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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New PB analysis finds that LAB and UKIP are much more relia
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New PB analysis finds that LAB and UKIP are much more reliant on those who didn’t vote last time than either the Tories or Lib Dems
The big Populus/FT online aggregate data for February with an overall sample of 14,203, provides a mine of information presented in a form that makes possible a number of detailed analysis areas which you cannot do with conventional polling data.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26461833
I look forward to the explanations why this is good news for the Yes campaign.
It matches fairly closely, except the LibDem number which I have higher, the figures that are crunched in my ARSE.
The latest ARSE 2015 General Election projection published on PB on Tuesday showed :
Con 302 .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 39 .. Others 33
And it was all going so well...
EDIT: Followed it now. Meh. Don't need 'em anyway. Troublemakers
And does this certainty to vote filter vary significantly between pollsters? I am not sure I understand enough of the context.
Do these half wits have any intelligence.
LOL and of course the SNP remains silent when Sean Connery opines on Scottish Independence.. isn't he a multi millionaire pal of Salmond?
Obviously this doesn't apply to those turning 18 since May 2005. I suspect that a good proxy would be "did their parents vote at the last GE" but doubt you can extract this from the data.
Reality is that the oil industry works on decade long timescales - we need that long to explore, study, invest, build, produce. Moving investment climates make getting economic projections right very difficult - so sometimes we decide not to invest. Brown and then Osborne seriously pissed off the whole industry with their tax raids. And this has undoubtedly cut investment in the North Sea.
All the Shell CEO is doing is exercising his fiduciary duty and voicing the industry view - Scottish independence introduces a bunch of uncertainties (currency, tax regime, investment credits, etc) and this simply makes allocating investment capital to Scotland instead of Qatar or the USA, for example, harder to justify at Business Plan time.
But let's assume that Labour is on 40. 20% is equivalent to 8% vote share. Assuming that half of those turn out on the day that is a very significant deduct to Labour's score. Interesting for the Tories, though, as they need to pitch the campaign as differentiated from the Coalition, but not so differentiated that it encourages Labour-leaning DNV to turn out.
Not all the 18-24 category were to young to vote last time, mind,
The other issue is where the 2010 non-voters are. If they are in already safe Labour seats (or safe Tory seats for UKIP), then whether they actually turn out or not is going to make very little difference. If, on the other hand, they are in battleground seats it could be a significant issue.
Very much agree with your comments re Shell. They have been divesting of some of their mature fields and of course any investment in exploration or secondary extraction is huge.
Re: YouGov.
In today's 34/37/10/11, again the 2010 LD split is Lab 32/LD 40.
2010 Cons back the Cons at 80% which is quite high.
To the question which would make the best prime Minister?
Cameron: 35(-2) Gets support of 94% of Con VI
Miliband: 22 (-6) Gets support of 61% of LAB VI
Clegg: 5(-1) Gets support of 45% of LD VI
Do Not Know: 38(+9)
...particularly as people remain unimpressed by Miliband - see today's YouGov where his "best PM" rating has fallen from 28% back down to 22%.
32% of current Labour voters don't know who would make the best PM.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/h5ylo0ahe5/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-050314.pdf
If a DNV switches to Labour in a safe seat it won't affect the result, but it still means the headline poll number is misleading in terms of their winning power.
Someone better at stats than me will know the answer, but I'd assume there is higher turnout in battlegrounds - but perhaps I'm being naive in assuming more intense campaigning is a good thing for turnout...
I can offer some semi-anecdotal input too, based on thousands of impressions. I assess how campaigns are going by comparing what people tell us now with what they told us before - that's always proved very reliable. I can confirm that a lot of "didn't vote last time" voters are in our column (in Broxtowe anyway). They're a mixed bag. Quite a lot are quite political people who didn't like Gordon but didn't feel they could vote Tory. They will vote next time. Some are young, probably away at uni at election time - the postal vote effort and explaining the marginality of the seat is crucial for these. Some are not very interested, and although we'll work on them I assume half of those won't vote, though our GOTV operation is pretty good. An honest guess is that you can knock a point off our score for this factor - it's an issue, but not a massive one.
(Both outliers of course, but that doesn't stop me selectively using them...)
That's about all that we can usefully say right now.
Not the most convincing argument it must be said. – besides, what does the CEO of Europe’s largest oil company know about business?
On the voter turnout, don't the majority of polls consistently overstate Labour and understate the Tories compared to actual turnout, with the odd notable and gold standard exceptions?
It may well be just rich pals of Cameron or whatever tag Malcolm wishes to give them who are suggesting it would be bad for Scotland to leave the UK but these "rich pals" employ hundreds of thousands of Scots and the companies they run contribute tens/hundreds of £millions to the exchequer. Maybe more of the comrade workers should remember without the rich capitalists who employ them, they would be unemployed.
Scotland already suffers from a seriously top-heavy public sector thanks to Labour ballooning it for 13 years. We are now seeing the price of that with councils closing offices which frankly should never have been opened in the first place. Sadly in Highlands, we are seeing important local offices shut so the council big wigs can protect their empires closer to home.
I think that Miliband will have enough seats to form a government myself, but Jack and Rod are formidably good predictors. A lot depends on how different the coalition makes things, so the past may be unreliable this time round.
There will be a low turnout next time round, apathy and the palpable lack of entusiasm will win out, so I cannot see many who did not vote in 2010 turning out this time.
It'll be interesting to see whether those 2010 non-voters actually turn out, or whether the reds and purples will suffer premature jubilation on polling day.
*Means-test Old Age Pensions; cash-limit NHS care for any individual; remove social housing tenants from high income areas etc etc
That makes it one of the four or five most cash generative companies in the world - alongside ExxonMobil, Apple, and very few others.
Now, you can argue that all the oil majors struggle with reserve replacement, that governments have been aggressive at reducing oil companies' take, and that they 'missed the boat' in unconventionals in the US. But you cannot argue that Shell is somehow struggling to "keep themselves afloat".
Nor could I see a Continuity coalition, that would be the path to the fate of the National Liberals of the fifties. A Conservative minority govt with a replay within a year (possibly with three new leaders) would be on the cards.
And that is a hatrick!
;-)
http://www.shell.com/global/aboutshell/who-we-are/leadership/executive-committee/ben-van-beurden.html
My only caveat is that some of the seats are right at the very margin, presently favouring the Conservatives.
Now you really are teasing! Isn't your affiliation very focused on Risk Management.
@rcs1000
Yes I was aware of Patrick's allegiance and knew you were joking. You may be aware that our business is very close to the O&G industries.
That is far outside malcolmg's field of experience - have mercy - please do not stretch his mind too far at this early hour.
Especially if it all goes t-ts up and the buck stops at you. The focus of unwanted attention at a board meeting is not an experience to desired.
The Phantom Easter Egg Snatcher of Old Bedford Town.
So did he qualify and have to live under the stigma of Free School Meals? That would explain all.
Semi seriously, though, PR is effectively a specialist form of risk management (protecting the brand) plus some commercial aspects in promoting future growth
Erm…no.
Since what I do for a living is not really a secret let me describe. I have two jobs in my role:
I run the financial controls for our Upstream business – so identifying risks, designing the financial controls framework, implementing and testing the controls. We need to comply with Sarbanes Oxley – which is a burden. I spend quite some time with our external auditors. In this role I am a finance person (qualified accountant, fellow of my institute, etc).
I also run the Governance Risk and Assurance for our Gas business (part of Upstream). This means identifying the risks to achievement of corporate objectives, identifying and implementing actions to mitigate those risks, chairing Business Assurance Committee, design Assurance Plan, ensuring right directorships in subsidiaries, etc. In this role I am a risk management person (qualified risk manager, IRM member, etc)
Both roles, in somewhat different spaces, are about making sure we manage our risks and deliver what we promise/ meet our objectives. Requires alot of time with senior management discussing objectives, strategies, risks and actions. It is DOING.
PR is all about messaging, reputation management, spin, perceptions, communication. This is also vital stuff for a large company, especially one in a very political and public industry and with a huge brand to manage. But it is about SEEMING.
Here endeth the lesson.
That is quite a handful and must require quite a bit of diplomacy at times.
We do a lot of risk management and assessment for many industries including O&G, globally. We model many 'what if' scenarios and also get engaged with probability theory.
Also we go into battle, on behalf of our clients, with organisations like EA, HSE and OSHA and their equivalents who often have a skewed (and partial) view of such matters.
- Well it's just very nice to feel wanted http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/yes-or-no-the-female-vote-is-vital-to-outcome.23604495
I know what risk management is... (I'd actually argue that PR is a form of risk management. The intangible value of a brand/reputation is huge and so needs to be risk managed the way that other assets are).
My corporate persona is MUCH more measured, diplomatic, professional than my PB persona - where you get the real me, warts, rude words and all!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1310_in_Ireland
In a speech later today Mr Miliband will say that the 15% bonus on annual salaries to be paid to all staff of John Lewis and especially Waitrose was a clear signal that free coffee at Waitrose stores was a wicked and evil move intended to deprive Labour voters, who cannot afford prices at the top store, from receiving a hot drink during a bitter winter snap.
It is believed Mr Miliband will say :
"We need to ensure that these vastly overpaid check out woman and shelf stackers don't take the bread from the mouths of starving bankers and almost destitute MP's"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26462969
;-)
I thought "Women For Independence" was a pressure group within Ukip campaigning for the fairer sex to be unchained from their kitchen sinks ?!?
What will Ed Miliband have to say about this attack on the cost of living?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26462969
As a personality defect, and to save time, I don't generally follow or engage in team sport.
Oil is typically found in countries that are violent, backward, corrupt, sectarian, neo-feudal kleptocracies. Iran; Saudi Arabia; Russia.
Scotland would thus be a very familiar business climate for Shell. Their CEO's point is simply that Shell has options and iScotland would not be the same place or present the same risks as does UK.
Have there been any Downfall parodies about Salmond yet?
Malcolmg is a straight down the line Scottish nationalist and makes no bones about it. There is no sophistry in what he says, he is completely honest about where he stands. I don't agree with his views, but good on him for not hiding them behind a veneer of progressiveness.
Or perhaps RCAR, but yes.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1177583.ece