Informative header from probably the sharpest bettor on here.
You are far too kind, but I am far too egotistical to tell you to stop.
I agree, nice header and not just because it’s one that confirms my preconceptions that Reform support is illusory.
The good news for the government only goes so far though. They can’t double count Reform swingback. If the vote didn’t turn up at the locals then it’s not there to squeeze - the Reform squeeze is already reflected in the Tory numbers. Which is one reason they were better - a bit, though not enough - than polling.
rcs1000 asked: "How would you explain Singapore? That's typically about as high on national morale measures as you can get; people are wealthy; the economy is growing; there are lots of pro-natal policies.
And yet the TFR is 1.1."
Fair question. And one to which Lee Kuan Yew never found an answer, as smart as he was. Two thoughts and a cartoon for you, and then I have to get back to doing my chores: In the US fertility rates are higher in rural areas than suburbs, and higher in suburbs than in central cities. In Japan, the highest fertility rate is found in the Okinawa prefecture, the most, or one of the most, rural.
The cartoon: A young woman is saying to a young man that she too wants to have children, "just not in this apartment".
I'm sure that's part of it.
But then again, that would suggest that countries with higher proportions of people living in houses would be more likely to have children. It would also suggest that rural areas would have more population growth than urban areas.
In Japan, the opposite is happening. The countryside is depopulating, while Tokyo - one of the world's largest cities - continues to grow.
And the Singaporean government is not unaware of this problem. Their Housing Development Board has made a huge effort to provide affordable housing for parents: have a kid, and a whole bunch of subsidized housing opens up to you.
I would also point out that France's TFR is well above the US, Germany and the UK. It's the only place in the world where college educated women have TFRs above replacement level. So they must be doing something right. (Not M Macron himself of course, but that's another story.)
France provides substantial tax breaks for people with families, IIRC.
Yes, I fully approve of the French tax system (although it is less generous to high earners with kids than it used to be). Specifically, it means that someone earning EUR60,000 a year with a stay at home wife, and two kids, essentially pays zero tax. By comparison, a single man with no kids, will have handed over about EUR24,000 in taxes. It makes parenting dramatically more affordable than it would otherwise be.
The issue is that it's very hard* to implement such a measure if it doesn't already exist, because it creates an enormous number of losers.
* Actually, it is essentially impossible.
Actually that works to about €86,000 (3 x 28,797) where the tax the family would pay would about €5,500
Compare that to a single worker family earning £80,000 in the UK who will be paying £19,500 in income tax with NI on top.
rcs1000 asked: "How would you explain Singapore? That's typically about as high on national morale measures as you can get; people are wealthy; the economy is growing; there are lots of pro-natal policies.
And yet the TFR is 1.1."
Fair question. And one to which Lee Kuan Yew never found an answer, as smart as he was. Two thoughts and a cartoon for you, and then I have to get back to doing my chores: In the US fertility rates are higher in rural areas than suburbs, and higher in suburbs than in central cities. In Japan, the highest fertility rate is found in the Okinawa prefecture, the most, or one of the most, rural.
The cartoon: A young woman is saying to a young man that she too wants to have children, "just not in this apartment".
I'm sure that's part of it.
But then again, that would suggest that countries with higher proportions of people living in houses would be more likely to have children. It would also suggest that rural areas would have more population growth than urban areas.
In Japan, the opposite is happening. The countryside is depopulating, while Tokyo - one of the world's largest cities - continues to grow.
And the Singaporean government is not unaware of this problem. Their Housing Development Board has made a huge effort to provide affordable housing for parents: have a kid, and a whole bunch of subsidized housing opens up to you.
I would also point out that France's TFR is well above the US, Germany and the UK. It's the only place in the world where college educated women have TFRs above replacement level. So they must be doing something right. (Not M Macron himself of course, but that's another story.)
France provides substantial tax breaks for people with families, IIRC.
Yes, I fully approve of the French tax system (although it is less generous to high earners with kids than it used to be). Specifically, it means that someone earning EUR60,000 a year with a stay at home wife, and two kids, essentially pays zero tax. By comparison, a single man with no kids, will have handed over about EUR24,000 in taxes. It makes parenting dramatically more affordable than it would otherwise be.
The issue is that it's very hard* to implement such a measure if it doesn't already exist, because it creates an enormous number of losers.
* Actually, it is essentially impossible.
Actually that works to about €86,000 (3 x 28,797) where the tax the family would pay would about €5,500
Compare that to a single worker family earning £80,000 in the UK who will be paying £19,500 in income tax with NI on top.
My guess would be that reform resonates a bit less than ukip because we already had Brexit... I also think the branding is off. Reform is a think-tank/technocratic kind of word... they should have called themselves something else imo.
Like... ummm... Veritas?
Shoulda gone with "Vino" more attractive to more UK voters.
Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
RefUK underperformed because they didn't run a lot of candidates.
At the GE they will have a full slate of candidates At the GE they will have Nigel Farage
It is hopium is the Tories think they can simply project last week's result forward
They ran a full slate in London. The Conservatives outpolled them by 4:1.
Reform amount to very little.
London is Remainer Central.
While that's true, there are also millions of leavers, and five London Boroughs (Barking and Dagenham, Bexley, Havering, Hillingdon, and Sutton) all voted for exit.
This is one of those articles that just had me WTF !!!!!
Monkey torture videos. I am genuinely lost for words
"The investigation exposed a global monkey torture network involving a private online group paying people in Indonesia to kill and torture baby monkeys on video.
The BBC reported that LeGresley used the username “The Immolator” and ran a poll for members of the group on which method of torture should be inflicted upon an infant monkey."
A certain minority of every population are complete scum. That's where you get people like Beria and Dirlewanger from.
What a grotesque story. Maybe it’s good humanity is dying out
It is? Not obviously so yet.
Birthrates are collapsing worldwide. Quite astonishingly fast in some places
Which is not the same as saying humanity is dying out. The western lifestyle and the general need and desire for women to have careers, and thus delay or choose not to have children is clearly an issue. But the best thing for the planet is fewer humans, so its not all bad. If population decline became a global thing and became an issue you can imagine that society would adapt - it would pay people to have more children (unlike the UK situation now).
Lots of countries have tried paying people to have more children, and I don't think any have succeeded in increasing the birth rate above the replacement level.
Yes, and it’s not just because of “women wising up”. There is a whole host of reasons. Young people abandoning sex, the incel phenomenon, declining sperm counts + declining testosterone, the problem of unaffordable housing - on and on
I’m in Italy where people famously love and indulge their children. Except, of course, they don’t. If they did they’d have more. Instead:
“Births in Italy dropped 3.6 per cent last year to an all-time low, highlighting the uphill battle facing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as she seeks to reverse the rapid ageing of the Italian population.
Just 379,000 babies were born in Italy in 2023, down from the previous year’s record low of 393,000 — which Istat, the national statistical agency, had then noted was the fewest births since Italy’s unification in 1861.”
FT
Italy is dying out. And you can see it. Lots of old people, not so many young couples with kids
380k doesn't seem that bad for a population of 60m.
Japan and Korea have a bigger issue with this. (Maybe soon an issue in China)
What? Italy has one of the lowest birthrates in the world and the collapse is accelerating. At the peak of the baby boom in the 60s they had 1m babies born in a year. So it’s now a third of that
Nor can they blame unaffordable housing. The country is depopulating so fast there is plenty of housing to be found for pennies if you are prepared to do it up
It seems to be more of a cultural malaise. A good spectator article on it here (not by my infernal stalker)
To be fair, the houses for pennies is more to do with geography - younger people don’t want to live in some medieval house in some hill village five miles up a winding mountain road - than shortage of people per se. The Italian model has always been, family owns a significant property that stays in the family and eventually gets handed down to the next generation; better off families have a smaller second home somewhere by the coast or mountains, available for the wider family and friends to use, which also gets handed down; then the younger members rent flats in cities where the jobs are, where they probably live Monday-Friday and return to the family home at weekends (with their washing), or they commute to the city from the family home.
The social change in Italy has been the shock expressed when any family has a second child. It’s seen as risky, in a society that is only a generation or two away from subsistence farming and is chronically risk averse.
Interesting. I’m reading David Gilmour’s “The Pursuit of Italy” while I’m here. So far it’s good not great but it does make some compelling observations even so
Eg the whole introduction explains that Italy is actually and essentially a poor country in terms of fertility and topography. So many mountains. Rivers non navigable. Mediocre soils. Prone to earthquakes. Dangerous volcanoes. And a position that makes it easy to invade by sea from all sides
It was the “accident” of Rome that made Italy appear naturally important and wealthy
On the other hand I am sitting here in a square in Vieste watching the passeggiata and it is still very charming (albeit old). It will be a damn shame if it disappears
Many of the ideas that have shaped societal development, whether artistic, political or philosophical, originated in Italy. Even today, discourse and the media are focused on the theoretical rather than the practical, to a degree that would frustrate Brits and infuriate Americans. Just a few days ago I was standing outside the office of the social democratic candidate for Spello, campaigning for re-election for his third term, and his five-point prospectus under the heading “together for Spello” was all entirely theoretical; there wasn’t a single item that a British or American voter would recognise as a concrete promise that something specific might come about if he is re-elected. Most of us would dismiss this as simply vacuous waffle. One assumes that Italian voters like that kind of stuff.
Many of the Italians I know , particularly those from the Mezzogiorno, have made very similar observations to yours - but, having upped sticks and moved to London, they're probably an unrepresentative bunch!
"Of course I want to work on something real, to build something... not just dream about it", said one friend.
Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
I believe that the current Israel regime's objective is to destroy Palestine. Just as Hamas's objective is to destroy Israel.
Initially one could argue - and I did sincerely believe - that Israel's objective was to destroy Hamas but their actions have proven to me that is no longer (or never was) the case.
I certainly believe it is Israel's plan to destroy all the infrastructure in Gaza, including anything that Hamas may use (tunnels, other buildings etc). Do they plan to rebuild it too? Under Israeli control? Possibly. I don't believe that they intend to destroy Palestine as such. I think its pertinent to recall what was going on before Oct 7th 2023 - definite rapprochement of Israel and many of its neighbours. I think Israel wants peace and sees Hamas in Gaza as the biggest issue.
I wish that were true, but the evidence from the West Bank has been the creeping annexation of Palestinian land and the replacement with Israel Settlers. It's a slow moving invasion, bit it's an invasion nonetheless.
Yes I agree. In fact I’d say the process is speeding up - Israel’s clear intention is to make life so intolerable in Gaza (snd maybe the West Bank too) that eventually all the Palestinians will leave
Israel wants defensible borders - with Egypt to the south (no Gaza Strip) and the Jordan to the east. The golan heights protect them from Syria and they can cope with one hostile border facing Lebanon
It makes strategic sense. It also means ethnic cleansing of 3m people
It will all, however, be academic if Iran gets a bomb they can drop on tel aviv and the motivation to do so
There are 14 million people between the river and the sea, and they split almost equally between Jews and Muslims.
How do we ensure that everyone in that are - Muslim or Jew - gets to live a life without fear of being invaded and raped, their land confiscated, or to have rockets falling upon them.
And I think it's simplistic to say "oh, we just need to defeat Hamas". The West Bank hasn't been run by Hamas. And it didn't stop Israel's slow motion invasion.
If Israel does expel the vast majority of Muslims to Egypt, to Jordan and to Syria, then millions will become homeless, and hundreds of thousands will die.
That won't eliminate anti-Jewish feeling, it will destabilize states like Egypt that have - by and large - tried to work with Israel. If those governments fall, they won't be replaced by pro-Israel, pro-Western ones. On the contrary, they will be full of people with burning hatred of Israel, and a feeling that "how could it be any worse".
@Luckyguy1983 got it right. Israel's desire to avoid another holocaust is making one ever more likely.
Issue is no bugger wants the palestinian's. Where are their Arab Muslim buddies welcoming them to come and live in their countries. Instead they build big fences and close their borders.
Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
Is Reclaim for people who think Reform is just too mainstream?
RefUK underperformed because they didn't run a lot of candidates.
At the GE they will have a full slate of candidates At the GE they will have Nigel Farage
It is hopium is the Tories think they can simply project last week's result forward
They ran a full slate in London. The Conservatives outpolled them by 4:1.
Reform amount to very little.
London is Remainer Central.
While that's true, there are also millions of leavers, and five London Boroughs (Barking and Dagenham, Bexley, Havering, Hillingdon, and Sutton) all voted for exit.
And the Hall campaign had a relentless "two horse race" squeeze message with a totemic policy issue (cut ULEZ). With her target voters, it worked, no point saying otherwise.
Whether that approach works in a General Election, where the Conservatives are the incumbent, I'm not so sure.
The anti-genocide protest movement is admirable but it's terribly vague in its demands. Never mind "Stop the war crimes", "Stop the genocide", "Ceasefire now", or "Free Palestine". The slogan should be "Sanction Israel Now" or similar.
That is a clear demand, made in a clear way to the authorities of whichever country the protest is taking place in. Some countries are already sanctioning Israel. Join them.
Stop weapons trade. Stop all trade. Expel ambassadors. Shut embassies. Sever diplomatic relations. Freeze bank accounts. Freeze or seize assets. Etc. Sanction them to try to stop them committing the crimes they're committing and intend to commit more of.
Never mind taking a moral stand or bearing witness. They won't listen. They'll think what a bunch of pussies. You might as well pass a resolution saying this house deplores mass murder. Bully for this house.
Do I have to take over the protest movement and give it some strategic direction or what?
"The slogan should be "Sanction Israel Now" or similar."
That won't work; as many of the same people have been saying for years that sanctions don't work.
If for example all Israeli state assets in the City and elsewhere in Britain were frozen or seized, as were all the assets of rich Israeli citizens such as Roman Abramovich and Alexander Mashkevitch, and Israeli diplomats were declared persona non grata and escorted to an airport within 24 hours, that would be a blow.
It would be far more of a blow than saying they will be very naughty boys and girls if they conquer Rafah.
I don't know about all of the "same people", but I think many of them will be aware that sanctions against Iran HAVE had an effect - and Israel has a much more internationalised economy than Iran.
Pro-Israeli organisations have put a lot of work into opposing the BDS movement. They have also put a lot of work into pumping up the "our enemies are terrorists" meme - for more than 50 years. They haven't been wasting their resources. If that work goes up in smoke, they take a hit.
I don't even particularly like Hamas. But I do respect young men and women who take up arms to defend their communities against fascist aggressors. Hamas are absolutely not a "death cult". Daesh are.
Hamas absolutely are a death cult. They have said as much - saying that it would be worth tens of millions of Palestinians dying if it cleanses Jews from the middle east. Their entire ideology towards Israel is based in some cases on exactly the same antisemitic texts as the Nazis. The Hamas Covenant invokes the Protocols of the Elders of Zion FFS.
"I don't even particularly like Hamas". Take a look at yourself. Have a dark night of the soul. Realise what you are supporting because you are consumed by hatred. You've become so deranged you're on the side of genocidal fascist maniacs like those you claim to want to oppose.
Then take a breath and begin to think about how to bring about peace rather than just wanting genocide for those you don't like.
I believe that the current Israel regime's objective is to destroy Palestine. Just as Hamas's objective is to destroy Israel.
Initially one could argue - and I did sincerely believe - that Israel's objective was to destroy Hamas but their actions have proven to me that is no longer (or never was) the case.
I certainly believe it is Israel's plan to destroy all the infrastructure in Gaza, including anything that Hamas may use (tunnels, other buildings etc). Do they plan to rebuild it too? Under Israeli control? Possibly. I don't believe that they intend to destroy Palestine as such. I think its pertinent to recall what was going on before Oct 7th 2023 - definite rapprochement of Israel and many of its neighbours. I think Israel wants peace and sees Hamas in Gaza as the biggest issue.
I wish that were true, but the evidence from the West Bank has been the creeping annexation of Palestinian land and the replacement with Israel Settlers. It's a slow moving invasion, bit it's an invasion nonetheless.
Yes I agree. In fact I’d say the process is speeding up - Israel’s clear intention is to make life so intolerable in Gaza (snd maybe the West Bank too) that eventually all the Palestinians will leave
Israel wants defensible borders - with Egypt to the south (no Gaza Strip) and the Jordan to the east. The golan heights protect them from Syria and they can cope with one hostile border facing Lebanon
It makes strategic sense. It also means ethnic cleansing of 3m people
It will all, however, be academic if Iran gets a bomb they can drop on tel aviv and the motivation to do so
There are 14 million people between the river and the sea, and they split almost equally between Jews and Muslims.
How do we ensure that everyone in that are - Muslim or Jew - gets to live a life without fear of being invaded and raped, their land confiscated, or to have rockets falling upon them.
And I think it's simplistic to say "oh, we just need to defeat Hamas". The West Bank hasn't been run by Hamas. And it didn't stop Israel's slow motion invasion.
If Israel does expel the vast majority of Muslims to Egypt, to Jordan and to Syria, then millions will become homeless, and hundreds of thousands will die.
That won't eliminate anti-Jewish feeling, it will destabilize states like Egypt that have - by and large - tried to work with Israel. If those governments fall, they won't be replaced by pro-Israel, pro-Western ones. On the contrary, they will be full of people with burning hatred of Israel, and a feeling that "how could it be any worse".
@Luckyguy1983 got it right. Israel's desire to avoid another holocaust is making one ever more likely.
Issue is no bugger wants the palestinian's. Where are their Arab Muslim buddies welcoming them to come and live in their countries. Instead they build big fences and close their borders.
Wait; why do the 7 million Palestinians living between the river and the sea - essentially all of whom were born there - have any less right to be there than the Israelis?
In the great Evergreen State of WA, candidate filing for August 2024 primary began Monday and continues through Friday.
Yours truly was one of the first to file, for the humble office of Democratic Precinct Officer aka PCO for my somewhat less humble voting precinct. IF nobody else files for this position, will be deemed elected by default; on the other hand, if someone else does file, then race goes on the primary ballot.
Big news so far of candidate filing statewide, is the surprise Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley for US House in WA CD04 (eastern WA interior Columbia River basin) against incumbent Republican congressman Dan Newhouse (one of the GOP who voted to impeach Trump after his attempted putsch). AND also against another Republican already endorsed by DJT.
Note that Smiley ran for US Senate in 2022, made primary Top Two (regardless of party) to advance to general election, with lost big versus incumbent Democratic US Senator Patty Murray. However, Smiley carried CD02 by wide margin. She raised a lot of money back then, and may well be able to do so again. IF she makes it into the Top Two for US House in 2024, she has potential to be strongest challenge ever faced by Dan Newhouse in his congressional career.
Also a Democrat in the race -ho now has some chance of making the Top Two in August thus advancing to Nov. general election, along with Newhouse, PROVIDED the two GOP challengers split the MAGA-maniac vote enough to allow the Dem to pass them both in final primary result. Which BTW is just what happened two years ago.
Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
Reform come across like a bloke in the pub who can be heard barking 'all I'm saying is.... ' just before a massive fight breaks out
rcs1000 asked: "How would you explain Singapore? That's typically about as high on national morale measures as you can get; people are wealthy; the economy is growing; there are lots of pro-natal policies.
And yet the TFR is 1.1."
Fair question. And one to which Lee Kuan Yew never found an answer, as smart as he was. Two thoughts and a cartoon for you, and then I have to get back to doing my chores: In the US fertility rates are higher in rural areas than suburbs, and higher in suburbs than in central cities. In Japan, the highest fertility rate is found in the Okinawa prefecture, the most, or one of the most, rural.
The cartoon: A young woman is saying to a young man that she too wants to have children, "just not in this apartment".
I'm sure that's part of it.
But then again, that would suggest that countries with higher proportions of people living in houses would be more likely to have children. It would also suggest that rural areas would have more population growth than urban areas.
In Japan, the opposite is happening. The countryside is depopulating, while Tokyo - one of the world's largest cities - continues to grow.
And the Singaporean government is not unaware of this problem. Their Housing Development Board has made a huge effort to provide affordable housing for parents: have a kid, and a whole bunch of subsidized housing opens up to you.
I would also point out that France's TFR is well above the US, Germany and the UK. It's the only place in the world where college educated women have TFRs above replacement level. So they must be doing something right. (Not M Macron himself of course, but that's another story.)
France provides substantial tax breaks for people with families, IIRC.
Yes, I fully approve of the French tax system (although it is less generous to high earners with kids than it used to be). Specifically, it means that someone earning EUR60,000 a year with a stay at home wife, and two kids, essentially pays zero tax. By comparison, a single man with no kids, will have handed over about EUR24,000 in taxes. It makes parenting dramatically more affordable than it would otherwise be.
The issue is that it's very hard* to implement such a measure if it doesn't already exist, because it creates an enormous number of losers.
* Actually, it is essentially impossible.
We've taken the opposite approach, of course - the bedroom tax, the two-child limit, 60 years of worrying about population growth, 40 years of building too few homes, NHS maternity being so run-down, the vaginal mesh scandal, the impossibility of renting a flat with enough room for a child, the IVF single cycle limit on the NHS, the failure of most low and mid-paying jobs to provide IVF let alone egg-freezing.
Our entire society has been configured to reduce TFR for the past two or three generations, and that pressure has only increased.
Even if government policy does reverse tomorrow, it'll likely take a couple of generations for the cultural assumptions to follow suit.
Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
rcs1000 asked: "How would you explain Singapore? That's typically about as high on national morale measures as you can get; people are wealthy; the economy is growing; there are lots of pro-natal policies.
And yet the TFR is 1.1."
Fair question. And one to which Lee Kuan Yew never found an answer, as smart as he was. Two thoughts and a cartoon for you, and then I have to get back to doing my chores: In the US fertility rates are higher in rural areas than suburbs, and higher in suburbs than in central cities. In Japan, the highest fertility rate is found in the Okinawa prefecture, the most, or one of the most, rural.
The cartoon: A young woman is saying to a young man that she too wants to have children, "just not in this apartment".
I'm sure that's part of it.
But then again, that would suggest that countries with higher proportions of people living in houses would be more likely to have children. It would also suggest that rural areas would have more population growth than urban areas.
In Japan, the opposite is happening. The countryside is depopulating, while Tokyo - one of the world's largest cities - continues to grow.
And the Singaporean government is not unaware of this problem. Their Housing Development Board has made a huge effort to provide affordable housing for parents: have a kid, and a whole bunch of subsidized housing opens up to you.
I would also point out that France's TFR is well above the US, Germany and the UK. It's the only place in the world where college educated women have TFRs above replacement level. So they must be doing something right. (Not M Macron himself of course, but that's another story.)
France provides substantial tax breaks for people with families, IIRC.
Yes, I fully approve of the French tax system (although it is less generous to high earners with kids than it used to be). Specifically, it means that someone earning EUR60,000 a year with a stay at home wife, and two kids, essentially pays zero tax. By comparison, a single man with no kids, will have handed over about EUR24,000 in taxes. It makes parenting dramatically more affordable than it would otherwise be.
The issue is that it's very hard* to implement such a measure if it doesn't already exist, because it creates an enormous number of losers.
* Actually, it is essentially impossible.
We've taken the opposite approach, of course - the bedroom tax, the two-child limit, 60 years of worrying about population growth, 40 years of building too few homes, NHS maternity being so run-down, the vaginal mesh scandal, the impossibility of renting a flat with enough room for a child, the IVF single cycle limit on the NHS, the failure of most low and mid-paying jobs to provide IVF let alone egg-freezing.
Our entire society has been configured to reduce TFR for the past two or three generations, and that pressure has only increased.
Even if government policy does reverse tomorrow, it'll likely take a couple of generations for the cultural assumptions to follow suit.
I believe that the current Israel regime's objective is to destroy Palestine. Just as Hamas's objective is to destroy Israel.
Initially one could argue - and I did sincerely believe - that Israel's objective was to destroy Hamas but their actions have proven to me that is no longer (or never was) the case.
I certainly believe it is Israel's plan to destroy all the infrastructure in Gaza, including anything that Hamas may use (tunnels, other buildings etc). Do they plan to rebuild it too? Under Israeli control? Possibly. I don't believe that they intend to destroy Palestine as such. I think its pertinent to recall what was going on before Oct 7th 2023 - definite rapprochement of Israel and many of its neighbours. I think Israel wants peace and sees Hamas in Gaza as the biggest issue.
I wish that were true, but the evidence from the West Bank has been the creeping annexation of Palestinian land and the replacement with Israel Settlers. It's a slow moving invasion, bit it's an invasion nonetheless.
Yes I agree. In fact I’d say the process is speeding up - Israel’s clear intention is to make life so intolerable in Gaza (snd maybe the West Bank too) that eventually all the Palestinians will leave
Israel wants defensible borders - with Egypt to the south (no Gaza Strip) and the Jordan to the east. The golan heights protect them from Syria and they can cope with one hostile border facing Lebanon
It makes strategic sense. It also means ethnic cleansing of 3m people
It will all, however, be academic if Iran gets a bomb they can drop on tel aviv and the motivation to do so
There are 14 million people between the river and the sea, and they split almost equally between Jews and Muslims.
How do we ensure that everyone in that are - Muslim or Jew - gets to live a life without fear of being invaded and raped, their land confiscated, or to have rockets falling upon them.
And I think it's simplistic to say "oh, we just need to defeat Hamas". The West Bank hasn't been run by Hamas. And it didn't stop Israel's slow motion invasion.
If Israel does expel the vast majority of Muslims to Egypt, to Jordan and to Syria, then millions will become homeless, and hundreds of thousands will die.
That won't eliminate anti-Jewish feeling, it will destabilize states like Egypt that have - by and large - tried to work with Israel. If those governments fall, they won't be replaced by pro-Israel, pro-Western ones. On the contrary, they will be full of people with burning hatred of Israel, and a feeling that "how could it be any worse".
@Luckyguy1983 got it right. Israel's desire to avoid another holocaust is making one ever more likely.
Issue is no bugger wants the palestinian's. Where are their Arab Muslim buddies welcoming them to come and live in their countries. Instead they build big fences and close their borders.
Why can’t they stay where they are? Surely they’ve every right to stay in the land their people have lived in since time immemorial?
People on this thread are over-analysing what RefUK's USP is. It's simply, "Are you very right wing? Do you think this Government is useless and corrupt? Would you have a pint with Nigel? If you answered yes to two of those questions, vote RefUK. If three, then become a Parliamentary candidate for just a small administrative fee."
Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
Reform come across like a bloke in the pub who can be heard barking 'all I'm saying is.... ' just before a massive fight breaks out
"I'm not racist. All I'm saying is they're different, uhn't they? They come over 'ere..."
After returning from lunch, Trump’s attorneys are calling for a mistrial. "A lot of the testimony this witness talked about today is way different than the story she was peddling in 2016," Trump attorney Todd Blanche says.
It overwhelmingly benefits the Tories, I'd have thought?
We've already change from indefinite postal vote, to requiring re-application every three(?) years, and I think we now also require NINOs - though those aren't a proof of identity, plenty of people have more than one for all sorts of reasons.
If we actually wanted to secure the process, we'd put in place a similar system to that used for passports: get someone to vouch for you.
It'll now be up to the next government to make any changes, so expect the likes of Brendan C-S to scream about gerrymandering if they do take up his suggestion!
Looking forward to the vitriolic response from Daily Mail to this:
"At Sulkava prison in Finland, I stood on the edge of a lake where, in the summer, prisoners fished for their dinner and foraged in the woodland for mushrooms and lingonberries. “Being here and able to cook for myself brings me a sense of normality, dignity and self-sufficiency,” one prisoner told me."
Appetising, delicious food served up to prisoners? It works for the Nordic countries
Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
Reform come across like a bloke in the pub who can be heard barking 'all I'm saying is.... ' just before a massive fight breaks out
"I'm not racist. All I'm saying is they're different, uhn't they? They come over 'ere..."
Very satirical, but your position on Israelis seems to be that they are different, an' went over there ...
After returning from lunch, Trump’s attorneys are calling for a mistrial. "A lot of the testimony this witness talked about today is way different than the story she was peddling in 2016," Trump attorney Todd Blanche says.
That's not grounds for a mistrial, that's grounds for his attorneys to make hay with the differences in what she was saying then and now.
It overwhelmingly benefits the Tories, I'd have thought?
We've already change from indefinite postal vote, to requiring re-application every three(?) years, and I think we now also require NINOs - though those aren't a proof of identity, plenty of people have more than one for all sorts of reasons.
If we actually wanted to secure the process, we'd put in place a similar system to that used for passports: get someone to vouch for you.
It'll now be up to the next government to make any changes, so expect the likes of Brendan C-S to scream about gerrymandering if they do take up his suggestion!
Of course it overwhelmingly benefits tories. Or did until their vote moved to Reform. Maybe that's what he means?
People on this thread are over-analysing what RefUK's USP is. It's simply, "Are you very right wing? Do you think this Government is useless and corrupt? Would you have a pint with Nigel? If you answered yes to two of those questions, vote RefUK. If three, then become a Parliamentary candidate for just a small administrative fee."
Don't forget to claim your brut 33 talc and aftershave gift pack with your fee
Looking forward to the vitriolic response from Daily Mail to this:
"At Sulkava prison in Finland, I stood on the edge of a lake where, in the summer, prisoners fished for their dinner and foraged in the woodland for mushrooms and lingonberries. “Being here and able to cook for myself brings me a sense of normality, dignity and self-sufficiency,” one prisoner told me."
Appetising, delicious food served up to prisoners? It works for the Nordic countries
Teaching them how to cook for when they get out is not a small thing. Not every prisoner is a PB aficionado who can discourse learnedly on this hot sauce or that vegan recipe.
I believe that the current Israel regime's objective is to destroy Palestine. Just as Hamas's objective is to destroy Israel.
Initially one could argue - and I did sincerely believe - that Israel's objective was to destroy Hamas but their actions have proven to me that is no longer (or never was) the case.
I certainly believe it is Israel's plan to destroy all the infrastructure in Gaza, including anything that Hamas may use (tunnels, other buildings etc). Do they plan to rebuild it too? Under Israeli control? Possibly. I don't believe that they intend to destroy Palestine as such. I think its pertinent to recall what was going on before Oct 7th 2023 - definite rapprochement of Israel and many of its neighbours. I think Israel wants peace and sees Hamas in Gaza as the biggest issue.
I wish that were true, but the evidence from the West Bank has been the creeping annexation of Palestinian land and the replacement with Israel Settlers. It's a slow moving invasion, bit it's an invasion nonetheless.
Yes I agree. In fact I’d say the process is speeding up - Israel’s clear intention is to make life so intolerable in Gaza (snd maybe the West Bank too) that eventually all the Palestinians will leave
Israel wants defensible borders - with Egypt to the south (no Gaza Strip) and the Jordan to the east. The golan heights protect them from Syria and they can cope with one hostile border facing Lebanon
It makes strategic sense. It also means ethnic cleansing of 3m people
It will all, however, be academic if Iran gets a bomb they can drop on tel aviv and the motivation to do so
There are 14 million people between the river and the sea, and they split almost equally between Jews and Muslims.
How do we ensure that everyone in that are - Muslim or Jew - gets to live a life without fear of being invaded and raped, their land confiscated, or to have rockets falling upon them.
And I think it's simplistic to say "oh, we just need to defeat Hamas". The West Bank hasn't been run by Hamas. And it didn't stop Israel's slow motion invasion.
If Israel does expel the vast majority of Muslims to Egypt, to Jordan and to Syria, then millions will become homeless, and hundreds of thousands will die.
That won't eliminate anti-Jewish feeling, it will destabilize states like Egypt that have - by and large - tried to work with Israel. If those governments fall, they won't be replaced by pro-Israel, pro-Western ones. On the contrary, they will be full of people with burning hatred of Israel, and a feeling that "how could it be any worse".
@Luckyguy1983 got it right. Israel's desire to avoid another holocaust is making one ever more likely.
Issue is no bugger wants the palestinian's. Where are their Arab Muslim buddies welcoming them to come and live in their countries. Instead they build big fences and close their borders.
It's not the Palestinians building the fences, though, is it?
I'm generally pro-Israel - but it's a bit daft to complain that no-one else wants to give a home to people who already have homes.
After returning from lunch, Trump’s attorneys are calling for a mistrial. "A lot of the testimony this witness talked about today is way different than the story she was peddling in 2016," Trump attorney Todd Blanche says.
So, expose her in cross examination. I don't see why this claim gives rise to a mistrial unless the judge excludes the 2016 evidence or tells the jury to ignore it.
Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
Reform come across like a bloke in the pub who can be heard barking 'all I'm saying is.... ' just before a massive fight breaks out
"I'm not racist. All I'm saying is they're different, uhn't they? They come over 'ere..."
Very satirical, but your position on Israelis seems to be that they are different, an' went over there ...
I'm for a one-state solution from the river to the sea with equal rights regardless of religion or ethnicity, with the right of return for refugees. The existence of the Jewish state does stand in the way of that. No problem though with Jews, Druze, or anyone else who was born there staying there. Just for the record, I am not for an Islamic state of Palestine or in any part of it.
Looking forward to the vitriolic response from Daily Mail to this:
"At Sulkava prison in Finland, I stood on the edge of a lake where, in the summer, prisoners fished for their dinner and foraged in the woodland for mushrooms and lingonberries. “Being here and able to cook for myself brings me a sense of normality, dignity and self-sufficiency,” one prisoner told me."
Appetising, delicious food served up to prisoners? It works for the Nordic countries
Teaching them how to cook for when they get out is not a small thing. Not every prisoner is a PB aficionado who can discourse learnedly on this hot sauce or that vegan recipe.
Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
Yeah, we have the Reboot, Reclaim, Reform, Rejoin, Resist, and Restore parties. Who knows what each stands for?
And the 'Refuk' abbreviation is pretty unfortunate, too.
Perhaps they should have called themselves the Popular Party or something like that? Or consider merging with the SDP and either stealing their name or calling the combined entity the Social Reform Party / SRP.
Looking forward to the vitriolic response from Daily Mail to this:
"At Sulkava prison in Finland, I stood on the edge of a lake where, in the summer, prisoners fished for their dinner and foraged in the woodland for mushrooms and lingonberries. “Being here and able to cook for myself brings me a sense of normality, dignity and self-sufficiency,” one prisoner told me."
Appetising, delicious food served up to prisoners? It works for the Nordic countries
Teaching them how to cook for when they get out is not a small thing. Not every prisoner is a PB aficionado who can discourse learnedly on this hot sauce or that vegan recipe.
I agree. I was being flippant.
Uk prisons are a disgrace.
Oh, you didn't come over as flippant at all - just savagely ironic. And rightly so.
Stormy Daniels says, at one point, she was staring at the ceiling wondering how she got there, and trying to think of something other than what was happening.
Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
Reform come across like a bloke in the pub who can be heard barking 'all I'm saying is.... ' just before a massive fight breaks out
"I'm not racist. All I'm saying is they're different, uhn't they? They come over 'ere..."
Very satirical, but your position on Israelis seems to be that they are different, an' went over there ...
I'm for a one-state solution from the river to the sea with equal rights regardless of religion or ethnicity, with the right of return for refugees. The existence of the Jewish state does stand in the way of that. No problem though with Jews, Druze, or anyone else who was born there staying there. Just for the record, I am not for an Islamic state of Palestine or in any part of it.
Do you see any risk that this might end up like overthrowing the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran and then being surprised by the establishment of the Islamic Republic?
Stormy Daniels says, at one point, she was staring at the ceiling wondering how she got there, and trying to think of something other than what was happening.
I'd take issue with saying the 'history never repeats' - I though the saying was that "history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second as farce".
See the middle east right now. History repeating on an endless loop of intolerance and bloodshed.
If only it was a farce. Its so bleak I can’t bear to think about it
The best way of summarising the Israel/arab thing is Larkin’s line: man hands on misery to man. It deepens like a coastal shelf
It’s like the Holocaust inflicted such terrible trauma on the jews of Israel they are subconsciously forced to reiterate it endlessly, cf victims of abuse who often become abusers - or extremely kinky (which is much healthier)
Meanwhile the Palestinians are locked in their own psychohistorical nightmare, somehow and sometimes revelling in their own martyrdom, masochistically - in between bursts of brutal violence against the Jews
The only sane response to this awful and sordid spectacle is to look away. I sometimes wonder what might happen if everyone did ignore them
There is a metaphysical argument that it is their fear of the holocaust that is leading them to a situation where another one could take place.
Yes. The Holocaust is the looming ancestral spectre in this family nightmare
And the crusades, and the Islamic invasion of a land that was Jewish before Islam existed. You would think the so called Holy Land would get a bit more luck from one of the gods.
I often ….. well, sometimes …… wonder how many Palestinians could, if the possibility existed, trace their ancestry back to residents of Israel in Biblical times. And therefore would have been, then, Jews, who converted, or were converted, to Christianity or Islam. Whereas, as I understand it, one can be accepted as an Israeli with 25% traceable Jewish ancestry.
Genetic studies show that both Jews and Palestinians, and other local groups like the Druze, are largely descended from the residents of Israel in Biblical times, and indeed even further back.
Not that I think policy should be made based on where your great-great-great-great…-great-grandparents lived.
Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
Reform come across like a bloke in the pub who can be heard barking 'all I'm saying is.... ' just before a massive fight breaks out
"I'm not racist. All I'm saying is they're different, uhn't they? They come over 'ere..."
Very satirical, but your position on Israelis seems to be that they are different, an' went over there ...
I'm for a one-state solution from the river to the sea with equal rights regardless of religion or ethnicity, with the right of return for refugees. The existence of the Jewish state does stand in the way of that. No problem though with Jews, Druze, or anyone else who was born there staying there. Just for the record, I am not for an Islamic state of Palestine or in any part of it.
How do you see that working?
We - well I - accuse the EU of not having a meaningful demos. This would be that taken to a total extreme, with half the population having very different ideas to the other.
Maybe you could see a coalition of liberal Jews and liberal Palestinians. But remind me, how has the liberal centre done in Northern Ireland?
I believe that the current Israel regime's objective is to destroy Palestine. Just as Hamas's objective is to destroy Israel.
Initially one could argue - and I did sincerely believe - that Israel's objective was to destroy Hamas but their actions have proven to me that is no longer (or never was) the case.
I certainly believe it is Israel's plan to destroy all the infrastructure in Gaza, including anything that Hamas may use (tunnels, other buildings etc). Do they plan to rebuild it too? Under Israeli control? Possibly. I don't believe that they intend to destroy Palestine as such. I think its pertinent to recall what was going on before Oct 7th 2023 - definite rapprochement of Israel and many of its neighbours. I think Israel wants peace and sees Hamas in Gaza as the biggest issue.
I wish that were true, but the evidence from the West Bank has been the creeping annexation of Palestinian land and the replacement with Israel Settlers. It's a slow moving invasion, bit it's an invasion nonetheless.
Yes I agree. In fact I’d say the process is speeding up - Israel’s clear intention is to make life so intolerable in Gaza (snd maybe the West Bank too) that eventually all the Palestinians will leave
Israel wants defensible borders - with Egypt to the south (no Gaza Strip) and the Jordan to the east. The golan heights protect them from Syria and they can cope with one hostile border facing Lebanon
It makes strategic sense. It also means ethnic cleansing of 3m people
It will all, however, be academic if Iran gets a bomb they can drop on tel aviv and the motivation to do so
There are 14 million people between the river and the sea, and they split almost equally between Jews and Muslims.
How do we ensure that everyone in that are - Muslim or Jew - gets to live a life without fear of being invaded and raped, their land confiscated, or to have rockets falling upon them.
And I think it's simplistic to say "oh, we just need to defeat Hamas". The West Bank hasn't been run by Hamas. And it didn't stop Israel's slow motion invasion.
If Israel does expel the vast majority of Muslims to Egypt, to Jordan and to Syria, then millions will become homeless, and hundreds of thousands will die.
That won't eliminate anti-Jewish feeling, it will destabilize states like Egypt that have - by and large - tried to work with Israel. If those governments fall, they won't be replaced by pro-Israel, pro-Western ones. On the contrary, they will be full of people with burning hatred of Israel, and a feeling that "how could it be any worse".
@Luckyguy1983 got it right. Israel's desire to avoid another holocaust is making one ever more likely.
Issue is no bugger wants the palestinian's. Where are their Arab Muslim buddies welcoming them to come and live in their countries. Instead they build big fences and close their borders.
Most Palestinians live outside of Palestine, either having been expelled or being the descendants of those who were expelled. And they're not all Muslims. And the plural of Palestinian is Palestinians without an apostrophe.
Where you are right is that most Arab states have crapped on the Palestinians for decades.
Stormy Daniels says, at one point, she was staring at the ceiling wondering how she got there, and trying to think of something other than what was happening.
Can you summarise the salacious bits first please 🙏
It was missionary, unprotected, and brief.
That's no fun.
(Which by the sounds of it is also an accurate summary of Ms Daniel's experience.)
Many of these details are not super necessary to the case of course, but since Trump denies any sexual encounter took place at all it has to be gotten into since the jury will need to weigh the credibility of the parties about what happened, and thus why the payoffs occurred.
Stormy Daniels says, at one point, she was staring at the ceiling wondering how she got there, and trying to think of something other than what was happening.
Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
Reform come across like a bloke in the pub who can be heard barking 'all I'm saying is.... ' just before a massive fight breaks out
"I'm not racist. All I'm saying is they're different, uhn't they? They come over 'ere..."
Very satirical, but your position on Israelis seems to be that they are different, an' went over there ...
I'm for a one-state solution from the river to the sea with equal rights regardless of religion or ethnicity, with the right of return for refugees. The existence of the Jewish state does stand in the way of that. No problem though with Jews, Druze, or anyone else who was born there staying there. Just for the record, I am not for an Islamic state of Palestine or in any part of it.
This is where the international left align themselves with the Israeli right. I don't understand it myself - the most obvious path to a one state solution involves Israeli annexation of the West Bank and Gaza.
Do Palestinians really aspire to being Arab Israelis?
"The conferencing is over, but Justice Merchan says that, with the consent of the defense lawyers, Susan Hoffinger, the prosecutor, has stepped out to confer with Stormy Daniels about keeping her testimony within the confines set by the judge, and avoiding any “unnecessary” details."
My knowledge of US law is mostly from TV and movies, but shouldn't his team get a chance to cross examine then put his case?
Each witness is questioned, cross examined by the defence, then faces questions on redirect. When the prosecution has completed its case Trump can call his own witnesses to so the same thing. If he wants, since people don't have to put up a defence at all.
I know more about US law and court procedure from the internet than I do UK law.
I can never be sure how much of what Trump says is angry bluster and how much does he just genuinely believe mad things. Take his reaction to how the jury was selected, which 5 seconds of research shows was normal, but he claimed was outrageous on how his team had a limited number of peremptory challenges.
Can you summarise the salacious bits first please 🙏
It was missionary, unprotected, and brief.
That's no fun.
(Which by the sounds of it is also an accurate summary of Ms Daniel's experience.)
Many of these details are not super necessary to the case of course, but since Trump denies any sexual encounter took place at all it has to be gotten into since the jury will need to weigh the credibility of the parties about what happened, and thus why the payoffs occurred.
Has he considered dropping his trousers to demonstrate his penis doesn't look like a mushroom?
Can we recreate the UN Mandate of Palestine? It would be reasonable to place it under the stewardship of a Security Council member that can be trusted to be neutral between both Jewish and Muslim communities (China seems like an obvious choice) until such time as both parties get together on a power-sharing arrangement.
After returning from lunch, Trump’s attorneys are calling for a mistrial. "A lot of the testimony this witness talked about today is way different than the story she was peddling in 2016," Trump attorney Todd Blanche says.
That's not grounds for a mistrial, that's grounds for his attorneys to make hay with the differences in what she was saying then and now.
Trump and his lawyers call everything a reason for a mistrial.
One thing that was news to me out of the civil case he recently lost (the sexual assault one), was even after a jury verdict you can petition the judge to throw out the verdict before it even gets to appeal. He didn't do that, but if you have the funds you have a lot of opportunities to overturn things.
Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
Reform come across like a bloke in the pub who can be heard barking 'all I'm saying is.... ' just before a massive fight breaks out
"I'm not racist. All I'm saying is they're different, uhn't they? They come over 'ere..."
Very satirical, but your position on Israelis seems to be that they are different, an' went over there ...
I'm for a one-state solution from the river to the sea with equal rights regardless of religion or ethnicity, with the right of return for refugees. The existence of the Jewish state does stand in the way of that. No problem though with Jews, Druze, or anyone else who was born there staying there. Just for the record, I am not for an Islamic state of Palestine or in any part of it.
This is where the international left align themselves with the Israeli right. I don't understand it myself - the most obvious path to a one state solution involves Israeli annexation of the West Bank and Gaza.
Do Palestinians really aspire to being Arab Israelis?
The Israeli right want a one-state solution with no Palestinians in it. This is not what the international left want.
Have to agree with the under 10.5% at 17/20... UKIP had a tangible aim - to get an in out referendum on the EU, which also attracted an anti Westminster type of vote. Farage all over the telly too, it was a near perfect storm. I was a member of UKIP, canvassed for them, was a teller at the 2015 GE and almost became a PPC (Ladbrokes had me 200/1 to be the next leader at one point!), but cant really work up much enthusiasm for Reform, I'm not sure why really.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
I don't really know what Reform stand for, but it was clear with 2014-vintage 'Kip. Until late last year I thought Lozza Fox was the leader of Reform until I discovered Reclaim is a different party entirely.
Can we recreate the UN Mandate of Palestine? It would be reasonable to place it under the stewardship of a Security Council member that can be trusted to be neutral between both Jewish and Muslim communities (China seems like an obvious choice) until such time as both parties get together on a power-sharing arrangement.
I don't think it worked out last time that was tried...
Can you summarise the salacious bits first please 🙏
It was missionary, unprotected, and brief.
That's no fun.
(Which by the sounds of it is also an accurate summary of Ms Daniel's experience.)
Many of these details are not super necessary to the case of course, but since Trump denies any sexual encounter took place at all it has to be gotten into since the jury will need to weigh the credibility of the parties about what happened, and thus why the payoffs occurred.
Has he considered dropping his trousers to demonstrate his penis doesn't look like a mushroom?
If not, why not?
There's a popular strain of pailocybe cubensis called Penis Envy which looks exactly like a penis, which might confuse the issue.
Can we recreate the UN Mandate of Palestine? It would be reasonable to place it under the stewardship of a Security Council member that can be trusted to be neutral between both Jewish and Muslim communities (China seems like an obvious choice) until such time as both parties get together on a power-sharing arrangement.
Israel, a nuclear armed state, isn’t going to agree with that and there’s no way of making them.
He knows going to jail for a few hours will only boost him with the Cult I guess.
Joe Walsh, a super anti-Trump conservative is also super free speech, and reckons if Trump is put in jail due to a gag order violation he will win re-election, and he opposes the orders as violating Trump's speech.
I don't really understand that level of belief in 'free' speech, due to not being American I suppose, because even if the specific gag orders Trump is under are seen to be wrong, what if he was directly threatening witnesses, no ambiguity? Courts being able to protect witnesses or proceedings to ensure a fair trial is also a right, why would that go out the window?
Can we recreate the UN Mandate of Palestine? It would be reasonable to place it under the stewardship of a Security Council member that can be trusted to be neutral between both Jewish and Muslim communities (China seems like an obvious choice) until such time as both parties get together on a power-sharing arrangement.
Israel, a nuclear armed state, isn’t going to agree with that and there’s no way of making them.
Also, what masochistic nations would want to involve themselves in that any more than they had to?
He knows going to jail for a few hours will only boost him with the Cult I guess.
Joe Walsh, a super anti-Trump conservative is also super free speech, and reckons if Trump is put in jail due to a gag order violation he will win re-election, and he opposes the orders as violating Trump's speech.
I don't really understand that level of belief in 'free' speech, due to not being American I suppose, because even if the specific gag orders Trump is under are seen to be wrong, what if he was directly threatening witnesses, no ambiguity? Courts being able to protect witnesses or proceedings to ensure a fair trial is also a right, why would that go out the window?
The MAGA crowd think that but a jail sentence would be the final blow that sends Independents to Biden
The Cohen testimony will probably be even more riotus. The man is a convicted liar, which the jury will have to bear in mind, but it's clearly not unheard of for cases to include testimony from those previously convicted of lying, but Trump's team will go bonkers.
It's why the prosecutors have been workind hard to corroborate everything Cohen will claim of course, but it will still be super dirty and the defence apoplectic to perform for their master.
Can we recreate the UN Mandate of Palestine? It would be reasonable to place it under the stewardship of a Security Council member that can be trusted to be neutral between both Jewish and Muslim communities (China seems like an obvious choice) until such time as both parties get together on a power-sharing arrangement.
Israel, a nuclear armed state, isn’t going to agree with that and there’s no way of making them.
Also, what masochistic nations would want to involve themselves in that any more than they had to?
And in any case the Western powers are not going to permit an enemy superpower to set up a military presence in the Mediterranean.
He knows going to jail for a few hours will only boost him with the Cult I guess.
Joe Walsh, a super anti-Trump conservative is also super free speech, and reckons if Trump is put in jail due to a gag order violation he will win re-election, and he opposes the orders as violating Trump's speech.
I don't really understand that level of belief in 'free' speech, due to not being American I suppose, because even if the specific gag orders Trump is under are seen to be wrong, what if he was directly threatening witnesses, no ambiguity? Courts being able to protect witnesses or proceedings to ensure a fair trial is also a right, why would that go out the window?
The MAGA crowd think that but a jail sentence would be the final blow that sends Independents to Biden
He didn't mean a jail sentence upon conviction, he mean jailing him for a gag order violation, and that would turn independents etc.
I hope he's wrong about that, but he knows the GOP base and MAGA, since he used to be one - he is not some Romney-esque figure.
He knows going to jail for a few hours will only boost him with the Cult I guess.
Joe Walsh, a super anti-Trump conservative is also super free speech, and reckons if Trump is put in jail due to a gag order violation he will win re-election, and he opposes the orders as violating Trump's speech.
I don't really understand that level of belief in 'free' speech, due to not being American I suppose, because even if the specific gag orders Trump is under are seen to be wrong, what if he was directly threatening witnesses, no ambiguity? Courts being able to protect witnesses or proceedings to ensure a fair trial is also a right, why would that go out the window?
The MAGA crowd think that but a jail sentence would be the final blow that sends Independents to Biden
Any 'jail' sentence will just be Trump hanging out with the secret service detail, no prison guards or other prisoners would have any access to him and the whole thing would be a circus.
Can we recreate the UN Mandate of Palestine? It would be reasonable to place it under the stewardship of a Security Council member that can be trusted to be neutral between both Jewish and Muslim communities (China seems like an obvious choice) until such time as both parties get together on a power-sharing arrangement.
I'm not particularly sure I'd be keen on giving China a base in the Eastern Med.
He knows going to jail for a few hours will only boost him with the Cult I guess.
Joe Walsh, a super anti-Trump conservative is also super free speech, and reckons if Trump is put in jail due to a gag order violation he will win re-election, and he opposes the orders as violating Trump's speech.
I don't really understand that level of belief in 'free' speech, due to not being American I suppose, because even if the specific gag orders Trump is under are seen to be wrong, what if he was directly threatening witnesses, no ambiguity? Courts being able to protect witnesses or proceedings to ensure a fair trial is also a right, why would that go out the window?
The MAGA crowd think that but a jail sentence would be the final blow that sends Independents to Biden
He didn't mean a jail sentence upon conviction, he mean jailing him for a gag order violation, and that would turn independents etc.
I hope he's wrong about that, but he knows the GOP base and MAGA, since he used to be one - he is not some Romney-esque figure.
As I said this morning, even if Trump was convicted and jailed for murder the MAGA crowd would still vote for him and he would probably get 35-40% of the vote still.
However the Independent swing voters who decide elections (and who voted for Trump or 3rd parties overall in 2016 but voted mostly for Biden in 2020) would hold their nose and re elect Biden despite being unhappy with him if Trump is convicted
Can we recreate the UN Mandate of Palestine? It would be reasonable to place it under the stewardship of a Security Council member that can be trusted to be neutral between both Jewish and Muslim communities (China seems like an obvious choice) until such time as both parties get together on a power-sharing arrangement.
I don't think it worked out last time that was tried...
I've just finished read 'A Line in the Sand', which goes into a bit of detail around the Imperialist wrangling between Britain and France over the ME and what comes across in the book is that the British were in way over their heads in the Mandate of Palestine and really had no clue what to do about it.
He knows going to jail for a few hours will only boost him with the Cult I guess.
Joe Walsh, a super anti-Trump conservative is also super free speech, and reckons if Trump is put in jail due to a gag order violation he will win re-election, and he opposes the orders as violating Trump's speech.
I don't really understand that level of belief in 'free' speech, due to not being American I suppose, because even if the specific gag orders Trump is under are seen to be wrong, what if he was directly threatening witnesses, no ambiguity? Courts being able to protect witnesses or proceedings to ensure a fair trial is also a right, why would that go out the window?
The MAGA crowd think that but a jail sentence would be the final blow that sends Independents to Biden
Any 'jail' sentence will just be Trump hanging out with the secret service detail, no prison guards or other prisoners would have any access to him and the whole thing would be a circus.
I remain very confident he will never see a day in any kind of prison.
Even if convicted there will be years of appeals and they won't put him inside (or whatever pseudo-jail arrangement they need to come up with), and assuming he has not been re-elected President I would not be surprised to see him physically deterioriate quickly as the really serious trials cannot be put off any longer. He'll be 78, not in great shape, under tremendous stress, and facing very serious jailtime, and even his political sway would reduce after a second loss (assuming his intended campaign of violence and state interference in that event does not succeed).
The NY is still about crimes, but even if convicted may not result in a jail sentence, so as stressed as he will be about it he can handle it just about.
Can we recreate the UN Mandate of Palestine? It would be reasonable to place it under the stewardship of a Security Council member that can be trusted to be neutral between both Jewish and Muslim communities (China seems like an obvious choice) until such time as both parties get together on a power-sharing arrangement.
I don't think it worked out last time that was tried...
I've just finished read 'A Line in the Sand', which goes into a bit of detail around the Imperialist wrangling between Britain and France over the ME and what comes across in the book is that the British were in way over their heads in the Mandate of Palestine and really had no clue what to do about it.
Finding out the details on things generally shows those involved were not in as masterful command of a situation as they or history may have imagined.
He knows going to jail for a few hours will only boost him with the Cult I guess.
Joe Walsh, a super anti-Trump conservative is also super free speech, and reckons if Trump is put in jail due to a gag order violation he will win re-election, and he opposes the orders as violating Trump's speech.
I don't really understand that level of belief in 'free' speech, due to not being American I suppose, because even if the specific gag orders Trump is under are seen to be wrong, what if he was directly threatening witnesses, no ambiguity? Courts being able to protect witnesses or proceedings to ensure a fair trial is also a right, why would that go out the window?
The MAGA crowd think that but a jail sentence would be the final blow that sends Independents to Biden
Any 'jail' sentence will just be Trump hanging out with the secret service detail, no prison guards or other prisoners would have any access to him and the whole thing would be a circus.
I remain very confident he will never see a day in any kind of prison.
Even if convicted there will be years of appeals and they won't put him inside (or whatever pseudo-jail arrangement they need to come up with), and assuming he has not been re-elected President I would not be surprised to see him physically deterioriate quickly as the really serious trials cannot be put off any longer. He'll be 78, not in great shape, under tremendous stress, and facing very serious jailtime, and even his political sway would reduce after a second loss (assuming his intended campaign of violence and state interference in that event does not succeed).
The NY is still about crimes, but even if convicted may not result in a jail sentence, so as stressed as he will be about it he can handle it just about.
I suspect any convictions will disappear in the Supreme Court in any case. Stick him in prison and you're about a night from civil war anyway. Regardless it will be tit for tat from here. They'll go gunning for Clinton, Biden, Obama etc Grim times ahead for the States
Looking forward to the vitriolic response from Daily Mail to this:
"At Sulkava prison in Finland, I stood on the edge of a lake where, in the summer, prisoners fished for their dinner and foraged in the woodland for mushrooms and lingonberries. “Being here and able to cook for myself brings me a sense of normality, dignity and self-sufficiency,” one prisoner told me."
Appetising, delicious food served up to prisoners? It works for the Nordic countries
Teaching them how to cook for when they get out is not a small thing. Not every prisoner is a PB aficionado who can discourse learnedly on this hot sauce or that vegan recipe.
I agree. I was being flippant.
Uk prisons are a disgrace.
Oh, you didn't come over as flippant at all - just savagely ironic. And rightly so.
I thought teaching people to cook was violently middle class?
I recall the outrage when Delia published a book starting with how to cook an egg.
He knows going to jail for a few hours will only boost him with the Cult I guess.
Joe Walsh, a super anti-Trump conservative is also super free speech, and reckons if Trump is put in jail due to a gag order violation he will win re-election, and he opposes the orders as violating Trump's speech.
I don't really understand that level of belief in 'free' speech, due to not being American I suppose, because even if the specific gag orders Trump is under are seen to be wrong, what if he was directly threatening witnesses, no ambiguity? Courts being able to protect witnesses or proceedings to ensure a fair trial is also a right, why would that go out the window?
The MAGA crowd think that but a jail sentence would be the final blow that sends Independents to Biden
Any 'jail' sentence will just be Trump hanging out with the secret service detail, no prison guards or other prisoners would have any access to him and the whole thing would be a circus.
I remain very confident he will never see a day in any kind of prison.
Even if convicted there will be years of appeals and they won't put him inside (or whatever pseudo-jail arrangement they need to come up with), and assuming he has not been re-elected President I would not be surprised to see him physically deterioriate quickly as the really serious trials cannot be put off any longer. He'll be 78, not in great shape, under tremendous stress, and facing very serious jailtime, and even his political sway would reduce after a second loss (assuming his intended campaign of violence and state interference in that event does not succeed).
The NY is still about crimes, but even if convicted may not result in a jail sentence, so as stressed as he will be about it he can handle it just about.
I suspect any convictions will disappear in the Supreme Court in any case. Stick him in prison and you're about a night from civil war anyway. Regardless it will be tit for tat from here. They'll go gunning for Clinton, Biden, Obama etc Grim times ahead for the States
It's just not as easy to go after Clinton, Biden, Obama, though I'm sure they will try.
By his own legal submissions Trump's business and personal arrangements appear to be a chaotic mess even if where they are not criminal (and the organisation as a whole has been found to be guilty of fraud).
And by Trump's own legal arguments nothing any of them did during their presidencies, even non-presidential things, should be grounds to charge them anyway. And even without that argument a lot of it really would be immune if done as president. And pretty much anything else would be out of time on statute of limitations.
When he says it would open the door to others being charged he's presuming everyone has acted like him their whole careers.
Can we recreate the UN Mandate of Palestine? It would be reasonable to place it under the stewardship of a Security Council member that can be trusted to be neutral between both Jewish and Muslim communities (China seems like an obvious choice) until such time as both parties get together on a power-sharing arrangement.
I don't think it worked out last time that was tried...
I've just finished read 'A Line in the Sand', which goes into a bit of detail around the Imperialist wrangling between Britain and France over the ME and what comes across in the book is that the British were in way over their heads in the Mandate of Palestine and really had no clue what to do about it.
Finding out the details on things generally shows those involved were not in as masterful command of a situation as they or history may have imagined.
Having established a Jewish national home via the Balfour declaration we then denied Jewish refugees from the Nazis sanctuary both before and after the war. Its like we wanted for both sides to hate us.
Another good walk today, 43km, and I've got just beyond Pamplona to one of its suburbs called Villava. This leaves me with only about 63km left, but quite a bit of climbing as I get into the Pyrenees
It felt a shame not to linger longer in Pamplona itself. It's a beautiful city, full of great places to eat. But I have been here before, and I'll be back in the next few days. I made contact today with the daughter of a lovely lady on my mail round
She lives very near Pamplona, so I've decided to come straight back here (hopefully by public transport) after I've finished the Camino. She seemed on the phone to be just as kind and sweet as her Mum. She'll come and get me from Pamplona and I'll stay a night or two at her place, before heading on to San Sebastian
I'm in a rather nice, but quite pricey, hotel tonight. Probably pricey because the only room left was a junior suite on the top floor with a terrace and a "massage shower"
Dinner at the hotel restaurant is more reasonably priced. I'm having seafood rice to start followed by grilled cuttlefish. A bottle of local red, which is very nice indeed, is included in the 16€ set menu price
They didn't give me a wine glass so I'm drinking the wine from a 400ml water glass
Comments
The good news for the government only goes so far though. They can’t double count Reform swingback. If the vote didn’t turn up at the locals then it’s not there to squeeze - the Reform squeeze is already reflected in the Tory numbers. Which is one reason they were better - a bit, though not enough - than polling.
Compare that to a single worker family earning £80,000 in the UK who will be paying £19,500 in income tax with NI on top.
Figures from https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/finance-taxation/taxation/calculation-tax-liability/rates/ if anyone cares.
With "Beano" even better.
Maybe it's because I was single and lonely with nothing better to do in 2014 and now I've got a missus and two kids!
Brendan Clarke-Smith MP
@Bren4Bassetlaw
📮🗳️ Postal voting - it’s time to scrap it.
https://twitter.com/Bren4Bassetlaw/status/1787744981798527463
Afterwards hopefully Labour will implement something sensible to demonstrate how crap the current plan is.
"Of course I want to work on something real, to build something... not just dream about it", said one friend.
(Northern Italy is rather different, of course)
Whether that approach works in a General Election, where the Conservatives are the incumbent, I'm not so sure.
"I don't even particularly like Hamas". Take a look at yourself. Have a dark night of the soul. Realise what you are supporting because you are consumed by hatred. You've become so deranged you're on the side of genocidal fascist maniacs like those you claim to want to oppose.
Then take a breath and begin to think about how to bring about peace rather than just wanting genocide for those you don't like.
Yours truly was one of the first to file, for the humble office of Democratic Precinct Officer aka PCO for my somewhat less humble voting precinct. IF nobody else files for this position, will be deemed elected by default; on the other hand, if someone else does file, then race goes on the primary ballot.
Big news so far of candidate filing statewide, is the surprise Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley for US House in WA CD04 (eastern WA interior Columbia River basin) against incumbent Republican congressman Dan Newhouse (one of the GOP who voted to impeach Trump after his attempted putsch). AND also against another Republican already endorsed by DJT.
Note that Smiley ran for US Senate in 2022, made primary Top Two (regardless of party) to advance to general election, with lost big versus incumbent Democratic US Senator Patty Murray. However, Smiley carried CD02 by wide margin. She raised a lot of money back then, and may well be able to do so again. IF she makes it into the Top Two for US House in 2024, she has potential to be strongest challenge ever faced by Dan Newhouse in his congressional career.
Also a Democrat in the race -ho now has some chance of making the Top Two in August thus advancing to Nov. general election, along with Newhouse, PROVIDED the two GOP challengers split the MAGA-maniac vote enough to allow the Dem to pass them both in final primary result. Which BTW is just what happened two years ago.
Our entire society has been configured to reduce TFR for the past two or three generations, and that pressure has only increased.
Even if government policy does reverse tomorrow, it'll likely take a couple of generations for the cultural assumptions to follow suit.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/smartphone-ban-iphone-verona-b1156115.html
https://twitter.com/InternetH0F/status/1787724123382173733?s=19
After returning from lunch, Trump’s attorneys are calling for a mistrial. "A lot of the testimony this witness talked about today is way different than the story she was peddling in 2016," Trump attorney Todd Blanche says.
We've already change from indefinite postal vote, to requiring re-application every three(?) years, and I think we now also require NINOs - though those aren't a proof of identity, plenty of people have more than one for all sorts of reasons.
If we actually wanted to secure the process, we'd put in place a similar system to that used for passports: get someone to vouch for you.
It'll now be up to the next government to make any changes, so expect the likes of Brendan C-S to scream about gerrymandering if they do take up his suggestion!
"At Sulkava prison in Finland, I stood on the edge of a lake where, in the summer, prisoners fished for their dinner and foraged in the woodland for mushrooms and lingonberries. “Being here and able to cook for myself brings me a sense of normality, dignity and self-sufficiency,” one prisoner told me."
Appetising, delicious food served up to prisoners? It works for the Nordic countries
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/07/prisoners-nordic-countries-cook-eat-forage-britain
DANIELS: “So I took it from him and I said turn around, and I swatted him” right on the butt
DANIELS: “and he was much more polite”
I'm generally pro-Israel - but it's a bit daft to complain that no-one else wants to give a home to people who already have homes.
Does anyone have industrial strength mind bleach?
Uk prisons are a disgrace.
And the 'Refuk' abbreviation is pretty unfortunate, too.
Perhaps they should have called themselves the Popular Party or something like that? Or consider merging with the SDP and either stealing their name or calling the combined entity the Social Reform Party / SRP.
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1787885410523201641
She says it was hard to dress because her hands were shaking so hard. "I just left as fast as I could."
Daniels says Trump did not ask her to keep their sexual encounter confidential.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1787885233259315670
(Which by the sounds of it is also an accurate summary of Ms Daniel's experience.)
Not that I think policy should be made based on where your great-great-great-great…-great-grandparents lived.
We - well I - accuse the EU of not having a meaningful demos. This would be that taken to a total extreme, with half the population having very different ideas to the other.
Maybe you could see a coalition of liberal Jews and liberal Palestinians. But remind me, how has the liberal centre done in Northern Ireland?
This testimony truly is icky.
I mean what kind of utter monster tells a woman he is about to have sex with that she reminds him of his daughter?
Where you are right is that most Arab states have crapped on the Palestinians for decades.
Third Millennium = Trump & Daniels
So history DOES rhyme.
Do Palestinians really aspire to being Arab Israelis?
"The conferencing is over, but Justice Merchan says that, with the consent of the defense lawyers, Susan Hoffinger, the prosecutor, has stepped out to confer with Stormy Daniels about keeping her testimony within the confines set by the judge, and avoiding any “unnecessary” details."
NY Times
I know more about US law and court procedure from the internet than I do UK law.
I can never be sure how much of what Trump says is angry bluster and how much does he just genuinely believe mad things. Take his reaction to how the jury was selected, which 5 seconds of research shows was normal, but he claimed was outrageous on how his team had a limited number of peremptory challenges.
If not, why not?
One thing that was news to me out of the civil case he recently lost (the sexual assault one), was even after a jury verdict you can petition the judge to throw out the verdict before it even gets to appeal. He didn't do that, but if you have the funds you have a lot of opportunities to overturn things.
I don't really understand that level of belief in 'free' speech, due to not being American I suppose, because even if the specific gag orders Trump is under are seen to be wrong, what if he was directly threatening witnesses, no ambiguity? Courts being able to protect witnesses or proceedings to ensure a fair trial is also a right, why would that go out the window?
It's why the prosecutors have been workind hard to corroborate everything Cohen will claim of course, but it will still be super dirty and the defence apoplectic to perform for their master.
I hope he's wrong about that, but he knows the GOP base and MAGA, since he used to be one - he is not some Romney-esque figure.
However the Independent swing voters who decide elections (and who voted for Trump or 3rd parties overall in 2016 but voted mostly for Biden in 2020) would hold their nose and re elect Biden despite being unhappy with him if Trump is convicted
Even if convicted there will be years of appeals and they won't put him inside (or whatever pseudo-jail arrangement they need to come up with), and assuming he has not been re-elected President I would not be surprised to see him physically deterioriate quickly as the really serious trials cannot be put off any longer. He'll be 78, not in great shape, under tremendous stress, and facing very serious jailtime, and even his political sway would reduce after a second loss (assuming his intended campaign of violence and state interference in that event does not succeed).
The NY is still about crimes, but even if convicted may not result in a jail sentence, so as stressed as he will be about it he can handle it just about.
Stick him in prison and you're about a night from civil war anyway. Regardless it will be tit for tat from here. They'll go gunning for Clinton, Biden, Obama etc
Grim times ahead for the States
And
I recall the outrage when Delia published a book starting with how to cook an egg.
By his own legal submissions Trump's business and personal arrangements appear to be a chaotic mess even if where they are not criminal (and the organisation as a whole has been found to be guilty of fraud).
And by Trump's own legal arguments nothing any of them did during their presidencies, even non-presidential things, should be grounds to charge them anyway. And even without that argument a lot of it really would be immune if done as president. And pretty much anything else would be out of time on statute of limitations.
When he says it would open the door to others being charged he's presuming everyone has acted like him their whole careers.
It felt a shame not to linger longer in Pamplona itself. It's a beautiful city, full of great places to eat. But I have been here before, and I'll be back in the next few days. I made contact today with the daughter of a lovely lady on my mail round
She lives very near Pamplona, so I've decided to come straight back here (hopefully by public transport) after I've finished the Camino. She seemed on the phone to be just as kind and sweet as her Mum. She'll come and get me from Pamplona and I'll stay a night or two at her place, before heading on to San Sebastian
I'm in a rather nice, but quite pricey, hotel tonight. Probably pricey because the only room left was a junior suite on the top floor with a terrace and a "massage shower"
Dinner at the hotel restaurant is more reasonably priced. I'm having seafood rice to start followed by grilled cuttlefish. A bottle of local red, which is very nice indeed, is included in the 16€ set menu price
They didn't give me a wine glass so I'm drinking the wine from a 400ml water glass
https://x.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1787736553856323805
What kind of dodgy foreigner are you?
Next you’ll be suggesting going out of the house without waxing your moustache properly.