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Ipsos MRP has the Tories on 115 seats – politicalbetting.com

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  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    https://x.com/sundersays/status/1803170037273907553

    This is the second constituency poll of the campaign, both for The Economist. Both the Hartlepool and the Gillingham constituency polls suggest the polls and MRPs are being significantly too generous to the Conservatives.

    It has been going through my mind that they may be over-compensating for shy tories this time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,545
    Labour has suspended one of its candidates after reports he shared "pro-Russian" material online.

    Andy Brown, who is standing in Aberdeen North and Moray East, also shared a post that appeared to downplay allegations of antisemitism against Labour, as first reported by the Press and Journal.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0vvjzw5ejno
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,226
    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Well I’ve heard that too: that Hunt is going to be well beaten. I’m just up the road in Woking.

    However, he is campaigning very hard. And maybe the MRP knows differently.
    How would the MRP, based on regression analysis and demographics, know how well Hunt is campaigning?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,752
    rcs1000 said:

    Wait.

    Isn't that the constituency that @RochdalePioneers is standing in?
    Actually maybe not.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited June 2024
    IanB2 said:

    How would the MRP, based on regression analysis and demographics, know how well Hunt is campaigning?
    I’ll take your question as genuine Ian, rather than pointlessly snide. So, the conjunction ‘And’ was adding information.

    He is campaigning very hard and the MRP may know differently.

    The former is my local knowledge: he really is putting in one hell of an effort. He’s also talking up his chances e.g.
    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/jeremy-hunt-says-seat-could-29366573

    At least, unlike Dominic Raab and Michael Gove, he didn’t run away when facing defeat. He might yet pull this off.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,674
    Harold Wilson Leads Labour into Election Battle (1970)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWZX3OwIzZo

    ITN has just released this 8-minute video from the 1970 campaign. The Chancellor referred to by Mr Heath is Roy Jenkins. To modern eyes, it is remarkable how much time is spent on industrial relations.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,140
    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Well I’ve heard that too: that Hunt is going to be well beaten. I’m just up the road in Woking.

    However, he is campaigning very hard. And maybe the MRP knows differently.
    I think there are several blue wall constituencies that are within 1000 votes. So, with low turnout, several 10s of seats might have only three figure majorities. That could be the difference between the Tories at 130 or 90 seats. I don't think the Tories can rely on their traditional support coming out for them. So, squeaky bum time at CCHQ.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,674
    rcs1000 said:

    Actually maybe not.
    You were right first time: @RochdalePioneers doxxed himself as the LibDem candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,843

    You were right first time: @RochdalePioneers doxxed himself as the LibDem candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
    Just spotted that story on TV this morning. So many controversies in rural Scotland!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,843
    Cicero said:

    I think there are several blue wall constituencies that are within 1000 votes. So, with low turnout, several 10s of seats might have only three figure majorities. That could be the difference between the Tories at 130 or 90 seats. I don't think the Tories can rely on their traditional support coming out for them. So, squeaky bum time at CCHQ.
    Adds to anecdotal evidence that the Tory core is wavering, with previous strong loyalists starting to look at other parties (or, at least, the option of sitting on their hands and waiting for the party to become more palatable again.)

    These MRPs do seem to be predicting implausible looking RefUK eruptions (e.g. NW Leics and, in a previous example, Exmouth,) and it does look as if this one is underestimating the extent of Liberal Democrat gains. In a scenario where a wretchedly unpopular Conservative Party is being swept away, there's no particular reason to suppose that dozens of Southern Tory MPs will miraculously survive the trend just because the instruments of their defenestration are wearing yellow rosettes.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,568

    Tbh the whole Ratcliffe endorsement looks unhelpful. In the modern parlance, he is saying the quiet bit out loud.
    You have to tax the rich. The poor don't have any money 👿
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited June 2024
    IanB2 said:

    It’s a serious point, building on the discussion yesterday. If there are some unusual demographic shifts affecting a particular seat, the MRP forecast for it might be a useful pointer, but it cannot help at all with local factors such as the candidates and campaigning. Far too much reliance is being placed on the constituency data coming out of MRP because it is attractive and easy to use, but it is not a seat-specific poll, but a national model, and wont necessarily be accurate for any specific locality.
    Yes indeed Ian. Apologies if I queried whether your question was for real. It’s not always easy to pick up intention and nuance on a forum!

    You and I both cut and pasted that very warning from Alex at IPSOS-MORI ref their MRP yesterday. It’s probably worth repeating it again:

    Of course you're all sensible people and wouldn't put too much weight on individual seat estimates because you know modelling can't take into account all the complexities of local campaigns. I trust you all.

    https://x.com/_AlexBogdan/status/1803124726673363044

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,021
    Good morning, everyone.

    BBC news front page has a baseball player dying as the fourth biggest story. That might be true. In America.

    Apparently it's more important than the SNP manifesto.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited June 2024
    pigeon said:

    Adds to anecdotal evidence that the Tory core is wavering, with previous strong loyalists starting to look at other parties (or, at least, the option of sitting on their hands and waiting for the party to become more palatable again.)

    These MRPs do seem to be predicting implausible looking RefUK eruptions (e.g. NW Leics and, in a previous example, Exmouth,) and it does look as if this one is underestimating the extent of Liberal Democrat gains. In a scenario where a wretchedly unpopular Conservative Party is being swept away, there's no particular reason to suppose that dozens of Southern Tory MPs will miraculously survive the trend just because the instruments of their defenestration are wearing yellow rosettes.
    I completely agree ref. the LibDems especially.

    However, the caveat to myself is that the LibDems always seem to underwhelm on the day in General Elections. Or is that a little unfair?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,545

    Good morning, everyone.

    BBC news front page has a baseball player dying as the fourth biggest story. That might be true. In America.

    Apparently it's more important than the SNP manifesto.

    What no Taylor Swift story on the front page...The overnight editors are obsessed with celeb nonsense.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,612
    edited June 2024

    These new anti-obesity wonder drugs should help with this, and indirectly with diabetes (currently rocketing) as well as cancer.
    There seem to be general (possibly anti-inflammatory) beneficial effects with them which go beyond what you'd expect solely from weight loss.
    We need a few years' more data to be sure, though.

    In terms of financial cost/benefit, NICE will be all over the stats in the next few years as data accumulates. I would expect them to save the NHS a lot of money over time, even though long term prescriptions are quite expensive.

    The interesting question is how quickly that net benefit would materialise.

    Once generic, the savings would be immense. But that's well beyond the next government.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Also, as I’ve awoken in a conciliar mood I want to apologise to you @Leon for being pretty acerbic. I think you can be a complete arse a lot of the time on here, and staggeringly abusive, all of which is possibly play-acting, but I was reading your backstory and it seems that in amongst all the shenanigans you’ve had a pretty rough ride on the Hyperia of life. Keep the wheels rolling.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,674

    Good morning, everyone.

    BBC news front page has a baseball player dying as the fourth biggest story. That might be true. In America.

    Apparently it's more important than the SNP manifesto.

    As I've complained before, BBC News is staffed overnight and at weekends by newbies who slavishly follow American channels.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Nigelb said:

    There seem to be general (possibly anti-inflammatory) beneficial effects with them which go beyond what you'd expect solely from weight loss.
    We need a few years' more data to be sure, though.

    In terms of financial cost/benefit, NICE will be all over the stats in the next few years as data accumulates. I would expect them to save the NHS a lot of money over time, even though long term prescriptions are quite expensive.

    The interesting question is how quickly that net benefit would materialise.

    Once generic, the savings would be immense. But that's well beyond the next government.
    @DecrepiterJohnL

    I thought medics are just starting to ring alarm bells? Just this week for example:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/13/top-doctor-warns-against-using-anti-obesity-drugs-to-get-beach-body-ready

    Personally I think if anything sounds too good to be true it usually is.

    There are no short cuts. Exercise and healthy diet are the safest route to longer life.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    The latest edition of The News Agents podcast has an interesting discussion with former Sun editor David Yelland.

    Murdoch's Sun newspaper backing used to be 'a moment' in every UK general election campaign.

    Famously backing Blair in 97. Switching allegiance to Cameron over Brown in 2010.

    But this time around we have heard practically nothing. Is that because Murdoch hasn't made his mind up? Or because the enthusiasm for either candidate simply isn't there? Or is it a recognition that the power newspapers wield on the voter is waning?

    We speak to former Sun editor David Yelland, host of When it Hits The Fan about the role old and new media plays in politics now. And whether the Murdoch clan themselves may be moving on...

    Later, is Boris Johnson a help or a hindrance as he tries to endorse individual Tory candidates.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lv36A04cXIw

    Among other things: newspaper readers are old; fears the Murdoch clan might sell their British newspapers; the Sun might back Labour but they are leaving it very late and there is no policy alignment; papers are already fighting the next election.

    I wonder also if it’s residual grudge against Starmer as DPP.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,226
    Heathener said:

    Yes indeed Ian. Apologies if I queried whether your question was for real. It’s not always easy to pick up intention and nuance on a forum!

    You and I both cut and pasted that very warning from Alex at IPSOS-MORI ref their MRP yesterday. It’s probably worth repeating it again:

    Of course you're all sensible people and wouldn't put too much weight on individual seat estimates because you know modelling can't take into account all the complexities of local campaigns. I trust you all.

    https://x.com/_AlexBogdan/status/1803124726673363044

    Some of the people behind these various tactical voting sites don’t seem to understand this, which is of some concern.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,831
    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Well I’ve heard that too: that Hunt is going to be well beaten. I’m just up the road in Woking.

    However, he is campaigning very hard. And maybe the MRP knows differently.
    How are you in Woking *and* Newton Abbot Heathener?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited June 2024
    Horrendous situation in Makkah (Mecca). At least 550 dead:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/18/hundreds-of-hajj-pilgrims-die-in-mecca-from-heat-related-illness

    On a lesser scale, there have been a series of deaths from heatstroke in southern Europe, including of course Michael Mosley.

    I nearly keeled over in 42C once. It’s horrible.

    Is the planet reaching a tipping point?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    How are you in Woking *and* Newton Abbot Heathener?
    Split
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited June 2024

    How are you in Woking *and* Newton Abbot Heathener?
    Joking aside, I’m mostly in Surrey this month hence my almost total lack of knowledge about what’s going on back home. I genuinely haven’t a clue whether to vote Labour or LibDem to try and remove the sitting tory. I have a postal vote down there.

    Woking was down as a knife-edge on MRP but I’m extremely sceptical of that. Picking up the mood music I’d say it’s a very solid LibDem gain, as it was during the council elections.

    (p.s. easy to pop into London from here when I need to. Less so from Teignmouth.)
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Roughly at the two-thirds point now, aren’t we?

    I’m sure I can’t be alone in wishing the poll was tomorrow. The 4th of July feels impossibly distant.

    Rishi seems to be under lock and key now as well, replaced by the word ‘TAX’ which I think is probably better for the cons, albeit not an election-winning strategy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,226
    Ghedebrav said:

    Roughly at the two-thirds point now, aren’t we?

    I’m sure I can’t be alone in wishing the poll was tomorrow. The 4th of July feels impossibly distant.

    Rishi seems to be under lock and key now as well, replaced by the word ‘TAX’ which I think is probably better for the cons, albeit not an election-winning strategy.

    For postal voters, the votes are mostly delivered now, so for them the opportunity to vote has arrived.

    The rest of us have two more weeks to wait and can only focus on getting our popcorn orders in early.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Heathener said:

    Horrendous situation in Makkah (Mecca). At least 550 dead:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/18/hundreds-of-hajj-pilgrims-die-in-mecca-from-heat-related-illness

    On a lesser scale, there have been a series of deaths from heatstroke in southern Europe, including of course Michael Mosley.

    I nearly keeled over in 42C once. It’s horrible.

    Is the planet reaching a tipping point?

    It is incredibly grim and reflective of climate change.

    However the Saudi government’s venal, extortionate charges for making the Hajj have resulted in pilgrims from poorer countries resorting to illegal methods, with Hajjis following these routes being crammed into coaches and having to reach Mecca on foot, thus increasing their sun exposure and also adding crowd pressure.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,674
    Ghedebrav said:

    I wonder also if it’s residual grudge against Starmer as DPP.
    Yes, that is one factor they discuss. Starmer as DPP during the phone hacking charges upset a lot of journalists including former Sun editor and current News UK boss Rebekah Brooks.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,831
    Heathener said:

    I completely agree ref. the LibDems especially.

    However, the caveat to myself is that the LibDems always seem to underwhelm on the day in General Elections. Or is that a little unfair?
    Even if the LibDems are only campaigning in about 150 seats, I’d still be looking for their projected vote to uptick towards 15% to make say 50 seats. However that would be a normal election with most of the vote split between Lab and Con. That isn’t what we’re going to get. It seems plausible that huge numbers of seats will be won with a share of 35-40%. That’s a different to usual and maybe it could help the Lib Dems in the south.

    My seat of South Shropshire could be one to watch. It’s a vast area and we have the former LibDem MP standing, Labour are campaigning (they don’t usually bother), the Tory has fled from his old seat in Wolverhampton and Reform are an unknown quantity (it’s not obvious territory for them). The LibDems have been doing well in council bye-elections in the weakest part of the seat for them, that’s the East around Bridgnorth, they usually do well in the south and west anyway. We’ve got a couple of new wards added in the north which should be good for the Tories.

    In this perfect storm of an election the Tory is beatable but it needs the opposition vote to coalesce one way or the other. I’m not sure it will. My judgement is that the LibDems could win the seat and are therefore the tactical vote. But Best for Britain are advising Labour - which feels wrongheaded to me.

    I could easily see something like Con 37, Lib Dem 29, Labour 20, RefUK 10, Green 4. But it’s unfathomable.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    edited June 2024
    After that Twitter thread yesterday about “Labour is going to turn us all woke and children will be forced to become non-binary vegans”, this, I think, is a much more likely summary of the way Starmer will go:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/18/macron-consultants-lobbyists-starmer-labour-

    “Of Labour’s prospective parliamentary candidates, 35 are current or former corporate lobbyists, consultants or work in public affairs.”

    “… the core base of his politics is managers, lawyers and assorted technocrats. That these candidates’ political projects are mainly popular among affluent professionals helps explain why they are so open to capture by the class of professional lobbyists.”


    It’s not capture by “woke ideology” we need to worry about. That would imply some short of vision. It’s the stultifying mediocrity of the managerial class. Think Emmanuel Macron as reinterpreted by David Brent.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    IanB2 said:

    For postal voters, the votes are mostly delivered now, so for them the opportunity to vote has arrived.

    The rest of us have two more weeks to wait and can only focus on getting our popcorn orders in early.
    I think I’ve only done postal vote once, out of necessity. I enjoy the ritual (only slightly sullied now by the ludicrous ID rules) of going to the station and the booth; my polling place is pleasingly a bowling pavilion.

    But yes - popcorn at the ready. I have booked the fifth off as leave.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,674
    Heathener said:

    @DecrepiterJohnL

    I thought medics are just starting to ring alarm bells? Just this week for example:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/13/top-doctor-warns-against-using-anti-obesity-drugs-to-get-beach-body-ready

    Personally I think if anything sounds too good to be true it usually is.

    There are no short cuts. Exercise and healthy diet are the safest route to longer life.
    Yes, although aiui the problems came mainly from stronger doses than are routinely prescribed here.
  • FffsFffs Posts: 76
    viewcode said:

    You have to tax the rich. The poor don't have any money 👿
    Surely the point is that if you create genuine wealth (enough of) the poor will be able to get jobs that take them out of poverty?

    (Pretty much by definition - otherwise you've not created genuine, ie broad-based, wealth.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,044

    The latest edition of The News Agents podcast has an interesting discussion with former Sun editor David Yelland.

    Murdoch's Sun newspaper backing used to be 'a moment' in every UK general election campaign.

    Famously backing Blair in 97. Switching allegiance to Cameron over Brown in 2010.

    But this time around we have heard practically nothing. Is that because Murdoch hasn't made his mind up? Or because the enthusiasm for either candidate simply isn't there? Or is it a recognition that the power newspapers wield on the voter is waning?

    We speak to former Sun editor David Yelland, host of When it Hits The Fan about the role old and new media plays in politics now. And whether the Murdoch clan themselves may be moving on...

    Later, is Boris Johnson a help or a hindrance as he tries to endorse individual Tory candidates.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lv36A04cXIw

    Among other things: newspaper readers are old; fears the Murdoch clan might sell their British newspapers; the Sun might back Labour but they are leaving it very late and there is no policy alignment; papers are already fighting the next election.

    Or because The Sun doesn't really matter anymore?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    After that Twitter thread yesterday about “Labour is going to turn us all woke and children will be forced to become non-binary vegans”, this, I think, is a much more likely summary of the way Starmer will go:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/18/macron-consultants-lobbyists-starmer-labour-

    “Of Labour’s prospective parliamentary candidates, 35 are current or former corporate lobbyists, consultants or work in public affairs.”

    “… the core base of his politics is managers, lawyers and assorted technocrats. That these candidates’ political projects are mainly popular among affluent professionals helps explain why they are so open to capture by the class of professional lobbyists.”


    It’s not capture by “woke ideology” we need to worry about. That would imply some short of vision. It’s the stultifying mediocrity of the managerial class. Think Emmanuel Macron as reinterpreted by David Brent.

    35 out of 600-odd doesn’t sound like that many tbh.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,674

    After that Twitter thread yesterday about “Labour is going to turn us all woke and children will be forced to become non-binary vegans”, this, I think, is a much more likely summary of the way Starmer will go:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/18/macron-consultants-lobbyists-starmer-labour-

    “Of Labour’s prospective parliamentary candidates, 35 are current or former corporate lobbyists, consultants or work in public affairs.”

    “… the core base of his politics is managers, lawyers and assorted technocrats. That these candidates’ political projects are mainly popular among affluent professionals helps explain why they are so open to capture by the class of professional lobbyists.”


    It’s not capture by “woke ideology” we need to worry about. That would imply some short of vision. It’s the stultifying mediocrity of the managerial class. Think Emmanuel Macron as reinterpreted by David Brent.

    An influx of professionals might pose problems for Starmer if they are fast-tracked into government ahead of longstanding MPs, or if they are not and are left to rot on the backbenches.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,044
    edited June 2024
    UK dropped off in 2008, and never recovered. Eurozone was never really there to start with.

    What explains that? And what are the Americans getting right that no-one in Europe is?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,679
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting fact: at the 1983 election the Labour vote fell most heavily in their weakest areas, and held up best in their strongest seats, which is the opposite of what might have been expected. That's why they managed to hold 209 seats (out of 260) despite their vote share dropping by nearly 10% to 27.6%.

    That's the flip side of their historically inefficient voting patterns. They are much less vulnerable to core losses.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,679
    IanB2 said:

    For postal voters, the votes are mostly delivered now, so for them the opportunity to vote has arrived.

    The rest of us have two more weeks to wait and can only focus on getting our popcorn orders in early.
    We are still waiting for ours in Cambridge.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,052
    edited June 2024
    mwadams said:

    We are still waiting for ours in Cambridge.
    No sign of mine either. There is a chance it doesn't arrive in time before I go away, so I'm trying to work out if I can swap it for a proxy.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,751

    You were right first time: @RochdalePioneers doxxed himself as the LibDem candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
    I know TP is not standing this time, but are any other PBers standing at this GE? I wonder if anyone has anybody kept quiet about their name being on a candidate list?

    (Which is their prerogative, tbf).
  • Heathener said:

    @DecrepiterJohnL

    I thought medics are just starting to ring alarm bells? Just this week for example:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/13/top-doctor-warns-against-using-anti-obesity-drugs-to-get-beach-body-ready

    Personally I think if anything sounds too good to be true it usually is.

    There are no short cuts. Exercise and healthy diet are the safest route to longer life.
    The problem is what is a healthy diet?

    For too long our advice has been the completely failed food pyramid and five fruit and veg a day etc which has seen a surge in obesity and suits some people but not others. And the selling of low fat foods as being healthy alternatives.

    When in fact for many people's bodies cutting out carbs not fats is far healthier. I've made no secret of the fact I'm on a carnivore ketogenic diet, eating zero fruit and veg a day. Done this for seven months now and am 47 lbs down and counting. Blood healthy, resting heart rate healthy. And able to exercise more too now I'm not carrying around that excess weight anymore. All around in a much, much healthier state.

    People need to be more open minded as to what a healthy diet is.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,572

    Or because The Sun doesn't really matter anymore?
    Which will also be a thing that makes Rupert sad.

    The dilemma for The Sun is that their choice is to back Starmer (who they don't like) or to back a loser (which they will hate). The Mail, ghastly and mad as it is, at least has the integrity to go down all guns blazing.

    Oh well, never mind.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,538

    UK dropped off in 2008, and never recovered. Eurozone was never really there to start with.

    What explains that? And what are the Americans getting right that no-one in Europe is?
    It’s an interesting one. I look at my own productivity and consider ways to improve it but it always seems to be tinkering around the edges really.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited June 2024
    Eabhal said:

    YouGov MRP out at 5pm BST.

    I’m very interested in this one. 2 weeks out is supposed to be peak accuracy I believe?

    But will it be based on that 37% poll of the other day?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,538
    Heathener said:

    I’m very interested in this one. 2 weeks out is supposed to be peak accuracy I believe?

    But will it be based on that 37% poll of the other day?
    I’m only interested if there’s liberal use of fire and/or chilli pepper emojis.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    mwadams said:

    We are still waiting for ours in Cambridge.
    Yep mine is said to be ‘around the 21st June’ and then it needs to be forwarded to me here although I may go back and collect it in person.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,831

    Which will also be a thing that makes Rupert sad.

    The dilemma for The Sun is that their choice is to back Starmer (who they don't like) or to back a loser (which they will hate). The Mail, ghastly and mad as it is, at least has the integrity to go down all guns blazing.

    Oh well, never mind.
    Starmer should have the balls to tell the Murdochs to punt it this time.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,040
    edited June 2024

    We don't live in an autarky. Potatoes and bread can be imported.
    They can, unless there is a global food deficit and food exporting countries ban exports to ensure their own populations are fed. India suspended food exports for a while in 2022, for example.

    Supporting domestic food production is insurance against the global trade in food collapsing.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,040
    What's interesting there is that most of the difference emerges at two points in time - the Great Financial Crash and Covid. In both cases average productivity in the US increases, while in Europe/UK it dips the first time. It suggests we are doing recessions all wrong in Europe.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,044

    The problem is what is a healthy diet?

    For too long our advice has been the completely failed food pyramid and five fruit and veg a day etc which has seen a surge in obesity and suits some people but not others. And the selling of low fat foods as being healthy alternatives.

    When in fact for many people's bodies cutting out carbs not fats is far healthier. I've made no secret of the fact I'm on a carnivore ketogenic diet, eating zero fruit and veg a day. Done this for seven months now and am 47 lbs down and counting. Blood healthy, resting heart rate healthy. And able to exercise more too now I'm not carrying around that excess weight anymore. All around in a much, much healthier state.

    People need to be more open minded as to what a healthy diet is.
    I just found out that my imploration against a vegan-only lunch at an industry event on "sustainability", hosted by KPMG, was totally ignored. Despite being on the governing committee.

    I was on holiday at the time, so couldn't attend and only saw the output report on Monday, where that was slipped in. Ideology wins again.

    I suspected as much. The person organising it was a fanatic - also against cars - wasn't shy of sharing her left-wing politics and, at the same time, was very interested in a wider group of people coming along than the usual suspects so they could "learn something".

    Physician: heal thyself.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,022
    edited June 2024
    Hmmm.

    I wonder what prompted this email to all MSPs? 🤔

    Planning to travel abroad this Summer?
    If you are travelling abroad this summer and
    intend to use your device while not connected to
    Wi-Fi, you must let the IT Helpdesk know
    (86100) so that an appropriate roaming bundle
    can be applied. MSP staff and Parliament staff
    require authorisation prior to requesting a
    bundle.

    Please note that this includes European
    destinations which are no longer covered under
    domestic tariffs. A spend cap of £60 will be
    applied to your device, you will receive text
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    and again when you are approaching your limit.


    https://x.com/paulhutcheon/status/1803000375059927226?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw==&refsrc=email
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,674

    What's interesting there is that most of the difference emerges at two points in time - the Great Financial Crash and Covid. In both cases average productivity in the US increases, while in Europe/UK it dips the first time. It suggests we are doing recessions all wrong in Europe.
    Productivity, you say? And does the TUC in this brief video
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XQwHLKlwjCM

    As for the rest, austerity was not the answer!
  • Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company after its share price climbed to an all-time high on Tuesday.

    Not a bubble at all. No Sirree.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,022

    Not a bubble at all. No Sirree.
    Something's definitely artificial there, but it's not the intelligence of the buyers.
  • Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company after its share price climbed to an all-time high on Tuesday.

    Not a bubble at all. No Sirree.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Finally some good news for Sunak on the inflation front .

  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 489
    If populism is the answer, what is the problem? I think the problem is alienation (in the marxist sense of the word - not the existential). Ganesh in the FT is absolutely right that there are no economic similarities across countries driving populism. And this is important, because there are real dangers to the left in offering the wrong sollution to the problem.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a1bf2553-d454-465c-8629-34b24b568d57?accessToken=zwAGGziYRIHokdOhvyVT1FRGXNOGKTSyS1aNVw.MEYCIQCkRENl6sHH33AkbQzDlqfEYFVG4tzuAKWMg8AoLo9OcQIhAI0zzlf50LhaFIwkjCn9xka_eu9zh-QlD-cdtSlpMUBu&sharetype=gift&token=784e52f4-e23a-4336-a80f-e0cc8fdfb8dd

    If you look at british populism. For all their professed love of country they spend all their time hating it: they hate the bbc, the other countries in the union, they hate the banks, the liberal entertainment elite like Gary Linaker, they hate the life guards, all the other parties, they hate young people, they hate foreigners. The country that they love so is a figment, an imaginary. Even the past they love so is a toxic reconstruction to attack the present they hate so. Everything is set up as enemies.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/24/woke-blobs-final-triumph-near/

    Marx has this terrific analysis of alienation that begins in work. First, you are alienated from the product of your labour.... what you make belongs to somebody else, then you are alienated from the process of work, when you become an addition to a productive process, third is the alienation of the individual self from your local environment and community (this leads to hedonistic consumption in spare time and distraction from the absurdity of life). In the fourth form of alienation parts of society split off and see other as enemies.


    "We are thus led to the fourth aspect, alienation from other people, or from society. Once the traditional community (which understood itself as natural) is broken down, human beings become essentially potentially useful or threatening objects. One can now have enemies in a new sense."

    I think this is exactly where we are

    https://www.yorku.ca/horowitz/courses/lectures/35_marx_alienation.html

    The main lesson here is that populism is a far more profound phenomenon than can be solved by mere redistributive economic strategies.

    (Probably some of you will clutch at your pearls for doing a marxist analysis hahahahaha)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,040
    Ghedebrav said:

    Roughly at the two-thirds point now, aren’t we?

    I’m sure I can’t be alone in wishing the poll was tomorrow. The 4th of July feels impossibly distant.

    Rishi seems to be under lock and key now as well, replaced by the word ‘TAX’ which I think is probably better for the cons, albeit not an election-winning strategy.

    43 days and 5 hours from election announcement to exit poll. Two-thirds is 28 days 19 hours and 20 minutes in, which is tomorrow, at 12:20.

    Almost there...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,573
    edited June 2024

    They can, unless there is a global food deficit and food exporting countries ban exports to ensure their own populations are fed. India suspended food exports for a while in 2022, for example.

    Supporting domestic food production is insurance against the global trade in food collapsing.
    And if domestic food collapses due to a blight or local drought?

    Being comparatively wealthy is a far better insurance. It means that we can pay more than poor countries so we get access to food (or whatever else we need) first and they don't.

    Which considering we don't produce anywhere near enough for ourselves is far better insurance.

    Being poor but able to rely upon locally produced potatoes didn't help the Irish when the famine hit.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,044
    DavidL said:

    The US has had far more investment than either the UK or the EU, both public and private. They also have more efficient capital markets to facilitate that investment. The UK and most of the EU has been focusing on maintaining current expenditure ahead of that investment and we are paying the price.

    Investors in the US are also much more interested in growth whilst our markets are interested in dividends to fund pensions or incomes. A company like Amazon was able to consistently tap the market for more capital despite not paying any dividends year after year after year as it grew to one of the largest companies in the world transforming efficiency in its sector. The reinvestment of profits allowed far greater automation and productivity gains.

    I do think that there are opportunities for catch up in both the UK and EU but it is going to require significantly different government policies and priorities. None of the parties seem to be offering these in the current election.
    OK, but why were we OK at that pre-2008?

    I agree but I'm fairly sure our capital investment challenge stretches back decades.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,142

    If populism is the answer, what is the problem? I think the problem is alienation (in the marxist sense of the word - not the existential). Ganesh in the FT is absolutely right that there are no economic similarities across countries driving populism. And this is important, because there are real dangers to the left in offering the wrong sollution to the problem.

    https://www.ft.com/content/a1bf2553-d454-465c-8629-34b24b568d57?accessToken=zwAGGziYRIHokdOhvyVT1FRGXNOGKTSyS1aNVw.MEYCIQCkRENl6sHH33AkbQzDlqfEYFVG4tzuAKWMg8AoLo9OcQIhAI0zzlf50LhaFIwkjCn9xka_eu9zh-QlD-cdtSlpMUBu&sharetype=gift&token=784e52f4-e23a-4336-a80f-e0cc8fdfb8dd

    If you look at british populism. For all their professed love of country they spend all their time hating it: they hate the bbc, the other countries in the union, they hate the banks, the liberal entertainment elite like Gary Linaker, they hate the life guards, all the other parties, they hate young people, they hate foreigners. The country that they love so is a figment, an imaginary. Even the past they love so is a toxic reconstruction to attack the present they hate so. Everything is set up as enemies.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/05/24/woke-blobs-final-triumph-near/

    Marx has this terrific analysis of alienation that begins in work. First, you are alienated from the product of your labour.... what you make belongs to somebody else, then you are alienated from the process of work, when you become an addition to a productive process, third is the alienation of the individual self from your local environment and community (this leads to hedonistic consumption in spare time and distraction from the absurdity of life). In the fourth form of alienation parts of society split off and see other as enemies.


    "We are thus led to the fourth aspect, alienation from other people, or from society. Once the traditional community (which understood itself as natural) is broken down, human beings become essentially potentially useful or threatening objects. One can now have enemies in a new sense."

    I think this is exactly where we are

    https://www.yorku.ca/horowitz/courses/lectures/35_marx_alienation.html

    The main lesson here is that populism is a far more profound phenomenon than can be solved by mere redistributive economic strategies.

    (Probably some of you will clutch at your pearls for doing a marxist analysis hahahahaha)

    Not at all. Marxist economics was mainly crap (there was some good stuff on labour economics) but Marxist sociology is genuinely fascinating and gives real insight into how society actually operates, even today.

    We find the probability that Trump is going to be re-elected utterly bewildering. The alienation of so many who are not getting to share the fruits of the US productivity boom we were talking about a few posts ago is the closest I have seen to an explanation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,044

    What's interesting there is that most of the difference emerges at two points in time - the Great Financial Crash and Covid. In both cases average productivity in the US increases, while in Europe/UK it dips the first time. It suggests we are doing recessions all wrong in Europe.
    One thing: the US blows everyone out every time that happens. Job losses. Housing losses. The works. No mercy.

    In Europe we protect them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,142
    edited June 2024
    nico679 said:

    Finally some good news for Sunak on the inflation front .

    I suspect that this is temporary but it is indeed very overdue good news for him. The downside is that he will start talking about his plan again and how its working. That never ends well.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,332

    The problem is what is a healthy diet?

    For too long our advice has been the completely failed food pyramid and five fruit and veg a day etc which has seen a surge in obesity and suits some people but not others. And the selling of low fat foods as being healthy alternatives.

    When in fact for many people's bodies cutting out carbs not fats is far healthier. I've made no secret of the fact I'm on a carnivore ketogenic diet, eating zero fruit and veg a day. Done this for seven months now and am 47 lbs down and counting. Blood healthy, resting heart rate healthy. And able to exercise more too now I'm not carrying around that excess weight anymore. All around in a much, much healthier state.

    People need to be more open minded as to what a healthy diet is.
    I think you are being a bit simplistic. Simple carbs like sugar, white pasta, and refined grains are of poor nutritional value, but complex carbohydrates such as wholegrain, legumes, fruits, vegetables etc contain a wealth of fibre and micronutrients. As they are slower to breakdown in the gut they do not cause the same insulin spike and are better for gut flora*. Variety in diet matters a lot.

    The massive NHANES study showed the risks of a low carb diet in the long term:

    https://www.escardio.org/The-ESC/Press-Office/Press-releases/Low-carbohydrate-diets-are-unsafe-and-should-be-avoided

    * I think the distinction between simple and complex carbs goes a long way to explain the UPF effect.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 489
    DavidL said:

    Not at all. Marxist economics was mainly crap (there was some good stuff on labour economics) but Marxist sociology is genuinely fascinating and gives real insight into how society actually operates, even today.

    We find the probability that Trump is going to be re-elected utterly bewildering. The alienation of so many who are not getting to share the fruits of the US productivity boom we were talking about a few posts ago is the closest I have seen to an explanation.
    The reason trump is going to get reelected is that the Biden style statist economic drive doesn't answer the question that populism poses: how to help people feel like they belong and that participatory activity is meaningful.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,040

    And if domestic food collapses due to a blight or local drought?

    Being comparatively wealthy is a far better insurance. It means that we can pay more than poor countries so we get access to food (or whatever else we need) first and they don't.

    Which considering we don't produce anywhere near enough for ourselves is far better insurance.

    Being poor but able to rely upon locally produced potatoes didn't help the Irish when the famine hit.
    I'm not arguing against a global trade in food. I'm arguing in favour of ensuring that domestic food production is supported. If most domestically produced food is exported, and we import most of what we eat that doesn't much concern me - at least we still have the domestic food production to fall back on in the worst case scenario, and in the worst-case scenario countries will not sell their food at any price. Countries will not inflict famine on their domestic populations by exporting food except in very special circumstances (such as in Ukraine/Ireland, when the domestic population was a colonised one).
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    Good piece here on Bicester & Woodstock, one of the LibDem targets round here and where the Conservatives have put up George Osborne’s former adviser Rupert Harrison.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/19/a-fair-electoral-wind-could-help-the-lib-dems-blow-down-england-blue-wall

    Calum Miller, the LD candidate, is worth watching as a potential future party leader. You heard it here first.
  • ydoethur said:

    Something's definitely artificial there, but it's not the intelligence of the buyers.
    "Financial disasters are forgotten and the next speculative episode is driven by a new generation extremely confident in the new next innovation in finance or the world."

    A Short History of Financial Euphoria

    John Kenneth Galbraith

    Meanwhile. "Ferguson’s Law states that any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defense will not stay great for very long. True of Hapsburg Spain, true of ancien régime France, true of the Ottoman Empire, true of the British Empire. -Niall Ferguson"

    And lo, guess what, US interest payments and defence spending crossover:

    https://x.com/SoberLook/status/1803006741447139601?t=Vtw2lhMQFir31Py3Cxp2QQ&s=19
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,643

    Survival rates for prostate, bowel, breast and cervical cancer are only just reaching levels that other nations achieved in the early 2000s, according to the most recent figures available.

    Experts at Macmillan Cancer Support, which produced the analysis, warned that survival rates were “stuck in the noughties”, trailing decades behind countries such as Denmark and Norway.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/19/uk-cancer-care-is-20-years-behind-europe/

    Is this another function of the fact the UK population is just far less healthy than some other parts of Europe, same with COVID deaths early on. Being a fatty was very bad for COVID, it can't be good for surviving cancer either.

    I am starting to question why the NHS is judged on length of waiting lists, rather than health outcomes.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,040

    One thing: the US blows everyone out every time that happens. Job losses. Housing losses. The works. No mercy.

    In Europe we protect them.
    I don't know whether the difference is that less productive companies are more likely to go bust in the US, or that companies are more likely to get rid of less productive workers/parts of their company. But it does look like it is Schumpterian creative destruction at play.

    The ideal is that we help individuals to get through this process, while allowing the companies to go through it (because companies don't have children, etc). But I think that European countries have perhaps chosen to support unproductive companies so that the employees don't ever become the state's responsibility to look after (temporarily).
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,826

    I am starting to question why the NHS is judged on length of waiting lists, rather than health outcomes.
    Because health outcomes depend on how healthy a population is (or at least its one big factor of it) and its not the NHS fault that people are fat or smoke or drink to much .
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    Hah!

    The inflation is down to 2%!

    On target!!

    Has this won it for Rishi???
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,612
    Heathener said:

    @DecrepiterJohnL

    I thought medics are just starting to ring alarm bells? Just this week for example:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/13/top-doctor-warns-against-using-anti-obesity-drugs-to-get-beach-body-ready

    Personally I think if anything sounds too good to be true it usually is.

    There are no short cuts. Exercise and healthy diet are the safest route to longer life.
    That, I think, is to misunderstand the nature of these medicines.
    Of course the ideal is to be perfectly healthy without medical intervention - but for probably the majority of the population, that's simply not reality. If it were. the NHS wouldn't be a problem.

    The chance is that these drugs will be like statins or blood pressure medications (but with considerably greater benefit), prescribed to a large percentage of the population on a long term basis.
    Though of course there's also the possibility that long term use will throw up unwanted side effects.

    It's not going to help Wes Streeting much over the next couple of years, though. He ought to concentrate more on public health investment.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,364
    DavidL said:

    The US has had far more investment than either the UK or the EU, both public and private. They also have more efficient capital markets to facilitate that investment. The UK and most of the EU has been focusing on maintaining current expenditure ahead of that investment and we are paying the price.

    Investors in the US are also much more interested in growth whilst our markets are interested in dividends to fund pensions or incomes. A company like Amazon was able to consistently tap the market for more capital despite not paying any dividends year after year after year as it grew to one of the largest companies in the world transforming efficiency in its sector. The reinvestment of profits allowed far greater automation and productivity gains.

    I do think that there are opportunities for catch up in both the UK and EU but it is going to require significantly different government policies and priorities. None of the parties seem to be offering these in the current election.
    It’s worth remembering that the USA is now the world’s biggest oil producer. It has also seen a vast increase in domestic gas supply, supplied very cheaply to its own industry.

    The US economy started pulling away from Europe once their fracking boom catapulted their output into the stratosphere.

    When you look at the impact of the rises in energy prices on the German economy since 2022 you can see how important this is. Cheap energy - the next wave being renewables, where yet again the US looks like stealing a march on Europe - is key.

    The other thing is their demographics. They remain a younger and faster growing population.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,044
    TimS said:

    It’s worth remembering that the USA is now the world’s biggest oil producer. It has also seen a vast increase in domestic gas supply, supplied very cheaply to its own industry.

    The US economy started pulling away from Europe once their fracking boom catapulted their output into the stratosphere.

    When you look at the impact of the rises in energy prices on the German economy since 2022 you can see how important this is. Cheap energy - the next wave being renewables, where yet again the US looks like stealing a march on Europe - is key.

    The other thing is their demographics. They remain a younger and faster growing population.
    Energy and demographics.

    Wasn't it ever thus?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,319

    If Sunak is spending his time in seats with majorities of 15,000 that implies that the private polling is as bad as the worst of the public polling right?

    Are the Tories now as unpopular as Labour in 2019? Really?

    On current polling most seats with a 2019 Conservative majority of 15 000 are lost. They probably should concentrate on seats with 18 000 to 25 000 majority.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,794

    Not an argument that would work with me I'm afraid as I have always been in favour of freedom of movement on a world rather than regional basis.

    In practice it would need modification of how we run things as a society. So whilst anyone could come here to work - if they could find work - they would have absolutely no entitlement to any form of Government support if they were not a British national. They would either be independently wealthy, be able to earn a living or would have to leave. It would of course also be illegal for any business to pay a foreigner less than they pay a Briton for the same job.

    Any form of criminality would result in immediate deportation. Same if they were homeless or without means of support. By the way this last is already the case for many European countries. If you turn up in France, even if just for a holiday, you have to prove you have sufficient funds for your stay. 35 Euros a day per person if staying with friends or family, 65 Euros a day if you have a prebooked hotel and 120 Euros a day if you have no pre-booking.

    But anyone with a job/offer here or with independent means of support should be free to travel here.

    Of course we should also fulfill our duties in terms of asylum quotas etc but that would be above and beyond the frredom of movement for those with income.

    No one will ever accept it of course. Both sides, left and right, even those who purport to be in favour of freedom of movement, blanch at the idea of it being genuinely free from Government interference. But that doesn't mean I can't advocate for it in principle.
    You’re taking a phrase and saying it must mean one thing and everyone else is wrong for not agreeing with you. This is silly. The answer is that the phrase simply doesn’t mean how you are using it.

    Freedom of movement in the EU sense is connected to the single market. To truly have free trade across the EU, the argument goes, you need freedom of movement too. Freedom of movement without the other three freedoms (goods, capital, services) makes no sense.

    You can advocate for whatever you want to advocate, but you will get criticised if you misuse terms to make silly points.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,826
    ydoethur said:

    Something's definitely artificial there, but it's not the intelligence of the buyers.
    Thing is we are nearly all buyers of it whether aware or not - if you have any kind of funded pension or any pooled investments in trusts or exchange traded funds you will have a lot of this stock
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,384

    Hah!

    The inflation is down to 2%!

    On target!!

    Has this won it for Rishi???

    No. He has had little to do with it falling and alot to do with it going up.

    It will also start to edge up again shortly.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,794

    The reason trump is going to get reelected is that the Biden style statist economic drive doesn't answer the question that populism poses: how to help people feel like they belong and that participatory activity is meaningful.
    The reason Trump is going to get re-elected is because there is a right-wing media that pumps out lies and propaganda.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,171

    Hah!

    The inflation is down to 2%!

    On target!!

    Has this won it for Rishi???

    Haha - no. Inflation rises feed quickly through to voting intention, but inflation falls do not. It takes a long time between inflation falling and voters feeling better off, and longer still between voters feeling better off and voters crediting the government with competence.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,367

    I know TP is not standing this time, but are any other PBers standing at this GE? I wonder if anyone has anybody kept quiet about their name being on a candidate list?

    (Which is their prerogative, tbf).
    David Herdson still pops up from time to time, though keeps a bit quieter when politically active - he is standing for the Yorkshire Party in Ossett & Denby Dale. Formally, I think I can say "again", as it is the successor seat taking in the slight majority of voters from old Wakefield, where he stood for by-election. The new Wakefield & Rothwell seat is formally a new seat.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,612

    OK, but why were we OK at that pre-2008?

    I agree but I'm fairly sure our capital investment challenge stretches back decades.
    The really large divergence with the rest of the G7 in terms of investment started in the late 90s, I think, and we were consistently near the bottom of the table since then.

    (I'm not sure about the pre-Thatcher era.)
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,826

    Hah!

    The inflation is down to 2%!

    On target!!

    Has this won it for Rishi???

    If he had gone for an Autumn election it would have helped him far more
  • The reason Trump is going to get re-elected is because there is a right-wing media that pumps out lies and propaganda.
    The US media right wing? They despise Trump.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,072
    viewcode said:

    You have to tax the rich. The poor don't have any money 👿
    What's interesting about Sir Jim's rather mealy-mouthed SKS endorsement is that it feels like he's on a journey to Reform. It would be impossible for him to endorse them, and pointless as they won't form the Government, but I can see him 'let down by Labour' in a couple of years and going over to Reform if they are still a force.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,612

    I'm not arguing against a global trade in food. I'm arguing in favour of ensuring that domestic food production is supported. ..
    It is, of course.
    A better question is whether the support is either efficient, well targeted, or sufficient.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,332

    Energy and demographics.

    Wasn't it ever thus?
    Pretty much, though education is important too. This points to a worldwide downturn, particularly in East Asia where the demographic pyramid is increasingly an inverted one.

    If it wasn't for climate change Africa and the Middle East are the future. Migration rather than growth in their economies may be how it comes into effect.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,846

    UK dropped off in 2008, and never recovered. Eurozone was never really there to start with.

    What explains that? And what are the Americans getting right that no-one in Europe is?
    Its possible to discuss ways of increasing of increasing productivity.

    But before that you have to want to increase productivity.

    And do European workers want to increase productivity ?

    There can be good reasons for not wanting to.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,643
    Ghedebrav said:

    I think I’ve only done postal vote once, out of necessity. I enjoy the ritual (only slightly sullied now by the ludicrous ID rules) of going to the station and the booth; my polling place is pleasingly a bowling pavilion.

    But yes - popcorn at the ready. I have booked the fifth off as leave.
    I had a postal vote in 2007, for the Scottish elections, when I was working in Oslo and coming home for weekends.
    I flew out on the Sunday prior to the election, and my vote arrived at home on the Monday.:(
This discussion has been closed.