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Making your mind up – politicalbetting.com
Making your mind up – politicalbetting.com
Nigel Farage’s entry into the campaign helped solidify the voting intentions of Reform UK supporters, with those who had definitely made their minds up jumping from 45% to 54% after he returned as leader of the partyBy contrast, it wasn't until much later in the campaign that… pic.twitter.com/UnEeTtyuwE
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Oh what an excellent start to the weekend.
It was odd timing for all sorts of reasons. They may have been a rate cut by BOE which would have been welcomed by mortgage holders. Rwanda flights *may* have taken off by then etc.
It makes sense if there was going to be a leadership challenge and Rishi wanted to avoid that by sneakily calling an election. The cabinet should have challenged him but failed to do so or did not succeed enough. This might also explain why a number of cabinet ministers (Hunt for example) failed to campaign on the national level focussing on their own seats.
Such a brilliant idea that President Biden has nicked it to sell his memoirs and will hold the election on bonfire night.
Bucks Fizz.
Inspired work.
"Proctologist" is rather kind.
The problem is that when the political class becomes rotten, there isn't a spare competent political class, so people turn to what there is.
Personally I think the UK civil service and public sector is irreformable** and Labour for all their good intentions are wedded to technocratic regulation so will make things worse.
It will come to a head when the government cannot shift gilts, so can no longer fund their debts. It won't be fun though, especially in the cities.
** There are some really good people in the public sector, islands of hardworking competence, but they are tied down gulliver like by unthinking bureacracy which many who wouldn't last five minutes in a private sector job hide behind to avoid doing a great deal.
Starmer had his ming vase strategy, desperate to make no mistakes and retain the lead he had been given. Either the polling was seriously wrong or he failed in this because the Labour vote was 6-7% below what the polls were telling us but he succeeded in his main object of a substantial majority.
Sunak was simply not being listened to. He had that silly National Service idea but basically he was largely ignored, despite some quite good economic news during the campaign. I find the chart surprising in that context, the strong impression that i had throughout was that people had made up their minds that the Tories were gonners.
Swinney did as well in elections as he usually does but the SNP faced a similar problem to the Tories. They have been in government too long to blame anyone else and people are tired of them.
I confess I really don't know anyone who votes Reform. The relative failure of their campaign compared to that of the Lib Dems shows they have a lot to learn about how to be effective in a FPTP system, something Farage has never mastered.
No doubt some were trying to decide whether to vote Libdem or Green.
Had Rishi tried to hang on until the autumn, there were lots of known-unknown but probably negatives.
We've seen a couple already. The prisons filling up. The pay reviews coming out expensive. I would add the likelihood that Rwanda worked less well in reality than in theory.
Plenty of people here have been pointing out the poo leaking from the various nappies for a while. Given that, and the gradual downward drift in Conservative ratings over the last couple of years, what was gained by going in July not May? And what was expected to be gained?
Labour are home and hosed, so you can vote Green (or someone else, or stay at home) without it risking us lot winning.
This, combined with the chunky vote for "Independents" in certain areas, helped depress the Labour vote share (and turnout), but appears to have had minimal effect in saving seats for the Tories.
Goodness only knows what chemicals you would be releasing into the atmosphere.
Appears that after one of said children presented in hospital with a head injury they decided that there was a risk it was deliberate and their backsides would not be covered the other children might be at risk, unless they were all taken into care (at vast cost to the taxpayer of course).
The parents are now on hunger strike and will do a Bobby Sands unless they are returned.
No, something must have happened to spook Rishi into going earlier than planned, because all logic pointed to an autumn or even winter campaign.
All it did though was increase Labours vote efficiency to ridiculous levels. Betting on Labours share of the vote would have been more rewarding which some did very well on.
In the past when cash was king people saw the pound in their pocket and didn't want to lose that, now that we are heading to rightly becoming a cashless society then support for the joining the Euro will surge.
In your banking app whether it shows 2,000 pounds in your account or 2,000 Euros will make no difference.
I propose putting Edward Heath on front of the first UK 10 Euro note.
And with that, I bid you adieu until this evening.
https://www.cdn-national-lottery.co.uk/maintenance.html
And in social services, you're damned if you do, and damned if you don't. (How were the signs missed???)
I'm not sure about TSE's conclusion either. If we blithely assume that Tory and Reform voters are not fungible, then Farage's entry only cost them what, 2 or 3 seats? That isn't true of course, with Conservative to Reform switchers leaving Labour/LD to come through the middle in some constituencies. But it would be wrong to add the Reform and Tory totals up and assign Farage all the blame.
https://x.com/JerryHicksUnite/status/1814543692218126785?t=JfM9jQ7Ema55HOl7P9BMZA&s=19
After David Lammys welcome statement yesterday it looks like they're moving in the right direction and this would show the sort of humility that I'm sure most Labour supporters would welcome
One of the targets is Chatham Dockyard.
I mean I know I hold a grudge like a Sicilian but targeting Chatham Dockyard because of something that happened in the eighteenth century is special.
https://x.com/Terror_Alarm/status/1813553263335309426
Mr. Eagles, your eagerness to throw away cash is matched only by your poor judgement regarding Hannibal and Caesar.
One of the children had an accident - publicly fell from a balcony/window. At the hospital all the other children denied knowledge of everything and it took a while to find the parents.
So social services took the view that it was an unsafe environment.
I'm hoping that's near enough for instant death, rather than the more horrid, lingering ones that people get further from the centre of a nuclear detonation.
Plus, cash carries germs, why do you think the real move to contactless and things like Apple pay accelerated during the pandemic.
Thats how bureaucracies and their precautionary principle works. Better to send them to a camp in Siberia for 20 years than risk them being dangerous traitors now that the KGB has found that there is a risk that they might be traitors after tapping their phone.
Cash is used by those who favour it, such as those who find it easier to keep within spending limits when the money isn't ephemeral. It's also handy when technology inevitably fails now and then. Plus, it's nice not having transactions tracked constantly.
Or is something interesting based at Sheerness/Chatham that isn't widely known about.
A bit unfortunate if someone nukes the isle of Sheppey though. Enough people there with six fingers without radiation mutations. Still it will give them a chance to rebuild the churches with all the seats on one side, which will help with local wedding logistics.
Set in Sheffield after a nuclear war, life will be a blast, obviously we Sheffielders are made of sterner stuff than you Leeds folk.
In this group it has elements of:
- Would vote Tory but the party just vanished from the Election, from normal Tory supporters.
- Well-off people (eg 2 business neighbours in £600-700k houses which are top 1-2% for here) not wanting Labour in because of what they think will happen to their taxes, plus a bit of 'but the scroungers'.
- Anti-immigration. As I see it Lab are also anti-immigration, so this may be swallowing the Farage Kool Aid.
- Personal note for Lee Anderson. This is an entire extended family, around a particular issue he is working on, and basically the entire street where the grandparents live.
And some so want to give in to the tantrums.
Shame on those who want to give in to them.
You would be decomposed into your component atoms, and this would happen in less time that the nervous system can react. Guaranteed no pain, or even awareness of what happened.
Why are N and V only two apart on my keyboard?
I blame Microsoft. Or Canada.
It's worth comparing the Labour campaigns of 2017 (not 2019!) with 2024. In both campaigns, the Conservatives messed up badly (social care in 2017, D day etc in 2024.) In both campaigns, Brexit wasn't an issue either (much as the Conservatives tried to make it one.) So the door was open to Labour in both campaigns.
Yet in 2017, during the campaign Labour's polling increased by 15% (from 26% to 41%) whereas in 2024 Labour's share fell by 10% (from about 45% to 35%).
The difference was that in 2017, Labour set out ambitious plans, together with a costed programme of how it was going to be paid for that was plausible enough to reassure rather than scare voters off. Now how plausible that funding programme was in reality was another thing of course, but the fact is that plenty of people were prepared to vote for it.
Apparently it started when social services attended a Roma family over a serious child welfare issue. They got aggressive, then the social workers called for police help, and then word spread amongst from that Roma family amongst their community on social media. And they came out in force.
They then attacked the police car that turned up to help protect the social workers, and take the child into care, and then the (unarmed) police were forced to withdraw.
I mean, I tend to get too distracted by France.
I hear Beaulieu Motor Museum, the Museum of Army Flying and Beamish are also on their list.
This Saturday's quiz has a question about the quote.
A silly question, I know.
And yet that utter piece of filth is in America, kowtowing to the madmen over there who might form the next administration, poisoning their minds with his false and crap views of what is going on over here.
B******* will be b******* irrespective of creed or colour.
For every vote Starmer lost to Hamas-backing independents, or Corbyn-backing Greens (often the same people to be fair), he's gained much more back.
Worth remembering that each vote he wins from an ex-Conservative (like myself) is worth two votes lost to the Greens/Hamas Independents.
(And I can be quoted on that
Everything else is secondary.
Also good to see some West Indian batsmen batting like test cricketers. The WI team is part of the iconography of cricket and it makes me sad to see them fail too often.
I visited to have a look at an article that sounds credible: Britain’s weirdest constituency - Nick Clegg's old seat throws up a litany of surprises
https://archive.ph/cLzMG
but it seems to have all kind of weird Trumpish things there, too. Example:
The 2024 political war is just beginning - The Democratic party has rigged the system
https://archive.ph/Abadz
Is it just a smorgasboard now?
I remember years ago when we had young kids being advised never to take them to hospital with an injury unless it was of a nature that meant there was no choice, as you would immediately be under suspicion and deemed guilty until proven innocent.
In their case the SS inquisition abruptly ended when the husband got home from work and introduced himself, while still wearing his police inspectors uniform.
What processes are there?
Is a judge involved?
What appeal opportunities are there for parents?
I ask all these questions, because "a story" is usually a dangerously limited set of information to work off.
I actually don’t look at it that often nowadays..
Explained surely by Lib Dems and Green supporters being more likely to be voting tactically so would wait till the last possible moment. Faragists after his resurrection had nowhere else they could possibly want to go.
I had no idea how certain people behaved, or even lived. From believing all children were always safer within the family, I no longer hold that view. Mind you some of the foster carers I met weren't qualified to look after small rodents let alone children.
Edit; do you not believe a Police Inspector capable of beating the **** out of his children?
right. For a while Unherd served as a good sort of centre-right counterpart, to the London Review of Books on the centre-left, but now it seems to be moving to the polarisation trend.
From the sub-culture known as Violent Shitheads.
https://homeforgood.org.uk/statistics
Yes of course there are processes, but unless you are very wealthy and can afford decent legal representation the processes are hopelessly stacked against you, not least as it is a civil not criminal law process so balance of probability with state agencies word carrying a presumption of correctness unless otherwise proven.
A conversation about Frederick Rutland, who was the first RAF combat pilot at sea at the Battle of Jutland. With what I think is new material about his later career as a Japanese spy. Interesting stuff about early seaplane carriers (ie put planes in the sea with a crane, before they had catapults or flight decks).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwbapYMutEc
(Just under an hour.)
Judea and Samarra
The best figure I could find was: “Between local authorities, Hill observed, the rate at which children are removed from their families ranges from 30 per 10,000 to 180 per 10,000.” That’s from an 8-year old Guardian article: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/nov/26/does-britain-take-too-many-children-into-care
A care order has to be issued by a court, so, yes, a judge is involved.
Yes, you can appeal a care order.
Isn't it far more common that the social services don't act? I find Mister Bedfordshire's take on this rather odd.
As for it being all ethnicities involved, well yeah. Doesn't tell us a huge amount on its own.
And done severe damage to my Betfair book.
Presumably you think all these people are from the Roma community:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DcP2x5VdaQQ