if jacks ARSE is right then is it correct that the tories can form a minority government and could not be brought down in vote of no confidence as that now requires 55% of mps to vote.?
They still have to pass a Queen's speech, which - at the very least - requires the agreements of the Libs or the Nationalists
Mr. Eagles, scoff if you like, but that bad joke (told to me by my French teacher) has stuck in my head, just as the vicar's bicycle reminds me that adultery is the seventh commandment and stealing's the eighth.
That joke was also told to me by my French Teacher.
If I'm honest the French language is my favourite language after Latin.
French is of course the natural language of cats. You don't believe me? Well, leave aside the quotation from Emperor Charles V (usually misquoted but the correct original version is "I speak Spanish to God, Italian to women, English to men, German to my horse and French to my cat"), but consider the natural rhythms of the language and the purr of the cat. They fit like a well made pair of trousers. The Brute, my own cat, is as English as they come (he not only celebrates Trafalgar Day, 21st October, but also has a triple breakfast on the feast of St. Crispin four days later) yet get him on the sofa and talk to him in French and he becomes the most sensitive and caring of pets. Shirley, the nurse down at the vets and the only person who can get a tablet down any cat's throat without blood being spilt, is fluent in French.
If, Mr. Eagles, you get stuck in the Serengeti and about to be attacked by a lion or a leopard, talk to them in French - it may save your life..
Good to have independent confirmation. My cat only responds to French, which always puzzled me as he lived in a small cage in a mad Japanese lady's 6-tatami flat for the first six months, then with a somewhat less mad Korean lady, so I was wondering where he learned it.
The obvious conclusion is that cats speak French innately, and it was them that taught it to the French.
If cats taught French to the French, it would explain why the French are so off-hand. They appear to have learnt cats' manners as well.
... which raises the question, who are the ones who speak dog?
I am fairly sure that was the Romans. I have definitely come across dog Latin.
if jacks ARSE is right then is it correct that the tories can form a minority government and could not be brought down in vote of no confidence as that now requires 55% of mps to vote.?
They still have to pass a Queen's speech, which - at the very least - requires the agreements of the Libs or the Nationalists
They might also find it tricky to pass a finance bill - which given (I think) that Income tax needs a new bill to continue to be in place (as it is 'temporary') could be problematic.
No. The Euro would be a massive turn off. Ireland may be recovering from a deep trough - but they were in the trough significantly because of joining the Euro in the first place. If you had a choice to not join in the first place - well you'd be insane to join the Euro, especially if you did it in order to be 'independent'. (ie Brussels controls your tax and spend). The bottom line is that the only 'independent' currency option is to indeed be independent. If the Nats can't manage independence then they should shut up and stop wasting everyone's time.
Applying to join the EU using the Euro is about Scotland's only viable option if it gets independence.
Until they commit to use the Euro, rather than some half-arsed arrangement with the pound, why would Brussels even consider Scotland truly an independent country wanting to join the EU?
Inside the Euro Scotland would have all the financial independence of Greece. And be clear that the Eurozone is genuinely going to need central tax and spend control. Being in the Eurozone core and its emerging fiscal harmonisation is simply not compatible with the concept of independence. Fine if the Scots want to tell the Sassenachs to F off then fine - but the upshot in the Euro would be that Draghi and Brussels call the tune.
What we're discovering, and the reason it's going to be NO, is that Scotland doesn't really have currency options. The only viable option if they want independence is the Groat - and all the risks and finanical services exodus that would entail. Let's just agree on devomax and STFU.
usual bollocks from you , hope no-one takes financial advice from you. Imagine all those countries that struggle with their own currency , it must be really difficult.
Mr. G, if Scotland votes Yes and has to apply the EU (latter seems very likely) then you'll have to sign up to the euro.
I'm baffled by Yes voters who are pro-EU. I can see the case for Yes, but swapping (as you would see it) rule from London for rule from Brussels just seems mental.
The GERS analysis of Scotland's budget shows that Scotland would be worse off than the UK as a whole, at least this year. Last year, in fairness it showed the reverse.
Rather than obsessing on individual years I think the following points are relevant:
The figures show the volatility of the Scottish budget depending on the oil tax revenues in any one year.
Although these are indeed volatile the trend is very clear and it is sharply downwards. Bluntly in economic terms independence in 1974 was a no brainer. In 2014 not so much...
Although (thanks to north sea oil) Scotland contributes a significantly higher than average tax contribution it spends it all too (much of this because of the costs of providing services to rural areas of which we have an excessive number). In the last year we spent all the extra tax and then some.
Scotland would in each year be running a significant deficit. All that stuff about oil funds to provide for future generations is 1974 style tosh. Yet another example of Salmond dishonesty.
Another example was the Yes paper delivered in my area last month which claimed we would be better off by £600 (I think, may have been £300) a head. No doubt this will be carefully corrected in the next issue.
A new country with such a deficit would have obvious credibility issues in the markets. As a small country without the ability to print its way out of trouble default is a real possibility. That borrowing is going to be a lot more expensive than it is for the UK.
The pressure would be on to cut public spending. As a tory I think this might in itself be a good thing but other views are available, especially in Scotland.
So if we take one year into account and ignore the 30 years where it was better , we were a whole 0.1% worse off. That would really mean we would be in serious trouble.
Despite claiming to present Scotland’s financial position, the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland figures include higher costs for defence, debt and administrative services that should not apply to Scotland. The extra costs for services in the rest of the UK make Scotland’s finances appear worse than they actually are by billions of pounds every year. In the last 5 years these sectors cost Scotland £35 billion; yet Scotland did not receive or need £35 billion in services. Only in an independent Scotland will Scotland have full control over its own financial decisions and spending.
Mr. Eagles, scoff if you like, but that bad joke (told to me by my French teacher) has stuck in my head, just as the vicar's bicycle reminds me that adultery is the seventh commandment and stealing's the eighth.
That joke was also told to me by my French Teacher.
If I'm honest the French language is my favourite language after Latin.
French is of course the natural language of cats. You don't believe me? Well, leave aside the quotation from Emperor Charles V (usually misquoted but the correct original version is "I speak Spanish to God, Italian to women, English to men, German to my horse and French to my cat"), but consider the natural rhythms of the language and the purr of the cat. They fit like a well made pair of trousers. The Brute, my own cat, is as English as they come (he not only celebrates Trafalgar Day, 21st October, but also has a triple breakfast on the feast of St. Crispin four days later) yet get him on the sofa and talk to him in French and he becomes the most sensitive and caring of pets. Shirley, the nurse down at the vets and the only person who can get a tablet down any cat's throat without blood being spilt, is fluent in French.
If, Mr. Eagles, you get stuck in the Serengeti and about to be attacked by a lion or a leopard, talk to them in French - it may save your life..
Good to have independent confirmation. My cat only responds to French, which always puzzled me as he lived in a small cage in a mad Japanese lady's 6-tatami flat for the first six months, then with a somewhat less mad Korean lady, so I was wondering where he learned it.
The obvious conclusion is that cats speak French innately, and it was them that taught it to the French.
If cats taught French to the French, it would explain why the French are so off-hand. They appear to have learnt cats' manners as well.
... which raises the question, who are the ones who speak dog?
I am fairly sure that was the Romans. I have definitely come across dog Latin.
David, I think you are muddling dog latin with pig latin.
Mr. G, if Scotland votes Yes and has to apply the EU (latter seems very likely) then you'll have to sign up to the euro.
I'm baffled by Yes voters who are pro-EU. I can see the case for Yes, but swapping (as you would see it) rule from London for rule from Brussels just seems mental.
Morris, you have to meet a lot of criteria to get into the Euro , hence there are countries who are signed up and will never have it. You are not forced in or just get it , you just make sure you never pass all the tests. Very simple. Re Brussels. At very worst you make a lot of your own decisions when you are independent , at present we make NO decisions , everything is controlled by London whether we like it or not. EU rules are far better deal for us than current servitude.
Mr. G, one suspects that'll not be the case. Anyway, servitude is a shade dramatic.
As for no decisions, the SNP's dream of a currency union would mean Scotland having less influence on monetary policy and immediate restrictions on fiscal policy, which is a special sort of independence.
Mr. G, if Scotland votes Yes and has to apply the EU (latter seems very likely) then you'll have to sign up to the euro.
I'm baffled by Yes voters who are pro-EU. I can see the case for Yes, but swapping (as you would see it) rule from London for rule from Brussels just seems mental.
Morris, you have to meet a lot of criteria to get into the Euro , hence there are countries who are signed up and will never have it. You are not forced in or just get it , you just make sure you never pass all the tests. Very simple. Re Brussels. At very worst you make a lot of your own decisions when you are independent , at present we make NO decisions , everything is controlled by London whether we like it or not. EU rules are far better deal for us than current servitude.
Malc
If Eck had chosen integration within the Russian Federation as his principal referendum question, an independent Scotland would already be in the EU, or, at worst, in receipt of substantial EU subsidies.
The A new country with such a deficit would have obvious credibility issues in the markets. As a small country without the ability to print its way out of trouble default is a real possibility. That borrowing is going to be a lot more expensive than it is for the UK.
The pressure would be on to cut public spending. As a tory I think this might in itself be a good thing but other views are available, especially in Scotland.
So if we take one year into account and ignore the 30 years where it was better , we were a whole 0.1% worse off. That would really mean we would be in serious trouble.
Despite claiming to present Scotland’s financial position, the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland figures include higher costs for defence, debt and administrative services that should not apply to Scotland. The extra costs for services in the rest of the UK make Scotland’s finances appear worse than they actually are by billions of pounds every year. In the last 5 years these sectors cost Scotland £35 billion; yet Scotland did not receive or need £35 billion in services. Only in an independent Scotland will Scotland have full control over its own financial decisions and spending.
So we are not going to have any debt, or military capability or foreign office representation? Most of these will end up costing more if we have to do them on our own, not less. And it is not 0.1% by the way.
As I acknowledged if you go back to the peak oil years Scotland would clearly have been better off. But that money is spent. How are we to deal with the future?
As I said one year is no real basis for a decision but the trends, especially on oil revenues, are not great. Nothing is impossible but the Yes campaign are lying when they claim we would be better off. It is simply not true. For true Nats like yourself the price is worth it. Fair enough. But the lies....
Mr. G, one suspects that'll not be the case. Anyway, servitude is a shade dramatic.
As for no decisions, the SNP's dream of a currency union would mean Scotland having less influence on monetary policy and immediate restrictions on fiscal policy, which is a special sort of independence.
MD, it is merely a starting point in negotiations, at the end of the day we will be independent and have a currency , it will be the pound sterling but may be with or without agreement of rump UK or even a Scottish pound. I have never in all my life ever heard of a country not having a currency. It is a NON issue.
Mr. G, I'm not saying you'll have no currency if Yes wins, I'm saying all your options are bad. 1) The euro - plan A, but if that were popular it would've remained Salmond's preference 2) Pound with currency union - foreign country sets your monetary policy and limits your fiscal policy. Hardly independent 3) Pound without union - same applies to monetary policy and you have no lender of last resort. 4) Scottish pound - should probably be the priority, problem could be having that whilst trying to join the EU
The A new country with such a deficit would have obvious credibility issues in the markets. As a small country without the ability to print its way out of trouble default is a real possibility. That borrowing is going to be a lot more expensive than it is for the UK.
The pressure would be on to cut public spending. As a tory I think this might in itself be a good thing but other views are available, especially in Scotland.
So if we take one year into account and ignore the 30 years where it was better , we were a whole 0.1% worse off. That would really mean we would be in serious trouble.
Despite claiming to present Scotland’s financial position, the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland figures include higher costs for defence, debt and administrative services that should not apply to Scotland. The extra costs for services in the rest of the UK make Scotland’s finances appear worse than they actually are by billions of pounds every year. In the last 5 years these sectors cost Scotland £35 billion; yet Scotland did not receive or need £35 billion in services. Only in an independent Scotland will Scotland have full control over its own financial decisions and spending.
So we are not going to have any debt, or military capability or foreign office representation? Most of these will end up costing more if we have to do them on our own, not less. And it is not 0.1% by the way.
As I acknowledged if you go back to the peak oil years Scotland would clearly have been better off. But that money is spent. How are we to deal with the future?
As I said one year is no real basis for a decision but the trends, especially on oil revenues, are not great. Nothing is impossible but the Yes campaign are lying when they claim we would be better off. It is simply not true. For true Nats like yourself the price is worth it. Fair enough. But the lies....
David you cannot tell the future so worst you could say is they are optimistic. For sure we will be worse off in the union , given the austerity already planned till 2020. So it comes down to whether you prefer someone with hope and aspirations to improve things or NO hopers who see only gloom and doom ahead. I am with the glass half full guys, f*** the NO hopers.
Mr. L, sometimes you can't tell how good a game is from description alone. I could never get into Assassin's Creed 2, and assassinating people does sound quite exciting.
Mr. Eagles, scoff if you like, but that bad joke (told to me by my French teacher) has stuck in my head, just as the vicar's bicycle reminds me that adultery is the seventh commandment and stealing's the eighth.
That joke was also told to me by my French Teacher.
If I'm honest the French language is my favourite language after Latin.
French is of course the natural language of cats. You don't believe me? Well, leave aside the quotation from Emperor Charles V (usually misquoted but the correct original version is "I speak Spanish to God, Italian to women, English to men, German to my horse and French to my cat"), but consider the natural rhythms of the language and the purr of the cat. They fit like a well made pair of trousers. The Brute, my own cat, is as English as they come (he not only celebrates Trafalgar Day, 21st October, but also has a triple breakfast on the feast of St. Crispin four days later) yet get him on the sofa and talk to him in French and he becomes the most sensitive and caring of pets. Shirley, the nurse down at the vets and the only person who can get a tablet down any cat's throat without blood being spilt, is fluent in French.
If, Mr. Eagles, you get stuck in the Serengeti and about to be attacked by a lion or a leopard, talk to them in French - it may save your life..
Good to have independent confirmation. My cat only responds to French, which always puzzled me as he lived in a small cage in a mad Japanese lady's 6-tatami flat for the first six months, then with a somewhat less mad Korean lady, so I was wondering where he learned it.
The obvious conclusion is that cats speak French innately, and it was them that taught it to the French.
If cats taught French to the French, it would explain why the French are so off-hand. They appear to have learnt cats' manners as well.
... which raises the question, who are the ones who speak dog?
I am fairly sure that was the Romans. I have definitely come across dog Latin.
David, I think you are muddling dog latin with pig latin.
As in Cammius gullibilis.
I think you are barking up the wrong tree there Avery.
if jacks ARSE is right then is it correct that the tories can form a minority government and could not be brought down in vote of no confidence as that now requires 55% of mps to vote.?
They still have to pass a Queen's speech, which - at the very least - requires the agreements of the Libs or the Nationalists
They might also find it tricky to pass a finance bill - which given (I think) that Income tax needs a new bill to continue to be in place (as it is 'temporary') could be problematic.
Next year there will be two Finance Acts - one in March 2015 to reimpose income tax for 2015/2016 plus other, typically, non controversial measures; the other after the election to enact promises. In extrema there would be no need for another Finance Act until 2016.
Looking at the 2009 Euros, votes for others (non big 4) was over 20%. If this goes down increasing votes for the top parties, this would impede the fourth party from gaining seats based on a certain percentage of votes. This is because the electoral system is based on the ratio of the votes of the parties in contention and not on absolute percentages.
We are in an odd stage of the economic recovery. The big surprises are over: growth has been established and looks sustainable and attention has shifted to minor, or at least secondary, ailments such as productivity and real earnings growth, youth unemployment, regional imbalances and trade performance.
This month's ONS Economic Review contains no startling headline figures but it does indicate than many of these secondary problems are beginning to be solved.
Trade made a small but positive contribution to growth in 2013, accounting for 0.1% of total annual GDP growth of 1.8%. Nothing to shout about you say but this is a reversal of a long trend of trade contraction reducing growth.
Falls in productivity are becoming better understood. In aggregrate productivity growth has been flat over the course of this parliament following steep post-recessionary falls between 2008-10. But the average figures hides a lot of disparity between sectors. It is principally in the service sector where the falls in productivity have been highest. Manufacturing has in contrast increased its productivity rate since the recession. With the services sector, again there is a wide range of variation:
[T]he fall in output per hour in the services industry between Q1 2008 and Q4 2009 was broad based. All but three sub-industries saw average quarterly contractions in productivity over this period [...]. As a consequence, services output per hour declined from trend growth of 0.6% per quarter to an average contraction of 0.7% per quarter between Q1 2008 and Q4 2009.
However, while productivity has been broadly flat in services as a whole since 2009, [the latest figures] also suggest that productivity growth has resumed in several services sub-industries since Q4 2009. Growth in output per hour has broadly returned to its long-run trend in both arts, entertainment & recreation and other services, and is well above trend in administrative & support services. Output per hour growth has also resumed in the professional and wholesale & retail sub-industries, albeit well below trend. The main sectors which are limiting productivity growth in services are the finance & insurance, accommodation & food and transport & storage sub-industries.
So it looks as if UK productivity is recovering. All we need to do is persuade rcs1000, Charles and antifrank to pull their fingers out and everything will be hunky-dory.
But probably the biggest surprise in the Economic Review was the revelation that the proportion of economically inactive within the overall working age population has fallen to its lowest level since the days of Margaret Thatcher. IDS policies of getting Labour voters off their sofas and into work is triumphing. If you don't believe me, consult this table, excised from the ONS review and posted for all to admire:
I missed business investment, or more generally "Gross Fixed Capital Formation", in my list of 'secondary' economic metrics which have been giving concern since the recession.
Again the news from the ONS's March Economic Review is postive. Based on the second estimate of 2013 Q4 GDP, with revisions back to Q1 2013, it is clear that the trend in investment has changed over the past year:
While households have supported the growth of expenditure over the last two years, the second estimate suggested that investment played an enlarged role in the second half of 2013. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) – which has been relatively weak since the start of the economic recovery – grew in each quarter of 2013 and accounted for around half of all expenditure growth during Q4 2013. Business Investment – which is closely watched as an indicator of firm behaviour and forecast by the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) to grow strongly over 2014 – also grew for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q4 2013, and was 8.5% higher than the same quarter a year ago.
What, with trade providing a positive contribution to GDP and investment growing by 8.5% there is enough here to send another_richard into an apoplectic fit. Even Mr. Brooke should be silenced by the news.
Looking at the 2009 Euros, votes for others (non big 4) was over 20%. If this goes down increasing votes for the top parties, this would impede the fourth party from gaining seats based on a certain percentage of votes. This is because the electoral system is based on the ratio of the votes of the parties in contention and not on absolute percentages.
I think the 'NO2EU' party was an RMT/Bob Crow creation. I wonder if they'll be on the ballot this time?
With todays results at cheltenham champagne fevers defeat yesterday cost me a life changing sum. I did a five timer two months ago and four won. I still can't believe champagne got beat by that horse, I have just watched the race again, the tears are flowing lol !
There was some analysis in the poll shedding some light on the relationship between the Tories and Ukip voters.With all this talk of electoral pacts or arrangements between the 2 parties,it is clear from the responses they do not like each other. "In past years, the Lib Dems picked up support from all sides, but after seeing them govern in coalition, more people (56%) would automatically rule them out than the Tories. Again, however, it is the limits of Ukip's appeal that comes through most clearly of all: 59% say they could never lend Farage their support in a general election.
Of course, May's European elections are another matter, but with 62% of even Tory voters saying they could never back Ukip at Westminster, it is hard to imagine it breaking the political mould. On the other hand, the Tories face grave difficulties in winning back support already lost to Ukip – 59% of Ukip voters say they could never vote for the Tories, against a mere 38% who say they would consider it."
There was some analysis in the poll shedding some light on the relationship between the Tories and Ukip voters.With all this talk of electoral pacts or arrangements between the 2 parties,it is clear from the responses they do not like each other. "In past years, the Lib Dems picked up support from all sides, but after seeing them govern in coalition, more people (56%) would automatically rule them out than the Tories. Again, however, it is the limits of Ukip's appeal that comes through most clearly of all: 59% say they could never lend Farage their support in a general election.
Of course, May's European elections are another matter, but with 62% of even Tory voters saying they could never back Ukip at Westminster, it is hard to imagine it breaking the political mould. On the other hand, the Tories face grave difficulties in winning back support already lost to Ukip – 59% of Ukip voters say they could never vote for the Tories, against a mere 38% who say they would consider it."
This is one poll. In January ComRes found UKIP to be the nation's favourite party. The preferred 2nd choice for Labour and Conservative voters.
There is a lot of variation in the support different pollsters find for UKIP. They can't all be right.
That you regard productivity as a minor issue is revealing.
Increased wealth creation and improved living standards are impossible without increasing productivity.
Yet productivity in this country was lower in 2013 than in 2006. The trillion pounds of debt run since then is directly related to this failing.
Back in 2007 when I first started commenting here I asked how in a globalised world economy British living standards will be maintained when we are now competing with people as intelligent and educated as ourselves but who are willing to work harder for less money and under fewer regulations.
I've never received an answer.
Since then our productivity has fallen, our unit labour costs have increased by 15% and we've added a trillion quid of debt while flogging off assets to any foreigner who wants to buy them.
What happens when when we run out of football clubs and Mayfair mansions to sell ?
"The main sectors which are limiting productivity growth in services are the finance & insurance"
You might like to take that issue up with our City cultist friend RN.
On the productivty issue it is worth contrasting spin with reality.
We are told that London is an economic wonder, the envy of the world, we're lucky to have it, blah and blah. We are told that the City is an economic wonder, the envy of the world, we're lucky to have it, blah and blah. We are told that economic migrants are an economic wonder, the envy of the world, we're lucky to have them, blah and blah.
Yet the Venn diagram centre for these three things of service sector productivity is so weak.
Am I Toto pulling back the curtain or the little boy pointing at the naked Emperor ?
Mr. L, sometimes you can't tell how good a game is from description alone. I could never get into Assassin's Creed 2, and assassinating people does sound quite exciting.
I'm waiting for (and a backer of) Elite: Dangerous.
The original game got me into programming; from wire-frame 3D graphics to Markovian lists (chains). Since I couldn't get things working fast enough in Basic, I taught myself assembler. first 6502, later ARM.
So from one game as a pre-teen, I got into the thoroughly debauched and hedonistic worlds of computer programming. Don't believe all the hype about the geeky ways of programmers: we just show that to hide the wild excesses of our lifestyles ...
Mr. Jessop, had I the funds to spare I might well have backed Kingdom Come: Deliverance. Think Skyrim, without magic, set in central Europe around the 14th century.
Edited extra bit: got to say I'm not into multiplayer, and not just because I have the social skills of a great white shark. I think the last multiplayer action I had was in Bushido Blade (Mega Drive). I was bloody good at that game.
Looking at the 2009 Euros, votes for others (non big 4) was over 20%. If this goes down increasing votes for the top parties, this would impede the fourth party from gaining seats based on a certain percentage of votes. This is because the electoral system is based on the ratio of the votes of the parties in contention and not on absolute percentages.
The chairman of the Senior Citizen's Party gave a speech at the recent UKIP conference. He announced some kind of partnership with UKIP, so perhaps there won't be any Senior Citizen Party candidates this time round?
(He also mentioned that 43% of the electorate are >50!)
As productivity was still growing between 2003 and 2007 its possible that productivity growth during the previous decade will be even lower during the next few years.
That productivity growth is running at a quarter of the rate achieved during the recession hit / three day week / IMF crisis / winter of discontent 1973-1983 period is an illustration of how bad our fundamental problems are.
Hmm. Dressed For Success (by Roxette) is on Absolute 80s. Is it me, or does it have a very similar backing track to Transvision Vamp's Baby I Don't Care?
For your productivity analysis to be meaningful, you need to strip out oil & gas. It's a high productivity sector that grew rapidy in the 70s and is in run-down now so distorts the figures for reasons unconnected with overall economic performance or government policy (accepting that Osborne's ill-considered tax changes had a negative impact but this was temporary rather than fundamental)
Well google Ian Lavery MP Michael Jackson and see what links you get.
I'm provided with links to many newspapers - Telegraph, Mail, Sun, Mirror even the Times of Mumbai - to Guido, to Politics Home and to numerous other sites I've never heard of before.
But for some reason I see no link to coverage in the BBC or the Guardian.
Surely such anti-racism stalwarts gave it full coverage ?
Mr. Richard, I couldn't find the slavery reparations story on the BBC website either. Didn't spend ages looking, but did check a few pages, and was a bit surprised.
For your productivity analysis to be meaningful, you need to strip out oil & gas. It's a high productivity sector that grew rapidy in the 70s and is in run-down now so distorts the figures for reasons unconnected with overall economic performance or government policy (accepting that Osborne's ill-considered tax changes had a negative impact but this was temporary rather than fundamental)
So basically if you remove the inconvenient facts the remaining picture looks better. When people stoop to that tactic they've already lost the argument.
Although how the rise and fall of North Sea Oil has caused service sector productivity to be lower now that it was seven years ago I'll leave you to explain.
Not to mention that the rundown period of North Sea Oil was predicted back in the 1970s. Perhaps the PPE boys should have factored that into their economic predictions or maybe they expected North Sea Oil to be adequately replaced by subsidised windmills, rising house prices and economic migrants handwashing cars.
Comments
I'm baffled by Yes voters who are pro-EU. I can see the case for Yes, but swapping (as you would see it) rule from London for rule from Brussels just seems mental.
Despite claiming to present Scotland’s financial position, the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland figures include higher costs for defence, debt and administrative services that should not apply to Scotland.
The extra costs for services in the rest of the UK make Scotland’s finances appear worse than they actually are by billions of pounds every year. In the last 5 years these sectors cost Scotland £35 billion; yet Scotland did not receive or need £35 billion in services. Only in an independent Scotland will Scotland have full control over its own financial decisions and spending.
As in Cammius gullibilis.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/welsh-schoolchildren-risk-mental-impairment-2496685
Bring back school milk.
EU rules are far better deal for us than current servitude.
If SPF then that's great news as it means Valo will have fixed their problems.
As for no decisions, the SNP's dream of a currency union would mean Scotland having less influence on monetary policy and immediate restrictions on fiscal policy, which is a special sort of independence.
If Eck had chosen integration within the Russian Federation as his principal referendum question, an independent Scotland would already be in the EU, or, at worst, in receipt of substantial EU subsidies.
As I acknowledged if you go back to the peak oil years Scotland would clearly have been better off. But that money is spent. How are we to deal with the future?
As I said one year is no real basis for a decision but the trends, especially on oil revenues, are not great. Nothing is impossible but the Yes campaign are lying when they claim we would be better off. It is simply not true. For true Nats like yourself the price is worth it. Fair enough. But the lies....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-26527109
As an aside, if Assassin's Creed 4 wins that'd be a bloody disgrace.
1) The euro - plan A, but if that were popular it would've remained Salmond's preference
2) Pound with currency union - foreign country sets your monetary policy and limits your fiscal policy. Hardly independent
3) Pound without union - same applies to monetary policy and you have no lender of last resort.
4) Scottish pound - should probably be the priority, problem could be having that whilst trying to join the EU
So it comes down to whether you prefer someone with hope and aspirations to improve things or NO hopers who see only gloom and doom ahead.
I am with the glass half full guys, f*** the NO hopers.
I am really not into computer games but that sounds numbingly tedious.
Sheffield Heeley (Meg Munn from 2001 intake retiring) AWS
Batley and Spen (Mike Wood from 1997 intake retiring) AWS
That is a crazy new account offer.
Looking at the 2009 Euros, votes for others (non big 4) was over 20%. If this goes down increasing votes for the top parties, this would impede the fourth party from gaining seats based on a certain percentage of votes. This is because the electoral system is based on the ratio of the votes of the parties in contention and not on absolute percentages.
This month's ONS Economic Review contains no startling headline figures but it does indicate than many of these secondary problems are beginning to be solved.
Trade made a small but positive contribution to growth in 2013, accounting for 0.1% of total annual GDP growth of 1.8%. Nothing to shout about you say but this is a reversal of a long trend of trade contraction reducing growth.
Falls in productivity are becoming better understood. In aggregrate productivity growth has been flat over the course of this parliament following steep post-recessionary falls between 2008-10. But the average figures hides a lot of disparity between sectors. It is principally in the service sector where the falls in productivity have been highest. Manufacturing has in contrast increased its productivity rate since the recession. With the services sector, again there is a wide range of variation:
[T]he fall in output per hour in the services industry between Q1 2008 and Q4 2009 was broad based. All but three sub-industries saw average quarterly contractions in productivity over this period [...]. As a consequence, services output per hour declined from trend growth of 0.6% per quarter to an average contraction of 0.7% per quarter between Q1 2008 and Q4 2009.
However, while productivity has been broadly flat in services as a whole since 2009, [the latest figures] also suggest that productivity growth has resumed in several services sub-industries since Q4 2009. Growth in output per hour has broadly returned to its long-run trend in both arts, entertainment & recreation and other services, and is well above trend in administrative & support services. Output per hour growth has also resumed in the professional and wholesale & retail sub-industries, albeit well below trend. The main sectors which are limiting productivity growth in services are the finance & insurance, accommodation & food and transport & storage sub-industries.
So it looks as if UK productivity is recovering. All we need to do is persuade rcs1000, Charles and antifrank to pull their fingers out and everything will be hunky-dory.
But probably the biggest surprise in the Economic Review was the revelation that the proportion of economically inactive within the overall working age population has fallen to its lowest level since the days of Margaret Thatcher. IDS policies of getting Labour voters off their sofas and into work is triumphing. If you don't believe me, consult this table, excised from the ONS review and posted for all to admire:
http://s13.postimg.org/g75aknhzr/ONS_ER_03_14_Figure_4.png
All that remains to be said is "Floreat Etona".
Again the news from the ONS's March Economic Review is postive. Based on the second estimate of 2013 Q4 GDP, with revisions back to Q1 2013, it is clear that the trend in investment has changed over the past year:
While households have supported the growth of expenditure over the last two years, the second estimate suggested that investment played an enlarged role in the second half of 2013. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) – which has been relatively weak since the start of the economic recovery – grew in each quarter of 2013 and accounted for around half of all expenditure growth during Q4 2013. Business Investment – which is closely watched as an indicator of firm behaviour and forecast by the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) to grow strongly over 2014 – also grew for a fourth consecutive quarter in Q4 2013, and was 8.5% higher than the same quarter a year ago.
What, with trade providing a positive contribution to GDP and investment growing by 8.5% there is enough here to send another_richard into an apoplectic fit. Even Mr. Brooke should be silenced by the news.
"In past years, the Lib Dems picked up support from all sides, but after seeing them govern in coalition, more people (56%) would automatically rule them out than the Tories. Again, however, it is the limits of Ukip's appeal that comes through most clearly of all: 59% say they could never lend Farage their support in a general election.
Of course, May's European elections are another matter, but with 62% of even Tory voters saying they could never back Ukip at Westminster, it is hard to imagine it breaking the political mould. On the other hand, the Tories face grave difficulties in winning back support already lost to Ukip – 59% of Ukip voters say they could never vote for the Tories, against a mere 38% who say they would consider it."
There is a lot of variation in the support different pollsters find for UKIP. They can't all be right.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7744
That you regard productivity as a minor issue is revealing.
Increased wealth creation and improved living standards are impossible without increasing productivity.
Yet productivity in this country was lower in 2013 than in 2006. The trillion pounds of debt run since then is directly related to this failing.
Back in 2007 when I first started commenting here I asked how in a globalised world economy British living standards will be maintained when we are now competing with people as intelligent and educated as ourselves but who are willing to work harder for less money and under fewer regulations.
I've never received an answer.
Since then our productivity has fallen, our unit labour costs have increased by 15% and we've added a trillion quid of debt while flogging off assets to any foreigner who wants to buy them.
What happens when when we run out of football clubs and Mayfair mansions to sell ?
You might like to take that issue up with our City cultist friend RN.
On the productivty issue it is worth contrasting spin with reality.
We are told that London is an economic wonder, the envy of the world, we're lucky to have it, blah and blah.
We are told that the City is an economic wonder, the envy of the world, we're lucky to have it, blah and blah.
We are told that economic migrants are an economic wonder, the envy of the world, we're lucky to have them, blah and blah.
Yet the Venn diagram centre for these three things of service sector productivity is so weak.
Am I Toto pulling back the curtain or the little boy pointing at the naked Emperor ?
The original game got me into programming; from wire-frame 3D graphics to Markovian lists (chains). Since I couldn't get things working fast enough in Basic, I taught myself assembler. first 6502, later ARM.
So from one game as a pre-teen, I got into the thoroughly debauched and hedonistic worlds of computer programming. Don't believe all the hype about the geeky ways of programmers: we just show that to hide the wild excesses of our lifestyles ...
http://elite.frontier.co.uk/
Edited extra bit: got to say I'm not into multiplayer, and not just because I have the social skills of a great white shark. I think the last multiplayer action I had was in Bushido Blade (Mega Drive). I was bloody good at that game.
(He also mentioned that 43% of the electorate are >50!)
http://youtu.be/0Vt_cglf6UY
Do Libertas and the Jury Team still exist?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Great_Britain_and_Gibraltar_.E2.80.93_overall_result
2003-2013 5%
1993-2003 27%
1983-1993 27%
1973-1983 19%
1963-1973 41%
As productivity was still growing between 2003 and 2007 its possible that productivity growth during the previous decade will be even lower during the next few years.
That productivity growth is running at a quarter of the rate achieved during the recession hit / three day week / IMF crisis / winter of discontent 1973-1983 period is an illustration of how bad our fundamental problems are.
I backed Le Bec, who fell. I backed Goodwood Mirage, who fell.
I have not yet decided which horses will be handed the black spot tomorrow
For your productivity analysis to be meaningful, you need to strip out oil & gas. It's a high productivity sector that grew rapidy in the 70s and is in run-down now so distorts the figures for reasons unconnected with overall economic performance or government policy (accepting that Osborne's ill-considered tax changes had a negative impact but this was temporary rather than fundamental)
Well google Ian Lavery MP Michael Jackson and see what links you get.
I'm provided with links to many newspapers - Telegraph, Mail, Sun, Mirror even the Times of Mumbai - to Guido, to Politics Home and to numerous other sites I've never heard of before.
But for some reason I see no link to coverage in the BBC or the Guardian.
Surely such anti-racism stalwarts gave it full coverage ?
https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?hl=en-GB&q=N6.7+E105.63&gbv=2&ie=UTF-8
Although how the rise and fall of North Sea Oil has caused service sector productivity to be lower now that it was seven years ago I'll leave you to explain.
Not to mention that the rundown period of North Sea Oil was predicted back in the 1970s. Perhaps the PPE boys should have factored that into their economic predictions or maybe they expected North Sea Oil to be adequately replaced by subsidised windmills, rising house prices and economic migrants handwashing cars.
Service sector productivity - output per hour from the ONS:
1997 80.3
1998 82.4
1999 83.2
2000 86.7
2001 87.5
2002 88.8
2003 92.2
2004 94.5
2005 96.8
2006 99.2
2007 102.3
2008 102.3
2009 99.6
2010 100.0
2011 100.8
2012 99.6
2013 99.2
I have to do other things now but I will return to see what Charles can come up with.