I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
I make a delicious - if I say so myself (and I do) - smoked haddock and leek risotto. And, yes, Parmesan goes on at the end, and it rocks the solar system
It sounds vile yet on occasion cheese with fish is yum. It can also work on a classic fish pie, for instance
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Smoked salmon and cream cheese, presumably ?
Yes.
I prefer it with avocado, but cream cheese is not inedible.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Just relistened to their first three albums and their lyrics and chords are boring, and their singing whining. They had a bit of style but that was very much in the mood of those times.
What people are really "buying", IMHO, is nostalgia for the 1990s.
Certainly not £300 plus good. Greedy f***ers.
Prior to this weekend I've only ever paid £350 per ticket for two artists/bands.
Madonna and The Rolling Stones, I do not regret either, I suspect I will regret paying that much for Oasis, at least I will get a weekend break in London out of it.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Just relistened to their first three albums and their lyrics and chords are boring, and their singing whining. They had a bit of style but that was very much in the mood of those times.
What people are really "buying", IMHO, is nostalgia for the 1990s.
Certainly not £300 plus good. Greedy f***ers.
Prior to this weekend I've only ever paid £350 per ticket for two artists/bands.
Madonna and The Rolling Stones, I do not regret either, I suspect I will regret paying that much for Oasis, at least I will get a weekend break in London out of it.
Pulp I could understanding paying a bit to see - oasis not so much
I wouldn't go that far but certainly there were some witnesses for the defence who could have been called who weren't at the trial
Interesting. So far I have seen nothing to indicate the convictions are not safe.
You need to start with the 56 page court of appeal judgment, see if anything in that is properly open to precise criticism.
You then have to guess why the defence didn't call its experts (see para 5), using the obvious explanation unless you have a better one.
Then draft, in ordinary English, the precise (not vague or hand waving) ground or grounds which you argue render the convictions unsafe either because of fresh evidence (be precise), or that the evidence for the prosecution was in precise ways false, or failed to give scope for a jury to convict. Note there was corroboration of the evidence.
Then ask and explain why the defence didn't use your grounds in their appeal.
General and imprecise points about stats, rotas, other reasons for dying etc won't do.
The only explanation for why the defence didn’t call their own expert witness that I have seen that makes any sense is that they thought they had fatally undermined the credibility of the prosecution expert witness in court, so there was no need to call their own.
As I understand things the prosecution expert witness cold approached the police in the first place & was involved in the building of the prosecution case before appearing on the stand as an expert witness. He also had previous history in the courts where an appeal judge described him as “tendentious and partisan”. Unfortunately for Letby’s defence, it turns out that, even if you convince a jury that a witness might be biased, if you don’t give them any alternative explanation for the facts of the case the jury may well decide that the only story they have been given is most probably the correct one.
Having failed to call their expert witness in the original trial none of their expert evidence can be used at appeal, leaving any appeal dead in the water without any new evidence.
In this interpretation the legal strategy decided on by her defence completely undermined whatever case they might have had & made it impossible to appeal afterwards.
It does seem that, whatever else one might think of this case, the presentation to the jury of an “expert witness” as an independent third party bringing their neutral opinion to the court was completely at odds with reality & the wider context of the use of expert witnesses by the court in this fashion needs to be looked at.
Re the bit in bold, I have a bridge to sell you. Private Eye fell for that rubbish too.
They could of course have called any amount of expert evidence on the retrial (and didn't), and if that had been followed by an acquittal a number of interesting avenues would have risen up. You have to conclude that they didn't because they couldn't unless a better explanation emerges.
I didn’t say that I agreed or 100% believed that explanation - just that it’s the only one I’ve seen that makes any sense, given the very strong opinion of the expert witness they did retain (who sat through the entire case IIRC) that they should have been called & they do not understand why that didn’t happen.
NB A legal question to which I don’t know the answer: Letby was convicted of 7 murders, with one hung jury which went for later retrial. In between the first case & the retrial, she appealed the convictions in the first case & her appeal was denied. An attempt by her lawyers to introduce their own expert evidence in the appeal was denied by the appeal judge on the grounds that they could have introduced that evidence at the original trial & could not therefore introduce it now.
Given that background, was it actually legally possible for her lawyers to introduce fresh expert evidence at the retrial that they failed to use in the original trial? Would the trial judge have permitted it, or would it be seen as trying to re-litigate the original trial by the backdoor, which had already been denied to them in the court of appeal?
The attempt in the Court of Appeal was to introduce fresh evidence, not evidence they had available at the time but not used. See para 15 of the judgment.
As to the second trial, both prosecution and defence are allowed in a second trial to introduce fresh evidence. Its relevance and admissibility can be challenged and adjudicated by the judge, but that is always the case.
Just relistened to their first three albums and their lyrics and chords are boring, and their singing whining. They had a bit of style but that was very much in the mood of those times.
What people are really "buying", IMHO, is nostalgia for the 1990s.
Certainly not £300 plus good. Greedy f***ers.
Prior to this weekend I've only ever paid £350 per ticket for two artists/bands.
Madonna and The Rolling Stones, I do not regret either, I suspect I will regret paying that much for Oasis, at least I will get a weekend break in London out of it.
Pulp I could understanding paying a bit to see - oasis not so much
It's nostalgia. It reminds me of latter school/university days.
Just relistened to their first three albums and their lyrics and chords are boring, and their singing whining. They had a bit of style but that was very much in the mood of those times.
What people are really "buying", IMHO, is nostalgia for the 1990s.
Two or three really good tracks (Don’t Look Back in Anger and Champagne Supernova do appear to actually be about something). Elsewhere, metric tonnes of easy chords and lazy rhymes.
Just relistened to their first three albums and their lyrics and chords are boring, and their singing whining. They had a bit of style but that was very much in the mood of those times.
What people are really "buying", IMHO, is nostalgia for the 1990s.
Certainly not £300 plus good. Greedy f***ers.
Prior to this weekend I've only ever paid £350 per ticket for two artists/bands.
Madonna and The Rolling Stones, I do not regret either, I suspect I will regret paying that much for Oasis, at least I will get a weekend break in London out of it.
I suppose you'll exceed that when Steps do an Oasis. Sadly I guess it will be without H.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
I make a delicious - if I say so myself (and I do) - smoked haddock and leek risotto. And, yes, Parmesan goes on at the end, and it rocks the solar system
It sounds vile yet on occasion cheese with fish is yum. It can also work on a classic fish pie, for instance
Yep, I’ve done something similar though possibly not as delicious as yours. I guess the purist might claim the strong flavours of the smoked fish, cheese and even leek would clash with each other but bring it on I say.
Yes, American vehicles are nothing like what you get on UK roads.
What's crazy is people who think British vehicles are anything like American ones, or try to use American statistics and claim they have a relevance in this country.
There's a reason pedestrian fatalities have been collapsing in this country, while rising in the States.
Yes, American vehicles are nothing like what you get on UK roads.
What's crazy is people who think British vehicles are anything like American ones, or try to use American statistics and claim they have a relevance in this country.
There's a reason pedestrian fatalities have been collapsing in this country, while rising in the States.
Is it because we haven't yet adopted your ideas on urban planning?
I think it is more likely that Michael Stone is innocent than Lucy Letby. But he is not a photogenic young female.
I agree that this is a much much more troubling case. Quite rare as a troubling case where the defendant did not (IIRC) give evidence - a circumstance which in general occurs when a guilty person intends to take their chance and not make it worse for themselves.
Yes, American vehicles are nothing like what you get on UK roads.
What's crazy is people who think British vehicles are anything like American ones, or try to use American statistics and claim they have a relevance in this country.
There's a reason pedestrian fatalities have been collapsing in this country, while rising in the States.
Is it because we haven't yet adopted your ideas on urban planning?
Sadly the problem with the Lucy Letby story is that it is becoming part of the culture wars.
I've seen stuff on social media by the same bellends who think Covid was a hoax saying she is innocent, you have the prize roaster Nadine fucking Dorries saying stuff like 'Has the British justice system thrown a young woman into jail for life in order to save the tarnished reputation of the NHS?'
She's also gone down the route that if the government can fund union pay rises they should pay for the Lucy Letby appeal.
I think there is a distinction - if a bit blurred - between culture warriors and the anti-WEF/5G/Vaxxer brigade. It's the latter who seem most agitated by Letby.
I worry about your browsing habits if you get regular exposure to the thoughts of that "brigade" but if you are right, so what? Adolf Hitler probably accepted a heliocentric picture of the solar system but that doesn't hugely affect the merits of that picture.
That's my local Facebook/Nextdoor. Honourable mention to the fur baby lovers (XL Bullies).
I didn't mean anything by my comment, only that I think the right-wing culture warriors have a loose hold on reality in a way that the anti-5G folks do not.
I have no idea about Letby but it strikes me that each concern about the case is taken in isolation, rather than looking at the full picture as the jury did. I think the comparison with the Post Office is wrong unless you are alleging a institutional conspiracy against that NHS trust (which isn't a particularly mad idea, but at least put those cards on the table).
I have no idea whether Letby is innocent or guilty, I'd hope she's guilty given that's what the jury found, but then the criminal justice system in this country has a long ignoble history of finding innocent people guilty.
The Post Office subpostmasters are some some in a long line of those wrongly found guilty. Malkinson, Sally Clark and many, many more.
The only people more foolish than those adamant that Letby must be innocent because they distrust the state are those who claim she must be guilty because that's what a jury found. Miscarriages of justice absolutely can and do happen - I have no evidence to suggest Letby's case is one, but it should never be ruled out for any case which is one reason we should never have the death penalty even for the most horrific crimes.
Quite. The null hypothesis is that she didn't do it - most nurses don't. The test which proves she did it is the same test as threw up 700 out of 700 FPs in the PO case. So if your stance is "I don't want to get involved in the minutiae" let her out is the only possible position. If you do want to get involved in minutiae there's lots above the trial that absolutely sucks. And this is not the place to discuss it. But top tip: It must be right if highly paid lawyers were involved is not a cogent argument.
I think that the Americans are starting to take this seriously is quite important. They are the trend setter when it comes to vehicles.
That's it's a concern over other car occupants that is driving this, rather than increased fatalities for pedestrians and cyclists, is very American too.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
I was lambasted by an elderly stranger in Sienna who saw me doing that from an adjacent table and was inconsolable. I'd probably enjoy the combination as much as you but the painful memory intervenes.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Pretty well, yes.
Also, pasta with cream is not nice, IMO.
Generally in agreement re pasta with cream. That fake carbonara muck that gets vended at some dining establishments is a great example. But make it in the traditional way with just the cheese, egg and black pepper for a sauce - stunning.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Pretty well, yes.
Also, pasta with cream is not nice, IMO.
Generally is agreement re pasta with cream. That fake carbonara muck that gets vended at some dining establishments is a great example. But make it in the traditional way with just the cheese, egg and black pepper for a sauce - stunning.
The key, I'm told, is to use a couple of spoons of pasta water to help emulsify the egg/cheese mix.
Yes, American vehicles are nothing like what you get on UK roads.
What's crazy is people who think British vehicles are anything like American ones, or try to use American statistics and claim they have a relevance in this country.
There's a reason pedestrian fatalities have been collapsing in this country, while rising in the States.
A very important point. SUV means something different in the US.
Yes, American vehicles are nothing like what you get on UK roads.
What's crazy is people who think British vehicles are anything like American ones, or try to use American statistics and claim they have a relevance in this country.
There's a reason pedestrian fatalities have been collapsing in this country, while rising in the States.
A very important point. SUV means something different in the US.
Yes, if you remember the fatal accident that Bruce Jenner was involved in, the type of vehicle he was driving doesn't really exist on our roads.
Just relistened to their first three albums and their lyrics and chords are boring, and their singing whining. They had a bit of style but that was very much in the mood of those times.
What people are really "buying", IMHO, is nostalgia for the 1990s.
Certainly not £300 plus good. Greedy f***ers.
Prior to this weekend I've only ever paid £350 per ticket for two artists/bands.
Madonna and The Rolling Stones, I do not regret either, I suspect I will regret paying that much for Oasis, at least I will get a weekend break in London out of it.
Pulp I could understanding paying a bit to see - oasis not so much
Don’t get why anyone would post this sort of thing. So what of people want to pay top,dollar to see The Oasis.. the world don’t move to the beat of just one drum.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Pretty well, yes.
Also, pasta with cream is not nice, IMO.
Generally in agreement re pasta with cream. That fake carbonara muck that gets vended at some dining establishments is a great example. But make it in the traditional way with just the cheese, egg and black pepper for a sauce - stunning.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
I make a delicious - if I say so myself (and I do) - smoked haddock and leek risotto. And, yes, Parmesan goes on at the end, and it rocks the solar system
It sounds vile yet on occasion cheese with fish is yum. It can also work on a classic fish pie, for instance
Yep, I’ve done something similar though possibly not as delicious as yours. I guess the purist might claim the strong flavours of the smoked fish, cheese and even leek would clash with each other but bring it on I say.
Avocado and marmite? Who knew? Well, the Aussies did, eventually. Likewise, strawberries with black pepper, chocolate/caramel with sea salt
Generally it’s bad news to combine two stand out flavours but sometimes it simply works
Thinking about it, I wonder if there is an underlying rule about strong sweet/savoury working well with umami
Yes, American vehicles are nothing like what you get on UK roads.
What's crazy is people who think British vehicles are anything like American ones, or try to use American statistics and claim they have a relevance in this country.
There's a reason pedestrian fatalities have been collapsing in this country, while rising in the States.
A very important point. SUV means something different in the US.
Yes, if you remember the fatal accident that Bruce Jenner was involved in, the type of vehicle he was driving doesn't really exist on our roads.
Sadly the problem with the Lucy Letby story is that it is becoming part of the culture wars.
I've seen stuff on social media by the same bellends who think Covid was a hoax saying she is innocent, you have the prize roaster Nadine fucking Dorries saying stuff like 'Has the British justice system thrown a young woman into jail for life in order to save the tarnished reputation of the NHS?'
She's also gone down the route that if the government can fund union pay rises they should pay for the Lucy Letby appeal.
Yes, if there is grounds for appeal it should be in court rather than trial by media.
I don't remember such a clamour about miscarriage of justice for Allit or Shipman.
Because in those cases there weren’t serious questions raised about the evidence.
Letby has already been to the Court of Appeal. For all I know the second trial will go there as well.
There is however a serious question about whether there are serious questions raised about the evidence.
If there are it will be possible to encapsulate in short paragraphs of plain English exactly what the reasons or grounds are for reviewing bits of evidence and how exactly additional evidence tends to disclose reasonable doubt. This is quite different from generalised hand waving, of which there has been a lot.
I keep an open mind but have seen nothing yet of any use.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Sadly the problem with the Lucy Letby story is that it is becoming part of the culture wars.
I've seen stuff on social media by the same bellends who think Covid was a hoax saying she is innocent, you have the prize roaster Nadine fucking Dorries saying stuff like 'Has the British justice system thrown a young woman into jail for life in order to save the tarnished reputation of the NHS?'
She's also gone down the route that if the government can fund union pay rises they should pay for the Lucy Letby appeal.
I think there is a distinction - if a bit blurred - between culture warriors and the anti-WEF/5G/Vaxxer brigade. It's the latter who seem most agitated by Letby.
I worry about your browsing habits if you get regular exposure to the thoughts of that "brigade" but if you are right, so what? Adolf Hitler probably accepted a heliocentric picture of the solar system but that doesn't hugely affect the merits of that picture.
That's my local Facebook/Nextdoor. Honourable mention to the fur baby lovers (XL Bullies).
I didn't mean anything by my comment, only that I think the right-wing culture warriors have a loose hold on reality in a way that the anti-5G folks do not.
I have no idea about Letby but it strikes me that each concern about the case is taken in isolation, rather than looking at the full picture as the jury did. I think the comparison with the Post Office is wrong unless you are alleging a institutional conspiracy against that NHS trust (which isn't a particularly mad idea, but at least put those cards on the table).
I have no idea whether Letby is innocent or guilty, I'd hope she's guilty given that's what the jury found, but then the criminal justice system in this country has a long ignoble history of finding innocent people guilty.
The Post Office subpostmasters are some some in a long line of those wrongly found guilty. Malkinson, Sally Clark and many, many more.
The only people more foolish than those adamant that Letby must be innocent because they distrust the state are those who claim she must be guilty because that's what a jury found. Miscarriages of justice absolutely can and do happen - I have no evidence to suggest Letby's case is one, but it should never be ruled out for any case which is one reason we should never have the death penalty even for the most horrific crimes.
Quite. The null hypothesis is that she didn't do it - most nurses don't. The test which proves she did it is the same test as threw up 700 out of 700 FPs in the PO case. So if your stance is "I don't want to get involved in the minutiae" let her out is the only possible position. If you do want to get involved in minutiae there's lots above the trial that absolutely sucks. And this is not the place to discuss it. But top tip: It must be right if highly paid lawyers were involved is not a cogent argument.
Indeed: she is innocent until proven guilty. And, I agree, the statistical evidence on its own certainly does not clear that hurdle. It's like if you pointed to a lottery winner and said "Really, they won by chance did they? that's a 16 million to one chance. Luck, my arse."
And juries struggle with that; I'm reminded of the cot death case from decades ago. Statistically, there's going to be one person every five years or so who has two kids die of cot deaths; that's the nature of random chance.
In this case, though, it wasn't just about the statistics, it was also about her diary, notes, and behaviour.
I don't know if she's guilty; I wasn't in the courtroom, and I worry about juries not properly understanding statistics. In other words, if this was a case of "experts" proclaiming her guilty, then I think she would have a much stronger case.
But this isn't just about statistics, there was other evidence too.
The German compound noun for “the sense of just settling in for the night into a lovely hotel room only to realise there’s a massive black fly in here too”
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Yes - I sometimes have salmon or other fish with a cheese sauce or other sauce such as pepper sauce that one might have with a steak.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
This really blows up a lot of stuff. IE there is a public Inquiry being set up in to how she got away with it, only now there is starting to be significant doubt as to whether she is guilty.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Nice to meet a fellow pervert.
Needs pineapple.
I went into the chip shop today at teatime, and the first thing he said when I walked through the door, over the head of the queue, was "Pineapple Fritter?" - so either I'm typecast (it's only the third one I've had in over a month) or wheeling a Brompton into his shop is distinctive.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Pretty well, yes.
Also, pasta with cream is not nice, IMO.
Generally in agreement re pasta with cream. That fake carbonara muck that gets vended at some dining establishments is a great example. But make it in the traditional way with just the cheese, egg and black pepper for a sauce - stunning.
That sounds a little more like Cacio e Pepe. For Carbonara you'd want guanciale, or at least decent bacon.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
Right. But at the point they changed "Man" to "Player", they must have thought "this is going to change it for everything back to 18-whatever, do we want to do that?"
Second day of autumn, and we've got very autumnal weather. Grey, damp, chilly.
We must have had under 10 days of actual summer weather this year.
I blame the Labour government.
I don't normally like to complain about the weather (or weather apps, as I know how they work). But back from another ghastly August week in Devon I've finally had enough. Last week was forecast to be largely sunny and dry. Yet in reality we had several days of grey skies and rain (and the apps were showing sunny skies at the time).
In the words of a recent survivor of a life threatening existence - enough. Time to move the UK south by 500 miles. We have enough engineers on PB - there must be away?
Or if not relocating the UK, lets roll back on our climate change mitigation. I keep being promised a warmer UK with a mediterranean climate - bring it on! Fire up the wood burners, tear down the wind farms and solar parks and burn that coal.
Enough.
I was just planning to go swimming in a lake this evening. The water temperature should be more than fine with my wetsuit (in fact, perhaps a tad too warm), but then it started raining.
"I'm not swimming in the rain!" I thought.
Then I realised how utterly stoopid that was...
Lightning!
My mum used worry if I went out with wet hair in case I got a cold. She had no problem with me capsizing a boat though
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Yes - I sometimes have salmon or other fish with a cheese sauce or other sauce such as pepper sauce that one might have with a steak.
Works surprisingly well.
Not with smoked salmon, though.
Cheese with fish exists in plenty of cuisines. Cod Mornay, for example.
And a Mornay sauce contains Parmesan, so the French disagree with the Italians on the matter.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
Right. But at the point they changed "Man" to "Player", they must have thought "this is going to change it for everything back to 18-whatever, do we want to do that?"
I suspect 95% of their page views will be for recent games, so their choices were:
(1) Do this 10 second change to the template, so that it's accurate going forward (2) Leave it, so it's not correct, and also is probably wrong for women's cricket (3) Create a new database field, showing the correct title for each specfic game. Write some code to correctly backfill it. Then write some more Javascript to pull in the right title.
Now, they should have done (3). But it's a bunch more work than (1).
Never attribute to malice that which might otherwise be explained by incompetence.
On robots and war. There is a short science fiction story on the subject that I rather like. In the future, robots have become so much better at war that, when Armageddon comes along, earth's government sends in robots to fight against the devil's forces.
The robots are victorious, and so they receive the reward. The story ends as the humans watch the robots ascending into heaven.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Pretty well, yes.
Also, pasta with cream is not nice, IMO.
Generally in agreement re pasta with cream. That fake carbonara muck that gets vended at some dining establishments is a great example. But make it in the traditional way with just the cheese, egg and black pepper for a sauce - stunning.
That sounds a little more like Cacio e Pepe. For Carbonara you'd want guanciale, or at least decent bacon.
Carbonara is apparently an invention of the mid 20th century, so it’s not some ur-dish originating in the mists of ancient time.
I don’t make it with cream myself because the drier “traditional” recipe is nicest, but the outrage at messing with dishes like this is completely confected.
This really blows up a lot of stuff. IE there is a public Inquiry being set up in to how she got away with it, only now there is starting to be significant doubt as to whether she is guilty.
I have listened to David Davis. Nothing to see here, unless someone can come up with forensic detail he alleges exists but inexplicably the defence ignored/was ignorant of/didn't use.
One other note. Babies died in the hospial in the relevant period but where Letby was not charged and SFAICS not involved. This is thought to be evidence of something relevant. It isn't.
The problem with British justice is that it is SLOW, and getting slower. To an extent where that this is an injustice in itself. But notably erroneous compared to other systems? Nope. It finally and generally reaches the correct verdict, albeit with some abhorrent mistakes, which we are then alert to
It feels like a small amount of money would go a long way in improving the delays in the criminal justice system, unlike some other problems where a few billion or tens of billions will not have an immediate noticable effect.
The last time I did jury duty was quite something. We were to be presented with video evidence. It took quite some time to find the Precious DVD Player from the Before Times. And several goes before it would accept the Blessed DVD of Evidence. At which point, with all the quality of a tape-to-taped Betamax copied 100 times since 1982 it was shown to us from about 3000ft away on a wobble 14" screen. Which was on a stool.
After various complaints we were shown it from about 50ft instead.
And to think, some poor f**ker's liberty depended on it.
Must have been the best part of an afternoon futzing about with a £20 dvd player and dragging an old telly about on a stool. I've no idea how much that cost in judge/lawyer/hangers-on/jury-members time, but more than £20 I'm sure.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
Right. But at the point they changed "Man" to "Player", they must have thought "this is going to change it for everything back to 18-whatever, do we want to do that?"
It's much more likely they gave it zero thought at all.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
Right. But at the point they changed "Man" to "Player", they must have thought "this is going to change it for everything back to 18-whatever, do we want to do that?"
I suspect 95% of their page views will be for recent games, so their choices were:
(1) Do this 10 second change to the template, so that it's accurate going forward (2) Leave it, so it's not correct, and also is probably wrong for women's cricket (3) Create a new database field, showing the correct title for each specfic game. Write some code to correctly backfill it. Then write some more Javascript to pull in the right title.
Now, they should have done (3). But it's a bunch more work than (1).
Never attribute to malice that which might otherwise be explained by incompetence.
In this case, not even incompetence. More like indolence.
(Which is probably true in general, come to think of it.)
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
Indeed, that was my point. You've just put it much better.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Pretty well, yes.
Also, pasta with cream is not nice, IMO.
Generally in agreement re pasta with cream. That fake carbonara muck that gets vended at some dining establishments is a great example. But make it in the traditional way with just the cheese, egg and black pepper for a sauce - stunning.
That sounds a little more like Cacio e Pepe. For Carbonara you'd want guanciale, or at least decent bacon.
Carbonara is apparently an invention of the mid 20th century, so it’s not some ur-dish originating in the mists of ancient time.
I don’t make it with cream myself because the drier “traditional” recipe is nicest, but the outrage at messing with dishes like this is completely confected.
I didn't mean to suggest it was a precious recipe from the mists of time. Just that's the way it's made in Rome for the recent-ish past and present. Cacio e Pepe is delicious - just a different thing to Carbonara.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
Right. But at the point they changed "Man" to "Player", they must have thought "this is going to change it for everything back to 18-whatever, do we want to do that?"
I suspect 95% of their page views will be for recent games, so their choices were:
(1) Do this 10 second change to the template, so that it's accurate going forward (2) Leave it, so it's not correct, and also is probably wrong for women's cricket (3) Create a new database field, showing the correct title for each specfic game. Write some code to correctly backfill it. Then write some more Javascript to pull in the right title.
Now, they should have done (3). But it's a bunch more work than (1).
Never attribute to malice that which might otherwise be explained by incompetence.
In this case, not even incompetence. More like indolence.
(Which is probably true in general, come to think of it.)
I think it is more likely that Michael Stone is innocent than Lucy Letby. But he is not a photogenic young female.
I haven’t seen enough evidence to prove that Lucy Letby is innocent. I think there’s enough evidence to commission an enquiry about corporate neglect in the Countess of Chester hospital.
Of course, the legal system doesn't require proof that she's innocent - just a reasonable doubt.
There isn't reasonable doubt. She was the only one on the ward when all the deaths occurred, she insisted relatives absent themselves on several occassions very near when they passed away, most died from air being administered, and she wrote a harrowing self-confession about it all.
She's mentally ill/psychopathic, and it can happen to attractive young women too.
The corporate neglect is definitely a thing too because the Trust decided to slap about any doctors who raised concerns, rather than investigate.
Not ALL the deaths on the ward though. There were others that didn’t make it onto the incriminating chart. There are serious statistical issues around the slam dunk of ‘she was the only one present for all the deaths’, not least that those deaths are a cherry pick of ALL deaths on the ward.
Sadly the problem with the Lucy Letby story is that it is becoming part of the culture wars.
I've seen stuff on social media by the same bellends who think Covid was a hoax saying she is innocent, you have the prize roaster Nadine fucking Dorries saying stuff like 'Has the British justice system thrown a young woman into jail for life in order to save the tarnished reputation of the NHS?'
She's also gone down the route that if the government can fund union pay rises they should pay for the Lucy Letby appeal.
I think there is a distinction - if a bit blurred - between culture warriors and the anti-WEF/5G/Vaxxer brigade. It's the latter who seem most agitated by Letby.
I worry about your browsing habits if you get regular exposure to the thoughts of that "brigade" but if you are right, so what? Adolf Hitler probably accepted a heliocentric picture of the solar system but that doesn't hugely affect the merits of that picture.
It depends where you monitor.
I see a surprising amount of conspiraloon WEF/5G/Vaxxer stuff on motorist groups who campaign against LTNs and 15 Minute Cities for example, with obsessions about how we are all going to be locked inside them like The Prisoner, motoring Youtube channels, and from some on fora around Reform UK (which I keep an eye on because Agent Anderson is my MP).
Though TBF it's mainly followers not principals.
It's the same types who have obsessive themes about Two Tier Kier and a new authoritarianism and so on, and 'look at all those people who went to prison for posting on Facebook whilst those Muslims who beat up the policeman at Manchester Airport have not been charged" - without even the faintest possibility of realising that the first lot are those who plead guilty so need no trial.
One of the strangest is a local Youtuber from Sheffield called Tim Wells who does interesting little videos wandering about localities in the area, with his personal memories, but he's completely obsessed with how cycle lanes will destroy the world at the behest of I know not who. Questioning him in his comments he seems to have gone head first down the rabbithole David Icke style on that particular thing.
Sadly the problem with the Lucy Letby story is that it is becoming part of the culture wars.
I've seen stuff on social media by the same bellends who think Covid was a hoax saying she is innocent, you have the prize roaster Nadine fucking Dorries saying stuff like 'Has the British justice system thrown a young woman into jail for life in order to save the tarnished reputation of the NHS?'
She's also gone down the route that if the government can fund union pay rises they should pay for the Lucy Letby appeal.
An astute point. Also, what’s this sudden American interest in alleged lapses in UK justice? Quite odd - and feeds into your argument about kulturkampf
The American far right interest in the UK (sic) justice system is that it fills the conspiracy theories that the woke are hiding stuff whereas in America they just do not do that.
In the UK we have pretty strict sub judice rules in place for centuries, but in the MAGA crowd it is 'stuff is being hidden to prosecute patriots' bullshit.
On the left there's an interest in our justice because UK prosecutors do not threaten people with 100 year long sentences to get them plead to a less 20 year sentence crime.
The American interest in the UK is usually afaics because some Usonian nutter movement or other want to try and justify themselves, without having to look at themselves in the mirror.
I think that the Americans are starting to take this seriously is quite important. They are the trend setter when it comes to vehicles.
That's it's a concern over other car occupants that is driving this, rather than increased fatalities for pedestrians and cyclists, is very American too.
They are not remotely the trend setter.
We've been going in opposite directions to them for decades and our stats reflect the choices British drivers make, not American ones, as a result.
Sadly the problem with the Lucy Letby story is that it is becoming part of the culture wars.
I've seen stuff on social media by the same bellends who think Covid was a hoax saying she is innocent, you have the prize roaster Nadine fucking Dorries saying stuff like 'Has the British justice system thrown a young woman into jail for life in order to save the tarnished reputation of the NHS?'
She's also gone down the route that if the government can fund union pay rises they should pay for the Lucy Letby appeal.
I think there is a distinction - if a bit blurred - between culture warriors and the anti-WEF/5G/Vaxxer brigade. It's the latter who seem most agitated by Letby.
I worry about your browsing habits if you get regular exposure to the thoughts of that "brigade" but if you are right, so what? Adolf Hitler probably accepted a heliocentric picture of the solar system but that doesn't hugely affect the merits of that picture.
It depends where you monitor.
I see a surprising amount of conspiraloon WEF/5G/Vaxxer stuff on motorist groups who campaign against LTNs and 15 Minute Cities for example with obsessions about how we are all going to be locked inside them like The Prisoner, motoring Youtube channels, and on fora around Reform UK (which I keep an eye on because Agent Anderson is my MP).
Though TBF it's mainly followers not principals.
It's the same types who have obsessive themes about Two Tier Kier and a new authoritarianism and so on, and 'look at all those people who went to prison for posting on Facebook whilst those Muslims who beat up the policeman at Manchester Airport have not been charged" - without even the faintest possibility of realising that the first lot are those who plead guilty so need no trial.
One of the strangest is a local Youtuber from Sheffield called Tim Wells who does interesting little videos about localities in the area, but he's completely obsessed with how cycle lanes will destroy the world at the behest of I know not who - and questioning him in his comments he seems to have gone head first down the rabbithole David Icke style. https://www.youtube.com/@timawells/videos
Have you listened to the Jon Ronson podcast about the origins of the "15 Minute City"?
It's a great - but also incredibly depressing - listen.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Pretty well, yes.
Also, pasta with cream is not nice, IMO.
Generally in agreement re pasta with cream. That fake carbonara muck that gets vended at some dining establishments is a great example. But make it in the traditional way with just the cheese, egg and black pepper for a sauce - stunning.
That sounds a little more like Cacio e Pepe. For Carbonara you'd want guanciale, or at least decent bacon.
Carbonara is apparently an invention of the mid 20th century, so it’s not some ur-dish originating in the mists of ancient time.
Sadly, Alberto Grandi's thesis on the topic of the invention of the italian food myth was never translated into English. It caused quite a stir in Italy:
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Pretty well, yes.
Also, pasta with cream is not nice, IMO.
Generally in agreement re pasta with cream. That fake carbonara muck that gets vended at some dining establishments is a great example. But make it in the traditional way with just the cheese, egg and black pepper for a sauce - stunning.
That sounds a little more like Cacio e Pepe. For Carbonara you'd want guanciale, or at least decent bacon.
Carbonara is apparently an invention of the mid 20th century, so it’s not some ur-dish originating in the mists of ancient time.
I don’t make it with cream myself because the drier “traditional” recipe is nicest, but the outrage at messing with dishes like this is completely confected.
I didn't mean to suggest it was a precious recipe from the mists of time. Just that's the way it's made in Rome for the recent-ish past and present. Cacio e Pepe is delicious - just a different thing to Carbonara.
And I wasn’t specifically responding to your post, just meditating on the Italian penchant for preciousness about cuisine. Which I suspect is also largely a recent pop culture / social media phenomenon.
Sadly the problem with the Lucy Letby story is that it is becoming part of the culture wars.
I've seen stuff on social media by the same bellends who think Covid was a hoax saying she is innocent, you have the prize roaster Nadine fucking Dorries saying stuff like 'Has the British justice system thrown a young woman into jail for life in order to save the tarnished reputation of the NHS?'
She's also gone down the route that if the government can fund union pay rises they should pay for the Lucy Letby appeal.
I think there is a distinction - if a bit blurred - between culture warriors and the anti-WEF/5G/Vaxxer brigade. It's the latter who seem most agitated by Letby.
I worry about your browsing habits if you get regular exposure to the thoughts of that "brigade" but if you are right, so what? Adolf Hitler probably accepted a heliocentric picture of the solar system but that doesn't hugely affect the merits of that picture.
That's my local Facebook/Nextdoor. Honourable mention to the fur baby lovers (XL Bullies).
I didn't mean anything by my comment, only that I think the right-wing culture warriors have a loose hold on reality in a way that the anti-5G folks do not.
I have no idea about Letby but it strikes me that each concern about the case is taken in isolation, rather than looking at the full picture as the jury did. I think the comparison with the Post Office is wrong unless you are alleging a institutional conspiracy against that NHS trust (which isn't a particularly mad idea, but at least put those cards on the table).
I have no idea whether Letby is innocent or guilty, I'd hope she's guilty given that's what the jury found, but then the criminal justice system in this country has a long ignoble history of finding innocent people guilty.
The Post Office subpostmasters are some some in a long line of those wrongly found guilty. Malkinson, Sally Clark and many, many more.
The only people more foolish than those adamant that Letby must be innocent because they distrust the state are those who claim she must be guilty because that's what a jury found. Miscarriages of justice absolutely can and do happen - I have no evidence to suggest Letby's case is one, but it should never be ruled out for any case which is one reason we should never have the death penalty even for the most horrific crimes.
Quite. The null hypothesis is that she didn't do it - most nurses don't. The test which proves she did it is the same test as threw up 700 out of 700 FPs in the PO case. So if your stance is "I don't want to get involved in the minutiae" let her out is the only possible position. If you do want to get involved in minutiae there's lots above the trial that absolutely sucks. And this is not the place to discuss it. But top tip: It must be right if highly paid lawyers were involved is not a cogent argument.
Indeed: she is innocent until proven guilty. And, I agree, the statistical evidence on its own certainly does not clear that hurdle. It's like if you pointed to a lottery winner and said "Really, they won by chance did they? that's a 16 million to one chance. Luck, my arse."
And juries struggle with that; I'm reminded of the cot death case from decades ago. Statistically, there's going to be one person every five years or so who has two kids die of cot deaths; that's the nature of random chance.
In this case, though, it wasn't just about the statistics, it was also about her diary, notes, and behaviour.
I don't know if she's guilty; I wasn't in the courtroom, and I worry about juries not properly understanding statistics. In other words, if this was a case of "experts" proclaiming her guilty, then I think she would have a much stronger case.
But this isn't just about statistics, there was other evidence too.
But her diary/notes (from the limited amount I've seen about what's out there) are entirely explainable by someone who is innocent feeling guilty because they're going through a shitty situation and they feel bad about that.
So I hope there's more to it than just that, or else we're back to just the statistical issue, which is concerning.
"Parmesan, he says, is remarkably ancient, around a millennium old. But before the 1960s, wheels of parmesan cheese weighed only about 10kg (as opposed to the hefty 40kg wheels we know today) and were encased in a thick black crust. Its texture was fatter and softer than it is nowadays. “Some even say that this cheese, as a sign of quality, had to squeeze out a drop of milk when pressed,” Grandi says. “Its exact modern-day match is Wisconsin parmesan.” He believes that early 20th-century Italian immigrants, probably from the Po’ region north of Parma, started producing it in Wisconsin and, unlike the cheesemakers back in Parma, their recipe never evolved. So while Parmigiano in Italy became over the years a fair-crusted, hard cheese produced in giant wheels, Wisconsin parmesan stayed true to the original."
This really blows up a lot of stuff. IE there is a public Inquiry being set up in to how she got away with it, only now there is starting to be significant doubt as to whether she is guilty.
I have listened to David Davis. Nothing to see here, unless someone can come up with forensic detail he alleges exists but inexplicably the defence ignored/was ignorant of/didn't use.
One other note. Babies died in the hospial in the relevant period but where Letby was not charged and SFAICS not involved. This is thought to be evidence of something relevant. It isn't.
The statistical question is about why certain cases were selected as murders and by who. The killer chart has been decried by serious statisticians as potentially very flawed. I get the whiff of Meadows/Clark about the evidence. Members of the jury would not be expected to understand really basic stats, let alone Bayes theory etc.
I think it is more likely that Michael Stone is innocent than Lucy Letby. But he is not a photogenic young female.
I haven’t seen enough evidence to prove that Lucy Letby is innocent. I think there’s enough evidence to commission an enquiry about corporate neglect in the Countess of Chester hospital.
Of course, the legal system doesn't require proof that she's innocent - just a reasonable doubt.
There isn't reasonable doubt. She was the only one on the ward when all the deaths occurred, she insisted relatives absent themselves on several occassions very near when they passed away, most died from air being administered, and she wrote a harrowing self-confession about it all.
She's mentally ill/psychopathic, and it can happen to attractive young women too.
The corporate neglect is definitely a thing too because the Trust decided to slap about any doctors who raised concerns, rather than investigate.
Not ALL the deaths on the ward though. There were others that didn’t make it onto the incriminating chart. There are serious statistical issues around the slam dunk of ‘she was the only one present for all the deaths’, not least that those deaths are a cherry pick of ALL deaths on the ward.
wasnt it that these weren't the sickest babies (who might well die from severity of illness or even medical negligence) but rather babies that had got though the worst and expected to continue to recover, hence unexpected rather than expected deaths?
A baby dying despite treatment from major sepsis is a different thing to a baby who has been fine for days suddenly and inexplicably collapsing and dying.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
Indeed, that was my point. You've just put it much better.
I'm sure this is correct yet it is genuinely now producing wrong answers. Hundreds of players are now being awarded something they weren't awarded and denied something they were. Stokes wasn't POTM in 2019, he was MOTM. They would be horrified to get the numbers wrong, yet this is also wrong. And yes, I think it a great example of woke.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Pretty well, yes.
Also, pasta with cream is not nice, IMO.
Generally in agreement re pasta with cream. That fake carbonara muck that gets vended at some dining establishments is a great example. But make it in the traditional way with just the cheese, egg and black pepper for a sauce - stunning.
That sounds a little more like Cacio e Pepe. For Carbonara you'd want guanciale, or at least decent bacon.
Carbonara is apparently an invention of the mid 20th century, so it’s not some ur-dish originating in the mists of ancient time.
I don’t make it with cream myself because the drier “traditional” recipe is nicest, but the outrage at messing with dishes like this is completely confected.
Carbonara was invented by in 1944 by a Roman chef for a dinner held by top brass in the occupying American army. The Americans had two absolutely essential ingredients that weren't available in Italy at the time: good quality bacon and army issue powdered eggs.
You need powdered eggs and American bacon for an authentic carbonara.
Interesting article if you can get past the paywall. The author's thesis is almost all Italian traditional dishes were invented after the Second World War when people shook off centuries of poverty and could afford a diet that didn't just consist of bread, root vegetables and dried beans.
I think it is more likely that Michael Stone is innocent than Lucy Letby. But he is not a photogenic young female.
I haven’t seen enough evidence to prove that Lucy Letby is innocent. I think there’s enough evidence to commission an enquiry about corporate neglect in the Countess of Chester hospital.
Of course, the legal system doesn't require proof that she's innocent - just a reasonable doubt.
There isn't reasonable doubt. She was the only one on the ward when all the deaths occurred, she insisted relatives absent themselves on several occassions very near when they passed away, most died from air being administered, and she wrote a harrowing self-confession about it all.
She's mentally ill/psychopathic, and it can happen to attractive young women too.
The corporate neglect is definitely a thing too because the Trust decided to slap about any doctors who raised concerns, rather than investigate.
Not ALL the deaths on the ward though. There were others that didn’t make it onto the incriminating chart. There are serious statistical issues around the slam dunk of ‘she was the only one present for all the deaths’, not least that those deaths are a cherry pick of ALL deaths on the ward.
There aren't, because it was of suspicious deaths only and the probability of so many happening 'by chance' when she was around run to one in several billion.
This is one of those things that will absorb a huge amount of time and energy to argue with those who are convinced otherwise, who will never change their minds.
Sadly the problem with the Lucy Letby story is that it is becoming part of the culture wars.
I've seen stuff on social media by the same bellends who think Covid was a hoax saying she is innocent, you have the prize roaster Nadine fucking Dorries saying stuff like 'Has the British justice system thrown a young woman into jail for life in order to save the tarnished reputation of the NHS?'
She's also gone down the route that if the government can fund union pay rises they should pay for the Lucy Letby appeal.
I think there is a distinction - if a bit blurred - between culture warriors and the anti-WEF/5G/Vaxxer brigade. It's the latter who seem most agitated by Letby.
I worry about your browsing habits if you get regular exposure to the thoughts of that "brigade" but if you are right, so what? Adolf Hitler probably accepted a heliocentric picture of the solar system but that doesn't hugely affect the merits of that picture.
That's my local Facebook/Nextdoor. Honourable mention to the fur baby lovers (XL Bullies).
I didn't mean anything by my comment, only that I think the right-wing culture warriors have a loose hold on reality in a way that the anti-5G folks do not.
I have no idea about Letby but it strikes me that each concern about the case is taken in isolation, rather than looking at the full picture as the jury did. I think the comparison with the Post Office is wrong unless you are alleging a institutional conspiracy against that NHS trust (which isn't a particularly mad idea, but at least put those cards on the table).
I have no idea whether Letby is innocent or guilty, I'd hope she's guilty given that's what the jury found, but then the criminal justice system in this country has a long ignoble history of finding innocent people guilty.
The Post Office subpostmasters are some some in a long line of those wrongly found guilty. Malkinson, Sally Clark and many, many more.
The only people more foolish than those adamant that Letby must be innocent because they distrust the state are those who claim she must be guilty because that's what a jury found. Miscarriages of justice absolutely can and do happen - I have no evidence to suggest Letby's case is one, but it should never be ruled out for any case which is one reason we should never have the death penalty even for the most horrific crimes.
Quite. The null hypothesis is that she didn't do it - most nurses don't. The test which proves she did it is the same test as threw up 700 out of 700 FPs in the PO case. So if your stance is "I don't want to get involved in the minutiae" let her out is the only possible position. If you do want to get involved in minutiae there's lots above the trial that absolutely sucks. And this is not the place to discuss it. But top tip: It must be right if highly paid lawyers were involved is not a cogent argument.
Indeed: she is innocent until proven guilty. And, I agree, the statistical evidence on its own certainly does not clear that hurdle. It's like if you pointed to a lottery winner and said "Really, they won by chance did they? that's a 16 million to one chance. Luck, my arse."
And juries struggle with that; I'm reminded of the cot death case from decades ago. Statistically, there's going to be one person every five years or so who has two kids die of cot deaths; that's the nature of random chance.
In this case, though, it wasn't just about the statistics, it was also about her diary, notes, and behaviour.
I don't know if she's guilty; I wasn't in the courtroom, and I worry about juries not properly understanding statistics. In other words, if this was a case of "experts" proclaiming her guilty, then I think she would have a much stronger case.
But this isn't just about statistics, there was other evidence too.
But her diary/notes (from the limited amount I've seen about what's out there) are entirely explainable by someone who is innocent feeling guilty because they're going through a shitty situation and they feel bad about that.
So I hope there's more to it than just that, or else we're back to just the statistical issue, which is concerning.
I think that the Americans are starting to take this seriously is quite important. They are the trend setter when it comes to vehicles.
That's it's a concern over other car occupants that is driving this, rather than increased fatalities for pedestrians and cyclists, is very American too.
I'm quite interested to hear that from your good self; perhaps I have taken the wrong emphasis !
My view of Usonians is that on issues around vehicles and road safety they are the lobotomised, knuckle-dragging cavemen of the Western World, not the trend setters. One of the best decisions all the other countries, except possibly Australia / Canada etc, have made,has been to ignore them as far as possible.
There's a reason why they export so few motor vehicles to the civilised world, except where their culture has been imposed - and they have a $100bn deficit on the category in trade figures.
Even their more open-minded USA based traffic engineers wanting to improve road safety (eg Road Guy Rob on Youtube), have not yet got to grips with the very basic idea that the way to make roads safer is to work with Systems Safety across modes, not individual behaviour. The overwhelming theme around pedestrians for example is "how can they keep themselves safe", which is antediluvian - it even defines the academic research which gets done.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
Indeed, that was my point. You've just put it much better.
I'm sure this is correct yet it is genuinely now producing wrong answers. Hundreds of players are now being awarded something they weren't awarded and denied something they were. Stokes wasn't POTM in 2019, he was MOTM. They would be horrified to get the numbers wrong, yet this is also wrong. And yes, I think it a great example of woke.
Its not a wrong answer.
Things get translated all the freaking time. I doubt in a Pakistan v India test its phrased as Man of the Match, yet that's still how you'd have wanted that showing as a few years ago when reading in English.
Nothing wrong with translating words and if the phrasing has changed but its the same thing, then saying that Stokes was player of the match is correct not incorrect if that's what its now called and its been translated into modern English.
I think it is more likely that Michael Stone is innocent than Lucy Letby. But he is not a photogenic young female.
I haven’t seen enough evidence to prove that Lucy Letby is innocent. I think there’s enough evidence to commission an enquiry about corporate neglect in the Countess of Chester hospital.
Of course, the legal system doesn't require proof that she's innocent - just a reasonable doubt.
There isn't reasonable doubt. She was the only one on the ward when all the deaths occurred, she insisted relatives absent themselves on several occassions very near when they passed away, most died from air being administered, and she wrote a harrowing self-confession about it all.
She's mentally ill/psychopathic, and it can happen to attractive young women too.
The corporate neglect is definitely a thing too because the Trust decided to slap about any doctors who raised concerns, rather than investigate.
Not ALL the deaths on the ward though. There were others that didn’t make it onto the incriminating chart. There are serious statistical issues around the slam dunk of ‘she was the only one present for all the deaths’, not least that those deaths are a cherry pick of ALL deaths on the ward.
There aren't, because it was of suspicious deaths only and the probability of so many happening 'by chance' when she was around run to one in several billion.
This is one of those things that will absorb a huge amount of time and energy to argue with those who are convinced otherwise, who will never change their minds.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
There's no reason to drop the third man term imo, and no reason to stop calling batsmen batsmen.
I think it is more likely that Michael Stone is innocent than Lucy Letby. But he is not a photogenic young female.
I haven’t seen enough evidence to prove that Lucy Letby is innocent. I think there’s enough evidence to commission an enquiry about corporate neglect in the Countess of Chester hospital.
Of course, the legal system doesn't require proof that she's innocent - just a reasonable doubt.
There isn't reasonable doubt. She was the only one on the ward when all the deaths occurred, she insisted relatives absent themselves on several occassions very near when they passed away, most died from air being administered, and she wrote a harrowing self-confession about it all.
She's mentally ill/psychopathic, and it can happen to attractive young women too.
The corporate neglect is definitely a thing too because the Trust decided to slap about any doctors who raised concerns, rather than investigate.
Not ALL the deaths on the ward though. There were others that didn’t make it onto the incriminating chart. There are serious statistical issues around the slam dunk of ‘she was the only one present for all the deaths’, not least that those deaths are a cherry pick of ALL deaths on the ward.
wasnt it that these weren't the sickest babies (who might well die from severity of illness or even medical negligence) but rather babies that had got though the worst and expected to continue to recover, hence unexpected rather than expected deaths?
A baby dying despite treatment from major sepsis is a different thing to a baby who has been fine for days suddenly and inexplicably collapsing and dying.
But there must have been a cut off applied. The point remains that there was a decision made about which cases to look at.
I think it is more likely that Michael Stone is innocent than Lucy Letby. But he is not a photogenic young female.
I haven’t seen enough evidence to prove that Lucy Letby is innocent. I think there’s enough evidence to commission an enquiry about corporate neglect in the Countess of Chester hospital.
Of course, the legal system doesn't require proof that she's innocent - just a reasonable doubt.
There isn't reasonable doubt. She was the only one on the ward when all the deaths occurred, she insisted relatives absent themselves on several occassions very near when they passed away, most died from air being administered, and she wrote a harrowing self-confession about it all.
She's mentally ill/psychopathic, and it can happen to attractive young women too.
The corporate neglect is definitely a thing too because the Trust decided to slap about any doctors who raised concerns, rather than investigate.
Not ALL the deaths on the ward though. There were others that didn’t make it onto the incriminating chart. There are serious statistical issues around the slam dunk of ‘she was the only one present for all the deaths’, not least that those deaths are a cherry pick of ALL deaths on the ward.
There aren't, because it was of suspicious deaths only and the probability of so many happening 'by chance' when she was around run to one in several billion.
This is one of those things that will absorb a huge amount of time and energy to argue with those who are convinced otherwise, who will never change their minds.
Someone else used extremely high odds of an event happening to wrongfully convict Sally Clark. I do not know if Letby is guilty or innocent, but I do think she was let down by her defence team, and the statistics used against her MAY be flawed, as has been suggested by better statisticians than me.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
Indeed, that was my point. You've just put it much better.
I'm sure this is correct yet it is genuinely now producing wrong answers. Hundreds of players are now being awarded something they weren't awarded and denied something they were. Stokes wasn't POTM in 2019, he was MOTM. They would be horrified to get the numbers wrong, yet this is also wrong. And yes, I think it a great example of woke.
Its not a wrong answer.
Things get translated all the freaking time. I doubt in a Pakistan v India test its phrased as Man of the Match, yet that's still how you'd have wanted that showing as a few years ago when reading in English.
Nothing wrong with translating words and if the phrasing has changed but its the same thing, then saying that Stokes was player of the match is correct not incorrect if that's what its now called and its been translated into modern English.
Modern English? It was not 1542 for fucks sake, it was 2019. He was man of the match. It will say that in the trophy.
I don't think we've really got to grips with the near term implications of the developments in drone use (and their mass production) during the war. They will not be confined to Ukraine, and I doubt they will be entirely confined to use within the confines of war, either.
I think it is only a matter of time before wars are fought almost entirely using autonomous weapons. Soldiers of the traditional kind will likely be rendered pretty much obsolete. Their job will be primarily to accept surrender and pick up the pieces.
...to service and maintain those robots...
We can already see the beginnings of this with Russia/Ukraine. Ultimately, wars will be won by whichever side has the economic power and the skills to build and maintain the largest and smartest fleet of increasingly autonomous, mainly aerial weapons (and weapon destroyers). Once one side's fleet has gained total superiority, there is be no point whatsoever in the other side continuing to fight. To do so would be suicide.
I seem to remember someone saying that about bomber fleets before WW2.
I don't think we've really got to grips with the near term implications of the developments in drone use (and their mass production) during the war. They will not be confined to Ukraine, and I doubt they will be entirely confined to use within the confines of war, either.
I think it is only a matter of time before wars are fought almost entirely using autonomous weapons. Soldiers of the traditional kind will likely be rendered pretty much obsolete. Their job will be primarily to accept surrender and pick up the pieces.
...to service and maintain those robots...
We can already see the beginnings of this with Russia/Ukraine. Ultimately, wars will be won by whichever side has the economic power and the skills to build and maintain the largest and smartest fleet of increasingly autonomous, mainly aerial weapons (and weapon destroyers). Once one side's fleet has gained total superiority, there is be no point whatsoever in the other side continuing to fight. To do so would be suicide.
I seem to remember someone saying that about bomber fleets before WW2.
The bomber will always get through, and all that. Oddly, by late 1944 the spectre that had haunted the west pre-war had come to pass in Germany.
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Pretty well, yes.
Also, pasta with cream is not nice, IMO.
Generally in agreement re pasta with cream. That fake carbonara muck that gets vended at some dining establishments is a great example. But make it in the traditional way with just the cheese, egg and black pepper for a sauce - stunning.
That sounds a little more like Cacio e Pepe. For Carbonara you'd want guanciale, or at least decent bacon.
Carbonara is apparently an invention of the mid 20th century, so it’s not some ur-dish originating in the mists of ancient time.
I don’t make it with cream myself because the drier “traditional” recipe is nicest, but the outrage at messing with dishes like this is completely confected.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
Indeed, that was my point. You've just put it much better.
I'm sure this is correct yet it is genuinely now producing wrong answers. Hundreds of players are now being awarded something they weren't awarded and denied something they were. Stokes wasn't POTM in 2019, he was MOTM. They would be horrified to get the numbers wrong, yet this is also wrong. And yes, I think it a great example of woke.
Its not a wrong answer.
Things get translated all the freaking time. I doubt in a Pakistan v India test its phrased as Man of the Match, yet that's still how you'd have wanted that showing as a few years ago when reading in English.
Nothing wrong with translating words and if the phrasing has changed but its the same thing, then saying that Stokes was player of the match is correct not incorrect if that's what its now called and its been translated into modern English.
Modern English? It was not 1542 for fucks sake, it was 2019. He was man of the match. It will say that in the trophy.
Its not 2019 anymore, its 2024.
If you're OK with translations, then what's the problem here?
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Pretty well, yes.
Also, pasta with cream is not nice, IMO.
Generally in agreement re pasta with cream. That fake carbonara muck that gets vended at some dining establishments is a great example. But make it in the traditional way with just the cheese, egg and black pepper for a sauce - stunning.
That sounds a little more like Cacio e Pepe. For Carbonara you'd want guanciale, or at least decent bacon.
Carbonara is apparently an invention of the mid 20th century, so it’s not some ur-dish originating in the mists of ancient time.
I don’t make it with cream myself because the drier “traditional” recipe is nicest, but the outrage at messing with dishes like this is completely confected.
Along with Nutella and Ciabatta.
I was surprised to hear the mayor of Bologna a few years ago saying that any sauce could legitimately call itself Bolognese provided it contained the key ingredients of white wine and cow's milk.
That's a very helpful piece, as it fills in gaps in my knowledge.
TL;DR: there's currently a gag order on Lucy Letby reporting because she is due to face trial again on one of the counts the original jury was hung on.
I was confused why the New Yorker (and other magazines) were unable to report, and now I know.
A more general question away from the specifics of this case. Does a gag order apply to foreign publications? Is the New Yorker subject to the gag order because it is sold in the UK? How do these gag orders work when they cannot be enforced (if they cannot be enforced?)
A quick heads-up for anyone wanting to electrify their cycle - Swytch current have a flash autumn sale on, when they are offering their kits at 50% off.
That gets you a front motor wheel, drive sensor, and battery with ~20 miles range for under £500. Various bit and pieces - second battery, dashboard / control unit - can be added. I've just ordered one for the second Brompton.
To get that you probably need to be in their email list already. They have a system where you can get it *now* full price, or wait 1-2 months and get it 40% off with the next "batch". This lets them manage their production. Currently they have an extra discount for delivery in October.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
Indeed, that was my point. You've just put it much better.
I'm sure this is correct yet it is genuinely now producing wrong answers. Hundreds of players are now being awarded something they weren't awarded and denied something they were. Stokes wasn't POTM in 2019, he was MOTM. They would be horrified to get the numbers wrong, yet this is also wrong. And yes, I think it a great example of woke.
Its not a wrong answer.
Things get translated all the freaking time. I doubt in a Pakistan v India test its phrased as Man of the Match, yet that's still how you'd have wanted that showing as a few years ago when reading in English.
Nothing wrong with translating words and if the phrasing has changed but its the same thing, then saying that Stokes was player of the match is correct not incorrect if that's what its now called and its been translated into modern English.
Modern English? It was not 1542 for fucks sake, it was 2019. He was man of the match. It will say that in the trophy.
Its not 2019 anymore, its 2024.
If you're OK with translations, then what's the problem here?
The problem is solving something that isn't a problem. Men playing men's cricket were awarded many of the match since time immemorial. That is a fact. Your 'just a translation' is nothing of the sort. It doesn't need to be done. I have no beef with it being player of the match in the next test, if that's what people want. But don't rewrite history.
Sadly the problem with the Lucy Letby story is that it is becoming part of the culture wars.
I've seen stuff on social media by the same bellends who think Covid was a hoax saying she is innocent, you have the prize roaster Nadine fucking Dorries saying stuff like 'Has the British justice system thrown a young woman into jail for life in order to save the tarnished reputation of the NHS?'
She's also gone down the route that if the government can fund union pay rises they should pay for the Lucy Letby appeal.
I think there is a distinction - if a bit blurred - between culture warriors and the anti-WEF/5G/Vaxxer brigade. It's the latter who seem most agitated by Letby.
I worry about your browsing habits if you get regular exposure to the thoughts of that "brigade" but if you are right, so what? Adolf Hitler probably accepted a heliocentric picture of the solar system but that doesn't hugely affect the merits of that picture.
That's my local Facebook/Nextdoor. Honourable mention to the fur baby lovers (XL Bullies).
I didn't mean anything by my comment, only that I think the right-wing culture warriors have a loose hold on reality in a way that the anti-5G folks do not.
I have no idea about Letby but it strikes me that each concern about the case is taken in isolation, rather than looking at the full picture as the jury did. I think the comparison with the Post Office is wrong unless you are alleging a institutional conspiracy against that NHS trust (which isn't a particularly mad idea, but at least put those cards on the table).
I have no idea whether Letby is innocent or guilty, I'd hope she's guilty given that's what the jury found, but then the criminal justice system in this country has a long ignoble history of finding innocent people guilty.
The Post Office subpostmasters are some some in a long line of those wrongly found guilty. Malkinson, Sally Clark and many, many more.
The only people more foolish than those adamant that Letby must be innocent because they distrust the state are those who claim she must be guilty because that's what a jury found. Miscarriages of justice absolutely can and do happen - I have no evidence to suggest Letby's case is one, but it should never be ruled out for any case which is one reason we should never have the death penalty even for the most horrific crimes.
Quite. The null hypothesis is that she didn't do it - most nurses don't. The test which proves she did it is the same test as threw up 700 out of 700 FPs in the PO case. So if your stance is "I don't want to get involved in the minutiae" let her out is the only possible position. If you do want to get involved in minutiae there's lots above the trial that absolutely sucks. And this is not the place to discuss it. But top tip: It must be right if highly paid lawyers were involved is not a cogent argument.
Indeed: she is innocent until proven guilty. And, I agree, the statistical evidence on its own certainly does not clear that hurdle. It's like if you pointed to a lottery winner and said "Really, they won by chance did they? that's a 16 million to one chance. Luck, my arse."
And juries struggle with that; I'm reminded of the cot death case from decades ago. Statistically, there's going to be one person every five years or so who has two kids die of cot deaths; that's the nature of random chance.
In this case, though, it wasn't just about the statistics, it was also about her diary, notes, and behaviour.
I don't know if she's guilty; I wasn't in the courtroom, and I worry about juries not properly understanding statistics. In other words, if this was a case of "experts" proclaiming her guilty, then I think she would have a much stronger case.
But this isn't just about statistics, there was other evidence too.
But her diary/notes (from the limited amount I've seen about what's out there) are entirely explainable by someone who is innocent feeling guilty because they're going through a shitty situation and they feel bad about that.
So I hope there's more to it than just that, or else we're back to just the statistical issue, which is concerning.
Hang on: the normal response to a baby dying on your ward is not to write in your diary that you're evil. Now, you can argue that it's not enough on it's own, and I agree.
But juries are convinced - normally - by interweaving patterns of evidence. In this case, there are the confessions in her diary (which are perhaps explainable on their own), to which you need to add the behaviour she exhibited around parents, shooing them away from their babies ahead of their untimely demise, you have her answers when being questioned by the police, and you have the statistical evidence.
Each piece on their own is clearly insufficient, the question is whether together they are enough to dispel reasonable doubt.
And I don't know the answer to that. I do know that juries are hopelessly naive with regard to statistics; but I also know that this is not a case which relies solely on them.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
Indeed, that was my point. You've just put it much better.
I'm sure this is correct yet it is genuinely now producing wrong answers. Hundreds of players are now being awarded something they weren't awarded and denied something they were. Stokes wasn't POTM in 2019, he was MOTM. They would be horrified to get the numbers wrong, yet this is also wrong. And yes, I think it a great example of woke.
Its not a wrong answer.
Things get translated all the freaking time. I doubt in a Pakistan v India test its phrased as Man of the Match, yet that's still how you'd have wanted that showing as a few years ago when reading in English.
Nothing wrong with translating words and if the phrasing has changed but its the same thing, then saying that Stokes was player of the match is correct not incorrect if that's what its now called and its been translated into modern English.
Modern English? It was not 1542 for fucks sake, it was 2019. He was man of the match. It will say that in the trophy.
Its not 2019 anymore, its 2024.
If you're OK with translations, then what's the problem here?
The problem is solving something that isn't a problem. Men playing men's cricket were awarded many of the match since time immemorial. That is a fact. Your 'just a translation' is nothing of the sort. It doesn't need to be done. I have no beef with it being player of the match in the next test, if that's what people want. But don't rewrite history.
"Player of the Match" just doesn't sound as good. It's obviously missing the alliteration, and the rhythm is a bit weak too - it seems to give more emphasis to the match than the player.
I think it is more likely that Michael Stone is innocent than Lucy Letby. But he is not a photogenic young female.
I haven’t seen enough evidence to prove that Lucy Letby is innocent. I think there’s enough evidence to commission an enquiry about corporate neglect in the Countess of Chester hospital.
Of course, the legal system doesn't require proof that she's innocent - just a reasonable doubt.
There isn't reasonable doubt. She was the only one on the ward when all the deaths occurred, she insisted relatives absent themselves on several occassions very near when they passed away, most died from air being administered, and she wrote a harrowing self-confession about it all.
She's mentally ill/psychopathic, and it can happen to attractive young women too.
The corporate neglect is definitely a thing too because the Trust decided to slap about any doctors who raised concerns, rather than investigate.
With respect to the bit in bold, it's been suggested that the deaths that were selected as, "murder," were in part chosen on the basis that Letby was on the ward. There were other deaths, excluded from that analysis, where she wasn't present.
So that piece of evidence doesn't seem as conclusive, especially when with some of the deaths it's not necessarily obvious that they were (or were not) due to foul play.
And then the whole palaver with it being ruled inadmissable to let the jury know that one of the doctors giving evidence against her was a former boyfriend? What's that all about?
I've accused myself of all sorts of terrible things when I've been in a black mood, especially when my first marriage was falling apart and my then wife was blaming me for everything. So I don't find that piece of evidence clinching either.
I've had my initial confidence in the verdict shaken somewhat.
You could do a statistical analysis of this on the chances of this being a coincidence but her being present for every abnormal incident and death, on a ward with an abnormally high and unexplained death rate, like that over the course of a year (20+ incidents) is pretty bloody conclusive, in my view.
But this might simply go into the JFK was a plot and Diana was murdered category.
The key thing is the question of which deaths are selected as being abnormal. It doesn't sound like this distinction is as clear as you might think, and so then the definition risks becoming circular.
Why is Letby guilty? Because she was the only person on duty when all the murdered babies died. How do you know those babies were murdered, instead of dying of natural causes? Because Letby was on duty when they died.
A lot of statistics depends on the framing, and in this case that's why I have doubts. If a few different babies had their deaths identified as suspicious, and others not, who else might have been implicated instead?
I am in Brighton for the RSS Conference. The weather is terrible: damp and wet. The conference is fun. There's a reception drinks do later. I shall get squiffy and embarrass myself... 😃
Just don't do the white eared elephant impression.
I shall stick to the classics: incoherent ranting, saying "I read your stuff" or "I know you! You interviewed me!", finishing off with singing badly and loudly. I don't drink so much these days so vom is not on the schedule: literally and metaphorically.
Last conference I attended they served the greatest salmon and cheese sandwiches I have eaten, whilst eating said sandwiches the sounds I made in front of everybody led to HR launching an investigation.
Salmon and cheese? Really?
Cream cheese, a classic combo.
True, but never fancied it.
One of my standards is pasta with cream, asparagus and smoked salmon, classically you’re not supposed to add Parmesan to fish but I do. I suppose that makes me a pervert.
Pretty well, yes.
Also, pasta with cream is not nice, IMO.
Generally in agreement re pasta with cream. That fake carbonara muck that gets vended at some dining establishments is a great example. But make it in the traditional way with just the cheese, egg and black pepper for a sauce - stunning.
That sounds a little more like Cacio e Pepe. For Carbonara you'd want guanciale, or at least decent bacon.
Carbonara is apparently an invention of the mid 20th century, so it’s not some ur-dish originating in the mists of ancient time.
I don’t make it with cream myself because the drier “traditional” recipe is nicest, but the outrage at messing with dishes like this is completely confected.
Along with Nutella and Ciabatta.
I was surprised to hear the mayor of Bologna a few years ago saying that any sauce could legitimately call itself Bolognese provided it contained the key ingredients of white wine and cow's milk.
The most suprising, but useful, advice I have been given on bolognese is to drain the fat off the meat thoroughly after frying: it's an olive oil-based sauce, not a meat fat-based sauce.
I think it is more likely that Michael Stone is innocent than Lucy Letby. But he is not a photogenic young female.
I haven’t seen enough evidence to prove that Lucy Letby is innocent. I think there’s enough evidence to commission an enquiry about corporate neglect in the Countess of Chester hospital.
Of course, the legal system doesn't require proof that she's innocent - just a reasonable doubt.
There isn't reasonable doubt. She was the only one on the ward when all the deaths occurred, she insisted relatives absent themselves on several occassions very near when they passed away, most died from air being administered, and she wrote a harrowing self-confession about it all.
She's mentally ill/psychopathic, and it can happen to attractive young women too.
The corporate neglect is definitely a thing too because the Trust decided to slap about any doctors who raised concerns, rather than investigate.
Not ALL the deaths on the ward though. There were others that didn’t make it onto the incriminating chart. There are serious statistical issues around the slam dunk of ‘she was the only one present for all the deaths’, not least that those deaths are a cherry pick of ALL deaths on the ward.
It is just conceivable that this bit of hand waving captures the beginnings of a ground of appeal. If (big if) the case was in fact presented on a false statistical basis, if in fact other babies died in systemically and evidentially suspicious circumstances when Letby was not present, and if in fact she was NOT the only one present at all relevant deaths.
Very ill babies die in hospitals. Most are not murdered. If that is what this bit of data amounts to, it is not of real forensic interest. You also have to account for the defence not calling expert evidence themselves and not making it a ground of appeal.
The accumulated hand waving suggests that the entire defence and expert community was as thick as planks and couldn't see stuff obvious to keyboard warriors. Always possible if unlikely. But I don't see evidence for it yet. Keep an open mind.
That's a very helpful piece, as it fills in gaps in my knowledge.
TL;DR: there's currently a gag order on Lucy Letby reporting because she is due to face trial again on one of the counts the original jury was hung on.
I was confused why the New Yorker (and other magazines) were unable to report, and now I know.
A more general question away from the specifics of this case. Does a gag order apply to foreign publications? Is the New Yorker subject to the gag order because it is sold in the UK? How do these gag orders work when they cannot be enforced (if they cannot be enforced?)
It's legally 'enforcible' in the UK I think, as in there is liability and their UK edition is subject to UK law. Like Elon Musk was informed that he was subject to EU law for Twitter's publications in the EU before he had his tantrum.
I think the practicalities of enforcement are a matter of fact and degree. Say 100 copies of the New Yorker will not perhaps be deemed enough to undermine the objectivity of the potential Jury, but if they have a UK footprint they could be called into the Court.
Even now, I don't think it's much different from the Spycatcher case - and it is fairly common for material to be published abroad when there is an injunction on publication within the UK - there may even be English / Scottish legal differences which has been a thing before.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
Indeed, that was my point. You've just put it much better.
I'm sure this is correct yet it is genuinely now producing wrong answers. Hundreds of players are now being awarded something they weren't awarded and denied something they were. Stokes wasn't POTM in 2019, he was MOTM. They would be horrified to get the numbers wrong, yet this is also wrong. And yes, I think it a great example of woke.
Its not a wrong answer.
Things get translated all the freaking time. I doubt in a Pakistan v India test its phrased as Man of the Match, yet that's still how you'd have wanted that showing as a few years ago when reading in English.
Nothing wrong with translating words and if the phrasing has changed but its the same thing, then saying that Stokes was player of the match is correct not incorrect if that's what its now called and its been translated into modern English.
Modern English? It was not 1542 for fucks sake, it was 2019. He was man of the match. It will say that in the trophy.
Its not 2019 anymore, its 2024.
If you're OK with translations, then what's the problem here?
The problem is solving something that isn't a problem. Men playing men's cricket were awarded many of the match since time immemorial. That is a fact. Your 'just a translation' is nothing of the sort. It doesn't need to be done. I have no beef with it being player of the match in the next test, if that's what people want. But don't rewrite history.
Its not rewriting history.
If player of the match is what its called today, and if it is the same prize, then that is what it is. That's perfectly legitimate continuity, things can be renamed and the renaming doesn't just affect things going forwards as it remains continuous.
Just as if Sri Lanka awarded a Man of the Match award in Sinhala rather than English you can use the English phrase, or someone there could read it in Sinhala rather than English.
@SkyFootball FULL TIME: Burnley 1-1 Blackburn Rovers 🏁
10-player Blackburn Rovers continue their unbeaten start to the 2024/25 Championship season and share the derby spoils!
10-man Blackburn. I can understand Sky dropping the "third man" name for their analyst position on the cricket (although, I don't think there's any reason not still call that position third man in women's cricket, but I digress), but there should be absolutely no reason not continue with the language we've always used for men's sports.
"Player of the game" is an objectively worse title than "man of the match" in men's sport, too.
Do they actually call it 'Player of the game'? F***s sakes. It's a single sex game - can they not just say 'Woman of the match' in the womens' game?
Definitely in cricket:
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
Er... they've surely just changed the template, and that gets populated with the historical data for old 'scorecards'?
It would have been trivial for them to not rewrite history, so it seems likely the change is intentional.
I doubt that's how Cricinfo populates the scoreboards: there won't be static HTML, there will likely be a Javascript scoreboard widget that pulls the information from a database. So if they make a change, it will backpopulate old games.
Indeed, that was my point. You've just put it much better.
I'm sure this is correct yet it is genuinely now producing wrong answers. Hundreds of players are now being awarded something they weren't awarded and denied something they were. Stokes wasn't POTM in 2019, he was MOTM. They would be horrified to get the numbers wrong, yet this is also wrong. And yes, I think it a great example of woke.
Its not a wrong answer.
Things get translated all the freaking time. I doubt in a Pakistan v India test its phrased as Man of the Match, yet that's still how you'd have wanted that showing as a few years ago when reading in English.
Nothing wrong with translating words and if the phrasing has changed but its the same thing, then saying that Stokes was player of the match is correct not incorrect if that's what its now called and its been translated into modern English.
Modern English? It was not 1542 for fucks sake, it was 2019. He was man of the match. It will say that in the trophy.
Its not 2019 anymore, its 2024.
If you're OK with translations, then what's the problem here?
The problem is solving something that isn't a problem. Men playing men's cricket were awarded many of the match since time immemorial. That is a fact. Your 'just a translation' is nothing of the sort. It doesn't need to be done. I have no beef with it being player of the match in the next test, if that's what people want. But don't rewrite history.
I don't think it's a deliberate rewriting of history based on a woke commandment. I think it was simply the case that changing one line of code was a hell of a lot easier than changing the database schema, backfilling the database (being careful to distinguish between men and womens matches) and changing the template so that it now pulled in a field from the database. (Plus, of course, adding a new field to the match creation screen, to choose what the correct name for the Man of the Match or equivalent is.)
Not usually up for banning things as a first option, but a ban on larger vehicles seems more than justified to me.
Sorry this means you'll never get your Cybertruck.
I was never getting a Musk vehicle.
Let's face it, Elon Musk is a lab accident away from being a Batman villain
He's one Shuttle away from being Hugo Drax.
The Cybertruck is basically banned from Europe, including the UK, because it is inherently so effing dangerous. Especially around eg external soft impact zones to stop it killing people when idiots who buy one pretend they are the A Team and hit a pedestrian.
If Elon does himself in with one, I'll nominate him for a Darwin Award.
I think it is more likely that Michael Stone is innocent than Lucy Letby. But he is not a photogenic young female.
I haven’t seen enough evidence to prove that Lucy Letby is innocent. I think there’s enough evidence to commission an enquiry about corporate neglect in the Countess of Chester hospital.
Of course, the legal system doesn't require proof that she's innocent - just a reasonable doubt.
There isn't reasonable doubt. She was the only one on the ward when all the deaths occurred, she insisted relatives absent themselves on several occassions very near when they passed away, most died from air being administered, and she wrote a harrowing self-confession about it all.
She's mentally ill/psychopathic, and it can happen to attractive young women too.
The corporate neglect is definitely a thing too because the Trust decided to slap about any doctors who raised concerns, rather than investigate.
Not ALL the deaths on the ward though. There were others that didn’t make it onto the incriminating chart. There are serious statistical issues around the slam dunk of ‘she was the only one present for all the deaths’, not least that those deaths are a cherry pick of ALL deaths on the ward.
It is just conceivable that this bit of hand waving captures the beginnings of a ground of appeal. If (big if) the case was in fact presented on a false statistical basis, if in fact other babies died in systemically and evidentially suspicious circumstances when Letby was not present, and if in fact she was NOT the only one present at all relevant deaths.
Very ill babies die in hospitals. Most are not murdered. If that is what this bit of data amounts to, it is not of real forensic interest. You also have to account for the defence not calling expert evidence themselves and not making it a ground of appeal.
The accumulated hand waving suggests that the entire defence and expert community was as thick as planks and couldn't see stuff obvious to keyboard warriors. Always possible if unlikely. But I don't see evidence for it yet. Keep an open mind.
I have an open mind. You are being a bit harsh referring to hand waving when we are just discussing on PB. I'm not going to write a 5000 word essay with appropriate references. There is stuff out there by statisticians about why the slam dunk chart may not be all that. Worth seeking out, if you are interested in why some think the case is not watertight.
I think that the Americans are starting to take this seriously is quite important. They are the trend setter when it comes to vehicles.
That's it's a concern over other car occupants that is driving this, rather than increased fatalities for pedestrians and cyclists, is very American too.
I'm quite interested to hear that from your good self; perhaps I have taken the wrong emphasis !
My view of Usonians is that on issues around vehicles and road safety they are the lobotomised, knuckle-dragging cavemen of the Western World, not the trend setters. One of the best decisions all the other countries, except possibly Australia / Canada etc, have made,has been to ignore them as far as possible.
There's a reason why they export so few motor vehicles to the civilised world, except where their culture has been imposed - and they have a $100bn deficit on the category in trade figures.
Even their more open-minded USA based traffic engineers wanting to improve road safety (eg Road Guy Rob on Youtube), have not yet got to grips with the very basic idea that the way to make roads safer is to work with Systems Safety across modes, not individual behaviour. The overwhelming theme around pedestrians for example is "how can they keep themselves safe", which is antediluvian - it even defines the academic research which gets done.
You know what: I might be wrong.
I just assumed that the proliferation of pick up trucks in urban areas was an American influence coming to the UK, along with the general increased size of cars (look at the size of the new Defender). Perhaps we have a self-made, but relatively minor, problem.
I have previously tried to do a similar analysis as that in the Economist article but STATS19 wasn't easy to play with.
I think it is more likely that Michael Stone is innocent than Lucy Letby. But he is not a photogenic young female.
I haven’t seen enough evidence to prove that Lucy Letby is innocent. I think there’s enough evidence to commission an enquiry about corporate neglect in the Countess of Chester hospital.
Of course, the legal system doesn't require proof that she's innocent - just a reasonable doubt.
There isn't reasonable doubt. She was the only one on the ward when all the deaths occurred, she insisted relatives absent themselves on several occassions very near when they passed away, most died from air being administered, and she wrote a harrowing self-confession about it all.
She's mentally ill/psychopathic, and it can happen to attractive young women too.
The corporate neglect is definitely a thing too because the Trust decided to slap about any doctors who raised concerns, rather than investigate.
Not ALL the deaths on the ward though. There were others that didn’t make it onto the incriminating chart. There are serious statistical issues around the slam dunk of ‘she was the only one present for all the deaths’, not least that those deaths are a cherry pick of ALL deaths on the ward.
wasnt it that these weren't the sickest babies (who might well die from severity of illness or even medical negligence) but rather babies that had got though the worst and expected to continue to recover, hence unexpected rather than expected deaths?
A baby dying despite treatment from major sepsis is a different thing to a baby who has been fine for days suddenly and inexplicably collapsing and dying.
But there must have been a cut off applied. The point remains that there was a decision made about which cases to look at.
This article covers the timeline briefly. As you can see in each case there was more evidence than Letby simply being on duty on the unit at the same time:
In particular it is worth noting that in the babies that died of insulin overdose both had very low c-peptide levels indicating external rather than endogenous insulin was the cause, facts accepted by Letby and the defence, though she denied doing it.
(insulin produced in the pancreas is produced in an inactive form which is converted into the active form by removing the c-peptide. Hence both are produced in equal molar quantities, though as they have different half lives and metabolism the ratio is not usually equal and recording of sample timing etc is crucial in interpretation, an issue for a Chemical Pathologist to interpret)
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It sounds vile yet on occasion cheese with fish is yum. It can also work on a classic fish pie, for instance
Also, pasta with cream is not nice, IMO.
Madonna and The Rolling Stones, I do not regret either, I suspect I will regret paying that much for Oasis, at least I will get a weekend break in London out of it.
As to the second trial, both prosecution and defence are allowed in a second trial to introduce fresh evidence. Its relevance and admissibility can be challenged and adjudicated by the judge, but that is always the case.
The Economist just published a deeply-researched story about car bloat, and it's very, very damning:
"For every life that the heaviest 1% of SUVs and trucks save, there are more than a dozen lives lost in other vehicles."
https://x.com/DavidZipper/status/1830265077544718836/photo/1
Sorry this means you'll never get your Cybertruck.
What's crazy is people who think British vehicles are anything like American ones, or try to use American statistics and claim they have a relevance in this country.
There's a reason pedestrian fatalities have been collapsing in this country, while rising in the States.
That's it's a concern over other car occupants that is driving this, rather than increased fatalities for pedestrians and cyclists, is very American too.
Let's face it, Elon Musk is a lab accident away from being a Batman villain
https://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/01/entertainment/feat-bruce-jenner-car-accident-lawsuit/index.html
Generally it’s bad news to combine two stand out flavours but sometimes it simply works
Thinking about it, I wonder if there is an underlying rule about strong sweet/savoury working well with umami
There is however a serious question about whether there are serious questions raised about the evidence.
If there are it will be possible to encapsulate in short paragraphs of plain English exactly what the reasons or grounds are for reviewing bits of evidence and how exactly additional evidence tends to disclose reasonable doubt. This is quite different from generalised hand waving, of which there has been a lot.
I keep an open mind but have seen nothing yet of any use.
Laughably, Cricinfo has gone back and retrospectively changed the title in previous scorecards too.
And juries struggle with that; I'm reminded of the cot death case from decades ago. Statistically, there's going to be one person every five years or so who has two kids die of cot deaths; that's the nature of random chance.
In this case, though, it wasn't just about the statistics, it was also about her diary, notes, and behaviour.
I don't know if she's guilty; I wasn't in the courtroom, and I worry about juries not properly understanding statistics. In other words, if this was a case of "experts" proclaiming her guilty, then I think she would have a much stronger case.
But this isn't just about statistics, there was other evidence too.
I have
“Luxushotelzimmerabendsruhefliegenstörung”
AKA
The German compound noun for “the sense of just settling in for the night into a lovely hotel room only to realise there’s a massive black fly in here too”
Works surprisingly well.
Not with smoked salmon, though.
I went into the chip shop today at teatime, and the first thing he said when I walked through the door, over the head of the queue, was "Pineapple Fritter?" - so either I'm typecast (it's only the third one I've had in over a month) or wheeling a Brompton into his shop is distinctive.
My mum used worry if I went out with wet hair in case I got a cold. She had no problem with me capsizing a boat though
And a Mornay sauce contains Parmesan, so the French disagree with the Italians on the matter.
(1) Do this 10 second change to the template, so that it's accurate going forward
(2) Leave it, so it's not correct, and also is probably wrong for women's cricket
(3) Create a new database field, showing the correct title for each specfic game. Write some code to correctly backfill it. Then write some more Javascript to pull in the right title.
Now, they should have done (3). But it's a bunch more work than (1).
Never attribute to malice that which might otherwise be explained by incompetence.
The robots are victorious, and so they receive the reward. The story ends as the humans watch the robots ascending into heaven.
I don’t make it with cream myself because the drier “traditional” recipe is nicest, but the outrage at messing with dishes like this is completely confected.
One other note. Babies died in the hospial in the relevant period but where Letby was not charged and SFAICS not involved. This is thought to be evidence of something relevant. It isn't.
After various complaints we were shown it from about 50ft instead.
And to think, some poor f**ker's liberty depended on it.
Must have been the best part of an afternoon futzing about with a £20 dvd player and dragging an old telly about on a stool. I've no idea how much that cost in judge/lawyer/hangers-on/jury-members time, but more than £20 I'm sure.
(Which is probably true in general, come to think of it.)
I see a surprising amount of conspiraloon WEF/5G/Vaxxer stuff on motorist groups who campaign against LTNs and 15 Minute Cities for example, with obsessions about how we are all going to be locked inside them like The Prisoner, motoring Youtube channels, and from some on fora around Reform UK (which I keep an eye on because Agent Anderson is my MP).
Though TBF it's mainly followers not principals.
It's the same types who have obsessive themes about Two Tier Kier and a new authoritarianism and so on, and 'look at all those people who went to prison for posting on Facebook whilst those Muslims who beat up the policeman at Manchester Airport have not been charged" - without even the faintest possibility of realising that the first lot are those who plead guilty so need no trial.
One of the strangest is a local Youtuber from Sheffield called Tim Wells who does interesting little videos wandering about localities in the area, with his personal memories, but he's completely obsessed with how cycle lanes will destroy the world at the behest of I know not who. Questioning him in his comments he seems to have gone head first down the rabbithole David Icke style on that particular thing.
https://www.youtube.com/@timawells/videos
We've been going in opposite directions to them for decades and our stats reflect the choices British drivers make, not American ones, as a result.
It's a great - but also incredibly depressing - listen.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Denominazione-origine-inventata-marketing-prodotti-ebook/dp/B078P93WFF/
FT interview with the author:
https://archive.is/MtRm3
So I hope there's more to it than just that, or else we're back to just the statistical issue, which is concerning.
From that interview. Stirring the pot!
A baby dying despite treatment from major sepsis is a different thing to a baby who has been fine for days suddenly and inexplicably collapsing and dying.
And yes, I think it a great example of woke.
You need powdered eggs and American bacon for an authentic carbonara.
Interesting article if you can get past the paywall. The author's thesis is almost all Italian traditional dishes were invented after the Second World War when people shook off centuries of poverty and could afford a diet that didn't just consist of bread, root vegetables and dried beans.
https://www.ft.com/content/6ac009d5-dbfd-4a86-839e-28bb44b2b64c
This is one of those things that will absorb a huge amount of time and energy to argue with those who are convinced otherwise, who will never change their minds.
My view of Usonians is that on issues around vehicles and road safety they are the lobotomised, knuckle-dragging cavemen of the Western World, not the trend setters. One of the best decisions all the other countries, except possibly Australia / Canada etc, have made,has been to ignore them as far as possible.
There's a reason why they export so few motor vehicles to the civilised world, except where their culture has been imposed - and they have a $100bn deficit on the category in trade figures.
Even their more open-minded USA based traffic engineers wanting to improve road safety (eg Road Guy Rob on Youtube), have not yet got to grips with the very basic idea that the way to make roads safer is to work with Systems Safety across modes, not individual behaviour. The overwhelming theme around pedestrians for example is "how can they keep themselves safe", which is antediluvian - it even defines the academic research which gets done.
Things get translated all the freaking time. I doubt in a Pakistan v India test its phrased as Man of the Match, yet that's still how you'd have wanted that showing as a few years ago when reading in English.
Nothing wrong with translating words and if the phrasing has changed but its the same thing, then saying that Stokes was player of the match is correct not incorrect if that's what its now called and its been translated into modern English.
I do not know if Letby is guilty or innocent, but I do think she was let down by her defence team, and the statistics used against her MAY be flawed, as has been suggested by better statisticians than me.
If you're OK with translations, then what's the problem here?
That gets you a front motor wheel, drive sensor, and battery with ~20 miles range for under £500. Various bit and pieces - second battery, dashboard / control unit - can be added. I've just ordered one for the second Brompton.
To get that you probably need to be in their email list already. They have a system where you can get it *now* full price, or wait 1-2 months and get it 40% off with the next "batch". This lets them manage their production. Currently they have an extra discount for delivery in October.
DYOR.
But juries are convinced - normally - by interweaving patterns of evidence. In this case, there are the confessions in her diary (which are perhaps explainable on their own), to which you need to add the behaviour she exhibited around parents, shooing them away from their babies ahead of their untimely demise, you have her answers when being questioned by the police, and you have the statistical evidence.
Each piece on their own is clearly insufficient, the question is whether together they are enough to dispel reasonable doubt.
And I don't know the answer to that. I do know that juries are hopelessly naive with regard to statistics; but I also know that this is not a case which relies solely on them.
Why is Letby guilty? Because she was the only person on duty when all the murdered babies died. How do you know those babies were murdered, instead of dying of natural causes? Because Letby was on duty when they died.
A lot of statistics depends on the framing, and in this case that's why I have doubts. If a few different babies had their deaths identified as suspicious, and others not, who else might have been implicated instead?
Very ill babies die in hospitals. Most are not murdered. If that is what this bit of data amounts to, it is not of real forensic interest. You also have to account for the defence not calling expert evidence themselves and not making it a ground of appeal.
The accumulated hand waving suggests that the entire defence and expert community was as thick as planks and couldn't see stuff obvious to keyboard warriors. Always possible if unlikely. But I don't see evidence for it yet. Keep an open mind.
I think the practicalities of enforcement are a matter of fact and degree. Say 100 copies of the New Yorker will not perhaps be deemed enough to undermine the objectivity of the potential Jury, but if they have a UK footprint they could be called into the Court.
Even now, I don't think it's much different from the Spycatcher case - and it is fairly common for material to be published abroad when there is an injunction on publication within the UK - there may even be English / Scottish legal differences which has been a thing before.
If player of the match is what its called today, and if it is the same prize, then that is what it is. That's perfectly legitimate continuity, things can be renamed and the renaming doesn't just affect things going forwards as it remains continuous.
Just as if Sri Lanka awarded a Man of the Match award in Sinhala rather than English you can use the English phrase, or someone there could read it in Sinhala rather than English.
If Elon does himself in with one, I'll nominate him for a Darwin Award.
I just assumed that the proliferation of pick up trucks in urban areas was an American influence coming to the UK, along with the general increased size of cars (look at the size of the new Defender). Perhaps we have a self-made, but relatively minor, problem.
I have previously tried to do a similar analysis as that in the Economist article but STATS19 wasn't easy to play with.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2023/aug/18/lucy-letby-timeline-attacks-babies-when-alarm-raised
In particular it is worth noting that in the babies that died of insulin overdose both had very low c-peptide levels indicating external rather than endogenous insulin was the cause, facts accepted by Letby and the defence, though she denied doing it.
(insulin produced in the pancreas is produced in an inactive form which is converted into the active form by removing the c-peptide. Hence both are produced in equal molar quantities, though as they have different half lives and metabolism the ratio is not usually equal and recording of sample timing etc is crucial in interpretation, an issue for a Chemical Pathologist to interpret)