UKIP won 23% in Dorset, 29% per candidate, with one elected.
Hastings is a very troubled town. The Constituency boundaries take in some very posh parts of the surrounding countryside. The Conservatives are only competitive because of their support in places like Rye and Winchilsea and surrounding villages.
only Hastings saw Labour wins and frankly its been a dumping ground for DSS/asylum seekers/drug addicts for the last 15yrs or more that its not very surprising.
OT: "And what of UKIP? This has been an extremely successful week; one of their best ever up along with beating Labour in the 2009 European elections or nearly winning Eastleigh. Yet it perhaps could have been better still."
I suppose one could say that UKIP could have done better, but only after the fact and with hindsight. Just two weeks ago I, and many in UKIP thought that getting up to 50 seats would be a tremendous breakthrough. The median was that 40± would be ok. This was also the what most of PB thought too.
It was only during the last 7 days before the elections that thoughts began to drift to higher possibilities. This was, after all, an all out effort by as yet a small party, which has/had only the flimsiest of bases in some areas of where the candidates were standing. Now will be the time to build the UKIP Party Machine and if you go to UKIP's web page you will notice that they have started a membership drive.
ALL ARE WELCOME
The significance of the result doesn't lie in the number of seats, in reality not much changed yesterday in terms of county councils. The significance lies in the high vote share and potentially if it can be maintained what it means for the established parties at the next GE. If we have a 4 party election it will be highly unpredicatble.
Anyone trying to minimise what Kippers achieved yesterday is kidding themselves - congrats to all involved.
I'm not or ever have been a Kipper - but sympathise with some of their concerns. I predicted 100+ gains but the result was gobsmacking - that Glos, Cambs, ESx, Lincs and Kent either have them as official oppos or as potential pact partners is amazing.
I hope that they do a good job - it will be very hard if they haven't defected from another councillor post as they'll have little collective wisdom/experience to pull on.
It must be very exciting to be part of this - enjoy it :^ )
You said, "Whether he (Cameron) can do much about it is another matter. He, like Clegg, is prevented by the constraints of the coalition from directly addressing the concerns other than through pledges for the future."
I disagree. Clegg is in a panic mode as he sees a major part of his 2010 votes melt away. He is not supported by the majority of LD voters (see the polls) and is unable to control his ineffective Business Secretary - Cable. Clegg has become an ever more truculent baby, smiling in agreement with Cameron at a press conference and the next moment screaming that over his dead body that a certain policy will be enacted. He has proved to be increasingly untrustworthy as a coalition partner as seen when his political projects fail and then refuses to support boundary equilisation and MP reduction.
As the LD policies are mainly contrary to public mood: viz, supporter of EU membership as it is, pro ECHR, pro immigration, pro taxes to subsidise green energy etc; then Cameron would not be in any danger if he continued with Merkel to reform the EU, said that the UK would not carry out a EU directive which disadvantages the UK (would only be copying the French), withdraws temporarily or permanently from the ECHR and exports immigrant terrorists and criminals.
If Clegg says he would withdraw his coalition support, then call his bluff and let him suffer the test of public opinion - probably many of his MPs would not go with him.
OT: "And what of UKIP? This has been an extremely successful week; one of their best ever up along with beating Labour in the 2009 European elections or nearly winning Eastleigh. Yet it perhaps could have been better still."
I suppose one could say that UKIP could have done better, but only after the fact and with hindsight. Just two weeks ago I, and many in UKIP thought that getting up to 50 seats would be a tremendous breakthrough. The median was that 40± would be ok. This was also the what most of PB thought too.
It was only during the last 7 days before the elections that thoughts began to drift to higher possibilities. This was, after all, an all out effort by as yet a small party, which has/had only the flimsiest of bases in some areas of where the candidates were standing. Now will be the time to build the UKIP Party Machine and if you go to UKIP's web page you will notice that they have started a membership drive.
ALL ARE WELCOME
Except in very few areas there was no all out effort by UKIP . Their vote on Thursday was achieved perhaps because but certainly despite a lack of campaign . Here in West Sussex some of their new councillors were elected with virtually no campaign whatsoever and no one is more shocked than themselves .
OT: "And what of UKIP? This has been an extremely successful week; one of their best ever up along with beating Labour in the 2009 European elections or nearly winning Eastleigh. Yet it perhaps could have been better still."
I suppose one could say that UKIP could have done better, but only after the fact and with hindsight. ...
No. The opportunity in Doncaster was obvious from Day 1. I don't know whether running a credible candidate in North Tyneside was an option but even a paper candidate should have beaten the Lib Dem and a good one could well have pushed for a win. Not standing a candidate in either was very much a missed opportunity.
The Lib Dems did, more or less, hold onto their strongholds. The danger is that those strongholds become less strong if they can no longer challenge the other parties outside those strongholds, and they in turn can devote resources to attacking those strongholds.
UKIP are almost entirely negative. They are the party for the times. But not a party of government.
Labour criticising UKIP for a lack of policies might be more credible if labour had some itself. A voter sort of knows where Farage is coming from but what the hell does EdM stand for ?
UKIP certainly have plenty of policies, but they're all negative. A Dyson for protest votes.
UKIP are almost entirely negative. They are the party for the times. But not a party of government.
Labour criticising UKIP for a lack of policies might be more credible if labour had some itself. A voter sort of knows where Farage is coming from but what the hell does EdM stand for ?
UKIP certainly have plenty of policies, but they're all negative. A Dyson for protest votes.
UKIP won 23% in Dorset, 29% per candidate, with one elected.
Hastings is a very troubled town. The Constituency boundaries take in some very posh parts of the surrounding countryside. The Conservatives are only competitive because of their support in places like Rye and Winchilsea and surrounding villages.
Precisely - it is an anomaly in ESx - I really cannot understand how Hastings has been abused by other councils and turned into a dump. I've lived down here for 15yrs and the contrast with Eastbourne that's just a dozen miles away and extremely similar otherwise is stunning. It's like two sides of the same coin and a great shame.
Arguing that those 12 miles along the A27 explains it all is vacuous nonsense. There are over dozen miles between the end of the dualled bit of the A27 and Eastbourne and Hastings has the A21 as a much better route to London.
The Lib Dems did, more or less, hold onto their strongholds. The danger is that those strongholds become less strong if they can no longer challenge the other parties outside those strongholds, and they in turn can devote resources to attacking those strongholds.
The Lib Dems did, more or less, hold onto their strongholds. The danger is that those strongholds become less strong if they can no longer challenge the other parties outside those strongholds, and they in turn can devote resources to attacking those strongholds.
The Lib Dems are simply experiencing a tough in their electoral fortunes. It happens to all parties. It just hadn't happened to them since their foundation. They will be back, perhaps in a different form. I think Clegg was right yesterday. The only thing the LDs have to worry about is that the activist base is now rather old. It needs a refresh.
Jackie Doyle-Price MP on UKIP supporters: "...many people feel that there is no one speaking for them and dealing with the things that really matter to them.
It is that section of the electorate who embraced Margaret Thatcher and embraced Tony Blair. It is a vote which says ‘a plague on all your houses’, It is soft and it swings all over the place."
" Lets just look at the results with a cool head. The Conservatives are topping the polls. Mid-term in challenging circumstances that is no mean feat. The results are truly disastrous for Labour – fighting it out with UKIP for second and third place with a vote share in the low 20 per cents is a truly appalling position for a party with any expectation of forming a Government. "
I don't know if Jackie Doyle-Price is a mendacious spinner peddling lies or just a thick cow who doesn't know what a national equivalent vote is or both.
But either way my view of the political class went another step lower.
The Lib Dems did, more or less, hold onto their strongholds. The danger is that those strongholds become less strong if they can no longer challenge the other parties outside those strongholds, and they in turn can devote resources to attacking those strongholds.
The Lib Dems are simply experiencing a tough in their electoral fortunes. It happens to all parties. It just hadn't happened to them since their foundation. They will be back, perhaps in a different form. I think Clegg was right yesterday. The only thing the LDs have to worry about is that the activist base is now rather old. It needs a refresh.
Errr jonathan I'd hardly say the UKIP one is brimming with teenagers.
I have been going on about this for about a month now (if not as relentlessly as Avery) but I strongly believe now the economy has finally turned. There will be a lot more good news than bad coming down the track for the next 2 years changing perceptions of competence and everything else. We are getting there, don't let Labour ruin it again will be the cry and, however reluctantly, it will resonate with a lot of UKIPers.
Turned into what?
Lets look at this weeks PMI which are supposedly so magnificient
Manufacturing 49.8 Construction 49.4 Services 52.9
Compare them with those of March 2011:
Manufacturing 57.1 Construction 56.4 Services 57.1
Or those of January 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 51.4 Services 56.0
Or those of March 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 56.7 Services 55.3
Or those of August 2012
Manufacturing 49.5 Construction 49.0 Services 53.7
Doesn't suggest we're about to enter a new economic golden age does it ?
And we're still living over £100bn beyond our means so I'm not sure there is anything for Labour to ruin 'again'.
What I can predict with confidence though for the next two years is continuing government borrowing, a continual trade deficit, earnings increases for most being below inflation, an increasing wealth divide and more economic migrants.
I suspect those UKIP voters aren't going to be impressed by that.
Even if, no especially if, the media continues to boast about rising London house prices.
The PMIs are a snap shot and it is true that we have had false dawns before. I just think this time something more fundamental has changed. Q1 was the first growth figure to surprise on the upside for several years. Credit is starting to flow back into the housing market and SMEs. The banks are not fixed but less damaged. Taken together these factors should allow sustainable increases in aggregate private sector demand for the first time in 5 years. North sea oil is at the start of its largest investment program for a decade. Most of the brakes on growth have at least eased.
Does this mean the economy is sorted? Absolutely not. It does mean that I expect growth this year to be about 1% higher than currently forecast and that will reduce government borrowing somewhat. Osborne is going to find it easier to hit financial targets from here on. It should also mean that unemployment will at worse plateau and hopefully fall a little bit. If there is growth in the economy real wages will start to rise, hopefully faster than inflation.
As I said in my original post it will not all be good but the unrelenting gloom of 2010 to now will break up a bit and the government will look a little better as a result. Economics is personal and each voter will have their own experience. Those who voted for UKIP have very probably had the worst of this recession. I am hopeful that as a group their experiences will now start to improve.
UKIP are almost entirely negative. They are the party for the times. But not a party of government.
Labour criticising UKIP for a lack of policies might be more credible if labour had some itself. A voter sort of knows where Farage is coming from but what the hell does EdM stand for ?
UKIP certainly have plenty of policies, but they're all negative. A Dyson for protest votes.
That's the million dollar question that the three big parties have to answer before 2015.
The Lib Dems did, more or less, hold onto their strongholds. The danger is that those strongholds become less strong if they can no longer challenge the other parties outside those strongholds, and they in turn can devote resources to attacking those strongholds.
The Lib Dems are simply experiencing a tough in their electoral fortunes. It happens to all parties. It just hadn't happened to them since their foundation. They will be back, perhaps in a different form. I think Clegg was right yesterday. The only thing the LDs have to worry about is that the activist base is now rather old. It needs a refresh.
Agreed . This is why the Lib Dems will not form a coalition with Labour or the Conservatives whatever the result of the 2015 GE . Opposition is a necessary part of recovery .
The Lib Dems did, more or less, hold onto their strongholds. The danger is that those strongholds become less strong if they can no longer challenge the other parties outside those strongholds, and they in turn can devote resources to attacking those strongholds.
The Lib Dems are simply experiencing a tough in their electoral fortunes. It happens to all parties. It just hadn't happened to them since their foundation. They will be back, perhaps in a different form. I think Clegg was right yesterday. The only thing the LDs have to worry about is that the activist base is now rather old. It needs a refresh.
Errr jonathan I'd hardly say the UKIP one is brimming with teenagers.
In my area at least the LDs are dominated by a core of activists that formed under Ashdown. They have been going for 20 years. They're really good, but need new blood. I think it's a particular LD problem. Once they retire, the LD vote will go with them.
I have been going on about this for about a month now (if not as relentlessly as Avery) but I strongly believe now the economy has finally turned. There will be a lot more good news than bad coming down the track for the next 2 years changing perceptions of competence and everything else. We are getting there, don't let Labour ruin it again will be the cry and, however reluctantly, it will resonate with a lot of UKIPers.
Turned into what?
Lets look at this weeks PMI which are supposedly so magnificient
Manufacturing 49.8 Construction 49.4 Services 52.9
Compare them with those of March 2011:
Manufacturing 57.1 Construction 56.4 Services 57.1
Or those of January 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 51.4 Services 56.0
Or those of March 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 56.7 Services 55.3
Or those of August 2012
Manufacturing 49.5 Construction 49.0 Services 53.7
Doesn't suggest we're about to enter a new economic golden age does it ?
And we're still living over £100bn beyond our means so I'm not sure there is anything for Labour to ruin 'again'.
What I can predict with confidence though for the next two years is continuing government borrowing, a continual trade deficit, earnings increases for most being below inflation, an increasing wealth divide and more economic migrants.
I suspect those UKIP voters aren't going to be impressed by that.
Even if, no especially if, the media continues to boast about rising London house prices.
The PMIs are a snap shot and it is true that we have had false dawns before. I just think this time something more fundamental has changed. Q1 was the first growth figure to surprise on the upside for several years. Credit is starting to flow back into the housing market and SMEs. The banks are not fixed but less damaged. Taken together these factors should allow sustainable increases in aggregate private sector demand for the first time in 5 years. North sea oil is at the start of its largest investment program for a decade. Most of the brakes on growth have at least eased.
Does this mean the economy is sorted? Absolutely not. It does mean that I expect growth this year to be about 1% higher than currently forecast and that will reduce government borrowing somewhat. Osborne is going to find it easier to hit financial targets from here on. It should also mean that unemployment will at worse plateau and hopefully fall a little bit. If there is growth in the economy real wages will start to rise, hopefully faster than inflation.
As I said in my original post it will not all be good but the unrelenting gloom of 2010 to now will break up a bit and the government will look a little better as a result. Economics is personal and each voter will have their own experience. Those who voted for UKIP have very probably had the worst of this recession. I am hopeful that as a group their experiences will now start to improve.
DavidL, I agree with you the economy is in recovery mode and will pick up between now and the GE. It's just I don't think HMG has had much to do with the pickup, this recovery is despite Osborne not because of him.
The Lib Dems did, more or less, hold onto their strongholds. The danger is that those strongholds become less strong if they can no longer challenge the other parties outside those strongholds, and they in turn can devote resources to attacking those strongholds.
The Lib Dems are simply experiencing a tough in their electoral fortunes. It happens to all parties. It just hadn't happened to them since their foundation. They will be back, perhaps in a different form. I think Clegg was right yesterday. The only thing the LDs have to worry about is that the activist base is now rather old. It needs a refresh.
Errr jonathan I'd hardly say the UKIP one is brimming with teenagers.
UKIP did not need any activists on Thursday , they only needed a name on the ballot paper with UKIP beside it to get 20 to 25 % of the vote .
Another Richard PMI's were very good at the start of last year, which made it such a surprise when growth for the first quarter was negative. Revisions have almost eliminated that negative, and IMO, the PMI's will eventually be proved right. But, the wider point is correct. Most people will see their living standards remain - at best - flat for years to come, and that is particularly true of UKIP voters.
No doubt some UKIP County councillors will be awful, but the standard of comparison is not high.
The Lib Dems did, more or less, hold onto their strongholds. The danger is that those strongholds become less strong if they can no longer challenge the other parties outside those strongholds, and they in turn can devote resources to attacking those strongholds.
The Lib Dems are simply experiencing a tough in their electoral fortunes. It happens to all parties. It just hadn't happened to them since their foundation. They will be back, perhaps in a different form. I think Clegg was right yesterday. The only thing the LDs have to worry about is that the activist base is now rather old. It needs a refresh.
Errr jonathan I'd hardly say the UKIP one is brimming with teenagers.
UKIP did not need any activists on Thursday , they only needed a name on the ballot paper with UKIP beside it to get 20 to 25 % of the vote .
The same applied to the LDs in the last GE too. Why gripe about someone else's base when your own benefits in the same way.
Agreed. It's complicated by the fact that many surburban marginals are in fact a mixture of urban areas, commuter towns and villages on the city edge. They vote entirely differently, giving candidates and parties a real challenge.
I should point out that Labour also has little to offer these areas. We are not going to get tuition fees abolished or environmental taxes cut in a Labour manifesto.
The proposed VAT cut will again cause hassle to shopkeepers and suck in imports, while pushing up borrowing. Far better to cut fuel taxes, and carbon taxes, so as to reduce peoples domestic bills this way, and make committing to work affordable. Cheap flights would also go down well with hard working families.
Economic growth and manufacturing thrive on cheap energy, whether Victorian Britain or post war USA. The Shale gas revolution has the potential to get the world out of its economic doldrums. It would require a major dumping of environmental targets.
I am pro-europe, and would vote to stay in the EU, but the dumping of green taxes is about the only UKIP policy that appeals to me.
That illustrates the political problem for suburban politicians (leaving aside for the moment what we believe to be right). Cutting fuel tax by enough to be noticeable would need to be balanced by raising other taxes significantly (unless you favour increasing the deficit, which I don't think you do) or finding big further cuts. In those suburban marginals that we're discussing, the villages would love the package and the urban areas (which tend to have good public transport and have lots of greenish people) would hate it. There's a reason why the Tory MPs in places like Brighton and Hove are very environmentally-friendly.
I, and I believe the majority of people, in this country find their message repellent
I, and I believe the majority of people in this country, find the message [give-us-more-from-the-Magic-Money-Tree] of Labour voters repellent. I find the contemplated actions of about 20 registered Birmingham voters, who've been found guilty in 2013 terror trials, even more repellent .....
" Agreed . This is why the Lib Dems will not form a coalition with Labour or the Conservatives whatever the result of the 2015 GE . Opposition is a necessary part of recovery "
I agree Mark.
However do you really believe that the Lid Dem leadership would turn down cabinet positions if offered in 2015.
Momentum, as in sport, is an important quality in politics and currently momentum is with UKIP.
Most probably they will continue that momentum in the 2014 EUROs, but during that time will they be able to co-ordinate as a political party and agree common purpose and policies (and a manifesto) so that they can build towards fighting every English seat in 2015?
Also will they be able to control their less PR experienced members and candidates so that they do not provide easy headlines for the Sun and Mail? Other political parties have attempted and failed to complete such tasks in such a short time scale.
UKIP won 23% in Dorset, 29% per candidate, with one elected.
Hastings is a very troubled town. The Constituency boundaries take in some very posh parts of the surrounding countryside. The Conservatives are only competitive because of their support in places like Rye and Winchilsea and surrounding villages.
Tory anecdote alert: I first visited Hastings as part of my coastal walk. The following happened mid-morning on a cold December Saturday.
Past the pier in Hastings there are two promenades, the upper one being directly above the lower one. I chose to walk along the upper one that runs beside the road so that I would get better views As I walked along four men who were standing by the railing called me over and asked me of I knew first aid. I asked why, and they pointed to a young man who was lying on the lower promenade ten or twelve feet below. There was a fair amount of blood about and some strange things went through my head - should I go down to help, would I be endangered, what would happen.
The man was not moving and he was on his own, so I decided to go down and see if I could help. My first problem was how to get down - eventually I ran for about a hundred yards to a ramp that lead down to the lower promenade. (Later on I found there were some stairs immediately opposite.) Running with my pack on must have seemed quite funny to onlookers, as my collection pot was flying about everywhere as it had come loose from my pack and was only attached by a string. when I reached the man I could see a large gash on his forehead and he was holding his side, so I thought that he may have fallen off the upper promenade. It was clear he was breathing, so I shrugged my pack off and knelt down beside him. When I touched his forehead he stirred, and when I asked his name he replied that he was called Tim. Since he was conscious and breathing I did not put him in the recovery position, and chatted to him until the police and paramedics came. He was very vague, and when I asked him how long he had been there he replied 'two months', which I assume was the length of time he had been in Hastings rather than how long he had been lying there, which is what I had meant. One of the two policemen took my details and I then continued on the walk in a very strange mood.
It was a strange introduction to a new town. It looked to me as though he had been badly roughed up by someone, but I never discovered the whole story.
I daresay the same thing could have happened in any town or city in the UK; it's just the only time I've ever come across a victim of what appeared to be a serious assault. And the time of day was odd as well - mid-morning, before the pubs are open.
The Lib Dems did, more or less, hold onto their strongholds. The danger is that those strongholds become less strong if they can no longer challenge the other parties outside those strongholds, and they in turn can devote resources to attacking those strongholds.
The Lib Dems are simply experiencing a tough in their electoral fortunes. It happens to all parties. It just hadn't happened to them since their foundation. They will be back, perhaps in a different form. I think Clegg was right yesterday. The only thing the LDs have to worry about is that the activist base is now rather old. It needs a refresh.
Errr jonathan I'd hardly say the UKIP one is brimming with teenagers.
UKIP did not need any activists on Thursday , they only needed a name on the ballot paper with UKIP beside it to get 20 to 25 % of the vote .
Does it matter that UKIP beat the LDs in vote share?
The public sector accounts for 43% of employment. There are new clusters of media and engineering firms, but the overall rate of business creation is among the lowest in the country.
The mistruths spewed by upper-middle-class champagne-socialists does not mask the guilt that they feel for their own mismanagement, no siree! It exemplifies their contempt for those who call England their home.
That doesn't surprise me at all - I used to go to Hastings quite often in the mid 00s and since it's just gone from bad to worse.
It was the very sad seafront - all peeling paint and rusting railings that said everything, the shops have become even crummier, the local SeaLife shut down, the hotels empty, the residents grim and downtrodden.
It even had EU funding as a deprived area - WTF? It's in one of the wealthiest parts of the SE and a complete hole for no obvious reason bar what others have done to it. Crawley is a paradise in comparison.
this was the message being pushed out by UKIP overnight in their email newsletter. Certainly looks to me like the get the basics as far as they have always been set out on here about a councillor base.
"1.25 million votes across the country – more than at the last General Election
UKIP won 154 Council seats (including 6 at District/Unitary by-elections)
Average of 24.6% of the vote where we stood
17 County Council seats in Kent, 16 in Lincolnshire, 12 in Cambridgeshire, 9 in Essex
UKIP will become the ‘official opposition’ or hold the balance of power on a number of Councils
The Eastern Counties (26.2%) and South East (26.1%) were UKIP’s top two performing regions.
878 UKIP candidates finished in second place
776 UKIP candidates took more than 25% of the vote
In wards where UKIP and the Lib Dems went head to head, UKIP took over 300,000 votes more than the Lib Dems
In wards where UKIP and Labour went head to head, UKIP took almost 200,000 votes more than Labour
UKIP finishes ahead of the Conservatives in almost 500 seats across the country
UKIP took the most votes across at least 2 Parliamentary constituencies (Great Yarmouth and Boston & Skegness), possibly more.
The next few months will be a critical time for us. Every single one of our new councillors will be in the spotlight, whether in terms of media interest or more likely because voters will want to see what UKIP councillors are able to achieve in their area. It’s worth noting that Pete Reeve was re-elected in Ramsey on 67% of the vote. That shows just how much difference one hard-working councillor can make to the level of UKIP support in their local area. Having a new councillor base will give us opportunities to be more active, supporting local residents. If our councillors are ambassadors for the Party, if they show that they care about the communities that they represent and if they work and vote on behalf of local residents rather than party politics, then people will be convinced that we offer something different.
There is a reason why parties very rarely gain seats at Westminster without first winning Council seats. By winning so many Council seats, we have done two things: firstly, we have removed the ‘wasted vote’ argument. Secondly, we have created a realistic prospect of taking seats at a General Election. May 2nd 2013 was one of the best nights in the Party’s history. The huge question is this: can we build upon Thursday's success to achieve even more in 2014 and 2015?"
I have been going on about this for about a month now (if not as relentlessly as Avery) but I strongly believe now the economy has finally turned. There will be a lot more good news than bad coming down the track for the next 2 years changing perceptions of competence and everything else. We are getting there, don't let Labour ruin it again will be the cry and, however reluctantly, it will resonate with a lot of UKIPers.
Turned into what?
Lets look at this weeks PMI which are supposedly so magnificient
Manufacturing 49.8 Construction 49.4 Services 52.9
Compare them with those of March 2011:
Manufacturing 57.1 Construction 56.4 Services 57.1
Or those of January 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 51.4 Services 56.0
Or those of March 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 56.7 Services 55.3
Or those of August 2012
Manufacturing 49.5 Construction 49.0 Services 53.7
Doesn't suggest we're about to enter a new economic golden age does it ?
And we're still living over £100bn beyond our means so I'm not sure there is anything for Labour to ruin 'again'.
What I can predict with confidence though for the next two years is continuing government borrowing, a continual trade deficit, earnings increases for most being below inflation, an increasing wealth divide and more economic migrants.
I suspect those UKIP voters aren't going to be impressed by that.
Even if, no especially if, the media continues to boast about rising London house prices.
The PMIs are a snap shot and it is true that we have had false dawns before. I just think this time something more fundamental has changed. Q1 was the first growth figure to surprise on the upside for several years. Credit is starting to flow back into the housing market and SMEs. The banks are not fixed but less damaged. Taken together these factors should allow sustainable increases in aggregate private sector demand for the first time in 5 years. North sea oil is at the start of its largest investment program for a decade. Most of the brakes on growth have at least eased.
Does this mean the economy is sorted? Absolutely not. It does mean that I expect growth this year to be about 1% higher than currently forecast and that will reduce government borrowing somewhat. Osborne is going to find it easier to hit financial targets from here on. It should also mean that unemployment will at worse plateau and hopefully fall a little bit. If there is growth in the economy real wages will start to rise, hopefully faster than inflation.
As I said in my original post it will not all be good but the unrelenting gloom of 2010 to now will break up a bit and the government will look a little better as a result. Economics is personal and each voter will have their own experience. Those who voted for UKIP have very probably had the worst of this recession. I am hopeful that as a group their experiences will now start to improve.
DavidL, I agree with you the economy is in recovery mode and will pick up between now and the GE. It's just I don't think HMG has had much to do with the pickup, this recovery is despite Osborne not because of him.
We could argue about that all day. I think some government policies have helped, some have not and those that have helped really should have been done quicker.
But that is not the point. It does not matter if Osborne is a Napoleonic kind of Chancellor, lucky rather than good, or simply good. Either way, he inherited a total shambles and will deliver something better, if not great, at the next election. There is votes in that if the benefits are enjoyed by the CDs who have really been hurt by this recession and had a much smaller margin of error in the first place.
If the benefits simply flow to the better off then they will be thrashed and rightly so.
The Lib Dems did, more or less, hold onto their strongholds. The danger is that those strongholds become less strong if they can no longer challenge the other parties outside those strongholds, and they in turn can devote resources to attacking those strongholds.
The Lib Dems are simply experiencing a tough in their electoral fortunes. It happens to all parties. It just hadn't happened to them since their foundation. They will be back, perhaps in a different form. I think Clegg was right yesterday. The only thing the LDs have to worry about is that the activist base is now rather old. It needs a refresh.
Errr jonathan I'd hardly say the UKIP one is brimming with teenagers.
UKIP did not need any activists on Thursday , they only needed a name on the ballot paper with UKIP beside it to get 20 to 25 % of the vote .
Does it matter that UKIP beat the LDs in vote share?
No is the short answer , I have to go out now for a few hours . The Greens have beaten the Lib Dems before in vote share in a UK wide election as indeed have UKIP
Another Richard PMI's were very good at the start of last year, which made it such a surprise when growth for the first quarter was negative. Revisions have almost eliminated that negative, and IMO, the PMI's will eventually be proved right. But, the wider point is correct. Most people will see their living standards remain - at best - flat for years to come, and that is particularly true of UKIP voters.
Indeed and this is why I keep telling Avery that his economic triumphalism will only cost the Conservatives support.
We're in for a generation of low growth / economic stagnation. For many people this has been happening since 2000 but was initially hidden by increased household borrowing and rising house prices.
But within this overall trend the 'winners' of globalisation will continue to prosper and wealth divides increase.
Which is very damaging for a Conservative party with a privileged leadership.
I do suspect there's an increasing economic fairness rationale behind UKIP support. The sense that there's one rule for 'them' and another rule for 'us' and that the government is on the side of 'them'.
Examples being "the government bailed out the banks but let the factory I worked at shut down" and the tax avoidance of multinationals compared with the endless admin small business endure and get punished for not getting right.
The work done by Margaret Hodge with the Public Affairs committee into this area is underestimated in its political effect.
Congrats Mr Tyndall - you've poked a lot of the political Establishment in the eye with a big pointy stick. It needed doing and the Kippers have scored big time.
I heard about this posh guy who went down to Hastings with a bunch of mates. Encountered a load of illegal immigrants. There was a massive punch up. Said posh boy ends up dead with an arrow in his eye. Where was UKIP then?
That doesn't surprise me at all - I used to go to Hastings quite often in the mid 00s and since it's just gone from bad to worse.
It was the very sad seafront - all peeling paint and rusting railings that said everything, the shops have become even crummier, the local SeaLife shut down, the hotels empty, the residents grim and downtrodden.
It even had EU funding as a deprived area - WTF? It's in one of the wealthiest parts of the SE and a complete hole for no obvious reason bar what others have done to it. Crawley is a paradise in comparison.
The local MP had an interview in the FT recently:
“A lot of unemployed families were moved to Hastings and places were built for them. They’re communities of unemployed people. It’s been difficult dealing with that,” says Rudd, tucking her honey-blonde hair behind her ears as the train trundles through the stockbroker belt.
“You get people who are on benefits, who prefer to be on benefits by the seaside. They’re not moving down here to get a job, they’re moving down here to have easier access to friends and drugs and drink.”
The public sector accounts for 43% of employment. There are new clusters of media and engineering firms, but the overall rate of business creation is among the lowest in the country.
The mistruths spewed by upper-middle-class champagne-socialists does not mask the guilt that they feel for their own mismanagement, no siree! It exemplifies their contempt for those who call England their home.
Thanks for that - I merely point out the bleeding obvious as a local resident very familiar with the town - tsk, what do I know...
I have been going on about this for about a month now (if not as relentlessly as Avery) but I strongly believe now the economy has finally turned. There will be a lot more good news than bad coming down the track for the next 2 years changing perceptions of competence and everything else. We are getting there, don't let Labour ruin it again will be the cry and, however reluctantly, it will resonate with a lot of UKIPers.
Turned into what?
Lets look at this weeks PMI which are supposedly so magnificient
Manufacturing 49.8 Construction 49.4 Services 52.9
Compare them with those of March 2011:
Manufacturing 57.1 Construction 56.4 Services 57.1
Or those of January 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 51.4 Services 56.0
Or those of March 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 56.7 Services 55.3
Or those of August 2012
Manufacturing 49.5 Construction 49.0 Services 53.7
Doesn't suggest we're about to enter a new economic golden age does it ?
And we're still living over £100bn beyond our means so I'm not sure there is anything for Labour to ruin 'again'.
What I can predict with confidence though for the next two years is continuing government borrowing, a continual trade deficit, earnings increases for most being below inflation, an increasing wealth divide and more economic migrants.
I suspect those UKIP voters aren't going to be impressed by that.
Even if, no especially if, the media continues to boast about rising London house prices.
The PMIs are a snap shot and it is true that we have had false dawns before. I just think this time something more fundamental has changed. Q1 was the first growth figure to surprise on the upside for several years. Credit is starting to flow back into the housing market and SMEs. The banks are not fixed but less damaged. Taken together these factors should allow sustainable increases in aggregate private sector demand for the first time in 5 years. North sea oil is at the start of its largest investment program for a decade. Most of the brakes on growth have at least eased.
Does this mean the economy is sorted? Absolutely not. It does mean that I expect growth this year to be about 1% higher than currently forecast and that will reduce government borrowing somewhat. Osborne is going to find it easier to hit financial targets from here on. It should also mean that unemployment will at worse plateau and hopefully fall a little bit. If there is growth in the economy real wages will start to rise, hopefully faster than inflation.
As I said in my original post it will not all be good but the unrelenting gloom of 2010 to now will break up a bit and the government will look a little better as a result. Economics is personal and each voter will have their own experience. Those who voted for UKIP have very probably had the worst of this recession. I am hopeful that as a group their experiences will now start to improve.
DavidL, I agree with you the economy is in recovery mode and will pick up between now and the GE. It's just I don't think HMG has had much to do with the pickup, this recovery is despite Osborne not because of him.
We could argue about that all day. I think some government policies have helped, some have not and those that have helped really should have been done quicker.
But that is not the point. It does not matter if Osborne is a Napoleonic kind of Chancellor, lucky rather than good, or simply good. Either way, he inherited a total shambles and will deliver something better, if not great, at the next election. There is votes in that if the benefits are enjoyed by the CDs who have really been hurt by this recession and had a much smaller margin of error in the first place.
If the benefits simply flow to the better off then they will be thrashed and rightly so.
I think the problem with the Napoleonic theory is the luck struck once ( IHT ) and has been noticeably absent since. I would argue GO had a unique chance to take major steps at the beginning of his chancellorship when most of the country recognised the hole we were in and would have taken the medicine. He fluffed it, and has been on the backfoot ever since.
I would love to be able to claim I was really in any way responsible even for a tiny part of this result but as you know I have a dislike bordering on loathing for all political parties, even the ones I support. My input has always been very fringe and limited to providing research based hard data and spreading the anti-EU message as widely as possible. For better or worse UKIP have managed this breakthrough without my assistance.
Nice to see the political classes all stirred up though even if only for a while.
The Lib Dems did, more or less, hold onto their strongholds. The danger is that those strongholds become less strong if they can no longer challenge the other parties outside those strongholds, and they in turn can devote resources to attacking those strongholds.
The Lib Dems are simply experiencing a tough in their electoral fortunes. It happens to all parties. It just hadn't happened to them since their foundation. They will be back, perhaps in a different form. I think Clegg was right yesterday. The only thing the LDs have to worry about is that the activist base is now rather old. It needs a refresh.
Agreed . This is why the Lib Dems will not form a coalition with Labour or the Conservatives whatever the result of the 2015 GE . Opposition is a necessary part of recovery .
I think it's been amply demonstrated that the LibDems are the most unprincipled party in the land. They will form a coalition with anything and anyone if it gets their paws on power.
"Tory council chiefs hit out at benefit cap 'ghettos' The Government's new benefit cap will create "ghettos" in some costal resort town, Tory council leaders have warned.
Paul Carter, the Conservative leader of Kent County Council, is urging the Government to introduce new laws to try to stop London councils moving benefit claimants into deprived areas of coastal towns with lower rents than the capital."
Any progress on this yet?
Have the Tories tried shipping the benefits claimants off to Spain? Maybe the way to fight back against UKIP is to create a new ideology of pro-European right-wing populist internationalism.
The Lib Dems did, more or less, hold onto their strongholds. The danger is that those strongholds become less strong if they can no longer challenge the other parties outside those strongholds, and they in turn can devote resources to attacking those strongholds.
The Lib Dems are simply experiencing a tough in their electoral fortunes. It happens to all parties. It just hadn't happened to them since their foundation. They will be back, perhaps in a different form. I think Clegg was right yesterday. The only thing the LDs have to worry about is that the activist base is now rather old. It needs a refresh.
Errr jonathan I'd hardly say the UKIP one is brimming with teenagers.
In my area at least the LDs are dominated by a core of activists that formed under Ashdown. They have been going for 20 years. They're really good, but need new blood. I think it's a particular LD problem. Once they retire, the LD vote will go with them.
IIRC there are a number of pretty aged LD MPs who will be well past retirement age in 2015. Will they stand down? If so, the incumbency vote will be diminished. Six looks about right given how many hang on well after this date.
The Lib Dems did, more or less, hold onto their strongholds. The danger is that those strongholds become less strong if they can no longer challenge the other parties outside those strongholds, and they in turn can devote resources to attacking those strongholds.
The Lib Dems are simply experiencing a tough in their electoral fortunes. It happens to all parties. It just hadn't happened to them since their foundation. They will be back, perhaps in a different form. I think Clegg was right yesterday. The only thing the LDs have to worry about is that the activist base is now rather old. It needs a refresh.
Agreed . This is why the Lib Dems will not form a coalition with Labour or the Conservatives whatever the result of the 2015 GE . Opposition is a necessary part of recovery .
I think it's been amply demonstrated that the LibDems are the most unprincipled party in the land. They will form a coalition with anything and anyone if it gets their paws on power.
Thankfully it ain't going to happen.
the most idiotic post of anyone on here this morning .
" Agreed . This is why the Lib Dems will not form a coalition with Labour or the Conservatives whatever the result of the 2015 GE . Opposition is a necessary part of recovery "
I agree Mark.
However do you really believe that the Lid Dem leadership would turn down cabinet positions if offered in 2015.
There is nothing they would not do, no principle they would not drop and no back they would not stab to get power. They are unprincipled rogues and charlatans.
I have been going on about this for about a month now (if not as relentlessly as Avery) but I strongly believe now the economy has finally turned. There will be a lot more good news than bad coming down the track for the next 2 years changing perceptions of competence and everything else. We are getting there, don't let Labour ruin it again will be the cry and, however reluctantly, it will resonate with a lot of UKIPers.
Turned into what?
Lets look at this weeks PMI which are supposedly so magnificient
Manufacturing 49.8 Construction 49.4 Services 52.9
Compare them with those of March 2011:
Manufacturing 57.1 Construction 56.4 Services 57.1
Or those of January 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 51.4 Services 56.0
Or those of March 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 56.7 Services 55.3
Or those of August 2012
Manufacturing 49.5 Construction 49.0 Services 53.7
Doesn't suggest we're about to enter a new economic golden age does it ?
And we're still living over £100bn beyond our means so I'm not sure there is anything for Labour to ruin 'again'.
What I can predict with confidence though for the next two years is continuing government borrowing, a continual trade deficit, earnings increases for most being below inflation, an increasing wealth divide and more economic migrants.
I suspect those UKIP voters aren't going to be impressed by that.
Even if, no especially if, the media continues to boast about rising London house prices.
The PMIs are a snap shot and it is true that we have had false dawns before. I just think this time something more fundamental has changed. Q1 was the first growth figure to surprise on the upside for several years. Credit is starting to flow back into the housing market and SMEs. The banks are not fixed but less damaged. Taken together these factors should allow sustainable increases in aggregate private sector demand for the first time in 5 years. North sea oil is at the start of its largest investment program for a decade. Most of the brakes on growth have at least eased.
Does this mean the economy is sorted? Absolutely not. It does mean that I expect growth this year to be about 1% higher than currently forecast and that will reduce government borrowing somewhat. Osborne is going to find it easier to hit financial targets from here on. It should also mean that unemployment will at worse plateau and hopefully fall a little bit. If there is growth in the economy real wages will start to rise, hopefully faster than inflation.
As I said in my original post it will not all be good but the unrelenting gloom of 2010 to now will break up a bit and the government will look a little better as a result. Economics is personal and each voter will have their own experience. Those who voted for UKIP have very probably had the worst of this recession. I am hopeful that as a group their experiences will now start to improve.
DavidL, I agree with you the economy is in recovery mode and will pick up between now and the GE. It's just I don't think HMG has had much to do with the pickup, this recovery is despite Osborne not because of him.
We could argue about that all day. I think some government policies have helped, some have not and those that have helped really should have been done quicker.
But that is not the point. It does not matter if Osborne is a Napoleonic kind of Chancellor, lucky rather than good, or simply good. Either way, he inherited a total shambles and will deliver something better, if not great, at the next election. There is votes in that if the benefits are enjoyed by the CDs who have really been hurt by this recession and had a much smaller margin of error in the first place.
If the benefits simply flow to the better off then they will be thrashed and rightly so.
I think the problem with the Napoleonic theory is the luck struck once ( IHT ) and has been noticeably absent since. I would argue GO had a unique chance to take major steps at the beginning of his chancellorship when most of the country recognised the hole we were in and would have taken the medicine. He fluffed it, and has been on the backfoot ever since.
If this country had been ready to take its medicine Cameron would have had a comfortable majority. The reality is that a plurality were and still are in denial. That is what Osborne has to work with and it is not easy.
I share some of your frustrations and disappointments about this but I think you underestimate how hard the job was both economically and politically.
Another Richard PMI's were very good at the start of last year, which made it such a surprise when growth for the first quarter was negative. Revisions have almost eliminated that negative, and IMO, the PMI's will eventually be proved right. But, the wider point is correct. Most people will see their living standards remain - at best - flat for years to come, and that is particularly true of UKIP voters.
Indeed and this is why I keep telling Avery that his economic triumphalism will only cost the Conservatives support.
We're in for a generation of low growth / economic stagnation. For many people this has been happening since 2000 but was initially hidden by increased household borrowing and rising house prices.
But within this overall trend the 'winners' of globalisation will continue to prosper and wealth divides increase.
Which is very damaging for a Conservative party with a privileged leadership.
I do suspect there's an increasing economic fairness rationale behind UKIP support. The sense that there's one rule for 'them' and another rule for 'us' and that the government is on the side of 'them'.
Examples being "the government bailed out the banks but let the factory I worked at shut down" and the tax avoidance of multinationals compared with the endless admin small business endure and get punished for not getting right.
The work done by Margaret Hodge with the Public Affairs committee into this area is underestimated in its political effect.
"I keep telling Avery that his economic triumphalism will only cost the Conservatives support."
LOL me too it annoys me when people claim credit for something they haven't done. Still it helped me decide not to vote blue for about the first time in 30 years. Great success as Borat would say.
Agreed. It's complicated by the fact that many surburban marginals are in fact a mixture of urban areas, commuter towns and villages on the city edge. They vote entirely differently, giving candidates and parties a real challenge.
I should point out that Labour also has little to offer these areas. We are not going to get tuition fees abolished or environmental taxes cut in a Labour manifesto.
The proposed VAT cut will again cause hassle to shopkeepers and suck in imports, while pushing up borrowing. Far better to cut fuel taxes, and carbon taxes, so as to reduce peoples domestic bills this way, and make committing to work affordable. Cheap flights would also go down well with hard working families.
Economic growth and manufacturing thrive on cheap energy, whether Victorian Britain or post war USA. The Shale gas revolution has the potential to get the world out of its economic doldrums. It would require a major dumping of environmental targets.
I am pro-europe, and would vote to stay in the EU, but the dumping of green taxes is about the only UKIP policy that appeals to me.
That illustrates the political problem for suburban politicians (leaving aside for the moment what we believe to be right). Cutting fuel tax by enough to be noticeable would need to be balanced by raising other taxes significantly (unless you favour increasing the deficit, which I don't think you do) or finding big further cuts. In those suburban marginals that we're discussing, the villages would love the package and the urban areas (which tend to have good public transport and have lots of greenish people) would hate it. There's a reason why the Tory MPs in places like Brighton and Hove are very environmentally-friendly.
Any tax cut would temporarily increase the deficit, but ones to Green taxes would do most to stimulate real economic growth. I suspect the anti-green agenda is the local policy that UKIP councilors will do best with. Opposition to wind farms, increases in car park restrictions etc. The green agenda works in times of prosperity, but seems an expensive luxury in hard times.
Another Richard PMI's were very good at the start of last year, which made it such a surprise when growth for the first quarter was negative. Revisions have almost eliminated that negative, and IMO, the PMI's will eventually be proved right. But, the wider point is correct. Most people will see their living standards remain - at best - flat for years to come, and that is particularly true of UKIP voters.
Indeed and this is why I keep telling Avery that his economic triumphalism will only cost the Conservatives support.
We're in for a generation of low growth / economic stagnation. For many people this has been happening since 2000 but was initially hidden by increased household borrowing and rising house prices.
But within this overall trend the 'winners' of globalisation will continue to prosper and wealth divides increase.
Which is very damaging for a Conservative party with a privileged leadership.
I do suspect there's an increasing economic fairness rationale behind UKIP support. The sense that there's one rule for 'them' and another rule for 'us' and that the government is on the side of 'them'.
Examples being "the government bailed out the banks but let the factory I worked at shut down" and the tax avoidance of multinationals compared with the endless admin small business endure and get punished for not getting right.
The work done by Margaret Hodge with the Public Affairs committee into this area is underestimated in its political effect.
There was an analyst report written up in the papers recently, saying that the green taxes/subsidies on energy would become politically unsustainable in the next few years as rising prices would make cost of living a hot button issue.
I have been going on about this for about a month now (if not as relentlessly as Avery) but I strongly believe now the economy has finally turned. There will be a lot more good news than bad coming down the track for the next 2 years changing perceptions of competence and everything else. We are getting there, don't let Labour ruin it again will be the cry and, however reluctantly, it will resonate with a lot of UKIPers.
Turned into what?
Lets look at this weeks PMI which are supposedly so magnificient
Manufacturing 49.8 Construction 49.4 Services 52.9
Compare them with those of March 2011:
Manufacturing 57.1 Construction 56.4 Services 57.1
Or those of January 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 51.4 Services 56.0
Or those of March 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 56.7 Services 55.3
Or those of August 2012
Manufacturing 49.5 Construction 49.0 Services 53.7
Doesn't suggest we're about to enter a new economic golden age does it ?
And we're still living over £100bn beyond our means so I'm not sure there is anything for Labour to ruin 'again'.
What I can predict with confidence though for the next two years is continuing government borrowing, a continual trade deficit, earnings increases for most being below inflation, an increasing wealth divide and more economic migrants.
I suspect those UKIP voters aren't going to be impressed by that.
Even if, no especially if, the media continues to boast about rising London house prices.
The PMIs are a snap shot and it is true that we have had false dawns before. I just think this time something more fundamental has changed. Q1 was the first growth figure to surprise on the upside for several years. Credit is starting to flow back into the housing market and SMEs. The banks are not fixed but less damaged. Taken together these factors should allow sustainable increases in aggregate private sector demand for the first time in 5 years. North sea oil is at the start of its largest investment program for a decade. Most of the brakes on growth have at least eased.
Does this mean the economy is sorted? Absolutely not. It does mean that I expect growth this year to be about 1% higher than currently forecast and that will reduce government borrowing somewhat. Osborne is going to find it easier to hit financial targets from here on. It should also mean that unemployment will at worse plateau and hopefully fall a little bit. If there is growth in the economy real wages will start to rise, hopefully faster than inflation.
As I said in my original post it will not all be good but the unrelenting gloom of 2010 to now will break up a bit and the government will look a little better as a result. Economics is personal and each voter will have their own experience. Those who voted for UKIP have very probably had the worst of this recession. I am hopeful that as a group their experiences will now start to improve.
DavidL, I agree with you the economy is in recovery mode and will pick up between now and the GE. It's just I don't think HMG has had much to do with the pickup, this recovery is despite Osborne not because of him.
We could argue about that all day. I think some government policies have helped, some have not and those that have helped really should have been done quicker.
But that is not the point. It does not matter if Osborne is a Napoleonic kind of Chancellor, lucky rather than good, or simply good. Either way, he inherited a total shambles and will deliver something better, if not great, at the next election. There is votes in that if the benefits are enjoyed by the CDs who have really been hurt by this recession and had a much smaller margin of error in the first place.
If the benefits simply flow to the better off then they will be thrashed and rightly so.
I think the problem with the Napoleonic theory is the luck struck once ( IHT ) and has been noticeably absent since. I would argue GO had a unique chance to take major steps at the beginning of his chancellorship when most of the country recognised the hole we were in and would have taken the medicine. He fluffed it, and has been on the backfoot ever since.
If this country had been ready to take its medicine Cameron would have had a comfortable majority. The reality is that a plurality were and still are in denial. That is what Osborne has to work with and it is not easy.
I share some of your frustrations and disappointments about this but I think you underestimate how hard the job was both economically and politically.
sorry david, I just don't accept the it's really difficult line. Osborne and Cameron have made enough difficult unpopular decisons on side issues the public doesn't care about. They spent their political capital on fripperies instead of where it counts. Clegg has done much the same. While they ask for sympathy in truth they are pretty much the authors of their own misfortunes.
I have been going on about this for about a month now (if not as relentlessly as Avery) but I strongly believe now the economy has finally turned. There will be a lot more good news than bad coming down the track for the next 2 years changing perceptions of competence and everything else. We are getting there, don't let Labour ruin it again will be the cry and, however reluctantly, it will resonate with a lot of UKIPers.
Turned into what?
Lets look at this weeks PMI which are supposedly so magnificient
Manufacturing 49.8 Construction 49.4 Services 52.9
Compare them with those of March 2011:
Manufacturing 57.1 Construction 56.4 Services 57.1
Or those of January 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 51.4 Services 56.0
Or those of March 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 56.7 Services 55.3
Or those of August 2012
Manufacturing 49.5 Construction 49.0 Services 53.7
Doesn't suggest we're about to enter a new economic golden age does it ?
And we're still living over £100bn beyond our means so I'm not sure there is anything for Labour to ruin 'again'.
What I can predict with confidence though for the next two years is continuing government borrowing, a continual trade deficit, earnings increases for most being below inflation, an increasing wealth divide and more economic migrants.
I suspect those UKIP voters aren't going to be impressed by that.
Even if, no especially if, the media continues to boast about rising London house prices.
The PMIs are a snap shot and it is true that we have had false dawns before. I just think this time something more fundamental has changed. Q1 was the first growth figure to surprise on the upside for several years. Credit is starting to flow back into the housing market and SMEs. The banks are not fixed but less damaged. Taken together these factors should allow sustainable increases in aggregate private sector demand for the first time in 5 years. North sea oil is at the start of its largest investment program for a decade. Most of the brakes on growth have at least eased.
Does this mean the economy is sorted? Absolutely not. It does mean that I expect growth this year to be about 1% higher than currently forecast and that will reduce government borrowing somewhat. Osborne is going to find it easier to hit financial targets from here on. It should also mean that unemployment will at worse plateau and hopefully fall a little bit. If there is growth in the economy real wages will start to rise, hopefully faster than inflation.
As I said in my original post it will not all be good but the unrelenting gloom of 2010 to now will break up a bit and the government will look a little better as a result. Economics is personal and each voter will have their own experience. Those who voted for UKIP have very probably had the worst of this recession. I am hopeful that as a group their experiences will now start to improve.
I'm sorry David but you're dealing in superficialities rather than with the underlying more fundamental issues.
Talking abour improvments in economic indicators X and Y doesn't matter if it doesn't relate to your personally.
And to the UKIP crowd it wont.
The gains of any improved economic performance will be concentrated among the top 10% and especially among the top 1%.
This will make the UKIP crowd angrier.
If the government or media hail this improved economic performance "London house prices soar again" it will make the UKIP crowd even angrier.
And if this improved economic performance leads to even more economic migrants (which it would) it will make the UKIP crowd even angrier still.
It's rather confusing, for the last couple of years the PB Tories have been cheering on the removal of people from London, now they seem to have discovered that they have to live somewhere. I thought they were all in favour of the deficit reducing effects of coastal benefit ghettoes.
As for your Spain idea, I thought the posturing was against free movement of people now, although it doesn't seem to apply to Brits moving to Europe. Funny that.
Tim, they want them as far north as possible so they are out of sight as well as mind , the plan was not for them to remain down south. Another great plan went wrong.
I heard about this posh guy who went down to Hastings with a bunch of mates. Encountered a load of illegal immigrants. There was a massive punch up. Said posh boy ends up dead with an arrow in his eye. Where was UKIP then?
Tsk, Mr Jonathon - the Battle of Hastings happened nr Battle - and the castle was down the road from me at Pevensey. And what a fine place it is.
I can't help feeling that we're a pretty anti-EU bunch simply as a result of our jousting with Normans all those yrs ago ;^ )
Even in Europe's strongest economy, Germany, real wages are lower than at the start of the noughties.
Yougov suggests that UKIP supporters are actually a bit to the left of Conservative supporters on economic issues, although to the right of Labour supporters.
Agreed. It's complicated by the fact that many surburban marginals are in fact a mixture of urban areas, commuter towns and villages on the city edge. They vote entirely differently, giving candidates and parties a real challenge.
I should point out that Labour also has little to offer these areas. We are not going to get tuition fees abolished or environmental taxes cut in a Labour manifesto.
The proposed VAT cut will again cause hassle to shopkeepers and suck in imports, while pushing up borrowing. Far better to cut fuel taxes, and carbon taxes, so as to reduce peoples domestic bills this way, and make committing to work affordable. Cheap flights would also go down well with hard working families.
Economic growth and manufacturing thrive on cheap energy, whether Victorian Britain or post war USA. The Shale gas revolution has the potential to get the world out of its economic doldrums. It would require a major dumping of environmental targets.
I am pro-europe, and would vote to stay in the EU, but the dumping of green taxes is about the only UKIP policy that appeals to me.
That illustrates the political problem for suburban politicians (leaving aside for the moment what we believe to be right). Cutting fuel tax by enough to be noticeable would need to be balanced by raising other taxes significantly (unless you favour increasing the deficit, which I don't think you do) or finding big further cuts. In those suburban marginals that we're discussing, the villages would love the package and the urban areas (which tend to have good public transport and have lots of greenish people) would hate it. There's a reason why the Tory MPs in places like Brighton and Hove are very environmentally-friendly.
Any tax cut would temporarily increase the deficit, but ones to Green taxes would do most to stimulate real economic growth. I suspect the anti-green agenda is the local policy that UKIP councilors will do best with. Opposition to wind farms, increases in car park restrictions etc. The green agenda works in times of prosperity, but seems an expensive luxury in hard times.
I don't think the taxes on energy contribute to HMG revenue, they're just recycled to subsidise politically favoured producers.
Why did the Labour candidate wear a blue jackett? I believed all Labour women have a red tailleur for these occasions. The Tory woman is the most glamorous. Lady MacBenth rightfully at the centre of the stage.
If any of the big three parties were to end their support for the supposed global warming (which several years ago was meant to make this country have a Mediterranean climate but is somehow now responsible for prolonged rainy seasons and cold winters) and axe the greenist policies which push fuel bills up they'd still be able to catch the crest of the wave and gain significant popularity.
I'm not as critical of Cameron as most here, but one area where I disagree with him entirely (and where I think his belief his genuine rather than expedient) is that of green policies. We aren't building enough power stations, the support for wind is foolish and deliberately increasing fuel bills when the cost of living is a major issue is just not smart.
Focussing on reducing the cost of living for the less well paid is the key to the next election. The government has already reduced or eliminated their tax bill but this is not nearly enough on its own.
This means, like with the fuel duty escalator, many of the ramps created by the previous government that were designed to make transport and energy ever more expensive need to be dismantled. Finding the money for this will be very hard but it is the politically smart and morally right thing to do.
On Napoleon and luck: I can't comment much on the Corsican, but Alexander and Caesar both had tremendously good luck. Alexander survived getting shot in the lung with an arrow a few months (I think) before his death.
I have been going on about this for about a month now (if not as relentlessly as Avery) but I strongly believe now the economy has finally turned. There will be a lot more good news than bad coming down the track for the next 2 years changing perceptions of competence and everything else. We are getting there, don't let Labour ruin it again will be the cry and, however reluctantly, it will resonate with a lot of UKIPers.
Turned into what?
Lets look at this weeks PMI which are supposedly so magnificient
Manufacturing 49.8 Construction 49.4 Services 52.9
Compare them with those of March 2011:
Manufacturing 57.1 Construction 56.4 Services 57.1
Or those of January 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 51.4 Services 56.0
Or those of March 2012
Manufacturing 52.1 Construction 56.7 Services 55.3
Or those of August 2012
Manufacturing 49.5 Construction 49.0 Services 53.7
Doesn't suggest we're about to enter a new economic golden age does it ?
And we're still living over £100bn beyond our means so I'm not sure there is anything for Labour to ruin 'again'.
What I can predict with confidence though for the next two years is continuing government borrowing, a continual trade deficit, earnings increases for most being below inflation, an increasing wealth divide and more economic migrants.
I suspect those UKIP voters aren't going to be impressed by that.
Even if, no especially if, the media continues to boast about rising London house prices.
The PMIs are a snap shot and it is true that we have had false dawns before. I just think this time something more fundamental has changed. Q1 was the first growth figure to surprise on the upside for several years. Credit is starting to flow back into the housing market and SMEs. The banks are not fixed but less damaged. Taken together these factors should allow sustainable increases in aggregate private sector demand for the first time in 5 years. North sea oil is at the start of its largest investment program for a decade. Most of the brakes on growth have at least eased.
Does this mean the economy is sorted? Absolutely not. It does mean that I expect growth this year to be about 1% higher than currently forecast and that will reduce government borrowing somewhat. Osborne is going to find it easier to hit financial targets from here on. It should also mean that unemployment will at worse plateau and hopefully fall a little bit. If there is growth in the economy real wages will start to rise, hopefully faster than inflation.
As I said in my original post it will not all be good but the unrelenting gloom of 2010 to now will break up a bit and the government will look a little better as a result. Economics is personal and each voter will have their own experience. Those who voted for UKIP have very probably had the worst of this recession. I am hopeful that as a group their experiences will now start to improve.
DavidL, I agree with you the economy is in recovery mode and will pick up between now and the GE. It's just I don't think HMG has had much to do with the pickup, this recovery is despite Osborne not because of him.
We could argue about that all day. I think some government policies have helped, some have not and those that have helped really should have been done quicker.
But that is not the point. It does not matter if Osborne is a Napoleonic kind of Chancellor, lucky rather than good, or simply good. Either way, he inherited a total shambles and will deliver something better, if not great, at the next election. There is votes in that if the benefits are enjoyed by the CDs who have really been hurt by this recession and had a much smaller margin of error in the first place.
If the benefits simply flow to the better off then they will be thrashed and rightly so.
I think the problem with the Napoleonic theory is the luck struck once ( IHT ) and has been noticeably absent since. I would argue GO had a unique chance to take major steps at the beginning of his chancellorship when most of the country recognised the hole we were in and would have taken the medicine. He fluffed it, and has been on the backfoot ever since.
If this country had been ready to take its medicine Cameron would have had a comfortable majority. The reality is that a plurality were and still are in denial. That is what Osborne has to work with and it is not easy.
I share some of your frustrations and disappointments about this but I think you underestimate how hard the job was both economically and politically.
I still recall how Balls arguing very vociferously that £6bn in cuts would be the end of civilisation as we know it - Whitehall has chopped multiples of that and we haven't noticed.
It was a rounding error argument in 2010 and but the electorate just didn't grasp how much waste there was. 2020 hindsight is a great thing but they'd not have worn it at the ballot box if the truth was known.
That doesn't surprise me at all - I used to go to Hastings quite often in the mid 00s and since it's just gone from bad to worse.
It was the very sad seafront - all peeling paint and rusting railings that said everything, the shops have become even crummier, the local SeaLife shut down, the hotels empty, the residents grim and downtrodden.
It even had EU funding as a deprived area - WTF? It's in one of the wealthiest parts of the SE and a complete hole for no obvious reason bar what others have done to it. Crawley is a paradise in comparison.
The local MP had an interview in the FT recently:
“A lot of unemployed families were moved to Hastings and places were built for them. They’re communities of unemployed people. It’s been difficult dealing with that,” says Rudd, tucking her honey-blonde hair behind her ears as the train trundles through the stockbroker belt.
“You get people who are on benefits, who prefer to be on benefits by the seaside. They’re not moving down here to get a job, they’re moving down here to have easier access to friends and drugs and drink.”
I go to Hastings fairly often as I have relatives in St Leonard's. It is potentially a lovely town with some areas ripe for gentrification, but has some very seedy bits in the centre. My relative works for a charity for deprived children there, with no shortage of hard luck stories.
Probably the best way to improve the town would be to improve the road and rail links. It is painful getting there, and better transport would allow both commuting and business development there. It needs transport infrastructure more than anything.
One of many bits of Britain where investment in more modest rail schemes (such as reopening the Leicester Burton freight line to passengers) would be both greener and more economically useful than high profile white elephants like HS2.
Anyone remember the Michael Douglas film Falling Down ?
Where an ordinary suburban man goes on the rampage against the oppressions of modern society.
At the end when the cops have arrested him they ask Michael Douglas why he became a bad guy.
His response goes something like "Bad guy ??? I'm the good guy. I did everything the government told me to do. I went to college, I got a job, I worked hard, I served my country, I obeyed the law, I raised a family. And then they took it all away from me and gave it to them."
Expect more and more of this mentality as the state reneges on its promises over the next generation and inequality continues to grow.
Any tax cut would temporarily increase the deficit, but ones to Green taxes would do most to stimulate real economic growth. I suspect the anti-green agenda is the local policy that UKIP councilors will do best with. Opposition to wind farms, increases in car park restrictions etc. The green agenda works in times of prosperity, but seems an expensive luxury in hard times.
I certainly think this is going to be one area where UKIP will start to have an influence in those areas where they have councillors in sufficient numbers.
Lincolnshire is interesting as even before these results the council had been trying to introduce a ban on new wind farm developments and had been trying to enact this through a series of very restrictive measures which they hoped would effectively make any development untenable.
I can only see this opposition being strengthened by the new council. This is an interesting one because although the polls seem to show general support for wind farms - so that it is probably a vote winner at a national level - they show strong opposition at a local level which I suspect would make the council position far more popular.
I'm not as critical of Cameron as most here, but one area where I disagree with him entirely (and where I think his belief his genuine rather than expedient) is that of green policies. We aren't building enough power stations, the support for wind is foolish and deliberately increasing fuel bills when the cost of living is a major issue is just not smart.
I think this is where the criticism of the lack of diversity of the chumocracy rings true. Green taxes, and high speed rail are classic rich Londoner issues.
The Lib Dems did, more or less, hold onto their strongholds. The danger is that those strongholds become less strong if they can no longer challenge the other parties outside those strongholds, and they in turn can devote resources to attacking those strongholds.
The Lib Dems are simply experiencing a tough in their electoral fortunes. It happens to all parties. It just hadn't happened to them since their foundation. They will be back, perhaps in a different form. I think Clegg was right yesterday. The only thing the LDs have to worry about is that the activist base is now rather old. It needs a refresh.
Errr jonathan I'd hardly say the UKIP one is brimming with teenagers.
UKIP did not need any activists on Thursday , they only needed a name on the ballot paper with UKIP beside it to get 20 to 25 % of the vote .
Does it matter that UKIP beat the LDs in vote share?
No is the short answer , I have to go out now for a few hours . The Greens have beaten the Lib Dems before in vote share in a UK wide election as indeed have UKIP
Of course it matters if the LibDems would have less vote share in a GE. Or, at least, it matters if you have principles. Which you and your party have clearly abandoned. I know you're rattled Mark at your party's slump, but try and hold it together now.
On Napoleon and luck: I can't comment much on the Corsican, but Alexander and Caesar both had tremendously good luck. Alexander survived getting shot in the lung with an arrow a few months (I think) before his death.
the problem of course being Mr Dancer that Luck is a fickle mistress. One minute she's all over you and the next she's legged it with your worst enemy. The only consistently lucky politico I can think of in modern times is Blair. Whoever gave him his lucky star was more than generous.
Mr. Dave, is that a London/everywhere-else division, or a rich/not-rich division? The millionaire frontbenchers won't even notice a few hundred quid more on their energy bills, and they get to climb onto the moral high horse about climate change. For most people the increasing cost is pretty significant at a time when there's not that much money about.
Anyone remember the Michael Douglas film Falling Down ?
Where an ordinary suburban man goes on the rampage against the oppressions of modern society.
At the end when the cops have arrested him they ask Michael Douglas why he became a bad guy.
His response goes something like "Bad guy ??? I'm the good guy. I did everything the government told me to do. I went to college, I got a job, I worked hard, I served my country, I obeyed the law, I raised a family. And then they took it all away from me and gave it to them."
Expect more and more of this mentality as the state reneges on its promises over the next generation and inequality continues to grow.
Interesting point - I always think of One Night at McCools when his brother Utah appears... that is a cracking movie - can't believe its over a decade old.
I'm not as critical of Cameron as most here, but one area where I disagree with him entirely (and where I think his belief his genuine rather than expedient) is that of green policies. We aren't building enough power stations, the support for wind is foolish and deliberately increasing fuel bills when the cost of living is a major issue is just not smart.
I think this is where the criticism of the lack of diversity of the chumocracy rings true. Green taxes, and high speed rail are classic rich Londoner issues.
The high speed rail link gets people just rolling their eyes in frustrations at politicians 15 mins of a journey from London to Birmingham, who gives one. But the immense cost especially now seems idiotic. For gods sake build houses with the money instead. They did after the war, so get on with the job now and get people back to work.
I'm not as critical of Cameron as most here, but one area where I disagree with him entirely (and where I think his belief his genuine rather than expedient) is that of green policies. We aren't building enough power stations, the support for wind is foolish and deliberately increasing fuel bills when the cost of living is a major issue is just not smart.
I think this is where the criticism of the lack of diversity of the chumocracy rings true. Green taxes, and high speed rail are classic rich Londoner issues.
The high speed rail link gets people just rolling their eyes in frustrations at politicians 15 mins of a journey from London to Birmingham, who gives one. But the immense cost especially now seems idiotic. For gods sake build houses with the money instead. They did after the war, so get on with the job now and get people back to work.
Yup, waste of money. There are much better things it could be spent on.
@MorrisDancer There is a very famous scene when Mr Douglas snaps - he wants to buy breakfast but its 11:31 and the server won't allow it. It sums up petty-minded rule making.
I really have to laugh out loud at some of the comments trying to talk down and dismiss UKIPs election achievements.
After the shock; the dismissive talkdown.
The fact is that a small party, UKIP managed to elect 147 candidates where there were only 8 originally. Their vote share is on a par with the two main political parties.
Only two days ago the establishment was spitting in the face of UKIP voters. All those trying to belittle UKIP should wake up and smell the coffee. Times are a changing, live with it.
The high speed rail link gets people just rolling their eyes in frustrations at politicians 15 mins of a journey from London to Birmingham, who gives one. But the immense cost especially now seems idiotic. For gods sake build houses with the money instead. They did after the war, so get on with the job now and get people back to work.
I don't know the numbers involved so perhaps it would not be practical but I have often wondered if the money being spent on HS2 would not be better redirected to giving every house and business in Britain world class high speed fibre optic broadband.
It would serve far more people than HS2, would meet lots of those green targets by reducing the need for journeys to meetings and allowing many more people to work from home. It would also be a major infrastructure project to get all the new cabling laid and so would meet the government's targets in that way as well.
And of course politically it is a winner as no one area suffers the inconvenience and disruption whilst everyone benefits.
It's rather confusing, for the last couple of years the PB Tories have been cheering on the removal of people from London, now they seem to have discovered that they have to live somewhere. I thought they were all in favour of the deficit reducing effects of coastal benefit ghettoes.
As for your Spain idea, I thought the posturing was against free movement of people now, although it doesn't seem to apply to Brits moving to Europe. Funny that.
The coastal towns, from Hastings to Blackpool, have had major problems with unemployment and benefit dependency for generations. It is not due to coalition policies on housing benefit, which have only just been implemented.
We need to get these people back to work. Skegness is much like other coastal resorts, but just a few miles away we are told that crops would go unpicked without Poles and Portuguese in Boston. unemployed Brits could and should be picking those spuds, and we need to tackle the reasons why they do not. I want Britons to work harder and better than Poles, not sit in the pub drinking their benefits and complaining about Poles.
Miss Plato, I'd never even heard of that film. Very good scene (I also watched the beggar scene from the list on the right afterwards). In addition, Sheila's delightful.
The Shires will be even more unhappy if the coalitions relaxed planning rules mean more housing developments in their towns/villages.
I'm not really sure that's true. I live in a village and most people round here would accept more housing if was sensitively done. Instead of the usual execcy house sprawl which often gets attached to villages, if we get additions which blend in with the rest of the place no-one's that concerned. For villagers more people is often a benefit since it means the shop or school or church or pub or bus route all stay viable.
Well I've learned this morning that the PB Tories are in favour of moving people out of London but not in favour of them living on the coast.
Do you have any statistical evidence for this statement? Silly question, I know, but you have no evidence of having a life so I'm wondering if this is another fantasy you're living out...?
Just collected my winnings from Shadsy after getting over £200 on at an average of 9/4 on UKIP gaining over 100 seats... Wonder how they will get on in London..I reckon that a lot of Tory cllrs will be talking to UKIP about them standing in their wards or at least only putting 1 up against them..could be carnage otherwise..
Where do you stand on the Tolpuddle martyrs? Rural labourers only concerned about their own livelihood. No thought at all for the wider International ramifications. They eventually emigrated, didn't they?
Incidentally, I rang my brother in Boston. Normally a soft-ish Labour supporter, he voted UKIP this time. It must be some sort of outbreak over there. What next? Zombies?
Well I've learned this morning that the PB Tories are in favour of moving people out of London but not in favour of them living on the coast.
Do you have any statistical evidence for this statement? Silly question, I know, but you have no evidence of having a life so I'm wondering if this is another fantasy you're living out...?
that's unfair, tim lives in Liverpool - a coastal town dependent on benefits.
OGH now being re-tweeted by CCHQ Press Office: "Agreed. Lab should have more gains. In fact Ukip, CON and LDs all did better than expectations - LAB did worse"
I really have to laugh out loud at some of the comments trying to talk down and dismiss UKIPs election achievements.
After the shock; the dismissive talkdown.
The fact is that a small party, UKIP managed to elect 147 candidates where there were only 8 originally. Their vote share is on a par with the two main political parties.
Only two days ago the establishment was spitting in the face of UKIP voters. All those trying to belittle UKIP should wake up and smell the coffee. Times are a changing, live with it.
Recommended reading for those who can't cope with their previous supporters moving on...
@MorrisDancer - it was quite a cult film at the time - I really must say that One Night At McCool's is brilliant and very funny.
The scene when Mr Douglas' brother turns up is just perfect - I'm sure it's all on YouTube somewhere. Liv Tyler is dead sexy - IMO its her best movie by miles.
The high speed rail link gets people just rolling their eyes in frustrations at politicians 15 mins of a journey from London to Birmingham, who gives one. But the immense cost especially now seems idiotic. For gods sake build houses with the money instead. They did after the war, so get on with the job now and get people back to work.
I don't know the numbers involved so perhaps it would not be practical but I have often wondered if the money being spent on HS2 would not be better redirected to giving every house and business in Britain world class high speed fibre optic broadband.
It would serve far more people than HS2, would meet lots of those green targets by reducing the need for journeys to meetings and allowing many more people to work from home. It would also be a major infrastructure project to get all the new cabling laid and so would meet the government's targets in that way as well.
And of course politically it is a winner as no one area suffers the inconvenience and disruption whilst everyone benefits.
Richard with sensible suggestions like that no wonder people are looking beyond the 3 main established parties in England.
The Shires will be even more unhappy if the coalitions relaxed planning rules mean more housing developments in their towns/villages.
I'm not really sure that's true. I live in a village and most people round here would accept more housing if was sensitively done. Instead of the usual execcy house sprawl which often gets attached to villages, if we get additions which blend in with the rest of the place no-one's that concerned. For villagers more people is often a benefit since it means the shop or school or church or pub or bus route all stay viable.
Housing development is another UKIP scream issue as it increasingly consists of big expensive executive houses at one end or crap little flats (often with a social element for the 'undesirables') at the other. The two different types of 'people like them'.
How many good quality 3 bedroom semis with a nice garden are getting built for 'people like us' ?
Someone was ahead of the 2013 LE results by a year... Mr Skelton from Policy Exchange...
"A new poll for Policy Exchange shows that a gulf has opened up between politicians and the people. More than 80% of voters think that politicians don’t understand the real world at all. At a time of the biggest squeeze in living standards for decades, ordinary voters don’t believe that politicians understand their concerns. What is clear is that both parties are affected by the strong anti politics mood.
The stalemate at the last election showed that neither party managed to sufficiently empathise with or appeal to hard pressed voters. And our poll shows that the situation has got even worse for the political parties since the election. This presents a real challenge for both Labour and the Tories.
There’s good and bad news in the poll for Labour. The poll suggests that being seen as the party of the rich remains a major Achilles’ heel for the Tories, with 64% of voters thinking that the Conservatives stand for the rich rather than ordinary people. However, 28% of voters say the same about Labour – something that will probably concern Labour strategists...
Labour also has a larger pool of potential voters than the Tories. 35% of voters say they would never vote Tory, but only 24% of voters say they would never vote Labour. And that proportion is bigger in the North, where many of the battleground seats at the next election will be, with 39% of voters in the North saying that they would never consider voting Tory.
But the poll also has gloomy results for Labour. There’s evidence that Labour may be losing touch with their former voters. 53% of people say that labour used to care about them, compared with 33% who say that the Tories used to care about people like them. That proportion of people who say that Labour care about people like them now is only 30% – exactly the same as it is for the Tories." http://labourlist.org/2012/05/a-gulf-has-opened-up-between-politicians-and-the-people/
HS2 is planned not to get from A to B more quickly but to expand the capacity of the national railway network which will run out of capacity in the not too distant future on the major lines. Money has been spent to little effect to tweak the network. If you are going to build a new railway you might as well make it HS, it doesn't cost much more than standard speed. Of course I have sympathy for those who will be disturbed. Compensation should be very generous - I have read that the French compensate at twice market values.
That doesn't surprise me at all - I used to go to Hastings quite often in the mid 00s and since it's just gone from bad to worse.
It was the very sad seafront - all peeling paint and rusting railings that said everything, the shops have become even crummier, the local SeaLife shut down, the hotels empty, the residents grim and downtrodden.
It even had EU funding as a deprived area - WTF? It's in one of the wealthiest parts of the SE and a complete hole for no obvious reason bar what others have done to it. Crawley is a paradise in comparison.
The local MP had an interview in the FT recently:
“A lot of unemployed families were moved to Hastings and places were built for them. They’re communities of unemployed people. It’s been difficult dealing with that,” says Rudd, tucking her honey-blonde hair behind her ears as the train trundles through the stockbroker belt.
“You get people who are on benefits, who prefer to be on benefits by the seaside. They’re not moving down here to get a job, they’re moving down here to have easier access to friends and drugs and drink.”
Have you collected your wagered kiss from MikeL ??
If not have you decided on "French" or Glasgow" ??
Happily, Jack, the kiss was on offer as a bonus only if the Kippers got to 150. As you know, they only scored a 'Ronnie'(147), so I am spared the embarrassment.
Have you ever seen MikeK? I mean, I don't wish to be rude, but an oil painting he ain't.
Now if it had been you, Young Jack....
Are you saying that I'm 'ugly"? The girls don't think so. I looked for your address yesterday, but couldn't find it. So please send it to me, either direct or through Mike . A crisp £5 note is yours and I'll add on that kiss anyway: after all a 'Ronnie" is not to be sneezed at.
The Shires will be even more unhappy if the coalitions relaxed planning rules mean more housing developments in their towns/villages.
I'm not really sure that's true. I live in a village and most people round here would accept more housing if was sensitively done. Instead of the usual execcy house sprawl which often gets attached to villages, if we get additions which blend in with the rest of the place no-one's that concerned. For villagers more people is often a benefit since it means the shop or school or church or pub or bus route all stay viable.
Housing development is another UKIP scream issue as it increasingly consists of big expensive executive houses at one end or crap little flats (often with a social element for the 'undesirables') at the other. The two different types of 'people like them'.
How many good quality 3 bedroom semis with a nice garden are getting built for 'people like us' ?
the housing issue is quite complicated. I remember being told that one of the issues facing councils was that if a development was above a certain size then the developer had to pay for all the infrastructure ( roads, drains etc ) whereas below it and the bill went to the local authority. This was leading to more big estates rather than the smaller integrated approach most people would like to see.
Comments
Hastings is a very troubled town. The Constituency boundaries take in some very posh parts of the surrounding countryside. The Conservatives are only competitive because of their support in places like Rye and Winchilsea and surrounding villages.
Anyone trying to minimise what Kippers achieved yesterday is kidding themselves - congrats to all involved.
I'm not or ever have been a Kipper - but sympathise with some of their concerns. I predicted 100+ gains but the result was gobsmacking - that Glos, Cambs, ESx, Lincs and Kent either have them as official oppos or as potential pact partners is amazing.
I hope that they do a good job - it will be very hard if they haven't defected from another councillor post as they'll have little collective wisdom/experience to pull on.
It must be very exciting to be part of this - enjoy it :^ )
You said, "Whether he (Cameron) can do much about it is another matter. He, like Clegg, is prevented by the constraints of the coalition from directly addressing the concerns other than through pledges for the future."
I disagree. Clegg is in a panic mode as he sees a major part of his 2010 votes melt away. He is not supported by the majority of LD voters (see the polls) and is unable to control his ineffective Business Secretary - Cable. Clegg has become an ever more truculent baby, smiling in agreement with Cameron at a press conference and the next moment screaming that over his dead body that a certain policy will be enacted.
He has proved to be increasingly untrustworthy as a coalition partner as seen when his political projects fail and then refuses to support boundary equilisation and MP reduction.
As the LD policies are mainly contrary to public mood: viz, supporter of EU membership as it is, pro ECHR, pro immigration, pro taxes to subsidise green energy etc; then Cameron would not be in any danger if he continued with Merkel to reform the EU, said that the UK would not carry out a EU directive which disadvantages the UK (would only be copying the French), withdraws temporarily or permanently from the ECHR and exports immigrant terrorists and criminals.
If Clegg says he would withdraw his coalition support, then call his bluff and let him suffer the test of public opinion - probably many of his MPs would not go with him.
Arguing that those 12 miles along the A27 explains it all is vacuous nonsense. There are over dozen miles between the end of the dualled bit of the A27 and Eastbourne and Hastings has the A21 as a much better route to London.
" Lets just look at the results with a cool head. The Conservatives are topping the polls. Mid-term in challenging circumstances that is no mean feat. The results are truly disastrous for Labour – fighting it out with UKIP for second and third place with a vote share in the low 20 per cents is a truly appalling position for a party with any expectation of forming a Government. "
I don't know if Jackie Doyle-Price is a mendacious spinner peddling lies or just a thick cow who doesn't know what a national equivalent vote is or both.
But either way my view of the political class went another step lower.
Does this mean the economy is sorted? Absolutely not. It does mean that I expect growth this year to be about 1% higher than currently forecast and that will reduce government borrowing somewhat. Osborne is going to find it easier to hit financial targets from here on. It should also mean that unemployment will at worse plateau and hopefully fall a little bit. If there is growth in the economy real wages will start to rise, hopefully faster than inflation.
As I said in my original post it will not all be good but the unrelenting gloom of 2010 to now will break up a bit and the government will look a little better as a result. Economics is personal and each voter will have their own experience. Those who voted for UKIP have very probably had the worst of this recession. I am hopeful that as a group their experiences will now start to improve.
No doubt some UKIP County councillors will be awful, but the standard of comparison is not high.
" Agreed . This is why the Lib Dems will not form a coalition with Labour or the Conservatives whatever the result of the 2015 GE . Opposition is a necessary part of recovery "
I agree Mark.
However do you really believe that the Lid Dem leadership would turn down cabinet positions if offered in 2015.
Most probably they will continue that momentum in the 2014 EUROs, but during that time will they be able to co-ordinate as a political party and agree common purpose and policies (and a manifesto) so that they can build towards fighting every English seat in 2015?
Also will they be able to control their less PR experienced members and candidates so that they do not provide easy headlines for the Sun and Mail? Other political parties have attempted and failed to complete such tasks in such a short time scale.
I daresay the same thing could have happened in any town or city in the UK; it's just the only time I've ever come across a victim of what appeared to be a serious assault. And the time of day was odd as well - mid-morning, before the pubs are open.
http://www.economist.com/node/17095644 The mistruths spewed by upper-middle-class champagne-socialists does not mask the guilt that they feel for their own mismanagement, no siree! It exemplifies their contempt for those who call England their home.
That doesn't surprise me at all - I used to go to Hastings quite often in the mid 00s and since it's just gone from bad to worse.
It was the very sad seafront - all peeling paint and rusting railings that said everything, the shops have become even crummier, the local SeaLife shut down, the hotels empty, the residents grim and downtrodden.
It even had EU funding as a deprived area - WTF? It's in one of the wealthiest parts of the SE and a complete hole for no obvious reason bar what others have done to it. Crawley is a paradise in comparison.
this was the message being pushed out by UKIP overnight in their email newsletter. Certainly looks to me like the get the basics as far as they have always been set out on here about a councillor base.
"1.25 million votes across the country – more than at the last General Election
UKIP won 154 Council seats (including 6 at District/Unitary by-elections)
Average of 24.6% of the vote where we stood
17 County Council seats in Kent, 16 in Lincolnshire, 12 in Cambridgeshire, 9 in Essex
UKIP will become the ‘official opposition’ or hold the balance of power on a number of Councils
The Eastern Counties (26.2%) and South East (26.1%) were UKIP’s top two performing regions.
878 UKIP candidates finished in second place
776 UKIP candidates took more than 25% of the vote
In wards where UKIP and the Lib Dems went head to head, UKIP took over 300,000 votes more than the Lib Dems
In wards where UKIP and Labour went head to head, UKIP took almost 200,000 votes more than Labour
UKIP finishes ahead of the Conservatives in almost 500 seats across the country
UKIP took the most votes across at least 2 Parliamentary constituencies (Great Yarmouth and Boston & Skegness), possibly more.
The next few months will be a critical time for us. Every single one of our new councillors will be in the spotlight, whether in terms of media interest or more likely because voters will want to see what UKIP councillors are able to achieve in their area. It’s worth noting that Pete Reeve was re-elected in Ramsey on 67% of the vote. That shows just how much difference one hard-working councillor can make to the level of UKIP support in their local area. Having a new councillor base will give us opportunities to be more active, supporting local residents. If our councillors are ambassadors for the Party, if they show that they care about the communities that they represent and if they work and vote on behalf of local residents rather than party politics, then people will be convinced that we offer something different.
There is a reason why parties very rarely gain seats at Westminster without first winning Council seats. By winning so many Council seats, we have done two things: firstly, we have removed the ‘wasted vote’ argument. Secondly, we have created a realistic prospect of taking seats at a General Election. May 2nd 2013 was one of the best nights in the Party’s history. The huge question is this: can we build upon Thursday's success to achieve even more in 2014 and 2015?"
But that is not the point. It does not matter if Osborne is a Napoleonic kind of Chancellor, lucky rather than good, or simply good. Either way, he inherited a total shambles and will deliver something better, if not great, at the next election. There is votes in that if the benefits are enjoyed by the CDs who have really been hurt by this recession and had a much smaller margin of error in the first place.
If the benefits simply flow to the better off then they will be thrashed and rightly so.
We're in for a generation of low growth / economic stagnation. For many people this has been happening since 2000 but was initially hidden by increased household borrowing and rising house prices.
But within this overall trend the 'winners' of globalisation will continue to prosper and wealth divides increase.
Which is very damaging for a Conservative party with a privileged leadership.
I do suspect there's an increasing economic fairness rationale behind UKIP support. The sense that there's one rule for 'them' and another rule for 'us' and that the government is on the side of 'them'.
Examples being "the government bailed out the banks but let the factory I worked at shut down" and the tax avoidance of multinationals compared with the endless admin small business endure and get punished for not getting right.
The work done by Margaret Hodge with the Public Affairs committee into this area is underestimated in its political effect.
Congrats Mr Tyndall - you've poked a lot of the political Establishment in the eye with a big pointy stick. It needed doing and the Kippers have scored big time.
“A lot of unemployed families were moved to Hastings and places were built for them. They’re communities of unemployed people. It’s been difficult dealing with that,” says Rudd, tucking her honey-blonde hair behind her ears as the train trundles through the stockbroker belt.
“You get people who are on benefits, who prefer to be on benefits by the seaside. They’re not moving down here to get a job, they’re moving down here to have easier access to friends and drugs and drink.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/97b6f7e6-ad46-11e2-b27f-00144feabdc0.html
Thanks for that - I merely point out the bleeding obvious as a local resident very familiar with the town - tsk, what do I know...
I would love to be able to claim I was really in any way responsible even for a tiny part of this result but as you know I have a dislike bordering on loathing for all political parties, even the ones I support. My input has always been very fringe and limited to providing research based hard data and spreading the anti-EU message as widely as possible. For better or worse UKIP have managed this breakthrough without my assistance.
Nice to see the political classes all stirred up though even if only for a while.
Thankfully it ain't going to happen.
Do you think he would have done better with UKIP logo next to his name?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_Liberal_Democrat_MPs_(2010–)
I share some of your frustrations and disappointments about this but I think you underestimate how hard the job was both economically and politically.
LOL me too it annoys me when people claim credit for something they haven't done. Still it helped me decide not to vote blue for about the first time in 30 years. Great success as Borat would say.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/10029144/If-an-energy-crisis-hits-it-will-be-the-companies-that-will-get-shot.html
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/05/23/draft_energy_bill_wtf/
Talking abour improvments in economic indicators X and Y doesn't matter if it doesn't relate to your personally.
And to the UKIP crowd it wont.
The gains of any improved economic performance will be concentrated among the top 10% and especially among the top 1%.
This will make the UKIP crowd angrier.
If the government or media hail this improved economic performance "London house prices soar again" it will make the UKIP crowd even angrier.
And if this improved economic performance leads to even more economic migrants (which it would) it will make the UKIP crowd even angrier still.
The UKIP vote was a scream against globalisation.
And globalisation isn't going to stop.
I can't help feeling that we're a pretty anti-EU bunch simply as a result of our jousting with Normans all those yrs ago ;^ )
Yougov suggests that UKIP supporters are actually a bit to the left of Conservative supporters on economic issues, although to the right of Labour supporters.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bg1YetdKx2k
Why did the Labour candidate wear a blue jackett? I believed all Labour women have a red tailleur for these occasions.
The Tory woman is the most glamorous. Lady MacBenth rightfully at the centre of the stage.
If any of the big three parties were to end their support for the supposed global warming (which several years ago was meant to make this country have a Mediterranean climate but is somehow now responsible for prolonged rainy seasons and cold winters) and axe the greenist policies which push fuel bills up they'd still be able to catch the crest of the wave and gain significant popularity.
I'm not as critical of Cameron as most here, but one area where I disagree with him entirely (and where I think his belief his genuine rather than expedient) is that of green policies. We aren't building enough power stations, the support for wind is foolish and deliberately increasing fuel bills when the cost of living is a major issue is just not smart.
Why do you think Labour's results were so disappointing yesterday?
Ed,the blank piece of paper or the wrong type of voters?
This means, like with the fuel duty escalator, many of the ramps created by the previous government that were designed to make transport and energy ever more expensive need to be dismantled. Finding the money for this will be very hard but it is the politically smart and morally right thing to do.
It was a rounding error argument in 2010 and but the electorate just didn't grasp how much waste there was. 2020 hindsight is a great thing but they'd not have worn it at the ballot box if the truth was known.
Probably the best way to improve the town would be to improve the road and rail links. It is painful getting there, and better transport would allow both commuting and business development there. It needs transport infrastructure more than anything.
One of many bits of Britain where investment in more modest rail schemes (such as reopening the Leicester Burton freight line to passengers) would be both greener and more economically useful than high profile white elephants like HS2.
Where an ordinary suburban man goes on the rampage against the oppressions of modern society.
At the end when the cops have arrested him they ask Michael Douglas why he became a bad guy.
His response goes something like "Bad guy ??? I'm the good guy. I did everything the government told me to do. I went to college, I got a job, I worked hard, I served my country, I obeyed the law, I raised a family. And then they took it all away from me and gave it to them."
Expect more and more of this mentality as the state reneges on its promises over the next generation and inequality continues to grow.
Lincolnshire is interesting as even before these results the council had been trying to introduce a ban on new wind farm developments and had been trying to enact this through a series of very restrictive measures which they hoped would effectively make any development untenable.
I can only see this opposition being strengthened by the new council. This is an interesting one because although the polls seem to show general support for wind farms - so that it is probably a vote winner at a national level - they show strong opposition at a local level which I suspect would make the council position far more popular.
Another is between the underclass and taxpayers of the UK, and the payer/recipient nations of the EU.
But the immense cost especially now seems idiotic.
For gods sake build houses with the money instead.
They did after the war, so get on with the job now and get people back to work.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eREiQhBDIk
After the shock; the dismissive talkdown.
The fact is that a small party, UKIP managed to elect 147 candidates where there were only 8 originally. Their vote share is on a par with the two main political parties.
Only two days ago the establishment was spitting in the face of UKIP voters. All those trying to belittle UKIP should wake up and smell the coffee. Times are a changing, live with it.
It would serve far more people than HS2, would meet lots of those green targets by reducing the need for journeys to meetings and allowing many more people to work from home. It would also be a major infrastructure project to get all the new cabling laid and so would meet the government's targets in that way as well.
And of course politically it is a winner as no one area suffers the inconvenience and disruption whilst everyone benefits.
Michael Douglas encounters the corporate world in Falling Down.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSCXwfuYrC8
We need to get these people back to work. Skegness is much like other coastal resorts, but just a few miles away we are told that crops would go unpicked without Poles and Portuguese in Boston. unemployed Brits could and should be picking those spuds, and we need to tackle the reasons why they do not. I want Britons to work harder and better than Poles, not sit in the pub drinking their benefits and complaining about Poles.
Wonder how they will get on in London..I reckon that a lot of Tory cllrs will be talking to UKIP about them standing in their wards or at least only putting 1 up against them..could be carnage otherwise..
Where do you stand on the Tolpuddle martyrs? Rural labourers only concerned about their own livelihood. No thought at all for the wider International ramifications. They eventually emigrated, didn't they?
Incidentally, I rang my brother in Boston. Normally a soft-ish Labour supporter, he voted UKIP this time. It must be some sort of outbreak over there. What next? Zombies?
That'll be a no then.
Farage will be laughing in his beer.
Recommended reading for those who can't cope with their previous supporters moving on...
http://www.recover-from-grief.com/7-stages-of-grief.html
The scene when Mr Douglas' brother turns up is just perfect - I'm sure it's all on YouTube somewhere. Liv Tyler is dead sexy - IMO its her best movie by miles.
How many good quality 3 bedroom semis with a nice garden are getting built for 'people like us' ?
"A new poll for Policy Exchange shows that a gulf has opened up between politicians and the people. More than 80% of voters think that politicians don’t understand the real world at all. At a time of the biggest squeeze in living standards for decades, ordinary voters don’t believe that politicians understand their concerns. What is clear is that both parties are affected by the strong anti politics mood.
The stalemate at the last election showed that neither party managed to sufficiently empathise with or appeal to hard pressed voters. And our poll shows that the situation has got even worse for the political parties since the election. This presents a real challenge for both Labour and the Tories.
There’s good and bad news in the poll for Labour. The poll suggests that being seen as the party of the rich remains a major Achilles’ heel for the Tories, with 64% of voters thinking that the Conservatives stand for the rich rather than ordinary people. However, 28% of voters say the same about Labour – something that will probably concern Labour strategists...
Labour also has a larger pool of potential voters than the Tories. 35% of voters say they would never vote Tory, but only 24% of voters say they would never vote Labour. And that proportion is bigger in the North, where many of the battleground seats at the next election will be, with 39% of voters in the North saying that they would never consider voting Tory.
But the poll also has gloomy results for Labour. There’s evidence that Labour may be losing touch with their former voters. 53% of people say that labour used to care about them, compared with 33% who say that the Tories used to care about people like them. That proportion of people who say that Labour care about people like them now is only 30% – exactly the same as it is for the Tories." http://labourlist.org/2012/05/a-gulf-has-opened-up-between-politicians-and-the-people/
Of course I have sympathy for those who will be disturbed. Compensation should be very generous - I have read that the French compensate at twice market values.
http://youtu.be/d0LeL9BUPtA
Are you saying that I'm 'ugly"? The girls don't think so.
I looked for your address yesterday, but couldn't find it. So please send it to me, either direct or through Mike . A crisp £5 note is yours and I'll add on that kiss anyway: after all a 'Ronnie" is not to be sneezed at.