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The latest White House race betting – politicalbetting.com
The latest White House race betting – politicalbetting.com
We’ve started to see some polls (conducted exclusively after Biden’s announcement) which shows Harris leading. My expectation is that the polling will getter for Harris until after the convention (where parties usually get a bounce) and she might even be favourite in this market then.
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Royal family to buy two new helicopters despite green push
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/royal-family/article/king-charles-royals-helicopter-sovereign-grant-bc5t6nprl
will getter for Harris
On the main point, very possibly. It depends on how she comes across. The great advantage she has over Trump is having been fairly low profile as VP she is to some extent an unknown quantity. If she exudes warmth, charm and ability in the next three months that won't end well for him because he's got none of those three.
Prince William refuses to reveal how much tax he pays
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2024/07/24/prince-william-refuses-to-reveal-how-much-tax-he-pays/
Someone needs to start pushing back against the notion that everything needs to be in public.
Would be much better if more of life was kept private. Would probably be good for mental health, too.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-leads-trump-44-42-us-presidential-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-23/
@HYUFD please explain, etc...
Finance minister: Mexico ‘must produce more’ amid growing trade deficit with China
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/business/mexico-china-produce-more-growing-trade-deficit-reciprocal/
...The former ambassador said that “ideally,” Mexico, the United States and Canada would all “mirror each other’s tariffs” on Chinese products...
To be effective, tariffs will have to be targeted at particular sectors where there are decent prospects for import substitution.
Otherwise they'll end up being self-defeating as a result of unpopularity.
I'm not quite sure why people are still considering him as a possibility.
If Harris is hedging on the Gaza conflict that probably also reduces Shapiro's chances, given how stridently pro-Israel he is.
The North Carolina and Kentucky governors are fine politicians and hopefully have big futures, but are unlikely to deliver their states.
Whitmer, ditto the first, but has ruled herself out.
The obvious pick therefore is Kelly from Arizona. And Harris isn't exactly known for aggressive risk-taking.
Who wants to go first?
Too much.
I said before the election labour had an open door policy on the issue. Rather like the Tories. Let’s just make sure we have the infrastructure to support it as it’s going to happen anyway.
https://x.com/ukhomeoffice/status/1815440711539384328?s=61
"Crowned Thieves", as Lenin accurately put it.
Fun fact, I have to declare all my income and taxes to my employer.
Caesar's wife etc.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jul/24/king-to-receive-extra-45m-of-public-money-as-crown-estate-income-soars
The impression I am getting is that she is not only smiley but a genuine people person interested in individuals and compassionate. Her "tough enough" credentials are less clear as are her organisational skills if her last campaign is anything to go by.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3389196#Comment_3389196
I’ve always said I’m in favour of ID cards, if the following conditions are met:
1) They’re issued for free
2) You don’t have to carry them at all times
3) You can use them chip and pin to access all government services - so they would replace passports and driving licences, not augment them
4) That you had the power to access all information the government holds on you, and amend it where it is wrong
5) That civil servants who access your data are logged, and you can see who they are and why they accessed it
6) That if somebody has accessed your data inappropriately you have the right to take legal action against them, funded by the government.
And numbers 4-6 will not happen while any civil servant breathes air.
So - I oppose them.
I ended up on the "Homer Simpson Votes 2008" video, for some reason. *
A new thing I noticed; as Homer Simpson is being sucked into the rigged voting machine to be killed he says "This does not happen in America. Maybe Ohio, but not in America."
Ohio is JD Vance's state, Prescient?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuK3qpySn2U
* It was a conversation about the accessibility of touch sensitive buttons or physical buttons, and I recalled his voting machine experience and the machine doing the unwanted option
I don't see that being an issue going forward...
"After more than 10 hours of agony, I finally lay back in a big padded chair and felt the iron corset loosen as intravenous paracetamol entered my veins. In a place called, without apparent irony, the Rapid Treatment Room. "
"The NHS is now the biggest reason to leave Britain; it’s scary. You would find better treatment almost anywhere else. How can we call ourselves a civilised country while people are left in pain? We can’t go on like this. We just can’t."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2024/07/23/no-compassion-left-in-the-nhs/
And Kelly offers nothing there.
Perhaps "Lazy Sunday Afternoon" by the Small Faces.
5 should already be the case, if the system doesn't have that level of audit trail there then there are way bigger problems that need to be addressed.
and 6 - if they offer it, it would be impossible to access because the criteria for inappropriate access would be too high - trust me you would not believe how easy it is to access the wrong data...
And most audits record when the data was loaded, not how long the user looked at the data for - it could easily be 3 seconds as they discover they've got the wrong record or were going down the wrong track...
"Back at home, I texted my friend, a senior doctor at the hospital I had just left. “A vision of hell,” I wrote, “Hard to believe we live in a First World country.”
“I share your assessment of A&E,” my friend replied, “and it is the same on the wards. Lack of empathy and concern for a fellow human being. Partly cultural. For some people it is just a job, a means to come to the UK and get more money than they can make at home. Language and cultural barriers don’t help.”
"My doctor friend, a first-generation immigrant who has built a brilliant medical career here over 30 years, points out that the UK has failed to train enough of our own high-calibre doctors and nurses and so the NHS is hugely dependent on healthcare migrants from 214 countries, some of whom barely scrape the English language requirement (“I will ask my colleg”) and don’t relate to the patients"
VAT, sugar tax and other levies: silly me, only income tax counts in these discussions. Mrs Thatcher's real legacy!
EDIT: I see Stuartinromford has also made a suggestion
The alternative is to set a maximum number of qualifying asylum seekers to be allowed and if that was reached then its an immediate, if unfortunate, rejection of any beyond that.
Elon Musk denies reported $45 million a month pledge to Trump, says he doesn’t ‘subscribe to cult of personality’
https://fortune.com/2024/07/23/elon-musk-backs-down-from-45-million-a-month-pledge-to-trump-says-he-doesnt-subscribe-to-cult-of-personality/
The battleground continues to be the rust belt and a Dem ticket from the south-west sunshine states shows a lack of interest which Trump and Vance will exploit.
Sure. I’ve read the Parliamentary report on the issue. It contains estimates. I suggest you read it rather than base your ill informed bigotry off the back of a misinterpretation of KLF lyrics.
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmhaff/68/68i.pdf
All I got out of it was I have too much UK stock (not enough US), my pension looks fine for retirement and we don't have enough life insurance. Marginally helpful to have that corroborated but only really £250 of value to review a few documents, if you ask me.
So, not again.
Why set a maximum number? Circumstances change. If war broke out in France, we’d see a huge increase in number, but I think the British people would be happy to take those numbers in, as we did with, for example, the quarter of a million Belgian refugees during World War I.
As I noted yesterday, the notion of VP candidates 'delivering' their state is a pretty flawed one. Any difference they're likely to make is fairly marginal; either the Presidential candidate has it, or she doesn't.
The Democrats are pretty fortunate in having a good half dozen strong VP contenders. The Harris campaign will be doing targeted polling over the next week or so to try to see if any of them make a significant impact. That's more likely to decide the pick (along with whether of not she want the guy in question) than any of our strategy notions.
I work with a lot of immigrant staff. Half my department qualified overseas, and I think it a slur with more than a hint of racism to suggest they do not care as much as British staff. There are bad examples in both groups. Shipman, Allit and Letby were all British trained.
Waiting times in ED have gone up because of shortage of funding (4 hour target was last met in 2015) and working in such an overcrowded department is stressful and leads to burnout. This can breed a certain callouses. I remember myself hardening in such an environment.
A realistic annual number might be 0.1% of the population with perhaps extra from specific obligations such as Ukraine or Hong Kong.
I've listened to quite a few of the Telegraph's "Planet Normal" podcasts, and to me (others may differ) she comes across as a bit of a rantaloon.
I'm not going to comment on the detailed events as I don't know enough detail of the whats and the whys, especially around other patients who may have been at different types of risk or the reasons for decisions made.
However I don't think she is well placed to write this sort of extended philippic.
https://archive.ph/tUVeL
https://x.com/Scaramucci/status/1815906805467185209
https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/schedule/24-july
https://x.com/aria_babu/status/1815403643748696540?s=61
https://x.com/mmpadellan/status/1815824921626566945
When you have your heart attack there is nowhere else to go, so even the rich Alison Pearson needs it to be functional. It's not just about money, but there also needs to be better staff training and leadership.
In 2023, 67,337 applications for asylum were made in the UK, which related to 84,425 individuals (more than one applicant can be included in a single application)...
In 2022, there were around 13 asylum applications for every 10,000 people living in the UK. Across the EU27 there were 22 asylum applications for every 10,000 people. The UK was therefore below the average among EU countries for asylum applications per head of population, ranking 19th among EU27 countries plus the UK on this measure.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/
I don't think we yet have an accurate measure for either a Vance or a lettuce.
Unless Gov Cooper is picked for VP then NC will be for the Dems what MN is for the GOP - a state they can win, but only when they've already won enough elsewhere.
As I said the other day , fixing the random allocation to Foundation posts is a quick win to improve Junior doctors morale at little cost.
https://archive.ph/tUVeL#selection-2849.101-2855.8
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmhaff/68/68i.pdf
And you believe it presumably.
"Around the same time, cases were being reported - with convictions - in many towns and cities in the UK, including Bradford, Newcastle, Rochdale, Bristol, Oxford and Oldham."
https://thelead.uk/we-are-known-now-drawn-out-aftermath-rotherham-and-rochdale-child-exploitation-scandal.
You can also add Derby, Halifax, Keighley, Peterborough, Aylesbury and Telford to that among others.
Its Grim Up North.
The clear solution? More NHS managers! In this case, proper shop floor type lean process merchants.
I think I’m of the view it can, and can help with voter coalitions, but I suspect the individual in question really needs a strong personal following in their state. Eg, I hear Shapiro is very well liked, is that the case? Kelly seems decent but is there any card he holds that really makes him appeal to the people of Arizona (beyond the fact he’s won an election there?) is there an affinity with voters there?
VP choices aren’t always very reliable at delivering swing states and I think I’m right in saying the majority of them don’t really seek to exploit a personal vote. Paul Ryan was from Wisconsin which I suppose was a swing state (which Romney lost). Kaine was from Virginia but if Clinton was losing Virginia she was going to lose the election anyway.
All the others I can think of in this century haven’t been from swing states.
However it's a highly abusive article, without knowing the circumstances of the people she is abusing. Having read all 2300 words, I think she's well out of order.
She even dismissed "patients treated in order of acuity" (FFS):
"You’ll be treated in order of acuity,” she said.
Acuity? Which tier of useless NHS management came up with that buzzword to fob off the folk they are paid to care for?"
I'm happy to accept her views of her personal experience. But utterly clueless about the rest.
https://archive.ph/tUVeL#selection-2849.0-4523.235
https://x.com/saulstaniforth/status/1815999166486569233?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
A number would just be a stick to hit people with if circumstances resulted in the number being exceeded.
Whether its a Trump rally or a Harris rally it might be no more than a few dozen fanatics cheering themselves hoarse.
Hopefully, the new Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, will sort these things out for cheap and easy wins before getting back to his day job of tracking down exactly what happened to Boris's 40 new hospitals.
Over the last 9 months I have had an enormous amount of interaction with A & E, hospitals, consultants, and my GP practice and, whilst there are many problems expecially in A & E, I am wholly with @Foxy about the staff, consultants and doctors, and utterly reject @MisterBedfordshire unwarranted slurs about them
What I earn is between me and my clients and the taxman gets his cut - I don’t discuss what I earn with anyone to avoid any issues and frankly discussing wealth etc is pretty naff anyway.
The only benefit of displaying everyone’s tax return might be in dissuading people who don’t earn millions from trying to fake it until they make it by stretching themselves thin on cars and homes they can’t really afford as it would just show everyone what a clown they are.
But the actual reported experience chimes very well with stories I have heard about A&E from extended family/acquaintances etc.
Twenty hours in A&E is the longest I have heard first hand from a person I know.