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Mind the enthusiasm gap – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,179
edited August 26 in General
Mind the enthusiasm gap – politicalbetting.com

NEW: Economist/YouGov Poll, August 17-20% who are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president in NovemberDemocrats: 71%Republicans: 61%https://t.co/UCEt99tmM8 pic.twitter.com/84qtkksOOD

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,261
    edited August 22
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    England in trouble. Root is out. Let's see what our tail can do.

    Very long tail. Certainly no England batting deep. It is why Stokes is a huge loss for the balance of the team.

    It is why I don't really understand the selection of Potts, he isn't the future and doesn't fill the Stokes role.
    Did he not get 149* recently? That would be handy.
    Still averages under 20 in FC and a massive 7.5 at test level. Ben Stokes stand-in he is not and his bowling isn't test level. In my opinion, its a nothing selection, it is neither a raw talent for the future or somebody who has shown they are test level. Its yet another not fast enough for anything other than very favourable English conditions like Robinson and Woakes is now struggling to get it above 80.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    Is the enthusiasm gap enough to overcome the lower propensity of the young and ethnic to vote?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,754
    DavidL said:

    Is the enthusiasm gap enough to overcome the lower propensity of the young and ethnic to vote?

    I think the abortion plebiscites will boost turnout with those demographics, it has in the past.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    And is California on the East coast?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,754
    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    No.

    I'm on holiday and slightly distracted.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,809
    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    It is if you live in the Pacific.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313
    Currently Harris is ahead in the popular vote but by 1.5% ie less than Biden's 4.3% popular vote winning margin in 2020 and Hillary's 2.1% lead in 2016 over Trump. The EC looks neck and neck. Enthusiasm helps but a voter is a voter enthusiastic or not.
    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,281
    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    It's just across the Hudson.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313
    edited August 22
    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,452

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    No.

    I'm on holiday and slightly distracted.
    If I’ve time, I might have a header for you tomorrow.
    Whom do I send it to ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,754
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    No.

    I'm on holiday and slightly distracted.
    If I’ve time, I might have a header for you tomorrow.
    Whom do I send it to ?
    I’ll send you a vanilla message.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,607
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Arnie got 8 years as governor quite recently as a republican but I agree its pretty hard to imagine a right wing republican like Reagan getting it now.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,685
    Horsham had Tories for over 100 years. We’re now Liberal and socks and sandals are obligatory. Times change.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,176
    "My theory is everybody loves an elite West coast liberal lawyer."

    God love you @TheScreamingEagles , but I admire your ability to keep a straight face... :)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,809
    Enthusiasm to vote is where our pollsters went wrong in July. Parties like LDs and Greens with high energy positive campaigns got good turnout. Labour, Con and SNP didn't.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,452
    The Democrats have a whole roster of talented public speakers, but Buttigieg is the master of the media interview, both hostile and, like here, friendly.

    “It’s the simple fact that they wrote down their own policies..”
    https://x.com/chyeaok/status/1826629024237678801

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,809

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
    The East Coast of England is our Alabama.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930

    DavidL said:

    Is the enthusiasm gap enough to overcome the lower propensity of the young and ethnic to vote?

    I think the abortion plebiscites will boost turnout with those demographics, it has in the past.
    In those states where there is one I agree. Personally, possibly because I want her to win, I find the 538 aggregates more persuasive than the RCP ones quoted by @HYUFD. In those Harris is currently up 3.2% and that's before any boost from what has been a very successful Convention so far.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

    I think Harris is pretty much nailed on to win the popular vote, just as Hilary did. The EC remains in the TCTC bracket.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313
    Jonathan said:

    Horsham had Tories for over 100 years. We’re now Liberal and socks and sandals are obligatory. Times change.

    And can change back. Stoke had Labour MPs for nearly 100 years until 2017 and 2019, then turned back to Labour again in 2024
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
    No. It is still culturally as well as economically conservative on the whole
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,293

    DavidL said:

    Is the enthusiasm gap enough to overcome the lower propensity of the young and ethnic to vote?

    I think the abortion plebiscites will boost turnout with those demographics, it has in the past.
    Is there a cross-check of which swing states have an abortion vote as well this November anywhere?
  • DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    Yes. Norfolk!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313
    Jonathan said:

    Horsham had Tories for over 100 years. We’re now Liberal and socks and sandals are obligatory. Times change.

    The last Liberal MP for Horsham was James Clifton Brown in the 19th century, whose descendant Geoffrey Clifton Brown is now Tory MP for North Cotswolds
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    Yes. Norfolk!
    Hmm...Are you getting Liz Truss and Kamala Harris mixed up by any chance? Easily done, I will admit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
    The East Coast of England is our Alabama.
    Not all of it, Suffolk Coastal is Labour, North Norfolk LD. Lincolnshire too is fervently rightwing
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Is the enthusiasm gap enough to overcome the lower propensity of the young and ethnic to vote?

    I think the abortion plebiscites will boost turnout with those demographics, it has in the past.
    In those states where there is one I agree. Personally, possibly because I want her to win, I find the 538 aggregates more persuasive than the RCP ones quoted by @HYUFD. In those Harris is currently up 3.2% and that's before any boost from what has been a very successful Convention so far.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

    I think Harris is pretty much nailed on to win the popular vote, just as Hilary did. The EC remains in the TCTC bracket.
    I think Kennedy Jr dropping out will boost Trump in the national popular vote, less so the swing states and may even help Harris in Nevada for example
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,293
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
    No. It is still culturally as well as economically conservative on the whole
    It's a good question though. There is something different about Essex (even the nicer bits) that makes it more loyally conservative and Conservative than, say, Surrey.

    Part of the answer might be that it's not quite as posh, but it's not a complete answer. It's not just about the Essex Man stereotype, either.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,551

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    Yes. Norfolk!
    Norfolk enchants, so I have been told.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,476
    edited August 22
    @Eabhal

    So, today I drove through Llangollen, Glyndyfrdwy and Corwen. These are villages on the A5, quite congested, slow - actually, you wouldn't be going much faster than 20mph through them anyway.

    All three were switched from 30mph to 20mph in September last year. I have confirmed that.

    Only Glyndyfrdwy is marked as a change on your map.

    So it is incomplete, and you should not rely on it.

    This need not be a conspiracy. As I said, the civil servants in Cardiff are thick and know very little about Wales outwith the Valleys.

    But - before you make statements about the small number of places affected, please be aware your data set is flawed.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,607

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
    No. It is still culturally as well as economically conservative on the whole
    It's a good question though. There is something different about Essex (even the nicer bits) that makes it more loyally conservative and Conservative than, say, Surrey.

    Part of the answer might be that it's not quite as posh, but it's not a complete answer. It's not just about the Essex Man stereotype, either.
    We've seen some stonking changes in support in some regions and types of seats over the last couple of decades.

    With Labour winning a huge majority on only 34% of the vote it's worth thinking about what changes might be possible over the next decade or so.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,581
    Timely change of thread @TheScreamingEagles

    If I ever read the phrase "merge in turn" again it will be too soon.

  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    FPT:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    It is interesting being in Wales for a few days and obeying the new 20mph speed limit. Everywhere I seem to build up massive queues of irritable locals.

    This is in the north-east, so one of the areas worst affected and where the three local councils have been most resistant to making adjustments.

    Good on you! It only takes one law abiding driver (or commercial/emergency vehicle) to enforce them.

    Given the number of roads that are already excepted from 20mph, I suspected that councils would find it difficult to find any more without pissing off local residents (people like driving at 30mph past other people's houses). I'd guess that is what is happening here?
    Why italicise that?

    If people choose to live on a main road, what's wrong with driving past their home at 30mph or 40mph or 50mph if that's the speed limit?

    Main arterial roads should be 40 or 50mph through towns and 60 or 70mph outside of towns.

    20 is plenty for residential streets, but arteries are not residential streets.
    That does get more complicated in Wales, where the lack of bypasses means very often they are the same thing. Ponterwyd or Rhayader or Aberystwyth, for example.

    There are some however classified as residential that really are not. The A44 at Llangurig where the 20mph zone goes past the church, the pub and a garage springs to mind. The village itself is on a back street...
    Yes, this is ridiculous:

    https://tinyurl.com/bdzwt32j
    That used to be 30 (below), and the limit has been dropped to 20 and moved a little further out of the village to be beyond the entrance to a housing estate which looks like it is due for a lot more expansion.

    The move of the sign further out is sensible, because they know that your average UK driver who does not look beyond the end of their bonnet will be racing up to that sign at 50 or 60mph than stand their car on its nose to slow down, or continue through the village (and it is through the village) at highway speeds.

    I'd say that 30mph is a sensible limit there IF the limit is obeyed, but it will be ignored - because that is seen as acceptable behaviour.

    The real issue there is that UK roads are not designed to look like roads that are safe at the suitable speed limit eg through villages, so there are not the necessary visual cues for people driving through to slow down, and they go hooning through regardless.

    That's down to the nature of LHAs being created to build roads, and ignore other interests - such as adequate consideration for pedestrians. It's also why junctions prioritise throughput over safety, and anyone asking for a Zebra crossing across a busy road to a primary school will be told in effect that not enough children under 10 have been killed or crippled to justify it yet.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@52.4052751,-3.6039681,3a,75y,324.77h,76.15t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s8sOZOWB6phAG5b25VaVZ6w!2e0!5s20101101T000000!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en&coh=205409&entry=ttu
    Bit in bold. The problem is, some people will obey a 20 limit and that annoys people.

    Stick a speed camera in there and people will do 30.
    I've been teaching my step-daughter to drive recently, and it is very noticeable that some people simply cannot stand to drive at the speed limit. My step-daughter obviously has to learn to drive at or just below the speed limit (since she'd otherwise fail her driving test), but whatever the speed limit, there's always some bozo behind who just has to get past and will drive right on our tail before overtaking at the next (barely) possible opportunity.

    And while I'm on the topic, I've seen some of the worst driving about while teaching her to drive. The L-plates seem like a red rag to a bull for some people. They think nothing of driving right on your tail, or cutting straight across in front of you. And if a learner has stalled their car on a hill in front of you, sitting two inches behind their bumper and leaning on your horn isn't going to help them get going any faster!
    People are bullying arseholes, especially when they feel safe from confrontation, such as in their car, or behind the boss’s desk.
    My driving instructor liked my approach to people hammering the horn when I was doing 20.

    I would, almost instinctively, slow down by about 1 mph, each time they sounded the horn.
    I let them pass.

    As a general rule I like dangerous idiots in front of me so I can watch them, rather than behind me where they are likely to rear-end me.
    Letting people in is the best way to drive even if they're in the wrong.

    The flipside is using the invariably empty lane for a road merger, don't be the arsehole hanging wheels over the white line to "block" people coming up the other lane in some sort of weird non highway code compliant moral queueing protocol.
    That one annoys me. Using both lanes is quite explicitly the rule!
    Recently spent forty minutes near-stationary in an unnecessary queue on the Oxford ring road. One lane was closed and it required people to merge into the outside line.

    Due to a series of timid drivers at the front of the queue in the outside lane and a series of aggressive drivers coming up the inside lane to the front and shouldering in, one lane was in constant motion (with no chance of getting in as they were nose-to-tail) and the other lane was completely stationary.

    This continued until one person managed to pull out into the moving lane and stopped. He then matched with the inside lane as it started up again (when the series of drivers ahead of him in it had got through), so both were moving at the same rate.

    He would certainly have counted as "the arsehole" above, forcing a non highway-code compliant moral queueing protocol, but we were quite grateful. Especially as we'd missed the start of our movie already by then (having left plenty of time to get there)
    The "aggressive" drivers are doing the right thing. You're supposed to use both lanes until the merge point!

    If they wanted the merge point a mile back, they'd have put it a mile back. But then idiots would try and force a premature merge two miles back.

    Why didn't you just use the moving lane? As you're supposed to!
    Because the moving lane was nose to tail at about 6-7 mph and pulling out would have caused a crash.
    You are supposed to merge in turn. They were not doing that; they weren't allowing the other lane to be usefully used. Because they were selfish arseholes taking advantage of the more timid drivers at the front of the queue.

    If there had been the opportunity to squeeze in, everyone from the stationary lane would have done so and we'd have effectively merged early on the wrong lane, wouldn't we? You're happy with that?

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    It is interesting being in Wales for a few days and obeying the new 20mph speed limit. Everywhere I seem to build up massive queues of irritable locals.

    This is in the north-east, so one of the areas worst affected and where the three local councils have been most resistant to making adjustments.

    Good on you! It only takes one law abiding driver (or commercial/emergency vehicle) to enforce them.

    Given the number of roads that are already excepted from 20mph, I suspected that councils would find it difficult to find any more without pissing off local residents (people like driving at 30mph past other people's houses). I'd guess that is what is happening here?
    Why italicise that?

    If people choose to live on a main road, what's wrong with driving past their home at 30mph or 40mph or 50mph if that's the speed limit?

    Main arterial roads should be 40 or 50mph through towns and 60 or 70mph outside of towns.

    20 is plenty for residential streets, but arteries are not residential streets.
    That does get more complicated in Wales, where the lack of bypasses means very often they are the same thing. Ponterwyd or Rhayader or Aberystwyth, for example.

    There are some however classified as residential that really are not. The A44 at Llangurig where the 20mph zone goes past the church, the pub and a garage springs to mind. The village itself is on a back street...
    Yes, this is ridiculous:

    https://tinyurl.com/bdzwt32j
    That used to be 30 (below), and the limit has been dropped to 20 and moved a little further out of the village to be beyond the entrance to a housing estate which looks like it is due for a lot more expansion.

    The move of the sign further out is sensible, because they know that your average UK driver who does not look beyond the end of their bonnet will be racing up to that sign at 50 or 60mph than stand their car on its nose to slow down, or continue through the village (and it is through the village) at highway speeds.

    I'd say that 30mph is a sensible limit there IF the limit is obeyed, but it will be ignored - because that is seen as acceptable behaviour.

    The real issue there is that UK roads are not designed to look like roads that are safe at the suitable speed limit eg through villages, so there are not the necessary visual cues for people driving through to slow down, and they go hooning through regardless.

    That's down to the nature of LHAs being created to build roads, and ignore other interests - such as adequate consideration for pedestrians. It's also why junctions prioritise throughput over safety, and anyone asking for a Zebra crossing across a busy road to a primary school will be told in effect that not enough children under 10 have been killed or crippled to justify it yet.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@52.4052751,-3.6039681,3a,75y,324.77h,76.15t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s8sOZOWB6phAG5b25VaVZ6w!2e0!5s20101101T000000!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en&coh=205409&entry=ttu
    Bit in bold. The problem is, some people will obey a 20 limit and that annoys people.

    Stick a speed camera in there and people will do 30.
    I've been teaching my step-daughter to drive recently, and it is very noticeable that some people simply cannot stand to drive at the speed limit. My step-daughter obviously has to learn to drive at or just below the speed limit (since she'd otherwise fail her driving test), but whatever the speed limit, there's always some bozo behind who just has to get past and will drive right on our tail before overtaking at the next (barely) possible opportunity.

    And while I'm on the topic, I've seen some of the worst driving about while teaching her to drive. The L-plates seem like a red rag to a bull for some people. They think nothing of driving right on your tail, or cutting straight across in front of you. And if a learner has stalled their car on a hill in front of you, sitting two inches behind their bumper and leaning on your horn isn't going to help them get going any faster!
    People are bullying arseholes, especially when they feel safe from confrontation, such as in their car, or behind the boss’s desk.
    My driving instructor liked my approach to people hammering the horn when I was doing 20.

    I would, almost instinctively, slow down by about 1 mph, each time they sounded the horn.
    I let them pass.

    As a general rule I like dangerous idiots in front of me so I can watch them, rather than behind me where they are likely to rear-end me.
    Letting people in is the best way to drive even if they're in the wrong.

    The flipside is using the invariably empty lane for a road merger, don't be the arsehole hanging wheels over the white line to "block" people coming up the other lane in some sort of weird non highway code compliant moral queueing protocol.
    That one annoys me. Using both lanes is quite explicitly the rule!
    Recently spent forty minutes near-stationary in an unnecessary queue on the Oxford ring road. One lane was closed and it required people to merge into the outside line.

    Due to a series of timid drivers at the front of the queue in the outside lane and a series of aggressive drivers coming up the inside lane to the front and shouldering in, one lane was in constant motion (with no chance of getting in as they were nose-to-tail) and the other lane was completely stationary.

    This continued until one person managed to pull out into the moving lane and stopped. He then matched with the inside lane as it started up again (when the series of drivers ahead of him in it had got through), so both were moving at the same rate.

    He would certainly have counted as "the arsehole" above, forcing a non highway-code compliant moral queueing protocol, but we were quite grateful. Especially as we'd missed the start of our movie already by then (having left plenty of time to get there)
    The "aggressive" drivers are doing the right thing. You're supposed to use both lanes until the merge point!

    If they wanted the merge point a mile back, they'd have put it a mile back. But then idiots would try and force a premature merge two miles back.

    Why didn't you just use the moving lane? As you're supposed to!
    In this case, it sounds like the aggressive drivers were the ones in the inside lane refusing to merge in turn with those in the outside lane.
    Indeed. Use both lanes until the merge point and merge in turn at the merge point - that's the Highway Code.

    Those using an open lane to move are doing what they're supposed to do. The lane is open, its not closed.
    Um - the inside lane was the lane still moving, and FeersumEnjineeya was correct - they were refusing to merge in turn.
    In effect, they were making it so that only one lane was moving and the other was stuck, so the other lane wasn't usable.

    EDIT TO ADD: The basic rule works fine - as long as everyone complies and isn't an arsehole. As soon as someone screws it up for everyone, sometimes you have to have an intervention.
    It's so easy for some people in cars to turn into selfish arseholes - arguably the lack of any reasonable possibility for someone to pick them up on it allows their inner self to come out, and some people are truly self-centred tossers.

    In this case, if someone hadn't done the blocking thing and effectively reset the system so it could work properly again (after he'd passed through after letting the formerly blocked lane to move again, I'd have expected it to zipper properly again). But someone needed to do that in this case.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,176

    DavidL said:

    Is the enthusiasm gap enough to overcome the lower propensity of the young and ethnic to vote?

    I think the abortion plebiscites will boost turnout with those demographics, it has in the past.
    Is there a cross-check of which swing states have an abortion vote as well this November anywhere?
    https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/dashboard/ballot-tracker-status-of-abortion-related-state-constitutional-amendment-measures/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,176
    ydoethur said:

    @Eabhal

    ...Glyndyfrdwy...

    I know Welsh considers "y" to be a vowel. But if you ignore that precondition, the word "Glyndyfrdwy" is eleven letters long with no vowels.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,476
    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    @Eabhal

    ...Glyndyfrdwy...

    I know Welsh considers "y" to be a vowel. But if you ignore that precondition, the word "Glyndyfrdwy" is eleven letters long with no vowels.
    W is also a vowel in Welsh.

    It means ‘the valley of the light on the waters of the Dee.’
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,176
    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    @Eabhal

    ...Glyndyfrdwy...

    I know Welsh considers "y" to be a vowel. But if you ignore that precondition, the word "Glyndyfrdwy" is eleven letters long with no vowels.
    I think English speakers should read it as "Glindifridwi" to aid pronounciation. I'm helpful, me :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
    No. It is still culturally as well as economically conservative on the whole
    It's a good question though. There is something different about Essex (even the nicer bits) that makes it more loyally conservative and Conservative than, say, Surrey.

    Part of the answer might be that it's not quite as posh, but it's not a complete answer. It's not just about the Essex Man stereotype, either.
    In part, yes though in 1997 it was the reverse, plenty of Essex seats went Labour but every Surrey seat stayed Tory. Now although Labour made gains in Essex and the LDs won Chelmsford most Essex seats stayed blue while the LDs now hold only 1 less seat in Surrey than the Conservatives.

    I think the answer actually is Essex is less posh (with a few exceptions like Saffron Walden and Theydon Bois), before Brexit the posher and richer the area the more likely it was to vote Conservative. Post Brexit the more white working class the area and the more pensioners it has the more likely it is to vote Conservative (even with leakage of the former to Reform).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,452

    FPT:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    It is interesting being in Wales for a few days and obeying the new 20mph speed limit. Everywhere I seem to build up massive queues of irritable locals.

    This is in the north-east, so one of the areas worst affected and where the three local councils have been most resistant to making adjustments.

    Good on you! It only takes one law abiding driver (or commercial/emergency vehicle) to enforce them.

    Given the number of roads that are already excepted from 20mph, I suspected that councils would find it difficult to find any more without pissing off local residents (people like driving at 30mph past other people's houses). I'd guess that is what is happening here?
    Why italicise that?

    If people choose to live on a main road, what's wrong with driving past their home at 30mph or 40mph or 50mph if that's the speed limit?

    Main arterial roads should be 40 or 50mph through towns and 60 or 70mph outside of towns.

    20 is plenty for residential streets, but arteries are not residential streets.
    That does get more complicated in Wales, where the lack of bypasses means very often they are the same thing. Ponterwyd or Rhayader or Aberystwyth, for example.

    There are some however classified as residential that really are not. The A44 at Llangurig where the 20mph zone goes past the church, the pub and a garage springs to mind. The village itself is on a back street...
    Yes, this is ridiculous:

    https://tinyurl.com/bdzwt32j
    That used to be 30 (below), and the limit has been dropped to 20 and moved a little further out of the village to be beyond the entrance to a housing estate which looks like it is due for a lot more expansion.

    The move of the sign further out is sensible, because they know that your average UK driver who does not look beyond the end of their bonnet will be racing up to that sign at 50 or 60mph than stand their car on its nose to slow down, or continue through the village (and it is through the village) at highway speeds.

    I'd say that 30mph is a sensible limit there IF the limit is obeyed, but it will be ignored - because that is seen as acceptable behaviour.

    The real issue there is that UK roads are not designed to look like roads that are safe at the suitable speed limit eg through villages, so there are not the necessary visual cues for people driving through to slow down, and they go hooning through regardless.

    That's down to the nature of LHAs being created to build roads, and ignore other interests - such as adequate consideration for pedestrians. It's also why junctions prioritise throughput over safety, and anyone asking for a Zebra crossing across a busy road to a primary school will be told in effect that not enough children under 10 have been killed or crippled to justify it yet.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@52.4052751,-3.6039681,3a,75y,324.77h,76.15t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s8sOZOWB6phAG5b25VaVZ6w!2e0!5s20101101T000000!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en&coh=205409&entry=ttu
    Bit in bold. The problem is, some people will obey a 20 limit and that annoys people.

    Stick a speed camera in there and people will do 30.
    I've been teaching my step-daughter to drive recently, and it is very noticeable that some people simply cannot stand to drive at the speed limit. My step-daughter obviously has to learn to drive at or just below the speed limit (since she'd otherwise fail her driving test), but whatever the speed limit, there's always some bozo behind who just has to get past and will drive right on our tail before overtaking at the next (barely) possible opportunity.

    And while I'm on the topic, I've seen some of the worst driving about while teaching her to drive. The L-plates seem like a red rag to a bull for some people. They think nothing of driving right on your tail, or cutting straight across in front of you. And if a learner has stalled their car on a hill in front of you, sitting two inches behind their bumper and leaning on your horn isn't going to help them get going any faster!
    People are bullying arseholes, especially when they feel safe from confrontation, such as in their car, or behind the boss’s desk.
    My driving instructor liked my approach to people hammering the horn when I was doing 20.

    I would, almost instinctively, slow down by about 1 mph, each time they sounded the horn.
    I let them pass.

    As a general rule I like dangerous idiots in front of me so I can watch them, rather than behind me where they are likely to rear-end me.
    Letting people in is the best way to drive even if they're in the wrong.

    The flipside is using the invariably empty lane for a road merger, don't be the arsehole hanging wheels over the white line to "block" people coming up the other lane in some sort of weird non highway code compliant moral queueing protocol.
    That one annoys me. Using both lanes is quite explicitly the rule!
    Recently spent forty minutes near-stationary in an unnecessary queue on the Oxford ring road. One lane was closed and it required people to merge into the outside line.

    Due to a series of timid drivers at the front of the queue in the outside lane and a series of aggressive drivers coming up the inside lane to the front and shouldering in, one lane was in constant motion (with no chance of getting in as they were nose-to-tail) and the other lane was completely stationary.

    This continued until one person managed to pull out into the moving lane and stopped. He then matched with the inside lane as it started up again (when the series of drivers ahead of him in it had got through), so both were moving at the same rate.

    He would certainly have counted as "the arsehole" above, forcing a non highway-code compliant moral queueing protocol, but we were quite grateful. Especially as we'd missed the start of our movie already by then (having left plenty of time to get there)
    The "aggressive" drivers are doing the right thing. You're supposed to use both lanes until the merge point!

    If they wanted the merge point a mile back, they'd have put it a mile back. But then idiots would try and force a premature merge two miles back.

    Why didn't you just use the moving lane? As you're supposed to!
    Because the moving lane was nose to tail at about 6-7 mph and pulling out would have caused a crash.
    You are supposed to merge in turn. They were not doing that; they weren't allowing the other lane to be usefully used. Because they were selfish arseholes taking advantage of the more timid drivers at the front of the queue.

    If there had been the opportunity to squeeze in, everyone from the stationary lane would have done so and we'd have effectively merged early on the wrong lane, wouldn't we? You're happy with that?

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    MattW said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    It is interesting being in Wales for a few days and obeying the new 20mph speed limit. Everywhere I seem to build up massive queues of irritable locals.

    This is in the north-east, so one of the areas worst affected and where the three local councils have been most resistant to making adjustments.

    Good on you! It only takes one law abiding driver (or commercial/emergency vehicle) to enforce them.

    Given the number of roads that are already excepted from 20mph, I suspected that councils would find it difficult to find any more without pissing off local residents (people like driving at 30mph past other people's houses). I'd guess that is what is happening here?
    Why italicise that?

    If people choose to live on a main road, what's wrong with driving past their home at 30mph or 40mph or 50mph if that's the speed limit?

    Main arterial roads should be 40 or 50mph through towns and 60 or 70mph outside of towns.

    20 is plenty for residential streets, but arteries are not residential streets.
    That does get more complicated in Wales, where the lack of bypasses means very often they are the same thing. Ponterwyd or Rhayader or Aberystwyth, for example.

    There are some however classified as residential that really are not. The A44 at Llangurig where the 20mph zone goes past the church, the pub and a garage springs to mind. The village itself is on a back street...
    Yes, this is ridiculous:

    https://tinyurl.com/bdzwt32j
    That used to be 30 (below), and the limit has been dropped to 20 and moved a little further out of the village to be beyond the entrance to a housing estate which looks like it is due for a lot more expansion.

    The move of the sign further out is sensible, because they know that your average UK driver who does not look beyond the end of their bonnet will be racing up to that sign at 50 or 60mph than stand their car on its nose to slow down, or continue through the village (and it is through the village) at highway speeds.

    I'd say that 30mph is a sensible limit there IF the limit is obeyed, but it will be ignored - because that is seen as acceptable behaviour.

    The real issue there is that UK roads are not designed to look like roads that are safe at the suitable speed limit eg through villages, so there are not the necessary visual cues for people driving through to slow down, and they go hooning through regardless.

    That's down to the nature of LHAs being created to build roads, and ignore other interests - such as adequate consideration for pedestrians. It's also why junctions prioritise throughput over safety, and anyone asking for a Zebra crossing across a busy road to a primary school will be told in effect that not enough children under 10 have been killed or crippled to justify it yet.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@52.4052751,-3.6039681,3a,75y,324.77h,76.15t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s8sOZOWB6phAG5b25VaVZ6w!2e0!5s20101101T000000!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en&coh=205409&entry=ttu
    Bit in bold. The problem is, some people will obey a 20 limit and that annoys people.

    Stick a speed camera in there and people will do 30.
    I've been teaching my step-daughter to drive recently, and it is very noticeable that some people simply cannot stand to drive at the speed limit. My step-daughter obviously has to learn to drive at or just below the speed limit (since she'd otherwise fail her driving test), but whatever the speed limit, there's always some bozo behind who just has to get past and will drive right on our tail before overtaking at the next (barely) possible opportunity.

    And while I'm on the topic, I've seen some of the worst driving about while teaching her to drive. The L-plates seem like a red rag to a bull for some people. They think nothing of driving right on your tail, or cutting straight across in front of you. And if a learner has stalled their car on a hill in front of you, sitting two inches behind their bumper and leaning on your horn isn't going to help them get going any faster!
    People are bullying arseholes, especially when they feel safe from confrontation, such as in their car, or behind the boss’s desk.
    My driving instructor liked my approach to people hammering the horn when I was doing 20.

    I would, almost instinctively, slow down by about 1 mph, each time they sounded the horn.
    I let them pass.

    As a general rule I like dangerous idiots in front of me so I can watch them, rather than behind me where they are likely to rear-end me.
    Letting people in is the best way to drive even if they're in the wrong.

    The flipside is using the invariably empty lane for a road merger, don't be the arsehole hanging wheels over the white line to "block" people coming up the other lane in some sort of weird non highway code compliant moral queueing protocol.
    That one annoys me. Using both lanes is quite explicitly the rule!
    Recently spent forty minutes near-stationary in an unnecessary queue on the Oxford ring road. One lane was closed and it required people to merge into the outside line.

    Due to a series of timid drivers at the front of the queue in the outside lane and a series of aggressive drivers coming up the inside lane to the front and shouldering in, one lane was in constant motion (with no chance of getting in as they were nose-to-tail) and the other lane was completely stationary.

    This continued until one person managed to pull out into the moving lane and stopped. He then matched with the inside lane as it started up again (when the series of drivers ahead of him in it had got through), so both were moving at the same rate.

    He would certainly have counted as "the arsehole" above, forcing a non highway-code compliant moral queueing protocol, but we were quite grateful. Especially as we'd missed the start of our movie already by then (having left plenty of time to get there)
    The "aggressive" drivers are doing the right thing. You're supposed to use both lanes until the merge point!

    If they wanted the merge point a mile back, they'd have put it a mile back. But then idiots would try and force a premature merge two miles back.

    Why didn't you just use the moving lane? As you're supposed to!
    In this case, it sounds like the aggressive drivers were the ones in the inside lane refusing to merge in turn with those in the outside lane.
    Indeed. Use both lanes until the merge point and merge in turn at the merge point - that's the Highway Code.

    Those using an open lane to move are doing what they're supposed to do. The lane is open, its not closed.
    Um - the inside lane was the lane still moving, and FeersumEnjineeya was correct - they were refusing to merge in turn.
    In effect, they were making it so that only one lane was moving and the other was stuck, so the other lane wasn't usable.

    EDIT TO ADD: The basic rule works fine - as long as everyone complies and isn't an arsehole. As soon as someone screws it up for everyone, sometimes you have to have an intervention.
    It's so easy for some people in cars to turn into selfish arseholes - arguably the lack of any reasonable possibility for someone to pick them up on it allows their inner self to come out, and some people are truly self-centred tossers.

    In this case, if someone hadn't done the blocking thing and effectively reset the system so it could work properly again (after he'd passed through after letting the formerly blocked lane to move again, I'd have expected it to zipper properly again). But someone needed to do that in this case.
    If it’s a really long queue, I am sometimes that guy.
    Requires a thick skin to match speeds with the stalled queue as it starts to move again, and to ignore the aggressive drivers coming up behind you - but sometimes it helps to imagine that it’s Barty in that Audi SUV in your rear view mirror.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,809
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
    The East Coast of England is our Alabama.
    Not all of it, Suffolk Coastal is Labour, North Norfolk LD. Lincolnshire too is fervently rightwing
    Even Alabama has some Democrat counties!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,411
    On the header, I wonder how much market share in the USA polling market belongs to UK-based companies?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    Yes. Norfolk!
    Hmm...Are you getting Liz Truss and Kamala Harris mixed up by any chance? Easily done, I will admit.
    I might be wrong, but I think Reform won the constituency that California is in. It changed boundaries, and the MP was (I think) Brandon Lewis, who was shit when he was the minister responsible for the fire service!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    edited August 22
    Nigelb said:

    The Democrats have a whole roster of talented public speakers, but Buttigieg is the master of the media interview, both hostile and, like here, friendly.

    “It’s the simple fact that they wrote down their own policies..”
    https://x.com/chyeaok/status/1826629024237678801

    His speech yesterday was once again outstanding. He has a powerful future.
    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/22/2264958/-Pete-Buttigieg-delivers-rhetorical-genius-once-again-at-DNC-2024?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,452
    Why do the folk who get wound up about the singular “they” never notice its more objectionable political usage ?
    https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1826334089546531308
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,775
    edited August 22
    ydoethur said:

    @Eabhal

    So, today I drove through Llangollen, Glyndyfrdwy and Corwen. These are villages on the A5, quite congested, slow - actually, you wouldn't be going much faster than 20mph through them anyway.

    All three were switched from 30mph to 20mph in September last year. I have confirmed that.

    Only Glyndyfrdwy is marked as a change on your map.

    So it is incomplete, and you should not rely on it.

    This need not be a conspiracy. As I said, the civil servants in Cardiff are thick and know very little about Wales outwith the Valleys.

    But - before you make statements about the small number of places affected, please be aware your data set is flawed.

    Have you raised a complaint with the Welsh Government then? Because until it's challenged and changed, it remains the evidence on which we have to rely.

    It might be to do with inconsistent reporting by councils too, if you have a scan through the notes. It remains the case that there are hundreds of exceptions detailed on the map.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,176
    Nigelb said:

    Why do the folk who get wound up about the singular “they” never notice its more objectionable political usage ?
    https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1826334089546531308

    They're idiots?

    :)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,209
    ydoethur said:

    @Eabhal

    So, today I drove through Llangollen, Glyndyfrdwy and Corwen. These are villages on the A5, quite congested, slow - actually, you wouldn't be going much faster than 20mph through them anyway.

    All three were switched from 30mph to 20mph in September last year. I have confirmed that.

    Only Glyndyfrdwy is marked as a change on your map.

    So it is incomplete, and you should not rely on it.

    This need not be a conspiracy. As I said, the civil servants in Cardiff are thick and know very little about Wales outwith the Valleys.

    But - before you make statements about the small number of places affected, please be aware your data set is flawed.

    So I open Google Streetview for Corwen. Very narrow pavements on the main A5 running through it and at whatever time of day the Google cameras went through actually more pedestrians than cars. It appears to be a slamdunk candidate for a 20 mph limit.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,551

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
    No. It is still culturally as well as economically conservative on the whole
    It's a good question though. There is something different about Essex (even the nicer bits) that makes it more loyally conservative and Conservative than, say, Surrey.

    Part of the answer might be that it's not quite as posh, but it's not a complete answer. It's not just about the Essex Man stereotype, either.
    Essex has seaside resorts: Southend, Clacton etc. Surrey doesn't.
    And Surrey commuters are more likely to be public sector compared to "red braces" City commuters from Essex?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,861
    On the topic:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    In conclusion, therefore, and bearing in mind that Trump is preferred on the economy, I would say Harris is currently heading for defeat

    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1826617853308797141
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313
    edited August 22
    BBC sacks Jermanie Jenas from the One Show and Match of the Day

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy76pdz5152o
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,754
    edited August 22
    viewcode said:

    "My theory is everybody loves an elite West coast liberal lawyer."

    God love you @TheScreamingEagles , but I admire your ability to keep a straight face... :)

    By November the UK and US elections (and the Tory leadership contest) could all have been won by lawyers.

    That tells you everybody loves a lawyer. What more proof could you want?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313

    On the topic:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    In conclusion, therefore, and bearing in mind that Trump is preferred on the economy, I would say Harris is currently heading for defeat

    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1826617853308797141

    It is neck and neck
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,754

    On the topic:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    In conclusion, therefore, and bearing in mind that Trump is preferred on the economy, I would say Harris is currently heading for defeat

    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1826617853308797141

    But in October 2020 Trump was preferred to Biden on the economy in plenty of polls.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,452
    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why do the folk who get wound up about the singular “they” never notice its more objectionable political usage ?
    https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1826334089546531308

    They're idiots?

    :)
    See also Vance’s recent repetition of “they” tried to assassinate President Trump.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,313

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
    No. It is still culturally as well as economically conservative on the whole
    It's a good question though. There is something different about Essex (even the nicer bits) that makes it more loyally conservative and Conservative than, say, Surrey.

    Part of the answer might be that it's not quite as posh, but it's not a complete answer. It's not just about the Essex Man stereotype, either.
    Essex has seaside resorts: Southend, Clacton etc. Surrey doesn't.
    And Surrey commuters are more likely to be public sector compared to "red braces" City commuters from Essex?
    Surrey is the poshest Home County, plenty of city commuters there too.

    Essex is the poorest Home County along with Kent, historically Labour's strongest counties in the Home Counties have been those 2 with the LDs stronger elsewhere in the South East.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,261
    edited August 22
    Jermaine Jenas, who presents The One Show and appears on Match of the Day for the BBC, has been sacked by the corporation following complaints about workplace conduct. BBC News understands his contract was terminated because of alleged issues relating to workplace behaviour, after issues involving digital communications such as texts were raised with the corporation a few weeks ago.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,832
    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why do the folk who get wound up about the singular “they” never notice its more objectionable political usage ?
    https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1826334089546531308

    They're idiots?

    :)
    See also Vance’s recent repetition of “they” tried to assassinate President Trump.
    There was a lot of “would somebody rid me of this troublesome populist” from senior figures.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,915

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
    No. It is still culturally as well as economically conservative on the whole
    It's a good question though. There is something different about Essex (even the nicer bits) that makes it more loyally conservative and Conservative than, say, Surrey.

    Part of the answer might be that it's not quite as posh, but it's not a complete answer. It's not just about the Essex Man stereotype, either.
    https://gails.com/pages/find-us?srsltid=AfmBOop4_83g9_xbfyPhTXk7vJ9BYHKUwjhLIGIdJo0C210gzvzUmw8P
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,861

    On the topic:


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    In conclusion, therefore, and bearing in mind that Trump is preferred on the economy, I would say Harris is currently heading for defeat

    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1826617853308797141

    But in October 2020 Trump was preferred to Biden on the economy in plenty of polls.
    I think his point is about 'quiet' Trumpsters who are hard to poll. She needs to have a higher margin.

    But maybe she will after this week.

    The DNC have a new attack ad out based on the Insurrection.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,674
    "Michelin star restaurant turns prices back 30 years

    One of London's most lauded Michelin star restaurants is turning the clock back on its prices by 30 years next month.

    The nose-to-tail cooking specialists at St John, in Smithfield, will charge diners what they would have paid when the eatery first opened its doors in 1994.

    Celebrating its 30th anniversary, St John will offer the same dishes it served up in the mid-90s for as little as £3.50 (Welsh rarebit, if you were wondering).

    Roast bone marrow and parsley salad will set you back just £4.20, while pheasant and trotter pie comes in at a very reasonable £18 between 9 and 27 September.

    The Michelin Guide describes the restaurant as creating a "joyful experience" with "very little ceremony".

    "As one of the foremost proponents of nose-to-tail cooking, this is the place to try new things," it reads.

    The restaurant puts seasonality "at its core", said the guide, which recommends ordering the warm madeleines for the journey home."

    https://news.sky.com/story/money-news-latest-consumer-skynews-blog-13040934
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,007

    viewcode said:

    "My theory is everybody loves an elite West coast liberal lawyer."

    God love you @TheScreamingEagles , but I admire your ability to keep a straight face... :)

    By November the UK and US elections (and the Tory leadership contest) could all have been won by lawyers.

    That tells you everybody loves a lawyer. What more proof could you want?
    Or hates a lawyer. We have to see the results first ...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,293
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Is the enthusiasm gap enough to overcome the lower propensity of the young and ethnic to vote?

    I think the abortion plebiscites will boost turnout with those demographics, it has in the past.
    Is there a cross-check of which swing states have an abortion vote as well this November anywhere?
    https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/dashboard/ballot-tracker-status-of-abortion-related-state-constitutional-amendment-measures/
    Ta. So the states confirmed (and current poll averages from 270towin if I've read it correctly) are:
    Arizona (Harris +1.4)
    Arkansas (safe Trump)
    Colorado (likely Harris)
    Florida (Trump +5)
    Maryland (safe Harris)
    Missouri (safe Trump)
    Montana (Trump +15)
    Nebraska (safe Trump, NE2 likely Harris)
    Nevada (Trump +0.4)
    New York (Harris +14)
    South Dakota (safe Trump)

    Looking at those, Biden won Arizona and Nevada last time. Florida would be a helluva gain for Harris, but a five point lead looks like a lot to be closed by differential enthusiasm.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,452

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why do the folk who get wound up about the singular “they” never notice its more objectionable political usage ?
    https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1826334089546531308

    They're idiots?

    :)
    See also Vance’s recent repetition of “they” tried to assassinate President Trump.
    There was a lot of “would somebody rid me of this troublesome populist” from senior figures.
    There you go, trying to justify that crap.
    The claim that “they tried to assassinate Donald Trump” - which he made in a speech this week - is simply a lie, and it risks inciting further violence.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,007
    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    @Eabhal

    ...Glyndyfrdwy...

    I know Welsh considers "y" to be a vowel. But if you ignore that precondition, the word "Glyndyfrdwy" is eleven letters long with no vowels.
    W is also a vowel in Welsh.

    It means ‘the valley of the light on the waters of the Dee.’
    I was most interested to be taught how to pronounce Cwm Llwch* ... double aspirates in the second word, too.

    *For those who don't know it, it's a textboiok corrie lochan held back by a late readvance glacial moraine under the highest peak in Brycheiniog.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,832
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why do the folk who get wound up about the singular “they” never notice its more objectionable political usage ?
    https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1826334089546531308

    They're idiots?

    :)
    See also Vance’s recent repetition of “they” tried to assassinate President Trump.
    There was a lot of “would somebody rid me of this troublesome populist” from senior figures.
    There you go, trying to justify that crap.
    The claim that “they tried to assassinate Donald Trump” - which he made in a speech this week - is simply a lie, and it risks inciting further violence.
    There's been more than one assassination attempt against him and the rhetoric of many people verged into 'stochastic terrorism' territory.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,281
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    @Eabhal

    So, today I drove through Llangollen, Glyndyfrdwy and Corwen. These are villages on the A5, quite congested, slow - actually, you wouldn't be going much faster than 20mph through them anyway.

    All three were switched from 30mph to 20mph in September last year. I have confirmed that.

    Only Glyndyfrdwy is marked as a change on your map.

    So it is incomplete, and you should not rely on it.

    This need not be a conspiracy. As I said, the civil servants in Cardiff are thick and know very little about Wales outwith the Valleys.

    But - before you make statements about the small number of places affected, please be aware your data set is flawed.

    So I open Google Streetview for Corwen. Very narrow pavements on the main A5 running through it and at whatever time of day the Google cameras went through actually more pedestrians than cars. It appears to be a slamdunk candidate for a 20 mph limit.
    Did you notice the statue to Owain Glyndwr? He was the last person to travel through Corwen at 30mph (with Henry V on his tail). It's been gridlocked for the last 600 years and a 20mph limit is just a belated recognition of the fact.
  • On topic, the phrase to remember is you can’t put lipstick on a pig. And, when it comes to being a candidate, Harris the proverbial pig.

    She is not someone dynamic and need she is the VP in an unpopular Administration and where voters are increasingly concerned about their economic welfare. Plus living in a world that seems more uncertain. Her track record is, to put it mildly, mixed and, when she has faced genuine competition as opposed to usually her position as a bully pulpit to interrogate
    (as DAs do), she has come up short.

    Now Trump is also a pig but he’s also one that has (1) served as President already (2) seen as better handling the economy and foreign affairs and (3) the plus of many Americans seeing his Presidency as - overall - helping many households, certainly pre-Covid.

    I’m also not sure the DNC will give a big bounce but maybe I’m wrong and this is before tonight’s speech. But look at it so far and it’s like a rehashed version of the Greatest Hits - Bill Clinton, the Obamas, Hillary Clinton. Not exactly looking to the future.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,525

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
    No. It is still culturally as well as economically conservative on the whole
    It's a good question though. There is something different about Essex (even the nicer bits) that makes it more loyally conservative and Conservative than, say, Surrey.

    Part of the answer might be that it's not quite as posh, but it's not a complete answer. It's not just about the Essex Man stereotype, either.
    https://gails.com/pages/find-us?srsltid=AfmBOop4_83g9_xbfyPhTXk7vJ9BYHKUwjhLIGIdJo0C210gzvzUmw8P
    I campaigned for the Liberals in South Essex for fifteen or so years around the 70’s-80’s and have watched politics in Essex before and since. There seemed to be a sea-change in the late eighties/early nineties when previously Labour voters started to vote Conservative. I know, of course, that the old Braintree constituency went Labour in 1997; I was about the move there. That, I think, was an anomaly. I could guess at the reason, but it could be actionable, so I won’t.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,090
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
    The East Coast of England is our Alabama.
    Not all of it, Suffolk Coastal is Labour, North Norfolk LD. Lincolnshire too is fervently rightwing
    Suffolk has three Labour MPs and a Green against only three Tory. Norfolk has four Labour (the two Norwich seats, Norfolk South and Norfolk SW), One LD, One Reform but only three Tory. Cambs has three Lib Dem, three Labour, only two Tories, and even though Lincs has seven Tories it also has three Labour, as well as Tice. This is of course one of the best areas for the Tories...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,915

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
    No. It is still culturally as well as economically conservative on the whole
    It's a good question though. There is something different about Essex (even the nicer bits) that makes it more loyally conservative and Conservative than, say, Surrey.

    Part of the answer might be that it's not quite as posh, but it's not a complete answer. It's not just about the Essex Man stereotype, either.
    https://gails.com/pages/find-us?srsltid=AfmBOop4_83g9_xbfyPhTXk7vJ9BYHKUwjhLIGIdJo0C210gzvzUmw8P
    I campaigned for the Liberals in South Essex for fifteen or so years around the 70’s-80’s and have watched politics in Essex before and since. There seemed to be a sea-change in the late eighties/early nineties when previously Labour voters started to vote Conservative. I know, of course, that the old Braintree constituency went Labour in 1997; I was about the move there. That, I think, was an anomaly. I could guess at the reason, but it could be actionable, so I won’t.
    If only you knew back then all you had to do was open a naice bakery and the town would magically go orange.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    ALASKA 2024 Top Four Primary for US House (At Large)
    > top 4 finishers advance to Ranked Choice general election
    with 88% reported (source NYT)

    Mary Peltola - incumbent
    Democrat 48,576 50.4%
    Nick Begich
    Republican 25,993 27.0%
    Nancy Dahlstrom
    Republican 9,252 20.0%
    Matthew Salisbury
    Republican 602 0.6%
    John Wayne Howe
    Alaskan Independence 544 0.6%
    Eric Hafner
    Democrat 377 0.4%
    Gerald Heikes
    Republican 374 0.4%
    Lady Donna Dutchess
    Nonpartisan 172 0.2%
    Richard Mayers
    Other 170 0.2%
    David Ambrose
    Nonpartisan 136 0.1%
    Richard Grayson
    Other 120 0.1%
    Samuel Claesson
    Nonpartisan 90 0.1%
    Total reported
    96,406

    SSI - note that while Begich has pledged to withdraw from general election race IF he is behind Dahlstrom (endored by Trump & Speaker/Preach Mike Johnson), she has made NO such pledge.

    Looks to me as though Peltola is in good position to win reelection, because while whichever GOPer survives the initial count(s) will benefit from transfers from the Rep(s) who get eliminated, there will also be votes that are untransferable AND which transfer to Peltola.
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why do the folk who get wound up about the singular “they” never notice its more objectionable political usage ?
    https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1826334089546531308

    They're idiots?

    :)
    See also Vance’s recent repetition of “they” tried to assassinate President Trump.
    There was a lot of “would somebody rid me of this troublesome populist” from senior figures.
    There you go, trying to justify that crap.
    The claim that “they tried to assassinate Donald Trump” - which he made in a speech this week - is simply a lie, and it risks inciting further violence.
    There's been more than one assassination attempt against him and the rhetoric of many people verged into 'stochastic terrorism' territory.
    I never understand why many anti-Trumpsters try to deny the logic here.

    If you are equating the man to Hitler - as many did - and saying it would be a catastrophe if he was re-elected, why would there NOT be an assassination attempt made against him? You’ve essentially said the man is pure evil and - implied at the very least and more often stated outright - he needs to be stopped at all costs. Assassination is only the most radical of those options.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,674
    "@TimesRadio

    “This was the beginning of a new life for Mike.”

    Lord Derben remembers his longtime friend Mike Lynch saying, “his companies have put British IT in the forefront… he was a joy to have in the community.”

    📻 http://shorturl.at/sU8Hr | #TimesRadio"

    https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/1826236200233091513
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,536

    ALASKA 2024 Top Four Primary for US House (At Large)
    > top 4 finishers advance to Ranked Choice general election
    with 88% reported (source NYT)

    Mary Peltola - incumbent
    Democrat 48,576 50.4%
    Nick Begich
    Republican 25,993 27.0%
    Nancy Dahlstrom
    Republican 9,252 20.0%
    Matthew Salisbury
    Republican 602 0.6%
    John Wayne Howe
    Alaskan Independence 544 0.6%
    Eric Hafner
    Democrat 377 0.4%
    Gerald Heikes
    Republican 374 0.4%
    Lady Donna Dutchess
    Nonpartisan 172 0.2%
    Richard Mayers
    Other 170 0.2%
    David Ambrose
    Nonpartisan 136 0.1%
    Richard Grayson
    Other 120 0.1%
    Samuel Claesson
    Nonpartisan 90 0.1%
    Total reported
    96,406

    SSI - note that while Begich has pledged to withdraw from general election race IF he is behind Dahlstrom (endored by Trump & Speaker/Preach Mike Johnson), she has made NO such pledge.

    Looks to me as though Peltola is in good position to win reelection, because while whichever GOPer survives the initial count(s) will benefit from transfers from the Rep(s) who get eliminated, there will also be votes that are untransferable AND which transfer to Peltola.

    Lady Donna Dutchess. Ace name
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,525

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    And is California on the East coast?

    To be honest California is now even more liberal and elitist than the East coast. 50 years ago though it was largely GOP and conservative outside San Francisco, certainly a change from the era of Reagan
    https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
    Do you foresee a similar political trajectory for Epping Forest in the future?
    No. It is still culturally as well as economically conservative on the whole
    It's a good question though. There is something different about Essex (even the nicer bits) that makes it more loyally conservative and Conservative than, say, Surrey.

    Part of the answer might be that it's not quite as posh, but it's not a complete answer. It's not just about the Essex Man stereotype, either.
    https://gails.com/pages/find-us?srsltid=AfmBOop4_83g9_xbfyPhTXk7vJ9BYHKUwjhLIGIdJo0C210gzvzUmw8P
    I campaigned for the Liberals in South Essex for fifteen or so years around the 70’s-80’s and have watched politics in Essex before and since. There seemed to be a sea-change in the late eighties/early nineties when previously Labour voters started to vote Conservative. I know, of course, that the old Braintree constituency went Labour in 1997; I was about the move there. That, I think, was an anomaly. I could guess at the reason, but it could be actionable, so I won’t.
    If only you knew back then all you had to do was open a naice bakery and the town would magically go orange.
    Ha ha! I moved to the Greater Braintree area as part of retirement planning. My wife and I had had our fill of retailing over the years.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,536
    We’re travelling to Pwllheli from Durham tomorrow. Be an interesting journey once we get into Wales. Or maybe not.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,327
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why do the folk who get wound up about the singular “they” never notice its more objectionable political usage ?
    https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1826334089546531308

    They're idiots?

    :)
    See also Vance’s recent repetition of “they” tried to assassinate President Trump.
    There was a lot of “would somebody rid me of this troublesome populist” from senior figures.
    There you go, trying to justify that crap.
    The claim that “they tried to assassinate Donald Trump” - which he made in a speech this week - is simply a lie, and it risks inciting further violence.
    After that same 'they' had tried to bankrupt him and put him in prison. There has surely not been such a persecuted individual since Joan of Arc.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why do the folk who get wound up about the singular “they” never notice its more objectionable political usage ?
    https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1826334089546531308

    They're idiots?

    :)
    See also Vance’s recent repetition of “they” tried to assassinate President Trump.
    There was a lot of “would somebody rid me of this troublesome populist” from senior figures.
    There you go, trying to justify that crap.
    The claim that “they tried to assassinate Donald Trump” - which he made in a speech this week - is simply a lie, and it risks inciting further violence.
    After that same 'they' had tried to bankrupt him and put him in prison. There has surely not been such a persecuted individual since Joan of Arc.
    Surely since Job?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,209

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    @Eabhal

    So, today I drove through Llangollen, Glyndyfrdwy and Corwen. These are villages on the A5, quite congested, slow - actually, you wouldn't be going much faster than 20mph through them anyway.

    All three were switched from 30mph to 20mph in September last year. I have confirmed that.

    Only Glyndyfrdwy is marked as a change on your map.

    So it is incomplete, and you should not rely on it.

    This need not be a conspiracy. As I said, the civil servants in Cardiff are thick and know very little about Wales outwith the Valleys.

    But - before you make statements about the small number of places affected, please be aware your data set is flawed.

    So I open Google Streetview for Corwen. Very narrow pavements on the main A5 running through it and at whatever time of day the Google cameras went through actually more pedestrians than cars. It appears to be a slamdunk candidate for a 20 mph limit.
    Did you notice the statue to Owain Glyndwr? He was the last person to travel through Corwen at 30mph (with Henry V on his tail). It's been gridlocked for the last 600 years and a 20mph limit is just a belated recognition of the fact.
    I can imagine people complain there are too many 20 mph stretches, it slows us down, the changes were introduced in a cack handed way, we weren't consulted etc and to feel strongly about it. But these are general complaints. When you get to the specifics it gets harder. Which actual stretches of road are you going to revert, bearing in mind the Welsh government has already been through this exercise once and excluded the most obviously inappropriate roads from the policy?

    I could imagine a lot of huffing and puffing at the review, some token adjustments are made, but no fundamental change happens. The fundamental problem isn't the 20 mph speed limits, rather the roads aren't suitable for the traffic they carry but no-one will be building bypasses any time soon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,476
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    @Eabhal

    So, today I drove through Llangollen, Glyndyfrdwy and Corwen. These are villages on the A5, quite congested, slow - actually, you wouldn't be going much faster than 20mph through them anyway.

    All three were switched from 30mph to 20mph in September last year. I have confirmed that.

    Only Glyndyfrdwy is marked as a change on your map.

    So it is incomplete, and you should not rely on it.

    This need not be a conspiracy. As I said, the civil servants in Cardiff are thick and know very little about Wales outwith the Valleys.

    But - before you make statements about the small number of places affected, please be aware your data set is flawed.

    So I open Google Streetview for Corwen. Very narrow pavements on the main A5 running through it and at whatever time of day the Google cameras went through actually more pedestrians than cars. It appears to be a slamdunk candidate for a 20 mph limit.
    Or bypass…

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,228
    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    @Eabhal

    So, today I drove through Llangollen, Glyndyfrdwy and Corwen. These are villages on the A5, quite congested, slow - actually, you wouldn't be going much faster than 20mph through them anyway.

    All three were switched from 30mph to 20mph in September last year. I have confirmed that.

    Only Glyndyfrdwy is marked as a change on your map.

    So it is incomplete, and you should not rely on it.

    This need not be a conspiracy. As I said, the civil servants in Cardiff are thick and know very little about Wales outwith the Valleys.

    But - before you make statements about the small number of places affected, please be aware your data set is flawed.

    Have you raised a complaint with the Welsh Government then? Because until it's challenged and changed, it remains the evidence on which we have to rely.

    It might be to do with inconsistent reporting by councils too, if you have a scan through the notes. It remains the case that there are hundreds of exceptions detailed on the map.
    I really cannot understand why you just seem to ignore the fact that those living in Wales and using the roads, the politicians from all parties, and the Welsh government itself has concluded it was badly implemented and will change from next month

    Talk about flogging a dead horse and frankly it is becoming boring
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    Typical, I finish my work for the day and England decide to have a work to rule with not more than 2 runs an over.

    Bazball this ain't.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,228
    Taz said:

    We’re travelling to Pwllheli from Durham tomorrow. Be an interesting journey once we get into Wales. Or maybe not.

    If you are travelling down the A55 towards Bangor and Caernarfon it is likely to be very busy as it is the last holiday weekend of the year
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,545
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Democrats have a whole roster of talented public speakers, but Buttigieg is the master of the media interview, both hostile and, like here, friendly.

    “It’s the simple fact that they wrote down their own policies..”
    https://x.com/chyeaok/status/1826629024237678801

    His speech yesterday was once again outstanding. He has a powerful future.
    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/22/2264958/-Pete-Buttigieg-delivers-rhetorical-genius-once-again-at-DNC-2024?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
    He strikes me more as a David Steel type figure - from rising hope to elder statesman with no intervening period.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,536

    Taz said:

    We’re travelling to Pwllheli from Durham tomorrow. Be an interesting journey once we get into Wales. Or maybe not.

    If you are travelling down the A55 towards Bangor and Caernarfon it is likely to be very busy as it is the last holiday weekend of the year
    Thanks Big G, I was more worried about the M62 but I’m resigned to a shit journey and currently wishing we’d never booked this 😂😂
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,228
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    @Eabhal

    So, today I drove through Llangollen, Glyndyfrdwy and Corwen. These are villages on the A5, quite congested, slow - actually, you wouldn't be going much faster than 20mph through them anyway.

    All three were switched from 30mph to 20mph in September last year. I have confirmed that.

    Only Glyndyfrdwy is marked as a change on your map.

    So it is incomplete, and you should not rely on it.

    This need not be a conspiracy. As I said, the civil servants in Cardiff are thick and know very little about Wales outwith the Valleys.

    But - before you make statements about the small number of places affected, please be aware your data set is flawed.

    So I open Google Streetview for Corwen. Very narrow pavements on the main A5 running through it and at whatever time of day the Google cameras went through actually more pedestrians than cars. It appears to be a slamdunk candidate for a 20 mph limit.
    Did you notice the statue to Owain Glyndwr? He was the last person to travel through Corwen at 30mph (with Henry V on his tail). It's been gridlocked for the last 600 years and a 20mph limit is just a belated recognition of the fact.
    I can imagine people complain there are too many 20 mph stretches, it slows us down, the changes were introduced in a cack handed way, we weren't consulted etc and to feel strongly about it. But these are general complaints. When you get to the specifics it gets harder. Which actual stretches of road are you going to revert, bearing in mind the Welsh government has already been through this exercise once and excluded the most obviously inappropriate roads from the policy?

    I could imagine a lot of huffing and puffing at the review, some token adjustments are made, but no fundamental change happens. The fundamental problem isn't the 20 mph speed limits, rather the roads aren't suitable for the traffic they carry but no-one will be building bypasses any time soon.
    The changes will not be token, but widespread across parts of Wales, especially Flintshire, Denbighshire and Conwy and from next month
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,476
    Taz said:

    We’re travelling to Pwllheli from Durham tomorrow. Be an interesting journey once we get into Wales. Or maybe not.

    Journeys in Wales are always interesting.

    Sometimes in good ways.

    Sometimes not.

    In your case, I would expect it to be good ways as you will presumably be coming along the A55 to Bangor, then pick up the new (very good) Caernarfon bypass and then take the road to Afon Wen before having a pleasant amble along the coast of Tremadoc Bay.

    Those are decent roads, although they may get busy in the afternoon.

    The snag is how few roads in Wales are like that. The A55 is I think the only dual carriageway north of Merthyr and west of Rhyl.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,228
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    We’re travelling to Pwllheli from Durham tomorrow. Be an interesting journey once we get into Wales. Or maybe not.

    If you are travelling down the A55 towards Bangor and Caernarfon it is likely to be very busy as it is the last holiday weekend of the year
    Thanks Big G, I was more worried about the M62 but I’m resigned to a shit journey and currently wishing we’d never booked this 😂😂
    North Wales is hugely arrractive to many and the A55 is the main road into and down to the Llyn Peninsula and Anglesey which becomes notoriously busy on fridays before Bank Holidays

    Leave early and hopefully it will be OK

    But most of all, enjoy our wonderful North Wales

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,327
    edited August 22

    On the topic:

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    1h
    In conclusion, therefore, and bearing in mind that Trump is preferred on the economy, I would say Harris is currently heading for defeat

    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1826617853308797141

    He's assuming the polls are (again) significantly underestimating Trump's vote. It's possible but they have made big efforts on this post 2020.

    Eg one (quite amusing) one I read:

    Before, with phone polls, they'd sometimes get through to a Trumper and as soon as said Trumper heard who it was, ie a pollster, they'd go something like, "I'm voting Trump, so fuck off." Then hang up.

    This would not be counted (or would be a DK) on account of 'truncation'. Now it is counted - as a vote for Trump. Which would seem a fair bet.

    They reckon this change alone will remove a chunk of the error. They've done several other tweaks too. So, ok, they might be out yet again - but they could also be out the other way due to overcompensation.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,525

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    We’re travelling to Pwllheli from Durham tomorrow. Be an interesting journey once we get into Wales. Or maybe not.

    If you are travelling down the A55 towards Bangor and Caernarfon it is likely to be very busy as it is the last holiday weekend of the year
    Thanks Big G, I was more worried about the M62 but I’m resigned to a shit journey and currently wishing we’d never booked this 😂😂
    North Wales is hugely arrractive to many and the A55 is the main road into and down to the Llyn Peninsula and Anglesey which becomes notoriously busy on fridays before Bank Holidays

    Leave early and hopefully it will be OK

    But most of all, enjoy our wonderful North Wales

    I hope we shall get back to North Wales at least once more. And also to N Carmarthenshire; I’ve some family history to research.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,281

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Democrats have a whole roster of talented public speakers, but Buttigieg is the master of the media interview, both hostile and, like here, friendly.

    “It’s the simple fact that they wrote down their own policies..”
    https://x.com/chyeaok/status/1826629024237678801

    His speech yesterday was once again outstanding. He has a powerful future.
    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/22/2264958/-Pete-Buttigieg-delivers-rhetorical-genius-once-again-at-DNC-2024?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
    He strikes me more as a David Steel type figure - from rising hope to elder statesman with no intervening period.
    Michael Foot in 1979:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCXcF8L0KTA

    His deconstruction of David Steel starts at 07:00 but the whole speech is worth listening to, like a favourite prog rock LP.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,476
    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    @Eabhal

    So, today I drove through Llangollen, Glyndyfrdwy and Corwen. These are villages on the A5, quite congested, slow - actually, you wouldn't be going much faster than 20mph through them anyway.

    All three were switched from 30mph to 20mph in September last year. I have confirmed that.

    Only Glyndyfrdwy is marked as a change on your map.

    So it is incomplete, and you should not rely on it.

    This need not be a conspiracy. As I said, the civil servants in Cardiff are thick and know very little about Wales outwith the Valleys.

    But - before you make statements about the small number of places affected, please be aware your data set is flawed.

    Have you raised a complaint with the Welsh Government then? Because until it's challenged and changed, it remains the evidence on which we have to rely.

    It might be to do with inconsistent reporting by councils too, if you have a scan through the notes. It remains the case that there are hundreds of exceptions detailed on the map.
    Yes, and there are others, possibly the majority in some areas, that are not there.

    I’m just warning you not to rely on it in the way you do.

    Feel free to complain to the government yourself. Last time I raised a concern about a government department it was to ask why known paedophiles were working for OFSTED. Both the DfE and Ofsted insisted safeguarding was the other organisation’s problem…

    Now that was England.

    In Wales, it’s worse.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,930
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    We’re travelling to Pwllheli from Durham tomorrow. Be an interesting journey once we get into Wales. Or maybe not.

    Journeys in Wales are always interesting.

    Sometimes in good ways.

    Sometimes not.

    In your case, I would expect it to be good ways as you will presumably be coming along the A55 to Bangor, then pick up the new (very good) Caernarfon bypass and then take the road to Afon Wen before having a pleasant amble along the coast of Tremadoc Bay.

    Those are decent roads, although they may get busy in the afternoon.

    The snag is how few roads in Wales are like that. The A55 is I think the only dual carriageway north of Merthyr and west of Rhyl.
    I remember a family holiday at Pwllheli when I was a kid in the very early 70s. Butlins, I think.

    I remember there was a show jumping competition there when we were there with people we had seen on the telly because Horse of the Year show was a big thing then. The other thing I remember is the winding road through the hills to get there during which my dad's cars windscreen wipers packed in. The rain was so heavy he had to stop. Couldn't see a thing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,646
    Phew, England have the 1st innings lead.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,228
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    We’re travelling to Pwllheli from Durham tomorrow. Be an interesting journey once we get into Wales. Or maybe not.

    Journeys in Wales are always interesting.

    Sometimes in good ways.

    Sometimes not.

    In your case, I would expect it to be good ways as you will presumably be coming along the A55 to Bangor, then pick up the new (very good) Caernarfon bypass and then take the road to Afon Wen before having a pleasant amble along the coast of Tremadoc Bay.

    Those are decent roads, although they may get busy in the afternoon.

    The snag is how few roads in Wales are like that. The A55 is I think the only dual carriageway north of Merthyr and west of Rhyl.
    One of the bottlenecks can be where the traffic turns to cross the Britannia Bridge to Anglesey with the traffic continuing down to the Llyn

    As you say the Caernarfon bypass is excellent
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 697
    Jenas sacking top story on BBC news. Is it really a top news item?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,950

    viewcode said:

    "My theory is everybody loves an elite West coast liberal lawyer."

    God love you @TheScreamingEagles , but I admire your ability to keep a straight face... :)

    By November the UK and US elections (and the Tory leadership contest) could all have been won by lawyers.

    That tells you everybody loves a lawyer. What more proof could you want?
    "I don't believe it. I don't believe it! You're meant to come down here and defend me against these characters, and the only one on my side is the blood-sucking lawyer!"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,261
    edited August 22
    SandraMc said:

    Jenas sacking top story on BBC news. Is it really a top news item?

    The BBC loves nothing more than a story about the BBC.
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