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Persepolis Now – looking at the future of Iran – politicalbetting.com
Persepolis Now – looking at the future of Iran – politicalbetting.com
It is easy to take democracy for granted. In July, the UK had an election. People voted in a free and fair manner, the votes were counted within 12 hours, and the sitting prime minister gave up power and departed the next day.
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Iran is one of those places where life goes on the same until it doesnt. What follows could be anything.
Not to mention a Bay of Naples volcanic eruption...
IMV Iran is the key player in the Middle East - more so than Saudi, Israel or Turkey. What happens there matters; as we can see with their support of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis etc.
I remain somewhat concerned that we’re saying Kemi Badenoch would be compromised by Ed Sheeran tickets, so those must be outlawed, but Kemi Badenoch won’t be compromised by a £40,000 donation from Charles Keymer. I find that implausible. But I’m not saying I have any better idea. There is this fundamental clash between politics requiring donations for its funding and the problem with politicians being swayed by donations.
I hope we see it revert back.
Whatever happens Iranian women will be the losers.
Before the revolution, my dad had an audience with Queen Farah Pahlavi and described copious wealth on display. The problems that led up to the overthrow of the monarchy were very real, yet the revolution was tragically overtaken by the theocrats.
Hopefully Starmer kicks out the bishops at the same time as the hereditaries.
(You can tell you've fallen out with your government when they station you in a warzone...)
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1838301476168376765
One of my colleagues trained in Baghdad in the Eighties. The lifestyle, clothes and big hair in her photo album is not very different to my own at the same time in London. The exception was occasional students disappearing and never heard from or spoken of again. She gets very tearful over it at times, equally angry at the clerics, Saddam and the Americans. In a similar vein look at street photos of Kabul or Cairo in the Seventies.
Another colleague was sent from Iran to boarding school with his brother in the Eighties aged 13 to prevent them being drafted into the war. He didn't see his parents for a decade. Wise and sensible parents, much like those who put their children on the kindertransport.
Neither was officially a refugees, both came on other visas, but might as well have been.
I would love to visit Iran, some amazing history there and I have never met an Iranian that I didn't like, though I have only met those who have left Iran.
And the secular governments rested on very shaky foundations.
Serious crime in the US is falling and has been for a while, since an upward blip during Covid. The murder rate is down 9% and rapes are significantly down too. There is absolutely no trace of crime spiralling out of control, driven by psychotic immigrants.
Of course this won’t stop Trump from continuing to claim otherwise or his supporters believing it. It is not only Iran where the leaders have irrational beliefs.
I think status quo bias is strong here and there will be a seamless handover to whichever new ayatollah it happens to be. I don't see a civil war or uprising or suchlike. Sadly for my beliefs (western liberal democratic as they are).
The more interesting question is whether, as you ponder, they pivot "towards" the West or seek to validate their fundamentalist position in the ME.
Anyone have a clue?
https://x.com/anthelonious/status/1837964001604424097
It’s way more nuanced than “Trump is lying”.
Just because Britain isn’t working at the moment doesn’t mean it can’t be fixed.
With Labour, the work to deliver change has already begun.
It will be tough in the short-term, but right for our country in the long-term.
We are rebuilding a Britain that belongs to you.
It isn't so long, for instance, that a large chunk of the political nation refused to accept the outcome of the largest democratic vote in this country's history and did everything they could to frustrate it over three dire years - incidentally often the same people who get sanctimonious about the dismal Trump's awful refusal to accept the results of the last American election, and including our current Prime Minister.
Either one is a democrat or one isn't. The test is whether one accepts the results of votes one doesn't like.
All the dissembling was done in the House of Commons. There should be a clue in there for even the most challenged political analysts.
Just admit it, he's batshit.
Trump addresses women: "I am your protector. I want to be your protector ... you will no longer be abandoned, lonely, or scared. You will no longer be in danger ... you will no longer be thinking about abortion."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1838385282346844352
Knight was 21 at the time and at a cricket club in Kent when she attended the fancy dress end of season party.
She has been reprimanded and issued a £1,000 fine, which is suspended for two years, after admitting to the charge, England’s Cricket Regulator said on Monday.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/england-captain-heather-knight-charged-for-historic-blackface-social-media-post/ar-AA1r3FuT?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=018c2d387b14435b987bc9b8ec94320d&ei=11
The clerics and Ayatollahs are likely to retain most of the power regardless. Given its current involvement in proxy wars with Saudi Arabia in Yemen and Israel in Gaza whether defeat in either forces change would be an interesting question
No intention or need, according to these people. Russia and China filling the gap as Iran perceives the West to be unpredictable and unnecessary.
https://asiatimes.com/2024/06/will-next-iran-president-make-nicer-with-the-west/
I think @Leon is rather regretting his dirty weekend with the Labour Party
https://medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-waverley-and-mid-suffolk-by-elections-of-tuesday-24th-september-2024-e6143c34912a
"The photograph of Knight was reported to the Cricket Regulator in July of this year and she was charged in August. At the time she was captain of London Spirit in The Hundred, which the side went on to win.
Interim director of the Cricket Regulator Dave Lewis said: "Cricket is working to become a more inclusive sport and the Cricket Regulator is committed to acting positively and impartially whenever racist behaviour is reported to us.
"In this case, Ms Knight's behaviour was discriminatory and offensive, however the Cricket Discipline Commission accepted there was no racist intent in her conduct. I welcome her acknowledgment of the potential impact of her behaviour, and her unreserved apology.""
They happen at least every few years. Looking back from now, we’ve had a war and energy price spike, a pandemic, Brexit, the Arab Spring and refugee crisis, a Eurozone debt crisis, a global financial crisis, the Iraq war and its fallout, 9/11, an emerging markets debt crisis. Oh and plenty of mini supply chain disruptions like Houthis or hurricane Katrina or the Japanese tsunami in between.
Disruption and surprises are the norm so Starmer better start planning for the next one.
As a Whig and Radical Liberal non Tory no surprise to see you wanting to remove the bishops and remaining hereditaries from the Lords. As a proper Tory though I of course want to keep both.
Starmer though had a manifesto commitment only to remove the remaining hereditary peers as they are mostly Tories. He will keep the diocesan bishops in the Lords, not least as they supported Labour in opposing the last Conservative government's Rwanda scheme for asylum seekers. Indeed there was no commitment to any elected element of the upper house in the Labour manifesto at all
"I’m pretty sure I heard the cheers emanating from Liverpool when Liz Truss posted a video on Monday to mad-splain her ill-fated Budget two years ago."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/23/reeves-desperately-trying-pull-fuse-out-of-her-own-petard/
That you and the other politically blind on here dismiss him and his utterings as absurd is testament to the fact that it is you who are "above the fray" and/or have just not been paying attention to politics in the US these past few years.
Or or you just saying that people on a UK chatroom shouldn't offer their opinion on anything for which they are not the audience?
If the government does what their donor wants, they're as bad as the last lot. If not, they are (a little bit, in this specific instance) better than the last lot.
But if Dale Vince is calling for something in a public forum (rather than a quiet chat with the relevant minister) then he's a blooming amateur.
(How does the panel view corporate schmoozing at party conferences? How about on their fringes? Probably dodgy AF, but there is a tenuous work cover story.)
It is his usual political rhetoric. And of course you and Nige are more than welcome to offer your opinion on it but that's as much use, or as interesting as me saying I like blinking.
We are looking for some insight here and Trump being Trump is not "batshit" in US electoral terms. It is calculated to appeal to a US voting demographic.
By all means we can parade our virtue on here and be outraged at politicians engaging in political rhetoric, just that it is, on PB in particular, asinine.
And where is your evidence that the particular quote that was highlighted is net vote winner? You can certainly make a strong case that a Republican candidate with less batshit rhetoric would be much more likely to win.
These are pretty simple points that even a 6-year-old can understand, so I can assume that you are a troll - which is obvious given that you can't answer a simple question without resorting to insults.
Meat in school meals must be about item 1,000,000 on a list of issues a schools minister needs to care about..
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/fulton-center-mall-operator-lease-crime-homelessness-concerns-fidi-nyc/5222683/
Only 42 days of LOL and Vibes to go.
1) has the child had breakfast
2) is the child getting lunch
Offered in the spirit of helpfulness to all (inc Topping).
Trump addresses women: "I am your protector. I want to be your protector ... you will no longer be abandoned, lonely, or scared. You will no longer be in danger ... you will no longer be thinking about abortion."
If he is trying to appeal to women already in the cult, then it probably works but why do that if they are already committed?
If he is trying to appeal to uncommitted women, I'll hazard a guess that it won't work. Just a guess that most non-follower women will find his remark creepy, absurd even.
6 * joint salary is absolute madness lol.
In a new interview, Donald Trump is asked by Sharyl Attkisson what specifically he would do to bring down prices if elected president.
Here is his full response
https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1838235838427087023
FWIW, my view is that he has got significantly batshittier over the past five years or so.
Carrying the mission of the CoE into politics.
That is, the removal of religion from public discourse. And it's replacement by weak cups of tea and vague niceness.
If the Bishops are removed from the Lords, they might be replaced by people who believe in God or something dangerous like that.
Do you agree with the regularly aired idea that any non batshit GOP candidate (eg Haley) would be romping towards the White House atm?
Large earthquakes can trigger other quakes - but almost always relatively close to the original quake.
The extra cost of staffing and feeding would be worth it for the results. I’m completely guessing that last statement.
We're only half way there at £2.7tr. Plenty of headroom.
Come to think of it, the Blessed Diesel Cycle. Now let us contemplate the Holy Trinity and pray.
In the name of the crankshafts, AB, BC and CA. Amen.
https://x.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1838314352132395234
The world is getting weirder.
I would suggest that they improve their skillsets and earning potential before taking out such a mortgage.