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Punters unmoved by last night’s debate and the Labour manifesto launch – politicalbetting.com
Punters unmoved by last night’s debate and the Labour manifesto launch – politicalbetting.com
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But there’s still a huge amount of uncertainty in this election.
1. How low will the Tories go?
2. Can the Tories cling to 150-180-ish seats or is ELE approaching?
3. Will there be Reform crossover? If it keeps surging how many seats can it realistically pick up?
4. Are LDs surging or flatlining?
5. Will the Labour vote share start with a 3 or a 4?
Still a fascinating election.
Wonder how many of them actually know what a Zionist is?
Although I’m sure it’s vague with respect to public services, it’s pretty clear what Labour’s fiscal policy will be and their planning policies also seem to be decently constructed.
We need growth, and I actually think Reeves gets that.
I'm not telling tales here, nor calling for any punishments! But is it worth reminding PBers of the rule that all subsamples must be presented as such, via the Subsample Klaxon?
It can get confusing – and yesterday evening was thick with it!
Radical stuff.
http://www.railwaycodes.org.uk/operators/franchises3.shtm
“Oh dear, it seems some of these retiring Labour MPs who had peerages dangled in front of them to encourage [them to] give up their seats, didn't know that in its manifesto Labour was about to impose a new age limit for members of the Lords, of 80 at the end of each Parliament.”
Good things: National Care Service
Bad things: more online safety so we can be protected from seeing things. Generational smoking ban. I don't believe their savings plan.
With an inflation target of 2%, if you don't even grow 2% you falling behind.
Productivity has been a growing problem for ages. The crashes of 2008 and 2020 haven't had the effects of previous recessions where businesses had to get lean and more productive or go busto.
Wanted to repost this as I found it so shocking.
https://x.com/HenMazzig/status/1800554756957708488
'Okay no Zionists. We're good.' The crowd cheers.
Gardenwalker - the comment was meant to be ironic. But I still don't think people are sufficiently horrified by all this stuff.
Everyone knows the libs are pro-EU so it’s hardly gonna put off likely voters. At the same time polls show great Brexit regret and a desire to rejoin and even a swing in favour of free movement
So this seems like an easy way for the libs to grab millions of votes - at a time of great volatility - and possibly overtake the Tories and become the official opposition. Chances like this happen once in a century. You could argue it’s a gamble (I don’t believe it is) but even then it’s a gamble with a massive prize
Yet they’re not doing it?
Why?
This is a sincere query. I don’t understand their positioning
I suspect it will cost them 5-10 target seats in the Westcountry.
Reeves does, and she recognises that within the terrible inheritance she is getting, she needs to see a reform in planning policy, an unlocking of capital investment (even if PFI is having to be considered in order to keep it off-balance sheet, and improved relations with the EU.
We also need to avoid taxing income and unlock some of the wealth stored up in non-productive assets.
It will be incredibly interesting to watch this play out. Also immigration policy will be fascinating, as it appears to have been used by the Tories to essentially cover up a collapse in GDP.
However, immigration is easier so that continues to be favoured by govt after govt.
I'd be surprised if Starmer's govt and Reeves' treasury will be any different.
1) The polling shows that other things are higher priority and they have decided the better long term choice is to be in all this debates; and/or
2) If you talk about rejoining, you get asked about the mechanism and it becomes apparent it’s almost impossible in the near future, and that our deal is long gone. You therefore force Labour to be more skeptical and make closer links less likely.
Section 1
"Careful Now!"
Section 2
"Down with this sort of thing"
Now Brexit is done (and we know, beyond the endless unicorns, what Frost and Johnson actually delivered, how it actually works and what we've actually lost and what we haven't gained) well, a big, big chunk of people, particularly those under 65, think it is somewhat sub-optimal, to say the least.
Mugged off by the bright young things in charge of Labour now.
Serves them right.
We will see. I am willing to give benefit of the doubt, but seems like lots of extra form filling for businesses is coming and taxes on wealth you have to be careful that you don't just crap all over people who are trying to build businesses.
The problem lots of countries have is the big globalised businesses are massive and different beast to your sub 100 person type business. It is how to get the balance right, when the globalised business has lots of strings they can pull.
From the JCR to the refectory
We're Palestine-protestor free
I suspect the territory may look very different in a couple of years time however, when the current generation who have been through the Brexit trauma start to move on. So maybe it's just too early.
1. That strategy was tried in 2019 and it failed, very badly. Only idiots repeat a failing strategy.
2. On Maslow's hierarchy of needs there are simply lots of things that are more urgent than spending years arguing about the EU again. I only know one Remainer who wants Rejoin to be a political priority, everyone else is thoroughly sick of the issue.
3. The one thing that might rally support back to the Tories would be any hint of Rejoin. The Lib Dems are primarily after Tory seats, and even if these seats voted Remain, they will have plenty of Leave voters they don't want to scare back to the Tories. Yes, you need something to bring support to you, but you also have to make yourself non-threatening to voters who might be motivated to vote to stop you.
To be serious, I visit a fair amount of university campuses, I don't think it was ever really a big deal in the way it was in the US.
And saying loudly and publicly that Brexit is a complete failure.
Many, many LD voters in the Westcountry voted that way because the Tories were too pro-Europe.
We had huge number of ld-con switchers in 2017 and 2019.
Like this one:
“Bring back free movement?
56% support 22% oppose
Partisan split
LibDems support 85-6
Labour support 76-11
Conservative oppose 35-42”
https://x.com/sundersays/status/1800776670301090153?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Voters no longer care about free movement in fact they want it. So it’s another open goal for the libs - but ignored
Second, re-joining the EU. We would need to know the terms on which we could re-join. The truth is the current arrangement probably works well for the EU and if re-joining meant the Euro and Schengen, we all know how such a referendum would go. The other aspect is how toxic the 2016 debate became to the extent lives were taken. Nobody wants or needs that kind of national trauma again.
Could we make the current arrangement work better? Undoubtedly.
We could investigate re-joining and re-forming EFTA as a trading arrangement with the EU - this might look quite attractive as a step back from political integration and a return to the original notion of the EEC as a free trade block. I suspect if the "Common Market" were put to the British public as an option it would be widely endorsed.
“There is no public appetite for Freedom of
Movement”
Bring back free movement?
56% support 22% oppose
Partisan split
LibDems support 85-6
Labour support 76-11
Conservative oppose 35-42
https://x.com/sundersays/status/1800776670301090153?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
"That would be an ecumenical matter."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/13/keir-starmer-labour-manifesto-costings-for-single-year/
Let it too late to finish their homework?
6...6...f##king don't piss out, throw them out.
After the Sky sessions with Starmer & Sunak, Daisy Cooper was interviewed to give an LD perspective. Slagged off Sunak and the Tories, didn't have a bad word to say against Starmer and Labour. Explicitly said that the LDs are targetting 80 Tory seats.
Certainly no equidistance these days.
How often do the Lib Dem’s get a chance to become the official opposition? Once every fifty years, if that? This is one such chance
The Tories are stricken. Potentially fatally. Labour are riding high but they’re not popular - they offer little and starmer is boring. So their vote is super soft, even as the right is split
So this a rare and miraculous chance to come surfing through the centre - but to do it they need some dramatic policies that appeal to floating voters
Rejoin single market on day one and a referendum in the first term would do exactly that. I personally know several soft labour voters who would probably be persuaded by that. They are Remainers who still hate Brexit, they are deeply irritated by Starmer’s
caution
Yet it looks like the libs are gonna fluff their one opportunity. Because they might lose in Yeovil or whatever. Morons
Fix the UK’s broken relationship with Europe by following our four-stage roadmap:
1.Taking initial unilateral steps to rebuild the relationship, starting by declaring a fundamental change in the UK’s approach and improving channels for foreign policy cooperation.
2. Rebuilding confidence through seeking to agree partnerships or associations with EU agencies and programmes such as the European Aviation Safety Agency, Erasmus Plus, scientific programmes, climate and environment initiatives, and cooperation on defence, security and crime.
3. Deepening the trading relationship with critical steps for the British economy, including negotiating comprehensive veterinary and plant health agreements and mutual recognition agreements.
4. Finally, once ties of trust and friendship have been renewed, and the damage the Conservatives have caused to trade between the UK and EU has begun to be repaired, we would aim to place the UK-EU relationship on a more formal and stable footing by seeking to join the Single Market.
All these measures will help to restore the British economy and the prosperity and opportunities of its citizens, and are also essential steps on the road to EU membership, which remains our longer-term objective.
It's a cautious wordy approach but the objective is clear.
It's a bit too cautious for me but I can live with it.
I understand "doorstep issues" of NHS, COL, Crime etc but all the parties are talking about them.
I'd like the LibDems to distinguish themselves with a snappier approach to Europe. But the direction is clear enough.
If we had had a contributory benefit system in the first place then Brexit wouldn’t have won because a lot of the stories, factual or not, about people coming over and sending all the benefits back etc etc, wouldn’t have existed and fewer people would be irritated by free movement.
No politician is brave enough to do this.
Ultimately, if you are going to have very high level of immigration, the system isn't sustainable unless you do move to such an approach.
It needs to be their first and biggest policy and it needs to be much more immediate and dramatic not “waffle waffle waffle long term blah blah”. Shout it out loudly and make sure people know the libs will have us in the single market on day 1 and a new vote in the first term
Yeah it’s a gamble. But the prize is enormous
£27,750 in tuition fees for a degree and six people can cause your exam to be cancelled? That's a joke.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GwQW3KW3DCc
Tonight on Channel 4 at 7.55pm, the Reform Party will release one of the most exciting Party Election Broadcasts ever produced.
I’m amazed it even got past compliance, but we did it.
You won’t want to miss this.
I am still very disappointed that when the eco-fascists ran on the Twickers pitch that one of the security guards got to a protestor before Manu Tuilagi did, who had sprinted 20 yards to intercept them.
I thought it was very funny when they interviewed the legal council that South Park keep on retainer. Every week, can we say x, no that could be very tricky, but you can say y. But that is surely worse....
All I can see on BBC is that "planning is at the heart of reforms" but then silence on what those reforms are?
Our planning system and NIMBYism is the biggest barrier to growth and development in this country. But as far as reforms are concerned, I'll believe it when I see it.
This seems out of line with other markets, particularly when it'll be a divided opposition. Electoral Calculus has it as about 53rd safest Tory seat iirc. So I'm on.
But it's also something that should surely be a story in itself. The market thinks there's a 1/3rd chance the current PM loses his seat! Talk about a Portillo moment!
However I am also fascinated by politics - as we all are on here - and I can spot a massive political opportunity when it is going begging. And that’s what I see here
Oh well. If the libs have a lack of ambition and are happy just to claw back five or ten seats so be it, that is their destiny
Margaret Beckett is 81, Margaret Hodge 79 and Barry Sheerman 83 and I think they are the only ones likely to be affected. The others are either at least one parliamentary term younger, like Harriet Harman at 73, and George Howarth at 74, and a lot more in their 60s, or not famous enough.