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Going for the pro Trump UK voters was courageous from Badenoch – politicalbetting.com

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    edited November 6
    HYUFD said:

    It is a risky strategy by Badenoch. She isn't going to win over Reform voters being too pro Trump who will stick with Farage and she might leak a few 2024 anti Trump Tories to the LDs given Davey's hard line against him

    It's her first PMQ's. I doubt there was much "strategy" involved beyond trying to embarrass SKS over Lammy's comments and being topical so she should get 10 seconds on the news tonight?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,180
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Does this mean that Ann Selzer woman can be ignored going forward?

    It was only one 18% outlier.
    I did like the way it went from

    - New Tablets of Stone. Only heard about it 10 minutes ago, but I completely believe in the Power and Knowledge behind this poll. As goes Iowa, so goes the Nation.

    to

    - It was only a one shitty little poll in Iowa. Who cares about Iowa?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    A lot depends on what policies the Trump administration actually adopts.

    All the "American carnage" stuff is entirely possible - but for now, we just don't know. The first clue will come with the appointments to his administration (as a "minor" example, will RFK Jnr really get to run health policy ?).
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    boulay said:

    TimT said:

    This analysis from an emigre living in the US I thinks explains why the 'hold my nose' Republicans voted for Trump. I don't think it really explains the MAGAmaniacs and Trump Cultists, though:

    "1. Americans love their country and want it to be the best in the world. America is a nation of people who conquered a continent. They love strength. They love winning. Any leader who appeals to that has an automatic advantage.

    "2. Unlike Europeans, Americans have not accepted managed decline. They don't have Net Zero here, they believe in producing their own energy and making it as cheap as possible because they know that their prosperity depends on it.

    "3. Prices for most basic goods in the US have increased rapidly and are sky high. What the official statistics say about inflation and the reality of people's lives are not the same.

    "4. Unlike you, Americans do not believe in socialism. They believe in meritocracy. They don't care about the super rich being super rich because they know that they live in a country where being super rich is available to anyone with the talent and drive to make it. They don't resent success, they celebrate it.

    "5. Americans are the most pro-immigration people in the world. Read that again. Seriously, read it again. Americans love an immigrant success story. They want more talented immigrants to come to America. But they refuse to accept people coming illegally. They believe in having a border.

    "6. Americans are sensitive about racial issues and their country's imperfect history. They believe that those who are disadvantaged by the circumstances of their birth should be given the opportunity to succeed. What they reject, however, is the idea that in order to address the errors of the past new errors must be made. DEI is racist. They know it and they reject it precisely because they are not racist.

    "7. Americans are the most philosemitic nation on earth. October 7 and the pro-Hamas left's reaction shocked them to their very core because, among other things, they remember what 9/11 was like and they know jihad when they see it.

    "8. Americans are extremely practical people. They care about what works, not what sounds good. In Europe, we produce great writers and intellectuals. In America they produce (and attract) great engineers, businessmen and investors. Because of this, they care less about Trump's rhetoric than you do and more about his policies than you do.

    "9. Americans are deeply optimistic people. They hate negativity. The woke view of American history as a series of evils for which they must eternally apologise is utterly abhorrent to them. They believe in moving forward together, not endlessly obsessing about the past.

    "10. America is a country whose founding story is one of resistance to government overreach. They loathe unnecessary restrictions, regulations and control. They understand that freedom comes with the price of self-reliance and they pay it gladly."

    Re 1 - Canada and Mexico might disagree about the US conquering a co times.

    Re 8 - it’s a real euro snobbish perspective, the US has produced great writers, artists, play writers and intellectuals.

    And Europe has produced great engineers, businessmen and investors.maybe not as many of the last two as they should but still many huge businesses.
    On the last point, you appear to be treating a relative as an absolute. I don't think the claim is that Europe has no engineers, businessmen or investors or that America has no great writers and intellectuals - though it's sloppily worded and open to misinterpretation.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,949
    Cookie said:

    p

    Cookie said:

    The main question arising from PMQs was what the Speaker was calling her. It started as Badenoch with a short a, and after a couple of questions and presumably a note from the Tory benches, switched to the correct long a. Except he then swallowed the 'enoch' bit and it sounded more like babel than bad'noch.

    By long a, do you mean 'bade'? or 'bard'? I hope the former.

    If she is inserting an 'r' which is not there into an 'a' sound then she can kiss the votes from the North goodbye. [Flippancy mode off].
    Oh, so it's Badenoch to sound the same as Baden-Powell? I've been saying it all wrong.

    I'm going to need to try to think of it as "Baden-och" rather than "Bad-Enoch".
    It is pronounced to rhyme with maiden.

    So it is 'Baiden-och.'
    But a hard c at the end of it, to rhyme with eg nock of a bow.
    How is Badenoch in Invernessshire* pronounced?

    *Yes, this post was written almost solely to be able to include a word with a triple letter. Yes, I know it is more commonly hyphentated. But that strikes me as inconsistent with how counties are normally spelled and solely down to a squeamish refusal to grasp the opportunity to use a triple letter. See also the slightly more archaic Rossshire and the German word Balletttanzer.
    Definitely Bad-in-och to rhyme with loch.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    Reminder that DJT’s actual vice president called him Hitler, so I’m not sure the whole Trump bears grudges thing goes beyond skin deep.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,707
    Never mind, the future's bright, the future's orange
    Think how dull it might have been
  • Nigelb said:

    ASML is half American.

    Haven't looked at their shareholder list recently but I wouldn't be surprised if it's more than that. But most of ASML's US shareholders are asset management companies who will absolutely support making a buck by selling to China if they can get away with it.

    More important then selling brand new hardware to China is probably supporting used machines that are a couple of generations old. China can get hold of those, they just can't make them work without ASML. A green flag from the EU would make that quite a bit easier.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    If not Vance for whatever reason I can see Tulsi being the first female president running under a very broad Republican umbrella depending on what Trump gives her to do in the next 4 years
    I imagine Vance winning will be another of @leon's predictions that he will conveniently forget, like all the others highlighted today that he forgot about. I'm surprised he can ever find his house keys.

    Just winding you up @leon.
    Please do not ever directly address me again, thank you
    Oh come on @leon we get on and banter with one another. Are you going soft or something or just winding me up.

    PS I hope you noticed I was one of the few who did not support your ban.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,714
    TOPPING said:

    Will people please bear with me as I formulate a response to @kinabalu and @Scott_P when they finally join today's discussion.

    Pedantically, Scott_P hasn't been seen since 2019, so I wouldn't hold your breath :tongue:

    I think Kinabalu made it clear he'd be drowning his sorrows and watching Bake Off on a loop if Kamala's base proved too soft when kneaded and failed to rise when proving was required.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited November 6
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    A lot depends on what policies the Trump administration actually adopts.

    All the "American carnage" stuff is entirely possible - but for now, we just don't know. The first clue will come with the appointments to his administration (as a "minor" example, will RFK Jnr really get to run health policy ?).
    Trump has won the EC, popular vote and his party has won Congress.

    He is going to do exactly what he said with no checks and put 'America First' with handpicked henchmen better prepared to help him this time unlike 2016 when he had some establishment Republicans he has now ignored
  • The Labour position on IHT on farming is so bizarre that they haven't thought through their own lack of logic.

    They posit there is a £22bn black hole NOW, so they will change the IHT rules in 2026. Now probate takes about a year so no estates will be finalised for IHT before April 2027. BUT "we will give them 10 years to pay", and "3/4 won't pay anything in any case". So by their own logic it will raise 1/4 of fuck all in 13 years time ??? Of course this is unlikely to be true.

    No one has spotted the excellent point by KB slipped in but enormously reassuring. In effect the tax which is outstanding at the change of government will be set aside. This has to be so because of end effects and she might not have meant to say it. But Reform Conservatives and Lib Dems will all be committed to that stance in May 2028.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    It is a risky strategy by Badenoch. She isn't going to win over Reform voters being too pro Trump who will stick with Farage and she might leak a few 2024 anti Trump Tories to the LDs given Davey's hard line against him

    Always feel a bit giddy when the stars align and I agree with you on something.
    You never know we might convert @hyufd to the LDs yet. Did I just hear hell freezing over?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261

    Sandpit said:

    Can we now all agree that Trump’s McDonalds stunt was possibly the most effective political campaign idea of the last twenty years?

    It is going to be really interesting to know how effective the podcast blitz was for Trump / Vance. Is this the replacement for flood facebook with ads.
    Yes, I know a few political strategists, the old strategies don't work, content has to be memetastic.

    Something that can be shared/forwarded on WhatsApp/TikTok has more potency.
    The thing about a lot of these podcast, particularly the younger focused ones i.e. not Rogan, they are experts at clipping stuff and getting it trending on TikTok / YouTube shorts.
    Interesting if they have finally found a way to turn it into actual votes.

    Labour had a load of success with viral videos during GE2017 and GE2019 and it didn't make much difference in the end. Obviously the US is different but I am always sceptical of saying engagement = votes
    I think one aspect is that the Democrats and CNN / MSNBC / etc keep saying he is literal Orange Hitler. But all these podcasts he doesn't come across like that, so I think that is probably the effective bit, that able to change perceptions. All that experience with the Apprentice, he knows how to play that game e.g. when he went on Rogan, he was engaging about MMA / UFC, well a big proportion of male 19-30s in the US love their MMA.

    And because its all clipped, any in depth chatter about tariff policy (and all the nonsense he was talking), nobody watches that bit.

    I don't think any of the Labour memes about Tories changed any perceptions. Rishi is extremely rich and so rather out of touch, I mean I don't think anybody is suddenly realising that might be the case.
    I should say, I still think first and overwhelmingly foremost, the economy was what did it for Harris. But the podcasts enabled Trump / Vance to sidestep the MSM and project an alternative version of themselves.
    One expects that the MSM CEOs are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect at four more years of Trump, but in reality last night was the day cable news died.

    Trump won on Twitter and podcasts.
    MSM utterly broken by last night and this campaign.
    However the biggest losers would seem to be Rory Stewart and Alistair Campbell who are now their own punchline
    At one time "Rory The Tory" had a big fan club on here...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,180

    The Labour position on IHT on farming is so bizarre that they haven't thought through their own lack of logic.

    They posit there is a £22bn black hole NOW, so they will change the IHT rules in 2026. Now probate takes about a year so no estates will be finalised for IHT before April 2027. BUT "we will give them 10 years to pay", and "3/4 won't pay anything in any case". So by their own logic it will raise 1/4 of fuck all in 13 years time ??? Of course this is unlikely to be true.

    No one has spotted the excellent point by KB slipped in but enormously reassuring. In effect the tax which is outstanding at the change of government will be set aside. This has to be so because of end effects and she might not have meant to say it. But Reform Conservatives and Lib Dems will all be committed to that stance in May 2028.

    Maybe the plan is to get the extra tax from the lawyers doing all the paperwork on setting up trusts etc?

    Which will start immediately.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569

    The Labour position on IHT on farming is so bizarre that they haven't thought through their own lack of logic.

    They posit there is a £22bn black hole NOW, so they will change the IHT rules in 2026. Now probate takes about a year so no estates will be finalised for IHT before April 2027. BUT "we will give them 10 years to pay", and "3/4 won't pay anything in any case". So by their own logic it will raise 1/4 of fuck all in 13 years time ??? Of course this is unlikely to be true.

    No one has spotted the excellent point by KB slipped in but enormously reassuring. In effect the tax which is outstanding at the change of government will be set aside. This has to be so because of end effects and she might not have meant to say it. But Reform Conservatives and Lib Dems will all be committed to that stance in May 2028.

    How many Labour ministers, MPs, activists, know anyone who knows anything about farming outside NFU representatives?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited November 6

    The Labour position on IHT on farming is so bizarre that they haven't thought through their own lack of logic.

    They posit there is a £22bn black hole NOW, so they will change the IHT rules in 2026. Now probate takes about a year so no estates will be finalised for IHT before April 2027. BUT "we will give them 10 years to pay", and "3/4 won't pay anything in any case". So by their own logic it will raise 1/4 of fuck all in 13 years time ??? Of course this is unlikely to be true.

    No one has spotted the excellent point by KB slipped in but enormously reassuring. In effect the tax which is outstanding at the change of government will be set aside. This has to be so because of end effects and she might not have meant to say it. But Reform Conservatives and Lib Dems will all be committed to that stance in May 2028.

    So many of the decisions have been poorly thought through. Increase employee NI, oh shit we forgot about GP, dentists, care homes....we are going to borrow a load of money for infrastructure, but we shit canned loads of roads, the supercomputer....
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    TimS said:

    Reminder that DJT’s actual vice president called him Hitler, so I’m not sure the whole Trump bears grudges thing goes beyond skin deep.

    Unless he sees that as a compliment.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    I actually know someone who served as an under-secretary of commerce in the last Trump administration (Director of the US Patent and Trademark Office). This will surprise no-one but he told me that Trump takes very little interest in day to day policy. Make America Great Again is what he wants and expects from his Administration but in many areas what that means is left to others. A key issue for the next four years is who gets to decide - is it the tech plutocrats like Musk or the populist nationalists like Vance? A lot will wrest on that. Musk will hate trade wars, for example, Vance may be far more relaxed. Likewise, Musk hates trade unions; Vance does not. And so on.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 6
    Houthis have given up the fight. Hezbollah down to their last bollock, Hamas destroyed.
    Iran must be absolutely crapping themselves
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    Bugger me! An HYUFD post I agree with!

    I also agree that Vance is confident, articulate, clever and plausible. He also has no moral compass and so is a shameless political chameleon. Were he to step up to the #1 spot, I am not at all sure what he would stand for or the policies he'd pursue. But economic suicide does not strike me as his taste.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Can we now all agree that Trump’s McDonalds stunt was possibly the most effective political campaign idea of the last twenty years?

    It is going to be really interesting to know how effective the podcast blitz was for Trump / Vance. Is this the replacement for flood facebook with ads.
    Yes, I know a few political strategists, the old strategies don't work, content has to be memetastic.

    Something that can be shared/forwarded on WhatsApp/TikTok has more potency.
    The thing about a lot of these podcast, particularly the younger focused ones i.e. not Rogan, they are experts at clipping stuff and getting it trending on TikTok / YouTube shorts.
    Interesting if they have finally found a way to turn it into actual votes.

    Labour had a load of success with viral videos during GE2017 and GE2019 and it didn't make much difference in the end. Obviously the US is different but I am always sceptical of saying engagement = votes
    I think one aspect is that the Democrats and CNN / MSNBC / etc keep saying he is literal Orange Hitler. But all these podcasts he doesn't come across like that, so I think that is probably the effective bit, that able to change perceptions. All that experience with the Apprentice, he knows how to play that game e.g. when he went on Rogan, he was engaging about MMA / UFC, well a big proportion of male 19-30s in the US love their MMA.

    And because its all clipped, any in depth chatter about tariff policy (and all the nonsense he was talking), nobody watches that bit.

    I don't think any of the Labour memes about Tories changed any perceptions. Rishi is extremely rich and so rather out of touch, I mean I don't think anybody is suddenly realising that might be the case.
    I should say, I still think first and overwhelmingly foremost, the economy was what did it for Harris. But the podcasts enabled Trump / Vance to sidestep the MSM and project an alternative version of themselves.
    One expects that the MSM CEOs are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect at four more years of Trump, but in reality last night was the day cable news died.

    Trump won on Twitter and podcasts.
    MSM utterly broken by last night and this campaign.
    However the biggest losers would seem to be Rory Stewart and Alistair Campbell who are now their own punchline
    At one time "Rory The Tory" had a big fan club on here...
    Then he became Rory the crashing Borey
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    A lot depends on what policies the Trump administration actually adopts.

    All the "American carnage" stuff is entirely possible - but for now, we just don't know. The first clue will come with the appointments to his administration (as a "minor" example, will RFK Jnr really get to run health policy ?).
    Trump has won the EC, popular vote and his party has won Congress.

    He is going to do exactly what he said with no checks and put 'America First' with handpicked henchmen better prepared to help him this time unlike 2016 when he had some establishment Republicans he has now ignored
    There's still the filibuster in the Senate, and he may not have the votes to scrap that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
    .

    Nigelb said:

    ASML is half American.

    Haven't looked at their shareholder list recently but I wouldn't be surprised if it's more than that. But most of ASML's US shareholders are asset management companies who will absolutely support making a buck by selling to China if they can get away with it.

    More important then selling brand new hardware to China is probably supporting used machines that are a couple of generations old. China can get hold of those, they just can't make them work without ASML. A green flag from the EU would make that quite a bit easier.
    Statement regarding US government's export control regulations announcement
    https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2023/statement-regarding-us-governments-export-control-regulations-announcement
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,630
    kjh said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    It is a risky strategy by Badenoch. She isn't going to win over Reform voters being too pro Trump who will stick with Farage and she might leak a few 2024 anti Trump Tories to the LDs given Davey's hard line against him

    Always feel a bit giddy when the stars align and I agree with you on something.
    You never know we might convert @hyufd to the LDs yet. Did I just hear hell freezing over?
    More likely Reform I'd guess.

    Davey has this huge freedom to make consequence-free statements about WFP, NIMBYism, Trump, water quality... As much as I think taking on Farage is foolish , I can see why taking on Davey doesn't look particularly attractive to Badenoch either.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569
    DecisionDesk still thinks it’s 218-217 to the Republicans in the House, despite that party being up two seats so far.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569

    The Labour position on IHT on farming is so bizarre that they haven't thought through their own lack of logic.

    They posit there is a £22bn black hole NOW, so they will change the IHT rules in 2026. Now probate takes about a year so no estates will be finalised for IHT before April 2027. BUT "we will give them 10 years to pay", and "3/4 won't pay anything in any case". So by their own logic it will raise 1/4 of fuck all in 13 years time ??? Of course this is unlikely to be true.

    No one has spotted the excellent point by KB slipped in but enormously reassuring. In effect the tax which is outstanding at the change of government will be set aside. This has to be so because of end effects and she might not have meant to say it. But Reform Conservatives and Lib Dems will all be committed to that stance in May 2028.

    So many of the decisions have been poorly thought through. Increase employee NI, oh shit we forgot about GP, dentists, care homes....we are going to borrow a load of money for infrastructure, but we shit canned loads of roads, the supercomputer....
    EmployER NI.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    Bugger me! An HYUFD post I agree with!

    I also agree that Vance is confident, articulate, clever and plausible. He also has no moral compass and so is a shameless political chameleon. Were he to step up to the #1 spot, I am not at all sure what he would stand for or the policies he'd pursue. But economic suicide does not strike me as his taste.
    PS There are some cynics who think Vance will pull Section 4 of the 25th Amendment on Trump
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983

    The Labour position on IHT on farming is so bizarre that they haven't thought through their own lack of logic.

    They posit there is a £22bn black hole NOW, so they will change the IHT rules in 2026. Now probate takes about a year so no estates will be finalised for IHT before April 2027. BUT "we will give them 10 years to pay", and "3/4 won't pay anything in any case". So by their own logic it will raise 1/4 of fuck all in 13 years time ??? Of course this is unlikely to be true.

    No one has spotted the excellent point by KB slipped in but enormously reassuring. In effect the tax which is outstanding at the change of government will be set aside. This has to be so because of end effects and she might not have meant to say it. But Reform Conservatives and Lib Dems will all be committed to that stance in May 2028.

    The IHT is not a huge income earner anyway. The NI changes are the big ones. APR and BPR (particularly APR) are fairness measures - about everyone even Clarkson and Dyson doing their bit.

    More to the point there is plenty of planning available if you’re a business owner or farmer looking to avoid IHT. The most obvious one being give the bloody thing to your children rather than clinging on to it.

    I mean, if you are really interested in a successful succession for your landholdings or your painstakingly built business empire, then do some succession planning. That includes letting your offspring actually take some responsibility and ownership of the family business before they themselves are beyond retirement age.

    Give assets more than 7 years before you die and it’s completely tax free. No matter what it is worth. Life expectancy being around 80 years that means on average giving it to your young whippersnappers when they are in their 50s.
  • Of course the previous batch of right on proto-socialists tried to introduce "Income Tax on Land" in the 1910 Finance Act. They had maps of every farm drawn up and forms to fill out. On these forms you could claim a reduction if there was a PROW through your farm so these maps are still used to check for this. However, the ploy did not work and it was 1925 before the money raised paid for drawing the maps.

    When the stupidity of this was remarked on in O Level History our teacher commented that he had never voted for the government or party in question.
  • For some light, or serious, relief, depending on how one views such things, the blind "Balkan Nostradamus", Baba Vanga, also had some interesting thoughts on next year.

    Her record was as bizarrely patchy the original Nostradamus, accurately predicting that the 44fh American President would be an African American, for instance, but she also thought he would be last one.

    Her thoughts for next year do catch the eye, though. "There will be contact with extraterrestrials and telepathy will become a reality."

    Either bizarrely or amusingly, this would happen at "a major sporting event."
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    Bugger me! An HYUFD post I agree with!

    I also agree that Vance is confident, articulate, clever and plausible. He also has no moral compass and so is a shameless political chameleon. Were he to step up to the #1 spot, I am not at all sure what he would stand for or the policies he'd pursue. But economic suicide does not strike me as his taste.
    PS There are some cynics who think Vance will pull Section 4 of the 25th Amendment on Trump

    Given his clear mental decline, Trump not being President through to January 2029 seems a fairly reasonable scenario.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Eabhal said:

    kjh said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    It is a risky strategy by Badenoch. She isn't going to win over Reform voters being too pro Trump who will stick with Farage and she might leak a few 2024 anti Trump Tories to the LDs given Davey's hard line against him

    Always feel a bit giddy when the stars align and I agree with you on something.
    You never know we might convert @hyufd to the LDs yet. Did I just hear hell freezing over?
    More likely Reform I'd guess.

    Davey has this huge freedom to make consequence-free statements about WFP, NIMBYism, Trump, water quality... As much as I think taking on Farage is foolish , I can see why taking on Davey doesn't look particularly attractive to Badenoch either.
    No, I would vote for Davey over Farage on some matters but I remain a Tory as long as the party exists
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,180

    I am going to post something controversial.

    Had a nice chat with a couple of people from the Royal British Legion stall inside my local Sainsbury’s.

    When I was about to pay I asked them would they prefer cash or card (as they had a card reader) and they said card please because

    1) Handling cash is a PITA and not safe

    2) Donations are definitely up since they’ve had the card reader as hardly anybody carries cash these days.

    Though I bought the poppy badges* for the family with cash - at a Rymans of all places

    *My wife and daughters prefer the little metal badges to the plastic poppies. They keep them - I made couple of acrylic blocks with the 2014-2018 badges...
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Sandpit said:

    Can we now all agree that Trump’s McDonalds stunt was possibly the most effective political campaign idea of the last twenty years?

    It is going to be really interesting to know how effective the podcast blitz was for Trump / Vance. Is this the replacement for flood facebook with ads.
    Yes, I know a few political strategists, the old strategies don't work, content has to be memetastic.

    Something that can be shared/forwarded on WhatsApp/TikTok has more potency.
    The thing about a lot of these podcast, particularly the younger focused ones i.e. not Rogan, they are experts at clipping stuff and getting it trending on TikTok / YouTube shorts.
    Interesting if they have finally found a way to turn it into actual votes.

    Labour had a load of success with viral videos during GE2017 and GE2019 and it didn't make much difference in the end. Obviously the US is different but I am always sceptical of saying engagement = votes
    I think one aspect is that the Democrats and CNN / MSNBC / etc keep saying he is literal Orange Hitler. But all these podcasts he doesn't come across like that, so I think that is probably the effective bit, that able to change perceptions. All that experience with the Apprentice, he knows how to play that game e.g. when he went on Rogan, he was engaging about MMA / UFC, well a big proportion of male 19-30s in the US love their MMA.

    And because its all clipped, any in depth chatter about tariff policy (and all the nonsense he was talking), nobody watches that bit.

    I don't think any of the Labour memes about Tories changed any perceptions. Rishi is extremely rich and so rather out of touch, I mean I don't think anybody is suddenly realising that might be the case.
    I should say, I still think first and overwhelmingly foremost, the economy was what did it for Harris. But the podcasts enabled Trump / Vance to sidestep the MSM and project an alternative version of themselves.
    One expects that the MSM CEOs are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect at four more years of Trump, but in reality last night was the day cable news died.

    Trump won on Twitter and podcasts.
    MSM utterly broken by last night and this campaign.
    The networks' reluctance to call certain states - especially Georgia - was hilarious.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    Sandpit said:

    DecisionDesk still thinks it’s 218-217 to the Republicans in the House, despite that party being up two seats so far.

    uncheched Trump......they will have to own the next two years atleast.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    I actually know someone who served as an under-secretary of commerce in the last Trump administration (Director of the US Patent and Trademark Office). This will surprise no-one but he told me that Trump takes very little interest in day to day policy. Make America Great Again is what he wants and expects from his Administration but in many areas what that means is left to others. A key issue for the next four years is who gets to decide - is it the tech plutocrats like Musk or the populist nationalists like Vance? A lot will wrest on that. Musk will hate trade wars, for example, Vance may be far more relaxed. Likewise, Musk hates trade unions; Vance does not. And so on.

    Hmm, that sounds familiar.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,714

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    Bugger me! An HYUFD post I agree with!

    I also agree that Vance is confident, articulate, clever and plausible. He also has no moral compass and so is a shameless political chameleon. Were he to step up to the #1 spot, I am not at all sure what he would stand for or the policies he'd pursue. But economic suicide does not strike me as his taste.
    PS There are some cynics who think Vance will pull Section 4 of the 25th Amendment on Trump

    Given his clear mental decline, Trump not being President through to January 2029 seems a fairly reasonable scenario.

    If Trump is unavailable to be president after inauguration then it's VP Vance automatically, right? What about before inauguration? Vance or totally at the whim of the EC voters/congress? Politically, one would assume they'd choose Vance, whatever the legal position.

    (To be clear, much as I don't like Trump, I'm not wishing for this - I'm just intrigued by the niceties of procedure on things like this and on the gap between the election and the actual taking of office which is - generally - very different to here)
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,566

    I am going to post something controversial.

    Had a nice chat with a couple of people from the Royal British Legion stall inside my local Sainsbury’s.

    When I was about to pay I asked them would they prefer cash or card (as they had a card reader) and they said card please because

    1) Handling cash is a PITA and not safe

    2) Donations are definitely up since they’ve had the card reader as hardly anybody carries cash these days.

    My donations to churches I come across whilst walking in the countryside have bifurcated since I stopped carrying cash. The first church with a card machine gets whatever the minimum donation allowed on the machine is (Often £3). But then the next two get nothing, even if they have a machine. Previously I would have stuck £1 cash in the box at each.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Driver said:

    Sandpit said:

    Can we now all agree that Trump’s McDonalds stunt was possibly the most effective political campaign idea of the last twenty years?

    It is going to be really interesting to know how effective the podcast blitz was for Trump / Vance. Is this the replacement for flood facebook with ads.
    Yes, I know a few political strategists, the old strategies don't work, content has to be memetastic.

    Something that can be shared/forwarded on WhatsApp/TikTok has more potency.
    The thing about a lot of these podcast, particularly the younger focused ones i.e. not Rogan, they are experts at clipping stuff and getting it trending on TikTok / YouTube shorts.
    Interesting if they have finally found a way to turn it into actual votes.

    Labour had a load of success with viral videos during GE2017 and GE2019 and it didn't make much difference in the end. Obviously the US is different but I am always sceptical of saying engagement = votes
    I think one aspect is that the Democrats and CNN / MSNBC / etc keep saying he is literal Orange Hitler. But all these podcasts he doesn't come across like that, so I think that is probably the effective bit, that able to change perceptions. All that experience with the Apprentice, he knows how to play that game e.g. when he went on Rogan, he was engaging about MMA / UFC, well a big proportion of male 19-30s in the US love their MMA.

    And because its all clipped, any in depth chatter about tariff policy (and all the nonsense he was talking), nobody watches that bit.

    I don't think any of the Labour memes about Tories changed any perceptions. Rishi is extremely rich and so rather out of touch, I mean I don't think anybody is suddenly realising that might be the case.
    I should say, I still think first and overwhelmingly foremost, the economy was what did it for Harris. But the podcasts enabled Trump / Vance to sidestep the MSM and project an alternative version of themselves.
    One expects that the MSM CEOs are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect at four more years of Trump, but in reality last night was the day cable news died.

    Trump won on Twitter and podcasts.
    MSM utterly broken by last night and this campaign.
    The networks' reluctance to call certain states - especially Georgia - was hilarious.
    CNN not calling Georgia having been told there were ca 100,000 votes to count with Trump up 180,000 and just saying 'OK, let's move on to Pennsylvania' was a highlight
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    Bugger me! An HYUFD post I agree with!

    I also agree that Vance is confident, articulate, clever and plausible. He also has no moral compass and so is a shameless political chameleon. Were he to step up to the #1 spot, I am not at all sure what he would stand for or the policies he'd pursue. But economic suicide does not strike me as his taste.
    PS There are some cynics who think Vance will pull Section 4 of the 25th Amendment on Trump
    Would he have a majority of the Cabinet with him?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    It is a risky strategy by Badenoch. She isn't going to win over Reform voters being too pro Trump who will stick with Farage and she might leak a few 2024 anti Trump Tories to the LDs given Davey's hard line against him

    It's her first PMQ's. I doubt there was much "strategy" involved beyond trying to embarrass SKS over Lammy's comments and being topical so she should get 10 seconds on the news tonight?
    There is a deeper problem and why it's probably best to leave Trump alone as a topic and let Labour squirm themselves.

    In that for reasons of diplomacy Starmer is going to be far more polite about Trump than the public would ideally want him to be. Trump is loathed as everything we dislike. And not just on the left with a fairly even divide but on large parts of the right who are horrified at Trump the man - even if sympathetic to some rhetoric.

    Therefore the space to attack Starmer over Trump is very much not going to be in being too mean to him, but too soft in standing up to him when acts against UK interests.

    She'd be best off leaving mostly alone and letting the Lib Dems move into the space they occupied post Iraq by drawing their louder objections to Trump in contrast with Starmer having to break bread with him.
  • TimS said:

    The Labour position on IHT on farming is so bizarre that they haven't thought through their own lack of logic.

    They posit there is a £22bn black hole NOW, so they will change the IHT rules in 2026. Now probate takes about a year so no estates will be finalised for IHT before April 2027. BUT "we will give them 10 years to pay", and "3/4 won't pay anything in any case". So by their own logic it will raise 1/4 of fuck all in 13 years time ??? Of course this is unlikely to be true.

    No one has spotted the excellent point by KB slipped in but enormously reassuring. In effect the tax which is outstanding at the change of government will be set aside. This has to be so because of end effects and she might not have meant to say it. But Reform Conservatives and Lib Dems will all be committed to that stance in May 2028.

    The IHT is not a huge income earner anyway. The NI changes are the big ones. APR and BPR (particularly APR) are fairness measures - about everyone even Clarkson and Dyson doing their bit.

    More to the point there is plenty of planning available if you’re a business owner or farmer looking to avoid IHT. The most obvious one being give the bloody thing to your children rather than clinging on to it.

    I mean, if you are really interested in a successful succession for your landholdings or your painstakingly built business empire, then do some succession planning. That includes letting your offspring actually take some responsibility and ownership of the family business before they themselves are beyond retirement age.

    Give assets more than 7 years before you die and it’s completely tax free. No matter what it is worth. Life expectancy being around 80 years that means on average giving it to your young whippersnappers when they are in their 50s.
    No, in reality you can't just give it over. I need the income of a rent from my farm to live on. I need to live in the farm house. Thus a gift would be a nullity. You can give your successor a very olong lease and on the face of that that reduces the value by 45% but I guess HMRC will test that in the courts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    A lot depends on what policies the Trump administration actually adopts.

    All the "American carnage" stuff is entirely possible - but for now, we just don't know. The first clue will come with the appointments to his administration (as a "minor" example, will RFK Jnr really get to run health policy ?).
    Trump has won the EC, popular vote and his party has won Congress.

    He is going to do exactly what he said with no checks and put 'America First' with handpicked henchmen better prepared to help him this time unlike 2016 when he had some establishment Republicans he has now ignored
    Entirely possible.

    But it's a matter of whim, so it's inherently unpredictable.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    For some light, or serious, relief, depending on how one views such things, the blind "Balkan Nostradamus", Baba Vanga, also had some interesting thoughts on next year.

    Her record was as bizarrely patchy the original Nostradamus, accurately predicting that the 44fh American President would be an African American, for instance, but she also thought he would be last one.

    Her thoughts for next year do catch the eye, though. "There will be contact with extraterrestrials and telepathy will become a reality."

    Either bizarrely or amusingly, this would happen at "a major sporting event."

    Presumably they'll pull off the mask to reveal themselves during the Super Bowl halftime show.

    So your hidden alien is *checks Google* ... Kendrick Lamar!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    For some light, or serious, relief, depending on how one views such things, the blind "Balkan Nostradamus", Baba Vanga, also had some interesting thoughts on next year.

    Her record was as bizarrely patchy the original Nostradamus, accurately predicting that the 44fh American President would be an African American, for instance, but she also thought he would be last one.

    Her thoughts for next year do catch the eye, though. "There will be contact with extraterrestrials and telepathy will become a reality."

    Either bizarrely or amusingly, this would happen at "a major sporting event."

    Superbowl is 20 days after 47's inauguration.
    There you go.
  • I am going to post something controversial.

    Had a nice chat with a couple of people from the Royal British Legion stall inside my local Sainsbury’s.

    When I was about to pay I asked them would they prefer cash or card (as they had a card reader) and they said card please because

    1) Handling cash is a PITA and not safe

    2) Donations are definitely up since they’ve had the card reader as hardly anybody carries cash these days.

    Though I bought the poppy badges* for the family with cash - at a Rymans of all places

    *My wife and daughters prefer the little metal badges to the plastic poppies. They keep them - I made couple of acrylic blocks with the 2014-2018 badges...
    I prefer the metal ones.

    It always feels disrespectful when I threw away the old plastic poppy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,936
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    kjh said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    It is a risky strategy by Badenoch. She isn't going to win over Reform voters being too pro Trump who will stick with Farage and she might leak a few 2024 anti Trump Tories to the LDs given Davey's hard line against him

    Always feel a bit giddy when the stars align and I agree with you on something.
    You never know we might convert @hyufd to the LDs yet. Did I just hear hell freezing over?
    More likely Reform I'd guess.

    Davey has this huge freedom to make consequence-free statements about WFP, NIMBYism, Trump, water quality... As much as I think taking on Farage is foolish , I can see why taking on Davey doesn't look particularly attractive to Badenoch either.
    No, I would vote for Davey over Farage on some matters but I remain a Tory as long as the party exists
    You have illustrated that by remaining a Tory when you have disagreed with the Tory party's most important policy.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,765
    Question: do we call the current Trump the 45th President? Or the 47th? Is this the first time a president has been reeelected after a spell out of office?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    A lot depends on what policies the Trump administration actually adopts.

    All the "American carnage" stuff is entirely possible - but for now, we just don't know. The first clue will come with the appointments to his administration (as a "minor" example, will RFK Jnr really get to run health policy ?).
    Trump has won the EC, popular vote and his party has won Congress.

    He is going to do exactly what he said with no checks and put 'America First' with handpicked henchmen better prepared to help him this time unlike 2016 when he had some establishment Republicans he has now ignored
    Entirely possible.

    But it's a matter of whim, so it's inherently unpredictable.
    We will see but at least we are now going to almost certainly see MAGA unleashed in tooth and claw, it has a full mandate and all levers of the Federal government in its hands so if it fails and fails badly Trumpism will have nobody to blame but itself
  • Cookie said:

    Question: do we call the current Trump the 45th President? Or the 47th? Is this the first time a president has been reeelected after a spell out of office?

    He’s both.

    Grover Cleveland was the 22nd and 24th President.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,340
    Cookie said:

    Question: do we call the current Trump the 45th President? Or the 47th? Is this the first time a president has been reeelected after a spell out of office?

    He is 45th and 47th, I suppose a bit like James I & VI.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,157
    Is it President Elect President Trump or Elect President President Trump ?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    kjh said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    It is a risky strategy by Badenoch. She isn't going to win over Reform voters being too pro Trump who will stick with Farage and she might leak a few 2024 anti Trump Tories to the LDs given Davey's hard line against him

    Always feel a bit giddy when the stars align and I agree with you on something.
    You never know we might convert @hyufd to the LDs yet. Did I just hear hell freezing over?
    More likely Reform I'd guess.

    Davey has this huge freedom to make consequence-free statements about WFP, NIMBYism, Trump, water quality... As much as I think taking on Farage is foolish , I can see why taking on Davey doesn't look particularly attractive to Badenoch either.
    No, I would vote for Davey over Farage on some matters but I remain a Tory as long as the party exists
    I assume you know my comment about converting you to the LDs was in jest, although it is nice when we have some views in common.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Anyway Baba Vanga and Nostradamus both deserve plaudits for not prophesying Harris by 3 in Iowa
  • For some light, or serious, relief, depending on how one views such things, the blind "Balkan Nostradamus", Baba Vanga, also had some interesting thoughts on next year.

    Her record was as bizarrely patchy the original Nostradamus, accurately predicting that the 44fh American President would be an African American, for instance, but she also thought he would be last one.

    Her thoughts for next year do catch the eye, though. "There will be contact with extraterrestrials and telepathy will become a reality."

    Either bizarrely or amusingly, this would happen at "a major sporting event."

    Superbowl is 20 days after 47's inauguration.
    There you go.
    Forget that.

    The World Economic Forum in Davos begins on inauguration.

    I’ll be PB’s man on the spot.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569
    If Trump is actually serious about taking on the vested interests, with things like banning the pharma companies from advertising on TV, will it be Elon Musk that covers all of the massive pharma donations that the Reps and Senators get from that industry?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569
    edited November 6
    Cookie said:

    Question: do we call the current Trump the 45th President? Or the 47th? Is this the first time a president has been reeelected after a spell out of office?

    47th. Second time, Grover Cleveland being the other.

    Strictly speaking he isn’t the 47th yet, until 20th Jan.
  • Sandpit said:

    If Trump is actually serious about taking on the vested interests, with things like banning the pharma companies from advertising on TV, will it be Elon Musk that covers all of the massive pharma donations that the Reps and Senators get from that industry?

    No, it’ll be RFK Jnr.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,936
    Where's Kamala

    Should surely be a hashtag by now. Is it?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    edited November 6

    TimS said:

    The Labour position on IHT on farming is so bizarre that they haven't thought through their own lack of logic.

    They posit there is a £22bn black hole NOW, so they will change the IHT rules in 2026. Now probate takes about a year so no estates will be finalised for IHT before April 2027. BUT "we will give them 10 years to pay", and "3/4 won't pay anything in any case". So by their own logic it will raise 1/4 of fuck all in 13 years time ??? Of course this is unlikely to be true.

    No one has spotted the excellent point by KB slipped in but enormously reassuring. In effect the tax which is outstanding at the change of government will be set aside. This has to be so because of end effects and she might not have meant to say it. But Reform Conservatives and Lib Dems will all be committed to that stance in May 2028.

    The IHT is not a huge income earner anyway. The NI changes are the big ones. APR and BPR (particularly APR) are fairness measures - about everyone even Clarkson and Dyson doing their bit.

    More to the point there is plenty of planning available if you’re a business owner or farmer looking to avoid IHT. The most obvious one being give the bloody thing to your children rather than clinging on to it.

    I mean, if you are really interested in a successful succession for your landholdings or your painstakingly built business empire, then do some succession planning. That includes letting your offspring actually take some responsibility and ownership of the family business before they themselves are beyond retirement age.

    Give assets more than 7 years before you die and it’s completely tax free. No matter what it is worth. Life expectancy being around 80 years that means on average giving it to your young whippersnappers when they are in their 50s.
    No, in reality you can't just give it over. I need the income of a rent from my farm to live on. I need to live in the farm house. Thus a gift would be a nullity. You can give your successor a very olong lease and on the face of that that reduces the value by 45% but I guess HMRC will test that in the courts.
    There’s plenty you can do here. I’d strongly suggest getting a tax adviser to talk it through. The big estates are already moving past the spitting feathers stage to the forward planning.

    If your main income is rent then it sounds like you’re a landlord rather than farmer, so there are options to financialise some or all of your assets.

    Remember the farmhouse is a separate asset and there are tenancy arrangements possible.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    For some light, or serious, relief, depending on how one views such things, the blind "Balkan Nostradamus", Baba Vanga, also had some interesting thoughts on next year.

    Her record was as bizarrely patchy the original Nostradamus, accurately predicting that the 44fh American President would be an African American, for instance, but she also thought he would be last one.

    Her thoughts for next year do catch the eye, though. "There will be contact with extraterrestrials and telepathy will become a reality."

    Either bizarrely or amusingly, this would happen at "a major sporting event."

    Superbowl is 20 days after 47's inauguration.
    There you go.
    Forget that.

    The World Economic Forum in Davos begins on inauguration.

    I’ll be PB’s man on the spot.
    Lol, WEF are so yesterday's wankers
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,678
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    A lot depends on what policies the Trump administration actually adopts.

    All the "American carnage" stuff is entirely possible - but for now, we just don't know. The first clue will come with the appointments to his administration (as a "minor" example, will RFK Jnr really get to run health policy ?).
    Trump has won the EC, popular vote and his party has won Congress.

    He is going to do exactly what he said with no checks and put 'America First' with handpicked henchmen better prepared to help him this time unlike 2016 when he had some establishment Republicans he has now ignored
    Entirely possible.

    But it's a matter of whim, so it's inherently unpredictable.
    We will see but at least we are now going to almost certainly see MAGA unleashed in tooth and claw, it has a full mandate and all levers of the Federal government in its hands so if it fails and fails badly Trumpism will have nobody to blame but itself
    Quite right. Okay, I might get a bit concerned if Trump starts nuking places, but other than that I'm quite looking forward to the spectacle. How bad will it get? It's all rather exhilarating!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    SNAP POLL / 57% of Britons are unhappy about Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election

    Very unhappy: 45%
    Fairly unhappy: 12%
    Neither happy nor unhappy: 19%
    Fairly happy: 9%
    Very happy: 11%

    52% of Reform voters are happy with Trump's win however
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1854171492000334303
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    A lot depends on what policies the Trump administration actually adopts.

    All the "American carnage" stuff is entirely possible - but for now, we just don't know. The first clue will come with the appointments to his administration (as a "minor" example, will RFK Jnr really get to run health policy ?).
    Trump has won the EC, popular vote and his party has won Congress.

    He is going to do exactly what he said with no checks and put 'America First' with handpicked henchmen better prepared to help him this time unlike 2016 when he had some establishment Republicans he has now ignored
    Entirely possible.

    But it's a matter of whim, so it's inherently unpredictable.
    We will see but at least we are now going to almost certainly see MAGA unleashed in tooth and claw, it has a full mandate and all levers of the Federal government in its hands so if it fails and fails badly Trumpism will have nobody to blame but itself
    Absolutely.
    But MAGA is ill defined, and could in practice mean anything.

    For instance, will he content himself with harsh enforcement of border security, and a few deportations - or will he really attempt to deport 10m plus individuals ?

    The former won't have huge economic or social effects; the latter would have enormous implications.

    If Stephen Miller is given the brief, then the latter is a lot more likely.
    So watch for administration appointments.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569

    Sandpit said:

    If Trump is actually serious about taking on the vested interests, with things like banning the pharma companies from advertising on TV, will it be Elon Musk that covers all of the massive pharma donations that the Reps and Senators get from that industry?

    No, it’ll be RFK Jnr.
    Is he a billionaire?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,594
    edited November 6

    For some light, or serious, relief, depending on how one views such things, the blind "Balkan Nostradamus", Baba Vanga, also had some interesting thoughts on next year.

    Her record was as bizarrely patchy the original Nostradamus, accurately predicting that the 44fh American President would be an African American, for instance, but she also thought he would be last one.

    Her thoughts for next year do catch the eye, though. "There will be contact with extraterrestrials and telepathy will become a reality."

    Either bizarrely or amusingly, this would happen at "a major sporting event."

    Superbowl is 20 days after 47's inauguration.
    There you go.
    Forget that.

    The World Economic Forum in Davos begins on inauguration.

    I’ll be PB’s man on the spot.
    Lol, WEF are so yesterday's wankers
    Harsh.

    We brought down Liz Truss, we can do the same to Trump.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    I think Badenoch will be reasonably satisfied with the BBC's writeup of PMQs: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz0m9d2dng1o
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
    HYUFD said:

    SNAP POLL / 57% of Britons are unhappy about Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election

    Very unhappy: 45%
    Fairly unhappy: 12%
    Neither happy nor unhappy: 19%
    Fairly happy: 9%
    Very happy: 11%

    52% of Reform voters are happy with Trump's win however
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1854171492000334303

    Why isn't "Terrified" on that list ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I was just recalling the pile on @williamglenn and it appears he was right all along

    Just shows how wrong we can be

    The PB assault on anyone who merely presented data favorable to Trump was a fucking disgrace, and those responsible should walk in shame

    It’s fine to disagree with someone, it’s fine to call them names if you genuinely have data to contradict them, but far far too often on PB, this year, anyone daring to suggest that Trump had a chance because of X, Y or Z was shouted down and called a quasi-Fascist, Trump-enabling shill and worse, and we all know who they are, and who regularly did this on PB

    We saw a similar process vis a vis the Ukrainian war these last two years. Anyone who dared to suggest “well actually the Ukrainian counter attack isn’t going so good”, or “maybe the Ukes won’t reach the Sea of Azov in two weeks”, was roundly abused and hectored and accused of being a Putinite puppet, or, most hilariously, of “undermining morale on PB”

    Get a fucking grip you insecure mental losers
    "Assault" follower by "Get a fucking grip you insecure mental losers"

    If you can't take it...

    This has become a bit of a meme on PB, that anyone who posted anything pro-Trump was bullied off the site. I don't recognise that at all. @williamglenn was called out for posting out only pro-Trump stuff, but it was never done with the kind of vitriol you come out with. Almost everyone here was deeply uncertain about the result - including you!
    I suspect BigG.'s original post was as a mischievous dig at me. I called William out on several occasions for only posting Trump favourable polls when the narrative was favourable to Harris. Was he right all along as BigG. suggests? Probably, but he didn't show his workings so it often came across as trolling.

    And as for Leon gaslighting posters for bullying, what a snowflake!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited November 6
    Driver said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    Bugger me! An HYUFD post I agree with!

    I also agree that Vance is confident, articulate, clever and plausible. He also has no moral compass and so is a shameless political chameleon. Were he to step up to the #1 spot, I am not at all sure what he would stand for or the policies he'd pursue. But economic suicide does not strike me as his taste.
    PS There are some cynics who think Vance will pull Section 4 of the 25th Amendment on Trump
    Would he have a majority of the Cabinet with him?
    I guess we won't know the composition of the Cabinet for a while. And no doubt Trump's inner circle will be selecting based on absolute loyalty to the King Emperor. So I doubt this is something that could be swung soon after transition.

    But, over time, it might be possible for Vance come up with attractive incentives in a new government for, say, the junior half of the Cabinet. Who knows? For the moment, it is just a wry conspiracy theory, which I don't take too seriously and wouldn't necessarily expect to result in a better situation for the USA.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    I’m on the trans-Pennine “express” (lol) and the whole thing is a hugely compelling argument for why we need NPR.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    A lot depends on what policies the Trump administration actually adopts.

    All the "American carnage" stuff is entirely possible - but for now, we just don't know. The first clue will come with the appointments to his administration (as a "minor" example, will RFK Jnr really get to run health policy ?).
    Trump has won the EC, popular vote and his party has won Congress.

    He is going to do exactly what he said with no checks and put 'America First' with handpicked henchmen better prepared to help him this time unlike 2016 when he had some establishment Republicans he has now ignored
    Entirely possible.

    But it's a matter of whim, so it's inherently unpredictable.
    We will see but at least we are now going to almost certainly see MAGA unleashed in tooth and claw, it has a full mandate and all levers of the Federal government in its hands so if it fails and fails badly Trumpism will have nobody to blame but itself
    Absolutely.
    But MAGA is ill defined, and could in practice mean anything.

    For instance, will he content himself with harsh enforcement of border security, and a few deportations - or will he really attempt to deport 10m plus individuals ?

    The former won't have huge economic or social effects; the latter would have enormous implications.

    If Stephen Miller is given the brief, then the latter is a lot more likely.
    So watch for administration appointments.
    Imagine just how much wages can go up, and rents go down, for regular working-class Americans, if those in the country working illegally could actually be deported?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    If they tip the scales bigly to Vance's advantage, none of that matters - ever again.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,394

    Badenoch was quite assured I thought and is a fluent speaker but content-wise she was a flop. Starmer was the clear winner from the exchanges.

    She's a bluffer, I've dealt with them my entire professional life, no matter how assured they are they eventually get caught out such as her defence lie.
    What Conservative leader wouldn't you attack that's currently an MP?
    Cleverly, Hunt, Stride, Trott, Coutinho, Stuart, Argar, Wright.

    This is not an exhaustive list.

    Edit the MP for Leicester East too because she said Dave was awesome and that she had a crush on him.

    Edit II - Alicia Kearns, Andrew Mitchell, Simo Hoare, Caroline Noakes, Alec Shelbrooke, Julian Smith,
    I think you'd attack most of those too.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    HYUFD said:

    SNAP POLL / 57% of Britons are unhappy about Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election

    Very unhappy: 45%
    Fairly unhappy: 12%
    Neither happy nor unhappy: 19%
    Fairly happy: 9%
    Very happy: 11%

    52% of Reform voters are happy with Trump's win however
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1854171492000334303

    Not a great surprise. Badenoch needs to be very careful.

  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 882
    GIN1138 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Can we now all agree that Trump’s McDonalds stunt was possibly the most effective political campaign idea of the last twenty years?

    It is going to be really interesting to know how effective the podcast blitz was for Trump / Vance. Is this the replacement for flood facebook with ads.
    Yes, I know a few political strategists, the old strategies don't work, content has to be memetastic.

    Something that can be shared/forwarded on WhatsApp/TikTok has more potency.
    The thing about a lot of these podcast, particularly the younger focused ones i.e. not Rogan, they are experts at clipping stuff and getting it trending on TikTok / YouTube shorts.
    Interesting if they have finally found a way to turn it into actual votes.

    Labour had a load of success with viral videos during GE2017 and GE2019 and it didn't make much difference in the end. Obviously the US is different but I am always sceptical of saying engagement = votes
    I think one aspect is that the Democrats and CNN / MSNBC / etc keep saying he is literal Orange Hitler. But all these podcasts he doesn't come across like that, so I think that is probably the effective bit, that able to change perceptions. All that experience with the Apprentice, he knows how to play that game e.g. when he went on Rogan, he was engaging about MMA / UFC, well a big proportion of male 19-30s in the US love their MMA.

    And because its all clipped, any in depth chatter about tariff policy (and all the nonsense he was talking), nobody watches that bit.

    I don't think any of the Labour memes about Tories changed any perceptions. Rishi is extremely rich and so rather out of touch, I mean I don't think anybody is suddenly realising that might be the case.
    I should say, I still think first and overwhelmingly foremost, the economy was what did it for Harris. But the podcasts enabled Trump / Vance to sidestep the MSM and project an alternative version of themselves.
    One expects that the MSM CEOs are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect at four more years of Trump, but in reality last night was the day cable news died.

    Trump won on Twitter and podcasts.
    MSM utterly broken by last night and this campaign.
    However the biggest losers would seem to be Rory Stewart and Alistair Campbell who are now their own punchline
    At one time "Rory The Tory" had a big fan club on here...
    I didn't stay up for the whole thing but I did watch TRiP livestream and I did quite like it. Can't stand Scaramucci, but Marina Hyde and Dominic Sandbrook were pretty good. There was an entertaining argument about whether Donald Trump is a fascist. I enjoyed it, but had to dip in and out a fair bit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited November 6
    @JustinTrudeau
    Congratulations to Donald Trump on being elected President of the United States.

    The friendship between Canada and the U.S. is the envy of the world. I know President Trump and I will work together to create more opportunity, prosperity, and security for both of our nations.

    @EmmanuelMacron
    ·
    6h
    Congratulations, President
    @realDonaldTrump
    . Ready to work together as we did for four years. With your convictions and mine. With respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity.

    @narendramodi
    ·
    6h
    Heartiest congratulations my friend
    @realDonaldTrump
    on your historic election victory. As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together,


    @Bundeskanzler
    I congratulate
    @realDonaldTrump
    on his election as US President. For a long time, Germany and the US have been working together successfully promoting prosperity and freedom on both sides of the Atlantic. We will continue to do so for the wellbeing of our citizens.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,301
    edited November 6

    The Labour position on IHT on farming is so bizarre that they haven't thought through their own lack of logic.

    They posit there is a £22bn black hole NOW, so they will change the IHT rules in 2026. Now probate takes about a year so no estates will be finalised for IHT before April 2027. BUT "we will give them 10 years to pay", and "3/4 won't pay anything in any case". So by their own logic it will raise 1/4 of fuck all in 13 years time ??? Of course this is unlikely to be true.

    No one has spotted the excellent point by KB slipped in but enormously reassuring. In effect the tax which is outstanding at the change of government will be set aside. This has to be so because of end effects and she might not have meant to say it. But Reform Conservatives and Lib Dems will all be committed to that stance in May 2028.

    Farmers should be pleased by the IHT changes: They get to pass on their land tax free to their heirs by simply giving it to them shortly after retiring whilst the price of farmland drops because eejits like Dyson & Clarkson no longer have any incentive to buy up vast swathes of agricultural land for the tax benefits, which in turn means the farming community might be able to afford to buy land to farm. Win win all round methinks.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,394
    Nigelb said:

    On topic, and from previous thread, I see a lot of people are still struggling to accept that Trump is the President-Elect of the United States and UK politicians will now have to treat with him on that basis.

    Do you ?
    Err, no.
  • Where is Harris ?
    Where is Biden ?
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,408
    edited November 6
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    SNAP POLL / 57% of Britons are unhappy about Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election

    Very unhappy: 45%
    Fairly unhappy: 12%
    Neither happy nor unhappy: 19%
    Fairly happy: 9%
    Very happy: 11%

    52% of Reform voters are happy with Trump's win however
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1854171492000334303

    Why isn't "Terrified" on that list ?
    I'm mostly feeling sorry for the next generation as they head out into a world of might-is-right and environmental devastation.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    I was just recalling the pile on @williamglenn and it appears he was right all along

    Just shows how wrong we can be

    The PB assault on anyone who merely presented data favorable to Trump was a fucking disgrace, and those responsible should walk in shame

    It’s fine to disagree with someone, it’s fine to call them names if you genuinely have data to contradict them, but far far too often on PB, this year, anyone daring to suggest that Trump had a chance because of X, Y or Z was shouted down and called a quasi-Fascist, Trump-enabling shill and worse, and we all know who they are, and who regularly did this on PB

    We saw a similar process vis a vis the Ukrainian war these last two years. Anyone who dared to suggest “well actually the Ukrainian counter attack isn’t going so good”, or “maybe the Ukes won’t reach the Sea of Azov in two weeks”, was roundly abused and hectored and accused of being a Putinite puppet, or, most hilariously, of “undermining morale on PB”

    Get a fucking grip you insecure mental losers
    "Assault" follower by "Get a fucking grip you insecure mental losers"

    If you can't take it...

    This has become a bit of a meme on PB, that anyone who posted anything pro-Trump was bullied off the site. I don't recognise that at all. @williamglenn was called out for posting out only pro-Trump stuff, but it was never done with the kind of vitriol you come out with. Almost everyone here was deeply uncertain about the result - including you!
    I suspect BigG.'s original post was as a mischievous dig at me. I called William out on several occasions for only posting Trump favourable polls when the narrative was favourable to Harris. Was he right all along as BigG. suggests? Probably, but he didn't show his workings so it often came across as trolling.

    And as for Leon gaslighting posters for bullying, what a snowflake!
    Getting a bit worried about @Leon actually. I had a gentle dig at him in fun just now and he took umbrage. Normally he would joke or insult me back. Of course he could have been winding me up with his reply, but it was a bit subtle if it was.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    For some light, or serious, relief, depending on how one views such things, the blind "Balkan Nostradamus", Baba Vanga, also had some interesting thoughts on next year.

    Her record was as bizarrely patchy the original Nostradamus, accurately predicting that the 44fh American President would be an African American, for instance, but she also thought he would be last one.

    Her thoughts for next year do catch the eye, though. "There will be contact with extraterrestrials and telepathy will become a reality."

    Either bizarrely or amusingly, this would happen at "a major sporting event."

    Superbowl is 20 days after 47's inauguration.
    There you go.
    Forget that.

    The World Economic Forum in Davos begins on inauguration.

    I’ll be PB’s man on the spot.
    Lol, WEF are so yesterday's wankers
    Harsh.

    We brought down Liz Truss, we can do the same to Trump.
    Klaus should stick to coming down chimneys and keeping dubious lists
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Driver said:

    I think Badenoch will be reasonably satisfied with the BBC's writeup of PMQs: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz0m9d2dng1o

    Would that be the Robbie Gibb BBC?

    She was awful. I thought so and Natasha Clark thought so.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    TimT said:

    Driver said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As the US starts early with these sorts of things, so shall I.

    2028 Democratic nominee.

    Has to be one of Buttigieg, Whitmer, Newsom or Shapiro, at this stage, I’d imagine. Walz might give it a go, but I’m not convinced.

    Out of that crowd, my money would be on Buttigieg.

    Walz is surely out, no house effect for Minnesota and Harris' numbers stalled/Trump's went up after he was picked for VP.
    Given the importance of the rustbelt (Yes PA was the swing state) not Newsom (Iowa is close enough I think).

    So one of Buttigieg, Whitmer or Shapiro.
    Vance will win it, easily

    He’s confident, articulate, clever and plausible and the western world is swinging right for the next 20-30 years
    After 4 years of massive tariffs and even higher inflation, abortion restrictions across red states and mass deportations of immigrants I certainly wouldn't be certain of another GOP victory.

    Plus Trump gets a personal vote from white working males who otherwise don't bother voting, Vance wouldn't
    Bugger me! An HYUFD post I agree with!

    I also agree that Vance is confident, articulate, clever and plausible. He also has no moral compass and so is a shameless political chameleon. Were he to step up to the #1 spot, I am not at all sure what he would stand for or the policies he'd pursue. But economic suicide does not strike me as his taste.
    PS There are some cynics who think Vance will pull Section 4 of the 25th Amendment on Trump
    Would he have a majority of the Cabinet with him?
    I guess we won't know the composition of the Cabinet for a while. And no doubt Trump's inner circle will be selecting based on absolute loyalty to the King Emperor. So I doubt this is something that could be swung soon after transition.

    But, over time, it might be possible for Vance come up with attractive incentives in a new government for, say, the junior half of the Cabinet. Who knows? For the moment, it is just a wry conspiracy theory, which I don't take too seriously and wouldn't necessarily expect to result in a better situation for the USA.

    Is it absolute loyalty to Trump, though, or to certain MAGA ideas and controlling the levers of power? I could be wrong but I don't think this is all about Trump the man, it's about what people think he stands for and putting those into practice.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Where is Harris ?
    Where is Biden ?

    And, quite frankly, who cares?

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    HYUFD said:

    @JustinTrudeau
    Congratulations to Donald Trump on being elected President of the United States.

    The friendship between Canada and the U.S. is the envy of the world. I know President Trump and I will work together to create more opportunity, prosperity, and security for both of our nations.

    @EmmanuelMacron
    ·
    6h
    Congratulations, President
    @realDonaldTrump
    . Ready to work together as we did for four years. With your convictions and mine. With respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity.

    Until the Canadian Libs do a '93 very soon then Trudeau is gone, baby
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,808
    I don’t say this in defence of Trump, who after all acted much more dangerously when he lost his election, but this running away and not speaking to supporters that Kamala has done (and Hillary before her did) is really poor form IMHO.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,340
    edited November 6

    HYUFD said:

    SNAP POLL / 57% of Britons are unhappy about Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election

    Very unhappy: 45%
    Fairly unhappy: 12%
    Neither happy nor unhappy: 19%
    Fairly happy: 9%
    Very happy: 11%

    52% of Reform voters are happy with Trump's win however
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1854171492000334303

    Not a great surprise. Badenoch needs to be very careful.
    I used to think it would cause Trump problems with being chummy with Putin, given the historic antipathy of the Republicans to Russia. But Trump wasn't careful about it and he changed the minds of Republican supporters.

    We have to be careful not to take the public's views as fixed. Given the antipathy towards Labour from Tories she might succeed in changing people's views were she to tie antipathy to Trump to being a Labour point of view. If she wanted to.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,773
    Phil said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Can someone explain that last one to me please. I have seen it mentioned several times that Trump is opposed to the CHIPS manufacturing act but I struggle to see why (though much of that is because I only have a very passing idea of what it is). First impressions is that it is designed to support home grown manufacturing and so reduce reliance on China etc. I thougt this was something Trump would be all in favour of. Reduce imports and more US manufacturing. If that is the case then why is he so opposed to it?

    It was Biden's initiative, so it has to die. To be fair, there's a considerable amount of doubt around the CHIPS act being a useful way to spend what is quite a large amount of money. It is, to a large degree, paying foreign manufacturers to set up in the US because the only indigenous chip manufacturer left is Intel and they're a bit of a basket case.

    It's also flawed because it concentrates mostly on semiconductor fabs, but the raw wafers produced by the fabs have to be cut up and the separated dies placed in suitable packaging. That's an increasingly elaborate and difficult job which is not normally done at the fab, but in a another facility. A lot of modern CPUs, FPGAs, etc, actually mount several silicon dies (aka 'chiplets') together on one package, sometimes even stacked on top of each other. That is, if anything, an even larger technical challenge than producing the chips. One of the reasons Intel is in trouble is because their rival AMD has its chips built by TSMC, who are masters at chiplets and die stacking.

    The astounding complexity of the electronics supply chain also mutes the effectiveness of this kind of on-shoring process. As car manufacturers found out to their cost all it takes is one $0.20 microcontroller to be unavailable and you have 99.99% finished cars piling up at factories.

    Fascinating. I was under the impression that the act had "bought" the US a few years of advantage with respect to semiconductors/chip manufacturing vs China. Do you think it hasn't worked at all?
    The chips part of the Chips Act was always more about supply chain security in the event China decides to invade Taiwan than actual manufacturing advantage per se I believe. China is catching up with their indigenous chip production & will probably achieve parity with TSMC et al eventually, or at most be a single process jump behind.
    SMIC is still stuck basically at 14nm which is 3 or 4 gens old already, their "7nm" chip is a rebadged TSMC package. There's no domestic expertise in China to go beyond about 10nm and it's become increasingly difficult for them to steal the tech from the west with all of the sanctions.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,808

    Where is Harris ?
    Where is Biden ?

    Even Biden doesn’t know.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,394

    I am going to post something controversial.

    Had a nice chat with a couple of people from the Royal British Legion stall inside my local Sainsbury’s.

    When I was about to pay I asked them would they prefer cash or card (as they had a card reader) and they said card please because

    1) Handling cash is a PITA and not safe

    2) Donations are definitely up since they’ve had the card reader as hardly anybody carries cash these days.

    So @Anabobazina was collecting today then?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,394

    For some light, or serious, relief, depending on how one views such things, the blind "Balkan Nostradamus", Baba Vanga, also had some interesting thoughts on next year.

    Her record was as bizarrely patchy the original Nostradamus, accurately predicting that the 44fh American President would be an African American, for instance, but she also thought he would be last one.

    Her thoughts for next year do catch the eye, though. "There will be contact with extraterrestrials and telepathy will become a reality."

    Either bizarrely or amusingly, this would happen at "a major sporting event."

    Superbowl is 20 days after 47's inauguration.
    There you go.
    Forget that.

    The World Economic Forum in Davos begins on inauguration.

    I’ll be PB’s man on the spot.
    Lol, WEF are so yesterday's wankers
    They seem incapable of engaging with the world as it is, rather than how they'd like it to be.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,538
    HYUFD said:

    SNAP POLL / 57% of Britons are unhappy about Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election

    Very unhappy: 45%
    Fairly unhappy: 12%
    Neither happy nor unhappy: 19%
    Fairly happy: 9%
    Very happy: 11%

    52% of Reform voters are happy with Trump's win however
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1854171492000334303

    What I take from this poll is it's surprising that as much as around 40% don't mind or are happy.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    Some numbers...

    Harris is currently, with votes still being counted, on 47.4% of the vote. The last UK Prime Minister to get more than 47.4% of the vote was... Harold Wilson in 1966. The last Indian Prime Minister to get more than 47.4% was Nehru in 1957.

    Several US Presidents have won with less than 47.4%: Bill Clinton won in 1992 with 43%; Nixon won in 1968 with 43.4%; Cleveland won in 1892 with 45.9%.

    The last US President to win with over 55% of the vote was Reagan in 1984 (58.8%). Nixon in 1972 was the last to top 60% (60.7%).
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,738
    Fishing said:

    Phil said:

    glw said:

    Well having digested the results from last night I see absolutely no upside for the UK. Trump being reelected is a disaster. I don't see a Trump led US as an ally, much of what Trump intends to do will harm us.

    I suspect that a push to have to UK rejoin the EU will begin quite shortly. It would probably be winnable if it came soon.

    EEA or similar might be doable, can’t see full EU membership being on the agenda for a decade or more.
    EEA would be the worst of both worlds: subject to the EU's whims and having to pay their idiotic fees but with no ability to influence anything.

    Full membership would involve committing to the Euro, which not even Tony Blair in his prime could get through and Starmer is no Blair.

    So I don't see either of those happening in the near future.

    Nor do I think either are particularly necessary. We face plenty of challenges, but they are internally generated, mostly due to a rapacious, underperforming government that sees itself as the solution rather than the problem. Pointlessly reopening the European issue would actually distract us from addressing those.
    It's not pointless and the world has moved on greatly since 2016 or 2012. Indeed, it's moved on greatly since Monday. Those prior assumptions have to be rethought and the consequences worked through.

    I don't believe there is the willpower among politicians to argue for Rejoin but there should be. The case is there to be made. Unfortunately, this generation of politicians seem loathed to make any positive case and to explain it from first principles. It's a skill and a habit that must be relearned.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,807
    TimS said:

    I’m on the trans-Pennine “express” (lol) and the whole thing is a hugely compelling argument for why we need NPR.

    Just another example of woke gone mad. Excluding cisgender people was never to going to work, especially in the Pennines.
This discussion has been closed.