Categories
The State of the Union, Week 4 – politicalbetting.com
The State of the Union, Week 4 – politicalbetting.com
Slight – very slight – movements to Harris at national level for everyone, but it’s still finely balanced. PEC has moved enough to make Harris a slight favourite.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The GOP has "morphed" into an "incredibly dangerous" party, says
@KenBurns
"It's going to be difficult for the Republican Party to figure out a way to escape the specific gravity of the darkness that engulfs it.”
https://x.com/AliVelshi/status/1837906220037873857
House looks close too, Senate likely goes GOP as even if they only gain WV and Montana they take control
It’s looking like a repeat of Florida 2000, but with much more inflammatory language used by both main parties, let’s hope it all plays out somewhere close to peacefully.
If Harris wins we'll be so quick to criticise her for accepting free tickets to an Oasis concert that we won't have time to consider why she won the election.
If HMG aren't going to do either they may as well down tools today and blow up the tunnels and viaducts already built because the rest is a total waste of time.
What the hell was Sunak thinking?
His core vote are too fat, old and stupid to sustain an armed insurrection. They are not exactly the Mahdi Army so the courts are their best hope of over-turning a Harris win.
an interesting later issue is that they are vaguely right about Manchester - that needs to be thought through with careful attention on how to implement it in a way that NPR could use it going forward rather than the current project which was solved the getting into Piccadilly solution by creating a longer term issue..
She at least can't connect fictions about the mess her predecessor left and didn't tell her about.
Those who let Trump into the Republican ecosystem in 2016 were pretty dense to do so.
In Montana, Sheehy (R) is 5% ahead of Tester (D) but there are no recent polls.
If Montana goes for Tester, Kamala still has to win so that Walz is VP and Chair of the new Senate with the casting vote for Dems to control the Senate.
Musk is now paying posters of his website whose posts have a high number of reader engagement. Does that make him a publisher ?
The fact that Twitter continues to promote, and in fact rewards, this account (and others like it) even as it routinely spreads invented, defamatory lies does make you wonder whether social-media platforms should have total immunity from libel lawsuits.
https://x.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1837882539484082299
GA - Trump +4
NC - Trump +2
AZ - Trump +5
With NC, it looks like Robinson is going to be ditched as the GOP candidate. Remember NC's early voting was delayed for most voters to Sep 24th because of the ruling on Kennedy's name coming off the ballot.
Unless it's very close, it will make no difference at all.
Which are long odds, but genuine chances for the Democrats to pick up a Senate seat.
"leading politicians" as a phrase reminds me of something... googles...
We class schools, you see, into four grades: Leading School, First-rate School, Good School, and School. Frankly,' said Mr Levy, 'School is pretty bad.....'
X/Twitter user numbers now down by almost a third over the last year in the UK, and by almost a fifth in the US.
https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1838194949847654712
America always does things bigger and bolder and 'major party being corrupted and infantilized by something rotten' is no exception.
Some of them are disbarred, a few are in prison, some of them have stopped doing stuff for him because he doesn't pay any bills, and some have flipped as cooperating witnesses. Not sure on the numbers. Habba-Dabba-Doo seems to have been put back into a PR-lady role after losing him hundreds of millions in judgements.
Some of his movement to me bear a certain resemblance to Eugène Terre'Blanche's 'Afrikaner Resistance Movement' who were going to overturn the new South Africa.
Remember him?
IIRC the AWB were all mouth and some actions, then seemed to stop being so front foot when three of them were shot dead by a policeman. TBF the shooting was in questionable circumstances (summary killing after a shooting incident, and the allegedly rogue black cop said 'war situation'.)
We’re all watching the British Open snooker from Cheltenham, right?
It could be that Harris's post debate surge is subsiding.
He has to withdraw and absentee ballots wnt out last Friday.
He's been under immense pressure to pull out, but seems determined not to.
Time is not on the side of GOP here.
There is more venom than honesty when we talk about trains. By my own experience trains are never late in New Zealand. FACT - explanation a train which arrives the same day as it sets off is defined as on time in New Zealand.
Actually for non-essential travel for those of us who are over 60 trains in the UK are bloody good. Certainly better than flying from Manchester to Heathrow in my view.
The biggest problem for me and other West Coast Main Line users is dragging my cases from Euston to Saint Pancras was much better when the y went from Waterloo. The greatest improvement which we could have well done without at Euston was replacing the excellent lists of all departing trains in the main concourse with fucking adverts for air freshner.
Add it to the averages.
I think Siena polls have tended in Trump's favour this cycle ? They might be right, or they might have a methodological bias.
HS2 phase 2a isn't particularly expensive, and is largely greenfield.
London Euston to Crewe (high speed relief) actually offers quite a lot of benefits, but Acton to Aston is a white elephant.
Thread with excerpts from “The Affirmative Action Empire: Nations and Nationalism in the Soviet Union, 1923-1939” by Terry Martin
https://x.com/Peter_Nimitz/status/1557561006439923713
Explains quite a bit about the Soviet determined aspects of the relationship between ethnic Ukrainians and Russians.
One big part of the cost of Euston is expanding underground capacity there..
the number of people going to the Eurostar is actually irrelevant to the issue because I doubt it's that many people at all..
I am in blood
Stepped in so far that, should I wade no more,
Returning were as tedious as go o’er
Just finish the damn thing
"Ooh, oh, we're halfway there.
Ooh, oh, livin' on a prayer"
He's a bit naif and Yankee about it, and makes the mistake of swallowing what he has been told about the Council & the politics (like the Dodgy Landlord in Parliament they blame the contractor, having signed the bloody contract themselves).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mOMe-ZXeoY
Get. It. Finished
Cool thing which I did not know about - compact between 17 states and DC to award their EC votes to the PV winner (but not in effect till more states, not sure how many, sign up, which seems unlikely)
Trouble with US polling is that some organisations involved are favourable to one side or the other. Yet even there Trafalgar have been showing Harris just ahead nationally and very close or a tie in some spots Georgia etc.
Harris has the momentum and betting on Trump is probably a distinct loser.
In order to avoid the courts knocking it down, it would probably need to be a constitutional amendment, which is very unlikely to happen.
As a confident cyclist I'm much happier with a bit of paint on the road than most of the "safer" cycle lanes.
The last poll was done before the debate which Harris clearly won , she was leading 50-45 in Arizona .
Now those figures are reversed .
In terms of NC it’s the turnout weighting which gives Trump a lead . In terms of NC and Robinson , if he withdraws then a new candidate won’t be named on the ballot , so voters will have to understand that a vote for Robinson is for the new candidate.
Liechtenstein voted to join the International Monetary Fund in a referendum on Sunday in a move aimed at integrating the tiny principality more deeply into multilateral affairs and creating a backstop for potential emergencies.
By a margin of 55.8% to 44.2%, voters in the wealthy country sandwiched between Switzerland and Austria backed becoming the 191st member of the Washington-based fund, according to an official government tally.
Membership was backed by Prince Alois, the acting head of state and heir to the throne, who said earlier this month it would underpin the financial stability of Liechtenstein and provide access to liquidity in the event of any emergency.
Foreign Minister Dominique Hasler said the country had opted for the IMF after careful consideration in order to pursue an active foreign policy and do it in a multilateral organization that made sense for a nation of its size.
Membership also offered an additional layer of security in case of potential crises, she told Reuters.
"Because we've seen in the past that even countries that are doing well can benefit from being an IMF member," she said.
Hasler said Liechtenstein would formally become a member after sealing its accession with the IMF on Oct. 21.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/liechtenstein-votes-join-imf-referendum-2024-09-22/
For official results see:
https://www.abstimmungen.li/resultat/33
SSI - Note that IMF membership won majority of those voting in every community, with highest approval in Vaduz, capital of Liechtenstein (61.5%) and lowest in Treisen (50.1%).
BTW (and maybe FYI) for those PBers who have NOT been keeping score at home, yesterday's vote was the 6th referendum in the Principality this year, with #7 scheduled for end of October - BOO!
21 January (67.9% turnout) of 20,950 registered)
> Mandatory photovoltaic panels on non-residential buildings = 66.6% Against
> Reform of the energy efficiency standards = 65.2% Against
> Electronic health records opt-in = 53.9% Against
25 February (66.5% turnout)
> Direct election of the members of government = 68.0% Against
16 June (67.0% turnout)
> Building a new state hospital = 53.7% For
22 September (60.0% turnout)
> Accession to the International Monetary Fund = 55.8% For
AND next month
27 October
> Privatization of Radio Liechtenstein
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Liechtenstein_referendums
I think Active Travel England (MattW will confirm I'm sure) have some evidence that painted cycle lanes actually increase the number of casualties. I assume that's because they induce a "my lane, your lane" response from drivers, leading to more close passes. Certainly my experience.
Also I am getting serious anger at HMG from my lefty friends. Last night (as I mentioned on here) one of my oldest Labour-voting friends was spitting venom about the stupidity of Starmer and Co, he didn't even wait for me to tease him about it: he launched right in. And a glimpse at the BTL comments on the Guardian, today, beneath the rolling blog about Reeves, offers quite the spectacle. The Labour lefties are furious about the austerity and WFA and all that, and the Blairities are furious about the grift and incompetence
-should I get the dress or the trouser suit ?
- should I ask Lord Alli to buy the shoes too ?
It's hard to imagine how they would find the space at St Pancras either unless they were planning on knocking the British Library down.
The plan was always (within reason) Old Oak Common AND Euston, it was not an either or.
Rough numbers were 1/3 disembark at OOC and the rest on to Euston. I think that over egged the OOC numbers due to Heathrow which is in itself out of capacity.
If it doesn't go to Euston then what was the point of making it high speed ?
Reeves enjoyed a week holiday in Padstow in July gifted to her by Richard Parker, Labour donor and now mayor of West Midlands and while logging her stay, she omitted her family members enjoyed the stay which benefit has to be declared
So hard to know what’s going to happen this time.
The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
The laid off HS2 workers will be installing the ZiL lanes London so desperately needs.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1838223973051404409
Ukranian infiltration of Russian social media channels?
The suggestion is that they’re paying Russian kids somewhere in the $10k range, through some sort of crypto transaction, to sabotage military aircraft at their local airfield. But that yes they are paying it, so more kids are signing up to Puck Futin.
The Elizabeth Line will not be able to cope with the volume of passengers if HS2 terminates at Old Oak Common.
We will be doing the okey cokey with exhortations to return to offices over home working, just to relieve the pressure. Which puts the cart in from of the horse somewhat.
https://inews.co.uk/news/hs2-journey-times-route-scaled-back-london-longer-elizabeth-line-2111667
It’s worth reflecting that while this would be bad for journey times from Manchester to Central London, it would be worse for journey times from commuter locations east of Old Oak Common, for whom Elizabeth Line trains would likely be too full to board; and perhaps for commuters from places like Reading and Swindon interchanging to the Elizabeth Line at Paddington, for the same reason.
Ed Miliband
"We believe the British people have the right to own and benefit from our natural resources "
which is why were closing down the North Sea
War is peace, freedom is slavery , ignorance is strength