Categories
Ayrshire hotelier remains the favourite to win the American presidency – politicalbetting.com
Ayrshire hotelier remains the favourite to win the American presidency – politicalbetting.com
I still think Harris remains value.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
(Assuming Harris has something for her news conference at 6)
The highest rate of drug deaths is still among men in “Generation X”, particularly those aged 40-49, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
Cocaine deaths were nearly 10 times higher in 2023 than a decade earlier, claiming more than 1,100 lives.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy5l4nknew0o
Unions given twice as long to strike as Labour boosts workers’ rights
Employment Rights Bill would relax restrictions on unions and extends the strike window to 12 months
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/unions-given-twice-as-long-to-strike-as-labour-boosts-workers-rights-9ncvccdk3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOR38552MJA
General election poll
🔴 Trump 51% (+2)
🔵 Harris 49%
Last poll - 🔵 Harris +2
HarrisX #C - 1244 LV - 10/22
May the punters be wrong on this.
The Unions have to get something for their investment in labour. A nice return on their investment.
In spite of their whining I suspect they will be happy, especially the public sector unions.
I think Trump will win Arizona and increasingly it looks like he will win Michigan and Nevada too. Harris should win Wisconsin with Pennsylvania and Georgia or North Carolina deciding it in my view.
Trump also has his best chance of winning the national popular vote yet. Nationally Harris is polling worse than Biden and slightly worse than or not much better than Hillary was and Trump at least as well as he did in 2016 and 2020 and in some polls like Harris better
Zimbabwe have set a new world record for the highest score in men's T20 international cricket, posting 344-4 against The Gambia in Nairobi, Kenya.
So nothing major when it comes to Trump ! I mean this is pretty mundane given some of the stuff he says !
Apparently it’s a mix of various different drugs.
And there is no doubt that polls systematically understated Trump's vote last time.
The question is have pollsters corrected for what led to the undercount last time?
If no, then it will be an obvious massive Trump win.
But if they have corrected, and there is no systematic polling error, then Trump should be slight favourite.
On the other hand, if the changes they implemented - particularly past vote weighting - result in an overcorrection, then it's entirely possible that Harris is the one being undercounted this time.
I recognise some big differences compared to 2020, but if you want to compare the polling you really ought to make sure they're on the same scale of axes.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
The reason for the different scale was presumabely to show the third-party candidate, but that's irrelevant now.
Unless she loses, of course.
If the odds are 60-40 for Trump, I'd make him the marginal value.
Politicians, the police and the judiciary should stop trying to control a landscape they do not understand
Michael Reiners
From July 30th to August 7th, the UK experienced social unrest in over 30 locations. In response, authorities launched a campaign of doxxing, prosecution, and imprisonment for those expressing support online. One such case involved Lee Dunn, who posted three images of what were clearly supposed to be illegal Islamic migrants with variants of the caption “coming to a town near you”. Mr Dunn was handed a 12 week custodial sentence, despite simply describing the government’s guidance (since 2021) on refugee resettlement, which can be found here at page 8.
In a criminal law context, there should be a clear distinction between words and actions, however, recent prosecutions reveal that, in Britain, this distinction has collapsed. To all reasonable people it is self-evident that speech on social media, aimed at no specific individual, is less serious than real, measurable criminal acts taken against people or property. Why then, has physical violence, arson and riot been given parity in criminal law with words posted online, and, how could this possibly be happening in England?"
https://thecritic.co.uk/the-authorities-are-inept-sheriffs-of-social-media/
Nebraska Senate Polling:
Osborn (I): 48%
Fischer (R): 46%
Change Research / Oct 21, 2024 / n=815
(Osborn Internal)
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849091354225225985
There are about 1.25m registered voters in Nebraska.
Almost half of them are Democrats and Independents.
Maybe not quite enough ?
Though yes if pollsters have corrected for their error last time it remains neck and neck and if overcorrected Harris is probably favourite
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
I think the presser today was just really to try and get some more traction to Kelly’s remarks . Those that like Trump will say Kelly lied , but for those who aren’t Trump fans it does sound like something he’d say ,
Support for providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who came here as children and have not committed a crime:
Support: 69%
Oppose: 21%
YouGov / Oct 22, 2024 / n=1615
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1849119692557848782
Something the GOP has repeatedly vetoed in Congress.
While celebrating former illegal immigrant Musk.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/articles/c36pn5d7eydo
She doesn’t have to run away from it.
https://x.com/scottbaio/status/1848681845744976218?s=61
It really is continuity Sunak with a man who has even less charisma now running the nation.
If so then she is facing some unique challenges, and I wonder to what degree that might handicap her campaign. Also if so then perhaps we'll see the constraints disregarded a little in the upcoming few days.
I'm obviously just an observer in this, but bloody hell America don't vote for the bloated orange snake-oil salesman! (I'm amazed anyone could vote for him)
He said the disillusionment with the government is widespread in his circles
It would make the popular vote very tight, as HY says maybe even a Trump win, yet still deal Trump hefty college defeat as the battleground States narrowly go to Kam one by one.
If I’m right in “more salutes where you don’t really need them” theory, it makes the popular vote polls this time round very misleading to picking the winner based on PV history.
I think Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina is where it’s at. One candidate could win all four - all be it after days of counting - and be comfortable in the college, in spite of the popular vote.
Technically, Jefferson was the incumbent VP in 1801 running to succeed an incumbent one-termer but the circumstances are so different there we can only really start post-12th Amendment.
Who knows if it will make any sense, but I think it's likely to be reasonably ok.
If it's received well then there's some chance that the clown show that is the cabinet up their game. If received badly then it'll be a very, very long winter for Labour. (Relieved only by the warming bonfire that is the Tories)
I'm an ex-Tory, so not a Labour backer, but I really don't want to see them crash and burn this early in their run. They are after all running the shop.
Their first budget hasn't even been announced yet.
I wish I’d stuck to my original plan of not voting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMBb3dWodDI
"Particularly this week while the media are using racist gang tropes to justify the killing of Chris Kaba."
Labour MP Kim Johnson
https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1849082667020472827
The Labour voters I know in London are still fairly optimistic, or at least unperturbed. My usually Tory cousin in Gloucestershire, who voted Starmer, is more in the group of those who 've already written the whole project off. Some of the softer vote may return if there are economic and public service improvements.
I follow a lot of YouTube channels, mainly anti- Trump Republicans. They seem to think it is tight and could flip either way, and the polling seems to be nip and tuck both at state level and nationallyI have the greatest foreboding when on this site. I genuinely wonder whether we are more Trump favourable here because any Trump positive poll is posted and positive Harris polls posted randomly.
FWIW I suspect Trump shades the states, but how many?And Harris wins the popular vote but by less that the margin between Hillary and Trump.
(I would also point out that I repeatedly tipped Harris at long odds.)
(PS who do you think will win Pennsylvania?)
And the same applies on the Republican/Trump side: because their candidate did better than the polls last time, the assumption is that they are winning clearly.
This flows through into what is being shared, because people share things that fit in with their existing narrative: i.e. the early voting data is disastrous for the Dems! Is it, though? Instead of comparing it to 2020 which was the middle of Covid, how does it compare to 2016 or the 2022 midterms?
Likewise, the early voting from Georgia, which does not include party affiliation but does include gender and county looked pretty positive for Harris. 55% women, and the Atlanta area the main driver of turnout... I'd be very excited about that if I was the Democrat campaign given how significant the gender differences in turnout are.
I hear from a former colleague that's in a position to know that civil servants were amazed by how her team hadn't anticipated the simplest objections to her policies (e.g. that non-doms might leave if they are shafted, making increasing taxes on them self-defeating).
That's why there have been so many unattributable leaks of badly thought through policies in the press recently. They were told that their proposals won't raise anything like as much as they thought and are now desperately grasping for any revenue-raising gimmicks they can find.
But I suppose we'll know in a week.
I hope your book is right!
https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1849137011875061970
In total, more than 2 million people have already voted - 90% in person - in Georgia, and 55.5% of them are women.
Trumps not the opponent in this race, thinking of change, feeling worse off - especially younger voters - is the opponent to beat.
Simply focus on how you will create jobs, put money back into pockets and household budgets, and deal with illegal immigration and crime, fess what things have not been great last 4 years, but your focus will deliver on them them in the next 4 years.
Stop messing this up with belt-tattle and psychobabble about fascism, Kam. 😣
https://www.natesilver.net/p/likability-isnt-enough
The back benches are increasingly a liability rather than a reserve - for all parties.
No. The referendum was on the Thursday. A few days before, Cameron gave an impromptu speech in Downing Street that contained nothing new. It was a signifier that he knew the campaign was in trouble. I assume the same motivator induced Kamala to speak.
TL;DR
It's 50/50, but if he had to guess it would be that Trump will win. However, there's been a lot of poll methodology changes in the last four years, so a large polling miss is likely, and he doesn't know which way it will be.
The best bet, though, is for one of Trump or Harris to sweep at least 6 of the 7 battleground states. He thinks that's a 60+% chance.
Pro-Trump case: he's unusually good at reaching certain voter segments, polls tend to understate him, voters hate hate hate inflation.
It feels 50/50 to me still.
Remember Farage conceding?
Quinnipiac had been for the most part in this cycle poor for Harris in the swing states .
Tonight’s polls show changes with their last polling .
H2H
Michigan
Harris 50 up 3
Trump 46 down 5
Wisconsin
Harris 48 up 1
Trump 48 down 1
I’m sure that Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are good people with a few good ideas, though I have reservations about both. Badenoch, like the Tory elite class, I suspect, is much more comfortable with mass immigration than she lets on, refuses to unequivocally commit to leaving the ECHR, and has not only supported aspects of the woke regime but has shown herself more than willing to indulge it.
https://x.com/rolandmcs/status/1849135864971944412
Yes, I know, I'm easily amused. But still.
The “Better call Gorilla” election. “You need a fighter, not a smiler”.
The first 30 seconds Kam should give every microphone - “Jobs, full order books, money in pockets and household budgets, secure borders, family safe, crime free neighbourhoods” followed by the confession “not all things have gone well last 4 years, we will get them right the next 4 years.”
Instead she ramps a presser that’s nothing but speculative psychobabble about fascism.
She might as well simply said “feeling let down, feeling insecure? Vote Gorilla not another smiler”.
It couldn’t have done any more harm.
🦍 Grrrrrrrr
There may be some spouting on the web, but damn thin on the ground! Even in states where Harris IS clearly winning (such as WA State) there are still plenty of down-ballot state and local races AND measures up for grabs.
Including some that are likely to motivate even low-propensity-to-vote voters, for example choice referendum in Florida.
In some other respects Starmer is quite like Sunak. Neither man is good at retail politics; both are/were highly unpopular; neither is nearly as bad as popular opinion of them and both are massively better than either of Sunak's predecessors.