Biden arguing for air defences for Ukraine. Weak, weak, weak.
How about some F-16s and long range missiles that can hit back at where the Russians are launching from? Amidst all the ongoing conflicts the west seems to consistently be on the back foot. The only contrary example would be Israel bombing the heck out of Gaza whilst Hamas hide in tunnels. Why do we insist on fighting our enemies on their own terms?
The long range missiles are in place, but ATACMS is not allowed for other than very restricted use in Russia.
The really interesting one would be Tomahawks. But that won't happen.
BBC reporting Israels latest war crime - they've bombed a school housing displaced civilians and killed at least 29 people, including children.
Will SKS issue an immediate condemnation & call it a depraved act, like he did when Russia bombed a hospital yesterday?
Russia bombs a school. A depraved evil act of a terror state according to our media and mainstream politicians..
Israel does it. Nothing to see here guys.
Yup. And Netanyahu's useful idiots swallow every excuse he comes out with. The Israelis lie and lie - remember the attack on the UN convoy that they initially tried to blame on a Hamas "side bomb", for example - and, having expelled all foreign journalists, they usually get away with it.
According to Israel's own account, they were targeting a single individual. They don't at times appear to place a greatly different value on human life than do Hamas.
The Israeli military said it was reviewing reports that civilians were harmed. It said the incident occurred when it struck with “precise munition” a Hamas fighter who took part in the 7 October raid on Israel that precipitated the Israeli assault on Gaza...
It becomes easier to understand the Israel/Gaza situation when you remember:
1) Hamas don't care about dead Palestinians and like dead Israelis:
2) Israel gets really mad about dead Israelis and doesn't care about dead Palestinians:
3) Hamas' admirers in the West care about dead Palestinians, but even if not fully paid up anti- Semites a la Chris Williamson have a sneaking feeling dead Israelis have it coming because they were Israelis and therefore complicit in dead Palestinians.
4) So the Israelis ignore them.
And the result, always, is therefore more dead Palestinians.
Also: some countries in the region don't like Israel, but don't like the Palestinians either. And they despise Hamas.
BBC reporting Israels latest war crime - they've bombed a school housing displaced civilians and killed at least 29 people, including children.
Will SKS issue an immediate condemnation & call it a depraved act, like he did when Russia bombed a hospital yesterday?
Russia bombs a school. A depraved evil act of a terror state according to our media and mainstream politicians..
Israel does it. Nothing to see here guys.
Yup. And Netanyahu's useful idiots swallow every excuse he comes out with. The Israelis lie and lie - remember the attack on the UN convoy that they initially tried to blame on a Hamas "side bomb", for example - and, having expelled all foreign journalists, they usually get away with it.
According to Israel's own account, they were targeting a single individual. They don't at times appear to place a greatly different value on human life than do Hamas.
The Israeli military said it was reviewing reports that civilians were harmed. It said the incident occurred when it struck with “precise munition” a Hamas fighter who took part in the 7 October raid on Israel that precipitated the Israeli assault on Gaza...
If that individual was the target and he was Hamas then he's a perfectly legitimate target.
What else should Israel do?
That's totally different to both Hamas and Russia targeting innocents for the hell of it.
The rules of war require proportionality in so far as possible.
Absolutely, require proportionality but not a refusal to engage.
If this was the most proportional way to get a legitimate target, then it was a legitimate strike.
What Hamas did in 7 October, what Russia does regularly in Ukraine, the deliberate targeting of innocents, is a completely different matter.
Israel has a right to engage. It is unclear that anything Israel is doing in Gaza now is actually delivering useful military progress. The IDF have been complaining about the instructions coming down from the government. Netanyahu has had a short-term goal of making it to the parliamentary summer recess and he’s using ongoing war as a tool to do that and stay in power. Meanwhile, his extremist junior partners in government continue with irredentist claims and support ethnic cleansing.
What should Israel do? Not this. They should put Netanyahu in jail. (A large majority of Israelis want him gone.) They should stop annexing the West Bank a little bit at a time. They should obey international law.
Another day, another couple or so opinion pieces in NY Times imploring Biden to stand aside.
I suspect the reckoning in the Dem party when Trump beats Biden is going to be off the scale. Will make the post-GE Tory party in-fighting look like a vicarage card evening.
Those who have hidden the truth and lied and put their own self-interest before saving US democracy will face the wrath of all those now calling for him to stand aside.
"It really helps to start a couple of hundred years ago. If you go back before the industrial revolution .. if you go back before deep water navigation .... the United Kingdom or as it was known 'England' really did not matter all that much. It was a relatively smallish population on a relatively largish island off the coast of Europe and most of the mainland countries especially France had far larger populations and were far more significant.
But when deep water navigation was invented by the Iberians ..." and so it continues.
That's a history out of Peanuts, written by Charlie Brown, for Readers' Digest Simplified Version, for use in the Kindergarten.
But I see he's a "political writer".
I don't see why should we take this person even slightly seriously, if he makes so many basic errors on the most basic of basics. Sorry.
Indeed. The secret to our wealth was large flocks of sheep, for which the secret was the absence of wolves, for which the secret was being an island and hunting them all down by the later 1100s, for which the secret was the cash reward on offer for anyone who produced a dead one.
Being an island?
All dead by 1199?
If you're not talking about Wight, but about *North* Island, 1680 is more correct ...
My mistake was remembering 12th century when it should have been 1200s, but the drive to exterminate all wolves was a late 1200s thing and substantially successful in the lowland south. They only survived in any numbers in what are now the northern national parks, and can be considered close to extinction by the later 1400s, enabling large scale sheep farming on a scale that wasn't possible (or at least not so reliably profitable) on the continent.
Another day, another couple or so opinion pieces in NY Times imploring Biden to stand aside.
I suspect the reckoning in the Dem party when Trump beats Biden is going to be off the scale. Will make the post-GE Tory party in-fighting look like a vicarage card evening.
Those who have hidden the truth and lied and put their own self-interest before saving US democracy will face the wrath of all those now calling for him to stand aside.
Highly doubt Biden reads the NY Times these days, it's an out and out hit paper for him.
Another day, another couple or so opinion pieces in NY Times imploring Biden to stand aside.
I suspect the reckoning in the Dem party when Trump beats Biden is going to be off the scale. Will make the post-GE Tory party in-fighting look like a vicarage card evening.
Those who have hidden the truth and lied and put their own self-interest before saving US democracy will face the wrath of all those now calling for him to stand aside.
It won’t matter as if the Dems lose this then they will cease to exist under our new, and if I might say, welcome, Orange overlord and his cultural revolution which will remove the need for troublesome things such as political parties and elections.
You need to adjust them for wage inflation, not inflation generally.
Adjusted for wages houses are broadly flat (With a bit of up and down in the meantime) since 2004.
Or, to phrase it depressingly, they shot up 97-2004 and stayed too high ever since...
I only have the gov't wage series since 2000 ! It doesn't change the picture much from prices - prices might be a truer reflection due to increasing wage inequality in the UK.
BBC reporting Israels latest war crime - they've bombed a school housing displaced civilians and killed at least 29 people, including children.
Will SKS issue an immediate condemnation & call it a depraved act, like he did when Russia bombed a hospital yesterday?
Russia bombs a school. A depraved evil act of a terror state according to our media and mainstream politicians..
Israel does it. Nothing to see here guys.
Absolutely!
Russia is bombing civilians deliberately.
Israel is targeting Hamas.
Its not Israel's fault that Hamas uses human shields. Ukraine aren't doing that.
I see the Lancet has hypothesised that there may be as many as 180k dead Gazans. Bit of a dilemma for the IDF simps, should they go with ‘look how many dead women and kids Hamas are responsible for!’ or ‘the most moral army in the world has inadvertently killed much fewer than even the 40k that has been claimed, though we can’t tell you how many’.
Its Hamas's fault.
There being casualties isn't a reason not to wage war, its a reason not to wage unjust wars or commit war crimes.
Targeting Hamas is neither unjust, nor a war crime. Hamas using human shields and what they did on 7 October is both.
The over-caffeinated PB arbiter of the rules of war has spoken, prick up your ears ICJ.
The rules of war are as follows:
If you are a small or medium size nation observe them or else.
If you are a top 10 military power nation and in Western Europe observe them or else as your own countries lawyers and courts will spend the next 40 years crawling over every detail and complaint, vexatious or otherwise.
If you are a top 10 military power nation outside europe. Try not to get caught but it dosen't really matter unless you lose.
I was trying to tune the discussion out but AIUI "they'd have been fine if they'd been wearing cycle helmets"
BBC reporting Israels latest war crime - they've bombed a school housing displaced civilians and killed at least 29 people, including children.
Will SKS issue an immediate condemnation & call it a depraved act, like he did when Russia bombed a hospital yesterday?
Russia bombs a school. A depraved evil act of a terror state according to our media and mainstream politicians..
Israel does it. Nothing to see here guys.
Yup. And Netanyahu's useful idiots swallow every excuse he comes out with. The Israelis lie and lie - remember the attack on the UN convoy that they initially tried to blame on a Hamas "side bomb", for example - and, having expelled all foreign journalists, they usually get away with it.
According to Israel's own account, they were targeting a single individual. They don't at times appear to place a greatly different value on human life than do Hamas.
The Israeli military said it was reviewing reports that civilians were harmed. It said the incident occurred when it struck with “precise munition” a Hamas fighter who took part in the 7 October raid on Israel that precipitated the Israeli assault on Gaza...
If that individual was the target and he was Hamas then he's a perfectly legitimate target.
What else should Israel do?
That's totally different to both Hamas and Russia targeting innocents for the hell of it.
The rules of war require proportionality in so far as possible.
Absolutely, require proportionality but not a refusal to engage.
If this was the most proportional way to get a legitimate target, then it was a legitimate strike.
What Hamas did in 7 October, what Russia does regularly in Ukraine, the deliberate targeting of innocents, is a completely different matter.
Israel has a right to engage. It is unclear that anything Israel is doing in Gaza now is actually delivering useful military progress. The IDF have been complaining about the instructions coming down from the government. Netanyahu has had a short-term goal of making it to the parliamentary summer recess and he’s using ongoing war as a tool to do that and stay in power. Meanwhile, his extremist junior partners in government continue with irredentist claims and support ethnic cleansing.
What should Israel do? Not this. They should put Netanyahu in jail. (A large majority of Israelis want him gone.) They should stop annexing the West Bank a little bit at a time. They should obey international law.
IMO Israel are razing Gaza. The military goal is to destroy any potential of a Palestinian state.
'I’m bored, so I shoot’: The Israeli army’s approval of free-for-all violence in Gaza Israeli soldiers describe the near-total absence of firing regulations in the Gaza war, with troops shooting as they please, setting homes ablaze, and leaving corpses on the streets'
BBC reporting Israels latest war crime - they've bombed a school housing displaced civilians and killed at least 29 people, including children.
Will SKS issue an immediate condemnation & call it a depraved act, like he did when Russia bombed a hospital yesterday?
Russia bombs a school. A depraved evil act of a terror state according to our media and mainstream politicians..
Israel does it. Nothing to see here guys.
Absolutely!
Russia is bombing civilians deliberately.
Israel is targeting Hamas.
Its not Israel's fault that Hamas uses human shields. Ukraine aren't doing that.
I see the Lancet has hypothesised that there may be as many as 180k dead Gazans. Bit of a dilemma for the IDF simps, should they go with ‘look how many dead women and kids Hamas are responsible for!’ or ‘the most moral army in the world has inadvertently killed much fewer than even the 40k that has been claimed, though we can’t tell you how many’.
Do you have a linky to the Lancet thing? I haven't seen it myself, but someone on Twix (I know...) said it was a letter published in the Lancet, rather than a paper in the Lancet.
I had a call from our car’s security tracking centre in the middle of the night saying they had a theft alert. Looked outside and it was gone.
Called the police and got a CRN. Had a call back an hour later from Lewisham police saying they had a tracking fix on the car and would go and investigate.
Called the police contact number this morning. No record of any car being tracked or found. Finally spoke to the car pound who said the police had set off to find the car in the tracked location then got diverted elsewhere. Finally got round to looking this morning by which time it had gone. They won’t bother looking actively for it now.
The thieves will of course get off scot free.
Another load of paperwork to do.
Consumer advice request, which make?
By end of the year have to return my physically key operated lease vehicle for some keyless option and would prefer not to participate in the unofficial public car share experiment being undertaken by manufacturers
Another day, another couple or so opinion pieces in NY Times imploring Biden to stand aside.
I suspect the reckoning in the Dem party when Trump beats Biden is going to be off the scale. Will make the post-GE Tory party in-fighting look like a vicarage card evening.
Those who have hidden the truth and lied and put their own self-interest before saving US democracy will face the wrath of all those now calling for him to stand aside.
They are walking into disaster.
Received wisdom is they can’t possibly tolerate another 4 months of this. But they definitely seem to be conspiring to try.
BBC reporting Israels latest war crime - they've bombed a school housing displaced civilians and killed at least 29 people, including children.
Will SKS issue an immediate condemnation & call it a depraved act, like he did when Russia bombed a hospital yesterday?
Russia bombs a school. A depraved evil act of a terror state according to our media and mainstream politicians..
Israel does it. Nothing to see here guys.
Absolutely!
Russia is bombing civilians deliberately.
Israel is targeting Hamas.
Its not Israel's fault that Hamas uses human shields. Ukraine aren't doing that.
I see the Lancet has hypothesised that there may be as many as 180k dead Gazans. Bit of a dilemma for the IDF simps, should they go with ‘look how many dead women and kids Hamas are responsible for!’ or ‘the most moral army in the world has inadvertently killed much fewer than even the 40k that has been claimed, though we can’t tell you how many’.
Do you have a linky to the Lancet thing? I haven't seen it myself, but someone on Twix (I know...) said it was a letter published in the Lancet, rather than a paper in the Lancet.
Letters go through peer review too. A letter is just a short paper, in effect. But saying “the Lancet has hypothesised…” could mislead: the authors of a particular piece, that has been accepted by the Lancet, have hypothesised…
Zeihan's analysis seems pretty reasonable to me. Britain was of no great significance prior to 1700 but quickly became the world's premier maritime and industrial power before the Americans/Germans etc caught up in the mid 19th century. After the second world war we lost imperial preference.
London was ideal for a European financial capital after we went into the EEC but Zeihan's mistake is overstating the significance of this to the UK as a whole. As Mervyn King has said, joining the EEC didn't fundamentally alter the prospects of the UK economy and leaving it probably wouldn't either. (Not to say there wouldn't be damage).
He loses his way a bit in going on about NAFTA. We may be experiencing de-globalisation but I'd hazard a guess that we can maintain good trading relations with North America and the EU. Being outside the block means there's no guarantee of it I suppose. And his final statement that becoming a failing middle power is what Britons most fear, is pure bombast. No, what Britons most fear is the loss of the security and living standards that they are accustomed to.
Off topic: To me, the second most interesting thing about Kamala Harris is her religion: "Harris is a Baptist, holding membership of the Third Baptist Church of San Francisco, a congregation of the American Baptist Churches USA." (Links omitted.) source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris#Personal_life
I had a call from our car’s security tracking centre in the middle of the night saying they had a theft alert. Looked outside and it was gone.
Called the police and got a CRN. Had a call back an hour later from Lewisham police saying they had a tracking fix on the car and would go and investigate.
Called the police contact number this morning. No record of any car being tracked or found. Finally spoke to the car pound who said the police had set off to find the car in the tracked location then got diverted elsewhere. Finally got round to looking this morning by which time it had gone. They won’t bother looking actively for it now.
The thieves will of course get off scot free.
Another load of paperwork to do.
Consumer advice request, which make?
By end of the year have to return my physically key operated lease vehicle for some keyless option and would prefer not to participate in the unofficial public car share experiment being undertaken by manufacturers
Disable the keyless entry function and keep the key (and the spare!) in a Faraday pouch. A proper one not a cheap one of Amazon of dubious origin.
It'd be handy to open my car by walking up to it eg whilst carrying bags but I'm happy to trade that slightly gimmicky functionality.
And get a Disklok for the steering wheel and use it.
You could also add an extra immobiliser such as Ghost if you want the highest level of security possible.
Zeihan's analysis seems pretty reasonable to me. Britain was of no great significance prior to 1700 but quickly became the world's premier maritime and industrial power before the Americans/Germans etc caught up in the mid 19th century. After the second world war we lost imperial preference.
London was ideal for a European financial capital after we went into the EEC but Zeihan's mistake is overstating the significance of this to the UK as a whole. As Mervyn King has said, joining the EEC didn't fundamentally alter the prospects of the UK economy and leaving it probably wouldn't either. (Not to say there wouldn't be damage).
He loses his way a bit in going on about NAFTA. We may be experiencing de-globalisation but I'd hazard a guess that we can maintain good trading relations with North America and the EU. Being outside the block means there's no guarantee of it I suppose. And his final statement that becoming a failing middle power is what Britons most fear, is pure bombast. No, what Britons most fear is the loss of the security and living standards that they are accustomed to.
It went up and down somewhat, over the years.
At the time it first united in the 10th century England was one of the largest and wealthiest countries of Europe, hence why the Danes, Norwegians and Normans were so desperate to conquer it. In the mid-twelfth century it was the dominant force in European politics west of the Rhine. In the 14th century England could be considered one of the great powers of Europe along with Poland and Burgundy. By the 18th rather less so due to prolonged internal squabbling and the consolidation of France and Spain. Throughout that century the strengthening of its internal government coupled with colonial expansion underpinned by the slave trade saw it eclipse Spain and re-emerge as the main rival to France.
Trying to oversimplify such things isn’t a great start.
New Emerson poll has Biden doing best against Trump followed by former VP and 2000 Dem candidate Al Gore. Trump leads Biden 46% to 43% with 11% undecided.
I had a call from our car’s security tracking centre in the middle of the night saying they had a theft alert. Looked outside and it was gone.
Called the police and got a CRN. Had a call back an hour later from Lewisham police saying they had a tracking fix on the car and would go and investigate.
Called the police contact number this morning. No record of any car being tracked or found. Finally spoke to the car pound who said the police had set off to find the car in the tracked location then got diverted elsewhere. Finally got round to looking this morning by which time it had gone. They won’t bother looking actively for it now.
The thieves will of course get off scot free.
Another load of paperwork to do.
Consumer advice request, which make?
By end of the year have to return my physically key operated lease vehicle for some keyless option and would prefer not to participate in the unofficial public car share experiment being undertaken by manufacturers
Disable the keyless entry function and keep the key (and the spare!) in a Faraday pouch. A proper one not a cheap one of Amazon of dubious origin.
It'd be handy to open my car by walking up to it eg whilst carrying bags but I'm happy to trade that slightly gimmicky functionality.
And get a Disklok for the steering wheel and use it.
You could also add an extra immobiliser such as Ghost if you want the highest level of security possible.
The former is what I do. The pouch also helps when taking a spare car key on holiday, since you need a block to be able to lock the car with a key inside it. I got one off Amazon that looked reasonable, and it works fine. I had heard the cheaper ones tend not to continue working for so long, but it’s still going strong several years later.
Off topic: To me, the second most interesting thing about Kamala Harris is her religion: "Harris is a Baptist, holding membership of the Third Baptist Church of San Francisco, a congregation of the American Baptist Churches USA." (Links omitted.) source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris#Personal_life
Zeihan's analysis seems pretty reasonable to me. Britain was of no great significance prior to 1700 but quickly became the world's premier maritime and industrial power before the Americans/Germans etc caught up in the mid 19th century. After the second world war we lost imperial preference.
London was ideal for a European financial capital after we went into the EEC but Zeihan's mistake is overstating the significance of this to the UK as a whole. As Mervyn King has said, joining the EEC didn't fundamentally alter the prospects of the UK economy and leaving it probably wouldn't either. (Not to say there wouldn't be damage).
He loses his way a bit in going on about NAFTA. We may be experiencing de-globalisation but I'd hazard a guess that we can maintain good trading relations with North America and the EU. Being outside the block means there's no guarantee of it I suppose. And his final statement that becoming a failing middle power is what Britons most fear, is pure bombast. No, what Britons most fear is the loss of the security and living standards that they are accustomed to.
It went up and down somewhat, over the years.
At the time it first united in the 10th century England was one of the largest and wealthiest countries of Europe, hence why the Danes, Norwegians and Normans were so desperate to conquer it. In the mid-twelfth century it was the dominant force in European politics west of the Rhine. In the 14th century England could be considered one of the great powers of Europe along with Poland and Burgundy. By the 18th rather less so due to prolonged internal squabbling and the consolidation of France and Spain. Throughout that century the strengthening of its internal government coupled with colonial expansion underpinned by the slave trade saw it eclipse Spain and re-emerge as the main rival to France.
Trying to oversimplify such things isn’t a great start.
He’s an American yet appears to know where these places are, which makes him a true intellectual over there.
So, the claim that young people were flocking in their droves to Reform, as repeatedly touted on here by @Leon turns out to be complete and utter rubbish. Why should we be surprised?
That YouGov analysis is an interesting read, according to their analysis Voting Labour positively correlates with level of education and salary, not sure how that aligns with the PB subset
No that wasn't entirely true in 2024, certainly on salary level. This year it was the Tories and LDs who did best with upper middle class ABs relative to the rest of their voters and the LDs did better with middle class C1s than working class C2s and DEs. Labour did almost as well with DEs as ABs and better with DEs than lower middle class C1s.
"Those with a higher household income were more likely to vote Labour than those with a lower household income. A third (32-34%) of those income groups below £50,000 voted for Labour compared to four in ten (40%) of those in household income groups making £50,000 a year or more."
£50k-70k 40% Labour £70k+ 40% Labour
Basically in terms of poshness and wealt of their voters it now goes: Least Posh Reform, SNP, Green, Conservative, Labour, LD Most Posh
New Emerson poll has Biden doing best against Trump followed by former VP and 2000 Dem candidate Al Gore. Trump leads Biden 46% to 43% with 11% undecided.
New Emerson poll has Biden doing best against Trump followed by former VP and 2000 Dem candidate Al Gore. Trump leads Biden 46% to 43% with 11% undecided.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
New Emerson poll has Biden doing best against Trump followed by former VP and 2000 Dem candidate Al Gore. Trump leads Biden 46% to 43% with 11% undecided.
New Emerson poll has Biden doing best against Trump followed by former VP and 2000 Dem candidate Al Gore. Trump leads Biden 46% to 43% with 11% undecided.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
The reality is that Labour won by accepting the Johnsonian settlement with the UK outside the EU and single market. Have you accepted this yet or are you still in denial?
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
New Emerson poll has Biden doing best against Trump followed by former VP and 2000 Dem candidate Al Gore. Trump leads Biden 46% to 43% with 11% undecided.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
Denial is not surprising it's not been a week yet. The party needs to think about what it is about. And doing opposition is different to offering an alternative. There is no need to rush and try and get headlines because no one is really listening, and I'm sure even some who voted Tory are glad to see the back of them. I wouldnt be surprised if it takes a while for Conservatives to regain support, and for Labour to consolidate a bit of what it lost.
Off topic: To me, the second most interesting thing about Kamala Harris is her religion: "Harris is a Baptist, holding membership of the Third Baptist Church of San Francisco, a congregation of the American Baptist Churches USA." (Links omitted.) source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris#Personal_life
I haven’t seen any news stories on how often she attends.
Interesting Pastor Amos Brown, since 1976. Banned from his final school year in the 1950s because he publicly opposed segregation, and a personal knowledge of MLK, who recommended him for his Theological College.
The church is characterised as mainline evangelical, and he has spoken up in favour of gay rights as far back as 1991, and quite possibly earlier.
The church was initially the "First Coloured Baptist Church" in the area.
It helps illuminate why formal segregation / slavery issues can feel very contemporaneous in the USA.
One thing that was noticeable in our neck of the woods was the lack of manpower the Tories had. They had a Facebook page that was updated daily and had a team of about 10 - 12 going out and we were impressed and maybe a little worried. our teams were typically about 3 - 5. Then it dawned on us. This was it. There was nothing else. This team visited about 5 different areas every day. They had one person for a number of big villages (he was highlighted doing so each day). Whereas we had multiple teams everyday as well as dozens of deliverers out everyday. They turned up at the end of my road one day and were gone within an hour.
As well as all the time spent travelling from one place to another they also stopped 3 or 4 times in cafes and pubs and did reviews of them together with pictures on their Facebook page. On polling day they were dressed up for the count in a pub before the polls had closed again posted on their Facebook page. We were knocking up until 10 pm.
It was interesting that there were lots of comments about how hard they were working. I don't think any of them would last 5 minutes on a LD team.
I suspect that partly reflected the age of their members; campaigning is a tiring business, especially on polling day, and my old routine of getting up at 5am for the early morning delivery, continuing all day with spells of telling the only break, then going to the count and staying alert through to a 5am declaration, is something I coulnd't do nowadays. Doing nothing all day and staying up in an armchair for Truss is tiring enough.
It's also hard to be motivated when yout tide is going out. Most of the LibDems won by decent margins - in some cases massive margins (e.g. Chichester), and so there really weren't many places where a red hot campaign would have made any difference for the Tories.
Election day is one of those activities where the reward to effort ratio is incredibly low, yet you have to do it to avoid the feeling you'll have if years of campaigning effort misses on the day by 50.
Luckily I am quite fit for a 69 year old. I pulled a 30 hour stint on election day (obviously slightly more than a day). I should have been in bed a few hours earlier than that but the adrenaline was still pumping and I couldn't sleep. I slept for a few hours late Saturday morning and afternoon and felt like rubbish when I got up. Back to bed at 9pm Saturday night. Surrey Heath and Woking were partying Saturday night.
Everywhere I said Saturday I should have said Friday. You see I still haven't recovered.
New Emerson poll has Biden doing best against Trump followed by former VP and 2000 Dem candidate Al Gore. Trump leads Biden 46% to 43% with 11% undecided.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
Denial is not surprising it's not been a week yet. The party needs to think about what it is about. And doing opposition is different to offering an alternative. There is no need to rush and try and get headlines because no one is really listening, and I'm sure even some who voted Tory are glad to see the back of them. I wouldnt be surprised if it takes a while for Conservatives to regain support, and for Labour to consolidate a bit of what it lost.
Nothing wrong with an MP doing this, its what MPs do. Lets see if the government are able to stand up to it.
My guess is that the Greens, Lib Dems, Reform and Conservatives will be trying to out NIMBY each other. Every Labour MP with a small majority will be phoning Number 10.
BBC reporting Israels latest war crime - they've bombed a school housing displaced civilians and killed at least 29 people, including children.
Will SKS issue an immediate condemnation & call it a depraved act, like he did when Russia bombed a hospital yesterday?
Russia bombs a school. A depraved evil act of a terror state according to our media and mainstream politicians..
Israel does it. Nothing to see here guys.
Yup. And Netanyahu's useful idiots swallow every excuse he comes out with. The Israelis lie and lie - remember the attack on the UN convoy that they initially tried to blame on a Hamas "side bomb", for example - and, having expelled all foreign journalists, they usually get away with it.
According to Israel's own account, they were targeting a single individual. They don't at times appear to place a greatly different value on human life than do Hamas.
The Israeli military said it was reviewing reports that civilians were harmed. It said the incident occurred when it struck with “precise munition” a Hamas fighter who took part in the 7 October raid on Israel that precipitated the Israeli assault on Gaza...
If that individual was the target and he was Hamas then he's a perfectly legitimate target.
What else should Israel do?
That's totally different to both Hamas and Russia targeting innocents for the hell of it.
The rules of war require proportionality in so far as possible.
Absolutely, require proportionality but not a refusal to engage.
If this was the most proportional way to get a legitimate target, then it was a legitimate strike.
What Hamas did in 7 October, what Russia does regularly in Ukraine, the deliberate targeting of innocents, is a completely different matter.
Israel has a right to engage. It is unclear that anything Israel is doing in Gaza now is actually delivering useful military progress. The IDF have been complaining about the instructions coming down from the government. Netanyahu has had a short-term goal of making it to the parliamentary summer recess and he’s using ongoing war as a tool to do that and stay in power. Meanwhile, his extremist junior partners in government continue with irredentist claims and support ethnic cleansing.
What should Israel do? Not this. They should put Netanyahu in jail. (A large majority of Israelis want him gone.) They should stop annexing the West Bank a little bit at a time. They should obey international law.
IMO Israel are razing Gaza. The military goal is to destroy any potential of a Palestinian state.
'I’m bored, so I shoot’: The Israeli army’s approval of free-for-all violence in Gaza Israeli soldiers describe the near-total absence of firing regulations in the Gaza war, with troops shooting as they please, setting homes ablaze, and leaving corpses on the streets'
The potential of Gaza state was aborted at birth when the people of Gaza in free and fair elections voted for Hamas to govern them.
I had a call from our car’s security tracking centre in the middle of the night saying they had a theft alert. Looked outside and it was gone.
Called the police and got a CRN. Had a call back an hour later from Lewisham police saying they had a tracking fix on the car and would go and investigate.
Called the police contact number this morning. No record of any car being tracked or found. Finally spoke to the car pound who said the police had set off to find the car in the tracked location then got diverted elsewhere. Finally got round to looking this morning by which time it had gone. They won’t bother looking actively for it now.
The thieves will of course get off scot free.
Another load of paperwork to do.
Consumer advice request, which make?
By end of the year have to return my physically key operated lease vehicle for some keyless option and would prefer not to participate in the unofficial public car share experiment being undertaken by manufacturers
Disable the keyless entry function and keep the key (and the spare!) in a Faraday pouch. A proper one not a cheap one of Amazon of dubious origin.
It'd be handy to open my car by walking up to it eg whilst carrying bags but I'm happy to trade that slightly gimmicky functionality.
And get a Disklok for the steering wheel and use it.
You could also add an extra immobiliser such as Ghost if you want the highest level of security possible.
The former is what I do. The pouch also helps when taking a spare car key on holiday, since you need a block to be able to lock the car with a key inside it. I got one off Amazon that looked reasonable, and it works fine. I had heard the cheaper ones tend not to continue working for so long, but it’s still going strong several years later.
I had the faraday pouch and disabled keyless entry already after the last theft, but not the disklok so that’ll be the next step.
The car was the regularly stolen Land Rover Disco Sport. Im determined next time up get something nobody would want to bother nicking, but that depends on marital consensus being achieved. An old Volvo estate of Skoda superb would be ideal.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
Denial is not surprising it's not been a week yet. The party needs to think about what it is about. And doing opposition is different to offering an alternative. There is no need to rush and try and get headlines because no one is really listening, and I'm sure even some who voted Tory are glad to see the back of them. I wouldnt be surprised if it takes a while for Conservatives to regain support, and for Labour to consolidate a bit of what it lost.
Nothing wrong with an MP doing this, its what MPs do. Lets see if the government are able to stand up to it.
My guess is that the Greens, Lib Dems, Reform and Conservatives will be trying to out NIMBY each other. Every Labour MP with a small majority will be phoning Number 10.
Wait until the "supplementary planning documents" start coming out of councils when obliged to reassess land previously rejected for housing development to be suitable. Those councils that dont bother to put the documents together will be told that in the absence of a policy the assumption will be that the site is suitable by the very virtue of an application being submitted.
It's not quite like that now, but a local authority that doesnt have enough suitable land available for housing will often/always lose appeals when their councillor committees reject a planning application.
You've not met any group so incensed and angry as a bunch of residents losing the view at the back of their house.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
The reality is that Labour won by accepting the Johnsonian settlement with the UK outside the EU and single market. Have you accepted this yet or are you still in denial?
They could just announce tomorrow they are re-entering the Single Market/joining EFTA. It would be yesterday's news by middle of next week. Should never have left it.
Another day, another couple or so opinion pieces in NY Times imploring Biden to stand aside.
I suspect the reckoning in the Dem party when Trump beats Biden is going to be off the scale. Will make the post-GE Tory party in-fighting look like a vicarage card evening.
Those who have hidden the truth and lied and put their own self-interest before saving US democracy will face the wrath of all those now calling for him to stand aside.
The mainstream media, and the NYT in particular, has been engaging in bad faith political journalism for so long - starting with Hillary's emails, and Comey's October surprise - that the majority of Democrats are inoculated against anything it might have to say on the matter, whether justified or not.
I don't think it guaranteed either that Biden is the candidate in November, or if he is, that he loses. But the odds have definitely shifted in the wrong direction in the last couple of weeks.
Nor am I persuaded that anyone is 'hiding the truth'. They're just in denial.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
The reality is that Labour won by accepting the Johnsonian settlement with the UK outside the EU and single market. Have you accepted this yet or are you still in denial?
They could just announce tomorrow they are re-entering the Single Market/joining EFTA. It would be yesterday's news by middle of next week. Should never have left it.
No they couldn't because it would require a major renegotiation with the EU. The institutional apparatus to manage it doesn't exist.
BBC reporting Israels latest war crime - they've bombed a school housing displaced civilians and killed at least 29 people, including children.
Will SKS issue an immediate condemnation & call it a depraved act, like he did when Russia bombed a hospital yesterday?
Russia bombs a school. A depraved evil act of a terror state according to our media and mainstream politicians..
Israel does it. Nothing to see here guys.
Yup. And Netanyahu's useful idiots swallow every excuse he comes out with. The Israelis lie and lie - remember the attack on the UN convoy that they initially tried to blame on a Hamas "side bomb", for example - and, having expelled all foreign journalists, they usually get away with it.
According to Israel's own account, they were targeting a single individual. They don't at times appear to place a greatly different value on human life than do Hamas.
The Israeli military said it was reviewing reports that civilians were harmed. It said the incident occurred when it struck with “precise munition” a Hamas fighter who took part in the 7 October raid on Israel that precipitated the Israeli assault on Gaza...
If that individual was the target and he was Hamas then he's a perfectly legitimate target.
What else should Israel do?
That's totally different to both Hamas and Russia targeting innocents for the hell of it.
The rules of war require proportionality in so far as possible.
Absolutely, require proportionality but not a refusal to engage.
If this was the most proportional way to get a legitimate target, then it was a legitimate strike.
What Hamas did in 7 October, what Russia does regularly in Ukraine, the deliberate targeting of innocents, is a completely different matter.
Israel has a right to engage. It is unclear that anything Israel is doing in Gaza now is actually delivering useful military progress. The IDF have been complaining about the instructions coming down from the government. Netanyahu has had a short-term goal of making it to the parliamentary summer recess and he’s using ongoing war as a tool to do that and stay in power. Meanwhile, his extremist junior partners in government continue with irredentist claims and support ethnic cleansing.
What should Israel do? Not this. They should put Netanyahu in jail. (A large majority of Israelis want him gone.) They should stop annexing the West Bank a little bit at a time. They should obey international law.
IMO Israel are razing Gaza. The military goal is to destroy any potential of a Palestinian state.
'I’m bored, so I shoot’: The Israeli army’s approval of free-for-all violence in Gaza Israeli soldiers describe the near-total absence of firing regulations in the Gaza war, with troops shooting as they please, setting homes ablaze, and leaving corpses on the streets'
The potential of Gaza state was aborted at birth when the people of Gaza in free and fair elections voted for Hamas to govern them.
More likely when Rabin was assassinated or Sharon elected.
I had a call from our car’s security tracking centre in the middle of the night saying they had a theft alert. Looked outside and it was gone.
Called the police and got a CRN. Had a call back an hour later from Lewisham police saying they had a tracking fix on the car and would go and investigate.
Called the police contact number this morning. No record of any car being tracked or found. Finally spoke to the car pound who said the police had set off to find the car in the tracked location then got diverted elsewhere. Finally got round to looking this morning by which time it had gone. They won’t bother looking actively for it now.
The thieves will of course get off scot free.
Another load of paperwork to do.
Consumer advice request, which make?
By end of the year have to return my physically key operated lease vehicle for some keyless option and would prefer not to participate in the unofficial public car share experiment being undertaken by manufacturers
Disable the keyless entry function and keep the key (and the spare!) in a Faraday pouch. A proper one not a cheap one of Amazon of dubious origin.
It'd be handy to open my car by walking up to it eg whilst carrying bags but I'm happy to trade that slightly gimmicky functionality.
And get a Disklok for the steering wheel and use it.
You could also add an extra immobiliser such as Ghost if you want the highest level of security possible.
The former is what I do. The pouch also helps when taking a spare car key on holiday, since you need a block to be able to lock the car with a key inside it. I got one off Amazon that looked reasonable, and it works fine. I had heard the cheaper ones tend not to continue working for so long, but it’s still going strong several years later.
I had the faraday pouch and disabled keyless entry already after the last theft, but not the disklok so that’ll be the next step.
The car was the regularly stolen Land Rover Disco Sport. Im determined next time up get something nobody would want to bother nicking, but that depends on marital consensus being achieved. An old Volvo estate of Skoda superb would be ideal.
My 2018 Skoda Superb has a feature where if you stroke the lock with your finger within 5 seconds of pressing the "lock" button on the key, it requires the key to be physically present close by rather than respond to a proximity signal.
I assume that it is a standard VAG thing.
It is called "Disable KESSY". KESSY is I think the proximity autodetect bit, amongst several other things. KESSY: "(Keyless Entry Start Exit System)"
Presumably most motors have this now - except Landrover?
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
If they do, they will learn some surprising things. For example: 'You may not want to hear this, but when the history of twentieth century poliitics is written, George Bush will indeed be ranked as "the environmental president".
These things happened under Bush:the 1990 Clean Air Act, the strongest air-pollution legislation in the world; international agreements to abolish CFCs; the end of ocean disposal of sludge; , , , '
Easterbrook's list of Bush's achievements continues for a third of a page more. Incidentally, Bush brought in "cap-and-trade" laws that helped clean up the air in cities faster and more cheaply than regulations would have.
I haven't seen any formal estimates, but it seems certain that Bush's policies saved thousands of lives.
(By the way, you can see the clean-air progress in the US in many old TV programs, for example, Adam 12.)
Another day, another couple or so opinion pieces in NY Times imploring Biden to stand aside.
I suspect the reckoning in the Dem party when Trump beats Biden is going to be off the scale. Will make the post-GE Tory party in-fighting look like a vicarage card evening.
Those who have hidden the truth and lied and put their own self-interest before saving US democracy will face the wrath of all those now calling for him to stand aside.
The mainstream media, and the NYT in particular, has been engaging in bad faith political journalism for so long - starting with Hillary's emails, and Comey's October surprise - that the majority of Democrats are inoculated against anything it might have to say on the matter, whether justified or not.
I don't think it guaranteed either that Biden is the candidate in November, or if he is, that he loses. But the odds have definitely shifted in the wrong direction in the last couple of weeks.
Nor am I persuaded that anyone is 'hiding the truth'. They're just in denial.
I think the sudden about turn of the liberal media in the USA is as much about looking in the mirror at their own failure to call out Biden's flaws during his presidency as it is anything to do with Biden. It's the sharpest about turn on any event narrative since the Ukranian corruption pre and post Russian invasion.
So, the claim that young people were flocking in their droves to Reform, as repeatedly touted on here by @Leon turns out to be complete and utter rubbish. Why should we be surprised?
That YouGov analysis is an interesting read, according to their analysis Voting Labour positively correlates with level of education and salary, not sure how that aligns with the PB subset
No that wasn't entirely true in 2024, certainly on salary level. This year it was the Tories and LDs who did best with upper middle class ABs relative to the rest of their voters and the LDs did better with middle class C1s than working class C2s and DEs. Labour did almost as well with DEs as ABs and better with DEs than lower middle class C1s.
"Those with a higher household income were more likely to vote Labour than those with a lower household income. A third (32-34%) of those income groups below £50,000 voted for Labour compared to four in ten (40%) of those in household income groups making £50,000 a year or more."
£50k-70k 40% Labour £70k+ 40% Labour
Basically in terms of poshness and wealt of their voters it now goes: Least Posh Reform, SNP, Green, Conservative, Labour, LD Most Posh
Which is the mystery of our Leon’s self-claimed super IQ. Despite his purported super-intelligence, it seems very peculiar that after thinking everything through and analysing all the relevant considerations in depth (lol), almost every policy position he has arrived at is the same as those supported by the least educated part of our electorate.
If they do, they will learn some surprising things. For example: 'You may not want to hear this, but when the history of twentieth century poliitics is written, George Bush will indeed be ranked as "the environmental president".
These things happened under Bush:the 1990 Clean Air Act, the strongest air-pollution legislation in the world; international agreements to abolish CFCs; the end of ocean disposal of sludge; , , , '
Easterbrook's list of Bush's achievements continues for a third of a page more. Incidentally, Bush brought in "cap-and-trade" laws that helped clean up the air in cities faster and more cheaply than regulations would have.
I haven't seen any formal estimates, but it seems certain that Bush's policies saved thousands of lives.
(By the way, you can see the clean-air progress in the US in many old TV programs, for example, Adam 12.)
Biden's policy has ... maybe ... been a further step forward in US addressing their environmental problems, but it has also been highly manipulative.
For example, their index date is set as 2005 (everybody else uses 1990), which is the peak of USA emissions, and their emissions per head are 2 or 3 times European numbers.
He also boasts about how he is the President who highly boosted oil output.
In short, they remain imo about 2 or 3 decades behind Europe, on most measures.
Open to any corrections, as I have not re-read the data for a few months.
Another day, another couple or so opinion pieces in NY Times imploring Biden to stand aside.
I suspect the reckoning in the Dem party when Trump beats Biden is going to be off the scale. Will make the post-GE Tory party in-fighting look like a vicarage card evening.
Those who have hidden the truth and lied and put their own self-interest before saving US democracy will face the wrath of all those now calling for him to stand aside.
The mainstream media, and the NYT in particular, has been engaging in bad faith political journalism for so long - starting with Hillary's emails, and Comey's October surprise - that the majority of Democrats are inoculated against anything it might have to say on the matter, whether justified or not.
I don't think it guaranteed either that Biden is the candidate in November, or if he is, that he loses. But the odds have definitely shifted in the wrong direction in the last couple of weeks.
Nor am I persuaded that anyone is 'hiding the truth'. They're just in denial.
I think the sudden about turn of the liberal media in the USA is as much about looking in the mirror at their own failure to call out Biden's flaws during his presidency as it is anything to do with Biden. It's the sharpest about turn on any event narrative since the Ukranian corruption pre and post Russian invasion.
And they're only doing it because Biden is 3% behind in the most reliable polling averages. If he was still 1% ahead they'd probably still be backing him.
One thing that was noticeable in our neck of the woods was the lack of manpower the Tories had. They had a Facebook page that was updated daily and had a team of about 10 - 12 going out and we were impressed and maybe a little worried. our teams were typically about 3 - 5. Then it dawned on us. This was it. There was nothing else. This team visited about 5 different areas every day. They had one person for a number of big villages (he was highlighted doing so each day). Whereas we had multiple teams everyday as well as dozens of deliverers out everyday. They turned up at the end of my road one day and were gone within an hour.
As well as all the time spent travelling from one place to another they also stopped 3 or 4 times in cafes and pubs and did reviews of them together with pictures on their Facebook page. On polling day they were dressed up for the count in a pub before the polls had closed again posted on their Facebook page. We were knocking up until 10 pm.
It was interesting that there were lots of comments about how hard they were working. I don't think any of them would last 5 minutes on a LD team.
I suspect that partly reflected the age of their members; campaigning is a tiring business, especially on polling day, and my old routine of getting up at 5am for the early morning delivery, continuing all day with spells of telling the only break, then going to the count and staying alert through to a 5am declaration, is something I coulnd't do nowadays. Doing nothing all day and staying up in an armchair for Truss is tiring enough.
It's also hard to be motivated when yout tide is going out. Most of the LibDems won by decent margins - in some cases massive margins (e.g. Chichester), and so there really weren't many places where a red hot campaign would have made any difference for the Tories.
Election day is one of those activities where the reward to effort ratio is incredibly low, yet you have to do it to avoid the feeling you'll have if years of campaigning effort misses on the day by 50.
Luckily I am quite fit for a 69 year old. I pulled a 30 hour stint on election day (obviously slightly more than a day). I should have been in bed a few hours earlier than that but the adrenaline was still pumping and I couldn't sleep. I slept for a few hours late Saturday morning and afternoon and felt like rubbish when I got up. Back to bed at 9pm Saturday night. Surrey Heath and Woking were partying Saturday night.
Everywhere I said Saturday I should have said Friday. You see I still haven't recovered.
Probably, I could have done the same, had I skin in the game. Sadly, as a LibDem I find myself trapped into having voted Green three times running now, in a seat where my preferred party stands no chance.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
So, the claim that young people were flocking in their droves to Reform, as repeatedly touted on here by @Leon turns out to be complete and utter rubbish. Why should we be surprised?
That YouGov analysis is an interesting read, according to their analysis Voting Labour positively correlates with level of education and salary, not sure how that aligns with the PB subset
No that wasn't entirely true in 2024, certainly on salary level. This year it was the Tories and LDs who did best with upper middle class ABs relative to the rest of their voters and the LDs did better with middle class C1s than working class C2s and DEs. Labour did almost as well with DEs as ABs and better with DEs than lower middle class C1s.
"Those with a higher household income were more likely to vote Labour than those with a lower household income. A third (32-34%) of those income groups below £50,000 voted for Labour compared to four in ten (40%) of those in household income groups making £50,000 a year or more."
£50k-70k 40% Labour £70k+ 40% Labour
Basically in terms of poshness and wealt of their voters it now goes: Least Posh Reform, SNP, Green, Conservative, Labour, LD Most Posh
Which is the mystery of our Leon’s self-claimed super IQ. Despite his purported super-intelligence, it seems very peculiar that after thinking everything through and analysing all the relevant considerations in depth (lol), almost every policy position he has arrived at is the same as those supported by the least educated part of our electorate.
What's the mystery? Vivid imagination is associated with High IQ, surely?
So, the claim that young people were flocking in their droves to Reform, as repeatedly touted on here by @Leon turns out to be complete and utter rubbish. Why should we be surprised?
That YouGov analysis is an interesting read, according to their analysis Voting Labour positively correlates with level of education and salary, not sure how that aligns with the PB subset
No that wasn't entirely true in 2024, certainly on salary level. This year it was the Tories and LDs who did best with upper middle class ABs relative to the rest of their voters and the LDs did better with middle class C1s than working class C2s and DEs. Labour did almost as well with DEs as ABs and better with DEs than lower middle class C1s.
"Those with a higher household income were more likely to vote Labour than those with a lower household income. A third (32-34%) of those income groups below £50,000 voted for Labour compared to four in ten (40%) of those in household income groups making £50,000 a year or more."
£50k-70k 40% Labour £70k+ 40% Labour
Basically in terms of poshness and wealt of their voters it now goes: Least Posh Reform, SNP, Green, Conservative, Labour, LD Most Posh
Which is the mystery of our Leon’s self-claimed super IQ. Despite his purported super-intelligence, it seems very peculiar that after thinking everything through and analysing all the relevant considerations in depth (lol), almost every policy position he has arrived at is the same as those supported by the least educated part of our electorate.
You're committing several logical fallacies there. Truth isn't determined by opinion polling and wisdom isn't determined by social rank.
BBC reporting Israels latest war crime - they've bombed a school housing displaced civilians and killed at least 29 people, including children.
Will SKS issue an immediate condemnation & call it a depraved act, like he did when Russia bombed a hospital yesterday?
Russia bombs a school. A depraved evil act of a terror state according to our media and mainstream politicians..
Israel does it. Nothing to see here guys.
Yup. And Netanyahu's useful idiots swallow every excuse he comes out with. The Israelis lie and lie - remember the attack on the UN convoy that they initially tried to blame on a Hamas "side bomb", for example - and, having expelled all foreign journalists, they usually get away with it.
According to Israel's own account, they were targeting a single individual. They don't at times appear to place a greatly different value on human life than do Hamas.
The Israeli military said it was reviewing reports that civilians were harmed. It said the incident occurred when it struck with “precise munition” a Hamas fighter who took part in the 7 October raid on Israel that precipitated the Israeli assault on Gaza...
If that individual was the target and he was Hamas then he's a perfectly legitimate target.
What else should Israel do?
That's totally different to both Hamas and Russia targeting innocents for the hell of it.
The rules of war require proportionality in so far as possible.
Absolutely, require proportionality but not a refusal to engage.
If this was the most proportional way to get a legitimate target, then it was a legitimate strike.
What Hamas did in 7 October, what Russia does regularly in Ukraine, the deliberate targeting of innocents, is a completely different matter.
Israel has a right to engage. It is unclear that anything Israel is doing in Gaza now is actually delivering useful military progress. The IDF have been complaining about the instructions coming down from the government. Netanyahu has had a short-term goal of making it to the parliamentary summer recess and he’s using ongoing war as a tool to do that and stay in power. Meanwhile, his extremist junior partners in government continue with irredentist claims and support ethnic cleansing.
What should Israel do? Not this. They should put Netanyahu in jail. (A large majority of Israelis want him gone.) They should stop annexing the West Bank a little bit at a time. They should obey international law.
IMO Israel are razing Gaza. The military goal is to destroy any potential of a Palestinian state.
'I’m bored, so I shoot’: The Israeli army’s approval of free-for-all violence in Gaza Israeli soldiers describe the near-total absence of firing regulations in the Gaza war, with troops shooting as they please, setting homes ablaze, and leaving corpses on the streets'
The potential of Gaza state was aborted at birth when the people of Gaza in free and fair elections voted for Hamas to govern them.
More likely when Rabin was assassinated or Sharon elected.
Sharon did a great job at trying to move towards a sustainable peace, withdrawing from the Gaza Strip and building the wall to great success to defuse violence from the West Bank.
Unfortunately, just like the peace offers of Barak, Clinton and others, this was rebuffed by the Palestinians who prefer violence over peace. Which may not be all Palestinians but is unfortunately their leaders from Arafat through to Hamas.
There is no reason other than Hamas why there's violence in Gaza, Israel had withdrawn from Gaza and was encouraging it to be developed until Hamas took over and the blockade became necessary.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
The reality is that Labour won by accepting the Johnsonian settlement with the UK outside the EU and single market. Have you accepted this yet or are you still in denial?
Blair accepted Tory spending plans (foolishly IMHO, given the size of his eventual win) only to progress to spending way more, in his second term.
I suspect Starmer and the EU will pan out the same. He’d do better to get on with it now; whether Starmer’s first term follows Blair’s timidity or learns from it and steps out more boldly, we all wait to see.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
Are you using a liberal philosopher writing for the left wing new statesman to beat the right for bad self-analysis and not understanding things?
You are saying that like it's a bad thing
More seriously: John Gray is left-wing now? He's more a a historian than a politician. I'm sure some of his points (when you comb out the epic cruft) are right-wing or left-wing, but I don't think he fits in the partisan spectrum and is least convincing when dealing with partisan points.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
Denial is not surprising it's not been a week yet. The party needs to think about what it is about. And doing opposition is different to offering an alternative. There is no need to rush and try and get headlines because no one is really listening, and I'm sure even some who voted Tory are glad to see the back of them. I wouldnt be surprised if it takes a while for Conservatives to regain support, and for Labour to consolidate a bit of what it lost.
Nothing wrong with an MP doing this, its what MPs do. Lets see if the government are able to stand up to it.
My guess is that the Greens, Lib Dems, Reform and Conservatives will be trying to out NIMBY each other. Every Labour MP with a small majority will be phoning Number 10.
Wait until the "supplementary planning documents" start coming out of councils when obliged to reassess land previously rejected for housing development to be suitable. Those councils that dont bother to put the documents together will be told that in the absence of a policy the assumption will be that the site is suitable by the very virtue of an application being submitted.
It's not quite like that now, but a local authority that doesnt have enough suitable land available for housing will often/always lose appeals when their councillor committees reject a planning application.
You've not met any group so incensed and angry as a bunch of residents losing the view at the back of their house.
And the irony is that the 1948 planning act is one of the crowning achievements of Attlee’s majority government after the war. He’s well buried, but the soil around his grave may be about to get a fresh churning.
Reform got 4 million votes and 5 seats. Next time they'll probably get a lot more than 4 million votes. Who knows how many seats they'll win.
More likely to get a lot fewer but why will they get a lot more?
Even in an election where the Conservatives where more unpopular than ever before, and Labour weren't popular either, they barely scraped more votes than UKIP 2015.
The idea they're going to surge from here is completely unsubstantiated.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
Denial is not surprising it's not been a week yet. The party needs to think about what it is about. And doing opposition is different to offering an alternative. There is no need to rush and try and get headlines because no one is really listening, and I'm sure even some who voted Tory are glad to see the back of them. I wouldnt be surprised if it takes a while for Conservatives to regain support, and for Labour to consolidate a bit of what it lost.
Nothing wrong with an MP doing this, its what MPs do. Lets see if the government are able to stand up to it.
My guess is that the Greens, Lib Dems, Reform and Conservatives will be trying to out NIMBY each other. Every Labour MP with a small majority will be phoning Number 10.
Wait until the "supplementary planning documents" start coming out of councils when obliged to reassess land previously rejected for housing development to be suitable. Those councils that dont bother to put the documents together will be told that in the absence of a policy the assumption will be that the site is suitable by the very virtue of an application being submitted.
It's not quite like that now, but a local authority that doesnt have enough suitable land available for housing will often/always lose appeals when their councillor committees reject a planning application.
You've not met any group so incensed and angry as a bunch of residents losing the view at the back of their house.
And the irony is that the 1948 planning act is one of the crowning achievements of Attlee’s majority government after the war. He’s well buried, but the soil around his grave may be about to get a fresh churning.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
The reality is that Labour won by accepting the Johnsonian settlement with the UK outside the EU and single market. Have you accepted this yet or are you still in denial?
The "Johnsonian settlement" is a rather euphemistic term for what he left behind.
Conrad Black and John Prescott have lost their seats in the House of Lords due to non-attendance.
Also Lord Willoughby de Broke, one of the hereditary peers so another byelection looms.
Probably a niche view, but I personally think it should be very hard to lose one’s Lords seat. It seems at odds with the whole point of a non-elected chamber which is allowed to take the long view.
For the same reason, I don’t much like the idea of retiring at 80. But both measures are preferable to an elected house, which would be a recipe for utter gridlock.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
The reality is that Labour won by accepting the Johnsonian settlement with the UK outside the EU and single market. Have you accepted this yet or are you still in denial?
The "Johnsonian settlement" is a rather euphemistic term for what he left behind.
Johnsonian shit-smear seems more accurate. While I don’t see us rejoining the EU any time soon, next to nothing is likely to survive of the Johnson era.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
The reality is that Labour won by accepting the Johnsonian settlement with the UK outside the EU and single market. Have you accepted this yet or are you still in denial?
The "Johnsonian settlement" is a rather euphemistic term for what he left behind.
Johnsonian shit-smear seems more accurate. While I don’t see us rejoining the EU any time soon, next to nothing is likely to survive of the Johnson era.
In the sense that next to nothing survived of the Heath era, except one overriding constitutional change.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
Are you using a liberal philosopher writing for the left wing new statesman to beat the right for bad self-analysis and not understanding things?
You are saying that like it's a bad thing
More seriously: John Gray is left-wing now? He's more a a historian than a politician. I'm sure some of his points (when you comb out the epic cruft) are right-wing or left-wing, but I don't think he fits in the partisan spectrum and is least convincing when dealing with partisan points.
I just thought it was a weird choice of writer and publication to use to demonstrate “right wing commentary on the GE is denial”.
Tim Montgomery writing in the Telegraph or Dan Hannan in the Speccie fine but was a weird choice to make the argument. I’m sure however that a lot of the right will get their analysis and solutions wrong.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
The reality is that Labour won by accepting the Johnsonian settlement with the UK outside the EU and single market. Have you accepted this yet or are you still in denial?
The "Johnsonian settlement" is a rather euphemistic term for what he left behind.
Johnsonian shit-smear seems more accurate. While I don’t see us rejoining the EU any time soon, next to nothing is likely to survive of the Johnson era.
In the sense that next to nothing survived of the Heath era, except one overriding constitutional change.
I’m no expert, but I’d want to add the “reform” of local government.
So, the claim that young people were flocking in their droves to Reform, as repeatedly touted on here by @Leon turns out to be complete and utter rubbish. Why should we be surprised?
That YouGov analysis is an interesting read, according to their analysis Voting Labour positively correlates with level of education and salary, not sure how that aligns with the PB subset
No that wasn't entirely true in 2024, certainly on salary level. This year it was the Tories and LDs who did best with upper middle class ABs relative to the rest of their voters and the LDs did better with middle class C1s than working class C2s and DEs. Labour did almost as well with DEs as ABs and better with DEs than lower middle class C1s.
"Those with a higher household income were more likely to vote Labour than those with a lower household income. A third (32-34%) of those income groups below £50,000 voted for Labour compared to four in ten (40%) of those in household income groups making £50,000 a year or more."
£50k-70k 40% Labour £70k+ 40% Labour
Basically in terms of poshness and wealt of their voters it now goes: Least Posh Reform, SNP, Green, Conservative, Labour, LD Most Posh
Which is the mystery of our Leon’s self-claimed super IQ. Despite his purported super-intelligence, it seems very peculiar that after thinking everything through and analysing all the relevant considerations in depth (lol), almost every policy position he has arrived at is the same as those supported by the least educated part of our electorate.
You're committing several logical fallacies there. Truth isn't determined by opinion polling and wisdom isn't determined by social rank.
Yougov have statistics by educational attainment as well as social ranking, though I'd agree educational attainment and IQ (or wisdom) are not necessarily correlated. In the Yougov stats both voting Conservative and Reform negatively correlate with educational attainment... Strongly!!
So, the claim that young people were flocking in their droves to Reform, as repeatedly touted on here by @Leon turns out to be complete and utter rubbish. Why should we be surprised?
That YouGov analysis is an interesting read, according to their analysis Voting Labour positively correlates with level of education and salary, not sure how that aligns with the PB subset
No that wasn't entirely true in 2024, certainly on salary level. This year it was the Tories and LDs who did best with upper middle class ABs relative to the rest of their voters and the LDs did better with middle class C1s than working class C2s and DEs. Labour did almost as well with DEs as ABs and better with DEs than lower middle class C1s.
"Those with a higher household income were more likely to vote Labour than those with a lower household income. A third (32-34%) of those income groups below £50,000 voted for Labour compared to four in ten (40%) of those in household income groups making £50,000 a year or more."
£50k-70k 40% Labour £70k+ 40% Labour
Basically in terms of poshness and wealt of their voters it now goes: Least Posh Reform, SNP, Green, Conservative, Labour, LD Most Posh
Which is the mystery of our Leon’s self-claimed super IQ. Despite his purported super-intelligence, it seems very peculiar that after thinking everything through and analysing all the relevant considerations in depth (lol), almost every policy position he has arrived at is the same as those supported by the least educated part of our electorate.
You're committing several logical fallacies there. Truth isn't determined by opinion polling and wisdom isn't determined by social rank.
Yougov have statistics by educational attainment as well as social ranking, though I'd agree educational attainment and IQ (or wisdom) are not necessarily correlated. In the Yougov stats both voting Conservative and Reform negatively correlate with educational attainment... Strongly!!
The more educated you are, the more readily you can rationalise the irrational.
The reality is that Labour won by accepting the Johnsonian settlement with the UK outside the EU and single market. Have you accepted this yet or are you still in denial?
Eight years after the referendum and four years after leaving the EU, we are still talking about it...
Reform got 4 million votes and 5 seats. Next time they'll probably get a lot more than 4 million votes. Who knows how many seats they'll win.
More likely to get a lot fewer but why will they get a lot more?
Even in an election where the Conservatives where more unpopular than ever before, and Labour weren't popular either, they barely scraped more votes than UKIP 2015.
The idea they're going to surge from here is completely unsubstantiated.
I propose two fairly reasonable assumptions.
1. The Labour government will become unpopular, because the circumstances for governing are difficult.
2. The Conservative and Unionist Party look likely to remain a shambles, and so are unlikely to benefit from the unpopularity of the government.
This leaves the Liberal Democrats, Reform, Greens, assorted Nationalists, or some other party as the possible beneficiaries of Labour unpopularity. It's certainly possible that it could be Reform. The BBC won't be shy about promoting them.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
Are you using a liberal philosopher writing for the left wing new statesman to beat the right for bad self-analysis and not understanding things?
You are saying that like it's a bad thing
More seriously: John Gray is left-wing now? He's more a a historian than a politician. I'm sure some of his points (when you comb out the epic cruft) are right-wing or left-wing, but I don't think he fits in the partisan spectrum and is least convincing when dealing with partisan points.
I just thought it was a weird choice of writer and publication to use to demonstrate “right wing commentary on the GE is denial”.
Tim Montgomery writing in the Telegraph or Dan Hannan in the Speccie fine but was a weird choice to make the argument. I’m sure however that a lot of the right will get their analysis and solutions wrong.
So, the claim that young people were flocking in their droves to Reform, as repeatedly touted on here by @Leon turns out to be complete and utter rubbish. Why should we be surprised?
That YouGov analysis is an interesting read, according to their analysis Voting Labour positively correlates with level of education and salary, not sure how that aligns with the PB subset
No that wasn't entirely true in 2024, certainly on salary level. This year it was the Tories and LDs who did best with upper middle class ABs relative to the rest of their voters and the LDs did better with middle class C1s than working class C2s and DEs. Labour did almost as well with DEs as ABs and better with DEs than lower middle class C1s.
"Those with a higher household income were more likely to vote Labour than those with a lower household income. A third (32-34%) of those income groups below £50,000 voted for Labour compared to four in ten (40%) of those in household income groups making £50,000 a year or more."
£50k-70k 40% Labour £70k+ 40% Labour
Basically in terms of poshness and wealt of their voters it now goes: Least Posh Reform, SNP, Green, Conservative, Labour, LD Most Posh
Which is the mystery of our Leon’s self-claimed super IQ. Despite his purported super-intelligence, it seems very peculiar that after thinking everything through and analysing all the relevant considerations in depth (lol), almost every policy position he has arrived at is the same as those supported by the least educated part of our electorate.
You're committing several logical fallacies there. Truth isn't determined by opinion polling and wisdom isn't determined by social rank.
Yougov have statistics by educational attainment as well as social ranking, though I'd agree educational attainment and IQ (or wisdom) are not necessarily correlated. In the Yougov stats both voting Conservative and Reform negatively correlate with educational attainment... Strongly!!
The more educated you are, the more readily you can rationalise the irrational.
I'm sure there's an Orwell quote about some ideas are so ridiculous that only intelligent people can think them workable. I guess the collectivisation of agriculture was one of them
The reality is that Labour won by accepting the Johnsonian settlement with the UK outside the EU and single market. Have you accepted this yet or are you still in denial?
Eight years after the referendum and four years after leaving the EU, we are still talking about it...
And???
Farage talked about it non-stop for 30 years but none of the Leavers are apologising for it.
Remainers / Bregretters are owed at least another 22 years!
Reform got 4 million votes and 5 seats. Next time they'll probably get a lot more than 4 million votes. Who knows how many seats they'll win.
More likely to get a lot fewer but why will they get a lot more?
Even in an election where the Conservatives where more unpopular than ever before, and Labour weren't popular either, they barely scraped more votes than UKIP 2015.
The idea they're going to surge from here is completely unsubstantiated.
I propose two fairly reasonable assumptions.
1. The Labour government will become unpopular, because the circumstances for governing are difficult.
2. The Conservative and Unionist Party look likely to remain a shambles, and so are unlikely to benefit from the unpopularity of the government.
This leaves the Liberal Democrats, Reform, Greens, assorted Nationalists, or some other party as the possible beneficiaries of Labour unpopularity. It's certainly possible that it could be Reform. The BBC won't be shy about promoting them.
I think the opposite.
1. The Labour government will have a honeymoon and be able to blame its predecessor for tough decisions.
2. The Tories are likely to remain a shambles in the immediate future but will eventually sort themselves out, so this is probably roughly their nadir.
I suspect the next election will be a bit of a boring non-event, like 2001 relative to 1997. When Labour do become unpopular, it will eventually be the Tories not Reform who ultimately benefit.
New Emerson poll has Biden doing best against Trump followed by former VP and 2000 Dem candidate Al Gore. Trump leads Biden 46% to 43% with 11% undecided.
The question is whether an alternative candidate could potentially change the polling. Newsom and particularly Whitmer are more unknown quantities.
From that link......
A series of prominent Democrats were tested in a head-to-head ballot against Donald Trump:
Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided
That's not what I mean. Could they change the polling once they were candidates/in the debates.
Yes, maybe, who knows. Thus polling only shows Trump's support fairly constant between 46 and 49 which doesn't exactly suggest there is a sensible majority longing for a candidate who isn't shit
Conrad Black and John Prescott have lost their seats in the House of Lords due to non-attendance.
Also Lord Willoughby de Broke, one of the hereditary peers so another byelection looms.
Probably a niche view, but I personally think it should be very hard to lose one’s Lords seat. It seems at odds with the whole point of a non-elected chamber which is allowed to take the long view.
For the same reason, I don’t much like the idea of retiring at 80. But both measures are preferable to an elected house, which would be a recipe for utter gridlock.
I've always thought an elected upper house on pure PR from the votes cast in a GE would be a good option.
Well, until about a week ago I did. I've now realised I was completely, tragically, hopelessly wrong.
One thing that strikes me.about right wing commentary on the GE is denial. They are fundamentally unable to come to terms with what has happened. Look at John Gray's pathetic bit in the New Statesman, where he takes to alchemy to explain away the loss. Between demographic headwinds (a large section of very old voters), and the time scale of rebranding the right, reform con power struggles and developing a growth layer of new political talent means the right will be out for at least 2 terms. Farage will never win PM (the vast majority reject him).... not ever... and I don't see anybody with sufficient talent and charisma to step up reality is reality. The right cannot move forward till it comes to terms with it.
Denial is not surprising it's not been a week yet. The party needs to think about what it is about. And doing opposition is different to offering an alternative. There is no need to rush and try and get headlines because no one is really listening, and I'm sure even some who voted Tory are glad to see the back of them. I wouldnt be surprised if it takes a while for Conservatives to regain support, and for Labour to consolidate a bit of what it lost.
Nothing wrong with an MP doing this, its what MPs do. Lets see if the government are able to stand up to it.
My guess is that the Greens, Lib Dems, Reform and Conservatives will be trying to out NIMBY each other. Every Labour MP with a small majority will be phoning Number 10.
Wait until the "supplementary planning documents" start coming out of councils when obliged to reassess land previously rejected for housing development to be suitable. Those councils that dont bother to put the documents together will be told that in the absence of a policy the assumption will be that the site is suitable by the very virtue of an application being submitted.
It's not quite like that now, but a local authority that doesnt have enough suitable land available for housing will often/always lose appeals when their councillor committees reject a planning application.
You've not met any group so incensed and angry as a bunch of residents losing the view at the back of their house.
And the irony is that the 1948 planning act is one of the crowning achievements of Attlee’s majority government after the war. He’s well buried, but the soil around his grave may be about to get a fresh churning.
"Achievements"
Its one of the biggest unmitigated disasters.
Almost every beautiful building in Britain was created before the 1948 planning act and every monstrosity built after..
If Labour starts heading off to the left after campaigning and winner on a center/center left platform, it will increase their chance of being a one term government with the landslide melting away like snow in June at election 2029, IMO.
Comments
https://nitter.poast.org/createstreets
Enjoy
The really interesting one would be Tomahawks. But that won't happen.
What should Israel do? Not this. They should put Netanyahu in jail. (A large majority of Israelis want him gone.) They should stop annexing the West Bank a little bit at a time. They should obey international law.
I suspect the reckoning in the Dem party when Trump beats Biden is going to be off the scale. Will make the post-GE Tory party in-fighting look like a vicarage card evening.
Those who have hidden the truth and lied and put their own self-interest before saving US democracy will face the wrath of all those now calling for him to stand aside.
Unfortunately the damage hasn't been fixed since.
Under Cameron/Osborne the ratio started moving in the right direction, very slowly, but that was then reversed.
https://www.972mag.com/israeli-soldiers-gaza-firing-regulations/
'I’m bored, so I shoot’: The Israeli army’s approval of free-for-all violence in Gaza
Israeli soldiers describe the near-total absence of firing regulations in the Gaza war, with troops shooting as they please, setting homes ablaze, and leaving corpses on the streets'
Edit: from the Jewish Chronicle (yes, I know...)
https://www.thejc.com/news/israel/did-the-lancet-really-estimate-the-gaza-death-toll-at-186-000-tp50gw2f
In which case, the figures are finger-waving b/s only believed by Scottish simps...
By end of the year have to return my physically key operated lease vehicle for some keyless option and would prefer not to participate in the unofficial public car share experiment being undertaken by manufacturers
Received wisdom is they can’t possibly tolerate another 4 months of this. But they definitely seem to be conspiring to try.
London was ideal for a European financial capital after we went into the EEC but Zeihan's mistake is overstating the significance of this to the UK as a whole. As Mervyn King has said, joining the EEC didn't fundamentally alter the prospects of the UK economy and leaving it probably wouldn't either. (Not to say there wouldn't be damage).
He loses his way a bit in going on about NAFTA. We may be experiencing de-globalisation but I'd hazard a guess that we can maintain good trading relations with North America and the EU. Being outside the block means there's no guarantee of it I suppose. And his final statement that becoming a failing middle power is what Britons most fear, is pure bombast. No, what Britons most fear is the loss of the security and living standards that they are accustomed to.
"Harris is a Baptist, holding membership of the Third Baptist Church of San Francisco, a congregation of the American Baptist Churches USA."
(Links omitted.)
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris#Personal_life
It’s a famous church. https://www.thirdbaptist.org/about
I haven’t seen any news stories on how often she attends.
It'd be handy to open my car by walking up to it eg whilst carrying bags but I'm happy to trade that slightly gimmicky functionality.
And get a Disklok for the steering wheel and use it.
You could also add an extra immobiliser such as Ghost if you want the highest level of security possible.
At the time it first united in the 10th century England was one of the largest and wealthiest countries of Europe, hence why the Danes, Norwegians and Normans were so desperate to conquer it. In the mid-twelfth century it was the dominant force in European politics west of the Rhine. In the 14th century England could be considered one of the great powers of Europe along with Poland and Burgundy. By the 18th rather less so due to prolonged internal squabbling and the consolidation of France and Spain. Throughout that century the strengthening of its internal government coupled with colonial expansion underpinned by the slave trade saw it eclipse Spain and re-emerge as the main rival to France.
Trying to oversimplify such things isn’t a great start.
Elizabeth Warren, Whitmer and Buttigieg do worst against the GOP nominee
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
We await Lake and Palmer's findings.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2024/07/tory-centre-will-not-hold-john-gray
A series of prominent Democrats were tested in a head-to-head ballot against Donald Trump:
Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided
Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided
California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided
Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided
Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided
Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided
I wouldnt be surprised if it takes a while for Conservatives to regain support, and for Labour to consolidate a bit of what it lost.
But their belief they can take on the nimbys with ease, an interesting Telegraph article:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/09/labour-relaxes-homes-planning-rules-housing-minister-nimby/
Nothing wrong with an MP doing this, its what MPs do. Lets see if the government are able to stand up to it.
The church is characterised as mainline evangelical, and he has spoken up in favour of gay rights as far back as 1991, and quite possibly earlier.
The church was initially the "First Coloured Baptist Church" in the area.
It helps illuminate why formal segregation / slavery issues can feel very contemporaneous in the USA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amos_Brown
The car was the regularly stolen Land Rover Disco Sport. Im determined next time up get something nobody would want to bother nicking, but that depends on marital consensus being achieved. An old Volvo estate of Skoda superb would be ideal.
It's not quite like that now, but a local authority that doesnt have enough suitable land available for housing will often/always lose appeals when their councillor committees reject a planning application.
You've not met any group so incensed and angry as a bunch of residents losing the view at the back of their house.
I don't think it guaranteed either that Biden is the candidate in November, or if he is, that he loses. But the odds have definitely shifted in the wrong direction in the last couple of weeks.
Nor am I persuaded that anyone is 'hiding the truth'. They're just in denial.
I assume that it is a standard VAG thing.
It is called "Disable KESSY". KESSY is I think the proximity autodetect bit, amongst several other things. KESSY: "(Keyless Entry Start Exit System)"
Presumably most motors have this now - except Landrover?
https://www.amazon.com/Moment-Earth-Coming-Environmental-Optimism/dp/0140154515
If they do, they will learn some surprising things. For example: 'You may not want to hear this, but when the history of twentieth century poliitics is written, George Bush will indeed be ranked as "the environmental president".
These things happened under Bush:the 1990 Clean Air Act, the strongest air-pollution legislation in the world; international agreements to abolish CFCs; the end of ocean disposal of sludge; , , , '
Easterbrook's list of Bush's achievements continues for a third of a page more. Incidentally, Bush brought in "cap-and-trade" laws that helped clean up the air in cities faster and more cheaply than regulations would have.
I haven't seen any formal estimates, but it seems certain that Bush's policies saved thousands of lives.
(By the way, you can see the clean-air progress in the US in many old TV programs, for example, Adam 12.)
It's the sharpest about turn on any event narrative since the Ukranian corruption pre and post Russian invasion.
@IanDunt
Badenoch will be an absolute disaster for the Tories, so I've no doubt the membership will go for her."
https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1810950800698482978
For example, their index date is set as 2005 (everybody else uses 1990), which is the peak of USA emissions, and their emissions per head are 2 or 3 times European numbers.
He also boasts about how he is the President who highly boosted oil output.
In short, they remain imo about 2 or 3 decades behind Europe, on most measures.
Open to any corrections, as I have not re-read the data for a few months.
Assuming the whole thing hasn’t folded meantime, which is rather more likely.
Unfortunately, just like the peace offers of Barak, Clinton and others, this was rebuffed by the Palestinians who prefer violence over peace. Which may not be all Palestinians but is unfortunately their leaders from Arafat through to Hamas.
There is no reason other than Hamas why there's violence in Gaza, Israel had withdrawn from Gaza and was encouraging it to be developed until Hamas took over and the blockade became necessary.
I suspect Starmer and the EU will pan out the same. He’d do better to get on with it now; whether Starmer’s first term follows Blair’s timidity or learns from it and steps out more boldly, we all wait to see.
More seriously: John Gray is left-wing now? He's more a a historian than a politician. I'm sure some of his points (when you comb out the epic cruft) are right-wing or left-wing, but I don't think he fits in the partisan spectrum and is least convincing when dealing with partisan points.
Even in an election where the Conservatives where more unpopular than ever before, and Labour weren't popular either, they barely scraped more votes than UKIP 2015.
The idea they're going to surge from here is completely unsubstantiated.
Its one of the biggest unmitigated disasters.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/28/keir-starmer-labour-britain-conservative-party
https://www.davidedgerton.org/
https://guardianbookshop.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-british-nation-9780141975979
For the same reason, I don’t much like the idea of retiring at 80. But both measures are preferable to an elected house, which would be a recipe for utter gridlock.
While I don’t see us rejoining the EU any time soon, next to nothing is likely to survive of the Johnson era.
Tim Montgomery writing in the Telegraph or Dan Hannan in the Speccie fine but was a weird choice to make the argument. I’m sure however that a lot of the right will get their analysis and solutions wrong.
In the Yougov stats both voting Conservative and Reform negatively correlate with educational attainment...
Strongly!!
1. The Labour government will become unpopular, because the circumstances for governing are difficult.
2. The Conservative and Unionist Party look likely to remain a shambles, and so are unlikely to benefit from the unpopularity of the government.
This leaves the Liberal Democrats, Reform, Greens, assorted Nationalists, or some other party as the possible beneficiaries of Labour unpopularity. It's certainly possible that it could be Reform. The BBC won't be shy about promoting them.
Less wasteful administration.
Or we could reduce the hereditaries by one every time one is .. in Salvation Army Language .. promoted to glory.
I guess the collectivisation of agriculture was one of them
Farage talked about it non-stop for 30 years but none of the Leavers are apologising for it.
Remainers / Bregretters are owed at least another 22 years!
1. The Labour government will have a honeymoon and be able to blame its predecessor for tough decisions.
2. The Tories are likely to remain a shambles in the immediate future but will eventually sort themselves out, so this is probably roughly their nadir.
I suspect the next election will be a bit of a boring non-event, like 2001 relative to 1997. When Labour do become unpopular, it will eventually be the Tories not Reform who ultimately benefit.
Well, until about a week ago I did. I've now realised I was completely, tragically, hopelessly wrong.
If Labour starts heading off to the left after campaigning and winner on a center/center left platform, it will increase their chance of being a one term government with the landslide melting away like snow in June at election 2029, IMO.
Could be wrong of course...