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They aren’t all the same – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,048
edited September 3 in General
They aren’t all the same – politicalbetting.com

How similar do voters perceive the main parties to be?Most similar according to Labour voters:Conservatives and Reform UK: 65% say they are similarLabour and Lib Dems: 42%Lib Dems and Greens: 40%According to Conservative voters:Lib Dems and Greens: 42%Conservatives and… pic.twitter.com/G7BKr3FjBC

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Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,141
    F.I.R.S.T
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,141
    On topic, well, at least that's different to the mid noughties when we never heard the end of 'you're all the same'.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    It's the shame we didn't have a followup question on why the parties or similar / different.

    Vaguely competent is the reason why Labour / Tories look different - sadly I don't expect that difference to last long at which point the "they are all the same" will reappear..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,524
    Good morning, everyone.

    Joy of joys, a new political coalition: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24p2l11y12o
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,507
    fpt
    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has @BartholomewRoberts commented on Labour starting to pull the plug on arms for Israel?

    I think it's an utter disgrace and Labour is pandering to pro Hamas voters.

    Israel has a right to defend itself.
    It's both performative and weird.

    Either Lab thinks Israel is committing war crimes or it doesn't.

    If it does then it should go down that track a la Sth Africa. If not then what is it up to.
    It's acting on the legal advice it received.
    You're entitled to disagree with the advice, but it's not 'weird'.
    He (Lammy) said that this is not a comment on whether Israel has violated international law just that "there does exist a clear risk" that they might.

    Why is there a "clear risk", after nearly a year. Either Israel is violating the law in which case fine, or it is not, in which case what's the problem.

    To say that there is a "clear risk" suggests that you think they have already done so, in which case line up with South Africa and Ireland and take your case to the ICC.

    As I say, weird.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Joy of joys, a new political coalition: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24p2l11y12o

    "Independent Alliance" is such a wishy-washy name. Need to call it something more thrusting and dynamic. The Independent Group is available. Much better...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,905
    edited September 3
    It's the 27% Reform:Conservative and 24% Green: Labour numbers that are interesting here. These voters aren't fungible.

    Compare with Labour:Lib Dem and Lib Dem:Labour. In general, their views on the other parties are very similar.

    (Also lots of Lib Dems look quite open to voting Green)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,201

    Good morning, everyone.

    Joy of joys, a new political coalition: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24p2l11y12o

    "Independent Alliance" is such a wishy-washy name. Need to call it something more thrusting and dynamic. The Independent Group is available. Much better...
    It’s an oxymoron. Are they independents or are they in an alliance?
  • On topic, well, at least that's different to the mid noughties when we never heard the end of 'you're all the same'.

    Lowest turnout since 2001 when it was guaranteed that Blair would win massively. That alone back up "you're all the same" and I certainly heard it on the doorstep.

    I think there is a deep-fuelled cynicism about politics and politicians, fuelled by the Faragista alt-right AND the Corbynista alt-left which is going to be very hard to shift. Harder still the longer that Osbornomics rules the economic roost...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,737
    edited September 3

    Good morning, everyone.

    Joy of joys, a new political coalition: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24p2l11y12o

    "Independent Alliance" is such a wishy-washy name. Need to call it something more thrusting and dynamic. The Independent Group is available. Much better...
    It’s an oxymoron. Are they independents or are they in an alliance?
    It's an alliance not a party for several reasons. They have linked up in order to get better access to PMQs (now having equal numbers of MPs to Reform, so should get the same speaking rights) but while they have common ground on Palestine, poverty and housing they do not claim to have a full range of policies and will not appoint a leader.

    Similar independent groups are not unusual at council level.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,524
    F1: Magnussen banned for Azerbaijan. I'd guess Bearman will drive for them then, given he's moving to Haas next year.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Joy of joys, a new political coalition: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24p2l11y12o

    "Independent Alliance" is such a wishy-washy name. Need to call it something more thrusting and dynamic. The Independent Group is available. Much better...
    They should have gone for The League of Non-Alligned Worlds MPs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,737
    Interesting BSA survey findings:

    “There are two rather different stories told about British identity. One is a vision of a multicultural society that is welcoming of the cultural diversity that postwar waves of immigration have brought. The other is of a proud country that has withstood all invaders since the Norman conquest, and which enjoys a rich and unique cultural legacy that needs to be cherished and preserved,” it says.

    “The decision to leave the European Union seemed to suggest that the latter vision was the more powerful in the popular mind. However, what appears to have happened in practice during the last decade is that British identity has come to be conceived to an even greater extent than before in primarily civic, inclusive terms that potentially leave the door open to newcomers.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/03/pride-britain-history-falls-sharply-social-attitudes-survey
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,737
    Cicero said:

    It is not just a general sense of Tory incompetence is it though?

    It is the very specific issue of the spectacular failure of Brexit both in conception and in implementation that defines the Tory brand. "The party that severely damaged the economy and the global standing of the nation in order to address their own internal political disputes".

    For that alone Surrey or Oxfordshire is not coming back to the Tories for a very long time, if ever.

    Despite William Hague´s bromides in today´s Times, I think that the Tories will struggle to recover at all until they have some much better answers to the Brexit conundrum. Those answers do not include middle aged people in polyester mix suits saying that the solution is even more extreme and unreasonable policies.

    Rwanda, like Brexit, was another policy that did not stand up to real world scrutiny. A gimmick more than anything else, yet still the Tories and their little propagandists in the press continue to defend the useless and indefensible.

    They do the same with Brexit, though ever less convincingly. Unless you accept that the policy has failed and that these failures must be mitigated, then you are not even in the conversation. The Lib Dems and Labour know that, the Tories still do not. Even a new leader is just a sticking plaster over the Brexit wound for the Tories.

    The Tory problem is that they are increasingly seen as "Weird".

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/sep/02/voters-beginning-to-think-conservatives-are-weird-research-suggests
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,422

    On topic, well, at least that's different to the mid noughties when we never heard the end of 'you're all the same'.

    Lowest turnout since 2001 when it was guaranteed that Blair would win massively. That alone back up "you're all the same" and I certainly heard it on the doorstep.

    I think there is a deep-fuelled cynicism about politics and politicians, fuelled by the Faragista alt-right AND the Corbynista alt-left which is going to be very hard to shift. Harder still the longer that Osbornomics rules the economic roost...
    The problem is simpler and deeper than that. A couple more headers on the way…
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,507
    Foxy said:

    Interesting BSA survey findings:

    “There are two rather different stories told about British identity. One is a vision of a multicultural society that is welcoming of the cultural diversity that postwar waves of immigration have brought. The other is of a proud country that has withstood all invaders since the Norman conquest, and which enjoys a rich and unique cultural legacy that needs to be cherished and preserved,” it says.

    “The decision to leave the European Union seemed to suggest that the latter vision was the more powerful in the popular mind. However, what appears to have happened in practice during the last decade is that British identity has come to be conceived to an even greater extent than before in primarily civic, inclusive terms that potentially leave the door open to newcomers.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/03/pride-britain-history-falls-sharply-social-attitudes-survey

    I'm sure this comes with huge regional variations. What applies to Clapham might not apply to Clipsham.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,762
    edited September 3
    Cicero said:

    It is not just a general sense of Tory incompetence is it though?

    It is the very specific issue of the spectacular failure of Brexit both in conception and in implementation that defines the Tory brand. "The party that severely damaged the economy and the global standing of the nation in order to address their own internal political disputes".

    For that alone Surrey or Oxfordshire is not coming back to the Tories for a very long time, if ever.

    Despite William Hague´s bromides in today´s Times, I think that the Tories will struggle to recover at all until they have some much better answers to the Brexit conundrum. Those answers do not include middle aged people in polyester mix suits saying that the solution is even more extreme and unreasonable policies.

    Rwanda, like Brexit, was another policy that did not stand up to real world scrutiny. A gimmick more than anything else, yet still the Tories and their little propagandists in the press continue to defend the useless and indefensible.

    They do the same with Brexit, though ever less convincingly. Unless you accept that the policy has failed and that these failures must be mitigated, then you are not even in the conversation. The Lib Dems and Labour know that, the Tories still do not. Even a new leader is just a sticking plaster over the Brexit wound for the Tories.

    Middle Aged is far too kind Mr Cicero.

    I tend to agree that the Tories have utterly trashed their brand with what would once have been the liberal 30% of their support. With Reform now competing for the little Englanders, it’s hard to see how they can win a majority at an election at any time in the forseeable.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,965
    edited September 3
    When you survey attitudes to various topics - the one I'm thinking of is the recent riots but there are others - Reform supporters are usually the outliers. Conservatives tend to be in the mainstream along with Labour and the Lib Dem supporters. Which makes me think tacking in the direction of "common sense" may not be the most rewarding approach for the Tories.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,762
    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    It is not just a general sense of Tory incompetence is it though?

    It is the very specific issue of the spectacular failure of Brexit both in conception and in implementation that defines the Tory brand. "The party that severely damaged the economy and the global standing of the nation in order to address their own internal political disputes".

    For that alone Surrey or Oxfordshire is not coming back to the Tories for a very long time, if ever.

    Despite William Hague´s bromides in today´s Times, I think that the Tories will struggle to recover at all until they have some much better answers to the Brexit conundrum. Those answers do not include middle aged people in polyester mix suits saying that the solution is even more extreme and unreasonable policies.

    Rwanda, like Brexit, was another policy that did not stand up to real world scrutiny. A gimmick more than anything else, yet still the Tories and their little propagandists in the press continue to defend the useless and indefensible.

    They do the same with Brexit, though ever less convincingly. Unless you accept that the policy has failed and that these failures must be mitigated, then you are not even in the conversation. The Lib Dems and Labour know that, the Tories still do not. Even a new leader is just a sticking plaster over the Brexit wound for the Tories.

    The Tory problem is that they are increasingly seen as "Weird".

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/sep/02/voters-beginning-to-think-conservatives-are-weird-research-suggests
    And electing Badenoch will do nothing for that. She reeks of weird.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,606
    FF43 said:

    When you survey attitudes to various topics - the one I'm thinking of is the recent riots but there are others - Reform supporters are usually the outliers. Conservatives tend to be in the mainstream along with Labour and the Lib Dem supporters. Which makes me think tacking in the direction of "common sense" may not be the most rewarding approach for the Tories.

    They need to move the centre.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,116
    edited September 3
    Lots of power capacity auctioned yesterday: around 5gw of wind and a surprisingly high 3.3gw of solar capacity (though with solar peak capacity is very different from average, much more so than wind).

    Strike prices higher than last time, when nobody bid. £54 per MWh. Is that the right level? Much lower than nuclear (£128 last time I looked), lower than current gas generation costs but higher than historic gas costs. Feels about right to me - on a continued long term trend lower but not as low as the £48 hit just before our recent inflation bout.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,359
    FF43 said:

    When you survey attitudes to various topics - the one I'm thinking of is the recent riots but there are others - Reform supporters are usually the outliers. Conservatives tend to be in the mainstream along with Labour and the Lib Dem supporters. Which makes me think tacking in the direction of "common sense" may not be the most rewarding approach for the Tories.

    IDS said something like "we shouldn't aim for the center ground, but the common ground"

    The problem being he couldn't find common ground with GPS
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,359
    @GavinBarwell

    Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition

    https://x.com/GavinBarwell/status/1830667700399706220
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,737
    FF43 said:

    When you survey attitudes to various topics - the one I'm thinking of is the recent riots but there are others - Reform supporters are usually the outliers. Conservatives tend to be in the mainstream along with Labour and the Lib Dem supporters. Which makes me think tacking in the direction of "common sense" may not be the most rewarding approach for the Tories.

    The Shift in attitudes in the BSA is quite dramatic, though whether caused by Brexit or whether Brexit was a reaction to the shift in attitudes is unclear.

    It does show that the "Fun with Flags" tendency is fighting for a diminishing part of the electorate, and ignoring the growing bit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,017
    So most Labour and LD voters think the Tories and Reform look similar but most Tory and Reform voters don't. Most Reform voters think Labour and the LDs are alike but most Labour and LD and even Tory voters don't think they are alike
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,458

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    It is not just a general sense of Tory incompetence is it though?

    It is the very specific issue of the spectacular failure of Brexit both in conception and in implementation that defines the Tory brand. "The party that severely damaged the economy and the global standing of the nation in order to address their own internal political disputes".

    For that alone Surrey or Oxfordshire is not coming back to the Tories for a very long time, if ever.

    Despite William Hague´s bromides in today´s Times, I think that the Tories will struggle to recover at all until they have some much better answers to the Brexit conundrum. Those answers do not include middle aged people in polyester mix suits saying that the solution is even more extreme and unreasonable policies.

    Rwanda, like Brexit, was another policy that did not stand up to real world scrutiny. A gimmick more than anything else, yet still the Tories and their little propagandists in the press continue to defend the useless and indefensible.

    They do the same with Brexit, though ever less convincingly. Unless you accept that the policy has failed and that these failures must be mitigated, then you are not even in the conversation. The Lib Dems and Labour know that, the Tories still do not. Even a new leader is just a sticking plaster over the Brexit wound for the Tories.

    The Tory problem is that they are increasingly seen as "Weird".

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/sep/02/voters-beginning-to-think-conservatives-are-weird-research-suggests
    And electing Badenoch will do nothing for that. She reeks of weird.
    Indeed she is a weirdo. She is also a coward who staged a disappearing act while business secretary. Perhaps THE TRUSS would be a better choice?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,606
    Scott_xP said:

    @GavinBarwell

    Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition

    https://x.com/GavinBarwell/status/1830667700399706220

    They promised to cut immigration to the tens of thousands and instead increased it to the millions.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,763
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has @BartholomewRoberts commented on Labour starting to pull the plug on arms for Israel?

    I think it's an utter disgrace and Labour is pandering to pro Hamas voters.

    Israel has a right to defend itself.
    It's both performative and weird.

    Either Lab thinks Israel is committing war crimes or it doesn't.

    If it does then it should go down that track a la Sth Africa. If not then what is it up to.
    It's acting on the legal advice it received.
    You're entitled to disagree with the advice, but it's not 'weird'.
    He (Lammy) said that this is not a comment on whether Israel has violated international law just that "there does exist a clear risk" that they might.

    Why is there a "clear risk", after nearly a year. Either Israel is violating the law in which case fine, or it is not, in which case what's the problem.

    To say that there is a "clear risk" suggests that you think they have already done so, in which case line up with South Africa and Ireland and take your case to the ICC.

    As I say, weird.
    It's not weird at all.
    It's a nuanced response to a long term ally apparently losing sight of its obligations under international law.

    If the case has already been taken to the ICC by other countries, for us also to do so would be little more than performative.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,017

    Good morning, everyone.

    Joy of joys, a new political coalition: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24p2l11y12o

    Corbyn's disciples?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,359

    Scott_xP said:

    @GavinBarwell

    Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition

    https://x.com/GavinBarwell/status/1830667700399706220

    They promised to cut immigration to the tens of thousands and instead increased it to the millions.
    That still wasn't "governing from the left"

    That was a consequence of their own batshit obsession with brexit

    Governing from the shallow end of the talent pool
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,763
    edited September 3

    FF43 said:

    When you survey attitudes to various topics - the one I'm thinking of is the recent riots but there are others - Reform supporters are usually the outliers. Conservatives tend to be in the mainstream along with Labour and the Lib Dem supporters. Which makes me think tacking in the direction of "common sense" may not be the most rewarding approach for the Tories.

    They need to move the centre.
    That's equivalent to saying 'if only the country were as weird as they are'.

    The party has no such power to persuade for now, and likely for quite some time.

    (I'm assuming you didn't intend to write "to the centre" ?)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,677
    edited September 3
    Scott_xP said:

    @GavinBarwell

    Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition

    https://x.com/GavinBarwell/status/1830667700399706220

    Truss's mini budget is a perfect case in point - it never happened, defeated before it could happen by external opposition and a Conservative majority full of centrist back-biters that would not have respected her mandate. Using that as an example of 'not governing from the left' proves exactly the point the author doesn't wish to prove.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,677
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    When you survey attitudes to various topics - the one I'm thinking of is the recent riots but there are others - Reform supporters are usually the outliers. Conservatives tend to be in the mainstream along with Labour and the Lib Dem supporters. Which makes me think tacking in the direction of "common sense" may not be the most rewarding approach for the Tories.

    The Shift in attitudes in the BSA is quite dramatic, though whether caused by Brexit or whether Brexit was a reaction to the shift in attitudes is unclear.

    It does show that the "Fun with Flags" tendency is fighting for a diminishing part of the electorate, and ignoring the growing bit.
    Check Nigel Farage's following on TikTok vs. how many of the younger generation are being inspired by Sir Keir, or the prat in a pond for that matter.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,965
    Eabhal said:

    It's the 27% Reform:Conservative and 24% Green: Labour numbers that are interesting here. These voters aren't fungible.

    Compare with Labour:Lib Dem and Lib Dem:Labour. In general, their views on the other parties are very similar.

    (Also lots of Lib Dems look quite open to voting Green)

    These Greens are the former Corbynistas who no longer have a home in the Labour Party.

    The English Greens are a strange beast as they also embrace the more energised National Trust membership concerned about electricity pylons in beauty spots
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,017
    Cicero said:

    It is not just a general sense of Tory incompetence is it though?

    It is the very specific issue of the spectacular failure of Brexit both in conception and in implementation that defines the Tory brand. "The party that severely damaged the economy and the global standing of the nation in order to address their own internal political disputes".

    For that alone Surrey or Oxfordshire is not coming back to the Tories for a very long time, if ever.

    Despite William Hague´s bromides in today´s Times, I think that the Tories will struggle to recover at all until they have some much better answers to the Brexit conundrum. Those answers do not include middle aged people in polyester mix suits saying that the solution is even more extreme and unreasonable policies.

    Rwanda, like Brexit, was another policy that did not stand up to real world scrutiny. A gimmick more than anything else, yet still the Tories and their little propagandists in the press continue to defend the useless and indefensible.

    They do the same with Brexit, though ever less convincingly. Unless you accept that the policy has failed and that these failures must be mitigated, then you are not even in the conversation. The Lib Dems and Labour know that, the Tories still do not. Even a new leader is just a sticking plaster over the Brexit wound for the Tories.

    I think Tugendhat could win back lots of bluewall seats in Surrey and Oxfordshire from the LDs, especially if Labour put up tax further. He would have less appeal in the redwall though.

    Given Starmer Labour now oppose rejoining the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union and back the Windsor Framework Sunak negotiated the Tories and Labour now agree on Brexit anyway. The real Brexit divide is Reform, who want to scrap the Windsor Framework v the LDs, Greens and SNP who want to rejoin the Single Market
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,524
    My. HYUFD, he's not the Messiah: he's a very naughty boy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,507
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has @BartholomewRoberts commented on Labour starting to pull the plug on arms for Israel?

    I think it's an utter disgrace and Labour is pandering to pro Hamas voters.

    Israel has a right to defend itself.
    It's both performative and weird.

    Either Lab thinks Israel is committing war crimes or it doesn't.

    If it does then it should go down that track a la Sth Africa. If not then what is it up to.
    It's acting on the legal advice it received.
    You're entitled to disagree with the advice, but it's not 'weird'.
    He (Lammy) said that this is not a comment on whether Israel has violated international law just that "there does exist a clear risk" that they might.

    Why is there a "clear risk", after nearly a year. Either Israel is violating the law in which case fine, or it is not, in which case what's the problem.

    To say that there is a "clear risk" suggests that you think they have already done so, in which case line up with South Africa and Ireland and take your case to the ICC.

    As I say, weird.
    It's not weird at all.
    It's a nuanced response to a long term ally apparently losing sight of its obligations under international law.

    If the case has already been taken to the ICC by other countries, for us also to do so would be little more than performative.
    So we think that Israel is committing war crimes but don't want to register this at the ICC because it would be performative? That's truly weird.

    Saying there is a clear risk means that Israel has form in this area. And yet the UK government says that it is making no judgement about any violation. That is illogical. A clear risk must only mean that it has happened before and might happen again with UK-supplied weapons. Otherwise it is meaningless.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,458
    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's the 27% Reform:Conservative and 24% Green: Labour numbers that are interesting here. These voters aren't fungible.

    Compare with Labour:Lib Dem and Lib Dem:Labour. In general, their views on the other parties are very similar.

    (Also lots of Lib Dems look quite open to voting Green)

    These Greens are the former Corbynistas who no longer have a home in the Labour Party.

    The English Greens are a strange beast as they also embrace the more energised National Trust membership concerned about electricity pylons in beauty spots
    The Greens are increasingly crackers, ditto their voters. They have ceased to be an environmental party - except when it suits them electorally (eg in Waveney and Herefordshire). They should revert to their proper role.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,606
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has @BartholomewRoberts commented on Labour starting to pull the plug on arms for Israel?

    I think it's an utter disgrace and Labour is pandering to pro Hamas voters.

    Israel has a right to defend itself.
    It's both performative and weird.

    Either Lab thinks Israel is committing war crimes or it doesn't.

    If it does then it should go down that track a la Sth Africa. If not then what is it up to.
    It's acting on the legal advice it received.
    You're entitled to disagree with the advice, but it's not 'weird'.
    He (Lammy) said that this is not a comment on whether Israel has violated international law just that "there does exist a clear risk" that they might.

    Why is there a "clear risk", after nearly a year. Either Israel is violating the law in which case fine, or it is not, in which case what's the problem.

    To say that there is a "clear risk" suggests that you think they have already done so, in which case line up with South Africa and Ireland and take your case to the ICC.

    As I say, weird.
    It's not weird at all.
    It's a nuanced response to a long term ally apparently losing sight of its obligations under international law.

    If the case has already been taken to the ICC by other countries, for us also to do so would be little more than performative.
    So we think that Israel is committing war crimes but don't want to register this at the ICC because it would be performative? That's truly weird.

    Saying there is a clear risk means that Israel has form in this area. And yet the UK government says that it is making no judgement about any violation. That is illogical. A clear risk must only mean that it has happened before and might happen again with UK-supplied weapons. Otherwise it is meaningless.
    There is a clear risk of Labour MPs not receiving prompt treatment on the NHS if they don't make some kind of gesture.
  • TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has @BartholomewRoberts commented on Labour starting to pull the plug on arms for Israel?

    I think it's an utter disgrace and Labour is pandering to pro Hamas voters.

    Israel has a right to defend itself.
    It's both performative and weird.

    Either Lab thinks Israel is committing war crimes or it doesn't.

    If it does then it should go down that track a la Sth Africa. If not then what is it up to.
    It's acting on the legal advice it received.
    You're entitled to disagree with the advice, but it's not 'weird'.
    He (Lammy) said that this is not a comment on whether Israel has violated international law just that "there does exist a clear risk" that they might.

    Why is there a "clear risk", after nearly a year. Either Israel is violating the law in which case fine, or it is not, in which case what's the problem.

    To say that there is a "clear risk" suggests that you think they have already done so, in which case line up with South Africa and Ireland and take your case to the ICC.

    As I say, weird.
    AIUI, the relevant UK law says that weapons can't be exported if there is a risk that they might be used in violation of international law. By following the relevant processes, the government has determined that such a risk does indeed exist, which therefore means that the weapons can't be exported. I don't see how that is weird.
    The bit that seems weird is that the government response isn't to try and pass an Israel Doing Bad Things (Not going to happen) law.

    And that only seems weird, because normality always seems weird after intense abnormality.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,615
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,507

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has @BartholomewRoberts commented on Labour starting to pull the plug on arms for Israel?

    I think it's an utter disgrace and Labour is pandering to pro Hamas voters.

    Israel has a right to defend itself.
    It's both performative and weird.

    Either Lab thinks Israel is committing war crimes or it doesn't.

    If it does then it should go down that track a la Sth Africa. If not then what is it up to.
    It's acting on the legal advice it received.
    You're entitled to disagree with the advice, but it's not 'weird'.
    He (Lammy) said that this is not a comment on whether Israel has violated international law just that "there does exist a clear risk" that they might.

    Why is there a "clear risk", after nearly a year. Either Israel is violating the law in which case fine, or it is not, in which case what's the problem.

    To say that there is a "clear risk" suggests that you think they have already done so, in which case line up with South Africa and Ireland and take your case to the ICC.

    As I say, weird.
    AIUI, the relevant UK law says that weapons can't be exported if there is a risk that they might be used in violation of international law. By following the relevant processes, the government has determined that such a risk does indeed exist, which therefore means that the weapons can't be exported. I don't see how that is weird.
    It is weird because why would there be a risk if it hasn't happened already. What has changed (apart from the UK government) that means now all of a sudden there is a clear risk. Presumably the Cons (and their legal advisors) didn't think there was a risk but now there is a risk.

    Lammy says there is a risk that UK-supplied weapons might be used to commit violations of international law. Which implies that he thinks Israel is violating international law. So take them to the ICC.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,507

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has @BartholomewRoberts commented on Labour starting to pull the plug on arms for Israel?

    I think it's an utter disgrace and Labour is pandering to pro Hamas voters.

    Israel has a right to defend itself.
    It's both performative and weird.

    Either Lab thinks Israel is committing war crimes or it doesn't.

    If it does then it should go down that track a la Sth Africa. If not then what is it up to.
    It's acting on the legal advice it received.
    You're entitled to disagree with the advice, but it's not 'weird'.
    He (Lammy) said that this is not a comment on whether Israel has violated international law just that "there does exist a clear risk" that they might.

    Why is there a "clear risk", after nearly a year. Either Israel is violating the law in which case fine, or it is not, in which case what's the problem.

    To say that there is a "clear risk" suggests that you think they have already done so, in which case line up with South Africa and Ireland and take your case to the ICC.

    As I say, weird.
    AIUI, the relevant UK law says that weapons can't be exported if there is a risk that they might be used in violation of international law. By following the relevant processes, the government has determined that such a risk does indeed exist, which therefore means that the weapons can't be exported. I don't see how that is weird.
    The bit that seems weird is that the government response isn't to try and pass an Israel Doing Bad Things (Not going to happen) law.

    And that only seems weird, because normality always seems weird after intense abnormality.
    Exactly. They aren't saying Israel is doing bad things we must stop them (via the ICC or elsewhere). They are saying we don't want our weapons to be used to do the bad things that Israel are doing.

    Weird.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,533
    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    It is not just a general sense of Tory incompetence is it though?

    It is the very specific issue of the spectacular failure of Brexit both in conception and in implementation that defines the Tory brand. "The party that severely damaged the economy and the global standing of the nation in order to address their own internal political disputes".

    For that alone Surrey or Oxfordshire is not coming back to the Tories for a very long time, if ever.

    Despite William Hague´s bromides in today´s Times, I think that the Tories will struggle to recover at all until they have some much better answers to the Brexit conundrum. Those answers do not include middle aged people in polyester mix suits saying that the solution is even more extreme and unreasonable policies.

    Rwanda, like Brexit, was another policy that did not stand up to real world scrutiny. A gimmick more than anything else, yet still the Tories and their little propagandists in the press continue to defend the useless and indefensible.

    They do the same with Brexit, though ever less convincingly. Unless you accept that the policy has failed and that these failures must be mitigated, then you are not even in the conversation. The Lib Dems and Labour know that, the Tories still do not. Even a new leader is just a sticking plaster over the Brexit wound for the Tories.

    The Tory problem is that they are increasingly seen as "Weird".

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/sep/02/voters-beginning-to-think-conservatives-are-weird-research-suggests
    And it is not just the "politician-weird" that is already factored-in.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,092
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has @BartholomewRoberts commented on Labour starting to pull the plug on arms for Israel?

    I think it's an utter disgrace and Labour is pandering to pro Hamas voters.

    Israel has a right to defend itself.
    It's both performative and weird.

    Either Lab thinks Israel is committing war crimes or it doesn't.

    If it does then it should go down that track a la Sth Africa. If not then what is it up to.
    It's acting on the legal advice it received.
    You're entitled to disagree with the advice, but it's not 'weird'.
    He (Lammy) said that this is not a comment on whether Israel has violated international law just that "there does exist a clear risk" that they might.

    Why is there a "clear risk", after nearly a year. Either Israel is violating the law in which case fine, or it is not, in which case what's the problem.

    To say that there is a "clear risk" suggests that you think they have already done so, in which case line up with South Africa and Ireland and take your case to the ICC.

    As I say, weird.
    It's not weird at all.
    It's a nuanced response to a long term ally apparently losing sight of its obligations under international law.

    If the case has already been taken to the ICC by other countries, for us also to do so would be little more than performative.
    So we think that Israel is committing war crimes but don't want to register this at the ICC because it would be performative? That's truly weird.

    Saying there is a clear risk means that Israel has form in this area. And yet the UK government says that it is making no judgement about any violation. That is illogical. A clear risk must only mean that it has happened before and might happen again with UK-supplied weapons. Otherwise it is meaningless.
    Whatever the rights and wrongs of this specific question, I think it's clearly wrong to require that something has happened before for it to be a "clear risk". It's essentially a "what is the likelihood" judgement call, and things can be quite likely to happen even if it would be the first time for them to happen.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,201
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c990l7m05zgo

    “Starmer welcomes Siberian kitten to Downing Street”

    A Russian agent in no. 10!!!!!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,507
    pm215 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has @BartholomewRoberts commented on Labour starting to pull the plug on arms for Israel?

    I think it's an utter disgrace and Labour is pandering to pro Hamas voters.

    Israel has a right to defend itself.
    It's both performative and weird.

    Either Lab thinks Israel is committing war crimes or it doesn't.

    If it does then it should go down that track a la Sth Africa. If not then what is it up to.
    It's acting on the legal advice it received.
    You're entitled to disagree with the advice, but it's not 'weird'.
    He (Lammy) said that this is not a comment on whether Israel has violated international law just that "there does exist a clear risk" that they might.

    Why is there a "clear risk", after nearly a year. Either Israel is violating the law in which case fine, or it is not, in which case what's the problem.

    To say that there is a "clear risk" suggests that you think they have already done so, in which case line up with South Africa and Ireland and take your case to the ICC.

    As I say, weird.
    It's not weird at all.
    It's a nuanced response to a long term ally apparently losing sight of its obligations under international law.

    If the case has already been taken to the ICC by other countries, for us also to do so would be little more than performative.
    So we think that Israel is committing war crimes but don't want to register this at the ICC because it would be performative? That's truly weird.

    Saying there is a clear risk means that Israel has form in this area. And yet the UK government says that it is making no judgement about any violation. That is illogical. A clear risk must only mean that it has happened before and might happen again with UK-supplied weapons. Otherwise it is meaningless.
    Whatever the rights and wrongs of this specific question, I think it's clearly wrong to require that something has happened before for it to be a "clear risk". It's essentially a "what is the likelihood" judgement call, and things can be quite likely to happen even if it would be the first time for them to happen.
    The war has been going on for a year and Lab has not joined the ICC action. Indeed Lammy explicitly said it wasn't a determination of (innocence or) guilt. It's a weird quantum state that the UK government thinks exists in Israel/Gaza.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,470

    Good morning, everyone.

    Joy of joys, a new political coalition: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24p2l11y12o

    "Independent Alliance" is such a wishy-washy name. Need to call it something more thrusting and dynamic. The Independent Group is available. Much better...
    Gaza Party would have been more accurate.

    Only Corbyn would have been an MP in that group if Gaza hadn't attacked Israel in Oct last year.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,017

    Scott_xP said:

    @GavinBarwell

    Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition

    https://x.com/GavinBarwell/status/1830667700399706220

    They promised to cut immigration to the tens of thousands and instead increased it to the millions.
    Immigration fell this summer after Sunak and Cleverly tightened visa and salary requirements
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,470
    Latest from the university of the bleedin' obvious:

    GPs spent most of their time on sickest patients with multiple conditions.


    Revealed: Tiny group of patients that takes up a third of GPs’ time

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/03/the-tiny-group-of-patients-that-take-up-a-third-of-gps-time/
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,533
    HYUFD said:

    So most Labour and LD voters think the Tories and Reform look similar but most Tory and Reform voters don't. Most Reform voters think Labour and the LDs are alike but most Labour and LD and even Tory voters don't think they are alike

    Leaving aside the point you make that only 1/3 of Tory 2024 voters think the Tories are similar to Reform - surely the more worrying number for the Conservatives is that only 27% of Reform 2024 voters think the Conservatives are similar to the Party they voted for. That makes the "add up Con and Reform voters and storm to victory" plan look pretty shaky.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,368
    Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?

    My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,137

    Scott_xP said:

    @GavinBarwell

    Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition

    https://x.com/GavinBarwell/status/1830667700399706220

    They promised to cut immigration to the tens of thousands and instead increased it to the millions.
    Millions = Tens of thousands of thousands = Over delivered.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,141

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's the 27% Reform:Conservative and 24% Green: Labour numbers that are interesting here. These voters aren't fungible.

    Compare with Labour:Lib Dem and Lib Dem:Labour. In general, their views on the other parties are very similar.

    (Also lots of Lib Dems look quite open to voting Green)

    These Greens are the former Corbynistas who no longer have a home in the Labour Party.

    The English Greens are a strange beast as they also embrace the more energised National Trust membership concerned about electricity pylons in beauty spots
    The Greens are increasingly crackers, ditto their voters. They have ceased to be an environmental party - except when it suits them electorally (eg in Waveney and Herefordshire). They should revert to their proper role.
    They're a British Die Linke.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,141
    Scott_xP said:

    @GavinBarwell

    Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition

    https://x.com/GavinBarwell/status/1830667700399706220

    Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.

    He's a male Heidi Allen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,017
    Jonathan said:

    Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?

    My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.

    Tugendhat would be the best candidate to win back seats like Chichester and Horsham
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,533
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has @BartholomewRoberts commented on Labour starting to pull the plug on arms for Israel?

    I think it's an utter disgrace and Labour is pandering to pro Hamas voters.

    Israel has a right to defend itself.
    It's both performative and weird.

    Either Lab thinks Israel is committing war crimes or it doesn't.

    If it does then it should go down that track a la Sth Africa. If not then what is it up to.
    It's acting on the legal advice it received.
    You're entitled to disagree with the advice, but it's not 'weird'.
    He (Lammy) said that this is not a comment on whether Israel has violated international law just that "there does exist a clear risk" that they might.

    Why is there a "clear risk", after nearly a year. Either Israel is violating the law in which case fine, or it is not, in which case what's the problem.

    To say that there is a "clear risk" suggests that you think they have already done so, in which case line up with South Africa and Ireland and take your case to the ICC.

    As I say, weird.
    AIUI, the relevant UK law says that weapons can't be exported if there is a risk that they might be used in violation of international law. By following the relevant processes, the government has determined that such a risk does indeed exist, which therefore means that the weapons can't be exported. I don't see how that is weird.
    It is weird because why would there be a risk if it hasn't happened already. What has changed (apart from the UK government) that means now all of a sudden there is a clear risk. Presumably the Cons (and their legal advisors) didn't think there was a risk but now there is a risk.

    Lammy says there is a risk that UK-supplied weapons might be used to commit violations of international law. Which implies that he thinks Israel is violating international law. So take them to the ICC.
    Much as I consider Lammy the weakest of links (however smart he may be) it doesn't mean he thinks that they are *currently* violating international law. He could have intelligence about intended use, or extrapolating from public statements or whatever other criteria constitute the risk assessment.

    The fact that this is occurring "after nearly a year" is also irrelevant. The previous Government (of fine, upstanding, hardworking, capable individuals feted for their successes on all stages) took one view. A few weeks later, another Government takes another view.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,141
    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    When you survey attitudes to various topics - the one I'm thinking of is the recent riots but there are others - Reform supporters are usually the outliers. Conservatives tend to be in the mainstream along with Labour and the Lib Dem supporters. Which makes me think tacking in the direction of "common sense" may not be the most rewarding approach for the Tories.

    IDS said something like "we shouldn't aim for the center ground, but the common ground"

    The problem being he couldn't find common ground with GPS
    IDS was right.

    Common ground shifts all the time and its your job to stake it out, shape it, lead it and define it so you can win a majority/strong plurality of voters.

    Centre ground is passive and means being mushy, following consensus, or just splitting the difference on policy.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,965

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃

    Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
    I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
    Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
    Salmon and cheese? Really?
    Cream cheese, a classic combo.
    True, but never fancied it.
    One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
    Pretty well, yes.

    Also, pasta with cream is not nice, IMO.
    Generally in agreement re pasta with cream. That fake carbonara muck that gets vended at some dining establishments is a great example. But make it in the traditional way with just the cheese, egg and black pepper for a sauce - stunning.
    Carbonara only dates back to the late 1940s probably, so there are people on PB who are older than the recipe. It was possibly first made with powdered egg! So I’m not certain how much I’d lean on “tradition”.

    I’m reading “ Delizia: The Epic History of Italians and Their Food” by John Dickie, which is good, and very critical of narratives of tradition in Italian cuisine.

    Truly? As with so many traditions often not as venerable as thought.
    Ciabatta was invented in 1982, which is about when salmon sushi came along.
    People have lost their shit with bread.

    Ciabatta and sourdough is awful, tough, sour and chewy.

    I long for the good fresh farmhouse loaf to come back.
    Bake your own; it's easy enough, fairly cheap, and a good way to relax. It also tastes far better than shop stuff, and makes the house smell lovely. ;)
    I'm sure, and I could make my own sandwiches too, but I'd far rather an option to buy them and enjoy them out!
    I must admit that I partially agree with you: many of the 'specialist' breads out there don't taste that good, especially in texture. If I'm buying a sandwich, I want the plainest bread I can find, and much more filling.

    Then again, when I bake I often put sliced black olives into the mix getting a farmhouse loaf with olives in. If I get the balance just right (with a *tiny* dollop of olive oil, it's awesome.

    Oh. and making foccacia is really fun.

    In all seriousness, try a little baking. If I'm stressed, I find it rapidly improves my mood, especially with some good music on.
    A tip. Sourdough bread from Asda is pretty good. The best of the supermarket fake artisan offerings in my experience.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,359

    IDS was right.

    Hold on, I think I see your problem.

    Yes, right there. That's where you went wrong...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,003
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has @BartholomewRoberts commented on Labour starting to pull the plug on arms for Israel?

    I think it's an utter disgrace and Labour is pandering to pro Hamas voters.

    Israel has a right to defend itself.
    It's both performative and weird.

    Either Lab thinks Israel is committing war crimes or it doesn't.

    If it does then it should go down that track a la Sth Africa. If not then what is it up to.
    It's acting on the legal advice it received.
    You're entitled to disagree with the advice, but it's not 'weird'.
    He (Lammy) said that this is not a comment on whether Israel has violated international law just that "there does exist a clear risk" that they might.

    Why is there a "clear risk", after nearly a year. Either Israel is violating the law in which case fine, or it is not, in which case what's the problem.

    To say that there is a "clear risk" suggests that you think they have already done so, in which case line up with South Africa and Ireland and take your case to the ICC.

    As I say, weird.
    It's not weird at all.
    It's a nuanced response to a long term ally apparently losing sight of its obligations under international law.

    If the case has already been taken to the ICC by other countries, for us also to do so would be little more than performative.
    So we think that Israel is committing war crimes but don't want to register this at the ICC because it would be performative? That's truly weird.

    Saying there is a clear risk means that Israel has form in this area. And yet the UK government says that it is making no judgement about any violation. That is illogical. A clear risk must only mean that it has happened before and might happen again with UK-supplied weapons. Otherwise it is meaningless.
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has @BartholomewRoberts commented on Labour starting to pull the plug on arms for Israel?

    I think it's an utter disgrace and Labour is pandering to pro Hamas voters.

    Israel has a right to defend itself.
    It's both performative and weird.

    Either Lab thinks Israel is committing war crimes or it doesn't.

    If it does then it should go down that track a la Sth Africa. If not then what is it up to.
    It's acting on the legal advice it received.
    You're entitled to disagree with the advice, but it's not 'weird'.
    He (Lammy) said that this is not a comment on whether Israel has violated international law just that "there does exist a clear risk" that they might.

    Why is there a "clear risk", after nearly a year. Either Israel is violating the law in which case fine, or it is not, in which case what's the problem.

    To say that there is a "clear risk" suggests that you think they have already done so, in which case line up with South Africa and Ireland and take your case to the ICC.

    As I say, weird.
    It's not weird at all.
    It's a nuanced response to a long term ally apparently losing sight of its obligations under international law.

    If the case has already been taken to the ICC by other countries, for us also to do so would be little more than performative.
    So we think that Israel is committing war crimes but don't want to register this at the ICC because it would be performative? That's truly weird.

    Saying there is a clear risk means that Israel has form in this area. And yet the UK government says that it is making no judgement about any violation. That is illogical. A clear risk must only mean that it has happened before and might happen again with UK-supplied weapons. Otherwise it is meaningless.
    I thought the UK only supplied them with a few dials and other such baubles, was supposedly only 40 million a year. Virtue signalling by a bunch of useless turkeys, take the cowardly halfway house option so they can suck butt later.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,524
    The Conservatives sentenced themselves to their current Hell when they chose a charismatic empty vessel over a more boring but competent, and decent, option.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,763
    .

    Jonathan said:

    Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?

    My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.

    Hunt has been the one person who's been leading a decent opposition since 4th July.

    Winds up something chronic that he's labelled as a "Wet" or "Remoaner" or effete Cameroon.

    He's an effective Conservative.
    Though this rather undercuts his criticism of Reeves.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg3z2xz1nzo
    ...Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt wrote to Mr Case in July saying it was "deeply troubling" that Rachel Reeves’s claims about the public finances appeared to contradict formal government spending estimates published shortly beforehand.
    In his response, which has been leaked to the BBC, Mr Case said the mismatch identified by Mr Hunt was a result of the compressed parliamentary timetable between the sudden general election and the summer.
    But then he went further, questioning why the government in which Mr Hunt served had not updated different departments’ budgets since 2021.
    "I would also note that the sizeable in-year changes to spending plans in recent years have resulted from the lack of a new Spending Review to replan departmental budgets in the face of significant pressures which have materialised since budgets were set in 2021," Mr Case wrote.
    "By the time the election was called, we were in the final year of the 2021 Spending Review period. The most effective way to transparently identify, quantify and address those pressures would have been to conduct a prompt Spending Review."
    At another point, Mr Case said that "unlike previous years" the current government "has set out to Parliament the pressures that it is having to manage down and the actions it is taking to do so"...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,017
    Foxy said:

    Interesting BSA survey findings:

    “There are two rather different stories told about British identity. One is a vision of a multicultural society that is welcoming of the cultural diversity that postwar waves of immigration have brought. The other is of a proud country that has withstood all invaders since the Norman conquest, and which enjoys a rich and unique cultural legacy that needs to be cherished and preserved,” it says.

    “The decision to leave the European Union seemed to suggest that the latter vision was the more powerful in the popular mind. However, what appears to have happened in practice during the last decade is that British identity has come to be conceived to an even greater extent than before in primarily civic, inclusive terms that potentially leave the door open to newcomers.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/sep/03/pride-britain-history-falls-sharply-social-attitudes-survey

    64% do still have pride in our history though which is more than have pride in our democracy, political and economic system. Though less than have pride in our sporting and arts and culture achievements
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,368

    Jonathan said:

    Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?

    My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.

    Hunt has been the one person who's been leading a decent opposition since 4th July.

    Winds up something chronic that he's labelled as a "Wet" or "Remoaner" or effete Cameroon.

    He's an effective Conservative.
    His efforts to win his marginal seat demand respect. The fact the Tories dislike him says much about their current troubles. Head and shoulders above the likes of Truss. A serious old school street fighting Tory.

    Meanwhile, I’d like to see the Tories taking on reform and defeating them rather than trying to accommodate them. Who is best placed of the current leadership to do that?


  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,057
    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    When you survey attitudes to various topics - the one I'm thinking of is the recent riots but there are others - Reform supporters are usually the outliers. Conservatives tend to be in the mainstream along with Labour and the Lib Dem supporters. Which makes me think tacking in the direction of "common sense" may not be the most rewarding approach for the Tories.

    IDS said something like "we shouldn't aim for the center ground, but the common ground"

    The problem being he couldn't find common ground with GPS
    I think the "the common ground not the centre ground" dates back to Norman Tebbit if not further. Apols if wrong.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,202

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's the 27% Reform:Conservative and 24% Green: Labour numbers that are interesting here. These voters aren't fungible.

    Compare with Labour:Lib Dem and Lib Dem:Labour. In general, their views on the other parties are very similar.

    (Also lots of Lib Dems look quite open to voting Green)

    These Greens are the former Corbynistas who no longer have a home in the Labour Party.

    The English Greens are a strange beast as they also embrace the more energised National Trust membership concerned about electricity pylons in beauty spots
    The Greens are increasingly crackers, ditto their voters. They have ceased to be an environmental party - except when it suits them electorally (eg in Waveney and Herefordshire). They should revert to their proper role.
    The Greens seem to have gone for the NIMBY vote bigtime: They’ve become the “no to everything” party. No new housing, no to energy infrastructure, no to water infrastructure.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    Scott_xP said:

    IDS was right.

    Hold on, I think I see your problem.

    Yes, right there. That's where you went wrong...
    Starmer's biggest failure to date was cocking up candidate selection in Chingford allowing the half-wit Iain Duncan Smith to remain in Parliament.

    Although on second thoughts it may have been a cunning plan that worked perfectly.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,606

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's the 27% Reform:Conservative and 24% Green: Labour numbers that are interesting here. These voters aren't fungible.

    Compare with Labour:Lib Dem and Lib Dem:Labour. In general, their views on the other parties are very similar.

    (Also lots of Lib Dems look quite open to voting Green)

    These Greens are the former Corbynistas who no longer have a home in the Labour Party.

    The English Greens are a strange beast as they also embrace the more energised National Trust membership concerned about electricity pylons in beauty spots
    The Greens are increasingly crackers, ditto their voters. They have ceased to be an environmental party - except when it suits them electorally (eg in Waveney and Herefordshire). They should revert to their proper role.
    They're a British Die Linke.
    I don’t think there’s much chance of a nationalist breakaway group like BSW, although opposing immigration on environmental grounds would be intellectually consistent.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,470
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?

    My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.

    Tugendhat would be the best candidate to win back seats like Chichester and Horsham
    Yep. He did surprisingly well in those leadership head-to-head pollings the other day.

    Is it just possible?
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 954

    Scott_xP said:

    @GavinBarwell

    Truss's Mini Budget wasn't "governing from the left". Nor was the Rwanda scheme. Nor was cutting taxes when many public services were struggling. If the Conservative Party keeps misleading itself about why it lost, it will spend a long time in opposition

    https://x.com/GavinBarwell/status/1830667700399706220

    Gavin Barwell. Ugh. The less we hear from him the better.

    He's a male Heidi Allen.
    On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right- the rawanda scheme for example was never going to happen but they let in many more thousands of legal migrants than Labour.

    On economics they taxed more than ever before- whilst cclaimimg to be a low taxed party. The two main reasons why people vote Tory they didn't deliver on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,017

    The Conservatives sentenced themselves to their current Hell when they chose a charismatic empty vessel over a more boring but competent, and decent, option.

    The Tories chose the dull May over Johnson in 2016. The voters nearly rejected May for Corbyn in 2017, only Boris clearly beat Corbyn in 2019 and got Brexit done. The redwall would never have voted for Hunt only for Boris
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,763

    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    When you survey attitudes to various topics - the one I'm thinking of is the recent riots but there are others - Reform supporters are usually the outliers. Conservatives tend to be in the mainstream along with Labour and the Lib Dem supporters. Which makes me think tacking in the direction of "common sense" may not be the most rewarding approach for the Tories.

    IDS said something like "we shouldn't aim for the center ground, but the common ground"

    The problem being he couldn't find common ground with GPS
    IDS was right.

    Common ground shifts all the time and its your job to stake it out, shape it, lead it and define it so you can win a majority/strong plurality of voters.

    Centre ground is passive and means being mushy, following consensus, or just splitting the difference on policy.
    What a load of bollocks.

    We frequently discussed how left/right has become less useful as a political metric over the years, not least as it doesn't define where parties stand on issue that actually matter to the country.

    Industrial policy is an excellent example. Governments of both right and left have for many decades failed (or avoided even trying) to implement successful industrial policy. While other nations have managed to do so under governments of both right and left.

    On of the reasons for the disillusion with political parties is that people like you define politics to entrench their position in the two party hegemony that's governed the country for most of the last century. And in doing so have completely ignored things which might have led to better government.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,075
    This survey is about perceptions, not facts. Both are important but facts are interesting.

    As between the parties with any prospect of actual power the Overton window, when looked at in the big picture, is as narrow as a Norman lancet window.

    They agree on: NATO, nuclear, keeping out of foreign wars, the arms trade, a welfare state, free education to 18, regulated capitalism+ a gigantic state sector, state pensions, NHS free at the point of access, not being in the single market, huge net inward migration (look at deeds not words of course), net zero at some movable date in the future, a never reached future on debt, continued borrowing at £100 bn pa, public service broadcasting and a free press.

    They must differ on something but at the moment I can't think of anything. Weapons grade staples and paperclips to Israel perhaps
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,017
    edited September 3
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    So most Labour and LD voters think the Tories and Reform look similar but most Tory and Reform voters don't. Most Reform voters think Labour and the LDs are alike but most Labour and LD and even Tory voters don't think they are alike

    Leaving aside the point you make that only 1/3 of Tory 2024 voters think the Tories are similar to Reform - surely the more worrying number for the Conservatives is that only 27% of Reform 2024 voters think the Conservatives are similar to the Party they voted for. That makes the "add up Con and Reform voters and storm to victory" plan look pretty shaky.
    More Reform voters think the
    Tories are closer to them than
    the LDs though
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,310
    edited September 3
    Phil said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's the 27% Reform:Conservative and 24% Green: Labour numbers that are interesting here. These voters aren't fungible.

    Compare with Labour:Lib Dem and Lib Dem:Labour. In general, their views on the other parties are very similar.

    (Also lots of Lib Dems look quite open to voting Green)

    These Greens are the former Corbynistas who no longer have a home in the Labour Party.

    The English Greens are a strange beast as they also embrace the more energised National Trust membership concerned about electricity pylons in beauty spots
    The Greens are increasingly crackers, ditto their voters. They have ceased to be an environmental party - except when it suits them electorally (eg in Waveney and Herefordshire). They should revert to their proper role.
    The Greens seem to have gone for the NIMBY vote bigtime: They’ve become the “no to everything” party. No new housing, no to energy infrastructure, no to water infrastructure.
    Sad but true. The UK needs a proper green party, but the current incarnation of the Greens isn't it. CR is right; they are currently more like a UK version of the German Die Linke.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,524
    Mr. HYUFD, you're comparing apples and oranges. While Corbyn was a constant the public perception of him was not. Any Conservative would have beaten him in 2019.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,544

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c990l7m05zgo

    “Starmer welcomes Siberian kitten to Downing Street”

    A Russian agent in no. 10!!!!!

    As long as it's not a Siberian Hamster!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796

    On topic, well, at least that's different to the mid noughties when we never heard the end of 'you're all the same'.

    Lowest turnout since 2001 when it was guaranteed that Blair would win massively. That alone back up "you're all the same" and I certainly heard it on the doorstep.

    I think there is a deep-fuelled cynicism about politics and politicians, fuelled by the Faragista alt-right AND the Corbynista alt-left which is going to be very hard to shift. Harder still the longer that Osbornomics rules the economic roost...
    Just shows that the vast majority are in the centre so not much point in voing as you'll get your wish anyway unless you are on the extremes which today means the Tories and Reform
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,359
    Nunu5 said:

    On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right

    No

    They spoke racist and governed incompetent
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,965
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Jonathan said:

    Tories first job is to understand why they lost heartland seats like Chichester and Horsham, which they held for 100+ years. If they can’t win here, why bother?

    My hunch is that is wasn’t because they were not right ring or Brexity enough. Hunt managed to hang on. Perhaps they might ask him.

    Hunt has been the one person who's been leading a decent opposition since 4th July.

    Winds up something chronic that he's labelled as a "Wet" or "Remoaner" or effete Cameroon.

    He's an effective Conservative.
    Though this rather undercuts his criticism of Reeves.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg3z2xz1nzo
    ...Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt wrote to Mr Case in July saying it was "deeply troubling" that Rachel Reeves’s claims about the public finances appeared to contradict formal government spending estimates published shortly beforehand.
    In his response, which has been leaked to the BBC, Mr Case said the mismatch identified by Mr Hunt was a result of the compressed parliamentary timetable between the sudden general election and the summer.
    But then he went further, questioning why the government in which Mr Hunt served had not updated different departments’ budgets since 2021.
    "I would also note that the sizeable in-year changes to spending plans in recent years have resulted from the lack of a new Spending Review to replan departmental budgets in the face of significant pressures which have materialised since budgets were set in 2021," Mr Case wrote.
    "By the time the election was called, we were in the final year of the 2021 Spending Review period. The most effective way to transparently identify, quantify and address those pressures would have been to conduct a prompt Spending Review."
    At another point, Mr Case said that "unlike previous years" the current government "has set out to Parliament the pressures that it is having to manage down and the actions it is taking to do so"...
    The previous government left an unsustainable fiscal position presumably because of a conscious decision by Jeremy Hunt, who also presumably had no expectation of being in government from this summer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,017

    Mr. HYUFD, you're comparing apples and oranges. While Corbyn was a constant the public perception of him was not. Any Conservative would have beaten him in 2019.

    No Hunt or Gove would only have got another hung parliament like May. Remember most redwall votere voted for Boris not the Tories, as soon as Boris went they went back to Labour or to Reform
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    edited September 3
    Cicero said:

    It is not just a general sense of Tory incompetence is it though?

    It is the very specific issue of the spectacular failure of Brexit both in conception and in implementation that defines the Tory brand. "The party that severely damaged the economy and the global standing of the nation in order to address their own internal political disputes".

    For that alone Surrey or Oxfordshire is not coming back to the Tories for a very long time, if ever.

    Despite William Hague´s bromides in today´s Times, I think that the Tories will struggle to recover at all until they have some much better answers to the Brexit conundrum. Those answers do not include middle aged people in polyester mix suits saying that the solution is even more extreme and unreasonable policies.

    Rwanda, like Brexit, was another policy that did not stand up to real world scrutiny. A gimmick more than anything else, yet still the Tories and their little propagandists in the press continue to defend the useless and indefensible.

    They do the same with Brexit, though ever less convincingly. Unless you accept that the policy has failed and that these failures must be mitigated, then you are not even in the conversation. The Lib Dems and Labour know that, the Tories still do not. Even a new leader is just a sticking plaster over the Brexit wound for the Tories.

    Great post. The Tories and Reform are inextricably intertwined by Brexit and that will effectively kill them for a very long time. Certainly with the current hopefuls.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,763
    Moving away from a single national price for electricity would probably lower prices for all consumers.

    https://www.samdumitriu.com/p/where-the-wind-blows
    ...3. Using existing infrastructure better. The advantage of nodal pricing isn’t just that more infrastructure will be built in places where it’s more useful, but the infrastructure itself will be used more efficiently too. Let’s stick with batteries in West Texas. What’s interesting about the Texan market, which by the way leads the US in adding renewables, is that not only are batteries located in response to local prices, but the way they’re used is different too. West Texan batteries make more of their money through trading energy (buying it when it’s cheap and selling it when it’s expensive to smooth out prices), while batteries in South Texas earn their money through grid reliability services (preventing blackouts when demand for power outstrips supply).

    It’s not just batteries either. One of the ways that Britain’s grid manages the intermittency of renewables is through interconnectors (big cables connecting Britain’s grid to the grids of Norway, France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands). Yet, a single national price for energy does weird things with interconnectors. It can create situations where interconnectors end up making constraints worse forcing us to curtail even more renewable power.

    For example, when the link between Scotland and England is over-congested but the national price remains high, it can lead to us importing energy from Norway into Scotland and force us to curtail even more renewable power. Under a locational pricing system, prices close to zero in a constrained Scotland would lead to us exporting power to Norway. The end result being cheaper bills for households across the country...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551

    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    When you survey attitudes to various topics - the one I'm thinking of is the recent riots but there are others - Reform supporters are usually the outliers. Conservatives tend to be in the mainstream along with Labour and the Lib Dem supporters. Which makes me think tacking in the direction of "common sense" may not be the most rewarding approach for the Tories.

    IDS said something like "we shouldn't aim for the center ground, but the common ground"

    The problem being he couldn't find common ground with GPS
    IDS was right.
    .
    Alexa give me an example of an oxymoron.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,544
    The header is very interesting, especially the Reform voter numbers. They clearly see themselves as a group apart, with little in common with Conservatives, the latter being nothing but Lib Dems or Labourites with dark blue rosettes. This isn't great news for those Tories who think Reform voters are on temporary loan to Farage and will all be voting Tory again soon.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,368

    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    When you survey attitudes to various topics - the one I'm thinking of is the recent riots but there are others - Reform supporters are usually the outliers. Conservatives tend to be in the mainstream along with Labour and the Lib Dem supporters. Which makes me think tacking in the direction of "common sense" may not be the most rewarding approach for the Tories.

    IDS said something like "we shouldn't aim for the center ground, but the common ground"

    The problem being he couldn't find common ground with GPS
    IDS was right.
    .
    Alexa give me an example of an oxymoron.
    Corrected
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,763
    A small change, but a clear one.

    Labour gives TfL go-ahead to build 350 new homes near Cockfosters tube station
    https://www.cityam.com/labour-gives-tfl-go-ahead-to-build-350-new-homes-near-cockfosters-tube-station/
    The new Labour government has given Transport for London (TfL) the green light to build hundreds of affordable homes near Cockfosters tube station, overriding a decision from the former Conservative transport secretary Grant Shapps to block the project.

    Shapps controversially intervened to stop the proposals in March 2022, using obscure legal powers that require TfL to seek government permission to sell land used for its operational purposes...

    ..London City Airport was granted permission to significantly expand its capacity in August, following a protracted spat with nearby Newham Council.

    Places for London, TfL’s property arm, is currently working towards a target of constructing 20,000 homes, including 50 per cent affordable housing, by 2031.

    “This key milestone will be built on in the coming years as developments at Kidbrooke, Wembley Park, Bollo Lane, Barkingside, Southall and Nine Elms complete, providing much needed new housing close to Tube stations,” the Mayor’s office said in a statement.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,017
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Conservatives sentenced themselves to their current Hell when they chose a charismatic empty vessel over a more boring but competent, and decent, option.

    The Tories chose the dull May over Johnson in 2016. The voters nearly rejected May for Corbyn in 2017, only Boris clearly beat Corbyn in 2019 and got Brexit done. The redwall would never have voted for Hunt only for Boris
    Boris could get elected but couldn’t govern. A pointless dead end. You’re still mopping up the carnage he caused. Hunt would have been a better choice.
    There is a chance Hunt woud have come third in 2019 behind Farage and Corbyn, virtually no chance he would have won a Conservative majority like Boris did
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,503

    Mr. HYUFD, you're comparing apples and oranges. While Corbyn was a constant the public perception of him was not. Any Conservative would have beaten him in 2019.

    Are you sure? Many on here expiate their guilt over voting for Boris by saying it was for risk of PM Jezza reasons.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,606
    Scott_xP said:

    Nunu5 said:

    On immigration the tories governed left and spoke right

    No

    They spoke racist and governed incompetent
    You strongly supported them when they were promising to cut immigration to the tens of thousands.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,763
    TOPPING said:

    pm215 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has @BartholomewRoberts commented on Labour starting to pull the plug on arms for Israel?

    I think it's an utter disgrace and Labour is pandering to pro Hamas voters.

    Israel has a right to defend itself.
    It's both performative and weird.

    Either Lab thinks Israel is committing war crimes or it doesn't.

    If it does then it should go down that track a la Sth Africa. If not then what is it up to.
    It's acting on the legal advice it received.
    You're entitled to disagree with the advice, but it's not 'weird'.
    He (Lammy) said that this is not a comment on whether Israel has violated international law just that "there does exist a clear risk" that they might.

    Why is there a "clear risk", after nearly a year. Either Israel is violating the law in which case fine, or it is not, in which case what's the problem.

    To say that there is a "clear risk" suggests that you think they have already done so, in which case line up with South Africa and Ireland and take your case to the ICC.

    As I say, weird.
    It's not weird at all.
    It's a nuanced response to a long term ally apparently losing sight of its obligations under international law.

    If the case has already been taken to the ICC by other countries, for us also to do so would be little more than performative.
    So we think that Israel is committing war crimes but don't want to register this at the ICC because it would be performative? That's truly weird.

    Saying there is a clear risk means that Israel has form in this area. And yet the UK government says that it is making no judgement about any violation. That is illogical. A clear risk must only mean that it has happened before and might happen again with UK-supplied weapons. Otherwise it is meaningless.
    Whatever the rights and wrongs of this specific question, I think it's clearly wrong to require that something has happened before for it to be a "clear risk". It's essentially a "what is the likelihood" judgement call, and things can be quite likely to happen even if it would be the first time for them to happen.
    The war has been going on for a year and Lab has not joined the ICC action. Indeed Lammy explicitly said it wasn't a determination of (innocence or) guilt. It's a weird quantum state that the UK government thinks exists in Israel/Gaza.
    I can understand your having problems grasping quantum mechanics.

    But the idea that there might be no simple way to deal with an ally which is behaving in a way we disapprove of, and over whom we have quite limited influence, is not a hard one to grasp.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,017

    Phil said:

    FF43 said:

    Eabhal said:

    It's the 27% Reform:Conservative and 24% Green: Labour numbers that are interesting here. These voters aren't fungible.

    Compare with Labour:Lib Dem and Lib Dem:Labour. In general, their views on the other parties are very similar.

    (Also lots of Lib Dems look quite open to voting Green)

    These Greens are the former Corbynistas who no longer have a home in the Labour Party.

    The English Greens are a strange beast as they also embrace the more energised National Trust membership concerned about electricity pylons in beauty spots
    The Greens are increasingly crackers, ditto their voters. They have ceased to be an environmental party - except when it suits them electorally (eg in Waveney and Herefordshire). They should revert to their proper role.
    The Greens seem to have gone for the NIMBY vote bigtime: They’ve become the “no to everything” party. No new housing, no to energy infrastructure, no to water infrastructure.
    Sad but true. The UK needs a proper green party, but the current incarnation of the Greens isn't it. CR is right; they are currently more like a UK version of the German Die Linke.
    No that is Corbyn's new group
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,368
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Conservatives sentenced themselves to their current Hell when they chose a charismatic empty vessel over a more boring but competent, and decent, option.

    The Tories chose the dull May over Johnson in 2016. The voters nearly rejected May for Corbyn in 2017, only Boris clearly beat Corbyn in 2019 and got Brexit done. The redwall would never have voted for Hunt only for Boris
    Boris could get elected but couldn’t govern. A pointless dead end. You’re still mopping up the carnage he caused. Hunt would have been a better choice.
    There is a chance Hunt woud have come third in 2019 behind Farage and Corbyn, virtually no chance he would have won a Conservative majority like Boris did
    Boris failed.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,141
    Scott_xP said:

    IDS was right.

    Hold on, I think I see your problem.

    Yes, right there. That's where you went wrong...
    Nobody is utterly wrong about everything all the time.

    Even you.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,507

    Mr. HYUFD, you're comparing apples and oranges. While Corbyn was a constant the public perception of him was not. Any Conservative would have beaten him in 2019.

    Are you sure? Many on here expiate their guilt over voting for Boris by saying it was for risk of PM Jezza reasons.
    *waves*

    Absobloodylutely.

    That's why I voted for Boris. Not guilty at all. He was a useless, lazy, solipsistic twat. But still better him than Jezza.
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