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Will the Ayatollahs decide the US election? – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    kamski said:

    Isn't Musk's public embracing of Trump a bit, well, stupid? Twitter would be more a effective propaganda tool if he kept on pretending to be in favour of free-speech, while letting his platform flood everyone with pro-Trump bullshit.

    The only logical explanation is that Trump really needs Musk's cash, and Musk really is donating substantial sums. But neither of them does much logic so who knows?

    Maybe Musk is worried about Twitter losing crazies to Truth Social?

    (Disclaimer: I shorted DJT stock the moment DJT returned to Twitter.)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,839

    Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    One of the minor disappointments associated with Leon leaving the site, is that we won't have the pleasure of watching him trying to spin this.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4836277-democratic-national-convention-biden-harris/
    ...Biden had a difficult task in an emotionally tough moment.
    He understandably wanted to defend his own record while at the same time making the case for Harris — and striking a tone that was not too melancholy nor mawkish.
    He pulled it off in an address that lasted almost 50 minutes.
    He cast his own presidency as a recovery period from the twin traumas of the Capitol Riot of Jan. 6, 2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic. He wove Harris into his own preferred narrative of recovery, citing her tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act as one example. When the crowd broke out into a chant of “Thank you, Joe,” Biden responded, “Thank you Kamala too.”
    There were plenty of attacks on Trump — as a danger to democracy, a candidate who takes a fundamentally pessimistic view of the United States, and a selfish person who killed a bipartisan border deal earlier this year for political gain.
    The timing of the speech was hardly in Biden’s favor. By the time he started speaking, it was 11:30 p.m. on the East Coast. He finished well after midnight...>/i>

    I hadn’t realised @leon had left. What happened?
    Got into a cat-fight.
    I thought the penny dropped that we were all too thick to engage with such genius.
    That was the official story. Someone also suggested he might have found another paid outlet for his rants, rather than post here for free. Whether there is anything in either story, or what the original row was about, I could not say. Life's too short. I expect Leon will be back eventually.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    One of the minor disappointments associated with Leon leaving the site, is that we won't have the pleasure of watching him trying to spin this.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4836277-democratic-national-convention-biden-harris/
    ...Biden had a difficult task in an emotionally tough moment.
    He understandably wanted to defend his own record while at the same time making the case for Harris — and striking a tone that was not too melancholy nor mawkish.
    He pulled it off in an address that lasted almost 50 minutes.
    He cast his own presidency as a recovery period from the twin traumas of the Capitol Riot of Jan. 6, 2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic. He wove Harris into his own preferred narrative of recovery, citing her tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act as one example. When the crowd broke out into a chant of “Thank you, Joe,” Biden responded, “Thank you Kamala too.”
    There were plenty of attacks on Trump — as a danger to democracy, a candidate who takes a fundamentally pessimistic view of the United States, and a selfish person who killed a bipartisan border deal earlier this year for political gain.
    The timing of the speech was hardly in Biden’s favor. By the time he started speaking, it was 11:30 p.m. on the East Coast. He finished well after midnight...>/i>

    I hadn’t realised @leon had left. What happened?
    He got into a stupid argument about pets and flounced.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    Isn't Musk's public embracing of Trump a bit, well, stupid? Twitter would be more a effective propaganda tool if he kept on pretending to be in favour of free-speech, while letting his platform flood everyone with pro-Trump bullshit.

    The only logical explanation is that Trump really needs Musk's cash, and Musk really is donating substantial sums. But neither of them does much logic so who knows?

    Maybe Musk is worried about Twitter losing crazies to Truth Social?

    (Disclaimer: I shorted DJT stock the moment DJT returned to Twitter.)
    Indeed.

    The more he posts on Twitter, the crazier he looks and the more we short him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015

    Nigelb said:

    One of the minor disappointments associated with Leon leaving the site, is that we won't have the pleasure of watching him trying to spin this.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4836277-democratic-national-convention-biden-harris/
    ...Biden had a difficult task in an emotionally tough moment.
    He understandably wanted to defend his own record while at the same time making the case for Harris — and striking a tone that was not too melancholy nor mawkish.
    He pulled it off in an address that lasted almost 50 minutes.
    He cast his own presidency as a recovery period from the twin traumas of the Capitol Riot of Jan. 6, 2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic. He wove Harris into his own preferred narrative of recovery, citing her tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act as one example. When the crowd broke out into a chant of “Thank you, Joe,” Biden responded, “Thank you Kamala too.”
    There were plenty of attacks on Trump — as a danger to democracy, a candidate who takes a fundamentally pessimistic view of the United States, and a selfish person who killed a bipartisan border deal earlier this year for political gain.
    The timing of the speech was hardly in Biden’s favor. By the time he started speaking, it was 11:30 p.m. on the East Coast. He finished well after midnight...>/i>

    R4 had a good try.
    Justin Webb: the Dems hid Biden away from prime time.
    Sara Smith: Biden sounded angry and ungracious.
    The effort was rather spoiled by their reporter on the spot Emma Vardy, who actually reports.
    After which Webb shut up a bit.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189
    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    Isn't Musk's public embracing of Trump a bit, well, stupid? Twitter would be more a effective propaganda tool if he kept on pretending to be in favour of free-speech, while letting his platform flood everyone with pro-Trump bullshit.

    The only logical explanation is that Trump really needs Musk's cash, and Musk really is donating substantial sums. But neither of them does much logic so who knows?

    Maybe Musk is worried about Twitter losing crazies to Truth Social?

    (Disclaimer: I shorted DJT stock the moment DJT returned to Twitter.)
    True, I forgot that Truth Social was still going
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,361
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    One of the minor disappointments associated with Leon leaving the site, is that we won't have the pleasure of watching him trying to spin this.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4836277-democratic-national-convention-biden-harris/
    ...Biden had a difficult task in an emotionally tough moment.
    He understandably wanted to defend his own record while at the same time making the case for Harris — and striking a tone that was not too melancholy nor mawkish.
    He pulled it off in an address that lasted almost 50 minutes.
    He cast his own presidency as a recovery period from the twin traumas of the Capitol Riot of Jan. 6, 2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic. He wove Harris into his own preferred narrative of recovery, citing her tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act as one example. When the crowd broke out into a chant of “Thank you, Joe,” Biden responded, “Thank you Kamala too.”
    There were plenty of attacks on Trump — as a danger to democracy, a candidate who takes a fundamentally pessimistic view of the United States, and a selfish person who killed a bipartisan border deal earlier this year for political gain.
    The timing of the speech was hardly in Biden’s favor. By the time he started speaking, it was 11:30 p.m. on the East Coast. He finished well after midnight...>/i>

    I hadn’t realised @leon had left. What happened?
    He got into a stupid argument about pets and flounced.
    I honestly never thought it would be pets that would see Leon depart.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    .
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    One of the minor disappointments associated with Leon leaving the site, is that we won't have the pleasure of watching him trying to spin this.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4836277-democratic-national-convention-biden-harris/
    ...Biden had a difficult task in an emotionally tough moment.
    He understandably wanted to defend his own record while at the same time making the case for Harris — and striking a tone that was not too melancholy nor mawkish.
    He pulled it off in an address that lasted almost 50 minutes.
    He cast his own presidency as a recovery period from the twin traumas of the Capitol Riot of Jan. 6, 2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic. He wove Harris into his own preferred narrative of recovery, citing her tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act as one example. When the crowd broke out into a chant of “Thank you, Joe,” Biden responded, “Thank you Kamala too.”
    There were plenty of attacks on Trump — as a danger to democracy, a candidate who takes a fundamentally pessimistic view of the United States, and a selfish person who killed a bipartisan border deal earlier this year for political gain.
    The timing of the speech was hardly in Biden’s favor. By the time he started speaking, it was 11:30 p.m. on the East Coast. He finished well after midnight...>/i>

    I hadn’t realised @leon had left. What happened?
    He got into a stupid argument about pets and flounced.
    That’s a shame. I hope he is ok. He wrote several times about how this site helped him work through some troubled personal moments.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,186
    Taz said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    One of the minor disappointments associated with Leon leaving the site, is that we won't have the pleasure of watching him trying to spin this.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4836277-democratic-national-convention-biden-harris/
    ...Biden had a difficult task in an emotionally tough moment.
    He understandably wanted to defend his own record while at the same time making the case for Harris — and striking a tone that was not too melancholy nor mawkish.
    He pulled it off in an address that lasted almost 50 minutes.
    He cast his own presidency as a recovery period from the twin traumas of the Capitol Riot of Jan. 6, 2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic. He wove Harris into his own preferred narrative of recovery, citing her tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act as one example. When the crowd broke out into a chant of “Thank you, Joe,” Biden responded, “Thank you Kamala too.”
    There were plenty of attacks on Trump — as a danger to democracy, a candidate who takes a fundamentally pessimistic view of the United States, and a selfish person who killed a bipartisan border deal earlier this year for political gain.
    The timing of the speech was hardly in Biden’s favor. By the time he started speaking, it was 11:30 p.m. on the East Coast. He finished well after midnight...>/i>

    I hadn’t realised @leon had left. What happened?
    He got into a stupid argument about pets and flounced.
    I honestly never thought it would be pets that would see Leon depart.
    Something about cats having superior intelligence to 96.8% of @SeanT s, wasn’t it?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,839
    edited August 20

    I must be in a small minority who think William Hague's campaign to "save the pound" at the 2001 election was logical based on the evidence available at the time, that a 2nd Labour term would probably lead us into joining the Euro.

    It failed for the same reasons the Liberal Democrats did with their "Stop Brexit" manifesto in 2019, and because Blair promised a referendum on joining the Euro in any event.

    That doesn't mean strategically it was a bad move: it could easily have yielded 20-30 extra seats on a different day, and the alternative might have been to lose seats and get virtually no votes at all.

    There wasn't a huge amount else for Hague for run on at the time given he was nowhere near a serious challenger for an alternative administration.

    Of course Hague's save the pound campaign was damn stupid. Gordon Brown had already killed off any prospect of joining the Euro with his five tests, and voters knew that.
    Oh don't be silly. The five tests were so subjective Brown could just say "yes they've been met" and we could have joined the Euro, with catastrophic results when the 2007 recession hit combining that with Brown's overspending.

    It was when Blair promised a referendum, not Brown's tests, that our prospects of joining the Euro faded.
    Yeah, back in the real world, Brown's five tests ruled out joining. They were evaluated at least twice by the Treasury and, surprise, surprise, we failed each time. Heck, we did not even meet the Maastricht criterion of ERM membership, and I think the public might have noticed any move to join.

    God alone knows what CCHQ was smoking to fight an election on an issue everyone knew had been resolved. Worse, there were complaints at the time of local associations being pressed to report exaggerated numbers signing petitions. It was a Potemkin campaign. What next? LotO Kemi in 2029 to oppose sending British astronauts to Venus?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    moonshine said:

    .

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    One of the minor disappointments associated with Leon leaving the site, is that we won't have the pleasure of watching him trying to spin this.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4836277-democratic-national-convention-biden-harris/
    ...Biden had a difficult task in an emotionally tough moment.
    He understandably wanted to defend his own record while at the same time making the case for Harris — and striking a tone that was not too melancholy nor mawkish.
    He pulled it off in an address that lasted almost 50 minutes.
    He cast his own presidency as a recovery period from the twin traumas of the Capitol Riot of Jan. 6, 2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic. He wove Harris into his own preferred narrative of recovery, citing her tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act as one example. When the crowd broke out into a chant of “Thank you, Joe,” Biden responded, “Thank you Kamala too.”
    There were plenty of attacks on Trump — as a danger to democracy, a candidate who takes a fundamentally pessimistic view of the United States, and a selfish person who killed a bipartisan border deal earlier this year for political gain.
    The timing of the speech was hardly in Biden’s favor. By the time he started speaking, it was 11:30 p.m. on the East Coast. He finished well after midnight...>/i>

    I hadn’t realised @leon had left. What happened?
    He got into a stupid argument about pets and flounced.
    That’s a shame. I hope he is ok. He wrote several times about how this site helped him work through some troubled personal moments.
    It got him through that awkward bout of Putin worship for sure.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015

    Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    One of the minor disappointments associated with Leon leaving the site, is that we won't have the pleasure of watching him trying to spin this.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4836277-democratic-national-convention-biden-harris/
    ...Biden had a difficult task in an emotionally tough moment.
    He understandably wanted to defend his own record while at the same time making the case for Harris — and striking a tone that was not too melancholy nor mawkish.
    He pulled it off in an address that lasted almost 50 minutes.
    He cast his own presidency as a recovery period from the twin traumas of the Capitol Riot of Jan. 6, 2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic. He wove Harris into his own preferred narrative of recovery, citing her tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act as one example. When the crowd broke out into a chant of “Thank you, Joe,” Biden responded, “Thank you Kamala too.”
    There were plenty of attacks on Trump — as a danger to democracy, a candidate who takes a fundamentally pessimistic view of the United States, and a selfish person who killed a bipartisan border deal earlier this year for political gain.
    The timing of the speech was hardly in Biden’s favor. By the time he started speaking, it was 11:30 p.m. on the East Coast. He finished well after midnight...>/i>

    I hadn’t realised @leon had left. What happened?
    Got into a cat-fight.
    I thought the penny dropped that we were all too thick to engage with such genius.
    That was the official story. Someone also suggested he might have found another paid outlet for his rants, rather than post here for free. Whether there is anything in either story, or what the original row was about, I could not say. Life's too short. I expect Leon will be back eventually.
    I believe he said he's starting up on Substack.
    Good luck to him - can pay well if you can attract a readership.
    If he's serious about it, I expect he'll be too busy to require our entertainment for a while.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,632
    I quite like presenteeism. I'm currently sat in the office doing absolutely nothing but my manager reckons I'm doing a lot more than the grafters WFH. A major advantage of not having children, pets etc

    Free coffee, showers and heating (lol - August in Scotland) is another incentive.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569
    Eabhal said:

    I quite like presenteeism. I'm currently sat in the office doing absolutely nothing but my manager reckons I'm doing a lot more than the grafters WFH. A major advantage of not having children, pets etc

    Free coffee, showers and heating (lol - August in Scotland) is another incentive.

    There’s advantages and disadvantages to most work setups and arrangements. Things that work for some might be terrible for others.

    The problem is that those making the decisions on such things appear much more driven by dogmatism than pragmatism.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,687
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    One of the minor disappointments associated with Leon leaving the site, is that we won't have the pleasure of watching him trying to spin this.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4836277-democratic-national-convention-biden-harris/
    ...Biden had a difficult task in an emotionally tough moment.
    He understandably wanted to defend his own record while at the same time making the case for Harris — and striking a tone that was not too melancholy nor mawkish.
    He pulled it off in an address that lasted almost 50 minutes.
    He cast his own presidency as a recovery period from the twin traumas of the Capitol Riot of Jan. 6, 2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic. He wove Harris into his own preferred narrative of recovery, citing her tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act as one example. When the crowd broke out into a chant of “Thank you, Joe,” Biden responded, “Thank you Kamala too.”
    There were plenty of attacks on Trump — as a danger to democracy, a candidate who takes a fundamentally pessimistic view of the United States, and a selfish person who killed a bipartisan border deal earlier this year for political gain.
    The timing of the speech was hardly in Biden’s favor. By the time he started speaking, it was 11:30 p.m. on the East Coast. He finished well after midnight...>/i>

    I hadn’t realised @leon had left. What happened?
    Got into a cat-fight.
    I thought the penny dropped that we were all too thick to engage with such genius.
    That was the official story. Someone also suggested he might have found another paid outlet for his rants, rather than post here for free. Whether there is anything in either story, or what the original row was about, I could not say. Life's too short. I expect Leon will be back eventually.
    I believe he said he's starting up on Substack.
    Good luck to him - can pay well if you can attract a readership.
    If he's serious about it, I expect he'll be too busy to require our entertainment for a while.
    Something has appeared on Substack starting 13th August which may or may not be related to @Leon

    I couldn't possibly say.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,839
    Eabhal said:

    I quite like presenteeism. I'm currently sat in the office doing absolutely nothing but my manager reckons I'm doing a lot more than the grafters WFH. A major advantage of not having children, pets etc

    Free coffee, showers and heating (lol - August in Scotland) is another incentive.

    I generally used to go into the office on particularly hot days, to enjoy free air-conditioning.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,774
    Mr. Sandpit, aye. The psychology of the individual and nature of the work together determine whether WFH can work well or terribly, or be in between.

    I love the absence of a commute and flexible schedule.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,839
    edited August 20
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    I quite like presenteeism. I'm currently sat in the office doing absolutely nothing but my manager reckons I'm doing a lot more than the grafters WFH. A major advantage of not having children, pets etc

    Free coffee, showers and heating (lol - August in Scotland) is another incentive.

    There’s advantages and disadvantages to most work setups and arrangements. Things that work for some might be terrible for others.

    The problem is that those making the decisions on such things appear much more driven by dogmatism than pragmatism.
    In 2012, Londoners were gently encouraged to WFH to reduce congestion during the Olympics. Our management quickly spotted they could sell some buildings if the arrangement was made permanent.

    More recently, the last Conservative government (that has a nice ring to it!) took the same approach, quietly selling offices whilst permitting Jacob Rees-Mogg to rail against civil servants WFH in order to distract the public. The truth is that if WFH ended tomorrow, there'd be nowhere to accommodate civil servants or other office workers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569
    edited August 20
    A long thread on why Russian conscripts are waving their white flags in huge numbers.

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1825452740501282870.html

    TL:DR they’re treated as slaves, have almost no miltary training nor functional equipment, are kept hungry and sick - and those are the positive highlights of their service, before the rape and torture starts.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,839
    Eating ice lollies 'should be part of school curriculum', experts urge
    https://news.sky.com/story/eating-ice-lollies-should-be-part-of-school-curriculum-experts-urge-13200065
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    Pertinent, in light of what we've been discussing:

    Biden’s age-related infirmities were nothing compared to Republican nominee Donald Trump’s. Prone to stumbling over words and intermittently forgetful, Biden appeared unlikely to carry the burdens of the presidency for another term. Yet when confronted with political reality, he acted appropriately. History will record it as among his finest hours.

    Trump, on the other hand, has gone completely around the bend. Some apparent combination of senile dementia and mental illness has rendered him totally unfit for public office. To put it bluntly, the man has lost his marbles. He can no longer follow the plot or distinguish fantasy from reality. Maybe surviving an assassination attempt affected him, but it appears that the prospect of losing an election to a Black woman is more than his diseased ego can bear.


    https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2024/08/16/donald-trump-mental-issues-lost-his-marbles-republicans-kamala-harris-helicopter-ride-gene-lyons
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,242

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    One of the minor disappointments associated with Leon leaving the site, is that we won't have the pleasure of watching him trying to spin this.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4836277-democratic-national-convention-biden-harris/
    ...Biden had a difficult task in an emotionally tough moment.
    He understandably wanted to defend his own record while at the same time making the case for Harris — and striking a tone that was not too melancholy nor mawkish.
    He pulled it off in an address that lasted almost 50 minutes.
    He cast his own presidency as a recovery period from the twin traumas of the Capitol Riot of Jan. 6, 2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic. He wove Harris into his own preferred narrative of recovery, citing her tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act as one example. When the crowd broke out into a chant of “Thank you, Joe,” Biden responded, “Thank you Kamala too.”
    There were plenty of attacks on Trump — as a danger to democracy, a candidate who takes a fundamentally pessimistic view of the United States, and a selfish person who killed a bipartisan border deal earlier this year for political gain.
    The timing of the speech was hardly in Biden’s favor. By the time he started speaking, it was 11:30 p.m. on the East Coast. He finished well after midnight...>/i>

    I hadn’t realised @leon had left. What happened?
    Got into a cat-fight.
    I thought the penny dropped that we were all too thick to engage with such genius.
    That was the official story. Someone also suggested he might have found another paid outlet for his rants, rather than post here for free. Whether there is anything in either story, or what the original row was about, I could not say. Life's too short. I expect Leon will be back eventually.
    I believe he said he's starting up on Substack.
    Good luck to him - can pay well if you can attract a readership.
    If he's serious about it, I expect he'll be too busy to require our entertainment for a while.
    Something has appeared on Substack starting 13th August which may or may not be related to @Leon

    I couldn't possibly say.
    "Come lunchtime we stop: for a cruise on Corroboree Billabong, with its 200 species of bird, from cormorants, to egrets and ospreys, to huge red-black jibaru storks which delicately walk the reeds, hesitantly placing their feet in just the right spot, like inexperienced typists selecting the right letter. "

    Rather good, I thought.

    As an editor it is my life's work to bugger about with other people's overwrought prose, but I'd have let that one squeak through.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,409

    Fellas, Leon has gone. Some of you have got what you wanted. It's time to move on. Find someone else to moan about.

    I suspect (and hope) he'll be back in various guises.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,870

    ydoethur said:


    Greeting from Hamburg as Starmer drives yet another nail in UK productivity

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/08/19/keir-starmer-backs-working-from-home-culture-presenteeism/

    Because multi-hour commutes and open plan offices are really, really great for productivity.
    There are a whole CBI full of people who might not agree with you.

    But on the other hand if theyre all going to work at home we can remove London allowances, that might pepe the place up.
    Frankly I don't think the CBI are people to judge. Senior people at my company are demanding a min 2 days at the office, apart from the team I am on who all work from home and we keep getting passed work the non wfh teams have failed at. We are by far the most productive team they have
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,808

    Eating ice lollies 'should be part of school curriculum', experts urge
    https://news.sky.com/story/eating-ice-lollies-should-be-part-of-school-curriculum-experts-urge-13200065

    Not sure we can afford it when we have a spending freeze.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,808

    Fellas, Leon has gone. Some of you have got what you wanted. It's time to move on. Find someone else to moan about.

    First they came for Little Chef, then Wimpy and Chilango, and now your telling me Leon has gone too? This surely marks the start of the end of the world.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350

    Eating ice lollies 'should be part of school curriculum', experts urge
    https://news.sky.com/story/eating-ice-lollies-should-be-part-of-school-curriculum-experts-urge-13200065

    Not sure we can afford it when we have a spending freeze.
    Take a chill pill, it will be fine.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,413

    Eating ice lollies 'should be part of school curriculum', experts urge
    https://news.sky.com/story/eating-ice-lollies-should-be-part-of-school-curriculum-experts-urge-13200065

    Sometimes, though it goes directly against the grain, one is inclined to agree with Michael Gove!

    Separately, and on topic, the Ayatollahs did for Jimmy Carter. Sadly.
    Although IIRC Reagan was in a strong position anyway.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,870
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    One of the minor disappointments associated with Leon leaving the site, is that we won't have the pleasure of watching him trying to spin this.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4836277-democratic-national-convention-biden-harris/
    ...Biden had a difficult task in an emotionally tough moment.
    He understandably wanted to defend his own record while at the same time making the case for Harris — and striking a tone that was not too melancholy nor mawkish.
    He pulled it off in an address that lasted almost 50 minutes.
    He cast his own presidency as a recovery period from the twin traumas of the Capitol Riot of Jan. 6, 2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic. He wove Harris into his own preferred narrative of recovery, citing her tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act as one example. When the crowd broke out into a chant of “Thank you, Joe,” Biden responded, “Thank you Kamala too.”
    There were plenty of attacks on Trump — as a danger to democracy, a candidate who takes a fundamentally pessimistic view of the United States, and a selfish person who killed a bipartisan border deal earlier this year for political gain.
    The timing of the speech was hardly in Biden’s favor. By the time he started speaking, it was 11:30 p.m. on the East Coast. He finished well after midnight...>/i>

    I hadn’t realised @leon had left. What happened?
    He got into a stupid argument about pets and flounced.
    He didn't get involved he started a stupid argument about pets
  • I must be in a small minority who think William Hague's campaign to "save the pound" at the 2001 election was logical based on the evidence available at the time, that a 2nd Labour term would probably lead us into joining the Euro.

    It failed for the same reasons the Liberal Democrats did with their "Stop Brexit" manifesto in 2019, and because Blair promised a referendum on joining the Euro in any event.

    That doesn't mean strategically it was a bad move: it could easily have yielded 20-30 extra seats on a different day, and the alternative might have been to lose seats and get virtually no votes at all.

    There wasn't a huge amount else for Hague for run on at the time given he was nowhere near a serious challenger for an alternative administration.

    Of course Hague's save the pound campaign was damn stupid. Gordon Brown had already killed off any prospect of joining the Euro with his five tests, and voters knew that.
    Oh don't be silly. The five tests were so subjective Brown could just say "yes they've been met" and we could have joined the Euro, with catastrophic results when the 2007 recession hit combining that with Brown's overspending.

    It was when Blair promised a referendum, not Brown's tests, that our prospects of joining the Euro faded.
    Yeah, back in the real world, Brown's five tests ruled out joining. They were evaluated at least twice by the Treasury and, surprise, surprise, we failed each time. Heck, we did not even meet the Maastricht criterion of ERM membership, and I think the public might have noticed any move to join.

    God alone knows what CCHQ was smoking to fight an election on an issue everyone knew had been resolved. Worse, there were complaints at the time of local associations being pressed to report exaggerated numbers signing petitions. It was a Potemkin campaign. What next? LotO Kemi in 2029 to oppose sending British astronauts to Venus?
    It was clear by the 2001 election that we were not going to join the Euro. If that had become an issue in the campaign there is not doubt Blair would have done much less well than he did. Save the Pound was a success story and it worked.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,093
    I don't think a war would help Trump (he's past his sell by) but good piece @rottenborough.
  • Fellas, Leon has gone. Some of you have got what you wanted. It's time to move on. Find someone else to moan about.

    First they came for Little Chef, then Wimpy and Chilango, and now your telling me Leon has gone too? This surely marks the start of the end of the world.
    I like their beetroot ketchup.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,157
    Eabhal said:

    I quite like presenteeism. I'm currently sat in the office doing absolutely nothing but my manager reckons I'm doing a lot more than the grafters WFH. A major advantage of not having children, pets etc

    Free coffee, showers and heating (lol - August in Scotland) is another incentive.

    Things looking a bit warmer up on Unst the other day.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,687
    kinabalu said:

    I don't think a war would help Trump (he's past his sell by) but good piece @rottenborough.

    Thanks.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,103
    edited August 20
    Good morning everyone.

    Can I re-recommend the (20 minute) recent conversation between Mike Lynch and Evan Davis re: the problems of the USA legal system; it really is top notch as a thought-provoker.

    A number of details telling of differences, such as *witnesses* being threatened by prosecutors with 20 year prison sentences to persuade testimony, and the way small offences can be stretched to be very large (one of my doubts on the detail of some aspects of the Trump trial) eg via wire-fraud and RICO laws.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0jkc9l9

    For me, following the Trump trials in detail has been quite a further education; I've always had doubts about the "hardly anything ever reaches trial" system, probably starting from youthful listening to Alistair Cooke. This programme added a personal narrative.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,600
    On topic.

    Iran was behind a recent hack targeting Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, US security agencies said on Monday, accusing Tehran of seeking to influence the 2024 election.

    The statement from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) confirmed the Trump campaign claim from earlier this month that it had been targeted, potentially by Iran.

    “We have observed increasingly aggressive Iranian activity during this election cycle, specifically involving influence operations targeting the American public and cyber operations targeting presidential campaigns,” the security agencies said.

    “This includes the recently reported activities to compromise former President Trump’s campaign, which the (intelligence community) attributes to Iran,” they added.

    The intelligence community “is confident that the Iranians have through social engineering and other efforts sought access to individuals with direct access to the presidential campaigns of both political parties. Such activity, including thefts and disclosures, are intended to influence the US election process.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/08/20/iran-blamed-trump-campaign-hack-us-intelligence-election/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
    Sandpit said:

    A long thread on why Russian conscripts are waving their white flags in huge numbers.

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1825452740501282870.html

    TL:DR they’re treated as slaves, have almost no miltary training nor functional equipment, are kept hungry and sick - and those are the positive highlights of their service, before the rape and torture starts.

    And they know they're unlikely to be murdered in cold blood by Ukraine.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    Eating ice lollies 'should be part of school curriculum', experts urge
    https://news.sky.com/story/eating-ice-lollies-should-be-part-of-school-curriculum-experts-urge-13200065

    Sometimes, though it goes directly against the grain, one is inclined to agree with Michael Gove!

    Separately, and on topic, the Ayatollahs did for Jimmy Carter. Sadly.
    Although IIRC Reagan was in a strong position anyway.
    The GOP in cahoots with Iran as well.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,687
    ydoethur said:

    Pertinent, in light of what we've been discussing:

    Biden’s age-related infirmities were nothing compared to Republican nominee Donald Trump’s. Prone to stumbling over words and intermittently forgetful, Biden appeared unlikely to carry the burdens of the presidency for another term. Yet when confronted with political reality, he acted appropriately. History will record it as among his finest hours.

    Trump, on the other hand, has gone completely around the bend. Some apparent combination of senile dementia and mental illness has rendered him totally unfit for public office. To put it bluntly, the man has lost his marbles. He can no longer follow the plot or distinguish fantasy from reality. Maybe surviving an assassination attempt affected him, but it appears that the prospect of losing an election to a Black woman is more than his diseased ego can bear.


    https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2024/08/16/donald-trump-mental-issues-lost-his-marbles-republicans-kamala-harris-helicopter-ride-gene-lyons

    Indeed. The huge worry is that even if there is no war with Iran the US voters will be stupid enough to put a man who has obviously lost the plot mentally back into office because or erm... price of McDonalds and gas was less when he was in office.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    Eating ice lollies 'should be part of school curriculum', experts urge
    https://news.sky.com/story/eating-ice-lollies-should-be-part-of-school-curriculum-experts-urge-13200065

    Not sure we can afford it when we have a spending freeze.
    There are 99 reasons to look for a better alternative.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,587

    mwadams said:

    ydoethur said:

    SKS fans can you pass this on to austerity Reeves.
    Austerity measures don’t work.
    The last round ended up tripling the national debt.
    Any serious legitimate effort to ‘balance the books’ would involve rich people paying more.
    Austerity hits only the poor and has zero positive effect.

    My personal allowance was stolen.
    You would have been able to report that to the police had austerity not cut all those police officers
    I thought you approved of defunding the police?
    No
    I am in favour of defunding the rich though
    Define 'rich'.
    Anyone who uses London City Airport.
    Whereas "very rich" is anyone who takes the helicopter to Marshalls in Cambridge, and picks up the private Dreamliner to wherever from there.
    A mate of mine once got a helicopter to Marshalls, then dropped in to see me at my workplace on Newmarket Road, just down the road. But he was on a business trip with BAE, so he wasn't paying for the 'copter.

    (I always wanted to see a 747 come in to Marshalls, but never managed it.)
    A friend of mine was contracting in one of those offices at the end of the runway, and he says it was a "surprise" when that happened!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015

    kinabalu said:

    I don't think a war would help Trump (he's past his sell by) but good piece @rottenborough.

    Thanks.

    Agreed.

    While I don't recommend this to anyone else, with the exception of a sizeable bet on Biden last time round, my Betfair account has traded solely on part of my profits from Obama's first election in 2008.

    For the first time in four years, I've deposited a bit more cash to the account in order to increase my Harris bet, as I think her odds ought to be significantly shorter than evens at this point.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189

    On topic.

    Iran was behind a recent hack targeting Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, US security agencies said on Monday, accusing Tehran of seeking to influence the 2024 election.

    The statement from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) confirmed the Trump campaign claim from earlier this month that it had been targeted, potentially by Iran.

    “We have observed increasingly aggressive Iranian activity during this election cycle, specifically involving influence operations targeting the American public and cyber operations targeting presidential campaigns,” the security agencies said.

    “This includes the recently reported activities to compromise former President Trump’s campaign, which the (intelligence community) attributes to Iran,” they added.

    The intelligence community “is confident that the Iranians have through social engineering and other efforts sought access to individuals with direct access to the presidential campaigns of both political parties. Such activity, including thefts and disclosures, are intended to influence the US election process.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/08/20/iran-blamed-trump-campaign-hack-us-intelligence-election/

    It's interesting that the main stream media don't report the contents of those hacks because Iran, whereas in 2016 contents of Russian hacks of the Democrats were the biggest news throughout the campaign. MSM are again conspiring to help Trump because he helps their circulation/viewing numbers, and they're desperate to keep him afloat!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,539

    On topic.

    Iran was behind a recent hack targeting Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, US security agencies said on Monday, accusing Tehran of seeking to influence the 2024 election.

    The statement from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) confirmed the Trump campaign claim from earlier this month that it had been targeted, potentially by Iran.

    “We have observed increasingly aggressive Iranian activity during this election cycle, specifically involving influence operations targeting the American public and cyber operations targeting presidential campaigns,” the security agencies said.

    “This includes the recently reported activities to compromise former President Trump’s campaign, which the (intelligence community) attributes to Iran,” they added.

    The intelligence community “is confident that the Iranians have through social engineering and other efforts sought access to individuals with direct access to the presidential campaigns of both political parties. Such activity, including thefts and disclosures, are intended to influence the US election process.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/08/20/iran-blamed-trump-campaign-hack-us-intelligence-election/

    Iran creating AI Swifties?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,687
    Ukraine:

    Civilians with small children in their arms and lugging heavy suitcases have fled from Ukraine’s eastern city of Pokrovsk, where the Russian army was bearing down fast despite a lightning Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, Associated Press reports.

    Local authorities said Russian forces were advancing so quickly that families were under orders to leave the city and other nearby towns and villages starting Tuesday.

    Guardian news blog
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,539
    kamski said:

    On topic.

    Iran was behind a recent hack targeting Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, US security agencies said on Monday, accusing Tehran of seeking to influence the 2024 election.

    The statement from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) confirmed the Trump campaign claim from earlier this month that it had been targeted, potentially by Iran.

    “We have observed increasingly aggressive Iranian activity during this election cycle, specifically involving influence operations targeting the American public and cyber operations targeting presidential campaigns,” the security agencies said.

    “This includes the recently reported activities to compromise former President Trump’s campaign, which the (intelligence community) attributes to Iran,” they added.

    The intelligence community “is confident that the Iranians have through social engineering and other efforts sought access to individuals with direct access to the presidential campaigns of both political parties. Such activity, including thefts and disclosures, are intended to influence the US election process.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/08/20/iran-blamed-trump-campaign-hack-us-intelligence-election/

    It's interesting that the main stream media don't report the contents of those hacks because Iran, whereas in 2016 contents of Russian hacks of the Democrats were the biggest news throughout the campaign. MSM are again conspiring to help Trump because he helps their circulation/viewing numbers, and they're desperate to keep him afloat!!
    Although, once it is clear that Trump is going to lose, his circling the drain will be the only story they want to report...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
    mwadams said:

    mwadams said:

    ydoethur said:

    SKS fans can you pass this on to austerity Reeves.
    Austerity measures don’t work.
    The last round ended up tripling the national debt.
    Any serious legitimate effort to ‘balance the books’ would involve rich people paying more.
    Austerity hits only the poor and has zero positive effect.

    My personal allowance was stolen.
    You would have been able to report that to the police had austerity not cut all those police officers
    I thought you approved of defunding the police?
    No
    I am in favour of defunding the rich though
    Define 'rich'.
    Anyone who uses London City Airport.
    Whereas "very rich" is anyone who takes the helicopter to Marshalls in Cambridge, and picks up the private Dreamliner to wherever from there.
    A mate of mine once got a helicopter to Marshalls, then dropped in to see me at my workplace on Newmarket Road, just down the road. But he was on a business trip with BAE, so he wasn't paying for the 'copter.

    (I always wanted to see a 747 come in to Marshalls, but never managed it.)
    A friend of mine was contracting in one of those offices at the end of the runway, and he says it was a "surprise" when that happened!
    Aren't they planning to build on it, and move the operation to Cranfield ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,687

    Eating ice lollies 'should be part of school curriculum', experts urge
    https://news.sky.com/story/eating-ice-lollies-should-be-part-of-school-curriculum-experts-urge-13200065

    Sometimes, though it goes directly against the grain, one is inclined to agree with Michael Gove!

    Separately, and on topic, the Ayatollahs did for Jimmy Carter. Sadly.
    Although IIRC Reagan was in a strong position anyway.
    The GOP in cahoots with Iran as well.
    Didn't they engineer some kind of delay on hostages behind Carter's back?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,157
    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,839

    I must be in a small minority who think William Hague's campaign to "save the pound" at the 2001 election was logical based on the evidence available at the time, that a 2nd Labour term would probably lead us into joining the Euro.

    It failed for the same reasons the Liberal Democrats did with their "Stop Brexit" manifesto in 2019, and because Blair promised a referendum on joining the Euro in any event.

    That doesn't mean strategically it was a bad move: it could easily have yielded 20-30 extra seats on a different day, and the alternative might have been to lose seats and get virtually no votes at all.

    There wasn't a huge amount else for Hague for run on at the time given he was nowhere near a serious challenger for an alternative administration.

    Of course Hague's save the pound campaign was damn stupid. Gordon Brown had already killed off any prospect of joining the Euro with his five tests, and voters knew that.
    Oh don't be silly. The five tests were so subjective Brown could just say "yes they've been met" and we could have joined the Euro, with catastrophic results when the 2007 recession hit combining that with Brown's overspending.

    It was when Blair promised a referendum, not Brown's tests, that our prospects of joining the Euro faded.
    Yeah, back in the real world, Brown's five tests ruled out joining. They were evaluated at least twice by the Treasury and, surprise, surprise, we failed each time. Heck, we did not even meet the Maastricht criterion of ERM membership, and I think the public might have noticed any move to join.

    God alone knows what CCHQ was smoking to fight an election on an issue everyone knew had been resolved. Worse, there were complaints at the time of local associations being pressed to report exaggerated numbers signing petitions. It was a Potemkin campaign. What next? LotO Kemi in 2029 to oppose sending British astronauts to Venus?
    It was clear by the 2001 election that we were not going to join the Euro. If that had become an issue in the campaign there is not doubt Blair would have done much less well than he did. Save the Pound was a success story and it worked.
    That's the point. We were not going to join the Euro. Gordon Brown had already killed it off. Hague's Save the Pound campaign was a risible irrelevance.

    In the 2001 general election, the Conservative Party gained no fewer, but no more, than one additional seat. In the annals of successful campaigns...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
    edited August 20
    kamski said:

    On topic.

    Iran was behind a recent hack targeting Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, US security agencies said on Monday, accusing Tehran of seeking to influence the 2024 election.

    The statement from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) confirmed the Trump campaign claim from earlier this month that it had been targeted, potentially by Iran.

    “We have observed increasingly aggressive Iranian activity during this election cycle, specifically involving influence operations targeting the American public and cyber operations targeting presidential campaigns,” the security agencies said.

    “This includes the recently reported activities to compromise former President Trump’s campaign, which the (intelligence community) attributes to Iran,” they added.

    The intelligence community “is confident that the Iranians have through social engineering and other efforts sought access to individuals with direct access to the presidential campaigns of both political parties. Such activity, including thefts and disclosures, are intended to influence the US election process.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/08/20/iran-blamed-trump-campaign-hack-us-intelligence-election/

    It's interesting that the main stream media don't report the contents of those hacks because Iran, whereas in 2016 contents of Russian hacks of the Democrats were the biggest news throughout the campaign. MSM are again conspiring to help Trump because he helps their circulation/viewing numbers, and they're desperate to keep him afloat!!
    TBF, we don't actually know why there have been no resulting stories published, and what their motivation is.

    It could be an entirely principled decision on their part. Though that would be a remarkable change from their entirely unprincipled treatment of the Clinton hack.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited August 20
    ydoethur said:

    Pertinent, in light of what we've been discussing:

    Biden’s age-related infirmities were nothing compared to Republican nominee Donald Trump’s. Prone to stumbling over words and intermittently forgetful, Biden appeared unlikely to carry the burdens of the presidency for another term. Yet when confronted with political reality, he acted appropriately. History will record it as among his finest hours.

    Trump, on the other hand, has gone completely around the bend. Some apparent combination of senile dementia and mental illness has rendered him totally unfit for public office. To put it bluntly, the man has lost his marbles. He can no longer follow the plot or distinguish fantasy from reality. Maybe surviving an assassination attempt affected him, but it appears that the prospect of losing an election to a Black woman is more than his diseased ego can bear.


    https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2024/08/16/donald-trump-mental-issues-lost-his-marbles-republicans-kamala-harris-helicopter-ride-gene-lyons

    Watching Biden's performance I contrasted with the carping and cruelty of our unlamented flint-knapper after the former's disastrous debate performance. What a graceless amoral knob Leon was.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,409
    kinabalu said:

    I don't think a war would help Trump (he's past his sell by) but good piece @rottenborough.

    Really, the only thing that can help Trump, is Trump. And whether restraining himself a bit is possible at this point, who knows? Trump is a TV man, so I wonder if what he really needs is a Director and Producer. Someone to say 'cut, it's in the can' when he's rambling on at a rally.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    Foxy said:

    Eating ice lollies 'should be part of school curriculum', experts urge
    https://news.sky.com/story/eating-ice-lollies-should-be-part-of-school-curriculum-experts-urge-13200065

    Not sure we can afford it when we have a spending freeze.
    There are 99 reasons to look for a better alternative.
    Not least, the flakiness of our education system.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,687
    Sandpit said:

    A long thread on why Russian conscripts are waving their white flags in huge numbers.

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1825452740501282870.html

    TL:DR they’re treated as slaves, have almost no miltary training nor functional equipment, are kept hungry and sick - and those are the positive highlights of their service, before the rape and torture starts.

    Incredible though not surprising thread.

    Will we see a WWI style revolt by soldiers at the front at some point?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,839
    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking?

    Or what was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking mere weeks after he'd been acquitted in America of a multi-billion dollar fraud, and days after his co-defendant was killed in a car crash?
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694
    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    One of the minor disappointments associated with Leon leaving the site, is that we won't have the pleasure of watching him trying to spin this.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4836277-democratic-national-convention-biden-harris/
    ...Biden had a difficult task in an emotionally tough moment.
    He understandably wanted to defend his own record while at the same time making the case for Harris — and striking a tone that was not too melancholy nor mawkish.
    He pulled it off in an address that lasted almost 50 minutes.
    He cast his own presidency as a recovery period from the twin traumas of the Capitol Riot of Jan. 6, 2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic. He wove Harris into his own preferred narrative of recovery, citing her tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act as one example. When the crowd broke out into a chant of “Thank you, Joe,” Biden responded, “Thank you Kamala too.”
    There were plenty of attacks on Trump — as a danger to democracy, a candidate who takes a fundamentally pessimistic view of the United States, and a selfish person who killed a bipartisan border deal earlier this year for political gain.
    The timing of the speech was hardly in Biden’s favor. By the time he started speaking, it was 11:30 p.m. on the East Coast. He finished well after midnight...>/i>

    I hadn’t realised @leon had left. What happened?
    he was dissatisfied with the level and type of attention he was getting
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    One of the minor disappointments associated with Leon leaving the site, is that we won't have the pleasure of watching him trying to spin this.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4836277-democratic-national-convention-biden-harris/
    ...Biden had a difficult task in an emotionally tough moment.
    He understandably wanted to defend his own record while at the same time making the case for Harris — and striking a tone that was not too melancholy nor mawkish.
    He pulled it off in an address that lasted almost 50 minutes.
    He cast his own presidency as a recovery period from the twin traumas of the Capitol Riot of Jan. 6, 2021 and the COVID-19 pandemic. He wove Harris into his own preferred narrative of recovery, citing her tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act as one example. When the crowd broke out into a chant of “Thank you, Joe,” Biden responded, “Thank you Kamala too.”
    There were plenty of attacks on Trump — as a danger to democracy, a candidate who takes a fundamentally pessimistic view of the United States, and a selfish person who killed a bipartisan border deal earlier this year for political gain.
    The timing of the speech was hardly in Biden’s favor. By the time he started speaking, it was 11:30 p.m. on the East Coast. He finished well after midnight...>/i>

    I hadn’t realised @leon had left. What happened?
    He got into a stupid argument about pets and flounced.
    Along with anti-Semitism and Islamaphobia we have cat-hatred as a new political force. A dogma (albeit he doesn't like them either) @Leon shares with JD Vance.


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,409
    edited August 20

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking?

    Or what was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking mere weeks after he'd been acquitted in America of a multi-billion dollar fraud, and days after his co-defendant was killed in a car crash?
    It's a disturbing story. And one I'd hope our spooks would be investigating, though I have my doubts.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,207
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Eating ice lollies 'should be part of school curriculum', experts urge
    https://news.sky.com/story/eating-ice-lollies-should-be-part-of-school-curriculum-experts-urge-13200065

    Not sure we can afford it when we have a spending freeze.
    There are 99 reasons to look for a better alternative.
    Not least, the flakiness of our education system.
    That's problem that's going to need a significant amount of lolly to fix.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,716
    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    Too many assumptions. Chance of being on a boat that sinks in a year is easy. But for that specific boat, you need to look at design issues compared to similar vessels, location, storm, any aggravating factors (crew). That kind of maths is how you end up jailing mothers who have multiple babies die of SIDS.

    As DJL notes, the chances of two defendants dying* (any cause) within x period of a court case might be more relevant and much more easy to calculate. But even then, there are an awful lot of court cases each year and an awful lot of years to consider. Coincidences happen and "the driver of the car, a 49-year-old woman from Haddenham, remained at the scene and is assisting with enquiries" for the unfortunate runner is a strange way of doing a hit.

    But yes, it does make you stop and think, doesn't it?

    *not confirmed yet for Lynch, of course, but seems very likely, unfortunately
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,777
    edited August 20
    In random gaming news, a Chinese developer has released the first proper AAA single player game to come out of China and it's absolutely huge, it will sell 25m+ copies globally this year making it the best selling game of the year. I think what it will do is show western developers that the market for games is probably 2-3x the size of what they are targeting with their current slop and narratives in games will begin to change over the next dev cycle. Shit like Concord will stop being funded and I think games will have a more Asian feel to them again similar to how it was in the 90s and 00s.

    There's been a number of flops over the last year or so for games that have been made to appeal to the "modern" audience and I think just the same as Hollywood, the games industry is going to start to junk it all because it doesn't make them any money.

    Lots of people complain about woke/DEI and all that stuff but the best way to avoid it is to just not spend any money on it or give it any attention. In the end money talks and companies will adjust their strategy to make products that make them the most money, or if they don't new entrants who aren't hung up on this stuff will come in and do it and the established companies will lose their market dominance (something that is happening in gaming already).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,103
    An interesting piece, which I think highlights that the Middle East is as much about Iran, as it is about Israel - and for long term stability both questions need to be resolved.

    On Mr Trump, it is ironic that he is perceived as a strong-man by some. My admittedly blunt assessment is that he's a coward who is concerned only with his own backside, and will burn down anything to save it including the full spectrum of foreign interests of the USA.

    On the rumoured exclusion zone of 10km. Is there a topological basis for this? In the past (eg 1980s) working with the "South Lebanon Army" (Saad Haddad, Christian Militia) they tried a similar thing. Is it defensible at 10km, or will they need to be at the Litani River (30km north), which is comparable say to the River Soar in scale .. ie smaller than the Derwent.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    I'll get back to you when I have adjusted my priors.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,716
    On topic: I worry for the US electorate if they think Trump is the person to have in charge during a war (although I do get the argument). I'm also red on Trump.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,716
    mercator said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    I'll get back to you when I have adjusted my priors.
    Posterior probability is about 1, I think?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,678
    Lucy Letby is an interesting phenomenon. Seems she's now being politically weaponized by the British Right as a way to bash the NHS.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    Wow. Now this would make a great conspiracy theory. One codefendant in the Autonomy fraud trial is dead whilst the other is "missing" in a yatch "accident". What are the chances?

    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/mike-lynch-co-defendant-us-211432230.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Sandpit said:

    A long thread on why Russian conscripts are waving their white flags in huge numbers.

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1825452740501282870.html

    TL:DR they’re treated as slaves, have almost no miltary training nor functional equipment, are kept hungry and sick - and those are the positive highlights of their service, before the rape and torture starts.

    That's quite a thread.

    And it's a reminder of just how deluded people like Alex Jones are.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,716

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking?

    Or what was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking mere weeks after he'd been acquitted in America of a multi-billion dollar fraud, and days after his co-defendant was killed in a car crash?
    It's a disturbing story. And one I'd hope our spooks would be investigating, though I have my doubts.
    What makes you think our spooks didn't carry out the hits? :wink:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking?

    Or what was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking mere weeks after he'd been acquitted in America of a multi-billion dollar fraud, and days after his co-defendant was killed in a car crash?
    The highest aluminium mast must raise the centre of gravity and also the windage making a knockdown more likely.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,409

    Lucy Letby is an interesting phenomenon. Seems she's now being politically weaponized by the British Right as a way to bash the NHS.

    Weaponised. And please stop mangling the infinitive. And why does 'Right' have a capital?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,283
    Nice thread header although rather unsettling.

    Reminds me of Reagan's campaign working to delay hostage releases to scupper Carter (not exactly conclusively proven but entirely to form and enough unconnected people on both sides say it happened).
  • PJHPJH Posts: 643
    ydoethur said:

    PJH said:

    ydoethur said:


    Greeting from Hamburg as Starmer drives yet another nail in UK productivity

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/08/19/keir-starmer-backs-working-from-home-culture-presenteeism/

    Because multi-hour commutes and open plan offices are really, really great for productivity.
    Why do you think WFH is automatically a bad thing? Where I'm currently working I now have to spend 2 days a week in the office. It's entirely pointless. None of my project team, nor my manager, nor her manager are based in London, where I am. I just have to sit in a noisy open plan office and get distracted from my work.

    Sure it's useful to be there sometimes, there are other people on the fringes of my project it's worth catching up with occasionally, but let me decide on how often that warrants going in. Don't pretend being in the office is, by itself, "productive".

    (Rant over - and to work, 2 minutes late!)
    I don't. Did you reply to the wrong comment?
    Of course, as you guessed, not aimed at you. Sorry!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Selebian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    Too many assumptions. Chance of being on a boat that sinks in a year is easy. But for that specific boat, you need to look at design issues compared to similar vessels, location, storm, any aggravating factors (crew). That kind of maths is how you end up jailing mothers who have multiple babies die of SIDS.

    As DJL notes, the chances of two defendants dying* (any cause) within x period of a court case might be more relevant and much more easy to calculate. But even then, there are an awful lot of court cases each year and an awful lot of years to consider. Coincidences happen and "the driver of the car, a 49-year-old woman from Haddenham, remained at the scene and is assisting with enquiries" for the unfortunate runner is a strange way of doing a hit.

    But yes, it does make you stop and think, doesn't it?

    *not confirmed yet for Lynch, of course, but seems very likely, unfortunately
    Hang on: have you not considered the possibility that Lynch organized the whole thing and has disappeared?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569
    MaxPB said:

    In random gaming news, a Chinese developer has released the first proper AAA single player game to come out of China and it's absolutely huge, it will sell 25m+ copies globally this year making it the best selling game of the year. I think what it will do is show western developers that the market for games is probably 2-3x the size of what they are targeting with their current slop and narratives in games will begin to change over the next dev cycle. Shit like Concord will stop being funded and I think games will have a more Asian feel to them again similar to how it was in the 90s and 00s.

    There's been a number of flops over the last year or so for games that have been made to appeal to the "modern" audience and I think just the same as Hollywood, the games industry is going to start to junk it all because it doesn't make them any money.

    Lots of people complain about woke/DEI and all that stuff but the best way to avoid it is to just not spend any money on it or give it any attention. In the end money talks and companies will adjust their strategy to make products that make them the most money, or if they don't new entrants who aren't hung up on this stuff will come in and do it and the established companies will lose their market dominance (something that is happening in gaming already).

    They need to get GTA VI on the shelves, that will be the biggest media release of all time - and very not-woke.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    mercator said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    I'll get back to you when I have adjusted my priors.
    In the meanwhile, everything is in a Bayesian-ce.

    My, that's epic bad taste..
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,678

    Lucy Letby is an interesting phenomenon. Seems she's now being politically weaponized by the British Right as a way to bash the NHS.

    Weaponised. And please stop mangling the infinitive. And why does 'Right' have a capital?
    'Weaponized': consult the Oxford Dictionary. As for 'mangling the infinitive', you don't know what an infinitive is do you?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    MaxPB said:

    In random gaming news, a Chinese developer has released the first proper AAA single player game to come out of China and it's absolutely huge, it will sell 25m+ copies globally this year making it the best selling game of the year. I think what it will do is show western developers that the market for games is probably 2-3x the size of what they are targeting with their current slop and narratives in games will begin to change over the next dev cycle. Shit like Concord will stop being funded and I think games will have a more Asian feel to them again similar to how it was in the 90s and 00s.

    There's been a number of flops over the last year or so for games that have been made to appeal to the "modern" audience and I think just the same as Hollywood, the games industry is going to start to junk it all because it doesn't make them any money.

    Lots of people complain about woke/DEI and all that stuff but the best way to avoid it is to just not spend any money on it or give it any attention. In the end money talks and companies will adjust their strategy to make products that make them the most money, or if they don't new entrants who aren't hung up on this stuff will come in and do it and the established companies will lose their market dominance (something that is happening in gaming already).

    What's the game, and for how long will it destroy my productivity?
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019
    edited August 20
    Selebian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    Too many assumptions. Chance of being on a boat that sinks in a year is easy. But for that specific boat, you need to look at design issues compared to similar vessels, location, storm, any aggravating factors (crew). That kind of maths is how you end up jailing mothers who have multiple babies die of SIDS.

    As DJL notes, the chances of two defendants dying* (any cause) within x period of a court case might be more relevant and much more easy to calculate. But even then, there are an awful lot of court cases each year and an awful lot of years to consider. Coincidences happen and "the driver of the car, a 49-year-old woman from Haddenham, remained at the scene and is assisting with enquiries" for the unfortunate runner is a strange way of doing a hit.

    But yes, it does make you stop and think, doesn't it?

    *not confirmed yet for Lynch, of course, but seems very likely, unfortunately
    Why? If she runs she's a hit and run driver and a monster in most people's eyes. If she stays, she's a middle aged woman building a better narrative as she cries over her terrible, terrible mistake.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,809
    edited August 20
    ydoethur said:

    mercator said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    I'll get back to you when I have adjusted my priors.
    In the meanwhile, everything is in a Bayesian-ce.

    My, that's epic bad taste..
    BTW why was the yacht called that? I'd assumed instantly it was owned by an academic who had to do with stats, almost certainly one who worked in pharmaceuticals, but it was apparently a charter job.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    PJH said:

    ydoethur said:

    PJH said:

    ydoethur said:


    Greeting from Hamburg as Starmer drives yet another nail in UK productivity

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/08/19/keir-starmer-backs-working-from-home-culture-presenteeism/

    Because multi-hour commutes and open plan offices are really, really great for productivity.
    Why do you think WFH is automatically a bad thing? Where I'm currently working I now have to spend 2 days a week in the office. It's entirely pointless. None of my project team, nor my manager, nor her manager are based in London, where I am. I just have to sit in a noisy open plan office and get distracted from my work.

    Sure it's useful to be there sometimes, there are other people on the fringes of my project it's worth catching up with occasionally, but let me decide on how often that warrants going in. Don't pretend being in the office is, by itself, "productive".

    (Rant over - and to work, 2 minutes late!)
    I don't. Did you reply to the wrong comment?
    Of course, as you guessed, not aimed at you. Sorry!
    No worries.

    Fully agree with every word you said, by the way.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,777
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    In random gaming news, a Chinese developer has released the first proper AAA single player game to come out of China and it's absolutely huge, it will sell 25m+ copies globally this year making it the best selling game of the year. I think what it will do is show western developers that the market for games is probably 2-3x the size of what they are targeting with their current slop and narratives in games will begin to change over the next dev cycle. Shit like Concord will stop being funded and I think games will have a more Asian feel to them again similar to how it was in the 90s and 00s.

    There's been a number of flops over the last year or so for games that have been made to appeal to the "modern" audience and I think just the same as Hollywood, the games industry is going to start to junk it all because it doesn't make them any money.

    Lots of people complain about woke/DEI and all that stuff but the best way to avoid it is to just not spend any money on it or give it any attention. In the end money talks and companies will adjust their strategy to make products that make them the most money, or if they don't new entrants who aren't hung up on this stuff will come in and do it and the established companies will lose their market dominance (something that is happening in gaming already).

    What's the game, and for how long will it destroy my productivity?
    Black Myth Wukong and it's about 40h long so not too bad. Plays like God of War apparently.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,809
    edited August 20
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking?

    Or what was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking mere weeks after he'd been acquitted in America of a multi-billion dollar fraud, and days after his co-defendant was killed in a car crash?
    The highest aluminium mast must raise the centre of gravity and also the windage making a knockdown more likely.
    Wouldn't it be the sudden change, even reversal, of wind direction as well, in such a squall/waterspout?

    Edit: and/or intensity.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    edited August 20
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    mercator said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    I'll get back to you when I have adjusted my priors.
    In the meanwhile, everything is in a Bayesian-ce.

    My, that's epic bad taste..
    BTW why was the yacht called that? I'd assumed instantly it was owned by an academic who had to do with stats, almost certainly one who worked in pharmaceuticals, but it was apparently a charter job.
    I think it was chartered from a company owned by Lynch's wife.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    rcs1000 said:

    Selebian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    Too many assumptions. Chance of being on a boat that sinks in a year is easy. But for that specific boat, you need to look at design issues compared to similar vessels, location, storm, any aggravating factors (crew). That kind of maths is how you end up jailing mothers who have multiple babies die of SIDS.

    As DJL notes, the chances of two defendants dying* (any cause) within x period of a court case might be more relevant and much more easy to calculate. But even then, there are an awful lot of court cases each year and an awful lot of years to consider. Coincidences happen and "the driver of the car, a 49-year-old woman from Haddenham, remained at the scene and is assisting with enquiries" for the unfortunate runner is a strange way of doing a hit.

    But yes, it does make you stop and think, doesn't it?

    *not confirmed yet for Lynch, of course, but seems very likely, unfortunately
    Hang on: have you not considered the possibility that Lynch organized the whole thing and has disappeared?

    Quite hard to organise a storm with waterspouts, even with the aid of the Jewish Space Lasers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,569
    Foss said:

    Selebian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    Too many assumptions. Chance of being on a boat that sinks in a year is easy. But for that specific boat, you need to look at design issues compared to similar vessels, location, storm, any aggravating factors (crew). That kind of maths is how you end up jailing mothers who have multiple babies die of SIDS.

    As DJL notes, the chances of two defendants dying* (any cause) within x period of a court case might be more relevant and much more easy to calculate. But even then, there are an awful lot of court cases each year and an awful lot of years to consider. Coincidences happen and "the driver of the car, a 49-year-old woman from Haddenham, remained at the scene and is assisting with enquiries" for the unfortunate runner is a strange way of doing a hit.

    But yes, it does make you stop and think, doesn't it?

    *not confirmed yet for Lynch, of course, but seems very likely, unfortunately
    Why? If she runs she's a hit and run driver and a monster in most people's eyes. If she stays, she's a middle aged woman building a better narrative as she cries over her terrible, terrible mistake.
    If it was a genuine accident, that woman is going to have a lot of spooks looking at every message she’s ever sent to anyone. If not, then she’d better have made sure that the burner phone was never in the same cell as her usual phone.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    mercator said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    I'll get back to you when I have adjusted my priors.
    In the meanwhile, everything is in a Bayesian-ce.

    My, that's epic bad taste..
    BTW why was the yacht called that? I'd assumed instantly it was owned by an academic who had to do with stats, almost certainly one who worked in pharmaceuticals, but it was apparently a charter job.
    "According to shipspotting.com, Bayesian is owned by a firm called Revtom Limited. Lynch’s wife, Bacares, was named as the sole shareholder of the firm, Reuters reported, adding that Lynch’s PhD thesis and the software that made his fortune was based on Bayesian theory."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/19/we-didnt-see-it-coming-the-tumultuous-sicilian-night-that-took-down-the-bayesian
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Selebian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    Too many assumptions. Chance of being on a boat that sinks in a year is easy. But for that specific boat, you need to look at design issues compared to similar vessels, location, storm, any aggravating factors (crew). That kind of maths is how you end up jailing mothers who have multiple babies die of SIDS.

    As DJL notes, the chances of two defendants dying* (any cause) within x period of a court case might be more relevant and much more easy to calculate. But even then, there are an awful lot of court cases each year and an awful lot of years to consider. Coincidences happen and "the driver of the car, a 49-year-old woman from Haddenham, remained at the scene and is assisting with enquiries" for the unfortunate runner is a strange way of doing a hit.

    But yes, it does make you stop and think, doesn't it?

    *not confirmed yet for Lynch, of course, but seems very likely, unfortunately
    Hang on: have you not considered the possibility that Lynch organized the whole thing and has disappeared?

    Quite hard to organise a storm with waterspouts, even with the aid of the Jewish Space Lasers.
    Any storm would have done, surely.

    (In my hypothetical scenario, for the avoidance of doubt.)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,413
    edited August 20
    Foss said:

    Selebian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    Too many assumptions. Chance of being on a boat that sinks in a year is easy. But for that specific boat, you need to look at design issues compared to similar vessels, location, storm, any aggravating factors (crew). That kind of maths is how you end up jailing mothers who have multiple babies die of SIDS.

    As DJL notes, the chances of two defendants dying* (any cause) within x period of a court case might be more relevant and much more easy to calculate. But even then, there are an awful lot of court cases each year and an awful lot of years to consider. Coincidences happen and "the driver of the car, a 49-year-old woman from Haddenham, remained at the scene and is assisting with enquiries" for the unfortunate runner is a strange way of doing a hit.

    But yes, it does make you stop and think, doesn't it?

    *not confirmed yet for Lynch, of course, but seems very likely, unfortunately
    Why? If she runs she's a hit and run driver and a monster in most people's eyes. If she stays, she's a middle aged woman building a better narrative as she cries over her terrible, terrible mistake.
    School friend of mine was killed in similar circumstances. Driver of the car gave evidence at the inquest, although with her solicitor close by and helping her in dealing with the questions.
    Ended, IIRC, as 'accidental death' although there was a LOT of muttering.

    Doubt that Bill was involved in anything dodgy, though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,186
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Selebian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    Too many assumptions. Chance of being on a boat that sinks in a year is easy. But for that specific boat, you need to look at design issues compared to similar vessels, location, storm, any aggravating factors (crew). That kind of maths is how you end up jailing mothers who have multiple babies die of SIDS.

    As DJL notes, the chances of two defendants dying* (any cause) within x period of a court case might be more relevant and much more easy to calculate. But even then, there are an awful lot of court cases each year and an awful lot of years to consider. Coincidences happen and "the driver of the car, a 49-year-old woman from Haddenham, remained at the scene and is assisting with enquiries" for the unfortunate runner is a strange way of doing a hit.

    But yes, it does make you stop and think, doesn't it?

    *not confirmed yet for Lynch, of course, but seems very likely, unfortunately
    Hang on: have you not considered the possibility that Lynch organized the whole thing and has disappeared?

    Quite hard to organise a storm with waterspouts, even with the aid of the Jewish Space Lasers.
    Interestingly, one of the things that the SDI (and related projects) found was that a continuous multi megawatt laser does (at some wavelengths) is create a vortex.

    The laser heats particles and water vapour in the air. Which pushes them out of the beam. So it kinda creates its own tunnel through the atmosphere. This takes a second or 2.

    The reason for the interest is the effect was that atmospheric attenuation of the beam drops off as a result of this.

    The actual effect, for the largest lasers ever built, was a mild breeze, though.

    So the Zionist Islamist Masonic Space Lasers would need to be 4-5 orders of magnitude bigger than the biggest lasers ever constructed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,093

    kinabalu said:

    I don't think a war would help Trump (he's past his sell by) but good piece @rottenborough.

    Really, the only thing that can help Trump, is Trump. And whether restraining himself a bit is possible at this point, who knows? Trump is a TV man, so I wonder if what he really needs is a Director and Producer. Someone to say 'cut, it's in the can' when he's rambling on at a rally.
    Yes, a pivot to sounding sane and balanced, even at this eleventh hour, might well boost his vote. In general he'd be even more dangerous than he is if he could present differently. But he simply cannot do it. He can't hide the warts because the sheer number and size of them (his warts) are what define him, and in any case he thinks they're beauty spots. One despairs of the man really.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,361

    Lucy Letby is an interesting phenomenon. Seems she's now being politically weaponized by the British Right as a way to bash the NHS.

    Letby truthers are really very odd but it is not just the British right. Private Eye too has been questioning of it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
    edited August 20
    Selebian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    Too many assumptions. Chance of being on a boat that sinks in a year is easy. But for that specific boat, you need to look at design issues compared to similar vessels, location, storm, any aggravating factors (crew). That kind of maths is how you end up jailing mothers who have multiple babies die of SIDS.

    As DJL notes, the chances of two defendants dying* (any cause) within x period of a court case might be more relevant and much more easy to calculate. But even then, there are an awful lot of court cases each year and an awful lot of years to consider. Coincidences happen and "the driver of the car, a 49-year-old woman from Haddenham, remained at the scene and is assisting with enquiries" for the unfortunate runner is a strange way of doing a hit.

    But yes, it does make you stop and think, doesn't it?

    *not confirmed yet for Lynch, of course, but seems very likely, unfortunately
    I think it would be extraordinarily difficult deliberately to sink a boat of that size, without leaving some sort of evidence of his it had been done.

    It's only 300m off shore, and while the water is nearly 50m deep, recovery effort ought to be relatively easy. And his family will want to know - and certainly has the resources - to find out what happened.

    Alongside the personal tragedy, after he'd just won back his freedom, the loss to UK technology is significant.
    He didn't just create the single business which was sold to HP; he was one of the UK's leading technology venture capitalists,
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    mercator said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What was the chance of Mike Lynch's yacht sinking. Has anyone worked out the odds ?

    I'll get back to you when I have adjusted my priors.
    In the meanwhile, everything is in a Bayesian-ce.

    My, that's epic bad taste..
    BTW why was the yacht called that? I'd assumed instantly it was owned by an academic who had to do with stats, almost certainly one who worked in pharmaceuticals, but it was apparently a charter job.
    Lynch PhD was on Bayesian probability. It was his boat not charter.

    There are some serious ironies here. You would expect a smart cookie with a statistics background to think through the implications of the tallest mast in the world. What is the danger of someone coming along with an even taller one? Would it more likely be twice as tall or one metre taller? What do the constraints ruling out option A and making B pretty unattractive tell me about my own mast?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,093
    Selebian said:

    On topic: I worry for the US electorate if they think Trump is the person to have in charge during a war (although I do get the argument). I'm also red on Trump.

    Or in peacetime tbh.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    MaxPB said:

    I

    Lots of people complain about woke/DEI and all that stuff but the best way to avoid it is to just not spend any money on it or give it any attention. In the end money talks and companies will adjust their strategy to make products that make them the most money, or if they don't new entrants who aren't hung up on this stuff will come in and do it and the established companies will lose their market dominance (something that is happening in gaming already).

    The most important and succesful game of the last year, BG3, was mega-woke.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,808
    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    I

    Lots of people complain about woke/DEI and all that stuff but the best way to avoid it is to just not spend any money on it or give it any attention. In the end money talks and companies will adjust their strategy to make products that make them the most money, or if they don't new entrants who aren't hung up on this stuff will come in and do it and the established companies will lose their market dominance (something that is happening in gaming already).

    The most important and succesful game of the last year, BG3, was mega-woke.
    If its descending into wokeness ratings of computer games, I am almost, not quite but almost, tempted to call for the return.
This discussion has been closed.