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Is Donald Trump heading for his Pierre-Charles Villeneuve moment, again? – politicalbetting.com
Is Donald Trump heading for his Pierre-Charles Villeneuve moment, again? – politicalbetting.com
Trafalgar only has Trump ahead slightly in swing states?Oh it's incredibly over, even the Republican pollsters can't pull through for him pic.twitter.com/OIawpF4Ay4
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https://x.com/rahhead01/status/1821888245291970863
https://youtu.be/4zg-2zcKTVE?si=xkQfZ_PcYX_OzBy4
Of course, crowd size isn't conclusive, especially given how few people live in Montana, but it is instructive that Trump can't fill even small venues in the way he used to.
Another debate victory
Harris pulls a Sunak style campaign
Fire Vance
Fire himself
Another assassination attempt.
A social media storm/riot
Dirt on his opponents
Economic crash
They are desperate for Trump to win so he can sell out Ukraine.
Remember in 2016 after the grab them by the pussy comments became public Wikileaks released stuff to damage Clinton.
Let's look at what this relative unknown has brought to the ticket so far:
1) Energy. Look at the bounce and cheeriness. He's obviously thoroughly enjoying every minute and it's infectious.
2) Humour. Harris has always come across as quite dry, but Walz? He's got them laughing like he's Ronald Reagan.
3) Loyalty. He's mentioning her in every speech and praising her to the skies.
And that's even before we get to the back story, the executive experience and the fact his selection has completely wrong-footed the Trump campaign.
If he can keep this up, he'll be a magnificent asset for the Dems.
So either she's a brilliant judge of a person, including herself, and picked the perfect candidate for her ticket.
Or she's lucked out on an epic scale.
Or both.
His many critics focus on Murray's Islamaphobia and racism, to be told that's not the point. Actually it is entirely the point. Murray far from hiding his Islamaphobia, intellectualises it. His only defence can be that Islamaphobia and racism are justified. It's the battle he chooses to fight; we should engage him on it.
His book, The Strange Death of Europe: Immigration, Identity, Islam, is the most significant polemic in the canon of Islamaphobia. The three words of the subtitle distil his argument: Islam is bad; Islamic immigration into Europe is doubly bad; it leads to a loss of identity in Europe and ultimately a cultural death. This trend is abetted by an effete liberal ascendancy who have lost Europe's previous self confidence by questioning cultural assumptions on colonialism etc and denial of the Islamic problem.
Murray claims to empiricism in his arguments. You observe and from your observations you get to the truth. What I have missed by not reading his book is all the fascinating, or depending on your view dreary, detail on the ways in which Islam is bad. I am sure however that Murray is seeing lots of trees and no woods and therefore not getting to the truth.
Bad or not, Islam just isn't that important in Europe, certainly not to the extent of causing it to die. Muslims make up 5% of the population and a marginal and not well integrated minority (not least because of the hostility towards them that Murray espouses). They are not imposing their cultural norms, including on homosexuality, onto anyone else. Meanwhile socially conservative elites that Murray is very friendly with, such as Orbán and Meloni do.
Muslims make up about half of immigration into Europe, but most immigration in Europe is other Europeans including recently many Ukrainians.
He is also wrong about liberals, of which I am one, lacking self confidence. We may be deluded but to a man and woman we think we're superior to the obscurantism of Putin, the Iranian theocracy and others. If we reject colonialism and slavery it's because we think we are better than that. Meanwhile Murray is the one who thinks Europe is dying. The cultural death is all projection on his part.
Strip away the intellectual veneer and Douglas Murray"s Islamaphobia and racism is no more justified than his fellow sectarians who trashed the mosque in Southport last week.
Tell me where I'm wrong?
Somebody tweeted how was it possible that both Harris and Walz were 60.
Somebody else tweeted
'Because Tim Walz taught high school.
Trust me.'
to which Walz replied with
''And supervised the lunchroom for 20 years. You do not leave that job with a full head of hair. Trust me.'
https://x.com/Tim_Walz/status/1816108360158138598
I'm amazed he didn't say that he escaped death by an inch and was saved by an angel resembling Ronald Reagan.
I think Trump lost his USP
Then
"Tell me where I'm wrong?"
The Batley Grammar School teacher in hiding for his life might disagree with your contention that Muslims are not imposing their cultural norms on him.
"The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. He shall hold his Office during the Term of four Years, and, together with the Vice President, chosen for the same Term, be elected, as follows:"
The consequence of this difference is that other collators have Harris ahead in the battleground states, albeit by a small margin. RCP still have Trump ahead.
Our pollsters were all over the place and substantially overstated the Labour share in our election but we are fortunate that they were at least trying to get it right, as opposed to spinning.
It’s taken 10 days for the King, who prides himself on being a symbol of national unity, to comment.
In doing so, Charles hasn’t called out the racism and Islamophobia.
To remain relevant, his officials will need to be more fleet of foot in the future.
https://x.com/_PeterHunt/status/1821998277526438211
Uh-huh.
As outliers go, it was a doozy. Not at all suspicious that it was a result that kept Trump in the game in polling averages...
3) is what VP picks are supposed to do.
Compare with previous VPs of semi normal people - Vance is plain bizarre, like his boss.
Mike Pence saved America on January 6th 2021.
Hmm.
Former BBC correspondent and presenter. Commentator on constitutional and royal issues for outlets including @LBC, @SpecCoffeeHouse, @BBCNews, @Channel4News
C4 and Spectator Coffee House at once are interesting, though note that Coffee House was always less up itself that the Spectator.
He also has a very broad follower profile.
In 2016 even RCP had Hillary ahead 272 EC votes to 266 for Trump, yet Trump won 304 to 227.
Now RCP have Trump ahead of Harris 287 to 251 with similar figures to Trafalgar but Harris ahead in Wisconsin as well as Michigan (likely Walz bounce in upper midwest there)
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
In 2020 RCP were near spot on forecasting Biden 319 to Trump 219
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
Rasmussen were not far off either, they leaned Trump but got his score spot on at 47% just underestimated Biden's share having it at 48%. In 2016 they were spot on in the popular vote giving Hilllary a 2% lead in their final poll
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_nov02
https://thehill.com/media/306721-rasmussen-calls-itself-most-accurate-pollster-of-2016/
For what it is worth I have read his books on this subject, if not all his articles. Possibly a criticism is a tendency towards catastrophism. Unsurprisingly, it is all written in a polemical way with the primary purpose of selling books. Also there is a curious thing in that, after accounting for the situation, the conclusion is that Islam is the problem, other than the other way round: (ie: Western civilisation (or at least parts of it) is an existential threat to Muslims in Europe). But he is right that all is not good and that there is a tendency amongst the establishment/elites to completely avoid grappling with this whole issue/problem, and really the book is best read as a historical account of this phenomenon. To his credit, his final warning is that, unless they do, there will be a fascist revolt which has undoubtedly already emerged, see the situation in parts of Europe.
In the US it is even more dangerous because partisan polling like this is a substantial part of the "stolen election" meme. If Trump was ahead in that polling how did he lose? It was stolen and illegitimate votes, obviously. The chances of Trump accepting defeat this time quietly are low and pollsters such as Rasmussen and Trafalgar will, yet again, play an important part in that.
It's impossible not to like Coach Walz even if you don't agree with all his politics.
Indeed, he is making me fall in love with America again, after years where the place seemed increasingly dystopian.
Unless Kamala has very late natural hair colour, we have one of each in this race. Plus a gibbering school-boy.
I'm surprised Mr Trump has not come up with "Calamity Kamala" yet. Perhaps he will.
For those who don’t know - Pence regarded Quayle as Wise Statesman as former VP (yup, indeed). So phoned him to ask whether to go along with Trumps scheme to steal the election.
Quayle told him to follow the constitution.
So Bush I may have made the most important VP pick in history.
You like potato and I like potato
You like tomato and I like tomato
Potato, potahto, tomato, tomahto
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/09/nigel-farage-could-soon-be-devoured-by-the-great-revolution/ (£££)
As I said earlier it is seriously misleading to take the "final" polls for Rasmussen in isolation because they are highly biased until very shortly before then come into line. Of course we have seen similar herding in the UK at times as well.
Given a choice between Trump and Quayle for president - you wouldn’t hesitate one millisecond.
Already has the spraytan; it worked for Widdecombe; it would give him a whole new set of judges to bitch about.
As the BBC put it
This follows the pattern seen after the outbreak of riots in 2011, during which Queen Elizabeth didn’t put out any messages, but royal visits took place after calm had been restored.
The 2024 Ukrainian invasion of Russia continues. It's early days, but this could completely transform the dynamics of the land war.
The 19th Amendment guarantees only the right to vote.
And the Equal Rights Amendment, which would have guaranteed the constitutional position of women, has never been ratified.
Most constitutional scholars agree the Constitution allows women Presidents, but not a few argue that an originalist reading would bar them. Certainly the founders are unlikely to have approved a women as President.
https://x.com/BigBlueWaveUSA/status/1821278360963858530
At Trafalgar the winner was killed by a sniper.
Her comment about it being "difficult to escape a very sombre national mood" was described as unprecedented at the time and felt much more unscripted or planned. And the closest Liz ever came to saying "this is f*cked up"
If he'd have come out with it at the start there would have been cries of him meddling in politics.
From 2025, the Mamba becomes a multi-layered anti-aircraft, anti-ballistic and anti-drone bubble with the SAMP/T NG
https://x.com/aidefranceukr/status/1822062609132351661
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1IKy4MUeJ8
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1822119661233676650
He’s retreated to his comfortable place. And that doesn’t include the campaign against Harris.
It called Bush's victory over Kerry in 2004- but I do think that was also helped my a timely intervention by Osama the Sunday before polling...
Argentina lead 35 - 30 with 10 mins to go.
PS The most hackish SCOTUS judges seem to be the earlier GOP appointees not the Trump ones. For example Barrett published a dissent about some if the biggest WTFs in the immunity decision.
Looking back there was quite a lot of wishcasting in 2004. I seem to remember a lot of people being convinced Bush wouldn't win simply because it was Bush. I think there is some of that around this time, too, though I think Harris at the moment should be the marginal favourite.
Shapiro would have been the better choice.
Unless we get a really differential turnout.
Walz was a particularly good pick in several ways - one is that unlike Shapiro, he won’t upset the left hand side of the Democrat base (Gaza)
The left figure largely in the volunteer and low level party - which is where the turnout engine is.
Note that Hillary managed to piss off exactly that group.
I talked to the man in charge — & many others — about what it’ll take to turn those promises into factories
🧵& free link:
https://x.com/mackhawk/status/1821883949041275299
Good thread and linked article.
One of the big holdups for new fab construction is Republicans blocking permitting exemptions.
This board hates Trump and anything bad for him, and good for Harris, gets about 15 times as much coverage as it should and anything vaguely neutral, let alone positive, gets dismissed.
Kamala Harris lost in 2020 because, largely, she was seen as on the Left and Biden as the moderate. Don't think for a moment Americans have forgotten that. And she certainly has limitations as a candidate. She's far from home and dry and the VI is mainly due to Democrats firming up.
I expect the race to narrow as polling day approaches. And Trump could easily still win this.