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Punters unmoved by last night’s debate and the Labour manifesto launch – politicalbetting.com

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,533

    Labour doc. through the door today…. can’t really call it a leaflet. A bit about the candidates views but nothing about her.
    It has got a bar chart, though, showing, probably correctly, that only the Labour candidate can beat the Tory.

    Nothing from any of the others yet. Few Labour posters locally but no others. Positive Facebook post for Labour too.
    Makes me wonder about putting a small bet on Labour to oust Ms Patel.

    I had Labour at door yetserday , asked if I considered voting Labour , I cahsed her. Told her given they were against independence they would get no vote from me.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    kyf_100 said:

    Heathener said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Heathener said:

    I have a question for all you techies, which is a neat follow up to the Apple discussion.

    I don’t currently use my Apple Watch for contactless payments on Apple Pay. Do you do so? If so, and in the words of Gandalf, "is it secret? Is it safe?”

    Any advice / comments gratefully received.

    xx

    Not an Apple fan, I use Android, but yes I use contactless payments for ~99% of all my payments (Tesco pay@pump requires the use of a card annoyingly for the other 1%, Asda allows contactless at the pump). Though I normally use my phone more than my watch.

    Its far safer than any other means of payment IMHO. And has no piddly £100 limit unlikely normal contactless so you can do big expenditures on it too, but its more secure doing so on your own secure device than on a card.
    Apart from Express Pay (which only works on TfL services), it requires the use of a fingerprint or face. Both infinitely harder to break than a four digit pin which is as far as I can work out, is only a (1/10)^4 of guessing.
    The risk at the minute appears to be from people snatching your phone from your hand while it's unlocked and draining bank accounts.

    Supposedly if the phone is unlocked, it's easy to side load something that prevents it from locking again, then you can hack your way round the rest of the protections.

    I am incredibly wary these days about how much of my life I am giving away if someone snatches my phone out of my hand, especially if unlocked.
    Yep I’m very similar to you on this. Presumably the Apple Watch is a better bet then?
    I'm not sure, as I don't own a digital watch. But I imagine it depends on whether or not apple pay is enabled as NFC when not directly paired with (ie within bluetooth range of) the iPhone in question.
    The watch works entirely independently of the phone. You don’t even need your phone with you. It has its own sim.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    malcolmg said:

    Labour doc. through the door today…. can’t really call it a leaflet. A bit about the candidates views but nothing about her.
    It has got a bar chart, though, showing, probably correctly, that only the Labour candidate can beat the Tory.

    Nothing from any of the others yet. Few Labour posters locally but no others. Positive Facebook post for Labour too.
    Makes me wonder about putting a small bet on Labour to oust Ms Patel.

    I had Labour at door yetserday , asked if I considered voting Labour , I cahsed her. Told her given they were against independence they would get no vote from me.
    Why did you chase her??
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    Heathener said:

    I have a question for all you techies, which is a neat follow up to the Apple discussion.

    I don’t currently use my Apple Watch for contactless payments on Apple Pay. Do you do so? If so, and in the words of Gandalf, "is it secret? Is it safe?”

    Any advice / comments gratefully received.

    xx

    Apple Pay is way more secure than tapping a card. The ‘card’ number presented to the vendor changes every time with AP.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,910
    kle4 said:

    Labour Manifesto Part 2
    Strong foundations

    • National security – Labour founded NATO. ‘Set out path’ to 2.5% GDP on defence. Mentions Skripal poisoning (note – fair to say Corbyn would not have). Martyn’s Law to strengthen security at events. Police to have powers and resources they need (Note – no detail).
    • Secure borders – Conservatives only offer gimmicks. Rwanda cost hundreds of millions, and won’t work. Labour will go after gangs, new border security command, funded by ending Rwanda. New security agreement with EU. Clear asylum backlog. Fast track removals to safe countries.
    • Economic Stability – Tory mini budget was a disaster, country paying the price. Limits to what gov can spend, tax cuts don’t pay for themselves. Chaos not over, Tories have unfunded tax cuts still.
    • Labour fiscal rule that current budget moves into balance, day to day costs met by revenues. Debt must be falling as share of economy by fifth year (Note – I guarantee this will not happen).
    • Families struggling. Energy costs will be reduced, food prices reduced. Expand childcare.. Free breakfast clubs in every primary school (note – I think everyone has promised this so far).
    • No NI increase, VAT increase, of basic, higher or additional income tax increase. Abolish non-dom status. Tackle tax avoidance.
    Kickstart economic growth
    • Includes a pic of a café owner and ‘former conservative voter’.
    • New approach – securonomics (note – buzzwords are best words!)
    • New industrial strategy (note – LDs beat them to it)
    • National wealth fund 7.bn over 5 years
    • Money for ports, steel industry, gigfactories, green hydrogen
    • Stability through one fiscal event a year only.
    • 25% corporation tax cap
    • Replace business rates – same revenue fairer way (note – what does this even mean?)
    • Bring railways into public ownership, new powers for local bus routes.
    • Short funding for R and D replaced with ten year budgets (note – if that was possible why aren’t we doing it now?)
    • Housing crisis – reform NPPF to restore mandatory housing targets (note – this is a good idea), strengthen presumption in favour of sustainable development. Fund additional planning officers through increasing stamp duty surcharge.
    • “Where necessary” Labour will use intervention powers to build houses we need (note – I don’t believe them, the first backbench rumbles will stop that).
    • Brownfield first, but not enough on its own (Note – my gods, this is actually a sensible point!) Release lower quality green belt land.
    • Widen devolution
    • New statutory local growth plans
    • Multi year funding settlements for local government.
    • Labour will reduce net migration – says reform the points based system to be fair (note – in what way?).
    • National jobs and careers service. Support disabled people into work. Work or apprenticeships for all those under 21.
    • Legislation on making work pay within 100 days
    • Minimum wage will be a living wage, but no details.
    WRT "Debt falling as % of economy by fifth year" the Economist, within the past couple of weeks notes something important, and scary:

    While this is distant and ambitious, it's really worse than that. What 'by fifth year' means rolls forward by a year every 12 months. In other words in 2024 you have a paper plan to get there by 2029. In 2029 you have a paper plan to get there by 2034, and so on for ever. It isn't even slightly a plan to get out of impossible amounts of debt; and like the climate change CO2 plan, it intends to reduce debt by keeping on borrowing. Help.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    New thread…
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,538
    kle4 said:

    Labour Manifesto Part 3
    Make Britain a clean energy superpower

    • Create 650k jobs though Green industries.
    • Double onshore wind, triple solar panel, quadruple offshore win.
    • Will get Hinkley point c ‘over the line’ new nuclear stations will play a role.
    • Phased and ‘responsible’ transition in north sea. Not revoke existing licences. Oil and gas for decades to come.
    • Will close loopholes in the windfall tax – energy profits levy extended to end of next parliament.
    • Great British Energy Company – partner with industry and unions to deliver clean power – 8.3bn over 5 years.
    • Scotland to be powerhouse of clean energy mission
    • Tougher energy regulation
    • National wealth fund invest in ports, hydrogen, industrial clusters.
    • British hobs bonus to incentivize firms offering good conditions in marginals (note – actually they say industrial heartlands and coastal areas)
    • End injustice of mineworkers pension scheme (note – highly specific – what is the injustice?)
    • 66.bn for energy efficiency.
    • A lot of vague stuff on accelerating net zero.
    • 9 new national reiver walks, 3 new national forests
    • Water companies in special measures (note – not nationalise though)
    • Ban trail hunting and puppy smuggling.
    Take back our streets
    • Violence is high, few criminals caught. Community policing has been downgraded, trust in police down, justice grinding to a halt.
    • ‘Thousands’ of extra officers.
    • Hold ‘companies and executives cashing in on knife crime’ to account (note – I have no idea who is cashing in on this?)
    • New recruits paid for through efficiency (note – of course!)
    • Specific offence for assault on shopkeepers (note – why is a new law needed for this? – seems like a gimmick)
    • Ban ninja swords, zombie style blades.
    • Early intervention through pupil referral units and youth worker sin A & E.
    • Fast track rape cases, specialist courts at every crown court
    • New powers to intervene with failing forces.
    • Cut trial delays by allowing associate prosecutors to work on cases.
    • Tories failed to get prisons built – labour will use powers to build them
    • Hillsborough law
    • Lot of vague stuff on reducing reoffending and improving collaboration etc
    "End injustice of mineworkers pension scheme (note – highly specific – what is the injustice?)"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68638865

    "Government gets £420m from miners pension scheme"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,234
    Bet 365 have Keith Vaz at 41 to win Leicester East. Its a mad constituency and he has a lot of following there. I think that is value.
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