Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
Labour would have to be madder than a box of frogs that's eaten stupidity pills to do the fourth, but never interrupt your opponent when they're making a mistake.
I do expect the Conservatives to have an opinion poll lead, by year end, albeit on a low vote share.
"There are thought to be hundreds of wild beavers living “illegally” in English rivers and more than 1,000 in Scotland."
Immigrants. Has anyone told Farage?
Has British Warerwats been informed? The planning departments of the various local councils?
We have illegal modification of waterways, destruction of natural habitat, unplanned home construction…..
Fines are not enough. Lock the environmental terrorists up!
British Waterways stopped existing under that name in 2012 .
It's the Canals and Rivers Trust now - lakes (or more particularly reservoirs for the maintenance of canals) have been removed, just to make it as complicated as possible.
Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?
My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.
As Cicero says (that sounds good!) the Tories will forever be the Party of Brexit and Rwanda. They will hang round the Tories necks like rotten fish and Suez and no amount of shaking will make it disappear. The only caveat being that the EU implodes but that is extremely unlikely as it's now the biggest and most successful trading block in the world with countries desperate to join.
“Western Europeans fail to understand the extent to which they were f*cked by the 2008 subprime crisis.
It's actually quite extraordinary: if you take the example of France in 2008 we were almost on par with the US in GDP per capita, $45.5k vs $48.5k, a small 6% difference.
Fast forward to 2023, 15 year later, and we still haven't recovered: we're at $44.4k GDP per capita, still lower than in 2008! Meanwhile the US is now at $81.6k or almost double what we are: from 6% difference to 100% difference in just 15 years...”
He’s ignoring FX rates but the point is still pretty good. Europe is NOT massively successful - and I’m not sure it is the biggest trading bloc any more either
The French vote for Le Pen and the Germans vote for the AdF for reasons, and they’re not all about migration. They sense relative decline. Germany in particular is in deep shit now and that’s the engine of the EU
Why? That's the important question.
[Stupid answers like "The Tories", "Brexit" or "Gordon Brown", will be ignored.]
The biggest immediate factor making much of Europe poorer is the war in Ukraine. Hence the BSW recent election campaign being all about "peace" in Ukraine.
The biggest single obstacle to peace in Ukraine, is Germany and the attitude of their politicians.
Flying Russian flags over Kiev and now hurry up and get the oil pumping again, isn’t “peace” for the Ukranians. Quite the opposite.
And yet Germany has given a lot more to Ukraine since the Russian invasion than, for example, the UK, so I'm not sure what point you think you're making with 'the biggest single obstacle to peace in Ukraine, is Germany'
I can only imagine that Sandpit is worrying about the possible influence of the far-right groups like the AfD on German policy with regard to Russia, which is, I guess, a legitimate fear. However, I'd have thought that the risk of a Trump presidency is probably of greater significance.
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
Labour would have to be madder than a box of frogs that's eaten stupidity pills to do the fourth, but never interrupt your opponent when they're making a mistake.
I do expect the Conservatives to have an opinion poll lead, by year end, albeit on a low vote share.
Tell the widow she needs to sell the house or take a reverse-mortgage. That’s definitely not going to lead to massive unpopularity, and a whole new avoidance industry for even quite modest homes in large parts of the country.
We know the Budget is going to be unpopular, but can they ride out the unpopularity for a couple of years as the election gets closer. At some point there needs to be a carrot as well as a stick.
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
They can't do the last one, it would mean widows being forced to sell their homes to pay IHT bills. The idea is repugnant. They will get rid of the 7 year gift rule though, or extend the taper to 10 or 15 years and they will definitely get rid of the IHT exemption on pensions (rightly tbf).
Reversing Osborne's IHT cut and the married transfer would also be the biggest gift from a PM to an opposition leader since May's dementia tax gift to Corbyn in 2017. I can't believe Starmer and Reeves would be that stupid, it would be a dream start for the new Tory leader as it would be hugely unpopular
How would cutting the married transfer work? Could it mean a recently bereaved person having to sell their home to pay IHT?
I question whether the American middle-class (which seems to be what they call their working class) has got much richer over that timescale.
To the extent it is true, probably AI, social media and tech is boosting incomes & salaries at the high-end - plus government borrowing - which is lifting their overall nominal GDP per head.
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
They can't do the last one, it would mean widows being forced to sell their homes to pay IHT bills. The idea is repugnant. They will get rid of the 7 year gift rule though, or extend the taper to 10 or 15 years and they will definitely get rid of the IHT exemption on pensions (rightly tbf).
Reversing Osborne's IHT cut and the married transfer would also be the biggest gift from a PM to an opposition leader since May's dementia tax gift to Corbyn in 2017. I can't believe Starmer and Reeves would be that stupid, it would be a dream start for the new Tory leader as it would be hugely unpopular
How would cutting the married transfer work? Could it mean a recently bereaved person having to sell their home to pay IHT?
In essence, a surviving spouse would have to pay 40% IHT on anything they inherited over £3325,000. There would probably be the option of granting HMRC a charge over the matrimonial home, payable upon the death of the second spouse.
I can't believe that Labour would be stupid enough to go for that, though.
"There are thought to be hundreds of wild beavers living “illegally” in English rivers and more than 1,000 in Scotland."
Immigrants. Has anyone told Farage?
Has British Warerwats been informed? The planning departments of the various local councils?
We have illegal modification of waterways, destruction of natural habitat, unplanned home construction…..
Fines are not enough. Lock the environmental terrorists up!
British Waterways stopped existing under that name in 2012 .
It's the Canals and Rivers Trust now - lakes (or more particularly reservoirs for the maintenance of canals) have been removed, just to make it as complicated as possible.
Came across a dead beaver in the middle of Warminster a few months back. Initially I didn't see it for what it was, but it really was there in the middle of the road. No idea where it came from, although the Wylie is close. So I can believe there are plenty out there.
Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?
My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.
As Cicero says (that sounds good!) the Tories will forever be the Party of Brexit and Rwanda. They will hang round the Tories necks like rotten fish and Suez and no amount of shaking will make it disappear. The only caveat being that the EU implodes but that is extremely unlikely as it's now the biggest and most successful trading block in the world with countries desperate to join.
“Western Europeans fail to understand the extent to which they were f*cked by the 2008 subprime crisis.
It's actually quite extraordinary: if you take the example of France in 2008 we were almost on par with the US in GDP per capita, $45.5k vs $48.5k, a small 6% difference.
Fast forward to 2023, 15 year later, and we still haven't recovered: we're at $44.4k GDP per capita, still lower than in 2008! Meanwhile the US is now at $81.6k or almost double what we are: from 6% difference to 100% difference in just 15 years...”
He’s ignoring FX rates but the point is still pretty good. Europe is NOT massively successful - and I’m not sure it is the biggest trading bloc any more either
The French vote for Le Pen and the Germans vote for the AdF for reasons, and they’re not all about migration. They sense relative decline. Germany in particular is in deep shit now and that’s the engine of the EU
Why? That's the important question.
[Stupid answers like "The Tories", "Brexit" or "Gordon Brown", will be ignored.]
The biggest immediate factor making much of Europe poorer is the war in Ukraine. Hence the BSW recent election campaign being all about "peace" in Ukraine.
The biggest single obstacle to peace in Ukraine, is Germany and the attitude of their politicians.
Flying Russian flags over Kiev and now hurry up and get the oil pumping again, isn’t “peace” for the Ukranians. Quite the opposite.
And yet Germany has given a lot more to Ukraine since the Russian invasion than, for example, the UK, so I'm not sure what point you think you're making with 'the biggest single obstacle to peace in Ukraine, is Germany'
The introduction to the English Wiki page for the BSW party says the following.
“The association is sceptical of both green politics and support for Ukraine in the Russo-Ukrainian War which led to the party being seen as Russophilic.”
It goes on to say:
“The political positions of the BSW include further restrictions on immigration, a plan for deglobalization, opposition to green politics, ending military aid to Ukraine, and a negotiated settlement to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
In other words, they’ll happy tie the hands of the Ukranians behind their backs until they are forced to abandon their country to the invaders.
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
Labour would have to be madder than a box of frogs that's eaten stupidity pills to do the fourth, but never interrupt your opponent when they're making a mistake.
I do expect the Conservatives to have an opinion poll lead, by year end, albeit on a low vote share.
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
Labour would have to be madder than a box of frogs that's eaten stupidity pills to do the fourth, but never interrupt your opponent when they're making a mistake.
I do expect the Conservatives to have an opinion poll lead, by year end, albeit on a low vote share.
An extended period with no party scoring above 30% does seem quite likely.
Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?
My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.
As Cicero says (that sounds good!) the Tories will forever be the Party of Brexit and Rwanda. They will hang round the Tories necks like rotten fish and Suez and no amount of shaking will make it disappear. The only caveat being that the EU implodes but that is extremely unlikely as it's now the biggest and most successful trading block in the world with countries desperate to join.
“Western Europeans fail to understand the extent to which they were f*cked by the 2008 subprime crisis.
It's actually quite extraordinary: if you take the example of France in 2008 we were almost on par with the US in GDP per capita, $45.5k vs $48.5k, a small 6% difference.
Fast forward to 2023, 15 year later, and we still haven't recovered: we're at $44.4k GDP per capita, still lower than in 2008! Meanwhile the US is now at $81.6k or almost double what we are: from 6% difference to 100% difference in just 15 years...”
He’s ignoring FX rates but the point is still pretty good. Europe is NOT massively successful - and I’m not sure it is the biggest trading bloc any more either
The French vote for Le Pen and the Germans vote for the AdF for reasons, and they’re not all about migration. They sense relative decline. Germany in particular is in deep shit now and that’s the engine of the EU
Why? That's the important question.
[Stupid answers like "The Tories", "Brexit" or "Gordon Brown", will be ignored.]
The biggest immediate factor making much of Europe poorer is the war in Ukraine. Hence the BSW recent election campaign being all about "peace" in Ukraine.
The biggest single obstacle to peace in Ukraine, is Germany and the attitude of their politicians.
Flying Russian flags over Kiev and now hurry up and get the oil pumping again, isn’t “peace” for the Ukranians. Quite the opposite.
And yet Germany has given a lot more to Ukraine since the Russian invasion than, for example, the UK, so I'm not sure what point you think you're making with 'the biggest single obstacle to peace in Ukraine, is Germany'
The introduction to the English Wiki page for the BSW party says the following.
“The association is sceptical of both green politics and support for Ukraine in the Russo-Ukrainian War which led to the party being seen as Russophilic.”
It goes on to say:
“The political positions of the BSW include further restrictions on immigration, a plan for deglobalization, opposition to green politics, ending military aid to Ukraine, and a negotiated settlement to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
In other words, they’ll happy tie the hands of the Ukranians behind their backs until they are forced to abandon their country to the invaders.
Yes the BSW are a bunch of arseholes, but they have no power over German foreign policy, unlike your Republican friends in Congress.
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
The thing is, I know of countless people who have had their phones stolen, they’ve gone to the police to say find my iPhone says this phone is at this property and the police go, sorry cannot help you, here’s a crime reference number.
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
The thing is, I know of countless people who have had their phones stolen, they’ve gone to the police to say find my iPhone says this phone is at this property and the police go, sorry cannot help you, here’s a crime reference number.
Exactly. The phone companies have put in place a system, but it is useless if the police won't do anything. Same with bikes and people putting AirTags on them.
The core issue isn't the tech company, its the police and government approach to tackling shitty crime. Same with the way shoplifting has got out of hand and brazen stealing of bikes in the middle of the day.
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
The thing is, I know of countless people who have had their phones stolen, they’ve gone to the police to say find my iPhone says this phone is at this property and the police go, sorry cannot help you, here’s a crime reference number.
This seems like the sort of situation that would encourage vigilantes.
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
If only there was a recent example of when organised disorder very quickly stops happening, once the police start arresting their way out of the problem.
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
If only there was a very recent example of when organised disorder very quickly stops happening, once the police start arresting their way out of the problem.
But if you go on Facebook and post something spicy about how the police are doing nothing and it might be organised by foreign gangs....
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
The thing is, I know of countless people who have had their phones stolen, they’ve gone to the police to say find my iPhone says this phone is at this property and the police go, sorry cannot help you, here’s a crime reference number.
This seems like the sort of situation that would encourage vigilantes.
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Osborne and Truss cut tax, Sunak and Cleverly cut immigration
lol if I eat a million sweets one month and then eat only 999,9999 sweets the next months technically I can say I ate fewer sweets!
And of course in London you can spot the snatchers....all in black, balaclava on in the middle of the hottest day of summer and riding an illegally modified, normally stolen, e-bike.
Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?
My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.
As Cicero says (that sounds good!) the Tories will forever be the Party of Brexit and Rwanda. They will hang round the Tories necks like rotten fish and Suez and no amount of shaking will make it disappear. The only caveat being that the EU implodes but that is extremely unlikely as it's now the biggest and most successful trading block in the world with countries desperate to join.
“Western Europeans fail to understand the extent to which they were f*cked by the 2008 subprime crisis.
It's actually quite extraordinary: if you take the example of France in 2008 we were almost on par with the US in GDP per capita, $45.5k vs $48.5k, a small 6% difference.
Fast forward to 2023, 15 year later, and we still haven't recovered: we're at $44.4k GDP per capita, still lower than in 2008! Meanwhile the US is now at $81.6k or almost double what we are: from 6% difference to 100% difference in just 15 years...”
He’s ignoring FX rates but the point is still pretty good. Europe is NOT massively successful - and I’m not sure it is the biggest trading bloc any more either
The French vote for Le Pen and the Germans vote for the AdF for reasons, and they’re not all about migration. They sense relative decline. Germany in particular is in deep shit now and that’s the engine of the EU
Why? That's the important question.
[Stupid answers like "The Tories", "Brexit" or "Gordon Brown", will be ignored.]
Germany imposed austerity on the Eurozone, as Osborne did on Britain. It did not work. Crudely, who will you export to when all your customers are tightening their belts? Remember Germany refusing to bail out Greece in some sort of morality tale where Greeks dodged taxes and bought Mercedes and BMWs? (And we should note Osborne's Plan A might even have worked if it were not for European austerity.) Contrast this with America turning the taps on.
Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?
My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.
As Cicero says (that sounds good!) the Tories will forever be the Party of Brexit and Rwanda. They will hang round the Tories necks like rotten fish and Suez and no amount of shaking will make it disappear. The only caveat being that the EU implodes but that is extremely unlikely as it's now the biggest and most successful trading block in the world with countries desperate to join.
“Western Europeans fail to understand the extent to which they were f*cked by the 2008 subprime crisis.
It's actually quite extraordinary: if you take the example of France in 2008 we were almost on par with the US in GDP per capita, $45.5k vs $48.5k, a small 6% difference.
Fast forward to 2023, 15 year later, and we still haven't recovered: we're at $44.4k GDP per capita, still lower than in 2008! Meanwhile the US is now at $81.6k or almost double what we are: from 6% difference to 100% difference in just 15 years...”
He’s ignoring FX rates but the point is still pretty good. Europe is NOT massively successful - and I’m not sure it is the biggest trading bloc any more either
The French vote for Le Pen and the Germans vote for the AdF for reasons, and they’re not all about migration. They sense relative decline. Germany in particular is in deep shit now and that’s the engine of the EU
Why? That's the important question.
[Stupid answers like "The Tories", "Brexit" or "Gordon Brown", will be ignored.]
Germany imposed austerity on the Eurozone, as Osborne did on Britain. It did not work. Crudely, who will you export to when all your customers are tightening their belts? Remember Germany refusing to bail out Greece in some sort of morality tale where Greeks dodged taxes and bought Mercedes and BMWs? (And we should note Osborne's Plan A might even have worked if it were not for European austerity.) Contrast this with America turning the taps on.
tbf the Greek government DID fail to collect taxes on a massive scale, so there was an issue of moral hazard. Not that I agree with German policy.
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
If only there was a very recent example of when organised disorder very quickly stops happening, once the police start arresting their way out of the problem.
But if you go on Facebook and post something spicy about how the police are doing nothing and it might be organised by foreign gangs....
£1,000 of stolen goods from an aggravated theft should be an immediate custodial sentence, even if that’s simply a phone or a watch mugged from someone on the street. It would stop almost overnight.
Large forces like the Met should put a couple of dozen officers on the case, tracking ‘find my’ and AirTags. I’ll take a good guess that they find more than one item of stolen property in the house.
I guess we know why Brompton’s sales are up so much, because no-one dares leave their bike anywhere any more.
And of course in London you can spot the snatchers....all in black, balaclava on in the middle of the hottest day of summer and riding an illegally modified, normally stolen, e-bike.
I've heard it suggested that ANPR cameras should alert police when detecting groups of half a dozen or so motorbikes whose number plates have fallen off.
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
The thing is, I know of countless people who have had their phones stolen, they’ve gone to the police to say find my iPhone says this phone is at this property and the police go, sorry cannot help you, here’s a crime reference number.
This seems like the sort of situation that would encourage vigilantes.
It does.
Some years ago, a friend, who come down in the world ended up living on a very run down council estate.
The corner shop was regularly robbed by the local drug addicts.
After a while that stopped.
He’d made friends with the shop owner, who told him it was because he was a member of a local social club. The guy running the club, a regular in the shop, had seen the shop keepers problem. He suggested he join the club - and not go there.
And of course in London you can spot the snatchers....all in black, balaclava on in the middle of the hottest day of summer and riding an illegally modified, normally stolen, e-bike.
The police round me have been confiscating what are technically motorcycles and charging the owners with every motoring offence under the sun. Probably a good way to crack down on these people.
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
If only there was a very recent example of when organised disorder very quickly stops happening, once the police start arresting their way out of the problem.
But if you go on Facebook and post something spicy about how the police are doing nothing and it might be organised by foreign gangs....
£1,000 of stolen goods from an aggravated theft should be an immediate custodial sentence, even if that’s simply a phone or a watch mugged from someone on the street. It would stop almost overnight.
Large forces like the Met should put a couple of dozen officers on the case, tracking ‘find my’ and AirTags. I’ll take a good guess that they find more than one item of stolen property in the house.
I guess we know why Brompton’s sales are up so much, because no-one dares leave their bike anywhere any more.
If Starmer wanted to get his popularity back up, really cracking down on low level crime like this and shoplifting, plus really going after knife crime. But that would require more stop and search, and that's racist and stuff.
Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?
My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.
As Cicero says (that sounds good!) the Tories will forever be the Party of Brexit and Rwanda. They will hang round the Tories necks like rotten fish and Suez and no amount of shaking will make it disappear. The only caveat being that the EU implodes but that is extremely unlikely as it's now the biggest and most successful trading block in the world with countries desperate to join.
“Western Europeans fail to understand the extent to which they were f*cked by the 2008 subprime crisis.
It's actually quite extraordinary: if you take the example of France in 2008 we were almost on par with the US in GDP per capita, $45.5k vs $48.5k, a small 6% difference.
Fast forward to 2023, 15 year later, and we still haven't recovered: we're at $44.4k GDP per capita, still lower than in 2008! Meanwhile the US is now at $81.6k or almost double what we are: from 6% difference to 100% difference in just 15 years...”
He’s ignoring FX rates but the point is still pretty good. Europe is NOT massively successful - and I’m not sure it is the biggest trading bloc any more either
The French vote for Le Pen and the Germans vote for the AdF for reasons, and they’re not all about migration. They sense relative decline. Germany in particular is in deep shit now and that’s the engine of the EU
Why? That's the important question.
[Stupid answers like "The Tories", "Brexit" or "Gordon Brown", will be ignored.]
The biggest immediate factor making much of Europe poorer is the war in Ukraine. Hence the BSW recent election campaign being all about "peace" in Ukraine.
The biggest single obstacle to peace in Ukraine, is Germany and the attitude of their politicians.
It's a factor but it's nowhere near the biggest obstacle. The biggest obstacle is the fact that neither side looks remotely capable of forcing a victory that's decisive enough to sell politically.
"There are thought to be hundreds of wild beavers living “illegally” in English rivers and more than 1,000 in Scotland."
Immigrants. Has anyone told Farage?
Has British Warerwats been informed? The planning departments of the various local councils?
We have illegal modification of waterways, destruction of natural habitat, unplanned home construction…..
Fines are not enough. Lock the environmental terrorists up!
British Waterways stopped existing under that name in 2012 .
It's the Canals and Rivers Trust now - lakes (or more particularly reservoirs for the maintenance of canals) have been removed, just to make it as complicated as possible.
When nationalisation happens now you do the same but just put a "Great" in front of the British, so it gives the nice bake-off vibes.
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
They can't do the last one, it would mean widows being forced to sell their homes to pay IHT bills. The idea is repugnant. They will get rid of the 7 year gift rule though, or extend the taper to 10 or 15 years and they will definitely get rid of the IHT exemption on pensions (rightly tbf).
Reversing Osborne's IHT cut and the married transfer would also be the biggest gift from a PM to an opposition leader since May's dementia tax gift to Corbyn in 2017. I can't believe Starmer and Reeves would be that stupid, it would be a dream start for the new Tory leader as it would be hugely unpopular
How would cutting the married transfer work? Could it mean a recently bereaved person having to sell their home to pay IHT?
This is a niche but real injustice affecting pairs of siblings who have lived together all their lives. If they were anyone else they could circumvent the problem with a civil partnership.
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
If only there was a very recent example of when organised disorder very quickly stops happening, once the police start arresting their way out of the problem.
But if you go on Facebook and post something spicy about how the police are doing nothing and it might be organised by foreign gangs....
£1,000 of stolen goods from an aggravated theft should be an immediate custodial sentence, even if that’s simply a phone or a watch mugged from someone on the street. It would stop almost overnight.
Large forces like the Met should put a couple of dozen officers on the case, tracking ‘find my’ and AirTags. I’ll take a good guess that they find more than one item of stolen property in the house.
I guess we know why Brompton’s sales are up so much, because no-one dares leave their bike anywhere any more.
If Starmer wanted to get his popularity back up, really cracking down on low level crime like this and shoplifting, plus really going after knife crime. But that would require more stop and search, and that's racist and stuff.
Phone and bikes wouldn’t require stop and search.
Phones locate themselves - and once the word got out that the police were actually doing something, people would hide AirTags or similar in their bikes.
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
If only there was a very recent example of when organised disorder very quickly stops happening, once the police start arresting their way out of the problem.
But if you go on Facebook and post something spicy about how the police are doing nothing and it might be organised by foreign gangs....
£1,000 of stolen goods from an aggravated theft should be an immediate custodial sentence, even if that’s simply a phone or a watch mugged from someone on the street. It would stop almost overnight.
Large forces like the Met should put a couple of dozen officers on the case, tracking ‘find my’ and AirTags. I’ll take a good guess that they find more than one item of stolen property in the house.
I guess we know why Brompton’s sales are up so much, because no-one dares leave their bike anywhere any more.
If Starmer wanted to get his popularity back up, really cracking down on low level crime like this and shoplifting, plus really going after knife crime. But that would require more stop and search, and that's racist and stuff.
Phone and bikes wouldn’t require stop and search.
Phones locate themselves - and once the word got out that the police were actually doing something, people would hide AirTags or similar in their bikes.
Well one approach is to be more much proactive in stopping those on the illegally modified / stolen e-bikes. And I was talking more about knife crime for stop and search, but everything is connected. Gangs are stealing the mobiles and bikes, gangs are the ones stealing masses from shops, and particularly the yutt on the bikes carry knives (as we have seen when people try to stop them brazenly stealing a bike, so people don't).
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
The thing is, I know of countless people who have had their phones stolen, they’ve gone to the police to say find my iPhone says this phone is at this property and the police go, sorry cannot help you, here’s a crime reference number.
This seems like the sort of situation that would encourage vigilantes.
It does.
Some years ago, a friend, who come down in the world ended up living on a very run down council estate.
The corner shop was regularly robbed by the local drug addicts.
After a while that stopped.
He’d made friends with the shop owner, who told him it was because he was a member of a local social club. The guy running the club, a regular in the shop, had seen the shop keepers problem. He suggested he join the club - and not go there.
Seemed like quite a reasonable system.
A lawyer once told me about a pub that was visited by a protection racket, who was persuaded to install that group's fruit machines. The publican contacted Company A, his existing supplier, and explained he could not continue with their contract so could they remove their machines, which they did.
A month or so later the protection racket returned, explained that profits were not what they'd hoped for, and took their machines out so the publican was free to go back to Company A.
Which years later he discovered was a front for the twins.
A lawyer once told me about a pub that was visited by a protection racket, who was persuaded to install that group's fruit machines. He contacted Company A, his existing supplier, and explained he could not continue with their contract so could they remove their machines, which they did.
A month or so later the protection racket returned, explained that profits were not what they'd hoped for, and took their machines out so the publican was free to go back to Company A.
Which years later he discovered was a front for the twins.
LOL
Competition in the fruit machine rackets was brutal…,
!Snip! In essence, a surviving spouse would have to pay 40% IHT on anything they inherited over £325,000. There would probably be the option of granting HMRC a charge over the matrimonial home, payable upon the death of the second spouse.
I can't believe that Labour would be stupid enough to go for that, though.
How does it work currently for an unmarried couple that own a house jointly, & a married one for that matter both with and without children.
And of course in London you can spot the snatchers....all in black, balaclava on in the middle of the hottest day of summer and riding an illegally modified, normally stolen, e-bike.
I've heard it suggested that ANPR cameras should alert police when detecting groups of half a dozen or so motorbikes whose number plates have fallen off.
Plod would be run off their feet. Plenty of such groups. Not least in Parliament Sq often where you would expect there to be some sort of basic security presence. They then go wheelie-ing down Birdcage Walk but sadly no one from any of the Regt HQs ever seems to be looking out of the window with an SA80.
With all the doom forecasting on here (and no doubt everywhere) about what might appear in October it's job done for Lab's expectation management when it turns out you will only have to sell one kidney to pay for basic food and energy rather than the two.
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
Labour would have to be madder than a box of frogs that's eaten stupidity pills to do the fourth, but never interrupt your opponent when they're making a mistake.
I do expect the Conservatives to have an opinion poll lead, by year end, albeit on a low vote share.
On the fourth one, maybe introduce a 7-year rule, like for other gifts? Why wait until your death-bed before you trust your partner not to run off with half the money if you marry them?
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
If only there was a very recent example of when organised disorder very quickly stops happening, once the police start arresting their way out of the problem.
But if you go on Facebook and post something spicy about how the police are doing nothing and it might be organised by foreign gangs....
£1,000 of stolen goods from an aggravated theft should be an immediate custodial sentence, even if that’s simply a phone or a watch mugged from someone on the street. It would stop almost overnight.
Large forces like the Met should put a couple of dozen officers on the case, tracking ‘find my’ and AirTags. I’ll take a good guess that they find more than one item of stolen property in the house.
I guess we know why Brompton’s sales are up so much, because no-one dares leave their bike anywhere any more.
If Starmer wanted to get his popularity back up, really cracking down on low level crime like this and shoplifting, plus really going after knife crime. But that would require more stop and search, and that's racist and stuff.
And bicycle theft! The police just shrug and it's yet another reason why people are put off cycling.
All it takes is an airtag and a couple of officers. It's usually just one gang running the operation out of a van and a warehouse.
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
If only there was a very recent example of when organised disorder very quickly stops happening, once the police start arresting their way out of the problem.
But if you go on Facebook and post something spicy about how the police are doing nothing and it might be organised by foreign gangs....
£1,000 of stolen goods from an aggravated theft should be an immediate custodial sentence, even if that’s simply a phone or a watch mugged from someone on the street. It would stop almost overnight.
Large forces like the Met should put a couple of dozen officers on the case, tracking ‘find my’ and AirTags. I’ll take a good guess that they find more than one item of stolen property in the house.
I guess we know why Brompton’s sales are up so much, because no-one dares leave their bike anywhere any more.
If Starmer wanted to get his popularity back up, really cracking down on low level crime like this and shoplifting, plus really going after knife crime. But that would require more stop and search, and that's racist and stuff.
There's a lot could be done without ‘racist’ stop and search, like following tracking devices and raiding warehouses and sheds to recover stolen phones, bikes and cars before they can be shipped abroad. Targeting gangs controlling these and drug trades, even if that might disrupt the social lives of hardworking cocaine users!
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
The thing is, I know of countless people who have had their phones stolen, they’ve gone to the police to say find my iPhone says this phone is at this property and the police go, sorry cannot help you, here’s a crime reference number.
This seems like the sort of situation that would encourage vigilantes.
It does.
Some years ago, a friend, who come down in the world ended up living on a very run down council estate.
The corner shop was regularly robbed by the local drug addicts.
After a while that stopped.
He’d made friends with the shop owner, who told him it was because he was a member of a local social club. The guy running the club, a regular in the shop, had seen the shop keepers problem. He suggested he join the club - and not go there.
Seemed like quite a reasonable system.
A lawyer once told me about a pub that was visited by a protection racket, who was persuaded to install that group's fruit machines. The publican contacted Company A, his existing supplier, and explained he could not continue with their contract so could they remove their machines, which they did.
A month or so later the protection racket returned, explained that profits were not what they'd hoped for, and took their machines out so the publican was free to go back to Company A.
Which years later he discovered was a front for the twins.
Fruit machines being a great way to launder £ presumably?
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
Labour would have to be madder than a box of frogs that's eaten stupidity pills to do the fourth, but never interrupt your opponent when they're making a mistake.
I do expect the Conservatives to have an opinion poll lead, by year end, albeit on a low vote share.
The most interesting thing to me is how far Starmers personal popularity will sink
!Snip! In essence, a surviving spouse would have to pay 40% IHT on anything they inherited over £325,000. There would probably be the option of granting HMRC a charge over the matrimonial home, payable upon the death of the second spouse.
I can't believe that Labour would be stupid enough to go for that, though.
How does it work currently for an unmarried couple that own a house jointly, & a married one for that matter both with and without children.
I was thinking that. About 95% ofmy assets are formally jointly owned with my wife, and in practice the rest of it - like my car - is de facto jointly owned. Either of us has access to all of it. If I died there wouldn't be any need for anything complicated - it's all basically hers already.
With all the doom forecasting on here (and no doubt everywhere) about what might appear in October it's job done for Lab's expectation management when it turns out you will only have to sell one kidney to pay for basic food and energy rather than the two.
Yep, it's absolutely brilliant politics from Labour. Hammer everyone with bad news, then the reality looks much better. Obvious, but there are none so blind than those that cannot see.
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
The thing is, I know of countless people who have had their phones stolen, they’ve gone to the police to say find my iPhone says this phone is at this property and the police go, sorry cannot help you, here’s a crime reference number.
This seems like the sort of situation that would encourage vigilantes.
It does.
Some years ago, a friend, who come down in the world ended up living on a very run down council estate.
The corner shop was regularly robbed by the local drug addicts.
After a while that stopped.
He’d made friends with the shop owner, who told him it was because he was a member of a local social club. The guy running the club, a regular in the shop, had seen the shop keepers problem. He suggested he join the club - and not go there.
Seemed like quite a reasonable system.
A lawyer once told me about a pub that was visited by a protection racket, who was persuaded to install that group's fruit machines. The publican contacted Company A, his existing supplier, and explained he could not continue with their contract so could they remove their machines, which they did.
A month or so later the protection racket returned, explained that profits were not what they'd hoped for, and took their machines out so the publican was free to go back to Company A.
Which years later he discovered was a front for the twins.
Fruit machines being a great way to launder £ presumably?
With all the doom forecasting on here (and no doubt everywhere) about what might appear in October it's job done for Lab's expectation management when it turns out you will only have to sell one kidney to pay for basic food and energy rather than the two.
Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?
My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.
As Cicero says (that sounds good!) the Tories will forever be the Party of Brexit and Rwanda. They will hang round the Tories necks like rotten fish and Suez and no amount of shaking will make it disappear. The only caveat being that the EU implodes but that is extremely unlikely as it's now the biggest and most successful trading block in the world with countries desperate to join.
“Western Europeans fail to understand the extent to which they were f*cked by the 2008 subprime crisis.
It's actually quite extraordinary: if you take the example of France in 2008 we were almost on par with the US in GDP per capita, $45.5k vs $48.5k, a small 6% difference.
Fast forward to 2023, 15 year later, and we still haven't recovered: we're at $44.4k GDP per capita, still lower than in 2008! Meanwhile the US is now at $81.6k or almost double what we are: from 6% difference to 100% difference in just 15 years...”
He’s ignoring FX rates but the point is still pretty good. Europe is NOT massively successful - and I’m not sure it is the biggest trading bloc any more either
The French vote for Le Pen and the Germans vote for the AdF for reasons, and they’re not all about migration. They sense relative decline. Germany in particular is in deep shit now and that’s the engine of the EU
Why? That's the important question.
[Stupid answers like "The Tories", "Brexit" or "Gordon Brown", will be ignored.]
The biggest immediate factor making much of Europe poorer is the war in Ukraine. Hence the BSW recent election campaign being all about "peace" in Ukraine.
The biggest single obstacle to peace in Ukraine, is Germany and the attitude of their politicians.
It's a factor but it's nowhere near the biggest obstacle. The biggest obstacle is the fact that neither side looks remotely capable of forcing a victory that's decisive enough to sell politically.
Ukraine & @Dura_Ace in the same comment reminded me of this thing that floated past my social media feed yesterday:
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
Labour would have to be madder than a box of frogs that's eaten stupidity pills to do the fourth, but never interrupt your opponent when they're making a mistake.
I do expect the Conservatives to have an opinion poll lead, by year end, albeit on a low vote share.
The most interesting thing to me is how far Starmers personal popularity will sink
Why is Starmer's personal popularity interesting? Can we bet on it? I'd imagine he intends to retire after the next election anyway as he is no longer young and places a high value on family life (even if he might change his mind as the date looms, as often happens to those at the top in private companies as well as politics).
Ivan Toney’s deadline day move to Saudi Arabia could see him land the UK equivalent of £1 million a week after bonuses are included.
The England striker signed for Al-Ahli last week on a dramatic final day of the summer window. The 28-year-old was minutes away from missing out on leaving Brentford as Victor Osimhen also pushed for a move to the Saudi club.
Toney’s four-year deal will land him basic pay of around £400,000 per week after tax. It is understood add-ons and bonuses related to performance would take his salary to towards £500,000 across his contract. To earn the same take-home pay in the UK after tax would need wages close to £1 million per week.
It is an astonishing pay rise for a player who was on less than £50,000 a week at Brentford, where he played for four seasons having joined them from Peterborough when he played in League One.
!Snip! In essence, a surviving spouse would have to pay 40% IHT on anything they inherited over £325,000. There would probably be the option of granting HMRC a charge over the matrimonial home, payable upon the death of the second spouse.
I can't believe that Labour would be stupid enough to go for that, though.
How does it work currently for an unmarried couple that own a house jointly, & a married one for that matter both with and without children.
I was thinking that. About 95% ofmy assets are formally jointly owned with my wife, and in practice the rest of it - like my car - is de facto jointly owned. Either of us has access to all of it. If I died there wouldn't be any need for anything complicated - it's all basically hers already.
As above, is this not about carrying an allowance over?
At the moment if you leave everything to your spouse, none of your allowance is used. Indeed, this is one of the few benefits of being married.
That allowance is currently carried over, so when your spouse dies and (potentially) your children inherit, the £325k allowance that you did not use is added to their £325k allowance to make it £650k.
Dropping this wouldn't mean IHT between spouses but an extra £130k bill to the children.
Normally the preserve of PPV and the weekend/night, there's an actual boxing event on Sky Sports Main Event (Without any additional selling price) Inoue - Doheny. Bookies give home town Tokyo favourite Inoue a 97% chance and the Irish chap 3%.
With all the doom forecasting on here (and no doubt everywhere) about what might appear in October it's job done for Lab's expectation management when it turns out you will only have to sell one kidney to pay for basic food and energy rather than the two.
Yep, it's absolutely brilliant politics from Labour. Hammer everyone with bad news, then the reality looks much better. Obvious, but there are none so blind than those that cannot see.
Funny thing is, it's not even Labour; it's the Tory press, led by the Telegraph.
With all the doom forecasting on here (and no doubt everywhere) about what might appear in October it's job done for Lab's expectation management when it turns out you will only have to sell one kidney to pay for basic food and energy rather than the two.
Make working pensioners pay NI.
That would be bureaucratically messy if they need to remove the link between NI and qualification for the state pension (which tbf some would welcome).
Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?
My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.
Yes, perhaps each MP should spend tens of thousands of their own money on Facebook ads like Hunt did. Great plan.
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
You are correct and some of these or even all of these are likely to come to pass. You could argue the Labour Party was disingenuous that they didn't spell out that they needed to generate income via taxation or borrowing after the election should they win, in the short term at least. Revenue from economic growth is not a tap that can be turned on and off.
However the Conservatives were in my opinion even more disingenuous, suggesting that not only was there not a requirement to generate revenue, but they had the wherewithal to reduce revenue with continued NI cuts and services would not be compromised even in the light of increased defence spending. They are still lost in that lie.
I realise it is academic now, but how would the Conservatives balance the books with even the merest hint of realism?
It's the shame we didn't have a followup question on why the parties or similar / different.
Vaguely competent is the reason why Labour / Tories look different - sadly I don't expect that difference to last long at which point the "they are all the same" will reappear..
I'm not sure 'competence' is the dividing line so much as 'wierdness'. Take a peek at focus group opinions of Mr Jenrick and you may detect the size of the problem
Ivan Toney’s deadline day move to Saudi Arabia could see him land the UK equivalent of £1 million a week after bonuses are included.
The England striker signed for Al-Ahli last week on a dramatic final day of the summer window. The 28-year-old was minutes away from missing out on leaving Brentford as Victor Osimhen also pushed for a move to the Saudi club.
Toney’s four-year deal will land him basic pay of around £400,000 per week after tax. It is understood add-ons and bonuses related to performance would take his salary to towards £500,000 across his contract. To earn the same take-home pay in the UK after tax would need wages close to £1 million per week.
It is an astonishing pay rise for a player who was on less than £50,000 a week at Brentford, where he played for four seasons having joined them from Peterborough when he played in League One.
!Snip! In essence, a surviving spouse would have to pay 40% IHT on anything they inherited over £325,000. There would probably be the option of granting HMRC a charge over the matrimonial home, payable upon the death of the second spouse.
I can't believe that Labour would be stupid enough to go for that, though.
How does it work currently for an unmarried couple that own a house jointly, & a married one for that matter both with and without children.
I was thinking that. About 95% ofmy assets are formally jointly owned with my wife, and in practice the rest of it - like my car - is de facto jointly owned. Either of us has access to all of it. If I died there wouldn't be any need for anything complicated - it's all basically hers already.
As above, is this not about carrying an allowance over?
At the moment if you leave everything to your spouse, none of your allowance is used.
That allowance is currently carried over, so when your spouse dies and (potentially) your children inherit, the £325k allowance that you did not use is added to their £325k allowance to make it £650k.
Dropping this wouldn't mean IHT between spouses.
If I died tomorrow all my assets would go to my daughter ex those nominated to my other half. That'd be my Peugeot,lifetime ISA and a few savings accounts. The big money is in nominated assets of pension/Death in service 4*salary, and house equity (Jointly owned) so it wouldn't be an immediate issue for my other half but would land my daughter a tax bill down the line maybe. On the to do list, or not if Labour makes this change lol.
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
They can't do the last one, it would mean widows being forced to sell their homes to pay IHT bills. The idea is repugnant. They will get rid of the 7 year gift rule though, or extend the taper to 10 or 15 years and they will definitely get rid of the IHT exemption on pensions (rightly tbf).
Reversing Osborne's IHT cut and the married transfer would also be the biggest gift from a PM to an opposition leader since May's dementia tax gift to Corbyn in 2017. I can't believe Starmer and Reeves would be that stupid, it would be a dream start for the new Tory leader as it would be hugely unpopular
I don't wish to agree with you @HYUFD on this, but I have to, you are right. Labour and the Tories competed on the give away on this and Osborne's move was inspired regarding it's popularity, even though I disagree with it. So I think you are absolutely right.
@MaxPB you are misunderstanding how it works. No widow would be forced to sell as transfers to widows are exempt from IHT. It is because of this there is no IHT. So not made homeless. But that also means there is no tax free allowance, so on transfer to the children there is only one allowance effectively on two transfers, but now the funds are from one person and not a husband and wife so effectively double the money being taxed, particularly if the deaths are close together which is often the case.
Although I don't agree with this allowance for various reasons there is some logic in it preventing this issue.
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
You are correct and some of these or even all of these are likely to come to pass. You could argue the Labour Party was disingenuous that they didn't spell out that they needed to generate income via taxation or borrowing after the election should they win, in the short term at least. Revenue from economic growth is not a tap that can be turned on and off.
However the Conservatives were in my opinion even more disingenuous, suggesting that not only was there not a requirement to generate revenue, but they had the wherewithal to reduce revenue with continued NI cuts and services would not be compromised even in the light of increased defence spending. They are still lost in that lie.
I realise it is academic now, but how would the Conservatives balance the books with even the merest hint of realism?
The tax burden was set to RISE with the Tories. Just not quite as precipitously as with Labour, presumably as the Tories didn't plan to grab their ankles when the train drivers asked for £67,000 a year for pressing stop and go.
Ivan Toney’s deadline day move to Saudi Arabia could see him land the UK equivalent of £1 million a week after bonuses are included.
The England striker signed for Al-Ahli last week on a dramatic final day of the summer window. The 28-year-old was minutes away from missing out on leaving Brentford as Victor Osimhen also pushed for a move to the Saudi club.
Toney’s four-year deal will land him basic pay of around £400,000 per week after tax. It is understood add-ons and bonuses related to performance would take his salary to towards £500,000 across his contract. To earn the same take-home pay in the UK after tax would need wages close to £1 million per week.
It is an astonishing pay rise for a player who was on less than £50,000 a week at Brentford, where he played for four seasons having joined them from Peterborough when he played in League One.
Intersting that despite the SNP-Green fallout in Scotland, the Greens there are perceived as significantly more different from both Labour and LibDems than the UK average - hoping perhaps for a rapprochmrent?
Ivan Toney’s deadline day move to Saudi Arabia could see him land the UK equivalent of £1 million a week after bonuses are included.
The England striker signed for Al-Ahli last week on a dramatic final day of the summer window. The 28-year-old was minutes away from missing out on leaving Brentford as Victor Osimhen also pushed for a move to the Saudi club.
Toney’s four-year deal will land him basic pay of around £400,000 per week after tax. It is understood add-ons and bonuses related to performance would take his salary to towards £500,000 across his contract. To earn the same take-home pay in the UK after tax would need wages close to £1 million per week.
It is an astonishing pay rise for a player who was on less than £50,000 a week at Brentford, where he played for four seasons having joined them from Peterborough when he played in League One.
Ivan Toney’s deadline day move to Saudi Arabia could see him land the UK equivalent of £1 million a week after bonuses are included.
The England striker signed for Al-Ahli last week on a dramatic final day of the summer window. The 28-year-old was minutes away from missing out on leaving Brentford as Victor Osimhen also pushed for a move to the Saudi club.
Toney’s four-year deal will land him basic pay of around £400,000 per week after tax. It is understood add-ons and bonuses related to performance would take his salary to towards £500,000 across his contract. To earn the same take-home pay in the UK after tax would need wages close to £1 million per week.
It is an astonishing pay rise for a player who was on less than £50,000 a week at Brentford, where he played for four seasons having joined them from Peterborough when he played in League One.
Off topic - big news from the US as the Trump campaign say their man is launching a campaign blitz of rallies this week.
Hang on Clutch - I hear you ask - didn't they say that last week too? Well - yes, yes they did.
To date he apparently has two rallies scheduled this week. He certainly stayed home on Labor Day as the Dems were out in force across the swing states. Is it a sign that a 78-year-old man hasn't the stamina for this game? Are his people talking the talk while worried about letting him out on a hot mic? I don't know but it does seem very odd
Ivan Toney’s deadline day move to Saudi Arabia could see him land the UK equivalent of £1 million a week after bonuses are included.
The England striker signed for Al-Ahli last week on a dramatic final day of the summer window. The 28-year-old was minutes away from missing out on leaving Brentford as Victor Osimhen also pushed for a move to the Saudi club.
Toney’s four-year deal will land him basic pay of around £400,000 per week after tax. It is understood add-ons and bonuses related to performance would take his salary to towards £500,000 across his contract. To earn the same take-home pay in the UK after tax would need wages close to £1 million per week.
It is an astonishing pay rise for a player who was on less than £50,000 a week at Brentford, where he played for four seasons having joined them from Peterborough when he played in League One.
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
You are correct and some of these or even all of these are likely to come to pass. You could argue the Labour Party was disingenuous that they didn't spell out that they needed to generate income via taxation or borrowing after the election should they win, in the short term at least. Revenue from economic growth is not a tap that can be turned on and off.
However the Conservatives were in my opinion even more disingenuous, suggesting that not only was there not a requirement to generate revenue, but they had the wherewithal to reduce revenue with continued NI cuts and services would not be compromised even in the light of increased defence spending. They are still lost in that lie.
I realise it is academic now, but how would the Conservatives balance the books with even the merest hint of realism?
The tax burden was set to RISE with the Tories. Just not quite as precipitously as with Labour, presumably as the Tories didn't plan to grab their ankles when the train drivers asked for £67,000 a year for pressing stop and go.
The first step to renewal and economic growth was to stop the two year long strikes. That was very early Thatcher.
Ivan Toney’s deadline day move to Saudi Arabia could see him land the UK equivalent of £1 million a week after bonuses are included.
The England striker signed for Al-Ahli last week on a dramatic final day of the summer window. The 28-year-old was minutes away from missing out on leaving Brentford as Victor Osimhen also pushed for a move to the Saudi club.
Toney’s four-year deal will land him basic pay of around £400,000 per week after tax. It is understood add-ons and bonuses related to performance would take his salary to towards £500,000 across his contract. To earn the same take-home pay in the UK after tax would need wages close to £1 million per week.
It is an astonishing pay rise for a player who was on less than £50,000 a week at Brentford, where he played for four seasons having joined them from Peterborough when he played in League One.
And of course in London you can spot the snatchers....all in black, balaclava on in the middle of the hottest day of summer and riding an illegally modified, normally stolen, e-bike.
The police round me have been confiscating what are technically motorcycles and charging the owners with every motoring offence under the sun. Probably a good way to crack down on these people.
I don't get this "technically"; it's what they are.
As such they require insurance and the rest, and can be immediately seized under laws that have existed to seize uninsured vehicles on the spot since 2005 - checking, Section 152 of the Serious Organised Crime and Police Act 2005.
It's ALWAYS been about won't act, not can't act.
For a number of years we have also had Guidance about tactical contact, but many police forces won't use that either.
Ivan Toney’s deadline day move to Saudi Arabia could see him land the UK equivalent of £1 million a week after bonuses are included.
The England striker signed for Al-Ahli last week on a dramatic final day of the summer window. The 28-year-old was minutes away from missing out on leaving Brentford as Victor Osimhen also pushed for a move to the Saudi club.
Toney’s four-year deal will land him basic pay of around £400,000 per week after tax. It is understood add-ons and bonuses related to performance would take his salary to towards £500,000 across his contract. To earn the same take-home pay in the UK after tax would need wages close to £1 million per week.
It is an astonishing pay rise for a player who was on less than £50,000 a week at Brentford, where he played for four seasons having joined them from Peterborough when he played in League One.
Off topic - big news from the US as the Trump campaign say their man is launching a campaign blitz of rallies this week.
Hang on Clutch - I hear you ask - didn't they say that last week too? Well - yes, yes they did.
To date he apparently has two rallies scheduled this week. He certainly stayed home on Labor Day as the Dems were out in force across the swing states. Is it a sign that a 78-year-old man hasn't the stamina for this game? Are his people talking the talk while worried about letting him out on a hot mic? I don't know but it does seem very odd
Golf comes first. Always.
Plus - why break a sweat when you are planning to denounce the result as fake if you don't win and are expecting the Supreme Court to rig it for you?
Ivan Toney’s deadline day move to Saudi Arabia could see him land the UK equivalent of £1 million a week after bonuses are included.
The England striker signed for Al-Ahli last week on a dramatic final day of the summer window. The 28-year-old was minutes away from missing out on leaving Brentford as Victor Osimhen also pushed for a move to the Saudi club.
Toney’s four-year deal will land him basic pay of around £400,000 per week after tax. It is understood add-ons and bonuses related to performance would take his salary to towards £500,000 across his contract. To earn the same take-home pay in the UK after tax would need wages close to £1 million per week.
It is an astonishing pay rise for a player who was on less than £50,000 a week at Brentford, where he played for four seasons having joined them from Peterborough when he played in League One.
A lawyer once told me about a pub that was visited by a protection racket, who was persuaded to install that group's fruit machines. He contacted Company A, his existing supplier, and explained he could not continue with their contract so could they remove their machines, which they did.
A month or so later the protection racket returned, explained that profits were not what they'd hoped for, and took their machines out so the publican was free to go back to Company A.
Which years later he discovered was a front for the twins.
LOL
Competition in the fruit machine rackets was brutal…,
"You're a big man, but you're in bad shape. With me it's a full time job. Now behave yourself."
Ivan Toney’s deadline day move to Saudi Arabia could see him land the UK equivalent of £1 million a week after bonuses are included.
The England striker signed for Al-Ahli last week on a dramatic final day of the summer window. The 28-year-old was minutes away from missing out on leaving Brentford as Victor Osimhen also pushed for a move to the Saudi club.
Toney’s four-year deal will land him basic pay of around £400,000 per week after tax. It is understood add-ons and bonuses related to performance would take his salary to towards £500,000 across his contract. To earn the same take-home pay in the UK after tax would need wages close to £1 million per week.
It is an astonishing pay rise for a player who was on less than £50,000 a week at Brentford, where he played for four seasons having joined them from Peterborough when he played in League One.
Ivan Toney’s deadline day move to Saudi Arabia could see him land the UK equivalent of £1 million a week after bonuses are included.
The England striker signed for Al-Ahli last week on a dramatic final day of the summer window. The 28-year-old was minutes away from missing out on leaving Brentford as Victor Osimhen also pushed for a move to the Saudi club.
Toney’s four-year deal will land him basic pay of around £400,000 per week after tax. It is understood add-ons and bonuses related to performance would take his salary to towards £500,000 across his contract. To earn the same take-home pay in the UK after tax would need wages close to £1 million per week.
It is an astonishing pay rise for a player who was on less than £50,000 a week at Brentford, where he played for four seasons having joined them from Peterborough when he played in League One.
£25m a year salary to someone who is hardly Ronaldo or Messi. They’re not going to be queuing up to buy Toney shirts, and the gate receipts and TV money doesn’t come close to paying the wages for all these new players.
Mr. HYUFD, you're comparing apples and oranges. While Corbyn was a constant the public perception of him was not. Any Conservative would have beaten him in 2019.
No Hunt or Gove would only have got another hung parliament like May. Remember most redwall voters voted for Boris against Corbyn not for the Tories, as soon as BorisCorbyn went they went back to Labour or to Reform
!Snip! In essence, a surviving spouse would have to pay 40% IHT on anything they inherited over £325,000. There would probably be the option of granting HMRC a charge over the matrimonial home, payable upon the death of the second spouse.
I can't believe that Labour would be stupid enough to go for that, though.
How does it work currently for an unmarried couple that own a house jointly, & a married one for that matter both with and without children.
I was thinking that. About 95% ofmy assets are formally jointly owned with my wife, and in practice the rest of it - like my car - is de facto jointly owned. Either of us has access to all of it. If I died there wouldn't be any need for anything complicated - it's all basically hers already.
As above, is this not about carrying an allowance over?
At the moment if you leave everything to your spouse, none of your allowance is used. Indeed, this is one of the few benefits of being married.
That allowance is currently carried over, so when your spouse dies and (potentially) your children inherit, the £325k allowance that you did not use is added to their £325k allowance to make it £650k.
Dropping this wouldn't mean IHT between spouses but an extra £130k bill to the children.
Family Trusts all round.
To me that seems a reasonable change.
My parents did the carry over thing, and we did get a stonking (for us) IHT bill when the second one died. It was also because we had kept enough income producing assets in mum's name to allow for her to self-fund care to keep it simple, and recognised that that decision would have costs later via IHT.
If by Family Trusts you mean the type that currently pay iirc 6% of assets once a decade in tax (if I have that right), that looks like an area ripe for reform. I could see that being increased a little and made annual.
Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?
My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.
As Cicero says (that sounds good!) the Tories will forever be the Party of Brexit and Rwanda. They will hang round the Tories necks like rotten fish and Suez and no amount of shaking will make it disappear. The only caveat being that the EU implodes but that is extremely unlikely as it's now the biggest and most successful trading block in the world with countries desperate to join.
“Western Europeans fail to understand the extent to which they were f*cked by the 2008 subprime crisis.
It's actually quite extraordinary: if you take the example of France in 2008 we were almost on par with the US in GDP per capita, $45.5k vs $48.5k, a small 6% difference.
Fast forward to 2023, 15 year later, and we still haven't recovered: we're at $44.4k GDP per capita, still lower than in 2008! Meanwhile the US is now at $81.6k or almost double what we are: from 6% difference to 100% difference in just 15 years...”
He’s ignoring FX rates but the point is still pretty good. Europe is NOT massively successful - and I’m not sure it is the biggest trading bloc any more either
The French vote for Le Pen and the Germans vote for the AdF for reasons, and they’re not all about migration. They sense relative decline. Germany in particular is in deep shit now and that’s the engine of the EU
Because the US is such a happy place nowadays?
Using averages for the US tells you very little, if you don’t look at how it’s distributed. The non-existent “average American” may be better off than their European counterpart, but the rather more real median American certainly isn’t.
A lawyer once told me about a pub that was visited by a protection racket, who was persuaded to install that group's fruit machines. He contacted Company A, his existing supplier, and explained he could not continue with their contract so could they remove their machines, which they did.
A month or so later the protection racket returned, explained that profits were not what they'd hoped for, and took their machines out so the publican was free to go back to Company A.
Which years later he discovered was a front for the twins.
LOL
Competition in the fruit machine rackets was brutal…,
"You're a big man, but you're in bad shape. With me it's a full time job. Now behave yourself."
We need a modern approach to vigilante violence and protection rackets.
Business Plan - iSmasher
Elevator pitch: 100% online. monthly fee. Automatic recovery of stolen items registered and tracked. Additional fees for punishment beatings etc. Platinum plan includes murder of transgressors.
Mr. Divvie, " Are you sure? Many on here expiate their guilt over voting for Boris by saying it was for risk of PM Jezza reasons."
With hindsight, I can also predict the lottery numbers (and actually get some F1 bets right).
I don't feel guilt for voting Conservative in 2019. The alternative would have been far worse. Likewise, in a contest between a fascist and Starmer I'd vote Labour without a qualm, if I feared the fascist had a chance of winning.
I don't remember a single person on here predicting Corbyn might win but happy to be corrected.
Ivan Toney’s deadline day move to Saudi Arabia could see him land the UK equivalent of £1 million a week after bonuses are included.
The England striker signed for Al-Ahli last week on a dramatic final day of the summer window. The 28-year-old was minutes away from missing out on leaving Brentford as Victor Osimhen also pushed for a move to the Saudi club.
Toney’s four-year deal will land him basic pay of around £400,000 per week after tax. It is understood add-ons and bonuses related to performance would take his salary to towards £500,000 across his contract. To earn the same take-home pay in the UK after tax would need wages close to £1 million per week.
It is an astonishing pay rise for a player who was on less than £50,000 a week at Brentford, where he played for four seasons having joined them from Peterborough when he played in League One.
£25m a year salary to someone who is hardly Ronaldo or Messi. They’re not going to be queuing up to buy Toney shirts, and the gate receipts and TV money doesn’t come close to paying the wages for all these new players.
On the upside - this kind of spend and they’ll have to cut back on guilt funding extremists abroad.
In Guardian next week - “Extremist Fundamentalists are MBS’s latest victims. We spoke to one “sheik” who has had to reduce suicide bombings to one every other week. ‘It’s very tough on the guys. Especially when we had to start recruiting cheap foreign labour, to stay market competitive. We have the Houthis coming in now, and they will blow themselves up for a fiver….’ “
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
Of those
1 - Is the ending of a temporary crisis tax break. Even the Tories weren't committed to preserving that. I'd say the suspended 5p of VED (and the VAT making it 6p) will be unsuspended, and the inflation link will be restored. Personally I'd bring back John Major's +3% escalator from the next budget.
2 - That will be finessed to about 1/2 to 2/3 of pensioners imo.
3 - Will stay. Not sure of the impact; I suspect that some community initiatives of independent schools could be withdrawn to mitigate the cost - though that was not what Eton did.
4 - I'm not sure that we are ready for that, and there are many other alternatives which would be more straightforward imo. That will be smoother to introduce in 4 or 5 years, perhaps.
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
They can't do the last one, it would mean widows being forced to sell their homes to pay IHT bills. The idea is repugnant. They will get rid of the 7 year gift rule though, or extend the taper to 10 or 15 years and they will definitely get rid of the IHT exemption on pensions (rightly tbf).
Reversing Osborne's IHT cut and the married transfer would also be the biggest gift from a PM to an opposition leader since May's dementia tax gift to Corbyn in 2017. I can't believe Starmer and Reeves would be that stupid, it would be a dream start for the new Tory leader as it would be hugely unpopular
I don't wish to agree with you @HYUFD on this, but I have to, you are right. Labour and the Tories competed on the give away on this and Osborne's move was inspired regarding it's popularity, even though I disagree with it. So I think you are absolutely right.
@MaxPB you are misunderstanding how it works. No widow would be forced to sell as transfers to widows are exempt from IHT. It is because of this there is no IHT. So not made homeless. But that also means there is no tax free allowance, so on transfer to the children there is only one allowance effectively on two transfers, but now the funds are from one person and not a husband and wife so effectively double the money being taxed, particularly if the deaths are close together which is often the case.
Although I don't agree with this allowance for various reasons there is some logic in it preventing this issue.
What it mostly does is stop most families having to get involved in arranging trusts and other legal nonsense so that both spouses can use their allowance without impoverishing each other.
Annoyingly my family didn't bother with this thanks to the original change but as we know, what the government can give, it can also take away.
A lucky charity may gain an extra 325k if this is retrospective. The treasury can whistle (unless they also tax charitable legacies, which would cause much fun).
Nunu's dedication to the cause of gagging Twix is highly suspect - I think that his posts on this are precisely to expound this theory by claiming to tut-tut it. It's you who is helping him do this not me. I hadn't even heard of it before I heard it on here.
When you survey attitudes to various topics - the one I'm thinking of is the recent riots but there are others - Reform supporters are usually the outliers. Conservatives tend to be in the mainstream along with Labour and the Lib Dem supporters. Which makes me think tacking in the direction of "common sense" may not be the most rewarding approach for the Tories.
IDS said something like "we shouldn't aim for the center ground, but the common ground"
The problem being he couldn't find common ground with GPS
IDS was right.
Common ground shifts all the time and its your job to stake it out, shape it, lead it and define it so you can win a majority/strong plurality of voters.
Centre ground is passive and means being mushy, following consensus, or just splitting the difference on policy.
What a load of bollocks.
We frequently discussed how left/right has become less useful as a political metric over the years, not least as it doesn't define where parties stand on issue that actually matter to the country.
Industrial policy is an excellent example. Governments of both right and left have for many decades failed (or avoided even trying) to implement successful industrial policy. While other nations have managed to do so under governments of both right and left.
On of the reasons for the disillusion with political parties is that people like you define politics to entrench their position in the two party hegemony that's governed the country for most of the last century. And in doing so have completely ignored things which might have led to better government.
Gentle tip: if you want an audience for your point of view don't start your response with "what a load of bollocks".
I didn't read the rest.
"IDS was right."
Sorry if that triggered you...
No, you're not; and it didn't. It merely coloured the rest of your comment. Which I bothered to read.
My view is not so much that it is the main party that occupies "the centre ground", more that it is the leader who appears to be closest to it. Hence Margaret Thatcher was closer than Foot and Kinnock, Major closer than Kinnock, Blair v Major (arguable), Cameron v Milibland, The Clown v Mr Thicky, and ultimately Sir Keir Boring v Sunak.
Normally, but in 1979 though Callaghan was closer to the 'centre ground' than Thatcher. In 1974 and 1966 Heath was closer to the 'centre ground' than Wilson. In 1945 and 1950 Churchill was also arguably closer to the 'centre ground' than Attlee
I think I would argue against the case for Churchill and the centre ground in 1945 - the consensus had shifted from the Conservatives and they were playing "me too" with Atlee who had essentially been the "home" PM for several years by that stage. I think we often mistake the extent to which the 1945 result was the public voting for "continuity" - but with the "wartime arm" of government removed.
Churchill’s ‘45 campaign was remarkably extreme, comparing Labour to the Gestapo and the like.
Also remember that the Conservative brand had been trashed by the utter failure of its foreign policy in the 1930s, for which ‘45 was significantly a long-delayed payoff. Voters didn’t forget the whole appeasement fiasco in a hurry. One of the reasons why the Tories created a national coalition government, despite their own large majority, was their own party’s lack of credibility, as evidenced by the string of lost by-elections.
"Throughout my nearly 40 years in the campaign war rooms, through every election loss and victory, one thing has remained consistent: The most thunderous sound in politics is the boom of a single page as it turns from one chapter to the next."
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
They can't do the last one, it would mean widows being forced to sell their homes to pay IHT bills. The idea is repugnant. They will get rid of the 7 year gift rule though, or extend the taper to 10 or 15 years and they will definitely get rid of the IHT exemption on pensions (rightly tbf).
Reversing Osborne's IHT cut and the married transfer would also be the biggest gift from a PM to an opposition leader since May's dementia tax gift to Corbyn in 2017. I can't believe Starmer and Reeves would be that stupid, it would be a dream start for the new Tory leader as it would be hugely unpopular
I don't wish to agree with you @HYUFD on this, but I have to, you are right. Labour and the Tories competed on the give away on this and Osborne's move was inspired regarding it's popularity, even though I disagree with it. So I think you are absolutely right.
@MaxPB you are misunderstanding how it works. No widow would be forced to sell as transfers to widows are exempt from IHT. It is because of this there is no IHT. So not made homeless. But that also means there is no tax free allowance, so on transfer to the children there is only one allowance effectively on two transfers, but now the funds are from one person and not a husband and wife so effectively double the money being taxed, particularly if the deaths are close together which is often the case.
Although I don't agree with this allowance for various reasons there is some logic in it preventing this issue.
But wouldn't a smart person just use the individual allowances separately and split the estate in two so they can benefit from 2 lots of £325k? The owners become tenants in common with a 50% share of the property and the other assets are split up before death, then when one person dies their 50% property share is passed on to their descendants along with their other assets using the £325k and then on the second death the other 50% is passed to their descendants using the other £325k. All you'd end up with is kids owning 50% of their mum or dad's house for a few years rather than it transferring to the spouse then to the kids.
Worst case scenario is that you might end up with a lot of late in life divorces if families are limited to one £325k allowance.
Andrew Mitchell indicating that the Government threshold for stopping arms sales to Israel has not been met. The Conservative Government would not have suspended the contracts
National Treasure Sir Boris Johnson on the other hand is, like Barty Bobbins, incandescent with rage.
I wonder if a latter day Peter Wright launched a successful coup against the Starmer Government would Boris Johnson take on the role as titular Prime Minister?
On topic, well, at least that's different to the mid noughties when we never heard the end of 'you're all the same'.
Lowest turnout since 2001 when it was guaranteed that Blair would win massively. That alone back up "you're all the same" and I certainly heard it on the doorstep.
I think there is a deep-fuelled cynicism about politics and politicians, fuelled by the Faragista alt-right AND the Corbynista alt-left which is going to be very hard to shift. Harder still the longer that Osbornomics rules the economic roost...
Interesting view, because a lot of people say it's the boring centrists who are responsible for those feelings about politics. (Not my opinion btw).
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
A - That I think would make sense. But there is the "four year countback" provision they will have to think about. B - Likely. With immediate application ie from midnight tonight? C - They have to navigate the "no income tax increases" promise. How? My take was roll it in with removing cliff-edges. D - Possible as discussed. What about the transferable married couples tax allowance, which I think was reintroduced in some form. Politically, this is a contrast with the marriage, gay and trans obsessed parts of the Conservative Right - which is a theme of National Conservatism aiui.
Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition
Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.
He's a male Heidi Allen.
On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.
On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
Wait until you see what Labour have in store for October.
✅ 5p on fuel ✅ End of winter fuel allowance for 90% of pensioners ✅ VAT on private school fees ✅ Introduction of pay per mile VED
✅ Pensions down to basic relief only and lower lifetime cap ✅ CGT at higher level increased to 35p ✅ Additional rate up to 50p ✅ Inheritance tax married transfer removed
They can't do the last one, it would mean widows being forced to sell their homes to pay IHT bills. The idea is repugnant. They will get rid of the 7 year gift rule though, or extend the taper to 10 or 15 years and they will definitely get rid of the IHT exemption on pensions (rightly tbf).
Reversing Osborne's IHT cut and the married transfer would also be the biggest gift from a PM to an opposition leader since May's dementia tax gift to Corbyn in 2017. I can't believe Starmer and Reeves would be that stupid, it would be a dream start for the new Tory leader as it would be hugely unpopular
I don't wish to agree with you @HYUFD on this, but I have to, you are right. Labour and the Tories competed on the give away on this and Osborne's move was inspired regarding it's popularity, even though I disagree with it. So I think you are absolutely right.
@MaxPB you are misunderstanding how it works. No widow would be forced to sell as transfers to widows are exempt from IHT. It is because of this there is no IHT. So not made homeless. But that also means there is no tax free allowance, so on transfer to the children there is only one allowance effectively on two transfers, but now the funds are from one person and not a husband and wife so effectively double the money being taxed, particularly if the deaths are close together which is often the case.
Although I don't agree with this allowance for various reasons there is some logic in it preventing this issue.
What it mostly does is stop most families having to get involved in arranging trusts and other legal nonsense so that both spouses can use their allowance without impoverishing each other.
Annoyingly my family didn't bother with this thanks to the original change but as we know, what the government can give, it can also take away.
A lucky charity may gain an extra 325k if this is retrospective. The treasury can whistle (unless they also tax charitable legacies, which would cause much fun).
I believe that the "no IHT on charitable donations" only applies up to 10% of the value of an estate. I think.
Comments
I do expect the Conservatives to have an opinion poll lead, by year end, albeit on a low vote share.
It's the Canals and Rivers Trust now - lakes (or more particularly reservoirs for the maintenance of canals) have been removed, just to make it as complicated as possible.
We know the Budget is going to be unpopular, but can they ride out the unpopularity for a couple of years as the election gets closer. At some point there needs to be a carrot as well as a stick.
To the extent it is true, probably AI, social media and tech is boosting incomes & salaries at the high-end - plus government borrowing - which is lifting their overall nominal GDP per head.
I can't believe that Labour would be stupid enough to go for that, though.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bündnis_Sahra_Wagenknecht
“The association is sceptical of both green politics and support for Ukraine in the Russo-Ukrainian War which led to the party being seen as Russophilic.”
It goes on to say:
“The political positions of the BSW include further restrictions on immigration, a plan for deglobalization, opposition to green politics, ending military aid to Ukraine, and a negotiated settlement to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
In other words, they’ll happy tie the hands of the Ukranians behind their backs until they are forced to abandon their country to the invaders.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ced1pjd3n3xo
Spectacularly misses the point. These phones aren't been stolen and flogged on ebay these days. In the US, it is increasingly to get access to your mobile banking app. And that will catch on more and more. And currently they are sent abroad to Africa to be resold or to China for parts, the whole blocking does nothing (and for the parts side of things impossible for Apple / Samsung to do much unless they want to make their phones so us the consumer can never get them repaired in anyway, which turns every phone into e-waste when you crack your screen). And if it wasn't phones, its watches, its handbags.
The problem is of course...
Of the 78,000 such thefts the Crime Survey for England and Wales, external estimates occurred, only 0.8% resulted in a person being charged. Almost 82% of investigations were closed without the police finding a suspect.
And the police attitude.
"However, we know that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem," he said.
The core issue isn't the tech company, its the police and government approach to tackling shitty crime. Same with the way shoplifting has got out of hand and brazen stealing of bikes in the middle of the day.
Large forces like the Met should put a couple of dozen officers on the case, tracking ‘find my’ and AirTags. I’ll take a good guess that they find more than one item of stolen property in the house.
I guess we know why Brompton’s sales are up so much, because no-one dares leave their bike anywhere any more.
The corner shop was regularly robbed by the local drug addicts.
After a while that stopped.
He’d made friends with the shop owner, who told him it was because he was a member of a local social club. The guy running the club, a regular in the shop, had seen the shop keepers problem. He suggested he join the club - and not go there.
Seemed like quite a reasonable system.
AI and automation could change some of that game. Not all of it.
Phones locate themselves - and once the word got out that the police were actually doing something, people would hide AirTags or similar in their bikes.
A month or so later the protection racket returned, explained that profits were not what they'd hoped for, and took their machines out so the publican was free to go back to Company A.
Which years later he discovered was a front for the twins.
@JohnRentoul
·
10m
Reeves tells Caroline Voaden, Lib Dem, state pension is £900 higher than a year ago and energy costs are lower
LOL. That's all fine then.
Competition in the fruit machine rackets was brutal…,
Why wait until your death-bed before you trust your partner not to run off with half the money if you marry them?
All it takes is an airtag and a couple of officers. It's usually just one gang running the operation out of a van and a warehouse.
Ivan Toney’s deadline day move to Saudi Arabia could see him land the UK equivalent of £1 million a week after bonuses are included.
The England striker signed for Al-Ahli last week on a dramatic final day of the summer window. The 28-year-old was minutes away from missing out on leaving Brentford as Victor Osimhen also pushed for a move to the Saudi club.
Toney’s four-year deal will land him basic pay of around £400,000 per week after tax. It is understood add-ons and bonuses related to performance would take his salary to towards £500,000 across his contract. To earn the same take-home pay in the UK after tax would need wages close to £1 million per week.
It is an astonishing pay rise for a player who was on less than £50,000 a week at Brentford, where he played for four seasons having joined them from Peterborough when he played in League One.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/09/03/ivan-toney-bank-around-1million-a-week-saudi-arabia-al-ahli/
At the moment if you leave everything to your spouse, none of your allowance is used. Indeed, this is one of the few benefits of being married.
That allowance is currently carried over, so when your spouse dies and (potentially) your children inherit, the £325k allowance that you did not use is added to their £325k allowance to make it £650k.
Dropping this wouldn't mean IHT between spouses but an extra £130k bill to the children.
Family Trusts all round.
However the Conservatives were in my opinion even more disingenuous, suggesting that not only was there not a requirement to generate revenue, but they had the wherewithal to reduce revenue with continued NI cuts and services would not be compromised even in the light of increased defence spending. They are still lost in that lie.
I realise it is academic now, but how would the Conservatives balance the books with even the merest hint of realism?
Poor mite.
@MaxPB you are misunderstanding how it works. No widow would be forced to sell as transfers to widows are exempt from IHT. It is because of this there is no IHT. So not made homeless. But that also means there is no tax free allowance, so on transfer to the children there is only one allowance effectively on two transfers, but now the funds are from one person and not a husband and wife so effectively double the money being taxed, particularly if the deaths are close together which is often the case.
Although I don't agree with this allowance for various reasons there is some logic in it preventing this issue.
Edit: One of my more enlightened posts!
Hang on Clutch - I hear you ask - didn't they say that last week too? Well - yes, yes they did.
To date he apparently has two rallies scheduled this week. He certainly stayed home on Labor Day as the Dems were out in force across the swing states. Is it a sign that a 78-year-old man hasn't the stamina for this game? Are his people talking the talk while worried about letting him out on a hot mic? I don't know but it does seem very odd
So potential lifetimes earnings of 1/8 Billion.
So unlikely to be worried about his state pension….
As such they require insurance and the rest, and can be immediately seized under laws that have existed to seize uninsured vehicles on the spot since 2005 - checking, Section 152 of the Serious Organised Crime and Police Act 2005.
It's ALWAYS been about won't act, not can't act.
For a number of years we have also had Guidance about tactical contact, but many police forces won't use that either.
(You know, low tax Usonia
Plus - why break a sweat when you are planning to denounce the result as fake if you don't win and are expecting the Supreme Court to rig it for you?
Poor bastard.
Also... This guy kept playing until he was 40:
£25m a year salary to someone who is hardly Ronaldo or Messi. They’re not going to be queuing up to buy Toney shirts, and the gate receipts and TV money doesn’t come close to paying the wages for all these new players.
My parents did the carry over thing, and we did get a stonking (for us) IHT bill when the second one died. It was also because we had kept enough income producing assets in mum's name to allow for her to self-fund care to keep it simple, and recognised that that decision would have costs later via IHT.
If by Family Trusts you mean the type that currently pay iirc 6% of assets once a decade in tax (if I have that right), that looks like an area ripe for reform. I could see that being increased a little and made annual.
Using averages for the US tells you very little, if you don’t look at how it’s distributed. The non-existent “average American” may be better off than their European counterpart, but the rather more real median American certainly isn’t.
Business Plan - iSmasher
Elevator pitch: 100% online. monthly fee. Automatic recovery of stolen items registered and tracked. Additional fees for punishment beatings etc. Platinum plan includes murder of transgressors.
Trump says he had ‘every right’ to interfere in election
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4858494-donald-trump-election-interference-cases/
In Guardian next week - “Extremist Fundamentalists are MBS’s latest victims. We spoke to one “sheik” who has had to reduce suicide bombings to one every other week. ‘It’s very tough on the guys. Especially when we had to start recruiting cheap foreign labour, to stay market competitive. We have the Houthis coming in now, and they will blow themselves up for a fiver….’ “
1 - Is the ending of a temporary crisis tax break. Even the Tories weren't committed to preserving that. I'd say the suspended 5p of VED (and the VAT making it 6p) will be unsuspended, and the inflation link will be restored. Personally I'd bring back John Major's +3% escalator from the next budget.
2 - That will be finessed to about 1/2 to 2/3 of pensioners imo.
3 - Will stay. Not sure of the impact; I suspect that some community initiatives of independent schools could be withdrawn to mitigate the cost - though that was not what Eton did.
4 - I'm not sure that we are ready for that, and there are many other alternatives which would be more straightforward imo. That will be smoother to introduce in 4 or 5 years, perhaps.
Annoyingly my family didn't bother with this thanks to the original change but as we know, what the government can give, it can also take away.
A lucky charity may gain an extra 325k if this is retrospective. The treasury can whistle (unless they also tax charitable legacies, which would cause much fun).
A thought occurs about the whole tax vs emigration thing.
In my team, I am 1 out of 6. The only one born and brought up in the U.K.
The rest have been in the country between 3 and 10 years.
Why shouldn’t they be “transactional” as to which rich, Western county they live in?
Is this a possible downside of the plan to import all the talent? Much less “sticky” about staying here?
Also remember that the Conservative brand had been trashed by the utter failure of its foreign policy in the 1930s, for which ‘45 was significantly a long-delayed payoff. Voters didn’t forget the whole appeasement fiasco in a hurry. One of the reasons why the Tories created a national coalition government, despite their own large majority, was their own party’s lack of credibility, as evidenced by the string of lost by-elections.
"Throughout my nearly 40 years in the campaign war rooms, through every election loss and victory, one thing has remained consistent: The most thunderous sound in politics is the boom of a single page as it turns from one chapter to the next."
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/03/opinion/harris-trump-election.html
Worst case scenario is that you might end up with a lot of late in life divorces if families are limited to one £325k allowance.
National Treasure Sir Boris Johnson on the other hand is, like Barty Bobbins, incandescent with rage.
I wonder if a latter day Peter Wright launched a successful coup against the Starmer Government would Boris Johnson take on the role as titular Prime Minister?
B - Likely. With immediate application ie from midnight tonight?
C - They have to navigate the "no income tax increases" promise. How? My take was roll it in with removing cliff-edges.
D - Possible as discussed. What about the transferable married couples tax allowance, which I think was reintroduced in some form. Politically, this is a contrast with the marriage, gay and trans obsessed parts of the Conservative Right - which is a theme of National Conservatism aiui.