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An ill fitting union – politicalbetting.com
An ill fitting union – politicalbetting.com
The defection of Natalie Elphicke looks like a short term mistake by Starmer. I don’t think this is because voters dislike defectors as Opinium note ‘The public lean towards believing that letting in Dan Poulter was the right decision (28% right vs 21% wrong), but tend to think it was the wrong decision to let in Natalie Elphicke (16% right vs 33% wrong)’ although that might be down to the fact Dan Poulter is a doctor and everybody loves a doctor whilst Natalie Elphicke is Labour’s most right wing MP since Oswald Mosley.
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Most people have a thirst *after* righteousness.
I re-evaluating my life choices.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/05/16/donald-trump-criminal-trial-oxford-comma/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/10/donald-trump-court-stormy-daniels-tweet-trial-comma/
It's 'Donald Trump and I.'
Mr. Password, that's possible, but another is that political affiliation is seen as a matter of morality rather than opinion, which means alternative views are not considered valid differences but deemed moral failings to be condemned.
Strategically, it was still the right decision by SKS. Next.
If I were answering the poll question I would treat it as a question about political tactics, not of morality -- if Starmer can smooth over the initial kerfuffle in his party and it gets him useful headlines then taking in Elphicke was the right thing to do; if it upsets his existing MPs and supporters too much without ahifting the needle for wavering swing voters then it was the wrong thing. On balance I'm guessing "right thing" but without a high degree of confidence.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c84z0md30z3o
Spoiler: parents are not ditching their cars. A BBC Bristol journalist from BBC Bristol has spoken to a couple of left-wing parents in urban areas of what is now one of the UK's most left-wing cities who now cycle their kids to school.
It's entirely unrepresentative, it is very much exaggerated and it is absolutely very BBC. Met and preachy to the core.
I think this Natalitie Elphicke thing is a QTWTAIPI - Question to Which The Answer is Probably Irrelevant.
For @MoonRabbit - have we the result of the poll you were trailing?
Aside: Someone needs to come up with a MoonRabbit "After Sinatra" song.
"Moon Rabbit, Guider with a smile ..."
Anyway, the bigger story is not that Elphicke is Labour's most right-wing MP but that Wes Streeting is running her close as he sets out his stall in the Sunday Telegraph. The health service is not to be worshipped; it must work evenings and weekends (doesn't it already?) while reducing its dependence on immigrants; it must raise productivity, harrumphs Streeting as he channels his inner Jeremy Hunt. No more banging pans in support of the NHS.
Speaking of whom, the Chancellor tells the Sunday Times he is ready to generously compensate victims of the tainted blood scandal now that Labour will get the bill.
Jesus Wept.
Fear may not be an edifying strategy for securing power, but the Tories have repeatedly demonstrated that it can be highly effective.
There are at least three big obstacles for the Tories in making this approach work in the current climate. The first is that successful exploitation of the security card depends on the person playing the card being perceived as a strong personality. The next serious handicap for the Tory leader is his government’s poor credentials on security issues. Yet another pitfall of the fear factor is that it tends to be effective only when it goes with the grain of pre-existing worries among the voters. Scare tactics need to have at least some shred of credibility.
For all the effort they will put into it, the Tories are going to struggle to turn Sir Keir into a convincingly frightening bogey figure. When gathered into focus groups by pollsters, voters often have rude things to say about the Labour leader. Scary is rarely one of them. Central to his project has been de-risking perceptions of Labour.
It is demonstrative of Labour’s risk-aversion that “tough spending rules” gets such a prominent place on the card and the consequences of this are felt in everything else the party feels able to say. This flows from a reading of the electorate that interprets the public as too cynical and mistrustful of politicians to buy into grandiose claims. The Labour leader talks in a way which suggests he thinks that what voters most crave at the moment is reassurance and predictability.
The contrast between the Tory and Labour leaders tells us how each hope to frame the choice at the election. Scary Sunak sounds like a man trying to keep everyone awake at night. Soothing Starmer sounds like a man who wants you to be able to sleep a bit more soundly. Most people like their shut-eye.
"Neither" and "don't know" don't really capture that.
Literally tired and emotional at the fact I am off to Anfield to say goodbye to Jürgen Klopp.
I haven't been this emotional since David Cameron announced his retirement in 2016.
These two people are anonymous backbenchers who, in the future, will be winning answers on the final round of pointless.
But I have to say this is a fair cop Casino - DM or Express levels of journalism. I fear the journalist's/editor's biases got the better of them.
Interesting that it's now, and why it has happened. Does it have a "bigger than the Post Office" feel to it? This goes back to the late 1970s and early 1980s.
(Wiki quote)
In September 1983, a leaflet distributed to UK blood donors answered the question as to whether AIDS could be transmitted by blood-products, to be "Almost certainly yes".
In November 1983, Kenneth Clarke, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, told Parliament that "There is no conclusive evidence that AIDS is transmitted by blood products", and the importation of infected products continued. When giving evidence to the Penrose Inquiry, Dr. Mark Winter said that, at the time Ken Clarke made this statement, "all haemophilia clinicians by this stage clearly believed that commercial blood products could and were transmitting AIDS".
In January 1984, Lord Glenarthur, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the DHSS, said that "It remains the case that there is no conclusive evidence of the transmission of AIDS through blood products, although the circumstantial evidence is strong".The use of untreated clotting-factor products and importation continued.
In April 1989, the HIV Haemophilia Litigation commenced, which culminated in December 1990 with an out-of-court settlement, following an investigation by ITV's The Cook Report in July 1990.
Full Times Pieces:
https://archive.ph/DvXu4
https://archive.ph/R5GcW
It is why Scotland voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom and is about to kick out the narrow little nationalists that are the SNP from power.
Putting boot into 52mph on Embankment claim
But you are right about Dan who?
(Seriously, I am only teasing @MoonRabbit; I like the way you stick your neck out with predictions which don't always come true. A lot of your, shall we say, 'out of the box thinking' is interesting and thought-provoking.)
Whatever MoonRabbit says is going to happen then bet on the opposite.
Anyway, this is not about a buoy...
There have always been weak articles like this on the site. Inevitable when you consider the volume they pump out daily. Though I’d note that at least a third of the parents at our primary school, possibly closer to half, don’t own a car. It’s perhaps of anthropological interest to those living outside big cities to understand the cultural norms and mores of the millions who do.
Grant Shapps and Wes Streeting to face Laura Kuenssberg
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-69029058
As for Elphicke, is part of the discomfort that her defection points out that sometimes, politics really is just about the personal? She may be a lousy ideological fit for Starmerite Labour, but it's clear that she really doesn't like Rishi.
That's going to be one of the common themes once I he election is called, I suspect, but it isn't how we like to tell ourselves democracy works.
The Hanoverian coarsening of features with age gene is evidently a strong one.
https://x.com/buzzingpop/status/1791477713590497633?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Westminster voting intention
LAB: 43% (+3)
CON: 25% (+1)
REF: 10% (-2)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
GRN: 7% (-)
via @OpiniumResearch, 15 May
https://x.com/britainelects/status/1792100917052891603?s=46
Reform continues its gentle decline.
“Gotten”. Shoot me now.
A majority (54%) of those in the UK think that the economy has gotten worse in the past 12 months.
A plurality (35%) are pessimistic about the economy in the next 12 months.
https://x.com/martinboon/status/1792086626799145175
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=374876
..The groundbreaking film, whose trailer starts with the leader cowering on a floor in diapers, uses a deepfake of the ruler's face transplanted onto the body of a real actor.
"To come extremely close to the dictator, we needed Putin, not an actor with make-up," Vega told AFP at the Cannes Film Festival, where he has been shopping the film to buyers.
"I called Putin and asked him if he wanted to play in my movie... No, that was a joke.".
...The film follows the ruler's life over six decades from the age of 10 when he is seen being beaten by his stepfather.
"In the end I show his death. A happy end," said Vega.
The initial idea came to Vega during the first days of Russia's 2022 invasion of neighboring Ukraine.
"First, I wanted to do a movie about the Russian mafia. Then I decided to do it about the biggest gangster," he said.
He shrugged off any concerns about reprisals.
"Putin should be afraid of me," he said.
In politics one way this occurs is in categorising people on a simplistic left/right axis. So then we can say, "Person x says this, therefore they are right-wing, therefore set disapproval to maximum setting."
Elphicke clearly has some views, particularly on immigration and Brexit, that would lead most people to place her on the further reaches of the right/left axis. But her views (and voting record) on welfare spending are to the left of the Tory government since 2010, and her views on housing seem quite flexible. She's a also reflected on her actions when her husband was accused and convicted and admitted to error. So she does seem to break the simplistic model.
As, I suspect, most people do, if you look close enough.
To your point I'm guessing most young families are in cities because that's where the jobs are.
Interviewees are 2 people who have been arrested in climate change demos, a relevant transport / mobility academic and a public health professional, who is also relevant. So a fairly narrow base.
The reduced vehicular travel trend is interesting, and afaik is Western Europe wide over a 20 year period - Eastern is different due to increased ownership. Surprised the trend of distinctly reduced vehicle ownership amongst younger 'generations' was not mentioned. Those need more examination.
The writer seems to have a beat around entertainment and local news, and this as a personal side interest.
https://muckrack.com/emma-grimshaw/articles
My take - main thing is that it could have been flagged as an piece with a significant opinion element. IMO it's OK as a "look at this opinion spectrum putting forward this case" piece, with some valuable comments, but needs better framing.
There are other aspects that could have been picked up that would have made it better. There was a great somewhat provocative quote on the school run in the video about Waterbeach I posted yesterday that'll I'll have a look for - abotu Antisocial behaviour caused by competitive parking.
I like Martin Boon a lot and was amused by his comment.
Yep the story makes zero sense outside of the context of Bristol (but from my memory of Bristol hills are unavoidable so rather them then me cycling round).
"Prince William has been named UK's third sexiest man of 2024."
Pity the man who came fourth. Somewhere in his attic Prince William doubtless has a portrait showing him at the peak of youthful beauty.
But the subset of that of households who can drive and can afford a car but chose not to have one is much smaller.
Car ownership in Bristol is only slightly lower than the national average:
https://www.driving.org/new-study-names-the-regions-with-the-highest-car-ownership-per-household/
Those without cars generally say they don’t miss them but it must cause issues when it comes to taking rubbish to the tip or picking up furniture from IKEA.
The carless parent cohort are a cross section from poor and on benefits to pretty wealthy and working in the city.
https://www.sarahwoodbury.com/on-the-use-of-the-word-gotten/
What recommends it is great story telling. It has a very satisfying narrative that runs through the book despite the many deviations. It is a long novel rewarding patience, which is something you develop as you get older.
A similar experience for me with Heart of Midlothian, which after three false starts I loved. It's a cracking read.
It's an interesting social phenomenon, and has implications for the future of housing. Sure, some will adopt driving later in life, but not all. They will prefer high density living with walkable facilities and public transport, once again mostly due to lifestyle rather than Ideology.
A Chelsea tractor on the school run has been the social equivalent of reading the Sun on public for a long, long time.
There’s a couple of “Christiana” branded ones, locally. Which makes me smile every time I see them.
"God Knows" by the same author is very good too, but I didn't find Heller's other books very gripping.
Another decade, and possibly no one will need to any more, anyway.
Where url is the image address (right-click image, copy address). You can miss out the alt="text" bit.
(Edit: Unless it's an image of a wine glass on a table from a balcony in a nondescript hotel someone else is paying for, in which case spare us.)
"With the local schools team, we said what what do you need in terms of access - how much parking do you need for parents in the morning? They basically said we don't want any because whatever you do outside the front of a primary school it will be chaos.
If you provide 50 parking spaces they'll be filled and more. If you provide none it will all be filled and more. So we'd rather you didn't provide any. So that was actually quite encouraging and not really the answer we'd expected."
(Separate facility provided for staff, disabled access etc. Plus a local mobility hub within walking distance on paths through amenity space.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVCgReNi3nM&t=1000s
‘Long’ is Bleak House; GE is a short story in comparison.
Guy goes into the doctor’s. “Doc, I’ve got a cricket ball stuck up my backside.” How’s that?” Don’t you start.”
The BBC should be competing for its funding not reliant on a license fee extorted from people who simply own a TV and want to watch live broadcasts.
The criminalisation of people for failure to pay fines, often the poorest in society, for not having a license in this day and age of multi media platforms is a disgrace.
The BBC seems of offer less and less to my generation. It’s happy to have our money. Less happy to provide or cater for the elder demographic.