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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Labour’s loss of Ramsbottom to CON should bring some cheer to the blue team

It is well over a year since PB started its regular Thursday night coverage of local council by-election. Harry Hayfield has done a great job of keeping us all informed.

Read the full story here

dr_spyn

First, unlike Labour.

JosiasJessop

Second is the new first.

Innocent_Abroad

This was a split ward, wasn't it?

JosiasJessop

And on-topic for once, it was a marginal victory in a northern constituency.

However I cannot read 'Ramsbottom' without thinking of 'Despicable Me 2'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSKfC1E3vc4

Neil

I'm not sure leads of this size in this part of the constituency will be enough for the Tories to hold on in Bury North. Labour has been doing very well in Greater Manchester in local elections since 2010 and I would have them as favourites to win this seat.

TheScreamingEagles

JosiasJessop said:

And on-topic for once, it was a marginal victory in a northern constituency.

However I cannot read 'Ramsbottom' without thinking of 'Despicable Me 2'

www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSKfC1E3vc4

This week I was in a meeting with people who had the surnames, Cockburn, Cummings and Balloch.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, I keep on telling PBers the Tories are strong in the North.

Edit: But Labour all they want to do is decapitate Clegg.

As I keep on telling them, don't hate your enemies.

BenM

Interesting Tories trying to make their appalliing record on unemployment look better by comparing now to May 2010, but fail to realise the situation was already getting better under Labour at that point (so we'd be better off now without the change in government), then got a whole lot worse, before getting to where we are today.

Like 1979, the Tories came into office and increased unemployment, the direct effect of a failing austerity strategy.

taffys

Obviously local factors that I don;t know about may be holding sway here but what shouts at me from that graphic is the lib dem number. Sheesh.

Next

BenM said:

Interesting Tories trying to make their appalliing record on unemployment look better by comparing now to May 2010, but fail to realise the situation was already getting better under Labour at that point (so we'd be better off now without the change in government), then got a whole lot worse, before getting to where we are today.

LOL. Mr M, you're smart enough to know that the Brown pre-election splurge (to make things look good in 2010) was never sustainable.

dr_spyn

@Taffys The LD vote was very low, but given that polls imply that LDs had been drifting back to Labour in such numbers, why did the Tories can the seat? Perhaps the Lab candidate was NBG.

MikeSmithson

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I keep on telling PBers the Tories are strong in the North.

Edit: But Labour all they want to do is decapitate Clegg.

As I keep on telling them, don't hate your enemies.

Good point TSE. It sometimes seems that LAB's main objective is to punish the LDs not win back power.

This was the New Statesman's coverage of last nigh's by-elections. No mention of Ramsbottom

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/lib-dems-beaten-bus-pass-elvis-party-council-election

Sunil_Prasannan

I blame UKIP, the LDs and the Greens for splitting the anti-Tory vote!

AndyJS

Sky News are really embarrassing themselves IMO by putting the Pistorius trial as their main item all the time.

AlastairMeeks

I'm not a big fan of council by-elections as a predictor of general elections. Too many local circumstances to factor out.

I noted that a poster who claimed to have canvassed in this council for Labour thought yesterday that they might hold on. In the end, they didn't come particularly close to doing so.

But that's probably more an illustration that in such matters no one really knows anything.

dugarbandier

AndyJS said:

Sky News are really embarrassing themselves IMO by putting the Pistorius trial as their main item all the time.

bbc too. live tweets and everything. of course its a sad case. but one murder..

there might be some other stuff going on in that continent..

(don't know about the bbc tv, following online)

IanR

Worth noting the outgoing Lab cllr won in a dead-heat in 2011 by virtue of drawing lots. This victor was the previous Con cllr. But certainly not a good result for Lab

AlastairMeeks

The Oscar Pistorius trial is major box office. It's a love triangle with incredibly attractive people involving someone who is an international superstar. The public will be captivated.

I'd be amazed if it doesn't feature highly tomorrow afternoon in Populus's list of news stories that have registered with the public.

HurstLlama

Interestingly there has been a swing of 11% to Labour in that Bury ward since 2008. So add in a low turn out and, maybe, some special local factors, and I am not sure how much significance there is in the Conservative gain. The Lib Dem number is over course pathetic (family, friends and mates from the pub ought to give more than 38 votes) - perhaps it was a paper candidate.

http://thepollshavenowclosed.blogspot.co.uk/

dugarbandier

antifrank said:

The Oscar Pistorius trial is major box office. It's a love triangle with incredibly attractive people involving someone who is an international superstar. The public will be captivated.

I'd be amazed if it doesn't feature highly this afternoon in Populus's list of news stories that have registered with the public.

doesn't mean the bbc should be wasting your money on it!

MaxPB

BenM said:

Interesting Tories trying to make their appalliing record on unemployment look better by comparing now to May 2010, but fail to realise the situation was already getting better under Labour at that point (so we'd be better off now without the change in government), then got a whole lot worse, before getting to where we are today.

Like 1979, the Tories came into office and increased unemployment, the direct effect of a failing austerity strategy.

So the cost of living line has made way for employment. LOL

Labour left government with unemployment higher than when they entered. Labour support longer dole queues and benefit dependency.

In a year the unemployment rate will dip down to less than 6%, what's Labour's attack like going to be then? More people in work, wages in the private sector now growing in real terms, income taxes down and corporation taxes down. It even looks like there will be a recovery in business investment tthis year, so even that plank is going to fall. All that you can hope for is that it is a voteless recovery, but that's not exactly being master of one's own destiny...

Morris_Dancer

Mr. R, welcome to pb.com.

I think I remember that lot-drawing.

Mr. Antifrank, it would indeed be remarkable if a story getting saturation coverage from 24 hour news channels did not register.

Sean_F

BenM said:

Interesting Tories trying to make their appalliing record on unemployment look better by comparing now to May 2010, but fail to realise the situation was already getting better under Labour at that point (so we'd be better off now without the change in government), then got a whole lot worse, before getting to where we are today.

Like 1979, the Tories came into office and increased unemployment, the direct effect of a failing austerity strategy.

Comparing where we are now to when the Coalition took over seems statistically sound to me. By any historical measure, net job creation of 250,000 jobs a year over the past four years is pretty impressive.

You're flogging a dead horse, on this one.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I keep on telling PBers the Tories are strong in the North.

Edit: But Labour all they want to do is decapitate Clegg.

As I keep on telling them, don't hate your enemies.

For a lot of journalists, "the North" means Sheffield, Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, and nothing else.

Some of the Conservatives' safest seats are in the North.

Richard_Nabavi

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I keep on telling PBers the Tories are strong in the North.

Edit: But Labour all they want to do is decapitate Clegg.

As I keep on telling them, don't hate your enemies.

For a lot of journalists, "the North" means Sheffield, Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, and nothing else.

Some of the Conservatives' safest seats are in the North.

Surely the North starts at Hampstead Heath?

HurstLlama

@MorrisDancer

"I think I remember that lot-drawing"

Do you really? You must be an even sadder bugger (with an even more eclectic memory) than I am.

AlastairMeeks

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. R, welcome to pb.com.

I think I remember that lot-drawing.

Mr. Antifrank, it would indeed be remarkable if a story getting saturation coverage from 24 hour news channels did not register.

Why? The combined audience of BBC News 24 and Sky News is 15 absent-minded pensioners and an incontinent cat.

Sean_F

HurstLlama said:

Interestingly there has been a swing of 11% to Labour in that Bury ward since 2008. So add in a low turn out and, maybe, some special local factors, and I am not sure how much significance there is in the Conservative gain. The Lib Dem number is over course pathetic (family, friends and mates from the pub ought to give more than 38 votes) - perhaps it was a paper candidate.

http://thepollshavenowclosed.blogspot.co.uk/

Nationally, though, the Conservatives led Labour by 20% in the local elections of 2008

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Llama, I didn't recall the location but I do remember lots being drawn after a dead heat.

HurstLlama

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I keep on telling PBers the Tories are strong in the North.

Edit: But Labour all they want to do is decapitate Clegg.

As I keep on telling them, don't hate your enemies.

For a lot of journalists, "the North" means Sheffield, Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, and nothing else.

Some of the Conservatives' safest seats are in the North.

Surely the North starts at Hampstead Heath?

The North starts at Clerkenwell Road, at least according to my late father. Mind you he was a City man of the old school (born there, not a trader in financial gizzmos) and so something of a fundamentalist. I understand the accepted modern definition of the start of the North is the Watford Gap.

TheScreamingEagles

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I keep on telling PBers the Tories are strong in the North.

Edit: But Labour all they want to do is decapitate Clegg.

As I keep on telling them, don't hate your enemies.

For a lot of journalists, "the North" means Sheffield, Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, and nothing else.

Some of the Conservatives' safest seats are in the North.

Indeed, North Yorkshire for example is a Tory Stronghold.

IIRC for many years Richmond was the Tories' safest seat in the country.

TheScreamingEagles

The only people who should be embarrassed about the Oscar Pistorious coverage is publicity shy Paddy Power.

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/mar/05/paddy-power-oscar-pistorius-ad-withdrawn-immediate-effect

Pulpstar

LD 38

@ThescreamingEagles You sure Clegg is safe in Hallam ?

edmundintokyo

Juncker 382
Barnier 245

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

LD 38

@ThescreamingEagles You sure Clegg is safe in Hallam ?

Yes.

TheScreamingEagles

PBers note, following on from *those* trainers

Why 2014 was the year trainers went high fashion

With Karl Lagerfeld sending models down the Chanel couture runway in lace-up sneakers, Missoni collaborating with Converse and Givenchy with Nike, the humble training shoe is having a fashion moment

http://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2014/mar/08/2014-year-trainers-went-high-fashion-nike?CMP=twt_fd

AlastairMeeks

Dan Hodges with a different article from the previous 463:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100262627/the-real-story-of-plebgate-even-the-police-cant-trust-the-police-any-more/

His account of events is depressingly believable.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, I didn't recall the location but I do remember lots being drawn after a dead heat.

Did you see my tips on the last thread?

taffys

Scotland are 5-2 to beat France in the rugby with PP and I'm very tempted.

The French have typically reacted to defeat by dropping some good players as well as bad, and Scotland seem to have, almost accidentally, stumbled upon some good combinations.

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

Dan Hodges with a different article from the previous 463:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100262627/the-real-story-of-plebgate-even-the-police-cant-trust-the-police-any-more/

His account of events is depressingly believable.

Delhi police are in a league of their own

Delhi police have admitted that they didn’t investigate complaints about their conduct for eight years because they didn’t know the password to the online complaints system.

http://www.geeksaresexy.net/2014/03/06/indian-cops-lose-password-for-eight-years

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, I missed them, I'm afraid. I'll go and have a quick perusal.

Mr. Taffys, hmm. I don't know... France have (beating us aside) been a bit poor, but Scotland have been dreadful as well (exciting win in Italy aside).

Saturday's matches look like warm-up events for the real deal when Wales visit England.

AlastairMeeks

A good friend of mine works within central high command of a police force outside London with a troubled relationship with the press. I took great pleasure in pointing out to him this morning that there's always someone worse off than you - a point he readily agreed with.

TheScreamingEagles

taffys said:

Scotland are 5-2 to beat France in the rugby with PP and I'm very tempted.

The French have typically reacted to defeat by dropping some good players as well as bad, and Scotland seem to have, almost accidentally, stumbled upon some good combinations.

Considering the way both sides have played some matches this tournament, France v Scotland is the resistible force meets the moveable object.

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

A good friend of mine works within central high command of a police force outside London with a troubled relationship with the press. I took great pleasure in pointing out to him this morning that there's always someone worse off than you - a point he readily agreed with.

He doesn't work for South Yorkshire Police does he?

Theuniondivvie

Of no more than passing interest to most PBers I'm sure, and with still ambiguous (if any) political implications, I attended my orientation as a 'Clydesider' Commonwealth Games volunteer this morning. Usual mixture that seems required nowadays of flashing lights, big screens, filmed celeb endorsements, ipads, cheesiness, genuine anticipation and some creaky attempts to get an emotionally constipated Scottish audience to practice their Mexican waves. Everything and everyone had to be applauded (my hands are still smarting); it got a bit wearing by the time the event volunteer manager was introduced.

Uniforms a natty red, grey and white combo with bag, hat, umbrella AND a water bottle.

If anyone is attending any events, don't drive; the Emirates Arena & Velodrome only has one proper entrance to the car park, and that was tailbacked with only a couple of thousand volunteers attending.

MikeSmithson

pic.twitter.com/VB6s1f0oqU

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

Of no more than passing interest to most PBers I'm sure, and with still ambiguous (if any) political implications, I attended my orientation as a 'Clydesider' Commonwealth Games volunteer this morning. Usual mixture that seems required nowadays of flashing lights, big screens, filmed celeb endorsements, ipads, cheesiness, genuine anticipation and some creaky attempts to get an emotionally constipated Scottish audience to practice their Mexican waves. Everything and everyone had to be applauded (my hands are still smarting); it got a bit wearing by the time the event volunteer manager was introduced.

Uniforms a natty red, grey and white combo with bag, hat, umbrella AND a water bottle.

If anyone is attending any events, don't drive; the Emirates Arena & Velodrome only has one proper entrance to the car park, and that was tailbacked with only a couple of thousand volunteers attending.

I'm attending a few events at the Commonwealth Games.

DavidL

antifrank said:

Dan Hodges with a different article from the previous 463:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100262627/the-real-story-of-plebgate-even-the-police-cant-trust-the-police-any-more/

His account of events is depressingly believable.

Believeable but unbelieveable if you know what I mean. If the Met have found this out now why was it not available for the trial?

The daily repetition of this drivel and lies by the Police Federation with the willing, even enthusiastic, support of the BBC and others was truly bizarre at the time. Now it seems the most ill-advised campaign since Barbarossa.

Surely the Police Federation as a statutory body should be wound up. Surely there has to be wholesale management changes at the Met once again. Surely we deserve better.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

The only people who should be embarrassed about the Oscar Pistorious coverage is publicity shy Paddy Power.

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/mar/05/paddy-power-oscar-pistorius-ad-withdrawn-immediate-effect

Paddy has pulled the market !

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

A good friend of mine works within central high command of a police force outside London with a troubled relationship with the press. I took great pleasure in pointing out to him this morning that there's always someone worse off than you - a point he readily agreed with.

He doesn't work for South Yorkshire Police does he?

Surely not or it would not be true.

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Of no more than passing interest to most PBers I'm sure, and with still ambiguous (if any) political implications, I attended my orientation as a 'Clydesider' Commonwealth Games volunteer this morning. Usual mixture that seems required nowadays of flashing lights, big screens, filmed celeb endorsements, ipads, cheesiness, genuine anticipation and some creaky attempts to get an emotionally constipated Scottish audience to practice their Mexican waves. Everything and everyone had to be applauded (my hands are still smarting); it got a bit wearing by the time the event volunteer manager was introduced.

Uniforms a natty red, grey and white combo with bag, hat, umbrella AND a water bottle.

If anyone is attending any events, don't drive; the Emirates Arena & Velodrome only has one proper entrance to the car park, and that was tailbacked with only a couple of thousand volunteers attending.

I'm attending a few events at the Commonwealth Games.

Yeah, which ones?
Unfortunately I'm in the transport pool so may not get to see much of the action.

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

A good friend of mine works within central high command of a police force outside London with a troubled relationship with the press. I took great pleasure in pointing out to him this morning that there's always someone worse off than you - a point he readily agreed with.

He doesn't work for South Yorkshire Police does he?

Surely not or it would not be true.

Well they have such an excellent track record.

JosiasJessop

antifrank said:

Dan Hodges with a different article from the previous 463:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100262627/the-real-story-of-plebgate-even-the-police-cant-trust-the-police-any-more/

His account of events is depressingly believable.

If that's right (and the officers concerned deserve a fair hearing), then the scandal goes beyond what I thought and lands firmly in conspiracy land. Likewise, it says a great deal about their incompetence that, whilst they got their scalp, at least one has been convicted, and another lost his job.

I mean, if you can't even got police competent enough to be corrupt and get away with it, how on Earth will they be competent enough to catch criminals? (*)

The other day, someone from 'ooop north' said he could see the entire Met Police going the way of the RUC and being reformed from the ground up. After yesterday's announcement about the Lawrence inquiry, perhaps that's not too inconceivable.

(*) That's a joke, btw.

HurstLlama

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

A good friend of mine works within central high command of a police force outside London with a troubled relationship with the press. I took great pleasure in pointing out to him this morning that there's always someone worse off than you - a point he readily agreed with.

He doesn't work for South Yorkshire Police does he?

Oi! I resent that. There is within that remark a clear insinuation that a police force outside London with a reputation issue must be from the North (probably because they tend to be bigger). Forces in the South have problems too, you know.

My own local force was one of, if not the, first to have its Chief Constable sacked since the scandals of the early sixties (mind you considering the number of ACPO members who have departed under a cloud since that boast may no longer have the power that it used to).

MarkSenior

Ramsbottom is normally a pretty safe Conservative ward that had been trending towards the Conservatives in the last 15 years . The Conservative majority in 2008 was over 1,100 and in 2004 around 800 to 900 and in 2006 over 800 . Their results in 2011 and 2012 were poor especially in 2012 . The Conservative Get Out The Postal Vote was particularly effective in this by election but having said that their majority of 365 exceeded expectations . A very poor Lib Dem result but 10 to 14% was relatively poor in 2006 to 2008 .

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Of no more than passing interest to most PBers I'm sure, and with still ambiguous (if any) political implications, I attended my orientation as a 'Clydesider' Commonwealth Games volunteer this morning. Usual mixture that seems required nowadays of flashing lights, big screens, filmed celeb endorsements, ipads, cheesiness, genuine anticipation and some creaky attempts to get an emotionally constipated Scottish audience to practice their Mexican waves. Everything and everyone had to be applauded (my hands are still smarting); it got a bit wearing by the time the event volunteer manager was introduced.

Uniforms a natty red, grey and white combo with bag, hat, umbrella AND a water bottle.

If anyone is attending any events, don't drive; the Emirates Arena & Velodrome only has one proper entrance to the car park, and that was tailbacked with only a couple of thousand volunteers attending.

I'm attending a few events at the Commonwealth Games.

Yeah, which ones?
Unfortunately I'm in the transport pool so may not get to see much of the action.

A few hockey matches and a couple of the early athletic events.

I loved going to London 2012*, so wasn't going to miss out on this

*Most of that was watching the football in Manchester, but still was fun.

DavidL

JosiasJessop said:

antifrank said:

Dan Hodges with a different article from the previous 463:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100262627/the-real-story-of-plebgate-even-the-police-cant-trust-the-police-any-more/

His account of events is depressingly believable.

If that's right (and the officers concerned deserve a fair hearing), then the scandal goes beyond what I thought and lands firmly in conspiracy land. Likewise, it says a great deal about their incompetence that, whilst they got their scalp, at least one has been convicted, and another lost his job.

I mean, if you can't even got police competent enough to be corrupt and get away with it, how on Earth will they be competent enough to catch criminals? (*)

The other day, someone from 'ooop north' said he could see the entire Met Police going the way of the RUC and being reformed from the ground up. After yesterday's announcement about the Lawrence inquiry, perhaps that's not too inconceivable.

(*) That's a joke, btw.

I am sure that they can catch and convict people. Just not necessarily the right ones....

AlastairMeeks

Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe presumably is feeling a bit wobbly in his seat? He's not exactly had a good run of it recently, and some of his problems are self-inflicted. And the impression being given is of a force which is out of the control of its so-called leaders.

TheScreamingEagles

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

A good friend of mine works within central high command of a police force outside London with a troubled relationship with the press. I took great pleasure in pointing out to him this morning that there's always someone worse off than you - a point he readily agreed with.

He doesn't work for South Yorkshire Police does he?

Oi! I resent that. There is within that remark a clear insinuation that a police force outside London with a reputation issue must be from the North (probably because they tend to be bigger). Forces in the South have problems too, you know.

My own local force was one of, if not the, first to have its Chief Constable sacked since the scandals of the early sixties (mind you considering the number of ACPO members who have departed under a cloud since that boast may no longer have the power that it used to).

South Yorkshire Police have committed the most outrageous smears and lies in the history of British Policing.

It pains me as a proud South Yorkshireman and Liverpool fan, that it continues to this day

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/feb/05/hillsborough-police-chief-fans-drinking-inquest

DavidL

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

A good friend of mine works within central high command of a police force outside London with a troubled relationship with the press. I took great pleasure in pointing out to him this morning that there's always someone worse off than you - a point he readily agreed with.

He doesn't work for South Yorkshire Police does he?

Oi! I resent that. There is within that remark a clear insinuation that a police force outside London with a reputation issue must be from the North (probably because they tend to be bigger). Forces in the South have problems too, you know.

My own local force was one of, if not the, first to have its Chief Constable sacked since the scandals of the early sixties (mind you considering the number of ACPO members who have departed under a cloud since that boast may no longer have the power that it used to).

In Dundee confidential files that looked like they were going to be seriously embarrassing were stolen...from inside the police station. The crime has never been solved which suggests at least some competence on someone's part.

Casino_Royale

The Conservative Party heartlands are in the affluent, rural parts of England, be it in the north or south, plus the London commuterzone in the south east.

They win elections when they capture the everyday market and new towns as well, plus most of the middle-class suburbs of English cities, and with a chunk of the wealthier and less nationalistic parts of Scotland and Wales to carry them over the line.

Danny565

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I keep on telling PBers the Tories are strong in the North.

Edit: But Labour all they want to do is decapitate Clegg.

As I keep on telling them, don't hate your enemies.

For a lot of journalists, "the North" means Sheffield, Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, and nothing else.

Some of the Conservatives' safest seats are in the North.

Most of the Conservatives' ultra-safe northern seats are in very rural areas though. Northern suburbs on the edges of major connurbations, even affluent ones, have trended heavily away from them since the 1980s. Because people who grow up in northern cities and had it drummed into them that Thatcher was evil and the Tories were out to get them and deliberately trying to make their lives worse, can never quite shake the stigma that voting Tory has, even as they get older and wealthier and can afford to buy a house in the expensive suburbs. It's generally only rural areas, where naturally very few people who ever lived in a city ever migrate to, where the Tories still have bonafide strongholds in the north (Altrincham & Sale West is one of the only suburban-ish seats in the entire north where the Tories still get landslide wins, I think).

Bury North is one of those suburban-ish seats which I expect to continue trending towards Labour in the long run, and do firmly expect them to take it in 2015, so last night's result is pretty surprising for me (though then again it's obviously questionable how much you can read into a low-turnout vote like this)

TheWatcher

antifrank said:

Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe presumably is feeling a bit wobbly in his seat? He's not exactly had a good run of it recently, and some of his problems are self-inflicted. And the impression being given is of a force which is out of the control of its so-called leaders.

Where was he yesterday? In fact where were any high ranking spokesmen for the Met, other than in hiding?

HurstLlama

"... thought and lands firmly in conspiracy land..."

Mr. Jessop, no, no and thrice no! The CPS have already told us that there is no evidence of a conspiracy. The coppers involved in "Plebgate" might have colluded but that is not the same thing. For the difference between conspiring together in a criminal act and colluding in a criminal act you'll need to the services of Life_in_a_Market_Town, gent (and lawyer) of this parish, but as he is not around you might want to look up "Splitting hairs" and angels dancing on the head of a pin.

Incidentally, one thing that made me wonder about that Hodges article - there were two coppers sacked the other day in relation to the event, not just the one he mentions.

Casino_Royale

Who is the 3rd person in the Pistorius love triangle?

I was surprised to read there's no juries in South Africa.

taffys

To be fair to the current Met commissioner, a good deal of the alleged wrongdoing took place under his predecessors.

The period between 2000 and 2005 appears to have been particularly troublesome for the Met.

old_labour

I change channels whenever that story comes on.

AndyJS said:

Sky News are really embarrassing themselves IMO by putting the Pistorius trial as their main item all the time.

Richard_Nabavi

taffys said:

To be fair to the current Met commissioner, a good deal of the alleged wrongdoing took place under his predecessors.

The period between 2000 and 2005 appears to have been particularly troublesome for the Met.

That is true, but his handling of Plebgate has not exactly been a glorious example of fearlessly confronting problems in his force.

JosiasJessop

HurstLlama said:

"... thought and lands firmly in conspiracy land..."

Mr. Jessop, no, no and thrice no! The CPS have already told us that there is no evidence of a conspiracy. The coppers involved in "Plebgate" might have colluded but that is not the same thing. For the difference between conspiring together in a criminal act and colluding in a criminal act you'll need to the services of Life_in_a_Market_Town, gent (and lawyer) of this parish, but as he is not around you might want to look up "Splitting hairs" and angels dancing on the head of a pin.

Incidentally, one thing that made me wonder about that Hodges article - there were two coppers sacked the other day in relation to the event, not just the one he mentions.

True about angels and pins.

I think the second officer sacked was Wallis himself, who was mentioned in the article along with Glanville. A bit unclear of Hodges, that.

I ROFL'ed at Wallis trying to 'resign' after he pleaded guilty. I couldn't see the police letting him get away with that after all the publicity.

DavidL

antifrank said:

Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe presumably is feeling a bit wobbly in his seat? He's not exactly had a good run of it recently, and some of his problems are self-inflicted. And the impression being given is of a force which is out of the control of its so-called leaders.

The race to the bottom between the Met and South Yorkshire is not without it's complications for him either. He was there until 1997.

His vote of confidence in his officers seems to have been, well slightly misplaced.

JosiasJessop

Richard_Nabavi said:

taffys said:

To be fair to the current Met commissioner, a good deal of the alleged wrongdoing took place under his predecessors.

The period between 2000 and 2005 appears to have been particularly troublesome for the Met.

That is true, but his handling of Plebgate has not exactly been a glorious example of fearlessly confronting problems in his force.

The person I really want to see go in all this (and if he had any honour he would resign in shame) is the Met Police Federation's chairman, John Tully, who used Plebgate to accuse Cameron of saying 'hollow words' over the murders of PCs Nicola Hughes and Fiona Bone.

And an apology from Miliband in PMQs would be in order as well.

dr_spyn

Ridiculous photo of another politician. Dawn Primarolo and placard.

pic.twitter.com/ggdMlsnAC0

HurstLlama

"They [The Conservatives] win elections when they capture the everyday market and new towns as well, plus most of the middle-class suburbs of English cities,"

That sounds like a fair analysis, so how is Cameron going down in those key battlegrounds? Maybe the 2015 election will be unique as will be a case of two potential prime ministers both of whom, for different reasons, are disliked by they key voters. Maybe the old rules on which prediction s are based will not apply and it will come down far more than normal to that moment in the booth with pencil in hand and a decision to be made..

Alanbrooke

HurstLlama said:

"They [The Conservatives] win elections when they capture the everyday market and new towns as well, plus most of the middle-class suburbs of English cities,"

That sounds like a fair analysis, so how is Cameron going down in those key battlegrounds? Maybe the 2015 election will be unique as will be a case of two potential prime ministers both of whom, for different reasons, are disliked by they key voters. Maybe the old rules on which prediction s are based will not apply and it will come down far more than normal to that moment in the booth with pencil in hand and a decision to be made..

*splutter*

you mean Mr Llama Dave can't take your vote for granted ?

But Miliband Miliband scary scary bogeyman etc.

The Cameroons say you'll have to vote Dave or the world will stop.

Bond_James_Bond

What has this post to do with Scotland, which as any fule kno is the centre of the universe?

anotherDave

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I keep on telling PBers the Tories are strong in the North.

Edit: But Labour all they want to do is decapitate Clegg.

As I keep on telling them, don't hate your enemies.

Good point TSE. It sometimes seems that LAB's main objective is to punish the LDs not win back power.

This was the New Statesman's coverage of last nigh's by-elections. No mention of Ramsbottom

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/lib-dems-beaten-bus-pass-elvis-party-council-election

It's a funny story. They're not trying to punish anyone.

Stuart_Dickson

All is not well in the Betory Together pram.

'Labour MPs plan conference boycott amid income tax row'

Scottish Labour MPs are ­planning to boycott next month's party conference as the row over income tax escalates.

A number of Westminster ­politicians have indicated that they intend to snub the event in Perth at the end of March.

They are increasingly incensed at Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont's proposals to fully devolve income tax to Holyrood.

The dispute threatens to ­overshadow Scottish Labour's last conference before the independence referendum in September.

... The row also threatens to ­escalate into a power struggle between Scottish Labour and the party leadership.

One MP said the decision was not Ms Lamont's to make, "it is Ed Miliband's."

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/labour-mps-plan-conference-boycott-amid-income-tax-row.23365395

Bond_James_Bond

TheScreamingEagles said:

JosiasJessop said:

And on-topic for once, it was a marginal victory in a northern constituency.

However I cannot read 'Ramsbottom' without thinking of 'Despicable Me 2'

www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSKfC1E3vc4

This week I was in a meeting with people who had the surnames, Cockburn, Cummings and Balloch.

That's nothing. I once met a Turkish guy called Arman Mustafa Kunt and the same company also employed a Singaporean lady called Fanny Pong.

Turkish names are great. Ufuk is a common first name for men. So if a guy called Ufuk came to London and he bumped into someone, and if that someone then snapped "Why don't you look where you're going you f***," he would say in amazement, "How did you know my name?"

There used to be a Japanese restaurant in Camden called Otafuku.

peter_from_putney

Ah yes, Ramsbottom, the mere mention of that name reminds me of Stanley Holloway's classic rendition of "The Lion and Albert" :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Putw3by4-e8

DavidL

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

"They [The Conservatives] win elections when they capture the everyday market and new towns as well, plus most of the middle-class suburbs of English cities,"

That sounds like a fair analysis, so how is Cameron going down in those key battlegrounds? Maybe the 2015 election will be unique as will be a case of two potential prime ministers both of whom, for different reasons, are disliked by they key voters. Maybe the old rules on which prediction s are based will not apply and it will come down far more than normal to that moment in the booth with pencil in hand and a decision to be made..

*splutter*

you mean Mr Llama Dave can't take your vote for granted ?

But Miliband Miliband scary scary bogeyman etc.

The Cameroons say you'll have to vote Dave or the world will stop.

No Alan, the world will continue on its merry way. The United Kingdom,,,,not so much.

boulay

Bond_James_Bond said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JosiasJessop said:

And on-topic for once, it was a marginal victory in a northern constituency.

However I cannot read 'Ramsbottom' without thinking of 'Despicable Me 2'

www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSKfC1E3vc4

This week I was in a meeting with people who had the surnames, Cockburn, Cummings and Balloch.

That's nothing. I once met a Turkish guy called Arman Mustafa Kunt and the same company also employed a Singaporean lady called Fanny Pong.

Turkish names are great. Ufuk is a common first name for men. So if a guy called Ufuk came to London and he bumped into someone, and if that someone then snapped "Why don't you look where you're going you f***," he would say in amazement, "How did you know my name?"

There used to be a Japanese restaurant in Camden called Otafuku.

your meeting with the Turkish gentleman reminds me of this classic bit of Foreign office correspondence....


"H.M. EMBASSY
MOSCOW

Lord Pembroke
The Foreign Office
London

6th April 1943

My Dear Reggie,

In these dark days man tends to look for little shafts of light that spill from Heaven. My days are probably darker than yours, and I need, my God I do, all the light I can get. But I am a decent fellow, and I do not want to be mean and selfish about what little brightness is shed upon me from time to time. So I propose to share with you a tiny flash that has illuminated my sombre life and tell you that God has given me a new Turkish colleague whose card tells me that he is called Mustapha Kunt.

We all feel like that, Reggie, now and then, especially when Spring is upon us, but few of us would care to put it on our cards. It takes a Turk to do that.

(Signed)

Sir Archibald Clerk Kerr,
H.M. Ambassador."

Alanbrooke

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

"They [The Conservatives] win elections when they capture the everyday market and new towns as well, plus most of the middle-class suburbs of English cities,"

That sounds like a fair analysis, so how is Cameron going down in those key battlegrounds? Maybe the 2015 election will be unique as will be a case of two potential prime ministers both of whom, for different reasons, are disliked by they key voters. Maybe the old rules on which prediction s are based will not apply and it will come down far more than normal to that moment in the booth with pencil in hand and a decision to be made..

*splutter*

you mean Mr Llama Dave can't take your vote for granted ?

But Miliband Miliband scary scary bogeyman etc.

The Cameroons say you'll have to vote Dave or the world will stop.

No Alan, the world will continue on its merry way. The United Kingdom,,,,not so much.

I'm pretty sure the UK will soldier on without Cameron, he seems to be spending most of his time taking selfies these days.

Pulpstar

Barristers walkout - I note they have that surefire sign of a good old fashioned protest from the left:the big effigy of the evil Tory:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26483447

Here's one they made earlier

http://www.theweek.co.uk/pictures/52473/week-pictures-7-13-april

Mind you its all terribly British and restrained. I'll give our friends in the middle east top marks for this one - bonus points for the devil horns and fire.

http://satiricalpolitical.com/2007/05/06/bush-approval-rating-actually-negative-28-in-celsius/

All in all 6/10 for the effigy, it's definitely recognisable as Grayling but if they wanted to get higher up facebook clicks, BBC most liked and twitter trends they should really have gone and set it on fire

AlastairMeeks

Ukraine is overwhelmingly the big news story of the week.

But Oscar Pistorius is in at number 2 with a bullet:

twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/441962993505427457/photo/1

Charles

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

"They [The Conservatives] win elections when they capture the everyday market and new towns as well, plus most of the middle-class suburbs of English cities,"

That sounds like a fair analysis, so how is Cameron going down in those key battlegrounds? Maybe the 2015 election will be unique as will be a case of two potential prime ministers both of whom, for different reasons, are disliked by they key voters. Maybe the old rules on which prediction s are based will not apply and it will come down far more than normal to that moment in the booth with pencil in hand and a decision to be made..

*splutter*

you mean Mr Llama Dave can't take your vote for granted ?

But Miliband Miliband scary scary bogeyman etc.

The Cameroons say you'll have to vote Dave or the world will stop.

No, it won't stop. But Cameron has slowly begun the process of turning the ship of state around. It may be slower than we would have all liked, there may be times it seems to be going adrift, but you can just perceive the bows begining to swing in the right direction.

So you have a choice: carry on with the skipper who has managed to avoid a shipwreck despite some very inclement conditions, or go for the first mate whose cap'n nearly steered us onto the rocks in the first place. Alternatively you can jump overboard and swim after the mermaid (who is, of course, a Mirage) and lose interest in what happens to the ship

Bond_James_Bond

boulay said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JosiasJessop said:

And on-topic for once, it was a marginal victory in a northern constituency.

However I cannot read 'Ramsbottom' without thinking of 'Despicable Me 2'

www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSKfC1E3vc4

This week I was in a meeting with people who had the surnames, Cockburn, Cummings and Balloch.

That's nothing. I once met a Turkish guy called Arman Mustafa Kunt and the same company also employed a Singaporean lady called Fanny Pong.

Turkish names are great. Ufuk is a common first name for men. So if a guy called Ufuk came to London and he bumped into someone, and if that someone then snapped "Why don't you look where you're going you f***," he would say in amazement, "How did you know my name?"

There used to be a Japanese restaurant in Camden called Otafuku.

your meeting with the Turkish gentleman reminds me of this classic bit of Foreign office correspondence....


"H.M. EMBASSY
MOSCOW

Lord Pembroke
The Foreign Office
London

6th April 1943

My Dear Reggie,

In these dark days man tends to look for little shafts of light that spill from Heaven. My days are probably darker than yours, and I need, my God I do, all the light I can get. But I am a decent fellow, and I do not want to be mean and selfish about what little brightness is shed upon me from time to time. So I propose to share with you a tiny flash that has illuminated my sombre life and tell you that God has given me a new Turkish colleague whose card tells me that he is called Mustapha Kunt.

We all feel like that, Reggie, now and then, especially when Spring is upon us, but few of us would care to put it on our cards. It takes a Turk to do that.

(Signed)

Sir Archibald Clerk Kerr,
H.M. Ambassador."

LOL. Yeah, I always wondered if that letter was authentic.

It was hilarious in a childish way. Someone noticed a guy called A Kunt in the internal phone book and he then showed up in the office one day. How we laughed when we found out that A Kunt was in fact Arman Kunt (I would say to people "have you met Arman Kunt?" and they would go pale and say "Sorry...your man who?").

The crowning moment when was he started using his middle name when dealing with our clients in the Middle East. He was an extremely nice and smart man who was quite aware of what his name connoted. He said he would change it if he were to live in an Anglophone country for any length of time.

There must be British names that are comical in other languages, but you rarely hear of them, so perhaps foreigners are just too mature to laugh at them. The Rolls Royce Silver Mist is an example, Mist being German for dung. Sean Connery must amuse the French, surely, connerie being the French for bulls***.

state_go_away

antifrank said:

Ukraine is overwhelmingly the big news story of the week.

But Oscar Pistorius is in at number 2 with a bullet:

twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/441962993505427457/photo/1

If Sky News covered the story using that percentage of 6.7% as a guide to the share of time devoted to it I don't think anybody would complain

taffys

the big effigy of the evil Tory:

It's sometimes difficult to believe that these people are paid to present their case in the best possible light.

AveryLP

Pulpstar said:

Barristers walkout - I note they have that surefire sign of a good old fashioned protest from the left:the big effigy of the evil Tory:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26483447

Here's one they made earlier

http://www.theweek.co.uk/pictures/52473/week-pictures-7-13-april

Mind you its all terribly British and restrained. I'll give our friends in the middle east top marks for this one - bonus points for the devil horns and fire.

http://satiricalpolitical.com/2007/05/06/bush-approval-rating-actually-negative-28-in-celsius/

All in all 6/10 for the effigy, it's definitely recognisable as Grayling but if they wanted to get higher up facebook clicks, BBC most liked and twitter trends they should really have gone and set it on fire

The Thatcher caricature effigy is the winner but did you notice Putin confronting the Ukrainian Femen demonstrator at the Hanover Fair?

Most Putin posing is over-planned and wooden but the photographer caught him off guard here. And he doesn't come out badly from the ambush either by pap or papp!

http://bit.ly/1fLAN6x

AlastairMeeks

state_go_away said:

antifrank said:

Ukraine is overwhelmingly the big news story of the week.

But Oscar Pistorius is in at number 2 with a bullet:

https://twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/441962993505427457/photo/1

If Sky News covered the story using that percentage of 6.7% as a guide to the share of time devoted to it I don't think anybody would complain

Thirteen times as much coverage as the Scottish independence debate seems reasonable.

Pulpstar

taffys said:

the big effigy of the evil Tory:

It's sometimes difficult to believe that these people are paid to present their case in the best possible light.

I honestly think they should have set it on fire. If you're going to make a statement you might as well go the whole nine yards. The fact they are barristers would have made it even funnier.

Too frit about being struck off of the bar is my guess !

JosiasJessop

boulay said:

your meeting with the Turkish gentleman reminds me of this classic bit of Foreign office correspondence....

"H.M. EMBASSY
MOSCOW

Lord Pembroke
The Foreign Office
London

6th April 1943

My Dear Reggie,

In these dark days man tends to look for little shafts of light that spill from Heaven. My days are probably darker than yours, and I need, my God I do, all the light I can get. But I am a decent fellow, and I do not want to be mean and selfish about what little brightness is shed upon me from time to time. So I propose to share with you a tiny flash that has illuminated my sombre life and tell you that God has given me a new Turkish colleague whose card tells me that he is called Mustapha Kunt.

We all feel like that, Reggie, now and then, especially when Spring is upon us, but few of us would care to put it on our cards. It takes a Turk to do that.

(Signed)

Sir Archibald Clerk Kerr,
H.M. Ambassador."

It's even funnier when you realise that most Turks did not have surnames before 1934. Under Ataturk's changes, all families had to choose a surname. And it means that being called 'Kunt' is not a thing relating back hundreds of years, but a choice of your grandfather or great-grandfather ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_name#Surnames

It's like people who don't realise what words their child's initials make. I once knew a lad who would not tell us his middle names. We soon discovered it spelt JISM ...

Alanbrooke

Charles said:

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

"They [The Conservatives] win elections when they capture the everyday market and new towns as well, plus most of the middle-class suburbs of English cities,"

That sounds like a fair analysis, so how is Cameron going down in those key battlegrounds? Maybe the 2015 election will be unique as will be a case of two potential prime ministers both of whom, for different reasons, are disliked by they key voters. Maybe the old rules on which prediction s are based will not apply and it will come down far more than normal to that moment in the booth with pencil in hand and a decision to be made..

*splutter*

you mean Mr Llama Dave can't take your vote for granted ?

But Miliband Miliband scary scary bogeyman etc.

The Cameroons say you'll have to vote Dave or the world will stop.

No, it won't stop. But Cameron has slowly begun the process of turning the ship of state around. It may be slower than we would have all liked, there may be times it seems to be going adrift, but you can just perceive the bows begining to swing in the right direction.

So you have a choice: carry on with the skipper who has managed to avoid a shipwreck despite some very inclement conditions, or go for the first mate whose cap'n nearly steered us onto the rocks in the first place. Alternatively you can jump overboard and swim after the mermaid (who is, of course, a Mirage) and lose interest in what happens to the ship

tbh David I don't see it as an either or. I just aint going to vote Blue while Osborne is CoE and pursuing his current strategy of Gordon Brown in slow motion. Cameron likewise has no feel for voters outside the SE and struggles to motivate many on the right.

AveryLP

antifrank said:

state_go_away said:

antifrank said:

Ukraine is overwhelmingly the big news story of the week.

But Oscar Pistorius is in at number 2 with a bullet:

https://twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/441962993505427457/photo/1

If Sky News covered the story using that percentage of 6.7% as a guide to the share of time devoted to it I don't think anybody would complain

Thirteen times as much coverage as the Scottish independence debate seems reasonable.

The Pistorius story has legs.

[Deleted User]

When I was China based a few years ago the Finance Director of Shell Hong Kong's secretary rejoiced in the name of Fanny Pong! Genuinely. Dear me.

dr_spyn

Kuntz scores.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izCKtubriis

Pulpstar

AveryLP said:

Pulpstar said:

Barristers walkout - I note they have that surefire sign of a good old fashioned protest from the left:the big effigy of the evil Tory:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26483447

Here's one they made earlier

http://www.theweek.co.uk/pictures/52473/week-pictures-7-13-april

Mind you its all terribly British and restrained. I'll give our friends in the middle east top marks for this one - bonus points for the devil horns and fire.

http://satiricalpolitical.com/2007/05/06/bush-approval-rating-actually-negative-28-in-celsius/

All in all 6/10 for the effigy, it's definitely recognisable as Grayling but if they wanted to get higher up facebook clicks, BBC most liked and twitter trends they should really have gone and set it on fire

The Thatcher caricature effigy is the winner but did you notice Putin confronting the Ukrainian Femen demonstrator at the Hanover Fair?

Most Putin posing is over-planned and wooden but the photographer caught him off guard here. And he doesn't come out badly from the ambush either by pap or papp!

http://bit.ly/1fLAN6x

That's a great photo !

JosiasJessop

BBC banner:

Richard Walton moved as head of London's Counter Terrorism Command after damning report into undercover policing.

taffys

oo frit about being struck off of the bar is my guess !

When you're being well paid to win cases keeping foreign criminals in Britain, you ain;t going to get much sympathy from Joe Public.

And when you allow people like Cherie Blair and Mike Mansfield to be your poster boys, ditto.

MikeSmithson

JosiasJessop said:

BBC banner:

Richard Walton moved as head of London's Counter Terrorism Command after damning report into undercover policing.

Do they have undercover policing when it's raining?