politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM poll: UKIP the least liked and most disliked party
In its latest poll ICM has introduced a new measure – party like/dislike ratings where interviewees are asked to rate each main party on a seven point scale. The outline figures can be seen above.
That's not necessarily a bad sign in a multi-party environment. It means you've got a strong brand that stands for something. It's great for council elections and the Euros, at least. Maybe not so much for Westminster FPTP seats, where the anti-UKIP majority will gang up on them anywhere they look like they might actually win.
European egg production fell 0.6% in January, but was still up 5.1% year-over-year.
What's your view on falling industrial production in the EU. Our figure wasn't great but we still had some growth, Europe seems to have fallen back into a contraction. France and the Netherlands lookvery bad.
well worth repeating this fantastic riposte from Hurst on previous thread. Good to see that one of our southern brethern have such a grasp of the Scottish position , wish that there were more intelligent people who could pick it up as firmly.
CarlottaVance said:
Scotland’s finances are almost £300 per person deeper in the red than the UK’s, according to figures unveiled by Alex Salmond today that prompted warnings taxes would increase after independence.
MS Vance, The figures unveiled by Mr. Salmond demonstrate beyond all shadow of a doubt that an independent Scotland would be one of the wealthiest countries on the planet (on a per capita basis) and will have more than adequate capability to save up for a rainy day.
Mr. Salmond's announcement is being misrepresented and spun by Tory lickspittles, cowards, liars, stalinist revanchists, maoist running-dogs and splitters who are determined to hold Scotland back from its manifest destiny of showing the way forward for the down trodden masses labouring under the jackboot of Thatcherite neo-conservatism.
I think I covered all the points there that Messrs G and Pork would have had they been on line to read your post.
How much have the Lib Dem dislike scores increased since 2010? Do the ComRes favourability ratings go back that far? It could have a big bearing on their ability to win tactical votes.
I wonder about the quality of some journalists...Shouting "Allahu Akbar", doesn't mean "God is Great", it means God is THE GREATEST, or GOD is GREATER (than everything else). Subtle but very important difference.
European egg production fell 0.6% in January, but was still up 5.1% year-over-year.
What's your view on falling industrial production in the EU. Our figure wasn't great but we still had some growth, Europe seems to have fallen back into a contraction. France and the Netherlands lookvery bad.
Most of the European industrial production numbers had weaker than expected sequential growth in January, combined with upward revisions to December numbers. This meant that - in general year-over-year numbers were roughly as expected. (This was particularly true of the Netherlands, where December growth was increased from 2.6% to 3.6%.)
Whizzing down the numbers out this week:
UK +2.9% y-o-y Netherlands 2.0% Italy +1.4% Spain +1.1% Greece +1.1% France -0.1%
The month-on-month numbers are pretty volatile, not uniformly seasonally adjusted, and not available for all countries. But, France was negative, the UK was just 0.1%, and the Netherlands was standout horrible -3.1%.
Overall, the Eurozone did -0.2% month-over-month (worse than expected), and +2.1% year-over-year (better than expected)
Mr. Eagles, scoff if you like, but that bad joke (told to me by my French teacher) has stuck in my head, just as the vicar's bicycle reminds me that adultery is the seventh commandment and stealing's the eighth.
Mr. Eagles, scoff if you like, but that bad joke (told to me by my French teacher) has stuck in my head, just as the vicar's bicycle reminds me that adultery is the seventh commandment and stealing's the eighth.
Any chance of explaining the vicar's bicycle - not seeing it immediately?
Mr. Eagles, scoff if you like, but that bad joke (told to me by my French teacher) has stuck in my head, just as the vicar's bicycle reminds me that adultery is the seventh commandment and stealing's the eighth.
That joke was also told to me by my French Teacher.
If I'm honest the French language is my favourite language after Latin.
.Shouting "Allahu Akbar", doesn't mean "God is Great", it means God is THE GREATEST, or GOD is GREATER (than everything else). Subtle but very important difference.
Is 'Akbar' a general superlative? could we be hearing 'Bradfordu Akbar' on the footie terraces in the decades to come??
Mr. Lennon, it's not obvious, from the little I said.
A vicar was cycling round the village, visiting his parishioners ahead of his service. However, he lost his bike, and decided to do a sermon about the ten commandments (using his bicycle theft to highlight the eighth, thou shalt not steal). When he was working through the commandments, he realised what came before 'thou shalt not steal'* and remembered he'd left his bicycle outside another house...
European egg production fell 0.6% in January, but was still up 5.1% year-over-year.
What's your view on falling industrial production in the EU. Our figure wasn't great but we still had some growth, Europe seems to have fallen back into a contraction. France and the Netherlands lookvery bad.
Most of the European industrial production numbers had weaker than expected sequential growth in January, combined with upward revisions to December numbers. This meant that - in general year-over-year numbers were roughly as expected. (This was particularly true of the Netherlands, where December growth was increased from 2.6% to 3.6%.)
Whizzing down the numbers out this week:
UK +2.9% y-o-y Netherlands 2.0% Italy +1.4% Spain +1.1% Greece +1.1% France -0.1%
The month-on-month numbers are pretty volatile, not uniformly seasonally adjusted, and not available for all countries. But, France was negative, the UK was just 0.1%, and the Netherlands was standout horrible -3.1%.
Overall, the Eurozone did -0.2% month-over-month (worse than expected), and +2.1% year-over-year (better than expected)
That's an old sleight of hand though. Revise the previous month upwards, announce a bad set if figures then revise the old ones back down in the mean time. The French statistics agency is particularly good at this trick.
.Shouting "Allahu Akbar", doesn't mean "God is Great", it means God is THE GREATEST, or GOD is GREATER (than everything else). Subtle but very important difference.
Is 'Akbar' a general superlative? could we be hearing 'Bradfordu Akbar' on the footie terraces in the decades to come??
Akbar was the name of the Admiral in Return of the Jedi that led the Rebel alliance attack on the second Death Star orbiting the Forest Moon of Endor.
I wonder if Allahu Akbar, and the shouting thereof, might be, as it were, a marketing failure. Just about everyone in Syria seems to shout it (regardless of their side), which makes it easier to feel they're all basically the same. It's also, obviously, very tied into the religious belief.
I wonder if Allahu Akbar, and the shouting thereof, might be, as it were, a marketing failure. Just about everyone in Syria seems to shout it (regardless of their side), which makes it easier to feel they're all basically the same. It's also, obviously, very tied into the religious belief.
Muslims have annoying habit of prefixing/suffixing/shouting every sentence with Inshallah, ameen, Allahu Akhbar, Lila illala ilaha illa-ilah, Mohammed rasulu-ilah.
It is an attempt to show everyone that you're more Islamic/religious than thou.
.Shouting "Allahu Akbar", doesn't mean "God is Great", it means God is THE GREATEST, or GOD is GREATER (than everything else). Subtle but very important difference.
Is 'Akbar' a general superlative? could we be hearing 'Bradfordu Akbar' on the footie terraces in the decades to come??
Akbar was the name of the Admiral in Return of the Jedi that led the Rebel alliance attack on the second Death Star orbiting the Forest Moon of Endor.
.Shouting "Allahu Akbar", doesn't mean "God is Great", it means God is THE GREATEST, or GOD is GREATER (than everything else). Subtle but very important difference.
Is 'Akbar' a general superlative? could we be hearing 'Bradfordu Akbar' on the footie terraces in the decades to come??
Akbar was the name of the Admiral in Return of the Jedi that led the Rebel alliance attack on the second Death Star orbiting the Forest Moon of Endor.
Backed 1 PT Sire De Grugy to win, laid him to place For Zero result other than 2, 3 (Potential profit 1 PT) Backed Captain Conan (Free Bet) to win (5/6 of a PT) Backd Tiara Star E/W (Free Bet) ! (0.5 PT E/W)
UKIP probably won't be too adversely affected by a high 'dislike' rating. They are not significant enough as a party to motivate many people to come out and vote just to vote against UKIP.
Mr. Eagles, reminds me of China, where the chap who pays for a meal at a restaurant has the highest status. I saw two chaps literally taking the other's money out of a waitress' hand before pressing their own money into it.
Mr. Eagles, scoff if you like, but that bad joke (told to me by my French teacher) has stuck in my head, just as the vicar's bicycle reminds me that adultery is the seventh commandment and stealing's the eighth.
That joke was also told to me by my French Teacher.
If I'm honest the French language is my favourite language after Latin.
French is of course the natural language of cats. You don't believe me? Well, leave aside the quotation from Emperor Charles V (usually misquoted but the correct original version is "I speak Spanish to God, Italian to women, English to men, German to my horse and French to my cat"), but consider the natural rhythms of the language and the purr of the cat. They fit like a well made pair of trousers. The Brute, my own cat, is as English as they come (he not only celebrates Trafalgar Day, 21st October, but also has a triple breakfast on the feast of St. Crispin four days later) yet get him on the sofa and talk to him in French and he becomes the most sensitive and caring of pets. Shirley, the nurse down at the vets and the only person who can get a tablet down any cat's throat without blood being spilt, is fluent in French.
If, Mr. Eagles, you get stuck in the Serengeti and about to be attacked by a lion or a leopard, talk to them in French - it may save your life..
Fantastic. Great control for 7 year olds. They tend to play with no more than 2 touches and concentrate on getting the players to move without the ball to support their team mates. I found watching Arsenal that they did not really play as a team. They looked like a team of strangers that were brought together just before the match. Arsenal need to buy a few new players before next season, who are natural leaders on the pitch. There is no point buying players like Ozil, as he is not a leader. If he losses the ball or is up against a few opponents, he seems to give up.
Mr. Eagles, reminds me of China, where the chap who pays for a meal at a restaurant has the highest status. I saw two chaps literally taking the other's money out of a waitress' hand before pressing their own money into it.
Mr. Eagles, scoff if you like, but that bad joke (told to me by my French teacher) has stuck in my head, just as the vicar's bicycle reminds me that adultery is the seventh commandment and stealing's the eighth.
That joke was also told to me by my French Teacher.
If I'm honest the French language is my favourite language after Latin.
French is of course the natural language of cats. You don't believe me? Well, leave aside the quotation from Emperor Charles V (usually misquoted but the correct original version is "I speak Spanish to God, Italian to women, English to men, German to my horse and French to my cat"), but consider the natural rhythms of the language and the purr of the cat. They fit like a well made pair of trousers. The Brute, my own cat, is as English as they come (he not only celebrates Trafalgar Day, 21st October, but also has a triple breakfast on the feast of St. Crispin four days later) yet get him on the sofa and talk to him in French and he becomes the most sensitive and caring of pets. Shirley, the nurse down at the vets and the only person who can get a tablet down any cat's throat without blood being spilt, is fluent in French.
If, Mr. Eagles, you get stuck in the Serengeti and about to be attacked by a lion or a leopard, talk to them in French - it may save your life..
When I was in America I was told to sing to oncoming bears to calm them down.
I was also told to pee near them to mark my territory.
I assured my host if I saw an oncoming bear I would be peeing in every direction without his advice.
Mr. Eagles, apparently you should raised your left hand so its palm faces a nearby bear. That'll usually make it stop or slink away. Raising the other palm as well can stop a more persistent bear. If neither of those things works, your life expectancy may be shorter than a gnome's todger.
Bears are fascinating animals. Clever, omnivorous, capable of walking on all fours or hind legs, they can climb trees and swim, have great dexterity, can run as fast as a horse and have a better sense of smell than a dog.
Why are the Tories disliked more than Labour ? My theory is that most UK voters are slightly left of centre pragmatic liberals. Those on the left who may have backed the Liberal Democrats are probably now permanently with Labour. This is the reason why Labour are at about 38% in the polls and the Tories are generally 34% or below. If you look at the polling data, Labour have a larger poll lead amongst people of working age. Many of these people do not appear to believe that the coalition have implemented fair policies. The question is often raised, as to whether Women voters have a problem with the Tories and it appears that many do.
well worth repeating this fantastic riposte from Hurst on previous thread. Good to see that one of our southern brethern have such a grasp of the Scottish position , wish that there were more intelligent people who could pick it up as firmly.
CarlottaVance said:
Scotland’s finances are almost £300 per person deeper in the red than the UK’s, according to figures unveiled by Alex Salmond today that prompted warnings taxes would increase after independence.
MS Vance, The figures unveiled by Mr. Salmond demonstrate beyond all shadow of a doubt that an independent Scotland would be one of the wealthiest countries on the planet (on a per capita basis) and will have more than adequate capability to save up for a rainy day.
Mr. Salmond's announcement is being misrepresented and spun by Tory lickspittles, cowards, liars, stalinist revanchists, maoist running-dogs and splitters who are determined to hold Scotland back from its manifest destiny of showing the way forward for the down trodden masses labouring under the jackboot of Thatcherite neo-conservatism.
I think I covered all the points there that Messrs G and Pork would have had they been on line to read your post.
I see the odds on a Yes vote are drifting out. And that generous 1/4 against No, from William Hill, is now 2/9.
Mr. 67, I suspect it's down to a few things: 1) Labour are a bit more about playing the man, not the ball 2) Labour's strengths are soft and fuzzy (health/education), the Conservatives' are tough (law and order/defence) 3) The criticism of Labour is often they're nice but dim, whereas the Conservatives are likelier to be seen as heartless (it's easier to like a moron who tries than a stone cold chap who happens to be competent)
On women: they're likelier to be more interested in the softer areas I mentioned above. I think it's as simple as that (well, maybe that and the feminist sisters of Labour playing identity politics, though thankfully the vast majority of women are above such tosh).
Mr. Eagles, scoff if you like, but that bad joke (told to me by my French teacher) has stuck in my head, just as the vicar's bicycle reminds me that adultery is the seventh commandment and stealing's the eighth.
That joke was also told to me by my French Teacher.
If I'm honest the French language is my favourite language after Latin.
French is of course the natural language of cats. You don't believe me? Well, leave aside the quotation from Emperor Charles V (usually misquoted but the correct original version is "I speak Spanish to God, Italian to women, English to men, German to my horse and French to my cat"), but consider the natural rhythms of the language and the purr of the cat. They fit like a well made pair of trousers. The Brute, my own cat, is as English as they come (he not only celebrates Trafalgar Day, 21st October, but also has a triple breakfast on the feast of St. Crispin four days later) yet get him on the sofa and talk to him in French and he becomes the most sensitive and caring of pets. Shirley, the nurse down at the vets and the only person who can get a tablet down any cat's throat without blood being spilt, is fluent in French.
If, Mr. Eagles, you get stuck in the Serengeti and about to be attacked by a lion or a leopard, talk to them in French - it may save your life..
Good to have independent confirmation. My cat only responds to French, which always puzzled me as he lived in a small cage in a mad Japanese lady's 6-tatami flat for the first six months, then with a somewhat less mad Korean lady, so I was wondering where he learned it.
The obvious conclusion is that cats speak French innately, and it was them that taught it to the French.
Fantastic. Great control for 7 year olds. They tend to play with no more than 2 touches and concentrate on getting the players to move without the ball to support their team mates. I found watching Arsenal that they did not really play as a team. They looked like a team of strangers that were brought together just before the match. Arsenal need to buy a few new players before next season, who are natural leaders on the pitch. There is no point buying players like Ozil, as he is not a leader. If he losses the ball or is up against a few opponents, he seems to give up.
That's where the much maligned John Terry is so important, it's not just about ability but also leadership.
well worth repeating this fantastic riposte from Hurst on previous thread. Good to see that one of our southern brethern have such a grasp of the Scottish position , wish that there were more intelligent people who could pick it up as firmly.
CarlottaVance said:
Scotland’s finances are almost £300 per person deeper in the red than the UK’s, according to figures unveiled by Alex Salmond today that prompted warnings taxes would increase after independence.
MS Vance, The figures unveiled by Mr. Salmond demonstrate beyond all shadow of a doubt that an independent Scotland would be one of the wealthiest countries on the planet (on a per capita basis) and will have more than adequate capability to save up for a rainy day.
Mr. Salmond's announcement is being misrepresented and spun by Tory lickspittles, cowards, liars, stalinist revanchists, maoist running-dogs and splitters who are determined to hold Scotland back from its manifest destiny of showing the way forward for the down trodden masses labouring under the jackboot of Thatcherite neo-conservatism.
I think I covered all the points there that Messrs G and Pork would have had they been on line to read your post.
I see the odds on a Yes vote are drifting out. And that generous 1/4 against No, from William Hill, is now 2/9.
That's because the currency issue is much the most important - and it's also the one that still only 6 monthst to go, has no answer. Or at least no coherent one:
Mr. Eagles, apparently you should raised your left hand so its palm faces a nearby bear. That'll usually make it stop or slink away. Raising the other palm as well can stop a more persistent bear. If neither of those things works, your life expectancy may be shorter than a gnome's todger.
Bears are fascinating animals. Clever, omnivorous, capable of walking on all fours or hind legs, they can climb trees and swim, have great dexterity, can run as fast as a horse and have a better sense of smell than a dog.
Mr. Dancer, I always thought the way to survive a bear attack was to be with someone who was a slower runner than you. Though I suppose if you had such a person in your team who was prepared to stand there giving the Home Office Traffic Signal Number 1 whilst you legged it that would be all to the good.
Agree that bears are fascinating creatures though.
well worth repeating this fantastic riposte from Hurst on previous thread. Good to see that one of our southern brethern have such a grasp of the Scottish position , wish that there were more intelligent people who could pick it up as firmly.
CarlottaVance said:
Scotland’s finances are almost £300 per person deeper in the red than the UK’s, according to figures unveiled by Alex Salmond today that prompted warnings taxes would increase after independence.
MS Vance, The figures unveiled by Mr. Salmond demonstrate beyond all shadow of a doubt that an independent Scotland would be one of the wealthiest countries on the planet (on a per capita basis) and will have more than adequate capability to save up for a rainy day.
Mr. Salmond's announcement is being misrepresented and spun by Tory lickspittles, cowards, liars, stalinist revanchists, maoist running-dogs and splitters who are determined to hold Scotland back from its manifest destiny of showing the way forward for the down trodden masses labouring under the jackboot of Thatcherite neo-conservatism.
I think I covered all the points there that Messrs G and Pork would have had they been on line to read your post.
I see the odds on a Yes vote are drifting out. And that generous 1/4 against No, from William Hill, is now 2/9.
That's because the currency issue is much the most important - and it's also the one that still only 6 monthst to go, has no answer. Or at least no coherent one:
Soros says Scotland should join the Euro - I reckon if Salmond had stuck to that policy he would be in a better position now. Look at Ireland - it is turning the corner.
Mr. Llama, can't be certain, but running from a dog is a good way to make him chase you (I once did this to capture an escaped hound and hold it until a distraught 10 year old could catch up and put his lead on). If the same works for bears, running would not be clever.
How can you tell the difference between a black bear and a brown bear?
Climb a tree. If it's black, it'll climb up after you. If it's brown, it'll push the tree down.
Mr. Eagles, apparently you should raised your left hand so its palm faces a nearby bear. That'll usually make it stop or slink away. Raising the other palm as well can stop a more persistent bear. If neither of those things works, your life expectancy may be shorter than a gnome's todger.
Bears are fascinating animals. Clever, omnivorous, capable of walking on all fours or hind legs, they can climb trees and swim, have great dexterity, can run as fast as a horse and have a better sense of smell than a dog.
Mr. Dancer, I always thought the way to survive a bear attack was to be with someone who was a slower runner than you. Though I suppose if you had such a person in your team who was prepared to stand there giving the Home Office Traffic Signal Number 1 whilst you legged it that would be all to the good.
Agree that bears are fascinating creatures though.
Silly as it sounds but the Rough Guide to Canada recommends talking softly to a bear . May be the most important speech of your life!!
Mr. Llama, can't be certain, but running from a dog is a good way to make him chase you (I once did this to capture an escaped hound and hold it until a distraught 10 year old could catch up and put his lead on). If the same works for bears, running would not be clever.
How can you tell the difference between a black bear and a brown bear?
Climb a tree. If it's black, it'll climb up after you. If it's brown, it'll push the tree down.
Yup, apparently bears have a chase instinct. The advice over here is to avoid eye contact and back away slowly while clapping loudly and shouting "kuma" which means "bear". Then if that fails you're supposed to try to punch them on the nose.
well worth repeating this fantastic riposte from Hurst on previous thread. Good to see that one of our southern brethern have such a grasp of the Scottish position , wish that there were more intelligent people who could pick it up as firmly.
CarlottaVance said:
Scotland’s finances are almost £300 per person deeper in the red than the UK’s, according to figures unveiled by Alex Salmond today that prompted warnings taxes would increase after independence.
MS Vance, The figures unveiled by Mr. Salmond demonstrate beyond all shadow of a doubt that an independent Scotland would be one of the wealthiest countries on the planet (on a per capita basis) and will have more than adequate capability to save up for a rainy day.
Mr. Salmond's announcement is being misrepresented and spun by Tory lickspittles, cowards, liars, stalinist revanchists, maoist running-dogs and splitters who are determined to hold Scotland back from its manifest destiny of showing the way forward for the down trodden masses labouring under the jackboot of Thatcherite neo-conservatism.
I think I covered all the points there that Messrs G and Pork would have had they been on line to read your post.
I see the odds on a Yes vote are drifting out. And that generous 1/4 against No, from William Hill, is now 2/9.
That's because the currency issue is much the most important - and it's also the one that still only 6 monthst to go, has no answer. Or at least no coherent one:
Soros says Scotland should join the Euro - I reckon if Salmond had stuck to that policy he would be in a better position now. Look at Ireland - it is turning the corner.
No. The Euro would be a massive turn off. Ireland may be recovering from a deep trough - but they were in the trough significantly because of joining the Euro in the first place. If you had a choice to not join in the first place - well you'd be insane to join the Euro, especially if you did it in order to be 'independent'. (ie Brussels controls your tax and spend). The bottom line is that the only 'independent' currency option is to indeed be independent. If the Nats can't manage independence then they should shut up and stop wasting everyone's time.
Mr. Llama, can't be certain, but running from a dog is a good way to make him chase you (I once did this to capture an escaped hound and hold it until a distraught 10 year old could catch up and put his lead on). If the same works for bears, running would not be clever.
How can you tell the difference between a black bear and a brown bear?
Climb a tree. If it's black, it'll climb up after you. If it's brown, it'll push the tree down.
Mr. D, You missed my point, I think. If one is in company with another then one doesn't have to outrun the bear only your "friend". Therefore when walking in ursine infested territory make sure you are with someone who can't run faster than you.
Mr. Tokyo, I can't help but feel the 'punch them on the nose' advice is not very helpful. Leaving aside the fact a bear on its hind legs can be about 10 feet tall, getting near enough to punch it would also mean getting near enough for it to swipe you.
Mr. Eagles, apparently you should raised your left hand so its palm faces a nearby bear. That'll usually make it stop or slink away. Raising the other palm as well can stop a more persistent bear. If neither of those things works, your life expectancy may be shorter than a gnome's todger.
Bears are fascinating animals. Clever, omnivorous, capable of walking on all fours or hind legs, they can climb trees and swim, have great dexterity, can run as fast as a horse and have a better sense of smell than a dog.
Mr. Dancer, I always thought the way to survive a bear attack was to be with someone who was a slower runner than you. Though I suppose if you had such a person in your team who was prepared to stand there giving the Home Office Traffic Signal Number 1 whilst you legged it that would be all to the good.
Agree that bears are fascinating creatures though.
Silly as it sounds but the Rough Guide to Canada recommends talking softly to a bear . May be the most important speech of your life!!
I wonder if the authors of that Rough Guide tried out their own advice and if they did what language they used.
Mr. Llama, I have the image of you and a disabled neighbour who you 'kindly' take on holiday to exotic and dangerous locations, for the specific purpose of being bear-bait should an ursine menace arise. You beast!
That's an old sleight of hand though. Revise the previous month upwards, announce a bad set if figures then revise the old ones back down in the mean time. The French statistics agency is particularly good at this trick.
I don't think it works like that: the job of the economic statistics agency is to find the absolute level of economic activity in the period, and from that derive the growth rate. So, their current estimate of January is - say - 120 UoW (units of work). If December is revised back down to 115, then it changes the growth number for January, not the number of UoW produced in the month.
It's worth remembering how statistics office collect and publish data. They send out surveys to a subset of businesses, who take their time in completing and returning them. As more data is received, economic statistics get revised time-and-time again. Because early ones contain considerable amounts of estimations, they can be wildly wrong. In months where economic activity tends to be naturally modest (like January) or in a period where there are other factors (like the weather in the UK this January and February) these discrepancies can be large.
Revisions to GDP and industrial data tend not to recieve as much attention as headline numbers, which is a shame.
Since mid 2013, growth statistics have tended to be unduly pessimistic in Europe (the same was true of the US between mid 2012 and the end of 2013), and there have been more upward revisions than downward ones. However, there is no guarantee this will continue. I prefer to put more faith in the Markit, Adecco, and SWIFTdata than the official government statistics.
Mr. Eagles, apparently you should raised your left hand so its palm faces a nearby bear. That'll usually make it stop or slink away. Raising the other palm as well can stop a more persistent bear. If neither of those things works, your life expectancy may be shorter than a gnome's todger.
Bears are fascinating animals. Clever, omnivorous, capable of walking on all fours or hind legs, they can climb trees and swim, have great dexterity, can run as fast as a horse and have a better sense of smell than a dog.
Mr. Dancer, I always thought the way to survive a bear attack was to be with someone who was a slower runner than you. Though I suppose if you had such a person in your team who was prepared to stand there giving the Home Office Traffic Signal Number 1 whilst you legged it that would be all to the good.
Agree that bears are fascinating creatures though.
Silly as it sounds but the Rough Guide to Canada recommends talking softly to a bear . May be the most important speech of your life!!
I wonder if the authors of that Rough Guide tried out their own advice and if they did what language they used.
Franglais I would imagine. BTW I think punching on the nose is more for your average crocodile or shark. Playing dead is also recommended by the Rough Guide (if you are attacked)
No. The Euro would be a massive turn off. Ireland may be recovering from a deep trough - but they were in the trough significantly because of joining the Euro in the first place. If you had a choice to not join in the first place - well you'd be insane to join the Euro, especially if you did it in order to be 'independent'. (ie Brussels controls your tax and spend). The bottom line is that the only 'independent' currency option is to indeed be independent. If the Nats can't manage independence then they should shut up and stop wasting everyone's time.
Applying to join the EU using the Euro is about Scotland's only viable option if it gets independence.
Until they commit to use the Euro, rather than some half-arsed arrangement with the pound, why would Brussels even consider Scotland truly an independent country wanting to join the EU?
If you look at the polling data, Labour have a larger poll lead amongst people of working age.
Trouble is, 4 out of 5 of all these people work in the private sector. Ed is no friend to the private sector.
I don't buy the public/private sector argument. Many private sector companies rely to a certain extent on contracts from the public sector. If any government reduces the money available to public sector or make changes, it can affect private sector companies.
When you say Ed is not a friend to the private sector, what specific policies are you referring to ? What policies are the Tories offering which are better for the private sector ? I can remember Labour introducing many investment or tax incentives to private sector companies and there were large numbers of private sector start ups when Labour were in government. There was a bad period following the 2008 recession and it has picked up again over recent years.
On women: they're likelier to be more interested in the softer areas I mentioned above. I think it's as simple as that (well, maybe that and the feminist sisters of Labour playing identity politics, though thankfully the vast majority of women are above such tosh).
It's very anecdotal, but I've encountered enough cases to notice of couples where the woman is planning to vote Labour but the man simply isn't going to vote at all. "I try to tell him it's his duty but he just won't, the idle bugger" [fond look]. "Huh. Wastatime." Is there any turnout certainty polling data broken down by gender?
Richard N on the last thread assures us that there will be a referendum in 2017 under a Tory government even without a Treaty. Tell us more! Let's assume that negotiations are statting to get under way, and the Government has asked for X, Y and Z, Do we know what the question will be? "Yes, let's stay in if we get X, Y and Z" vs "No, let's leave"? Or "Yes for the status quo" vs No? Or something else?
But bear advice, it depends on the if a black or brown / Grizzly bear (who can also be almost black in colour all the way through to blonde), what should be your defacto approach i.e softly softly quiet, or making as much noise as possible.
The real fun comes when you enter an area where both types are known to co-exist...it is a bit late by the time you work out which of these beasts is within spitting distance of you.
The best advice I got from a local in Yellowstone was "lots of bear spray and a big ass gun [which is allowed in the park, but I ain't going in there without one]"
No. The Euro would be a massive turn off. Ireland may be recovering from a deep trough - but they were in the trough significantly because of joining the Euro in the first place. If you had a choice to not join in the first place - well you'd be insane to join the Euro, especially if you did it in order to be 'independent'. (ie Brussels controls your tax and spend). The bottom line is that the only 'independent' currency option is to indeed be independent. If the Nats can't manage independence then they should shut up and stop wasting everyone's time.
Applying to join the EU using the Euro is about Scotland's only viable option if it gets independence.
Until they commit to use the Euro, rather than some half-arsed arrangement with the pound, why would Brussels even consider Scotland truly an independent country wanting to join the EU?
Inside the Euro Scotland would have all the financial independence of Greece. And be clear that the Eurozone is genuinely going to need central tax and spend control. Being in the Eurozone core and its emerging fiscal harmonisation is simply not compatible with the concept of independence. Fine if the Scots want to tell the Sassenachs to F off then fine - but the upshot in the Euro would be that Draghi and Brussels call the tune.
What we're discovering, and the reason it's going to be NO, is that Scotland doesn't really have currency options. The only viable option if they want independence is the Groat - and all the risks and finanical services exodus that would entail. Let's just agree on devomax and STFU.
Mr. Llama, I have the image of you and a disabled neighbour who you 'kindly' take on holiday to exotic and dangerous locations, for the specific purpose of being bear-bait should an ursine menace arise. You beast!
Nah, not me, Mr. Dancer, my wandering days are over and the most exotic place I am likely to visit is Normandy and they don't have bears there any more. Might be a tactic for Sir Edric in a future story though.
On women: they're likelier to be more interested in the softer areas I mentioned above. I think it's as simple as that (well, maybe that and the feminist sisters of Labour playing identity politics, though thankfully the vast majority of women are above such tosh).
It's very anecdotal, but I've encountered enough cases to notice of couples where the woman is planning to vote Labour but the man simply isn't going to vote at all. "I try to tell him it's his duty but he just won't, the idle bugger" [fond look]. "Huh. Wastatime." Is there any turnout certainty polling data broken down by gender?
Richard N on the last thread assures us that there will be a referendum in 2017 under a Tory government even without a Treaty. Tell us more! Let's assume that negotiations are statting to get under way, and the Government has asked for X, Y and Z, Do we know what the question will be? "Yes, let's stay in if we get X, Y and Z" vs "No, let's leave"? Or "Yes for the status quo" vs No? Or something else?
Or worse, the Tories look like coming back with X and Y but one or two of our partners want to think further about Z. What does Cameron do then?
Mr. Llama, perhaps not so far off [I almost had the scenario, albeit with wolves, in Ch1 of my work-in-progress].
Once you buy into the basic line of thought - taking along a "sacrifice" - the permutations with wolves, bears whatever are almost endless.
By the way, I said a post or so ago that the most exotic place I am likely to visit is Normandy. That isn't true. Herself, who read that post, has reminded me that we have plans to re-visit Yorkshire, North Lancashire and Northumberland - all of which are far more exotic than Normandy.
The GERS analysis of Scotland's budget shows that Scotland would be worse off than the UK as a whole, at least this year. Last year, in fairness it showed the reverse.
Rather than obsessing on individual years I think the following points are relevant:
The figures show the volatility of the Scottish budget depending on the oil tax revenues in any one year.
Although these are indeed volatile the trend is very clear and it is sharply downwards. Bluntly in economic terms independence in 1974 was a no brainer. In 2014 not so much...
Although (thanks to north sea oil) Scotland contributes a significantly higher than average tax contribution it spends it all too (much of this because of the costs of providing services to rural areas of which we have an excessive number). In the last year we spent all the extra tax and then some.
Scotland would in each year be running a significant deficit. All that stuff about oil funds to provide for future generations is 1974 style tosh. Yet another example of Salmond dishonesty.
Another example was the Yes paper delivered in my area last month which claimed we would be better off by £600 (I think, may have been £300) a head. No doubt this will be carefully corrected in the next issue.
A new country with such a deficit would have obvious credibility issues in the markets. As a small country without the ability to print its way out of trouble default is a real possibility. That borrowing is going to be a lot more expensive than it is for the UK.
The pressure would be on to cut public spending. As a tory I think this might in itself be a good thing but other views are available, especially in Scotland.
Have 2 pts staked on the 16:40. Think I'm in profit... But I also feel I shd be alot more in profit (2 photo 2nds)
Not having a good day. A few hundred notes across 10 horses has seen me almost exactly break even but with two of them still to run in the 4:40. Fingers crossed for something out of the afternoon.
Inside the Euro, Ukraine would have all the financial independence of Greece. And be clear that the Eurozone is genuinely going to need central tax and spend control. Being in the Eurozone core and its emerging fiscal harmonisation is simply not compatible with the concept of independence. Fine if the Ukrainians want to tell the Russians to F off then fine - but the upshot in the Euro would be that Draghi and Brussels call the tune.
Inside the Euro, Ukraine would have all the financial independence of Greece. And be clear that the Eurozone is genuinely going to need central tax and spend control. Being in the Eurozone core and its emerging fiscal harmonisation is simply not compatible with the concept of independence. Fine if the Ukrainians want to tell the Russians to F off then fine - but the upshot in the Euro would be that Draghi and Brussels call the tune.
LOL!
I would like to point out one thing re the Euro.
So long as you run a budget surplus, keep government debt to a minimum, don't have a debt fuelled housing boom and don't have a large indigenous finance industry, then you'll do fine.
Have 2 pts staked on the 16:40. Think I'm in profit... But I also feel I shd be alot more in profit (2 photo 2nds)
Not having a good day. A few hundred notes across 10 horses has seen me almost exactly break even but with two of them still to run in the 4:40. Fingers crossed for something out of the afternoon.
Mr. Eagles, scoff if you like, but that bad joke (told to me by my French teacher) has stuck in my head, just as the vicar's bicycle reminds me that adultery is the seventh commandment and stealing's the eighth.
That joke was also told to me by my French Teacher.
If I'm honest the French language is my favourite language after Latin.
French is of course the natural language of cats. You don't believe me? Well, leave aside the quotation from Emperor Charles V (usually misquoted but the correct original version is "I speak Spanish to God, Italian to women, English to men, German to my horse and French to my cat"), but consider the natural rhythms of the language and the purr of the cat. They fit like a well made pair of trousers. The Brute, my own cat, is as English as they come (he not only celebrates Trafalgar Day, 21st October, but also has a triple breakfast on the feast of St. Crispin four days later) yet get him on the sofa and talk to him in French and he becomes the most sensitive and caring of pets. Shirley, the nurse down at the vets and the only person who can get a tablet down any cat's throat without blood being spilt, is fluent in French.
If, Mr. Eagles, you get stuck in the Serengeti and about to be attacked by a lion or a leopard, talk to them in French - it may save your life..
Good to have independent confirmation. My cat only responds to French, which always puzzled me as he lived in a small cage in a mad Japanese lady's 6-tatami flat for the first six months, then with a somewhat less mad Korean lady, so I was wondering where he learned it.
The obvious conclusion is that cats speak French innately, and it was them that taught it to the French.
If cats taught French to the French, it would explain why the French are so off-hand. They appear to have learnt cats' manners as well.
if jacks ARSE is right then is it correct that the tories can form a minority government and could not be brought down in vote of no confidence as that now requires 55% of mps to vote.?
Mr. Eagles, scoff if you like, but that bad joke (told to me by my French teacher) has stuck in my head, just as the vicar's bicycle reminds me that adultery is the seventh commandment and stealing's the eighth.
That joke was also told to me by my French Teacher.
If I'm honest the French language is my favourite language after Latin.
French is of course the natural language of cats. You don't believe me? Well, leave aside the quotation from Emperor Charles V (usually misquoted but the correct original version is "I speak Spanish to God, Italian to women, English to men, German to my horse and French to my cat"), but consider the natural rhythms of the language and the purr of the cat. They fit like a well made pair of trousers. The Brute, my own cat, is as English as they come (he not only celebrates Trafalgar Day, 21st October, but also has a triple breakfast on the feast of St. Crispin four days later) yet get him on the sofa and talk to him in French and he becomes the most sensitive and caring of pets. Shirley, the nurse down at the vets and the only person who can get a tablet down any cat's throat without blood being spilt, is fluent in French.
If, Mr. Eagles, you get stuck in the Serengeti and about to be attacked by a lion or a leopard, talk to them in French - it may save your life..
Good to have independent confirmation. My cat only responds to French, which always puzzled me as he lived in a small cage in a mad Japanese lady's 6-tatami flat for the first six months, then with a somewhat less mad Korean lady, so I was wondering where he learned it.
The obvious conclusion is that cats speak French innately, and it was them that taught it to the French.
If cats taught French to the French, it would explain why the French are so off-hand. They appear to have learnt cats' manners as well.
... which raises the question, who are the ones who speak dog?
Comments
Not surprising for Ukip I suppose - a divisive party.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-tops-independent-on-sunday-poll-as-the-nations-favourite-party-9069625.html
European egg production fell 0.6% in January, but was still up 5.1% year-over-year.
Smashing story.
Must you keep spoon-feeding us?
Eggcellent, cracking story.
Surely the yoke's on you?
Roux Jr quits BBC as they wouldn't let him sell tatties
CarlottaVance said:
Scotland’s finances are almost £300 per person deeper in the red than the UK’s, according to figures unveiled by Alex Salmond today that prompted warnings taxes would increase after independence.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10692466/Scotland-300-per-person-deeper-in-the-red-than-the-UK.html
MS Vance, The figures unveiled by Mr. Salmond demonstrate beyond all shadow of a doubt that an independent Scotland would be one of the wealthiest countries on the planet (on a per capita basis) and will have more than adequate capability to save up for a rainy day.
Mr. Salmond's announcement is being misrepresented and spun by Tory lickspittles, cowards, liars, stalinist revanchists, maoist running-dogs and splitters who are determined to hold Scotland back from its manifest destiny of showing the way forward for the down trodden masses labouring under the jackboot of Thatcherite neo-conservatism.
I think I covered all the points there that Messrs G and Pork would have had they been on line to read your post.
Because in France one egg is un œuf.
I'll get my coat.
LAB -4%
CON -19%
LD -34%
UKIP -39%
How much have the Lib Dem dislike scores increased since 2010? Do the ComRes favourability ratings go back that far? It could have a big bearing on their ability to win tactical votes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26452992
I wonder about the quality of some journalists...Shouting "Allahu Akbar", doesn't mean "God is Great", it means God is THE GREATEST, or GOD is GREATER (than everything else). Subtle but very important difference.
Whizzing down the numbers out this week:
UK +2.9% y-o-y
Netherlands 2.0%
Italy +1.4%
Spain +1.1%
Greece +1.1%
France -0.1%
The month-on-month numbers are pretty volatile, not uniformly seasonally adjusted, and not available for all countries. But, France was negative, the UK was just 0.1%, and the Netherlands was standout horrible -3.1%.
Overall, the Eurozone did -0.2% month-over-month (worse than expected), and +2.1% year-over-year (better than expected)
If I'm honest the French language is my favourite language after Latin.
DONE ON THE BOB !!!!!!!!!!!!!
£3.00 EW Single 12/03/2014 10:16:48 6.00 0.00
Is 'Akbar' a general superlative? could we be hearing 'Bradfordu Akbar' on the footie terraces in the decades to come??
A vicar was cycling round the village, visiting his parishioners ahead of his service. However, he lost his bike, and decided to do a sermon about the ten commandments (using his bicycle theft to highlight the eighth, thou shalt not steal). When he was working through the commandments, he realised what came before 'thou shalt not steal'* and remembered he'd left his bicycle outside another house...
*thou shalt not commit adultery, of course.
That's why us Muslims are such fans of Star Wars.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-26543802
The tories really must feel that 'party of the rich' is labour's most potent weapon.
It is an attempt to show everyone that you're more Islamic/religious than thou.
It is bloody annoying.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admiral_Ackbar
http://starwars.com/explore/encyclopedia/characters/ackbar/
Welsh labour education meltdown latest. Coming to a town near you if you vote for ed.
Anyone can help search for the missing aircraft at this address:
http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/malaysiaairsar2014
https://twitter.com/tomnod
Muslim oneupmansship is annoying.
It kind of sticks in your head. I'm someone who is a Muslim twice a year and I remember it all and I'm someone who has tried to repress it all.
I once witnessed two men argue on who was the more pious. It ended with a Quran off. On who could recite the most of the Quran memory.
Backed Captain Conan (Free Bet) to win (5/6 of a PT)
Backd Tiara Star E/W (Free Bet) ! (0.5 PT E/W)
Mr. Eagles, reminds me of China, where the chap who pays for a meal at a restaurant has the highest status. I saw two chaps literally taking the other's money out of a waitress' hand before pressing their own money into it.
Didn't see the race. What happened?
If, Mr. Eagles, you get stuck in the Serengeti and about to be attacked by a lion or a leopard, talk to them in French - it may save your life..
HE'LL PROBABLY WIN IT NOW !
I was also told to pee near them to mark my territory.
I assured my host if I saw an oncoming bear I would be peeing in every direction without his advice.
Bears are fascinating animals. Clever, omnivorous, capable of walking on all fours or hind legs, they can climb trees and swim, have great dexterity, can run as fast as a horse and have a better sense of smell than a dog.
Why are the Tories disliked more than Labour ? My theory is that most UK voters are slightly left of centre pragmatic liberals. Those on the left who may have backed the Liberal Democrats are probably now permanently with Labour. This is the reason why Labour are at about 38% in the polls and the Tories are generally 34% or below. If you look at the polling data, Labour have a larger poll lead amongst people of working age. Many of these people do not appear to believe that the coalition have implemented fair policies. The question is often raised, as to whether Women voters have a problem with the Tories and it appears that many do.
POP ! Glug glug glug glug - cheers !
He was either going to win that or bomb completely.
And he won
£15.63 profit anyway on the race.
1) Labour are a bit more about playing the man, not the ball
2) Labour's strengths are soft and fuzzy (health/education), the Conservatives' are tough (law and order/defence)
3) The criticism of Labour is often they're nice but dim, whereas the Conservatives are likelier to be seen as heartless (it's easier to like a moron who tries than a stone cold chap who happens to be competent)
On women: they're likelier to be more interested in the softer areas I mentioned above. I think it's as simple as that (well, maybe that and the feminist sisters of Labour playing identity politics, though thankfully the vast majority of women are above such tosh).
The obvious conclusion is that cats speak French innately, and it was them that taught it to the
French.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10692558/George-Soros-Scotland-sharing-the-pound-after-independence-is-impossible.html
Trouble is, 4 out of 5 of all these people work in the private sector. Ed is no friend to the private sector.
Agree that bears are fascinating creatures though.
His white blaze reminds me of Our Conor though ;(
How can you tell the difference between a black bear and a brown bear?
Climb a tree. If it's black, it'll climb up after you. If it's brown, it'll push the tree down.
Silly as it sounds but the Rough Guide to Canada recommends talking softly to a bear . May be the most important speech of your life!!
It's worth remembering how statistics office collect and publish data. They send out surveys to a subset of businesses, who take their time in completing and returning them. As more data is received, economic statistics get revised time-and-time again. Because early ones contain considerable amounts of estimations, they can be wildly wrong. In months where economic activity tends to be naturally modest (like January) or in a period where there are other factors (like the weather in the UK this January and February) these discrepancies can be large.
Revisions to GDP and industrial data tend not to recieve as much attention as headline numbers, which is a shame.
Since mid 2013, growth statistics have tended to be unduly pessimistic in Europe (the same was true of the US between mid 2012 and the end of 2013), and there have been more upward revisions than downward ones. However, there is no guarantee this will continue. I prefer to put more faith in the Markit, Adecco, and SWIFTdata than the official government statistics.
http://i61.tinypic.com/313ksc5.png
Until they commit to use the Euro, rather than some half-arsed arrangement with the pound, why would Brussels even consider Scotland truly an independent country wanting to join the EU?
When you say Ed is not a friend to the private sector, what specific policies are you referring to ? What policies are the Tories offering which are better for the private sector ? I can remember Labour introducing many investment or tax incentives to private sector companies and there were large numbers of private sector start ups when Labour were in government. There was a bad period following the 2008 recession and it has picked up again over recent years.
Richard N on the last thread assures us that there will be a referendum in 2017 under a Tory government even without a Treaty. Tell us more! Let's assume that negotiations are statting to get under way, and the Government has asked for X, Y and Z, Do we know what the question will be? "Yes, let's stay in if we get X, Y and Z" vs "No, let's leave"? Or "Yes for the status quo" vs No? Or something else?
But bear advice, it depends on the if a black or brown / Grizzly bear (who can also be almost black in colour all the way through to blonde), what should be your defacto approach i.e softly softly quiet, or making as much noise as possible.
The real fun comes when you enter an area where both types are known to co-exist...it is a bit late by the time you work out which of these beasts is within spitting distance of you.
The best advice I got from a local in Yellowstone was "lots of bear spray and a big ass gun [which is allowed in the park, but I ain't going in there without one]"
What we're discovering, and the reason it's going to be NO, is that Scotland doesn't really have currency options. The only viable option if they want independence is the Groat - and all the risks and finanical services exodus that would entail. Let's just agree on devomax and STFU.
By the way, I said a post or so ago that the most exotic place I am likely to visit is Normandy. That isn't true. Herself, who read that post, has reminded me that we have plans to re-visit Yorkshire, North Lancashire and Northumberland - all of which are far more exotic than Normandy.
Rather than obsessing on individual years I think the following points are relevant:
The figures show the volatility of the Scottish budget depending on the oil tax revenues in any one year.
Although these are indeed volatile the trend is very clear and it is sharply downwards. Bluntly in economic terms independence in 1974 was a no brainer. In 2014 not so much...
Although (thanks to north sea oil) Scotland contributes a significantly higher than average tax contribution it spends it all too (much of this because of the costs of providing services to rural areas of which we have an excessive number). In the last year we spent all the extra tax and then some.
Scotland would in each year be running a significant deficit. All that stuff about oil funds to provide for future generations is 1974 style tosh. Yet another example of Salmond dishonesty.
Another example was the Yes paper delivered in my area last month which claimed we would be better off by £600 (I think, may have been £300) a head. No doubt this will be carefully corrected in the next issue.
A new country with such a deficit would have obvious credibility issues in the markets. As a small country without the ability to print its way out of trouble default is a real possibility. That borrowing is going to be a lot more expensive than it is for the UK.
The pressure would be on to cut public spending. As a tory I think this might in itself be a good thing but other views are available, especially in Scotland.
Inside the Euro, Ukraine would have all the financial independence of Greece. And be clear that the Eurozone is genuinely going to need central tax and spend control. Being in the Eurozone core and its emerging fiscal harmonisation is simply not compatible with the concept of independence. Fine if the Ukrainians want to tell the Russians to F off then fine - but the upshot in the Euro would be that Draghi and Brussels call the tune.
I would like to point out one thing re the Euro.
So long as you run a budget surplus, keep government debt to a minimum, don't have a debt fuelled housing boom and don't have a large indigenous finance industry, then you'll do fine.