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As the beauty parade begins – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    The helpful political news for them is that at least in numbers terms absolute net migration is inevitably going to come down over the next couple of years, purely as a function of maths.

    Possible that small boat crossings decline too, as it doesn't seem to have a particularly big summer in the Med this year so the pipeline for next summer might be down. Certainly the numbers in the latter part of this season have been substantially down on earlier in the year. I doubt that has anything to do with the change of government, but it's optically convenient.

    Question is whether anti-elite populism keeps surging regardless. It's not all about immigration after all. Partly that is in Labour's gift: they need to give people hope and a bit of optimism.
    The real objection of the far right is not only to immigration present and future, it is to migration that has already happened. Once migration slows down (if it does) then the question of whether the far right turns its attention to migration past is important.
    “Remigration” is the term the Far Right uses, for this

    I reckon this ugly idea is going to enter the mainstream of politics, via the rise of the Far Right parties across Europe. eg Austria yesterday. Once these parties start actually winning elections, the dam breaks

    The far right gets about 35% of the vote across Europe. This is probably a ceiling for the moment. In normal politics people would be forming coalitions with them (NL the exception )
    but left \centrists\ soft right are having a boycott.

    In Saxony we have the odd spectacle of the CDU refusing to go in to coalition with "the heirs to Hitler" but quite content to fom a government with "the heirs to Stalin". Who of course murdered many more people.

    How long this will continue who knows. But we are getting to elections where something will have to break.
  • One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited September 30
    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Super weird "Most Read" section of the BBC website. Everything gets its own story apart from Badenoch and Israel.


    Super weird that the BBC posts a list of this morning's headlines.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpw5yyjx75po

    Not at all weird that Topping comments on something he hasn't looked at ?
    Twat. It is the only conflated item.

    I mean you can read, can't you.
    @TOPPING - the BBC report the paper headlines like that every single day. See here: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cpml2v678pxt&ved=2ahUKEwihjKKQquqIAxVdVUEAHTP1IeAQFnoECAcQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1_gZ2gfZg9PnTng8tbZ3gP

    NigelB is not the twat here. It's you.

    (Apologies for the long link)
    Seems twattishness is afoot on PB this morning. You and Nigel can go skipping twattishly into the sunset.

    It was a funny and weird presentation of the "Most Read" but you and Nige are having some kind of special moment about it. Good luck to you both.
    It's not. This has been demonstrated to you. You don't have the grace or temperament to recognise your mistake and instead called someone a twat.

    Nice one.
    Twat.
    Oh goody, a quiet Monday morning talking about (if misspelling) Orcadian airfields of the Fleet Air Arm.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited September 30
    kenObi said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Taz said:

    Alcohol prices up in Scotland today due to MUP up to 65p

    Well done SNP, a winning policy. Even though alcohol related deaths increased when they promised the introduction of MUP would see them fall the policy is a winner as its advocates have said.

    Meanwhile

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-61710564

    Doesn't higher supermarket alcohol prices in Scotland mean that the supermarkets can keep their prices lower in England.

    IIRC wine prices haven't increased for over a decade (if you use the regular 25% discount for six) and its not difficult to buy 500ml beer for £1.
    The minimum alcohol price increase won’t affect the price of a decent bottle of wine, or a pint of beer in the pub, which, hopefully, will encourage people to go to the pub instead of drinking at home. I’m not bothered if it makes multipacks of piss like Tennents or Bud Lite dearer. The initial minimum price law practically wiped out sales of stuff like White Lightning in Scotland. I don’t see that as a bad thing. Where I disagree with the policy is that the supermarkets benefit from the higher margins, not the Government.
    Look at how benzo (valium and related drugs) use - and deaths from said drugs - rocketed in Scotland in the aftermath of minimum unit pricing.

    A £2.50 can of spesh, or a 20p knock off pill.

    Plus, as they both affect the same receptors in the brain, they potentiate each other, i.e. you can have one 20p pill and it will make the effects of a single can £2.50 can much stronger.

    Source: https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/minimum-alcohol-pricing-has-driven-people-to-street-drugs-say-experts-8t5z8tsf9
    And what would explain the huge increase in deaths from drugs in Scotland before May 2018 ?

    Street benzo is taken alongside opiods (Heroin) which is a significant cause of deaths.

    No doubt minimum pricing has an effect but its a simplistic argument.

    Drug deaths in Scotland have been decades in the making.
    Poverty, homelessness, trauma, culture.

    The biggest cohorts for deaths are 50-59 and 60 and above.

    More than 1/2 of problem drug users are over 35.

    People who started using in the 80's & 90's and haven't stopped. No surprise their life expectancy isn't like mine or yours
    Perhaps it created a change in behaviour, in long term drug users?

    I think more data is needed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,306
    HYUFD said:

    'Conservative Party Conference begins in earnest tomorrow.

    Until now, I have refrained from intervening in the upcoming leadership election — but the time has come.

    [THREAD]
    Kemi Badenoch has spent weeks positioning herself as tough on immigration.

    But in 2018 she campaigned in Parliament to increase legal migration, and was the biggest champion for students bringing in dependents.

    I don't believe a word that she says on anything.

    Formerly a man that believed in nothing, Robert Jenrick now pitches himself as the great hardliner.

    This is almost certainly done for political gain and not out of conviction. He will divide the party.

    I doubt that Jenrick will last long if he wins.'
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432712332554701
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432714727543232
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432717147578636
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432720037732617

    The only Conservative post-2016 who has proven he has the ability to create an election-winning coalition is Boris Johnson.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,389
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    Forget any ideas of a coalition with Reform.

    A rabble of malcontents is incapable of doing any form of governing.

    Any attempt would fall apart quicker that the Truss government.
    If Badenoch or Jenrick are elected Tory leader a Reform and Tory deal is very likely, if Tugendhat or Cleverly are elected it isn't. Regardless of what such a government may look like
    Then you should be praying for Ms Enoch or Jenrique

    Neutralising Reform is essential for the Tories
    Yet they can't regain a majority without taking a big chunk of new home counties yellow wall.
  • HYUFD said:

    'Conservative Party Conference begins in earnest tomorrow.

    Until now, I have refrained from intervening in the upcoming leadership election — but the time has come.

    [THREAD]
    Kemi Badenoch has spent weeks positioning herself as tough on immigration.

    But in 2018 she campaigned in Parliament to increase legal migration, and was the biggest champion for students bringing in dependents.

    I don't believe a word that she says on anything.

    Formerly a man that believed in nothing, Robert Jenrick now pitches himself as the great hardliner.

    This is almost certainly done for political gain and not out of conviction. He will divide the party.

    I doubt that Jenrick will last long if he wins.'
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432712332554701
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432714727543232
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432717147578636
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432720037732617

    The only Conservative post-2016 who has proven he has the ability to create an election-winning coalition is Boris Johnson.
    But have you seen his record on immigration?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    There is absolutely no way of predicting the next GE especially with the talentless individuals seeking election to conservative leader

    I very much doubt Farage will be around in 5 years but even if he is we are likely to remain a deeply divided and divisive country

    Badenoch car crash maternity comments, followed by the equally absurd comments by Jenrick about the Star of David should make every decent conservative recoil at the thought of either leading the party
    My money would be on a LD-Con-Reform-DUP coalition as has become popular across Europe. Right of centre parties preferring the fallacy that they can control the far right element rather than compromise across the centre.
    It looks like being a tightly fought contest between Jenrick and Badenoch as to which can self-sabotage their support among the MPs and lose the nomination.
    If the LDs went into coalition with either Reform or the DUP I would be off tout de suite.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    edited September 30
    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly, a tragedy waiting to happen.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,306

    HYUFD said:

    'Conservative Party Conference begins in earnest tomorrow.

    Until now, I have refrained from intervening in the upcoming leadership election — but the time has come.

    [THREAD]
    Kemi Badenoch has spent weeks positioning herself as tough on immigration.

    But in 2018 she campaigned in Parliament to increase legal migration, and was the biggest champion for students bringing in dependents.

    I don't believe a word that she says on anything.

    Formerly a man that believed in nothing, Robert Jenrick now pitches himself as the great hardliner.

    This is almost certainly done for political gain and not out of conviction. He will divide the party.

    I doubt that Jenrick will last long if he wins.'
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432712332554701
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432714727543232
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432717147578636
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432720037732617

    The only Conservative post-2016 who has proven he has the ability to create an election-winning coalition is Boris Johnson.
    But have you seen his record on immigration?
    That just proves the point even more.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    There is absolutely no way of predicting the next GE especially with the talentless individuals seeking election to conservative leader

    I very much doubt Farage will be around in 5 years but even if he is we are likely to remain a deeply divided and divisive country

    Badenoch car crash maternity comments, followed by the equally absurd comments by Jenrick about the Star of David should make every decent conservative recoil at the thought of either leading the party
    I honestly just don't see what was wrong with her thoughts on maternity pay. Are we saying this is a policy area where no one can question the costs or the length of time or the regulations on business?

    Her comment that basically women had more babies before maternity pay was crass and shows she's not ready for LOTO but I don't think it was that utterly bad.

    It might have been unwise in the middle of a contest but given the profile of the membership I doubt it.
    She’s not totally wrong, but as ever the bigger issue is the cost of housing that makes it impossible for many couples to live on one salary while they have pre-school children.
    Or alternatively it is both couples doing paid work that has had an impact on increasing house prices so much
    That’s a factor, but the largest factors are a shortage of housing and the willingness of banks to lend ever-higher salary multiples.

    There was a discussion here last week about a bank lending 6x joint salary, which with current interest rates would result in mortgage payments of half their combined take-home pay.
    I did like the suggestion that a couple spending half their take home pay on housing was just fine.

    If anything goes slightly wrong, they can live on fresh air, I presume.
    It would be an absolutely terrifying position to be in, only needs a tick up in interest rates, redundancy, sickness, divorce, or even maternity, to be totally upside-down on your monthly finances.

    Even a general recession or an increase in local housebuilding, could leave you upside-down despite keeping your jobs.

    Look at the extreme volatility of the last five years, and think how that might have affected a couple so overloaded with debt. It’s irresponsible lending, and the banks are only doing it to prop up the housing market in general.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited September 30
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    Forget any ideas of a coalition with Reform.

    A rabble of malcontents is incapable of doing any form of governing.

    Any attempt would fall apart quicker that the Truss government.
    If Badenoch or Jenrick are elected Tory leader a Reform and Tory deal is very likely, if Tugendhat or Cleverly are elected it isn't. Regardless of what such a government may look like
    Then you should be praying for Ms Enoch or Jenrique

    Neutralising Reform is essential for the Tories
    To ensure the Tories remain main opposition and are not overtaken by Reform yes, to have any chance of winning a majority again the Tories need to win back centrist voters lost to Labour and the LDs too
  • HYUFD said:

    'Conservative Party Conference begins in earnest tomorrow.

    Until now, I have refrained from intervening in the upcoming leadership election — but the time has come.

    [THREAD]
    Kemi Badenoch has spent weeks positioning herself as tough on immigration.

    But in 2018 she campaigned in Parliament to increase legal migration, and was the biggest champion for students bringing in dependents.

    I don't believe a word that she says on anything.

    Formerly a man that believed in nothing, Robert Jenrick now pitches himself as the great hardliner.

    This is almost certainly done for political gain and not out of conviction. He will divide the party.

    I doubt that Jenrick will last long if he wins.'
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432712332554701
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432714727543232
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432717147578636
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432720037732617

    The only Conservative post-2016 who has proven he has the ability to create an election-winning coalition is Boris Johnson.
    But have you seen his record on immigration?
    That just proves the point even more.
    Nah, he didn’t win an election on his record as PM.

    I’d remind you all that when he left office his ratings were sub Corbyn at GE2019.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    HYUFD said:

    'Conservative Party Conference begins in earnest tomorrow.

    Until now, I have refrained from intervening in the upcoming leadership election — but the time has come.

    [THREAD]
    Kemi Badenoch has spent weeks positioning herself as tough on immigration.

    But in 2018 she campaigned in Parliament to increase legal migration, and was the biggest champion for students bringing in dependents.

    I don't believe a word that she says on anything.

    Formerly a man that believed in nothing, Robert Jenrick now pitches himself as the great hardliner.

    This is almost certainly done for political gain and not out of conviction. He will divide the party.

    I doubt that Jenrick will last long if he wins.'
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432712332554701
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432714727543232
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432717147578636
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432720037732617

    The only Conservative post-2016 who has proven he has the ability to create an election-winning coalition is Boris Johnson.
    A temporary and fragile coalition, as it turned out.
    Though it's notable that not a few of the members interviewed at their conference brought up the idea of bringing him back as leader. Which arguably shows how much work the party has to sort itself out.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,389
    ‪sundersays.bsky.social‬ ‪@sundersays.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    It is hard to appeal to Reform voters and swing voters at the same time - because Reform voters are simply massive outliers in public attitudes to immigration, in contrast to Conservatives, never mind Con/LD and Con/Lab swing voters

    https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3l5ecjjf7fd2s
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    Forget any ideas of a coalition with Reform.

    A rabble of malcontents is incapable of doing any form of governing.

    Any attempt would fall apart quicker that the Truss government.
    If Badenoch or Jenrick are elected Tory leader a Reform and Tory deal is very likely, if Tugendhat or Cleverly are elected it isn't. Regardless of what such a government may look like
    So Badenoch Jenrick = chance of getting back in to government
    Cleverly Tugendhat = hello wilderness
    Badenoch or Jenrick's only chance of getting back in to government would be on Farage's terms, it would be Farage dictating terms to them for his support.

    Cleverly and Tugendhat however could get back into government on their own terms, as they could win an overall majority if Starmer's government is unpopular enough
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,583
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why did Kemi even get involved in the maternity pay thing?

    Seems an odd and random subject to raise in the middle of a leadership campaign? Perhaps she doesn't really want to become LOTO?

    She’s not very good, I did warn you, she’s like Corbyn, apparently it is a smear to use her own words against her.
    She’s a mix of interesting and lightweight

    Question for Tories is: would she grow in the job, gain some wisdom, or be a cute black William Hague (elevated far too young)

    I suspect the latter, unfortunately. But if the Tories fancy a gamble, that might just pay off: she’s the one
    It's kind of easy for you or me to say this, as we have no particular stake in the party. I can see that if you were a member to whom the Conservative Party was a Precious Thing you might be rather keener to go for a low risk option who probably wouldn't break the party but also who probably wouldn't get you more than a moderately sized step back towards a majority at the next election. But for what? What is the Conservative Party actually for, if not governing. (Or more to the point, for stopping a Labour government.) She's the only one with a chance of a change in the Conservative Party fortunes in the short term (not least because she's the only one who's unapologetically conservative).
  • FF43 said:

    I suspect that Badenoch has -probably- missed out on the final two now. Slight chance she squeezes in at the expense of Cleverly / Tugendhat.

    This one might be a good contest to lose though.

    I have posted before that imho she's not yet ready for prime time. Maybe yesterday confirm this.

    Lose gracefully now and be available in two years when Jenrick is ousted.

    FWIW I think she'd be an interesting LOTO but she wont lead them back to office.
    Badenoch is 44 years old and acts like a not particularly mature teenager. When do you think she will be ready for prime time?

    I do agree assumptions behind policies should be challenged and changed when they don't deliver the best balance of outcomes. There's a good example of that with Winter Fuel Payment. Maternity pay needs to balance costs for business against making childcare and employment work for mothers.
    I see she's ditched the specs (presumably for contacts) which shows that she's put some not particulalry deep thought into how she comes over.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    HYUFD said:

    'Conservative Party Conference begins in earnest tomorrow.

    Until now, I have refrained from intervening in the upcoming leadership election — but the time has come.

    [THREAD]
    Kemi Badenoch has spent weeks positioning herself as tough on immigration.

    But in 2018 she campaigned in Parliament to increase legal migration, and was the biggest champion for students bringing in dependents.

    I don't believe a word that she says on anything.

    Formerly a man that believed in nothing, Robert Jenrick now pitches himself as the great hardliner.

    This is almost certainly done for political gain and not out of conviction. He will divide the party.

    I doubt that Jenrick will last long if he wins.'
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432712332554701
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432714727543232
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432717147578636
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432720037732617

    Nigel Farage telling the Conservative Party no matter how much you pander, I will out-pander you every time.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly, a tragedy waiting to happen.
    They were supposed to be fixing 13/14 at Piccadilly two decades ago, when I was a regular visitor to Manchester for work and play. It was horrifically overcrowded at peak times way back then.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    edited September 30
    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    At Euston they’ve replaced the main departure boards with adverts and the new departure boards are unreadable unless you’re stood in front of them.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,178
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    There is absolutely no way of predicting the next GE especially with the talentless individuals seeking election to conservative leader

    I very much doubt Farage will be around in 5 years but even if he is we are likely to remain a deeply divided and divisive country

    Badenoch car crash maternity comments, followed by the equally absurd comments by Jenrick about the Star of David should make every decent conservative recoil at the thought of either leading the party
    I honestly just don't see what was wrong with her thoughts on maternity pay. Are we saying this is a policy area where no one can question the costs or the length of time or the regulations on business?

    Her comment that basically women had more babies before maternity pay was crass and shows she's not ready for LOTO but I don't think it was that utterly bad.

    It might have been unwise in the middle of a contest but given the profile of the membership I doubt it.
    She’s not totally wrong, but as ever the bigger issue is the cost of housing that makes it impossible for many couples to live on one salary while they have pre-school children.
    Or alternatively it is both couples doing paid work that has had an impact on increasing house prices so much
    It's both. House prices have risen with the existence of many more dual incomes, and we have far more duel income families than we used to because house prices have risen so much. But all of that is only because housing demand is very inelastic and supply very tightly constrained.

    If we did what we can to reduce demand (net zero migration) and un-constrain supply (make planning permission far less difficult to get, dial back building regs so build costs aren't so sky high), then house prices would drop (at least in real terms), and thus the pressure on couples to earn two fulltime wages would fall too. Which in turn would almost certainly do more to encourage people to have kids than more maternity pay.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Super weird "Most Read" section of the BBC website. Everything gets its own story apart from Badenoch and Israel.


    Super weird that the BBC posts a list of this morning's headlines.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpw5yyjx75po

    Not at all weird that Topping comments on something he hasn't looked at ?
    Twat. It is the only conflated item.

    I mean you can read, can't you.
    @TOPPING - the BBC report the paper headlines like that every single day. See here: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cpml2v678pxt&ved=2ahUKEwihjKKQquqIAxVdVUEAHTP1IeAQFnoECAcQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1_gZ2gfZg9PnTng8tbZ3gP

    NigelB is not the twat here. It's you.

    (Apologies for the long link)
    Seems twattishness is afoot on PB this morning. You and Nigel can go skipping twattishly into the sunset.

    It was a funny and weird presentation of the "Most Read" but you and Nige are having some kind of special moment about it. Good luck to you both.
    It's not. This has been demonstrated to you. You don't have the grace or temperament to recognise your mistake and instead called someone a twat.

    Nice one.
    Twat.
    Oh goody, a quiet Monday morning talking about (if misspelling) Orcadian airfields of the Fleet Air Arm.
    I thought it was all going to kick off over the Network Rail funding model but no.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    kjh said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    There is absolutely no way of predicting the next GE especially with the talentless individuals seeking election to conservative leader

    I very much doubt Farage will be around in 5 years but even if he is we are likely to remain a deeply divided and divisive country

    Badenoch car crash maternity comments, followed by the equally absurd comments by Jenrick about the Star of David should make every decent conservative recoil at the thought of either leading the party
    My money would be on a LD-Con-Reform-DUP coalition as has become popular across Europe. Right of centre parties preferring the fallacy that they can control the far right element rather than compromise across the centre.
    It looks like being a tightly fought contest between Jenrick and Badenoch as to which can self-sabotage their support among the MPs and lose the nomination.
    If the LDs went into coalition with either Reform or the DUP I would be off tout de suite.
    Purely as a thought experiment, what if it were purely to legislate in PR, and then hold an immediate election ?
    There are, of course, plenty of practical reasons why that might not be a workable idea, but in principle ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Torys need to decide if they want to defeat the extreme/populist right or become the extreme/populist right.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487

    Taz said:

    Alcohol prices up in Scotland today due to MUP up to 65p

    Well done SNP, a winning policy. Even though alcohol related deaths increased when they promised the introduction of MUP would see them fall the policy is a winner as its advocates have said.

    Meanwhile

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-61710564

    Doesn't higher supermarket alcohol prices in Scotland mean that the supermarkets can keep their prices lower in England.

    IIRC wine prices haven't increased for over a decade (if you use the regular 25% discount for six) and its not difficult to buy 500ml beer for £1.
    The recent changes to alcohol duty have has an unfortunate side effect - to keep wine down to £5 (say, big cheap brand like Isla Negra) or £5.50 (say, my previous daily drinker Waitrose Italian Red), the alcoholic strength has been reduced from 12.5% to 10.5%. Fine as far as it goes, but to make up for the lack of body that results, they've been increasing the residual sugar levels.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited September 30
    theProle said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    There is absolutely no way of predicting the next GE especially with the talentless individuals seeking election to conservative leader

    I very much doubt Farage will be around in 5 years but even if he is we are likely to remain a deeply divided and divisive country

    Badenoch car crash maternity comments, followed by the equally absurd comments by Jenrick about the Star of David should make every decent conservative recoil at the thought of either leading the party
    I honestly just don't see what was wrong with her thoughts on maternity pay. Are we saying this is a policy area where no one can question the costs or the length of time or the regulations on business?

    Her comment that basically women had more babies before maternity pay was crass and shows she's not ready for LOTO but I don't think it was that utterly bad.

    It might have been unwise in the middle of a contest but given the profile of the membership I doubt it.
    She’s not totally wrong, but as ever the bigger issue is the cost of housing that makes it impossible for many couples to live on one salary while they have pre-school children.
    Or alternatively it is both couples doing paid work that has had an impact on increasing house prices so much
    It's both. House prices have risen with the existence of many more dual incomes, and we have far more duel income families than we used to because house prices have risen so much. But all of that is only because housing demand is very inelastic and supply very tightly constrained.

    If we did what we can to reduce demand (net zero migration) and un-constrain supply (make planning permission far less difficult to get, dial back building regs so build costs aren't so sky high), then house prices would drop (at least in real terms), and thus the pressure on couples to earn two fulltime wages would fall too. Which in turn would almost certainly do more to encourage people to have kids than more maternity pay.
    And there would be follow on economic effects from people having money to spend (or even invest!!!!!!) on other things than housing.....
  • Atlassian boss on why their competitor to Slack failed. 60-second video.
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/90bnrC4IhKU
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    The helpful political news for them is that at least in numbers terms absolute net migration is inevitably going to come down over the next couple of years, purely as a function of maths.

    Possible that small boat crossings decline too, as it doesn't seem to have a particularly big summer in the Med this year so the pipeline for next summer might be down. Certainly the numbers in the latter part of this season have been substantially down on earlier in the year. I doubt that has anything to do with the change of government, but it's optically convenient.

    Question is whether anti-elite populism keeps surging regardless. It's not all about immigration after all. Partly that is in Labour's gift: they need to give people hope and a bit of optimism.
    The real objection of the far right is not only to immigration present and future, it is to migration that has already happened. Once migration slows down (if it does) then the question of whether the far right turns its attention to migration past is important.
    “Remigration” is the term the Far Right uses, for this

    I reckon this ugly idea is going to enter the mainstream of politics, via the rise of the Far Right parties across Europe. eg Austria yesterday. Once these parties start actually winning elections, the dam breaks

    The far right gets about 35% of the vote across Europe. This is probably a ceiling for the moment. In normal politics people would be forming coalitions with them (NL the exception )
    but left \centrists\ soft right are having a boycott.

    In Saxony we have the odd spectacle of the CDU refusing to go in to coalition with "the heirs to Hitler" but quite content to fom a government with "the heirs to Stalin". Who of course murdered many more people.

    How long this will continue who knows. But we are getting to elections where something will have to break.
    Merz is more rightwing than Merkel as CDU Federal leader, he may do a deal with the SPD or Greens over the AfD (even if his preferred coalition partner would be the FDP). I suspect he would draw the line at doing a deal including Linke or the BSW over the AfD
  • agingjb2agingjb2 Posts: 112
    Didn't Johnson go because he lost the support of half of the people he gave jobs to? Not backbenchers; not Tory members; not voters.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423
    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    I find some of the tube stations in London pretty scary too, sardines right up to the platform edge.

    In today's 'elf and safety, kinda astonishing it's allowed to happen.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Conservative Party Conference begins in earnest tomorrow.

    Until now, I have refrained from intervening in the upcoming leadership election — but the time has come.

    [THREAD]
    Kemi Badenoch has spent weeks positioning herself as tough on immigration.

    But in 2018 she campaigned in Parliament to increase legal migration, and was the biggest champion for students bringing in dependents.

    I don't believe a word that she says on anything.

    Formerly a man that believed in nothing, Robert Jenrick now pitches himself as the great hardliner.

    This is almost certainly done for political gain and not out of conviction. He will divide the party.

    I doubt that Jenrick will last long if he wins.'
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432712332554701
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432714727543232
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432717147578636
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1840432720037732617

    Nigel Farage telling the Conservative Party no matter how much you pander, I will out-pander you every time.
    That's probably right. Unless I have him completely wrong Farage is never going to place himself in a position where he has to take some responsibility for governing the country.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    There is absolutely no way of predicting the next GE especially with the talentless individuals seeking election to conservative leader

    I very much doubt Farage will be around in 5 years but even if he is we are likely to remain a deeply divided and divisive country

    Badenoch car crash maternity comments, followed by the equally absurd comments by Jenrick about the Star of David should make every decent conservative recoil at the thought of either leading the party
    My money would be on a LD-Con-Reform-DUP coalition as has become popular across Europe. Right of centre parties preferring the fallacy that they can control the far right element rather than compromise across the centre.
    It looks like being a tightly fought contest between Jenrick and Badenoch as to which can self-sabotage their support among the MPs and lose the nomination.
    If the LDs went into coalition with either Reform or the DUP I would be off tout de suite.
    Purely as a thought experiment, what if it were purely to legislate in PR, and then hold an immediate election ?
    There are, of course, plenty of practical reasons why that might not be a workable idea, but in principle ?
    Yep I am ok with that in principle. But as you say it is probably not workable due to the time they would have to govern as a coalition.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,306
    Jonathan said:

    Torys need to decide if they want to defeat the extreme/populist right or become the extreme/populist right.

    Which policies of Reform would you classify as extreme right?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    kjh said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    There is absolutely no way of predicting the next GE especially with the talentless individuals seeking election to conservative leader

    I very much doubt Farage will be around in 5 years but even if he is we are likely to remain a deeply divided and divisive country

    Badenoch car crash maternity comments, followed by the equally absurd comments by Jenrick about the Star of David should make every decent conservative recoil at the thought of either leading the party
    My money would be on a LD-Con-Reform-DUP coalition as has become popular across Europe. Right of centre parties preferring the fallacy that they can control the far right element rather than compromise across the centre.
    It looks like being a tightly fought contest between Jenrick and Badenoch as to which can self-sabotage their support among the MPs and lose the nomination.
    If the LDs went into coalition with either Reform or the DUP I would be off tout de suite.
    We need to keep an eye on the figures for SPLORG. If they go over 50% it will be interesting. SF/DUP/LD/Reform coaltion here we come.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    There is absolutely no way of predicting the next GE especially with the talentless individuals seeking election to conservative leader

    I very much doubt Farage will be around in 5 years but even if he is we are likely to remain a deeply divided and divisive country

    Badenoch car crash maternity comments, followed by the equally absurd comments by Jenrick about the Star of David should make every decent conservative recoil at the thought of either leading the party
    My money would be on a LD-Con-Reform-DUP coalition as has become popular across Europe. Right of centre parties preferring the fallacy that they can control the far right element rather than compromise across the centre.
    It looks like being a tightly fought contest between Jenrick and Badenoch as to which can self-sabotage their support among the MPs and lose the nomination.
    If the LDs went into coalition with either Reform or the DUP I would be off tout de suite.
    Purely as a thought experiment, what if it were purely to legislate in PR, and then hold an immediate election ?
    There are, of course, plenty of practical reasons why that might not be a workable idea, but in principle ?
    Yep I am ok with that in principle. But as you say it is probably not workable due to the time they would have to govern as a coalition.
    If PR is ever to happen, of course, something at least analogous to that will need to happen - and you also need to think about what the immediate aftermath of its introduction is likely to be like.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Rosie Duffield LOL

    I had fun looking at the freebies she had received. She received money from the Nadhim Zahawi via YouGov.


    clean as a whistle, only one so far to show any principles against the troughers
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    Jonathan said:

    Torys need to decide if they want to defeat the extreme/populist right or become the extreme/populist right.

    Which policies of Reform would you classify as extreme right?
    There are none. Reform is populist, not extreme. The dangers of populism are more subtle than the dangers of overt extremes, since populism relies on the attractiveness of simple solutions to complex realities. (To be fair to the hard pressed new government, useless though they have been, they did not rely on populism). Extremeists wait in the wings.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:
    How many members does the party now have ?
    Shrivelling (the number rather than the members of course) in Scotland. I read that in the 90s the SCons had a membership of over 30k, mind-blowing in a decade when they returned zero MPs.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/24614945.scottish-conservatives-fewer-members-alba-party/
    They had good social clubs TUD, cheap booze.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    edited September 30
    malcolmg said:

    Rosie Duffield LOL

    I had fun looking at the freebies she had received. She received money from the Nadhim Zahawi via YouGov.


    clean as a whistle, only one so far to show any principles against the troughers
    Politicians completing opinion polls is probably one reason they are inaccurate.

    ETA activists too. PB threads used to be dominated by posters comparing notes on which polls they'd just completed.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    There was a reasonably-far-through-the-sausage-machine plan on the table to four-track the Castlefield Corridor (the section from Piccadilly through Oxford Road and Deansgate to South West Manchester), adding a platform 15 and 16 at Piccadilly. This is, if memory serves, the most congested two-track section in the country. Unfortunately heels were dragged and where there was ample space 15 years ago, after Manchester's recent building boom there are now a lot of skyscrapers right up against the railway, and no space to do it.

    Which shows the point of doing the thing while you can, because it never gets easier and the solution in the future is always both harder and more urgent than the solution in the present *cough HS2*.
    I cut a bit out of my original reply where I said that the actual approach for Manchester is going to have to be a through Tunnel (ala Bologna and elsewhere) with multiple underground platforms at Manchester for through services.

    Manchester basically needs a combined plan for HS2 and NPR because both are unavoidable projects if we want to fix the economy...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly, a tragedy waiting to happen.
    In both cases, it needs multiple passenger complaints to HSE with requests for an investigation. It will probably only happen after someone is killed. 😟
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    F1: while my race bets have been poor (not helped by all the bad luck I avoided in flukey 2023 arriving to this season), the season bets have been rather better. I backed Norris at 29 for the title, can be hedged at 2.5, and the 4 on McLaren for the title has fallen to 1.05 (which might still be worth backing although I loathe odds that short).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    There is absolutely no way of predicting the next GE especially with the talentless individuals seeking election to conservative leader

    I very much doubt Farage will be around in 5 years but even if he is we are likely to remain a deeply divided and divisive country

    Badenoch car crash maternity comments, followed by the equally absurd comments by Jenrick about the Star of David should make every decent conservative recoil at the thought of either leading the party
    My money would be on a LD-Con-Reform-DUP coalition as has become popular across Europe. Right of centre parties preferring the fallacy that they can control the far right element rather than compromise across the centre.
    It looks like being a tightly fought contest between Jenrick and Badenoch as to which can self-sabotage their support among the MPs and lose the nomination.
    If the LDs went into coalition with either Reform or the DUP I would be off tout de suite.
    Purely as a thought experiment, what if it were purely to legislate in PR, and then hold an immediate election ?
    There are, of course, plenty of practical reasons why that might not be a workable idea, but in principle ?
    Yep I am ok with that in principle. But as you say it is probably not workable due to the time they would have to govern as a coalition.
    If PR is ever to happen, of course, something at least analogous to that will need to happen - and you also need to think about what the immediate aftermath of its introduction is likely to be like.
    Most likely an electorate that votes hard against those imposing the change and a second election.

    Leading to the likes of Tommy Robinson and George Galloway sitting as MPs, alongside dozens of their fellow travellers on the political extremes. We’d have a Just Stop Oil Party, a Proud Boys Party, and a Gaza First Party.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,982
    Cookie said:

    TOPPING said:

    Super weird "Most Read" section of the BBC website. Everything gets its own story apart from Badenoch and Israel.


    I lolled. Even the most insane CiF articles would struggle to conflate the two.
    Duh, it's the summary of newspaper front pages - are they supposed to make a separate web page per newspaper?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,695
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    There is absolutely no way of predicting the next GE especially with the talentless individuals seeking election to conservative leader

    I very much doubt Farage will be around in 5 years but even if he is we are likely to remain a deeply divided and divisive country

    Badenoch car crash maternity comments, followed by the equally absurd comments by Jenrick about the Star of David should make every decent conservative recoil at the thought of either leading the party
    My money would be on a LD-Con-Reform-DUP coalition as has become popular across Europe. Right of centre parties preferring the fallacy that they can control the far right element rather than compromise across the centre.
    It looks like being a tightly fought contest between Jenrick and Badenoch as to which can self-sabotage their support among the MPs and lose the nomination.
    If the LDs went into coalition with either Reform or the DUP I would be off tout de suite.
    Purely as a thought experiment, what if it were purely to legislate in PR, and then hold an immediate election ?
    There are, of course, plenty of practical reasons why that might not be a workable idea, but in principle ?
    Yep I am ok with that in principle. But as you say it is probably not workable due to the time they would have to govern as a coalition.
    If PR is ever to happen, of course, something at least analogous to that will need to happen - and you also need to think about what the immediate aftermath of its introduction is likely to be like.
    Good point as the aftermath is likely to be dramatic in terms of the parties that will evolve from it, but that will take time I think, so I suspect the first election will have parties as now if called soon after the change, but I suspect that after that the parties will all breakup and new parties formed along the lines of Communist, Socialist, Social Democrat, Liberal, Centre Right, Popularist, Green, Fascist. Maybe not Communist or Fascist.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Taz said:

    Alcohol prices up in Scotland today due to MUP up to 65p

    Well done SNP, a winning policy. Even though alcohol related deaths increased when they promised the introduction of MUP would see them fall the policy is a winner as its advocates have said.

    Meanwhile

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-61710564

    Doesn't higher supermarket alcohol prices in Scotland mean that the supermarkets can keep their prices lower in England.

    IIRC wine prices haven't increased for over a decade (if you use the regular 25% discount for six) and its not difficult to buy 500ml beer for £1.
    The minimum alcohol price increase won’t affect the price of a decent bottle of wine, or a pint of beer in the pub, which, hopefully, will encourage people to go to the pub instead of drinking at home. I’m not bothered if it makes multipacks of piss like Tennents or Bud Lite dearer. The initial minimum price law practically wiped out sales of stuff like White Lightning in Scotland. I don’t see that as a bad thing. Where I disagree with the policy is that the supermarkets benefit from the higher margins, not the Government.
    Exactly , teh money should have been ringfenced to help the alkies or their families.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    Forget any ideas of a coalition with Reform.

    A rabble of malcontents is incapable of doing any form of governing.

    Any attempt would fall apart quicker that the Truss government.
    If Badenoch or Jenrick are elected Tory leader a Reform and Tory deal is very likely, if Tugendhat or Cleverly are elected it isn't. Regardless of what such a government may look like
    So Badenoch Jenrick = chance of getting back in to government
    Cleverly Tugendhat = hello wilderness
    Badenoch or Jenrick's only chance of getting back in to government would be on Farage's terms, it would be Farage dictating terms to them for his support.

    Cleverly and Tugendhat however could get back into government on their own terms, as they could win an overall majority if Starmer's government is unpopular enough
    Wilderness here you come.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,583
    sarissa said:

    Cookie said:

    TOPPING said:

    Super weird "Most Read" section of the BBC website. Everything gets its own story apart from Badenoch and Israel.


    I lolled. Even the most insane CiF articles would struggle to conflate the two.
    Duh, it's the summary of newspaper front pages - are they supposed to make a separate web page per newspaper?
    Yes, we've been through this already and Topping has already fallen out with Nigel about it. It was nothing more than an odd headline - I didn't click on it (it was an image) and I don't think we need to read anything into it - I accept that there is a reason for it. But the apparent juxtaposition made me laugh. I'd suggest 'newspaper headlines' might be a more helpful link label.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why did Kemi even get involved in the maternity pay thing?

    Seems an odd and random subject to raise in the middle of a leadership campaign? Perhaps she doesn't really want to become LOTO?

    She’s not very good, I did warn you, she’s like Corbyn, apparently it is a smear to use her own words against her.
    She’s a mix of interesting and lightweight

    Question for Tories is: would she grow in the job, gain some wisdom, or be a cute black William Hague (elevated far too young)

    I suspect the latter, unfortunately. But if the Tories fancy a gamble, that might just pay off: she’s the one
    A total DUD
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,583
    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    There was a reasonably-far-through-the-sausage-machine plan on the table to four-track the Castlefield Corridor (the section from Piccadilly through Oxford Road and Deansgate to South West Manchester), adding a platform 15 and 16 at Piccadilly. This is, if memory serves, the most congested two-track section in the country. Unfortunately heels were dragged and where there was ample space 15 years ago, after Manchester's recent building boom there are now a lot of skyscrapers right up against the railway, and no space to do it.

    Which shows the point of doing the thing while you can, because it never gets easier and the solution in the future is always both harder and more urgent than the solution in the present *cough HS2*.
    I cut a bit out of my original reply where I said that the actual approach for Manchester is going to have to be a through Tunnel (ala Bologna and elsewhere) with multiple underground platforms at Manchester for through services.

    Manchester basically needs a combined plan for HS2 and NPR because both are unavoidable projects if we want to fix the economy...
    Yes, and Manchester is very much in favour of this being an underground solution (DfT originally opposed an underground station in Manchester for high speed rail, but had made 'well, perhaps' noises of late in relation to NPR).

    Even this though will not address the current issues relating to Central Manchester capacity on the existing network - which in the absence of doubling the Castlefield Corridor requires another underground alignment (separate from HS2/NPR).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    kyf_100 said:

    Taz said:

    Alcohol prices up in Scotland today due to MUP up to 65p

    Well done SNP, a winning policy. Even though alcohol related deaths increased when they promised the introduction of MUP would see them fall the policy is a winner as its advocates have said.

    Meanwhile

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-61710564

    Doesn't higher supermarket alcohol prices in Scotland mean that the supermarkets can keep their prices lower in England.

    IIRC wine prices haven't increased for over a decade (if you use the regular 25% discount for six) and its not difficult to buy 500ml beer for £1.
    The minimum alcohol price increase won’t affect the price of a decent bottle of wine, or a pint of beer in the pub, which, hopefully, will encourage people to go to the pub instead of drinking at home. I’m not bothered if it makes multipacks of piss like Tennents or Bud Lite dearer. The initial minimum price law practically wiped out sales of stuff like White Lightning in Scotland. I don’t see that as a bad thing. Where I disagree with the policy is that the supermarkets benefit from the higher margins, not the Government.
    Look at how benzo (valium and related drugs) use - and deaths from said drugs - rocketed in Scotland in the aftermath of minimum unit pricing.

    A £2.50 can of spesh, or a 20p knock off pill.

    Plus, as they both affect the same receptors in the brain, they potentiate each other, i.e. you can have one 20p pill and it will make the effects of a single can £2.50 can much stronger.

    Source: https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/minimum-alcohol-pricing-has-driven-people-to-street-drugs-say-experts-8t5z8tsf9
    I believe Benzo use and associated deaths have increased in England. What has caused that?
    Scotland no doubt
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    There is absolutely no way of predicting the next GE especially with the talentless individuals seeking election to conservative leader

    I very much doubt Farage will be around in 5 years but even if he is we are likely to remain a deeply divided and divisive country

    Badenoch car crash maternity comments, followed by the equally absurd comments by Jenrick about the Star of David should make every decent conservative recoil at the thought of either leading the party
    My money would be on a LD-Con-Reform-DUP coalition as has become popular across Europe. Right of centre parties preferring the fallacy that they can control the far right element rather than compromise across the centre.
    It looks like being a tightly fought contest between Jenrick and Badenoch as to which can self-sabotage their support among the MPs and lose the nomination.
    If the LDs went into coalition with either Reform or the DUP I would be off tout de suite.
    Purely as a thought experiment, what if it were purely to legislate in PR, and then hold an immediate election ?
    There are, of course, plenty of practical reasons why that might not be a workable idea, but in principle ?
    Yep I am ok with that in principle. But as you say it is probably not workable due to the time they would have to govern as a coalition.
    If PR is ever to happen, of course, something at least analogous to that will need to happen - and you also need to think about what the immediate aftermath of its introduction is likely to be like.
    Good point as the aftermath is likely to be dramatic in terms of the parties that will evolve from it, but that will take time I think, so I suspect the first election will have parties as now if called soon after the change, but I suspect that after that the parties will all breakup and new parties formed along the lines of Communist, Socialist, Social Democrat, Liberal, Centre Right, Popularist, Green, Fascist. Maybe not Communist or Fascist.
    I think it would be the other way around. Over time things would settle down, but in the immediate aftermath millions will take the opportunity to vote for communists and fascists.

    Look to the UKGE in Scotland 2015 for an example, where in the aftermath of the referendum there was a very sharp swing to the SNP.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,316
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    The helpful political news for them is that at least in numbers terms absolute net migration is inevitably going to come down over the next couple of years, purely as a function of maths.

    Possible that small boat crossings decline too, as it doesn't seem to have a particularly big summer in the Med this year so the pipeline for next summer might be down. Certainly the numbers in the latter part of this season have been substantially down on earlier in the year. I doubt that has anything to do with the change of government, but it's optically convenient.

    Question is whether anti-elite populism keeps surging regardless. It's not all about immigration after all. Partly that is in Labour's gift: they need to give people hope and a bit of optimism.
    The real objection of the far right is not only to immigration present and future, it is to migration that has already happened. Once migration slows down (if it does) then the question of whether the far right turns its attention to migration past is important.
    “Remigration” is the term the Far Right uses, for this

    I reckon this ugly idea is going to enter the mainstream of politics, via the rise of the Far Right parties across Europe. eg Austria yesterday. Once these parties start actually winning elections, the dam breaks

    The far right gets about 35% of the vote across Europe. This is probably a ceiling for the moment. In normal politics people would be forming coalitions with them (NL the exception )
    but left \centrists\ soft right are having a boycott.

    In Saxony we have the odd spectacle of the CDU refusing to go in to coalition with "the heirs to Hitler" but quite content to fom a government with "the heirs to Stalin". Who of course murdered many more people.

    How long this will continue who knows. But we are getting to elections where something will have to break.
    Merz is more rightwing than Merkel as CDU Federal leader, he may do a deal with the SPD or Greens over the AfD (even if his preferred coalition partner would be the FDP). I suspect he would draw the line at doing a deal including Linke or the BSW over the AfD
    What kind of government can he form ? It all comes down to the electoral arithmetic. Merz will crack and do a deal with the BSW if he has to. A conservative communist alliance. Its insane.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    S Korea's new bunker buster missile is enormous.
    Likely designed to make the rocket man realise he wouldn't survive a first strike, without S Korea having to go nuclear.

    Hyunmoo-V was fully revealed along with other new variants of Hyunmoo series missiles just before the parade.
    This almost ICBM class bizarre ballistic missile that most destructive conventional missile ever created is 36tons of total weight and equipped with 8~9tons of specially designed warhead..

    https://x.com/mason_8718/status/1840652747428987265
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,891
    agingjb2 said:

    Didn't Johnson go because he lost the support of half of the people he gave jobs to? Not backbenchers; not Tory members; not voters.

    BoZo discovered that if you lie to all the people all the time, eventually they will tell you where to stick it
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    There was a reasonably-far-through-the-sausage-machine plan on the table to four-track the Castlefield Corridor (the section from Piccadilly through Oxford Road and Deansgate to South West Manchester), adding a platform 15 and 16 at Piccadilly. This is, if memory serves, the most congested two-track section in the country. Unfortunately heels were dragged and where there was ample space 15 years ago, after Manchester's recent building boom there are now a lot of skyscrapers right up against the railway, and no space to do it.

    Which shows the point of doing the thing while you can, because it never gets easier and the solution in the future is always both harder and more urgent than the solution in the present *cough HS2*.
    I cut a bit out of my original reply where I said that the actual approach for Manchester is going to have to be a through Tunnel (ala Bologna and elsewhere) with multiple underground platforms at Manchester for through services.

    Manchester basically needs a combined plan for HS2 and NPR because both are unavoidable projects if we want to fix the economy...
    Yes, and Manchester is very much in favour of this being an underground solution (DfT originally opposed an underground station in Manchester for high speed rail, but had made 'well, perhaps' noises of late in relation to NPR).

    Even this though will not address the current issues relating to Central Manchester capacity on the existing network - which in the absence of doubling the Castlefield Corridor requires another underground alignment (separate from HS2/NPR).
    I really wouldn't want multiple alignments underground in Manchester because that would probably scupper any chance of a proper metro long term.

    Best to have a single cross city route and then solve the connection issues at a ground level outside of Manchester.
  • Nigelb said:

    S Korea's new bunker buster missile is enormous.
    Likely designed to make the rocket man realise he wouldn't survive a first strike, without S Korea having to go nuclear.

    Hyunmoo-V was fully revealed along with other new variants of Hyunmoo series missiles just before the parade.
    This almost ICBM class bizarre ballistic missile that most destructive conventional missile ever created is 36tons of total weight and equipped with 8~9tons of specially designed warhead..

    https://x.com/mason_8718/status/1840652747428987265

    To think the mother of all bombs weighs 11 tons.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-43/B_MOAB
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,889
    kjh said:

    Dopermean said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    It is certainly not impossible the next general election could be a hung parliament with Jenrick forming a coalition government with Farage and Reform. More likely though would be a Labour minority government with LD support
    There is absolutely no way of predicting the next GE especially with the talentless individuals seeking election to conservative leader

    I very much doubt Farage will be around in 5 years but even if he is we are likely to remain a deeply divided and divisive country

    Badenoch car crash maternity comments, followed by the equally absurd comments by Jenrick about the Star of David should make every decent conservative recoil at the thought of either leading the party
    My money would be on a LD-Con-Reform-DUP coalition as has become popular across Europe. Right of centre parties preferring the fallacy that they can control the far right element rather than compromise across the centre.
    It looks like being a tightly fought contest between Jenrick and Badenoch as to which can self-sabotage their support among the MPs and lose the nomination.
    If the LDs went into coalition with either Reform or the DUP I would be off tout de suite.
    I think almost all of us would.... So we can discount that possibility.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why did Kemi even get involved in the maternity pay thing?

    Seems an odd and random subject to raise in the middle of a leadership campaign? Perhaps she doesn't really want to become LOTO?

    She’s not very good, I did warn you, she’s like Corbyn, apparently it is a smear to use her own words against her.
    She’s a mix of interesting and lightweight

    Question for Tories is: would she grow in the job, gain some wisdom, or be a cute black William Hague (elevated far too young)

    I suspect the latter, unfortunately. But if the Tories fancy a gamble, that might just pay off: she’s the one
    A total DUD
    Nah. That's Jenrick.

    She's a risk. Could work. Might not. She'll certainly make an impact one way or the other.

    The much safer choices are, of course, Cleverly and Tugendhat. But they don't appear to have a chance in a face-off with Jenrick. So the "sensible" course would be Kemi.

    UNLESS the party conference throws things, as it did in 2005, with Cameron emerging on the basis of his walkabout.

    Failing that, the main talking point is whether the Tug/Cleverly MP supporters prefer to keep backing their men, or whether stopping Jenrick is the priority, in which case they transfer to Kemi. We'll see.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    There was a reasonably-far-through-the-sausage-machine plan on the table to four-track the Castlefield Corridor (the section from Piccadilly through Oxford Road and Deansgate to South West Manchester), adding a platform 15 and 16 at Piccadilly. This is, if memory serves, the most congested two-track section in the country. Unfortunately heels were dragged and where there was ample space 15 years ago, after Manchester's recent building boom there are now a lot of skyscrapers right up against the railway, and no space to do it.

    Which shows the point of doing the thing while you can, because it never gets easier and the solution in the future is always both harder and more urgent than the solution in the present *cough HS2*.
    I cut a bit out of my original reply where I said that the actual approach for Manchester is going to have to be a through Tunnel (ala Bologna and elsewhere) with multiple underground platforms at Manchester for through services.

    Manchester basically needs a combined plan for HS2 and NPR because both are unavoidable projects if we want to fix the economy...
    Absolutely. The Manchester tunnel is justified by the both Northern Powerhouse and HS2 using it. Which is why I would prioritise it over the Euston link. Accept Old Oak Common will be the terminus station for London for the next twenty to thirty years. Add extra platforms at that station (there's space for them) and put more capacity onto the Elizabeth Line
  • Jonathan said:

    Torys need to decide if they want to defeat the extreme/populist right or become the extreme/populist right.

    Import Reform, become Reform.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    Nigelb said:

    S Korea's new bunker buster missile is enormous.
    Likely designed to make the rocket man realise he wouldn't survive a first strike, without S Korea having to go nuclear.

    Hyunmoo-V was fully revealed along with other new variants of Hyunmoo series missiles just before the parade.
    This almost ICBM class bizarre ballistic missile that most destructive conventional missile ever created is 36tons of total weight and equipped with 8~9tons of specially designed warhead..

    https://x.com/mason_8718/status/1840652747428987265

    To think the mother of all bombs weighs 11 tons.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-43/B_MOAB
    And wasn't made to travel at Mach10.
    Most of the warhead is likely heavy metal, designed to penetrate very deep underground.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,118
    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    There was a reasonably-far-through-the-sausage-machine plan on the table to four-track the Castlefield Corridor (the section from Piccadilly through Oxford Road and Deansgate to South West Manchester), adding a platform 15 and 16 at Piccadilly. This is, if memory serves, the most congested two-track section in the country. Unfortunately heels were dragged and where there was ample space 15 years ago, after Manchester's recent building boom there are now a lot of skyscrapers right up against the railway, and no space to do it.

    Which shows the point of doing the thing while you can, because it never gets easier and the solution in the future is always both harder and more urgent than the solution in the present *cough HS2*.
    I cut a bit out of my original reply where I said that the actual approach for Manchester is going to have to be a through Tunnel (ala Bologna and elsewhere) with multiple underground platforms at Manchester for through services.

    Manchester basically needs a combined plan for HS2 and NPR because both are unavoidable projects if we want to fix the economy...
    Absolutely. The Manchester tunnel is justified by the both Northern Powerhouse and HS2 using it. Which is why I would prioritise it over the Euston link. Accept Old Oak Common will be the terminus station for London for the next twenty to thirty years. Add extra platforms at that station (there's space for them) and put more capacity onto the Elizabeth Line
    My prediction is that "add platforms at OOC and increase Liz line capacity", i.e. bugger about with the scope and plans yet again, would cost more and take longer than just doing the thing we planned to do from the start.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why did Kemi even get involved in the maternity pay thing?

    Seems an odd and random subject to raise in the middle of a leadership campaign? Perhaps she doesn't really want to become LOTO?

    She’s not very good, I did warn you, she’s like Corbyn, apparently it is a smear to use her own words against her.
    She’s a mix of interesting and lightweight

    Question for Tories is: would she grow in the job, gain some wisdom, or be a cute black William Hague (elevated far too young)

    I suspect the latter, unfortunately. But if the Tories fancy a gamble, that might just pay off: she’s the one
    A total DUD
    Nah. That's Jenrick.

    She's a risk. Could work. Might not. She'll certainly make an impact one way or the other.

    The much safer choices are, of course, Cleverly and Tugendhat. But they don't appear to have a chance in a face-off with Jenrick. So the "sensible" course would be Kemi.

    UNLESS the party conference throws things, as it did in 2005, with Cameron emerging on the basis of his walkabout.

    Failing that, the main talking point is whether the Tug/Cleverly MP supporters prefer to keep backing their men, or whether stopping Jenrick is the priority, in which case they transfer to Kemi. We'll see.
    Whoever will be a stopgap fro sure , none have any charisma or talent. Tories need to find a new Messiah in the desert.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    Nigelb said:

    S Korea's new bunker buster missile is enormous.
    Likely designed to make the rocket man realise he wouldn't survive a first strike, without S Korea having to go nuclear.

    Hyunmoo-V was fully revealed along with other new variants of Hyunmoo series missiles just before the parade.
    This almost ICBM class bizarre ballistic missile that most destructive conventional missile ever created is 36tons of total weight and equipped with 8~9tons of specially designed warhead..

    https://x.com/mason_8718/status/1840652747428987265

    Rocket man could face the same fate as those in the Beirut bunker - they survived the blast, but the air circulation system didn't and they died of asphyxiation....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700
    Listening to the 'member question time' at the Tory Conference, a decent range of contributions, but the response from the platform is a speech largely ignoring the responses afaics.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076
    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    There was a reasonably-far-through-the-sausage-machine plan on the table to four-track the Castlefield Corridor (the section from Piccadilly through Oxford Road and Deansgate to South West Manchester), adding a platform 15 and 16 at Piccadilly. This is, if memory serves, the most congested two-track section in the country. Unfortunately heels were dragged and where there was ample space 15 years ago, after Manchester's recent building boom there are now a lot of skyscrapers right up against the railway, and no space to do it.

    Which shows the point of doing the thing while you can, because it never gets easier and the solution in the future is always both harder and more urgent than the solution in the present *cough HS2*.
    I cut a bit out of my original reply where I said that the actual approach for Manchester is going to have to be a through Tunnel (ala Bologna and elsewhere) with multiple underground platforms at Manchester for through services.

    Manchester basically needs a combined plan for HS2 and NPR because both are unavoidable projects if we want to fix the economy...
    Absolutely. The Manchester tunnel is justified by the both Northern Powerhouse and HS2 using it. Which is why I would prioritise it over the Euston link. Accept Old Oak Common will be the terminus station for London for the next twenty to thirty years. Add extra platforms at that station (there's space for them) and put more capacity onto the Elizabeth Line
    Except - there is no spare capacity on the Lizzie Line, especially not for the amount required. (believe me I've already checked that in the past)..

    But this does emphasis the mess we are in,

    Euston needs improvements for capacity reasons at both the mainline and tfl levels. The Tfl work was attached to Crossrail 2, the mainline work attached to HS2 but it really should have been separate projects.

    Manchesters HS2 design was a dead end - as I think all of us who talk about it on here agree HS2 and NPR should be being considered together and designed so that both projects can occur.

    Worth saying Tottenham Court Road's Lizzie Line took so long because all the ground work for Crossrail 2 was done as part of the CR1 project as it was known to be the main interchange point.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487
    pm215 said:

    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    There was a reasonably-far-through-the-sausage-machine plan on the table to four-track the Castlefield Corridor (the section from Piccadilly through Oxford Road and Deansgate to South West Manchester), adding a platform 15 and 16 at Piccadilly. This is, if memory serves, the most congested two-track section in the country. Unfortunately heels were dragged and where there was ample space 15 years ago, after Manchester's recent building boom there are now a lot of skyscrapers right up against the railway, and no space to do it.

    Which shows the point of doing the thing while you can, because it never gets easier and the solution in the future is always both harder and more urgent than the solution in the present *cough HS2*.
    I cut a bit out of my original reply where I said that the actual approach for Manchester is going to have to be a through Tunnel (ala Bologna and elsewhere) with multiple underground platforms at Manchester for through services.

    Manchester basically needs a combined plan for HS2 and NPR because both are unavoidable projects if we want to fix the economy...
    Absolutely. The Manchester tunnel is justified by the both Northern Powerhouse and HS2 using it. Which is why I would prioritise it over the Euston link. Accept Old Oak Common will be the terminus station for London for the next twenty to thirty years. Add extra platforms at that station (there's space for them) and put more capacity onto the Elizabeth Line
    My prediction is that "add platforms at OOC and increase Liz line capacity", i.e. bugger about with the scope and plans yet again, would cost more and take longer than just doing the thing we planned to do from the start.
    Worth noting that, although Euston station is on hold, tunnelling between OOC and Euston is to commence shortly:

    https://www.hs2.org.uk/building-hs2/tunnels/tunnel-drives/euston-tunnel/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    edited September 30

    ‪sundersays.bsky.social‬ ‪@sundersays.bsky.social‬
    ·
    1h
    It is hard to appeal to Reform voters and swing voters at the same time - because Reform voters are simply massive outliers in public attitudes to immigration, in contrast to Conservatives, never mind Con/LD and Con/Lab swing voters

    https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3l5ecjjf7fd2s

    I think there are two ways to bridge that sort of divide.

    1. Actually change a substantial number of people's views, so that the divide is not too large. Two ways of doing that, either change Reform voters into more moderate centre-right voters, or vice versa (which is what Trump achieved in the US).

    2. Face an opponent/issue against which both sets of voters have so much antipathy that they will bury their differences temporarily (again Trump benefited from this facing Hilary Clinton in 2016, as did Johnson twice over in 2019 against Corbyn and the second voters).
  • Leon said:

    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

    For good luck/wishes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    edited September 30
    Leon said:

    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

    A combination of folk memory...
    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0047580/
    ...and cash aversion.

    Also Roman.
    https://www.romanbaths.co.uk/news/making-offering-goddess-21st-century
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Leon said:

    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

    To placate the Gods.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,389
    Badenoch told the BBC last night that she has had "maternity leave" three times.

    Yet according to Guardian blog yesterday Ashcroft's memoire of her says when she was at Spectator and had second child she resigned rather than take maternity leave.

    "She told me she thought it would be unfair to ask us to keep her job open while she was on maternity leave,” Fraser Nelson, the Spectator editor, is quoted in the book as saying."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Good thread on why US polling crosstabs can be highly misleading.
    https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1840424758975824099
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    Leon said:

    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

    Good question.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,583
    edited September 30

    Leon said:

    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

    To placate the Gods.
    True. Throwing valuable objects (particularly metal) into water is old, old magic. And the oldest Gods live in the water (particularly springs - hence, I suppose, the fountain connection.) Archaeological (is it archaeological if you dive rather than dig?) evidence shows that goes back to pre-Roman Britain at least. An echo of this can be found in the return of excalibur to the water.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,891
    Leon said:

    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

    Why did you not ask this question of your latest AI chatbot crush?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Super weird "Most Read" section of the BBC website. Everything gets its own story apart from Badenoch and Israel.


    Super weird that the BBC posts a list of this morning's headlines.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpw5yyjx75po

    Not at all weird that Topping comments on something he hasn't looked at ?
    Twat. It is the only conflated item.

    I mean you can read, can't you.
    Umm. It's an article about what's on the front pages of newspapers.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited September 30
    pm215 said:

    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    There was a reasonably-far-through-the-sausage-machine plan on the table to four-track the Castlefield Corridor (the section from Piccadilly through Oxford Road and Deansgate to South West Manchester), adding a platform 15 and 16 at Piccadilly. This is, if memory serves, the most congested two-track section in the country. Unfortunately heels were dragged and where there was ample space 15 years ago, after Manchester's recent building boom there are now a lot of skyscrapers right up against the railway, and no space to do it.

    Which shows the point of doing the thing while you can, because it never gets easier and the solution in the future is always both harder and more urgent than the solution in the present *cough HS2*.
    I cut a bit out of my original reply where I said that the actual approach for Manchester is going to have to be a through Tunnel (ala Bologna and elsewhere) with multiple underground platforms at Manchester for through services.

    Manchester basically needs a combined plan for HS2 and NPR because both are unavoidable projects if we want to fix the economy...
    Absolutely. The Manchester tunnel is justified by the both Northern Powerhouse and HS2 using it. Which is why I would prioritise it over the Euston link. Accept Old Oak Common will be the terminus station for London for the next twenty to thirty years. Add extra platforms at that station (there's space for them) and put more capacity onto the Elizabeth Line
    My prediction is that "add platforms at OOC and increase Liz line capacity", i.e. bugger about with the scope and plans yet again, would cost more and take longer than just doing the thing we planned to do from the start.
    Compared with a now unachievable original business case it does add cost. This a question of what is higher priority? Sorting out a chronic lack of railway capacity in the Manchester area or improving connections in London? With no dog either way, I would definitely go for Manchester.

    One good thing about Old Oak Common is there is space for more platforms. It shouldn't cost too much in the scheme of things.
    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    There was a reasonably-far-through-the-sausage-machine plan on the table to four-track the Castlefield Corridor (the section from Piccadilly through Oxford Road and Deansgate to South West Manchester), adding a platform 15 and 16 at Piccadilly. This is, if memory serves, the most congested two-track section in the country. Unfortunately heels were dragged and where there was ample space 15 years ago, after Manchester's recent building boom there are now a lot of skyscrapers right up against the railway, and no space to do it.

    Which shows the point of doing the thing while you can, because it never gets easier and the solution in the future is always both harder and more urgent than the solution in the present *cough HS2*.
    I cut a bit out of my original reply where I said that the actual approach for Manchester is going to have to be a through Tunnel (ala Bologna and elsewhere) with multiple underground platforms at Manchester for through services.

    Manchester basically needs a combined plan for HS2 and NPR because both are unavoidable projects if we want to fix the economy...
    Absolutely. The Manchester tunnel is justified by the both Northern Powerhouse and HS2 using it. Which is why I would prioritise it over the Euston link. Accept Old Oak Common will be the terminus station for London for the next twenty to thirty years. Add extra platforms at that station (there's space for them) and put more capacity onto the Elizabeth Line
    Except - there is no spare capacity on the Lizzie Line, especially not for the amount required. (believe me I've already checked that in the past)..

    But this does emphasis the mess we are in,

    Euston needs improvements for capacity reasons at both the mainline and tfl levels. The Tfl work was attached to Crossrail 2, the mainline work attached to HS2 but it really should have been separate projects.

    Manchesters HS2 design was a dead end - as I think all of us who talk about it on here agree HS2 and NPR should be being considered together and designed so that both projects can occur.

    Worth saying Tottenham Court Road's Lizzie Line took so long because all the ground work for Crossrail 2 was done as part of the CR1 project as it was known to be the main interchange point.
    They have the option of buying more trainsets for the Elizabeth Line. They should take that option.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668

    Leon said:

    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

    To placate the Gods.
    IS the correct answer

    We think it’s for fun or luck or whatever, but actually it’s a distant relative of human/animal sacrifice: an offering to the Gods, of something precious

    Consider Celtic warrior chieftains, they found it near impossible to pass by a river without chucking in a valuable sword or a beautiful shield

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battersea_Shield

    Sacrificing precious metal in water: like hurling coins in fountains
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    Afternoon all :)

    Strange how these welfare payments have developed into sacred cows. First, winter fuel allowance, now matenrity pay, the slightest suggestion they are either unnecessary or in need of reform and a bucketload of ordure falls on the person making a suggestion.

    Yet we are happy to continue running a deficit and borrowing at least £100 billion per year which we know is unsupportable. It will have to be substantial tax rises because there is clearly no public stomach for any spending cuts.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    edited September 30
    Mr. Leon, numerous kings, perhaps most famously Attila*, were buried with treasures in temporarily dried riverbeds before the water was allowed to resume its course over them.

    Edited: *if memory serves.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

    To placate the Gods.
    True. Throwing valuable objects (particularly metal) into water is old, old magic. And the oldest Gods live in the water (particularly springs - hence, I suppose, the fountain connection.) Archaeological (is it archaeological if you dive rather than dig?) evidence shows that goes back to pre-Roman Britain at least. An echo of this can be found in the return of excalibur to the water.
    It’s remarkable that we still have these deep, primitive, reflexive religious drives

    Circumcision is just human sacrifice somewhat attenuated with bogus explanations. The Aztecs were much more honest: they used to pierce their penises with maguey thorns. Then offer the bloodied thorns to the Gods of Tenochtitlan

    Scarification, body piercing, tattoos…?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Some info for early voting USA .

    A total of 45,020537 mail ballots have been requested so far .

    Total early votes 426, 298 .

    Of that 213,620 in person early votes .

    212,708 mail in ballots .

    There’s limited data re party registration so far .

    So far and covering just under 80,000 votes :

    Dem 64%
    Rep 19.5%
    None or minor party 16.5%
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

    To placate the Gods.
    IS the correct answer

    We think it’s for fun or luck or whatever, but actually it’s a distant relative of human/animal sacrifice: an offering to the Gods, of something precious

    Consider Celtic warrior chieftains, they found it near impossible to pass by a river without chucking in a valuable sword or a beautiful shield

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battersea_Shield

    Sacrificing precious metal in water: like hurling coins in fountains
    Hope the Gods take shopping trollies round my bit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

    To placate the Gods.
    IS the correct answer

    We think it’s for fun or luck or whatever, but actually it’s a distant relative of human/animal sacrifice: an offering to the Gods, of something precious

    Consider Celtic warrior chieftains, they found it near impossible to pass by a river without chucking in a valuable sword or a beautiful shield

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battersea_Shield

    Sacrificing precious metal in water: like hurling coins in fountains
    Hope the Gods take shopping trollies round my bit.
    Hah. But actually that MIGHT be the same instinct at work… throwing metal in water…
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700
    Leon said:

    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

    You have spare CASH?
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,178
    FF43 said:

    pm215 said:

    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    There was a reasonably-far-through-the-sausage-machine plan on the table to four-track the Castlefield Corridor (the section from Piccadilly through Oxford Road and Deansgate to South West Manchester), adding a platform 15 and 16 at Piccadilly. This is, if memory serves, the most congested two-track section in the country. Unfortunately heels were dragged and where there was ample space 15 years ago, after Manchester's recent building boom there are now a lot of skyscrapers right up against the railway, and no space to do it.

    Which shows the point of doing the thing while you can, because it never gets easier and the solution in the future is always both harder and more urgent than the solution in the present *cough HS2*.
    I cut a bit out of my original reply where I said that the actual approach for Manchester is going to have to be a through Tunnel (ala Bologna and elsewhere) with multiple underground platforms at Manchester for through services.

    Manchester basically needs a combined plan for HS2 and NPR because both are unavoidable projects if we want to fix the economy...
    Absolutely. The Manchester tunnel is justified by the both Northern Powerhouse and HS2 using it. Which is why I would prioritise it over the Euston link. Accept Old Oak Common will be the terminus station for London for the next twenty to thirty years. Add extra platforms at that station (there's space for them) and put more capacity onto the Elizabeth Line
    My prediction is that "add platforms at OOC and increase Liz line capacity", i.e. bugger about with the scope and plans yet again, would cost more and take longer than just doing the thing we planned to do from the start.
    Compared with a now unachievable original business case it does add cost. This a question of what is higher priority? Sorting out a chronic lack of railway capacity in the Manchester area or improving connections in London? With no dog either way, I would definitely go for Manchester.

    One good thing about Old Oak Common is there is space for more platforms. It shouldn't cost too much in the scheme of things.
    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    There was a reasonably-far-through-the-sausage-machine plan on the table to four-track the Castlefield Corridor (the section from Piccadilly through Oxford Road and Deansgate to South West Manchester), adding a platform 15 and 16 at Piccadilly. This is, if memory serves, the most congested two-track section in the country. Unfortunately heels were dragged and where there was ample space 15 years ago, after Manchester's recent building boom there are now a lot of skyscrapers right up against the railway, and no space to do it.

    Which shows the point of doing the thing while you can, because it never gets easier and the solution in the future is always both harder and more urgent than the solution in the present *cough HS2*.
    I cut a bit out of my original reply where I said that the actual approach for Manchester is going to have to be a through Tunnel (ala Bologna and elsewhere) with multiple underground platforms at Manchester for through services.

    Manchester basically needs a combined plan for HS2 and NPR because both are unavoidable projects if we want to fix the economy...
    Absolutely. The Manchester tunnel is justified by the both Northern Powerhouse and HS2 using it. Which is why I would prioritise it over the Euston link. Accept Old Oak Common will be the terminus station for London for the next twenty to thirty years. Add extra platforms at that station (there's space for them) and put more capacity onto the Elizabeth Line
    Except - there is no spare capacity on the Lizzie Line, especially not for the amount required. (believe me I've already checked that in the past)..

    But this does emphasis the mess we are in,

    Euston needs improvements for capacity reasons at both the mainline and tfl levels. The Tfl work was attached to Crossrail 2, the mainline work attached to HS2 but it really should have been separate projects.

    Manchesters HS2 design was a dead end - as I think all of us who talk about it on here agree HS2 and NPR should be being considered together and designed so that both projects can occur.

    Worth saying Tottenham Court Road's Lizzie Line took so long because all the ground work for Crossrail 2 was done as part of the CR1 project as it was known to be the main interchange point.
    They have the option of buying more trainsets for the Elizabeth Line. They should take that option.
    Does that help? If at peak times you can handle say 1 train every 3 mins through the route, and you are already achieving that, ordering further rolling stock is of very little use.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668

    Mr. Leon, numerous kings, perhaps most famously Attila*, were buried with treasures in temporarily dried riverbeds before the water was allowed to resume its course over them.

    Edited: *if memory serves.

    Also buried with multiple concubines and servants. Some buried alive, IIRC

    Brrrr
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Taz said:

    Interesting proposal

    Robert Jenrick has said the Star of David should be displayed at every point of entry to the UK to show “we stand with Israel”.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/robert-jenrick-calls-for-star-of-david-at-every-point-of-entry-to-the-uk/ar-AA1rs8J1?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4d3a85adf87341b8b1c1675f24272084&ei=9

    Jeez pass me the sick bag . He really is a moron .
    They'll elected Jenrick this month and he'll be out in two years.

    I guess they have to go through this stage before neo-Cameron arrives in early 2030s to lead them back to the centre ground and to office.

    Maybe it will be the actual Cameron?

    That depends what happens to Reform. If they continue to gain votes, and pick up some decent council wins or a Westminster byelection, then the next leader after Jenrick might be further to the right.

    I think Jenrick will make it to the next election. He might be a thoroughly lightweight, faux culture warrior type with a few shadows hanging over his past conduct, but he speaks fluently and doesn't seem as incompetent at the political game as everyone seems to assume.
    If I am right and Jenrick goes in two years (and incidentally Seldon wrote a piece yesterday saying he would only last two years) then they may well pick someone more to the radical right in order to take on Reform. Still likely to lose in 2028 and then they might start thinking about the centre ground again.

    But I may well be wrong and @Leon right - England, like rest of europe, about to embrace the radical right and anti-migration populism. Certainly if Labour continue to make a total horlicks of everything they touch then that may well be on the cards.
    The helpful political news for them is that at least in numbers terms absolute net migration is inevitably going to come down over the next couple of years, purely as a function of maths.

    Possible that small boat crossings decline too, as it doesn't seem to have a particularly big summer in the Med this year so the pipeline for next summer might be down. Certainly the numbers in the latter part of this season have been substantially down on earlier in the year. I doubt that has anything to do with the change of government, but it's optically convenient.

    Question is whether anti-elite populism keeps surging regardless. It's not all about immigration after all. Partly that is in Labour's gift: they need to give people hope and a bit of optimism.
    The real objection of the far right is not only to immigration present and future, it is to migration that has already happened. Once migration slows down (if it does) then the question of whether the far right turns its attention to migration past is important.
    “Remigration” is the term the Far Right uses, for this

    I reckon this ugly idea is going to enter the mainstream of politics, via the rise of the Far Right parties across Europe. eg Austria yesterday. Once these parties start actually winning elections, the dam breaks

    The far right gets about 35% of the vote across Europe. This is probably a ceiling for the moment. In normal politics people would be forming coalitions with them (NL the exception )
    but left \centrists\ soft right are having a boycott.

    In Saxony we have the odd spectacle of the CDU refusing to go in to coalition with "the heirs to Hitler" but quite content to fom a government with "the heirs to Stalin". Who of course murdered many more people.

    How long this will continue who knows. But we are getting to elections where something will have to break.
    Merz is more rightwing than Merkel as CDU Federal leader, he may do a deal with the SPD or Greens over the AfD (even if his preferred coalition partner would be the FDP). I suspect he would draw the line at doing a deal including Linke or the BSW over the AfD
    As the CDU's own rules forbid them from going into coalition with the AfD or the Left, neither of those will happen. And there is no question of the CDU working with any of AfD BSW or the Left at the federal level. But at the state level the CDU has already shown that it is willing to work with both the BSW and the Left, but not the AfD. So I would say you are definitely wrong, at least as far as this and the next parliament are concerned.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    Leon said:

    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

    Pagan. Offering/prayer to water gods. Reinforced by Christian culture in which the font is a source of blessing.

    IIRC Salisbury cathedral installed a rather trendy font and then discovered people kept throwing coins into it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,076

    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    At Euston they’ve replaced the main departure boards with adverts and the new departure boards are unreadable unless you’re stood in front of them.
    That's for health and safety reasons - For "reasons" I'm currently awaiting a FOI request about health and safety at Euston and the justification for not providing the details is Terrorism.

    forcing people to crowd around screens to find out what platform their train is on doesn't seem a great plan if you are concerned about terrorism..
  • theProle said:

    FF43 said:

    pm215 said:

    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    There was a reasonably-far-through-the-sausage-machine plan on the table to four-track the Castlefield Corridor (the section from Piccadilly through Oxford Road and Deansgate to South West Manchester), adding a platform 15 and 16 at Piccadilly. This is, if memory serves, the most congested two-track section in the country. Unfortunately heels were dragged and where there was ample space 15 years ago, after Manchester's recent building boom there are now a lot of skyscrapers right up against the railway, and no space to do it.

    Which shows the point of doing the thing while you can, because it never gets easier and the solution in the future is always both harder and more urgent than the solution in the present *cough HS2*.
    I cut a bit out of my original reply where I said that the actual approach for Manchester is going to have to be a through Tunnel (ala Bologna and elsewhere) with multiple underground platforms at Manchester for through services.

    Manchester basically needs a combined plan for HS2 and NPR because both are unavoidable projects if we want to fix the economy...
    Absolutely. The Manchester tunnel is justified by the both Northern Powerhouse and HS2 using it. Which is why I would prioritise it over the Euston link. Accept Old Oak Common will be the terminus station for London for the next twenty to thirty years. Add extra platforms at that station (there's space for them) and put more capacity onto the Elizabeth Line
    My prediction is that "add platforms at OOC and increase Liz line capacity", i.e. bugger about with the scope and plans yet again, would cost more and take longer than just doing the thing we planned to do from the start.
    Compared with a now unachievable original business case it does add cost. This a question of what is higher priority? Sorting out a chronic lack of railway capacity in the Manchester area or improving connections in London? With no dog either way, I would definitely go for Manchester.

    One good thing about Old Oak Common is there is space for more platforms. It shouldn't cost too much in the scheme of things.
    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    AnthonyT said:

    One day there is going to be a political party in this country that isn't run by loons, crooks and which takes women's rights seriously.

    Sadly, we don't yet have that in this country.

    Meanwhile WTF is going on at Euston station?!? That is a tragedy just waiting to happen.

    It’s the same as platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly.
    The issue with both Euston and those platforms is roughly same. Euston was designed at a time when the station only had 1/6th of the current number of trains / passengers..

    As I've said multiple times previously HS2 was badly sold, the speed is a side effect of the capacity improvements but it's the capacity improvements that are essential..
    There was a reasonably-far-through-the-sausage-machine plan on the table to four-track the Castlefield Corridor (the section from Piccadilly through Oxford Road and Deansgate to South West Manchester), adding a platform 15 and 16 at Piccadilly. This is, if memory serves, the most congested two-track section in the country. Unfortunately heels were dragged and where there was ample space 15 years ago, after Manchester's recent building boom there are now a lot of skyscrapers right up against the railway, and no space to do it.

    Which shows the point of doing the thing while you can, because it never gets easier and the solution in the future is always both harder and more urgent than the solution in the present *cough HS2*.
    I cut a bit out of my original reply where I said that the actual approach for Manchester is going to have to be a through Tunnel (ala Bologna and elsewhere) with multiple underground platforms at Manchester for through services.

    Manchester basically needs a combined plan for HS2 and NPR because both are unavoidable projects if we want to fix the economy...
    Absolutely. The Manchester tunnel is justified by the both Northern Powerhouse and HS2 using it. Which is why I would prioritise it over the Euston link. Accept Old Oak Common will be the terminus station for London for the next twenty to thirty years. Add extra platforms at that station (there's space for them) and put more capacity onto the Elizabeth Line
    Except - there is no spare capacity on the Lizzie Line, especially not for the amount required. (believe me I've already checked that in the past)..

    But this does emphasis the mess we are in,

    Euston needs improvements for capacity reasons at both the mainline and tfl levels. The Tfl work was attached to Crossrail 2, the mainline work attached to HS2 but it really should have been separate projects.

    Manchesters HS2 design was a dead end - as I think all of us who talk about it on here agree HS2 and NPR should be being considered together and designed so that both projects can occur.

    Worth saying Tottenham Court Road's Lizzie Line took so long because all the ground work for Crossrail 2 was done as part of the CR1 project as it was known to be the main interchange point.
    They have the option of buying more trainsets for the Elizabeth Line. They should take that option.
    Does that help? If at peak times you can handle say 1 train every 3 mins through the route, and you are already achieving that, ordering further rolling stock is of very little use.
    There's a bit of potential there. At the moment, most of the trains from the Shenfield/Romford branch only go as far west as Paddington. I think lack of trains is the only thing stopping them going a bit further west.

    But yes, the Elizabeth line is pretty full these days.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

    To placate the Gods.
    IS the correct answer

    We think it’s for fun or luck or whatever, but actually it’s a distant relative of human/animal sacrifice: an offering to the Gods, of something precious

    Consider Celtic warrior chieftains, they found it near impossible to pass by a river without chucking in a valuable sword or a beautiful shield

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battersea_Shield

    Sacrificing precious metal in water: like hurling coins in fountains
    Hope the Gods take shopping trollies round my bit.
    Hah. But actually that MIGHT be the same instinct at work… throwing metal in water…
    We paid a visit to Hollywood Cemetery yesterday, and someone had put a penny on the statue of the iron dog. The cemetery had one of the few remaining statues of Jefferson Davis there, tastefully installed on the middle of a mini roundabout. No-one had put a penny on his head.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    edited September 30
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WHY do we throw coins in fountains?

    To placate the Gods.
    IS the correct answer

    We think it’s for fun or luck or whatever, but actually it’s a distant relative of human/animal sacrifice: an offering to the Gods, of something precious

    Consider Celtic warrior chieftains, they found it near impossible to pass by a river without chucking in a valuable sword or a beautiful shield

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battersea_Shield

    Sacrificing precious metal in water: like hurling coins in fountains
    For example - one of the most charming stories of recent years. Note the enthusiasm of the 8 year old

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45753455
This discussion has been closed.