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The Swinney slump continues – politicalbetting.com
The Swinney slump continues – politicalbetting.com
YouGov Holyrood constituency voting intention (13-17 May)Lab: 35% (+3 from 26-29 Apr)SNP: 34% (-2)Con: 13% (-3)Lib Dem: 10% (+1)Green: 5% (+2)https://t.co/yHr7luTcEs pic.twitter.com/NOyOkBwhpN
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Quite some time since I made the top spot…
Labour is probably sitting very pretty in Scotland given the ongoing deflation of the SNP. If the SNP falls below the tipping point they could be back on just a handful of seats.
Swinney offers the same kind of relief as Sunak did after Truss - stability vs immediate risk of capsizing, but like Sunak's Tories the boat is still sinking.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?type=scotland&SCOTCON=12&SCOTLAB=39&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTNAT=29&SCOTReform=4&SCOTGreen=7&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
FPTP is a cruel mistress.
To be a poor leader of the SNP once is unfortunate. To be a poor leader of the SNP twice is downright careless.
Speaking today which did they ever sort out the major structural flaws in the ferries? Or will they sink as they start sailing Scottish waters?
Is still SNP policy to use the next Westminster election as a de facto independence referendum?
We could see the Scottish Tories end up with more seats than the SNP.
Unlikely but not outside the realms of possibility.
I would laugh so hard if that happened I would inevitably break some ribs.
More than 700,000 people are on NHS waiting lists and record numbers are going private to avoid waiting for up to five years to have hips and knees replaced. Hundreds of criminals are being released this week onto the Scottish streets because of overcrowding in prisons. Drug deaths, already the worst in Europe, have gone up again by 10 per cent.
We are told that a quarter of children are in poverty; violence in schools is at record levels; social care is at a standstill. If these are not emergencies then I do not know what is. And do not even mention ferries, roads, recycling and other more mundane botch-ups.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-scotland-permanent-state-emergency-jz7s0p07b
https://x.com/BobbyAllyn/status/1792679435701014908
So, inevitably, our health service is in crisis, education is not performing well, our infrastructure is inadequate, criminal justice is on its knees, social care is becoming unaffordable resulting in never ending paring to stretch what is available to cover unmet needs and our housing stock is not meeting demand, at least where people actually want to live. The cumulative consequence of these failures is an economy that is feeble and does not provide the tax base to fix the problems.
Swinney is not innocent of these failures as he has been an incompetent minister in various departments over the years, just as his predecessor was, but even I can feel a bit sorry for him given the size and complexity of the intray.
We desperately, urgently need to find ways to improve public services without throwing money we don’t have at them. There are no easy solutions to this. Simply blaming the current crop of politicians is simplistic and irrelevant. But they do need to at least start to address real issues rather than hand waving.
David Cameron has written to Rishi Sunak warning that universities will face job losses and even closure if he pushes ahead with curbs to graduate visas
Sunak is weighing up measures to ensure only ‘best and brightest’ come to U.K.
Cameron: ‘One of the consequences of any restrictions on graduate visas is that universities will experience further financial difficulties — leading to job losses, closures and a reduction in research’
He highlights the ‘significant economic contribution’ that international students make to the economy
He also warns that it could damage Britain’s ‘soft power’
He joins a coalition of ministers opposed to hardline curbs on graduate visas including Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor and James Cleverly, the home secretary
Ally of Sunak pushes back: ‘Ultimately ministers get lobbied and make a case for their equities but the PM has to take the right position for the country’
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1792815604681826523
Don't expect them to treat you, your data, or your privacy, any differently.
https://x.com/QuantaMagazine/status/179281703007407351
I know I bang this drum all the time but Scotland's economy isn't too shabby at all, by UK standards. We beat all of England except for London and the SE.
But you're right that public spending that is an issue, though some of that is inevitable given the highlands and islands, historical drug and alcohol issues and so on. Health inequality in Glasgow is just astonishing.
*Lib Dems are a bit odd and turning into a right wing party in some respects
The same headlines and problems are all over the Western world, and there’s not a lot of politicians out there offering anything more than simplistic solutions to complex problems. Meanwhile, China is getting its communist tentacles everywhere around the world, and Russia is forcing the Europe to rapidly up its defence game.
For some reason I recall the scene from Slide Rule where NSN is shown a piece of rotten outer cover from R101. And when asked if it has all been replaced, the chap showing it to him replies “they say they have”.
More importantly, 25% of the current prison population is on remand, that is awaiting trial. The backlog in our courts is costing us a fortune as well as creating serious injustices. This is also a consequence of the failure to develop cheaper alternatives like bail hostels.
Even more importantly, there is a failure to recognise that the true purpose of prisons in all but the most serious cases is to reduce the risk the offender will do what he or she did again. That means ensuring that they have housing to go to, job opportunities, ongoing treatment for mental health and addiction, help in rebuilding their relationships with their families and communities. Early release simply abandons these goals that politicians won’t talk about because people are focused on punishment.
There was a similar early release during Covid. More than half ended up back in jail in short order. More victims, more pressure on the system, more court time, bah.
The solution in the short term is to spend more money - fix the crumbling infrastructure, hire the staff, create an environment where things actually work. Then you don't need temp staff and emergency measures which cost so much more.
Plan the work, work the plan. Problem is that we have a revolving door of ministers in both governments with a need for very short term political fixes. So we spend £lots on stupid, make the problem worse, and then as always blame the users.
1) Tony Blair wanted to see 50% go to university
2) To ensure kids become lefties
3) In the good old days only like 10% went to university
4) Going to university when you aren't academically gifted is so woke
5) Make these wokesters work from the age of 19 will make them Tories
6) Doing a BA 'history of needlework as a tool of the patriarchy' at the University of Brighton is a front for letting illegal migrants in
So shutting down unis shall reduce the number of lefties and illegal immigrants.
I hate to break it to them but it was the policy of Thatcher, enacted by Major, to ensure 40% went to university with the old polys converting to unis
Answer 'Moon Rabbit' and you can go straight to ConHome.
@RobertJenrick
We urgently need to unwind the sector’s growing dependency on foreign students.
The graduate route should be scrapped and we must fundamentally rethink our International Education Strategy (IES), including the completely arbitrary target of attracting 600,000 foreign students pa"
https://x.com/RobertJenrick/status/1790345212193075467
You don't want to do that either? Oh. Bit stupid aren't you?
2015
Lib Dem - 7.9% of the vote got them 8 seats
UKIP - 12.6% of the vote got them 1 seat.
Government policy has been to knowingly make the problem worse.
Why have we had such an influx of foreign students? Because of government policy! Cut funding by substituting in tuition fees. Great - but we could cut even more funding if universities can get even more fees. Which means foreign students - lets do that!
A few years later - why do we have all these Chinese students? Bloody foreigners, lets make them Go Home. [but what about funding?] Funding? Nothing to do with the government, we don't fund you, your problem, we must do what is Right For Britain.
And still a dogged handful of people insist that we should vote for them.
I have a passing acquaintance with a voice actor who, some time ago, told me that some were hired to do work, unaware their voices were being used to train AI. I don't know if that was straight-up cloning or simply to create/hone the process of enabling generation/cloning but it's still pretty wretched.
It needs to be thought of as a continuous effort - and the benefits will be a few prevent here and there. But compounded over time, it will turn the ship around.
Assuming it worked, which is doubtful.
And that 'events' do not intervene.
With no guarantee its replacement will be any great improvement.
10% of American prisoners will be raped.
I then segue into discussions about the Natwest Three & others then remind staff that we have a very one sided extradition treaty with the States.
It is fair to say I do get their attention in these compliance sessions.
https://tomblomfield.com/post/750852175114174464/taking-risk
I just spent a week talking with some exceptional students from three of the UK’s top universities; Cambridge, Oxford and Imperial College. Along with UCL, these British universities represent 4 of the top 10 universities in the world. The US - a country with 5x more people and 8x higher GDP - has the same number of universities in the global top 10.
On these visits, I was struck by the world-class quality of technical talent, especially in AI and biosciences. But I was also struck by something else. After their studies, most of these smart young people wanted to go and work at companies like McKinsey, Goldman Sachs or Google.
I now live in San Francisco and invest in early-stage startups at Y Combinator, and it’s striking how undergraduates at top US universities start companies at more than 5x the rate of their British-educated peers. Oxford is ranked 50th in the world, while Cambridge is 61st. Imperial just makes the list at #100. I have been thinking a lot about why this is. The UK certainly doesn’t lack the talent or education, and I don’t think it’s any longer about access to capital.
People like to talk about the role of government incentives, but San Francisco politicians certainly haven’t done much to help the startup ecosystem over the last few years, while the UK government has passed a raft of supportive measures.
Instead, I think it’s something more deep-rooted - in the UK, the ideas of taking risk and of brazen, commercial ambition are seen as
negatives...
As a consequence of which, when K Forbes does become leader, which she will unless she joins the Tories first, it will be of a party in a position of coming second and with absolutely zero chance of independence within decades.
Betting post: I suggest she will be next leader of the SNP (60% probability). The main risks are as above, or that she will decide being a mother is more fun.
(On religion, PBers and politics anoraks generally forget that among the ordinary mainstream population, they don't go to church and don't sing unaccompanied psalms to tuneless drones, but they admire and respect those who do).
It’s not so much of a problem if you’re Scarlett Johansson and can kick up a massive stink about it, but for less well-known actors it threatens to put many of them out of business.
What is the alternative? You say it is "doubtful" that spending money on permanent staff (cheaper) would work vs the current crisis spending on temps and moving from crisis to crisis (more expensive). Your proposal is?
Short-termism is a disease which has done serious damage to both our economy and our political system. We have weaponised the stock exchange so that businesses operate on a quarterly basis, focused on keeping the speculators happy in the immediate term rather than focusing on long term value.
Same in pur politics. We need services - education, healthcare, transport, utilities, defence etc - planned on a longer cycle than the next election. Is that not self-evident? Again, what is your alternative?
We say we want to replicate the US tech companies. But sell off ARM to the highest foreign bidder...
Only three ways apply to spending more until the promised growth arrives: borrowing more, taxing more or cutting (massively) elsewhere.
Do let us know the plan.
Tesla are delivering way below promises. Apple have abandoned the idea. Aside from robotaxis in some heavily-geofenced areas, Waymo et al have nothing for the consumer.
What are the chances that these investments prove to be a dead-end, and most of that 'investment' wasted?
(I think the traditional car companies have a better approach by slowly improving driver aids, rather than going for the (so far) illusionary level-5 fully automated dream.)
It started in feudalism and echoes down via Jane Austen and To The Manor Born to the renterism of today.
Right-wing parties make up a small minority of voters in Scotland according to the latest polls. There are no votes there. Kate Forbes might win Moray, some Aberdeenshire seats and errrr...
And while Labour now have a lead in Scotland, it's not like the SNP have crashed. What's even more impressive is that a SNP to Labour or Green switch is quite an easy one, ideologically speaking, yet the SNP have managed to cling onto most of their supporters.
The SNP have, quite sensibly, recognised they have lost the next couple of elections and gone for a sedate cruise into the political wilderness. They need to ruffle as few feathers as possible to retain what donations, legacies and short money they can. From there they can rebuild.
I remind you that this is the party of the motorhome, currently polling on 29% in a crowded left field!
At Westminster too they now lead in Scottish as well as English and Welsh polls and are heading for a UK Labour majority. Some comfort for Scottish Tories though in that the poll suggests a small swing from SNP to Conservative at Westminster which suggests they should hold or even gain seats in Scotland in contrast to 1997
The tech companies make a lot of noise, but keep finding more and more edge cases that cause problems. They’re damn close to being incompatible with roads used by others, outside a very tightly controlled environment. As has been said many times, it’s not a 90%-10% problem, it’s a 99.99%-0.01% problem.
I suspect that what’s needed to properly develop them is a new city built around them, with total grade separation of pedestrians and cyclists from the roadway. Perhaps the Saudis will take up that project.
Microplastics found in every human testicle in study
Scientists say discovery may be linked to decades-long decline in sperm counts in men around the world
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/20/microplastics-human-testicles-study-sperm-counts
Nick Wallis
Tue 21 May 2024"
https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/sleepy-lyons/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tks-ByeW9k
SNP failure to build new ferries. Cause: Virtue Signalling?
SNP failure to invest in A9 and A96 dualling. Cause: Virtue Signalling?
SNP failure to fund councils, especially outside the central belt. Cause: Virtue Signalling?
etc etc
Virtue Signalling?
(TBF I'm assuming similar trends across home nations)
Period Prison population
remand total
30-Jun-2008 13,440 83,194
30-Jun-2009 13,276 83,391
30-Jun-2010 13,004 85,002
30-Jun-2011 12,464 85,374
30-Jun-2012 11,324 86,048
30-Jun-2013 10,971 83,842
30-Jun-2014 12,197 85,509
30-Jun-2015 11,785 86,193
30-Jun-2016 9,288 85,134
30-Jun-2017 9,638 85,863
30-Jun-2018 9,285 82,773
30-Jun-2019 9,145 82,710
30-Jun-2020 11,388 79,514
30-Jun-2021 12,727 78,324
30-Jun-2022 13,409 80,659
30-Jun-2023 15,523 85,851
31-Mar-2024 16,458 87,869
And the assumption that spending more money will somehow be spent more efficiently than what is currently being spent is more than optimistic.
The law of diminishing returns almost always applies to government spending.
Still if you're able to convince the public sector workforce to forego pay rises for the next five years so that extra money can be found to resolve long term problems then go for it.
But you don't have to because Wes Streeting will be having a go at his long term reforms later this year.
And immediately running into the opposition of all the vested interests.
Good for hammering out post-lagershed grade opinion articles.
Writing software that runs, not so much.
Every country has a different approach to RnD and a quick analysis blinkered by the UK approach would result in a biassed picture.
If, as she herself now seems to suggest, Nicola Sturgeon was a divisive figure that many people chose not to listen to, why was Scotland's entire public communication response in
We should be comparing ourselves with the higher growth western economies - I thought that was supposed to be the point of Brexit ?
None of your comparators have quite our strength at the top end of the university system, for a start.
Ycombinator (which is where this vcap guy hails from) is particularly interesting from our point of view, as it's very early stage stuff, and relatively small investments (starting around
$500k).
And he's not talking about the follow on funding problem (which we obsess over, and which is a separate problem), but the fact that so few of our STEM grads become entrepreneurs.
A different perspective would be to ask how somewhere like South Korea gets it right.
It won’t happen at 5* hotels though, for the same reason the airlines still look after their first class passengers personally.
We're back to people being able to add some beans by the look of it...
The money needs to be paid back to the government to cut the debt.
AI is like taking with a drunk professor. He gets all excited and says a lot of things which sound plausible. But too often you find that he is spouting a mixture of truth and crap and you are left trying to work out which is which.
The UK's not-on-remand prison population.
Period Non-remand prison population
30/06/08 69754
30/06/09 70115
30/06/10 71998
30/06/11 72910
30/06/12 74724
30/06/13 72871
30/06/14 73312
30/06/15 74408
30/06/16 75846
30/06/17 76225
30/06/18 73488
30/06/19 73565
30/06/20 68126
30/06/21 65597
30/06/22 67250
30/06/23 70328
31/03/24 71411
By contrast, both the SNP and the UK Tories have had three leaders in that time.
Starmer may not be to everybody's taste, but at least you know what you're getting.
1) Higher taxes for the rich and property owners
2) Higher productivity and retirement age extension for workers
3) Lower spending on oldies and poor
A bit of pain all round, we're all in this together right, and if you're a rich, property owning oldie more than a bit.
And if any public sector worker is unable to increase output then its a pay freeze while the great long term investment and reform is done.
I'm fine with this - I'll pay a bit more tax, I'll delay my retirement for three months beyond what I expected, I'll receive six months less state pension.
But you go and get the rest of the country to accept their share of the pain.
No exceptions.
Surely.
Another defection…
After eight incredible years at The Times, including four years having the time of my life on Times Radio, I’m slightly stunned to be joining the amazing team at BBC Radio 5Live to launch a brand new daily politics show in the autumn.
It’s exactly 20 years since this Somerset boy arrived in London with his three A levels, 100 words per minute shorthand, vast collection of Elton John records and a dream. But I could never have dreamt that one day I’d make it to the actual BBC, and in a huge general election year too.
Trump posts a new ad foreshadowing a second Trump term that says he will create a “UNIFIED REICH,” echoing Nazi Germany
https://x.com/BidenHQ/status/1792729818443727313
https://x.com/BidenHQ/status/1792729818443727313
This is the actual video. The 'Unified Reich' graphic is faint, but it's certainly there.
https://x.com/waltywang/status/1792730656465957078
This is normal for all government IT projects that I know of.
Sure, a few of the project team are better resourced as specialist external consultants, but shall we say on my programme of about 100 at least 50 ought to be staff not contractors? That's £11m a year wasted right there, simply by not paying market rates. In one small programme, in one small cog of the national machine. In an organisation where there is no money to do anything not viewed as critical, and needs massive investment just to catch up.
Is this a problem because it's IT in London, or more widespread?
🌹 Labour 43% (-)
🌳Conservatives 27% (+1)
🔶Lib Dem 9% (-1)
🟣Reform UK 11% (-)
💚Greens 6% (+1)
N: 2308
17-19/5