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What’s this going to do to Middle Eastern and domestic affairs? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited June 8 in General
What’s this going to do to Middle Eastern and domestic affairs? – politicalbetting.com

Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi has been killed in a helicopter crash in which the Foreign Minister and several other people died.Chief International correspondent Lyse Doucet had more details on #BBCBreakfasthttps://t.co/0EQgGR4Va6 pic.twitter.com/yQNnunUESC

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Like Benjamin Netanyahu the Iranian President has a long history of supporting Hamas and I wonder if that will change with a new President, I suspect not as the Supreme Leader is still calling ths shots

    Mischievous, Mr Eagles, but profoundly true.

    The more pertinent point, however, is that Khamanei is old - older than Biden - and very frail. Raisi was a close friend and ally and rumoured to be his chosen successor. What effect might this have on him? If it kills him, then that really will destabilise the ME.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    ydoethur said:

    Like Benjamin Netanyahu the Iranian President has a long history of supporting Hamas and I wonder if that will change with a new President, I suspect not as the Supreme Leader is still calling ths shots

    Mischievous, Mr Eagles, but profoundly true.

    The more pertinent point, however, is that Khamanei is old - older than Biden - and very frail. Raisi was a close friend and ally and rumoured to be his chosen successor. What effect might this have on him? If it kills him, then that really will destabilise the ME.

    Mischievous? Me? With my reputation?
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    Nigelb said:



    A party which is little more than an over sixties lobby group is not fit for government.

    Fair.

    Although I think the tory voter crossover age is now 70+.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:



    A party which is little more than an over sixties lobby group is not fit for government.

    Fair.

    Although I think the tory voter crossover age is now 70+.
    Probably works for the Iranian government too!
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    edited May 20
    ydoethur said:

    Like Benjamin Netanyahu the Iranian President has a long history of supporting Hamas and I wonder if that will change with a new President, I suspect not as the Supreme Leader is still calling ths shots

    Mischievous, Mr Eagles, but profoundly true.

    The more pertinent point, however, is that Khamanei is old - older than Biden - and very frail. Raisi was a close friend and ally and rumoured to be his chosen successor. What effect might this have on him? If it kills him, then that really will destabilise the ME.

    It's suggested that he might anoint his son. How much the upcoming vote for the new president will be a matter if actual democratic choice (certainly not 100%), is an interesting question.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    On topic... I don't think it will have any effect on UK politics and limited repercussions in the ME.

    The Iranian revolution is too embedded in their version of the deep state to be upended by a lack of Blue Loctite on a Bell 212.

    I flew the 412 (4 rotor version of the 212) at Shawbury and it was a great to pole around - a torque monster with good avionics and excellent visibility.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    Unless a nuclear bomb is detonated over London it will do nothing to the UK election. Tories searching for a ‘black swan’ are in desperate measures.

    Foreign policy rarely affects a UK General Election unless it’s Brexit which was domestic politics writ large, or the Falklands which was also about British sovereignty.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    The acting president is also a member (appointed by the Supreme Leader) of the interestingly named Expediency Discernment Council of the System.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Like Benjamin Netanyahu the Iranian President has a long history of supporting Hamas and I wonder if that will change with a new President, I suspect not as the Supreme Leader is still calling ths shots

    Mischievous, Mr Eagles, but profoundly true.

    The more pertinent point, however, is that Khamanei is old - older than Biden - and very frail. Raisi was a close friend and ally and rumoured to be his chosen successor. What effect might this have on him? If it kills him, then that really will destabilise the ME.

    It's suggested that he might anoint his son. How much the upcoming vote for the new president will be a matter if actual democratic choice (certainly not 100%), is an interesting question.
    We need some polling. Perhaps Matt Goodwin’s lot could do some and report back.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    edited May 20
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:



    A party which is little more than an over sixties lobby group is not fit for government.

    Fair.

    Although I think the tory voter crossover age is now 70+.
    Probably works for the Iranian government too!
    The acting president is a mere 69.

    Quite a few of the upcoming leaders were (as with the recently pancaked president) students at the time of the revolution.
    So relatively young, and ideologically extreme.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited May 20
    Let’s be frank. The UK election is now almost a foregone conclusion and therefore we are in a tedious waiting room. Watch out for the MSM telling us otherwise. They need to feel important. Like politicians.

    The interest for this site revolves around value betting, some of which may need to be esoteric. Over the next few months I’m looking for quirky but brilliant tips please!

    December 12th. Maverick Malcolm may have dismissed it out of hand but it is the most plausible date I’ve yet heard mentioned. The 5th anniversary of the last one, and the final date before it becomes ridiculous.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072

    ydoethur said:

    Like Benjamin Netanyahu the Iranian President has a long history of supporting Hamas and I wonder if that will change with a new President, I suspect not as the Supreme Leader is still calling ths shots

    Mischievous, Mr Eagles, but profoundly true.

    The more pertinent point, however, is that Khamanei is old - older than Biden - and very frail. Raisi was a close friend and ally and rumoured to be his chosen successor. What effect might this have on him? If it kills him, then that really will destabilise the ME.

    Mischievous? Me? With my reputation?
    I dare you to run a thread about those 115 charges ...
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460

    Congratulations to Man City for becoming the first English side to win four top flight titles in a row.

    In sporting achievemnts it is up there with Lance Armstrong winning seven Tour de France titles in a row.

    I don't put an asterix next to Lance's TdFs because all GC contenders are on the hot sauce. It's just that most of them don't have a Floyd Landis in their orbit who would take the stand.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905

    Congratulations to Man City for becoming the first English side to win four top flight titles in a row.

    In sporting achievemnts it is up there with Lance Armstrong winning seven Tour de France titles in a row.

    In his case it was drugs rather than money, want it ?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Nigelb said:

    Congratulations to Man City for becoming the first English side to win four top flight titles in a row.

    In sporting achievemnts it is up there with Lance Armstrong winning seven Tour de France titles in a row.

    In his case it was drugs rather than money, want it ?
    Financial doping is still doping.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072

    Congratulations to Man City for becoming the first English side to win four top flight titles in a row.

    In sporting achievemnts it is up there with Lance Armstrong winning seven Tour de France titles in a row.

    :D

    Haha!! Excellent.

    Go on, give us a thread. I dare you.
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    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Heathener said:

    Let’s be frank. The UK election is now almost a foregone conclusion and therefore we are in a tedious waiting room. Watch out for the MSM telling us otherwise. They need to feel important. Like politicians.

    The interest for this site revolves around value betting, some of which may need to be esoteric. Over the next few months I’m looking for quirky but brilliant tips please!

    December 12th. Maverick Malcolm may have dismissed it out of hand but it is the most plausible date I’ve yet heard mentioned.

    I tipped and backed December at 12, now in to 5.6. January remains [a] value [loser] at 19. It will be Nov which is 1.9
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Perhaps the black swan the Tories hope for is that people become afraid as Sunak wants. Frightened people don't take risks, and it's a risky world.

    No, hang on a second, our ability to defend ourselves is pretty poor due to a decade and a half of defence cuts. Tories making large about how much they will spend on defence in a few years - whats the number now lads?

    A dangerous world, armed forces dangerously starved of money by successive Tory PMs, so we should vote Tory for protection?

    Naaah. This plays in reverse. I totally get that politicians need to spin a line and push a narrative. But its usually helpful to do so from a position of the facts. Is this real or is this spin? The problem for the Tories is that they have lost all grasp on reality, come up with a spin line and think its real.

    People who can't tell the difference between simulation and reality who are in charge of our nuclear missiles...
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    An acquaintance's office is closed for the week as loads of people have come down with Covid.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    Heathener said:

    Let’s be frank. The UK election is now almost a foregone conclusion and therefore we are in a tedious waiting room. Watch out for the MSM telling us otherwise. They need to feel important. Like politicians.

    The interest for this site revolves around value betting, some of which may need to be esoteric. Over the next few months I’m looking for quirky but brilliant tips please!

    December 12th. Maverick Malcolm may have dismissed it out of hand but it is the most plausible date I’ve yet heard mentioned.

    I've long had December 12th pencilled in as a likely date, but one aspect that counts against it is that it requires calling the election right at the end of October or the beginning of November - exactly when the US election is reaching is climax.

    You might think that this shouldn't influence the British election timetable at all, but the BBC will certainly be planning to have lots of journalists covering the US election, and our Prime Minister has a certain US focus.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    Heathener said:


    The interest for this site revolves around value betting, some of which may need to be esoteric. Over the next few months I’m looking for quirky but brilliant tips please!

    Jorge Martin is value at 1.8 to win the MotoGP WC. He just missed out last year and is on the best bike (Ducati GP24) and is out of contract at the end of the season wanting a factory ride. He is super fucking motivated.

    You are locking your money up until probably the Japan/Australia/Thailand races in October where the championship is traditionally won.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    Dura_Ace said:

    On topic... I don't think it will have any effect on UK politics and limited repercussions in the ME.

    The Iranian revolution is too embedded in their version of the deep state to be upended by a lack of Blue Loctite on a Bell 212.

    I flew the 412 (4 rotor version of the 212) at Shawbury and it was a great to pole around - a torque monster with good avionics and excellent visibility.

    In order to make use of that excellent visibility, one needs either a CAVOK day or decent IFR tech. One might reasonably conclude that both were missing last night.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    Dura_Ace said:

    Heathener said:


    The interest for this site revolves around value betting, some of which may need to be esoteric. Over the next few months I’m looking for quirky but brilliant tips please!

    Jorge Martin is value at 1.8 to win the MotoGP WC. He just missed out last year and is on the best bike (Ducati GP24) and is out of contract at the end of the season wanting a factory ride. He is super fucking motivated.

    You are locking your money up until probably the Japan/Australia/Thailand races in October where the championship is traditionally won.
    Brilliant: thank you +1
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    On the university funding row, regardless of whether we have some dubious “universities” or not it would be politically bad if the Tories let them go bust.

    Surely the Tories get this? Totemic of a broken country? One where they have been in government breaking it?

    Bernard Ingham on Tony Benn applies here(*).

    Once you add those who think that there are too many universities full stop and those who want to cut immigration, whatever the consequences, it's a lot of Today's Conservative Party.

    (*)For those who don't know the anecdote, Ingham was Benn's press secretary, and was asked why the minister had said something. His response was that the minister had said whatever it was because he was stark, staring mad.
    Universities just need to live within their means. We dont bail out businesses who cant, so why bail out universities ?
    Incidentally, your second sentence - we bailed out the banks...
    Yes and we shouldnt have, that was a bad decision. Arent we meant to be learning the lessons ? Or some other mindless platitude.
    Looool, if we hadn't bailed the banks out it would have been 1929 all over again. By the time that washed out we could have ended up with a communist or a fascist revolution. Bailing out the banks was the only rational thing to do. The Brown and Cameron governments saved this country from the kind of future that only you or Jeremy Corbyn would have enjoyed.

    Edit to add: you're such a fucking moron
    Careful now, you'll set off a rousing chorus of Croppies Lie Down.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    Britain is a museum with a country attached.

    "The UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, has ordered an urgent review after it emerged there is a shortage of planes for a mass parachute drop to mark the 80th anniversary of D-day."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/grant-shapps-orders-review-into-plane-shortage-before-80th-d-day-anniversary

    There's a war on in Europe, but the British defence secretary has his tabloid-pleasing priorities straight.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    edited May 20

    Britain is a museum with a country attached.

    "The UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, has ordered an urgent review after it emerged there is a shortage of planes for a mass parachute drop to mark the 80th anniversary of D-day."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/grant-shapps-orders-review-into-plane-shortage-before-80th-d-day-anniversary

    There's a war on in Europe, but the British defence secretary has his tabloid-pleasing priorities straight.

    They still have some way to go if they want to beat the the embarrassment of the Russians, who had no aircraft and a single old museum piece T-34 tank for their annual Red Square parade in front of Putin a couple of weeks ago. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-65528705

    They couldn’t even pull off their usual trick of having a small number of aircraft and tanks go around the block five times, to give the impression of having a lot more equipment than they actually do.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    edited May 20
    Dura_Ace said:

    On topic... I don't think it will have any effect on UK politics and limited repercussions in the ME.

    The Iranian revolution is too embedded in their version of the deep state to be upended by a lack of Blue Loctite on a Bell 212.

    I flew the 412 (4 rotor version of the 212) at Shawbury and it was a great to pole around - a torque monster with good avionics and excellent visibility.

    Where do the Iranians source spare parts these days ?
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677

    Britain is a museum with a country attached.

    "The UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, has ordered an urgent review after it emerged there is a shortage of planes for a mass parachute drop to mark the 80th anniversary of D-day."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/grant-shapps-orders-review-into-plane-shortage-before-80th-d-day-anniversary

    There's a war on in Europe, but the British defence secretary has his tabloid-pleasing priorities straight.

    And by the sound of it, not a very good museum either.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707

    Britain is a museum with a country attached.

    "The UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, has ordered an urgent review after it emerged there is a shortage of planes for a mass parachute drop to mark the 80th anniversary of D-day."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/grant-shapps-orders-review-into-plane-shortage-before-80th-d-day-anniversary

    There's a war on in Europe, but the British defence secretary has his tabloid-pleasing priorities straight.

    What's the point? The Raff still has a Dakota anyway. Much better and more evocative. Get two or three of the warbirds community ones to join in. IIRC the French have one at Caen already.

    https://www.raf.mod.uk/aircraft/dakota/
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @MaxKendix

    🚨Exc: Migrants sent to Rwanda face being flown out to another country if the medical care they need isn't available there

    British taxpayer will cover the costs of treatment abroad in Belgium, India, Turkey, or one of seven east African countries, under contract signed last week
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681

    Congratulations to Man City for becoming the first English side to win four top flight titles in a row.

    In sporting achievements it is up there with Lance Armstrong winning seven Tour de France titles in a row.

    Easy when you can just buy it. They ahve been cheating for years and getting away with it due to the money they can splash.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139

    Nigelb said:

    Congratulations to Man City for becoming the first English side to win four top flight titles in a row.

    In sporting achievemnts it is up there with Lance Armstrong winning seven Tour de France titles in a row.

    In his case it was drugs rather than money, want it ?
    Financial doping is still doping.
    Conflicted about this. On the one hand this is one of the greatest football teams ever assembled, and the only PL side I'd actually pay money to watch (KdB especially). On the other hand, there's the murky stuff behind how they were assembled, and so I'd have no objection to their being stripped of their assets and relegated to the National League. KdB would then be welcome to come on a free to Middlesbrough.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    Britain is a museum with a country attached.

    "The UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, has ordered an urgent review after it emerged there is a shortage of planes for a mass parachute drop to mark the 80th anniversary of D-day."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/grant-shapps-orders-review-into-plane-shortage-before-80th-d-day-anniversary

    There's a war on in Europe, but the British defence secretary has his tabloid-pleasing priorities straight.

    Perhaps Shapps can bring aircraft and equipment back from Ukraine to make the 80th anniversary of D-day a fantastic and memorable event.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460

    Britain is a museum with a country attached.

    "The UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, has ordered an urgent review after it emerged there is a shortage of planes for a mass parachute drop to mark the 80th anniversary of D-day."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/grant-shapps-orders-review-into-plane-shortage-before-80th-d-day-anniversary

    There's a war on in Europe, but the British defence secretary has his tabloid-pleasing priorities straight.

    Two War Christmases this year! How lucky we are.

    Can somebody explain why there is apparently a hard minima on the number of parachuting war criminals that are appropriate for a D-Day commemoration? They can get 100+ in a single A400M. Pity the licensed victuallers of Normandie on that evening.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited May 20
    Good morning everyone.

    The man who attempted to kidnap Nancy Pelosi, and beat her husband over the head with a hammer, has been sentenced to 30 and 20 years in prison, to run concurrently.

    That's the Federal Offences. State Charges still to be tried.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-69028127
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,770
    malcolmg said:

    Congratulations to Man City for becoming the first English side to win four top flight titles in a row.

    In sporting achievements it is up there with Lance Armstrong winning seven Tour de France titles in a row.

    Easy when you can just buy it. They ahve been cheating for years and getting away with it due to the money they can splash.
    I tink that was what TSE was referring to with his Lance Armstrong comparison. He is in a very puckish mood this morning
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    Britain is a museum with a country attached.

    "The UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, has ordered an urgent review after it emerged there is a shortage of planes for a mass parachute drop to mark the 80th anniversary of D-day."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/grant-shapps-orders-review-into-plane-shortage-before-80th-d-day-anniversary

    There's a war on in Europe, but the British defence secretary has his tabloid-pleasing priorities straight.

    And by the sound of it, not a very good museum either.
    One that nobody visits...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-68779540
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    They are going to try to move the MV Dali today in Baltimore, after they blew off part of the Baltimore bridge that it knocked down.

    I'd give a link to one of the livestreams, but it's going to be a slow process...
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    On topic... I don't think it will have any effect on UK politics and limited repercussions in the ME.

    The Iranian revolution is too embedded in their version of the deep state to be upended by a lack of Blue Loctite on a Bell 212.

    I flew the 412 (4 rotor version of the 212) at Shawbury and it was a great to pole around - a torque monster with good avionics and excellent visibility.

    Where do the Iranians source spare parts these days ?
    Florida via Malaysia and Thailand. Same as Russia.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    The man who attempted to kidnap Nancy Pelosi, and beat her husband over the head with a hammer, has been sentenced to 30 and 20 years in prison, to run concurrently.

    That's the Federal Offences. State Charges still to be tried.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-69028127

    Can Greg Abbott pardon him?
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,820

    Britain is a museum with a country attached.

    "The UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, has ordered an urgent review after it emerged there is a shortage of planes for a mass parachute drop to mark the 80th anniversary of D-day."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/grant-shapps-orders-review-into-plane-shortage-before-80th-d-day-anniversary

    There's a war on in Europe, but the British defence secretary has his tabloid-pleasing priorities straight.

    While I agree its a waste of time and money I'm not sure who this is supposed to be impressing,

    Perhaps what's left alive of the Express readership, perhaps its the military itself.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    And in other news; it appears that big stronk Russia may be keeping some of its submarines semi-submerged at port, with only the top of the sail above the water's surface. I think this is meant to make them less vulnerable to Ukrainian drone strikes; I'd argue it's doing part of the job for the Ukrainians. ;)

    (I'd guess it makes f'all difference to the submarines for most of the time to be in that position.)
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    On topic... I don't think it will have any effect on UK politics and limited repercussions in the ME.

    The Iranian revolution is too embedded in their version of the deep state to be upended by a lack of Blue Loctite on a Bell 212.

    I flew the 412 (4 rotor version of the 212) at Shawbury and it was a great to pole around - a torque monster with good avionics and excellent visibility.

    Where do the Iranians source spare parts these days ?
    Florida via Malaysia and Thailand. Same as Russia.
    So plenty of cracks for duff counterfeits to find their way in ?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    The man who attempted to kidnap Nancy Pelosi, and beat her husband over the head with a hammer, has been sentenced to 30 and 20 years in prison, to run concurrently.

    That's the Federal Offences. State Charges still to be tried.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-69028127

    Can Greg Abbott pardon him?
    I think even he might struggle for jurisdiction (unless he's running for president).
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    On topic... I don't think it will have any effect on UK politics and limited repercussions in the ME.

    The Iranian revolution is too embedded in their version of the deep state to be upended by a lack of Blue Loctite on a Bell 212.

    I flew the 412 (4 rotor version of the 212) at Shawbury and it was a great to pole around - a torque monster with good avionics and excellent visibility.

    Where do the Iranians source spare parts these days ?
    Florida via Malaysia and Thailand. Same as Russia.
    AIUI mostly indigenously made, and sometimes poorly. Depending on the aircraft type:
    https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/495928/Iran-self-sufficient-in-producing-passenger-plane-spare-parts

    And in small amounts:
    "More Than Half Of Iran's Airliners Grounded For Lack Of Parts"
    https://www.iranintl.com/en/20211207267723
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    edited May 20

    Britain is a museum with a country attached.

    "The UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, has ordered an urgent review after it emerged there is a shortage of planes for a mass parachute drop to mark the 80th anniversary of D-day."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/grant-shapps-orders-review-into-plane-shortage-before-80th-d-day-anniversary

    There's a war on in Europe, but the British defence secretary has his tabloid-pleasing priorities straight.

    While I agree its a waste of time and money I'm not sure who this is supposed to be impressing,

    Perhaps what's left alive of the Express readership, perhaps its the military itself.
    There's also a non-trivial risk of morbidity on any para jump, or there used to be anyway. I'm reminded of Alan Judd's novel 'A Breed of Heroes' which ends in just such a jump and at least one broken leg.

    Plus are all our Paras current on their jump quals, I wonder? Which would mean practices and training ...
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Scott_xP said:

    @MaxKendix

    🚨Exc: Migrants sent to Rwanda face being flown out to another country if the medical care they need isn't available there

    British taxpayer will cover the costs of treatment abroad in Belgium, India, Turkey, or one of seven east African countries, under contract signed last week

    Whereas if they stayed here they'd be on an 18 month nhs waiting list like everyone else.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    The Iranian regime is wobbly at best, but it’s difficult to say whether this or any other event will be the catalyst to start the fall. What it does do is trigger elections, and elections can be a focal point for discontent, so there is an immediate risk to the regime there (though the process will be tightly controlled).

    As has already been pointed out perhaps the biggest risk for the regime will be if this leads to a succession crisis for Khamenei, and he dies soon without it being resolved.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    On topic... I don't think it will have any effect on UK politics and limited repercussions in the ME.

    The Iranian revolution is too embedded in their version of the deep state to be upended by a lack of Blue Loctite on a Bell 212.

    I flew the 412 (4 rotor version of the 212) at Shawbury and it was a great to pole around - a torque monster with good avionics and excellent visibility.

    Where do the Iranians source spare parts these days ?
    Florida via Malaysia and Thailand. Same as Russia.
    So plenty of cracks for duff counterfeits to find their way in ?
    They have enough trouble keeping fake aircraft parts out of documented Western supply chains, let alone those that end up in Iran or Russia via somewhat unofficial channels in Asia or Africa.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/engine-maker-cfm-says-up-96-planes-affected-by-fake-parts-probe-2023-09-20/

    Anything made in Iran is going to be very much counterfeit and backwards-engineered, although they do have good engineering capability developed to avoid sanctions.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    edited May 20
    Rarely for me, a bit of praise for the BBC last night. They were very good at not rushing to conclusions on the Iranian crash: a lot of other news sources I saw were reporting statements from Iranian state-influenced media (such as that contact had/had not been made with the helicopter) without many caveats about the reliability of that info. I thought the BBC were much more measured and added much more significant disclaimers.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Britain is a museum with a country attached.

    "The UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, has ordered an urgent review after it emerged there is a shortage of planes for a mass parachute drop to mark the 80th anniversary of D-day."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/grant-shapps-orders-review-into-plane-shortage-before-80th-d-day-anniversary

    There's a war on in Europe, but the British defence secretary has his tabloid-pleasing priorities straight.

    While I agree its a waste of time and money I'm not sure who this is supposed to be impressing,

    Perhaps what's left alive of the Express readership, perhaps its the military itself.
    There's also a non-trivial risk of morbidity on any para jump, or there used to be anyway. I'm reminded of Alan Judd's novel 'A Breed of Heroes' which ends in just such a jump and at least one broken leg.

    Plus are all our Paras current on their jump quals, I wonder? Which would mean practices and training ...
    I applied to do P-Company and was knocked back on grounds of age (I was 34) with the comment, "You'll fucking cripple yourself you stupid fucking bastard."

    You can see what's going behind the scenes at the MoD with this carefully confected outrage over the D-Day jump. The Para Reg, even more than most units, is always in a desperate search for relevancy because they have not jumped on an actual operation since Suez nearly 70 years ago. So if they don't regularly do this type of D-Day bollocks en masse then questions might start to be asked what the actual fucking point of them is.
    The point of them is to go on ops and fuck the environment so much that the next unit that rotates in lands in a world of shit.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422
    On topic - I think the revenue will try and pull together. They are really not popular with a big chunk of the younger generation. If “significant change” happens, they face our old friend Existential Threat.

    So they will try very hard to keep it together.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Britain is a museum with a country attached.

    "The UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, has ordered an urgent review after it emerged there is a shortage of planes for a mass parachute drop to mark the 80th anniversary of D-day."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/grant-shapps-orders-review-into-plane-shortage-before-80th-d-day-anniversary

    There's a war on in Europe, but the British defence secretary has his tabloid-pleasing priorities straight.

    While I agree its a waste of time and money I'm not sure who this is supposed to be impressing,

    Perhaps what's left alive of the Express readership, perhaps its the military itself.
    There's also a non-trivial risk of morbidity on any para jump, or there used to be anyway. I'm reminded of Alan Judd's novel 'A Breed of Heroes' which ends in just such a jump and at least one broken leg.

    Plus are all our Paras current on their jump quals, I wonder? Which would mean practices and training ...
    I applied to do P-Company and was knocked back on grounds of age (I was 34) with the comment, "You'll fucking cripple yourself you stupid fucking bastard."

    You can see what's going behind the scenes at the MoD with this carefully confected outrage over the D-Day jump. The Para Reg, even more than most units, is always in a desperate search for relevancy because they have not jumped on an actual operation since Suez nearly 70 years ago. So if they don't regularly do this type of D-Day bollocks en masse then questions might start to be asked what the actual fucking point of them is.
    The point of them is to go on ops and fuck the environment so much that the next unit that rotates in lands in a world of shit.
    My memory of Paras from my younger days, was that the whole point of them was fighting each other in the bars of Aldershot and Camberley.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    On topic no.

    No one can name or gives a f&&k about which mullah is in charge in Eye-Ran. If petrol prices go up competing claims of it's all the Cons fault and not our fault guv it's an exogenous shock, innit, will cancel each other out.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    It is Israel tho, isn’t it?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    Scott_xP said:

    @MaxKendix

    🚨Exc: Migrants sent to Rwanda face being flown out to another country if the medical care they need isn't available there

    British taxpayer will cover the costs of treatment abroad in Belgium, India, Turkey, or one of seven east African countries, under contract signed last week

    Whereas if they stayed here they'd be on an 18 month nhs waiting list like everyone else.
    Let me see if I have this right

    Arrive in the UK. Three grand to fly to Rwanda.

    Fly to Belgium for treatment.

    Hop a boat back across the channel...

    Can't see any problems with that. No sir.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    Leon said:

    It is Israel tho, isn’t it?

    Seems unlikely.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @thetimes

    An Israeli official has told Reuters that Israel was not involved in the death of the Iranian president. The source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said “it wasn’t us”
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,905
    Karakurt class corvette reported sunk.
    https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792243495211503895
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @MaxKendix

    🚨Exc: Migrants sent to Rwanda face being flown out to another country if the medical care they need isn't available there

    British taxpayer will cover the costs of treatment abroad in Belgium, India, Turkey, or one of seven east African countries, under contract signed last week

    Whereas if they stayed here they'd be on an 18 month nhs waiting list like everyone else.
    Let me see if I have this right

    Arrive in the UK. Three grand to fly to Rwanda.

    Fly to Belgium for treatment.

    Hop a boat back across the channel...

    Can't see any problems with that. No sir.
    Why stop with Belgium? Surely we need to spend as much money as possible in this scheme to ensure these so-called “Asylum Seekers” stop coming here to cost us money.

    Pay Rwanda half a billion to accept 30 of them, fly them to Belgium for private health care then somewhere to recuperate - the Maldives perhaps - before returning to Rwanda in time for their next trip away. Pay whatever it takes to ensure we don’t pay a penny.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    ANYWAY, Buongiorno

    image
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    First day properly out and about since that trip to A&E - if this "100 Day Cough" isn't another strain of Covid I'll eat my hat... But, am alive - unlike the Iranian PM.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Morning all.
    This month's Ipsos is out, headline figures are
    Lab 41 (-3)
    Con 20 (+1)
    LD 11 (+3)
    Green 11 (!) (+2)
    Ref 9 (-4)
    Others 8 (+2)
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    edited May 20
    Nigelb said:

    Karakurt class corvette reported sunk.
    https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792243495211503895

    Good good. Looks like the ATACMS have arrived! A brand new ship as well, what a shame.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157
    Leon said:

    It is Israel tho, isn’t it?

    Here we go folks
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Britain is a museum with a country attached.

    "The UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, has ordered an urgent review after it emerged there is a shortage of planes for a mass parachute drop to mark the 80th anniversary of D-day."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/grant-shapps-orders-review-into-plane-shortage-before-80th-d-day-anniversary

    There's a war on in Europe, but the British defence secretary has his tabloid-pleasing priorities straight.

    While I agree its a waste of time and money I'm not sure who this is supposed to be impressing,

    Perhaps what's left alive of the Express readership, perhaps its the military itself.
    There's also a non-trivial risk of morbidity on any para jump, or there used to be anyway. I'm reminded of Alan Judd's novel 'A Breed of Heroes' which ends in just such a jump and at least one broken leg.

    Plus are all our Paras current on their jump quals, I wonder? Which would mean practices and training ...
    I applied to do P-Company and was knocked back on grounds of age (I was 34) with the comment, "You'll fucking cripple yourself you stupid fucking bastard."

    You can see what's going behind the scenes at the MoD with this carefully confected outrage over the D-Day jump. The Para Reg, even more than most units, is always in a desperate search for relevancy because they have not jumped on an actual operation since Suez nearly 70 years ago. So if they don't regularly do this type of D-Day bollocks en masse then questions might start to be asked what the actual fucking point of them is.
    We found out what they are for or at least good at in 1972

    Can I irrelevantly brag that I skydived from 10000 feet over Mo'orea a couple of months back. The island is rubbish full of US honeymooners but the lagoon looks fab from up there
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Karakurt class corvette reported sunk.
    https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792243495211503895

    Good good. Looks like the ATACMS have arrived! A brand new ship as well, what a shame.
    It looks like they sunk, or damaged, two ships at the weekend. The bingo card is slowly being filled...
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157
    I think a big solar storm and/or bird flu destroys UK pastoral farming are the ones to watch.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    148grss said:

    First day properly out and about since that trip to A&E - if this "100 Day Cough" isn't another strain of Covid I'll eat my hat... But, am alive - unlike the Iranian PM.

    Good to hear. The FT is reporting that there’s a nasty new strain of Covid floating about. So maybe you have that?

    Sympathies
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146

    Morning all.
    This month's Ipsos is out, headline figures are
    Lab 41 (-3)
    Con 20 (+1)
    LD 11 (+3)
    Green 11 (!) (+2)
    Ref 9 (-4)
    Others 8 (+2)

    That looks like a significant move to LLG.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    Morning all.
    This month's Ipsos is out, headline figures are
    Lab 41 (-3)
    Con 20 (+1)
    LD 11 (+3)
    Green 11 (!) (+2)
    Ref 9 (-4)
    Others 8 (+2)

    That looks like a significant move to LLG.
    +2 LLG
    -3 RefCon
    +2 Nats and ??
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    It is Israel tho, isn’t it?

    Here we go folks
    I’m not saying it IS Israel. I’m merely asking the question, in a mildly provocative way

    Given that Iran recently rained down a thousand missiles on Israel, it’s not stretching credulity to claim that the Israelis might have taken stealthy revenge

    Doing it against a chopper in the fog and the rain gives them plausible deniability as well. So it’s doubly clever. If it’s them. Which it might not be. But it might be. Etc etc etc
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Karakurt class corvette reported sunk.
    https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792243495211503895

    Good good. Looks like the ATACMS have arrived! A brand new ship as well, what a shame.
    It looks like they sunk, or damaged, two ships at the weekend. The bingo card is slowly being filled...
    They’re still taking out tanks with small drones as well. Doesn’t take much explosive to set them off.

    https://x.com/alfaiomi/status/1792122808668922144?s=12
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    Morning all.
    This month's Ipsos is out, headline figures are
    Lab 41 (-3)
    Con 20 (+1)
    LD 11 (+3)
    Green 11 (!) (+2)
    Ref 9 (-4)
    Others 8 (+2)

    That looks like a significant move to LLG.
    +2 LLG
    -3 RefCon
    +2 Nats and ??
    Although with Con not benefitting appreciably from the Reform drop off in any polling we can perhaps drop the rather daft association of Reform and Con as a 'unit'
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    edited May 20

    Morning all.
    This month's Ipsos is out, headline figures are
    Lab 41 (-3)
    Con 20 (+1)
    LD 11 (+3)
    Green 11 (!) (+2)
    Ref 9 (-4)
    Others 8 (+2)

    That Others score is pretty high.

    Interesting that we have another decline in ReformUK, but with the Tories only picking up a small fraction.

    If we present this poll with changes on the Ipsos for January then the changes are huge.
    LAB 41 (-8)
    CON 20 (-7)
    LDM 11 (+4)
    GRN 11 (+4)
    RFM 9 (+5)
    OTH 8 (+3)
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    The man who attempted to kidnap Nancy Pelosi, and beat her husband over the head with a hammer, has been sentenced to 30 and 20 years in prison, to run concurrently.

    That's the Federal Offences. State Charges still to be tried.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-69028127

    Can Greg Abbott pardon him?
    It was clearly a politically motivated prosecution, so unquestionably yes.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,733
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Like Benjamin Netanyahu the Iranian President has a long history of supporting Hamas and I wonder if that will change with a new President, I suspect not as the Supreme Leader is still calling ths shots

    Mischievous, Mr Eagles, but profoundly true.

    The more pertinent point, however, is that Khamanei is old - older than Biden - and very frail. Raisi was a close friend and ally and rumoured to be his chosen successor. What effect might this have on him? If it kills him, then that really will destabilise the ME.

    It's suggested that he might anoint his son. How much the upcoming vote for the new president will be a matter if actual democratic choice (certainly not 100%), is an interesting question.
    We need some polling. Perhaps Matt Goodwin’s lot could do some and report back.
    The new thread Goodwinned at 0806hrs. Surely a PB record!
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422

    Britain is a museum with a country attached.

    "The UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, has ordered an urgent review after it emerged there is a shortage of planes for a mass parachute drop to mark the 80th anniversary of D-day."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/19/grant-shapps-orders-review-into-plane-shortage-before-80th-d-day-anniversary

    There's a war on in Europe, but the British defence secretary has his tabloid-pleasing priorities straight.

    Perhaps Shapps can bring aircraft and equipment back from Ukraine to make the 80th anniversary of D-day a fantastic and memorable event.
    No transport aircraft have been supplied to Ukraine.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    It is Israel tho, isn’t it?

    Here we go folks
    I’m not saying it IS Israel. I’m merely asking the question, in a mildly provocative way

    Given that Iran recently rained down a thousand missiles on Israel, it’s not stretching credulity to claim that the Israelis might have taken stealthy revenge

    Doing it against a chopper in the fog and the rain gives them plausible deniability as well. So it’s doubly clever. If it’s them. Which it might not be. But it might be. Etc etc etc
    Clowns In Amerigo
    Kate Mossad
    Inside Job
    Whatever NKVD go by now
    A big mountain getting in the way
    Pilot being a massive spanner

    Take your pick or spin the wheel
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    Morning all.
    This month's Ipsos is out, headline figures are
    Lab 41 (-3)
    Con 20 (+1)
    LD 11 (+3)
    Green 11 (!) (+2)
    Ref 9 (-4)
    Others 8 (+2)

    Broken, sleazy Labour and Reform on the slide!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Leon said:

    ANYWAY, Buongiorno

    image

    Non-blurry!
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    Morning all.
    This month's Ipsos is out, headline figures are
    Lab 41 (-3)
    Con 20 (+1)
    LD 11 (+3)
    Green 11 (!) (+2)
    Ref 9 (-4)
    Others 8 (+2)

    That Others score is pretty high.

    Interesting that we have another decline in ReformUK, but with the Tories only picking up a small fraction.

    If we present this poll with changes on the Ipsos for January then the changes are huge.
    LAB 41 (-8)
    CON 20 (-7)
    LDM 11 (+4)
    GRN 11 (+4)
    RFM 9 (+5)
    OTH 8 (+3)
    Shocker!
    Others is high, tables out later but unless there's been a gigantic SNP surge one assumes WPB are showing or its one of these random UKIP show up out of nowhere efforts
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157

    Morning all.
    This month's Ipsos is out, headline figures are
    Lab 41 (-3)
    Con 20 (+1)
    LD 11 (+3)
    Green 11 (!) (+2)
    Ref 9 (-4)
    Others 8 (+2)

    That Others score is pretty high.

    Interesting that we have another decline in ReformUK, but with the Tories only picking up a small fraction.

    If we present this poll with changes on the Ipsos for January then the changes are huge.
    LAB 41 (-8)
    CON 20 (-7)
    LDM 11 (+4)
    GRN 11 (+4)
    RFM 9 (+5)
    OTH 8 (+3)
    The Labour vote could be extraordinarily efficient at the GE.

    Greens building up support is safe Labour seats, the Lib Dems smashing the Tories in the blue wall, while Labour win all the marginals in the suburbs and towns (and in Scotland). They could poll less than 40 and still win a landslide.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,455

    An acquaintance's office is closed for the week as loads of people have come down with Covid.

    How did they know? Seriously - is anyone testing now (aside of at hospitals?)
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Karakurt class corvette reported sunk.
    https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792243495211503895

    Good good. Looks like the ATACMS have arrived! A brand new ship as well, what a shame.
    It looks like they sunk, or damaged, two ships at the weekend. The bingo card is slowly being filled...
    In the comments someone points out that the name of the minesweeper that was talked about as sunk is the same name as the class of ship of this corvette. So probably one ship, some confusion.

    This ship is capable of launching the fancy new fast zircon missile that caused such excitement when used for the first time a few months ago. Or, at least, it was. Before it was sunk.

    There has to be a chance that Russia will end the war with zero surface ships in the Black Sea Fleet.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    Morning all.
    This month's Ipsos is out, headline figures are
    Lab 41 (-3)
    Con 20 (+1)
    LD 11 (+3)
    Green 11 (!) (+2)
    Ref 9 (-4)
    Others 8 (+2)

    Broken, sleazy Labour and Reform on the slide!
    Greens cheating by using the recent chlorophyll surfeit to climb
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Leon said:

    ANYWAY, Buongiorno

    image

    Non-blurry!
    Indeed. Also that’s my view right now as I eat breakfast in Matera. What a place
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    I doubt it changes much, in Iran the Supreme Leader the Ayatollah runs things rather than the elected President
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Reform not standing in most locals = Change UK not standing in the 2019 locals
    Maybe Redfield tonight will finally record the Reform decline everyone else has found
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    It is Israel tho, isn’t it?

    Here we go folks
    I’m not saying it IS Israel. I’m merely asking the question, in a mildly provocative way

    Given that Iran recently rained down a thousand missiles on Israel, it’s not stretching credulity to claim that the Israelis might have taken stealthy revenge

    Doing it against a chopper in the fog and the rain gives them plausible deniability as well. So it’s doubly clever. If it’s them. Which it might not be. But it might be. Etc etc etc
    Clowns In Amerigo
    Kate Mossad
    Inside Job
    Whatever NKVD go by now
    A big mountain getting in the way
    Pilot being a massive spanner

    Take your pick or spin the wheel
    Cui bono? Its not obvious

    So this feels more like emotional revenge - if it’s not a simple accident - which then points to Israel or the Iranian “resistance”

    For them the act itself is the benefit. A satisfying act of vengeance served cold in the fog
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited May 20

    Morning all.
    This month's Ipsos is out, headline figures are
    Lab 41 (-3)
    Con 20 (+1)
    LD 11 (+3)
    Green 11 (!) (+2)
    Ref 9 (-4)
    Others 8 (+2)

    That looks like a significant move to LLG.
    +2 LLG
    -3 RefCon
    +2 Nats and ??
    Although with Con not benefitting appreciably from the Reform drop off in any polling we can perhaps drop the rather daft association of Reform and Con as a 'unit'
    The Conservatives and LDs and Others are up, Labour are down
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,508
    Some thought provoking articles in Holyrood Magazine this morning about mental health, bullying and abuse of politicians. Not just relevant to Scotland. Worth a read.

    The first two are about politicians’ mental health. https://www.holyrood.com/inside-politics/view,msp-mental-health-ive-got-a-fear-of-being-judged-or-being-criticised-for-not-helping

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,labour-msp-reveals-sleep-deprivation-and-anxiety-struggle

    This one is about bullying. https://www.holyrood.com/editors-column/view,theres-nothing-progressive-about-the-bullying-of-kate-forbes-21926

    The final one is about online abuse of politicians. https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,online-abuse-of-msps-reported-to-police-as-scottish-parliament-bosses-reveal-sobering-extent-of-threats-21940

    It make you wonder why anyone want to become a politician, given the way we treat them.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    edited May 20
    HYUFD said:

    I doubt it changes much, in Iran the Supreme Leader the Ayatollah runs things rather than the elected President

    The 85 year old supreme leaders hand picked successor dying in unclarified circumstances alongside the foreign minister most definitely changes things
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,455
    148grss said:

    First day properly out and about since that trip to A&E - if this "100 Day Cough" isn't another strain of Covid I'll eat my hat... But, am alive - unlike the Iranian PM.

    I'm glad you are back out and about.

    Re covid - remember that there have always been bugs out there and pretty nasty ones too. Not every cough and cold that people get from now to the end of time will be covid.

    And if you recall the testing during the pandemic - how many were actually positive among those who had symptoms? Not that many.

  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146
    Eabhal said:

    Morning all.
    This month's Ipsos is out, headline figures are
    Lab 41 (-3)
    Con 20 (+1)
    LD 11 (+3)
    Green 11 (!) (+2)
    Ref 9 (-4)
    Others 8 (+2)

    That Others score is pretty high.

    Interesting that we have another decline in ReformUK, but with the Tories only picking up a small fraction.

    If we present this poll with changes on the Ipsos for January then the changes are huge.
    LAB 41 (-8)
    CON 20 (-7)
    LDM 11 (+4)
    GRN 11 (+4)
    RFM 9 (+5)
    OTH 8 (+3)
    The Labour vote could be extraordinarily efficient at the GE.

    Greens building up support is safe Labour seats, the Lib Dems smashing the Tories in the blue wall, while Labour win all the marginals in the suburbs and towns (and in Scotland). They could poll less than 40 and still win a landslide.
    Baxtered that gives a Lab Maj of 290, but Tories at 74 seats just about hold on as the Official Opposition.

    This crude measure takes no account, of course, of swingback and tactical voting. Personally I'd be more sure of the latter than the former, but then I've always been a bit of a swingback sceptic. (Or a reluctant Swinger? No, it's too early.)
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330

    An acquaintance's office is closed for the week as loads of people have come down with Covid.

    How did they know? Seriously - is anyone testing now (aside of at hospitals?)
    AIUI their company provides free tests.

    I think it's a fairly simple equation; working from home is doable for their industry, and if someone gets covid they're probably out for a week. If their family gets it as well, possibly longer (looking after kids etc). Even if WfH is slightly less efficient for them, you don't need to get many people getting the lurgy before the disruption gets greater than the WfH inefficiency.

    Oh, and there a couple of people with cancer atm as well. Including one of the bosses...
This discussion has been closed.