well it's more Pole dancing but your string's slipping.
Nobody would claim that having to save the banking system is somehow a "benefit", it's a poor consolation prize for a royal screw up.
Your point on lack of demand is just guff. There is demand which just can't find credit at a realistic price, whether it's first time buyers being asked for historically high deposits or as has been the case businesses being pre-screened before making a credit submission and thereby never making the statistics. Unless I've missed it it remains the case that big corporates can obtain easy credit they don't need and SMEs are still struggling. Banks still haven't achieved the SME targets on lending HMG has set. Banks are simply changing the hurdles and then saying nobody wants to jump.
Competition keeps companies clean, oligoplies don't. There's a difference between pricing to win business and pricing for profit. Your point on regulation is just silly by supporting the principle of not letting banks go you are merely reinforcing the incentive to cheat.
On RBS there will be no movement for several years and since time is money the idea we are going to get our money back is just plain naive.
Some truth in para 3, Mr. Brooke, but just parrying in 1-2 and 4-5.
The Bank of England publish a monthly Credit Conditions Survey which attempts to measure the interplay of credit demand, supply, costs and credit criteria. A study of the reports will show that lending to SMEs has suffered most, if not all, from lack of demand.
The problem has been lack of confidence in the near to mid term future of the economy which has caused business owners to hold back on investment plans rather than increase their exposures to debt. This is definitely changing and lending to SMEs is picking up and, accepting your points on credit criteria and availability being contributory, being accelerated by lowering cost of funds and higher capitalisation of banks.
Banks are however forecasting a faster rate of growth in lending to medium sized firms than the small units. The large corporates have also being deleveraging but in addition they have increasing the proportion of funds they borrow directly from the financial markets over that they borrow using traditional bank products. Such flexibility is not available to the SMEs, particularly the smaller firms who tend to be looking for overdraft finance.
well it's more Pole dancing but your string's slipping.
Nobody would claim that having to save the banking system is somehow a "benefit", it's a poor consolation prize for a royal screw up. .
On RBS there will be no movement for several years and since time is money the idea we are going to get our money back is just plain naive.
Some truth in para 3, Mr. Brooke, but just parrying in 1-2 and 4-5.
The Bank of England publish a monthly Credit Conditions Survey which attempts to measure the interplay of credit demand, supply, costs and credit criteria. A study of the reports will show that lending to SMEs has suffered most, if not all, from lack of demand.
The problem has been lack of confidence in the near to mid term future of the economy which has caused business owners to hold back on investment plans rather than increase their exposures to debt. This is definitely changing and lending to SMEs is picking up and, accepting your points on credit criteria and availability being contributory, being accelerated by lowering cost of funds and higher capitalisation of banks.
Banks are however forecasting a faster rate of growth in lending to medium sized firms than the small units. The large corporates have also being deleveraging but in addition they have increasing the proportion of funds they borrow directly from the financial markets over that they borrow using traditional bank products. Such flexibility is not available to the SMEs, particularly the smaller firms who tend to be looking for overdraft finance.
Spilt milk of course Mr P, but GO needed to get the larger corporates to loosen their investment purse strings in the middle of this Parlt. This is where I think a more aggressive approach to capital spending on infrastructure would have made a difference.
On SMEs there are quite a variety of instruments open if you know where to look. IMO the problem is too many entrepreneurs just don't have the required knowledge of where to look and the traditional sources have sort of closed their doors while pretending they haven't.
You can't just let a bank go bust today. Too big to fail? Too right. It is realpolitik in just the same way as the 2nd Fleet isn't going to mobilise against Russia.
Does it introduce moral hazard? You betcha but there is no alternative (tm).
That said, you can't then in the same breath invoke the austerity dilemma, namely why are our banks going bust why aren't they lending?
They had balance sheet repair drummed into them to within an inch of their lives but they are now supposed to lend to every SME who presents themselves at their front door?
Not going to happen and probably rightly so.
It is an imperfect world and this is one manifestation of such a world. It is also intellectually coherent.
Meanwhile, how much longer is this steady stream of bad publicity on the police going to continue before the public perception is dented irrevocably?
Caroline Flint on AQ making a well-received point and others are making the same one.
All those who were pilloried for querying the whiter-than-whiteness of the police (and MPS in particular) should take some meagre satisfaction although I hope it won't please them.
"Forget all those foreign correspondents, says Dalrymple. If you really want to learn about the political situation in Ukraine, listen to one Ukrainian plumber:
'He told us why he had left his native country a few years before: Everyone there was corrupt, nothing was possible without bribery, the opposition was as bad as the government, and all political demonstrations, which were frequent even then, were entirely bogus. Indeed, political demonstrations had become a form of social security, the political system’s corrupt and vastly rich oligarchs paying a small daily subvention to the otherwise unemployed who agreed to demonstrate in their favor. There was nothing to choose between the government and opposition except the size of the daily payments that they offered, which varied from day to day like the stock market. Principle didn’t come into it; demonstrators changed from pro-government to pro-opposition and vice versa, according to the amount on offer.'"
You can't just let a bank go bust today. Too big to fail? Too right. It is realpolitik in just the same way as the 2nd Fleet isn't going to mobilise against Russia.
Does it introduce moral hazard? You betcha but there is no alternative (tm).
That said, you can't then in the same breath invoke the austerity dilemma, namely why are our banks going bust why aren't they lending?
They had balance sheet repair drummed into them to within an inch of their lives but they are now supposed to lend to every SME who presents themselves at their front door?
Not going to happen and probably rightly so.
It is an imperfect world and this is one manifestation of such a world. It is also intellectually coherent.
That's a stupid comment. Nobody is advocating to let a bank go under, when a bank fails the creditors are protected to a level by a central bank. What going bust means is that the shareholders get wiped out and the board get nixed. That tends to concetrate minds.
However I'd say you haven't grasped the issue on risk management. Fewer but bigger banks concetrates risk. Numerous but smaller means the system can live with a failure since the quantum involved is more manageable. Letting a bank see it can fail removes more hazard.
As for the austerity dilemna if the banks were free standing you would have a point, but they're not they benefit from a variety of taxpayer support programmes designed to make them advance credit. That they are failing the government's own targets doesn't appear to make you worry about value for money or indeed question the purpose of the banking sector actually is.
1) Oh God. "Tidal wave" of support. Yeah right. 2) The NotW did some decent exposes, for instance the Pakistani cricketers. 3) You are meant to be a serious political party, not Pravda.
What the hell are you going on about, JJ?
Evidently you did not read the press release you linked to. They are references to items that were within that rather awful release. Since 'tidal wave' is no longer in the release, I guess they have altered it since you first posted it to 'rapid rise'.
It's pathetic, rewriting a post when I didn't even notice the 'tidal wave' reference was in the title. ;-)
Anyone got any views on which are the best value odds at present in the UK GE betting markets for seats which Con, Lab and LD might win respectively at odds of better than evens?
For Con wins, there seem to be quite a few good choices around, but I'm drawn to 9/4 for them to take Torbay with Ladbrokes (Paddy Power are offering only 6/4).
For Lab wins, I don't fancy any of the Con-Lab contests. I agree with OGH that there's better value in backing Lab nationally than the constituencies. But if pushed I would settle for another 9/4 for Lab to finally topple Hughes in Bermondsey and Old Southwark. The London assembly results in the constituency had Labour miles ahead the LDs on both the FPTP and list votes.
For the LDs, I'm not tempted by anything at above evens in the constituency markets. The "predict the seats" market seems better value where you can almost get evens on a combined bet that they will avoid meltdown with a seat outcome will be in range of 31 to 50.
Any thoughts?
There is very little value in these markets IMO.As for anything over evens,if pressed,I would put up Julian Huppert to hold on in Cambridge at 11-10,backed already at higher prices.A 7.4% swing is needed for Labour and the L/Ds may just squeeze the Tory vote enough. If Farage does stand in South Thanet the 5-2 won't last long.
As a long-standing Labour member in Bermondsey I wouldn't risk a penny on the party being able to beat Simon Hughes here. We see it every five years with the same slogan "Everybody in Bermondsey knows someone who has been helped by Simon Hughes".
It works because it happens to be true as I can testify. His help for me and my family during a very difficult period 15 years ago is something I will be grateful to him until I die. Although I'm totally hostile to the Liberals I couldn't bring myself to vote against Simon and I really wish him well. He's a good man.
You raise an aspect that barely gets noticed on PB. At a general election we choose an individual to be our person at Westminster. We don't elect a party or a prime minister. In many seats it's the perceptions of the incumbent that are paramount.
The banks are the root cause of the problem but they've bought the political class so nothing will be done about it.
Simple question: why did the majority of countries, businesses and individuals all start borrowing too much at the exact same time?
Answer: because the banks massively reduced the cost of borrowing at that time.
Why won't any member of the political class mention that or discuss what needs to be done to prevent the banks being able to trash the entire global economy more or less at whim?
The Hodges' piece posted earlier is less of a dramatic revelation than he, and some posters on here would like it to be. Consider, for example his third and "most amazing" revelation, about an alleged phonecall between the partner of an officer and the media. Now if he had bothered to read the Crown's statement of 26 November 2013, he would have learnt that:
There is information, but no admissible evidence, which suggests that an officer’s partner contacted the media, introducing the word “morons” into the press. However, that person is not a public officer and therefore cannot be considered for an offence of misconduct in public office.
His most sensational discovery is therefore nothing new. As for the second officer he mentions, it is perfectly plain that contact with former Constable Wallis, even when denied in interview, is not evidence of a criminal conspiracy against Mr Mitchell, notwithstanding its disciplinary consequences. As for the first officer mentioned by Hodges, the Crown statement quoted above makes clear that they were aware that police officers had passed the police log to the media. They considered that a jury would acquit on a charge of misconduct in a public office, because the officer in question would be able to mount a defence that the leak was in the public interest.
So the Hodges' piece contains nothing new at all. Moreover, it provides no evidence that Constable Rowland's account of the incident in Downing Street was untrue or misleading. That would be difficult because the said constable has never even been interviewed under caution about that account. The police investigation and subsequent proceedings (both criminal and disciplinary) have proceeded on the basis that the misconduct related only to inappropriate contact with the media rather than whether Mr Mitchell or Constable Rowland was telling the truth. The question Mr Hodges might want to ask, rather than rehashing what was already in the public domain as groundbreaking revelations, is why that was indeed the starting point of the investigation.
"Forget all those foreign correspondents, says Dalrymple. If you really want to learn about the political situation in Ukraine, listen to one Ukrainian plumber:
'He told us why he had left his native country a few years before: Everyone there was corrupt, nothing was possible without bribery, the opposition was as bad as the government, and all political demonstrations, which were frequent even then, were entirely bogus. Indeed, political demonstrations had become a form of social security, the political system’s corrupt and vastly rich oligarchs paying a small daily subvention to the otherwise unemployed who agreed to demonstrate in their favor. There was nothing to choose between the government and opposition except the size of the daily payments that they offered, which varied from day to day like the stock market. Principle didn’t come into it; demonstrators changed from pro-government to pro-opposition and vice versa, according to the amount on offer.'"
Andy, this is a really excellent description of ordinary life in the Ukraine (and to a lesser extent Russia, certainly outside Moscow).
It may be a little cynical but it is based on unchallengeable truth.
This is why the EU should keep a safe distance from the Ukraine and not be forced by geo-political ambitions from taking on a culture and economy that is massively different from that in Western Europe.
Not an argument for non-engagement just for slow, patient, cautious and multi-lateral support.
"Forget all those foreign correspondents, says Dalrymple. If you really want to learn about the political situation in Ukraine, listen to one Ukrainian plumber:
'He told us why he had left his native country a few years before: Everyone there was corrupt, nothing was possible without bribery, the opposition was as bad as the government, and all political demonstrations, which were frequent even then, were entirely bogus. Indeed, political demonstrations had become a form of social security, the political system’s corrupt and vastly rich oligarchs paying a small daily subvention to the otherwise unemployed who agreed to demonstrate in their favor. There was nothing to choose between the government and opposition except the size of the daily payments that they offered, which varied from day to day like the stock market. Principle didn’t come into it; demonstrators changed from pro-government to pro-opposition and vice versa, according to the amount on offer.'"
Andy, this is a really excellent description of ordinary life in the Ukraine (and to a lesser extent Russia, certainly outside Moscow).
It may be a little cynical but it is based on unchallengeable truth.
This is why the EU should keep a safe distance from the Ukraine and not be forced by geo-political ambitions from taking on a culture and economy that is massively different from that in Western Europe.
Not an argument for non-engagement just for slow, patient, cautious and multi-lateral support.
Mr Pole while we often disagree on the economy ( you know you're wrong but just won't admit it !) , I do enjoy your posts on Eastern Europe and Russia in particular.
I think Putin has probably committed an error in his approach in trying to crystalise a crisis. In time he will only harden attitudes and drive a line down the middle of the country which will then become a problem for both the Ukraine and Russia. Ultimately I think the 3 russian majority provinces will leave ( crimea, donetsk,lugansk ). Charles Crawford the ex-ambassador implied this would be a loss for Putin since this will stop him having the ability to leverage the Ukraine and create an EU buffer state on his borders over which he has much less influence.
"Forget all those foreign correspondents, says Dalrymple. If you really want to learn about the political situation in Ukraine, listen to one Ukrainian plumber:
'He told us why he had left his native country a few years before: Everyone there was corrupt, nothing was possible without bribery, the opposition was as bad as the government, and all political demonstrations, which were frequent even then, were entirely bogus. Indeed, political demonstrations had become a form of social security, the political system’s corrupt and vastly rich oligarchs paying a small daily subvention to the otherwise unemployed who agreed to demonstrate in their favor. There was nothing to choose between the government and opposition except the size of the daily payments that they offered, which varied from day to day like the stock market. Principle didn’t come into it; demonstrators changed from pro-government to pro-opposition and vice versa, according to the amount on offer.'"
Andy, this is a really excellent description of ordinary life in the Ukraine (and to a lesser extent Russia, certainly outside Moscow).
It may be a little cynical but it is based on unchallengeable truth.
This is why the EU should keep a safe distance from the Ukraine and not be forced by geo-political ambitions from taking on a culture and economy that is massively different from that in Western Europe.
Not an argument for non-engagement just for slow, patient, cautious and multi-lateral support.
Many years ago I was part of a professional delegation to a small S. European country. We met with our professional colleagues, who complained bitterly that the professional association was being badly treated by the "corrupt" Government. It very quickly became clear to me that they were not complaining about corruption per se; they were complaining that they were with the "out of powers" and so weren't getting their "share" of the corruption.
Strong critique of David Cameron from Allister Heath in this morning's City AM though I'm less convinced of the poll featured in his article. I've not seen this research featured anywhere else.
Andy, this is a really excellent description of ordinary life in the Ukraine (and to a lesser extent Russia, certainly outside Moscow).
It may be a little cynical but it is based on unchallengeable truth.
This is why the EU should keep a safe distance from the Ukraine and not be forced by geo-political ambitions from taking on a culture and economy that is massively different from that in Western Europe.
Not an argument for non-engagement just for slow, patient, cautious and multi-lateral support.
Mr Pole while we often disagree on the economy ( you know you're wrong but just won't admit it !) , I do enjoy your posts on Eastern Europe and Russia in particular.
I think Putin has probably committed an error in his approach in trying to crystalise a crisis. In time he will only harden attitudes and drive a line down the middle of the country which will then become a problem for both the Ukraine and Russia. Ultimately I think the 3 russian majority provinces will leave ( crimea, donetsk,lugansk ). Charles Crawford the ex-ambassador implied this would be a loss for Putin since this will stop him having the ability to leverage the Ukraine and create an EU buffer state on his borders over which he has much less influence.
Maybe the answer is to split the Ukraine.
I realise that would leave the impoverished Western half struggling to survive but at least they would be ethnically committed to their own country with no conflicts about looking West to the EU.
The East of the Ukraine is so integrated with the Russian economy and culture that it would resist any external attempt to change it. If change were to work it would have to come from Moscow and percolate down.
So I wouldn't shed any tears if the current crisis led to partition. And I would far prefer the EU, US and IMF to throw money at a country and people who were committed to start afresh without trying to serve two masters.
As to NATO and EU borders encroaching on Russia, I am not certain that Putin will be that concerned. The problem with NATO is that its existence is predicated on a threat from Russia. That doesn't apply today beyond the Russo-Slavic territories where NATO is afraid to venture. So does it really make much difference to the geo-politics? A little loss of pride perhaps at the gain of an end to internal division within the Russian territories. I know which I would choose if I were Putin.
Alex Salmond’s blueprint for separation suffered another body blow when senior economists at a leading global bank said they were “astonished” by his refusal to outline a Plan B on currency.
In a detailed analysis, Citigroup outlined a range of concerns over independence, and suggested a separate Scotland could have the same credit rating as Trinidad & Tobago.
Alex Salmond’s blueprint for separation suffered another body blow when senior economists at a leading global bank said they were “astonished” by his refusal to outline a Plan B on currency.
In a detailed analysis, Citigroup outlined a range of concerns over independence, and suggested a separate Scotland could have the same credit rating as Trinidad & Tobago.
Andy, this is a really excellent description of ordinary life in the Ukraine (and to a lesser extent Russia, certainly outside Moscow).
It may be a little cynical but it is based on unchallengeable truth.
This is why the EU should keep a safe distance from the Ukraine and not be forced by geo-political ambitions from taking on a culture and economy that is massively different from that in Western Europe.
Not an argument for non-engagement just for slow, patient, cautious and multi-lateral support.
Many years ago I was part of a professional delegation to a small S. European country. We met with our professional colleagues, who complained bitterly that the professional association was being badly treated by the "corrupt" Government. It very quickly became clear to me that they were not complaining about corruption per se; they were complaining that they were with the "out of powers" and so weren't getting their "share" of the corruption.
OKC
Charles responded to the post I made claiming that Putin was less corrupt than his predecessors and FSU peers by pointing out that the coffers of offshore banks were burgeoning with Putin cash.
The answer is that both posts were true. The difference is relative not absolute.
All my dreams of working with a Russian individual or company that wasn't 'corrupt' were eventually shattered. The best you could hope for was to be identified as someone not corrupt and therefore to be circumvented and lied to. A compliment of sorts I suppose.
Another post on PB which chimed recently was about China and how the Chinese were family obsessed. The same applies in Russia. It is not so much a love of family but a complete mistrust of any societal structure outside of the family. Neighbours, employers, schools and universities were viewed favourably but not really trusted. As for government and state, nothing was trusted.
In that environment, why resist the rare opportunity for personal and family gain and place your faith for long term reward in your employer or the state? The answer is the same from the most lowly to the highest in the land. Take what you can when you can because tomorrow everything might be different.
And yes, ally with the powerful. They are the source of your rewards.
Andy, this is a really excellent description of ordinary life in the Ukraine (and to a lesser extent Russia, certainly outside Moscow).
It may be a little cynical but it is based on unchallengeable truth.
This is why the EU should keep a safe distance from the Ukraine and not be forced by geo-political ambitions from taking on a culture and economy that is massively different from that in Western Europe.
Not an argument for non-engagement just for slow, patient, cautious and multi-lateral support.
s borders over which he has much less influence.
Maybe the answer is to split the Ukraine.
I realise that would leave the impoverished Western half struggling to survive but at least they would be ethnically committed to their own country with no conflicts about looking West to the EU.
The East of the Ukraine is so integrated with the Russian economy and culture that it would resist any external attempt to change it. If change were to work it would have to come from Moscow and percolate down.
So I wouldn't shed any tears if the current crisis led to partition. And I would far prefer the EU, US and IMF to throw money at a country and people who were committed to start afresh without trying to serve two masters.
As to NATO and EU borders encroaching on Russia, I am not certain that Putin will be that concerned. The problem with NATO is that its existence is predicated on a threat from Russia. That doesn't apply today beyond the Russo-Slavic territories where NATO is afraid to venture. So does it really make much difference to the geo-politics? A little loss of pride perhaps at the gain of an end to internal division within the Russian territories. I know which I would choose if I were Putin.
I tend to view the current Ukranian borders as unsustainable. I could accept a harder line on Russia post a plebiscite since the current borders are as much a reflection of ethnic make up as some african countries.
On the other hand I do wonder how the reaction would be on the near abroad. Transnistria would struggle, hostile neighbours, no access for russian troops and little chance of joining the Motherland. The baltics would become more determined to stay free than ever. And Belarus could jump either way.
THe Odessa Oblast will decide the fate of transdniester. If Odessa goes with West Ukraine then Transdniester is not viable, but if Odessa goes with Crimea and the East it loses its hinterland. A difficult one to forecast.
Moldova may want re-unification with Romania as a quick way into the EU, there is a movement there already.
Andy, this is a really excellent description of ordinary life in the Ukraine (and to a lesser extent Russia, certainly outside Moscow).
It may be a little cynical but it is based on unchallengeable truth.
This is why the EU should keep a safe distance from the Ukraine and not be forced by geo-political ambitions from taking on a culture and economy that is massively different from that in Western Europe.
Not an argument for non-engagement just for slow, patient, cautious and multi-lateral support.
s borders over which he has much less influence.
Maybe the answer is to split the Ukraine.
I realise that would leave the impoverished Western half struggling to survive but at least they would be ethnically committed to their own country with no conflicts about looking West to the EU.
The East of the Ukraine is so integrated with the Russian economy and culture that it would resist any external attempt to change it. If change were to work it would have to come from Moscow and percolate down.
So I wouldn't shed any tears if the current crisis led to partition. And I would far prefer the EU, US and IMF to throw money at a country and people who were committed to start afresh without trying to serve two masters.
As to NATO and EU borders encroaching on Russia, I am not certain that Putin will be that concerned. The problem with NATO is that its existence is predicated on a threat from Russia. That doesn't apply today beyond the Russo-Slavic territories where NATO is afraid to venture. So does it really make much difference to the geo-politics? A little loss of pride perhaps at the gain of an end to internal division within the Russian territories. I know which I would choose if I were Putin.
I tend to view the current Ukranian borders as unsustainable. I could accept a harder line on Russia post a plebiscite since the current borders are as much a reflection of ethnic make up as some african countries.
On the other hand I do wonder how the reaction would be on the near abroad. Transnistria would struggle, hostile neighbours, no access for russian troops and little chance of joining the Motherland. The baltics would become more determined to stay free than ever. And Belarus could jump either way.
I tend to view the current Ukranian borders as unsustainable. I could accept a harder line on Russia post a plebiscite since the current borders are as much a reflection of ethnic make up as some african countries.
On the other hand I do wonder how the reaction would be on the near abroad. Transnistria would struggle, hostile neighbours, no access for russian troops and little chance of joining the Motherland. The baltics would become more determined to stay free than ever. And Belarus could jump either way.
Transnistria is a problem that would need to be solved by relocation.
The Baltics are already free and happy (at least Estonia and Latvia) to benefit from being bidirectional gateways between Russia and the West. Latvia, in particular, is a great example of how a large population of Russian ethnic origin can co-exist to mutual benefit. The Russian speakers there consider that being a Latvian Russian is superior to the real thing.
Estonia is a little different. I kept on being driven around the environs of Tallinn to be shown the differences between Russian areas (untidy, uncared for, noisy) and Estonian areas (newly painted, clean, quiet). It didn't have that much effect on me as I had been brought up to make the same distinctions between the environs of Swiss French and those of the French French. Estonians and Russians don't mix as well as the Latvians and Russians but there is limited resentment now the Estonians are in control.
Belarus is very different. A very conservative country socially - even at personal and family level - there is little clamour to be free of the Russian yoke. A demand for a less corrupt and more socially supportive government certainly but not a switch away from Russia to the EU. It would take a long period of demonstrable success of EU affiliation by their Southern neighbour for Belarus to be tempted away from Moscow.
THe Odessa Oblast will decide the fate of transdniester. If Odessa goes with West Ukraine then Transdniester is not viable, but if Odessa goes with Crimea and the East it loses its hinterland. A difficult one to forecast.
Moldova may want re-unification with Romania as a quick way into the EU, there is a movement there already.
I realise that would leave the impoverished Western half struggling to survive but at least they would be ethnically committed to their own country with no conflicts about looking West to the EU.
The East of the Ukraine is so integrated with the Russian economy and culture that it would resist any external attempt to change it. If change were to work it would have to come from Moscow and percolate down.
So I wouldn't shed any tears if the current crisis led to partition. And I would far prefer the EU, US and IMF to throw money at a country and people who were committed to start afresh without trying to serve two masters.
As to NATO and EU borders encroaching on Russia, I am not certain that Putin will be that concerned. The problem with NATO is that its existence is predicated on a threat from Russia. That doesn't apply today beyond the Russo-Slavic territories where NATO is afraid to venture. So does it really make much difference to the geo-politics? A little loss of pride perhaps at the gain of an end to internal division within the Russian territories. I know which I would choose if I were Putin.
I tend to view the current Ukranian borders as unsustainable. I could accept a harder line on Russia post a plebiscite since the current borders are as much a reflection of ethnic make up as some african countries.
On the other hand I do wonder how the reaction would be on the near abroad. Transnistria would struggle, hostile neighbours, no access for russian troops and little chance of joining the Motherland. The baltics would become more determined to stay free than ever. And Belarus could jump either way.
Strong critique of David Cameron from Allister Heath in this morning's City AM though I'm less convinced of the poll featured in his article. I've not seen this research featured anywhere else.
I've seen some polls before on similar lines and encountered it on the doorstep. As with wealthy Indian families, the expat East Europeans tend to feel that the Conservatives are personally unfriendly, which trumps general right-leaning tendencies. That said, lots of East Europeans just don't vote at all in local elections, so we're only talking about the minority who naturalise.
Strong critique of David Cameron from Allister Heath in this morning's City AM though I'm less convinced of the poll featured in his article. I've not seen this research featured anywhere else.
I've seen some polls before on similar lines and encountered it on the doorstep. As with wealthy Indian families, the expat East Europeans tend to feel that the Conservatives are personally unfriendly, which trumps general right-leaning tendencies. That said, lots of East Europeans just don't vote at all in local elections, so we're only talking about the minority who naturalise.
You have to pay them to vote, Nick.
It would help your chances in Broxtowe to have the visible accoutrements of an oligarch.
Strong critique of David Cameron from Allister Heath in this morning's City AM though I'm less convinced of the poll featured in his article. I've not seen this research featured anywhere else.
I've seen some polls before on similar lines and encountered it on the doorstep. As with wealthy Indian families, the expat East Europeans tend to feel that the Conservatives are personally unfriendly, which trumps general right-leaning tendencies. That said, lots of East Europeans just don't vote at all in local elections, so we're only talking about the minority who naturalise.
These East Europeans that you speak with, how do they feel about the Communist dictatorships that you once supported and they lived under ?
Kaliningrad is one of the wealthiest Oblasts and has a useful port and city, I can see why the Russians will keep that. I cannot see Transdneister being any way desireable.
THe Odessa Oblast will decide the fate of transdniester. If Odessa goes with West Ukraine then Transdniester is not viable, but if Odessa goes with Crimea and the East it loses its hinterland. A difficult one to forecast.
Moldova may want re-unification with Romania as a quick way into the EU, there is a movement there already.
I realise that would leave the impoverished Western half struggling to survive but at least they would be ethnically committed to their own country with no conflicts about looking West to the EU.
The East of the Ukraine is so integrated with the Russian economy and culture that it would resist any external attempt to change it. If change were to work it would have to come from Moscow and percolate down.
So I wouldn't shed any tears if the current crisis led to partition. And I would far prefer the EU, US and IMF to throw money at a country and people who were committed to start afresh without trying to serve two masters.
As to NATO and EU borders encroaching on Russia, I am not certain that Putin will be that concerned. The problem with NATO is that its existence is predicated on a threat from Russia. That doesn't apply today beyond the Russo-Slavic territories where NATO is afraid to venture. So does it really make much difference to the geo-politics? A little loss of pride perhaps at the gain of an end to internal division within the Russian territories. I know which I would choose if I were Putin.
I tend to view the current Ukranian borders as unsustainable. I could accept a harder line on Russia post a plebiscite since the current borders are as much a reflection of ethnic make up as some african countries.
On the other hand I do wonder how the reaction would be on the near abroad. Transnistria would struggle, hostile neighbours, no access for russian troops and little chance of joining the Motherland. The baltics would become more determined to stay free than ever. And Belarus could jump either way.
Kaliningrad is one of the wealthiest Oblasts and has a useful port and city, I can see why the Russians will keep that. I cannot see Transdneister being any way desireable.
THe Odessa Oblast will decide the fate of transdniester. If Odessa goes with West Ukraine then Transdniester is not viable, but if Odessa goes with Crimea and the East it loses its hinterland. A difficult one to forecast.
Moldova may want re-unification with Romania as a quick way into the EU, there is a movement there already.
I realise that would leave the impoverished Western half struggling to survive but at least they would be ethnically committed to their own country with no conflicts about looking West to the EU.
The East of the Ukraine is so integrated with the Russian economy and culture that it would resist any external attempt to change it. If change were to work it would have to come from Moscow and percolate down.
So I wouldn't shed any tears if the current crisis led to partition. And I would far prefer the EU, US and IMF to throw money at a country and people who were committed to start afresh without trying to serve two masters.
As to NATO and EU borders encroaching on Russia, I am not certain that Putin will be that concerned. The problem with NATO is that its existence is predicated on a threat from Russia. That doesn't apply today beyond the Russo-Slavic territories where NATO is afraid to venture. So does it really make much difference to the geo-politics? A little loss of pride perhaps at the gain of an end to internal division within the Russian territories. I know which I would choose if I were Putin.
I tend to view the current Ukranian borders as unsustainable. I could accept a harder line on Russia post a plebiscite since the current borders are as much a reflection of ethnic make up as some african countries.
On the other hand I do wonder how the reaction would be on the near abroad. Transnistria would struggle, hostile neighbours, no access for russian troops and little chance of joining the Motherland. The baltics would become more determined to stay free than ever. And Belarus could jump either way.
Only if you don't include the costs of the very necessary environmental restoration
It is an imperfec manifestation of such a world. It is also intellectually coherent.
That's a stupid comment. Nobody is advocating to let a bank go under, when a bank fails the creditors are protected to a level by a central bank. What going bust means is that the shareholders get wiped out and the board get nixed. That tends to concetrate minds.
However I'd say you haven't grasped the issue on risk management. Fewer but bigger banks concetrates risk. Numerous but smaller means the system can live with a failure since the quantum involved is more manageable. Letting a bank see it can fail removes more hazard.
As for the austerity dilemna if the banks were free standing you would have a point, but they're not they benefit from a variety of taxpayer support programmes designed to make them advance credit. That they are failing the government's own targets doesn't appear to make you worry about value for money or indeed question the purpose of the banking sector actually is.
A populist and feelgood but uninformed comment. That's not to say many won't agree with it. Sadly, it doesn't make it any righter.
I think you can easily say that the eg. RBS' shareholders were pretty much wiped out. RBS' shareprice went from all kinds of prices down to 13p or thereabouts shortly after which point it was effectively nationalised. I would be interested to see who you think remains on the board of either RBS, Lloyds or HBOS from 2007 although you are personalising the issue to an irrelevant degree.
As to your point about smaller banks I suggest you google "US..savings and loan crisis..". There is sadly no ultimate answer about the optimal size of bank. Larger ones gain from economies of scale and have a high tolerance for bad loans and so forth (all relatively speaking of course). Smaller ones can be more flexible but in a competitive environment the risk can be high.
I'm not sure either what you mean when you say banks "benefit from a variety of taxpayer support programmes designed to make them advance credit". Evidently not supportive enough if you are worrying that they aren't, um, advancing credit.
The banks today are peopled, with some exception, by people who want to achieve that risk/reward balance which is not as easy as some may believe. You, for example. Banking is a complex business and I understand if not every element is as intuitive as you might wish.
But more broadly you seem to have become more bitter over the past few months. Fine, you're not going to vote Cons. I don't know if you're in a constituency where it matters. You do, however, seem to be tending towards the more bonkers "I wouldn't have started from here" group who bemoan the fact that we have a more or less functioning free market economy rather than some wholly different cloud cuckoo pie in the sky nirvana of their dreams.
Kaliningrad is one of the wealthiest Oblasts and has a useful port and city, I can see why the Russians will keep that. I cannot see Transdneister being any way desireable.
THe Odessa Oblast will decide the fate of transdniester. If Odessa goes with West Ukraine then Transdniester is not viable, but if Odessa goes with Crimea and the East it loses its hinterland. A difficult one to forecast.
Moldova may want re-unification with Romania as a quick way into the EU, there is a movement there already.
I realise that would leave the impoverished Western half struggling to survive but at least they would be ethnically committed to their own country with no conflicts about looking West to the EU.
The East of the Ukraine is so integrated with the Russian economy and culture that it would resist any external attempt to change it. If change were to work it would have to come from Moscow and percolate down.
So I wouldn't shed any tears if the current crisis led to partition. And I would far prefer the EU, US and IMF to throw money at a country and people who were committed to start afresh without trying to serve two masters.
As to NATO and EU borders encroaching on Russia, I am not certain that Putin will be that concerned. The problem with NATO is that its existence is predicated on a threat from Russia. That doesn't apply today beyond the Russo-Slavic territories where NATO is afraid to venture. So does it really make much difference to the geo-politics? A little loss of pride perhaps at the gain of an end to internal division within the Russian territories. I know which I would choose if I were Putin.
I tend to view the current Ukranian borders as unsustainable. I could accept a harder line on Russia post a plebiscite since the current borders are as much a reflection of ethnic make up as some african countries.
On the other hand I do wonder how the reaction would be on the near abroad. Transnistria would struggle, hostile neighbours, no access for russian troops and little chance of joining the Motherland. The baltics would become more determined to stay free than ever. And Belarus could jump either way.
Only if you don't include the costs of the very necessary environmental restoration
Murdered private detective Daniel Morgan may have been about to expose police corruption in Lawrence investigation. http://bbc.in/1jVnH5X
I notice he didn't say ' the Blakelock family have suffered far too much' or ' we are going to launch a full independent inquiry into the death of Charlotte Downes'
"In my career as a doctor in prison, I met a few swindlers in my time and on the whole I liked them. They had charm and intelligence, which perhaps is unsurprising. It isn’t easy to imagine a charmless swindler, after all; it is almost a sine qua non of the trade. Whether their charm preceded their swindling or they developed it in order to practice their swindling is hard to say, though the former is more likely. Be that as it may, their charm was their stock-in-trade and human gullibility the market in which they sold their wares."
'Alex Salmond’s blueprint for separation suffered another body blow when senior economists at a leading global bank said they were “astonished” by his refusal to outline a Plan B on currency.'
How much longer can Salmond keep on parroting the bluff,bluster,bullying crap?
Murdered private detective Daniel Morgan may have been about to expose police corruption in Lawrence investigation. http://bbc.in/1jVnH5X
I notice he didn't say ' the Blakelock family have suffered far too much' or ' we are going to launch a full independent inquiry into the death of Charlotte Downes'
I notice that has nothing whatsoever to do with the corruption being uncovered. So why do you seem so upset by the main news story of the past two days about the increasing revelations of police corruption and malpractice over the murder of Stephen Lawrence? Hmmm?
Strong critique of David Cameron from Allister Heath in this morning's City AM though I'm less convinced of the poll featured in his article. I've not seen this research featured anywhere else.
What I find surprising is the number of non-UK EU citizens registered to vote.
"According to figures from Sussex University's European Institute, the number of EU migrants registered to vote in the UK more than tripled in the 10 years to 2011, reaching 1.2m."
MickPork - You are no longer permitted to talk about Daniel Morgan.
Some of the tweets you are copying and pasting are inaccurate and could land people in trouble.
For example you quoted a tweet which said
Murdered private detective Daniel Morgan may have been about to expose police corruption in Lawrence investigation. http://bbc.in/1jVnH5X
As per that link, Daniel Morgan was murdered in 1987, and Stephen Lawrence was murdered in 1993.
Please can you confirm you understand this instruction.
I confirm yet more ludicrous restrictions on my posting by you which I will abide by. The tweet was primarily a link to a BBC news report which is a respected source. The "may" was a clue to the validity actual tweeters opinion whereas the link and the totality of the investigations into Morgan himself (including his brother and the justice4Daniel campaign) have been crystal clear and quoted by several reputable news sources that Morgan was indeed quite probably about to expose police corruption. (including the Independent)
It is of no consequence that you know little about a case I have been highlighting for years so your silencing of me now on it will no more make it a Non-story than any other subject you personally dislike me raising for your own 'reasons'.
There is no danger whatsoever of anything I have posted resulting in any kind of legal action but I will abide by this further and somewhat eccentric banning order nonetheless.
Kaliningrad is one of the wealthiest Oblasts and has a useful port and city, I can see why the Russians will keep that. I cannot see Transdneister being any way desireable.
THe Odessa Oblast will decide the fate of transdniester. If Odessa goes with West Ukraine then Transdniester is not viable, but if Odessa goes with Crimea and the East it loses its hinterland. A difficult one to forecast.
Moldova may want re-unification with Romania as a quick way into the EU, there is a movement there already.
I realise that would leave the impoverished Western half struggling to survive but at least they would be ethnically committed to their own country with no conflicts about looking West to the EU.
The East of the Ukraine is so integrated with the Russian economy and culture that it would resist any external attempt to change it. If change were to work it would have to come from Moscow and percolate down.
So I wouldn't shed any tears if the current crisis led to partition. And I would far prefer the EU, US and IMF to throw money at a country and people who were committed to start afresh without trying to serve two masters.
As to NATO and EU borders encroaching on Russia, I am not certain that Putin will be that concerned. The problem with NATO is that its existence is predicated on a threat from Russia. That doesn't apply today beyond the Russo-Slavic territories where NATO is afraid to venture. So does it really make much difference to the geo-politics? A little loss of pride perhaps at the gain of an end to internal division within the Russian territories. I know which I would choose if I were Putin.
I tend to view the current Ukranian borders as unsustainable. I could accept a harder line on Russia post a plebiscite since the current borders are as much a reflection of ethnic make up as some african countries.
On the other hand I do wonder how the reaction would be on the near abroad. Transnistria would struggle, hostile neighbours, no access for russian troops and little chance of joining the Motherland. The baltics would become more determined to stay free than ever. And Belarus could jump either way.
David Baddiel and David Suchet's relatives come from this area.
These East Europeans that you speak with, how do they feel about the Communist dictatorships that you once supported and they lived under ?
First, I've been opposed to dictatorships all my life. I was active in the Eurocommunist movement which attempted to marry the ideas to democracy.
Second, who knows? I've almost never met an Eastern European in Britain who was interested in talking on the doorstep about his place of origin. Either they are so integrated that they just respond like British-born voters, or they look vague and say they don't know. If you were canvassed by an Italian politician, would you hold forth about your views on, say, Huddersfield?
That said, the vague look is still the more common in my experience. Not that most British voters are that different when you're trying to engage them in a local council or European election. You can see "Yeah, whatever" restrained only by courtesy to a stranger.
MickPork - You are no longer permitted to talk about Daniel Morgan.
Some of the tweets you are copying and pasting are inaccurate and could land people in trouble.
For example you quoted a tweet which said
Murdered private detective Daniel Morgan may have been about to expose police corruption in Lawrence investigation. http://bbc.in/1jVnH5X
As per that link, Daniel Morgan was murdered in 1987, and Stephen Lawrence was murdered in 1993.
Please can you confirm you understand this instruction.
I confirm yet more ludicrous restrictions on my posting by you which I will abide by. The tweet was primarily a link to a BBC news report which is a respected source. The "may" was a clue to the validity actual tweeters opinion whereas the link and the totality of the investigations into Morgan himself (including his brother and the justice4Daniel campaign) have been crystal clear and quoted by several reputable news sources that Morgan was indeed quite probably about to expose police corruption. (including the Independent)
It is of no consequence that you know little about a case I have been highlighting for years so your silencing of me now on it will no more make it a Non-story than any other subject you personally dislike me raising for your own 'reasons'.
There is no danger whatsoever of anything I have posted resulting in any kind of legal action but I will abide by this further and somewhat eccentric banning order nonetheless.
My response was moderated but believe things are not all they seem.
I work with several East Europeans. Those old enough to remember detest the communists. I have heard some pretty horrible stories about what was done to their families, with secret police everywhere.
They see the EU as an imperfect beast, but a hell of a lot better than what went on before. I can see why the Ukranians are so keen to join.
For me, staying in the EU is not just about Britain's narrow interest, it is about supporting freedom across the continent. I do not resent paying tax to support my countryfolk on hard times, and I do not resent the rules and regulations that maintain the rule of law across a continent, in many parts of which it has shallow roots that need nurturing.
The EU could be better than it is, but an imperfect EU is still a major force for good in much of Europe. We perhaps put in more than we get out (at least in the short term) but that is part of the price for being the Land of Hope and Glory, Mother of the Free. It would be a far worse EU without us.
These East Europeans that you speak with, how do they feel about the Communist dictatorships that you once supported and they lived under ?
First, I've been opposed to dictatorships all my life. I was active in the Eurocommunist movement which attempted to marry the ideas to democracy.
Second, who knows? I've almost never met an Eastern European in Britain who was interested in talking on the doorstep about his place of origin. Either they are so integrated that they just respond like British-born voters, or they look vague and say they don't know. If you were canvassed by an Italian politician, would you hold forth about your views on, say, Huddersfield?
That said, the vague look is still the more common in my experience. Not that most British voters are that different when you're trying to engage them in a local council or European election. You can see "Yeah, whatever" restrained only by courtesy to a stranger.
I see some very unsavoury types on both sides. Does that make me an apologist for Russia?
Indeed, I think that part of Putin's reasons for putting his disciplined troops on the streets in Crimea was to retrain the more extreme elements in the pro-Russian mobs.
I work with several East Europeans. Those old enough to remember detest the communists. I have heard some pretty horrible stories about what was done to their families, with secret police everywhere.
They see the EU as an imperfect beast, but a hell of a lot better than what went on before. I can see why the Ukranians are so keen to join.
For me, staying in the EU is not just about Britain's narrow interest, it is about supporting freedom across the continent. I do not resent paying tax to support my countryfolk on hard times, and I do not resent the rules and regulations that maintain the rule of law across a continent, in many parts of which it has shallow roots that need nurturing.
The EU could be better than it is, but an imperfect EU is still a major force for good in much of Europe. We perhaps put in more than we get out (at least in the short term) but that is part of the price for being the Land of Hope and Glory, Mother of the Free. It would be a far worse EU without us.
Sorry but I simply cannot agree with this. At the risk of invoking Godwin's Law this is like claiming that we should all be communists because at least they are better than the Nazi alternative (and no I am not comparing the EU with the communists, just using an example of how comparative worth is meaningless).
The problems with the EU are so huge and so insurmountable that the idea we can reform it or even put up with it as it is 'for the greater good' is just ludicrous.
Police spies snooped on Lawrence marriage: Shocking intrusion on Stephen's grieving parents by undercover officer http://dlvr.it/55Qx2q
Mick, you have no idea what has occurred in South East London other than the gash you read in the papers. All is not as reported, same as the Essex three.
I appreciate that speaking up for the EU is not popular on message boards including this one, and I have to turn in soon as I am working tommorow.
What is happening in Ukraine is why places like Estonia, Latvia, Romania and Poland, need us in the EU. We are fellow Europeans, and should not abandon these places. Economic alliances underpin the military one of NATO.
The EU is imperfect, but it is not in anyway comparable with the Fascist and Communist regimes that dominated in Europe even into my lifetime. I think that you need to get a bit of perspective.
I work with several East Europeans. Those old enough to remember detest the communists. I have heard some pretty horrible stories about what was done to their families, with secret police everywhere.
They see the EU as an imperfect beast, but a hell of a lot better than what went on before. I can see why the Ukranians are so keen to join.
For me, staying in the EU is not just about Britain's narrow interest, it is about supporting freedom across the continent. I do not resent paying tax to support my countryfolk on hard times, and I do not resent the rules and regulations that maintain the rule of law across a continent, in many parts of which it has shallow roots that need nurturing.
The EU could be better than it is, but an imperfect EU is still a major force for good in much of Europe. We perhaps put in more than we get out (at least in the short term) but that is part of the price for being the Land of Hope and Glory, Mother of the Free. It would be a far worse EU without us.
Sorry but I simply cannot agree with this. At the risk of invoking Godwin's Law this is like claiming that we should all be communists because at least they are better than the Nazi alternative (and no I am not comparing the EU with the communists, just using an example of how comparative worth is meaningless).
The problems with the EU are so huge and so insurmountable that the idea we can reform it or even put up with it as it is 'for the greater good' is just ludicrous.
The problems with the EU are so huge and so insurmountable that the idea we can reform it or even put up with it as it is 'for the greater good' is just ludicrous.
You may enjoy this. Blair Vs Farage in happier times when Blair wasn't up for the highest bidder.
These East Europeans that you speak with, how do they feel about the Communist dictatorships that you once supported and they lived under ?
First, I've been opposed to dictatorships all my life. I was active in the Eurocommunist movement which attempted to marry the ideas to democracy.
Second, who knows? I've almost never met an Eastern European in Britain who was interested in talking on the doorstep about his place of origin. Either they are so integrated that they just respond like British-born voters, or they look vague and say they don't know. If you were canvassed by an Italian politician, would you hold forth about your views on, say, Huddersfield?
That said, the vague look is still the more common in my experience. Not that most British voters are that different when you're trying to engage them in a local council or European election. You can see "Yeah, whatever" restrained only by courtesy to a stranger.
Thanks. I've always found Eastern Europeans in Britain and elsewhere happy to speak about their original countries.
Police spies snooped on Lawrence marriage: Shocking intrusion on Stephen's grieving parents by undercover officer http://dlvr.it/55Qx2q
Mick, you have no idea what has occurred in South East London other than the gash you read in the papers.
Whereas you know everything that has transpired of course. By all means enlighten us.
I would but I have been moderated. Believe what you want but as I say not all is as it seems, including the other high profile killing in that part of the world.
Richard is of course right that it's not sufficient to point to worse things to make the EU desirable. However, Fox is also right that the majority of people in the new member states in Eastern Europe are pretty enthusiastic and feel that the EU has done them a great deal of good.
In general the EU has tended to level standards up - both economically and in terms of the rule if law - and the more backward states have benefited accordingly. Fox's view that it's part of our duty to support that makes sense to me - it's in our interest too to live in a prosperous continent with relatively high legal standards.
I appreciate that speaking up for the EU is not popular on message boards including this one, and I have to turn in soon as I am working tommorow.
What is happening in Ukraine is why places like Estonia, Latvia, Romania and Poland, need us in the EU. We are fellow Europeans, and should not abandon these places. Economic alliances underpin the military one of NATO.
The EU is imperfect, but it is not in anyway comparable with the Fascist and Communist regimes that dominated in Europe even into my lifetime. I think that you need to get a bit of perspective.
We are not 'fellow Europeans'. This is as meaningless as claiming that we and the Chinese are 'fellow humans' and trying to use that as some sort of excuse for a political union.
The EU is not a force for good and staying in is certainly not in Britain's interests, whether narrow or broad.
We can offer a far better example to the former communist countries by showing them it is possible to survive and thrive as an independent trading nation rather than tied to a regressive, protectionist and failing bloc.
Police spies snooped on Lawrence marriage: Shocking intrusion on Stephen's grieving parents by undercover officer http://dlvr.it/55Qx2q
Mick, you have no idea what has occurred in South East London other than the gash you read in the papers.
Whereas you know everything that has transpired of course. By all means enlighten us.
Believe what you want
I'll also believe what is backed up by evidence and further revelations. You have done nothing to dissuade anyone that the Stephen Lawrence reporting is incorrect whereas some in the Met have self-evidently managed to trash their reputation and credibility on the matter quite thoroughly over the past few days.
Police spies snooped on Lawrence marriage: Shocking intrusion on Stephen's grieving parents by undercover officer http://dlvr.it/55Qx2q
Mick, you have no idea what has occurred in South East London other than the gash you read in the papers.
Whereas you know everything that has transpired of course. By all means enlighten us.
Believe what you want
I'll also believe what is backed up by evidence and further revelations. You have done nothing to dissuade anyone that the Stephen Lawrence reporting is incorrect whereas some in the Met have self-evidently managed to trash their reputation and credibility on the matter quite thoroughly over the past few days.
I didn't say it was incorrect. Just there is more to the high profile stuff than meets the eye.
While we're on the subject, what do you think of the reporting in the Charlotte Downes case? PC Blakelock was killed eight years before Stephen Lawrence, it will have been witnessed by dozens of people, people who will justifiably be complaining about the corruption in the Lawrence case. Are they now offering evidence about Blakelock? If not then why not?
The EU is not a force for good and staying in is certainly not in Britain's interests, whether narrow or broad.
We can offer a far better example to the former communist countries by showing them it is possible to survive and thrive as an independent trading nation rather than tied to a regressive, protectionist and failing bloc.
If I understand the events of the past few weeks correctly, the governments of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia et al disagree with you. As do the people and current government of the Ukraine, who have a more...immediate understanding of Russia and the European Union
I appreciate you disapprove if the EU and this post isn't meant to dissuade you of that. What it is intended to do is to point out that comparing the EU to Russia is not sane. Plainly Russia's actions in the Ukraine and Georgia are worse than (say) the EU's actions in Greece and Ireland. Preventing Greece from devaluing out of a balance of payments crisis is not of the same magnitude as invading the Ukraine with helicopters and armoured personnel carriers and gerrymandering an anschluss with guns.
One considerable advantage of Dubya was that he gave clarity: Al-Quaida was bad, the Coalition good. Similarly, it needs to be said that Russia is acting wrongly and Putin is a bad man.
Comments
The Bank of England publish a monthly Credit Conditions Survey which attempts to measure the interplay of credit demand, supply, costs and credit criteria. A study of the reports will show that lending to SMEs has suffered most, if not all, from lack of demand.
The problem has been lack of confidence in the near to mid term future of the economy which has caused business owners to hold back on investment plans rather than increase their exposures to debt. This is definitely changing and lending to SMEs is picking up and, accepting your points on credit criteria and availability being contributory, being accelerated by lowering cost of funds and higher capitalisation of banks.
Banks are however forecasting a faster rate of growth in lending to medium sized firms than the small units. The large corporates have also being deleveraging but in addition they have increasing the proportion of funds they borrow directly from the financial markets over that they borrow using traditional bank products. Such flexibility is not available to the SMEs, particularly the smaller firms who tend to be looking for overdraft finance.
Yes 5.5 (Betfair)
No 1.25 (Hills)
... although it is open to question if you could get enough cash on to make it worthwhile.
On SMEs there are quite a variety of instruments open if you know where to look. IMO the problem is too many entrepreneurs just don't have the required knowledge of where to look and the traditional sources have sort of closed their doors while pretending they haven't.
You can't just let a bank go bust today. Too big to fail? Too right. It is realpolitik in just the same way as the 2nd Fleet isn't going to mobilise against Russia.
Does it introduce moral hazard? You betcha but there is no alternative (tm).
That said, you can't then in the same breath invoke the austerity dilemma, namely why are our banks going bust why aren't they lending?
They had balance sheet repair drummed into them to within an inch of their lives but they are now supposed to lend to every SME who presents themselves at their front door?
Not going to happen and probably rightly so.
It is an imperfect world and this is one manifestation of such a world. It is also intellectually coherent.
Caroline Flint on AQ making a well-received point and others are making the same one.
All those who were pilloried for querying the whiter-than-whiteness of the police (and MPS in particular) should take some meagre satisfaction although I hope it won't please them.
'He told us why he had left his native country a few years before: Everyone there was corrupt, nothing was possible without bribery, the opposition was as bad as the government, and all political demonstrations, which were frequent even then, were entirely bogus. Indeed, political demonstrations had become a form of social security, the political system’s corrupt and vastly rich oligarchs paying a small daily subvention to the otherwise unemployed who agreed to demonstrate in their favor. There was nothing to choose between the government and opposition except the size of the daily payments that they offered, which varied from day to day like the stock market. Principle didn’t come into it; demonstrators changed from pro-government to pro-opposition and vice versa, according to the amount on offer.'"
http://www.skepticaldoctor.com/
However I'd say you haven't grasped the issue on risk management. Fewer but bigger banks concetrates risk. Numerous but smaller means the system can live with a failure since the quantum involved is more manageable. Letting a bank see it can fail removes more hazard.
As for the austerity dilemna if the banks were free standing you would have a point, but they're not they benefit from a variety of taxpayer support programmes designed to make them advance credit. That they are failing the government's own targets doesn't appear to make you worry about value for money or indeed question the purpose of the banking sector actually is.
It's pathetic, rewriting a post when I didn't even notice the 'tidal wave' reference was in the title. ;-)
If Farage does stand in South Thanet the 5-2 won't last long.
That will save a lot of LD MPs next year.
Simple question: why did the majority of countries, businesses and individuals all start borrowing too much at the exact same time?
Answer: because the banks massively reduced the cost of borrowing at that time.
Why won't any member of the political class mention that or discuss what needs to be done to prevent the banks being able to trash the entire global economy more or less at whim?
So the Hodges' piece contains nothing new at all. Moreover, it provides no evidence that Constable Rowland's account of the incident in Downing Street was untrue or misleading. That would be difficult because the said constable has never even been interviewed under caution about that account. The police investigation and subsequent proceedings (both criminal and disciplinary) have proceeded on the basis that the misconduct related only to inappropriate contact with the media rather than whether Mr Mitchell or Constable Rowland was telling the truth. The question Mr Hodges might want to ask, rather than rehashing what was already in the public domain as groundbreaking revelations, is why that was indeed the starting point of the investigation.
It may be a little cynical but it is based on unchallengeable truth.
This is why the EU should keep a safe distance from the Ukraine and not be forced by geo-political ambitions from taking on a culture and economy that is massively different from that in Western Europe.
Not an argument for non-engagement just for slow, patient, cautious and multi-lateral support.
I'm sort of expecting that the Dan Hodges investigation will concude that the person responsible for Plebgate was Ed Milband
I think Putin has probably committed an error in his approach in trying to crystalise a crisis. In time he will only harden attitudes and drive a line down the middle of the country which will then become a problem for both the Ukraine and Russia. Ultimately I think the 3 russian majority provinces will leave ( crimea, donetsk,lugansk ). Charles Crawford the ex-ambassador implied this would be a loss for Putin since this will stop him having the ability to leverage the Ukraine and create an EU buffer state on his borders over which he has much less influence.
http://www.thelocal.de/20140305/euro-eurosceptic-afd-csu-germany-meet-for-ash-wednesday-summits-in-bavaria
http://www.cityam.com/article/1394157023/cameron-alienating-his-core-voters-without-attracting-new-ones
Strong critique of David Cameron from Allister Heath in this morning's City AM though I'm less convinced of the poll featured in his article. I've not seen this research featured anywhere else.
I realise that would leave the impoverished Western half struggling to survive but at least they would be ethnically committed to their own country with no conflicts about looking West to the EU.
The East of the Ukraine is so integrated with the Russian economy and culture that it would resist any external attempt to change it. If change were to work it would have to come from Moscow and percolate down.
So I wouldn't shed any tears if the current crisis led to partition. And I would far prefer the EU, US and IMF to throw money at a country and people who were committed to start afresh without trying to serve two masters.
As to NATO and EU borders encroaching on Russia, I am not certain that Putin will be that concerned. The problem with NATO is that its existence is predicated on a threat from Russia. That doesn't apply today beyond the Russo-Slavic territories where NATO is afraid to venture. So does it really make much difference to the geo-politics? A little loss of pride perhaps at the gain of an end to internal division within the Russian territories. I know which I would choose if I were Putin.
Plan B is "lose the vote and then demand devo-max".
Charles responded to the post I made claiming that Putin was less corrupt than his predecessors and FSU peers by pointing out that the coffers of offshore banks were burgeoning with Putin cash.
The answer is that both posts were true. The difference is relative not absolute.
All my dreams of working with a Russian individual or company that wasn't 'corrupt' were eventually shattered. The best you could hope for was to be identified as someone not corrupt and therefore to be circumvented and lied to. A compliment of sorts I suppose.
Another post on PB which chimed recently was about China and how the Chinese were family obsessed. The same applies in Russia. It is not so much a love of family but a complete mistrust of any societal structure outside of the family. Neighbours, employers, schools and universities were viewed favourably but not really trusted. As for government and state, nothing was trusted.
In that environment, why resist the rare opportunity for personal and family gain and place your faith for long term reward in your employer or the state? The answer is the same from the most lowly to the highest in the land. Take what you can when you can because tomorrow everything might be different.
And yes, ally with the powerful. They are the source of your rewards.
On the other hand I do wonder how the reaction would be on the near abroad. Transnistria would struggle, hostile neighbours, no access for russian troops and little chance of joining the Motherland. The baltics would become more determined to stay free than ever. And Belarus could jump either way.
Moldova may want re-unification with Romania as a quick way into the EU, there is a movement there already.
I tend to view the current Ukranian borders as unsustainable. I could accept a harder line on Russia post a plebiscite since the current borders are as much a reflection of ethnic make up as some african countries.
On the other hand I do wonder how the reaction would be on the near abroad. Transnistria would struggle, hostile neighbours, no access for russian troops and little chance of joining the Motherland. The baltics would become more determined to stay free than ever. And Belarus could jump either way.
Transnistria is a problem that would need to be solved by relocation.
The Baltics are already free and happy (at least Estonia and Latvia) to benefit from being bidirectional gateways between Russia and the West. Latvia, in particular, is a great example of how a large population of Russian ethnic origin can co-exist to mutual benefit. The Russian speakers there consider that being a Latvian Russian is superior to the real thing.
Estonia is a little different. I kept on being driven around the environs of Tallinn to be shown the differences between Russian areas (untidy, uncared for, noisy) and Estonian areas (newly painted, clean, quiet). It didn't have that much effect on me as I had been brought up to make the same distinctions between the environs of Swiss French and those of the French French. Estonians and Russians don't mix as well as the Latvians and Russians but there is limited resentment now the Estonians are in control.
Belarus is very different. A very conservative country socially - even at personal and family level - there is little clamour to be free of the Russian yoke. A demand for a less corrupt and more socially supportive government certainly but not a switch away from Russia to the EU. It would take a long period of demonstrable success of EU affiliation by their Southern neighbour for Belarus to be tempted away from Moscow.
No 10 forced to check how David Cameron’s nanny gained British citizenship http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-10-forced-to-check-how-david-camerons-nanny-gained-british-citizenship-9177622.html … @johnfairbanks
Incompetent fop.
Exclusive: George Osborne's tax and benefits changes have hit women almost four times harder than men. #VoteThemOut http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-george-osbornes-tax-and-benefits-changes-have-hit-women-almost-four-times-harder-than-men-9177533.html …
Incompetent fop.
Agreed.
But do you have a solution for Kaliningrad?
It would help your chances in Broxtowe to have the visible accoutrements of an oligarch.
Met Police commander moved to "non-operational role" after report into original Stephen Lawrence murder investigation http://itv.co/1dvXcSZ
Helen121 @Helen121 12h
Corruption was "dark factor" in Met @Telegraph http://fw.to/WthEKUH Corrupt police officer might also be linked to Daniel Morgan murder.
Bill Boyle @Bill_Boyle
Cameron just said we are sending The Met Police out to Ukraine to help root out corrruption. I think I just larfed out loud.
Incompetent fop.
"Bernard Hogan-Howe briefed about police infiltration linked to #Lawrence campaign 11 months before family was told" http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/aug/12/met-chief-briefed-spying-lawrence-campaign …
StevenNott @StevenNott 9h
If Met Commissioner Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe is upset now, wait until the Daniel Morgan independent panel reports. He'll have kittens !
William Jones @wsjaeboo 2m
Main BBC news mentions police corruption and identifying an alleged corrupt officer involved in Daniel Morgan case @AlastairMorgan
I think you can easily say that the eg. RBS' shareholders were pretty much wiped out. RBS' shareprice went from all kinds of prices down to 13p or thereabouts shortly after which point it was effectively nationalised. I would be interested to see who you think remains on the board of either RBS, Lloyds or HBOS from 2007 although you are personalising the issue to an irrelevant degree.
As to your point about smaller banks I suggest you google "US..savings and loan crisis..". There is sadly no ultimate answer about the optimal size of bank. Larger ones gain from economies of scale and have a high tolerance for bad loans and so forth (all relatively speaking of course). Smaller ones can be more flexible but in a competitive environment the risk can be high.
I'm not sure either what you mean when you say banks "benefit from a variety of taxpayer support programmes designed to make them advance credit". Evidently not supportive enough if you are worrying that they aren't, um, advancing credit.
The banks today are peopled, with some exception, by people who want to achieve that risk/reward balance which is not as easy as some may believe. You, for example. Banking is a complex business and I understand if not every element is as intuitive as you might wish.
But more broadly you seem to have become more bitter over the past few months. Fine, you're not going to vote Cons. I don't know if you're in a constituency where it matters. You do, however, seem to be tending towards the more bonkers "I wouldn't have started from here" group who bemoan the fact that we have a more or less functioning free market economy rather than some wholly different cloud cuckoo pie in the sky nirvana of their dreams.
Cameron: "It should not have taken this long, and the Lawrence family have suffered far too much." #wato
PoliticsHome @politicshome 9h
David Cameron backs the establishment of a full independent inquiry into Lawrence allegations. "This will get to the truth". #wato
Fiona Flores Watson @Seville_Writer 2m
Murdered private detective Daniel Morgan may have been about to expose police corruption in Lawrence investigation. http://bbc.in/1jVnH5X
Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn
Mark Easton @BBCMarkEaston 2m
DS Davidson name appears 9x in apparent Daniel Morgan murder file seen by @BBCNews. @metpoliceuk has said there are no such records.
harj @harji187 4m
‘A firm within a firm’: Calls for Scotland Yard to come clean over '27-year-old cover-up' http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/a-firm-within-a-firm-calls-for-scotland-yard-to-come-clean-over-27yearold-coverup-as-brother-of-murdered-private-investigator-daniel-morgan-condemns-police-9177653.html …
"In my career as a doctor in prison, I met a few swindlers in my time and on the whole I liked them. They had charm and intelligence, which perhaps is unsurprising. It isn’t easy to imagine a charmless swindler, after all; it is almost a sine qua non of the trade. Whether their charm preceded their swindling or they developed it in order to practice their swindling is hard to say, though the former is more likely. Be that as it may, their charm was their stock-in-trade and human gullibility the market in which they sold their wares."
http://www.newenglishreview.org/custpage.cfm/frm/142352/sec_id/142352
'Alex Salmond’s blueprint for separation suffered another body blow when senior economists at a leading global bank said they were “astonished” by his refusal to outline a Plan B on currency.'
How much longer can Salmond keep on parroting the bluff,bluster,bullying crap?
Some of the tweets you are copying and pasting are inaccurate and could land people in trouble.
For example you quoted a tweet which said
Murdered private detective Daniel Morgan may have been about to expose police corruption in Lawrence investigation. http://bbc.in/1jVnH5X
As per that link, Daniel Morgan was murdered in 1987, and Stephen Lawrence was murdered in 1993.
Please can you confirm you understand this instruction.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1373556.ece
What I find surprising is the number of non-UK EU citizens registered to vote.
"According to figures from Sussex University's European Institute, the number of EU migrants registered to vote in the UK more than tripled in the 10 years to 2011, reaching 1.2m."
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/pro-eu-campaigners-target-uk-migrants-ahead-eu-elections-1432928
The tweet was primarily a link to a BBC news report which is a respected source. The "may" was a clue to the validity actual tweeters opinion whereas the link and the totality of the investigations into Morgan himself (including his brother and the justice4Daniel campaign) have been crystal clear and quoted by several reputable news sources that Morgan was indeed quite probably about to expose police corruption. (including the Independent)
It is of no consequence that you know little about a case I have been highlighting for years so your silencing of me now on it will no more make it a Non-story than any other subject you personally dislike me raising for your own 'reasons'.
There is no danger whatsoever of anything I have posted resulting in any kind of legal action but I will abide by this further and somewhat eccentric banning order nonetheless.
THE BETRAYAL OF STEPHEN LAWRENCE: front page of tomorrow's @independent: pic.twitter.com/tSWq0NpF4X
Police spies snooped on Lawrence marriage: Shocking intrusion on Stephen's grieving parents by undercover officer http://dlvr.it/55Qx2q
"Kalinigrad is the testicles of Russia. When I want to make the Russians scream, I squeeze on Kaliningrad!"
Second, who knows? I've almost never met an Eastern European in Britain who was interested in talking on the doorstep about his place of origin. Either they are so integrated that they just respond like British-born voters, or they look vague and say they don't know. If you were canvassed by an Italian politician, would you hold forth about your views on, say, Huddersfield?
That said, the vague look is still the more common in my experience. Not that most British voters are that different when you're trying to engage them in a local council or European election. You can see "Yeah, whatever" restrained only by courtesy to a stranger.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2014/03/who-will-protect-the-crimean-tatars.html
And yet the apologists for Russia like to claim it's the Ukrainians who are neo-Nazis...
They see the EU as an imperfect beast, but a hell of a lot better than what went on before. I can see why the Ukranians are so keen to join.
For me, staying in the EU is not just about Britain's narrow interest, it is about supporting freedom across the continent. I do not resent paying tax to support my countryfolk on hard times, and I do not resent the rules and regulations that maintain the rule of law across a continent, in many parts of which it has shallow roots that need nurturing.
The EU could be better than it is, but an imperfect EU is still a major force for good in much of Europe. We perhaps put in more than we get out (at least in the short term) but that is part of the price for being the Land of Hope and Glory, Mother of the Free. It would be a far worse EU without us.
Indeed, I think that part of Putin's reasons for putting his disciplined troops on the streets in Crimea was to retrain the more extreme elements in the pro-Russian mobs.
The problems with the EU are so huge and so insurmountable that the idea we can reform it or even put up with it as it is 'for the greater good' is just ludicrous.
Tony Blair plans 'significant' Labour party donation http://fb.me/6KDDZick9
That should please the witless warmongers and NeoCon imbeciles.
What is happening in Ukraine is why places like Estonia, Latvia, Romania and Poland, need us in the EU. We are fellow Europeans, and should not abandon these places. Economic alliances underpin the military one of NATO.
The EU is imperfect, but it is not in anyway comparable with the Fascist and Communist regimes that dominated in Europe even into my lifetime. I think that you need to get a bit of perspective.
Blair Vs Farage in happier times when Blair wasn't up for the highest bidder.
John M Knox @johnmknox 4h
Blast from the past: Nigel Farage #UKIP rattles Tony Blair http://youtu.be/l5v92kCBy7c
I've always found Eastern Europeans in Britain and elsewhere happy to speak about their original countries.
And the triple murder in Essex.
In general the EU has tended to level standards up - both economically and in terms of the rule if law - and the more backward states have benefited accordingly. Fox's view that it's part of our duty to support that makes sense to me - it's in our interest too to live in a prosperous continent with relatively high legal standards.
The EU is not a force for good and staying in is certainly not in Britain's interests, whether narrow or broad.
We can offer a far better example to the former communist countries by showing them it is possible to survive and thrive as an independent trading nation rather than tied to a regressive, protectionist and failing bloc.
While we're on the subject, what do you think of the reporting in the Charlotte Downes case? PC Blakelock was killed eight years before Stephen Lawrence, it will have been witnessed by dozens of people, people who will justifiably be complaining about the corruption in the Lawrence case. Are they now offering evidence about Blakelock? If not then why not?
I appreciate you disapprove if the EU and this post isn't meant to dissuade you of that. What it is intended to do is to point out that comparing the EU to Russia is not sane. Plainly Russia's actions in the Ukraine and Georgia are worse than (say) the EU's actions in Greece and Ireland. Preventing Greece from devaluing out of a balance of payments crisis is not of the same magnitude as invading the Ukraine with helicopters and armoured personnel carriers and gerrymandering an anschluss with guns.
One considerable advantage of Dubya was that he gave clarity: Al-Quaida was bad, the Coalition good. Similarly, it needs to be said that Russia is acting wrongly and Putin is a bad man.