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Some very sage advice on reacting to the MRPs – politicalbetting.com
Some very sage advice on reacting to the MRPs – politicalbetting.com
? Ok, here we go, @IpsosUK MRP using our online probability KnowledgePanel – only one of its kind this #GE20241. What's a probability panel? We select addresses randomly across the country and invite people to join. No one can join without being invited. https://t.co/OFNW4Cvzqg
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Rishi Sunak reacts to mega-rich Jim Ratcliffe and John Caldwell backing Labour
He tells @LBC "They can probably afford Labour's tax rises."
https://x.com/ryansabey/status/1803324558163755479
Round up of creeps and nutters standing for Reform. Really quite something
And gosh that pic of KCIII at Troopy colz. I greatly fear he will not see 2025.
Was she a presenter or an MP or none of those things?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5FEJxMDetek
Will enough people who might have voted for these candidates hear about this and change their vote in disgust to matter or is it just white noise in the election?
A reminder from 2017 and 2019 that YouGov's MRPs became less accurate the closer we got to election day as they understated the Tories.
Amusing to the observer, cutting to the target and aligned with this political message
Gave the LibDems a going over, too.
The King does not look well. It would be ironic if he waited many years for the top job only to get it for a short time.
They all need to be subject to scrutiny.
Exclusive:
Defence minister says the PM could have gone further on tax cuts and ECHR in the manifesto.
Leo Docherty tells @Stefan_Boscia and me that “loads” of people in his seat are supporting Reform which could impact politics in a "revolutionary way"
politico.eu/newsletter/lon…
https://x.com/estwebber/status/1803332006803087849?s=46
Remarkable how parties do this repeatedly. They lose to an opposition on the other wing of politics, sometimes badly. And in response they decide that what the electorate really wanted was their wing of politics, only more so.
Then 2 or 3 elections later the penny half drops.
..As the modelling makes use of a national survey, caution should be taken when looking at individual seats. While MRP is good at taking into account the different demographic profiles of each constituency, with relatively few respondents per constituency, it is unlikely to be able to capture the full local context, especially where there are unique political dynamics. In order to aid this, we have prompted with all candidate names, where known, in 20 constituencies, mainly where there are high profile candidates outside the main traditional parties. These were Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, Alloa and Grangemouth, Ashfield, Boston and Skegness, Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Chingford and Woodford Green, Clacton, Clwyd East, Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy, Great Yarmouth, Islington North, Leicester East, Lothian East, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, North Herefordshire, North West Leicestershire, Rochdale, Solihull West and Shirley, Waveney Valley...
That sometimes happens in seats, but I struggle to believe it will be very common - perhaps particularly at this election. This view is partly based on people as a whole not being too bad at judging the tactical position and tending to talk to each other and move as a flock - there can be sufficient uncertainty to prevent that, but it's fairly unusual. It's also due to the fact on the ground that there are relatively few areas where all parties are going at it hammer and tongs - there's very little overlap in the LD and Labour target lists, and HQs are steering campaigners (and particularly candidates) pretty heavily away from non-targets. Sure, there are a handful of exceptions to this and it's not true to say campaigns are doing nothing at all in non-targets - just not enough in this election to muddy the waters that much. Meanwhile RefUK are mainly fighting an air-war - it's patchy on the ground, again with a couple of exceptions.
It might be that the concern evens out on the averages - that the MRP seat totals are in the right ballpark even if the splits in individual seats aren't. It's just that the figures make me uncomfortable at that level - they are projecting something at the individual seat level that I would be very surprised to see in reality.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24396536.scottish-labour-suspend-candidate-pro-russian-social-media-post/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0vvjzw5ejno
https://x.com/OwenWntr/status/1803116579397177578
There are multiple flaws with that study and the conclusion it found. Obviously it's not a double blind study so risks finding correlation rather than causation which is a problem in this era when the medical advice for too long has been that higher carbs are healthier (when my contention is they're not) so you end up with an ice cream sales cause shark attacks conclusion by comparing people who take other, sound, medical advice with those who don't.
Furthermore the conclusion is horribly flawed by making a fundamental category error. It compares non-obese people on a low-carb diet with non-obese people on a higher-carb diet. That's fundamentally flawed as going onto a low-carb diet is a cure for obesity for those who have struggled with it.
Compare non-obese people on a low-carb diet with obese people on a high-carb diet and check the numbers again.
YouGov polls recently have caused quite a big odds shift compared to other polls - seems they get higher cut through? . Sky News, the Telegraph etc all publish them prominently.
But we haven’t had an MRP from them since 24 May - 1 June fieldwork!
If they are still bullish on Reform, and consequently likely down on the Tories, this could be where we see their Crossover on a YouGov MRP, and the cut through on socials could be seismic.
Imagine how many retweets an MRP that says ‘19 Tory MPs’ or similar would produce. Watch also for effects on similar bets, like on the Lib Dems.
Again, I’m not saying that I think this will happen on July 4th necessarily - but very worth monitoring the potential odds shift.
"The survey data Ipsos has used for this model was collected via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Panellists are recruited using random probability unclustered address-based sampling, the gold-standard in UK survey research, meaning that every household in the UK has a known chance of being selected to join the panel. Crucially, members of the public who are digitally excluded are given a tablet and provided with an email address. Ipsos interviewed 19,689 adults aged 18+, residing in Great Britain. Data collection took place between 7-12 June 2024, using the standard Ipsos voting intention and likelihood to vote question wording. This will be the first UK election when any voting intention data collected via a probability panel has been published, and this MRP is the first model of this type using probability data."
I have questions about this. I went looking for answers.
Ipsos claim an average survey completion rate of 60-70% (from their panel). This sounds really high compared to the participation rates typically quoted for opinion polls (of about 1-2%). However, I can't find where they say what proportion of people invited to join the panel take up the invitation. I did find some details from the US, where the overall response rate is 3.6%.
So... that is better than 1-2%, but it's still so low that I have issues with calling the sample random. To a very large extent it is a self-selecting sample. Ipsos are clearly working very hard to get hold of a better sample, and I commend them for their efforts to get closer to a random sample, but the numbers show what a hard challenge this is.
At least they are not adding to all the worthless promises every time the interviewer thinks up a new tax.
They need to message well (and they have been so good at that this election) and tie Starmer to being untrustworthy and two-faced.
He will tell you this when he needs to and tell you the opposite when he needs to.
We won’t raise taxes, we won’t raise taxes on working people, well we won’t raise taxes on any working people who haven’t been sensible and saved.
I think Corbyn should be PM/ I think Corbyn was terrible.
I was DPP and I put away bad terrorists/ I was DPP but nothing to do with me bad people didn’t get prosecuted.
They need to depict him as a Janus with a statement he’s made out of one side and the flip flop out the other, or a pledge this election one side and a question mark the other side.
Can you trust anything he’s offering you? There is enough ammunition out there to make people disillusioned with him.
When the Police beat up protestors while he was POTUS he responded by marching down to support it.
He's a fascist.
See the 2015 general election as a reminder.
It's a free country, so ignore the evidence if you like.
The tactical voting websites are getting shared more than ever because of social media’s evolution. AND unlike in 2017/2019 it’s much easier to switch between the Lib Dems and Labour, or the Tories and the Lib Dems and not be put off by their leader, or their Brexit stance. So we haven’t had a chance to see the tactical effect on this scale at a previous election.
Couple the above with things like REFUK actually standing in Tory seats this time…
2024 will be known as the tactical voting election and IMO we will therefore see things like the Lib Dems vastly outperforming expectations with translating % vote share into seats.
I note Dewsbury & Batley is a comfortable Labour win with the Greens on 11% and Others on 1%.
Firstly, the relative weighting of Greens and Others. Various others have history particularly in Batley & Spen, and given who is standing, I think the high Green vote is more likely to head to the Independent.
Secondly, given Gaza remains salient, I don't think the 49% Independents suddenly managed in the locals simply dissipates and I do think Labour is in for a fight from the left both here and in perhaps a dozen or more other places (and maybe a handful, like neighbouring Spen Valley, where the Lab/Con balance is tilted and Labour victories are smaller than anticipated). I'm not naive enough to believe the read across from local
elections is total, but nor do I think the
Independent challenge dissipates for a GE
like the local Ind in a Tory shire invariably
does.
I think the error bars on Ipsos's MRP likely give an answer here. The top figure given for Green is 20%, the top figure for Others is 3%. Well, 23% for the Independent does feel like a decent ballpark guess to me.
So Farage will never without qualification criticise any aspect of Trump or Trumpian behaviour, and is silent on western liberal society's greatest enemies. He is a little Italy to mighty Soviet and German might.
But the problem with 14 years in power is it describes not just an improvement, but also the disaster that came before. Sunak has failed to differentiate himself Johnson and Truss and that, along with record immigration, is why the polls are where they are.
https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1803336337216389234
When Rishi Sunak says he aims to halve inflation, British voters think he aims to get... (7 June)
Prices to decrease 47%
Prices to increase more slowly 42%
Don't know 11%
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/06/11/deflating-rishi-sunak/
NEW Survation Telephone Tracker for @GMB - Poll 2/4:
CON 20% (-3)
LAB 41% (-)
LD 12% (+2)
REF 15% (+3)
GRE 6% (-)
SNP 2% (-1)
OTH 5% (+1)
F/w 14th - 18th June. Changes vs. 12th June 2024.
Oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them.
Seriously I suspect it’s lethal for the organs and pretty terrible for the body long term.
BR is correct about low fat diets and the dangers. But the problem isn’t complex carbohydrates. It’s sugars. Obviously carbs convert to glycogen but that’s not bad.
Personally? It’s a fairly crazy fad that will eventually be shown to cause serious long term damage. By then it will be too late for some.
Higher wages and lower prices
Higher government spending and lower taxes
Its almost enough to make me feel sympathetic towards politicians.
Was the 37% YouGov an outlier? Or correct?
Perhaps a slight tendency to select out Tories if that example is repeated?
Refined carbs are pretty clearly bad for you; the story on carbs in general is quite different.
Starmer records his biggest ever lead on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister.
Rishi Sunak: 27% (-)
Keir Starmer: 44% (+2)
Don’t know: 29% (-2)
Party leaders’ trust on the economy:
Rishi Sunak: 33% (-2)
Keir Starmer: 40% (+2)
Don’t know: 27% (-)
As has often been discussed on PB the above two are very important for elections and perhaps suggests the big Labour leads are here to stay.
Last year I paid back almost £4k yet my loan balance increased - and I took at the minimum loans. With any luck my anger may be eased by seeing the Tories demolished, hopefully down to 3rd or 4th place in a few weeks, 1 seat is more than they deserve.
Fascism he says had a coherent ideology, albeit a bonkers one. The supremacy of the volk, the all powerful state and the need for war and conquest as a proof of the virility of the nation. That is true of Putin's Russia but I'm not sure it chimes with Trump's vision for America.
The traditional authoritarians have a coherent ideology: family, church, traditional values. Enforced with a rod of iron but different from Fascism. True of US evangelicals, but is it true of Trump? Probably not either.
Then he describes the post-war dictators, focusing on former colonies but equally relevant to the West these days. No coherent ideology except self-enrichment or protection of clan and tribe. Patronage. That feels more like Trump. A post-colonial populist.
[**https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v2.full**](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v2.full)
Not seen this convincingly debunked. Even if wrong it is a masterclass on how to interrogate statistics.
So the 8pp deficit in this opinion poll would be the smallest since Dec 1910 (2.4pp behind) if it came to pass.
Sunak -39% (-8)
Starmer -10% (+2)
Davey -15% (+1)
Farage -24% (+9)
https://x.com/Survation/status/1803335113964404891
Doesn't really chime with the polls dropping for Labour.
His projects to remake the civil service; to send the national guard into states to round up immigrants for deportation; desire to control the media; to prosecute political opponents etc are moves in an authoritarian direction.
He's personally disorganised, but that doesn't mean he is without fascistic tendencies.
And then in 2021 many were talking about ten years of Johnson at his peak.
So whilst I am not prepared to say for definite Labour will be in for a decade, it does not appear at the moment they will want to understand why they've lost so many voters. More right wing politics is not what centre-ground voters in the south are looking for, including and especially voters of working age. We want house building, competence and action on how expensive everything is.
The Tories seem to think we're thick and that the ECHR is really the problem. I am telling them right now, nobody cares about this.
Labour are not that good - but the Tories are making them look amazing with this nonsense they are putting out. There is still time to about turn and go back to the centre. But the music is not good, so far.
As an aside, hearing Partners on £700k/pa moaning about tax when all my income over £50k is taxed at a higher marginal rate that their income between £150-700k makes me want to come home and use a Tory 2010 intake photo as a dartboard. Zero seats! Zero seats! Zero seats!
Another drop in VI for the Tories with Survation-on-the-blower, 44 polls since a like for like increase and counting......
The MRP tonight will be interesting, especially given the 140 seat one was modelled on 25% share of the vote
NEW Survation Telephone Tracker for
@GMB
- Poll 2/4:
CON 20% (-3)
LAB 41% (-)
LD 12% (+2)
REF 15% (+3)
GRE 6% (-)
SNP 2% (-1)
OTH 5% (+1)
F/w 14th - 18th June. Changes vs. 12th June 2024.
https://x.com/Survation/status/1803335103982027126
*A capital L seems appropriate given that we're talking about neo-fascism.
This means they are losing votes in the centre and on the right at the same time. They can't simply go back to the centre. Voters in the centre aren't listening, and they'd lose more voters on the right.
They do have an ideological problem with a lack of coherence. They will need to create a coherent story into which everything they say can fit together, and they haven't had that since they gave up on levelling up and taking advantage of Brexit.
But there's a difference between communities with high average life expectancies and 'super-centenarian' records.
I quite like the list posted by @MrBedfordshire FPT , who I assume lives in a first floor flat because the Ground Floor cannot apply there. I would not quarrel with some of those.
And £60bn is a number in the rough ballpark we need, and they do target wealth which is also correct. Part of that may I hope be savings due to falling interest rates etc. One hopes part of that number will be savings as interest rates fall.