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Mind the enthusiasm gap – politicalbetting.com
Mind the enthusiasm gap – politicalbetting.com
NEW: Economist/YouGov Poll, August 17-20% who are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president in NovemberDemocrats: 71%Republicans: 61%https://t.co/UCEt99tmM8 pic.twitter.com/84qtkksOOD
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I'm on holiday and slightly distracted.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/1355623
Whom do I send it to ?
God love you @TheScreamingEagles , but I admire your ability to keep a straight face...
“It’s the simple fact that they wrote down their own policies..”
https://x.com/chyeaok/status/1826629024237678801
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
I think Harris is pretty much nailed on to win the popular vote, just as Hilary did. The EC remains in the TCTC bracket.
Part of the answer might be that it's not quite as posh, but it's not a complete answer. It's not just about the Essex Man stereotype, either.
So, today I drove through Llangollen, Glyndyfrdwy and Corwen. These are villages on the A5, quite congested, slow - actually, you wouldn't be going much faster than 20mph through them anyway.
All three were switched from 30mph to 20mph in September last year. I have confirmed that.
Only Glyndyfrdwy is marked as a change on your map.
So it is incomplete, and you should not rely on it.
This need not be a conspiracy. As I said, the civil servants in Cardiff are thick and know very little about Wales outwith the Valleys.
But - before you make statements about the small number of places affected, please be aware your data set is flawed.
With Labour winning a huge majority on only 34% of the vote it's worth thinking about what changes might be possible over the next decade or so.
If I ever read the phrase "merge in turn" again it will be too soon.
You are supposed to merge in turn. They were not doing that; they weren't allowing the other lane to be usefully used. Because they were selfish arseholes taking advantage of the more timid drivers at the front of the queue.
If there had been the opportunity to squeeze in, everyone from the stationary lane would have done so and we'd have effectively merged early on the wrong lane, wouldn't we? You're happy with that? Um - the inside lane was the lane still moving, and FeersumEnjineeya was correct - they were refusing to merge in turn.
In effect, they were making it so that only one lane was moving and the other was stuck, so the other lane wasn't usable.
EDIT TO ADD: The basic rule works fine - as long as everyone complies and isn't an arsehole. As soon as someone screws it up for everyone, sometimes you have to have an intervention.
It's so easy for some people in cars to turn into selfish arseholes - arguably the lack of any reasonable possibility for someone to pick them up on it allows their inner self to come out, and some people are truly self-centred tossers.
In this case, if someone hadn't done the blocking thing and effectively reset the system so it could work properly again (after he'd passed through after letting the formerly blocked lane to move again, I'd have expected it to zipper properly again). But someone needed to do that in this case.
It means ‘the valley of the light on the waters of the Dee.’
I think the answer actually is Essex is less posh (with a few exceptions like Saffron Walden and Theydon Bois), before Brexit the posher and richer the area the more likely it was to vote Conservative. Post Brexit the more white working class the area and the more pensioners it has the more likely it is to vote Conservative (even with leakage of the former to Reform).
Requires a thick skin to match speeds with the stalled queue as it starts to move again, and to ignore the aggressive drivers coming up behind you - but sometimes it helps to imagine that it’s Barty in that Audi SUV in your rear view mirror.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/8/22/2264958/-Pete-Buttigieg-delivers-rhetorical-genius-once-again-at-DNC-2024?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1826334089546531308
It might be to do with inconsistent reporting by councils too, if you have a scan through the notes. It remains the case that there are hundreds of exceptions detailed on the map.
And Surrey commuters are more likely to be public sector compared to "red braces" City commuters from Essex?
John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
·
1h
In conclusion, therefore, and bearing in mind that Trump is preferred on the economy, I would say Harris is currently heading for defeat
https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1826617853308797141
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy76pdz5152o
That tells you everybody loves a lawyer. What more proof could you want?
Essex is the poorest Home County along with Kent, historically Labour's strongest counties in the Home Counties have been those 2 with the LDs stronger elsewhere in the South East.
But maybe she will after this week.
The DNC have a new attack ad out based on the Insurrection.
One of London's most lauded Michelin star restaurants is turning the clock back on its prices by 30 years next month.
The nose-to-tail cooking specialists at St John, in Smithfield, will charge diners what they would have paid when the eatery first opened its doors in 1994.
Celebrating its 30th anniversary, St John will offer the same dishes it served up in the mid-90s for as little as £3.50 (Welsh rarebit, if you were wondering).
Roast bone marrow and parsley salad will set you back just £4.20, while pheasant and trotter pie comes in at a very reasonable £18 between 9 and 27 September.
The Michelin Guide describes the restaurant as creating a "joyful experience" with "very little ceremony".
"As one of the foremost proponents of nose-to-tail cooking, this is the place to try new things," it reads.
The restaurant puts seasonality "at its core", said the guide, which recommends ordering the warm madeleines for the journey home."
https://news.sky.com/story/money-news-latest-consumer-skynews-blog-13040934
Arizona (Harris +1.4)
Arkansas (safe Trump)
Colorado (likely Harris)
Florida (Trump +5)
Maryland (safe Harris)
Missouri (safe Trump)
Montana (Trump +15)
Nebraska (safe Trump, NE2 likely Harris)
Nevada (Trump +0.4)
New York (Harris +14)
South Dakota (safe Trump)
Looking at those, Biden won Arizona and Nevada last time. Florida would be a helluva gain for Harris, but a five point lead looks like a lot to be closed by differential enthusiasm.
The claim that “they tried to assassinate Donald Trump” - which he made in a speech this week - is simply a lie, and it risks inciting further violence.
*For those who don't know it, it's a textboiok corrie lochan held back by a late readvance glacial moraine under the highest peak in Brycheiniog.
She is not someone dynamic and need she is the VP in an unpopular Administration and where voters are increasingly concerned about their economic welfare. Plus living in a world that seems more uncertain. Her track record is, to put it mildly, mixed and, when she has faced genuine competition as opposed to usually her position as a bully pulpit to interrogate
(as DAs do), she has come up short.
Now Trump is also a pig but he’s also one that has (1) served as President already (2) seen as better handling the economy and foreign affairs and (3) the plus of many Americans seeing his Presidency as - overall - helping many households, certainly pre-Covid.
I’m also not sure the DNC will give a big bounce but maybe I’m wrong and this is before tonight’s speech. But look at it so far and it’s like a rehashed version of the Greatest Hits - Bill Clinton, the Obamas, Hillary Clinton. Not exactly looking to the future.
> top 4 finishers advance to Ranked Choice general election
with 88% reported (source NYT)
Mary Peltola - incumbent
Democrat 48,576 50.4%
Nick Begich
Republican 25,993 27.0%
Nancy Dahlstrom
Republican 9,252 20.0%
Matthew Salisbury
Republican 602 0.6%
John Wayne Howe
Alaskan Independence 544 0.6%
Eric Hafner
Democrat 377 0.4%
Gerald Heikes
Republican 374 0.4%
Lady Donna Dutchess
Nonpartisan 172 0.2%
Richard Mayers
Other 170 0.2%
David Ambrose
Nonpartisan 136 0.1%
Richard Grayson
Other 120 0.1%
Samuel Claesson
Nonpartisan 90 0.1%
Total reported
96,406
SSI - note that while Begich has pledged to withdraw from general election race IF he is behind Dahlstrom (endored by Trump & Speaker/Preach Mike Johnson), she has made NO such pledge.
Looks to me as though Peltola is in good position to win reelection, because while whichever GOPer survives the initial count(s) will benefit from transfers from the Rep(s) who get eliminated, there will also be votes that are untransferable AND which transfer to Peltola.
If you are equating the man to Hitler - as many did - and saying it would be a catastrophe if he was re-elected, why would there NOT be an assassination attempt made against him? You’ve essentially said the man is pure evil and - implied at the very least and more often stated outright - he needs to be stopped at all costs. Assassination is only the most radical of those options.
“This was the beginning of a new life for Mike.”
Lord Derben remembers his longtime friend Mike Lynch saying, “his companies have put British IT in the forefront… he was a joy to have in the community.”
📻 http://shorturl.at/sU8Hr | #TimesRadio"
https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/1826236200233091513
I could imagine a lot of huffing and puffing at the review, some token adjustments are made, but no fundamental change happens. The fundamental problem isn't the 20 mph speed limits, rather the roads aren't suitable for the traffic they carry but no-one will be building bypasses any time soon.
Talk about flogging a dead horse and frankly it is becoming boring
Bazball this ain't.
Sometimes in good ways.
Sometimes not.
In your case, I would expect it to be good ways as you will presumably be coming along the A55 to Bangor, then pick up the new (very good) Caernarfon bypass and then take the road to Afon Wen before having a pleasant amble along the coast of Tremadoc Bay.
Those are decent roads, although they may get busy in the afternoon.
The snag is how few roads in Wales are like that. The A55 is I think the only dual carriageway north of Merthyr and west of Rhyl.
Leave early and hopefully it will be OK
But most of all, enjoy our wonderful North Wales
Eg one (quite amusing) one I read:
Before, with phone polls, they'd sometimes get through to a Trumper and as soon as said Trumper heard who it was, ie a pollster, they'd go something like, "I'm voting Trump, so fuck off." Then hang up.
This would not be counted (or would be a DK) on account of 'truncation'. Now it is counted - as a vote for Trump. Which would seem a fair bet.
They reckon this change alone will remove a chunk of the error. They've done several other tweaks too. So, ok, they might be out yet again - but they could also be out the other way due to overcompensation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCXcF8L0KTA
His deconstruction of David Steel starts at 07:00 but the whole speech is worth listening to, like a favourite prog rock LP.
I’m just warning you not to rely on it in the way you do.
Feel free to complain to the government yourself. Last time I raised a concern about a government department it was to ask why known paedophiles were working for OFSTED. Both the DfE and Ofsted insisted safeguarding was the other organisation’s problem…
Now that was England.
In Wales, it’s worse.
I remember there was a show jumping competition there when we were there with people we had seen on the telly because Horse of the Year show was a big thing then. The other thing I remember is the winding road through the hills to get there during which my dad's cars windscreen wipers packed in. The rain was so heavy he had to stop. Couldn't see a thing.
As you say the Caernarfon bypass is excellent
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13768389/Vlad-hair-day-Putin-mocked-wearing-ear-protectors-upside-shooting-range-visit-avoid-ruffling-thinning-hair-beleaguered-army-forced-fight-Ukrainian-incursion.html