How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Be great to see seven times loser Farage become eight times loser instead.
I see people on the previous thread objected to me and others calling Farage a nasty racist. Perhaps if he doesn't want to be called a nasty racist, he shouldn't be a nasty racist?
It's not woke to call a racist a racist, it's the truth.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not sure Tactical Voting websites can cope with Lab/LibDem transfers to Tories. And besides a vote for Conservatives is a wasted vote. Arf arf.
More seriously, do we think Farage in the HoP might actually be a good thing in the long run? Stick him in there with Galloway and have him actually have to deal with constituents (or not) on a regular basis?
Just put a tiny sum on this. Only got a smattering of small bets, constituencies (Clacton-Con, Richmond-Lab, Tewkesbury-Lib), Con to get 150-199 seats (looking red), Lab to get an outright majority (quietly confident).
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not sure Tactical Voting websites can cope with Lab/LibDem transfers to Tories. And besides a vote for Conservatives is a wasted vote. Arf arf.
More seriously, do we think Farage in the HoP might actually be a good thing in the long run? Stick him in there with Galloway and have him actually have to deal with constituents (or not) on a regular basis?
Difficult to know who is the best TV against Farage in Clacton.
It will be so funny if Lab wins there.
I have to say I’d see Labour as the vote to take on Farage. I know Watling is the incumbent, but much of his vote will go RefUK. I’d give the young Labour guy my vote. He may stay on through the middle.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Agree he'll be all over the media, but will that help in Clacton? He needs doorknockers and organization too surely?
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
Today's Sunday Rawnsley, from a trying-to-be-sunny island after yesterday's windswept yacht race...
From the off, this election has been Labour’s to lose – and boy does it know it. I say...this as a compliment to the professionalism of the Labour campaign, not least because I’ve witnessed so many past contests in which the party lacked the ferocious focus and the steely will to prevail in the brutal contact sport of electoral politics.
As we puff past the halfway mark, journalists pronounce themselves bored with Labour. Meant as an insult, it is flattery in the ears of Sir Keir’s team. The media thirsts for drama and novelty, but the Labour team’s contrary belief is that most voters currently crave stability and predictability.
The manifesto does indeed contain nothing you would not already know if you’ve been paying reasonably close attention to the “missions” and the “first steps” previously unveiled. That doesn’t make it fair to damn it as a timid prospectus. On the likes of housebuilding, clean power and achieving sustainably higher growth, the longer-term goals are almost heroically ambitious.
The Tories are the party for those preferring one that frantically sprays out unfunded, slapdash, last-minute wheezes. As a strategy, that doesn’t seem to be working out all that well for Rishi Sunak.
Unless the entire polling industry is perpetrating the howler of all time, he will be entering Downing Street in less than three weeks’ time. It will be a dazzling achievement to take Labour into power just five years after the party’s worst defeat since the 1930s. Those who want to cavil will say that the main propellant of Sir Keir’s success is not desire to see him in power, but loathing for the Tories. This is not such a killer point as some imagine it to be. The unpopularity of their opponents played a large part in putting Tony Blair in Number 10 in 1997 and Margaret Thatcher in 1979.
There are two worms of unease wriggling in Labour’s guts. One is that forecasts of a Starmer mega-majority may so alarm rightwing voters that they pinch their noses and rally to the Tories. Mr Sunak’s crew is already desperate enough to be implicitly conceding defeat by publicising graphics suggesting Tory parliamentary representation could be so eviscerated that there will be no meaningful opposition to a Labour government. The other concern for Labour is that there is an “enthusiasm deficit” that will mean victory is tainted by a depressed turnout. Some Labour frontbenchers think the time is coming when there needs to be more effort to lift the spirits of the electorate. One of the leader’s team agrees that “we need to make things sing” in the run-up to polling day. What more can the Labour campaign add? Food for the soul. Providing, of course, it is fully costed.
Probably the opposite is true. Outside of parliament, Farage is rarely off our screens. Inside, at least some notion of political balance might limit his appearances. Vote Farage for less Nigel.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Remarkably not. It would appear we get Lib Lab Con and Plaid today.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
The pressure for a fair voting system always comes from the losers. The ones with the power to change it are the winners. It ain't happening as much as I would like it to. Even if we somehow got a referendum on it, the public probably wouldn't go for it anyway.
ice to see Nadine Dorres as delusional as normal. It was the fact that the Tory Party got rid of Boris Johnson that caused the fall in the Tory party support rather than the reasons behind removing him and Liz Trump.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
I've heard promises of Farage's imminent political demise for a while now
True, but even Nigel can't hold off the march of time. He'll be 64 by the time the 2028 election comes round.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Oh hell no. Watch the momentum in this election. Instead of getting pseudo Farage why not get actual Farage? I know we had one PBer change their vote from Conservative to Conservative in protest at Farage and doubtless some voters will. But polling shows that the vast majority of Reform voters want to destroy the Conservative Party and remake it in His image. Why would progressive voters want to support that?
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
I've heard promises of Farage's imminent political demise for a while now
One day it will be the right call. Why not July 5th 2024?
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
The first by-election of the new Parliament will be Richmond and Northallerton (probably); it will be interesting to see who the Tories select to stand there. Mordaunt? Harper? Chalk? Cameron? Farage?
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
It'll certainly be interesting to see how long the whole "we can effect change without it costing you anything, through miraculous levels of economic growth" narrative lasts, and what happens next when it becomes obvious that it is balderdash.
You can't have either miraculous growth or tax cuts in an economy dominated by property speculation and a constant net flow of wealth to the elderly.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
It's a good tip and, given how crap and disorganised a campaigner he is, there's a fair chance.
I'm probably just as interested at the 9/2 on the Conservatives, tbh.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
That's a very good point. Clacton will forever live in infamy as the place that put Farage into Parliament. People will try to change their address.to Jaywick
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Why would they do that, when the MRP suggests Labour is so close?
Be great to see seven times loser Farage become eight times loser instead.
I see people on the previous thread objected to me and others calling Farage a nasty racist. Perhaps if he doesn't want to be called a nasty racist, he shouldn't be a nasty racist?
It's not woke to call a racist a racist, it's the truth.
Well said.
And you are the kind of person needed to drag your Party back after July 5th. @TSE likewise.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
It's a good tip and, given how crap and disorganised a campaigner he is, there's a fair chance.
I'm probably just as interested at the 9/2 on the Conservatives, tbh.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
The first by-election of the new Parliament will be Richmond and Northallerton (probably); it will be interesting to see who the Tories select to stand there. Mordaunt? Harper? Chalk? Cameron? Farage?
Surely not, when Rishi has promised to serve the full term as the local MP?
The idea of tactical voting is anathema to me: I will vote for who I wish to win in my constituency, in order to register a vote for them, come what may. I can’t be that unusual.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Couldn’t you argue the case for tories voting Labour?
The trouble is, this isn’t a constituency poll is it? It’s an MRP and that makes me quite nervous about it but it could be worth a flutter.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
OTOH we can all see what a Conservative Government means. And the preservation of the electoral system by the big two means that there is only one alternative. Is it any wonder that voters are willing to roll the dice?
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
Social progress and liberal values, without being ridiculous about them. Centrist and at ease. That will do us nicely, thanks.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
The pressure for a fair voting system always comes from the losers. The ones with the power to change it are the winners. It ain't happening as much as I would like it to. Even if we somehow got a referendum on it, the public probably wouldn't go for it anyway.
Not quite true; or rather, that needs to be qualified. It was the winners at the time who introduced the debased d'Hondt system at Holyrood because they were frightened they would lose in the future. But if we define the winners at the time as the Labour-LD alliance in Scotland then their set up of what should - to them - have been a permanent Lab-LD coalition would fulfil your requirement.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
The idea of tactical voting is anathema to me: I will vote for who I wish to win in my constituency, in order to register a vote for them, come what may. I can’t be that unusual.
I am in a seat that would be the difference between a Lab majority of 200 or 198, so feel no need to vote tactically.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
It's a good tip and, given how crap and disorganised a campaigner he is, there's a fair chance.
I'm probably just as interested at the 9/2 on the Conservatives, tbh.
Reform also suffer from lack of local organisation throughout the country.
I think they are going to underperform on the day.
Clacton is a complicated seat it seems. Three parties neck and neck where there is a high motivation for supporters of all other parties to vote tactically against Reform. But tactically for whom? If you generally despise the Tories but want to keep Farage out should you vote tactically for the Conservatives or vote Labour?
As no-one knows what's going on in Clacton, 13 - 1 Labour looks excellent value.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
People preferring FPTP or not liking PR is of course fine. However as a fan of PR I do want to challenge other PR fans who think Reform should have zero representation with 10-20% of the vote. Its hypocrisy imo.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
Yet when that happens, eg the SNP, it is denounced regularly on here as precisely the opposite, as undemocratic. Silly, really, as it is the MP, not the Party, that is the basic unit of the Parliament.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
It's a good tip and, given how crap and disorganised a campaigner he is, there's a fair chance.
I'm probably just as interested at the 9/2 on the Conservatives, tbh.
Reform also suffer from lack of local organisation throughout the country.
I think they are going to underperform on the day.
Even if Big_G is unique in having made a complete tit of himself online for two elections running, there are surely lots like him who have been wittering on about their discontent with the Tories without any intention of following through? That suggests the Tories will overperform the current polls.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
The first by-election of the new Parliament will be Richmond and Northallerton (probably); it will be interesting to see who the Tories select to stand there. Mordaunt? Harper? Chalk? Cameron? Farage?
A local councillor. Watling could hold on in Clacton, 3 way with Labour and Farage
Be great to see seven times loser Farage become eight times loser instead.
I see people on the previous thread objected to me and others calling Farage a nasty racist. Perhaps if he doesn't want to be called a nasty racist, he shouldn't be a nasty racist?
It's not woke to call a racist a racist, it's the truth.
Well said.
And you are the kind of person needed to drag your Party back after July 5th. @TSE likewise.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
Yet when that happens, eg the SNP, it is denounced regularly on here as precisely the opposite, as undemocratic. Silly, really, as it is the MP, not the Party, that is the basic unit of the Parliament.
I think people should get who they vote for. When fringe parties get elected they face a massive challenge - they have to perform. And generally they don't and they lose badly next time. Burnley elected BNP councillors a few decades back - helped end the BNP.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
The one constant with Farage is he's never toast, but always should be.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
It's a good tip and, given how crap and disorganised a campaigner he is, there's a fair chance.
I'm probably just as interested at the 9/2 on the Conservatives, tbh.
Reform also suffer from lack of local organisation throughout the country.
I think they are going to underperform on the day.
I am coming around to the view that turnout could be exceptionally low in this election.
A lot of Tories are going to sit on their hands, per 1997. Reform are utterly hopeless at getting their vote out. Labour are doing their best not to be interesting and are so obviously going to win big, why bother? Even a lot of SNP supporters are more disenchanted by their own party than thinking about anyone else. The Lib Dems are, correctly, focusing on those seats where they think they have a chance and are token elsewhere.
You have this theory that rage against the Tories will drive turnout and the result. You may be right but I am seeing a lot of ennui.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
Clacton is a complicated seat it seems. Three parties neck and neck where there is a high motivation for supporters of all other parties to vote tactically against Reform. But tactically for whom? If you generally despise the Tories but want to keep Farage out should you vote tactically for the Conservatives or vote Labour?
As no-one knows what's going on in Clacton, 13 - 1 Labour looks excellent value.
Clacton is a prime example of a chaos election in the making. For all that "Farage will win" took root the polls show that it is pretty close.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Couldn’t you argue the case for tories voting Labour?
The trouble is, this isn’t a constituency poll is it? It’s an MRP and that makes me quite nervous about it but it could be worth a flutter.
No. The previous vote in Clacton was Conservative 72&%, Labour 15%.
To put some context into Conservative promises of how they'll fund National Service, tax cuts, etc. etc. - and suggesting that Ms Reeves might have more scope than commonly believed on here:
'Tory ministers claimed new laws introduced in 2017 allowed HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) to pursue accountants, lawyers and bankers who facilitate offshore tax evasion would “create a level playing field”, with potential fines of several millions of pounds.
New figures disclosed under freedom of information laws to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism reveal no one has been fined in the last five years under the powers.
“New HMRC powers are pointless if the powers aren’t then used,” said Dan Neidle, founder of the independent thinktank Tax Policy Associates and former head of tax at global law firm Clifford Chance.'
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs. I think I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour but those will be the things that make be regret it. There will also inevitably be institutional vandalism through a lack of a sense of history.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not sure Tactical Voting websites can cope with Lab/LibDem transfers to Tories. And besides a vote for Conservatives is a wasted vote. Arf arf.
More seriously, do we think Farage in the HoP might actually be a good thing in the long run? Stick him in there with Galloway and have him actually have to deal with constituents (or not) on a regular basis?
No, keep him out - and maintain his record as a serial loser.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Not really. Green and LD could deliver for Labour.
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
Even then, a Labour win would depend on the Con/Ref split being spot-on. Are there enough Conservatives prepared to trek out to Clacton to strangle Reform at late middle age?
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
Why? Its just the entire election writ small.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
If you (a) like Reform a lot and/or want an opportunity to vent and (b) think Lab and Con are two sides of the same coin, then what is there left to think about?
For all the many faults of the present government, and they are legion, those on the right who think that a Labour government is just going to be more of the same are in for a disappointing decade. They may not recognise their country when it is over.
Yep, many have simply forgotten what a Labour government means.
I think a fair few newer voters on the soft left will be surprised at the authoritarianism. The Labour Party has never pretended to be Liberal. You can see the start of it in the promise to bring back ASBOs.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
It's a good tip and, given how crap and disorganised a campaigner he is, there's a fair chance.
I'm probably just as interested at the 9/2 on the Conservatives, tbh.
Yes, I am on that too.
Unusually, I was still able to obtain the 13 decimal odds (i.e. 12/1 in old money) against Labour several minutes after TSE had posted what looks like a worthwhile tip. Incidentally, speaking of betting, why do very experienced hands like TSE, PtP, etc continue to quote Sporting's odds, together with pics of their web pages when in fact this spread-better was acquired by Spreadex earlier this year. Sppreadex's layout, although unsurprisingly similar and equally unsurprisingly identical in terms of their spread prices is both lighter and brighter than Sporting's.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
The one constant with Farage is he's never toast, but always should be.
Alternatively the seven times loser is always toast, but keeps returning like a bad smell.
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
People preferring FPTP or not liking PR is of course fine. However as a fan of PR I do want to challenge other PR fans who think Reform should have zero representation with 10-20% of the vote. Its hypocrisy imo.
I'm a fan of PR who thinks that Reform certainly should have fair representation. In countries with PR, it seems to me that, when elected, extremist parties either end up becoming moderated by the need to actually govern or reveal themselves as clueless. The danger of FPTP is that extremism is allowed to build up such a head of steam that, when its proponents finally do get elected, they have the power to cause great damage.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
True......
“The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Personally I dislike Farage a great deal, but I would never vote Tory tactically to defeat him. Reform and the Tories are basically the same anyway, so if he wins, he wins and he will be in parliament. The good people of his constituency will then be able to judge if he is as lazy and useless as an MP as he was as an MEP. Good luck to them, they will need it.
Well, that's exactly the point. I could easily see a defeated Farage being allowed to join the Tories and ending up with a by-election seat a year or two down the line. For all that the so-called "one nation" Tories want Reform to just fuck off and die, they don't see how Reform-minded their own party has become. Enablers gonna enable.
If Farage loses in Clacton then he is toast.
I would have said that Clacton was one of his bread and butter seats.....
Farage in parliament gives the BBC and other useful idiots an opportunity to keep platforming him.
No. Keep him out.
For those who believe in PR, do they really want Reform to get 0 seats from 10-20% of the vote?
Yes.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
Alternatively, it shows the value in keeping FPTP.
This is a point that seems lost on many posters.
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
A pedant notes: that's a justification put forward for keeping the current system, rather than what it was designed to do. Inasmuch as it was designed at all, it was for something 200-odd years ago. It's a system we have almost by accident.
Clacton is a complicated seat it seems. Three parties neck and neck where there is a high motivation for supporters of all other parties to vote tactically against Reform. But tactically for whom? If you generally despise the Tories but want to keep Farage out should you vote tactically for the Conservatives or vote Labour?
As no-one knows what's going on in Clacton, 13 - 1 Labour looks excellent value.
Clacton is a prime example of a chaos election in the making. For all that "Farage will win" took root the polls show that it is pretty close.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Couldn’t you argue the case for tories voting Labour?
The trouble is, this isn’t a constituency poll is it? It’s an MRP and that makes me quite nervous about it but it could be worth a flutter.
No. The previous vote in Clacton was Conservative 72&%, Labour 15%.
It's Tory - or Farage.
You were a voter there, how would you vote?
Good question MM.
I don’t know. I did say the other day that I would even vote Conservative to keep out Farage and I meant it.
Because it’s genuinely more 3-way there and because I think Labour are going to do pretty well nationally (37-42%) I’d probably vote Labour but a last minute decision and if I saw evidence the Conservative could win, I’d hold my nose and vote for him. As someone else mentioned ( @Foxy ?) it’s the only place they would vote Conservative.
I wish we could have some actual constituency polling though?
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Couldn’t you argue the case for tories voting Labour?
The trouble is, this isn’t a constituency poll is it? It’s an MRP and that makes me quite nervous about it but it could be worth a flutter.
No. The previous vote in Clacton was Conservative 72&%, Labour 15%.
It's Tory - or Farage.
You were a voter there, how would you vote?
Climate party for me. Its a green conservative party - and for me it would be a signal for the Green party to be a bit more err, green, and the Conservative party to be a bit more, err, conservative, so I could consider voting for them in the future.
How many Labour/LibDem voters will want to risk letting in Farage as their MP? If there is one seat for tactical voting to support the Tory candidate, this is it...
Couldn’t you argue the case for tories voting Labour?
The trouble is, this isn’t a constituency poll is it? It’s an MRP and that makes me quite nervous about it but it could be worth a flutter.
No. The previous vote in Clacton was Conservative 72&%, Labour 15%.
It's Tory - or Farage.
You were a voter there, how would you vote?
For some of us the current iteration of the Conservative Party is but a notch away from Reform. I'd vote for whoever might come through the middle of them.
Comments
Difficult to know who is the best TV against Farage in Clacton.
It will be so funny if Lab wins there.
I see people on the previous thread objected to me and others calling Farage a nasty racist. Perhaps if he doesn't want to be called a nasty racist, he shouldn't be a nasty racist?
It's not woke to call a racist a racist, it's the truth.
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/4717755-trump-says-remaining-bitcoin-must-be-made-in-us/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jun/14/he-was-a-deeply-unembarrassed-racist-nigel-farage-by-those-who-have-known-him
... which is usually my forte ;-)
The problem however is the media are generating their scoop for the 4th July by cosying up to Farage. Isn't he on Kuenssberg today?
More seriously, do we think Farage in the HoP might actually be a good thing in the long run? Stick him in there with Galloway and have him actually have to deal with constituents (or not) on a regular basis?
Just put a tiny sum on this. Only got a smattering of small bets, constituencies (Clacton-Con, Richmond-Lab, Tewkesbury-Lib), Con to get 150-199 seats (looking red), Lab to get an outright majority (quietly confident).
But, objectively, Farage taking just enough votes to let Labour in would, objectively, be very very funny.
They should be kicked out of the tournament for violating the spirit of cricket, again.
Labour would probably have won anyway, it is time for a change and the Tories are exhausted, but the massacre will be a result of Reform/Farage splitting the centre right vote in 2. I think Farage is ok with that; he just needs someone to rail against and a dominant Labour government will do fine. Whether Reform voters have thought this through, however, is another matter.
No. Keep him out.
https://x.com/_SalmanAnwar/status/1801291493984063702?t=Jiwj-nswRwHFW6LSCR0Wog&s=19
This tournament will end before election day.
The BBC will find a reason to invite him on the Daily Fucking Farage till he dies
From the off, this election has been Labour’s to lose – and boy does it know it. I say...this as a compliment to the professionalism of the Labour campaign, not least because I’ve witnessed so many past contests in which the party lacked the ferocious focus and the steely will to prevail in the brutal contact sport of electoral politics.
As we puff past the halfway mark, journalists pronounce themselves bored with Labour. Meant as an insult, it is flattery in the ears of Sir Keir’s team. The media thirsts for drama and novelty, but the Labour team’s contrary belief is that most voters currently crave stability and predictability.
The manifesto does indeed contain nothing you would not already know if you’ve been paying reasonably close attention to the “missions” and the “first steps” previously unveiled. That doesn’t make it fair to damn it as a timid prospectus. On the likes of housebuilding, clean power and achieving sustainably higher growth, the longer-term goals are almost heroically ambitious.
The Tories are the party for those preferring one that frantically sprays out unfunded, slapdash, last-minute wheezes. As a strategy, that doesn’t seem to be working out all that well for Rishi Sunak.
Unless the entire polling industry is perpetrating the howler of all time, he will be entering Downing Street in less than three weeks’ time. It will be a dazzling achievement to take Labour into power just five years after the party’s worst defeat since the 1930s. Those who want to cavil will say that the main propellant of Sir Keir’s success is not desire to see him in power, but loathing for the Tories. This is not such a killer point as some imagine it to be. The unpopularity of their opponents played a large part in putting Tony Blair in Number 10 in 1997 and Margaret Thatcher in 1979.
There are two worms of unease wriggling in Labour’s guts. One is that forecasts of a Starmer mega-majority may so alarm rightwing voters that they pinch their noses and rally to the Tories. Mr Sunak’s crew is already desperate enough to be implicitly conceding defeat by publicising graphics suggesting Tory parliamentary representation could be so eviscerated that there will be no meaningful opposition to a Labour government. The other concern for Labour is that there is an “enthusiasm deficit” that will mean victory is tainted by a depressed turnout. Some Labour frontbenchers think the time is coming when there needs to be more effort to lift the spirits of the electorate. One of the leader’s team agrees that “we need to make things sing” in the run-up to polling day. What more can the Labour campaign add? Food for the soul. Providing, of course, it is fully costed.
I wouldn't expect to see him outside the subsidised bars.
Because it will increase the pressure for a fair voting system.
You can't have either miraculous growth or tax cuts in an economy dominated by property speculation and a constant net flow of wealth to the elderly.
I'm probably just as interested at the 9/2 on the Conservatives, tbh.
And you are the kind of person needed to drag your Party back after July 5th. @TSE likewise.
The trouble is, this isn’t a constituency poll is it? It’s an MRP and that makes me quite nervous about it but it could be worth a flutter.
https://x.com/trebiepolitics/status/1801978335200723125?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
The “weird” projections we are seeing are precisely the point of FPTP which is designed to keep fringe parties out unless and until they can demonstrate deep support in one or more local constituencies.
It’s not “undemocratic”.
If I were in Clacton however...
I think they are going to underperform on the day.
As no-one knows what's going on in Clacton, 13 - 1 Labour looks excellent value.
Just vote for the party that you most like. Simples.
A lot of Tories are going to sit on their hands, per 1997.
Reform are utterly hopeless at getting their vote out.
Labour are doing their best not to be interesting and are so obviously going to win big, why bother?
Even a lot of SNP supporters are more disenchanted by their own party than thinking about anyone else.
The Lib Dems are, correctly, focusing on those seats where they think they have a chance and are token elsewhere.
You have this theory that rage against the Tories will drive turnout and the result. You may be right but I am seeing a lot of ennui.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jun/15/labour-and-tories-would-both-leave-nhs-worse-off-than-under-austerity-says-thinktank
Expect a fair number of "no way!" results...
It's Tory - or Farage.
You were a voter there, how would you vote?
The man hypes more than a pollster tweeting in advance of a poll.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/16/hmrc-has-failed-to-fine-a-single-enabler-of-offshore-tax-in-five-years
'Tory ministers claimed new laws introduced in 2017 allowed HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) to pursue accountants, lawyers and bankers who facilitate offshore tax evasion would “create a level playing field”, with potential fines of several millions of pounds.
New figures disclosed under freedom of information laws to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism reveal no one has been fined in the last five years under the powers.
“New HMRC powers are pointless if the powers aren’t then used,” said Dan Neidle, founder of the independent thinktank Tax Policy Associates and former head of tax at global law firm Clifford Chance.'
Incidentally, speaking of betting, why do very experienced hands like TSE, PtP, etc continue to quote Sporting's odds, together with pics of their web pages when in fact this spread-better was acquired by Spreadex earlier this year. Sppreadex's layout, although unsurprisingly similar and equally unsurprisingly identical in terms of their spread prices is both lighter and brighter than Sporting's.
“The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
I don’t know. I did say the other day that I would even vote Conservative to keep out Farage and I meant it.
Because it’s genuinely more 3-way there and because I think Labour are going to do pretty well nationally (37-42%) I’d probably vote Labour but a last minute decision and if I saw evidence the Conservative could win, I’d hold my nose and vote for him. As someone else mentioned ( @Foxy ?) it’s the only place they would vote Conservative.
I wish we could have some actual constituency polling though?