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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories close the gap by 1.4 percent in this week’s PB

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Rather a disturbing post on PPRuNe:

    http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-217.html#post8379802

    "Art Griego 16th Mar 2014, 02:36

    First off, those who aren't PROFESSIONAL PILOTS should keep their insane theories to a minimum. I myself am a retired pilot who flew with a major airline for 32 years.

    But look, airlines these days... some days I'd walk out the cockpit and it looked like a prison riot had taken place. I'm talking cups everywhere, graffiti, and seat-backs which had been slashed with knives somehow. Ridiculous. Trying to get a cup of coffee without lipstick on the rim of the cup was impossible, and that was when the stewardesses weren't busy cooking whatever it is they thought they were cooking. And I can't count the number of times I had to go back and settle some beef between a flight crew member and a passenger, lest we have someone trying to open an emergency exit at 30,000 ft.

    Point being it's obvious that something happened with the pilots, but lets not libel them by delving into their psychology without taking all of this into account. The the poor guys up front just might not have been able to stand the smell of the plane, and theres only so many times you can take being told that the lady in 23F wants a pillow while you're navigating mountains in a fog."
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Photos of orderly and eager voters in Crimea.

    The process is so transparent that even the ballot boxes are made of perspex.

    http://bit.ly/1p0AVi6

    Eck missed a trick here.
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    'Russia attacks Ukraine proper' or has it?

    A problems with the stream of news is both heavy use of local non-independent sourcing that over inflates small events and also have their own skew. In addition use of multiple place names for what is essentially the same location doesn't help.

    As Socrates posted downthread there have been reports circulating for over 24 hours suggesting that Russian forces turned up in a Ukrainian area known as Kherson. Ukrainian sources are confused between suggestions they repelled an assault and reports that the Russian's had seized Strikove, a small town in the area where a power plant is.

    Despite the confusion certainly something that occurred outside of Crimea in Kherson, Ukraine 'proper'. Is it an invasion or is it a defensive move? The area where the Russians turned up happens to have the capacity to strangle the Crimea, its a major source of both power and water resources for the breakaway province. The Ukrainians turn off the upstream tap, Crimea has a problem.

    The Ukrainians have moved forces closer to Crimea, in what appears to be a ring to prevent a breakout. Other Ukrainian forces have set up arcs of defensive positions south and east of the capital, Kiev. Oddly though they don't appear to have boosted forces too dramatically in the restive Eastern Provinces. The reasoning for this could be twofold: 1.no desire to whip up tensions, and 2.They genuinely do expect trouble and have gone for a core defense strategy.

    For Western intelligence, disposition analysis has made drawing conclusions problematic.

    Russia has plenty of forces in Crimea itself but it doesn't look a likely jump off point for a substantive and long term incursion into other areas of Ukraine, Kherson being the obvious exception. In fact their fortifying looks to have a main message to others to stay out of Crimea.

    The concentrations around the Ukrainian border are substantive but not enough to invade AND hold huge territory. As yet there is no clear indication on the appearance of the necessary supporting reserves who 'd be required for a truly large scale invasion. Whats east of Ukraine could potentially seize a few Eastern areas with locally raised support (which is patchy but certainly mustering in a number of provinces).

    Russia has brought some very good kit & units to the party. Its heavy focus on anti aircraft resources in the Crimea and SE border of Ukraine in particular is interesting but can again be seen as defensive as well as offensive. .

    The West expects trouble, it just doesn't know what. Certainly there has been more movement of NATO assets than it appears such as the disappearance of a notable number of air-fueling tankers from their normal bases. The head shed, however, aren't wholly sure what the next move will be but you may be hearing the name of Kherson more. Equally when the referendum goes through it could be the fate of Ukrainian forces in the Crimea that might be the flashpoint.

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AndyJS said:

    Rather a disturbing post on PPRuNe:

    http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-217.html#post8379802

    "Art Griego 16th Mar 2014, 02:36

    First off, those who aren't PROFESSIONAL PILOTS should keep their insane theories to a minimum. I myself am a retired pilot who flew with a major airline for 32 years.

    But look, airlines these days... some days I'd walk out the cockpit and it looked like a prison riot had taken place. I'm talking cups everywhere, graffiti, and seat-backs which had been slashed with knives somehow. Ridiculous. Trying to get a cup of coffee without lipstick on the rim of the cup was impossible, and that was when the stewardesses weren't busy cooking whatever it is they thought they were cooking. And I can't count the number of times I had to go back and settle some beef between a flight crew member and a passenger, lest we have someone trying to open an emergency exit at 30,000 ft.

    Point being it's obvious that something happened with the pilots, but lets not libel them by delving into their psychology without taking all of this into account. The the poor guys up front just might not have been able to stand the smell of the plane, and theres only so many times you can take being told that the lady in 23F wants a pillow while you're navigating mountains in a fog."

    I bet this retired pilot votes UKIP.

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Do you have concerns?

    Osborne would be making a very popular decision if he raised the threshold at which stamp duty is payable. Indeed, if he raised all the thresholds.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    AveryLP said:

    "Speaking ahead of his Budget on Wednesday, Mr Osborne said the government's Help to Buy scheme would also be extended until the end of the decade."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26600689

    Scratches head....

    The only part of Help to Buy which is being extended is the initial stage which is solely targetted at new-builds and first time buyers.

    This part of the scheme has been extraordinarily successful in stimulating residential construction and preventing further attrition in the number of first time buyers entering the market.

    As a guarantee provided to first time buyers through the banks against the economic risk of a fall in house prices of up to 20% within five years, it involves minimum borrowing, finite and quantifiable contingency liabilities and low risk.

    The extension is entirely logical in my view.

    Do you have concerns?

    Yes, why do the banks need yet another subsidy. Break them up and make them compete.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,831
    AveryLP said:

    it looks like the Crimeans are becoming a beacon of democracy shining light into the deepest recesses of the US and EU's murky demos.

    The Russians mounted exercises along the Ukraine border, flew helicopters into Ukranian airspace, drove armoured personnel carriers into Ukrainian roads and motorways, disgorged armed troops onto Ukranian soil, pinned Ukranian forces in their own barracks, carved off a bit of Ukraine and Crimean citizens voted for it because they are the recent descendents of Russians imported when Russia murdered en masse the indigenous population in the USSR days.

    And you're using this for a cheap shot against the US and EU? Seriously?

    I think Wittgenstein once said something along the lines of "this is how the world ends: accompanied by the laughter of witty people, who think it such a clever joke".
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,831

    "Speaking ahead of his Budget on Wednesday, Mr Osborne said the government's Help to Buy scheme would also be extended until the end of the decade." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26600689
    Scratches head....

    At what point does Gideon die of shame?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,831
    Edin_Rokz said:

    What will happen on Sept 19th to all those pretty BoS, RBS and Clydesdale bank notes if they are not recognised as a legal currency?

    After independence, Scotland may use whatever currency it wishes: cowrie shells, pieces of paper, triganic pu, flanian pobble beads, whatever pleases it. But whatever it uses, it won't be GBP.
    malcolmg said:

    Currency issue is clear...

    The currency issue is perfectly clear. After independence the SNP will pretend that it's using the pound ("Look! It says 'POUND' on the notes!"). And nobody else outside Scotland will agree with them. And people will lose their life savings. Because (as previously stated) the SNP leadership simply don't know how to build an independent country.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014
    Y0kel said:

    'Russia attacks Ukraine proper' or has it?

    A problems with the stream of news is both heavy use of local non-independent sourcing that over inflates small events and also have their own skew. In addition use of multiple place names for what is essentially the same location doesn't help.

    As Socrates posted downthread there have been reports circulating for over 24 hours suggesting that Russian forces turned up in a Ukrainian area known as Kherson. Ukrainian sources are confused between suggestions they repelled an assault and reports that the Russian's had seized Strikove, a small town in the area where a power plant is.

    ....

    The West expects trouble, it just doesn't know what. Certainly there has been more movement of NATO assets than it appears such as the disappearance of a notable number of air-fueling tankers from their normal bases. The head shed, however, aren't wholly sure what the next move will be but you may be hearing the name of Kherson more. Equally when the referendum goes through it could be the fate of Ukrainian forces in the Crimea that might be the flashpoint.

    Y0kel

    The Kyiv Post is reporting an incursion by Russian forces into the Kherson Oblast to protect a natural gas plant.

    See: http://bit.ly/1ipU2ln

    Limited incursions by Russian forces to protect gas transit facilities has always been a high probability and is unlikely to result in strong Western action or even condemnation.

    As to Russia's plans for the East of the Ukraine, my view is that, once a massive majority for Crimean reunification with Russia on a high turnout has been announced, the Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine will increase the size and frequency of their demonstrations against Kiev rule. The effect of such demonstrations will be to render ineffective any attempt by Kiev to exercise its administrative powers in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. Kiev will eventually be tempted into a military response or the demonstrations will descend into civil unrest and this will provide the pretext for the Russian tanks to roll across the border.

    This process may take days or weeks but I believe it to be inevitable. Already today there has been a first 5,000 strong pro-Russian demonstration in Odessa.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,726
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    This is the reality of what people in Scotland think of the Tories, just for you Carlotta, reality not your London mince
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CRIphtjTe4&feature=youtu.be

    So much hate.....not good for you......

    Nothing constructive to add I see
    As I was saying...so much hate.....

    What have your constructive posts today been?

    Kiss goodbye to the union is is dead.
    I have long said that the Scots should 'take what they want, and pay for it.'

    The issue is the SNP are lying about the cost.

    How far do you think they will get dictating terms to the country that receives 60% of their exports?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,726
    SNP bullies stroke victim:

    SNP challenges BBC after First Minister appears on Andrew Marr show

    http://news.stv.tv/politics/268687-snp-challenges-bbc-after-first-minister-appears-on-andrew-marr-show/
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014

    AveryLP said:

    "Speaking ahead of his Budget on Wednesday, Mr Osborne said the government's Help to Buy scheme would also be extended until the end of the decade."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26600689

    Scratches head....

    The only part of Help to Buy which is being extended is the initial stage which is solely targetted at new-builds and first time buyers.

    This part of the scheme has been extraordinarily successful in stimulating residential construction and preventing further attrition in the number of first time buyers entering the market.

    As a guarantee provided to first time buyers through the banks against the economic risk of a fall in house prices of up to 20% within five years, it involves minimum borrowing, finite and quantifiable contingency liabilities and low risk.

    The extension is entirely logical in my view.

    Do you have concerns?

    Yes, why do the banks need yet another subsidy. Break them up and make them compete.
    The banks just distribute the subsidy to first time buyers, Mr. Brooke.

    The HTB guarantee enables them to service higher loan to value loans without having to raise additional capital.

    So the guarantee satisfies known public demand; stimulates residential construction; avoids additional capital subscription by the taxpayer to the intervened banks; and, improves the value of the bank shares which will be sold by government to the private sector during the period of the guarantee.

    Win, win, win, win, Mr. Brooke.

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    viewcode said:

    AveryLP said:

    it looks like the Crimeans are becoming a beacon of democracy shining light into the deepest recesses of the US and EU's murky demos.

    The Russians mounted exercises along the Ukraine border, flew helicopters into Ukranian airspace, drove armoured personnel carriers into Ukrainian roads and motorways, disgorged armed troops onto Ukranian soil, pinned Ukranian forces in their own barracks, carved off a bit of Ukraine and Crimean citizens voted for it because they are the recent descendents of Russians imported when Russia murdered en masse the indigenous population in the USSR days.

    And you're using this for a cheap shot against the US and EU? Seriously?

    I think Wittgenstein once said something along the lines of "this is how the world ends: accompanied by the laughter of witty people, who think it such a clever joke".
    I am not approving of Russian actions, Mr. Code, merely observing their inevitability.

    The hinterland of the Russian Empire is not where the EU and US should be concentrating their financial resources and persuasive skills.

    If Russia is to reform it must start in Moscow.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997
    viewcode said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    What will happen on Sept 19th to all those pretty BoS, RBS and Clydesdale bank notes if they are not recognised as a legal currency?

    After independence, Scotland may use whatever currency it wishes: cowrie shells, pieces of paper, triganic pu, flanian pobble beads, whatever pleases it. But whatever it uses, it won't be GBP.
    malcolmg said:

    Currency issue is clear...

    The currency issue is perfectly clear. After independence the SNP will pretend that it's using the pound ("Look! It says 'POUND' on the notes!"). And nobody else outside Scotland will agree with them. And people will lose their life savings. Because (as previously stated) the SNP leadership simply don't know how to build an independent country.
    Calm down George, concentrate on your budget, nurse will be back soon
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,831
    AveryLP said:

    I am not approving of Russian actions, merely observing their inevitability.

    Ah, I see. Thank you. .

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,726
    New Thread
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,997

    SNP bullies stroke victim:

    SNP challenges BBC after First Minister appears on Andrew Marr show

    http://news.stv.tv/politics/268687-snp-challenges-bbc-after-first-minister-appears-on-andrew-marr-show/

    LOL, after Marr loses the plot and tells FM that Scotland will not get back into EU Carlotta plays the poor stroke victim card. Usual pansy unionists , like to issue threats but when called out their yellow streaks a mile wide are on full show. The Westminster propaganda unit should be forced to explain why its presenters are peddling their biased personal views in an interview. Sacking is too good for him.
This discussion has been closed.