So, since we're onto the topic of the next general election in Scotland... what will happen to the current Lib Dem seats?
Imo:
Orkney & Shetland - easy Lib Dem hold Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - narrow Lib Dem hold Ross, Skye & Lochaber - easy Lib Dem hold Inverness - LAB GAIN Argyll & Bute - SNP GAIN Gordon - SNP GAIN Aberdeenshire West - TORY GAIN?? NE Fife - Lab Gain? (This was the hardest one to call for me, I'm aware Labour have never come close to winning this seat. But they do have a lot of organisation/activists to draw on nearby in Fife in general, and I definitely can't see the LDs holding on without Ming Campbell) E Dunbartonshire - LAB GAIN W Edinburgh - LAB GAIN Berwickshire - TORY GAIN
In addition, I think there might be a few SNP gains from Labour (including Falkirk?)
My reasoning is that I expect the bile that the Yes campaign pours on their unionist compatriots will be redirected into internal SNP feuds once again, leading to severe bloodletting. Last time round it led to Salmond being expelled from the party. It is not unreasonable to see something similar happening again. It would be hard to know who would benefit most at the Westminster parliament. It is hard to see the LDs or tories gaining seats, so I expect the SNP losses to be less catastrophic than 1979.
Certainly a point of view - but if you are looking for someone to run the country then who else could you vote for? Especially if you aren't a fan of voting for the proverbial middling-lower primates with red rosettes pinned to their chest fur?
And even on your score there may be an element of keeping the options open in case the Tories and Kippers try to drag Scotland out of the EU.
I reluctantly agree Carnyx. Although I could not bring myself to vote for them an SNP admistration has, on the whole, not been any worse and in some ways better than a SLAB adminstration.
I have been saying for over a year on here that after Scotland votes no I expect the SNP to pick up seats although these will mainly be as a result of the collapse of the Scottish Lib Dems rather than Labour.
Not so sure about Labour, in the UK GE: their USP in the UK GE is they are not Tories or LDs but now (a) the SNP are muscling in on that and (b) they've been in bed with the Tories and LDs (even if they try to hide it by the political equivalent of parking around the corner and sneaking out before dawn) for much of the referendum campaign. Hard to say how it will go.
If there were a series of close Labour/SNP marginals I might agree with you but there really aren't and most require substantial swings. At a time when Labour is highly motivated to restore a Labour government this seems a big ask for me. The Lib Dems are easy meat by comparison, especially anywhere south of Inverness.
A lot depends on how much the SNP implodes, and whether the LibDems and Tories can pick up some of the wreckage. A decisive no vote and growing Scottish economy, combined with a lacklustre London centered Labour party and a magnanimous approach to victory could lead to renewed enthusiasm for Unionist parties in Scotland. Stranger things have happened, Mrs Thatchers conservatives were the main benificaries of the SNP collapse of May 79.
So, since we're onto the topic of the next general election in Scotland... what will happen to the current Lib Dem seats?
Imo:
Orkney & Shetland - easy Lib Dem hold Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - narrow Lib Dem hold Ross, Skye & Lochaber - easy Lib Dem hold Inverness - LAB GAIN Argyll & Bute - SNP GAIN Gordon - SNP GAIN Aberdeenshire West - TORY GAIN?? NE Fife - Lab Gain? (This was the hardest one to call for me, I'm aware Labour have never come close to winning this seat. But they do have a lot of organisation/activists to draw on nearby in Fife in general, and I definitely can't see the LDs holding on without Ming Campbell) E Dunbartonshire - LAB GAIN W Edinburgh - LAB GAIN Berwickshire - TORY GAIN
In addition, I think there might be a few SNP gains from Labour (including Falkirk?)
Shock and indeed outrage as former Labour party leader plans to donate money to Labour party shock.
The level of bought influence in the Labour party, and we need to know how much influence the Labour party is going to buy over the Labour party with this donation. The influence of a centre right donor like Blair in donating his money to his party proves the Laboir party is under the thumb of the Labour party.....
What I find funny is that Blair is taking his investment banking blood money and using it to fund the Labour party's efforts to erase the shameful memory of Blair's legacy. You couldn't make it up. But if Tories want to protest investment banking cash flowing into party coffers they should check how their own party is funded.
My reasoning is that I expect the bile that the Yes campaign pours on their unionist compatriots will be redirected into internal SNP feuds once again, leading to severe bloodletting. Last time round it led to Salmond being expelled from the party. It is not unreasonable to see something similar happening again.
Yes, a No vote could result in a nationalist implosion amid rancour and recrimination. In such a scenario you can bet that the vague and botched currency policy will be cited as the most significant blunder, and that will be laid right at Salmond and the SNP leadership's door. I can envisage a vast chunk of the party's upper echelons being cast into the wilderness as dream wreckers. It all sounds rather fun!
A lot depends on how much the SNP implodes, and whether the LibDems and Tories can pick up some of the wreckage. A decisive no vote and growing Scottish economy, combined with a lacklustre London centered Labour party and a magnanimous approach to victory could lead to renewed enthusiasm for Unionist parties in Scotland. Stranger things have happened, Mrs Thatchers conservatives were the main benificaries of the SNP collapse of May 79.
So, since we're onto the topic of the next general election in Scotland... what will happen to the current Lib Dem seats?
Imo:
Orkney & Shetland - easy Lib Dem hold Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - narrow Lib Dem hold Ross, Skye & Lochaber - easy Lib Dem hold Inverness - LAB GAIN Argyll & Bute - SNP GAIN Gordon - SNP GAIN Aberdeenshire West - TORY GAIN?? NE Fife - Lab Gain? (This was the hardest one to call for me, I'm aware Labour have never come close to winning this seat. But they do have a lot of organisation/activists to draw on nearby in Fife in general, and I definitely can't see the LDs holding on without Ming Campbell) E Dunbartonshire - LAB GAIN W Edinburgh - LAB GAIN Berwickshire - TORY GAIN
In addition, I think there might be a few SNP gains from Labour (including Falkirk?)
Inverness will be held by Danny Alexander and the challengers will be SNP not Labour . The chances of Labour in NE Fife are zero . The local elections in 2013 had approx figures LD 8300 SNP 6200 Con 4200 Lab 3500 and an Ind in Cuppar who polled 1556 votes and whose 2nd preferences split roughly 2:1:1:1 in favour of the Lib Dems . There has been a small but steady improvement in Lib Dem support in Scotland over the last 6 months . Today's Ipsos Mori poll has their Holyrood VI at 10% nearly double the 2012 performance .
Fox, agreed. There does seem to be an awfully big assumption that there will be absolutely no internal political fall out from a No result in the Indy Referendum between September and the next GE within the SNP. Salmond and his team have form for not being good expectation management, and a lot of grass roots nationalists have invested a lot in this Referendum, so there will be some sort of blame game. While it might make some nationalists even more angry and bitter towards those that were actively involved in the Better Together campaign or simple No voters, there will be a post mortem on what went wrong. First up for scrutiny will be the SNP Government's own White Paper that was supposed to be the big game changer in the campaign, and in the polls.
There is often a mistaken perception that the SNP are very united party in Scotland. But MSPs John Finnie and Jean Urquhart quit the SNP over Nato policy back in 2012, and others in the party have definitely been equally uneasy with some of the SNP positioning on some key issues during the Indy debate. There was also some problems with infighting at grass roots level in a couple of key constituencies that the SNP targeted at the last GE as well. I am just not sure that some SNP members will be all that fired up and willing to immediately switch to campaigning for MORE SNP representation at Westminster so soon after a defeat in the upcoming Referendum in light of this.
My reasoning is that I expect the bile that the Yes campaign pours on their unionist compatriots will be redirected into internal SNP feuds once again, leading to severe bloodletting. Last time round it led to Salmond being expelled from the party. It is not unreasonable to see something similar happening again. It would be hard to know who would benefit most at the Westminster parliament. It is hard to see the LDs or tories gaining seats, so I expect the SNP losses to be less catastrophic than 1979.
Certainly a point of view - but if you are looking for someone to run the country then who else could you vote for? Especially if you aren't a fan of voting for the proverbial middling-lower primates with red rosettes pinned to their chest fur?
And even on your score there may be an element of keeping the options open in case the Tories and Kippers try to drag Scotland out of the EU.
Its interesting to note just how little Ed Miliband has got involved or focussed on the Independence campaign, he appears totally detached from it, and seems happy to leave all the heavy lifting to others within his party or the other Better Together parties. Having picked a row with the Unite last year, he has seemed far more wrapped up in the internal workings of his party rather than on the future of the United Kingdom with or without Scotland. Its going to be interesting to see if he can get the Scottish Labour vote to turn out in anything like the same numbers they managed in 2010 now that we have had a full term of a Conservative/Libdem Coalition Government, especially one that will deliver on a No vote in the Indy Referendum.
A lot depends on how much the SNP implodes, and whether the LibDems and Tories can pick up some of the wreckage. A decisive no vote and growing Scottish economy, combined with a lacklustre London centered Labour party and a magnanimous approach to victory could lead to renewed enthusiasm for Unionist parties in Scotland. Stranger things have happened, Mrs Thatchers conservatives were the main benificaries of the SNP collapse of May 79.
So, since we're onto the topic of the next general election in Scotland... what will happen to the current Lib Dem seats?
Imo:
Orkney & Shetland - easy Lib Dem hold Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - narrow Lib Dem hold Ross, Skye & Lochaber - easy Lib Dem hold Inverness - LAB GAIN Argyll & Bute - SNP GAIN Gordon - SNP GAIN Aberdeenshire West - TORY GAIN?? NE Fife - Lab Gain? (This was the hardest one to call for me, I'm aware Labour have never come close to winning this seat. But they do have a lot of organisation/activists to draw on nearby in Fife in general, and I definitely can't see the LDs holding on without Ming Campbell) E Dunbartonshire - LAB GAIN W Edinburgh - LAB GAIN Berwickshire - TORY GAIN
In addition, I think there might be a few SNP gains from Labour (including Falkirk?)
Comments
http://uk.reuters.com/news/uk
Imo:
Orkney & Shetland - easy Lib Dem hold
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - narrow Lib Dem hold
Ross, Skye & Lochaber - easy Lib Dem hold
Inverness - LAB GAIN
Argyll & Bute - SNP GAIN
Gordon - SNP GAIN
Aberdeenshire West - TORY GAIN??
NE Fife - Lab Gain? (This was the hardest one to call for me, I'm aware Labour have never come close to winning this seat. But they do have a lot of organisation/activists to draw on nearby in Fife in general, and I definitely can't see the LDs holding on without Ming Campbell)
E Dunbartonshire - LAB GAIN
W Edinburgh - LAB GAIN
Berwickshire - TORY GAIN
In addition, I think there might be a few SNP gains from Labour (including Falkirk?)
The level of bought influence in the Labour party, and we need to know how much influence the Labour party is going to buy over the Labour party with this donation. The influence of a centre right donor like Blair in donating his money to his party proves the Laboir party is under the thumb of the Labour party.....
What I find funny is that Blair is taking his investment banking blood money and using it to fund the Labour party's efforts to erase the shameful memory of Blair's legacy. You couldn't make it up. But if Tories want to protest investment banking cash flowing into party coffers they should check how their own party is funded.
OK it was Betfair Lab Maj/NOM but still
Reactionaries 40%
LD 8300 SNP 6200 Con 4200 Lab 3500 and an Ind in Cuppar who polled 1556 votes and whose 2nd preferences split roughly 2:1:1:1 in favour of the Lib Dems .
There has been a small but steady improvement in Lib Dem support in Scotland over the last 6 months . Today's Ipsos Mori poll has their Holyrood VI at 10% nearly double the 2012 performance .
There is often a mistaken perception that the SNP are very united party in Scotland. But MSPs John Finnie and Jean Urquhart quit the SNP over Nato policy back in 2012, and others in the party have definitely been equally uneasy with some of the SNP positioning on some key issues during the Indy debate. There was also some problems with infighting at grass roots level in a couple of key constituencies that the SNP targeted at the last GE as well. I am just not sure that some SNP members will be all that fired up and willing to immediately switch to campaigning for MORE SNP representation at Westminster so soon after a defeat in the upcoming Referendum in light of this.