Under first past the post there is no point whatsoever in putting any effort at all into seats where you are not in contention and are never likely to be in contention.
The reason, as I keep banging on here, that the "system" seems to work so well for LAB is that the party gets this - as do the Lib Dems.
What mattered for both the reds an yellows was how well they did in what will be the GE2015 battlegrounds. By aggregating the vote LAB had notional gains in 20+ margnals. The LDs were holding, notionally, on almost all of the Westminster seats that they would be defending against the Tories.
The crappest performance of th night was by the Tories in Eastleigh. 17.9% vote share behind Ukip on 35.3% and the LDs on 37.3%.
The seat was always at the top of the blue target lists and they failed abysmally.
Mike
I hope you do a post on this because what this actually means is that Eastleigh will become the most tactical anti lib dem seat in the UK with Tories voting UKIP to kick out the lib Dems. Their fox has been shot
Ignore my previous comments on Stafford. I mixed its table with Stone! Which kinda says I have to improve my geography if I put Moorlands wards into Stafford without raising any eyebrows
Just think - only a year ago, we were all laughing at the lamentable performance of UKIP in the London mayoral and assembly elections. Admittedly they shot themselves in the foot with the bizarre 'Fresh Choice for London' branding, but that was part of the reason for the derision.
Punters would be wise to reflect on the dangers of over-reaction - in either direction.
They would also be wise not to bet against tim on this matter!
Imagine you had several packs of self assembly furniture and you had to assemble them.
You didn't know what they were and you had no instructions.
You'd struggle to begin with and probably have several false starts but if you kept at it you would end up assembling something.
It might not be the right thing and it might not be structurally sound. It would be sneered at by more sophisticated people but it would be something which some other people would like and find useful.
That's what UKIP is.
They've found themselves a demographic - the provincial private sector wwc.
That's not enough for them to win major elections but it is enough for them to get some MPs elected and overall controll on some district councils.
And more importantly its enough for them to break up the political system both structurally and policy wise.
The current Ribble Valley seat is rather different to the 1991 version because it now includes a significant urban section around Bamber Bridge to the south of Preston, which is why Labour were able to take second place in 2010.
The shape of the seat is a bit strange now as well in the south west part of the constituency:
"If it's okay to be proud to be Scottish, Welsh or Irish, it should also be okay to be proud to be English. But for some reason a lot of people have a problem with that notion."
I would hope it's more than just "okay" to be proud of being any of those nationalities.
Alan -
"For a bloke who finds ethnic nationalism repugnant, you've got a pretty big downer on the Irish."
Please stop lying about me, Alan, there's a good chap.
'I hope you do a post on this because what this actually means is that Eastleigh will become the most tactical anti lib dem seat in the UK with Tories voting UKIP to kick out the lib Dems. Their fox has been shot'
Followed by Portsmouth South with Farage as the candidate?
Slightly OT, but I think it would be interesting to note for some of those advocating Ken Clarke being fired because then at least his words (such as on UKIP) will not be taken that seriously on the backbenches, to take a close look at prominence given to remarks by people like David Davis and Lord Tebbit in the past few days.
Not saying if you think Clarke's a problem he should not be fired, but let's not selectively pretend prominent ex-ministers are not taken seriously or given national prominence when they speak.
"Under first past the post there is no point whatsoever in putting any effort at all into seats where you are not in contention and are never likely to be in contention."
There is for an insurgent party like Ukip because the headline poll figure drags people back who'd given up voting.
The Cameroons won't stand for your antiquated nonsense, Seth.
Brokeback... to flatpack
DAVID Cameron and Nick Clegg have secretly built a cabinet together inside No10 — an IKEA baby cupboard.
The pair, whose blossoming friendship once saw them dubbed “the Brokeback Coalition”, put together the flatpack furniture for Mr Cameron’s new daughter Florence.
In an exclusive interview on the eve of the Lib Dem conference, Deputy PM Mr Clegg told how he helped out two weeks ago in the Camerons’ refurbished Downing Street flat.
IF there is a BE in Ribble Valley I think Farridge will be hard pressed not to be a candidate )(Imagine the heckles...). Unless there is one in Portsmouth South on the same day/timeframe.
The Cameroons won't stand for your anitquated nonsense, Seth.
Brokeback... to flatpack
DAVID Cameron and Nick Clegg have secretly built a cabinet together inside No10 — an IKEA baby cupboard.
The pair, whose blossoming friendship once saw them dubbed “the Brokeback Coalition”, put together the flatpack furniture for Mr Cameron’s new daughter Florence.
In an exclusive interview on the eve of the Lib Dem conference, Deputy PM Mr Clegg told how he helped out two weeks ago in the Camerons’ refurbished Downing Street flat.
"Under first past the post there is no point whatsoever in putting any effort at all into seats where you are not in contention and are never likely to be in contention."
The obvious rebuttal is that if you never put in effort, of course you're never bloody likely to be in contention!
There is no way, none, that the admitted fact that piling in resources into areas where you are weak is not sensible when resources are limited, in any way makes it somehow ok for a party to be utterly obliterated in large swathes of areas, because it's not like they were going to win, you know, so having any voters in that area at all is clearly a complete waste, so why not just effing celebrate that there is no hope of one day increasing support there?
In fact, let's just tell people considering voting one way which has no hope of winning a seat, to stop doing it, you fools, they'll never win there so stop being pathetic. Move to an area which matches your politics, silly voter.
Difficult to bring extra shame on a seat represented by David Waddington, looks like Evans may be having a go.
No charges yet, tim.
The key question appears to me how rape can be committed over a period of time (Brunt a little confused over this but it appeared to be a period of years)?
Are we talking two incidents or a series of incidents with two victims.
The Lib Dems' problems are far more existential than some will admit, on here.
Their status as third party is being usurped, their status as protest party has evaporated, they face wipe-out in Scotland and the north, their activist base is ageing, their membership is disappearing, their income is declining, their europhilia is incredibly unfashionable, they are newly and actively hated, they are tainted by government, and so on, and so forth.
It's about as bad as it could be, which is why the Lib Dems came SEVENTH in a by-election - the worst performance ever, and were reduced to FOURTH in the locals, their worst performance ever.
They will probably not disappear completely. They will always offer a home to anguished middle class lefties, and europhiles, who find Labour too crass and the Greens too maniacal. But how many people is this? 5-10% of the populace, at most?
My guess is that we will look back and see the Cleggasm as a final flickering of the liberal flame, a brief and deceptive fightback against a long term, inevitable and melancholy decline.
Come off it, all parties have ups and downs. The LDs have just finished 20 years of unbroken gains. A couple of years of downs is not the end of the world.
The LDs had a substantial chunk of ex-labour who switched to the LDs for reasons that are logical for them (if not from the outside) but who actually fit much better with the space Ukip is sitting on at the moment. They just needed Ukip to be big enough to switch.
On top of that there's the anti-war bloc which is not as easy to get now Labour isn't in government any more - plus Galloway of course.
Comments
Ribble Valley District is covered by 4 County Divisions
In 3 UKIP didn't stand
In 1 they polled 23% to Tory 54%
Going over South Ribble District...
Bamber Bridges and Walton le Dale division: Lab 40 Con 39 UKIP 20
South Ribble Rural East Con 43 Lab 20 UKIP 18
Farington: Con 38 Lab 37 UKIP 19
The 10th ward is within a division with 2 wards not part of the constituency. FWIW the division total was Lab 41 Con 35 UKIP 20
Ignore my previous comments on Stafford. I mixed its table with Stone! Which kinda says I have to improve my geography if I put Moorlands wards into Stafford without raising any eyebrows
Your heart will always belong to daddy I guess.
http://tinyurl.com/co8o2eb
Which then turned into lib dem 32.1% and UKIP 27.8% at the by-election.
Food for thought.
And in packs.
How quaint.
The shape of the seat is a bit strange now as well in the south west part of the constituency:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ribble_Valley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
In 1992 Labour polled 6.5% compared to 35.3% in GB.
In 2010 they polled 22.0% compared to 29.7% in GB.
None are suitable for broadcast.
"If it's okay to be proud to be Scottish, Welsh or Irish, it should also be okay to be proud to be English. But for some reason a lot of people have a problem with that notion."
I would hope it's more than just "okay" to be proud of being any of those nationalities.
Alan -
"For a bloke who finds ethnic nationalism repugnant, you've got a pretty big downer on the Irish."
Please stop lying about me, Alan, there's a good chap.
'I hope you do a post on this because what this actually means is that Eastleigh will become the most tactical anti lib dem seat in the UK with Tories voting UKIP to kick out the lib Dems.
Their fox has been shot'
Followed by Portsmouth South with Farage as the candidate?
Not saying if you think Clarke's a problem he should not be fired, but let's not selectively pretend prominent ex-ministers are not taken seriously or given national prominence when they speak.
There is for an insurgent party like Ukip because the headline poll figure drags people back who'd given up voting.
UKIP won the seat as expected:
Shalford:
UKIP: 1,411 (51%)
LD: 1,023 (37%)
Lab: 347 (12%)
Salmond's genuine and straight-faced claim to have been a better boy soprano than Aled Jones reminded me of this story ;
" Kim Jong shoots a 38 under par, complete with 11 holes-in-one, his first time golfing. "
Version 1:
My tailor's name is Hyde
....
With the zip on the other side
Version 2:
I put a sixpence on the floor
...
I was hiding behind the door
Perhaps PBers can help me with the lines I've forgotten.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22414334
The country has gone to the dogs, Pork.
This is not what I voted for.
Lancashire Police swooped on Mr Evans’ cottage....
The obvious rebuttal is that if you never put in effort, of course you're never bloody likely to be in contention!
There is no way, none, that the admitted fact that piling in resources into areas where you are weak is not sensible when resources are limited, in any way makes it somehow ok for a party to be utterly obliterated in large swathes of areas, because it's not like they were going to win, you know, so having any voters in that area at all is clearly a complete waste, so why not just effing celebrate that there is no hope of one day increasing support there?
In fact, let's just tell people considering voting one way which has no hope of winning a seat, to stop doing it, you fools, they'll never win there so stop being pathetic. Move to an area which matches your politics, silly voter.
The key question appears to me how rape can be committed over a period of time (Brunt a little confused over this but it appeared to be a period of years)?
Are we talking two incidents or a series of incidents with two victims.
Odd.
That the mirror newsdesk managed to shove that in among the mad scamble to get it out is quite something.
On top of that there's the anti-war bloc which is not as easy to get now Labour isn't in government any more - plus Galloway of course.
So they're in a pickle.