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Voting has now closed and can Bobby J sink any lower? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,137
edited October 31 in General
imageVoting has now closed and can Bobby J sink any lower? – politicalbetting.com

Voting closed at 5pm in the race to succeed Rishi Sunak and Robert Jenrick’s chances are near rock bottom (but he has been lower before) but I do think he remains a smidgen of value given the last YouGov poll had him losing to Badenoch by a mere 4%.

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Comments

  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,859
    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it
  • Old JD Vance Halloween Jokes Home

    Q: What do hillbillies do for Halloween?

    A: Pump kin.
  • FPT
    Sandpit said:

    A group representing 1,400 private schools will press ahead with plans for a legal challenge against the government’s introduction of VAT from January, the BBC can reveal.

    In a board meeting on Thursday, the Independent Schools Council (ISC), the body which includes most independent schools in the UK, voted to pave the way for legal action.

    Lord David Pannick KC, one of the country’s leading barristers in cases relating to government decisions, is to lead the challenge which will be brought on behalf of parents, including those with children with special educational needs and disabilities (Send).

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98d3xr0290o

    Gets popcorn, at the thought of seeing the equalities and human rights legislation turned on the party who previously said it didn’t go far enough.
    Lawyers are proving themselves to be utterly awesome once more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,713

    Old JD Vance Halloween Jokes Home

    Q: What do hillbillies do for Halloween?

    A: Pump kin.

    That's couched rather revoltingly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,131
    Oh, Robert Jenrick.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,424
    #TeamKemi
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,983
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Democrats remain more enthusiastic than Republican this election

    Democrats also have the highest level of enthusiasm in more than 24 years, according to Gallup..

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1852021255052103939

    If that's true, then I think Harris will win.

    That's back up to around Obama numbers.

    Gargantuan....

    She's a strong candidate, I think. It's a pity she had to start from behind the eight ball.
    Don't understand that, she got 2% in the 2020 primary and has achieved absolutely nothing as VP. Her position and voting etc record makes Bernie Sanders look like Farage.
    She has 'not Trump' going for her. And that's about it.
    Yes, it’s an unpopular view but she’s absolutely the worst presidential candidate of all time. She has nothing in her favour except ‘not Trump’.
    I don't think the polling backs that up: she's significantly better rated by pollsters than Hillary Clinton, and Democrats are significantly more enthused about voting for her than they were for Clinton.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Democrats remain more enthusiastic than Republican this election

    Democrats also have the highest level of enthusiasm in more than 24 years, according to Gallup..

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1852021255052103939

    If that's true, then I think Harris will win.

    That's back up to around Obama numbers.

    Gargantuan....

    She's a strong candidate, I think. It's a pity she had to start from behind the eight ball.
    Don't understand that, she got 2% in the 2020 primary and has achieved absolutely nothing as VP. Her position and voting etc record makes Bernie Sanders look like Farage.
    She has 'not Trump' going for her. And that's about it.
    Yes, it’s an unpopular view but she’s absolutely the worst presidential candidate of all time. She has nothing in her favour except ‘not Trump’.
    Worst of all time even as hyperbole is pretty ridiculous. I really don't get it at all.

    Is she amazing? Probably not, though just referring to past primaries doesn't mean anything, Biden went through two and still ended up winning a third and the presidency. Record as VP? Not much to go on.

    The campaign itself? Hard to judge these things until we see the outcomes. She's not done much open questioning, but had plenty of the big crowd events Americans love. She's reached out to disaffected Republicans and taken a tougher stance on the border etc to serk to address concerns. And the end result is it's sadly still 50/50, but hardly disastrous then.

    So is it enough? Probably not, and that will be it's own statement. But has she been horrendous? No.

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Democrats remain more enthusiastic than Republican this election

    Democrats also have the highest level of enthusiasm in more than 24 years, according to Gallup..

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1852021255052103939

    If that's true, then I think Harris will win.

    That's back up to around Obama numbers.

    Gargantuan....

    She's a strong candidate, I think. It's a pity she had to start from behind the eight ball.
    Don't understand that, she got 2% in the 2020 primary and has achieved absolutely nothing as VP. Her position and voting etc record makes Bernie Sanders look like Farage.
    She has 'not Trump' going for her. And that's about it.
    As a matter of interest, what was the last VP you would say achieved something? It's the sort of role where it's hard to be seen to 'achieve' anything. Yet a fair few VPs end up becoming president (assassinations excepted).
    Agreed, I always thought the VPs job was a "spare". I didn't think they actually did or were responsible for anything.
    VP is the Speaker of the Senate.
    Isn't that a sinecure?
    And a tie breaker.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    Imo
    We need to decide the core priorities of the state, and focus on doing those and providing for those better. Probably moving to an insurance based NHS model along the lines of the continent
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    I think Sunak was closer to Truss than predicted last time?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    A group representing 1,400 private schools will press ahead with plans for a legal challenge against the government’s introduction of VAT from January, the BBC can reveal.

    In a board meeting on Thursday, the Independent Schools Council (ISC), the body which includes most independent schools in the UK, voted to pave the way for legal action.

    Lord David Pannick KC, one of the country’s leading barristers in cases relating to government decisions, is to lead the challenge which will be brought on behalf of parents, including those with children with special educational needs and disabilities (Send).

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98d3xr0290o

    Gets popcorn, at the thought of seeing the equalities and human rights legislation turned on the party who previously said it didn’t go far enough.
    Lawyers are proving themselves to be utterly awesome once more.
    When was the first time?
  • kle4 said:

    I think Sunak was closer to Truss than predicted last time?

    Yes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    We are part of the problem, we punish honesty and difficult decisions.

    You need very strong leaders to overcome that and bring the public with them. Our leaders are weak, often running scared even with big majorities.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,653
    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    Arguably we have that now, with managerialist technocrats Starmer and Reeves running the ship, and they've certainly been laying on the gloomstering and doomstering.

    The idea politicians can't be honest comes from 2017 but imo blaming the social care manifesto completely misreads that election. Lynton Crosby ran a dire campaign apparently designed for Boris, but most important were the two terrorist outrages against a backdrop of massive police cuts. Law and order scuppered the law and order party.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,268
    Q: we remember the political bets when the favourite lost, and often state that if a 12% chance comes good that the markets were wrong.

    But in general on the major political markets does the 70% chance comes through 70% of the time, the 20% chance 20% of the time etc.?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,131
    FPT - Rachel Reeves has something personal against private schools.

    She's on the record as favouring the abolition of all private schools and all grammar schools. And she's tone-deaf to why either are beneficial. She's had multiple appeals over recent months about the impact rushing a major tax change in the middle of an academic year will have on pupils and staff, who still don't know what the legislation will say and have barely a few weeks to plan for it, and she's ignored them all. Education is a public good, that's why it's never been taxed, and she's now about to do so because she has an axe to grind.

    All because a couple of pompous public school boys ribbed her over her background when she was playing chess 30 years ago and she's had a chip on her shoulder ever since.

    It tells you a lot about someone who's that determined and bloody-minded about revenge: none of it good.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,131
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Democrats remain more enthusiastic than Republican this election

    Democrats also have the highest level of enthusiasm in more than 24 years, according to Gallup..

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1852021255052103939

    If that's true, then I think Harris will win.

    That's back up to around Obama numbers.

    Gargantuan....

    She's a strong candidate, I think. It's a pity she had to start from behind the eight ball.
    Don't understand that, she got 2% in the 2020 primary and has achieved absolutely nothing as VP. Her position and voting etc record makes Bernie Sanders look like Farage.
    She has 'not Trump' going for her. And that's about it.
    Yes, it’s an unpopular view but she’s absolutely the worst presidential candidate of all time. She has nothing in her favour except ‘not Trump’.
    I don't think the polling backs that up: she's significantly better rated by pollsters than Hillary Clinton, and Democrats are significantly more enthused about voting for her than they were for Clinton.
    Yes, I agree: Hillary Clinton was a worse candidate.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    The NHS money pit continues. Despite the money chucked at the things it’s worse than ever.

    Any chance someone will stop doing the same old thing again and again, and perhaps consider what actually works elsewhere?
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,751
    I don`t know why Jenrick is such long odds unless the bookies have inside knowledge.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,131

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    The NHS money pit continues. Despite the money chucked at the things it’s worse than ever.

    Any chance someone will stop doing the same old thing again and again, and perhaps consider what actually works elsewhere?
    £200bn a year budget. TWO HUNDRED BILLION A YEAR.

    And, for what??
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,702
    edited October 31

    Old JD Vance Halloween Jokes Home

    Q: What do hillbillies do for Halloween?

    A: Pump kin.

    Are you auditioning for warm-up comic for Trump rallies as I believe there might be an opening going.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,131
    Anyone obese or with the fatty type of diabetes can pay a person contribution themselves for a start.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    The NHS money pit continues. Despite the money chucked at the things it’s worse than ever.

    Any chance someone will stop doing the same old thing again and again, and perhaps consider what actually works elsewhere?
    The only options are the NHS or America, everyone knows that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,131
    SMukesh said:

    I don`t know why Jenrick is such long odds unless the bookies have inside knowledge.

    At this stage, it will be very clear.

    I think Jenrick will still pip 40% of the members vote but it's pretty clear Kemi has won this.

    The 1.15 is free money
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,886
    edited October 31
    Pro_Rata said:

    Q: we remember the political bets when the favourite lost, and often state that if a 12% chance comes good that the markets were wrong.

    But in general on the major political markets does the 70% chance comes through 70% of the time, the 20% chance 20% of the time etc.?

    I know the answer to this one! The process you describe is called "calibration" and is the way that bookmakers and data scientists assess their probabilistic predictions against the outcomes (I disagree, and so does Gardner and Tetlock who prefer the Brier score). The British GE market is reasonably well calibrated for the Labour and Conservative parties, but is not well calibrated for the Liberals, whose odds on winning/most seats are skewed.

    This anecdote would be really good if I knew how well the POTUS market was calibrated, now wouldn't it... :(
  • Old JD Vance Halloween Jokes Home

    Q: What do hillbillies do for Halloween?

    A: Pump kin.

    Are you auditioning for warm-up comic for Trump rallies as I believe there might be an opening going.
    I have often been compared to Jimmy Carr.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    Old JD Vance Halloween Jokes Home

    Q: What do hillbillies do for Halloween?

    A: Pump kin.

    Are you auditioning for warm-up comic for Trump rallies as I believe there might be an opening going.
    I have often been compared to Jimmy Carr.
    by the fact you're not funny?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    I hold no special animus towards Jenrick nor positivity towards Badenoch, but she comes across as having more personality, which can work for and against a candidate, and that might be what people are looking for, and willing to throw the dice.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,268

    FPT - Rachel Reeves has something personal against private schools.

    She's on the record as favouring the abolition of all private schools and all grammar schools. And she's tone-deaf to why either are beneficial. She's had multiple appeals over recent months about the impact rushing a major tax change in the middle of an academic year will have on pupils and staff, who still don't know what the legislation will say and have barely a few weeks to plan for it, and she's ignored them all. Education is a public good, that's why it's never been taxed, and she's now about to do so because she has an axe to grind.

    All because a couple of pompous public school boys ribbed her over her background when she was playing chess 30 years ago and she's had a chip on her shoulder ever since.

    It tells you a lot about someone who's that determined and bloody-minded about revenge: none of it good.

    TBF, Kemi has a much bigger chip on her shoulder about her treatment when young. And there was clearly something with Liz Truss.

    And you with woke and this has a pretty personal element, though you're not a leading politician.

    I've not seen Reeves reference this stuff, do you have sources?

    I have sympathy with both Kemi's sorry and encountering public school oiks (who have also played a major role in the failure of the nation in the last 15 years), but public policy against such perceived issues should be on
    some kind of more objective footing.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,886
    My image of todayness

    The Supreme Leader
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,648
    edited October 31

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    The NHS money pit continues. Despite the money chucked at the things it’s worse than ever.

    Any chance someone will stop doing the same old thing again and again, and perhaps consider what actually works elsewhere?
    £200bn a year budget. TWO HUNDRED BILLION A YEAR.

    And, for what??
    Do you think about your comments or just reflexively beat your keyboard at every triggering event?

    As a country we spent less than comparable nations. So yes £200 billion.


    'This analysis examines how health care spending in the UK compares with EU countries in the decade preceding the pandemic. Taking a longer term view enables us to see how trends in spending may have impacted health care resilience today.

    Average day-to-day health spending in the UK between 2010 and 2019 was £3,005 per person – 18% below the EU14 average of £3,655.

    If UK spending per person had matched the EU14 average, then the UK would have spent an average of £227bn a year on health between 2010 and 2019 – £40bn higher than actual average annual spending during this period (£187bn).

    Matching spending per head to France or Germany would have led to an additional £40bn and £73bn (21% to 39% increase respectively) of total health spending each year in the UK.

    Over the past decade, the UK had a lower level of capital investment in health care compared with the EU14 countries for which data are available. Between 2010 and 2019, average health capital investment in the UK was £5.8bn a year. If the UK had matched other EU14 countries’ average investment in health capital (as a share of GDP), the UK would have invested £33bn more between 2010 and 2019 (around 55% higher than actual investment during that period).'

    https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/how-does-uk-health-spending-compare-across-europe-over-the-past-decade
  • spudgfsh said:

    Old JD Vance Halloween Jokes Home

    Q: What do hillbillies do for Halloween?

    A: Pump kin.

    Are you auditioning for warm-up comic for Trump rallies as I believe there might be an opening going.
    I have often been compared to Jimmy Carr.
    by the fact you're not funny?
    I am very funny, like Jimmy Carr.

    Also my accent has been compared to 'If Jimmy Carr* was from Yorkshire.'

    *Also Hugh Grant.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,886
    Do we have any inklings, soundings or just gossip on who will be victorious? The obvious winner Kemi Badenoch or the grovelling cur Jenrick? Being even handed, of course :)
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,859

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    Arguably we have that now, with managerialist technocrats Starmer and Reeves running the ship, and they've certainly been laying on the gloomstering and doomstering.

    The idea politicians can't be honest comes from 2017 but imo blaming the social care manifesto completely misreads that election. Lynton Crosby ran a dire campaign apparently designed for Boris, but most important were the two terrorist outrages against a backdrop of massive police cuts. Law and order scuppered the law and order party.
    I don't think any party can be honest with what needs to be done and still get elected frankly

    the corollary to that is therefore democracy can no longer work as we can't fix the country while using it. I have an absolute preference for democracy however if it can't fix our current situation maybe for a time we need to fall back on something else. Just like in ww2, I don't think anyone wanted rationing but we needed to do it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,998
    edited October 31
    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    I don't think to say we are a "mess" that can be "fixed" by politicians is the right framing. But we do have problems and I agree that our politics penalises being honest about what is and isn't realistic for governments to do. This is mainly the fault of the electorate.

    Eg this idea that the government (Tory or Labour) can enact policies to transform our growth prospects relative to our peers. That's delusional. I'd like politicians to stop promising it. Banning them from even talking about growth would be ideal tbh.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,713
    spudgfsh said:

    Old JD Vance Halloween Jokes Home

    Q: What do hillbillies do for Halloween?

    A: Pump kin.

    Are you auditioning for warm-up comic for Trump rallies as I believe there might be an opening going.
    I have often been compared to Jimmy Carr.
    by the fact you're not funny?
    That's unfair.
    TSE can be amusing.

    I've no idea why anyone would compare him to Jimmy C.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    SMukesh said:

    I don`t know why Jenrick is such long odds unless the bookies have inside knowledge.

    They've met him?
    He was on the telly at lunchtime and I had to turn it off. The guy is simply odious. The sort of bloke you'd avoid in an otherwise empty pub.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,710
    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    It seems unlikely. So far as I can see all of the parties are simply on the wrong track - Reform/Tories are off in some odd authoritarian type tailspin, and the rest are simply spend, spend, spend.

    Actual policies that might go some way to fixing things seem to me to be only likely if from nowhere a bit of a different political movement emerges. Somewhere in the Traditional Liberal/Traditional Tory space would do very nicely. I can't really think of a single politician though that is somehow going to leap to the challenge.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,859
    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    I don't think to say we are a "mess" that can be "fixed" by politicians is the right framing. But we do have problems and I agree that our politics penalises being honest about what is and isn't realistic for governments to do.

    Eg this idea they can enact policies to transform our growth prospects relative to our peers. That's delusional. I'd like politicians to stop promising it. Banned from even talking about growth would be ideal tbh.
    Which bit are you disagreeing with?

    a) The country is in a mess
    b) The country can't be fixed by parties that get elected for a five year term

    I believe both a and b to be true
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    spudgfsh said:

    Old JD Vance Halloween Jokes Home

    Q: What do hillbillies do for Halloween?

    A: Pump kin.

    Are you auditioning for warm-up comic for Trump rallies as I believe there might be an opening going.
    I have often been compared to Jimmy Carr.
    by the fact you're not funny?
    I am very funny, like Jimmy Carr.

    Also my accent has been compared to 'If Jimmy Carr* was from Yorkshire.'

    *Also Hugh Grant.
    I'll have to disagree that Jimmy Carr is funny.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,886
    Nigelb said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Old JD Vance Halloween Jokes Home

    Q: What do hillbillies do for Halloween?

    A: Pump kin.

    Are you auditioning for warm-up comic for Trump rallies as I believe there might be an opening going.
    I have often been compared to Jimmy Carr.
    by the fact you're not funny?
    That's unfair.
    TSE can be amusing.

    I've no idea why anyone would compare him to Jimmy C.
    "Jimmy Carr is not as funny as our wonderful and article-publishing TSE" is a comparison.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    SMukesh said:

    I don`t know why Jenrick is such long odds unless the bookies have inside knowledge.

    They've met him?
    He was on the telly at lunchtime and I had to turn it off. The guy is simply odious. The sort of bloke you'd avoid in an otherwise empty pub.
    I'd certainly leave him till last and mutter in a list of 'who's going to be there?'
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,312
    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    I honestly don't think we're in much more of a 'mess' than we have in other periods of our history. It's just that our bubbles are much wider, and we get to hear about issues that are not particularly issues for us directly. Life was really shite fifty or a hundred years ago; it was just that many of us expected it to be shite.

    When she was younger, a female relative had a close shave with an attacker on the street. She did not report it to the police, and told only her fellow nurses. Nowadays, it might be local or national headlines.

    Expectations of behaviour are higher, and the limits of tolerable behaviour much narrower. and stepping outside both of those can become much more widely known than was possible decades ago.

    I'd argue that rather than making the country a 'mess', it makes us stronger.
  • Not sure what is funnier, that the boost to GDP from the budget finally reaches the touted 1.4% figure in....2073/74...or that the OBR forecast is believed to be remotely accurate up to that date.

    https://x.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1852037042781249797
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,403
    Trump vows to “protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left”.

    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1852033622494105832
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,751

    SMukesh said:

    I don`t know why Jenrick is such long odds unless the bookies have inside knowledge.

    At this stage, it will be very clear.

    I think Jenrick will still pip 40% of the members vote but it's pretty clear Kemi has won this.

    The 1.15 is free money
    He has kept going on TV until the end. He must think he has a chance. Sunak stopped bothering weeks earlier in 2022.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,312

    Trump vows to “protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left”.

    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1852033622494105832

    Will he protect them against the Christian fundamentalists who are his core vote?



    No.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,517

    SMukesh said:

    I don`t know why Jenrick is such long odds unless the bookies have inside knowledge.

    They've met him?
    He was on the telly at lunchtime and I had to turn it off. The guy is simply odious. The sort of bloke you'd avoid in an otherwise empty pub.
    The fake accent is one of the more annoying aspects.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,859

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    I honestly don't think we're in much more of a 'mess' than we have in other periods of our history. It's just that our bubbles are much wider, and we get to hear about issues that are not particularly issues for us directly. Life was really shite fifty or a hundred years ago; it was just that many of us expected it to be shite.

    When she was younger, a female relative had a close shave with an attacker on the street. She did not report it to the police, and told only her fellow nurses. Nowadays, it might be local or national headlines.

    Expectations of behaviour are higher, and the limits of tolerable behaviour much narrower. and stepping outside both of those can become much more widely known than was possible decades ago.

    I'd argue that rather than making the country a 'mess', it makes us stronger.
    Back then yes that behaviour was treated less seriously and frankly still is. However back then at least police for burglary for instance was a crime worth investigating.

    However I wasn't just talking about daily services I was referring to the ever expanding bill we are paying for less and less, lots of causes none of which can be addressed by a party that actually wants to be elected
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,998

    Trump vows to “protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left”.

    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1852033622494105832

    Likes that "protect" word, doesn't he.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,727
    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    I don't think to say we are a "mess" that can be "fixed" by politicians is the right framing. But we do have problems and I agree that our politics penalises being honest about what is and isn't realistic for governments to do.

    Eg this idea they can enact policies to transform our growth prospects relative to our peers. That's delusional. I'd like politicians to stop promising it. Banned from even talking about growth would be ideal tbh.
    Which bit are you disagreeing with?

    a) The country is in a mess
    b) The country can't be fixed by parties that get elected for a five year term

    I believe both a and b to be true
    Vote Malmesbury. I will protect you from Democracy.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,257
    A rollercoaster week so far for Trump and Harris .

    It started off badly for Trump with the hate rally and joke gate , Biden then rode in to help him with his garbage gaffe and now the Trump campaign is trying to distance itself from the House Speaker Mike Johnson’s comments on Obamacare .

    Trump then decides to crash and burn even more with women by telling them he’ll protect them whether they like it or not .
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    Anyone who feels sorry for Jeremy Clarkson and his Brexiteer farmers hoot your horns.......
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,905

    Trump vows to “protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left”.

    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1852033622494105832

    Why shouldn't the racist protect Hindu Americans.
    After all the rapist is going to protect American women.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Trump vows to “protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left”.

    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1852033622494105832

    Do you ever stop arse-licking Trump? Give it a rest.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,287
    edited October 31
    So I think of the card carrying pb blue lovelies, @Casino_Royale @TSE @MaxPB and yours truly have voted for Kemi while @HYUFD and @Mortimer backed Jenrick. And @MarqueeMark 'abstained'. Have I missed anyone?

    The result will be announced at 11.00 am on Saturday.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,517


    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz

    I spoke with @SaraSidnerCNN this morning about why I think Trump currently has a slight advantage in momentum, but also how the election could go either way next Tuesday.

    Not a bold stance, I know – but it is the reality.

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,727

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    The NHS money pit continues. Despite the money chucked at the things it’s worse than ever.

    Any chance someone will stop doing the same old thing again and again, and perhaps consider what actually works elsewhere?
    £200bn a year budget. TWO HUNDRED BILLION A YEAR.

    And, for what??
    Do you think about your comments or just reflexively beat your keyboard at every triggering event?

    As a country we spent less than comparable nations. So yes £200 billion.


    'This analysis examines how health care spending in the UK compares with EU countries in the decade preceding the pandemic. Taking a longer term view enables us to see how trends in spending may have impacted health care resilience today.

    Average day-to-day health spending in the UK between 2010 and 2019 was £3,005 per person – 18% below the EU14 average of £3,655.

    If UK spending per person had matched the EU14 average, then the UK would have spent an average of £227bn a year on health between 2010 and 2019 – £40bn higher than actual average annual spending during this period (£187bn).

    Matching spending per head to France or Germany would have led to an additional £40bn and £73bn (21% to 39% increase respectively) of total health spending each year in the UK.

    Over the past decade, the UK had a lower level of capital investment in health care compared with the EU14 countries for which data are available. Between 2010 and 2019, average health capital investment in the UK was £5.8bn a year. If the UK had matched other EU14 countries’ average investment in health capital (as a share of GDP), the UK would have invested £33bn more between 2010 and 2019 (around 55% higher than actual investment during that period).'

    https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/how-does-uk-health-spending-compare-across-europe-over-the-past-decade
    All spending as “investment”. Ah yes
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,517
    Five days!!!!
  • JohnO said:

    So I think of the card carrying pb blue lovelies, @Casino_Royale @TSE @MaxPB and yours truly have voted for Kemi while @HYUFD and @Mortimer backed Jenrick. And @MarqueeMark 'abstained'. Have I missed anyone?

    @Scrapheap_as_was also followed us in backing Kemi over Jenrick.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 778
    Pro_Rata said:

    Q: we remember the political bets when the favourite lost, and often state that if a 12% chance comes good that the markets were wrong.

    But in general on the major political markets does the 70% chance comes through 70% of the time, the 20% chance 20% of the time etc.?

    Markets like football pretty much do. But political markets? No. They panic and fly around the place like headless chickens. This market is an example of that. It's been all over the place. And now the publicly available evidence, anyway, suggests Jenrick is value and I think most of us here who actually bet agree with this (exception of @viewcode ). I see no reason to think he should be longer priced than 3/1 and I'd price him more like 2/1 myself.

    Unfortunately with rare exceptions like the presidential markets they're just not big enough that (imo) you could do this for a living, or certainly not my trading style. But it's nice to have a hobby that makes money.
  • Roger said:

    Anyone who feels sorry for Jeremy Clarkson and his Brexiteer farmers hoot your horns.......


    Going to be shocked when you find your Clarkson did not support Brexit.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,117

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    The NHS money pit continues. Despite the money chucked at the things it’s worse than ever.

    Any chance someone will stop doing the same old thing again and again, and perhaps consider what actually works elsewhere?
    £200bn a year budget. TWO HUNDRED BILLION A YEAR.

    And, for what??
    Do you think about your comments or just reflexively beat your keyboard at every triggering event?

    As a country we spent less than comparable nations. So yes £200 billion.


    'This analysis examines how health care spending in the UK compares with EU countries in the decade preceding the pandemic. Taking a longer term view enables us to see how trends in spending may have impacted health care resilience today.

    Average day-to-day health spending in the UK between 2010 and 2019 was £3,005 per person – 18% below the EU14 average of £3,655.

    If UK spending per person had matched the EU14 average, then the UK would have spent an average of £227bn a year on health between 2010 and 2019 – £40bn higher than actual average annual spending during this period (£187bn).

    Matching spending per head to France or Germany would have led to an additional £40bn and £73bn (21% to 39% increase respectively) of total health spending each year in the UK.

    Over the past decade, the UK had a lower level of capital investment in health care compared with the EU14 countries for which data are available. Between 2010 and 2019, average health capital investment in the UK was £5.8bn a year. If the UK had matched other EU14 countries’ average investment in health capital (as a share of GDP), the UK would have invested £33bn more between 2010 and 2019 (around 55% higher than actual investment during that period).'

    https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/how-does-uk-health-spending-compare-across-europe-over-the-past-decade
    All spending as “investment”. Ah yes
    I'm not getting that from the quotes. There's total spending and capital investment is a subset of that.

    I thought the "too many people, not enough machines" issue was broadly accepted.
  • JohnO said:

    So I think of the card carrying pb blue lovelies, @Casino_Royale @TSE @MaxPB and yours truly have voted for Kemi while @HYUFD and @Mortimer backed Jenrick. And @MarqueeMark 'abstained'. Have I missed anyone?

    The result will be announced at 11.00 am on Saturday.

    I would have been for Kemi but not a member this time
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,517

    JohnO said:

    So I think of the card carrying pb blue lovelies, @Casino_Royale @TSE @MaxPB and yours truly have voted for Kemi while @HYUFD and @Mortimer backed Jenrick. And @MarqueeMark 'abstained'. Have I missed anyone?

    The result will be announced at 11.00 am on Saturday.

    I would have been for Kemi but not a member this time
    My wallet is voting for Kemi.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,853
    edited October 31

    Trump vows to “protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left”.

    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1852033622494105832

    Do you ever stop arse-licking Trump? Give it a rest.
    I really cannot think of a worse outcome than a Trump victory but others are entitled to their view and if it upsets you just pass over the post
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,998
    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    I don't think to say we are a "mess" that can be "fixed" by politicians is the right framing. But we do have problems and I agree that our politics penalises being honest about what is and isn't realistic for governments to do.

    Eg this idea they can enact policies to transform our growth prospects relative to our peers. That's delusional. I'd like politicians to stop promising it. Banned from even talking about growth would be ideal tbh.
    Which bit are you disagreeing with?

    a) The country is in a mess
    b) The country can't be fixed by parties that get elected for a five year term

    I believe both a and b to be true
    I'm saying it can't be fixed period. It's not that kind of thing. But, yes, our politics could be more honest and if it were that would help. But there's that electorate in the way. They don't reward honesty.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,117
    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    I don't think to say we are a "mess" that can be "fixed" by politicians is the right framing. But we do have problems and I agree that our politics penalises being honest about what is and isn't realistic for governments to do.

    Eg this idea they can enact policies to transform our growth prospects relative to our peers. That's delusional. I'd like politicians to stop promising it. Banned from even talking about growth would be ideal tbh.
    Which bit are you disagreeing with?

    a) The country is in a mess
    b) The country can't be fixed by parties that get elected for a five year term

    I believe both a and b to be true
    Trouble is, most of the alternatives to democracy that humanity has tried end up worse.

    A possible suggestion. Mutually agreed governments of occupation. So (say) we elect the German government, they elect the French, the French elect ours. Stops voters voting themselves pay rises but gives a guardrail against dictators going sour.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited October 31

    SMukesh said:

    I don`t know why Jenrick is such long odds unless the bookies have inside knowledge.

    They've met him?
    He was on the telly at lunchtime and I had to turn it off. The guy is simply odious. The sort of bloke you'd avoid in an otherwise empty pub.
    The fake accent is one of the more annoying aspects.
    Kemi is crap and cowardly and weird but far less annoying than JENRICK. Given we'd have to put up with him on the telly for the next five two years, all those PB Tories who have cast their votes for Kemi are doing a public service.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,203
    Come on Kemi!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,727
    edited October 31

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    The NHS money pit continues. Despite the money chucked at the things it’s worse than ever.

    Any chance someone will stop doing the same old thing again and again, and perhaps consider what actually works elsewhere?
    £200bn a year budget. TWO HUNDRED BILLION A YEAR.

    And, for what??
    Do you think about your comments or just reflexively beat your keyboard at every triggering event?

    As a country we spent less than comparable nations. So yes £200 billion.


    'This analysis examines how health care spending in the UK compares with EU countries in the decade preceding the pandemic. Taking a longer term view enables us to see how trends in spending may have impacted health care resilience today.

    Average day-to-day health spending in the UK between 2010 and 2019 was £3,005 per person – 18% below the EU14 average of £3,655.

    If UK spending per person had matched the EU14 average, then the UK would have spent an average of £227bn a year on health between 2010 and 2019 – £40bn higher than actual average annual spending during this period (£187bn).

    Matching spending per head to France or Germany would have led to an additional £40bn and £73bn (21% to 39% increase respectively) of total health spending each year in the UK.

    Over the past decade, the UK had a lower level of capital investment in health care compared with the EU14 countries for which data are available. Between 2010 and 2019, average health capital investment in the UK was £5.8bn a year. If the UK had matched other EU14 countries’ average investment in health capital (as a share of GDP), the UK would have invested £33bn more between 2010 and 2019 (around 55% higher than actual investment during that period).'

    https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/how-does-uk-health-spending-compare-across-europe-over-the-past-decade
    All spending as “investment”. Ah yes
    I'm not getting that from the quotes. There's total spending and capital investment is a subset of that.

    I thought the "too many people, not enough machines" issue was broadly accepted.
    More an imbalance of the staff ratios (see the classic plate washer to plate dryer ratio), stupid management practices from the 19th Cent. (I've actually seen a bloke with clipboard doing time-and-motion on the doctors in A&E!!!!), and an absence of clear lines of responsibility for patients.

    So you have lots of people milling around, trying to do.... stuff.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,859
    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    I don't think to say we are a "mess" that can be "fixed" by politicians is the right framing. But we do have problems and I agree that our politics penalises being honest about what is and isn't realistic for governments to do.

    Eg this idea they can enact policies to transform our growth prospects relative to our peers. That's delusional. I'd like politicians to stop promising it. Banned from even talking about growth would be ideal tbh.
    Which bit are you disagreeing with?

    a) The country is in a mess
    b) The country can't be fixed by parties that get elected for a five year term

    I believe both a and b to be true
    I'm saying it can't be fixed period. It's not that kind of thing. But, yes, our politics could be more honest and if it were that would help. But there's that electorate in the way. They don't reward honesty.
    So you are saying the same...it can't be fixed by our current democratic set up....why are you disagreeing then?
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 778

    SMukesh said:

    I don`t know why Jenrick is such long odds unless the bookies have inside knowledge.

    At this stage, it will be very clear.

    I think Jenrick will still pip 40% of the members vote but it's pretty clear Kemi has won this.

    The 1.15 is free money
    How is it clear? Genuine question.

    Anecdotally she seems to have won on PB, but lost amongst members I know, some of whom really "ought" to have been voting for her.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,212

    JohnO said:

    So I think of the card carrying pb blue lovelies, @Casino_Royale @TSE @MaxPB and yours truly have voted for Kemi while @HYUFD and @Mortimer backed Jenrick. And @MarqueeMark 'abstained'. Have I missed anyone?

    The result will be announced at 11.00 am on Saturday.

    I would have been for Kemi but not a member this time
    Ditto. I was last a member in 2020, after having voted for Hunt, and campaigned against Corbyn.

    But, I’ll likely rejoin if Kemi wins.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,886

    Pro_Rata said:

    Q: we remember the political bets when the favourite lost, and often state that if a 12% chance comes good that the markets were wrong.

    But in general on the major political markets does the 70% chance comes through 70% of the time, the 20% chance 20% of the time etc.?

    Markets like football pretty much do. But political markets? No. They panic and fly around the place like headless chickens. This market is an example of that. It's been all over the place. And now the publicly available evidence, anyway, suggests Jenrick is value and I think most of us here who actually bet agree with this (exception of @viewcode ). I see no reason to think he should be longer priced than 3/1 and I'd price him more like 2/1 myself.

    Unfortunately with rare exceptions like the presidential markets they're just not big enough that (imo) you could do this for a living, or certainly not my trading style. But it's nice to have a hobby that makes money.
    Famously I try not to bet on value per se: I try to pick bets which I think will win and give a good return (hence my focus on Nevada). So though I acknowledge that Jenrick may be mispriced, I think that he will lose and will not bet on him except as a hedge. I am not anticipating doing that if that helps.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,905
    kle4 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    We are part of the problem, we punish honesty and difficult decisions.

    You need very strong leaders to overcome that and bring the public with them. Our leaders are weak, often running scared even with big majorities.
    A major problem is that parties have to rule out rises on all the major taxes before elections, so afterwards they have to concentrate on more innovative methods of raising money or cut services too deeply.
    It would probably have been better to raise the money via income tax or VAT but that's politically impossible - made so by political parties themselves and their perceived (and probably correct) estimate of how we the public would react.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,695

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    I don't think to say we are a "mess" that can be "fixed" by politicians is the right framing. But we do have problems and I agree that our politics penalises being honest about what is and isn't realistic for governments to do.

    Eg this idea they can enact policies to transform our growth prospects relative to our peers. That's delusional. I'd like politicians to stop promising it. Banned from even talking about growth would be ideal tbh.
    Which bit are you disagreeing with?

    a) The country is in a mess
    b) The country can't be fixed by parties that get elected for a five year term

    I believe both a and b to be true
    Trouble is, most of the alternatives to democracy that humanity has tried end up worse.

    A possible suggestion. Mutually agreed governments of occupation. So (say) we elect the German government, they elect the French, the French elect ours. Stops voters voting themselves pay rises but gives a guardrail against dictators going sour.
    Which poor gits get the US voters?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,727

    Roger said:

    Anyone who feels sorry for Jeremy Clarkson and his Brexiteer farmers hoot your horns.......


    Going to be shocked when you find your Clarkson did not support Brexit.
    Shhhhhush - next you'll be telling him Corbyn was a Leaver.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,203

    That graph must be a blow for Bobby J.

    *snigger* 😂
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,727
    JohnO said:

    So I think of the card carrying pb blue lovelies, @Casino_Royale @TSE @MaxPB and yours truly have voted for Kemi while @HYUFD and @Mortimer backed Jenrick. And @MarqueeMark 'abstained'. Have I missed anyone?

    The result will be announced at 11.00 am on Saturday.

    Kemi
  • Roger said:

    Anyone who feels sorry for Jeremy Clarkson and his Brexiteer farmers hoot your horns.......

    I suspect there are going to substantial demonstrations outside number 10 by the farming community and those new labour mps in rural constituencies are unlikely to win at the next GE
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,727

    Trump vows to “protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left”.

    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1852033622494105832

    Why shouldn't the racist protect Hindu Americans.
    After all the rapist is going to protect American women.
    Then again, maybe someone has shown him a video of the RSS doing their thing....

    (Incidentally, *still* trying to find that video of the RSS in black shorts. Dammit, that was so perfect...)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    JohnO said:

    So I think of the card carrying pb blue lovelies, @Casino_Royale @TSE @MaxPB and yours truly have voted for Kemi while @HYUFD and @Mortimer backed Jenrick. And @MarqueeMark 'abstained'. Have I missed anyone?

    The result will be announced at 11.00 am on Saturday.

    Kemi
    BADENOCH
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,648
    edited October 31

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    The NHS money pit continues. Despite the money chucked at the things it’s worse than ever.

    Any chance someone will stop doing the same old thing again and again, and perhaps consider what actually works elsewhere?
    £200bn a year budget. TWO HUNDRED BILLION A YEAR.

    And, for what??
    Do you think about your comments or just reflexively beat your keyboard at every triggering event?

    As a country we spent less than comparable nations. So yes £200 billion.


    'This analysis examines how health care spending in the UK compares with EU countries in the decade preceding the pandemic. Taking a longer term view enables us to see how trends in spending may have impacted health care resilience today.

    Average day-to-day health spending in the UK between 2010 and 2019 was £3,005 per person – 18% below the EU14 average of £3,655.

    If UK spending per person had matched the EU14 average, then the UK would have spent an average of £227bn a year on health between 2010 and 2019 – £40bn higher than actual average annual spending during this period (£187bn).

    Matching spending per head to France or Germany would have led to an additional £40bn and £73bn (21% to 39% increase respectively) of total health spending each year in the UK.

    Over the past decade, the UK had a lower level of capital investment in health care compared with the EU14 countries for which data are available. Between 2010 and 2019, average health capital investment in the UK was £5.8bn a year. If the UK had matched other EU14 countries’ average investment in health capital (as a share of GDP), the UK would have invested £33bn more between 2010 and 2019 (around 55% higher than actual investment during that period).'

    https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/how-does-uk-health-spending-compare-across-europe-over-the-past-decade
    All spending as “investment”. Ah yes
    Where are you reading this? They seem pretty clear about day-to-day and long term investment. See the conclusion:

    'This analysis shows that over the past decade the UK has spent less on both day-to-day care and investment spending on health care compared with the average EU14 countries. This is mirrored by less capacity, fewer physical resources and therefore greater vulnerability to sudden surges in demand. This meant the UK had to increase spending more rapidly than other countries to respond to the pandemic. Of course, international comparisons also have limitations. Population characteristics differ, and some countries may use resources more efficiently than others and there may be differences in how countries recorded COVID-19 spend.

    Overall if the UK had matched EU14 levels of spending per person on health, day-to-day running costs would have been £39bn higher each year, on average, over the past decade (£30.5bn of which would have been additional government spending). For capital spending, matching the cumulative EU14 average over the past decade would have resulted in the UK investing £33bn more in health-related buildings and equipment. These are significant gaps in spending. Had UK spending kept up with European neighbours it is fair to assume the NHS would have been more resilient and had greater capacity to provide care during the pandemic and reduce the large backlog of care that is its legacy.'

    This underinvestment was a choice. We're now living in the bit of the future Cameron & May chose not to think about.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,727
    edited October 31

    JohnO said:

    So I think of the card carrying pb blue lovelies, @Casino_Royale @TSE @MaxPB and yours truly have voted for Kemi while @HYUFD and @Mortimer backed Jenrick. And @MarqueeMark 'abstained'. Have I missed anyone?

    The result will be announced at 11.00 am on Saturday.

    Kemi
    BADENOCH
    what's that you said?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,637
    JohnO said:

    So I think of the card carrying pb blue lovelies, @Casino_Royale @TSE @MaxPB and yours truly have voted for Kemi while @HYUFD and @Mortimer backed Jenrick. And @MarqueeMark 'abstained'. Have I missed anyone?

    The result will be announced at 11.00 am on Saturday.

    My dad voted for Kemi too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,727

    Roger said:

    Anyone who feels sorry for Jeremy Clarkson and his Brexiteer farmers hoot your horns.......

    I suspect there are going to substantial demonstrations outside number 10 by the farming community and those new labour mps in rural constituencies are unlikely to win at the next GE
    The joke on @Woger is that Clarkson was exactly the kind of person the Remain campaign needed.

    If you've actually heard him talk on the subject, he puts across an interesting, funny and attention grabbing case why Remain was the right answer.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,905

    SMukesh said:

    I don`t know why Jenrick is such long odds unless the bookies have inside knowledge.

    They've met him?
    He was on the telly at lunchtime and I had to turn it off. The guy is simply odious. The sort of bloke you'd avoid in an otherwise empty pub.
    The fake accent is one of the more annoying aspects.
    Kemi is crap and cowardly and weird but far less annoying than JENRICK. Given we'd have to put up with him on the telly for the next five two years, all those PB Tories who have cast their votes for Kemi are doing a public service.
    But who will lead them into the next election?
    What are the odds on Boris?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,886

    SMukesh said:

    I don`t know why Jenrick is such long odds unless the bookies have inside knowledge.

    At this stage, it will be very clear.

    I think Jenrick will still pip 40% of the members vote but it's pretty clear Kemi has won this.

    The 1.15 is free money
    How is it clear? Genuine question.

    Anecdotally she seems to have won on PB, but lost amongst members I know, some of whom really "ought" to have been voting for her.
    The only set of reasonably-accessible Conservatives I have is PB: all others are too diffuse. They include a wide range, from the less ideological @Big_G_NorthWales to the Last Centurion @HYUFD. As a convenient convenience (ouch) sample I find them useful, but yes you are correct, they are not representative. So yes, it wouldn't surprise me if she's lost. But you make your decisions on the data you have at the time: I've second-guessed myself enough in the past and not keen on repeating it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,889

    I am now officially on holiday.

    Here's hoping for a quiet next twelve days or so.

    What’s the current DEFCON status?
  • A council is considering a city centre ban on cyclists to protect pedestrians, with fines for people who do not comply.

    Birmingham City council has become the latest local authority to discuss barring cyclists from pedestrian-only areas to curb anti-social cycling.

    A report by the council’s regulation and community safety executives has raised concerns that food and parcel couriers on e-bikes, travelling “at speed and without care for pedestrians”, pose a particular danger to the public in areas of high footfall.

    The report, published earlier this month, proposes extending the city’s public spaces protection order to encompass cycling. The move would add it to a list of anti-social behaviours that includes graffiti, street drinking, large gatherings, and excessive noise.

    The report said cycling could be “restricted by time periods” or banned outright, with the issue being put to a public consultation.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,203

    JohnO said:

    So I think of the card carrying pb blue lovelies, @Casino_Royale @TSE @MaxPB and yours truly have voted for Kemi while @HYUFD and @Mortimer backed Jenrick. And @MarqueeMark 'abstained'. Have I missed anyone?

    The result will be announced at 11.00 am on Saturday.

    Kemi
    BADENOCH
    BobaJob
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,665
    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    fpt Serious question here, not trying to provoke just soliciting opinions

    I think most of us agree the country is in a mess, don't think that is in dispute

    So given that how many believe a government can actually get elected with policies that could fix the mess.

    Personally my view is however you fix it either to the left or right......you wont get elected being honest about it

    I don't think to say we are a "mess" that can be "fixed" by politicians is the right framing. But we do have problems and I agree that our politics penalises being honest about what is and isn't realistic for governments to do. This is mainly the fault of the electorate.

    Eg this idea that the government (Tory or Labour) can enact policies to transform our growth prospects relative to our peers. That's delusional. I'd like politicians to stop promising it. Banning them from even talking about growth would be ideal tbh.
    Hm.
    I think I get where you're coming from. Growth can't be magicked out of nowhere simply by wanting it, just as you can't legislate for sunshine.
    But politicians can do a lot to inhibit growth. So by not doing those things, they can promote growth.
    Of course, some of those obviously growth-inhibiting things are things which on balance we might want to do anyway - like, for example, green belt protection.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,710

    I am now officially on holiday.

    Here's hoping for an uneventful twelve days or so.

    Planning! That's the great strength of PB bigwigs. Well planning and not-planning those are the two great strengths....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,203

    I am now officially on holiday.

    Here's hoping for an uneventful twelve days or so.

    Economic meltdown nailed on for next week... Keir and Rach out by 10th November?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,257
    I dislike both Badenoch and Jenrick but will be happy to see the back of the latter. At least Badenoch might bring something different to the table , and as far as I know she hasn’t had murals painted over !

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