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The YouGov poll has had an impact on punters – politicalbetting.com

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  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707

    Pagan2 said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Badenoch can't do it.

    Can't do what? Make the odd witty comment at PMQs that the small percentage who really pay attention to politics might appreciate? Devise policies that will never be implemented? Watch helplessly as an overwhelming majority means that the government can do whatever it likes however irrational or self harming and all your work and smart comments are to no avail?

    Worrying about who the next Tory leader is shows that you haven't come to terms with what happened last month. They are irrelevant and will be for 10 years now. That is the price of complete failure.
    Nonsense. Snap out of it man, and grow up.

    You're facing a socialist government, and it's time to rally around and challenge it.
    Good grief Casino, how old are you?

    This is nothing like a socialist government. The only time this country has got close to a socialist government was 1945-1950 and even that was fairly mild.

    Starmer's is likely to be very much like Blair2, possibly a bit better, possibly not. But in any event, it will be a shedload better than the mismanagement we have had for the past 14 years.
    At the moment Starmer's government is far more like Brown2 than Blair2
    Starmer is a disaster.
    That comment may become true, but to state it as fact five weeks after the election is just ridiculous.
    There's plenty of evidence already that he's an absolute disaster.
    Wait until they do over the pensions in the Autumn Budget...

    And that will bite hard on not just current pensioners.
    When they repeatedly said they specifically won't raise the rate of income tax, NI or VAT it was clear to anyone who can actually listen that they were going to increase other taxes. Some reform is long overdue in pensions, lets see what they do.

    Personally I find it ludicrous that the government foregoes tax to allow people to build up multi million pound retirement pots, plus £20k per year ISAs. Subsidising savings up to around 500k per person makes a lot of sense, but beyond that it is just giving back tax to the wealthy and hiding that we are doing it by making the system very complex.
    The 'pension reform' you crave will apply to people currently in work, who will not be able to save as efficiently as existing retirees were encouraged to. They will be the losers. I genuinely want the Zedders to enjoy the same benefits as me but they seem determined to throw them away in an envious fit of pique.
    Give over.

    Our generation has had the rug pulled away every step of the way. Free university got replaced with tuition fees as it was supposedly "unaffordable" to continue with free university with so many more going than in the past.

    Well there's so many more pensioners than in the past so in the exact same way it is completely unaffordable to keep paying triple locked pensions.

    Getting pensions on an affordable footing is better to ensuring they're still there in the future than burning down the house now by pissing away every penny available then finding there's no money left.
    Empty rhetoric.
    Not remotely empty.

    Give me one good reason that free tuition
    was taken away because there were more people and it was no longer affordable that doesn't equally apply to pensioners benefits.

    There's no money left, getting spending on a sustainable footing is the best way to ensure the spending can be available in the future too.
    Because impoverished pensioners will require additional other services.

    Government should actually look at what it does in a critical light and determine if it is value added. For example it’s not clear to me that all the current students benefit from their university courses and not clear that society benefits from funding them.

    But we have this mindset that more people having tertiary education is a good thing in and of itself . That’s just not true. More people having -*value added* tertiary education is a good thing
    I told my son uni was a bad idea when he asked...he went...he got an msc and then said he never wants to work in a lab ever again and says he wished he had taken my advice and learned a trade....I didn't advise him out of snobbery....just knew he would be happier using his hands and make a lot more money that he would with his degree
    I’m not sure that either of you are quite right.

    Unfortunately many employers use tertiary education as a screening device for “graduate level” jobs (even though the jobs may not require graduate skills). So having an MSc gives your son options that he didn’t have before even if he doesn’t want to work in a lab.

    But equally there are people who are not suited for an academic path - for whom a trade would be better. There is certainly useful training that can be done - improving the NVQ model perhaps - but not necessarily 3 years and £40k of student debt…
    Having had 65+ MSc's apply for a junior PHP developer role this week - none of whom I could distinguish from another - they might as well have spent 1/4 the money getting through an undistinguished bootcamp programme.

    If anything, I'm giving a +1 to people who paid their way through a bootcamp to get out of whatever hellhole job they were in before.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,423
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    A weird one for the PB lawyers, that I don't really understand. I normally know this area of law reasonably.

    What is "Causing Common Danger" under the 1835 Highways Act? And what elements does this require to be proven? I can't even find a reference.

    This is the case: https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/crime/sunderland-cyclist-punished-in-court-using-200-year-old-law-4747188

    Someone riding a cycle without working lights on the pavement of Villette Road, Sunderland, at 2:30am on a weekday morning, went past police responding to an incident. He was stopped and they had words. They then let him go on his way after helping him back onto his cycle (says his solicitor).

    Charges were laid 2 1/2 weeks later, and he was brought to Magistrates Court.

    He was charged with causing common danger by riding a pedal cycle in the hours of darkness with no illumination, contrary to the 1835 Highway Act.
    He was also taken to task under the same act for riding a pedal cycle on a footpath set aside for pedestrians on Tuesday, April 30.
    His third and final offence – using a pedal cycle without front and rear lights on a road at night – was prosecuted under the 1988 Road Traffic Offenders Act.


    He pled guilty to all three offences, and was given a condition discharge and no fine.

    On this one, I'm thinking WTF, how is this in the Public Interest, and what did such a prosecution cost?

    Villette Road, Sunderland:
    https://www.google.com/maps/@54.895231,-1.371876,3a,75y,243.59h,81.49t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sLaG2vEyd6w28_peyrTI6UA!2e0!5s20240501T000000!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDgyMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==

    Astonishing - this cyclist managed to find the only police officer and magistrate's court in the country with any spare capacity. Sunderland must be the most peaceful and serene town in England - indeed their enthusiasm for 20mph limits suggests such a utopia.

    It basically sounds like the police have taken a real dislike to this guy (see previous convictions) and have started to pick on him. Otoh, he might be an ordinary bloke and every single one of those prior convictions is police persecution. I sense a Netflix documentary.

    All the kids around here cycle to school on the pavement, I presume on parental advice. Technically illegal, but they are below the age of criminal responsibility so thankfully won't be sent off to the Sunderland gulag.
    He was cycling on the pavement without any lights, if a car driver had been driving on the pavement without any lights the police would have thrown the book at them!
    Thankfully the police in the UK can use their discretion when deciding when and how to enforce the law. That's why they focus so much time on violent crime even while burglaries go without an investigation, and why they pro-actively seek out and arrest drink drivers even while cyclists go through red lights.

    Indeed, many thousands of pavement cyclists will have got away with their heinous crimes while the police were locking up far-right rioters for trying to burn asylum seekers to death.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707
    edited August 24

    I don't wish to be controversial, but I need some persuading that a wet day in late August, around seven weeks since a new government was elected at the height of summer, is a suitable date to provide us with sufficient evidence to reach a judgment on the performance of that government. They've had one major crisis, the riots, and seemed to handle that pretty well. Otherwise, it's just wait and see, surely?

    I can tell by your reasonable demeanour that you have had a sensible amount of venison tonight.

    Spare a thought for those somewhat drunk, angry, vegan-face-off-ing venison lovers who are going without. They need a manger for the night.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,237
    edited August 24
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    A weird one for the PB lawyers, that I don't really understand. I normally know this area of law reasonably.

    What is "Causing Common Danger" under the 1835 Highways Act? And what elements does this require to be proven? I can't even find a reference.

    This is the case: https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/crime/sunderland-cyclist-punished-in-court-using-200-year-old-law-4747188

    Someone riding a cycle without working lights on the pavement of Villette Road, Sunderland, at 2:30am on a weekday morning, went past police responding to an incident. He was stopped and they had words. They then let him go on his way after helping him back onto his cycle (says his solicitor).

    Charges were laid 2 1/2 weeks later, and he was brought to Magistrates Court.

    He was charged with causing common danger by riding a pedal cycle in the hours of darkness with no illumination, contrary to the 1835 Highway Act.
    He was also taken to task under the same act for riding a pedal cycle on a footpath set aside for pedestrians on Tuesday, April 30.
    His third and final offence – using a pedal cycle without front and rear lights on a road at night – was prosecuted under the 1988 Road Traffic Offenders Act.


    He pled guilty to all three offences, and was given a condition discharge and no fine.

    On this one, I'm thinking WTF, how is this in the Public Interest, and what did such a prosecution cost?

    Villette Road, Sunderland:
    https://www.google.com/maps/@54.895231,-1.371876,3a,75y,243.59h,81.49t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sLaG2vEyd6w28_peyrTI6UA!2e0!5s20240501T000000!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDgyMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==

    Astonishing - this cyclist managed to find the only police officer and magistrate's court in the country with any spare capacity. Sunderland must be the most peaceful and serene town in England - indeed their enthusiasm for 20mph limits suggests such a utopia.

    It basically sounds like the police have taken a real dislike to this guy (see previous convictions) and have started to pick on him. Otoh, he might be an ordinary bloke and every single one of those prior convictions is police persecution. I sense a Netflix documentary.

    All the kids around here cycle to school on the pavement, I presume on parental advice. Technically illegal, but they are below the age of criminal responsibility so thankfully won't be sent off to the Sunderland gulag.
    He was cycling on the pavement without any lights, if a car driver had been driving on the pavement without any lights the police would have thrown the book at them!
    Thankfully the police in the UK can use their discretion when deciding when and how to enforce the law. That's why they focus so much time on violent crime even while burglaries go without an investigation, and why they pro-actively seek out and arrest drink drivers even while cyclists go through red lights.

    Indeed, many thousands of pavement cyclists will have got away with their heinous crimes while the police were locking up far-right rioters for trying to burn asylum seekers to death.
    Well it is about time the police started to spend more time on burglers and pavement cyclists without lights on and cyclists thinking red lights don't apply to them, so damn good thing this prosecution went ahead
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,237
    edited August 24

    I don't wish to be controversial, but I need some persuading that a wet day in late August, around seven weeks since a new government was elected at the height of summer, is a suitable date to provide us with sufficient evidence to reach a judgment on the performance of that government. They've had one major crisis, the riots, and seemed to handle that pretty well. Otherwise, it's just wait and see, surely?

    Perhaps but this is already the most unpopular newly elected UK government since the 1970s
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,154
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    A weird one for the PB lawyers, that I don't really understand. I normally know this area of law reasonably.

    What is "Causing Common Danger" under the 1835 Highways Act? And what elements does this require to be proven? I can't even find a reference.

    This is the case: https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/crime/sunderland-cyclist-punished-in-court-using-200-year-old-law-4747188

    Someone riding a cycle without working lights on the pavement of Villette Road, Sunderland, at 2:30am on a weekday morning, went past police responding to an incident. He was stopped and they had words. They then let him go on his way after helping him back onto his cycle (says his solicitor).

    Charges were laid 2 1/2 weeks later, and he was brought to Magistrates Court.

    He was charged with causing common danger by riding a pedal cycle in the hours of darkness with no illumination, contrary to the 1835 Highway Act.
    He was also taken to task under the same act for riding a pedal cycle on a footpath set aside for pedestrians on Tuesday, April 30.
    His third and final offence – using a pedal cycle without front and rear lights on a road at night – was prosecuted under the 1988 Road Traffic Offenders Act.


    He pled guilty to all three offences, and was given a condition discharge and no fine.

    On this one, I'm thinking WTF, how is this in the Public Interest, and what did such a prosecution cost?

    Villette Road, Sunderland:
    https://www.google.com/maps/@54.895231,-1.371876,3a,75y,243.59h,81.49t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sLaG2vEyd6w28_peyrTI6UA!2e0!5s20240501T000000!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDgyMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==

    Astonishing - this cyclist managed to find the only police officer and magistrate's court in the country with any spare capacity. Sunderland must be the most peaceful and serene town in England - indeed their enthusiasm for 20mph limits suggests such a utopia.

    It basically sounds like the police have taken a real dislike to this guy (see previous convictions) and have started to pick on him. Otoh, he might be an ordinary bloke and every single one of those prior convictions is police persecution. I sense a Netflix documentary.

    All the kids around here cycle to school on the pavement, I presume on parental advice. Technically illegal, but they are below the age of criminal responsibility so thankfully won't be sent off to the Sunderland gulag.
    He was cycling on the pavement without any lights, if a car driver had been driving on the pavement without any lights the police would have thrown the book at them!
    Thankfully the police in the UK can use their discretion when deciding when and how to enforce the law. That's why they focus so much time on violent crime even while burglaries go without an investigation, and why they pro-actively seek out and arrest drink drivers even while cyclists go through red lights.

    Indeed, many thousands of pavement cyclists will have got away with their heinous crimes while the police were locking up far-right rioters for trying to burn asylum seekers to death.
    Burglaries ought to be one of the top priorities for the police imo.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,237
    Andy_JS said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    A weird one for the PB lawyers, that I don't really understand. I normally know this area of law reasonably.

    What is "Causing Common Danger" under the 1835 Highways Act? And what elements does this require to be proven? I can't even find a reference.

    This is the case: https://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/crime/sunderland-cyclist-punished-in-court-using-200-year-old-law-4747188

    Someone riding a cycle without working lights on the pavement of Villette Road, Sunderland, at 2:30am on a weekday morning, went past police responding to an incident. He was stopped and they had words. They then let him go on his way after helping him back onto his cycle (says his solicitor).

    Charges were laid 2 1/2 weeks later, and he was brought to Magistrates Court.

    He was charged with causing common danger by riding a pedal cycle in the hours of darkness with no illumination, contrary to the 1835 Highway Act.
    He was also taken to task under the same act for riding a pedal cycle on a footpath set aside for pedestrians on Tuesday, April 30.
    His third and final offence – using a pedal cycle without front and rear lights on a road at night – was prosecuted under the 1988 Road Traffic Offenders Act.


    He pled guilty to all three offences, and was given a condition discharge and no fine.

    On this one, I'm thinking WTF, how is this in the Public Interest, and what did such a prosecution cost?

    Villette Road, Sunderland:
    https://www.google.com/maps/@54.895231,-1.371876,3a,75y,243.59h,81.49t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sLaG2vEyd6w28_peyrTI6UA!2e0!5s20240501T000000!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDgyMS4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==

    Astonishing - this cyclist managed to find the only police officer and magistrate's court in the country with any spare capacity. Sunderland must be the most peaceful and serene town in England - indeed their enthusiasm for 20mph limits suggests such a utopia.

    It basically sounds like the police have taken a real dislike to this guy (see previous convictions) and have started to pick on him. Otoh, he might be an ordinary bloke and every single one of those prior convictions is police persecution. I sense a Netflix documentary.

    All the kids around here cycle to school on the pavement, I presume on parental advice. Technically illegal, but they are below the age of criminal responsibility so thankfully won't be sent off to the Sunderland gulag.
    He was cycling on the pavement without any lights, if a car driver had been driving on the pavement without any lights the police would have thrown the book at them!
    Thankfully the police in the UK can use their discretion when deciding when and how to enforce the law. That's why they focus so much time on violent crime even while burglaries go without an investigation, and why they pro-actively seek out and arrest drink drivers even while cyclists go through red lights.

    Indeed, many thousands of pavement cyclists will have got away with their heinous crimes while the police were locking up far-right rioters for trying to burn asylum seekers to death.
    Burglaries ought to be one of the top priorities for the police imo.
    At least some progress on that now

    https://news.npcc.police.uk/releases/police-now-attending-scene-of-every-home-burglary
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Pagan2 said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Badenoch can't do it.

    Can't do what? Make the odd witty comment at PMQs that the small percentage who really pay attention to politics might appreciate? Devise policies that will never be implemented? Watch helplessly as an overwhelming majority means that the government can do whatever it likes however irrational or self harming and all your work and smart comments are to no avail?

    Worrying about who the next Tory leader is shows that you haven't come to terms with what happened last month. They are irrelevant and will be for 10 years now. That is the price of complete failure.
    Nonsense. Snap out of it man, and grow up.

    You're facing a socialist government, and it's time to rally around and challenge it.
    Good grief Casino, how old are you?

    This is nothing like a socialist government. The only time this country has got close to a socialist government was 1945-1950 and even that was fairly mild.

    Starmer's is likely to be very much like Blair2, possibly a bit better, possibly not. But in any event, it will be a shedload better than the mismanagement we have had for the past 14 years.
    At the moment Starmer's government is far more like Brown2 than Blair2
    Starmer is a disaster.
    That comment may become true, but to state it as fact five weeks after the election is just ridiculous.
    There's plenty of evidence already that he's an absolute disaster.
    Wait until they do over the pensions in the Autumn Budget...

    And that will bite hard on not just current pensioners.
    When they repeatedly said they specifically won't raise the rate of income tax, NI or VAT it was clear to anyone who can actually listen that they were going to increase other taxes. Some reform is long overdue in pensions, lets see what they do.

    Personally I find it ludicrous that the government foregoes tax to allow people to build up multi million pound retirement pots, plus £20k per year ISAs. Subsidising savings up to around 500k per person makes a lot of sense, but beyond that it is just giving back tax to the wealthy and hiding that we are doing it by making the system very complex.
    The 'pension reform' you crave will apply to people currently in work, who will not be able to save as efficiently as existing retirees were encouraged to. They will be the losers. I genuinely want the Zedders to enjoy the same benefits as me but they seem determined to throw them away in an envious fit of pique.
    Give over.

    Our generation has had the rug pulled away every step of the way. Free university got replaced with tuition fees as it was supposedly "unaffordable" to continue with free university with so many more going than in the past.

    Well there's so many more pensioners than in the past so in the exact same way it is completely unaffordable to keep paying triple locked pensions.

    Getting pensions on an affordable footing is better to ensuring they're still there in the future than burning down the house now by pissing away every penny available then finding there's no money left.
    Empty rhetoric.
    Not remotely empty.

    Give me one good reason that free tuition
    was taken away because there were more people and it was no longer affordable that doesn't equally apply to pensioners benefits.

    There's no money left, getting spending on a sustainable footing is the best way to ensure the spending can be available in the future too.
    Because impoverished pensioners will require additional other services.

    Government should actually look at what it does in a critical light and determine if it is value added. For example it’s not clear to me that all the current students benefit from their university courses and not clear that society benefits from funding them.

    But we have this mindset that more people having tertiary education is a good thing in and of itself . That’s just not true. More people having -*value added* tertiary education is a good thing
    I told my son uni was a bad idea when he asked...he went...he got an msc and then said he never wants to work in a lab ever again and says he wished he had taken my advice and learned a trade....I didn't advise him out of snobbery....just knew he would be happier using his hands and make a lot more money that he would with his degree
    I’m not sure that either of you are quite right.

    Unfortunately many employers use tertiary education as a screening device for “graduate level” jobs (even though the jobs may not require graduate skills). So having an MSc gives your son options that he didn’t have before even if he doesn’t want to work in a lab.

    But equally there are people who are not suited for an academic path - for whom a trade would be better. There is certainly useful training that can be done - improving the NVQ model perhaps - but not necessarily 3 years and £40k of student debt…
    Bring back the polytechnics.

    One of the most stupid public policy decisions since the War.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ...

    Under Labour, things can only get better worse.

    So says...hang on, The Observer? That can't be right...

    https://news.sky.com/story/sundays-national-newspaper-front-pages-12427754?postid=8175107#liveblog-body

    "Things can only get worse, so says Starmer". I am sure the Observer are still onboard. It appears to be Starmer who has his doubts.

    Still, in those moments of uncertainty he can retrace the years post Referendum and reassure himself that he will have to f*** up royally to come close to that shower.

    Returning perfectly spherical yolks and albumen to their egg shells from the last Government's economic dog's full English breakfast will take some doing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,349

    ...

    Under Labour, things can only get better worse.

    So says...hang on, The Observer? That can't be right...

    https://news.sky.com/story/sundays-national-newspaper-front-pages-12427754?postid=8175107#liveblog-body

    "Things can only get worse, so says Starmer". I am sure the Observer are still onboard. It appears to be Starmer who has his doubts.

    Still, in those moments of uncertainty he can retrace the years post Referendum and reassure himself that he will have to f*** up royally to come close to that shower.

    Returning perfectly spherical yolks and albumen to their egg shells from the last Government's economic dog's full English breakfast will take some doing.
    It's Labour making the omelettes now though.

    You break it, you now own it.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,686

    I don't wish to be controversial, but I need some persuading that a wet day in late August, around seven weeks since a new government was elected at the height of summer, is a suitable date to provide us with sufficient evidence to reach a judgment on the performance of that government. They've had one major crisis, the riots, and seemed to handle that pretty well. Otherwise, it's just wait and see, surely?

    it's okay the pb tories are just all giddy after taking a big gulp of the joys of opposition bless
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    IanB2 said:

    I’m now in West Virginia, where the preponderance of Trump and GOP posters about the place suggests it won’t be a state to watch in November. It isn’t on the way to anywhere so you have to make an effort to come here, but it’s very scenic. We share our rented barn with goats, a pig, ducks and chickens, thankfully they’re all outside. The dog is enjoying a bit of happy freedom after seven days on the ship and two days in the car.

    Almost Heaven, West Virginia
    Blue Ridge Mountains, Shenandoah River
    Life is old there, older than the trees
    Younger than the mountains, growin' like a breeze..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,847
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    I’m now in West Virginia, where the preponderance of Trump and GOP posters about the place suggests it won’t be a state to watch in November. It isn’t on the way to anywhere so you have to make an effort to come here, but it’s very scenic. We share our rented barn with goats, a pig, ducks and chickens, thankfully they’re all outside. The dog is enjoying a bit of happy freedom after seven days on the ship and two days in the car.

    Almost Heaven, West Virginia
    Blue Ridge Mountains, Shenandoah River
    Life is old there, older than the trees
    Younger than the mountains, growin' like a breeze..
    I have listened to that song a million times and I've apparently gotten that second line wrong every single time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,154
    IanB2 said:

    I’m now in West Virginia, where the preponderance of Trump and GOP posters about the place suggests it won’t be a state to watch in November. It isn’t on the way to anywhere so you have to make an effort to come here, but it’s very scenic. We share our rented barn with goats, a pig, ducks and chickens, thankfully they’re all outside. The dog is enjoying a bit of happy freedom after seven days on the ship and two days in the car.

    It had the highest GOP share in 2016 and the second highest in 2020 after Wyoming.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Interesting bit of polling.

    https://www.fdu.edu/news/fdu-poll-finds-race-and-gender-push-harris-above-trump-nationally/
    … This survey experiment means that we can compare the voters who were primed to think about race or sex with those who were not, and because the assignment to these conditions is done at random, we can be confident that any differences between the groups are a result of the priming, and not other factors. The effects are enormous.

    Among voters who were not primed to think about the race or sex of the candidates, Harris and Trump are tied (47 to 48). When the list of issues mentions the sex of the candidates, Harris pulls ahead, 52 to 42. And when the race of the candidates is mentioned, Harris holds a 14-point lead, 53 to 39, a 15-point shift from the baseline condition.

    “When voters are thinking about race or sex, Trump’s support just plummets,” said Cassino. “All the time, we hear strategists and pundits saying that Democratic candidates shouldn’t talk about identity, but these results show that making race and sex salient to voters is bad for Trump and boosts Harris.”

    The movement in the race priming condition is largely due to changes in support among non-white voters. Fifty-five percent of non-white voters in the unprimed condition say that they’ll support Harris, with 39 percent supporting Trump. But in the race primed condition, Trump’s support among non-white voters drops by 10 points to 29 percent, while Harris’s support rises by 10, from 55 to 65 percent. All told, mentioning the race of the candidates moves Harris’s lead among non-white voters from 16 points (55 to 39) to 36 points (65 to 29).

    This size of the effect is supplemented by a shift away from Trump among white voters in the race primed condition. In the unprimed condition, Trump leads Harris among white voters by 11 points, 53 to 42. In the race primed condition, the two are tied, with Harris marginally ahead among white voters, 47 to 44...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited August 24
    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    I’m now in West Virginia, where the preponderance of Trump and GOP posters about the place suggests it won’t be a state to watch in November. It isn’t on the way to anywhere so you have to make an effort to come here, but it’s very scenic. We share our rented barn with goats, a pig, ducks and chickens, thankfully they’re all outside. The dog is enjoying a bit of happy freedom after seven days on the ship and two days in the car.

    It had the highest GOP share in 2016 and the second highest in 2020 after Wyoming.
    And men’s haircuts take longer to go out of fashion here than elsewhere, I’m thinking?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,847
    Andy_JS said:

    IanB2 said:

    I’m now in West Virginia, where the preponderance of Trump and GOP posters about the place suggests it won’t be a state to watch in November. It isn’t on the way to anywhere so you have to make an effort to come here, but it’s very scenic. We share our rented barn with goats, a pig, ducks and chickens, thankfully they’re all outside. The dog is enjoying a bit of happy freedom after seven days on the ship and two days in the car.

    It had the highest GOP share in 2016 and the second highest in 2020 after Wyoming.
    Frustrating though Democrats often found him, Manchin winning there seems practically a miracle given those numbers, and makes his independence (now formalised) very understandable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    April 2024

    “I’d even take Biden over Junior” - DJT
    https://x.com/AesPolitics1/status/1827135045846307270
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,847

    I don't wish to be controversial, but I need some persuading that a wet day in late August, around seven weeks since a new government was elected at the height of summer, is a suitable date to provide us with sufficient evidence to reach a judgment on the performance of that government.

    Never too early to call it.

    I must say many right wing pundits seem much happier right now. Not that those who lost faith in the Tories are instantly about to forgive them or anything, but you can practically feel the relief at being able to trash the Labour government instead.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,790
    Jas Athwal, Labour right stalwart & MP for Ilford South, owns *18* properties as a landlord.
    https://xcancel.com/AaronBastani/status/1827411585402306715#m
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,437
    edited August 24
    viewcode said:

    Jas Athwal, Labour right stalwart & MP for Ilford South, owns *18* properties as a landlord.
    https://xcancel.com/AaronBastani/status/1827411585402306715#m

    Does that beat Michael Meacher record?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,437
    German police just caught the terrorist who stabbed 3 people to death at a “diversity festival” last night. The 26-year-old Syrian asylum seeker and Islamist Issa al H. was still wearing clothes covered in blood when arrested.

    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1827464641615950065
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,154
    Cheery stuff.

    "British people will have to endure even worse economic and social ­pressures in the months to come as the Labour government takes “unpopular decisions” to rebuild the country from “rubble and ruin” left by the Tories, Keir Starmer will warn this week.

    With the prime minister under mounting pressure from within his own party to help people struggling with rising fuel payments and millions of families in poverty, Starmer will strike a defiant note against those demanding U-turns from his ministers, saying “tough choices” will have to be made before any recovery is possible.

    Starmer’s speech on Tuesday is being billed by Downing Street as “a direct message to the working people across Britain”."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/24/keir-starmer-warns-of-tough-times-ahead-to-fix-tory-ruins
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited August 24
    viewcode said:

    Jas Athwal, Labour right stalwart & MP for Ilford South, owns *18* properties as a landlord.
    https://xcancel.com/AaronBastani/status/1827411585402306715#m

    I recall the debate we had about housing on the council when we managed to establish mid-debate that councillors who were landlords had an interest to declare, and Athwal and more than half of his Labour councillor colleagues then had to do so. As well as a fair few of the Tories. We LibDems were landlord-free :)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    Pagan2 said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Badenoch can't do it.

    Can't do what? Make the odd witty comment at PMQs that the small percentage who really pay attention to politics might appreciate? Devise policies that will never be implemented? Watch helplessly as an overwhelming majority means that the government can do whatever it likes however irrational or self harming and all your work and smart comments are to no avail?

    Worrying about who the next Tory leader is shows that you haven't come to terms with what happened last month. They are irrelevant and will be for 10 years now. That is the price of complete failure.
    Nonsense. Snap out of it man, and grow up.

    You're facing a socialist government, and it's time to rally around and challenge it.
    Good grief Casino, how old are you?

    This is nothing like a socialist government. The only time this country has got close to a socialist government was 1945-1950 and even that was fairly mild.

    Starmer's is likely to be very much like Blair2, possibly a bit better, possibly not. But in any event, it will be a shedload better than the mismanagement we have had for the past 14 years.
    At the moment Starmer's government is far more like Brown2 than Blair2
    Starmer is a disaster.
    That comment may become true, but to state it as fact five weeks after the election is just ridiculous.
    There's plenty of evidence already that he's an absolute disaster.
    Wait until they do over the pensions in the Autumn Budget...

    And that will bite hard on not just current pensioners.
    When they repeatedly said they specifically won't raise the rate of income tax, NI or VAT it was clear to anyone who can actually listen that they were going to increase other taxes. Some reform is long overdue in pensions, lets see what they do.

    Personally I find it ludicrous that the government foregoes tax to allow people to build up multi million pound retirement pots, plus £20k per year ISAs. Subsidising savings up to around 500k per person makes a lot of sense, but beyond that it is just giving back tax to the wealthy and hiding that we are doing it by making the system very complex.
    The 'pension reform' you crave will apply to people currently in work, who will not be able to save as efficiently as existing retirees were encouraged to. They will be the losers. I genuinely want the Zedders to enjoy the same benefits as me but they seem determined to throw them away in an envious fit of pique.
    Give over.

    Our generation has had the rug pulled away every step of the way. Free university got replaced with tuition fees as it was supposedly "unaffordable" to continue with free university with so many more going than in the past.

    Well there's so many more pensioners than in the past so in the exact same way it is completely unaffordable to keep paying triple locked pensions.

    Getting pensions on an affordable footing is better to ensuring they're still there in the future than burning down the house now by pissing away every penny available then finding there's no money left.
    Empty rhetoric.
    Not remotely empty.

    Give me one good reason that free tuition
    was taken away because there were more people and it was no longer affordable that doesn't equally apply to pensioners benefits.

    There's no money left, getting spending on a sustainable footing is the best way to ensure the spending can be available in the future too.
    Because impoverished pensioners will require additional other services.

    Government should actually look at what it does in a critical light and determine if it is value added. For example it’s not clear to me that all the current students benefit from their university courses and not clear that society benefits from funding them.

    But we have this mindset that more people having tertiary education is a good thing in and of itself . That’s just not true. More people having -*value added* tertiary education is a good thing
    I told my son uni was a bad idea when he asked...he went...he got an msc and then said he never wants to work in a lab ever again and says he wished he had taken my advice and learned a trade....I didn't advise him out of snobbery....just knew he would be happier using his hands and make a lot more money that he would with his degree
    I’m not sure that either of you are quite right.

    Unfortunately many employers use tertiary education as a screening device for “graduate level” jobs (even though the jobs may not require graduate skills). So having
    an MSc gives your son options that he didn’t have before even if he doesn’t want to work in a lab.

    But equally there are people who are not suited for an academic path - for whom a trade would be better. There is certainly useful training that can be done - improving the NVQ model perhaps - but not necessarily 3 years and £40k of student debt…
    Bring back the polytechnics.

    One of the most stupid public policy decisions since the War.
    To be fair to Major, I think he was just reflecting the reality in that polys were seen as poor quality universities by the 90s (that was when I was choosing my uni). The failure of policy was earlier

    There is absolutely a role for tertiary technical schools but they need to be built from scratch.

    If I didn’t have to worry about voters I would close down half the unis and use the budget to create engineering/technical schools
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,154
    "The one advantage of an ageing world
    The chaos that was normal in the 1960s is rarer now
    JANAN GANESH"

    https://www.ft.com/content/35fe7db0-7c1c-4d47-8a0b-1f2ce72e5940
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,154
    "@FrankLuntz

    RFK Jr. says he will only withdraw his name from the ballot in 10 battleground states.

    He also claims he could still somehow become POTUS if the election ends in a 269-269 electoral tie."

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1827064991889117466
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,349
    Israel going in hard into southern Lebanon - 40+ aviation hits in the past hour. "Pre-emptive strikes" against a large Hezbollah formation heading to Israel.

    All flights into Tel Aviv suspended/diverted. Large-scale missile attacks expected.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,873
    Andy_JS said:

    "@FrankLuntz

    RFK Jr. says he will only withdraw his name from the ballot in 10 battleground states.

    He also claims he could still somehow become POTUS if the election ends in a 269-269 electoral tie."

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1827064991889117466

    Which is the 10th state ?

    Mn, IA, OH or Tx ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Andy_JS said:

    "@FrankLuntz

    RFK Jr. says he will only withdraw his name from the ballot in 10 battleground states.

    He also claims he could still somehow become POTUS if the election ends in a 269-269 electoral tie."

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1827064991889117466

    Absolute loon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Andy_JS said:

    "@FrankLuntz

    RFK Jr. says he will only withdraw his name from the ballot in 10 battleground states.

    He also claims he could still somehow become POTUS if the election ends in a 269-269 electoral tie."

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1827064991889117466

    AIUI the top three candidates *in the electoral college* go to the House if no candidate has a majority.

    So he would need a faithless voter - at least one, and at least one more than any other candidate- to qualify.

    If it’s a 50/50 dead heat, it would just be Harris and Trump.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Are we sure Donald Trump is teetotal?

    Trump posts AI photo of himself riding a lion

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-latest-news-live-harris-polls-b2601306.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: was surprised yesterday evening to see Hamilton received a penalty. I would love to know where the stewards thought he should have gone. Very rough, I think.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited August 25
    ydoethur said:

    Are we sure Donald Trump is teetotal?

    Trump posts AI photo of himself riding a lion

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-latest-news-live-harris-polls-b2601306.html

    This AI of him performing Shaggy's It Wasn't Me, with backing from VVP, eclipses that.
    https://x.com/CalltoActivism/status/1827394931209502940
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    We got our convention chaos, after all.
    I've no idea what they're fighting over.

    Former Michigan GOP chairwoman escorted out of party convention by police
    https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2024/08/24/ex-michigan-gop-chair-escorted-out-of-party-convention-by-police/74862303007/
    ...Karamo, a former secretary of state candidate and a favorite among the party's grassroots wing, was elected the state party's chairwoman in February 2023. Then, in January, a group of Michigan Republican state committee members, frustrated by her leadership style and struggles to raise money, voted to oust her, while another group voted to keep her.
    In February, a Kent County Circuit Court judge determined Karamo had been removed in accordance with party bylaws, and the judge legally recognized Pete Hoekstra, a former member of the U.S. House, as the new chairman.
    Hoekstra was booed by some of the hundreds of delegates in attendance as he attempted to address the convention Saturday morning...
  • Andy_JS said:

    Cheery stuff.

    "British people will have to endure even worse economic and social ­pressures in the months to come as the Labour government takes “unpopular decisions” to rebuild the country from “rubble and ruin” left by the Tories, Keir Starmer will warn this week.

    With the prime minister under mounting pressure from within his own party to help people struggling with rising fuel payments and millions of families in poverty, Starmer will strike a defiant note against those demanding U-turns from his ministers, saying “tough choices” will have to be made before any recovery is possible.

    Starmer’s speech on Tuesday is being billed by Downing Street as “a direct message to the working people across Britain”."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/24/keir-starmer-warns-of-tough-times-ahead-to-fix-tory-ruins

    The man really is shameless and dispicable. And then there is that unshakeable certainty - that is what makes him so dangerous. He would have gotten short shrift from Oliver Cromwell.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Are we sure Donald Trump is teetotal?

    Trump posts AI photo of himself riding a lion

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-latest-news-live-harris-polls-b2601306.html

    This AI of him performing Shaggy's It Wasn't Me, with backing from VVP, eclipses that.
    https://x.com/CalltoActivism/status/1827394931209502940
    I'm assuming he didn't make that one himself? He actually set up an AI image of himself riding a lion. And put it on the net. To prove his strength and manliness.

    I mean - wtf?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Are we sure Donald Trump is teetotal?

    Trump posts AI photo of himself riding a lion

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-latest-news-live-harris-polls-b2601306.html

    This AI of him performing Shaggy's It Wasn't Me, with backing from VVP, eclipses that.
    https://x.com/CalltoActivism/status/1827394931209502940
    I'm assuming he didn't make that one himself? He actually set up an AI image of himself riding a lion. And put it on the net. To prove his strength and manliness.

    I mean - wtf?
    Trump accompanied by a lion is a trope generated by the MAGA faithful, that's been around for a while.
    I guess he's just trying to wind up the adulation again.

    Nuts, but explicable.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Betting Post

    F1: backed Piastri each way to win at 7.5 (weirdly, this is higher than the 6.6 for him to win on Betfair):
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/08/the-netherlands-pre-race-2024.html

    Also, Albon disqualified (from qualifying, he starts the race last) and Hamilton got a penalty for his arrogant choice not to phase out of existence when he sensed an approaching Mexican.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Andy_JS said:

    Cheery stuff.

    "British people will have to endure even worse economic and social ­pressures in the months to come as the Labour government takes “unpopular decisions” to rebuild the country from “rubble and ruin” left by the Tories, Keir Starmer will warn this week.

    With the prime minister under mounting pressure from within his own party to help people struggling with rising fuel payments and millions of families in poverty, Starmer will strike a defiant note against those demanding U-turns from his ministers, saying “tough choices” will have to be made before any recovery is possible.

    Starmer’s speech on Tuesday is being billed by Downing Street as “a direct message to the working people across Britain”."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/24/keir-starmer-warns-of-tough-times-ahead-to-fix-tory-ruins

    The man really is shameless and dispicable. And then there is that unshakeable certainty - that is what makes him so dangerous. He would have gotten short shrift from Oliver Cromwell.
    I thought people had finally appreciated the mess we were in.

    Are we really going to be told everything in the garden would have been lovely if only Rishi Sunak could have got off that one flight to Rwanda?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Chris said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cheery stuff.

    "British people will have to endure even worse economic and social ­pressures in the months to come as the Labour government takes “unpopular decisions” to rebuild the country from “rubble and ruin” left by the Tories, Keir Starmer will warn this week.

    With the prime minister under mounting pressure from within his own party to help people struggling with rising fuel payments and millions of families in poverty, Starmer will strike a defiant note against those demanding U-turns from his ministers, saying “tough choices” will have to be made before any recovery is possible.

    Starmer’s speech on Tuesday is being billed by Downing Street as “a direct message to the working people across Britain”."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/24/keir-starmer-warns-of-tough-times-ahead-to-fix-tory-ruins

    The man really is shameless and dispicable. And then there is that unshakeable certainty - that is what makes him so dangerous. He would have gotten short shrift from Oliver Cromwell.
    I thought people had finally appreciated the mess we were in.

    Are we really going to be told everything in the garden would have been lovely if only Rishi Sunak could have got off that one flight to Rwanda?

    Got *on*, surely?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    dixiedean said:

    Been some comment on people playing the system with mental health.
    I've decided to pursue an ADHD/ASD diagnosis. At the age of 57. It's become apparent that I have periodic ADHD burnout. This has been a recurring feature of my life. No one ever told me what it was before. We didn't have it in my day. Like bisexuality.
    Anyways. Having leapt the initial bar for ADHD, (100% on the assessment), am now told that the waiting list for an NHS screening to get an official diagnosis is 5 years+.
    Have also scored highly on ASD.
    I also appear to be unemployed. As what was self evidently a mental health issue has been made a disciplinary one. Cos it's easier. No duty of care.
    I'm a great employee. Kids love me. Staff love me. I just cause trouble by requiring reasonable adjustments. And management can't be arsed
    Upshot is.
    Is it any wonder folk in their 50's aren't working?

    Sorry to hear this @dixiedean - I really recognise this, and have started to wonder if I might be the same to be honest.

    I hope you're OK?

    Are you in a position to retire early from full-time work and pursue voluntary or more flexible work with a more understanding employer?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    Under Labour, things can only get better worse.

    So says...hang on, The Observer? That can't be right...

    https://news.sky.com/story/sundays-national-newspaper-front-pages-12427754?postid=8175107#liveblog-body

    Notice also the The Sunday Times.

    Sleaze under Starmer and cronyism has already started.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    I don't wish to be controversial, but I need some persuading that a wet day in late August, around seven weeks since a new government was elected at the height of summer, is a suitable date to provide us with sufficient evidence to reach a judgment on the performance of that government. They've had one major crisis, the riots, and seemed to handle that pretty well. Otherwise, it's just wait and see, surely?

    Except they didn't handle that well.

    It went on for ages and Starmer struggled to get a grip on that, and then massively overreacted to it legislatively.

    Nothing like as cool as Cameron in 2011.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    algarkirk said:

    Mortimer said:

    Oh, and Kemi is fine.

    But if the Tory membership don't go for Jenrick, we don't AFAICS have a chance of reuniting the right.

    Is it desirable to reunite the right? I'd say the more the merrier. Does Coke desperately want a merger with Pepsi, or do they understand that their competition leads to more interest in the brown sugary fizzy drink sector? The left has the greens, Lib Dems and Labour, and left wing opinions have proliferated. Arguably, the Tory Party shouldn't try and be the only flavour of right wing.
    Yes. Elections (forget 2019) are won from what voters see as the centre. Where available elections are won on centralness, competence and grownupness. There is a gap in the market for a party with all that, and a clear conservative emphasis - on things like seeking equality of opportunity but not outcomes, respecting tradition and custom, seeing the family as fundamental unit, pro business, sound on defence, supporting the institutions that buttress society, freedom of thought, traditional academia. What we once called the Tory party.
    And, what this Labour Party will not deliver in any form.

    Starmer has taken you for a fool.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,349
    ydoethur said:

    Are we sure Donald Trump is teetotal?

    Trump posts AI photo of himself riding a lion

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-latest-news-live-harris-polls-b2601306.html

    Teetoal with shrooms?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,349

    algarkirk said:

    Mortimer said:

    Oh, and Kemi is fine.

    But if the Tory membership don't go for Jenrick, we don't AFAICS have a chance of reuniting the right.

    Is it desirable to reunite the right? I'd say the more the merrier. Does Coke desperately want a merger with Pepsi, or do they understand that their competition leads to more interest in the brown sugary fizzy drink sector? The left has the greens, Lib Dems and Labour, and left wing opinions have proliferated. Arguably, the Tory Party shouldn't try and be the only flavour of right wing.
    Yes. Elections (forget 2019) are won from what voters see as the centre. Where available elections are won on centralness, competence and grownupness. There is a gap in the market for a party with all that, and a clear conservative emphasis - on things like seeking equality of opportunity but not outcomes, respecting tradition and custom, seeing the family as fundamental unit, pro business, sound on defence, supporting the institutions that buttress society, freedom of thought, traditional academia. What we once called the Tory party.
    And, what this Labour Party will not deliver in any form.

    Starmer has taken you for a fool.
    Starmer is about to disover the concept of a mile wide and an inch deep...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301

    NEW THREAD

  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    Nigelb said:

    April 2024

    “I’d even take Biden over Junior” - DJT
    https://x.com/AesPolitics1/status/1827135045846307270

    Is Chump correct in that tweet that energy prices in Upstate NY and New England are the highest in the USA, except California ("run by Governor Newscum")?

    It sounds like another likely fabrication-from-the-hip by the Underpants Emperor in his Basement at midnight.
This discussion has been closed.