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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From data already public from latest ComRes phone poll it looks as though the LAB will get a boost
Frustratingly the Indy is releasing its monthly ComRes phone poll in parts and we don’t have the voting intention numbers yet. Given the cost of carrying out phone polls this is understandable but we’d all love to see the actual numbers.
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In Scotland it's going to be a NO.
In the GE it's going to be PM Redward with a decent majority.
However ruling does not apply in Scotland.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/mar/03/itv-channel-5-to-show-ukip-election-broadcasts
Whiskeys from nations other than Scotland are indeed (usually) spelt with an e!!!
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/03/ten-handy-phrases-for-bluffing-your-way-through-the-ukraine-crisis/
I think we've ticked most of these off on pb during the last few days (I may even have used one or two of them myself).
Fair point sir. Why are ComRes dribbling out the raw data though - they must know what Mike will do with it! Silly from them.
I hope my Battersea bet is safe
Nah - lets be serious for a minute. There are still cards to play and a GE campaign to go.
It had UKIP on 14 last month.
Jack always publishes the headline figures long before the internals.
He steals Pork's acorns.
Still as it seems some new posters need all the practise they can get in analysing data correctly, maybe OGH is treating this dry run as a set of stabilisers... one day they might even have the confidence to talk about betting
Same sum for last night's Yougov is 93.
6% more to minor parties ??!?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10674124/Independence-support-drops-after-George-Osbornes-Scottish-pound-warning.html
"The findings were bad news for Mr Salmond, who will today use a major speech in London to argue that the Chancellor’s speech on sterling was a major strategic error as it encapsulates Westminster’s “diktats from on high” to Scotland."
1. On the role of the EU
The European Union “only facilitated the conflict in Ukraine” when it announced that “the Association Agreement is incompatible with the Customs Union agreement between Kiev and Moscow”
2. On the role of NATO
“this alliance does not have a political purpose, and its actions do not help to build trust, but on the contrary, create more and more concerns”. Measures to solve the Ukrainian crisis “should be solely diplomatic”
Schroeder's criticisms of these two trans-national organisations have been widely aired in the western press but this is an early example of establishment political figures stating similar conclusions in public.
The US, UK and EU simply pouring money and 'assistance' into Kiev without first allowing a stable geo-political to establish is a waste of limited resources and a squandering of diplomatic capital.
Similarly, any intent to exclude Russia from economic support plans for The Ukraine, as punishment for Putin's actions, will simply frustrate the implementation of such plans and aggravate the wider threats of the overall crisis.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490
I'd b slightly worried if I was in his position but he's a far more experienced gambler than I so he's probably not.
Also Hills are on the wrong side of the arb with their 1-4 on No. Which by implication is fantastic value.
The remainder is basically a protest vote distributed more or less equally among the three minor parties, two of which seem to think they could make a better fist than Labour of its anti-business, anti-enterprise, anti-jobs, anti-prosperity agenda.
Oh dear, at least Antifrank and Mark Senior took me on for evens at 40%. I'll certainly offer that.
My thinking is that the referendum is a battle of Head vs Heart, and that Salmond will win on the latter but comprehensively lose on the former. So I anticipate that it will be a decisive but nonetheless reluctant No, leaving voters favourably disposed towards the SNP and keen to give them a consolation prize, which can be rationalised as supporting the party which 'stood up for Scotland' even if, when push comes to shove, Scots overwhelmingly decide that independence is a leap too far into the dark.
In addition, Labour, as the SNP's main rivals in Scotland, don't seem to be providing any kind of emotional or strategic leadership in the referendum debate; it's hard to see Scottish attitudes towards Labour being enhanced by the campaign, or by their tie-up with Osborne and the Conservatives in Westminster in dissing Scottish dreams. Given that the Tories are thinly supported in Scotland, and the Scottish LibDems seem to be heading for an electoral car-crash, then, in this zero-sum game, the beneficiaries must be the SNP.
I'm therefore expecting a net and possibly quite large swing towards the SNP in the 2015 GE. However, in terms of seats, there may not be a big change, since the majorities which the SNP will be trying to overturn in its top targets are all higher than 10% and mostly higher than 20%. It would be interesting to look at this in more detail, but I do think Shadsy's 4/5 on SNP getting over 6.5 seats is worth a punt.
The fact Tories cannot see this is too funny.
http://standpointmag.co.uk/features-march-14-even-a-fading-nigel-farage-can-deny-david-cameron-victory-iain-martin-ukip
"Even a fading Nigel Farage can deny Cameron victory"
Amusingly, Scotland is a country in which most of its parties are minor parties, which seems somehow apt.
'Support for Scottish independence has dropped since George Osborne rejected a currency union, according to an opinion poll published as Alex Salmond today calls the Chancellor’s intervention a “monumental error”.'
Oh dear. He really is Comical Alex, isn't he?
The City pays the taxes which allow Labour voters to survive without working.
The fact Lefties cannot see this isn't funny at all: it is frightening.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/hugh-reilly-labour-has-lost-its-way-1-3327113
There are also other factors which spring to mind as pointing that way but I won't bother you with them as I have work to do!
One caveat: other beneficiaries might be UKIP, Greens, Trots or the Monster Raving mob, to some extent. Though I would be very surprised to see anyone other than the Greens, and perhaps a revived Sheridan-style leftie party, pick up more than the odd list seat at Holyrood.
Yes vote >= 40% means I pay you; and hence
Yes vote <40% means you pay me
I would have £20 with you on that too. Depends how much of it you want obviously, you may have enough.
I would think I could better off a bookie but they're all blocked from the office I'm in and when I get home I'm always too busy to look...
I can see it now:
Paxo/O' Neill : "You've lost Mr Salmond" "61 to 39"
Salmond turns to TV camera, a wry smile on his face "The important thing is that the Scottish people have decided their own fate. Now obviously we'd have preferred to have won but sometimes things don't work out that way"
...
.
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge83/i06.htm
Does anyone else find rather peculiar the idea that an electorate would vote for a secessionist party, but against secession? What does it achieve?
The idea that the SNP view of the world could go from 20% support in 2010 (when nobody was scrutinising what their big idea actually entailed) to more than 50% 4 years later (after such scrutiny has taken place) is clearly so far-fetched as not to be worth thinking about. The interesting thing is how far they can stretch it from 20%, my best guess being low 30s.
F1 pre-season piece is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/f1-2014-second-and-third-tests.html
A discussion about spread betting has begun in the comments. I don't do that (too rich for my blood), but it might be of interest to some here, so I thought I'd flag it up.
I was surprised Grosjean and Maldonado has identical numbers.
I personally think it might well be around 40% actually, I'll just stick to our Yes/No bet.
At least Gordon is nowhere to be seen today and the City is still paying for Labour's feckless scroungers.
Hasn't force always been a 'last resort' ?
He is a real old world charmer, Pulpstar.
. That, together with making sure devomax (etc.) happen, is why that pattern of votes could very well happen. It's already showing in polling, if rather shakily.
Anyway, Red Leicester may be a fine cheese, but the cheese of the month if not the year must be Brighton Blue. Herself gave me some the other night and it is wonderful, a very creamy, tangy taste but mellow. Of course it doesn't come from Brighton but from those awfully nice and very clever people at the High Weald Dairy at Horsted Keynes. You can buy it and their other products on line here:
http://www.highwealddairy.co.uk/index.php?webpage=product_detail.php&product_id=172755&cID=12203
If you like good cheese you will love Brighton Blue.
P.S. Their sheep milk cheese is pretty damn good too. They are doing a cheese board selection offer for twenty quid, which must be worth a go.
P.P.S. You lot being a suspicious bunch I suppose I ought to say I have no interest in the producers, I am jut trying to pass on a discovery.
P.P.P.S. Morris Dancer, a Yorkshireman, advocating eating Leicester cheese is rather sad but ought to tell us something about the state of Wensleydale Cheese in these modern times.
I do still expect Labour to be comfortably the largest Scottish party at the next general election simply because people will be so desperate to get rid of the Tories (probably with both Lab and SNP picking up a small increase on their 2010 scores thanks to the Lib Dem collapse), but I expect the SNP to easily win the next Scottish Parliament election, possibly with an overall majority. Even I would probably consider voting SNP for Holyrood.
The only possible worry for the SNP in the event of a "No" vote is not what the average voter will think, but potential internal infighting. Perhaps there'll be a hardline tendency within the SNP who'll say that the referendum failed because Salmond's offer was too timid (in terms of keeping the pound and other British things--"independence-lite") and will push to keep independence the top priority, while the SNP mainstream argue to put independence on the back-burner for a while and focus on other things. Or maybe the small group of rightwing SNP activists, who've been putting up with the leadership's leftwing policies up til now, will start getting restless.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/current-affairs/oscar-pistorius?AFF_ID=60065
Back Pistorius to be guilty, money back if he is not guilty ! Max £20.
Sweet dreams are made of cheese
Who am I to diss a brie?
I travel the world and the cheddar cheese
Everybody's looking for stilton
In truth, I only really eat Red Leicester, and occasionally Edam.
But the fact that SLAB with all its barely concealed corruption, incompetency and nonentities still polls so high is proof of some infernal interference with the affairs of man, so I guess there is a chance of divine intervention yet.
Whereas I have some sympathy with those espousing such a view, its weakness lies in having to prove criminal intent and a motive for gain.
Sadly all the evidence points to Gordon believing he was saving the world's economy rather than destroying it.
My advice to you Ben is to forsake the destructive self-deception of socialist ideals. All you need to do to cure yourself is to vote Tory.
"Some of them want to abuse you
Some of them want to be abused"
If socialism had worked one single time in one single place you could understand why people support it.
As it is, even the left's poster boy of the moment, Venezuela, is a basket case.
Putin says that the soldiers who are blockading Ukrainian military bases whilst wearing Russian uniforms with missing insignia, carrying Russian weapons, and using Russian vehicles are not in fact Russian, but some sort of Crimean militia defending their country from fascists.
Unfortunately for Vlad the BBC's Mark Lowen went and asked them who they are:
"But the BBC's Mark Lowen and his team managed to speak to one of the heavily armed soldiers blockading the military base in the town of Bakhchisarai, central Crimea, yesterday, who said he was a Russian soldier "usually based in Sevastopol"."
"Asked whether he thought it was right that Russian soldiers were barricading troops of the Ukrainian army in sovereign military bases of the Republic of Ukraine, the soldier said: "If you ask me as a person, then no it's not right. But I'm following orders.""
D'oh!
I remember the extraordinary scenes afterwards where he refused to give an interview and was whisked away in a car after the count...
He must be one of but a few individuals who have lost two seats in the space of 12 months!
Patrick Gordon-Walker was another...
And fruit cake, Mr. DaemonBarber, don't forget fruitcake. In fact I'd go so far as to suggest that the combination of a slice of rich, moist fruitcake accompanied by a fine English cheese (preferably one of the crumbly ones) and a glass of whisky (or whiskey, if you prefer it) is as close to the proof of the existence of God as one can get.
Bets void should charge be changed from ‘premeditated murder’ before verdict. Bets void should mistrial be declared
Conditions of refund:
Bets void should charge be changed from ‘premeditated murder’ before verdict.
Bets void should mistrial be declared.
Bets will not be accepted on this market from permanent residents of South Africa.
Applies to all bets placed before 11am, March 5th.
Max Refund E/£20 per customer
Whisky... I wonder what it was like when that first person took a look at his beer and said "this beer is good, but I think we can improve it... Get the kettle out..". However it played out, they should be sainted at least.
Putin repeatedly states that Russian forces, when and if deployed on ARC and/or Ukrainian territory, are there on an "humanitarian mission".
The lack of insignia identifying the origin and command line of the forces is a measure taken to de-escalate tension and assert the apolitical nature of their humanitarian purpose.
Now argue with that glw!
@Antifrank will be able to recommend some cracking Asian restaurants down here in our nation's fair capital
"Some of them want to abuse you
Some of them want to be abused"
Anyway, A short while ago I typed out a long email to you explaining why you should try the new Thief game. Then I hit the wrong button and lost the lot. Rather than starting from scratch and as you are probably going to read this can I say buy and play the new Thief game, a snip for £27 on steam, and it is humungous fun.
And there is quite a big horse racing event coming up that attracts a fair few quid in wagers...
If you wanted to get some publicity as a bookie now is the time to do it.
I need to tighten up and then send off my current short story, then work on another. In addition, there's Kingdom Asunder and Sir Edric's Treasure (I'm hoping the new start to the latter will work. It seems to be so far).