How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
I would have said that Clacton was one of his bread and butter seats.....
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
A pedant notes: that's a justification put forward for keeping the current system, rather than what it was designed to do. Inasmuch as it was designed at all, it was for something 200-odd years ago. It's a system we have almost by accident.
Clacton is a complicated seat it seems. Three parties neck and neck where there is a high motivation for supporters of all other parties to vote tactically against Reform. But tactically for whom? If you generally despise the Tories but want to keep Farage out should you vote tactically for the Conservatives or vote Labour?
As no-one knows what's going on in Clacton, 13 - 1 Labour looks excellent value.
Clacton is a prime example of a chaos election in the making. For all that "Farage will win" took root the polls show that it is pretty close.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Couldn’t you argue the case for tories voting Labour?
The trouble is, this isn’t a constituency poll is it? It’s an MRP and that makes me quite nervous about it but it could be worth a flutter.
No. The previous vote in Clacton was Conservative 72&%, Labour 15%.
It's Tory - or Farage.
You were a voter there, how would you vote?
Good question MM.
I don’t know. I did say the other day that I would even vote Conservative to keep out Farage and I meant it.
Because it’s genuinely more 3-way there and because I think Labour are going to do pretty well nationally (37-42%) I’d probably vote Labour but a last minute decision and if I saw evidence the Conservative could win, I’d hold my nose and vote for him. As someone else mentioned ( @Foxy ?) it’s the only place they would vote Conservative.
I wish we could have some actual constituency polling though?
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Couldn’t you argue the case for tories voting Labour?
The trouble is, this isn’t a constituency poll is it? It’s an MRP and that makes me quite nervous about it but it could be worth a flutter.
No. The previous vote in Clacton was Conservative 72&%, Labour 15%.
It's Tory - or Farage.
You were a voter there, how would you vote?
Climate party for me. Its a green conservative party - and for me it would be a signal for the Green party to be a bit more err, green, and the Conservative party to be a bit more, err, conservative, so I could consider voting for them in the future.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Couldn’t you argue the case for tories voting Labour?
The trouble is, this isn’t a constituency poll is it? It’s an MRP and that makes me quite nervous about it but it could be worth a flutter.
No. The previous vote in Clacton was Conservative 72&%, Labour 15%.
It's Tory - or Farage.
You were a voter there, how would you vote?
For some of us the current iteration of the Conservative Party is but a notch away from Reform. I'd vote for whoever might come through the middle of them.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
Is that true? AFAIK the Reform Act 1884 was about equalising constituencies and getting rid of (most of) the multi-member seats. Was keeping fringe parties out really a motivating factor?
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
Support so deep in my seat with a 35,000 majority that my vote is utterly pointless.
It’s the same system that makes the US presidential election a fight over a few thousand voters in swing states and ignores the rest. It’s imperfectly democratic.
This MRP for Clacton just doesn't pass the sniff test.
Firstly, explain to me how the Labour vote goes up nearly double. Nationally, the Labour vote is up barely a third on 2019 levels. That needs some extraordinary special pleading.
Secondly, explain why a portion of that Labour vote isn't going to Farage.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
A pedant notes: that's a justification put forward for keeping the current system, rather than what it was designed to do. Inasmuch as it was designed at all, it was for something 200-odd years ago. It's a system we have almost by accident.
But which we as a nation voted to retain just a dozen years ago, by a thumping 2:1 majority
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
People preferring FPTP or not liking PR is of course fine. However as a fan of PR I do want to challenge other PR fans who think Reform should have zero representation with 10-20% of the vote. Its hypocrisy imo.
I'm a fan of PR who thinks that Reform certainly should have fair representation. In countries with PR, it seems to me that, when elected, extremist parties either end up becoming moderated by the need to actually govern or reveal themselves as clueless. The danger of FPTP is that extremism is allowed to build up such a head of steam that, when its proponents finally do get elected, they have the power to cause great damage.
I am still also a bit confused as to why Farage is extreme and Patel, Braverman, JRM are mainstream, when all four of them repeatedly say they have very similar views and express those views with similar dog whistles.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not sure Tactical Voting websites can cope with Lab/LibDem transfers to Tories. And besides a vote for Conservatives is a wasted vote. Arf arf.
More seriously, do we think Farage in the HoP might actually be a good thing in the long run? Stick him in there with Galloway and have him actually have to deal with constituents (or not) on a regular basis?
No, keep him out - and maintain his record as a serial loser.
That's what my gut says too. But I can't help thinking this isn't the way to deal with the post-Brexit 'enshittification' of political life. It might open me to a bit to accusations of accelerationism, but I wonder if Nigel in Westminster might shake a few progressives to get their shit together and realise that Reform isn't just a Tory problem.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Why would they do that, when the MRP suggests Labour is so close?
Because noone reads MRPs except us, and the media are ramping Clacton as a Reform scalp of the Tories (which is what I assumed it was until someone else helpfully read the MRP for me)
This MRP for Clacton just doesn't pass the sniff test.
Firstly, explain to me how the Labour vote goes up nearly double. Nationally, the Labour vote is up barely a third on 2019 levels. That needs some extraordinary special pleading.
Secondly, explain why a portion of that Labour vote isn't going to Farage.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not sure Tactical Voting websites can cope with Lab/LibDem transfers to Tories. And besides a vote for Conservatives is a wasted vote. Arf arf.
More seriously, do we think Farage in the HoP might actually be a good thing in the long run? Stick him in there with Galloway and have him actually have to deal with constituents (or not) on a regular basis?
No, keep him out - and maintain his record as a serial loser.
That's what my gut says too. But I can't help thinking this isn't the way to deal with the post-Brexit 'enshittification' of political life. It might open me to a bit to accusations of accelerationism, but I wonder if Nigel in Westminster might shake a few progressives to get their shit together and realise that Reform isn't just a Tory problem.
Farage would spend less time in Westminster than Sinn Fein.
This MRP for Clacton just doesn't pass the sniff test.
Firstly, explain to me how the Labour vote goes up nearly double. Nationally, the Labour vote is up barely a third on 2019 levels. That needs some extraordinary special pleading.
Secondly, explain why a portion of that Labour vote isn't going to Farage.
It makes no sense.
Thirdly, there was a UKIP MP not long ago, only kicked out by a Tory in 2027(?). So if you live there, have voted before and noted the result, and you don’t follow politics closely, you probably think of your choices as Tory and Reform.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Couldn’t you argue the case for tories voting Labour?
The trouble is, this isn’t a constituency poll is it? It’s an MRP and that makes me quite nervous about it but it could be worth a flutter.
No. The previous vote in Clacton was Conservative 72&%, Labour 15%.
It's Tory - or Farage.
You were a voter there, how would you vote?
Labour. Watling is in the culture warrior mob. He can get in the sea along with Farage.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Couldn’t you argue the case for tories voting Labour?
The trouble is, this isn’t a constituency poll is it? It’s an MRP and that makes me quite nervous about it but it could be worth a flutter.
No. The previous vote in Clacton was Conservative 72&%, Labour 15%.
It's Tory - or Farage.
You were a voter there, how would you vote?
For some of us the current iteration of the Conservative Party is but a notch away from Reform. I'd vote for whoever might come through the middle of them.
This^
If Reform are going to maintain the current momentum then they will hold the whip post election. Tory voters prefer Faragism to Sunakism. So why would you vote for the diet coke version when the leader of full fat coke is standing where you live?
It may me instructive to consider the 2015 election for the LibDems. Voters decided that they liked the coalition so may as well vote for the full fat party rather than the diet coke party.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
Of course they do. They look after their own. You are not affected by the stuff they do to other people.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
I've heard promises of Farage's imminent political demise for a while now
He’ll always be around. Farage has a lot of superficial charm and is entertaining on telly, ditto Johnson, so he will always get airtime and clicks. However neither shows any inclination to the administrative tedium of running a country which is, like it or not, part the job. Which is the essence of why Leon pisses me off. It’s not that he’s a rightist, plenty of those on here, and in my family TBH, it’s his constant ramping of politics as entertainment. It’s infected the Tory Party as a whole - they have watched too much West Wing, and apparently Veep and The Thick of It, and see it as a big game of clever quips and briefings. In the Tories’ case (not Farage obvs) the Oxford Union has a lot to answer for in this regard.
I’m naturally a dripping wet centrist melt Lib Dem. Large sections of the Labour Party repel me. Corbyn was appalling. But they are by several orders of magnitude more serious than the Conservatives, which is why I’m lending them my vote this time.
Are the streets of Clacton “mean”? I’ve not had the opportunity of visiting, but based on nearby Southend I’d guess they are more “bracing” and “filled with the mingled aromas of seaweed and frying chips”.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
Is that true? AFAIK the Reform Act 1884 was about equalising constituencies and getting rid of (most of) the multi-member seats. Was keeping fringe parties out really a motivating factor?
Yeah, I think it's dubious to say FPTP was "designed to" do anything -- it's one of the simplest and most natural seeming voting systems, which is why it's so widespread. I think effects like tending to exclude fringe parties, pushing towards a two party model, and tending to give governing majorities rather than coalitions are all emergent outcomes from the process rather than explicit effects aimed at by those who set up the system. (Which isn't to say they're not good arguments against change now we are where we are, if you happen to think they're good. Personally I prefer PR and will take the rough, like a block of Reform MPs, with the smooth, like everybody's vote being effective at a national level.)
Good morning. The Clacton MRP is very much how I see Great Yarmouth also going - a three way battle. They are the sort of seat you should be looking for a reform seat if their polling stays high - rather run down, quite poor, moderate sized urban areas (its the Skeggy in Boston and Skeggy that will perform for them). Blackpool, Grimsby, Hartlepool, Gt Yarmouth, Clacton, that clutch of coastal/tidal Essex and Kent seats. They will, imo, bomb in London, rural England, Scotland. They might also overperform in the Valleys but have far too much ground to make up
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
People preferring FPTP or not liking PR is of course fine. However as a fan of PR I do want to challenge other PR fans who think Reform should have zero representation with 10-20% of the vote. Its hypocrisy imo.
Are you arguing that fans of PR should vote for Farage in Clacton to ensure Reform get some Parliamentary representation?
I don't think it's hypocritical to hope that Reform get the minimum amount of support and representation, whatever the voting system, while supporting a different voting system that would give them more representation than FPTP.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not sure Tactical Voting websites can cope with Lab/LibDem transfers to Tories. And besides a vote for Conservatives is a wasted vote. Arf arf.
More seriously, do we think Farage in the HoP might actually be a good thing in the long run? Stick him in there with Galloway and have him actually have to deal with constituents (or not) on a regular basis?
No, keep him out - and maintain his record as a serial loser.
That's what my gut says too. But I can't help thinking this isn't the way to deal with the post-Brexit 'enshittification' of political life. It might open me to a bit to accusations of accelerationism, but I wonder if Nigel in Westminster might shake a few progressives to get their shit together and realise that Reform isn't just a Tory problem.
Farage would spend less time in Westminster than Sinn Fein.
Yes, but that won’t be the popular perception. He’ll do viral speeches like he did at the EU Parliament. And he’ll do them well; in the eyes of his target audience.
The average person things he was there a lot because of those, even though he really wasn’t.
If offered a committee slot (quite likely if they get only 1-2 MPs but off a large vote share) then he will run a mile.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
Support so deep in my seat with a 35,000 majority that my vote is utterly pointless.
It’s the same system that makes the US presidential election a fight over a few thousand voters in swing states and ignores the rest. It’s imperfectly democratic.
Imperfect, but so are the alternatives. I agree though that the presidential electoral system is bonkers. I heard yesterday that indeed it is likely down to around 100.000 voters to decide between Biden and Trump.
This MRP for Clacton just doesn't pass the sniff test.
Firstly, explain to me how the Labour vote goes up nearly double. Nationally, the Labour vote is up barely a third on 2019 levels. That needs some extraordinary special pleading.
Secondly, explain why a portion of that Labour vote isn't going to Farage.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
We know what the current Tory party means, and no one sane wants that for another 5 years.
Are the streets of Clacton “mean”? I’ve not had the opportunity of visiting, but based on nearby Southend I’d guess they are more “bracing” and “filled with the mingled aromas of seaweed and frying chips”.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
We have seen more institutional vandalism in the last decade than we have in the previous seven: unlawful prorogation of Parliament; restrictions on the right to vote; the criminalisation of peaceful protest; the rejection of the rule of law; legislating that black is white; and so on.
Good morning. The Clacton MRP is very much how I see Great Yarmouth also going - a three way battle. They are the sort of seat you should be looking for a reform seat if their polling stays high - rather run down, quite poor, moderate sized urban areas (its the Skeggy in Boston and Skeggy that will perform for them). Blackpool, Grimsby, Hartlepool, Gt Yarmouth, Clacton, that clutch of coastal/tidal Essex and Kent seats. They will, imo, bomb in London, rural England, Scotland. They might also overperform in the Valleys but have far too much ground to make up
And the MRP is before the two party squeeze sets in. But Farage’s name recognition probably means Clacton’s a Reform win.
This MRP for Clacton just doesn't pass the sniff test.
Firstly, explain to me how the Labour vote goes up nearly double. Nationally, the Labour vote is up barely a third on 2019 levels. That needs some extraordinary special pleading.
Secondly, explain why a portion of that Labour vote isn't going to Farage.
I do agree with you though about some of these MRPs in reality, as seen here.
We need a proper constituency poll to be frank.
I expect there will be one in due course. There, Ashfield, a couple of blue wall front bencher seats, Bristol Central.
But treat with extreme caution. Many of us on here have been burnt betting on constituency level polling before. I know there have been more accurate ones recently at byelections, but still, tread carefully.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
Many would have had the same blindness towards what the Tories are like when voting for them in 2019, especially as Johnson was good at talking up the 'levelling up' fiction. They then got a rude awakening with the crap we've all had to put up with since. You're just describing the natural cycle of our two-party system, fed by our remarkable ability to show collective amnesia.
As for your last sentence: - Inflation and mortgage rates over the past year or so? - Rotting teeth because there are no dentists left? - Spending all morning on the phone only to be told there are no appointments left for my sick one-year old? - Waiting four years for a sexual assault case to be heard? - Having to teach kids who have EHCPs that say they can only succeed in school with one-to-one support and yet who have no funding for that one-to-one support - etc etc etc
If this is what leaving me and my family alone looks like, I'll take my chances with the other lot, thanks.
Something very odd. Despite Labour having a policy of VAT on private school fees for several years, and the likelihood that they would win the next election, the number of private schools and pupils has been increasing:
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
People preferring FPTP or not liking PR is of course fine. However as a fan of PR I do want to challenge other PR fans who think Reform should have zero representation with 10-20% of the vote. Its hypocrisy imo.
Are you arguing that fans of PR should vote for Farage in Clacton to ensure Reform get some Parliamentary representation?
I don't think it's hypocritical to hope that Reform get the minimum amount of support and representation, whatever the voting system, while supporting a different voting system that would give them more representation than FPTP.
Different things there. They should vote how they want. But they shouldn't want parties with 10-20% of the vote to have no representation, its just wrong and imo damaging to the country too.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression. And Starmer's not even going to deliver equality.
Something very odd. Despite Labour having a policy of VAT on private school fees for several years, and the likelihood that they would win the next election, the number of private schools and pupils has been increasing:
Good morning. The Clacton MRP is very much how I see Great Yarmouth also going - a three way battle. They are the sort of seat you should be looking for a reform seat if their polling stays high - rather run down, quite poor, moderate sized urban areas (its the Skeggy in Boston and Skeggy that will perform for them). Blackpool, Grimsby, Hartlepool, Gt Yarmouth, Clacton, that clutch of coastal/tidal Essex and Kent seats. They will, imo, bomb in London, rural England, Scotland. They might also overperform in the Valleys but have far too much ground to make up
And the MRP is before the two party squeeze sets in. But Farage’s name recognition probably means Clacton’s a Reform win.
I think so, yes. Unless a LabCon tactical vote weirdly took hold but with Labour challenging this seems highly improbable. Reform gain.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
It's nasty neoliberalism v slightly less nasty neoliberalism. The fundamental point is neither (wrt the NHS) will slow the defund-to-fail ideology that has worked so brutally effectively with dentistry.
I'll take less-nasty neoliberalism in the short run (I'm voting LD incidentally here in Witney) but we'll still end up with Freeports, more oil and gas permits and Palantir owning all your health data. Sigh
Are the streets of Clacton “mean”? I’ve not had the opportunity of visiting, but based on nearby Southend I’d guess they are more “bracing” and “filled with the mingled aromas of seaweed and frying chips”.
Posh Frinton-on-sea is in the constituency too.
Watling will clean up in Frinny, but then it has an utter gub hole like Jaywick to counter
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
Is that true? AFAIK the Reform Act 1884 was about equalising constituencies and getting rid of (most of) the multi-member seats. Was keeping fringe parties out really a motivating factor?
Of course not, just your average Tory desperate to keep the crap system that favours them. It si them that are the extremists.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
Is that true? AFAIK the Reform Act 1884 was about equalising constituencies and getting rid of (most of) the multi-member seats. Was keeping fringe parties out really a motivating factor?
Yeah, I think it's dubious to say FPTP was "designed to" do anything -- it's one of the simplest and most natural seeming voting systems, which is why it's so widespread. I think effects like tending to exclude fringe parties, pushing towards a two party model, and tending to give governing majorities rather than coalitions are all emergent outcomes from the process rather than explicit effects aimed at by those who set up the system. (Which isn't to say they're not good arguments against change now we are where we are, if you happen to think they're good. Personally I prefer PR and will take the rough, like a block of Reform MPs, with the smooth, like everybody's vote being effective at a national level.)
FPTP is the natural way of organising things if you see the local area as the fundamental political unit. If you think MPs should and do look out first and foremost for their area, FPTP is a good fit. If you think MPs should or actually do tend to look out of national or party interests, then it's not a good fit.
Similarly, if you think voters tend to turn up to vote with this or that man or woman in mind, then FPTP seems a good choice. If you think voters turn up with this or that party in mind, then FPTP seems a bad choice.
Personally, I think both the way voters vote and the way MPs behave is much more inclined towards nation and party than local. Which isn't to say that local factors don't get a look in.
In my view, Holyrood has the best of both worlds. It's very proportional to votes cast, but still has constituency MSPs to keep the localism focus. I have multiple MSPs I can go to: a constituency one and several regional ones.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
Support so deep in my seat with a 35,000 majority that my vote is utterly pointless.
It’s the same system that makes the US presidential election a fight over a few thousand voters in swing states and ignores the rest. It’s imperfectly democratic.
Imperfect, but so are the alternatives. I agree though that the presidential electoral system is bonkers. I heard yesterday that indeed it is likely down to around 100.000 voters to decide between Biden and Trump.
This MRP for Clacton just doesn't pass the sniff test.
Firstly, explain to me how the Labour vote goes up nearly double. Nationally, the Labour vote is up barely a third on 2019 levels. That needs some extraordinary special pleading.
Secondly, explain why a portion of that Labour vote isn't going to Farage.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
Support so deep in my seat with a 35,000 majority that my vote is utterly pointless.
It’s the same system that makes the US presidential election a fight over a few thousand voters in swing states and ignores the rest. It’s imperfectly democratic.
Your regular remember that there's no such thing as a perfect voting system. So the choice is about the advantages you want and the disadvantages you're prepared to live with.
When comparing STV to FPTP I like that STV encourages parties to make a positive case to voters to vote for them, and that voters are not encouraged to guess how other voters in the constituency will vote in order to make a tactical vote against another party. I like that, where the parties stand more than one candidate, the voter is able to choose between candidates for the same party, reducing the power of the party machine.
I am looking forward to the election count finishing within twelve hours, rather than twelve days, though.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
Innate tribalism? Mate…take a look at yourself.
You’re privileged and comfortable enough in a Conservative society. Good for you. But for many other people the Tories have been interfering in their families’ lives with disastrous effect. The Windrush generation and anyone with a variable rate mortgage to name but two. They need a break from it. Others actually need government help. It’s because of those two groups, not the small minority unaffected by Tory interference, that it is looking likely your tribe will have a somewhat suboptimal election.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
I've heard promises of Farage's imminent political demise for a while now
True, but even Nigel can't hold off the march of time. He'll be 64 by the time the 2028 election comes round.
People don't disappear in their 60s or 70s. Gladstone was still PM on his 84th birthday.
That was a long time ago. You can’t imagine a major country today full of politicians in their late 70s and 80s.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
Of course they do. They look after their own. You are not affected by the stuff they do to other people.
But this is just it.
I think that central Tory voter conceit (not Casino's in particular) that 'I am an island, unaffected by those around me' is what leads so many thoughtful people to misplace their loyalty in this bunch of crooks.
However wealthy you are, we all benefit from prosperous, cohesive, safe and optimistic communities.
On a global scale we see it with immigration. We have 'looked after our own' UK nationals (with some honourable exceptions around the edges) for the last couple of hundred years and that is going to come back to bite us in terms of more and more pressure on immigration over the next few decades.
How much better position would we now be in had we more equitably shared the proceeds of globalisation?
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
I've heard promises of Farage's imminent political demise for a while now
True, but even Nigel can't hold off the march of time. He'll be 64 by the time the 2028 election comes round.
People don't disappear in their 60s or 70s. Gladstone was still PM on his 84th birthday.
That was a long time ago. You can’t imagine a major country today full of politicians in their late 70s and 80s.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
We have seen more institutional vandalism in the last decade than we have in the previous seven: unlawful prorogation of Parliament; restrictions on the right to vote; the criminalisation of peaceful protest; the rejection of the rule of law; legislating that black is white; and so on.
I dislike all of those things (except the prorogation where I think we just ended up with an odd court decision, but then one’s views on that probably correlated with whether one thought it was a necessary measure to stop Parliament being silly) but I don’t view them as institutional vandalism. The anti-protest stuff is authoritarian rubbish that I am sure Labour will double down on, and we have seen that Labour will end up doing a different form of Rwanda anyway.
In a way you are highlighting all the bits of this Gvt I dislike because they remind me of 97-10.
What I mean by institutional vandalism is that I expect the British Museum to start giving away its treasures to every country with a silly grievance like Greece. I expect wigs to disappear from court rooms, and no one to stop the BBC killing of the Last Night of the Proms. I expect jury trial to be further restricted (as an “efficiency” measure) and I expect Parliament to be rebuilt, and whilst out of Westminster many of the traditions to die.
Actually maybe I won’t vote Labour…. It’ll all happen in the booth. The trouble is I despise this government for any number of other reasons, with Rwanda high on the list.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
We’ve had 8 years of institution vandalism by the Tories following Brexit. What else is left to destroy.
Something very odd. Despite Labour having a policy of VAT on private school fees for several years, and the likelihood that they would win the next election, the number of private schools and pupils has been increasing:
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
Many would have had the same blindness towards what the Tories are like when voting for them in 2019, especially as Johnson was good at talking up the 'levelling up' fiction. They then got a rude awakening with the crap we've all had to put up with since. You're just describing the natural cycle of our two-party system, fed by our remarkable ability to show collective amnesia.
As for your last sentence: - Inflation and mortgage rates over the past year or so? - Rotting teeth because there are no dentists left? - Spending all morning on the phone only to be told there are no appointments left for my sick one-year old? - Waiting four years for a sexual assault case to be heard? - Having to teach kids who have EHCPs that say they can only succeed in school with one-to-one support and yet who have no funding for that one-to-one support - etc etc etc
If this is what leaving me and my family alone looks like, I'll take my chances with the other lot, thanks.
Well said.
When you defund the basic operations of a modern state, an angry underclass is manipulated into voting in populists which quickly mutate into authoritarians. They tend to leave privileged people alone...right up until the moment they don't.
Clacton is a complicated seat it seems. Three parties neck and neck where there is a high motivation for supporters of all other parties to vote tactically against Reform. But tactically for whom? If you generally despise the Tories but want to keep Farage out should you vote tactically for the Conservatives or vote Labour?
As no-one knows what's going on in Clacton, 13 - 1 Labour looks excellent value.
Clacton is a prime example of a chaos election in the making. For all that "Farage will win" took root the polls show that it is pretty close.
Expect a fair number of "no way!" results...
For fans of alternative political histories, it's all turning a bit Fourth Lectern-y for comfort.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
People preferring FPTP or not liking PR is of course fine. However as a fan of PR I do want to challenge other PR fans who think Reform should have zero representation with 10-20% of the vote. Its hypocrisy imo.
It would be hypocrisy if I’d seen any PR fan saying that, but I haven’t.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
Of course they do. They look after their own. You are not affected by the stuff they do to other people.
And, I've already been affected by the stuff that Labour do to other people.
Something very odd. Despite Labour having a policy of VAT on private school fees for several years, and the likelihood that they would win the next election, the number of private schools and pupils has been increasing:
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression. And Starmer's not even going to deliver equality.
A regular line that's trotted out like it's some sort of killer point, but with zero truth in it.
It's there purely to justify dismissing any opposition to destructive policies.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
Many would have had the same blindness towards what the Tories are like when voting for them in 2019, especially as Johnson was good at talking up the 'levelling up' fiction. They then got a rude awakening with the crap we've all had to put up with since. You're just describing the natural cycle of our two-party system, fed by our remarkable ability to show collective amnesia.
As for your last sentence: - Inflation and mortgage rates over the past year or so? - Rotting teeth because there are no dentists left? - Spending all morning on the phone only to be told there are no appointments left for my sick one-year old? - Waiting four years for a sexual assault case to be heard? - Having to teach kids who have EHCPs that say they can only succeed in school with one-to-one support and yet who have no funding for that one-to-one support - etc etc etc
If this is what leaving me and my family alone looks like, I'll take my chances with the other lot, thanks.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
We have seen more institutional vandalism in the last decade than we have in the previous seven: unlawful prorogation of Parliament; restrictions on the right to vote; the criminalisation of peaceful protest; the rejection of the rule of law; legislating that black is white; and so on.
I dislike all of those things (except the prorogation where I think we just ended up with an odd court decision, but then one’s views on that probably correlated with whether one thought it was a necessary measure to stop Parliament being silly) but I don’t view them as institutional vandalism. The anti-protest stuff is authoritarian rubbish that I am sure Labour will double down on, and we have seen that Labour will end up doing a different form of Rwanda anyway.
In a way you are highlighting all the bits of this Gvt I dislike because they remind me of 97-10.
What I mean by institutional vandalism is that I expect the British Museum to start giving away its treasures to every country with a silly grievance like Greece. I expect wigs to disappear from court rooms, and no one to stop the BBC killing of the Last Night of the Proms. I expect jury trial to be further restricted (as an “efficiency” measure) and I expect Parliament to be rebuilt, and whilst out of Westminster many of the traditions to die.
Actually maybe I won’t vote Labour…. It’ll all happen in the booth. The trouble is I despise this government for any number of other reasons, with Rwanda high on the list.
For me, taking away voting rights and criminalising peaceful protest, while legislating that black is white because you do not believe in the rule of law, is more problematic - and a far greater example of institutional vandalism -than no wigs in courtrooms. Put it this way, I'll take a full Parliamentary democracy over Black Rod. Though I'd prefer both.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
Many would have had the same blindness towards what the Tories are like when voting for them in 2019, especially as Johnson was good at talking up the 'levelling up' fiction. They then got a rude awakening with the crap we've all had to put up with since. You're just describing the natural cycle of our two-party system, fed by our remarkable ability to show collective amnesia.
As for your last sentence: - Inflation and mortgage rates over the past year or so? - Rotting teeth because there are no dentists left? - Spending all morning on the phone only to be told there are no appointments left for my sick one-year old? - Waiting four years for a sexual assault case to be heard? - Having to teach kids who have EHCPs that say they can only succeed in school with one-to-one support and yet who have no funding for that one-to-one support - etc etc etc
If this is what leaving me and my family alone looks like, I'll take my chances with the other lot, thanks.
Yes, the economic situation is not great - and Covid-19, Ukraine and the deteriorating geopolitical situation has much to answer for that - but funding public services better depends on economic growth, not ideology.
I think Labour will deliver the latter but not the former. You clearly disagree, and that's fine.
This MRP for Clacton just doesn't pass the sniff test.
Firstly, explain to me how the Labour vote goes up nearly double. Nationally, the Labour vote is up barely a third on 2019 levels. That needs some extraordinary special pleading.
Secondly, explain why a portion of that Labour vote isn't going to Farage.
It makes no sense.
Isn't the whole point of MRP that it doesn't imply a uniform swing, and is instead based on demographics, which might include greater switching by Leave voters as the impact of that unwinds, for example.
I'm also sceptical about aspects of MRP stuff. But it's certainly true that the Labour vote cannot mathematically be up a third in Liverpool Walton, for example, and will be up more in other places.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
We know what the current Tory party means, and no one sane wants that for another 5 years.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
A pedant notes: that's a justification put forward for keeping the current system, rather than what it was designed to do. Inasmuch as it was designed at all, it was for something 200-odd years ago. It's a system we have almost by accident.
But which we as a nation voted to retain just a dozen years ago, by a thumping 2:1 majority
Well fair enough. But note that that was in preference to the utterly shitty AV. We were given the choice between a shitty system and its shittiest alternative. (Give me single transferable vote or give me death.) Also, the campaign in favour of AV was even worse than the Remain campaign and almost as bad as the campaign for devolution for the North East.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
Of course they do. They look after their own. You are not affected by the stuff they do to other people.
And, I've already been affected by the stuff that Labour do to other people.
Hell would freeze over before I'd vote for them.
We've all been affected by the stuff that the Tories do to normal people, so you're just going to have to suck it up, pay the VAT on the kids education and wade through that blood as best you can, buttercup.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
I've heard promises of Farage's imminent political demise for a while now
True, but even Nigel can't hold off the march of time. He'll be 64 by the time the 2028 election comes round.
People don't disappear in their 60s or 70s. Gladstone was still PM on his 84th birthday.
Nige is still on the fags and ale, isn't he? He's no Donald Trump.
This MRP for Clacton just doesn't pass the sniff test.
Firstly, explain to me how the Labour vote goes up nearly double. Nationally, the Labour vote is up barely a third on 2019 levels. That needs some extraordinary special pleading.
Secondly, explain why a portion of that Labour vote isn't going to Farage.
It makes no sense.
The MRP polling shows Labour surging up to double in seats where they were weak - it's virtually impossible for the national swing to be repeated in seats where Labour already has a large majority. And very few Labour votes appear to be going to Reform.
Doesn't mean Farage won't win in Clacton. But the polls showing Labour close are probably accurate.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
Innate tribalism? Mate…take a look at yourself.
You’re privileged and comfortable enough in a Conservative society. Good for you. But for many other people the Tories have been interfering in their families’ lives with disastrous effect. The Windrush generation and anyone with a variable rate mortgage to name but two. They need a break from it. Others actually need government help. It’s because of those two groups, not the small minority unaffected by Tory interference, that it is looking likely your tribe will have a somewhat suboptimal election.
It's word like "privileged", that feature so heavily in the Labour lexicon, which I find so deeply disturbing.
I started off with zero in the bank account post graduation, and I was on an average salary 10 years ago. I only entered the tax trap 2.5 years ago with a big promotion.
It's the thin end of the wedge of a war on aspiration and success that will damage the country, to all of our detriment.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
Many would have had the same blindness towards what the Tories are like when voting for them in 2019, especially as Johnson was good at talking up the 'levelling up' fiction. They then got a rude awakening with the crap we've all had to put up with since. You're just describing the natural cycle of our two-party system, fed by our remarkable ability to show collective amnesia.
As for your last sentence: - Inflation and mortgage rates over the past year or so? - Rotting teeth because there are no dentists left? - Spending all morning on the phone only to be told there are no appointments left for my sick one-year old? - Waiting four years for a sexual assault case to be heard? - Having to teach kids who have EHCPs that say they can only succeed in school with one-to-one support and yet who have no funding for that one-to-one support - etc etc etc
If this is what leaving me and my family alone looks like, I'll take my chances with the other lot, thanks.
Yes, the economic situation is not great - and Covid-19, Ukraine and the deteriorating geopolitical situation has much to answer for that - but funding public services better depends on economic growth, not ideology.
I think Labour will deliver the latter but not the former. You clearly disagree, and that's fine.
One reason I hate this government is because I know I'd hate the alternatives, but the Conservatives left no stone unturned in making people vote for the alternatives.
All we're getting is a choice between different brands of dogshit.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
We have seen more institutional vandalism in the last decade than we have in the previous seven: unlawful prorogation of Parliament; restrictions on the right to vote; the criminalisation of peaceful protest; the rejection of the rule of law; legislating that black is white; and so on.
What I mean by institutional vandalism is that I expect the British Museum to start giving away its treasures to every country with a silly grievance like Greece.
Such a breathtakingly ignorant comment that it’s made me laugh out loud.
Do you even know the history on that?
I think a lot of people who label things as ‘woke’ are really just meaning ‘change’. Which of course says more about them than whichever cause is in the their current line of sight.
Do not go gentle into that good night, Old age should burn and rave at close of day; Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
We have seen more institutional vandalism in the last decade than we have in the previous seven: unlawful prorogation of Parliament; restrictions on the right to vote; the criminalisation of peaceful protest; the rejection of the rule of law; legislating that black is white; and so on.
I dislike all of those things (except the prorogation where I think we just ended up with an odd court decision, but then one’s views on that probably correlated with whether one thought it was a necessary measure to stop Parliament being silly) but I don’t view them as institutional vandalism. The anti-protest stuff is authoritarian rubbish that I am sure Labour will double down on, and we have seen that Labour will end up doing a different form of Rwanda anyway.
In a way you are highlighting all the bits of this Gvt I dislike because they remind me of 97-10.
What I mean by institutional vandalism is that I expect the British Museum to start giving away its treasures to every country with a silly grievance like Greece. I expect wigs to disappear from court rooms, and no one to stop the BBC killing of the Last Night of the Proms. I expect jury trial to be further restricted (as an “efficiency” measure) and I expect Parliament to be rebuilt, and whilst out of Westminster many of the traditions to die.
Actually maybe I won’t vote Labour…. It’ll all happen in the booth. The trouble is I despise this government for any number of other reasons, with Rwanda high on the list.
For me, taking away voting rights and criminalising peaceful protest, while legislating that black is white because you do not believe in the rule of law, is more problematic - and a far greater example of institutional vandalism -than no wigs in courtrooms. Put it this way, I'll take a full Parliamentary democracy over Black Rod. Though I'd prefer both.
I know this is a silly classification point, but in my head “institutional vandalism” is irritating “look and feel” stuff you can ever get back.
Those things are far more serious, but very reservable. Labour won’t reverse them, and that’s why I wish we had a truly liberal alternative that would. Where is my party offering a complete return to all jury trials for everything? Where is my party offering to protect all protest including against its pet projects?
This things are more important, but Labour doesn’t give a toss about them, it will just make the other “look and feel” stuff worse as well. And I am probably going to vote for them!
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
Of course they do. They look after their own. You are not affected by the stuff they do to other people.
And, I've already been affected by the stuff that Labour do to other people.
Hell would freeze over before I'd vote for them.
We've all been affected by the stuff that the Tories do to normal people, so you're just going to have to suck it up, pay the VAT on the kids education and wade through that blood as best you can, buttercup.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
We have seen more institutional vandalism in the last decade than we have in the previous seven: unlawful prorogation of Parliament; restrictions on the right to vote; the criminalisation of peaceful protest; the rejection of the rule of law; legislating that black is white; and so on.
What I mean by institutional vandalism is that I expect the British Museum to start giving away its treasures to every country with a silly grievance like Greece.
Such a breathtakingly ignorant comment that it’s made me laugh out loud.
Do you even know the history on that?
I think a lot of people who label things as ‘woke’ are really just meaning ‘change’. Which of course says more about them than whichever cause is in the their current line of sight.
Do not go gentle into that good night, Old age should burn and rave at close of day; Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Yes.
I won’t return your personal insults.
And I have never used, and will never use the word “woke”. Don’t put words in other people’s mouths. Have some manners.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
People preferring FPTP or not liking PR is of course fine. However as a fan of PR I do want to challenge other PR fans who think Reform should have zero representation with 10-20% of the vote. Its hypocrisy imo.
It would be hypocrisy if I’d seen any PR fan saying that, but I haven’t.
It seems a common sentiment from plenty of people who I would mostly agree with on here. Foxy explicitly at 9:09 on this thread as one example.
noneoftheabove said: For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote? Foxy: Yes. Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
Of course they do. They look after their own. You are not affected by the stuff they do to other people.
And, I've already been affected by the stuff that Labour do to other people.
Hell would freeze over before I'd vote for them.
No, you haven't. But you want to believe you have been and that is fine. I just wish more people who are apoplectic about VAT on private school fees had cared as much about the cuts to Sure Start centres the government they supported inflicted on so many. Maybe a lot of young lives would have turned out a lot better than they have.
Something very odd. Despite Labour having a policy of VAT on private school fees for several years, and the likelihood that they would win the next election, the number of private schools and pupils has been increasing:
Need a surly git in a blazer, with his own tankard hanging behind the bar of his local...
In the photo where he is one of a line-up, his jumper gives an Agatha Christie-ish 1950s vibe. Also his middle parting has a 50s look. That might appeal in Clacton.
Something very odd. Despite Labour having a policy of VAT on private school fees for several years, and the likelihood that they would win the next election, the number of private schools and pupils has been increasing:
PB's pro-vat-on-schools contingent told us a school closing can't be due to VAT because Labour haven't been elected yet. Can't have it both ways.
The Guardian is simply pandering to the prejudices of its own readers, who are predictably lapping it up.
It tells you nothing of the nationality of such pupils or what schools are increasing their rolls.
It's the small, marginal, independent schools that will be hit by this, and indeed are already being hit, not the Etons and Winchesters where its perfectly possible they modify their models and continue to expand and take a larger overseas contingent.
Are the streets of Clacton “mean”? I’ve not had the opportunity of visiting, but based on nearby Southend I’d guess they are more “bracing” and “filled with the mingled aromas of seaweed and frying chips”.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
All of that.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
Of course they do. They look after their own. You are not affected by the stuff they do to other people.
And, I've already been affected by the stuff that Labour do to other people.
Hell would freeze over before I'd vote for them.
I would suggest you spend more time looking for another school for your son, rather than keep blaming labour (who aren't yet in power) for a school closing with falling rolls and poor financial management. There are plenty of other independent schools, good ones at that, who will pick up the flotsam and jetsom from failing schools.
I suspect that Labour selecting a non-white candidate for Clacton, Brexit central, may limit their appeal to some sections of the electorate there. However, good on them for doing so.
I would love to be proved wrong, and my heart would sing if Jovan beat Farage.
Comments
I don’t know. I did say the other day that I would even vote Conservative to keep out Farage and I meant it.
Because it’s genuinely more 3-way there and because I think Labour are going to do pretty well nationally (37-42%) I’d probably vote Labour but a last minute decision and if I saw evidence the Conservative could win, I’d hold my nose and vote for him. As someone else mentioned ( @Foxy ?) it’s the only place they would vote Conservative.
I wish we could have some actual constituency polling though?
It’s the same system that makes the US presidential election a fight over a few thousand voters in swing states and ignores the rest. It’s imperfectly democratic.
Firstly, explain to me how the Labour vote goes up nearly double. Nationally, the Labour vote is up barely a third on 2019 levels. That needs some extraordinary special pleading.
Secondly, explain why a portion of that Labour vote isn't going to Farage.
It makes no sense.
The leitmotif is its innate tribalism and desire to reshape and reorder society through regulation, taxation, nannying, authoritarianism, into whatever it pleases. It's happy to use bullying and threats to achieve this and to restructure institutions to stack the deck in its favour. It *will* interfere into your everyday life and pressure you to comply in your personal and professional life or there will be financial and legal consequences for you. It won't brook much dissent.
It's why I'm sticking with the Conservatives. For all their faults, they leave me and my family alone.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Clacton
I do agree with you though about some of these MRPs in reality, as seen here.
We need a proper constituency poll to be frank.
If Reform are going to maintain the current momentum then they will hold the whip post election. Tory voters prefer Faragism to Sunakism. So why would you vote for the diet coke version when the leader of full fat coke is standing where you live?
It may me instructive to consider the 2015 election for the LibDems. Voters decided that they liked the coalition so may as well vote for the full fat party rather than the diet coke party.
I’m naturally a dripping wet centrist melt Lib Dem. Large sections of the Labour Party repel me. Corbyn was appalling. But they are by several orders of magnitude more serious than the Conservatives, which is why I’m lending them my vote this time.
The Clacton MRP is very much how I see Great Yarmouth also going - a three way battle.
They are the sort of seat you should be looking for a reform seat if their polling stays high - rather run down, quite poor, moderate sized urban areas (its the Skeggy in Boston and Skeggy that will perform for them). Blackpool, Grimsby, Hartlepool, Gt Yarmouth, Clacton, that clutch of coastal/tidal Essex and Kent seats.
They will, imo, bomb in London, rural England, Scotland. They might also overperform in the Valleys but have far too much ground to make up
I don't think it's hypocritical to hope that Reform get the minimum amount of support and representation, whatever the voting system, while supporting a different voting system that would give them more representation than FPTP.
The average person things he was there a lot because of those, even though he really wasn’t.
If offered a committee slot (quite likely if they get only 1-2 MPs but off a large vote share) then he will run a mile.
I agree though that the presidential electoral system is bonkers. I heard yesterday that indeed it is likely down to around 100.000 voters to decide between Biden and Trump.
As for your last sentence:
- Inflation and mortgage rates over the past year or so?
- Rotting teeth because there are no dentists left?
- Spending all morning on the phone only to be told there are no appointments left for my sick one-year old?
- Waiting four years for a sexual assault case to be heard?
- Having to teach kids who have EHCPs that say they can only succeed in school with one-to-one support and yet who have no funding for that one-to-one support
- etc etc etc
If this is what leaving me and my family alone looks like, I'll take my chances with the other lot, thanks.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/jun/15/number-of-private-school-pupils-rises-despite-claims-families-priced-out-by-labours-vat-plan
I'll take less-nasty neoliberalism in the short run (I'm voting LD incidentally here in Witney) but we'll still end up with Freeports, more oil and gas permits and Palantir owning all your health data. Sigh
If you think MPs should or actually do tend to look out of national or party interests, then it's not a good fit.
Similarly, if you think voters tend to turn up to vote with this or that man or woman in mind, then FPTP seems a good choice. If you think voters turn up with this or that party in mind, then FPTP seems a bad choice.
Personally, I think both the way voters vote and the way MPs behave is much more inclined towards nation and party than local. Which isn't to say that local factors don't get a look in.
In my view, Holyrood has the best of both worlds. It's very proportional to votes cast, but still has constituency MSPs to keep the localism focus. I have multiple MSPs I can go to: a constituency one and several regional ones.
When comparing STV to FPTP I like that STV encourages parties to make a positive case to voters to vote for them, and that voters are not encouraged to guess how other voters in the constituency will vote in order to make a tactical vote against another party. I like that, where the parties stand more than one candidate, the voter is able to choose between candidates for the same party, reducing the power of the party machine.
I am looking forward to the election count finishing within twelve hours, rather than twelve days, though.
You’re privileged and comfortable enough in a Conservative society. Good for you. But for many other people the Tories have been interfering in their families’ lives with disastrous effect. The Windrush generation and anyone with a variable rate mortgage to name but two. They need a break from it. Others actually need government help. It’s because of those two groups, not the small minority unaffected by Tory interference, that it is looking likely your tribe will have a somewhat suboptimal election.
I think that central Tory voter conceit (not Casino's in particular) that 'I am an island, unaffected by those around me' is what leads so many thoughtful people to misplace their loyalty in this bunch of crooks.
However wealthy you are, we all benefit from prosperous, cohesive, safe and optimistic communities.
On a global scale we see it with immigration. We have 'looked after our own' UK nationals (with some honourable exceptions around the edges) for the last couple of hundred years and that is going to come back to bite us in terms of more and more pressure on immigration over the next few decades.
How much better position would we now be in had we more equitably shared the proceeds of globalisation?
In a way you are highlighting all the bits of this Gvt I dislike because they remind me of 97-10.
What I mean by institutional vandalism is that I expect the British Museum to start giving away its treasures to every country with a silly grievance like Greece. I expect wigs to disappear from court rooms, and no one to stop the BBC killing of the Last Night of the Proms. I expect jury trial to be further restricted (as an “efficiency” measure) and I expect Parliament to be rebuilt, and whilst out of Westminster many of the traditions to die.
Actually maybe I won’t vote Labour…. It’ll all happen in the booth. The trouble is I despise this government for any number of other reasons, with Rwanda high on the list.
When you defund the basic operations of a modern state, an angry underclass is manipulated into voting in populists which quickly mutate into authoritarians. They tend to leave privileged people alone...right up until the moment they don't.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-fourth-lectern-a-2010-election-tl.192125/
Whatever its other merits, FPTP goes bonkers with 4 players.
Hell would freeze over before I'd vote for them.
It's there purely to justify dismissing any opposition to destructive policies.
Great, albeit heart-rending, post
Footage shows all 16 vehicles being destroyed. Being a Russian tanker must now have a lower life expectancy than WW2 U-boat crews.
Plus claims another 58 pieces of Russian artillery were destroyed yesterday.
I think Labour will deliver the latter but not the former. You clearly disagree, and that's fine.
I'm also sceptical about aspects of MRP stuff. But it's certainly true that the Labour vote cannot mathematically be up a third in Liverpool Walton, for example, and will be up more in other places.
Also, the campaign in favour of AV was even worse than the Remain campaign and almost as bad as the campaign for devolution for the North East.
Doesn't mean Farage won't win in Clacton. But the polls showing Labour close are probably accurate.
I started off with zero in the bank account post graduation, and I was on an average salary 10 years ago. I only entered the tax trap 2.5 years ago with a big promotion.
It's the thin end of the wedge of a war on aspiration and success that will damage the country, to all of our detriment.
All we're getting is a choice between different brands of dogshit.
Do you even know the history on that?
I think a lot of people who label things as ‘woke’ are really just meaning ‘change’. Which of course says more about them than whichever cause is in the their current line of sight.
Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Those things are far more serious, but very reservable. Labour won’t reverse them, and that’s why I wish we had a truly liberal alternative that would. Where is my party offering a complete return to all jury trials for everything? Where is my party offering to protect all protest including against its pet projects?
This things are more important, but Labour doesn’t give a toss about them, it will just make the other “look and feel” stuff worse as well. And I am probably going to vote for them!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUej2pWLUUc
I won’t return your personal insults.
And I have never used, and will never use the word “woke”. Don’t put words in other people’s mouths. Have some manners.
noneoftheabove said: For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Foxy: Yes. Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
I thought the increase was due to overseas students! Possibly bringing their parents with them.
It tells you nothing of the nationality of such pupils or what schools are increasing their rolls.
It's the small, marginal, independent schools that will be hit by this, and indeed are already being hit, not the Etons and Winchesters where its perfectly possible they modify their models and continue to expand and take a larger overseas contingent.
Just like our universities do.
I would love to be proved wrong, and my heart would sing if Jovan beat Farage.