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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories close the gap by 1.4 percent in this week’s PB YouGov Weekly Average
After a big week politically and some generally better ratings the Tories have closed the gap by 1.4% in the latest PB weekly average. We have been producing this weekly since the start of the year to help us better follow trends from the five times a weeky YouGov polls.
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A Michelin star beckons for The Unicorn.
A repeat offence will force the PB Committee for Calorific Control to expel you permanently to the Scottish YES boot camp where a forced diet of bitter denial, dodgy stats and humourless abuse will be served until you are re-educated as a mindless unthinking moron - sad examples of whom we see all too regularly from PB SNP posters.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/sixyearold-schoolboy-suspended-for-having-mini-cheddars-in-his-lunchbox-has-now-been-expelled-9109722.html
Has been a good few weeks gastronomically - My wife's retirement present from her primary school was a night plus menu exceptional at the Waterside in Bray. Good old fashioned food - foie, lobster etc. We had to pay for the drinks which was more than would normally spend on meal.
Hang on a wee mo .... I'll just get my hand held nuclear microscope out to detect the poll movement ....
Oh yes .... there it is, cunningly hiding somewhere between a single cell amoeba and a Higgs Boson fart.
Moving on ....
Is she planning to spend more time with your "winning here" placards ??
Oh yes .... there it is, cunningly hiding somewhere between a single cell amoeba and a Higgs Boson fart.
Moving on ....
I'll take that as a concession that the trend is indeed to Yes. Albeit a grudging one.
As you say Jack, the trend is your friend.
"A major new poll shows 39 per cent of Scots are planning to vote Yes on September 18 compared with 48 per cent who will vote No.".......
"A similar poll for Survation last month found support for Yes was 38 per cent and No 47 per cent – meaning both side have gone up by one per cent."
As you say Jack, the trend is your friend.
Not quite old Swede .... might I advise you and the rest of the SNP vegetables that you've as much hope of any trend ending up with a YES overall victory as TV viewers have of seeing a genuine smile from Sebastian Vettel this morning.
Zilcho.
Zilcho.
Jack, you get all excited over a miniscule Lab -> Con swing in last week's YouGovs, and yet criticise another poster for merely pointing out that there is also a No -> Yes swing going on.
You cannot have your cake and eat it.
Best Yes price: 5.46 (Betfair)
Best Vettel price: 834 (Betdaq)
I had an omelette baguette in Spain once; lasted me all day!
Fortunately I’m not confined to drinking the products of the big brewers. There’s a small independent brewer in our little town which produces an excellent range of beers and often provides the guest beer in the pub I prefer.
Survation No lead in fieldwork 6-7 Mar = 9 points.
Thanks George Osborne!
The 2010 LD split is atypical of recent results.
Split is: LAB:41; LD 31; Cons 11; UKIP 10
The split on Friday (Lab lead 5) was:
Lab: 33; LD 38; Cons: 10; UKIP 9
You cannot have your cake and eat it.
Best Yes price: 5.46 (Betfair)
Best Vettel price: 834 (Betdaq)
Let me advise you, for the want of doubt, that it takes a wee bit more than poll movements to get this fellow "all excited".
Whereas you seem to be unable to contain yourself from the dubious pleasures of a tiny movement in one poll that is so vanishingly small that Ronnie Corbett would make a whole comedy routine out of it.
Time for something far more substantive than SNP pipe dreams .... my very full and far from small breakfast.
"Before you start the survey, we need to cover some Terms and Conditions. The original spirit of the CoProducer project was this: you as panellists help us make the movie, and you as panellists therefore share in the profits of the movie.
You will be eligible for a share of 35% of the profits, provided you adhere to the two key terms and conditions of eligibility, as set out below:
Profits is defined as the YouGov Producer's Net Profit share, i.e. the share of profits remaining after the payment of all entitled third parties.
To participate in, and be eligible for a share of profits from, the CoProducer project, every panellist must complete no less than 50% of YouGov surveys to which you are invited between the date of completing this survey and the final CoProducer survey, which we anticipate sending towards the end of the editing process (in approximately 12 months). The CoProducer project is a new way of making movies: harnessing thousands of opinions from panellists to decide how a story is told. YouGov is financing this project because it believes this methodology can transform the movie industry. A failure to complete 50% of YouGov surveys to which you are invited will lead to you losing any entitlement to a share in the profits of the CoProducer project."
Is this the most bonkers idea you have ever seen?
There should be no such corrective policy for aficianados of the culinary delights of the bucolic Leicestershire market town of Melton Mowbray.
Myself I find the Pork pie is best accompanied by mango chutney, wholegrain mustard and baked beans served cold. Wash it down with a pint of Oakham ales Citra.
Fortified as such, a little light sport such as a bottle kicking* is much preferrable to listening to Scottish yes surgers.
* Bottle kicking is proper football medival style: http://visitbritainnordic.wordpress.com/2010/03/25/quirky-event-of-the-week-bottle-kicking-and-hare-pie-scramble/
The secondaries aren't actually very exciting - the sample takes a more jaundiced view of all parties, and coalition, the leaders etc. than the last sample. They think Tories best at handling the economy in general (38-28), Labour best at keeping inflation down (32-27) and increasing employment (33-29) - the most notable thing about all the numbers being that they are all low and it's mainly supporters of a party who think they're any good.
I do think that the Tories have caught up a bit even though this poll doesn't show it - it's not that Labour's share is dropping but there is a trickle back from UKIP to Con. The real lead is probably around 5, and if you measure current certainty to vote (which IMO isn't a reliable indicator in marginals) around 3-4. UKIP need some positive publicity to regain momentum, the best shot at which is probably a good Euros showing.
You cannot have your cake and eat it.
Best Yes price: 5.46 (Betfair)
Best Vettel price: 834 (Betdaq)
The PB tories are always wrong. The PB tories never learn. It's the PB golden rule.
Welsh men have chalked up almost half a million prescriptions from GPs for erection-boosting drugs in just two years, we can reveal.
Men needing a chemical boost to help with their love making were handed 444,423 scripts for erectile dysfunction during 2012 and 2013.
The massive haul of anti-impotency pills is the equivalent of one prescription for every three men aged over 18 registered with GPs, according to figures provided by the nation’s health boards.
www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/gps-wales-hand-out-half-6837583
The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”. A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop. How do I know this? I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com
What movies from 2013 do people recommend for the flight?
A good week for the Tories last week, but are Ukip now bouncing back? To early to say, Labour will be hoping so.
Should be fun.
If it's BA I'd recommend Gravity, Despicable Me 2 and Captain Phillips from the ones I've seen - and of the ones I'd like to see, Dallas Buyers Club, 12 Years a Slave and Inside Llewyn Davis.
http://www.britishairways.com/en-gb/information/entertainment/in-flight-entertainment?from=LGW,LHR&to=DFW&class=all&month=this&flightno=
From the gist of the article, he has been knifed from behind....
In 2010: 33% Tory, 32% Lab.
Now: 16% Tory, 57% Lab.
Has any other demographic group shown a larger swing since 2010 than 21%?
The usual counter to that is to ask "but what about asking parents what they think of Michael Gove?" The problem is that the largest response will be "Who?"
To be fair, this is a problem that everyone has when doing something that hurts a medum-sized group badly which you hope will benefit a large group who are less involved. My margin of defeat in 2010 was probably smaller than the number of Labour voters annoyed about impending tram works (the Tories promised to try to stop the project). There's plenty of evidence that most people quite like the tram extension, but not in a way that makes them change their votes, whereas people who could see their lives would be disrupted for a year really hated it.
I have given up and read instead !
Thinking about the current state of the economy, which
of the following best reflects your view?
The economy is still getting worse: 14 (-8)
The economy has stopped getting worse, but there are no
signs of any recovery yet: 32 (+3)
The economy is in a bad way, but is starting to show signs
of recovery: 38 (+2)
The economy is improving and on the way to full recovery: 11(+4)
DK: 6(-1)
Thinking about the government's economic policies,
which of the following best reflects your view? (Compared to June 27-28)
The government should stick to its current strategy of
reducing the deficit, even if this means growth remains
slow:38(+3)
The government should change its strategy to concentrate
on growth, even if this means the deficit stays longer: 30(-9)
Neither : 10(0)
Not Sure: 22 (+6)
In both polls it is only the Labour VI who says economy is getting worse, there is no recovery and should concentrate on growth and keep the deficit.
You only need to look at the Maths test published the other day that was so ridiculously easy as to make it irrefutably clear how standards have dropped. I did that sort of stuff for common entrance and even earlier... in the 60's.
Having done the flight to New Zealand, I can recommend a mix of activities including puzzles and games as well as films and TV. I enjoy long-haul flying but from the reasonable sanctuary of Premium Economy (which Air NZ does very well).
On other matters, as far as the Budget is concerned, I do think the 40% threshold would seem to be the "pressure area" this year. Clearly, it's been hugely beneficial for bringing in additional tax revenue over the past few years so I can understand why any Chancellor would want to keep it but the political advantage of raising the threshold above inflation seems undeniable.
I see no reason to tinker with tax rates but moving the threshold and raising personal allowances would be a big step for millions of tax payers. I also recognise the argument for changes to NI and that's clearly another option.
The question for this year and next is whether Osborne will be a "political" Chancellor and frame Budget strategy around winning votes or an "economic" Chancellor where the general health of the economy and the sustaining of the recovery is paramount even if that means eschewing some of the ideas that would be politically more favourable in the short term.
It's also clear that pressure is building for a drastic post-election round of public expenditure reductions - it will be interesting to see if Osborne is prepared to say what kind of cuts he would wish to make were he to be Chancellor of a Conservative majority Government and conversely what Ed Balls would do were he in the same position in a Labour Government,
Meanwhile we have this reality bollocks from Theresa may to the 20 or 30 old buffers attending the Tory conference
Theresa May, the UK Home Secretary, yesterday told the Scottish Conservative conference that a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum would see the UK government putting up passport and immigration controls at the border.
So do you prefer fantasy or reality, the day from Westminster are great recruiting sergeants for YES
Avoid: Gravity (on an aircraft screen - heresy! Do it the justice of a proper screening, preferably at an Imax), Inside Llewyn Davis, Blue Jasmine (personal antipathy - I know many people loved it but I was intensely annoyed by the supporting cast to Ms Blanchett)
People may recall that I praised the two performances of Matt McConaughey and Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club as Oscar-worthy when I saw this on the BAFTA screener at the end of last year. A judgment that looked a little shaky when the parochial bastards at BAFTA didn't think either performance worthy of even a NOMINATION. Jeez..... Thankfully their respective Oscar wins allowed me to shove two fingers up at BAFTA.
BTW, anyone who has not yet caught up with "True Detective" is missing out on arguably the finest writing yet in a TV series. Outstanding.
Westminster VI
SNP 35%
Lab 32%
Con 20%
LD 7%
Grn 3%
UKIP 3%
Euro VI
(with +/- change compared to Westminster VI)
SNP 39% (+4)
Lab 19% (-13)
Con 13% (-7)
LD 12% (+5)
Grn 8% (+5)
UKIP 6% (+3)
This indicates that the SNP, SLD, SGP and SUKIP are going to have a relatively good June, whereas SLab could be heading for a nightmare in June. SCons will likely be a shrug of the shoulders. As usual.
As NPXMP proves - Labour were too timid to take them on I case the polling was bad.
Marr now asking Balls & Osborne on the pound - both sticking very firmly to the line....
ComRes - Euro VI
English Midlands : 39%
Wales & South-west of England : 36%
North of England : 31%
South-east of England : 29%
Scotland : 6%
On a less contentious note, Divergent [film coming out this week, aimed at the Hunger Games market] sounds rather interesting. Has anyone read the book?
http://veronicarothbooks.blogspot.co.uk/p/books.html
If you are so thick that you believe they are sensible in promoting so stupid a threat then you really are deluded.
Of course, air traffic would be simple to switch to international, and as there will no longer be a service requirement to run through trains to Scotland, train passengers can be checked when they change trains.....
83% support: Increasing the personal allowance (the amount people earn before paying tax) from £10,000 to £10,500: no surprise there!
55% support:Increasing the amount people can earn before paying
the 40p rate of tax from its current level of about £42,000: All parties are in favour of this - including 50% of Labour VI
Abolishing the 45p rate of tax on earnings over £150,000, so that the top rate of tax is 40p: opposed by all parties by 64 to 23.
Increasing the 45p rate of tax on earnings over £150,000 to 50p.
Supported by 58 to 31 (Cons oppose).
Introducing a new tax on homes worth more than £2million, with people paying an annual tax of 1% of the value of their home over £2 million?
Supported by 61 to 27 but when the £1m figure is used, support falls to 50% with only Labour in favour.
@iainmartin1: The pound, says Salmond, is *more* "ours" than Osborne's. Just getting silly now. Pound post-indy not *more* the SNP's than 90% of UK.
@jameschappers: Salmond badly misjudging this interview by turning on the host #marr
@iainmartin1: Very poor Salmond performance on Marr. Smirking, being rude. Smart Alex usually loses. It's when he tones it down that he wins
I take it you missed this car crash then?
You have missed malcolmg's sense of self-deprecating humour!
In respect of the polling Labour were partly saved by the Yougov yesterday which had them back at 40%. Looking at the other polling in the week by other companies this seems somewhat unlikely and it seems Labour are nearer the 35%. This is the bottom end of the band that they have been in for the best part of 2 years and it would be significant if they fell below it.
My guess is that this will ultimately prove to be a steady as she goes and isn't she going well budget that will have little impact in the polls. If the tories' position is to improve it will need longer term trends to help them and the secondaries on the economy give some hope in this respect.
The English Midlands have been exposed to some of the more drastic aspects of culture change through immigration.
The South-West has always been very independent-minded and resent any interference - especially from Europe; and Cornwall in particular resents Spanish fishermen ever since Ted Heath gave away the UK's fishing rights and severely cut their fishing industry.
Nice day.
Sun shining in London.
.........and a good cartoon from MAT
I suspect the politics of envy would mean we would vote to show the rich the door. But be nice to have it confirmed.
Or alternatively, have some politician to stand up and shout that they really love the idea of more rich people coming here. Rich people pay for the NHS. See what abuse they copped...and from whom.
1. It would be interesting to see the YG weekly averages without the Sunday one. That often seems to throw in results that look very different to the other ones.
2. When doing poll averages, would it not be a good idea to average out phone polls and online polls separately?
3. As this is budget week and the gap has been narrow in most of the polls, there is a very good chance we will see at least one in the next seven days that puts the Tories ahead. Osborne is bound to throw out at a few populist, eye-catching measures after all. I would not want to be on welfare after this Wednesday, that's for sure.
And how about this:
Cabinet ministers have been quietly approving hefty pay rises for some of their own special advisers while freezing or imposing sub-inflation increases on the pay of millions of other civil servants and public sector workers, official figures show.
The rises – which in the case of one special adviser at Iain Duncan Smith's Department for Work and Pensions was 36% last year – were condemned as outrageous last night by civil service unions and the Labour party.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/16/civil-service-unions-attack-salaries-cabinet-advisers
We're all in it together ...
Alex Salmond, economist, politician, and clown.
However unlike you I do not need to try and prove I have the biggest willie.
Marr is known for his powderpuff interviews of unionists so no surprise he is rude to Alex, who put him and his pathetic posturing about Barosso firmly in his place
"A mother who complained about her 14-year-old daughter studying a play containing 400 swear words has suffered a torrent of foul-mouthed abuse – from teachers.
Gerardine Stockford expressed dismay on Mumsnet after finding her daughter Anna was studying the gritty drama Mogadishu – which contains 218 uses of the F-word and ten of the C-word – as part of her GCSE drama course.........
But one Mumsnet user, who claimed to be a teacher, responded: ‘Censorship – that’s what you want. So you can impose your middle- England, white, middle-class values on a world that no longer exists.
‘As a teacher, I will say very bluntly how sick and f****** tired I am of parents like you who think they are experts on all f****** areas of the curriculum.’
Another said: ‘This really, really p***** me off . . . I teach and have had half-***ed complaints from parents on occasion . . . What really boils my p*** is people having opinions about things they haven’t even read and certainly don’t understand.’"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2581883/Teachers-rants-mother-hit-four-letter-words-lessons-Complained-14-year-old-daughter-studying-play-containing-400-swear-words.html#ixzz2w7bwRUi4
Alex Salmond
http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/referendum-news/leaked-report-scotlands-growth-rate-lowest-in-uk.23699269?_=a4f8881ba3c6217b18d6d0476e4db051357774ec
You only need to look at the Maths test published the other day that was so ridiculously easy as to make it irrefutably clear how standards have dropped. I did that sort of stuff for common entrance and even earlier... in the 60's.
What vested interests is Gove taking on, and more importantly, why? Taking as read that teachers by and large are interested in education and its improvement, and since Gove is not planning mass closures and redundancies, is it not a sign of gross political ineptitude that Gove cannot carry the teachers with him? Or perhaps that he has not even tried?
Gove wants the priority in education to be the pupils achievements - not the teachers and their unions wacky 1970's failed education experiments.
As NPXMP proves - Labour were too timid to take them on I case the polling was bad.
You are missing the point. Granted that Gove wants to improve education, and that teachers have a vested interest in this, why has Gove made no attempt to carry the teachers with him?
Gove has been captured by vested interests - people and organisations who want to run academies and free schools for profit. Teachers are a huge expense for those seeking to do that.
Diane Abbot sent her child to a fee paying school because she was dissatisfied with the local state schools despite being opposed to private schools... There are lots of incidences of this especially within the Labour ranks.
Free schools are a result of parents dissatisfaction with the local state school. Its no wonder, given how appalling some of them are.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/russian-troops-invade-kherson-oblast-ukrainians-declare-right-to-fight-back-339509.html
Pretty predictable to those of us who weren't stupid enough to believe Russia was interested in the human rights of Russian speakers, but is just practicing imperialism using whatever excuses it can. Presumably the peaceniks and isolationists will just use an other set of excuses now, and will keep on doing so no matter what Russia does. The short termist thinking is unbelievable - this is what happens when you abandon the principle of territorial integrity for states that have done absolutely nothing wrong.
The both of them could sit there for half an hour and say nothing and this is how the Hodges would post:
Balls was crap
Gideon master strategist
Tory economic genius
Brown/Balls/Brown/Balls/Brown/Balls
Gideon outclassed Balls
Plan A no Plan B - Tory economic ejaculation
Yellow boxes a.o.t.s.
Perhaps if the SNP hadn't been too feart to use their tax lowering powers the economy might be in better shape. Vote YES for more of the same forever...
'Scottish Economy Doing Well' - thanks to the SNP government!
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/scotland-is-14th-richest-country-in-the-world-say-snp.23668163
'Scottish Economy Doing Badly': - thanks to the Union!