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Going for the pro Trump UK voters was courageous from Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
Going for the pro Trump UK voters was courageous from Badenoch – politicalbetting.com
Today was Kemi Badenoch’s first PMQs as leader of the opposition and her choice of topic was a bit of a dud going after David Lammy for his past comments about Donald Trump.
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If we had a Presidential system, then yes. I could see a Boris comeback being possible, especially after what's happened with Trump.
But in a Parliamentary system it's harder for him to return to Parliament and become Con leader and then PM.
I wouldn't rule it out as with Boris Johnson you never rule anything out, but I don't think it's very likely.
Actually the real question is does Boris want to give up earning millions for doing buttons. What would Mrs Johnson have to say about that?
Despite some brave words from the PB Tories, a poor start for Badenoch at PMQs but she has plenty of time to improve. I mean, William Hague consistently performed well at PMQs much good it did him at the election.
As I said earlier, the rhetoric of campaigning, the words used to galvanise the faithful at rallies, the promises and pledges at debates mean little faced with the reality of Government.
Even if Trump and the GOP get the clean sweep, they will still face the same problems and they'll have no one but themselves to blame if they don't succeed or at least make headway on some of their pledges.
And I can't imagine that many floating voters will think today "oh, it's Badenoch's first PMQs, I must watch that".
But then I'd not have had him as FS.
So he might surprise on the upside.
Arizona pro abortion - yes - 62% - passed
Colorado pro abortion - yes - 62% - passed
Florida pro abortion - yes - 57% - failed as needed to get to 60%
Maryland pro abortion - yes - 74% - passed
Missouri pro abortion - yes - 52% - passed
Montana pro abortion - yes - 57% - passed
Nebraska pro abortion - yes - 49% - not finalised
Nebraska anti abortion - yes - 55% - not finalised
Nevada pro abortion - yes - 63% - passed
New York pro abortion - yes - 62% - passed
South Dakota pro abortion - yes - 41% - failed
Shows that pro abortion measures are popular even in many red states but that it didn't necessarily translate to voters also then picking Harris
The Dakotas voted no to legalising marijuana. A majority voted yes in Florida but it was less than 60% so failed.
2) The Republicans don't like it for reasons unknown
So they will bin it and replace it with something identical that Trump can claim as his own...
Also when the government is screwing up, and the ball starts rolling, it is often better not to say too much. The whole freebies, the Tories basically said nothing, which was very wise (as they obviously take freebies too).
What you need to have done is position yourself as a credible alternative when the public decides that the current mob is useless.....and that is Boris problem....
It seems like Harris's team believed abortion would win it for them. But voters went, I can vote Trump on the economy and also just vote for abortion in my state anyway.
She seems a serious thinker, quoting the likes of Thomas Sowell, Roger Scruton, Daron Acemoglu, Jonathan Haidt. I question whether she can be bothered with the detail.
This podcast with Tom McTague was pretty good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ov739t36Mpg
E.g today, on Lammy, the message is - this might undermine our relations with the US and therefore it was a risk appointing Lammy as FS, ergo Starmer has bad judgement.
She didn’t join the dots and think on her feet. Too scripted (which then backfired when she was then accused of reading from a script). She actually is usually confident and articulate when she’s not reading from a script. I suspect she over-prepared today, and she lose some of her incisiveness as a result.
I can imagine the comparison continuing to hold true through his later years, with a series of increasingly-delusional attempts to regain power or even just influence.
Lets hope he skips the sucking up to foreign fascists stage before he finally descends into senility...
But Starmer did, and so it's fair game to comment, especially when today PMQs is probably only getting onto the news if it links into the Trump coverage that will dominate the day.
Badenoch can say what she wants - but she's clearly not yet aiming for younger/centrist voters under the age of 50.
It's not clear what Trump will actually do in government - which is the point of the list.
I am surprised at her defence error, but a full pile on her on her first outing seems a bit over the top not least as there is only one subject on in the media and indeed Sky switched away from from PMQs when Badenoch Starmer moment concluded
I am also aware many are shocked at what has happened and angry but then democracy has spoken and Trump is king of all he surveys for the next 4 years
Anyone denying Trump's mental state just needs to look at any of his recent speeches.
Surely the audience was pro-Trump anyway?
Something that can be shared/forwarded on WhatsApp/TikTok has more potency.
That is definitely unpatriotic.
Lammy might have been a fool, but it's silly to try to undermine attempts by the government to maintain reasonable relations with the US.
We've got four and half years of Keir Vs Kemi and I'm sure she'll have better (and worse) outing's.
Edit: The main telling point was all the Labour MP's starting their questions with "Kemi said this. Kemi said that" lol!
Under the U.S. constutution, couldn't Kamala Harris could become President for two or three months ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpvzjr8w9mxo
..Firstly, the dinner the prime minister and the Foreign Secretary David Lammy had with the president-elect at Trump Tower in New York in September.
Trump, sources say, re-arranged his schedule to find time to meet Starmer and Lammy, which was seen as a “good gesture” with the soon to be president.
Secondly, the prime minister managed an early call with Donald Trump shortly after he survived an assassination attempt.
Both opportunities to talk to Trump are put down to an impressive diplomatic operation at the British Embassy in Washington – led by the ambassador Dame Karen Pierce.
Those close to the foreign secretary say he has also been putting in the leg work for months – including before the election – to get to know and to understand Donald Trump and those around him.
On a visit to Washington DC in May, he pointed out in a speech that it was his seventh visit to the US capital in three and a half years.
“I’ve been to the United States more times than I’ve been to France. I’ve lived in America, I’ve studied in America, I’ve got family in America. My father is buried in Texas,” he told an audience at the Hudson Institute.
He described Trump as “often misunderstood,” referred to the Vice President Elect JD Vance as “my friend” and added “I totally get the agenda…that drives America First,” a reference to the phrase Trump used in his Inauguration Speech in January 2017 to spell out that “every decision…will be made to benefit American workers and American families.”..
Labour had a load of success with viral videos during GE2017 and GE2019 and it didn't make much difference in the end. Obviously the US is different but I am always sceptical of saying engagement = votes
a) She has just highlighted the Labour's government issues with Trump who is known to hold a grudge and undone Starmer's congratulation letter. If we are going to have decent relations with Trump was that a good idea to do this. Country before politics; she could have done a lot of harm if and when this gets back to him. What will it do to our relationship with him.
b) As pointed out in the header and me on the last thread only Reform voters agree with her on Trump so she is alienating a lot of voters across all other parties. OK not by just this, but presumably she will follow it up with other statements if she is going to pitch the Tories along Trump lines. I'm sure the Tory candidates in the County elections in the home counties will appreciate the tack she has taken.
c) It was her first PMQs. She could have gone down a non party line. As several of us suggested Ukraine would have been a good pitch, particularly as it is important for Europe, particularly now, so some relevant questions could have been asked. She presented well so she could have got some good headlines across the political spectrum rather than some politically biased stuff on the news tonight.
But one of the reasons I didn't bet on Potus 2024 was that I noticed several weeks ago that btc was functioning as a proxy bet on a Trump victory, i.e. every time it looked more likely, bitcoin went up and vice versa. And the amount I have in my coinbase account is more than enough exposure to that market - indeed, I'm quite a few quid "up" this morning without placing a single bet. More so than if I'd punted a few hundred quid on Trump at 1.6, with much lower downside risk if he didn't win.
So it was always clear it was going to rocket after a Trump victory. Trump spoke at the bitcoin conference and despite clearly not understanding it as a technology, said all the things the bitcoin bros wanted to hear on regulation and adoption.
Overall, I suspect price was waiting for certainty before moving, leading to a lot of traders sitting out in cash the last few weeks now jumping back in. I suspect the bitcoin bros will be disappointed, Trump doesn't care about it one way or the other. But he did make the effort to court that market in ways Kamala didn't. Worth noting that 40% of Americans own crypto in one form or another, so it's not exactly a niche audience.
The big news in the space is of course the ETFs gobbling up everything in sight. Blackrock and Fidelity betwen them now custody $36359m of bitcoin on behalf of their clients. While Joe Sixpack buyinng a few hundred bucks in Coinbase is nowhere to be seen. The typical buyer in 2024 has been a rich investor looking to allocate a % of their portfolio via an ETF, which OG whales have been selling into, heavily - hence the price not being far higher than it is.
My prediction is that if the halving doesn't lead to a significant price rise over the next six months as it has in the past two cycles, it will be seen as a bit of a busted flush and slowly fade away. If on the other hand it even reaches a multiple of 10x from the previous cycle low (currently at a multiple of 5x, vs peak multiples of 100x and 20x in 2017 and 2021 respectively), it's hold on to your hats time.
One other noteworthy point: Trump promised to pardon Ross Ulbricht. A good measure of how much Trump cares about the bitcoin bros will be whether he comes good on that promise or not. My guess is - not.
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-opposition-leaders-first-pmqs-a-history-lesson/
I suspect that a push to have to UK rejoin the EU will begin quite shortly. It would probably be winnable if it came soon.
Sure, there were always comments pointing out the different between them and now, but many fewer people read the comments.
And because its all clipped, any in depth chatter about tariff policy (and all the nonsense he was talking), nobody watches that bit.
I don't think any of the Labour memes about Tories changed any perceptions. Rishi is extremely rich and so rather out of touch, I mean I don't think anybody is suddenly realising that might be the case.
Harris - if you love your daughter you'll vote D.
No wonder she made no inroads with men whatsoever.
What was silly was signalling support for Trump in your first PMQs, even if indirectly. That coupled with the defence mistake makes her sound like an alt-right troll account spouting off on twitter.
She could have gone on Ukraine or even a brutal attack on employer NICs hitting "working people". Or more on the farmers stuff. Or winter fuel payment. Loads of alternatives.
Earlier he said this: https://x.com/DavidLammy/status/1854077924686573734?t=dkZZqVEWqcuVjjnzTrdx6A&s=19
Sigh....
I guess his time may still come in 18 months or so.
Dear Verulamius,
This is a very dark day.
I’m sure you’re very worried about what Donald Trump’s election will mean – for the future of the world, and for the values we all hold dear. I’m worried too.
But you have the power to do something about it. Together, our party will stand up to Donald Trump’s nasty, divisive politics and defend our values of decency, compassion and equality – at home and around the world.
So do something today: ask five friends to join the Liberal Democrats.
Send them this link and tell them they can be part of the liberal, progressive and internationalist movement the world needs now more than ever:
www.libdems.org.uk/join
Because the next President of the United States is a dangerous demagogue, who actively undermines the rule of law, human rights, international trade, climate action, global security… the list goes on.
Millions of Americans – especially women and minorities – will be incredibly fearful about what comes next. We stand with them.
Families across the UK will also be worrying about the damage Trump will do to our economy and our national security, given his record of starting trade wars, undermining NATO and emboldening tyrants like Putin.
That makes fixing the UK’s broken relationship with the EU even more urgent than it already was. We must strengthen trade and defence cooperation across Europe to help protect ourselves from the damage Trump will do. And only the Liberal Democrats are fighting to do that.
This is not the result any of us wanted to see. And I know it’ll take a while to come to terms with it. But I also know we won’t let that stop us from standing up proudly for our liberal values.
Best wishes at a very difficult time,
Ed Davey MP
Leader of the Liberal Democrats
(he/him)
Why not just take an independent stand in our own national interest?
The reality is that Lammy should have been ruled out of consideration for Foreign Secretary because of his track record of saying stupid things like his comments on DJT. This mess was entirely predictable when he was appointed, and it reflects very badly on Starmer that he gave him the job anyway.
It's entirely fair game for Kemmi to point this out.
b) That's too big a "presumably" to extrapolate from one PMQs.
C) She said something that will get on the news tonight and given that said news will be dominated by Trump, that's presumably what she was aiming at.
Full membership would involve committing to the Euro, which not even Tony Blair in his prime could get through and Starmer is no Blair.
So I don't see either of those happening in the near future.
Nor do I think either are particularly necessary. We face plenty of challenges, but they are internally generated, mostly due to a rapacious, underperforming government that sees itself as the solution rather than the problem. Pointlessly reopening the European issue would actually distract us from addressing those.
There is only one topic today snd that is Trump and highlighting Lammys toxic words is just politics
Also it is worth considering just how this may change the narrative in UK politics and how Starmer deals with it as his party are so very anti Trump
Labour have years in office ahead of them. There are plenty of other things to attack them on; this is one which might help the Tories but it certainly doesn't help the UK.
Listening to PMWs, I think that both Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch have time to learn, and both are inexperienced.
The most notable thing for me was quite how blunt Keir Starmer was in his comments on Dawn Butler's racist attack on Kemi Badenoch.
I think KB needs to reduce her number of self-trip-ups. I trust that someone on the Labour benches is keeping a list.
I'm surprised the Govt are going quite so softly on the "Conservative Black Hole"; there are all kinds of things which are on top of that which has been identified - starting with the £10bn+ of unfunded compensation.
Dems need a wholesale clear out of the old guard of the Biden, Pelosi, Schumer types and to very carefully consider what got them so badly humped this time
It's also flawed because it concentrates mostly on semiconductor fabs, but the raw wafers produced by the fabs have to be cut up and the separated dies placed in suitable packaging. That's an increasingly elaborate and difficult job which is not normally done at the fab, but in a another facility. A lot of modern CPUs, FPGAs, etc, actually mount several silicon dies (aka 'chiplets') together on one package, sometimes even stacked on top of each other. That is, if anything, an even larger technical challenge than producing the chips. One of the reasons Intel is in trouble is because their rival AMD has its chips built by TSMC, who are masters at chiplets and die stacking.
The astounding complexity of the electronics supply chain also mutes the effectiveness of this kind of on-shoring process. As car manufacturers found out to their cost all it takes is one $0.20 microcontroller to be unavailable and you have 99.99% finished cars piling up at factories.
Just shows how wrong we can be
Florida: Trump 56%, Harris 43%
New York: Harris 55%, Trump 45%
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFzpsOr854I
What so many still fail to realise is that had this been considered seriously before the Brexit vote we never would have Brexiteed, but both sides preferred to ignore it, rather than listen, and try to force a binary choice that they could settle the issue with.
Unfortunately, it didn't go their way. There's a lesson there. One that sadly hasn't been fully learnt yet.