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There’s utterly cynical politicians then there’s Siân Berry – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,733
edited May 8 in General
imageThere’s utterly cynical politicians then there’s Siân Berry – politicalbetting.com

The practical embodiment of political cynicism and treating voters with utter contempt from Green Party politician Siân Berry I hope electors in Brighton Pavillion have taken note @MrTomGray https://t.co/evdbNDvhS1

Read the full story here

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,133
    Primo!
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    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,722
    Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,284
    Good spot on the bet, TSE.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,164
    I’m inclined to agree that the Greens will have at least one seat in the next parliament. Won’t be Brighton Pavilion though!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    I was thinking 0 seats, like OKC I don't think they'll get Brighton Pavillion, but Bristol makes me think they have a shot.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,471
    Perfectly possible the Greens lose the Brighton seat but pick up the one in Bristol they are after.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,680
    TimS said:

    Frustrating in the extreme for supporters of PR like me, because she made use of the list system to do this. Exactly why any PR change we eventually adopt must be STV where this sort of pitch and switch isn’t possible.

    You can have this sort of thing happen under STV, if you write the rules that way. Local elections in Ireland are elected under STV, and it's a regular occurrence for councillors to move on to higher office and for a replacement to be co-opted by their party.

    AV is a very imperfect way to elect a replacement in a by-election for STV.

    You could have written the rules for the London Assembly list seats to require a vote to elect a replacement.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,154
    DougSeal said:

    Heh heh.

    Sian and I were in the same year at Trinity and were reasonably close friends. She was the JCR entz officer. After graduation we both lived in N19 and a few of us used to have Sunday kick abouts on Hampstead Heath.

    In 2003 there was an election for the Oxford Chancellorship and I sent an email round to a few of us who lived in North London suggesting we have a day out there to vote. We’d gone back a couple of years earlier to get our upgrade MAs and I was hoping that we could have another jolly in the same vein.

    Sian launched into a blistering attack on me alleging that by wanting to vote in an election that had no impact on me I was “elitist” and the type of hypocritical left liberal she had no desire to associate with. I haven’t spoken to her since save for brief pleasantries at a party in 2010. Neither have I voted Green.. She is utterly cynical and not a brilliant politician.

    You really need to get less highly strung friends - yesterday or the day before you told us you fell out with someone over a football related Facebook post and now it’s some friend falling out over a university election. Choose friends who aren’t wankers in the first place and it will save you a lot of grief.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,951
    Nigelb said:

    The bit of the headline the troll on the last thread didn't mention.

    AstraZeneca withdraws Covid-19 vaccine worldwide, citing surplus of newer vaccines
    Pharmaceutical company says newer shots led to decline in demand for AstraZeneca vaccine, which is no longer being manufactured or supplied
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/08/astrazeneca-withdraws-covid-19-vaccine-worldwide-citing-surplus-of-newer-vaccines

    Straight out of the troll handbook - modify a real story, present it in a different context.

    People don’t google for the actual story. I’m not talking esoteric searches - simply put a couple of words in the search box and hit return.

    I think many people are passive consumers of “news”. They simply haven’t got the habit of asking questions.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460
    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heh heh.

    Sian and I were in the same year at Trinity and were reasonably close friends. She was the JCR entz officer. After graduation we both lived in N19 and a few of us used to have Sunday kick abouts on Hampstead Heath.

    In 2003 there was an election for the Oxford Chancellorship and I sent an email round to a few of us who lived in North London suggesting we have a day out there to vote. We’d gone back a couple of years earlier to get our upgrade MAs and I was hoping that we could have another jolly in the same vein.

    Sian launched into a blistering attack on me alleging that by wanting to vote in an election that had no impact on me I was “elitist” and the type of hypocritical left liberal she had no desire to associate with. I haven’t spoken to her since save for brief pleasantries at a party in 2010. Neither have I voted Green.. She is utterly cynical and not a brilliant politician.

    You really need to get less highly strung friends - yesterday or the day before you told us you fell out with someone over a football related Facebook post and now it’s some friend falling out over a university election. Choose friends who aren’t wankers in the first place and it will save you a lot of grief.
    You may have a point. Or maybe, just maybe, it’s me…
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610
    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,437
    Presentationally this is v poor and a real contrast with C Lucas's approach, I must admit 0 seats would be my prediction on the back of this, of course the LDs stood aside IIRC in 2019 (not that it would have swung it) but I suspect the election fight will be a bit nastier this time around
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,732
    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    And did it really make that much difference who was on the list, anyway? Sian Berry doesn't strike me as that much of a draw. I'm sure there were voters who check the names on the lists, but I'm pretty sure there weren't many.

    Poor show, anyway.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,951

    TimS said:

    Frustrating in the extreme for supporters of PR like me, because she made use of the list system to do this. Exactly why any PR change we eventually adopt must be STV where this sort of pitch and switch isn’t possible.

    You can have this sort of thing happen under STV, if you write the rules that way. Local elections in Ireland are elected under STV, and it's a regular occurrence for councillors to move on to higher office and for a replacement to be co-opted by their party.

    AV is a very imperfect way to elect a replacement in a by-election for STV.

    You could have written the rules for the London Assembly list seats to require a vote to elect a replacement.
    The last sentence is the answer. Want the job? Have an election.

    Simple, easy to understand, fair.
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    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 271
    OK I am dim, but can someone ELI5 what the point of Berry doing this was?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    I appreciate that they are a different party and all but I can assure you that the majority of Scots certainly do not expect better of the Greens.

    And even as a general proposition it is suspect. People who are obsessed with a particular world view are very rarely that particular about the rights and wrongs of anything else and can justify all sorts of disgraceful behaviour for the greater good. Usually in a self serving way.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,886
    The local take:

    A parliamentary candidate for Brighton Pavilion has been accused of cronyism after stepping down from the London Assembly just three days after being re-elected.

    The Green Party's Siân Berry has been a member of the London Assembly since 2016 and was re-elected on Friday but announced she was quitting today.

    After announcing the news on X, formerly known as Twitter, Ms Berry was criticised for her decision.

    Political commentator Alex Armstrong said: "What a shame. Cronyism at its finest."


    https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24303202.brighton-pavilion-mp-candidate-sian-berry-accused-cronyism/?ref=twtrec
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610
    megasaur said:

    OK I am dim, but can someone ELI5 what the point of Berry doing this was?

    Berry is reasonably well known and reasonably popular in London, and with her heading the list, not only is there more of a ballot paper draw, but she got to front all the media and interviews for the campaign - people might have seen her on TV or heard the radio and been attracted to vote Green on the back of it, and now find that Berry isn’t representing their vote at all, as she’s b***ered off.

    Doubtless it was a nice little trainer for her, for the oncoming GE, but as far as London voters are concerned, it was a premeditated con trick.
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    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 271
    IanB2 said:

    megasaur said:

    OK I am dim, but can someone ELI5 what the point of Berry doing this was?

    Berry is reasonably well known and reasonably popular in London, and with her heading the list, not only is there more of a ballot paper draw, but she got to front all the media and interviews for the campaign - people might have seen her on TV or heard the radio and been attracted to vote Green on the back of it, and now find that Berry isn’t representing their vote at all, as she’s b***ered off.

    Doubtless it was a nice little trainer for her, for the oncoming GE, but as far as London voters are concerned, it was a premeditated con trick.
    Thank you
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,951
    megasaur said:

    OK I am dim, but can someone ELI5 what the point of Berry doing this was?

    Get more votes using her higher pubic profile. Then quit the job, so the next Green on the list gets the job.

    Using her coattails to get a Green into the assembly.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,951
    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heh heh.

    Sian and I were in the same year at Trinity and were reasonably close friends. She was the JCR entz officer. After graduation we both lived in N19 and a few of us used to have Sunday kick abouts on Hampstead Heath.

    In 2003 there was an election for the Oxford Chancellorship and I sent an email round to a few of us who lived in North London suggesting we have a day out there to vote. We’d gone back a couple of years earlier to get our upgrade MAs and I was hoping that we could have another jolly in the same vein.

    Sian launched into a blistering attack on me alleging that by wanting to vote in an election that had no impact on me I was “elitist” and the type of hypocritical left liberal she had no desire to associate with. I haven’t spoken to her since save for brief pleasantries at a party in 2010. Neither have I voted Green.. She is utterly cynical and not a brilliant politician.

    You really need to get less highly strung friends - yesterday or the day before you told us you fell out with someone over a football related Facebook post and now it’s some friend falling out over a university election. Choose friends who aren’t wankers in the first place and it will save you a lot of grief.
    You may have a point. Or maybe, just maybe, it’s me…
    Have more friends with shared interests - balancing balls on their noses in return for fresh fish?
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heh heh.

    Sian and I were in the same year at Trinity and were reasonably close friends. She was the JCR entz officer. After graduation we both lived in N19 and a few of us used to have Sunday kick abouts on Hampstead Heath.

    In 2003 there was an election for the Oxford Chancellorship and I sent an email round to a few of us who lived in North London suggesting we have a day out there to vote. We’d gone back a couple of years earlier to get our upgrade MAs and I was hoping that we could have another jolly in the same vein.

    Sian launched into a blistering attack on me alleging that by wanting to vote in an election that had no impact on me I was “elitist” and the type of hypocritical left liberal she had no desire to associate with. I haven’t spoken to her since save for brief pleasantries at a party in 2010. Neither have I voted Green.. She is utterly cynical and not a brilliant politician.

    You really need to get less highly strung friends - yesterday or the day before you told us you fell out with someone over a football related Facebook post and now it’s some friend falling out over a university election. Choose friends who aren’t wankers in the first place and it will save you a lot of grief.
    You may have a point. Or maybe, just maybe, it’s me…
    Have more friends with shared interests - balancing balls on their noses in return for fresh fish?
    That's a very good idea. I've been spending more time resting on my side on rocks along the coast as well.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,951
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heh heh.

    Sian and I were in the same year at Trinity and were reasonably close friends. She was the JCR entz officer. After graduation we both lived in N19 and a few of us used to have Sunday kick abouts on Hampstead Heath.

    In 2003 there was an election for the Oxford Chancellorship and I sent an email round to a few of us who lived in North London suggesting we have a day out there to vote. We’d gone back a couple of years earlier to get our upgrade MAs and I was hoping that we could have another jolly in the same vein.

    Sian launched into a blistering attack on me alleging that by wanting to vote in an election that had no impact on me I was “elitist” and the type of hypocritical left liberal she had no desire to associate with. I haven’t spoken to her since save for brief pleasantries at a party in 2010. Neither have I voted Green.. She is utterly cynical and not a brilliant politician.

    You really need to get less highly strung friends - yesterday or the day before you told us you fell out with someone over a football related Facebook post and now it’s some friend falling out over a university election. Choose friends who aren’t wankers in the first place and it will save you a lot of grief.
    You may have a point. Or maybe, just maybe, it’s me…
    Have more friends with shared interests - balancing balls on their noses in return for fresh fish?
    That's a very good idea. I've been spending more time resting on my side on rocks along the coast as well.
    And that’s exactly the relaxed kind of hobby that attracts relaxed people.

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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    Some interesting choices in IoW East, which does go Labour on current polling, with a significant Green vote to squeeze.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,120
    Completely with the rules of the election and the law. It's not our fault that Greens are the most intelligent party.

    It's the electoral system that should make you piss iron filings not people who understand how it works.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,951
    Dura_Ace said:

    Completely with the rules of the election and the law. It's not our fault that Greens are the most intelligent party.

    It's the electoral system that should make you piss iron filings not people who understand how it works.

    I presume you also sell crypto and low mileage bridges?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610
    edited May 8
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    Some interesting choices in IoW East, which does go Labour on current polling, with a significant Green vote to squeeze.
    Labour’s candidate was imposed on them by HQ, with no local involvement, and I hear that they’ve already had a good batch of resignations from the local party. For betting purposes I’d suggest a Tory hold. Unless the local primary campaign - which is very active - really gets traction behind one of the others?
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,182
    edited May 8
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    I appreciate that they are a different party and all but I can assure you that the majority of Scots certainly do not expect better of the Greens.

    And even as a general proposition it is suspect. People who are obsessed with a particular world view are very rarely that particular about the rights and wrongs of anything else and can justify all sorts of disgraceful behaviour for the greater good. Usually in a self serving way.
    Different party, though, as you say. Which raises the interesting question of whether they show different approaches under the Green banner.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,182
    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Frustrating in the extreme for supporters of PR like me, because she made use of the list system to do this. Exactly why any PR change we eventually adopt must be STV where this sort of pitch and switch isn’t possible.

    Party lists are about the worst possible way to elect representatives to a Parliament. The EU parliament was the same, as are the devolved assemblies in Scotland and Wales.

    Anyone wishing to be elected and take a public salary, should be elected by name.
    Not that true in Scotland. A lot of the MSPs are elected by FPTP constituencies. So there's that.

    Any remaining complaints to the Labour Party (prop: A.R.P. Blair).
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    I don't the People's Republic of Brighton will take any notice of their commissars' malfeasance.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,182
    Dura_Ace said:

    Completely with the rules of the election and the law. It's not our fault that Greens are the most intelligent party.

    It's the electoral system that should make you piss iron filings not people who understand how it works.

    Indeed. It's very noticeable that some PBers can't adjust to life outside Westminster and complain when the lesser breeds without the law (as they see them) do things differently, as if to spite them.

    See, for example, the incomprehension that First Ministers actually have to be elected in Scotland by all MSPs collectively, instead of doing it by a nod and a wink behind the scenes with KCIII's wotsits.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    I appreciate that they are a different party and all but I can assure you that the majority of Scots certainly do not expect better of the Greens.

    And even as a general proposition it is suspect. People who are obsessed with a particular world view are very rarely that particular about the rights and wrongs of anything else and can justify all sorts of disgraceful behaviour for the greater good. Usually in a self serving way.
    Different party, though, as you say. Which raises the interesting question of whether they show different approaches under the Green banner.
    I get the impression, and it is no more than that, that the English Greens are slightly less obsessed with sex and gender and show at least some interest in the environment.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,182
    No shit Sherlock: AI can spot fake paintings - if they are offered on internet marketplaces:

    https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/article/2024/may/08/fake-monet-and-renoir-on-ebay-among-counterfeits-identified-using-ai
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,182
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    I appreciate that they are a different party and all but I can assure you that the majority of Scots certainly do not expect better of the Greens.

    And even as a general proposition it is suspect. People who are obsessed with a particular world view are very rarely that particular about the rights and wrongs of anything else and can justify all sorts of disgraceful behaviour for the greater good. Usually in a self serving way.
    Different party, though, as you say. Which raises the interesting question of whether they show different approaches under the Green banner.
    I get the impression, and it is no more than that, that the English Greens are slightly less obsessed with sex and gender and show at least some interest in the environment.
    Oh, the Scots ones do too - it's just that the Unionists tend to be obsessed with sex and gender and so the media are too, and it's hard to discern. I submit in evidence the non-trivial percentage of PB utterly convinced the argument with Mr Yousaf ex-FM was about sex and gender.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,079
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    Some interesting choices in IoW East, which does go Labour on current polling, with a significant Green vote to squeeze.
    Labour’s candidate was imposed on them by HQ, with no local involvement, and I hear that they’ve already had a good batch of resignations from the local party. For betting purposes I’d suggest a Tory hold. Unless the local primary campaign - which is very active - really gets traction behind one of the others?
    Yes, I gathered that there was some resistance, but in practice activists tend to swing behind the choice in the end. Greens had a pretty poor ground game last time as I recall, time for an LD revival?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,133
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    I appreciate that they are a different party and all but I can assure you that the majority of Scots certainly do not expect better of the Greens.

    And even as a general proposition it is suspect. People who are obsessed with a particular world view are very rarely that particular about the rights and wrongs of anything else and can justify all sorts of disgraceful behaviour for the greater good. Usually in a self serving way.
    Different party, though, as you say. Which raises the interesting question of whether they show different approaches under the Green banner.
    I get the impression, and it is no more than that, that the English Greens are slightly less obsessed with sex and gender and show at least some interest in the environment.
    Several of the new English Greens elected last week seem more interested in events taking place 3,000 miles away, are of fringe religious views, were probably massive Labour supporters from 2015 until 2019, but now think Keir Starmer is “Literally Hitler”.
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    PJHPJH Posts: 507
    I suspect it will make little difference. Caroline Lucas had gradually built up what looks like a large personal vote and Sian Berry would have had a fight on her hands anyway. I doubt many in Brighton will be aware of her antics in London.

    I don't suppose it will make much difference to the Green vote in London either; despite being politically aware I didn't notice Berry was on the Green list and for most people thinking of voting Green it will be forgotten by the election. Though I agree it doesn't look good, and must lose a few votes at the margins.

    I was also thinking Bristol Central was out of reach but after looking at the local election results I'm not so sure. So I am in the swap Brighton for Bristol camp now.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,079
    .

    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    And did it really make that much difference who was on the list, anyway? Sian Berry doesn't strike me as that much of a draw. I'm sure there were voters who check the names on the lists, but I'm pretty sure there weren't many.

    Poor show, anyway.
    Is the list order decided by party members? That may be why we had the situation where their mayoral candidate was 4th on the list. Still, Berry shouldn’t have stood at all. She’d already resigned as a Camden councillor as she’s always in Brighton.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,079
    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Frustrating in the extreme for supporters of PR like me, because she made use of the list system to do this. Exactly why any PR change we eventually adopt must be STV where this sort of pitch and switch isn’t possible.

    Party lists are about the worst possible way to elect representatives to a Parliament. The EU parliament was the same, as are the devolved assemblies in Scotland and Wales.

    Anyone wishing to be elected and take a public salary, should be elected by name.
    I think it was the Conservative Party who chose to use a list system for Euro-elections in GB despite the UK already using STV in N Ireland.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,047
    PJH said:

    I suspect it will make little difference. Caroline Lucas had gradually built up what looks like a large personal vote and Sian Berry would have had a fight on her hands anyway. I doubt many in Brighton will be aware of her antics in London.

    I don't suppose it will make much difference to the Green vote in London either; despite being politically aware I didn't notice Berry was on the Green list and for most people thinking of voting Green it will be forgotten by the election. Though I agree it doesn't look good, and must lose a few votes at the margins.

    I was also thinking Bristol Central was out of reach but after looking at the local election results I'm not so sure. So I am in the swap Brighton for Bristol camp now.

    On the other hand Green New Deal, Gaza, Gender and Brexit have all shifted the dial towards the Greens away from Starmer Labour in Brighton. I can see them managing a hold. I think Brighton likes to be different.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,573
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    I appreciate that they are a different party and all but I can assure you that the majority of Scots certainly do not expect better of the Greens.

    And even as a general proposition it is suspect. People who are obsessed with a particular world view are very rarely that particular about the rights and wrongs of anything else and can justify all sorts of disgraceful behaviour for the greater good. Usually in a self serving way.
    Different party, though, as you say. Which raises the interesting question of whether they show different approaches under the Green banner.
    I get the impression, and it is no more than that, that the English Greens are slightly less obsessed with sex and gender and show at least some interest in the environment.
    Oh, the Scots ones do too - it's just that the Unionists tend to be obsessed with sex and gender and so the media are too, and it's hard to discern. I submit in evidence the non-trivial percentage of PB utterly convinced the argument with Mr Yousaf ex-FM was about sex and gender.
    I do think the response to the Cass review and in particular Harvie's interview about it seems to have been a breaking point for Yousaf or others in the SNP resulting in their dismissal from government. The timing was simply too linked for that to be an irrelevance. Doesn't mean it was the only issue of course.

    It will be interesting to see how Swinney handles the very awkward arithmetic that Yousaf struggled with. Cass was speaking to MSPs yesterday about conversion therapy being much more a matter for professional regulation than legislation. Will the bill banning it as a practice (and it is an abhorrent practice) still come forward?
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,382
    edited May 8
    Dura_Ace said:

    Completely with the rules of the election and the law. It's not our fault that Greens are the most intelligent party.

    It's the electoral system that should make you piss iron filings not people who understand how it works.

    Absolute garbage. Your position is akin to those MPs in the expenses scandal, who'd bought a duck house then said, "Don't blame the playa, blame the game".

    Firstly, everyone knows how the electoral system works. Expoliting it to have Berry's name on the ballot with her never having any intention of doing the job was legal but utterly unprincipled. Principles matter.

    Secondly, it isn't in the least bit "intelligent" of Berry. She's given Labour in Brighton a stick with which to beat her, and added to a growing problem for the Greens that they are losing their "principled" sheen, following revelations over the type of people they endorsed in local elections.
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    JamesFJamesF Posts: 16
    The way people vote in local elections is a poor guide to how they'll vote in general elections. But is there precedent (is it in fact even normal) for such a large reversal as would be required for Labour to win Bristol Central.

    In last week's election in wards comprising Bristol Central:
    Green - 40,281 votes (63%)
    Labour - 17,100 votes (26.5%)
    Lib Dems 3k
    Cons 3.5k
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465
    PJH said:

    I suspect it will make little difference. Caroline Lucas had gradually built up what looks like a large personal vote and Sian Berry would have had a fight on her hands anyway. I doubt many in Brighton will be aware of her antics in London.

    I don't suppose it will make much difference to the Green vote in London either; despite being politically aware I didn't notice Berry was on the Green list and for most people thinking of voting Green it will be forgotten by the election. Though I agree it doesn't look good, and must lose a few votes at the margins.

    I was also thinking Bristol Central was out of reach but after looking at the local election results I'm not so sure. So I am in the swap Brighton for Bristol camp now.

    I'd expect that Labour will make the voters of Brighton aware of Berry's antics.

    As you say, she'd have had a fight on her hands anyway, not just against Lucas's personal vote but also the state of Brighton Greens' running of their council.

    However, I tend to agree that there's a reasonable chance they might pick up something somewhere else - and Bristol is as good a shout as anywhere. If the Gaza war is still going on by the election (I doubt it, partly because the Israelis have control of just about the whole territory; partly because of pressure from Washington), then they might well win 2 or more.

    Quite how the Greens expect to keep their ultra-woke / conservative muslim coalition together is anyone's guess. Magic beans, possibly. Without power, slogan politics and ignoring the contradictions might work. It sure as hell won't once they come to casting actual votes, never mind running things.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,284
    Dura_Ace said:

    Completely with the rules of the election and the law. It's not our fault that Greens are the most intelligent party.

    It's the electoral system that should make you piss iron filings not people who understand how it works.

    You're not usually one for the rules.

    I strongly favour PR, too. But this is taking the piss.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    This is really despicable behaviour.

    The Greens are also going through a Labour anti-Semitism 2.0 crisis, so they are in real trouble.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    edited May 8
    Brexit is so bad it’s screwed Germany



  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,658
    Brighton resident here. One of the (many) reasons Caroline Lucas is so popular in her constituency is that she is seen (rightly, I think) as highly principled and of great integrity. Labour now has the ammunition to suggest that her proposed successor can't emulate that. I think the seat will flip to Brighton.

    And as Carlotta has mentioned, the Labour Council (with an impressive leader, Bella Sankey) has been doing a pretty good job since taking over from the Greens, which will help them - the constituency covers most of central Brighton.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,071

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heh heh.

    Sian and I were in the same year at Trinity and were reasonably close friends. She was the JCR entz officer. After graduation we both lived in N19 and a few of us used to have Sunday kick abouts on Hampstead Heath.

    In 2003 there was an election for the Oxford Chancellorship and I sent an email round to a few of us who lived in North London suggesting we have a day out there to vote. We’d gone back a couple of years earlier to get our upgrade MAs and I was hoping that we could have another jolly in the same vein.

    Sian launched into a blistering attack on me alleging that by wanting to vote in an election that had no impact on me I was “elitist” and the type of hypocritical left liberal she had no desire to associate with. I haven’t spoken to her since save for brief pleasantries at a party in 2010. Neither have I voted Green.. She is utterly cynical and not a brilliant politician.

    You really need to get less highly strung friends - yesterday or the day before you told us you fell out with someone over a football related Facebook post and now it’s some friend falling out over a university election. Choose friends who aren’t wankers in the first place and it will save you a lot of grief.
    You may have a point. Or maybe, just maybe, it’s me…

    Have more friends with shared interests - balancing balls on their noses in return for fresh fish?
    I hope your former friends didn’t find you too Grey, or Common.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    Some interesting choices in IoW East, which does go Labour on current polling, with a significant Green vote to squeeze.
    Labour’s candidate was imposed on them by HQ, with no local involvement, and I hear that they’ve already had a good batch of resignations from the local party. For betting purposes I’d suggest a Tory hold. Unless the local primary campaign - which is very active - really gets traction behind one of the others?
    Yes, I gathered that there was some resistance, but in practice activists tend to swing behind the choice in the end. Greens had a pretty poor ground game last time as I recall, time for an LD revival?
    The LDs are putting up a reasonably popular councillor and mayor in Ryde, and the local party seems enthusiastic. They certainly stand a chance of overtaking the Greens. As I said, there’s a very active primary campaign, modelled on the south Devon one, and that will be holding a vote among its signed up voters in early September. That is likely to have some influence on how the GE goes.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    Berry is a carpet bagger though, if Labour has selected a local candidate I think it will actually be quite an easy win for them.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,886
    MaxPB said:

    I don't the People's Republic of Brighton will take any notice of their commissars' malfeasance.

    They just chucked out the Green Council and installed a Labour majority one, so there is that.....
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,460
    edited May 8
    Leon said:

    Brexit is so bad it’s screwed Germany



    Most of us older than 2 would say that unironically. Screwing the economy of the largest country in Europe is only a benefit to Britain in the minds of those whose preferred reading matter remains Commando Comics.

    The German idiocy of relying on Russian gas and abolishing nuclear has pushed their energy costs up thus destroying their industrial sector. We could, and should, have avoided that while avoiding our own native idiocy of Brexit.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610

    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Frustrating in the extreme for supporters of PR like me, because she made use of the list system to do this. Exactly why any PR change we eventually adopt must be STV where this sort of pitch and switch isn’t possible.

    Party lists are about the worst possible way to elect representatives to a Parliament. The EU parliament was the same, as are the devolved assemblies in Scotland and Wales.

    Anyone wishing to be elected and take a public salary, should be elected by name.
    I think it was the Conservative Party who chose to use a list system for Euro-elections in GB despite the UK already using STV in N Ireland.
    Doubtless they were afraid that if people got to use and understand STV, they might like it just that little bit too much.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,182

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    Heh heh.

    Sian and I were in the same year at Trinity and were reasonably close friends. She was the JCR entz officer. After graduation we both lived in N19 and a few of us used to have Sunday kick abouts on Hampstead Heath.

    In 2003 there was an election for the Oxford Chancellorship and I sent an email round to a few of us who lived in North London suggesting we have a day out there to vote. We’d gone back a couple of years earlier to get our upgrade MAs and I was hoping that we could have another jolly in the same vein.

    Sian launched into a blistering attack on me alleging that by wanting to vote in an election that had no impact on me I was “elitist” and the type of hypocritical left liberal she had no desire to associate with. I haven’t spoken to her since save for brief pleasantries at a party in 2010. Neither have I voted Green.. She is utterly cynical and not a brilliant politician.

    You really need to get less highly strung friends - yesterday or the day before you told us you fell out with someone over a football related Facebook post and now it’s some friend falling out over a university election. Choose friends who aren’t wankers in the first place and it will save you a lot of grief.
    You may have a point. Or maybe, just maybe, it’s me…

    Have more friends with shared interests - balancing balls on their noses in return for fresh fish?
    I hope your former friends didn’t find you too Grey, or Common.
    OTOH I'm sure we won't see you on TV indelicately exposed in the middle of Scarborough harbour.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,886
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    I appreciate that they are a different party and all but I can assure you that the majority of Scots certainly do not expect better of the Greens.

    And even as a general proposition it is suspect. People who are obsessed with a particular world view are very rarely that particular about the rights and wrongs of anything else and can justify all sorts of disgraceful behaviour for the greater good. Usually in a self serving way.
    Different party, though, as you say. Which raises the interesting question of whether they show different approaches under the Green banner.
    I get the impression, and it is no more than that, that the English Greens are slightly less obsessed with sex and gender and show at least some interest in the environment.
    Oh, the Scots ones do too - it's just that the Unionists tend to be obsessed with sex and gender and so the media are too, and it's hard to discern. I submit in evidence the non-trivial percentage of PB utterly convinced the argument with Mr Yousaf ex-FM was about sex and gender.
    I do think the response to the Cass review and in particular Harvie's interview about it seems to have been a breaking point for Yousaf or others in the SNP resulting in their dismissal from government. The timing was simply too linked for that to be an irrelevance. Doesn't mean it was the only issue of course.

    It will be interesting to see how Swinney handles the very awkward arithmetic that Yousaf struggled with. Cass was speaking to MSPs yesterday about conversion therapy being much more a matter for professional regulation than legislation. Will the bill banning it as a practice (and it is an abhorrent practice) still come forward?
    It's worth watching....and how MSPs devoted one whole hour to discussing a 388 page report with its author:

    https://www.scottishparliament.tv/meeting/health-social-care-and-sport-committee-may-7-2024
  • Options
    ajbajb Posts: 124
    DavidL said:

    megasaur said:

    OK I am dim, but can someone ELI5 what the point of Berry doing this was?

    With the help of Google I have now learned what ELI5 means. Explain Like in 5 minutes.

    This is almost certainly my new fact for the day. Thank you.
    Huh, I'd vaguely assumed it was some kind of contraction of "elucidate". This makes more sense.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,658

    Brighton resident here. One of the (many) reasons Caroline Lucas is so popular in her constituency is that she is seen (rightly, I think) as highly principled and of great integrity. Labour now has the ammunition to suggest that her proposed successor can't emulate that. I think the seat will flip to Brighton.

    And as Carlotta has mentioned, the Labour Council (with an impressive leader, Bella Sankey) has been doing a pretty good job since taking over from the Greens, which will help them - the constituency covers most of central Brighton.

    Sorry. I meant flip to Labour, obviously!
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,680

    JamesF said:

    The way people vote in local elections is a poor guide to how they'll vote in general elections. But is there precedent (is it in fact even normal) for such a large reversal as would be required for Labour to win Bristol Central.

    In last week's election in wards comprising Bristol Central:
    Green - 40,281 votes (63%)
    Labour - 17,100 votes (26.5%)
    Lib Dems 3k
    Cons 3.5k

    Historically, the Lib Dems have run loads of Councils where they weren't even second in national elections.

    It's a good result for the Greens in Bristol, certainly. But I remain sceptical.
    The Labour MP is a good choice for defending a seat from a Green challenge.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,535
    edited May 8
    You shouldn't stand for something you know you won't be doing - but I guess resigning immediately is better than trying to be an Assembly member when you don't have the time to give it justice?
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,071

    .

    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    And did it really make that much difference who was on the list, anyway? Sian Berry doesn't strike me as that much of a draw. I'm sure there were voters who check the names on the lists, but I'm pretty sure there weren't many.

    Poor show, anyway.
    Is the list order decided by party members? That may be why we had the situation where their mayoral candidate was 4th on the list. Still, Berry shouldn’t have stood at all. She’d already resigned as a Camden councillor as she’s always in Brighton.
    There is a balance to be made between letting party members choose - think Conservative Party - and having party HQ impose locally unpopular candidates. STV allows voters a greater choice than other PR systems, so not popular with party executives.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Brexit is so bad it’s screwed Germany



    Most of us older than 2 would say that unironically. Screwing the economy of the largest country in Europe is only a benefit to Britain in the minds of those whose preferred reading matter remains Commando Comics.

    The German idiocy of relying on Russian gas and abolishing nuclear has pushed their energy costs up thus destroying their industrial sector. We could, and should, have avoided that while avoiding our own native idiocy of Brexit.
    At what point did I say this benefits Britain?! At no point

    And I agree this is bad for Europe as a whole, what’s more it’s arguably been accelerated by Ukrainian proxies acting for America - blowing up Nordstream

    But it’s not just energy. Germany is screwed because they are also reliant on mid-high level manufacturing, which China once imported in huge volumes. But now China can produce all this for itself; and so it doesn’t need German imports so much, and China can supplant Germany in OTHER export markets

    I remember saying this might happen a few years back and PBers loudly pooh-poohing the notion on the basis “made in Germany” is such a good brand it cannot be replaced. It IS a good brand but if someone can do it cheaper, it will be replaced
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610
    kinabalu said:

    You shouldn't stand for something you know you won't be doing - but I guess resigning immediately is better than trying to be an Assembly member when you don't have the time to give it justice?

    It is blindingly obvious this was her plan all along
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,959
    edited May 8

    JamesF said:

    The way people vote in local elections is a poor guide to how they'll vote in general elections. But is there precedent (is it in fact even normal) for such a large reversal as would be required for Labour to win Bristol Central.

    In last week's election in wards comprising Bristol Central:
    Green - 40,281 votes (63%)
    Labour - 17,100 votes (26.5%)
    Lib Dems 3k
    Cons 3.5k

    Historically, the Lib Dems have run loads of Councils where they weren't even second in national elections.

    It's a good result for the Greens in Bristol, certainly. But I remain sceptical.
    My favourite example of this is Watford. The Lib Dem have won the Mayoral election every time it has happened since the post was created in 2002, the closest it's ever been is a 15% lead. They've run the council since 2003 (often with significant majorities). But in 2019, despite having a massive majority of councillors and public vote, and the Mayor re-elected with a massive majority in 2018 too, they came a pretty distant third.

    Fun Fact: My first ever political bet was on Watford in 2010.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,098
    edited May 8
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    I appreciate that they are a different party and all but I can assure you that the majority of Scots certainly do not expect better of the Greens.

    And even as a general proposition it is suspect. People who are obsessed with a particular world view are very rarely that particular about the rights and wrongs of anything else and can justify all sorts of disgraceful behaviour for the greater good. Usually in a self serving way.
    Different party, though, as you say. Which raises the interesting question of whether they show different approaches under the Green banner.
    I get the impression, and it is no more than that, that the English Greens are slightly less obsessed with sex and gender and show at least some interest in the environment.
    Oh, the Scots ones do too - it's just that the Unionists tend to be obsessed with sex and gender and so the media are too, and it's hard to discern. I submit in evidence the non-trivial percentage of PB utterly convinced the argument with Mr Yousaf ex-FM was about sex and gender.
    I do think the response to the Cass review and in particular Harvie's interview about it seems to have been a breaking point for Yousaf or others in the SNP resulting in their dismissal from government. The timing was simply too linked for that to be an irrelevance. Doesn't mean it was the only issue of course.

    It will be interesting to see how Swinney handles the very awkward arithmetic that Yousaf struggled with. Cass was speaking to MSPs yesterday about conversion therapy being much more a matter for professional regulation than legislation. Will the bill banning it as a practice (and it is an abhorrent practice) still come forward?
    It certainly was not the only issue. Ultimately the Greens and the SNP hold very similar positions on Trans - it was the reversal of climate change targets that caused the rift.

    Indeed the Gender Recognition Reform bill was a 2016 and 2021 SNP manifesto commitment and subsequently introduced by an SNP minister. It's slightly bonkers to spend months criticising the SNP for that reform and then suddenly decide that their gender-critical views caused the split with the Greens.

    And honestly, the Greens are good value on climate change. Governments love setting climate change targets and making lots of noise, but not actually doing anything about it and then discarding the target at political expediency. At the least the Greens are up front about the kind of transformation that is required and are willing to resign from government should the targets be abandoned.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,951
    edited May 8
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Brexit is so bad it’s screwed Germany



    Most of us older than 2 would say that unironically. Screwing the economy of the largest country in Europe is only a benefit to Britain in the minds of those whose preferred reading matter remains Commando Comics.

    The German idiocy of relying on Russian gas and abolishing nuclear has pushed their energy costs up thus destroying their industrial sector. We could, and should, have avoided that while avoiding our own native idiocy of Brexit.
    It's more that the story of German businesses investing in the German economy slowly becoming a bit of a myth.

    Increasingly, investment moved further East - when Ukraine was invaded, there were massive problems for industry in Germany due to components not arriving.

    It's become quite noticeable, in the last few years, that for kitchen white goods (for example), some lines are not made in Germany and often have very poor quality.

    The mad way in which the German car industry has approached electrification hasn't helped. Instead of taking it as a chance to explore new markets...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,051
    Not sure about this at the header price of 1.25, more like even money perhaps - the 'larger' issues of Gaza will I think counteract for Pavilion and Bristol Central is also very much in play. I don't think it's terrible bet at the right price but the prices in the header show too thin a market to my mind to place a bet on either side profitably.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    For a good 50-80 years “Made in England” was the best brand in the world of manufacturing. We started it, we perfected it early, it’s poignant to read of people at that time - in the 19th century - seeking out English manufactures goods because of their known and clear superiority

    England still makes great stuff but not that much of it, relatively. Looks like the same is now happening to Germany
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,733
    Carnyx said:

    No shit Sherlock: AI can spot fake paintings - if they are offered on internet marketplaces:

    https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/article/2024/may/08/fake-monet-and-renoir-on-ebay-among-counterfeits-identified-using-ai

    That's ruined the next series of Fake or Fortune then. Although come to think of it, art dealers will be salivating over the chance to use this AI in the other direction, that is to uncover sleepers: works that really are by famous artists and not just copies.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,680
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    You shouldn't stand for something you know you won't be doing - but I guess resigning immediately is better than trying to be an Assembly member when you don't have the time to give it justice?

    It is blindingly obvious this was her plan all along
    It's the premeditated aspect of it that makes it so cynical, dishonest and arrogant.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,959
    IanB2 said:

    megasaur said:

    OK I am dim, but can someone ELI5 what the point of Berry doing this was?

    Berry is reasonably well known and reasonably popular in London, and with her heading the list, not only is there more of a ballot paper draw, but she got to front all the media and interviews for the campaign - people might have seen her on TV or heard the radio and been attracted to vote Green on the back of it, and now find that Berry isn’t representing their vote at all, as she’s b***ered off.

    Doubtless it was a nice little trainer for her, for the oncoming GE, but as far as London voters are concerned, it was a premeditated con trick.
    I assume this was the idea, but I'm really unconvinced a meaningful number of voters switched because her name was 1st and not 5th on the Green Assembly List Ballot. She could have done media from any spot on the list, surely?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,315
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    I appreciate that they are a different party and all but I can assure you that the majority of Scots certainly do not expect better of the Greens.

    And even as a general proposition it is suspect. People who are obsessed with a particular world view are very rarely that particular about the rights and wrongs of anything else and can justify all sorts of disgraceful behaviour for the greater good. Usually in a self serving way.
    Different party, though, as you say. Which raises the interesting question of whether they show different approaches under the Green banner.
    I get the impression, and it is no more than that, that the English Greens are slightly less obsessed with sex and gender and show at least some interest in the environment.
    Oh, the Scots ones do too - it's just that the Unionists tend to be obsessed with sex and gender and so the media are too, and it's hard to discern. I submit in evidence the non-trivial percentage of PB utterly convinced the argument with Mr Yousaf ex-FM was about sex and gender.
    I do think the response to the Cass review and in particular Harvie's interview about it seems to have been a breaking point for Yousaf or others in the SNP resulting in their dismissal from government. The timing was simply too linked for that to be an irrelevance. Doesn't mean it was the only issue of course.

    It will be interesting to see how Swinney handles the very awkward arithmetic that Yousaf struggled with. Cass was speaking to MSPs yesterday about conversion therapy being much more a matter for professional regulation than legislation. Will the bill banning it as a practice (and it is an abhorrent practice) still come forward?
    It certainly was not the only issue. Ultimately the Greens and the SNP hold very similar positions on Trans - it was the reversal of climate change targets that caused the rift.

    Indeed the Gender Recognition Reform bill was a 2016 and 2021 SNP manifesto commitment and subsequently introduced by an SNP minister. It's slightly bonkers to spend months criticising the SNP for that reform and then suddenly decide that their gender-critical views caused the split with the Greens.

    And honestly, the Greens are good value on climate change. Governments love setting climate change targets and making lots of noise, but not actually doing anything about it and then discarding the target at political expediency. At the least the Greens are up front about the kind of transformation that is required and are willing to resign from government should the targets be abandoned.
    The Greens attitude to nuclear power is a sure sign that they're not serious about climate change. Lucas saying decades ago that we should not build nukes because they won't be ready in time; and repeating it now, when they would have been ready, is an example...

    Also see the Greens allegedly being in favour of high-speed rail, but against HS2, because they saw that position as a vote-winner in the home counties.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,951
    Leon said:

    For a good 50-80 years “Made in England” was the best brand in the world of manufacturing. We started it, we perfected it early, it’s poignant to read of people at that time - in the 19th century - seeking out English manufactures goods because of their known and clear superiority

    England still makes great stuff but not that much of it, relatively. Looks like the same is now happening to Germany

    Clement and Whitworth probably screwed Babbage over a bit. While accidentally inventing a chunk of precision mass production.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,886
    edited May 8
    MaxPB said:

    Berry is a carpet bagger though, if Labour has selected a local candidate I think it will actually be quite an easy win for them.

    They have:

    This is personal for me.

    I’m standing to be an MP in the city I love and where I’ve chosen to live for 25 years.

    I’ve not stood or tried to stand anywhere else. Nor do career & pay really motivate me and, frankly, never have.

    Making the change we need does.


    https://x.com/MrTomGray/status/1775912163300823300

    https://twitter.com/TG4Pavilion
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Brexit is so bad it’s screwed Germany



    Most of us older than 2 would say that unironically. Screwing the economy of the largest country in Europe is only a benefit to Britain in the minds of those whose preferred reading matter remains Commando Comics.

    The German idiocy of relying on Russian gas and abolishing nuclear has pushed their energy costs up thus destroying their industrial sector. We could, and should, have avoided that while avoiding our own native idiocy of Brexit.
    It's more that the story of German businesses investing in the German economy slowly becoming a bit of a myth.

    Increasingly, investment moved further East - when Ukraine was invaded, there were massive problems for industry in Germany due to components not arriving.

    It's become quite noticeable, in the last few years, that for kitchen white goods (for example), some lines are not made in Germany and often have very poor quality.

    The mad way in which the German car industry has approached electrification hasn't helped. Instead of taking it as a chance to explore new markets...
    China is doing to Germany what Japan did to Britain (cf motorbikes)
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,133
    Leon said:

    Brexit is so bad it’s screwed Germany

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/pe/eir4jojh6ejz.jpeg" alt="" />

    You’ll like this one:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgypzg4edvo

    A UK firm developing artificial intelligence (AI) tech to power self-driving cars has raised $1.05bn (£840m) in funding.
    Microsoft and leading chip-maker, Nvidia, are among the companies investing in Wayve's latest funding round, led by investment firm SoftBank.

    It is the largest known investment in an AI company in Europe to date.

    Wayve says the funding will allow it to help build the autonomous cars of the future.

    Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it "anchors the UK’s position as an AI superpower".
    "The fact that a homegrown, British company has secured the biggest investment yet in a UK AI start-up is a testament to our leadership in this industry", he said.

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610
    Quincel said:

    JamesF said:

    The way people vote in local elections is a poor guide to how they'll vote in general elections. But is there precedent (is it in fact even normal) for such a large reversal as would be required for Labour to win Bristol Central.

    In last week's election in wards comprising Bristol Central:
    Green - 40,281 votes (63%)
    Labour - 17,100 votes (26.5%)
    Lib Dems 3k
    Cons 3.5k

    Historically, the Lib Dems have run loads of Councils where they weren't even second in national elections.

    It's a good result for the Greens in Bristol, certainly. But I remain sceptical.
    My favourite example of this is Watford. The Lib Dem have won the Mayoral election every time it has happened since the post was created in 2002, the closest it's ever been is a 15% lead. They've run the council since 2003 (often with significant majorities). But in 2019, despite having a massive majority of councillors and public vote, and the Mayor re-elected with a massive majority in 2018 too, they came a pretty distant third.

    Fun Fact: My first ever political bet was on Watford in 2010.
    The electoral areas aren’t the same, and they did get exceptionally close in 2010
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,098
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Brexit is so bad it’s screwed Germany

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/pe/eir4jojh6ejz.jpeg" alt="" />

    You’ll like this one:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgypzg4edvo

    A UK firm developing artificial intelligence (AI) tech to power self-driving cars has raised $1.05bn (£840m) in funding.
    Microsoft and leading chip-maker, Nvidia, are among the companies investing in Wayve's latest funding round, led by investment firm SoftBank.

    It is the largest known investment in an AI company in Europe to date.

    Wayve says the funding will allow it to help build the autonomous cars of the future.

    Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it "anchors the UK’s position as an AI superpower".
    "The fact that a homegrown, British company has secured the biggest investment yet in a UK AI start-up is a testament to our leadership in this industry", he said.

    A UK firm until about this time next week.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,226

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    I appreciate that they are a different party and all but I can assure you that the majority of Scots certainly do not expect better of the Greens.

    And even as a general proposition it is suspect. People who are obsessed with a particular world view are very rarely that particular about the rights and wrongs of anything else and can justify all sorts of disgraceful behaviour for the greater good. Usually in a self serving way.
    Different party, though, as you say. Which raises the interesting question of whether they show different approaches under the Green banner.
    I get the impression, and it is no more than that, that the English Greens are slightly less obsessed with sex and gender and show at least some interest in the environment.
    Oh, the Scots ones do too - it's just that the Unionists tend to be obsessed with sex and gender and so the media are too, and it's hard to discern. I submit in evidence the non-trivial percentage of PB utterly convinced the argument with Mr Yousaf ex-FM was about sex and gender.
    I do think the response to the Cass review and in particular Harvie's interview about it seems to have been a breaking point for Yousaf or others in the SNP resulting in their dismissal from government. The timing was simply too linked for that to be an irrelevance. Doesn't mean it was the only issue of course.

    It will be interesting to see how Swinney handles the very awkward arithmetic that Yousaf struggled with. Cass was speaking to MSPs yesterday about conversion therapy being much more a matter for professional regulation than legislation. Will the bill banning it as a practice (and it is an abhorrent practice) still come forward?
    ...MSPs devoted one whole hour to discussing a 388 page report...
    I'm sure you'll make up for it

    (ducks)

    :):):):)
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,959
    IanB2 said:

    Quincel said:

    JamesF said:

    The way people vote in local elections is a poor guide to how they'll vote in general elections. But is there precedent (is it in fact even normal) for such a large reversal as would be required for Labour to win Bristol Central.

    In last week's election in wards comprising Bristol Central:
    Green - 40,281 votes (63%)
    Labour - 17,100 votes (26.5%)
    Lib Dems 3k
    Cons 3.5k

    Historically, the Lib Dems have run loads of Councils where they weren't even second in national elections.

    It's a good result for the Greens in Bristol, certainly. But I remain sceptical.
    My favourite example of this is Watford. The Lib Dem have won the Mayoral election every time it has happened since the post was created in 2002, the closest it's ever been is a 15% lead. They've run the council since 2003 (often with significant majorities). But in 2019, despite having a massive majority of councillors and public vote, and the Mayor re-elected with a massive majority in 2018 too, they came a pretty distant third.

    Fun Fact: My first ever political bet was on Watford in 2010.
    The electoral areas aren’t the same, and they did get exceptionally close in 2010
    That's true, though they are fairly close. The boundaries are Watford District Council plus 5 wards of Three Rivers District Council, right? And the point still stands: In the 2019 locals the Lib Dems won all but one of the Three Rivers wards in the seat!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Brexit is so bad it’s screwed Germany

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/pe/eir4jojh6ejz.jpeg" alt="" />

    You’ll like this one:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgypzg4edvo

    A UK firm developing artificial intelligence (AI) tech to power self-driving cars has raised $1.05bn (£840m) in funding.
    Microsoft and leading chip-maker, Nvidia, are among the companies investing in Wayve's latest funding round, led by investment firm SoftBank.

    It is the largest known investment in an AI company in Europe to date.

    Wayve says the funding will allow it to help build the autonomous cars of the future.

    Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it "anchors the UK’s position as an AI superpower".
    "The fact that a homegrown, British company has secured the biggest investment yet in a UK AI start-up is a testament to our leadership in this industry", he said.

    Yes I know. Read it yesterday. Presume I know almost everything about REDACTED but I just can’t speak about it. If I could - the stuff I could tell you - honestly mindblowing. And so few are even remotely aware! Almost none! But the rules is the rules, I don’t particularly want to get banned
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,897
    JamesF said:

    The way people vote in local elections is a poor guide to how they'll vote in general elections. But is there precedent (is it in fact even normal) for such a large reversal as would be required for Labour to win Bristol Central.

    In last week's election in wards comprising Bristol Central:
    Green - 40,281 votes (63%)
    Labour - 17,100 votes (26.5%)
    Lib Dems 3k
    Cons 3.5k

    What method did you use?
    Using the "top vote" method, the figures were:

    Bristol Central
    Grn 14,965
    Lab 7,785
    Con 1,532
    LD 1,454
    TUSC 182
    Ind 135

    There is certainly precedent, in 2005 LDs held every ward in Islington South and Liverpool Wavertree but Labour held the seats.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,535
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    You shouldn't stand for something you know you won't be doing - but I guess resigning immediately is better than trying to be an Assembly member when you don't have the time to give it justice?

    It is blindingly obvious this was her plan all along
    It is. But having stood (which she shouldn't have) it is now better to resign than do the job badly because she's focused on something else. I mean, that would be even worse, wouldn't it. Or would it? Not sure really.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,959
    The Hong Kong Police have released footage of an exceptionally satisfying takedown of 5 men attempting to rob a jewelry store. Apparently the police had a tip-off and so arrived on the scene about 20 seconds into the robbery.

    https://twitter.com/hkfp/status/1788126236524331133
  • Options
    JamesFJamesF Posts: 16

    JamesF said:

    The way people vote in local elections is a poor guide to how they'll vote in general elections. But is there precedent (is it in fact even normal) for such a large reversal as would be required for Labour to win Bristol Central.

    In last week's election in wards comprising Bristol Central:
    Green - 40,281 votes (63%)
    Labour - 17,100 votes (26.5%)
    Lib Dems 3k
    Cons 3.5k

    What method did you use?
    Using the "top vote" method, the figures were:

    Bristol Central
    Grn 14,965
    Lab 7,785
    Con 1,532
    LD 1,454
    TUSC 182
    Ind 135

    There is certainly precedent, in 2005 LDs held every ward in Islington South and Liverpool Wavertree but Labour held the seats.
    I used the WRONG method. I just counted the votes for each candidate in each ward. Thanks for correcting me.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,226
    edited May 8
    @Leon, @Malmesbury, @DougSeal, I note your conversation on German decline. As ever, Zeihan got there first. YouTube gives a transcript of each video. An AI summary of the transcript by https://ahrefs.com/writing-tools/summarizer is given below:

    The main points of the text are as follows:
    1. Germany has three unsolvable problems that will likely lead to its downfall as a modern economy and nation state in the next 20 to 30 years.
    2. The first problem is Germany's trade relationship with Russia and China. Germany heavily relies on Russian raw materials, especially energy, but the cost of cutting ties with Russia has led to significantly higher energy prices. Companies in the energy sector are moving out due to the inability to bring costs down. Germany has also doubled down on its trade relationship with China, despite the ethical concerns associated with authoritarian regimes.
    3. The second problem is Germany's demographics. The country has been on a downward spiral for over a hundred years, and by 2030, a large portion of the skilled labor force will be retired. This will lead to a decline in workmanship and a collapse in the workforce, making it difficult for Germany to fund its own industrial buildup and consume what it produces.
    4. The third problem is Germany's energy system. Germany relies on a bottomless supply of inexpensive and reliable energy, primarily from Russia. However, with the decline in trade relations with Russia, Germany now relies on liquefied natural gas from the United States and crude oil from the Middle East. The country has largely shut down nuclear power and is left with lignite coal, which contributes to high carbon emissions.
    5. The combination of these three problems makes Germany's current system unsustainable. The country is likely to face the end of its ethnicity and decline as an industrial power within the next 10 to 15 years. The unresolved European debt crisis and the energy crisis further contribute to the bleak outlook for Germany.
    6. Despite these challenges, Germany has shown a willingness to prioritize morals and ethics over convenience and wealth. This was evident when Germany chose to face an energy crisis rather than give in to Russia's demands during the Ukraine war. However, it remains to be seen if Germany's commitment to morals and ethics will be enough to overcome its other problems.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,154
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Brexit is so bad it’s screwed Germany

    img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020679/uploads/editor/pe/eir4jojh6ejz.jpeg" alt="" />

    You’ll like this one:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgypzg4edvo

    A UK firm developing artificial intelligence (AI) tech to power self-driving cars has raised $1.05bn (£840m) in funding.
    Microsoft and leading chip-maker, Nvidia, are among the companies investing in Wayve's latest funding round, led by investment firm SoftBank.

    It is the largest known investment in an AI company in Europe to date.

    Wayve says the funding will allow it to help build the autonomous cars of the future.

    Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it "anchors the UK’s position as an AI superpower".
    "The fact that a homegrown, British company has secured the biggest investment yet in a UK AI start-up is a testament to our leadership in this industry", he said.

    There was a good interview with the boss this morning. He was saying that they got loads of support in uk at start-up level but now they need to get it from mainly US sources which is annoying. The interviewer was incredulous when boss explained that he was being driven around London effectively by AI just yesterday and that the lady from Peugeot was wrong to say self driving was such a long way off because AI is developing so quickly all old ideas of development pace are out the window.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,599
    IanB2 said:

    I agree with the lead; somehow you expect better from the Green Party. As someone who voted Green the last two GEs, I can now discount them entirely from the coming one. It was deeply cynical and must leave many London voters feeling that they have been used.

    Agree. Part of the schtick of the Greens - and LDs pre-2010 - was being different to other politicians, making them a good repository for protest votes. Afterall, the power-hungry are unlikely to join Greens or LDs so there's a certain logic to them being more principled, true or not. 2010 exposed the LDs on that front on tuition fees which was seen to be a core principle and one in fact on which they had made individual pledges. This could cost the Greens the 'we're different and better, anti-politicians' part of their vote, although it's not clear where that 'different and better, anti-politicians' vote would go.

    It seems a supremely daft move, overall.
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