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Making your mind up – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,879
    edited July 20

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    This is not difficult. The big bits are continents and the little bits are islands. No man is an island intire of itself, every man is part of a continent - John Donne. You are one or the other. Plate tectonics has no bearing on the fact. You think it's about continents because Wegener. Also you are committed to saying Spain and Portugal are part of Africa. Happy with that?
    No man is an island, entire of itself. Except, of course, the Isle of Man.
    And Lord Sandwich
    Even the Isle of Lewis isn't entire of itself (Isle of Harris same).
    But has anyone convinced them?
    On the subject of fake islands, look at the Black Isle - neither an isle, nor black.
    Isle of Purbeck

    Examples which make a nonsense of the claim that we have to revise the definition of continent. It's not like it was only in the 20th century we realised that everything is joined together underneath. Places like Lindisfarne were also a pretty major clue.
    Talking of the Black Isle, why is the flag of Puerto Rico flying in Jemimaville?

    https://www.google.com/maps/@57.6576969,-4.1524941,3a,15y,27.73h,90.25t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1svmKH2NgZAAcXZE4bawtBXg!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu

  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,879
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    This is not difficult. The big bits are continents and the little bits are islands. No man is an island intire of itself, every man is part of a continent - John Donne. You are one or the other. Plate tectonics has no bearing on the fact. You think it's about continents because Wegener. Also you are committed to saying Spain and Portugal are part of Africa. Happy with that?
    No man is an island, entire of itself. Except, of course, the Isle of Man.
    And Lord Sandwich
    Even the Isle of Lewis isn't entire of itself (Isle of Harris same).
    But has anyone convinced them?
    On the subject of fake islands, look at the Black Isle - neither an isle, nor black.
    Isle of Purbeck

    Examples which make a nonsense of the claim that we have to revise the definition of continent. It's not like it was only in the 20th century we realised that everything is joined together underneath. Places like Lindisfarne were also a pretty major clue.
    Talking of the Black Isle, why is the flag of Puerto Rico flying in Jemimaville?

    https://www.google.com/maps/@57.6576969,-4.1524941,3a,15y,27.73h,90.25t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1svmKH2NgZAAcXZE4bawtBXg!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu

    Hmm. Quantity of stripes looks wrong.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,437
    edited July 20

    Crowdstrike: apologies if I am the last person to realise this, but its impact was probably greater because companies installed it after the US government banned Kapersky, its Russian competitor.

    I've seen a couple of code dissections of the failure on Twitter, and it seems a fairly bog-standard C++ null pointer dereference. Something that should really have been caught easily. Especially as it appears to happen every time, and not just in weird edge- or corner- cases.
    The cursed null pointer. Still haunting us all decades after C was introduced. :fearful:
    That's what amazed me about this, as someone who was writing low-level C / asm code 25 years ago. The dangers of NULL pointers were well known back then (and, indeed, all the myriad of issues pointers can cause...), and therefore we had tools and processes to try to prevent them. This was even more the case for extremely low-level code, such as the kernel or low-level drivers (in C at least; asm was harder...)

    That little low-level piece of code should have been reviewed and tested to within an inch of its life, and had large warning signs all over it: "Here be dragons!!!".

    Of course, there's always the possibility that this *was* some weird edge case interaction between things; but the fact it bricked things immediately and seemingly reliably, indicates to me that it was just something obvious and dumb.
    Obvious, dumb and untested.
    The errant file seems to be mostly nulls.

    I wonder if the problem was not the testing but the deployment? Did the wrong file get sent out?

    Seems odd that they have to get a driver signed by Microsoft for it to run but the config file to go with it can contain any old junk.

    BTW, those of you with long memories might recall this:
    https://www.theregister.com/2010/04/21/mcafee_false_positive/

    I understand that the current CEO of CrowdStrike was CTO of McAfee at the time.

    Fail upwards, eh?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,694
    edited July 20

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,426

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    In the series, Elementary, on meeting the Sebastian Moran, who murdered Irene Adler…

    Sherlock Holmes: Arsenal fan. As if I didn't have enough reasons to despise you.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,879
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    This is not difficult. The big bits are continents and the little bits are islands. No man is an island intire of itself, every man is part of a continent - John Donne. You are one or the other. Plate tectonics has no bearing on the fact. You think it's about continents because Wegener. Also you are committed to saying Spain and Portugal are part of Africa. Happy with that?
    No man is an island, entire of itself. Except, of course, the Isle of Man.
    And Lord Sandwich
    Even the Isle of Lewis isn't entire of itself (Isle of Harris same).
    But has anyone convinced them?
    On the subject of fake islands, look at the Black Isle - neither an isle, nor black.
    Isle of Purbeck

    Examples which make a nonsense of the claim that we have to revise the definition of continent. It's not like it was only in the 20th century we realised that everything is joined together underneath. Places like Lindisfarne were also a pretty major clue.
    Talking of the Black Isle, why is the flag of Puerto Rico flying in Jemimaville?

    https://www.google.com/maps/@57.6576969,-4.1524941,3a,15y,27.73h,90.25t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1svmKH2NgZAAcXZE4bawtBXg!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu

    Hmm. Quantity of stripes looks wrong.
    Verdict - I think it's a worn out Estelada.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,554
    kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    We saw quite a few Reform voters on election day when knocking up. So people who said they would or probably would vote LD who when knocked up confirmed they had voted Reform. They were voting against the Govt so LD was their choice when canvassed, but switched their protest vote to Reform. They were all normal nice everyday people, but then we would not have been knocking up the hard core Reform voters who would have been Reform from the outset.

    The LDs have had decades mastering their way around the FPTP system. Even with all our success in the past at doing so we have never scored a proportional result until now. The targeting was really ruthless and the effort massive. We put out about 13 leaflets/letters here, canvassed nearly the whole constituency and had hundreds of posters up. Reform can't do that at all and it is difficult seeing how they could ever do it. It is a huge grassroots organisation, backed up by well established central systems and many people willing to put in massive amounts of work for free.

    A last comment - I have been involved in many GE. This was the best one ever. It was great fun and we had huge laughs. It could however be because although I did a huge amount I also (for the first time in decades) had no responsibility. So the fun without the stress.

    Off to another celebration party tonight.
    And for Reform to do that, the have to admit an uncomfortable truth that goes against what seems to be a their self-understanding.

    There was a lot of excitement this year that this would be the year that Reform became the true voice of the Red Wall, and it didn't really happen. Even Rotherham, where the social tensions were real and the Conservatives didn't have a candidate, Reform didn't get that close.

    Look at the places where Reform won. In the main, they're east coast seaside towns that they forgot to close down. Which makes sense as a niche, and whilst it's a pretty small one, it points to next steps.

    If Reform want grow, that's probably the way to go. It's less heroic, sure, much as the Lib Dem niche of "nice places populated by upper middle class types" doesn't look great when written down. But if you want to win FPTP seats, you have to work out where your actual voters are, not the ones you would like to be your voters.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481

    kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    We saw quite a few Reform voters on election day when knocking up. So people who said they would or probably would vote LD who when knocked up confirmed they had voted Reform. They were voting against the Govt so LD was their choice when canvassed, but switched their protest vote to Reform. They were all normal nice everyday people, but then we would not have been knocking up the hard core Reform voters who would have been Reform from the outset.

    The LDs have had decades mastering their way around the FPTP system. Even with all our success in the past at doing so we have never scored a proportional result until now. The targeting was really ruthless and the effort massive. We put out about 13 leaflets/letters here, canvassed nearly the whole constituency and had hundreds of posters up. Reform can't do that at all and it is difficult seeing how they could ever do it. It is a huge grassroots organisation, backed up by well established central systems and many people willing to put in massive amounts of work for free.

    A last comment - I have been involved in many GE. This was the best one ever. It was great fun and we had huge laughs. It could however be because although I did a huge amount I also (for the first time in decades) had no responsibility. So the fun without the stress.

    Off to another celebration party tonight.
    And for Reform to do that, the have to admit an uncomfortable truth that goes against what seems to be a their self-understanding.

    There was a lot of excitement this year that this would be the year that Reform became the true voice of the Red Wall, and it didn't really happen. Even Rotherham, where the social tensions were real and the Conservatives didn't have a candidate, Reform didn't get that close.

    Look at the places where Reform won. In the main, they're east coast seaside towns that they forgot to close down. Which makes sense as a niche, and whilst it's a pretty small one, it points to next steps.

    If Reform want grow, that's probably the way to go. It's less heroic, sure, much as the Lib Dem niche of "nice places populated by upper middle class types" doesn't look great when written down. But if you want to win FPTP seats, you have to work out where your actual voters are, not the ones you would like to be your voters.
    Surely Ashfield shows the direction they need to go - targeting the forgotten seats where things aren't going that well.

    Another prime example would be Redcar where since Mo Mowlam elections have gone - protest vote back to Labour, protest vote back to Labour. 2029 would be prime protest vote timing...
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    edited July 20

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you saw coloured people and all I saw is a set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people was a decent representation of the population of that area..
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    edited July 20
    Nigelb said:
    It's a China Miéville novel and as that article points out there hasn't been one for 10 years...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,476
    edited July 20

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    "I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment,"

    It's not unthinking criticism. It's very well considered criticism.

    And you've got a bit of nerve accusing other posters of unthinking: how much 'thinking' did you do when you repeatedly shilled for Putin over MH17, spewing lies on here however much they contradicted the lies you'd posted the previous day? Russia's lies changed, and so did you posts.

    "... which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters"

    I asked a simple question below, which I don't think you have not answered. Because the video evidence is not quite as clear-cut as you appear to think - perhaps because you've made up your brain cell before you even watched it.

    Again, I repeat Farage's comment: “The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you”.

    Now, as you're defending it, what do you think he means by "politics of the subcontinent" ?

    It's racist dog-whistling, and I'm utterly unsurprised you've fallen for it, comrade.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 659

    Dura_Ace said:

    Making Your Mind Up.

    Bucks Fizz.

    Inspired work.

    Hurrah, somebody spotted my subtle musical reference.
    You could have set out your expectations for the future of the common currency. Your Euro vision.
    I am of the view when we rejoin the EU one of the main reasons is that Brits will want to join the Euro.

    In the past when cash was king people saw the pound in their pocket and didn't want to lose that, now that we are heading to rightly becoming a cashless society then support for the joining the Euro will surge.

    In your banking app whether it shows 2,000 pounds in your account or 2,000 Euros will make no difference.

    It's just a number in your phone now. 90+% people aren't going to give a fuck and the weirdos who do, the types who have their trousers held up with an improvised belt of electrical cable and keep a spreadsheet of mixed ethnicity couples in TV adverts, will just have to lump it.
    Until yesterday when the weirdo with a cable belt had a much easier time than the cashless.

    They may have been able to pay for things but they're not updating that spreadsheet till support come around to fix their laptop in a fortnight. In the meantime who knows how much inappropriate breakfast cereal marketing will slip through the noose
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,426
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you see coloured people and all I see is a certain set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people is probably a decent representation of the population of that area..
    We do need to encourage assimilation of the traditional style of British rioting.

    1) Clash songs
    2) Shaved headed yobs
    3) Punch ups with the TSG
    Etc

    #SaveTheBritishRiot
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,553
    A beautifully written extended piece in the Guardian from novelist Tom Lamont on his experience of being Jewish in Britain. I was nonetheless left with an enormous sigh at the end as the elephant in the room, rising antisemitism and islamism since 7 October, were completely ignored.

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/jul/20/there-are-lots-of-us-who-hover-on-margins-who-are-not-quickly-definable-my-life-as-a-so-called-stealth-jew

    Are we seriously going to go on line this?

    Also Sadiq Khan acknowledging the problems of abuse and threats that candidates faced in the election. No name is given to the ideology involved. Could it have been far right white nationalists?

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/sadiq-khan-met-police-diverted-most-ever-resources-to-tackle-general-election-abuse/ar-BB1qi9LE?ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover&cvid=88c31fdd133548e1f8a331ab4895673d&ei=85&sc=shoreline
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,476
    PutinGuy's idea of someone form the subcontinent... dark skinned... looks a little swarthy... unshaven....

    https://images.hellomagazine.com/horizon/landscape/8a19aff7a35a-aidan-turner-shirtless-t.jpg?tx=c_limit,w_960

    ;)
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    edited July 20
    Catching up on Crowdstrike and this hits home

    https://x.com/_Mark_Atwood/status/1814390528651436155
    Mark Atwood
    @_Mark_Atwood
    Microsoft didnt buy Crowdstrike years ago, despite getting deeply in bed with it, and despite allowing it to bypass all the safies in Windows Update, because they didn't want the liability. THIS liability.

    Alongside

    https://x.com/_Mark_Atwood/status/1814390900510077018
    Mark Atwood
    @_Mark_Atwood
    If you are in a regulated industry, you are required to install something like Crowdstrike on all your machines. If you use Crowdstrike, your auditor checks a single line and moves on. If you use anything else, your auditor opens up an expensive new chapter of his book.

    The latter bit is a killer for banks - I remember a checklist that basically went you need to implement that in Google Cloud because that area is currently over reliant on Azure ignoring the fact the end point was still Azure so we've now got 2 points of failure not one and we've also broken Azure's built in rollovers at the same time..

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,694
    edited July 20
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you saw coloured people and all I saw is a set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people was a decent representation of the population of that area..
    Actually, you were very quick off the mark in identifying peoples' ethnic background - when highlighting the community leaders trying to calm the situation. No colourblind approach there. You simply chose not to mention the background of the rioters those leaders were remonstrating with, because one doesn't. That's a specious approach that helps nobody, and I hold that attitude, when it informs policing and the provision of services, more responsible for the situation than any cultural antecedents.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,369

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you see coloured people and all I see is a certain set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people is probably a decent representation of the population of that area..
    We do need to encourage assimilation of the traditional style of British rioting.

    1) Clash songs
    2) Shaved headed yobs
    3) Punch ups with the TSG
    Etc

    #SaveTheBritishRiot
    They need to take style advice as well. Pristine white trainers, hoodies and tracksuit bottoms are not remotely as menacing as 16 hole DMs, rolled up jeans and bomber jackets. And let’s see properly buzz cut heads rather than the effeminate shaved sides with a big flourish of curls on top.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,260

    kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    We saw quite a few Reform voters on election day when knocking up. So people who said they would or probably would vote LD who when knocked up confirmed they had voted Reform. They were voting against the Govt so LD was their choice when canvassed, but switched their protest vote to Reform. They were all normal nice everyday people, but then we would not have been knocking up the hard core Reform voters who would have been Reform from the outset.

    The LDs have had decades mastering their way around the FPTP system. Even with all our success in the past at doing so we have never scored a proportional result until now. The targeting was really ruthless and the effort massive. We put out about 13 leaflets/letters here, canvassed nearly the whole constituency and had hundreds of posters up. Reform can't do that at all and it is difficult seeing how they could ever do it. It is a huge grassroots organisation, backed up by well established central systems and many people willing to put in massive amounts of work for free.

    A last comment - I have been involved in many GE. This was the best one ever. It was great fun and we had huge laughs. It could however be because although I did a huge amount I also (for the first time in decades) had no responsibility. So the fun without the stress.

    Off to another celebration party tonight.
    And for Reform to do that, the have to admit an uncomfortable truth that goes against what seems to be a their self-understanding.

    There was a lot of excitement this year that this would be the year that Reform became the true voice of the Red Wall, and it didn't really happen. Even Rotherham, where the social tensions were real and the Conservatives didn't have a candidate, Reform didn't get that close.

    Look at the places where Reform won. In the main, they're east coast seaside towns that they forgot to close down. Which makes sense as a niche, and whilst it's a pretty small one, it points to next steps.

    If Reform want grow, that's probably the way to go. It's less heroic, sure, much as the Lib Dem niche of "nice places populated by upper middle class types" doesn't look great when written down. But if you want to win FPTP seats, you have to work out where your actual voters are, not the ones you would like to be your voters.
    I was relieved they didn't win seats in ex coalfield South Yorkshire (where I'm from). I thought they might.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    edited July 20

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you saw coloured people and all I saw is a set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people was a decent representation of the population of that area..
    Actually, you were very quick off the mark in identifying peoples' ethnic background - when highlighting the community leaders trying to calm the situation. No colourblind approach there. You simply chose not to mention the background of the rioters those leaders were remonstrating with, because one doesn't. That's a specious approach that helps nobody, and I hold that attitude, when it informs policing and the provision of services, more responsible for the situation than any cultural antecedents.
    I just picked the first counter point I could think of from a quick search on Google because I didn't want to call you out as the racist you so often are on here.

    So let's repear @JosiasJessop 's question and see if you explain what a riot triggered by the removal of children from Roma family has to do with sub-continental politics...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,476

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you saw coloured people and all I saw is a set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people was a decent representation of the population of that area..
    Actually, you were very quick off the mark in identifying peoples' ethnic background - when highlighting the community leaders trying to calm the situation. No colourblind approach there. You simply chose not to mention the background of the rioters those leaders were remonstrating with, because one doesn't. That's a specious approach that helps nobody, and I hold that attitude, when it informs policing and the provision of services, more responsible for the situation than any cultural antecedents.
    Perhaps that was because the community leaders were named and interviewed, and not just background characters in a video shot at night-time?
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    The Leeds lot did it a week late as well.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,554
    eek said:

    kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    We saw quite a few Reform voters on election day when knocking up. So people who said they would or probably would vote LD who when knocked up confirmed they had voted Reform. They were voting against the Govt so LD was their choice when canvassed, but switched their protest vote to Reform. They were all normal nice everyday people, but then we would not have been knocking up the hard core Reform voters who would have been Reform from the outset.

    The LDs have had decades mastering their way around the FPTP system. Even with all our success in the past at doing so we have never scored a proportional result until now. The targeting was really ruthless and the effort massive. We put out about 13 leaflets/letters here, canvassed nearly the whole constituency and had hundreds of posters up. Reform can't do that at all and it is difficult seeing how they could ever do it. It is a huge grassroots organisation, backed up by well established central systems and many people willing to put in massive amounts of work for free.

    A last comment - I have been involved in many GE. This was the best one ever. It was great fun and we had huge laughs. It could however be because although I did a huge amount I also (for the first time in decades) had no responsibility. So the fun without the stress.

    Off to another celebration party tonight.
    And for Reform to do that, the have to admit an uncomfortable truth that goes against what seems to be a their self-understanding.

    There was a lot of excitement this year that this would be the year that Reform became the true voice of the Red Wall, and it didn't really happen. Even Rotherham, where the social tensions were real and the Conservatives didn't have a candidate, Reform didn't get that close.

    Look at the places where Reform won. In the main, they're east coast seaside towns that they forgot to close down. Which makes sense as a niche, and whilst it's a pretty small one, it points to next steps.

    If Reform want grow, that's probably the way to go. It's less heroic, sure, much as the Lib Dem niche of "nice places populated by upper middle class types" doesn't look great when written down. But if you want to win FPTP seats, you have to work out where your actual voters are, not the ones you would like to be your voters.
    Surely Ashfield shows the direction they need to go - targeting the forgotten seats where things aren't going that well.

    Another prime example would be Redcar where since Mo Mowlam elections have gone - protest vote back to Labour, protest vote back to Labour. 2029 would be prime protest vote timing...
    The catch being that doing that well needs lots of effort on very localised bits of ground. Which has never been the UKIP-to-Reform style.

    Also, if you want to fix those difficult problems, you often have to make counterintuitive changes- the sort of things @RochdalePioneers talks about.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    The Leeds lot did it a week late as well.
    It's Leeds - they are often slow on the uptake.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,426
    boulay said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you see coloured people and all I see is a certain set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people is probably a decent representation of the population of that area..
    We do need to encourage assimilation of the traditional style of British rioting.

    1) Clash songs
    2) Shaved headed yobs
    3) Punch ups with the TSG
    Etc

    #SaveTheBritishRiot
    They need to take style advice as well. Pristine white trainers, hoodies and tracksuit bottoms are not remotely as menacing as 16 hole DMs, rolled up jeans and bomber jackets. And let’s see properly buzz cut heads rather than the effeminate shaved sides with a big flourish of curls on top.
    I have it!

    British Riot Week - a week of events celebrating the traditional British riot.

    Start off with a re-enactment of the head count reduction of Simon of Sudbury.

    Don’t want to make it too London centred though.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,476
    eek said:

    Catching up on Crowdstrike and this hits home

    https://x.com/_Mark_Atwood/status/1814390528651436155
    Mark Atwood
    @_Mark_Atwood
    Microsoft didnt buy Crowdstrike years ago, despite getting deeply in bed with it, and despite allowing it to bypass all the safies in Windows Update, because they didn't want the liability. THIS liability.

    Alongside

    https://x.com/_Mark_Atwood/status/1814390900510077018
    Mark Atwood
    @_Mark_Atwood
    If you are in a regulated industry, you are required to install something like Crowdstrike on all your machines. If you use Crowdstrike, your auditor checks a single line and moves on. If you use anything else, your auditor opens up an expensive new chapter of his book.

    The latter bit is a killer for banks - I remember a checklist that basically went you need to implement that in Google Cloud because that area is currently over reliant on Azure ignoring the fact the end point was still Azure so we've now got 2 points of failure not one and we've also broken Azure's built in rollovers at the same time..

    Back in the 1990s, a guy I know used to work in London for a large bank. Outside his office was an example of *every* computer that bank used in Europe. Part of his job was to test every update from MS and the bank's other suppliers on those computers. AIUI if your computer did not exist in those racks, then you were not allowed to put it on the corporate network. If a computer was deprecated, *all* examples of that computer in the bank was taken out of use.

    Which was good news for the big computer supplies, who would get big orders.

    I think the nature of the Internet has changed this radically. Zero-day hacks are a thing, and response times have to be rapid. It's no longer a case of getting CDs from MS containing the bank's version of the OS (*), testing it, then pushing it out across the internal network. Things have to be much more immediate than that, especially now that many services are outsourced.

    (*) The bank paid for their own version of Windows, with modules at different addresses, which could (not always...) make it harder for hackers.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    edited July 20

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you see coloured people and all I see is a certain set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people is probably a decent representation of the population of that area..
    We do need to encourage assimilation of the traditional style of British rioting.

    1) Clash songs
    2) Shaved headed yobs
    3) Punch ups with the TSG
    Etc

    #SaveTheBritishRiot
    They need to take style advice as well. Pristine white trainers, hoodies and tracksuit bottoms are not remotely as menacing as 16 hole DMs, rolled up jeans and bomber jackets. And let’s see properly buzz cut heads rather than the effeminate shaved sides with a big flourish of curls on top.
    I have it!

    British Riot Week - a week of events celebrating the traditional British riot.

    Start off with a re-enactment of the head count reduction of Simon of Sudbury.

    Don’t want to make it too London centred though.
    The only problem with that is that our riots are amateurish compared to the French...

    On the other hand it would make an interesting Olympic event...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,426

    eek said:

    Catching up on Crowdstrike and this hits home

    https://x.com/_Mark_Atwood/status/1814390528651436155
    Mark Atwood
    @_Mark_Atwood
    Microsoft didnt buy Crowdstrike years ago, despite getting deeply in bed with it, and despite allowing it to bypass all the safies in Windows Update, because they didn't want the liability. THIS liability.

    Alongside

    https://x.com/_Mark_Atwood/status/1814390900510077018
    Mark Atwood
    @_Mark_Atwood
    If you are in a regulated industry, you are required to install something like Crowdstrike on all your machines. If you use Crowdstrike, your auditor checks a single line and moves on. If you use anything else, your auditor opens up an expensive new chapter of his book.

    The latter bit is a killer for banks - I remember a checklist that basically went you need to implement that in Google Cloud because that area is currently over reliant on Azure ignoring the fact the end point was still Azure so we've now got 2 points of failure not one and we've also broken Azure's built in rollovers at the same time..

    Back in the 1990s, a guy I know used to work in London for a large bank. Outside his office was an example of *every* computer that bank used in Europe. Part of his job was to test every update from MS and the bank's other suppliers on those computers. AIUI if your computer did not exist in those racks, then you were not allowed to put it on the corporate network. If a computer was deprecated, *all* examples of that computer in the bank was taken out of use.

    Which was good news for the big computer supplies, who would get big orders.

    I think the nature of the Internet has changed this radically. Zero-day hacks are a thing, and response times have to be rapid. It's no longer a case of getting CDs from MS containing the bank's version of the OS (*), testing it, then pushing it out across the internal network. Things have to be much more immediate than that, especially now that many services are outsourced.

    (*) The bank paid for their own version of Windows, with modules at different addresses, which could (not always...) make it harder for hackers.
    The beauty of the custom cuts of Windoze was that they were always out of date.

    So you got a new computer. Freshly installed OS. So the first time you logged in, 18 months of MS updates…..
  • eek said:

    Catching up on Crowdstrike and this hits home

    https://x.com/_Mark_Atwood/status/1814390528651436155
    Mark Atwood
    @_Mark_Atwood
    Microsoft didnt buy Crowdstrike years ago, despite getting deeply in bed with it, and despite allowing it to bypass all the safies in Windows Update, because they didn't want the liability. THIS liability.

    Alongside

    https://x.com/_Mark_Atwood/status/1814390900510077018
    Mark Atwood
    @_Mark_Atwood
    If you are in a regulated industry, you are required to install something like Crowdstrike on all your machines. If you use Crowdstrike, your auditor checks a single line and moves on. If you use anything else, your auditor opens up an expensive new chapter of his book.

    The latter bit is a killer for banks - I remember a checklist that basically went you need to implement that in Google Cloud because that area is currently over reliant on Azure ignoring the fact the end point was still Azure so we've now got 2 points of failure not one and we've also broken Azure's built in rollovers at the same time..

    Will the auditors not accept Trellix?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,694
    edited July 20
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you saw coloured people and all I saw is a set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people was a decent representation of the population of that area..
    Actually, you were very quick off the mark in identifying peoples' ethnic background - when highlighting the community leaders trying to calm the situation. No colourblind approach there. You simply chose not to mention the background of the rioters those leaders were remonstrating with, because one doesn't. That's a specious approach that helps nobody, and I hold that attitude, when it informs policing and the provision of services, more responsible for the situation than any cultural antecedents.
    I just picked the first counter point I could think of because I didn't want to call you out as the racist you so often are on here.

    I see. Well, I'm glad you got that off your chest ducks.

    I am, perhaps more than anybody else here, a convinced non-racist. If you believe in adaptation over milennia, the notion of racial superiority or inferiority becomes risible. Why would evolution favour the less intelligent, or still less likely, the 'bad'? What it has left us with, is, at the margins, greater abilities in certain fields of endeavour (physical, not intellectual), and where these occur, I think they should be celebrated.

    I think your racism accusation is largely a case of projection. I find it quite likely that in your dark recesses, you're quite convinced that events like Rotherham have their explanation in race and culture, and that therefore those concerned 'need' you to do PR for them, when in-fact what is needed is the opposite.

    What would have prevented the Rotherham scandal would have been equal application of the law, without fear or favour. And what would help kids from ethnic minorities be more successful in schools is the doctrine of the high expectations of Katherine Birbalsingh, not the dumbing down espoused by various grifting 'community activists'.

    Put bluntly, it would appear to be you and those who share similar views who possess racist beliefs. I suggest you don't try and project such nonsense on to me.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,426
    eek said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you see coloured people and all I see is a certain set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people is probably a decent representation of the population of that area..
    We do need to encourage assimilation of the traditional style of British rioting.

    1) Clash songs
    2) Shaved headed yobs
    3) Punch ups with the TSG
    Etc

    #SaveTheBritishRiot
    They need to take style advice as well. Pristine white trainers, hoodies and tracksuit bottoms are not remotely as menacing as 16 hole DMs, rolled up jeans and bomber jackets. And let’s see properly buzz cut heads rather than the effeminate shaved sides with a big flourish of curls on top.
    I have it!

    British Riot Week - a week of events celebrating the traditional British riot.

    Start off with a re-enactment of the head count reduction of Simon of Sudbury.

    Don’t want to make it too London centred though.
    The only problem with that is that our riots are amateurish compared to the French...

    On the other hand it would make an interesting Olympic event...
    Well, obviously British Riot week would include stalls and events from other leading rioting nations.

    South Korea used to some absolutely magnificent riots.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,879
    edited July 20
    eek said:

    kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    We saw quite a few Reform voters on election day when knocking up. So people who said they would or probably would vote LD who when knocked up confirmed they had voted Reform. They were voting against the Govt so LD was their choice when canvassed, but switched their protest vote to Reform. They were all normal nice everyday people, but then we would not have been knocking up the hard core Reform voters who would have been Reform from the outset.

    The LDs have had decades mastering their way around the FPTP system. Even with all our success in the past at doing so we have never scored a proportional result until now. The targeting was really ruthless and the effort massive. We put out about 13 leaflets/letters here, canvassed nearly the whole constituency and had hundreds of posters up. Reform can't do that at all and it is difficult seeing how they could ever do it. It is a huge grassroots organisation, backed up by well established central systems and many people willing to put in massive amounts of work for free.

    A last comment - I have been involved in many GE. This was the best one ever. It was great fun and we had huge laughs. It could however be because although I did a huge amount I also (for the first time in decades) had no responsibility. So the fun without the stress.

    Off to another celebration party tonight.
    And for Reform to do that, the have to admit an uncomfortable truth that goes against what seems to be a their self-understanding.

    There was a lot of excitement this year that this would be the year that Reform became the true voice of the Red Wall, and it didn't really happen. Even Rotherham, where the social tensions were real and the Conservatives didn't have a candidate, Reform didn't get that close.

    Look at the places where Reform won. In the main, they're east coast seaside towns that they forgot to close down. Which makes sense as a niche, and whilst it's a pretty small one, it points to next steps.

    If Reform want grow, that's probably the way to go. It's less heroic, sure, much as the Lib Dem niche of "nice places populated by upper middle class types" doesn't look great when written down. But if you want to win FPTP seats, you have to work out where your actual voters are, not the ones you would like to be your voters.
    Surely Ashfield shows the direction they need to go - targeting the forgotten seats where things aren't going that well.

    Another prime example would be Redcar where since Mo Mowlam elections have gone - protest vote back to Labour, protest vote back to Labour. 2029 would be prime protest vote timing...
    Speaking from Ashfield, I can't call it; there is too much noise.

    Checking the demographics, Ashfield is nearly 10 years younger than eg Clacton but with other things more aligned.

    Plus we have a big former Lib Dem vote which is now with Ashfield Independents who utterly dominate the Council, and Lee Anderson has a personal vote.

    And I have no idea what will happen to the AIs if Zadrozny is found guilty on some or all of the charges. If the LDs are awake, there may be a way back onto the map there; I don't see another Z type figure who could animate a further version of AIs.

    I'd say that by-elections might help give information, but given that there are ~340 brand new MPs I don't think we'll have too many of those.

    If Labour's version of levelling-up, which seems defined to be far more broadly based and to be more rigorously defined, works, that will be a problem for Reform if they are essentially "bottom-fishing".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you saw coloured people and all I saw is a set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people was a decent representation of the population of that area..
    Actually, you were very quick off the mark in identifying peoples' ethnic background - when highlighting the community leaders trying to calm the situation. No colourblind approach there. You simply chose not to mention the background of the rioters those leaders were remonstrating with, because one doesn't. That's a specious approach that helps nobody, and I hold that attitude, when it informs policing and the provision of services, more responsible for the situation than any cultural antecedents.
    Not half so quick as Farage, from across the Atlantic, with his view somewhat obstructed by being halfway up Trump's arse.

    Funny you didn't remark on that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776

    eek said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you see coloured people and all I see is a certain set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people is probably a decent representation of the population of that area..
    We do need to encourage assimilation of the traditional style of British rioting.

    1) Clash songs
    2) Shaved headed yobs
    3) Punch ups with the TSG
    Etc

    #SaveTheBritishRiot
    They need to take style advice as well. Pristine white trainers, hoodies and tracksuit bottoms are not remotely as menacing as 16 hole DMs, rolled up jeans and bomber jackets. And let’s see properly buzz cut heads rather than the effeminate shaved sides with a big flourish of curls on top.
    I have it!

    British Riot Week - a week of events celebrating the traditional British riot.

    Start off with a re-enactment of the head count reduction of Simon of Sudbury.

    Don’t want to make it too London centred though.
    The only problem with that is that our riots are amateurish compared to the French...

    On the other hand it would make an interesting Olympic event...
    Well, obviously British Riot week would include stalls and events from other leading rioting nations.

    South Korea used to some absolutely magnificent riots.
    Along with several military dictatorships, and some quite unpleasant civilian massacres.

    Not sure we want to model ourselves on that aspect of their history.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,369

    eek said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you see coloured people and all I see is a certain set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people is probably a decent representation of the population of that area..
    We do need to encourage assimilation of the traditional style of British rioting.

    1) Clash songs
    2) Shaved headed yobs
    3) Punch ups with the TSG
    Etc

    #SaveTheBritishRiot
    They need to take style advice as well. Pristine white trainers, hoodies and tracksuit bottoms are not remotely as menacing as 16 hole DMs, rolled up jeans and bomber jackets. And let’s see properly buzz cut heads rather than the effeminate shaved sides with a big flourish of curls on top.
    I have it!

    British Riot Week - a week of events celebrating the traditional British riot.

    Start off with a re-enactment of the head count reduction of Simon of Sudbury.

    Don’t want to make it too London centred though.
    The only problem with that is that our riots are amateurish compared to the French...

    On the other hand it would make an interesting Olympic event...
    Well, obviously British Riot week would include stalls and events from other leading rioting nations.

    South Korea used to some absolutely magnificent riots.
    Well we improved in the football by copying the French FA’s Clairefontaine Academy and set up St George’s Park so I think a bit of observing the French, what they throw, what they wear, face covering choices, chants, best bottles for Molotov cocktails and we will be able to face Europe with pride on future May Days.

    We've just got to get away from the obsession with stealing trainers being the goal of rioting and move to a more European desire for general destruction of windows and police vehicles.
  • FossFoss Posts: 899
    boulay said:

    eek said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you see coloured people and all I see is a certain set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people is probably a decent representation of the population of that area..
    We do need to encourage assimilation of the traditional style of British rioting.

    1) Clash songs
    2) Shaved headed yobs
    3) Punch ups with the TSG
    Etc

    #SaveTheBritishRiot
    They need to take style advice as well. Pristine white trainers, hoodies and tracksuit bottoms are not remotely as menacing as 16 hole DMs, rolled up jeans and bomber jackets. And let’s see properly buzz cut heads rather than the effeminate shaved sides with a big flourish of curls on top.
    I have it!

    British Riot Week - a week of events celebrating the traditional British riot.

    Start off with a re-enactment of the head count reduction of Simon of Sudbury.

    Don’t want to make it too London centred though.
    The only problem with that is that our riots are amateurish compared to the French...

    On the other hand it would make an interesting Olympic event...
    Well, obviously British Riot week would include stalls and events from other leading rioting nations.

    South Korea used to some absolutely magnificent riots.
    Well we improved in the football by copying the French FA’s Clairefontaine Academy and set up St George’s Park so I think a bit of observing the French, what they throw, what they wear, face covering choices, chants, best bottles for Molotov cocktails and we will be able to face Europe with pride on future May Days.

    We've just got to get away from the obsession with stealing trainers being the goal of rioting and move to a more European desire for general destruction of windows and police vehicles.
    The French have a level of flamboyance that we seem to lack; when was the last time we saw British police officers squaring up to fully uniformed firemen?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,476
    Off-topic:

    I've just been looking at wiki's list of prisoners with whole life orders (and its predecessors). And it's surprising how there is an increasing number of people being jailed with this sentence. There used to be one every few years; now there are several most years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole_life_orders

    I cannot believe that this is due to Britain somehow becoming more violent, and it cannot fully be down to the abolition of the death sentence.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,694
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you saw coloured people and all I saw is a set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people was a decent representation of the population of that area..
    Actually, you were very quick off the mark in identifying peoples' ethnic background - when highlighting the community leaders trying to calm the situation. No colourblind approach there. You simply chose not to mention the background of the rioters those leaders were remonstrating with, because one doesn't. That's a specious approach that helps nobody, and I hold that attitude, when it informs policing and the provision of services, more responsible for the situation than any cultural antecedents.
    Not half so quick as Farage, from across the Atlantic, with his view somewhat obstructed by being halfway up Trump's arse.

    Funny you didn't remark on that.
    If Nigel Farage is a racist, PB examplars of his greatest aides in being a wonderfully successful one, are Eek and Jessop.

    As for his comments on 'importing the political disputes of the subcontinent' (or whatever the precise sentence was), in Leeds, they may well be shown to be a mis-diagnosis, though to assume they are at this point is risky, in the same way to indulge in mockery of a cravated Farage banging on about dinghys when those first started coming was risky - it's dismissing Farage on immigration, a topic he is massively more knowledgeable about than those who would dismiss him.

    An early sign of the riskiness of such an approach is the totally unrelated emergence of disturbances in London, which it would appear have been caused quite directly by the overspill of disputes in Bangladesh. But disturbances in London are not riots in Leeds. So as yet, Farage's diagnosis in Leeds is unproven.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776
    edited July 20
    Plugging his book, but a nonetheless entertaining thread on Bretton Woods by Ed Conway.

    80 years ago today, newspapers in Europe carried news of the unexpected death of a very important man, in a hotel miles from the nearest city.
    A man who, said some, was helping the Allies win the war.
    But there was a twist to the tale. The man in question wasn't actually dead..

    https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/1814606564843475092
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    edited July 20

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    The 2024 Labour campaign did have an effect. The timid Ming vase strategy caused Labour to shed millions of votes. It was a dire campaign from start to finish, totally lacking in ambition. Labour won because the Conservatives were so dire, yet with a GB wide vote vote share of just 35% Labour very nearly blew it in the space of just 6 weeks.

    It's worth comparing the Labour campaigns of 2017 (not 2019!) with 2024. In both campaigns, the Conservatives messed up badly (social care in 2017, D day etc in 2024.) In both campaigns, Brexit wasn't an issue either (much as the Conservatives tried to make it one.) So the door was open to Labour in both campaigns.

    Yet in 2017, during the campaign Labour's polling increased by 15% (from 26% to 41%) whereas in 2024 Labour's share fell by 10% (from about 45% to 35%).

    The difference was that in 2017, Labour set out ambitious plans, together with a costed programme of how it was going to be paid for that was plausible enough to reassure rather than scare voters off. Now how plausible that funding programme was in reality was another thing of course, but the fact is that plenty of people were prepared to vote for it.
    In 2017 we lost. This year we won.

    Everything else is secondary.
    That's a head in the sand attitude guaranteed to lead to defeat in 2029. You think that Labour can continue to win general elections with just 35% of the vote. I don't and I think lessons need to be learned. This year Starmer got lucky thanks to Reform, and thus an absolutely inept Labour campaign was insufficient to erode enough the 20% advantage which (to his credit) he'd built up and maintained since 2022.

    It's a real question - why did Labour's vote share deteriorate so much from the 45% at the start of the campaign to the actual 35% achieved on polling day, despite the apparent horlicks that Sunak made of the Conservative campaign? About 7% of that decline was in the opinion polls, and a further 3% the difference between the final polls and the actual result, but the latter shouldn't be accepted as inevitable either because in 2017 Labour polled better than the final polls were suggesting in contrast to 2024. I think that the answer to why the polls were wrong in 2024 but not 2017 is simple - in 2017 Labour supporters were motivated positively to vote, whereas in 2024 the positive motivation was much less.
    I agree. Not much to get enthused about other than they weren't Tory though I'm pretty convinced this would have been enough to get him over the line anyway.

    However his complete ignorance and indifference to the plight of the Palestinians particularly towards the end of the campaign didn't help. There was definitely a feeling from Labour voters as the atrocities grew that if there were other ways of getting rid of the Tories without risk then they should be tried.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,953
    edited July 20

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    This is not difficult. The big bits are continents and the little bits are islands. No man is an island intire of itself, every man is part of a continent - John Donne. You are one or the other. Plate tectonics has no bearing on the fact. You think it's about continents because Wegener. Also you are committed to saying Spain and Portugal are part of Africa. Happy with that?
    No man is an island, entire of itself. Except, of course, the Isle of Man.
    And Lord Sandwich
    Even the Isle of Lewis isn't entire of itself (Isle of Harris same).
    But has anyone convinced them?
    On the subject of fake islands, look at the Black Isle - neither an isle, nor black.
    On the other hand, there are lots of River Avons, so good wet they named them twice.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,455
    edited July 20

    eek said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you see coloured people and all I see is a certain set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people is probably a decent representation of the population of that area..
    We do need to encourage assimilation of the traditional style of British rioting.

    1) Clash songs
    2) Shaved headed yobs
    3) Punch ups with the TSG
    Etc

    #SaveTheBritishRiot
    They need to take style advice as well. Pristine white trainers, hoodies and tracksuit bottoms are not remotely as menacing as 16 hole DMs, rolled up jeans and bomber jackets. And let’s see properly buzz cut heads rather than the effeminate shaved sides with a big flourish of curls on top.
    I have it!

    British Riot Week - a week of events celebrating the traditional British riot.

    Start off with a re-enactment of the head count reduction of Simon of Sudbury.

    Don’t want to make it too London centred though.
    The only problem with that is that our riots are amateurish compared to the French...

    On the other hand it would make an interesting Olympic event...
    Well, obviously British Riot week would include stalls and events from other leading rioting nations.

    South Korea used to some absolutely magnificent riots.
    This discussion does seem to have a rather narrow meaning of "British." Quite ironic when we have the Orange marching season upon us.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,455
    edited July 20
    sarissa said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    This is not difficult. The big bits are continents and the little bits are islands. No man is an island intire of itself, every man is part of a continent - John Donne. You are one or the other. Plate tectonics has no bearing on the fact. You think it's about continents because Wegener. Also you are committed to saying Spain and Portugal are part of Africa. Happy with that?
    No man is an island, entire of itself. Except, of course, the Isle of Man.
    And Lord Sandwich
    Even the Isle of Lewis isn't entire of itself (Isle of Harris same).
    But has anyone convinced them?
    On the subject of fake islands, look at the Black Isle - neither an isle, nor black.
    On the other hand, there are lots of River Avons, so good wet they named them twice.
    TBF the Black Isle does have a dark hogback to it (from the moor and forestry).

    I also like the Rivers Esk/Usk also rather redunhdantly stating that there is water in the aforesaid watercourse.

    Edit: Except, I suppose, that one needs a proper British word to explain what this French import 'river' actually means. Same with Afon/Abhainn.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,426

    Off-topic:

    I've just been looking at wiki's list of prisoners with whole life orders (and its predecessors). And it's surprising how there is an increasing number of people being jailed with this sentence. There used to be one every few years; now there are several most years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole_life_orders

    I cannot believe that this is due to Britain somehow becoming more violent, and it cannot fully be down to the abolition of the death sentence.

    Most of those are for multiple murder. Including some for doing a murder, serving a prison sentence. Then doing another murder.

    That’s the point at which most would say “FFS, just keep him locked up”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776
    This raises the somewhat alarming possibility that we’re already in a feedback loop, with higher global temperatures reducing the ability of global systems (ocean; soils; vegetation, etc) to absorb atmospheric CO2.

    Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447
    In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 +/- 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6 +/- 0.5%. This implies an unprecedented weakening of land and ocean sinks, and raises the question of where and why this reduction happened. Here we show a global net land CO2 sink of 0.44 +/- 0.21 GtC yr-1, the weakest since 2003. We used dynamic global vegetation models, satellites fire emissions, an atmospheric inversion based on OCO-2 measurements, and emulators of ocean biogeochemical and data driven models to deliver a fast-track carbon budget in 2023. Those models ensured consistency with previous carbon budgets. Regional flux anomalies from 2015-2022 are consistent between top-down and bottom-up approaches, with the largest abnormal carbon loss in the Amazon during the drought in the second half of 2023 (0.31 +/- 0.19 GtC yr-1), extreme fire emissions of 0.58 +/- 0.10 GtC yr-1 in Canada and a loss in South-East Asia (0.13 +/- 0.12 GtC yr-1). Since 2015, land CO2 uptake north of 20 degree N declined by half to 1.13 +/- 0.24 GtC yr-1 in 2023. Meanwhile, the tropics recovered from the 2015-16 El Nino carbon loss, gained carbon during the La Nina years (2020-2023), then switched to a carbon loss during the 2023 El Nino (0.56 +/- 0.23 GtC yr-1). The ocean sink was stronger than normal in the equatorial eastern Pacific due to reduced upwelling from La Nina's retreat in early 2023 and the development of El Nino later. Land regions exposed to extreme heat in 2023 contributed a gross carbon loss of 1.73 GtC yr-1, indicating that record warming in 2023 had a strong negative impact on the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change...

    If we continue to see data like this over the next year or so, there will be discussions about emergency measures.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776
    Rain in Hungary.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,869
    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    The 2024 Labour campaign did have an effect. The timid Ming vase strategy caused Labour to shed millions of votes. It was a dire campaign from start to finish, totally lacking in ambition. Labour won because the Conservatives were so dire, yet with a GB wide vote vote share of just 35% Labour very nearly blew it in the space of just 6 weeks.

    It's worth comparing the Labour campaigns of 2017 (not 2019!) with 2024. In both campaigns, the Conservatives messed up badly (social care in 2017, D day etc in 2024.) In both campaigns, Brexit wasn't an issue either (much as the Conservatives tried to make it one.) So the door was open to Labour in both campaigns.

    Yet in 2017, during the campaign Labour's polling increased by 15% (from 26% to 41%) whereas in 2024 Labour's share fell by 10% (from about 45% to 35%).

    The difference was that in 2017, Labour set out ambitious plans, together with a costed programme of how it was going to be paid for that was plausible enough to reassure rather than scare voters off. Now how plausible that funding programme was in reality was another thing of course, but the fact is that plenty of people were prepared to vote for it.
    In 2017 we lost. This year we won.

    Everything else is secondary.
    That's a head in the sand attitude guaranteed to lead to defeat in 2029. You think that Labour can continue to win general elections with just 35% of the vote. I don't and I think lessons need to be learned. This year Starmer got lucky thanks to Reform, and thus an absolutely inept Labour campaign was insufficient to erode enough the 20% advantage which (to his credit) he'd built up and maintained since 2022.

    It's a real question - why did Labour's vote share deteriorate so much from the 45% at the start of the campaign to the actual 35% achieved on polling day, despite the apparent horlicks that Sunak made of the Conservative campaign? About 7% of that decline was in the opinion polls, and a further 3% the difference between the final polls and the actual result, but the latter shouldn't be accepted as inevitable either because in 2017 Labour polled better than the final polls were suggesting in contrast to 2024. I think that the answer to why the polls were wrong in 2024 but not 2017 is simple - in 2017 Labour supporters were motivated positively to vote, whereas in 2024 the positive motivation was much less.
    I agree. Not much to get enthused about other than they weren't Tory though I'm pretty convinced this would have been enough to get him over the line anyway.

    However his complete ignorance and indifference to the plight of the Palestinians particularly towards the end of the campaign didn't help. There was definitely a feeling from Labour voters as the atrocities grew that if there were other ways of getting rid of the Tories without risk then they should be tried.
    Yeah, we got it all wrong. Could have held on to a couple of seats we lost to "independents", and maybe gained Keighley, while at the same time failing to gain 100 of the seats we won from the Tories. How could Labour have been so stupid?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776
    Perez bins it.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,965

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    The 2024 Labour campaign did have an effect. The timid Ming vase strategy caused Labour to shed millions of votes. It was a dire campaign from start to finish, totally lacking in ambition. Labour won because the Conservatives were so dire, yet with a GB wide vote vote share of just 35% Labour very nearly blew it in the space of just 6 weeks.

    It's worth comparing the Labour campaigns of 2017 (not 2019!) with 2024. In both campaigns, the Conservatives messed up badly (social care in 2017, D day etc in 2024.) In both campaigns, Brexit wasn't an issue either (much as the Conservatives tried to make it one.) So the door was open to Labour in both campaigns.

    Yet in 2017, during the campaign Labour's polling increased by 15% (from 26% to 41%) whereas in 2024 Labour's share fell by 10% (from about 45% to 35%).

    The difference was that in 2017, Labour set out ambitious plans, together with a costed programme of how it was going to be paid for that was plausible enough to reassure rather than scare voters off. Now how plausible that funding programme was in reality was another thing of course, but the fact is that plenty of people were prepared to vote for it.
    In 2017 we lost. This year we won.

    Everything else is secondary.
    That's a head in the sand attitude guaranteed to lead to defeat in 2029. You think that Labour can continue to win general elections with just 35% of the vote. I don't and I think lessons need to be learned. This year Starmer got lucky thanks to Reform, and thus an absolutely inept Labour campaign was insufficient to erode enough the 20% advantage which (to his credit) he'd built up and maintained since 2022.

    It's a real question - why did Labour's vote share deteriorate so much from the 45% at the start of the campaign to the actual 35% achieved on polling day, despite the apparent horlicks that Sunak made of the Conservative campaign? About 7% of that decline was in the opinion polls, and a further 3% the difference between the final polls and the actual result, but the latter shouldn't be accepted as inevitable either because in 2017 Labour polled better than the final polls were suggesting in contrast to 2024. I think that the answer to why the polls were wrong in 2024 but not 2017 is simple - in 2017 Labour supporters were motivated positively to vote, whereas in 2024 the positive motivation was much less.
    I disagree with this assessment. Polling errors aren't the responsibility of campaigns. Losing voting share might be. Apart from Starmer's unforced error on Gaza, which definitely did cause Labour to shed votes, he didn't put a foot wrong during the campaign. This resulted in a utterly convincing mandate for the next five years, which is the only purpose of the election for the winning party.

    Labour might lose the next election. It will only do so if something big changes. And something big changes, the 2024 election won't provide lessons to learn in the new situation.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,694
    Nigelb said:

    This raises the somewhat alarming possibility that we’re already in a feedback loop, with higher global temperatures reducing the ability of global systems (ocean; soils; vegetation, etc) to absorb atmospheric CO2.

    Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447
    In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 +/- 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6 +/- 0.5%. This implies an unprecedented weakening of land and ocean sinks, and raises the question of where and why this reduction happened. Here we show a global net land CO2 sink of 0.44 +/- 0.21 GtC yr-1, the weakest since 2003. We used dynamic global vegetation models, satellites fire emissions, an atmospheric inversion based on OCO-2 measurements, and emulators of ocean biogeochemical and data driven models to deliver a fast-track carbon budget in 2023. Those models ensured consistency with previous carbon budgets. Regional flux anomalies from 2015-2022 are consistent between top-down and bottom-up approaches, with the largest abnormal carbon loss in the Amazon during the drought in the second half of 2023 (0.31 +/- 0.19 GtC yr-1), extreme fire emissions of 0.58 +/- 0.10 GtC yr-1 in Canada and a loss in South-East Asia (0.13 +/- 0.12 GtC yr-1). Since 2015, land CO2 uptake north of 20 degree N declined by half to 1.13 +/- 0.24 GtC yr-1 in 2023. Meanwhile, the tropics recovered from the 2015-16 El Nino carbon loss, gained carbon during the La Nina years (2020-2023), then switched to a carbon loss during the 2023 El Nino (0.56 +/- 0.23 GtC yr-1). The ocean sink was stronger than normal in the equatorial eastern Pacific due to reduced upwelling from La Nina's retreat in early 2023 and the development of El Nino later. Land regions exposed to extreme heat in 2023 contributed a gross carbon loss of 1.73 GtC yr-1, indicating that record warming in 2023 had a strong negative impact on the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change...

    If we continue to see data like this over the next year or so, there will be discussions about emergency measures.

    No emergency measures will be taken, because extreme warming is grist to the Net Zero mill. Can't have measures taken that might result in global cooling. The PR implications would be unthinkable.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    edited July 20

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    The 2024 Labour campaign did have an effect. The timid Ming vase strategy caused Labour to shed millions of votes. It was a dire campaign from start to finish, totally lacking in ambition. Labour won because the Conservatives were so dire, yet with a GB wide vote vote share of just 35% Labour very nearly blew it in the space of just 6 weeks.

    It's worth comparing the Labour campaigns of 2017 (not 2019!) with 2024. In both campaigns, the Conservatives messed up badly (social care in 2017, D day etc in 2024.) In both campaigns, Brexit wasn't an issue either (much as the Conservatives tried to make it one.) So the door was open to Labour in both campaigns.

    Yet in 2017, during the campaign Labour's polling increased by 15% (from 26% to 41%) whereas in 2024 Labour's share fell by 10% (from about 45% to 35%).

    The difference was that in 2017, Labour set out ambitious plans, together with a costed programme of how it was going to be paid for that was plausible enough to reassure rather than scare voters off. Now how plausible that funding programme was in reality was another thing of course, but the fact is that plenty of people were prepared to vote for it.
    In 2017 we lost. This year we won.

    Everything else is secondary.
    That's a head in the sand attitude guaranteed to lead to defeat in 2029. You think that Labour can continue to win general elections with just 35% of the vote. I don't and I think lessons need to be learned. This year Starmer got lucky thanks to Reform, and thus an absolutely inept Labour campaign was insufficient to erode enough the 20% advantage which (to his credit) he'd built up and maintained since 2022.

    It's a real question - why did Labour's vote share deteriorate so much from the 45% at the start of the campaign to the actual 35% achieved on polling day, despite the apparent horlicks that Sunak made of the Conservative campaign? About 7% of that decline was in the opinion polls, and a further 3% the difference between the final polls and the actual result, but the latter shouldn't be accepted as inevitable either because in 2017 Labour polled better than the final polls were suggesting in contrast to 2024. I think that the answer to why the polls were wrong in 2024 but not 2017 is simple - in 2017 Labour supporters were motivated positively to vote, whereas in 2024 the positive motivation was much less.
    I agree. Not much to get enthused about other than they weren't Tory though I'm pretty convinced this would have been enough to get him over the line anyway.

    However his complete ignorance and indifference to the plight of the Palestinians particularly towards the end of the campaign didn't help. There was definitely a feeling from Labour voters as the atrocities grew that if there were other ways of getting rid of the Tories without risk then they should be tried.
    Yeah, we got it all wrong. Could have held on to a couple of seats we lost to "independents", and maybe gained Keighley, while at the same time failing to gain 100 of the seats we won from the Tories. How could Labour have been so stupid?
    I was answering the question 'why did Labour only get 34% of the vote" The simple answer was there was a bigger share out among non Tory Parties and the polls showed would be Labour voters they could do a small protest without consequences. Of course it didn't do them any damage but people seem puzzled why they didn't do better than 34%
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,965
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    The 2024 Labour campaign did have an effect. The timid Ming vase strategy caused Labour to shed millions of votes. It was a dire campaign from start to finish, totally lacking in ambition. Labour won because the Conservatives were so dire, yet with a GB wide vote vote share of just 35% Labour very nearly blew it in the space of just 6 weeks.

    It's worth comparing the Labour campaigns of 2017 (not 2019!) with 2024. In both campaigns, the Conservatives messed up badly (social care in 2017, D day etc in 2024.) In both campaigns, Brexit wasn't an issue either (much as the Conservatives tried to make it one.) So the door was open to Labour in both campaigns.

    Yet in 2017, during the campaign Labour's polling increased by 15% (from 26% to 41%) whereas in 2024 Labour's share fell by 10% (from about 45% to 35%).

    The difference was that in 2017, Labour set out ambitious plans, together with a costed programme of how it was going to be paid for that was plausible enough to reassure rather than scare voters off. Now how plausible that funding programme was in reality was another thing of course, but the fact is that plenty of people were prepared to vote for it.
    In 2017 we lost. This year we won.

    Everything else is secondary.
    That's a head in the sand attitude guaranteed to lead to defeat in 2029. You think that Labour can continue to win general elections with just 35% of the vote. I don't and I think lessons need to be learned. This year Starmer got lucky thanks to Reform, and thus an absolutely inept Labour campaign was insufficient to erode enough the 20% advantage which (to his credit) he'd built up and maintained since 2022.

    It's a real question - why did Labour's vote share deteriorate so much from the 45% at the start of the campaign to the actual 35% achieved on polling day, despite the apparent horlicks that Sunak made of the Conservative campaign? About 7% of that decline was in the opinion polls, and a further 3% the difference between the final polls and the actual result, but the latter shouldn't be accepted as inevitable either because in 2017 Labour polled better than the final polls were suggesting in contrast to 2024. I think that the answer to why the polls were wrong in 2024 but not 2017 is simple - in 2017 Labour supporters were motivated positively to vote, whereas in 2024 the positive motivation was much less.
    I disagree with this assessment. Polling errors aren't the responsibility of campaigns. Losing voting share might be. Apart from Starmer's unforced error on Gaza, which definitely did cause Labour to shed votes, he didn't put a foot wrong during the campaign. This resulted in a utterly convincing mandate for the next five years, which is the only purpose of the election for the winning party.

    Labour might lose the next election. It will only do so if something big changes. And something big changes, the 2024 election won't provide lessons to learn in the new situation.

    To put this more simply, how Starmer governs might lose Labour the next election. How he ran the previous campaign won't.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,694

    eek said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you see coloured people and all I see is a certain set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people is probably a decent representation of the population of that area..
    We do need to encourage assimilation of the traditional style of British rioting.

    1) Clash songs
    2) Shaved headed yobs
    3) Punch ups with the TSG
    Etc

    #SaveTheBritishRiot
    They need to take style advice as well. Pristine white trainers, hoodies and tracksuit bottoms are not remotely as menacing as 16 hole DMs, rolled up jeans and bomber jackets. And let’s see properly buzz cut heads rather than the effeminate shaved sides with a big flourish of curls on top.
    I have it!

    British Riot Week - a week of events celebrating the traditional British riot.

    Start off with a re-enactment of the head count reduction of Simon of Sudbury.

    Don’t want to make it too London centred though.
    The only problem with that is that our riots are amateurish compared to the French...

    On the other hand it would make an interesting Olympic event...
    Well, obviously British Riot week would include stalls and events from other leading rioting nations.

    South Korea used to some absolutely magnificent riots.
    Will Crystal Palace be rebuilt for it? It would seem to have the most rioting potential.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,456
    edited July 20

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    Of course.

    And in social services, you're damned if you do, and damned if you don't. (How were the signs missed???)
    Far less consequence (rarely any) if you confiscate the kids and it turns out you did so wrongly than if you don't do anything wrongly in which case a media and state agency circus follows.

    Thats how bureaucracies and their precautionary principle works. Better to send them to a camp in Siberia for 20 years than risk them being dangerous traitors now that the KGB has found that there is a risk that they might be traitors after tapping their phone.



    How many kids are taken into protection each week in the UK?

    What processes are there?

    Is a judge involved?

    What appeal opportunities are there for parents?

    I ask all these questions, because "a story" is usually a dangerously limited set of information to work off.
    106 kids per day, 38,792 per year. So 742 per week.

    https://homeforgood.org.uk/statistics

    Yes of course there are processes, but unless you are very wealthy and can afford decent legal representation the processes are hopelessly stacked against you, not least as it is a civil not criminal law process so balance of probability with state agencies word carrying a presumption of correctness unless otherwise proven.

    Hold on, that's 106 kids total going into care being looked after, that's not 106 kids being taken away from parents.

    There are many reasons kids enter the care system. Orphans with nobody to look after them. Parents who abandon their kids. Parents who give their kids up as they can't/don't want to look after them. Parents who are temporarily hospitalised or otherwise too ill to look after children with no other support system, so care is temporarily needed until the parent recovers. And yes, children taken into care against their parents will as well.

    You can't count the former as the latter.

    EDIT: That's looked after children data not care data, so I believe homeless families who are given temporary accommodation (with the children still with their parents in the accommodation) are counted in that data too.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,879

    Off-topic:

    I've just been looking at wiki's list of prisoners with whole life orders (and its predecessors). And it's surprising how there is an increasing number of people being jailed with this sentence. There used to be one every few years; now there are several most years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole_life_orders

    I cannot believe that this is due to Britain somehow becoming more violent, and it cannot fully be down to the abolition of the death sentence.

    I think the numbers are low enough not to expect regularity, and the Wiki article notes that the earlier lists are incomplete.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776
    Perez bins it.

    Nigelb said:

    This raises the somewhat alarming possibility that we’re already in a feedback loop, with higher global temperatures reducing the ability of global systems (ocean; soils; vegetation, etc) to absorb atmospheric CO2.

    Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447
    In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 +/- 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6 +/- 0.5%. This implies an unprecedented weakening of land and ocean sinks, and raises the question of where and why this reduction happened. Here we show a global net land CO2 sink of 0.44 +/- 0.21 GtC yr-1, the weakest since 2003. We used dynamic global vegetation models, satellites fire emissions, an atmospheric inversion based on OCO-2 measurements, and emulators of ocean biogeochemical and data driven models to deliver a fast-track carbon budget in 2023. Those models ensured consistency with previous carbon budgets. Regional flux anomalies from 2015-2022 are consistent between top-down and bottom-up approaches, with the largest abnormal carbon loss in the Amazon during the drought in the second half of 2023 (0.31 +/- 0.19 GtC yr-1), extreme fire emissions of 0.58 +/- 0.10 GtC yr-1 in Canada and a loss in South-East Asia (0.13 +/- 0.12 GtC yr-1). Since 2015, land CO2 uptake north of 20 degree N declined by half to 1.13 +/- 0.24 GtC yr-1 in 2023. Meanwhile, the tropics recovered from the 2015-16 El Nino carbon loss, gained carbon during the La Nina years (2020-2023), then switched to a carbon loss during the 2023 El Nino (0.56 +/- 0.23 GtC yr-1). The ocean sink was stronger than normal in the equatorial eastern Pacific due to reduced upwelling from La Nina's retreat in early 2023 and the development of El Nino later. Land regions exposed to extreme heat in 2023 contributed a gross carbon loss of 1.73 GtC yr-1, indicating that record warming in 2023 had a strong negative impact on the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change...

    If we continue to see data like this over the next year or so, there will be discussions about emergency measures.

    No emergency measures will be taken, because extreme warming is grist to the Net Zero mill. Can't have measures taken that might result in global cooling. The PR implications would be unthinkable.
    Silly boy.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,860
    Speaking of null pointers: There are a couple of First Tech offices near me -- and I sometimes see a car parked in front of one of them, with this vanity license plate: NILPTR.
    https://www.firsttechfed.com/

    (I'm a fan of such plates, if they're clever, or sweet, as they often are. Examples: KATSJIM, GIFT4DI, 4NQT, and HAUDI2U (on an Audi).)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,879
    Carnyx said:



    eek said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you see coloured people and all I see is a certain set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people is probably a decent representation of the population of that area..
    We do need to encourage assimilation of the traditional style of British rioting.

    1) Clash songs
    2) Shaved headed yobs
    3) Punch ups with the TSG
    Etc

    #SaveTheBritishRiot
    They need to take style advice as well. Pristine white trainers, hoodies and tracksuit bottoms are not remotely as menacing as 16 hole DMs, rolled up jeans and bomber jackets. And let’s see properly buzz cut heads rather than the effeminate shaved sides with a big flourish of curls on top.
    I have it!

    British Riot Week - a week of events celebrating the traditional British riot.

    Start off with a re-enactment of the head count reduction of Simon of Sudbury.

    Don’t want to make it too London centred though.
    The only problem with that is that our riots are amateurish compared to the French...

    On the other hand it would make an interesting Olympic event...
    Well, obviously British Riot week would include stalls and events from other leading rioting nations.

    South Korea used to some absolutely magnificent riots.
    This discussion does seem to have a rather narrow meaning of "British." Quite ironic when we have the Orange marching season upon us.
    On my checking of Ashfield vs Clacton demographics, one interesting in both is a HUGE swing in "identity" from "English only" to "British only".
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,476

    Speaking of null pointers: There are a couple of First Tech offices near me -- and I sometimes see a car parked in front of one of them, with this vanity license plate: NILPTR.
    https://www.firsttechfed.com/

    (I'm a fan of such plates, if they're clever, or sweet, as they often are. Examples: KATSJIM, GIFT4DI, 4NQT, and HAUDI2U (on an Audi).)

    There's a car a few streets away from which is something like HLO WLD - "Hello World"

    I've no idea whose it is, but it must belong to a programmer...
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,699
    edited July 20
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    The 2024 Labour campaign did have an effect. The timid Ming vase strategy caused Labour to shed millions of votes. It was a dire campaign from start to finish, totally lacking in ambition. Labour won because the Conservatives were so dire, yet with a GB wide vote vote share of just 35% Labour very nearly blew it in the space of just 6 weeks.

    It's worth comparing the Labour campaigns of 2017 (not 2019!) with 2024. In both campaigns, the Conservatives messed up badly (social care in 2017, D day etc in 2024.) In both campaigns, Brexit wasn't an issue either (much as the Conservatives tried to make it one.) So the door was open to Labour in both campaigns.

    Yet in 2017, during the campaign Labour's polling increased by 15% (from 26% to 41%) whereas in 2024 Labour's share fell by 10% (from about 45% to 35%).

    The difference was that in 2017, Labour set out ambitious plans, together with a costed programme of how it was going to be paid for that was plausible enough to reassure rather than scare voters off. Now how plausible that funding programme was in reality was another thing of course, but the fact is that plenty of people were prepared to vote for it.
    In 2017 we lost. This year we won.

    Everything else is secondary.
    That's a head in the sand attitude guaranteed to lead to defeat in 2029. You think that Labour can continue to win general elections with just 35% of the vote. I don't and I think lessons need to be learned. This year Starmer got lucky thanks to Reform, and thus an absolutely inept Labour campaign was insufficient to erode enough the 20% advantage which (to his credit) he'd built up and maintained since 2022.

    It's a real question - why did Labour's vote share deteriorate so much from the 45% at the start of the campaign to the actual 35% achieved on polling day, despite the apparent horlicks that Sunak made of the Conservative campaign? About 7% of that decline was in the opinion polls, and a further 3% the difference between the final polls and the actual result, but the latter shouldn't be accepted as inevitable either because in 2017 Labour polled better than the final polls were suggesting in contrast to 2024. I think that the answer to why the polls were wrong in 2024 but not 2017 is simple - in 2017 Labour supporters were motivated positively to vote, whereas in 2024 the positive motivation was much less.
    I disagree with this assessment. Polling errors aren't the responsibility of campaigns. Losing voting share might be. Apart from Starmer's unforced error on Gaza, which definitely did cause Labour to shed votes, he didn't put a foot wrong during the campaign. This resulted in a utterly convincing mandate for the next five years, which is the only purpose of the election for the winning party.

    Labour might lose the next election. It will only do so if something big changes. And something big changes, the 2024 election won't provide lessons to learn in the new situation.

    To put this more simply, how Starmer governs might lose Labour the next election. How he ran the previous campaign won't.
    That's true to an extent, but his landslide is (paradoxically) paper-thin. The number of times ministers have already used the word "mandate" is concerning - he has no mandate for pretty much anything except "be less incompetent than the Tories were".

    If he starts using his majority to force through unpopular policies not mentioned in the campaign he risks running into political trouble very quickly. He could have had a much stronger manifesto and got a majority of, say, 70 and then he'd be in a much stronger political position now.

    The concern is that if Labour implode before the Tories sort themselves out, Farage is the only one who benefits.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776
    Drying track, moments left in Q1.
    Fun.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776
    edited July 20
    Nigelb said:

    Drying track, moments left in Q1.
    Fun.

    Russell out.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,869
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    The 2024 Labour campaign did have an effect. The timid Ming vase strategy caused Labour to shed millions of votes. It was a dire campaign from start to finish, totally lacking in ambition. Labour won because the Conservatives were so dire, yet with a GB wide vote vote share of just 35% Labour very nearly blew it in the space of just 6 weeks.

    It's worth comparing the Labour campaigns of 2017 (not 2019!) with 2024. In both campaigns, the Conservatives messed up badly (social care in 2017, D day etc in 2024.) In both campaigns, Brexit wasn't an issue either (much as the Conservatives tried to make it one.) So the door was open to Labour in both campaigns.

    Yet in 2017, during the campaign Labour's polling increased by 15% (from 26% to 41%) whereas in 2024 Labour's share fell by 10% (from about 45% to 35%).

    The difference was that in 2017, Labour set out ambitious plans, together with a costed programme of how it was going to be paid for that was plausible enough to reassure rather than scare voters off. Now how plausible that funding programme was in reality was another thing of course, but the fact is that plenty of people were prepared to vote for it.
    In 2017 we lost. This year we won.

    Everything else is secondary.
    That's a head in the sand attitude guaranteed to lead to defeat in 2029. You think that Labour can continue to win general elections with just 35% of the vote. I don't and I think lessons need to be learned. This year Starmer got lucky thanks to Reform, and thus an absolutely inept Labour campaign was insufficient to erode enough the 20% advantage which (to his credit) he'd built up and maintained since 2022.

    It's a real question - why did Labour's vote share deteriorate so much from the 45% at the start of the campaign to the actual 35% achieved on polling day, despite the apparent horlicks that Sunak made of the Conservative campaign? About 7% of that decline was in the opinion polls, and a further 3% the difference between the final polls and the actual result, but the latter shouldn't be accepted as inevitable either because in 2017 Labour polled better than the final polls were suggesting in contrast to 2024. I think that the answer to why the polls were wrong in 2024 but not 2017 is simple - in 2017 Labour supporters were motivated positively to vote, whereas in 2024 the positive motivation was much less.
    I agree. Not much to get enthused about other than they weren't Tory though I'm pretty convinced this would have been enough to get him over the line anyway.

    However his complete ignorance and indifference to the plight of the Palestinians particularly towards the end of the campaign didn't help. There was definitely a feeling from Labour voters as the atrocities grew that if there were other ways of getting rid of the Tories without risk then they should be tried.
    Yeah, we got it all wrong. Could have held on to a couple of seats we lost to "independents", and maybe gained Keighley, while at the same time failing to gain 100 of the seats we won from the Tories. How could Labour have been so stupid?
    I was answering the question 'why did Labour only get 34% of the vote" The simple answer was there was a bigger share out among non Tory Parties and the polls showed would be Labour voters they could do a small protest without consequences. Of course it didn't do them any damage but people seem puzzled why they didn't do better than 34%
    And the Tories actively encouraged voters to vote with their hearts rather than their heads by conceding defeat ahead of the election. This gave a nice boost to the Green vote share which would otherwise have seen a greater tactical squeeze.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776
    Is Vanilla playing up again ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,092
    Carnyx said:



    eek said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you see coloured people and all I see is a certain set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people is probably a decent representation of the population of that area..
    We do need to encourage assimilation of the traditional style of British rioting.

    1) Clash songs
    2) Shaved headed yobs
    3) Punch ups with the TSG
    Etc

    #SaveTheBritishRiot
    They need to take style advice as well. Pristine white trainers, hoodies and tracksuit bottoms are not remotely as menacing as 16 hole DMs, rolled up jeans and bomber jackets. And let’s see properly buzz cut heads rather than the effeminate shaved sides with a big flourish of curls on top.
    I have it!

    British Riot Week - a week of events celebrating the traditional British riot.

    Start off with a re-enactment of the head count reduction of Simon of Sudbury.

    Don’t want to make it too London centred though.
    The only problem with that is that our riots are amateurish compared to the French...

    On the other hand it would make an interesting Olympic event...
    Well, obviously British Riot week would include stalls and events from other leading rioting nations.

    South Korea used to some absolutely magnificent riots.
    This discussion does seem to have a rather narrow meaning of "British." Quite ironic when we have the Orange marching season upon us.
    [Crocodile Dundee voice]
    That's not a riot!

    THAT's a riot!:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl4ymjrx10xo
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    edited July 20

    Off-topic:

    I've just been looking at wiki's list of prisoners with whole life orders (and its predecessors). And it's surprising how there is an increasing number of people being jailed with this sentence. There used to be one every few years; now there are several most years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole_life_orders

    I cannot believe that this is due to Britain somehow becoming more violent, and it cannot fully be down to the abolition of the death sentence.

    It seems to me that most sentences are ridiculously long. The first two cases mentioned in your wiki clip are Rose West and someone Copeland.

    If the purpose of the sentence is to keep dangerous people away from the public does it really make sense to keep Rose West in prison for her natural life? She's an old woman already?

    As for Copeland he was sentenced to a minimum of 30 years and that was increased on appeal to 50 years! If it's for punishment I doubt he cares less whether it's 30 years or 50 years.

    Both will feel like infinity. So the punishment value hasn't increased. If it for rehabilitation then that's plainly silly.

    It's time sentences were looked at and whether rehabilitation is part of it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,229

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    Of course.

    And in social services, you're damned if you do, and damned if you don't. (How were the signs missed???)
    Far less consequence (rarely any) if you confiscate the kids and it turns out you did so wrongly than if you don't do anything wrongly in which case a media and state agency circus follows.

    Thats how bureaucracies and their precautionary principle works. Better to send them to a camp in Siberia for 20 years than risk them being dangerous traitors now that the KGB has found that there is a risk that they might be traitors after tapping their phone.



    How many kids are taken into protection each week in the UK?

    What processes are there?

    Is a judge involved?

    What appeal opportunities are there for parents?

    I ask all these questions, because "a story" is usually a dangerously limited set of information to work off.
    106 kids per day, 38,792 per year. So 742 per week.

    https://homeforgood.org.uk/statistics

    Yes of course there are processes, but unless you are very wealthy and can afford decent legal representation the processes are hopelessly stacked against you, not least as it is a civil not criminal law process so balance of probability with state agencies word carrying a presumption of correctness unless otherwise proven.

    Hold on, that's 106 kids total going into care being looked after, that's not 106 kids being taken away from parents.

    There are many reasons kids enter the care system. Orphans with nobody to look after them. Parents who abandon their kids. Parents who give their kids up as they can't/don't want to look after them. Parents who are temporarily hospitalised or otherwise too ill to look after children with no other support system, so care is temporarily needed until the parent recovers. And yes, children taken into care against their parents will as well.

    You can't count the former as the latter.

    EDIT: That's looked after children data not care data, so I believe homeless families who are given temporary accommodation (with the children still with their parents in the accommodation) are counted in that data too.
    Woah: it's almost like it's a complicated subject.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,965
    edited July 20
    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    The 2024 Labour campaign did have an effect. The timid Ming vase strategy caused Labour to shed millions of votes. It was a dire campaign from start to finish, totally lacking in ambition. Labour won because the Conservatives were so dire, yet with a GB wide vote vote share of just 35% Labour very nearly blew it in the space of just 6 weeks.

    It's worth comparing the Labour campaigns of 2017 (not 2019!) with 2024. In both campaigns, the Conservatives messed up badly (social care in 2017, D day etc in 2024.) In both campaigns, Brexit wasn't an issue either (much as the Conservatives tried to make it one.) So the door was open to Labour in both campaigns.

    Yet in 2017, during the campaign Labour's polling increased by 15% (from 26% to 41%) whereas in 2024 Labour's share fell by 10% (from about 45% to 35%).

    The difference was that in 2017, Labour set out ambitious plans, together with a costed programme of how it was going to be paid for that was plausible enough to reassure rather than scare voters off. Now how plausible that funding programme was in reality was another thing of course, but the fact is that plenty of people were prepared to vote for it.
    In 2017 we lost. This year we won.

    Everything else is secondary.
    That's a head in the sand attitude guaranteed to lead to defeat in 2029. You think that Labour can continue to win general elections with just 35% of the vote. I don't and I think lessons need to be learned. This year Starmer got lucky thanks to Reform, and thus an absolutely inept Labour campaign was insufficient to erode enough the 20% advantage which (to his credit) he'd built up and maintained since 2022.

    It's a real question - why did Labour's vote share deteriorate so much from the 45% at the start of the campaign to the actual 35% achieved on polling day, despite the apparent horlicks that Sunak made of the Conservative campaign? About 7% of that decline was in the opinion polls, and a further 3% the difference between the final polls and the actual result, but the latter shouldn't be accepted as inevitable either because in 2017 Labour polled better than the final polls were suggesting in contrast to 2024. I think that the answer to why the polls were wrong in 2024 but not 2017 is simple - in 2017 Labour supporters were motivated positively to vote, whereas in 2024 the positive motivation was much less.
    I disagree with this assessment. Polling errors aren't the responsibility of campaigns. Losing voting share might be. Apart from Starmer's unforced error on Gaza, which definitely did cause Labour to shed votes, he didn't put a foot wrong during the campaign. This resulted in a utterly convincing mandate for the next five years, which is the only purpose of the election for the winning party.

    Labour might lose the next election. It will only do so if something big changes. And something big changes, the 2024 election won't provide lessons to learn in the new situation.

    To put this more simply, how Starmer governs might lose Labour the next election. How he ran the previous campaign won't.
    That's true to an extent, but his landslide is (paradoxically) paper-thin. The number of times ministers have already used the word "mandate" is concerning - he has no mandate for pretty much anything except "be less incompetent than the Tories were".

    If he starts using his majority to force through unpopular policies not mentioned in the campaign he risks running into political trouble very quickly. He could have had a much stronger manifesto and got a majority of, say, 70 and then he'd be in a much stronger political position now.

    The concern is that if Labour implode before the Tories sort themselves out, Farage is the only one who benefits.
    The assumption in your argument I think is if Starmer is bold now he may likely piss off so many people he loses the next election. But if he already had pissed them off before the just held election he would be less likely to lose next time.

    Possible but I don't think that's how it works. Better to get as many people as you can to vote for you and bag the result.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,369
    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I've just been looking at wiki's list of prisoners with whole life orders (and its predecessors). And it's surprising how there is an increasing number of people being jailed with this sentence. There used to be one every few years; now there are several most years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole_life_orders

    I cannot believe that this is due to Britain somehow becoming more violent, and it cannot fully be down to the abolition of the death sentence.

    It seems to me that most sentences are ridiculously long. The first two cases mentioned in your wiki clip are Rose West and someone Copeland.

    If the purpose of the sentence is to keep dangerous people away from the public does it really make sense to keep Rose West in prison for her natural life? She's an old woman already?

    As for Copeland he was sentenced to a minimum of 30 years and that was increased on appeal to 50 years! If it's for punishment I doubt he cares less whether it's 30 years or 50 years.

    Both will feel like infinity. So the punishment value hasn't increased. If it for rehabilitation then that's plainly silly.

    It's time sentences were looked at and whether rehabilitation is part of it.
    There is also the deterrence element to sentencing. It’s probably less relevant to stopping murderers as they will often be heat of the moment or nutters who don’t think or care about the consequences. But deterrence will work for a number of crimes.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,027
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    The 2024 Labour campaign did have an effect. The timid Ming vase strategy caused Labour to shed millions of votes. It was a dire campaign from start to finish, totally lacking in ambition. Labour won because the Conservatives were so dire, yet with a GB wide vote vote share of just 35% Labour very nearly blew it in the space of just 6 weeks.

    It's worth comparing the Labour campaigns of 2017 (not 2019!) with 2024. In both campaigns, the Conservatives messed up badly (social care in 2017, D day etc in 2024.) In both campaigns, Brexit wasn't an issue either (much as the Conservatives tried to make it one.) So the door was open to Labour in both campaigns.

    Yet in 2017, during the campaign Labour's polling increased by 15% (from 26% to 41%) whereas in 2024 Labour's share fell by 10% (from about 45% to 35%).

    The difference was that in 2017, Labour set out ambitious plans, together with a costed programme of how it was going to be paid for that was plausible enough to reassure rather than scare voters off. Now how plausible that funding programme was in reality was another thing of course, but the fact is that plenty of people were prepared to vote for it.
    In 2017 we lost. This year we won.

    Everything else is secondary.
    That's a head in the sand attitude guaranteed to lead to defeat in 2029. You think that Labour can continue to win general elections with just 35% of the vote. I don't and I think lessons need to be learned. This year Starmer got lucky thanks to Reform, and thus an absolutely inept Labour campaign was insufficient to erode enough the 20% advantage which (to his credit) he'd built up and maintained since 2022.

    It's a real question - why did Labour's vote share deteriorate so much from the 45% at the start of the campaign to the actual 35% achieved on polling day, despite the apparent horlicks that Sunak made of the Conservative campaign? About 7% of that decline was in the opinion polls, and a further 3% the difference between the final polls and the actual result, but the latter shouldn't be accepted as inevitable either because in 2017 Labour polled better than the final polls were suggesting in contrast to 2024. I think that the answer to why the polls were wrong in 2024 but not 2017 is simple - in 2017 Labour supporters were motivated positively to vote, whereas in 2024 the positive motivation was much less.
    I agree. Not much to get enthused about other than they weren't Tory though I'm pretty convinced this would have been enough to get him over the line anyway.

    However his complete ignorance and indifference to the plight of the Palestinians particularly towards the end of the campaign didn't help. There was definitely a feeling from Labour voters as the atrocities grew that if there were other ways of getting rid of the Tories without risk then they should be tried.
    Yeah, we got it all wrong. Could have held on to a couple of seats we lost to "independents", and maybe gained Keighley, while at the same time failing to gain 100 of the seats we won from the Tories. How could Labour have been so stupid?
    I was answering the question 'why did Labour only get 34% of the vote" The simple answer was there was a bigger share out among non Tory Parties and the polls showed would be Labour voters they could do a small protest without consequences. Of course it didn't do them any damage but people seem puzzled why they didn't do better than 34%
    This is exactly my analysis.
    In a close election, people will focus on which of the two big parties they prefer. But this election was sui generis - we haven't had an election with this little jeopardy and with so many options, well, ever. Even in 1997 there was some nagging doubt. And in 1997 few constituencies had more than four options.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    Of course.

    And in social services, you're damned if you do, and damned if you don't. (How were the signs missed???)
    Far less consequence (rarely any) if you confiscate the kids and it turns out you did so wrongly than if you don't do anything wrongly in which case a media and state agency circus follows.

    Thats how bureaucracies and their precautionary principle works. Better to send them to a camp in Siberia for 20 years than risk them being dangerous traitors now that the KGB has found that there is a risk that they might be traitors after tapping their phone.



    How many kids are taken into protection each week in the UK?

    What processes are there?

    Is a judge involved?

    What appeal opportunities are there for parents?

    I ask all these questions, because "a story" is usually a dangerously limited set of information to work off.
    106 kids per day, 38,792 per year. So 742 per week.

    https://homeforgood.org.uk/statistics

    Yes of course there are processes, but unless you are very wealthy and can afford decent legal representation the processes are hopelessly stacked against you, not least as it is a civil not criminal law process so balance of probability with state agencies word carrying a presumption of correctness unless otherwise proven.

    Hold on, that's 106 kids total going into care being looked after, that's not 106 kids being taken away from parents.

    There are many reasons kids enter the care system. Orphans with nobody to look after them. Parents who abandon their kids. Parents who give their kids up as they can't/don't want to look after them. Parents who are temporarily hospitalised or otherwise too ill to look after children with no other support system, so care is temporarily needed until the parent recovers. And yes, children taken into care against their parents will as well.

    You can't count the former as the latter.

    EDIT: That's looked after children data not care data, so I believe homeless families who are given temporary accommodation (with the children still with their parents in the accommodation) are counted in that data too.
    Woah: it's almost like it's a complicated subject.
    Anyone with experience of the care system know just how complicated.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,387
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:



    eek said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you see coloured people and all I see is a certain set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people is probably a decent representation of the population of that area..
    We do need to encourage assimilation of the traditional style of British rioting.

    1) Clash songs
    2) Shaved headed yobs
    3) Punch ups with the TSG
    Etc

    #SaveTheBritishRiot
    They need to take style advice as well. Pristine white trainers, hoodies and tracksuit bottoms are not remotely as menacing as 16 hole DMs, rolled up jeans and bomber jackets. And let’s see properly buzz cut heads rather than the effeminate shaved sides with a big flourish of curls on top.
    I have it!

    British Riot Week - a week of events celebrating the traditional British riot.

    Start off with a re-enactment of the head count reduction of Simon of Sudbury.

    Don’t want to make it too London centred though.
    The only problem with that is that our riots are amateurish compared to the French...

    On the other hand it would make an interesting Olympic event...
    Well, obviously British Riot week would include stalls and events from other leading rioting nations.

    South Korea used to some absolutely magnificent riots.
    This discussion does seem to have a rather narrow meaning of "British." Quite ironic when we have the Orange marching season upon us.
    On my checking of Ashfield vs Clacton demographics, one interesting in both is a HUGE swing in "identity" from "English only" to "British only".

    But is that not partially due to the re-ordering of the questions in the latest census?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,699
    FF43 said:

    Driver said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    The 2024 Labour campaign did have an effect. The timid Ming vase strategy caused Labour to shed millions of votes. It was a dire campaign from start to finish, totally lacking in ambition. Labour won because the Conservatives were so dire, yet with a GB wide vote vote share of just 35% Labour very nearly blew it in the space of just 6 weeks.

    It's worth comparing the Labour campaigns of 2017 (not 2019!) with 2024. In both campaigns, the Conservatives messed up badly (social care in 2017, D day etc in 2024.) In both campaigns, Brexit wasn't an issue either (much as the Conservatives tried to make it one.) So the door was open to Labour in both campaigns.

    Yet in 2017, during the campaign Labour's polling increased by 15% (from 26% to 41%) whereas in 2024 Labour's share fell by 10% (from about 45% to 35%).

    The difference was that in 2017, Labour set out ambitious plans, together with a costed programme of how it was going to be paid for that was plausible enough to reassure rather than scare voters off. Now how plausible that funding programme was in reality was another thing of course, but the fact is that plenty of people were prepared to vote for it.
    In 2017 we lost. This year we won.

    Everything else is secondary.
    That's a head in the sand attitude guaranteed to lead to defeat in 2029. You think that Labour can continue to win general elections with just 35% of the vote. I don't and I think lessons need to be learned. This year Starmer got lucky thanks to Reform, and thus an absolutely inept Labour campaign was insufficient to erode enough the 20% advantage which (to his credit) he'd built up and maintained since 2022.

    It's a real question - why did Labour's vote share deteriorate so much from the 45% at the start of the campaign to the actual 35% achieved on polling day, despite the apparent horlicks that Sunak made of the Conservative campaign? About 7% of that decline was in the opinion polls, and a further 3% the difference between the final polls and the actual result, but the latter shouldn't be accepted as inevitable either because in 2017 Labour polled better than the final polls were suggesting in contrast to 2024. I think that the answer to why the polls were wrong in 2024 but not 2017 is simple - in 2017 Labour supporters were motivated positively to vote, whereas in 2024 the positive motivation was much less.
    I disagree with this assessment. Polling errors aren't the responsibility of campaigns. Losing voting share might be. Apart from Starmer's unforced error on Gaza, which definitely did cause Labour to shed votes, he didn't put a foot wrong during the campaign. This resulted in a utterly convincing mandate for the next five years, which is the only purpose of the election for the winning party.

    Labour might lose the next election. It will only do so if something big changes. And something big changes, the 2024 election won't provide lessons to learn in the new situation.

    To put this more simply, how Starmer governs might lose Labour the next election. How he ran the previous campaign won't.
    That's true to an extent, but his landslide is (paradoxically) paper-thin. The number of times ministers have already used the word "mandate" is concerning - he has no mandate for pretty much anything except "be less incompetent than the Tories were".

    If he starts using his majority to force through unpopular policies not mentioned in the campaign he risks running into political trouble very quickly. He could have had a much stronger manifesto and got a majority of, say, 70 and then he'd be in a much stronger political position now.

    The concern is that if Labour implode before the Tories sort themselves out, Farage is the only one who benefits.
    The assumption in your argument I think is if Starmer is bold now he may likely piss off so many people he loses the next election. But if he already had pissed them off before the just held election he would be less likely to lose next time.

    Possible but I don't think that's how it works. Better to get as many people as you can to vote for you and bag the result.
    He only got 35% as it was. My view is that if he was going to fall from 45% to 35% he'd have been better off doing it in a way that got him support for an actual programme of government, because the country certainly needs it.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Nigelb said:

    This raises the somewhat alarming possibility that we’re already in a feedback loop, with higher global temperatures reducing the ability of global systems (ocean; soils; vegetation, etc) to absorb atmospheric CO2.

    Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447
    In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 +/- 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6 +/- 0.5%. This implies an unprecedented weakening of land and ocean sinks, and raises the question of where and why this reduction happened. Here we show a global net land CO2 sink of 0.44 +/- 0.21 GtC yr-1, the weakest since 2003. We used dynamic global vegetation models, satellites fire emissions, an atmospheric inversion based on OCO-2 measurements, and emulators of ocean biogeochemical and data driven models to deliver a fast-track carbon budget in 2023. Those models ensured consistency with previous carbon budgets. Regional flux anomalies from 2015-2022 are consistent between top-down and bottom-up approaches, with the largest abnormal carbon loss in the Amazon during the drought in the second half of 2023 (0.31 +/- 0.19 GtC yr-1), extreme fire emissions of 0.58 +/- 0.10 GtC yr-1 in Canada and a loss in South-East Asia (0.13 +/- 0.12 GtC yr-1). Since 2015, land CO2 uptake north of 20 degree N declined by half to 1.13 +/- 0.24 GtC yr-1 in 2023. Meanwhile, the tropics recovered from the 2015-16 El Nino carbon loss, gained carbon during the La Nina years (2020-2023), then switched to a carbon loss during the 2023 El Nino (0.56 +/- 0.23 GtC yr-1). The ocean sink was stronger than normal in the equatorial eastern Pacific due to reduced upwelling from La Nina's retreat in early 2023 and the development of El Nino later. Land regions exposed to extreme heat in 2023 contributed a gross carbon loss of 1.73 GtC yr-1, indicating that record warming in 2023 had a strong negative impact on the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change...

    If we continue to see data like this over the next year or so, there will be discussions about emergency measures.

    No emergency measures will be taken, because extreme warming is grist to the Net Zero mill. Can't have measures taken that might result in global cooling. The PR implications would be unthinkable.
    Climate change deniers have been claiming global cooling and/or temperatures plateuing would be just round the corner for years. Instead temperatures have gone up and up.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,361
    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Good morning PBers. Should be an interesting day at Trent Bridge.

    I spent most of yesterday listening to the commentary. Not a particularly remarkable day's play, but a thoroughly entertaining day's commentary. Amongst otger things I learned quite a bit about West Indies 20th century history. I had no idea that captains of the West Indies were always white until Frank Worral (nor indeed that so many other jobs were traditionally held by white people until the 1950s - the white population of the West Indies must have been substantial.)

    Also good to see some West Indian batsmen batting like test cricketers. The WI team is part of the iconography of cricket and it makes me sad to see them fail too often.
    I love TMS commentary.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,753
    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I've just been looking at wiki's list of prisoners with whole life orders (and its predecessors). And it's surprising how there is an increasing number of people being jailed with this sentence. There used to be one every few years; now there are several most years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole_life_orders

    I cannot believe that this is due to Britain somehow becoming more violent, and it cannot fully be down to the abolition of the death sentence.

    It seems to me that most sentences are ridiculously long. The first two cases mentioned in your wiki clip are Rose West and someone Copeland.

    If the purpose of the sentence is to keep dangerous people away from the public does it really make sense to keep Rose West in prison for her natural life? She's an old woman already?

    As for Copeland he was sentenced to a minimum of 30 years and that was increased on appeal to 50 years! If it's for punishment I doubt he cares less whether it's 30 years or 50 years.

    Both will feel like infinity. So the punishment value hasn't increased. If it for rehabilitation then that's plainly silly.

    It's time sentences were looked at and whether rehabilitation is part of it.
    call me old fashioned but if you murder in a way that gets you a whole life sentence , I think you deserve not to have a life
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,910
    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Good morning PBers. Should be an interesting day at Trent Bridge.

    I spent most of yesterday listening to the commentary. Not a particularly remarkable day's play, but a thoroughly entertaining day's commentary. Amongst otger things I learned quite a bit about West Indies 20th century history. I had no idea that captains of the West Indies were always white until Frank Worral (nor indeed that so many other jobs were traditionally held by white people until the 1950s - the white population of the West Indies must have been substantial.)

    Also good to see some West Indian batsmen batting like test cricketers. The WI team is part of the iconography of cricket and it makes me sad to see them fail too often.
    I love TMS commentary.
    A huge part of the fabric of my summers since the 1980’s. Happiest when on holiday in Devon and the test match is on. 2019 Headingly, followingly the run chase that ended with Stoke’s heroics. If anyone asks for an example of Englishness, I’d offer TMS commentary, including all the guests who aren’t English. The institution is. Perfect. Gentle ribbing, laughter, a love of cricket (obviously), and the ability to talk about nothing for hour after hour when it rains.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I've just been looking at wiki's list of prisoners with whole life orders (and its predecessors). And it's surprising how there is an increasing number of people being jailed with this sentence. There used to be one every few years; now there are several most years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole_life_orders

    I cannot believe that this is due to Britain somehow becoming more violent, and it cannot fully be down to the abolition of the death sentence.

    It seems to me that most sentences are ridiculously long. The first two cases mentioned in your wiki clip are Rose West and someone Copeland.

    If the purpose of the sentence is to keep dangerous people away from the public does it really make sense to keep Rose West in prison for her natural life? She's an old woman already?

    As for Copeland he was sentenced to a minimum of 30 years and that was increased on appeal to 50 years! If it's for punishment I doubt he cares less whether it's 30 years or 50 years.

    Both will feel like infinity. So the punishment value hasn't increased. If it for rehabilitation then that's plainly silly.

    It's time sentences were looked at and whether rehabilitation is part of it.
    call me old fashioned but if you murder in a way that gets you a whole life sentence , I think you deserve not to have a life
    There are three purposes for jail sentences: punishment, safety to the public, rehabilitation. In that order.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,694
    WillG said:

    Nigelb said:

    This raises the somewhat alarming possibility that we’re already in a feedback loop, with higher global temperatures reducing the ability of global systems (ocean; soils; vegetation, etc) to absorb atmospheric CO2.

    Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447
    In 2023, the CO2 growth rate was 3.37 +/- 0.11 ppm at Mauna Loa, 86% above the previous year, and hitting a record high since observations began in 1958, while global fossil fuel CO2 emissions only increased by 0.6 +/- 0.5%. This implies an unprecedented weakening of land and ocean sinks, and raises the question of where and why this reduction happened. Here we show a global net land CO2 sink of 0.44 +/- 0.21 GtC yr-1, the weakest since 2003. We used dynamic global vegetation models, satellites fire emissions, an atmospheric inversion based on OCO-2 measurements, and emulators of ocean biogeochemical and data driven models to deliver a fast-track carbon budget in 2023. Those models ensured consistency with previous carbon budgets. Regional flux anomalies from 2015-2022 are consistent between top-down and bottom-up approaches, with the largest abnormal carbon loss in the Amazon during the drought in the second half of 2023 (0.31 +/- 0.19 GtC yr-1), extreme fire emissions of 0.58 +/- 0.10 GtC yr-1 in Canada and a loss in South-East Asia (0.13 +/- 0.12 GtC yr-1). Since 2015, land CO2 uptake north of 20 degree N declined by half to 1.13 +/- 0.24 GtC yr-1 in 2023. Meanwhile, the tropics recovered from the 2015-16 El Nino carbon loss, gained carbon during the La Nina years (2020-2023), then switched to a carbon loss during the 2023 El Nino (0.56 +/- 0.23 GtC yr-1). The ocean sink was stronger than normal in the equatorial eastern Pacific due to reduced upwelling from La Nina's retreat in early 2023 and the development of El Nino later. Land regions exposed to extreme heat in 2023 contributed a gross carbon loss of 1.73 GtC yr-1, indicating that record warming in 2023 had a strong negative impact on the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to mitigate climate change...

    If we continue to see data like this over the next year or so, there will be discussions about emergency measures.

    No emergency measures will be taken, because extreme warming is grist to the Net Zero mill. Can't have measures taken that might result in global cooling. The PR implications would be unthinkable.
    Climate change deniers have been claiming global cooling and/or temperatures plateuing would be just round the corner for years. Instead temperatures have gone up and up.
    Quite. So when they ban sulphur fuels in ships and it results in a disastrous rise in sea temperatures, it wouldn't do to try and repair that would it? A fall in sea temperatures due to a human intervention unrelated to decarbonisation? That wouldn't do. Could lead to all sorts of uncomfortable questions. Better to bank the rise in temperatures and blame it on the awful gaz guzzlers wanting to heat their homes and use their cars.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,762

    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Good morning PBers. Should be an interesting day at Trent Bridge.

    I spent most of yesterday listening to the commentary. Not a particularly remarkable day's play, but a thoroughly entertaining day's commentary. Amongst otger things I learned quite a bit about West Indies 20th century history. I had no idea that captains of the West Indies were always white until Frank Worral (nor indeed that so many other jobs were traditionally held by white people until the 1950s - the white population of the West Indies must have been substantial.)

    Also good to see some West Indian batsmen batting like test cricketers. The WI team is part of the iconography of cricket and it makes me sad to see them fail too often.
    I love TMS commentary.
    A huge part of the fabric of my summers since the 1980’s. Happiest when on holiday in Devon and the test match is on. 2019 Headingly, followingly the run chase that ended with Stoke’s heroics. If anyone asks for an example of Englishness, I’d offer TMS commentary, including all the guests who aren’t English. The institution is. Perfect. Gentle ribbing, laughter, a love of cricket (obviously), and the ability to talk about nothing for hour after hour when it rains.
    In many ways, TMS is even better when there’s no cricket. It’s like a civilised discussion in a decent pub with knowledgeable, cricket loving friends.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,456
    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I've just been looking at wiki's list of prisoners with whole life orders (and its predecessors). And it's surprising how there is an increasing number of people being jailed with this sentence. There used to be one every few years; now there are several most years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole_life_orders

    I cannot believe that this is due to Britain somehow becoming more violent, and it cannot fully be down to the abolition of the death sentence.

    It seems to me that most sentences are ridiculously long. The first two cases mentioned in your wiki clip are Rose West and someone Copeland.

    If the purpose of the sentence is to keep dangerous people away from the public does it really make sense to keep Rose West in prison for her natural life? She's an old woman already?

    As for Copeland he was sentenced to a minimum of 30 years and that was increased on appeal to 50 years! If it's for punishment I doubt he cares less whether it's 30 years or 50 years.

    Both will feel like infinity. So the punishment value hasn't increased. If it for rehabilitation then that's plainly silly.

    It's time sentences were looked at and whether rehabilitation is part of it.
    There is no rehabilitation for being a cold and deliberate murderer, West should never be released.

    I oppose the death penalty as an innocent may be executed, and you can release an innocent person from a life sentence on appeal if new evidence comes to light, you can't unexecute a dead person. Life without the possibility of parole is a suitable alternative to the death penalty, so its not required.

    However there is no justification for releasing those who have taken a life. No rehabilitation from that.

    If we ever find out there's been a miscarriage of justice then West should be released. Otherwise, she should remain in jail until she dies.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,456
    WillG said:

    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I've just been looking at wiki's list of prisoners with whole life orders (and its predecessors). And it's surprising how there is an increasing number of people being jailed with this sentence. There used to be one every few years; now there are several most years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole_life_orders

    I cannot believe that this is due to Britain somehow becoming more violent, and it cannot fully be down to the abolition of the death sentence.

    It seems to me that most sentences are ridiculously long. The first two cases mentioned in your wiki clip are Rose West and someone Copeland.

    If the purpose of the sentence is to keep dangerous people away from the public does it really make sense to keep Rose West in prison for her natural life? She's an old woman already?

    As for Copeland he was sentenced to a minimum of 30 years and that was increased on appeal to 50 years! If it's for punishment I doubt he cares less whether it's 30 years or 50 years.

    Both will feel like infinity. So the punishment value hasn't increased. If it for rehabilitation then that's plainly silly.

    It's time sentences were looked at and whether rehabilitation is part of it.
    call me old fashioned but if you murder in a way that gets you a whole life sentence , I think you deserve not to have a life
    There are three purposes for jail sentences: punishment, safety to the public, rehabilitation. In that order.
    I'd swap numbers 1 and 2 around.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,092

    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Good morning PBers. Should be an interesting day at Trent Bridge.

    I spent most of yesterday listening to the commentary. Not a particularly remarkable day's play, but a thoroughly entertaining day's commentary. Amongst otger things I learned quite a bit about West Indies 20th century history. I had no idea that captains of the West Indies were always white until Frank Worral (nor indeed that so many other jobs were traditionally held by white people until the 1950s - the white population of the West Indies must have been substantial.)

    Also good to see some West Indian batsmen batting like test cricketers. The WI team is part of the iconography of cricket and it makes me sad to see them fail too often.
    I love TMS commentary.
    A huge part of the fabric of my summers since the 1980’s. Happiest when on holiday in Devon and the test match is on. 2019 Headingly, followingly the run chase that ended with Stoke’s heroics. If anyone asks for an example of Englishness, I’d offer TMS commentary, including all the guests who aren’t English. The institution is. Perfect. Gentle ribbing, laughter, a love of cricket (obviously), and the ability to talk about nothing for hour after hour when it rains.
    In many ways, TMS is even better when there’s no cricket. It’s like a civilised discussion in a decent pub with knowledgeable, cricket loving friends.
    I don't like cricket... I hate it :lol:
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,688
    WillG said:

    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I've just been looking at wiki's list of prisoners with whole life orders (and its predecessors). And it's surprising how there is an increasing number of people being jailed with this sentence. There used to be one every few years; now there are several most years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole_life_orders

    I cannot believe that this is due to Britain somehow becoming more violent, and it cannot fully be down to the abolition of the death sentence.

    It seems to me that most sentences are ridiculously long. The first two cases mentioned in your wiki clip are Rose West and someone Copeland.

    If the purpose of the sentence is to keep dangerous people away from the public does it really make sense to keep Rose West in prison for her natural life? She's an old woman already?

    As for Copeland he was sentenced to a minimum of 30 years and that was increased on appeal to 50 years! If it's for punishment I doubt he cares less whether it's 30 years or 50 years.

    Both will feel like infinity. So the punishment value hasn't increased. If it for rehabilitation then that's plainly silly.

    It's time sentences were looked at and whether rehabilitation is part of it.
    call me old fashioned but if you murder in a way that gets you a whole life sentence , I think you deserve not to have a life
    There are three purposes for jail sentences: punishment, safety to the public, rehabilitation. In that order.
    Are you viewing deterrence as part of one of those?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776
    WillG said:

    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I've just been looking at wiki's list of prisoners with whole life orders (and its predecessors). And it's surprising how there is an increasing number of people being jailed with this sentence. There used to be one every few years; now there are several most years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole_life_orders

    I cannot believe that this is due to Britain somehow becoming more violent, and it cannot fully be down to the abolition of the death sentence.

    It seems to me that most sentences are ridiculously long. The first two cases mentioned in your wiki clip are Rose West and someone Copeland.

    If the purpose of the sentence is to keep dangerous people away from the public does it really make sense to keep Rose West in prison for her natural life? She's an old woman already?

    As for Copeland he was sentenced to a minimum of 30 years and that was increased on appeal to 50 years! If it's for punishment I doubt he cares less whether it's 30 years or 50 years.

    Both will feel like infinity. So the punishment value hasn't increased. If it for rehabilitation then that's plainly silly.

    It's time sentences were looked at and whether rehabilitation is part of it.
    call me old fashioned but if you murder in a way that gets you a whole life sentence , I think you deserve not to have a life
    There are three purposes for jail sentences: punishment, safety to the public, rehabilitation. In that order.
    Punishment
    Reduction in crime (either through deterrence or simple incarceration of criminals)
    Retribution for the victims
    Reform and/or rehabilitation

    The last item is every bit as important as the others, otherwise the state is complicit in future crimes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776
    Talking of criminals.
    Donald Trump is on the cusp of escaping unscathed from his four criminal prosecutions — thanks almost entirely to the decisions of four judges he appointed
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/20/trump-legal-woes-judges-appointed-00169875
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776
    Nate Silver is now effectively employed by Peter Thiel.
    (Note, for the next time someone cites him as an authority.)

    Polymarket Hires Nate Silver After Taking in $265M of Bets on U.S. Election
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-hires-nate-silver-taking-154956290.html
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,274

    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Good morning PBers. Should be an interesting day at Trent Bridge.

    I spent most of yesterday listening to the commentary. Not a particularly remarkable day's play, but a thoroughly entertaining day's commentary. Amongst otger things I learned quite a bit about West Indies 20th century history. I had no idea that captains of the West Indies were always white until Frank Worral (nor indeed that so many other jobs were traditionally held by white people until the 1950s - the white population of the West Indies must have been substantial.)

    Also good to see some West Indian batsmen batting like test cricketers. The WI team is part of the iconography of cricket and it makes me sad to see them fail too often.
    I love TMS commentary.
    A huge part of the fabric of my summers since the 1980’s. Happiest when on holiday in Devon and the test match is on. 2019 Headingly, followingly the run chase that ended with Stoke’s heroics. If anyone asks for an example of Englishness, I’d offer TMS commentary, including all the guests who aren’t English. The institution is. Perfect. Gentle ribbing, laughter, a love of cricket (obviously), and the ability to talk about nothing for hour after hour when it rains.
    In many ways, TMS is even better when there’s no cricket. It’s like a civilised discussion in a decent pub with knowledgeable, cricket loving friends.
    I don't like cricket... I hate it :lol:
    Did you once find yourself (some portion thereof) trapped in a sticky wicket?

    AND was it sticky BEFORE it entrapped you? (Perhaps PB's resident publicist for onanism will comment!)
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,753
    Nigelb said:

    WillG said:

    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I've just been looking at wiki's list of prisoners with whole life orders (and its predecessors). And it's surprising how there is an increasing number of people being jailed with this sentence. There used to be one every few years; now there are several most years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole_life_orders

    I cannot believe that this is due to Britain somehow becoming more violent, and it cannot fully be down to the abolition of the death sentence.

    It seems to me that most sentences are ridiculously long. The first two cases mentioned in your wiki clip are Rose West and someone Copeland.

    If the purpose of the sentence is to keep dangerous people away from the public does it really make sense to keep Rose West in prison for her natural life? She's an old woman already?

    As for Copeland he was sentenced to a minimum of 30 years and that was increased on appeal to 50 years! If it's for punishment I doubt he cares less whether it's 30 years or 50 years.

    Both will feel like infinity. So the punishment value hasn't increased. If it for rehabilitation then that's plainly silly.

    It's time sentences were looked at and whether rehabilitation is part of it.
    call me old fashioned but if you murder in a way that gets you a whole life sentence , I think you deserve not to have a life
    There are three purposes for jail sentences: punishment, safety to the public, rehabilitation. In that order.
    Punishment
    Reduction in crime (either through deterrence or simple incarceration of criminals)
    Retribution for the victims
    Reform and/or rehabilitation

    The last item is every bit as important as the others, otherwise the state is complicit in future crimes.
    the last one has unfortunate unitended consequences like the cases where people who have always maintained their innocence (because they were) are left to rot because they are not rehabilitated (by not admitting their crime) - sometimes more simple to give a sentence and let criminals serve it
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776

    Nigelb said:

    WillG said:

    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I've just been looking at wiki's list of prisoners with whole life orders (and its predecessors). And it's surprising how there is an increasing number of people being jailed with this sentence. There used to be one every few years; now there are several most years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole_life_orders

    I cannot believe that this is due to Britain somehow becoming more violent, and it cannot fully be down to the abolition of the death sentence.

    It seems to me that most sentences are ridiculously long. The first two cases mentioned in your wiki clip are Rose West and someone Copeland.

    If the purpose of the sentence is to keep dangerous people away from the public does it really make sense to keep Rose West in prison for her natural life? She's an old woman already?

    As for Copeland he was sentenced to a minimum of 30 years and that was increased on appeal to 50 years! If it's for punishment I doubt he cares less whether it's 30 years or 50 years.

    Both will feel like infinity. So the punishment value hasn't increased. If it for rehabilitation then that's plainly silly.

    It's time sentences were looked at and whether rehabilitation is part of it.
    call me old fashioned but if you murder in a way that gets you a whole life sentence , I think you deserve not to have a life
    There are three purposes for jail sentences: punishment, safety to the public, rehabilitation. In that order.
    Punishment
    Reduction in crime (either through deterrence or simple incarceration of criminals)
    Retribution for the victims
    Reform and/or rehabilitation

    The last item is every bit as important as the others, otherwise the state is complicit in future crimes.
    the last one has unfortunate unitended consequences like the cases where people who have always maintained their innocence (because they were) are left to rot because they are not rehabilitated (by not admitting their crime) - sometimes more simple to give a sentence and let criminals serve it
    That sounds like rationalisation for running a system which ignores rehabilitation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,776
    Nigelb said:

    Nate Silver is now effectively employed by Peter Thiel.
    (Note, for the next time someone cites him as an authority.)

    Polymarket Hires Nate Silver After Taking in $265M of Bets on U.S. Election
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-hires-nate-silver-taking-154956290.html

    (nb, so is JD Vance.)
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,753
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    WillG said:

    Roger said:

    Off-topic:

    I've just been looking at wiki's list of prisoners with whole life orders (and its predecessors). And it's surprising how there is an increasing number of people being jailed with this sentence. There used to be one every few years; now there are several most years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prisoners_with_whole_life_orders

    I cannot believe that this is due to Britain somehow becoming more violent, and it cannot fully be down to the abolition of the death sentence.

    It seems to me that most sentences are ridiculously long. The first two cases mentioned in your wiki clip are Rose West and someone Copeland.

    If the purpose of the sentence is to keep dangerous people away from the public does it really make sense to keep Rose West in prison for her natural life? She's an old woman already?

    As for Copeland he was sentenced to a minimum of 30 years and that was increased on appeal to 50 years! If it's for punishment I doubt he cares less whether it's 30 years or 50 years.

    Both will feel like infinity. So the punishment value hasn't increased. If it for rehabilitation then that's plainly silly.

    It's time sentences were looked at and whether rehabilitation is part of it.
    call me old fashioned but if you murder in a way that gets you a whole life sentence , I think you deserve not to have a life
    There are three purposes for jail sentences: punishment, safety to the public, rehabilitation. In that order.
    Punishment
    Reduction in crime (either through deterrence or simple incarceration of criminals)
    Retribution for the victims
    Reform and/or rehabilitation

    The last item is every bit as important as the others, otherwise the state is complicit in future crimes.
    the last one has unfortunate unitended consequences like the cases where people who have always maintained their innocence (because they were) are left to rot because they are not rehabilitated (by not admitting their crime) - sometimes more simple to give a sentence and let criminals serve it
    That sounds like rationalisation for running a system which ignores rehabilitation.
    well perhaps it is - never sure how you can quarantee rehabilitation in a prison anyway - Isn't it better to do it on the outside after the end of a sentence ? Rehabiliation has to come from within the individual anyway its not a state responsibility
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,538

    NEW THREAD

  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 20

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    Of course.

    And in social services, you're damned if you do, and damned if you don't. (How were the signs missed???)
    Far less consequence (rarely any) if you confiscate the kids and it turns out you did so wrongly than if you don't do anything wrongly in which case a media and state agency circus follows.

    Thats how bureaucracies and their precautionary principle works. Better to send them to a camp in Siberia for 20 years than risk them being dangerous traitors now that the KGB has found that there is a risk that they might be traitors after tapping their phone.



    How many kids are taken into protection each week in the UK?

    What processes are there?

    Is a judge involved?

    What appeal opportunities are there for parents?

    I ask all these questions, because "a story" is usually a dangerously limited set of information to work off.
    106 kids per day, 38,792 per year. So 742 per week.

    https://homeforgood.org.uk/statistics

    Yes of course there are processes, but unless you are very wealthy and can afford decent legal representation the processes are hopelessly stacked against you, not least as it is a civil not criminal law process so balance of probability with state agencies word carrying a presumption of correctness unless otherwise proven.

    Hold on, that's 106 kids total going into care being looked after, that's not 106 kids being taken away from parents.

    There are many reasons kids enter the care system. Orphans with nobody to look after them. Parents who abandon their kids. Parents who give their kids up as they can't/don't want to look after them. Parents who are temporarily hospitalised or otherwise too ill to look after children with no other support system, so care is temporarily needed until the parent recovers. And yes, children taken into care against their parents will as well.

    You can't count the former as the latter.

    EDIT: That's looked after children data not care data, so I believe homeless families who are given temporary accommodation (with the children still with their parents in the accommodation) are counted in that data too.
    Be interesting to know what the figure is, that was the best source I could find. The same site says that 104,808 kids are being looked after away from home in the UK.

    What all sites discussing it agree on is that the numbers have been inexorably rising for years.

    In the five years after Baby P the number taken into care doubled (2008 to 2013) and since then has continued to rise with a further 50% rise (in England) from 2015-2021

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2517239/CHRISTOPHER-BOOKER-A-terrible-act-inhumanity-shows-justice-secret.html.

    https://www.countycouncilsnetwork.org.uk/number-of-children-in-care-could-reach-almost-100000-by-2025-as-county-leaders-call-for-an-unrelenting-focus-on-keeping-families-together/

    Sadly Christopher Booker is no longer alive to shine alight on this most Kafkaesque corner of the state and John Hemming is no longer an MP and able to use parliamentary privilege to ignore secret injunctions by mluds.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,879

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:



    eek said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It seems that last nights further demonstrations against the Child Snatchers General (Leeds Social Services) were peaceful and well attended.

    Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).

    The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.

    There will be much more to this story than your short synopsis above.
    The Times have the story.

    Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.

    They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
    Has Farage apologised for blaming people from the subcontinent?

    A silly question, I know.

    And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
    A number of the usual suspects joined in - known trouble makers of various ethnicities.

    From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
    Yes, as I said the next morning: relatively hot, muggy weather is prime rioting time.

    But Farage said: "The politics of the subcontinent are currently playing out on the streets of Leeds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you."

    Do you think he was right?
    Nope - because it seems to have been the local "subcontinent" leaders trying to calm things down..
    Message to all the Brits that don’t think we’re part of Europe. Do you think Britain is a subcontinent?
    Subincontinent for a few years but beginning that long slow journey back to not smelling of poo.
    Sorry, but @eek, your logical contortions on this should really be mentioned - why do you think community leaders of communities originating in the subcontinent were trying to calm things down? Could it possibly be because members of their own communities were doing the rioting? It is simply gaslighting to highlight the (very admirable and brave) speech of the few, and ignore the actions of the many that necessitated it.

    For the record, I don’t blame any immigrant communities for this - neither muslim communities nor romany communities are responsible fundamentally. The culprits are our own authorities and successive Governments, both those who have allowed immigration at a level where the migrants could never be successfully integrated into British society, and those who have failed to regulate and police those communities, which as a consequence have their own authorities, their own way of life, and don't take kindly to being told what to do by (in this instance) social workers or the police.
    Nope there are feral families everywhere including in communities that are 100% British "working" class.

    The issue here the age old one of boredom, feeling hard done by and heat generating riot conditions as soon as any trigger occurs.
    Are you actually saying that community leaders from communities of Asian origin came on the streets to urge white people to stop rioting?
    I take it you don't live or have dealings with Inner city / town multicultural areas.
    I’m from Northern Ireland. It’s disgraceful to suggest that we need to import people into Britain to do riots. This is exactly the kind of running down Britain that gives us a bad name.

    We have a long traditional of violent street protest of the highest quality, supplied by native artisans. Some of the finest renta-mobs in Europe, as well.

    #BackBritshMadeStreetViolence
    I appreciate you're jesting, but I hope it's clear that that's absolutely not what I'm suggesting. Of course home-grown scrotes will riot, and of course most riots are somewhat mixed. I merely question the unthinking rush to condemn Farage's comment, which flies in the face of the video evidence of the composition of these rioters, purely on the basis of the trigger point being unrelated to communities originating on the subcontinent - which as I've said, fails to understand the notion of a riot as a mass activity in which each rioter makes a decision whether or not to participate.

    I lay the blame squarely at the feet of the police and authorities' actions over the long term - if they had totally failed to police gingers, or the Isle of Wight, or Huddersfield Town fans, we could be seeing similar things happen there.
    Your problem is that you see coloured people and all I see is a certain set of people a certain age in an area protesting - and that set of people is probably a decent representation of the population of that area..
    We do need to encourage assimilation of the traditional style of British rioting.

    1) Clash songs
    2) Shaved headed yobs
    3) Punch ups with the TSG
    Etc

    #SaveTheBritishRiot
    They need to take style advice as well. Pristine white trainers, hoodies and tracksuit bottoms are not remotely as menacing as 16 hole DMs, rolled up jeans and bomber jackets. And let’s see properly buzz cut heads rather than the effeminate shaved sides with a big flourish of curls on top.
    I have it!

    British Riot Week - a week of events celebrating the traditional British riot.

    Start off with a re-enactment of the head count reduction of Simon of Sudbury.

    Don’t want to make it too London centred though.
    The only problem with that is that our riots are amateurish compared to the French...

    On the other hand it would make an interesting Olympic event...
    Well, obviously British Riot week would include stalls and events from other leading rioting nations.

    South Korea used to some absolutely magnificent riots.
    This discussion does seem to have a rather narrow meaning of "British." Quite ironic when we have the Orange marching season upon us.
    On my checking of Ashfield vs Clacton demographics, one interesting in both is a HUGE swing in "identity" from "English only" to "British only".

    But is that not partially due to the re-ordering of the questions in the latest census?
    Very possble.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,583
    edited July 21

    DavidL said:

    The impression I got was that the various campaigns had almost no effect at all, with the possible exception of Ed Davey whose various antics got attention for the Lib Dems and really boosted their performance well beyond what was expected.

    Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.

    Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.

    Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.

    I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.

    The 2024 Labour campaign did have an effect. The timid Ming vase strategy caused Labour to shed millions of votes. It was a dire campaign from start to finish, totally lacking in ambition. Labour won because the Conservatives were so dire, yet with a GB wide vote vote share of just 35% Labour very nearly blew it in the space of just 6 weeks.

    It's worth comparing the Labour campaigns of 2017 (not 2019!) with 2024. In both campaigns, the Conservatives messed up badly (social care in 2017, D day etc in 2024.) In both campaigns, Brexit wasn't an issue either (much as the Conservatives tried to make it one.) So the door was open to Labour in both campaigns.

    Yet in 2017, during the campaign Labour's polling increased by 15% (from 26% to 41%) whereas in 2024 Labour's share fell by 10% (from about 45% to 35%).

    The difference was that in 2017, Labour set out ambitious plans, together with a costed programme of how it was going to be paid for that was plausible enough to reassure rather than scare voters off. Now how plausible that funding programme was in reality was another thing of course, but the fact is that plenty of people were prepared to vote for it.
    In 2017 we lost. This year we won.

    Everything else is secondary.
    That's a head in the sand attitude guaranteed to lead to defeat in 2029. You think that Labour can continue to win general elections with just 35% of the vote. I don't and I think lessons need to be learned. This year Starmer got lucky thanks to Reform, and thus an absolutely inept Labour campaign was insufficient to erode enough the 20% advantage which (to his credit) he'd built up and maintained since 2022.

    It's a real question - why did Labour's vote share deteriorate so much from the 45% at the start of the campaign to the actual 35% achieved on polling day, despite the apparent horlicks that Sunak made of the Conservative campaign? About 7% of that decline was in the opinion polls, and a further 3% the difference between the final polls and the actual result, but the latter shouldn't be accepted as inevitable either because in 2017 Labour polled better than the final polls were suggesting in contrast to 2024. I think that the answer to why the polls were wrong in 2024 but not 2017 is simple - in 2017 Labour supporters were motivated positively to vote, whereas in 2024 the positive motivation was much less.
    As per the Ashcroft data, Labour started with nearly half of those who had made up their mind before the campaign, won a quarter of those who decided during the campaign (which would include any mind-changers), to finish with about a third of the vote overall. Of those who decided during the campaign, a large number only made their minds up late, and hence their decision wasn’t polled. That’s both the story of the campaign and the story of the polling fail.

    Some analyst made the point elsewhere that Labour and the LibDems in the south can now almost be regarded psephologically as the same party campaigning in different colours, attracting the same people for broadly the same reasons. Their combined seat haul can therefore be understood as the result of a 45% v 24% landslide FPTP result.

    As well as voters being adept at working out which opposition party to back in their seat (Heathener and Palmer excepted), other reasons for the low winning %age are likely to include:

    - a safety-first campaign from Labour, intended not to upset its existing support rather than inspire or convert the undecideds;
    - abstentions esp in Labour held seats as people knew they’d win anyway (turnout did fall the most in Labour’s holds);
    - Green, Indy and other left-wing votes in Labour held seats, ditto;
    - the collapse of the SNP enabling Labour to sweep Scotland without extra votes;
    - an absence of tactical voting amongst the parties of the right;
    - Farage/Reform being seen as a free hit for both NOTO protestors and, again, voters in seats Labour was going to win anyway.

    A lot if Tories including our HY seem to think that solving the Reform problem would put the Tories straight back in the game. But then lots of Labour people have imagined that if only the centre party would disappear, they’d be able to beat the Tories alone, but the former has never yet happened.

    Aside from their lack of ground game and flaky candidates, Reform has the disadvantage that whereas the LibDems can be seen as Labour-lite (in some ways unfairly, but there we are), Reform is clearly Tory-heavy, and not attractive to more moderate Tories. Hence the Rotherham result that, despite no Tory candidate, didn’t see any significant boost to Reform. And similarly, this time at least, Reform voters (despite being majority former Tories) didn’t have any net preference for the Tories as second choice over LibDem/Labour - hence the West Dorset result.

    Had Reform not stood, all the evidence is that the Tories would have won just as badly - something they will struggle to accept, as having a supposed ‘split’ to blame offers the same comfort blanket that Labour activists clung to in 1983.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,583
    Incidentally, I guess YouGov did better with its modelling because it pushed people - including the critical UNDs - with supplementary questions about which way they were leaning, and is polling people about whom it has a long historical dataset. Somehow they got to a better model than those simply polling new people chosen at random.
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