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Labour’s left-wing problem – politicalbetting.com
Labour’s left-wing problem – politicalbetting.com
Picture: Wikimedia Commons
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Labour’s left-wing problem – politicalbetting.com
Picture: Wikimedia Commons
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Whilst there might be a small grouping of left-wing ex-MPs, are they all cohesive enough to form a separate grouping? In the case of the likes of McDonnell and Corbyn, it seems possible as they've got very similar views. Burgon as well, possibly. But does Duffield agree with them enough?
These MPs are solid in their own views, and are unwilling to bend them enough (or continue doing so...) to rejoin the Labour Party. Why would they want to bend them to cope with a grouping?
Starmer can allow as many on the left to throw their toys from the pram, virtue signal and tear up the membership cards as feel the need to do so.
However, yes, come the next GE, if the result looks like it could be tight, a few more independents splitting the Labour vote and letting the Tories in could present a problem.
We saw one Tory gain and at least one Tory hold as a result of this in 2024. If that becomes double figures, not good.
Indeed Corbyn held his seat and beat Labour as an Independent even in July
I'm not sure that the Left group is that small. I have not added up the members of the Socialist Campaign Group, but when I looked fairly recently it was ~30 iirc, and I don't see that many will have lost their seats.
OTOH against a 170+ majority, even that is not very many.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwmFw427CpY
Clicking on the story at the end of it there is the usual Graun plea for cash.
"Teams of lawyers from the rich and powerful trying to stop us publishing stories they don’t want you to see."
Well.
Having real temperature control (as opposed to power setting) on a stove top. The twist is having an integrated rechargeable battery, so the cooking surface can deliver instantaneous power that's well in excess of the mains supply.
So we ended up integrating a new type of sensor with the highest performance induction system I think ever built ...
After cooking with it, we realized something: actually having high heat + temperature sensing is ... big.
Like "worth replacing a high end stove" big.
https://x.com/sdamico/status/1826435062126313790
Though if Starmer stands down before the next GE, I would expect a different style of leader who might attract them back. Leaders are usually replaced by someone who covers what was missed by the last one. So I would expect Labour's next leader to be more openly left wing and a better communicator of vision, perhaps Ms Rayner for example.
*he seems quite left wing in his policies, as far as I can tell. He isn't particularly socially conservative.
Jenrick believes he remains the frontrunner. Following his speech he went straight to his car to begin making calls to MPs. There are claims his allies are floating the idea of paid shadow cabinet roles, funded by a donor. While the campaign has not ruled out the approach, Jenrick’s priority is said to be repairing the Conservative Party’s parlous finances.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/labour-hopes-tory-melodrama-will-distract-from-freebies-cloud-cv5t0vb62
IIRC only the Leader and the Shadow Chief Whip are paid salaries for shadow cabinet jobs (out of public funds.)
Mr Eagles, interesting that only the party leader and Shadow Chief Whip get salaries, but not the Shadow Chancellor.
Jezbollah has tried to bring together an independent group
for changeand time will tell how stable that is.Love my induction hob. 20 this year.
Half your pans being incompatible with an Induction hob, not so great.
Sorry for the off topic. It’s just a thing I can’t not enthuse about. Magic powers from an unimaginable future on my worktop.
Surely Bernard Manning tribute act Frank Hester is one of the few this far out from the next GE to want to splash the cash. And we have all been told by the current iteration of PB Tories there is no such thing as a free lunch, unless it's the Spectator buying Leon's snap at the Groucho.
Anyway, Johnson's pitch for next PM is gaining a head of steam. In his own mind at least.
A stove top gas flame burns at a bit under 2000 deg C - but the mount of energy it transfers to the pan varies with the amount of gas. A dry pan with nothing in it would eventually reach that temperature as the pan heats up, of course. Add food, and it becomes a lot more complicated.
Cooking is a dynamic process, Controlling the temperature of the pan is actually quite a skill.
A temperature controlled hob makes it easy - the control electronics do all the work of turning the power up and down.
They have lost their way
Also, it takes the guesswork (or required cooking experience) out of following a recipe.
You should be able to get perfect results reproducibly.
So the real benefit is to the non cook.
It's why rice or bread makers are popular.
This is the same sort of thing for a stove top.
What I'd like is a sort of kettle that maintained warm or hot water at a constant temperature (as kettles work by detecting when water boils, not when it reaches 100°C). The nearest I can find are @turbotubbs's water baths (or sous vide machines) and baby bottle warmers.
https://youtu.be/yJ5t0IzPA70?si=H5lorzBUxB8us5RF
The dockworkers strike was resolved and the US jobs report exceeded expectations.
Next week the final inflation report before November 5th is likely to show a further fall . Prices at the pump continue to edge down.
The issue now is what happens in the Middle East which could throw a curveball into proceedings by way of causing oil prices to jump .
In terms of the impact of Hurricane Helene , this could impact early voting in parts of North Carolina and Georgia . Both GOP and Dem leaning counties have been effected .
Next week more states start early in person voting with the key swing state of Arizona kicking off on the 9th October .
To me he's over-reaching a bit, and seems a bit over-focused on gas stoves.
Further down he talks about how he's going back to cooking rice in a pan not a "rice-cooker". I know what temperature my rice is cooking at when simmering ... 100C, because it's just come off the boil.
For that kind of application, a bain-marie would be a better option, I think.
Or an opaque Tiger (economy donation) in the tank
But I think you want a water boiler or urn ?
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Dorchester-Digital-Variable-Temperature-1-7Litre/dp/B08XJSDG8P/ref=sr_1_15?crid=2PS19R1LMTPQA&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.D2BdktSDKm-wbhrHtapiXOTjuew84ac8RHbjK8c8qP-mjnUtjAf-pqI12KEvBR8zIfS7HBCuPCPHeo3dNArhHZOt5YBGZucVRkRb-D8ajM1ZzKHx8ky8uLD0R7ROFHFzNdkMUglyh6G5Ky9A3RbMVh-BnET_RiueF6AtDKmFtf2tTlJ0rMNC3QT7_HhDujIWhFITJ4MMFOwhYp4pKHTg5EwMcodObTsB_WJjH2z6Xvg.prV5L0M0GqYPuVKWZZ3kd1oIKBsXmLR-g64Wg7nQizI&dib_tag=se&keywords=kettle+temperature&qid=1728116327&sprefix=kettle+temperature,aps,112&sr=8-15&ufe=INHOUSE_INSTALLMENTS:UK_IHI_3M_VF&th=1
I've thought for a while the next big political movement in this country (and more widely in other parts of Europe) will be something along the lines of Wagenknecht's BSW party in Germany.
This evolution will further diminish the relevance of terms like "right" and "left" which are already only used either as laxy short hand or perjorative terms.
Reform, for example, has, I believe, a dichotomy between elements of the leadership (Tice and Farage in particular) and some of the membership. Yes, resistance to immigration is their glue but just as every other party, it is evolving into a broader church attracting those who are culturally conservative and strongly patriotic or nationalist.
The fault line is, as it often is, around the role of the State and economics. Some might prefer the small-State, low tax model (I'm sure Tice and Farage, who are basically unreconstructed Thatcherites, do) but other parts of Reform want an active, interventionist State with public money spent, not, as they see it, on migrants, but on improving the areas in which they live.
This is why Johnson's "levelling up" agenda was so popular with ex-Labour voters in 2019 and why, when it wasn't delivered, the sense of betrayal drove hundreds of thousands of those ex-2019 Conservatives into the arms of Reform.
I'm no Conservative or Reform supporter but I can see the attraction and desirability of levelling up - the cutting back of HS2 by Sunak was probably the final nail in the coffin and it may be Reform's local strength will increase quickly (we see this in Blackpool and Amber Valley, two classic WWC areas which have frankly been let down by successive Governments of all stripes).
How will Reform evolve? It won't be Farage's plaything for ever and I suspect it will become something less like a British AfD or VOX and more like a British BSW.
(And is what cooks control when they turn up or down the heat.)
My 'interesting' video from the last day or so, hinting at Opus Dei influence on SCOTUS, via the individual who is the orchestrator of the Federalist Society.
Some influence would not be a surprise, given Opus Dei and common interests with the Christian Nationalist agenda - but I need to see some more evidence before I come to a view.
One aspect is about a long-term aim to confer personhood status on the human foetus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9wJ1FuELIQ
I have stopped using our induction hob following the recommendation of my cardiologist as they can interfer with a pacemaker
It is not much of a problem as I use air fryers
Are there any other devices that could potentially cause issues?
In practice I ensure my Samsung watch is worn on my right wrist and I do not place my mobile near the pacemaker
The cardiologist did say that any outside electrical interference with the pacemaker would make me very ill very quickly and to seek immediate medical attention
I have adapted and try to be sensible, and if I am not my wife issues a stern warning very quickly !!!
We had a Ninja temperature controlled kettle which was good but then it failed after 6 months so just have an ordinary one now
Induction hobs are shit.
Both have horrible ‘buttons’ and the latter requires stupid special pans.
Gas is the only choice for people who like to cook.
She seems to be positioning herself as an opposition speaker.
I also couldn’t see her winning as an Indy.
Most obviously, Duffield is persona non-grata on the left - If it were a market, I'd have a small wager on her fighting the next election as a Conservative, if they look resurgent having returned to a semblance of sanity.
The Gaza independents, with the exception of Corbyn are more socially conservative than the left, for obvious reasons.
To pick out Adam as you do, the 'not particularly social conservative'. His one statement on LGBTQ+ issues and education is that though children should be taught about all relationships "parents must be taken into consideration".
Diplomatic, but very much the line of mainstream social conservatives, not those who sit to the left of Labour because they think it's too right-wing. His not spouting the views of some supporters is to be welcomed - but it doesn't mean Muslim communitarian politics sits that easily alongside blue haired ultra-progressivism once you move beyond Israel/Palestine and ask what policies each actually wants, over slogans.
The groupings and alliances that formed over Iraq failed to make much headway. In part due to this and the genuine 'terrorists/dictators who dislike the same people we do are good, actually' hard left, who believe things that shock progressives for who Labour is an eternal disappointment and get drawn in by agreement on anti-establishment, 'anti-war' rhetoric.
Then you have those who basically want to still be left-wing Labour politicians with solid achievements, and those who want something more vibey and incoherent like the Greens.
Corbyn provided a weird rallying point for a good while - but that was partly because he was to some extent performatively vague - supporters who'd agree on little could project their views and favourite ideas on to him, because his words were often so vacuous. Also in part because they were fighting shared enemies for control of Labour.
Once you move beyond that though, there's not necessarily much of a shared programme beyond being angry at the Labour Party. Which can work in the run up to an election they look likely to win as a rallying point for dissent- but probably needs more to sustain it in the longer term otherwise everyone starts bickering.
Something like pancakes/griddle scones I could imagine would cook a lot better if you could hold the pan at a constant temperature. This sounds great.
But gas is the cash of the kitchen.
Cooking a curry with flames shooting up the side of the pan is fantastic.
Gas is the best option for cooking.
Northern England currently has full employment for the first time for 50+ years together with affordable housing.
If you're a WWC teenager in Amber Valley you're opportunities are better than those of any previous generation.
But opportunities are not guarantees.
The right to try is not the same as a right to have.
Regrettably many will fail to take these opportunities and will be 'left behind'.
Just as there are so many 'left behind' from previous generations.
And for these 'levelling up' is really just a different way of saying 'take it from them and give it to me'.
With the 'them' often being people like themselves who have been far more successful.
As well as things on the economy meaning a good week for Harris, on the other side of the scale Trump has had a bad week. As well as the unsealing of the January 6th documents, he is ranting about Harris's mental health in a way that is only going to turn off anybody not already in his coterie of die-hard voters.
Multiple obvious lies aside, JD Vance held it together for 88 minutes of the VP debate, then lost it in the final two, when he refused to confirm that Biden won in 2020. It is obvious that unlike Pence, this VP would do Trump's every bidding. Including refusing to confirm the Electoral College votes. WIth the economy moving the way of Harris, the final days of the campaign may end up being dominated for voters by the question of who upholds the Constitution, justice and liberty.
And on that, Harris is a mile ahead.
Yet on the other hand, the large majority means that there’s more likely to be a load of infighting in the first place, because the rebels know that the actual vote is not in doubt, so there’s likely to be a rebellion of sorts on pretty much everything.
It’s going to be a tough job for the whips, trying to herd cats for the next four years.
Either they dont care as long as their side wins or they do care a bit but don't believe Trump will do all the things he says he will do and indeed has already attempted through his minions like that GOP woman given nine years jail time yesterday.
I can see her being the standard bearer of the Labour left, though clearly Starmer is no fan.
As most opposition to Starmer is that he has been to Tory both in policy and in troughing, his real threat is from the left. If he can win back some of the Green and Indy vote, as well as GOTV then Labour gets a second term. I suspect he will stand down in 2028 to refresh the party.
It is as if Israel has all terrorist group leaders AirTagged in Lebanon.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/04/eu-trade-war-with-china-will-not-save-bloated-carmakers/
Germany voted against, worried more about Chinese retaliation and German exports than the domestic European market being flooded with cheap Chinese cars.
Israel seems to have much better intel in Lebanon than in Gaza.
Ministers are facing pressure to introduce minimum unit pricing for alcohol after Lord Darzi’s investigation into the NHS highlighted the “alarming” death toll in England caused by cheap drink.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/oct/05/england-urged-to-bring-in-minimum-unit-price-on-alcohol-as-deaths-rise-10-a-year
... Mr Zahawi said: “I was part of Liverpool’s firm and would go out looking for fights as a football hooligan.
“In one fight with Southampton fans...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/nadhim-zahawi-football-hooligan-liverpool-b2623543.html
The real reason Rishi sacked him.
I don't think we have to worry about TSE being revealed to be part of such a crew, as getting into trouble like that would mess up his trainers.
(To be fair on @Anabobazina , I am unusually resilient due to all my camping gear)
Life here is going to be utterly joyless.