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Sunak’s spot of sunshine: Reform underperformed – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,733
edited May 7 in General
imageSunak’s spot of sunshine: Reform underperformed – politicalbetting.com

The locals didn’t offer much comfort for the Tories. The high point was Ben Houchen surviving a 17% swing against him. The Lib Dems won more councillors than them for the first time since 1996. But there was one glimmer of hope: Reform UK fell a fair bit short of what their national polling would suggest.

Read the full story here

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    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    edited May 7
    First unlike the Tories who will be doing well to get second
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,599
    Also-ran (like Reform).

    And I read the article before posting :smile:

    Tend to agree, the only way Reform might do better would be if the Cons took a tack to the centre under a new leader and the nuttier wing went off en-masse. I don't think that's likely.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    edited May 7
    On topic, I suspect that 60% of Reform voters wont vote if at the end of the day and only 40% or so (at best) will vote Tory.

    When I put those figures into Electoral calculus alongside the headline figure it doesn’t actually help the Tories that much

  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,981
    edited May 7
    Go Fourth !!!

    Personally given the current Conservatives, I hope they do collapse.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,542
    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,959

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    Fair point. I was thinking of the 'History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes' line.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766
    I exercised all my self restraint to not use that Nigel Farage photo for this thread.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,542
    Quincel said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    Fair point. I was thinking of the 'History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes' line.
    Hah! I should also say thanks for the header - very interesting.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,679
    An over/under at 10.5% is very generous. 6% feels more likely, though even that might be a bit generous and anchored too high by the opinion polling.

    The big risk for the Tories is that these voters simply might not vote at all. This is one reason why I expect some very dirty targeted online advertising for the election campaign.

    Anyone male, of a certain age - i.e. peak PB demographic - can expect to get some very nasty anti-Labour and anti-Starmer adverts from fake campaign groups.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,949
    Quincel said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    Fair point. I was thinking of the 'History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes' line.
    On the subject of history repeating, the last word on this is - https://youtu.be/yzLT6_TQmq8?si=amRGYBsd8vEMKZ9b
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,164

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    It’s almost impossible to see an end to, or even significant reduction of, conflict in the Middle East, especially Palestine, without a truly messianic figure emerging.
    At the moment the best hope seems be a truce, with some really tough guarantors.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,335
    I almost had my own cyclegate incident yesterday. A cyclist went through a red light into a box junction completely oblivious to any other traffic.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766

    I almost had my own cyclegate incident yesterday. A cyclist went through a red light into a box junction completely oblivious to any other traffic.

    I'd ban cyclists for the simple reason nobody wants to see a man in Lycra.

    Ban this sick filth.
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,382
    edited May 7
    "Under" is an excellent bet and excellent value.

    The recent evidence from actual elections just isn't there for 10% nationwide for RefUK. They will also be squeezed pretty hard as the election narrative becomes "Stramer or Sunak for PM?"

    Lib Dems experience that too, of course, but it's balanced by the fact that there will be a reasonable number of seats where they will run a highly visible ground campaign. Lib Dems also have a decent case for a reasonable amount of broadcast coverage (they can point to actual elections, like last Thursday where they led in quite a lot of localities, as well as a string of by-elections, and it's not fanciful that they may return a reasonable number of MPs for the first time since 2010).
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    @jimsciutto

    “The people call Stormy Daniels.”
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,542
    I think Reform are different from UKIP in a fairly simple and obvious way. UKIP was a single issue campaign party - exit the EU will solve all your problems. (Bit like the SNP...) Reform don't have such a simple easy tag line. What do they want? What do they propose to do? Its not obvious. And as Quincel says, they are pulling much more from the Tories than elsewhere.

    Despite this, I don't think it matters as to the GE result. I cannot see Labour not getting a majority. It may not be the super-majority that the current polling implies, not least because the voting booth is an odd place. You may rant and rave for years online about how this time its different and you are voting Labour for the first time in your life, and yet, pencil in hand, you put the cross in the usual place...
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,542

    I almost had my own cyclegate incident yesterday. A cyclist went through a red light into a box junction completely oblivious to any other traffic.

    I'd ban cyclists for the simple reason nobody wants to see a man in Lycra.

    Ban this sick filth.
    Our director of teaching (balding, late 50's) arrives at the Uni clad in lycra. Its enough to make chap try really hard to be late to work, just in case you accidently catch a glimpse as the DoS puffs into the office.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    edited May 7

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    If only it was a farce. Its so bleak I can’t bear to think about it

    The best way of summarising the Israel/arab thing is Larkin’s line: man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf

    It’s like the Holocaust inflicted such terrible trauma on the jews of Israel they are subconsciously forced to reiterate it endlessly, cf victims of abuse who often become abusers - or extremely kinky (which is much healthier)

    Meanwhile the Palestinians are locked in their own psychohistorical nightmare, somehow and sometimes revelling in their own martyrdom, masochistically - in between bursts of brutal violence against the Jews

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,471

    I almost had my own cyclegate incident yesterday. A cyclist went through a red light into a box junction completely oblivious to any other traffic.

    I'd ban cyclists for the simple reason nobody wants to see a man in Lycra.

    Ban this sick filth.
    I am happy to go as nature intended when on my bike, in the summer anyway.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,471
    This is one of those articles that just had me WTF !!!!!

    Monkey torture videos. I am genuinely lost for words

    "The investigation exposed a global monkey torture network involving a private online group paying people in Indonesia to kill and torture baby monkeys on video.

    The BBC reported that LeGresley used the username “The Immolator” and ran a poll for members of the group on which method of torture should be inflicted upon an infant monkey."

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/british-woman-admits-role-in-global-monkey-torture-network/ar-BB1lYi3y?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=a70c3f3c4244464edbfad5d9a0ae3f6c&ei=8
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,766
    On topic, I agree with Pip.
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    AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 195
    An interesting article from Quincel. On a similar point (UKIP drawing support from all parties, not just the Tories) I wonder if any work has been done on UKIP/Lib Dem switchers? I expect that many West Country voters went from Lib Dem to UKIP since 2015, partly out of belief and partly because UKIP had become a better protest vehicle. Has the tide moved back again, with UKIP/Reformists now going back to the Lib Dems as the best way to unseat the Tories? I wouldn't want to put to much weight on it as a theory, because the numbers are so small, but if there's any truth in it then it will be doubly bad for the Conservatives in some areas.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,700
    Leon said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    If only it was a farce. Its so bleak I can’t bear to think about it

    The best way of summarising the Israel/arab thing is Larkin’s line: man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf

    It’s like the Holocaust inflicted such terrible trauma on the jews of Israel they are subconsciously forced to reiterate it endlessly, cf victims of abuse who often become abusers - or extremely kinky (which is much healthier)

    Meanwhile the Palestinians are locked in their own psychohistorical nightmare, somehow and sometimes revelling in their own martyrdom, masochistically - in between bursts of brutal violence against the Jews

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them
    There is a metaphysical argument that it is their fear of the holocaust that is leading them to a situation where another one could take place.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Yes, and look at London. They put up a full slate of candidates against the Conservatives, and the list vote, elected by PR, is tailor-made for a party without much organisation on the ground.

    At constituency level, they won 7.4%, to 27.2% for the Conservatives.

    At list level, the respective figures were 5.9% to 26.5%. They took one seat, to the Conservatives' 8. Their only likely impact was to stop the Conservatives from gaining Ealing/Hillingdon constituency.

    In what amounted to a forced choice, between Con and Lab for the Mayoralty, their vote dropped to 2.5%, and the Conservatives' rose to 32.8%.
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    OllyOlly Posts: 42
    Leon said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    If only it was a farce. Its so bleak I can’t bear to think about it

    The best way of summarising the Israel/arab thing is Larkin’s line: man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf

    It’s like the Holocaust inflicted such terrible trauma on the jews of Israel they are subconsciously forced to reiterate it endlessly, cf victims of abuse who often become abusers - or extremely kinky (which is much healthier)

    Meanwhile the Palestinians are locked in their own psychohistorical nightmare, somehow and sometimes revelling in their own martyrdom, masochistically - in between bursts of brutal violence against the Jews

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them
    The holocaust is 80 years ago now. For most young people its ancient history. Many dont even believe it happened.
    Powerful words here.
    Rafah is completely blocked, israel won’t allow anything to enter, no humanitarian aid, no doctors, no help. Yet the idf are bombing us right now. THERE IS NOTHING WE CAN DO 💔NOWHERE WE CAN GO 💔

    @WizardBisan1
    #EyesOnRafah

    https://x.com/SemiticRia/status/1787640134008975631
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848

    Leon said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    If only it was a farce. Its so bleak I can’t bear to think about it

    The best way of summarising the Israel/arab thing is Larkin’s line: man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf

    It’s like the Holocaust inflicted such terrible trauma on the jews of Israel they are subconsciously forced to reiterate it endlessly, cf victims of abuse who often become abusers - or extremely kinky (which is much healthier)

    Meanwhile the Palestinians are locked in their own psychohistorical nightmare, somehow and sometimes revelling in their own martyrdom, masochistically - in between bursts of brutal violence against the Jews

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them
    There is a metaphysical argument that it is their fear of the holocaust that is leading them to a situation where another one could take place.
    Yes. The Holocaust is the looming ancestral spectre in this family nightmare
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,679

    I almost had my own cyclegate incident yesterday. A cyclist went through a red light into a box junction completely oblivious to any other traffic.

    I was driving into the city yesterday, and two cars travelling in the opposite direction went past a cyclist on their side of the road. One pulled well over onto my side, forcing me to brake suddenly, and the other avoided doing so by giving the cyclist minimal clearance.

    It feels like I witness a near-miss every day I drive.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,297

    There are bad cyclists and there are bad drivers.

    London and other cities should be making it safer for people to cycle, use buses and to reduce the use of cars. You do not need to own a car in London.

    There are large parts of Greater London, where you do need to own a car.

    A lot of people who live 100 yards from a Zone 2 station might not think so, but it’s true.
    I think the word is "preferable" rather than "need": the proliferation of easy vehicle rental by the hour, app based taxi services, easy access to live displays of public transport times, segregated bike lines and Internet delivery means that a smaller proportion of the population than ever before is completely dependent on their cars.

    When we lived in London (on the borders of zones two and three and a good 15 minutes walk to the nearest tube), we needed a car. If we were to move back there today, we wouldn't need one. We might still get one... But I think we'd probably try without first.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Taz said:

    This is one of those articles that just had me WTF !!!!!

    Monkey torture videos. I am genuinely lost for words

    "The investigation exposed a global monkey torture network involving a private online group paying people in Indonesia to kill and torture baby monkeys on video.

    The BBC reported that LeGresley used the username “The Immolator” and ran a poll for members of the group on which method of torture should be inflicted upon an infant monkey."

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/british-woman-admits-role-in-global-monkey-torture-network/ar-BB1lYi3y?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=a70c3f3c4244464edbfad5d9a0ae3f6c&ei=8

    A certain minority of every population are complete scum. That's where you get people like Beria and Dirlewanger from.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    edited May 7
    Leon said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    If only it was a farce. Its so bleak I can’t bear to think about it

    The best way of summarising the Israel/arab thing is Larkin’s line: man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf

    It’s like the Holocaust inflicted such terrible trauma on the jews of Israel they are subconsciously forced to reiterate it endlessly, cf victims of abuse who often become abusers - or extremely kinky (which is much healthier)

    Meanwhile the Palestinians are locked in their own psychohistorical nightmare, somehow and sometimes revelling in their own martyrdom, masochistically - in between bursts of brutal violence against the Jews

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them
    "Ah now there you mistake me.
    Shame I do feel.
    And I know there is something all wrong about me—
    believe me. Sometimes I shock myself.
    But there is a reason: you.
    You never let up this one same pressure of hatred on my life:
    I am the shape you made me.
    Filth teaches filth."
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,679
    Leon said:

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them

    If we manage to complete the energy transition away from fossil fuels then we might well find out. The Middle East would mean no more to most of the rest of the world than remote corners of Africa do now.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,297

    Leon said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    If only it was a farce. Its so bleak I can’t bear to think about it

    The best way of summarising the Israel/arab thing is Larkin’s line: man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf

    It’s like the Holocaust inflicted such terrible trauma on the jews of Israel they are subconsciously forced to reiterate it endlessly, cf victims of abuse who often become abusers - or extremely kinky (which is much healthier)

    Meanwhile the Palestinians are locked in their own psychohistorical nightmare, somehow and sometimes revelling in their own martyrdom, masochistically - in between bursts of brutal violence against the Jews

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them
    There is a metaphysical argument that it is their fear of the holocaust that is leading them to a situation where another one could take place.
    That is an extremely preceptive observation.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,226
    @Quincel is back! Yay!
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,164
    Olly said:

    Leon said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    If only it was a farce. Its so bleak I can’t bear to think about it

    The best way of summarising the Israel/arab thing is Larkin’s line: man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf

    It’s like the Holocaust inflicted such terrible trauma on the jews of Israel they are subconsciously forced to reiterate it endlessly, cf victims of abuse who often become abusers - or extremely kinky (which is much healthier)

    Meanwhile the Palestinians are locked in their own psychohistorical nightmare, somehow and sometimes revelling in their own martyrdom, masochistically - in between bursts of brutal violence against the Jews

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them
    The holocaust is 80 years ago now. For most young people its ancient history. Many dont even believe it happened.
    Powerful words here.
    Rafah is completely blocked, israel won’t allow anything to enter, no humanitarian aid, no doctors, no help. Yet the idf are bombing us right now. THERE IS NOTHING WE CAN DO 💔NOWHERE WE CAN GO 💔

    @WizardBisan1
    #EyesOnRafah

    https://x.com/SemiticRia/status/1787640134008975631
    It doesn’t seem relevant perhaps, but I wonder how many votes Israel’s entry in the Eurovision Song Contest will get.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,297
    Scott_xP said:

    @jimsciutto

    “The people call Stormy Daniels.”

    What do they call her?
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162

    Olly said:

    Leon said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    If only it was a farce. Its so bleak I can’t bear to think about it

    The best way of summarising the Israel/arab thing is Larkin’s line: man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf

    It’s like the Holocaust inflicted such terrible trauma on the jews of Israel they are subconsciously forced to reiterate it endlessly, cf victims of abuse who often become abusers - or extremely kinky (which is much healthier)

    Meanwhile the Palestinians are locked in their own psychohistorical nightmare, somehow and sometimes revelling in their own martyrdom, masochistically - in between bursts of brutal violence against the Jews

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them
    The holocaust is 80 years ago now. For most young people its ancient history. Many dont even believe it happened.
    Powerful words here.
    Rafah is completely blocked, israel won’t allow anything to enter, no humanitarian aid, no doctors, no help. Yet the idf are bombing us right now. THERE IS NOTHING WE CAN DO 💔NOWHERE WE CAN GO 💔

    @WizardBisan1
    #EyesOnRafah

    https://x.com/SemiticRia/status/1787640134008975631
    It doesn’t seem relevant perhaps, but I wonder how many votes Israel’s entry in the Eurovision Song Contest will get.
    Shirley it depends on the quality of the entry?

    😂😂😂
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,154
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    If only it was a farce. Its so bleak I can’t bear to think about it

    The best way of summarising the Israel/arab thing is Larkin’s line: man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf

    It’s like the Holocaust inflicted such terrible trauma on the jews of Israel they are subconsciously forced to reiterate it endlessly, cf victims of abuse who often become abusers - or extremely kinky (which is much healthier)

    Meanwhile the Palestinians are locked in their own psychohistorical nightmare, somehow and sometimes revelling in their own martyrdom, masochistically - in between bursts of brutal violence against the Jews

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them
    There is a metaphysical argument that it is their fear of the holocaust that is leading them to a situation where another one could take place.
    Yes. The Holocaust is the looming ancestral spectre in this family nightmare
    And the crusades, and the Islamic invasion of a land that was Jewish before Islam existed. You would think the so called Holy Land would get a bit more luck from one of the gods.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    @paulwaugh
    Labour MPs (who are in the Urgent Question in big numbers) make clear how appalled they are as Suella Braverman says it's right that Israel "finishes the job".

    "Disgusting" heckles one MP.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,700
    edited May 7
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    If only it was a farce. Its so bleak I can’t bear to think about it

    The best way of summarising the Israel/arab thing is Larkin’s line: man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf

    It’s like the Holocaust inflicted such terrible trauma on the jews of Israel they are subconsciously forced to reiterate it endlessly, cf victims of abuse who often become abusers - or extremely kinky (which is much healthier)

    Meanwhile the Palestinians are locked in their own psychohistorical nightmare, somehow and sometimes revelling in their own martyrdom, masochistically - in between bursts of brutal violence against the Jews

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them
    There is a metaphysical argument that it is their fear of the holocaust that is leading them to a situation where another one could take place.
    Yes. The Holocaust is the looming ancestral spectre in this family nightmare
    And if Israel were, collectively, to prioritise the higher concerns of what sort of nation they want to be, to their region, and the wider world, this metaphysical argument would contend that holocausts past and future would be rendered a diminishing echo. But focus manically on surviving holocausts, and you'll be given holocausts to survive.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,297

    Leon said:

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them

    If we manage to complete the energy transition away from fossil fuels then we might well find out. The Middle East would mean no more to most of the rest of the world than remote corners of Africa do now.
    There's an excellent article in the NYT today about how cheap battery storage is transforming California's grid.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,542

    Olly said:

    Leon said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    If only it was a farce. Its so bleak I can’t bear to think about it

    The best way of summarising the Israel/arab thing is Larkin’s line: man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf

    It’s like the Holocaust inflicted such terrible trauma on the jews of Israel they are subconsciously forced to reiterate it endlessly, cf victims of abuse who often become abusers - or extremely kinky (which is much healthier)

    Meanwhile the Palestinians are locked in their own psychohistorical nightmare, somehow and sometimes revelling in their own martyrdom, masochistically - in between bursts of brutal violence against the Jews

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them
    The holocaust is 80 years ago now. For most young people its ancient history. Many dont even believe it happened.
    Powerful words here.
    Rafah is completely blocked, israel won’t allow anything to enter, no humanitarian aid, no doctors, no help. Yet the idf are bombing us right now. THERE IS NOTHING WE CAN DO 💔NOWHERE WE CAN GO 💔

    @WizardBisan1
    #EyesOnRafah

    https://x.com/SemiticRia/status/1787640134008975631
    It doesn’t seem relevant perhaps, but I wonder how many votes Israel’s entry in the Eurovision Song Contest will get.
    Cynically I'd say more than the UK, because 2022 besides, we have been awful for years at the Contest!
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 270
    Quincel said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    Fair point. I was thinking of the 'History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes' line.
    Either Marx or Engels has the tragedy then farce line referring to Napoleon vs Napoleon the third. Mark Twain then said it doesn't repeat but sometimes it rhymes. Mind you I am sure if you Google it these will all turn out to be misattributed.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848
    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    This is one of those articles that just had me WTF !!!!!

    Monkey torture videos. I am genuinely lost for words

    "The investigation exposed a global monkey torture network involving a private online group paying people in Indonesia to kill and torture baby monkeys on video.

    The BBC reported that LeGresley used the username “The Immolator” and ran a poll for members of the group on which method of torture should be inflicted upon an infant monkey."

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/british-woman-admits-role-in-global-monkey-torture-network/ar-BB1lYi3y?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=a70c3f3c4244464edbfad5d9a0ae3f6c&ei=8

    A certain minority of every population are complete scum. That's where you get people like Beria and Dirlewanger from.
    What a grotesque story. Maybe it’s good humanity is dying out
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,645

    On topic, I agree with Pip.

    Me too.

    FWIW, in this patch of the West Midlands the mayoral Reform campaign was almost non-existent, and they didn't even put up candidates in the council elections. The only thing of note that they did was to a bit of counterproductive fly posting that seemed to show that they were running as the litter lout party. That and a page in the mayoral election booklet circulated with details of all 6 candidates. If they can only gain 6% despite running against a centrist Tory candidate in an area that should have favorable demographics for them, and in an election offering an opportunity for a big anti-Tory protest vote, it doesn't bode well for their prospects.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,542
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    This is one of those articles that just had me WTF !!!!!

    Monkey torture videos. I am genuinely lost for words

    "The investigation exposed a global monkey torture network involving a private online group paying people in Indonesia to kill and torture baby monkeys on video.

    The BBC reported that LeGresley used the username “The Immolator” and ran a poll for members of the group on which method of torture should be inflicted upon an infant monkey."

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/british-woman-admits-role-in-global-monkey-torture-network/ar-BB1lYi3y?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=a70c3f3c4244464edbfad5d9a0ae3f6c&ei=8

    A certain minority of every population are complete scum. That's where you get people like Beria and Dirlewanger from.
    What a grotesque story. Maybe it’s good humanity is dying out
    It is? Not obviously so yet.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,679
    edited May 7
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them

    If we manage to complete the energy transition away from fossil fuels then we might well find out. The Middle East would mean no more to most of the rest of the world than remote corners of Africa do now.
    There's an excellent article in the NYT today about how cheap battery storage is transforming California's grid.
    Yes. That's really interesting. I love that you can see the effect of the solar eclipse in one of the charts.

    I had no idea they had so much battery storage capacity installed.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848

    Leon said:

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them

    If we manage to complete the energy transition away from fossil fuels then we might well find out. The Middle East would mean no more to most of the rest of the world than remote corners of Africa do now.
    I genuinely believe it would be better for the world - and for the Israelis and Palestinians - if we gave them much LESS attention. I am not belittling the horror unfolding there - but they do sometimes remind me of children acting out, or attention seeking (and I should know about attention seeking). The Palestinians thrust their wounds at us, their mutilated families, and loudly demand that we pity them (and we do), the Israelis get to feel they are the centre of the world, a kind of chosen people with exceptional rights, especially in the face of such global anti Semitism (and it exists)

    We should turn away and lock the door and turn on some music to drown out the tantrum and maybe then it might just dwindle away. Worth a go anyway. Nothing else seems to work
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,949
    edited May 7

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them

    If we manage to complete the energy transition away from fossil fuels then we might well find out. The Middle East would mean no more to most of the rest of the world than remote corners of Africa do now.
    There's an excellent article in the NYT today about how cheap battery storage is transforming California's grid.
    Yes. That's really interesting. I love that you can see the effect of the solar eclipse in one of the charts.

    I had no idea they had so much battery storage capacity installed.
    An increasing chunk is from a scheme where you can rent capacity on your home storage battery to the power companies for grid stabilisation.

    Edit: as I’ve pointed out here, a few times, batteries can be small scale enough to evade the must-have-a-decade-of-planning-approval stuff. Not much they can do to stop you parking some containers on your land. So even though other technologies might be better, batteries win on the basis of “can do. Now”
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,164
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    If only it was a farce. Its so bleak I can’t bear to think about it

    The best way of summarising the Israel/arab thing is Larkin’s line: man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf

    It’s like the Holocaust inflicted such terrible trauma on the jews of Israel they are subconsciously forced to reiterate it endlessly, cf victims of abuse who often become abusers - or extremely kinky (which is much healthier)

    Meanwhile the Palestinians are locked in their own psychohistorical nightmare, somehow and sometimes revelling in their own martyrdom, masochistically - in between bursts of brutal violence against the Jews

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them
    There is a metaphysical argument that it is their fear of the holocaust that is leading them to a situation where another one could take place.
    Yes. The Holocaust is the looming ancestral spectre in this family nightmare
    And the crusades, and the Islamic invasion of a land that was Jewish before Islam existed. You would think the so called Holy Land would get a bit more luck from one of the gods.
    I often ….. well, sometimes …… wonder how many Palestinians could, if the possibility existed, trace their ancestry back to residents of Israel in Biblical times. And therefore would have been, then, Jews, who converted, or were converted, to Christianity or Islam.
    Whereas, as I understand it, one can be accepted as an Israeli with 25% traceable Jewish ancestry.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,848

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    This is one of those articles that just had me WTF !!!!!

    Monkey torture videos. I am genuinely lost for words

    "The investigation exposed a global monkey torture network involving a private online group paying people in Indonesia to kill and torture baby monkeys on video.

    The BBC reported that LeGresley used the username “The Immolator” and ran a poll for members of the group on which method of torture should be inflicted upon an infant monkey."

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/british-woman-admits-role-in-global-monkey-torture-network/ar-BB1lYi3y?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=a70c3f3c4244464edbfad5d9a0ae3f6c&ei=8

    A certain minority of every population are complete scum. That's where you get people like Beria and Dirlewanger from.
    What a grotesque story. Maybe it’s good humanity is dying out
    It is? Not obviously so yet.
    Birthrates are collapsing worldwide. Quite astonishingly fast in some places
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,700
    Scott_xP said:

    @paulwaugh
    Labour MPs (who are in the Urgent Question in big numbers) make clear how appalled they are as Suella Braverman says it's right that Israel "finishes the job".

    "Disgusting" heckles one MP.

    Where Suella may be making her mistake, is on what job it is that many within the Israeli Government want to do. If their job were the defeat, or even the extermination, of all armed Hamas combatants, with proportionate (it could never be zero) destruction and civilian casualties, she would have a very strong argument. It would be crazy to stop before it were done - as crazy as stopping a course of medication before an infection is dealt with.

    However, it looks to me (and I'm open to being shown to be wrong) that the job isn't defeating Hamas with proportionate destruction and civilian casualities, it is destruction and civilian casualties, with proportionate defeat of Hamas. Perhaps I'm wrong, and Israel and Suella are correct.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    According to the official, there are four aspects of the proposal that Hamas has agreed to which Israel takes issue with:

    The document refers to the end of the war, described as a permanent ceasefire, according to the official

    They believe it would see female soldiers released too late in the process

    They say the document references a contingency that if 33 living hostages cannot be found for the first
    phase, then bodies can be substituted instead, which the Israeli official said is unacceptable

    Israel believes it would obliged to release an agreed number of prisoners from a list that Hamas will provide, with no power of veto for any individual case

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68963839

    Israel are completely and utterly out of control.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    The problem with Pip's ptherwise very convincing analysis is that it doesn't allow for the possibility of Farage jumping in, which IMO would transform the position, though quite how is not yet clear.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,315

    According to the official, there are four aspects of the proposal that Hamas has agreed to which Israel takes issue with:

    The document refers to the end of the war, described as a permanent ceasefire, according to the official

    They believe it would see female soldiers released too late in the process

    They say the document references a contingency that if 33 living hostages cannot be found for the first
    phase, then bodies can be substituted instead, which the Israeli official said is unacceptable

    Israel believes it would obliged to release an agreed number of prisoners from a list that Hamas will provide, with no power of veto for any individual case

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68963839

    Israel are completely and utterly out of control.

    Why? Those seem reasonable issues to raise with Hamas's plan.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,700

    Leon said:

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them

    If we manage to complete the energy transition away from fossil fuels then we might well find out. The Middle East would mean no more to most of the rest of the world than remote corners of Africa do now.
    I don't think that's a realistic short and medium term goal - but a realistic medium term goal is to be energy independent, and then an energy exporter, with a growing proportion of or energy needs met from renewable sources.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,959

    The problem with Pip's ptherwise very convincing analysis is that it doesn't allow for the possibility of Farage jumping in, which IMO would transform the position, though quite how is not yet clear.

    This is fair. I also slightly implicitly assume that we are at or near RefUK's polling peak (on the basis they will be squeezed nearer the election and we are months only away from that). Maybe their polling rises to 20% in which case even if they were squeezed you'd expect double digits.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1787839351390384289?s=19

    Lmao, you have to imagine Chris Webb would prefer it if his first day at work wasn't being described like School Prize Day with his Mum and Dad watching
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 823
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them

    If we manage to complete the energy transition away from fossil fuels then we might well find out. The Middle East would mean no more to most of the rest of the world than remote corners of Africa do now.
    There's an excellent article in the NYT today about how cheap battery storage is transforming California's grid.
    California's incredibly lucky with solar availability which makes storage, even with current battery tech, a no-brainer. They only need something like 3-4 more years of building out storage capacity at the current rate before they can eliminate routine fossil fuel use altogether.

    It's just after 8am, and solar is already producing well over half of California's electricity: https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,164

    https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1787839351390384289?s=19

    Lmao, you have to imagine Chris Webb would prefer it if his first day at work wasn't being described like School Prize Day with his Mum and Dad watching

    Grannie and Grandpa, surely, given that he and his wife have a fairly new baby.!
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,542
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    This is one of those articles that just had me WTF !!!!!

    Monkey torture videos. I am genuinely lost for words

    "The investigation exposed a global monkey torture network involving a private online group paying people in Indonesia to kill and torture baby monkeys on video.

    The BBC reported that LeGresley used the username “The Immolator” and ran a poll for members of the group on which method of torture should be inflicted upon an infant monkey."

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/british-woman-admits-role-in-global-monkey-torture-network/ar-BB1lYi3y?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=a70c3f3c4244464edbfad5d9a0ae3f6c&ei=8

    A certain minority of every population are complete scum. That's where you get people like Beria and Dirlewanger from.
    What a grotesque story. Maybe it’s good humanity is dying out
    It is? Not obviously so yet.
    Birthrates are collapsing worldwide. Quite astonishingly fast in some places
    Which is not the same as saying humanity is dying out. The western lifestyle and the general need and desire for women to have careers, and thus delay or choose not to have children is clearly an issue. But the best thing for the planet is fewer humans, so its not all bad. If population decline became a global thing and became an issue you can imagine that society would adapt - it would pay people to have more children (unlike the UK situation now).
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593

    The problem with Pip's ptherwise very convincing analysis is that it doesn't allow for the possibility of Farage jumping in, which IMO would transform the position, though quite how is not yet clear.

    Farage wants to jump in when jumping in might see success. He knows Reform are on for a row of ducks this time round.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,535

    I exercised all my self restraint to not use that Nigel Farage photo for this thread.

    Thank god. It genuinely upsets me.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,471
    Scott_xP said:

    @paulwaugh
    Labour MPs (who are in the Urgent Question in big numbers) make clear how appalled they are as Suella Braverman says it's right that Israel "finishes the job".

    "Disgusting" heckles one MP.

    Lol

    Those local election results and the support the labour movement lost due to their previous position on the conflict have really focussed their minds.

  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,700
    edited May 7
    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them

    If we manage to complete the energy transition away from fossil fuels then we might well find out. The Middle East would mean no more to most of the rest of the world than remote corners of Africa do now.
    There's an excellent article in the NYT today about how cheap battery storage is transforming California's grid.
    California's incredibly lucky with solar availability which makes storage, even with current battery tech, a no-brainer. They only need something like 3-4 more years of building out storage capacity at the current rate before they can eliminate routine fossil fuel use altogether.

    It's just after 8am, and solar is already producing well over half of California's electricity: https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html

    I don't think it's particularly lucky - it's selecting the obvious renewable horse to back.

    California has loads of reliable sunshine, so they've selected solar.

    Britain has masses of reliable tidal ranges, and intermittent and not particular blistering sunshine so we've selected... Solar. And wind.

    I haven't invented a 'where there's muck there's brass' aphorism for it, but basically, when something in public policy could be called out by an 8 year old as not making sense, it means someone's making an awful lot of money.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    edited May 7

    https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1787839351390384289?s=19

    Lmao, you have to imagine Chris Webb would prefer it if his first day at work wasn't being described like School Prize Day with his Mum and Dad watching

    Grannie and Grandpa, surely, given that he and his wife have a fairly new baby.!
    I'm not sure Keir and Ange (or Rachael who is maybe stepmother here) will like being cast as crinklies
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,542
    edited May 7

    According to the official, there are four aspects of the proposal that Hamas has agreed to which Israel takes issue with:

    The document refers to the end of the war, described as a permanent ceasefire, according to the official

    They believe it would see female soldiers released too late in the process

    They say the document references a contingency that if 33 living hostages cannot be found for the first
    phase, then bodies can be substituted instead, which the Israeli official said is unacceptable

    Israel believes it would obliged to release an agreed number of prisoners from a list that Hamas will provide, with no power of veto for any individual case

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68963839

    Israel are completely and utterly out of control.

    "They say the document references a contingency that if 33 living hostages cannot be found for the first
    phase, then bodies can be substituted instead
    , which the Israeli official said is unacceptable" is rather worrying. Do Hamas not know if they are dead or alive? Or are they intending to kill them as a last gasp of revenge, sanctioned by the option of providing bodies?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,535
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    This is one of those articles that just had me WTF !!!!!

    Monkey torture videos. I am genuinely lost for words

    "The investigation exposed a global monkey torture network involving a private online group paying people in Indonesia to kill and torture baby monkeys on video.

    The BBC reported that LeGresley used the username “The Immolator” and ran a poll for members of the group on which method of torture should be inflicted upon an infant monkey."

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/british-woman-admits-role-in-global-monkey-torture-network/ar-BB1lYi3y?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=a70c3f3c4244464edbfad5d9a0ae3f6c&ei=8

    A certain minority of every population are complete scum. That's where you get people like Beria and Dirlewanger from.
    What a grotesque story. Maybe it’s good humanity is dying out
    It is? Not obviously so yet.
    Birthrates are collapsing worldwide. Quite astonishingly fast in some places
    Women are wising up.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,471

    Olly said:

    Leon said:

    I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".

    See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.

    If only it was a farce. Its so bleak I can’t bear to think about it

    The best way of summarising the Israel/arab thing is Larkin’s line: man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf

    It’s like the Holocaust inflicted such terrible trauma on the jews of Israel they are subconsciously forced to reiterate it endlessly, cf victims of abuse who often become abusers - or extremely kinky (which is much healthier)

    Meanwhile the Palestinians are locked in their own psychohistorical nightmare, somehow and sometimes revelling in their own martyrdom, masochistically - in between bursts of brutal violence against the Jews

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them
    The holocaust is 80 years ago now. For most young people its ancient history. Many dont even believe it happened.
    Powerful words here.
    Rafah is completely blocked, israel won’t allow anything to enter, no humanitarian aid, no doctors, no help. Yet the idf are bombing us right now. THERE IS NOTHING WE CAN DO 💔NOWHERE WE CAN GO 💔

    @WizardBisan1
    #EyesOnRafah

    https://x.com/SemiticRia/status/1787640134008975631
    It doesn’t seem relevant perhaps, but I wonder how many votes Israel’s entry in the Eurovision Song Contest will get.
    I expect them to come bottom. They will probably get a few less than our entry.

  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,471
    kinabalu said:

    I exercised all my self restraint to not use that Nigel Farage photo for this thread.

    Thank god. It genuinely upsets me.
    What picture is it. Just describe it, that will be fine.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,315

    According to the official, there are four aspects of the proposal that Hamas has agreed to which Israel takes issue with:

    The document refers to the end of the war, described as a permanent ceasefire, according to the official

    They believe it would see female soldiers released too late in the process

    They say the document references a contingency that if 33 living hostages cannot be found for the first
    phase, then bodies can be substituted instead, which the Israeli official said is unacceptable

    Israel believes it would obliged to release an agreed number of prisoners from a list that Hamas will provide, with no power of veto for any individual case

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68963839

    Israel are completely and utterly out of control.

    "They say the document references a contingency that if 33 living hostages cannot be found for the first
    phase, then bodies can be substituted instead
    , which the Israeli official said is unacceptable" is rather worrying. Do Hamas not know if they are dead or alive? Or are they intending to kill them as a last gasp of revenge, sanctioned by the option of providing bodies?
    They insinuate the former; their wording would 'allow' the latter.

    I'd expect even the pro-Palestinian contingent on here to raise an eyebrow at that one.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,679

    Scott_xP said:

    @paulwaugh
    Labour MPs (who are in the Urgent Question in big numbers) make clear how appalled they are as Suella Braverman says it's right that Israel "finishes the job".

    "Disgusting" heckles one MP.

    Where Suella may be making her mistake, is on what job it is that many within the Israeli Government want to do. If their job were the defeat, or even the extermination, of all armed Hamas combatants, with proportionate (it could never be zero) destruction and civilian casualties, she would have a very strong argument. It would be crazy to stop before it were done - as crazy as stopping a course of medication before an infection is dealt with.

    However, it looks to me (and I'm open to being shown to be wrong) that the job isn't defeating Hamas with proportionate destruction and civilian casualities, it is destruction and civilian casualties, with proportionate defeat of Hamas. Perhaps I'm wrong, and Israel and Suella are correct.
    I think what you're trying to do is to make a conclusion about someone's motivation, and that's very hard to do.

    What I think we can do is to judge Israel's actions against what we think a reasonable campaign to destroy Hamas, without disproportionate civilian casualties, would look like. I think you can judge that Israel is falling short of its duty to minimise civilian casualties and to provide for civilians in areas where it has defeated Hamas.

    Since Israel appears unwilling or unable to take remedial action for these failings, then I think the question of whether it is Israel's intent to cause this suffering is moot. I was willing to cut Israel a lot of slack on the assumption that, as a democracy, they would hold themselves to higher standards as they took reasonable steps to defend themselves.

    I was clearly mistaken in the confidence I placed in Israel and its institutions.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317
    @PeterKellner1

    Rishi Sunak says last week's elections show we are on course for a hung parliament. My blog for @prospect_uk gives five reasons why he's wrong. One of them includes fresh evidence of the power of anti-Conservative tactical voting.


  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @paulwaugh
    Labour MPs (who are in the Urgent Question in big numbers) make clear how appalled they are as Suella Braverman says it's right that Israel "finishes the job".

    "Disgusting" heckles one MP.

    Lol

    Those local election results and the support the labour movement lost due to their previous position on the conflict have really focussed their minds.

    They can full pivot and sack all those not voting for a ceasefire. They have that right.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,535

    According to the official, there are four aspects of the proposal that Hamas has agreed to which Israel takes issue with:

    The document refers to the end of the war, described as a permanent ceasefire, according to the official

    They believe it would see female soldiers released too late in the process

    They say the document references a contingency that if 33 living hostages cannot be found for the first
    phase, then bodies can be substituted instead, which the Israeli official said is unacceptable

    Israel believes it would obliged to release an agreed number of prisoners from a list that Hamas will provide, with no power of veto for any individual case

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68963839

    Israel are completely and utterly out of control.

    Yes. But it's Netanyahu not Israel. Just like it's Putin not Russia. There's such a disconnect between the interests of countries ruled by warmongering leaders and the interests of those leaders.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,315

    Scott_xP said:

    @paulwaugh
    Labour MPs (who are in the Urgent Question in big numbers) make clear how appalled they are as Suella Braverman says it's right that Israel "finishes the job".

    "Disgusting" heckles one MP.

    Where Suella may be making her mistake, is on what job it is that many within the Israeli Government want to do. If their job were the defeat, or even the extermination, of all armed Hamas combatants, with proportionate (it could never be zero) destruction and civilian casualties, she would have a very strong argument. It would be crazy to stop before it were done - as crazy as stopping a course of medication before an infection is dealt with.

    However, it looks to me (and I'm open to being shown to be wrong) that the job isn't defeating Hamas with proportionate destruction and civilian casualities, it is destruction and civilian casualties, with proportionate defeat of Hamas. Perhaps I'm wrong, and Israel and Suella are correct.
    I think what you're trying to do is to make a conclusion about someone's motivation, and that's very hard to do.

    What I think we can do is to judge Israel's actions against what we think a reasonable campaign to destroy Hamas, without disproportionate civilian casualties, would look like. I think you can judge that Israel is falling short of its duty to minimise civilian casualties and to provide for civilians in areas where it has defeated Hamas.

    Since Israel appears unwilling or unable to take remedial action for these failings, then I think the question of whether it is Israel's intent to cause this suffering is moot. I was willing to cut Israel a lot of slack on the assumption that, as a democracy, they would hold themselves to higher standards as they took reasonable steps to defend themselves.

    I was clearly mistaken in the confidence I placed in Israel and its institutions.
    So wat do you think a reasonable campaign to destroy Hamas, without disproportionate civilian casualties, would look like ?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,297

    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them

    If we manage to complete the energy transition away from fossil fuels then we might well find out. The Middle East would mean no more to most of the rest of the world than remote corners of Africa do now.
    There's an excellent article in the NYT today about how cheap battery storage is transforming California's grid.
    California's incredibly lucky with solar availability which makes storage, even with current battery tech, a no-brainer. They only need something like 3-4 more years of building out storage capacity at the current rate before they can eliminate routine fossil fuel use altogether.

    It's just after 8am, and solar is already producing well over half of California's electricity: https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html

    I don't think it's particularly lucky - it's selecting the obvious renewable horse to back.

    California has loads of reliable sunshine, so they've selected solar.

    Britain has masses of reliable tidal ranges, and intermittent and not particular blistering sunshine so we've selected... Solar. And wind.

    I haven't invented a 'where there's muck there's brass' aphorism for it, but basically, when something in public policy could be called out by an 8 year old as not making sense, it means someone's making an awful lot of money.
    Solar has become staggeringly cheap, though. I read a story about someone using panels as building materials for a wall, because it cost no more than using more traditional components.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,461
    RefUK underperformed because they didn't run a lot of candidates.

    At the GE they will have a full slate of candidates
    At the GE they will have Nigel Farage

    It is hopium is the Tories think they can simply project last week's result forward
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    rcs1000 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them

    If we manage to complete the energy transition away from fossil fuels then we might well find out. The Middle East would mean no more to most of the rest of the world than remote corners of Africa do now.
    There's an excellent article in the NYT today about how cheap battery storage is transforming California's grid.
    California's incredibly lucky with solar availability which makes storage, even with current battery tech, a no-brainer. They only need something like 3-4 more years of building out storage capacity at the current rate before they can eliminate routine fossil fuel use altogether.

    It's just after 8am, and solar is already producing well over half of California's electricity: https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html

    I don't think it's particularly lucky - it's selecting the obvious renewable horse to back.

    California has loads of reliable sunshine, so they've selected solar.

    Britain has masses of reliable tidal ranges, and intermittent and not particular blistering sunshine so we've selected... Solar. And wind.

    I haven't invented a 'where there's muck there's brass' aphorism for it, but basically, when something in public policy could be called out by an 8 year old as not making sense, it means someone's making an awful lot of money.
    Solar has become staggeringly cheap, though. I read a story about someone using panels as building materials for a wall, because it cost no more than using more traditional components.
    You can do roof tile solar too, and solar blinds. Perfectly possible to get yourself fully off grid if you have a wodge to outlay up front, especially if building from scratch.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,317

    RefUK underperformed because they didn't run a lot of candidates.

    At the GE they will have a full slate of candidates
    At the GE they will have Nigel Farage

    It is hopium is the Tories think they can simply project last week's result forward

    The Tory MP who proposed standing on a joint ticket apparently has a RefUK candidate in her constituency...
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,700

    Scott_xP said:

    @paulwaugh
    Labour MPs (who are in the Urgent Question in big numbers) make clear how appalled they are as Suella Braverman says it's right that Israel "finishes the job".

    "Disgusting" heckles one MP.

    Where Suella may be making her mistake, is on what job it is that many within the Israeli Government want to do. If their job were the defeat, or even the extermination, of all armed Hamas combatants, with proportionate (it could never be zero) destruction and civilian casualties, she would have a very strong argument. It would be crazy to stop before it were done - as crazy as stopping a course of medication before an infection is dealt with.

    However, it looks to me (and I'm open to being shown to be wrong) that the job isn't defeating Hamas with proportionate destruction and civilian casualities, it is destruction and civilian casualties, with proportionate defeat of Hamas. Perhaps I'm wrong, and Israel and Suella are correct.
    I think what you're trying to do is to make a conclusion about someone's motivation, and that's very hard to do.

    What I think we can do is to judge Israel's actions against what we think a reasonable campaign to destroy Hamas, without disproportionate civilian casualties, would look like. I think you can judge that Israel is falling short of its duty to minimise civilian casualties and to provide for civilians in areas where it has defeated Hamas.

    Since Israel appears unwilling or unable to take remedial action for these failings, then I think the question of whether it is Israel's intent to cause this suffering is moot. I was willing to cut Israel a lot of slack on the assumption that, as a democracy, they would hold themselves to higher standards as they took reasonable steps to defend themselves.

    I was clearly mistaken in the confidence I placed in Israel and its institutions.
    You're right - it's important to stick to facts, not draw conclusions about motives.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,679

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    This is one of those articles that just had me WTF !!!!!

    Monkey torture videos. I am genuinely lost for words

    "The investigation exposed a global monkey torture network involving a private online group paying people in Indonesia to kill and torture baby monkeys on video.

    The BBC reported that LeGresley used the username “The Immolator” and ran a poll for members of the group on which method of torture should be inflicted upon an infant monkey."

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/british-woman-admits-role-in-global-monkey-torture-network/ar-BB1lYi3y?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=a70c3f3c4244464edbfad5d9a0ae3f6c&ei=8

    A certain minority of every population are complete scum. That's where you get people like Beria and Dirlewanger from.
    What a grotesque story. Maybe it’s good humanity is dying out
    It is? Not obviously so yet.
    Birthrates are collapsing worldwide. Quite astonishingly fast in some places
    Which is not the same as saying humanity is dying out. The western lifestyle and the general need and desire for women to have careers, and thus delay or choose not to have children is clearly an issue. But the best thing for the planet is fewer humans, so its not all bad. If population decline became a global thing and became an issue you can imagine that society would adapt - it would pay people to have more children (unlike the UK situation now).
    Lots of countries have tried paying people to have more children, and I don't think any have succeeded in increasing the birth rate above the replacement level.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206
    I believe that the current Israel regime's objective is to destroy Palestine. Just as Hamas's objective is to destroy Israel.

    Initially one could argue - and I did sincerely believe - that Israel's objective was to destroy Hamas but their actions have proven to me that is no longer (or never was) the case.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,218
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    This is one of those articles that just had me WTF !!!!!

    Monkey torture videos. I am genuinely lost for words

    "The investigation exposed a global monkey torture network involving a private online group paying people in Indonesia to kill and torture baby monkeys on video.

    The BBC reported that LeGresley used the username “The Immolator” and ran a poll for members of the group on which method of torture should be inflicted upon an infant monkey."

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/british-woman-admits-role-in-global-monkey-torture-network/ar-BB1lYi3y?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=a70c3f3c4244464edbfad5d9a0ae3f6c&ei=8

    A certain minority of every population are complete scum. That's where you get people like Beria and Dirlewanger from.
    What a grotesque story. Maybe it’s good humanity is dying out
    It is? Not obviously so yet.
    Birthrates are collapsing worldwide. Quite astonishingly fast in some places
    Women are wising up.
    They want the end of humanity?
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,542

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    This is one of those articles that just had me WTF !!!!!

    Monkey torture videos. I am genuinely lost for words

    "The investigation exposed a global monkey torture network involving a private online group paying people in Indonesia to kill and torture baby monkeys on video.

    The BBC reported that LeGresley used the username “The Immolator” and ran a poll for members of the group on which method of torture should be inflicted upon an infant monkey."

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/british-woman-admits-role-in-global-monkey-torture-network/ar-BB1lYi3y?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=a70c3f3c4244464edbfad5d9a0ae3f6c&ei=8

    A certain minority of every population are complete scum. That's where you get people like Beria and Dirlewanger from.
    What a grotesque story. Maybe it’s good humanity is dying out
    It is? Not obviously so yet.
    Birthrates are collapsing worldwide. Quite astonishingly fast in some places
    Which is not the same as saying humanity is dying out. The western lifestyle and the general need and desire for women to have careers, and thus delay or choose not to have children is clearly an issue. But the best thing for the planet is fewer humans, so its not all bad. If population decline became a global thing and became an issue you can imagine that society would adapt - it would pay people to have more children (unlike the UK situation now).
    Lots of countries have tried paying people to have more children, and I don't think any have succeeded in increasing the birth rate above the replacement level.
    Depends on the offer. Pay me 20,000 a year every year and I'll do it. Pay me 100 quid a year and its no thanks.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,700
    rcs1000 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them

    If we manage to complete the energy transition away from fossil fuels then we might well find out. The Middle East would mean no more to most of the rest of the world than remote corners of Africa do now.
    There's an excellent article in the NYT today about how cheap battery storage is transforming California's grid.
    California's incredibly lucky with solar availability which makes storage, even with current battery tech, a no-brainer. They only need something like 3-4 more years of building out storage capacity at the current rate before they can eliminate routine fossil fuel use altogether.

    It's just after 8am, and solar is already producing well over half of California's electricity: https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html

    I don't think it's particularly lucky - it's selecting the obvious renewable horse to back.

    California has loads of reliable sunshine, so they've selected solar.

    Britain has masses of reliable tidal ranges, and intermittent and not particular blistering sunshine so we've selected... Solar. And wind.

    I haven't invented a 'where there's muck there's brass' aphorism for it, but basically, when something in public policy could be called out by an 8 year old as not making sense, it means someone's making an awful lot of money.
    Solar has become staggeringly cheap, though. I read a story about someone using panels as building materials for a wall, because it cost no more than using more traditional components.
    Solar panels on buildings, I have no issue with. But it's a very different kettle of fish to larger installation designed to power the grid. That's where tidal is convincing in a way that neither wind nor solar are.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593

    I believe that the current Israel regime's objective is to destroy Palestine. Just as Hamas's objective is to destroy Israel.

    Initially one could argue - and I did sincerely believe - that Israel's objective was to destroy Hamas but their actions have proven to me that is no longer (or never was) the case.

    So you think they go in to the West Bank next?
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,700

    rcs1000 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them

    If we manage to complete the energy transition away from fossil fuels then we might well find out. The Middle East would mean no more to most of the rest of the world than remote corners of Africa do now.
    There's an excellent article in the NYT today about how cheap battery storage is transforming California's grid.
    California's incredibly lucky with solar availability which makes storage, even with current battery tech, a no-brainer. They only need something like 3-4 more years of building out storage capacity at the current rate before they can eliminate routine fossil fuel use altogether.

    It's just after 8am, and solar is already producing well over half of California's electricity: https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html

    I don't think it's particularly lucky - it's selecting the obvious renewable horse to back.

    California has loads of reliable sunshine, so they've selected solar.

    Britain has masses of reliable tidal ranges, and intermittent and not particular blistering sunshine so we've selected... Solar. And wind.

    I haven't invented a 'where there's muck there's brass' aphorism for it, but basically, when something in public policy could be called out by an 8 year old as not making sense, it means someone's making an awful lot of money.
    Solar has become staggeringly cheap, though. I read a story about someone using panels as building materials for a wall, because it cost no more than using more traditional components.
    Solar panels on buildings, I have no issue with. But it's a very different kettle of fish to larger installation designed to power the grid. That's where tidal is convincing in a way that neither wind nor solar are.
    Fish pun not intended.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,335

    I believe that the current Israel regime's objective is to destroy Palestine. Just as Hamas's objective is to destroy Israel.

    Initially one could argue - and I did sincerely believe - that Israel's objective was to destroy Hamas but their actions have proven to me that is no longer (or never was) the case.

    How are you defining Palestine?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,679

    Scott_xP said:

    @paulwaugh
    Labour MPs (who are in the Urgent Question in big numbers) make clear how appalled they are as Suella Braverman says it's right that Israel "finishes the job".

    "Disgusting" heckles one MP.

    Where Suella may be making her mistake, is on what job it is that many within the Israeli Government want to do. If their job were the defeat, or even the extermination, of all armed Hamas combatants, with proportionate (it could never be zero) destruction and civilian casualties, she would have a very strong argument. It would be crazy to stop before it were done - as crazy as stopping a course of medication before an infection is dealt with.

    However, it looks to me (and I'm open to being shown to be wrong) that the job isn't defeating Hamas with proportionate destruction and civilian casualities, it is destruction and civilian casualties, with proportionate defeat of Hamas. Perhaps I'm wrong, and Israel and Suella are correct.
    I think what you're trying to do is to make a conclusion about someone's motivation, and that's very hard to do.

    What I think we can do is to judge Israel's actions against what we think a reasonable campaign to destroy Hamas, without disproportionate civilian casualties, would look like. I think you can judge that Israel is falling short of its duty to minimise civilian casualties and to provide for civilians in areas where it has defeated Hamas.

    Since Israel appears unwilling or unable to take remedial action for these failings, then I think the question of whether it is Israel's intent to cause this suffering is moot. I was willing to cut Israel a lot of slack on the assumption that, as a democracy, they would hold themselves to higher standards as they took reasonable steps to defend themselves.

    I was clearly mistaken in the confidence I placed in Israel and its institutions.
    So wat do you think a reasonable campaign to destroy Hamas, without disproportionate civilian casualties, would look like ?
    One obvious and simple difference would be Israel providing adequate levels of humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians in areas of Gaza where Hamas have been defeated. That Israel have failed at even that obvious task, means it is not necessary to spend too much time discussing the nuances of targeting decisions.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,542

    I believe that the current Israel regime's objective is to destroy Palestine. Just as Hamas's objective is to destroy Israel.

    Initially one could argue - and I did sincerely believe - that Israel's objective was to destroy Hamas but their actions have proven to me that is no longer (or never was) the case.

    I certainly believe it is Israel's plan to destroy all the infrastructure in Gaza, including anything that Hamas may use (tunnels, other buildings etc). Do they plan to rebuild it too? Under Israeli control? Possibly. I don't believe that they intend to destroy Palestine as such. I think its pertinent to recall what was going on before Oct 7th 2023 - definite rapprochement of Israel and many of its neighbours. I think Israel wants peace and sees Hamas in Gaza as the biggest issue.
  • Options
    OllyOlly Posts: 42

    Scott_xP said:

    @paulwaugh
    Labour MPs (who are in the Urgent Question in big numbers) make clear how appalled they are as Suella Braverman says it's right that Israel "finishes the job".

    "Disgusting" heckles one MP.

    Where Suella may be making her mistake, is on what job it is that many within the Israeli Government want to do. If their job were the defeat, or even the extermination, of all armed Hamas combatants, with proportionate (it could never be zero) destruction and civilian casualties, she would have a very strong argument. It would be crazy to stop before it were done - as crazy as stopping a course of medication before an infection is dealt with.

    However, it looks to me (and I'm open to being shown to be wrong) that the job isn't defeating Hamas with proportionate destruction and civilian casualities, it is destruction and civilian casualties, with proportionate defeat of Hamas. Perhaps I'm wrong, and Israel and Suella are correct.
    I think what you're trying to do is to make a conclusion about someone's motivation, and that's very hard to do.

    What I think we can do is to judge Israel's actions against what we think a reasonable campaign to destroy Hamas, without disproportionate civilian casualties, would look like. I think you can judge that Israel is falling short of its duty to minimise civilian casualties and to provide for civilians in areas where it has defeated Hamas.

    Since Israel appears unwilling or unable to take remedial action for these failings, then I think the question of whether it is Israel's intent to cause this suffering is moot. I was willing to cut Israel a lot of slack on the assumption that, as a democracy, they would hold themselves to higher standards as they took reasonable steps to defend themselves.

    I was clearly mistaken in the confidence I placed in Israel and its institutions.
    You're right - it's important to stick to facts, not draw conclusions about motives.
    Very true. Often when confronted of clear evidence of a person or country having done something horrible people dismiss it with "But why would they do that." That question though is irrelevant if the evidence is they have done something horrible.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,542
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    This is one of those articles that just had me WTF !!!!!

    Monkey torture videos. I am genuinely lost for words

    "The investigation exposed a global monkey torture network involving a private online group paying people in Indonesia to kill and torture baby monkeys on video.

    The BBC reported that LeGresley used the username “The Immolator” and ran a poll for members of the group on which method of torture should be inflicted upon an infant monkey."

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/british-woman-admits-role-in-global-monkey-torture-network/ar-BB1lYi3y?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=a70c3f3c4244464edbfad5d9a0ae3f6c&ei=8

    A certain minority of every population are complete scum. That's where you get people like Beria and Dirlewanger from.
    What a grotesque story. Maybe it’s good humanity is dying out
    It is? Not obviously so yet.
    Birthrates are collapsing worldwide. Quite astonishingly fast in some places
    Women are wising up.
    They want the end of humanity?
    Quite a lot of women think the world would be better without men...
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    RefUK underperformed because they didn't run a lot of candidates.

    At the GE they will have a full slate of candidates
    At the GE they will have Nigel Farage

    It is hopium is the Tories think they can simply project last week's result forward

    They ran a full slate in London. The Conservatives outpolled them by 4:1.

    Reform amount to very little.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593

    I believe that the current Israel regime's objective is to destroy Palestine. Just as Hamas's objective is to destroy Israel.

    Initially one could argue - and I did sincerely believe - that Israel's objective was to destroy Hamas but their actions have proven to me that is no longer (or never was) the case.

    I certainly believe it is Israel's plan to destroy all the infrastructure in Gaza, including anything that Hamas may use (tunnels, other buildings etc). Do they plan to rebuild it too? Under Israeli control? Possibly. I don't believe that they intend to destroy Palestine as such. I think its pertinent to recall what was going on before Oct 7th 2023 - definite rapprochement of Israel and many of its neighbours. I think Israel wants peace and sees Hamas in Gaza as the biggest issue.
    I think they want to provoke a wider war and bring in the Saudis and Jordan to take down Hezbollah and Iran and destroying Hamas is basically securing the home front first
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,280
    edited May 7
    Scott_xP said:

    @PeterKellner1

    Rishi Sunak says last week's elections show we are on course for a hung parliament. My blog for @prospect_uk gives five reasons why he's wrong. One of them includes fresh evidence of the power of anti-Conservative tactical voting.


    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/elections/election-countdown/66017/is-labour-on-course-for-a-majority

    Here's the link
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 823

    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them

    If we manage to complete the energy transition away from fossil fuels then we might well find out. The Middle East would mean no more to most of the rest of the world than remote corners of Africa do now.
    There's an excellent article in the NYT today about how cheap battery storage is transforming California's grid.
    California's incredibly lucky with solar availability which makes storage, even with current battery tech, a no-brainer. They only need something like 3-4 more years of building out storage capacity at the current rate before they can eliminate routine fossil fuel use altogether.

    It's just after 8am, and solar is already producing well over half of California's electricity: https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html

    I don't think it's particularly lucky - it's selecting the obvious renewable horse to back.

    California has loads of reliable sunshine, so they've selected solar.

    Britain has masses of reliable tidal ranges, and intermittent and not particular blistering sunshine so we've selected... Solar. And wind.

    I haven't invented a 'where there's muck there's brass' aphorism for it, but basically, when something in public policy could be called out by an 8 year old as not making sense, it means someone's making an awful lot of money.
    Solar and wind are turning out to be inversely correlated to a surprisingly strong degree in the UK - doubling the amount of both would get us to the point of ending routine gas & biomass generation. That's probably good enough for our requirements.

    I don't see large-scale tidal working out - we're just not good enough at building infrastructure at that scale. Maybe it'll have more of a role when/if battery storage becomes cheap enough to solve the intermittency issue without needing giant lagoons.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 1,206

    I believe that the current Israel regime's objective is to destroy Palestine. Just as Hamas's objective is to destroy Israel.

    Initially one could argue - and I did sincerely believe - that Israel's objective was to destroy Hamas but their actions have proven to me that is no longer (or never was) the case.

    I certainly believe it is Israel's plan to destroy all the infrastructure in Gaza, including anything that Hamas may use (tunnels, other buildings etc). Do they plan to rebuild it too? Under Israeli control? Possibly. I don't believe that they intend to destroy Palestine as such. I think its pertinent to recall what was going on before Oct 7th 2023 - definite rapprochement of Israel and many of its neighbours. I think Israel wants peace and sees Hamas in Gaza as the biggest issue.
    How can you look at anything Israel has done as evidence this is the case? This is truly baffling to me,
  • Options
    OllyOlly Posts: 42

    I believe that the current Israel regime's objective is to destroy Palestine. Just as Hamas's objective is to destroy Israel.

    Initially one could argue - and I did sincerely believe - that Israel's objective was to destroy Hamas but their actions have proven to me that is no longer (or never was) the case.

    I certainly believe it is Israel's plan to destroy all the infrastructure in Gaza, including anything that Hamas may use (tunnels, other buildings etc). Do they plan to rebuild it too? Under Israeli control? Possibly. I don't believe that they intend to destroy Palestine as such. I think its pertinent to recall what was going on before Oct 7th 2023 - definite rapprochement of Israel and many of its neighbours. I think Israel wants peace and sees Hamas in Gaza as the biggest issue.
    How can you look at anything Israel has done as evidence this is the case? This is truly baffling to me,
    People who support Israel seem to have an endless capacity for self deception.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,593
    Sean_F said:

    RefUK underperformed because they didn't run a lot of candidates.

    At the GE they will have a full slate of candidates
    At the GE they will have Nigel Farage

    It is hopium is the Tories think they can simply project last week's result forward

    They ran a full slate in London. The Conservatives outpolled them by 4:1.

    Reform amount to very little.
    And they got 16.9%/3000 votes under perfect conditions in a very leave, very disengaged constituency coming third to a totally clapped out government defending a defenestrated wrong 'uns seat
    They are a nothing burger
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