Go for Harris EC, Trump popular vote like me. Even if still unlikely it is much more likely than Trump winning the popular vote was in 2016 or 2020 and the evidence is Harris is sneaking ahead in the bluewall even if Trump is winning the other swing states Biden won where GOP turnout also seems to be higher
Yet the betting situation has so often been 180 degrees wrong, before an election like this.
Americans are strange folk, for sure. But as friends of America we shouldn’t conclude that they are, in the majority, total idiots, without some solid evidence.
“Unless he, you know, WINS - despite all the many attempts to kill him, at least one of which came within a bloody inch of blowing out his brains”
I only repost it because some infernal fucker FLAGGED it. Why? It’s the truth. There have been several assassination attempts on Trump which a lot of people have very conveniently forgotten - with quite amazing speed - and one of them was millimetres from success
Yet the betting situation has so often been 180 degrees wrong, before an election like this.
Americans are strange folk, for sure. But as friends of America we shouldn’t conclude that they are, in the majority, total idiots, without some solid evidence.
Go for Harris EC, Trump popular vote like me. Even if still unlikely it is much more likely than Trump winning the popular vote was in 2016 or 2020 and the evidence is Harris is sneaking ahead in the bluewall even if Trump is winning the other swing states Biden won where GOP turnout also seems to be higher
It is extremely unlikely. Much less than 1% chance in my opinion. How many simulations have you run to come to this conclusion?
Go for Harris EC, Trump popular vote like me. Even if still unlikely it is much more likely than Trump winning the popular vote was in 2016 or 2020 and the evidence is Harris is sneaking ahead in the bluewall even if Trump is winning the other swing states Biden won where GOP turnout also seems to be higher
My concern with that result (although I half expect it) is that it will lead to Trump complaining forever that he won the election and has been cheated out of it..
Yet the betting situation has so often been 180 degrees wrong, before an election like this.
Americans are strange folk, for sure. But as friends of America we shouldn’t conclude that they are, in the majority, total idiots, without some solid evidence.
Wasn’t the Brexit betting wrong until the wee smalls?
Speaking of which, where is the final prediction of the great @Andy_JS?!
Yet the betting situation has so often been 180 degrees wrong, before an election like this.
Americans are strange folk, for sure. But as friends of America we shouldn’t conclude that they are, in the majority, total idiots, without some solid evidence.
Solid evidence?
Trump probably getting 80 million votes? Guns? Healthcare? Giving Ukrainians weapons then not letting them use them effectively?
Go for Harris EC, Trump popular vote like me. Even if still unlikely it is much more likely than Trump winning the popular vote was in 2016 or 2020 and the evidence is Harris is sneaking ahead in the bluewall even if Trump is winning the other swing states Biden won where GOP turnout also seems to be higher
My concern with that result (although I half expect it) is that it will lead to Trump complaining forever that he won the election and has been cheated out of it..
Two questions arise. First, a group of individuals is tautologous. Second, why is he without a phone for the foreseeable future? Have all London's electrical retailers closed for bonfire night? He could buy a phone and have the old number transferred in less than an hour if he put his mind to it, and charge the whole lot to expenses.
Go for Harris EC, Trump popular vote like me. Even if still unlikely it is much more likely than Trump winning the popular vote was in 2016 or 2020 and the evidence is Harris is sneaking ahead in the bluewall even if Trump is winning the other swing states Biden won where GOP turnout also seems to be higher
Trump isn’t going to win the popular vote. That’s the sort of bet that Casino likes to lose, thinking that the odds of his losing were lower than the odds on offer; yet the bet comes in as a loss all the same.
“Unless he, you know, WINS - despite all the many attempts to kill him, at least one of which came within a bloody inch of blowing out his brains”
I only repost it because some infernal fucker FLAGGED it. Why? It’s the truth. There have been several assassination attempts on Trump which a lot of people have very conveniently forgotten - with quite amazing speed - and one of them was millimetres from success
Go for Harris EC, Trump popular vote like me. Even if still unlikely it is much more likely than Trump winning the popular vote was in 2016 or 2020 and the evidence is Harris is sneaking ahead in the bluewall even if Trump is winning the other swing states Biden won where GOP turnout also seems to be higher
My concern with that result (although I half expect it) is that it will lead to Trump complaining forever that he won the election and has been cheated out of it..
Go for Harris EC, Trump popular vote like me. Even if still unlikely it is much more likely than Trump winning the popular vote was in 2016 or 2020 and the evidence is Harris is sneaking ahead in the bluewall even if Trump is winning the other swing states Biden won where GOP turnout also seems to be higher
My concern with that result (although I half expect it) is that it will lead to Trump complaining forever that he won the election and has been cheated out of it..
He'll say that anyway, because the alternative is his psyche collapsing entirely.
Two questions arise. First, a group of individuals is tautologous. Second, why is he without a phone for the foreseeable future? Have all London's electrical retailers closed for bonfire night? He could buy a phone and have the old number transferred in less than an hour if he put his mind to it, and charge the whole lot to expenses.
Perhaps he cannot foresee more than an hour in the future?
I thought that quite good and pretty obvious so surprised I hadn't seen it before.
Thanks for the replies re my googlemaps image question. Fairly straight forward reasons for the anomaly. Looked really weird though to see 2 things in a picture that could not both be there at the same time.
Go for Harris EC, Trump popular vote like me. Even if still unlikely it is much more likely than Trump winning the popular vote was in 2016 or 2020 and the evidence is Harris is sneaking ahead in the bluewall even if Trump is winning the other swing states Biden won where GOP turnout also seems to be higher
My concern with that result (although I half expect it) is that it will lead to Trump complaining forever that he won the election and has been cheated out of it..
His closing days campaign has clearly been aimed mostly at setting up the pre-planned ‘election stolen’ narrative, rather than actually trying to win.
Go for Harris EC, Trump popular vote like me. Even if still unlikely it is much more likely than Trump winning the popular vote was in 2016 or 2020 and the evidence is Harris is sneaking ahead in the bluewall even if Trump is winning the other swing states Biden won where GOP turnout also seems to be higher
It is extremely unlikely. Much less than 1% chance in my opinion. How many simulations have you run to come to this conclusion?
TIPP was the most accurate pollster nationally in 2020 and has it tied now, with Trump a mere 0.3% ahead nationally.
Most swing state polls have Arizona, Georgia and NC going Trump and Nevada leaning that way but with Harris with the edge in Michigan, Wisconsin, NE02 and by a hair in Pennsylvania.
So I would say it is now more like a 40% change not 1%
I thought that quite good and pretty obvious so surprised I hadn't seen it before.
Thanks for the replies re my googlemaps image question. Fairly straight forward reasons for the anomaly. Looked really weird though to see 2 things in a picture that could not both be there at the same time.
If you want to see the data for a particular time, it is better on the Google Earth application.
With that you can bring up a timeline and usually go back to the early 2000s.
Listening to Shelagh Fogerty on LBC she had a guy called Dan, a Brit from New Jersey, who claims NJ is going red. Previously a woman called Gemma from Britain who voted for Harris in NY says that her friends are all voting Trump. They are suggesting a Trump landslide based on the economy.
William Glenn has called this.
Damn
Just imagine if New Jersey and Virginia went red with Iowa and Kansas blue.
Just hold that thought for one second.
I think more likely is NJ and Virginia are much closer but narrow Harris wins still but Iowa and Kansas are also closer but Iowa goes for Harris and Kansas still goes Trump. So main impact is boost for Trump in popular vote as former 2 are more populous but boost for Harris in EC with Iowa
Based on early votes and mail ins Democrats ahead 59% to 21% for GOP in NJ and 50% to 38% for the GOP in Virginia.
Dems tied 39% each with GOP in Iowa but GOP ahead in Kansas 52% to 33%.
Republicans also ahead on early votes in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and by 1% in NC. Democrats ahead on early votes in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin with Michigan tied.
Though the Research Michigan poll had fewer 2020 Biden voters voting Trump than 2020 Trump voters voting Harris with Harris leading with Independents in Michigan (whereas in Pennsylvania more 2020 Biden voters are voting Trump than 2020 Trump voters voting Harris albeit Harris still had a 1% lead there overall)
Given the existence of Independents (and the expectation of more Republicans voting for Harris than Democrats voting for Trump), shouldn't a tie between Republicans and Democrats in these terms translate to a lead for Harris?
This seems very plausible.
There seems to be a pretty strong consensus that interpreting early voting is very difficult, but isn't it interesting that the leads in those NBC numbers are consistent with mainstream polling everywhere but in Iowa, which is consistent with Selzer?
Go for Harris EC, Trump popular vote like me. Even if still unlikely it is much more likely than Trump winning the popular vote was in 2016 or 2020 and the evidence is Harris is sneaking ahead in the bluewall even if Trump is winning the other swing states Biden won where GOP turnout also seems to be higher
My concern with that result (although I half expect it) is that it will lead to Trump complaining forever that he won the election and has been cheated out of it..
He'll say that anyway, because the alternative is his psyche collapsing entirely.
Haven't been on ChatGPT for about a year, so I thought I'd see if they've improved their factual information replies.
They haven't.
My question: "How many votes did the Conservatives poll in the Huntingdon constituency at the 1983 general election?"
Answer: "In the 1983 UK general election, the Conservative Party candidate in the Huntingdon constituency, John Major, received 32,833 votes, winning with 54.2% of the vote. This was a strong performance in a safe Conservative seat, marking the beginning of a prominent political career for Major, who would later become Prime Minister."
In fact he polled 34,254 votes at that election.
Claude 3.6’s answer:
“Since this is a very specific historical electoral statistic from a single constituency, I should note that while I try to be accurate, I may hallucinate specific numbers like this. The Conservatives won Huntingdon in 1983 (with John Major as their candidate), but I don't want to state a specific vote total without being completely certain of the figure. I'd recommend checking official electoral records or the BBC's historical election database for the exact number.”
Admirable self-awareness
Stop talking about AI, you know the rules.
PB will be left sadly uneducated, but fair enough in this instance
Here’s a photo of Gyeong-ju
I love and hate Korea all at the same time. It has really annoying rules - no booze without food! - enforced by quite odd people, but at the right moment it enchants. It is, in other words, PB turned into a nation, with a similarly ageing population
Go to a bloody convenience store and buy your booze. You can probably drink it there.
And is a likely a more authentic experience than Gyeong-ju...
I quite liked the authentic inauthenticity of Gyeong-ju. Also liked the zealously manicured 1500 year old Silla kingdom tombs. Tho I reduced my stay there from two nights to one
Yes, the historic surroundings are great (though quite a few of the tombs were desecrated by less than sympathetic Japanese archaeologists during the occupation, and subsequently restored).
The National museum nearby is fantastic - did you visit ? The Silla stuff there includes those solid gold bling shoes, which would make TSE weep with envy,
Two questions arise. First, a group of individuals is tautologous. Second, why is he without a phone for the foreseeable future? Have all London's electrical retailers closed for bonfire night? He could buy a phone and have the old number transferred in less than an hour if he put his mind to it, and charge the whole lot to expenses.
A third: "Unfortunately, they just took my phone" - was he hoping more would be stolen?
Haven't been on ChatGPT for about a year, so I thought I'd see if they've improved their factual information replies.
They haven't.
My question: "How many votes did the Conservatives poll in the Huntingdon constituency at the 1983 general election?"
Answer: "In the 1983 UK general election, the Conservative Party candidate in the Huntingdon constituency, John Major, received 32,833 votes, winning with 54.2% of the vote. This was a strong performance in a safe Conservative seat, marking the beginning of a prominent political career for Major, who would later become Prime Minister."
In fact he polled 34,254 votes at that election.
Claude 3.6’s answer:
“Since this is a very specific historical electoral statistic from a single constituency, I should note that while I try to be accurate, I may hallucinate specific numbers like this. The Conservatives won Huntingdon in 1983 (with John Major as their candidate), but I don't want to state a specific vote total without being completely certain of the figure. I'd recommend checking official electoral records or the BBC's historical election database for the exact number.”
Admirable self-awareness
Stop talking about AI, you know the rules.
PB will be left sadly uneducated, but fair enough in this instance
Here’s a photo of Gyeong-ju
I love and hate Korea all at the same time. It has really annoying rules - no booze without food! - enforced by quite odd people, but at the right moment it enchants. It is, in other words, PB turned into a nation, with a similarly ageing population
Go to a bloody convenience store and buy your booze. You can probably drink it there.
And is a likely a more authentic experience than Gyeong-ju...
I quite liked the authentic inauthenticity of Gyeong-ju. Also liked the zealously manicured 1500 year old Silla kingdom tombs. Tho I reduced my stay there from two nights to one
Yes, the historic surroundings are great (though quite a few of the tombs were desecrated by less than sympathetic Japanese archaeologists during the occupation, and subsequently restored).
The National museum nearby is fantastic - did you visit ? The Silla stuff there includes those solid gold bling shoes, which would make TSE weep with envy,
Didn’t visit. Decided you can’t do it all - and I’ve now been on the road for THREE WEEKS of constant movement. And now it looks like there will be a fourth movement in the Phillipines
Two questions arise. First, a group of individuals is tautologous. Second, why is he without a phone for the foreseeable future? Have all London's electrical retailers closed for bonfire night? He could buy a phone and have the old number transferred in less than an hour if he put his mind to it, and charge the whole lot to expenses.
A third: "Unfortunately, they just took my phone" - was he hoping more would be stolen?
Haven't been on ChatGPT for about a year, so I thought I'd see if they've improved their factual information replies.
They haven't.
My question: "How many votes did the Conservatives poll in the Huntingdon constituency at the 1983 general election?"
Answer: "In the 1983 UK general election, the Conservative Party candidate in the Huntingdon constituency, John Major, received 32,833 votes, winning with 54.2% of the vote. This was a strong performance in a safe Conservative seat, marking the beginning of a prominent political career for Major, who would later become Prime Minister."
In fact he polled 34,254 votes at that election.
Claude 3.6’s answer:
“Since this is a very specific historical electoral statistic from a single constituency, I should note that while I try to be accurate, I may hallucinate specific numbers like this. The Conservatives won Huntingdon in 1983 (with John Major as their candidate), but I don't want to state a specific vote total without being completely certain of the figure. I'd recommend checking official electoral records or the BBC's historical election database for the exact number.”
Admirable self-awareness
Stop talking about AI, you know the rules.
PB will be left sadly uneducated, but fair enough in this instance
Here’s a photo of Gyeong-ju
I love and hate Korea all at the same time. It has really annoying rules - no booze without food! - enforced by quite odd people, but at the right moment it enchants. It is, in other words, PB turned into a nation, with a similarly ageing population
Go to a bloody convenience store and buy your booze. You can probably drink it there.
And is a likely a more authentic experience than Gyeong-ju...
I quite liked the authentic inauthenticity of Gyeong-ju. Also liked the zealously manicured 1500 year old Silla kingdom tombs. Tho I reduced my stay there from two nights to one
Yes, the historic surroundings are great (though quite a few of the tombs were desecrated by less than sympathetic Japanese archaeologists during the occupation, and subsequently restored).
The National museum nearby is fantastic - did you visit ? The Silla stuff there includes those solid gold bling shoes, which would make TSE weep with envy,
Didn’t visit. Decided you can’t do it all - and I’ve now been on the road for THREE WEEKS of constant movement. And now it looks like there will be a fourth movement in the Phillipines
Wanna see the DMZ tho. Think I can cope with that
Did you arrange a local flight or somewhere to stay? Seoul > London > Manila is a little bonkers if you don’t *really* need to be in London.
Re NJ going red. Like NY, I wouldn't bet the farm on it but do remember that:
(1) The last Governor's races in both states were a lot closer than expected:
- NY: D 54 - R 46 - NJ: D 51 - R 48
(2) Since then, in both states, the situation has gone backwards for the Democrats in both states, particularly NY
I am going to put a small amount on both.
Comments:
> Non-presidential year turnout is lower than POTUS-year turnout, which CAN be factor > Even more of a factor, is that many voters use different criteria when voting for POTUS (particularly when one of the candidates is DJT) than in voting for Governor; this is true when both races are on the same ballot, and perhaps even truer when Govs are elected in different yeear(s) and NOT on same ballot. > Perhaps biggest factor in 2022 in NY and NJ, neither of the Democratic incumbent governors was (or is) what you'd call extraordinarily popular, they both were hauling around considerable political baggage.
Haven't been on ChatGPT for about a year, so I thought I'd see if they've improved their factual information replies.
They haven't.
My question: "How many votes did the Conservatives poll in the Huntingdon constituency at the 1983 general election?"
Answer: "In the 1983 UK general election, the Conservative Party candidate in the Huntingdon constituency, John Major, received 32,833 votes, winning with 54.2% of the vote. This was a strong performance in a safe Conservative seat, marking the beginning of a prominent political career for Major, who would later become Prime Minister."
In fact he polled 34,254 votes at that election.
Claude 3.6’s answer:
“Since this is a very specific historical electoral statistic from a single constituency, I should note that while I try to be accurate, I may hallucinate specific numbers like this. The Conservatives won Huntingdon in 1983 (with John Major as their candidate), but I don't want to state a specific vote total without being completely certain of the figure. I'd recommend checking official electoral records or the BBC's historical election database for the exact number.”
Admirable self-awareness
Stop talking about AI, you know the rules.
PB will be left sadly uneducated, but fair enough in this instance
Here’s a photo of Gyeong-ju
I love and hate Korea all at the same time. It has really annoying rules - no booze without food! - enforced by quite odd people, but at the right moment it enchants. It is, in other words, PB turned into a nation, with a similarly ageing population
Go to a bloody convenience store and buy your booze. You can probably drink it there.
And is a likely a more authentic experience than Gyeong-ju...
I quite liked the authentic inauthenticity of Gyeong-ju. Also liked the zealously manicured 1500 year old Silla kingdom tombs. Tho I reduced my stay there from two nights to one
Yes, the historic surroundings are great (though quite a few of the tombs were desecrated by less than sympathetic Japanese archaeologists during the occupation, and subsequently restored).
The National museum nearby is fantastic - did you visit ? The Silla stuff there includes those solid gold bling shoes, which would make TSE weep with envy,
Didn’t visit. Decided you can’t do it all - and I’ve now been on the road for THREE WEEKS of constant movement. And now it looks like there will be a fourth movement in the Phillipines
Wanna see the DMZ tho. Think I can cope with that
Did you arrange a local flight or somewhere to stay? Seoul > London > Manila is a little bonkers if you don’t *really* need to be in London.
Yes thanks to excellent PB advice I’m flying direct Incheon-Manila. Which gives me a few more relaxed days in Seoul’s pleasantly cool autumn sunshine - and a chance to recuperate and see the DMZ
Re NJ going red. Like NY, I wouldn't bet the farm on it but do remember that:
(1) The last Governor's races in both states were a lot closer than expected:
- NY: D 54 - R 46 - NJ: D 51 - R 48
(2) Since then, in both states, the situation has gone backwards for the Democrats in both states, particularly NY
I am going to put a small amount on both.
Oh no, this is a Trump landslide isn't it?
Gubernatorial races are the one set of races that often produce a result at variance with the State's political lean (so you can get Republicans winning Vermont or Massachussetts, Democrats winning Kansas or Louisiana). One should not read too much into them.
Haven't been on ChatGPT for about a year, so I thought I'd see if they've improved their factual information replies.
They haven't.
My question: "How many votes did the Conservatives poll in the Huntingdon constituency at the 1983 general election?"
Answer: "In the 1983 UK general election, the Conservative Party candidate in the Huntingdon constituency, John Major, received 32,833 votes, winning with 54.2% of the vote. This was a strong performance in a safe Conservative seat, marking the beginning of a prominent political career for Major, who would later become Prime Minister."
In fact he polled 34,254 votes at that election.
Claude 3.6’s answer:
“Since this is a very specific historical electoral statistic from a single constituency, I should note that while I try to be accurate, I may hallucinate specific numbers like this. The Conservatives won Huntingdon in 1983 (with John Major as their candidate), but I don't want to state a specific vote total without being completely certain of the figure. I'd recommend checking official electoral records or the BBC's historical election database for the exact number.”
Admirable self-awareness
Stop talking about AI, you know the rules.
PB will be left sadly uneducated, but fair enough in this instance
Here’s a photo of Gyeong-ju
I love and hate Korea all at the same time. It has really annoying rules - no booze without food! - enforced by quite odd people, but at the right moment it enchants. It is, in other words, PB turned into a nation, with a similarly ageing population
Go to a bloody convenience store and buy your booze. You can probably drink it there.
And is a likely a more authentic experience than Gyeong-ju...
I quite liked the authentic inauthenticity of Gyeong-ju. Also liked the zealously manicured 1500 year old Silla kingdom tombs. Tho I reduced my stay there from two nights to one
Yes, the historic surroundings are great (though quite a few of the tombs were desecrated by less than sympathetic Japanese archaeologists during the occupation, and subsequently restored).
The National museum nearby is fantastic - did you visit ? The Silla stuff there includes those solid gold bling shoes, which would make TSE weep with envy,
Didn’t visit. Decided you can’t do it all - and I’ve now been on the road for THREE WEEKS of constant movement. And now it looks like there will be a fourth movement in the Phillipines
Re NJ going red. Like NY, I wouldn't bet the farm on it but do remember that:
(1) The last Governor's races in both states were a lot closer than expected:
- NY: D 54 - R 46 - NJ: D 51 - R 48
(2) Since then, in both states, the situation has gone backwards for the Democrats in both states, particularly NY
I am going to put a small amount on both.
Comments:
> Non-presidential year turnout is lower than POTUS-year turnout, which CAN be factor > Even more of a factor, is that many voters use different criteria when voting for POTUS (particularly when one of the candidates is DJT) than in voting for Governor; this is true when both races are on the same ballot, and perhaps even truer when Govs are elected in different yeear(s) and NOT on same ballot. > Perhaps biggest factor in 2022 in NY and NJ, neither of the Democratic incumbent governors was (or is) what you'd call extraordinarily popular, they both were hauling around considerable political baggage.
Correct - Maryland is the classic example of this with Larry Hogan BUT
- NY did see several seats also shift Red suggesting a wider disenchantment - in NYC, the issue of immigration is probably the single biggest issue given the effect it is having on the city - You would expect the non-presidential year factor to work against the Rs in 2022 not for them
Hard to convert party affiliation votes directly into party votes, particularly in states like Florida where abortion is on the ballot and could be hugely impacting how independent and GOP women vote. I won’t be discouraged until I see some actual results which indicate Trump doing well.
Perhaps, but the guy posting the pictures is a well-known GOP organiser. They could be the GOTV team for the town, or the outputs of the first ‘school bus’ of the day.
Panorama doing it's job. It's what the license fee is for.
Another hatchet job on the police, from the reviews today. His family saying what a wonderful young man he was etc.
They always say that - there was also a fair bit about the bizarre culture of having an armed police and then wanting to prosecute *someone* every time they fire a gun.
Haven't been on ChatGPT for about a year, so I thought I'd see if they've improved their factual information replies.
They haven't.
My question: "How many votes did the Conservatives poll in the Huntingdon constituency at the 1983 general election?"
Answer: "In the 1983 UK general election, the Conservative Party candidate in the Huntingdon constituency, John Major, received 32,833 votes, winning with 54.2% of the vote. This was a strong performance in a safe Conservative seat, marking the beginning of a prominent political career for Major, who would later become Prime Minister."
In fact he polled 34,254 votes at that election.
Claude 3.6’s answer:
“Since this is a very specific historical electoral statistic from a single constituency, I should note that while I try to be accurate, I may hallucinate specific numbers like this. The Conservatives won Huntingdon in 1983 (with John Major as their candidate), but I don't want to state a specific vote total without being completely certain of the figure. I'd recommend checking official electoral records or the BBC's historical election database for the exact number.”
Admirable self-awareness
Stop talking about AI, you know the rules.
PB will be left sadly uneducated, but fair enough in this instance
Here’s a photo of Gyeong-ju
I love and hate Korea all at the same time. It has really annoying rules - no booze without food! - enforced by quite odd people, but at the right moment it enchants. It is, in other words, PB turned into a nation, with a similarly ageing population
Go to a bloody convenience store and buy your booze. You can probably drink it there.
And is a likely a more authentic experience than Gyeong-ju...
I quite liked the authentic inauthenticity of Gyeong-ju. Also liked the zealously manicured 1500 year old Silla kingdom tombs. Tho I reduced my stay there from two nights to one
Yes, the historic surroundings are great (though quite a few of the tombs were desecrated by less than sympathetic Japanese archaeologists during the occupation, and subsequently restored).
The National museum nearby is fantastic - did you visit ? The Silla stuff there includes those solid gold bling shoes, which would make TSE weep with envy,
Didn’t visit. Decided you can’t do it all - and I’ve now been on the road for THREE WEEKS of constant movement. And now it looks like there will be a fourth movement in the Phillipines
Wanna see the DMZ tho. Think I can cope with that
That, we didn't bother with. Maybe next time.
That surprises me, given that you are on pb and clearly interested in history and politics
One of the great faultlines of the political planet. A d even more tense and intriguing right now
Eg you used to be able to visit the joint security area but it’s now closed coz a Yankee souljah defected TO North Korea
Panorama doing it's job. It's what the license fee is for.
Another hatchet job on the police, from the reviews today. His family saying what a wonderful young man he was etc.
Presumably commissioned and mostly made on the BBC assumption that this was racist police against angelic innocent black man, with just enough awkward backpedalling to give a nod to what the truth turned out to be.
Panorama doing it's job. It's what the license fee is for.
Another hatchet job on the police, from the reviews today. His family saying what a wonderful young man he was etc.
They always say that - there was also a fair bit about the bizarre culture of having an armed police and then wanting to prosecute *someone* every time they fire a gun.
The issue was that they went for a murder charge - a manslaughter charge would have been more appropriate and would have been a more interesting question to ask and have answered.
Here in Seattle, the BIG election news this morning, is that Boeing workers have ended their strike, voting by 58% to accept the company's latest offer.
This contrasts with original 95% vote to strike, and with 68% (IIRC) against the previous offer a few weeks ago.
With respect to the OTHER election, as of last night total ballot returns for WA State = 2.8m or 56.7% of 5.0m active registered voters.
However, expect PLENTY more ballots returned today via the mail AND drop boxes today, PLUS timely ballots arriving Wed & subsequent days.
Panorama doing it's job. It's what the license fee is for.
Another hatchet job on the police, from the reviews today. His family saying what a wonderful young man he was etc.
Presumably commissioned and mostly made on the BBC assumption that this was racist police against angelic innocent black man, with just enough awkward backpedalling to give a nod to what the truth turned out to be.
Nope - included the highest ranking black former police officer in the Met saying that he believed the investigation and murder trial was political. To prevent Community Restorative Shopping.
Hard to convert party affiliation votes directly into party votes, particularly in states like Florida where abortion is on the ballot and could be hugely impacting how independent and GOP women vote. I won’t be discouraged until I see some actual results which indicate Trump doing well.
Panorama doing it's job. It's what the license fee is for.
Another hatchet job on the police, from the reviews today. His family saying what a wonderful young man he was etc.
They always say that - there was also a fair bit about the bizarre culture of having an armed police and then wanting to prosecute *someone* every time they fire a gun.
We all saw the video, and every gangster in London understands the very clear call of “Armed Police”.
“Lots of people anxious about the US election. Christians do not need to be. Presidents, empires, all come and go. God is still on His throne. All is well. And it ends well. Revelation 21:4 ‘there will no longer be…any mourning crying or pain.. the old order has passed away’”
Panorama doing it's job. It's what the license fee is for.
Another hatchet job on the police, from the reviews today. His family saying what a wonderful young man he was etc.
Presumably commissioned and mostly made on the BBC assumption that this was racist police against angelic innocent black man, with just enough awkward backpedalling to give a nod to what the truth turned out to be.
Nope - included the highest ranking black former police officer in the Met saying that he believed the investigation and murder trial was political. To prevent Community Restorative Shopping.
Panorama doing it's job. It's what the license fee is for.
Another hatchet job on the police, from the reviews today. His family saying what a wonderful young man he was etc.
They always say that - there was also a fair bit about the bizarre culture of having an armed police and then wanting to prosecute *someone* every time they fire a gun.
We all saw the video, and every gangster in London understands the very clear call of “Armed Police”.
Well Chris Kaba didn't get the message.....
It was interesting, growing up in London, as they professionalised the armed police. As opposed to the old Sweeney with short barrelled revolvers. The armed robbers (and their lawyers) were very shocked by the idea of policemen who fired single aimed shots and killed the target nearly every time (MP5 and the like are very easy to be accurate with).
Yet the betting situation has so often been 180 degrees wrong, before an election like this.
Americans are strange folk, for sure. But as friends of America we shouldn’t conclude that they are, in the majority, total idiots, without some solid evidence.
Wasn’t the Brexit betting wrong until the wee smalls?
Speaking of which, where is the final prediction of the great @Andy_JS?!
Yes. It had Remain favourite *long* after the declared results should have made Leave a near-certainty.
There was a by-election where the betting was wrong pretty much right up to the moment of declaration, IIRC, despite the ballots being boxed up and easy enough for anyone there to read.
Panorama doing it's job. It's what the license fee is for.
Another hatchet job on the police, from the reviews today. His family saying what a wonderful young man he was etc.
They always say that - there was also a fair bit about the bizarre culture of having an armed police and then wanting to prosecute *someone* every time they fire a gun.
The issue was that they went for a murder charge - a manslaughter charge would have been more appropriate and would have been a more interesting question to ask and have answered.
England & Wales is not a jurisdiction where you can easily bring a manslaughter charge in the case of a Defendant alleging self-defence. Either you accept that the use of lethal force was reasonable in the circumstances, in which case you drop charges: or you don't, in which case you bring a murder charge. The test of whether the use of lethal force was reasonable, is an objective test, not a subjective one.
Big R lead in ealry voting in Florida doesn't seem to have affected their usual on the day advantage so far.
Dems doing better on the day than in early voting on that chart in Florida, though Republicans still ahead with both
No, they're doing worse on the day - but not worse than in the past. Given GOP have an unusual early advantage piled up just matching their usual on the day strength is a big plus for them.
Of course party ID does not equal presential candidate, but it takes quite a lot of cope to believe enthusiasm to vote against Trump runs GOP then I then DEM - if there was a wall of anti Trump voters it should be driving strong Dem turnout.
Panorama doing it's job. It's what the license fee is for.
Another hatchet job on the police, from the reviews today. His family saying what a wonderful young man he was etc.
Presumably commissioned and mostly made on the BBC assumption that this was racist police against angelic innocent black man, with just enough awkward backpedalling to give a nod to what the truth turned out to be.
Nope - included the highest ranking black former police officer in the Met saying that he believed the investigation and murder trial was political. To prevent Community Restorative Shopping.
So not a hatchet job on the police?
I didn't think so. The family was gong to say what they were going to say - did anyone expect that the mother was going to say "He was a wrong, needed shooting"?
The latest betting situation – politicalbetting.com
Comments
It is past 2012 total already
Americans are strange folk, for sure. But as friends of America we shouldn’t conclude that they are, in the majority, total idiots, without some solid evidence.
Re NJ going red. Like NY, I wouldn't bet the farm on it but do remember that:
(1) The last Governor's races in both states were a lot closer than expected:
- NY: D 54 - R 46
- NJ: D 51 - R 48
(2) Since then, in both states, the situation has gone backwards for the Democrats in both states, particularly NY
I am going to put a small amount on both.
“Unless he, you know, WINS - despite all the many attempts to kill him, at least one of which came within a bloody inch of blowing out his brains”
I only repost it because some infernal fucker FLAGGED it. Why? It’s the truth. There have been several assassination attempts on Trump which a lot of people have very conveniently forgotten - with quite amazing speed - and one of them was millimetres from success
Speaking of which, where is the final prediction of the great @Andy_JS?!
Trump probably getting 80 million votes?
Guns?
Healthcare?
Giving Ukrainians weapons then not letting them use them effectively?
How much more do you need?
Last night, as I was returning to my flat in London, I was attacked and mugged by a group of individuals.
Luckily, I have no injuries and I am ok. Unfortunately, they just took my phone so I’m without one for the foreseeable future.
https://x.com/chriswebbmp/status/1853724599747330265
Two questions arise. First, a group of individuals is tautologous. Second, why is he without a phone for the foreseeable future? Have all London's electrical retailers closed for bonfire night? He could buy a phone and have the old number transferred in less than an hour if he put his mind to it, and charge the whole lot to expenses.
Long lines at 7am in the fog. Levittstown, PA
https://x.com/scottpresler/status/1853766538525860121
Not only that, some rubes will believe him.
I thought that quite good and pretty obvious so surprised I hadn't seen it before.
Thanks for the replies re my googlemaps image question. Fairly straight forward reasons for the anomaly. Looked really weird though to see 2 things in a picture that could not both be there at the same time.
Most swing state polls have Arizona, Georgia and NC going Trump and Nevada leaning that way but with Harris with the edge in Michigan, Wisconsin, NE02 and by a hair in Pennsylvania.
So I would say it is now more like a 40% change not 1%
https://tippinsights.com/tipp-tracking-day-23-trump-holds-slim-0-3-point-lead-over-harris-in-final-poll/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
Guam Results 50% Reporting
🔵 Harris 49% (+3)
🔴 Trump 46%
2020 Results:
🔵 Biden 55% (+14)
🔴 Trump 41%
With that you can bring up a timeline and usually go back to the early 2000s.
I think Google Maps just uses the latest imagery.
Yes, the historic surroundings are great (though quite a few of the tombs were desecrated by less than sympathetic Japanese archaeologists during the occupation, and subsequently restored).
The National museum nearby is fantastic - did you visit ?
The Silla stuff there includes those solid gold bling shoes, which would make TSE weep with envy,
Hands up who predicted that headline in Nov 2020.
Wanna see the DMZ tho. Think I can cope with that
Big R lead in ealry voting in Florida doesn't seem to have affected their usual on the day advantage so far.
Panorama doing it's job. It's what the license fee is for.
> Non-presidential year turnout is lower than POTUS-year turnout, which CAN be factor
> Even more of a factor, is that many voters use different criteria when voting for POTUS (particularly when one of the candidates is DJT) than in voting for Governor; this is true when both races are on the same ballot, and perhaps even truer when Govs are elected in different yeear(s) and NOT on same ballot.
> Perhaps biggest factor in 2022 in NY and NJ, neither of the Democratic incumbent governors was (or is) what you'd call extraordinarily popular, they both were hauling around considerable political baggage.
As per @Rcs1000
Maybe next time.
- NY did see several seats also shift Red suggesting a wider disenchantment
- in NYC, the issue of immigration is probably the single biggest issue given the effect it is having on the city
- You would expect the non-presidential year factor to work against the Rs in 2022 not for them
As said, I do not expect it but...
One of the great faultlines of the political planet. A d even more tense and intriguing right now
Eg you used to be able to visit the joint security area but it’s now closed coz a Yankee souljah defected TO North Korea
I’m keen to see it. The tours get rave reviews
Otherwise, I will go Community Restorative Shopping for a big TV.
This contrasts with original 95% vote to strike, and with 68% (IIRC) against the previous offer a few weeks ago.
With respect to the OTHER election, as of last night total ballot returns for WA State = 2.8m or 56.7% of 5.0m active registered voters.
However, expect PLENTY more ballots returned today via the mail AND drop boxes today, PLUS timely ballots arriving Wed & subsequent days.
https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/data-research/election-data-and-maps/ballot-return-statistics
That said, I am bullish on her chances in GA and NC too.
People here would rightly be very pissed off waiting 10 minutes.
Mind you, it's also conditioning. People here tolerate, if not happily, waiting two years for an operation or five years for a court case.
“Lots of people anxious about the US election. Christians do not need to be. Presidents, empires, all come and go. God is still on His throne. All is well. And it ends well. Revelation 21:4 ‘there will no longer be…any mourning crying or pain.. the old order has passed away’”
Actually quite wise
https://x.com/timfarron/status/1853727131764728182?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
It was interesting, growing up in London, as they professionalised the armed police. As opposed to the old Sweeney with short barrelled revolvers. The armed robbers (and their lawyers) were very shocked by the idea of policemen who fired single aimed shots and killed the target nearly every time (MP5 and the like are very easy to be accurate with).
There was a by-election where the betting was wrong pretty much right up to the moment of declaration, IIRC, despite the ballots being boxed up and easy enough for anyone there to read.
Of course party ID does not equal presential candidate, but it takes quite a lot of cope to believe enthusiasm to vote against Trump runs GOP then I then DEM - if there was a wall of anti Trump voters it should be driving strong Dem turnout.
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