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The Democrats are losing their enthusiasm – politicalbetting.com
The Democrats are losing their enthusiasm – politicalbetting.com
NEW Economist/YouGov Poll, September 21-24% who are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president in NovemberRepublicans: 62%Democrats: 61%https://t.co/vISj7yilza pic.twitter.com/dVbPSmZhHL
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PB isn't the best place to find insights into the world of the low paid, manual workforce so this is super useful. Thx.
The party is mired in “the deepest crisis” it has faced in a decade, one of its outgoing leaders said."
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-greens-leaders-resign-dismal-election-results-omid-nouripour-ricarda-lang/
Much of the Starmer freebies story is a massive own goal of spectacular proportions, but this one seems reasonable?
Source: https://x.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1838881435672871142/photo/1
https://x.com/jonathanpienews/status/1838902692065734876
You can’t be in opposition for 14 years, criticising the Tories for accepting ‘gifts’, and certain privileges, then act surprised when the public call you out for doing the same thing.
From Angela Rayner’s ‘But everybody does it’ excuse, to Starmer saying ‘It was the right thing to do’, Labour needs to sort their shit out ASAP, because as Honeymoon periods go, this one has been an absolute car crash.
Good article, which I trust doesn't breach PB's ban on illegitimate disparaging of pollsters ?
The Polling Imperilment
Presidential polls are no more reliable than they were a century ago. So why do they consume our political lives?
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-09-25-polling-imperilment/
In 2016, I experienced the desolation of my candidate for president losing after the most respected polling experts told me she had a 71.4 percent, 85 percent, 98.2 percent, and even 99 percent chance of winning. As a historian, I was studying how Ronald Reagan’s runaway landslide in 1980 was proceeded by every pollster but one supremely confident that the race was just about tied. I’ve just finished a fine book published in 2020 that confirms an intuition I’ve been chewing on since then. It turns out this is practically the historical norm. W. Joseph Campbell’s Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections demonstrates—for the first time, strangely enough, given the robust persuasiveness of its conclusions—that presidential polls are almost always wrong, consistently, in deeply patterned ways...
...POLLSTERS TEND NOT TO INTERPRET THIS all as a spur to humility. Reading Campbell’s book, I found myself creating a section of my notes headed “Assholes.” Like George Gallup in ’48 giving the excuse that his mistakes were his audience’s fault: “Most laymen see no difference between forecasting an election and picking the winner of a horse race. In due time these people will be educated to the difference.” Or John Zogby in 2004, when he had joined the herd who said John Kerry had it in the bag. This was so taken for granted that on Election Day, senior adviser Bob Shrum said to Kerry, “May I be the first to call you Mr. President?” When this proved wrong, Zogby whined, “I don’t know that anyone was hospitalized over my prediction.”
The spin’s the thing. Admitting the enterprise’s fallibility is bad for business...
Sadly, I think the majority of the US media are so scared of Trump that they’re happy to let her walk to the election with no actual challenge.
Swing voters actually notice this stuff.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13877225/Sir-Shameless-PM-Sue-Gray-enjoy-Spurs-freebie-lobbyist-backed-breakaway-football-super-league-advises-tax-avoiding-tech-giants.html
Presumably she was "working" as civil servants can't accept gifts like politicians can?
If what you say is all it is I cannot see how anyone can object to that.
The video was broadcast on BBC One at 7 p.m, 13th December. Five days prior to Starmer’s message the government announced the entirety of England would be moved to Plan B rules in response to the fast spread of Omicron. According to the regulations those who could were meant to work from home. ‘Mr Rules’ even said in the video message:
“It will be easy to let the festivities we’ve all been looking forward to divert us from our national duty. Getting jabbed, wearing masks, and working from home if we can really will help prevent infections and help prevent the NHS being overwhelmed.”
Guido’s not sure working from home rules included working from someone else’s home. Must have been nice to head up to the massive roof terrace after that was done though…
Vorderman, to her credit, has, even though her new book has had mixed reviews.
Pays money, takes choice...
Guido’s properly on to this now. If Starmer was there on election night as suggested, he’s got to be in real trouble with the Parliamentary authorities if he declared it as simply a place for his son to study. Potential campaign finance violations etc.
IS this nothing more than mischief making in this case ?
I'm also not sure who the "Kamala fanatics" are and why you have an issue with them. I'm happy to hear why a Trump second Presidency would be of benefit to America and the world - put the argument up.
I'm not sure at this point this poll makes a lot of odds - 62 vs 61 is hardly a massive enthusiasm gasp in all honesty and IF the Democratic ground game is as good as is widely claimed, it'll be just as easy to get their voters to vote as it will be Republicans and there may be more of them (or there may not).
We all know Harris piling up majorities in Delaware and Oregon and Trump piling up majorities in Kentucky and Utah isn't what this is about so again the enthusiasm numbers matter a lot less at this stage - the time to ask this would be this time next month and in the crucial marginal states.
I'm obviously not pro Keir, it just seems logical..
The absurd cliff edges in employment vs benefits are a disaster.
If someone is low skilled, there are two reasons ( usually )
One is that they have been working for about 10 minutes. You'd have to work at *not* acquiring skills on a building site, though.
The other is that they don't have the intellectual toolbox to learn skills, beyond basic things. This doesn't mean that they are dumb. It means that they haven't learnt (or been taught) how to learn. So they can't move up the ladder.
This is my opinion - no hard data to back it up.
Were they previously unaware of the register of interests?
If he was working himself in the flat, he would need to show the expenditure in the returns to the Electoral Commission, rather than to Parliamentary authorities as a BIK donation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn9d17ljlvro
Sounds like they all moved out.
Many people are upset with him, that following the change of government he’s still ripping the piss out of the incumbents.
"I had to take freebies for my son, says Starmer
Labour leader defends decision to use Lord Alli’s £18m penthouse and take free football tickets"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/25/keir-starmer-lord-alli-accommodation-son-gcses/
So - if it's as @Phil says - then it's an order of magnitude less damning that a £8,600/game box (which works out at about £200,000 for the season).
In the interests of Full Disclosure, I will be watching the US Open Cup final this evening between LAFC and and Sporting Kansas City from a box. Albeit one that me and my friends paid for.
https://x.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1838952290201251881?t=wFJpAXJg_k5YZFT0ov5wEw&s=19
And this is doubly important because getting people into consistent patterns of work isn't just good for the economy, it's good for their mental and physical health. We all benefit from routine, and work provides that.
Probably better indicators are how consumers are feeling about specific topics and who would be best to fix them and that looks grim for Harris. Gallup had the GOP leading on 9 of the top 10 indicators and on the most important factors. Pew said the same recently.
If you also look at the trends that are happening in the polls (if you believe them), it seems like AZ and GA are moving slowly but surely to be considered strong possibilities for Trump. NC is more at risk because of Robinson but that may suggest what will happen next with this bid for Governor. PA is tied. WI is marginal Harris but the WI polls have tended to massively overstate the Democrats' lead in 2016 and 2020.
One final point - you might want to consider that high-profile Democrat Governors like Shapiro, Whitmer, Pritzker and Newsom have not exactly been banging the drum at 100% volume for Harris. There are a lot of big Democrat names who would see a Harris victory in 2024 as a block to their Presidential bids in 2028.
How many mums with kids at school (even senior school) want to work 6am to 2pm, which is a frequent shift pattern ?
They want to get their kids fed and dressed and be certain they are on the way to school.
9 - 3pm, or 4pm or 5pm would work.
They know education is the way out - they aren't daft.
No harm in working 30, 32.5 or whatever rather than 37.5 hours a week.
Don't crucify people if they need to take a kid to Doctors or go into school to sort a problem out. Things that are very difficult to do outside 8:30am - 4:30pm for most.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFzlm9wQ4MI
vs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29MG_8gALko
The reason he's been able to stretch his rants out ten years, of course, is that he's right.
I agree that AZ should be an easy pickup for Trump, but he does face two headwinds there: one is the abortion referendum, and two is the weakness of the Republican's Senatorial candidate.
The declaration merely states the value , the donor and the dates.
The explanation was his son needing to study. I don't think anyone believe that he was there alone.
The statement that he would need to show the expenditure in the returns to the Electoral Commission, RATHER than to Parliamentary authorities is flat wrong.
Bruno Retailleau vows to ‘restore’ order as he begins tenure as new interior minister"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/24/france-expel-illegal-immigrants-broken-in-bruno-retailleau/
"Murder of Paris student fuels anger at failed deportation"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly650vk317o
"Currently fewer than 10% of French expulsion orders are carried out, according to government figures."
@HCH_Hill
At least Ed Miliband's functional kitchenette was his own functional kitchenette.
We will end up with Le Pen in power in France. the AfD in Germany, Meloni in Italy, and so on, and so forth; all painfully predictable
Wagenknecht in Germany, Melenchon in France ?
Australia shows that this can be done if you're ruthless enough. Oz was also lucky in being a continent to itself with tiny islands to use as offshore destinations. European governments will have to be even more brutal but there is no doubt it can be done
I expect a deconstruction of the ECHR and Eurojust powers over this, they will be eviscerated
The public are unhappy with the state of the economy. They are mad about immigration. The incumbent has been forced to pull out at a relatively late stage to be replaced by their deputy.
The opposition should sweep the board in these circumstances.
Most football fans hold on to season tickets like limpets particularly at the likes of Arsenal, United, Liverpool and even Everton, and which is why some season ticket holders at Liverpool are rumoured to have reached the ripe old age of 107
They can get face value back from the club without difficulty.
When he's left office and on the ex PM speech gravy train, I'd be pretty certain his son would prefer to sit in his normal spec. with people he has probably known for 5 years+ than with some twats in a box.
Really , is this supposed to be a big deal.
I would venture to suggest that this is only the start of attempts to destabilise Starmer but in all honesty he and his cabinet colleagues have made it rather easy
"The experience of arriving at Manchester Airport from Singapore is the nearest we can get to experiencing actual time travel from the future to the past, or to approximate viscerally the feeling of what it was like to return to East Germany from the West"
https://x.com/MatthewLBishop/status/1838506530234126557
Two points. He is comparing it to Changi which is probably the best airport in the world, and in one of the richest cities in the world. And I went through Edinburgh airport recently and I thought it was OK for a regional European airport, about the same as you'd get in Spain or Germany, a bit less flash than France
But is Manc really that bad?
The Chinese government is attempting a large stimulus to get things moving again, but until people see evidence of increased demand they aren't convinced, so the oil price has fallen by about 15% in six months.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13875417/ugandan-killer-murdering-man-wont-deported-judge-rules-breach-human-rights.html
There have been various issues with staffing over the past two or three years, same as other airports. But the actual fabric is fine. Like you'd expect tge third biggest airport in the UK to be.
Edinburgh is superior, albeit it doesn't have to cope with as much traffic.
I would like proper democratic parties to be much much firmer on migration/asylum/culture/Woke
But I don't want actual far right parties in power
It is noticeable that one of the few countries that has managed to tamp down the far right threat is Denmark. And that happened because the social democratic left adopted hard right policies on migration/culture/Woke etc
It can be done; indeed, if we want our democracies to survive, it must be done
Which they absolutely ripped into the Tories for.
Shetland has some weird tiny ones as well, and isn't there a beach airport in the Outer Hebrides
For actual airport airports, Newquay has a picayune charm, right by the Cornish cliffs