (assuming you could), the anti-immigration position would shift to deportations of those already here. That's the problem - if you run to the extremes, the extremes will run quicker and further away from you. That's the price of populism.
My own experience indicated a degree of this as a problem [though I am half English-half Welsh] when I first travelled from Edinburgh to Lossiemouth to meet my expansive future family with one Aunt recounting that it was said 'he is English, but very nice'
I must say once married and became very much part of the family this issue disappeared
I've always been interested, and debate and participate here and in other places. That is one form of involvement.
I will not be standing for a seat in Ashfield, however. There are limits to the shark-infested custards I will go for a swim within. My call is that doing that I would be tipping my life away running up an avalanche; there are better ways to add value to my community.
1) To cut the bullshit. Local politics bores me. Tit for tat political point scoring whilst very little gets done. Aberdeenshire council is broke (and I openly said so in my campaign) so money needs to be spent smartly on actually doing stuff. I also love the blank sheet of paper approach - don’t worry bout where we re now, why does good look like? And once you draw that on the blank sheet of paper, adjust course in the lived reality to stop compromising for the sake of it and start building the good.
One example - most villages in the ward have crap bus services. No point throwing money at it as the few that run are mostly empty, running odd routes at odd times. The solution is already enacted for my kids - a network of services running spokes to a central hub: the school. My son on a Friday takes the bus to school then another bus to college. Hub and spoke. A complete reimagining of bus service provision so that you can get anywhere to anywhere with one change.
2) Partially. LibDems are Tories are in coalition, albeit with the Tories heavily in charge especially after picking up 3 seats. The successful Tory is a nice guy - genuinely. But despite giving lip service in the campaign seems uninterested in stuff for the little people. Being on the council gives me a platform to build alliances cross party and start finding areas of common ground. Sadly so much of what is reported back to me is political first and delivery focused second. I would have pissed my LD colleagues off.
3) Doubtful. The council is so big and its budget cuts so large that the only guarantee is cuts followed by cuts. Having someone fight both for best value for the cash and it spent in the right place is critical. Can’t happen on the outside.
I’m sure it’s the same south of the wall, but the malign reach of the Scottish government is absurd, dictating that x has to be bundled with y but not actually funding y this ensuring that x doesn’t happen either. Not spending money costs even more money in crisis management of z. The conclusion? Nothing happens other than cash being burnt whilst local political popinjays denounce the failure of others to deliver the impossible situation they created specifically to ensure failure and blame.
Kinnock once denounced the Labour Party conference that a Labour council (a LABOUR council) shouldn’t play politics with people’s jobs and services. The SNP haven’t learned that lesson. And are getting smashed for it. And yet they lay the blame at the voters for not being patriotic.
There are parts of Wales, including Gwynedd , where you would experience similar road conditions but travel through Conwy, Denbighshire, and Flintshire together with Wrexham where you would see why it has been recognised by the people actually living here, and the Welsh government, that it needed change and that is what has happened
As planned, I lost comfortably. However, standing on the stage for our declaration gave me a sense of being part of something that matters - without me standing, the ward would have been uncontested, and I don't think that is good for democracy.
I didn’t lose because I am English. I lost because my party doesn’t have enough local support. I could have won as an “English man” had I been Tory. And the more the cybernats abuse me for being English, the more they upset the locals. Genuinely. They’re horrified and appalled. They tell me so.
According to my American relatives - NY Democrats since the year dot - the campaign and turnout machine were going great.
But of course they did not have social media in those days
Cybernats on social media like X are known to be rather enthusiastic in their support for their cause after a all.
For anyone working full time, it is a huge undertaking.
Looking back at Brexit, Obama made the same mistake when he said the UK would go to the back of the queue in any trade deal
The one I saw at Gibside a few months ago was sitting on a lawn mower all day. That sounded quite fun to be honest.
Why is that?
We have a simple issue in the U.K. either we are a growing population. Or not. If we are a growing population, we require growth in accommodation and services. Or we have a non growing population and do not.
Trying to have the cake and eat it - arguing that there is actually enough accommodation and services etc - is just as populist.
In fact, I would say that the definition of a “populist policy” might run like this -
- it claims to have no bad effects for “decent people”
- “Elites don’t want you to know this one trick…” the policy is claimed to be simple and obvious.
- It is claimed to solve the problem 100%
FPT: which leads me on to ask about the
potential legal implications to PB of a US law
effectively crippling moderation.
Does this have the potential to end PB as a discussion forum? It has a US based moderator, but more than that it has Vanilla as a forum provider, a .com address and so forth. Any US exposure potentially runs counter to it being able to comply with the moderation required to meet UK libel law, doesn't it? Any PB lawyers care to comment on the extent of the headache here?
It's a collation of self-serving, meaningless bullshit, as is normal for Trump. It's also 2 years old, so the Twitter poster's claim that it is an "announcement" is a lie. It doesn't actually define anything he doesn't like; it's a word salad to let him go for whoever is today's opponent.
Here's the original announcement from December 2022, with transcript. It's Trump reading out a bit of his platform:
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/president-donald-j-trump-free-speech-policy-initiative
Musk's orgasmic "YES!" is interesting, because if it does what Trump says Musk's everyday practices are in the crosshairs eg:
Reforming Section 230 protections to hold tech giants accountable for biased content moderation.
Depending on your area, one thing that can really be difficult is finding professional type people to be trustees and officers of organisations. So that is a good one for PB-type people. My area really struggles for that.
If you like, that's a battle and a war !
Here's the original announcement from December 2022, with transcript. It's Trump reading out a bit of his platform:
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/president-donald-j-trump-free-speech-policy-initiative
Musk's orgasmic "YES!" is interesting, because if it does what Trump says Musk's everyday practices are in the crosshairs eg:
Reforming Section 230 protections to hold tech giants accountable for biased content moderation.
As an engineer with a background in the motor industry I always make a beeline for the buses and also the garage in the 1910’s street.
But in everyday conversations "It's all the fault of the bloody English, oh, no offence, Alan"
hence my handle.
The rule is simple - immigration can never exceed the following:
New houses built (absolute)
Proportion of beds available in the NHS expressed as a percentage of the general population
% Increase in transport capacity
So if we build 300,000 new homes in 2025, the maximum amount of immigration in 2025 is 300,000.
But. If NHS capacity only rises by 0.1%, immigration would be capped at 0.1% of the current population, so 68,000.
Same for transport. Which I've picked as it takes time and planning and works as a proxy for 'general levels of infrastructure spending needed to support a growing population'.
Such a policy would please the likes of Reform voters, as they would imagine it would bring immigration down to, say, 68,000. I happen to believe the opposite is the case - we'd start building a f--kton more houses, hospitals, and roads.
And for anybody who thinks this idea is bonkers, I put the opposite to you:
What kind of madness leads a country to welcome hundreds of thousands of new immigrants each year while building a fraction of the number of houses, hospitals and roads needed to support them?
Putin seems to be escalating to the maximum now in preparation for Trump's arrival. Going slow on Ukraine support for the next two months would be unbelievably stupid and unforgivable.
An 80 minute queue for immigration then total anarchy getting a taxi. Like Bangkok 30 years ago but with more guns
On the other hand they might have bars where you can drink without needing to buy an entire fermented sting ray
While it was all amazing - the things that really stayed in my mind were the mine, the miner's cottage and the school in the mining village.
I could go to the boozer, the dentist, the high street shop, the mechanic, even the bank, and if I squinted hard enough, it was comparable to modern life, albeit ye-olde-world compared to the places we visit today.
But visiting the mining village made me realise just how different life was three or four generations ago. As I say, cracking place, and I will definitely be back at some point.
In the four years between March 2020 and March 2024, the employment rate in Pendle plunged from 74pc to 47.9pc – a fall of 26.1pc and the biggest drop recorded in any of the 329 local authorities across England and Wales, analysis shows.
The employment rate has recovered to 58.3pc since, but for a time less than half the local population was in work.
This is not because of a large rise in unemployment but rather because of a jump in the proportion of people who are economically inactive, meaning they are neither employed nor looking for a job."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/10/how-lockdown-left-britain-broke/
We also have large numbers of people unemployed (not seeking work) or semi unemployed (16 hours)
We could do something crazy, like rework the tax system and training to help them become productive.
You Super Simple idea might not be entirely practical but it is definitely along the lines of what we should be doing.
Edit: Does the Telegraph say which local authority had the lowest drop in economic activity?
Interesting that the Times shock ! horror ! £1bn Budget Bill for Tesco headline/subheadline had been through the standard UK media "turn everything to bullshit" filter, and does not mention that it is a cost over 5 years of the Parliament, not one year. Mentioned in the text and not put on social media, of course.
For those who follow, it sticks out because the Sainsbury Bill is £120-150m per annum, and Tesco is not 7-8 times bigger than Sainsbury.
(No comment on PB's answer to Lord Frith.)
"Ultra-wealthy Democrats race to buy London boltholes after Trump win
Enquiries from American buyers seeking ‘safety net’ second homes have doubled, says removals boss"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/10/rich-democrats-race-to-buy-london-boltholes-after-trump-win/
Aside from being bad for democracy it makes it impossible to total the party votes for a state.
There is a serious problem in the work force at large. People getting trapped in the 16 hours thing by insane marginal (effective) rates of tax.
So they are stuck in low quality, dead end jobs. No promotion because shift leaders and supervisors need to do more hours.