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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pieces of the electoral pie that have got to get a lot smaller if Cameron is to have any chance of staying at Number 10

Thanks to the new Populus monthly polling aggregate with a sample in February of 14,203 and the weekly averaging of the numbers in the five times a week YouGov polling we can get broader picture of the big dynamics in voting intentions since the 2010 general election.

Read the full story here

dugarbandier

Its all a question of where the switchers are though isn't it? You'd have to think that the Con-UKIP switchers in Tory-held marginals might tactically vote tory to try and keep out labour? meanwhile the LD collapse is smaller in marginals too? So all this switching talk could be overstating the case..

At least the blues will hope so

MikeSmithson

The evidence is that there are twice as many LD to LAB switchers in the seats that the Labour hopes to take from the Tories

JohnLoony

Don't worry, fellow PeebCons: in the next 14 months the Labour vote will collapse as former Lib Dem voters get scared of the prospect of Prime Minister Miliband; and the UKIP vote will collapse when the voters realise they don't have any proper policies and they don't want to split the votes.

Anyway.

While I was on my way to Lidl (which has a blue and yellow logo, by the way), singing or humming the Ukrainian national anthem, I kept noticing various bits of blue and yellow in the designs on the frontages of shops I was passing, and I was imagining that they were subliminal signs of Ukrainian identity proclaiming themselves. Then it occurred to me that blue and yellow are the colours of the two parties of our Great and Glorious Coalition.

I like Blue and yellow; they are my two favourite colours. I'm going to sing the Ukrainian national anthem every day until the crisis is over.

compouter2

FPT - Fitalass - "I am going to call tonight's YouGov an outlier, in fact I suspect that we will see a crossover in the polling lead sooner rather than later with YouGov in the next couple of months." - That's what we wanted. A confirmed movement of the polling crossover goalposts.

Stuart_Dickson

That 14,203 Populus sample allows us to look at all kind of sub-samples, eg. the Scottish Westminster voting intention (+/- change from UK GE 2010):

Lab 37% (-5)
SNP 31% (+11)
Con 17% (n/c)
LD 8% (-11)
UKIP 3% (+2)
Grn 2% (+1)

(Scottish sample size = 1,239)

edmundintokyo

compouter2 said:

FPT - Fitalass - "I am going to call tonight's YouGov an outlier, in fact I suspect that we will see a crossover in the polling lead sooner rather than later with YouGov in the next couple of months." - That's what we wanted. A confirmed movement of the polling crossover goalposts.

"Suspect", pb language for "hope".

JohnLoony

Independence for Scotland?

The Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) says YES
(because the United Kingdom is anachronistic and imperialist)
http://www.rcpbml.org.uk/wwie-14/ww14-07.htm#fourth

The Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) says NO
(because Great Britain has a community of language, territory, economic life, and culture)
http://www.cpgb-ml.org/index.php?secName=proletarian&subName=display&art=887

OldKingCole

Odd, although admittedly Off-Topic.

BBC site is advertising, in it’s Feature Sidebar: "Lost coalition: The story of Ted Heath and Jeremy Thorpe's doomed deal.”

However clicking on the link simply takes one to the familiar 404 ... Page Not Found.

I wonder who has discovered what and who, when they saw it, didn’t want it published?

Stuart_Dickson

edmundintokyo said:

compouter2 said:

FPT - Fitalass - "I am going to call tonight's YouGov an outlier, in fact I suspect that we will see a crossover in the polling lead sooner rather than later with YouGov in the next couple of months." - That's what we wanted. A confirmed movement of the polling crossover goalposts.

"Suspect", pb language for "hope".

I "suspect" that Fitalass is correct.

JackW

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown

2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds

dr_spyn

Mr Thrope and Mr Heath.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26381917

Nothing about dead great Danes or the worst single in the world from Rex Barker and The Ricochets - Jeremy, Jeremy, Woof, Woof, Bang.

Monksfield

One of those key sectors of the electorate is disproportionately represented by public sector workers - especially professionals, and lord only knows that the current administration, and in particular the Tory part, has done nothing whatsoever to endear themselves to it. They are going to Labour and not coming back. The other sector could be categorised broadly as disgruntled boomers; they despise Cameron and Clegg and like politics the way The Daily Express and Farage package it. If Farage gets airtime in the run up to GE 2015, he may just hold onto enough of these people.

JosiasJessop

OldKingCole said:

Odd, although admittedly Off-Topic.

BBC site is advertising, in it’s Feature Sidebar: "Lost coalition: The story of Ted Heath and Jeremy Thorpe's doomed deal.”

However clicking on the link simply takes one to the familiar 404 ... Page Not Found.

I wonder who has discovered what and who, when they saw it, didn’t want it published?

I always favour cock-up over conspiracy.

Innocent_Abroad

OldKingCole said:

Odd, although admittedly Off-Topic.

BBC site is advertising, in it’s Feature Sidebar: "Lost coalition: The story of Ted Heath and Jeremy Thorpe's doomed deal.”

However clicking on the link simply takes one to the familiar 404 ... Page Not Found.

I wonder who has discovered what and who, when they saw it, didn’t want it published?

It was all there when I looked.

What of course we all want an assurancy that the consequence of this is wholly due to various people in the Labour Party, and in consequence the arrest is down work at the crossroads:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26428308

Icarus

"The outlook in England appears to be somewhat better than in Scotland, particularly in the East and West Midlands where manufacturing investment is increasing, supported by local government investment and a buoyant housing market. We expect the improved market conditions to allow some cost recovery through increased pricing, which will make up some of the ground lost during the recession. In Scotland, there are several large projects on the horizon, including the Aberdeen relief road which is currently out for tender and should start towards the end of 2014. However, Government expenditure has not been increased and therefore we are not seeing the same improvement in transport, energy and infrastructure as in England. The independence referendum in September is undoubtedly causing some uncertainty and could be delaying investment decisions."

Comment in annual report of Breedon Aggregates a major supplier of aggregates and concrete to the construction industry.

RochdalePioneers

Farage remains key to the election. He has the kind of charisma not seen since Blair combined with Tebbit-esque cunning and guile (and Rabbit is one of the few Thatcherites I genuiny respect). In short Farage appeals to both the ocean of disaffected Tories who have abandoned the party in various waves since 92, and to the disaffected working bloke who abandoned Labour for Thatcher and then Blair and now doesn't vote as he hates all of them.

UKIP will struggle to win seats due to the idiocy of FPTP but they will do well enough to further undermine what's left of the Tory vote to put Milliband into number 10. And the Vote UKIP Get Ed campaign I see the Tories trying to get going is hilarious in that it proves why their vote deserves to have collapsed since 92. Ukip voters on the right have abandoned a Tory party they don't think represents them - removing Cameron via ddefeat might swing the party back in their direction so is a good thing, fear of Labour doesn't work as it would be swapping one party they hate for another.

And the exThatcherite/Blairites, telling them there is a risk of Labour winning, again not a threat. So the Tories need to counter UKIP on policy and charisma. On policy they are sunk -Merkel says nein, immigrants flow in, economy is recovering for a very narrow group of Tory donor types only. On charisma they are sunk - Cameron, Osborne, IDS all sneer, Shapps Green, Eric the Silurian and Gove aren't one of them, Boris isn't an MP.

UKIP have just been given major party status which means they will be all over the telly in the run up to the election. The last 6 months of the UKIP score dipping a touch have had little media exposure for tgem other than indiscretions by various unknowns. Stick Farage on the telly every day and we know their score surges.

UKIP are to the Tories as the SDP were to Labour - electoral death.

JosiasJessop

Icarus said:

"The outlook in England appears to be somewhat better than in Scotland, particularly in the East and West Midlands where manufacturing investment is increasing, supported by local government investment and a buoyant housing market. We expect the improved market conditions to allow some cost recovery through increased pricing, which will make up some of the ground lost during the recession. In Scotland, there are several large projects on the horizon, including the Aberdeen relief road which is currently out for tender and should start towards the end of 2014. However, Government expenditure has not been increased and therefore we are not seeing the same improvement in transport, energy and infrastructure as in England. The independence referendum in September is undoubtedly causing some uncertainty and could be delaying investment decisions."

Comment in annual report of Breedon Aggregates a major supplier of aggregates and concrete to the construction industry.

It's incredible to think that the Aberdeen Relief Road saga is still ongoing. If history is any guide, then construction won't be starting this year...

OldKingCole

dr_spyn said:

Mr Thrope and Mr Heath.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26381917

Nothing about dead great Danes or the worst single in the world from Rex Barker and The Ricochets - Jeremy, Jeremy, Woof, Woof, Bang.

Thanks Dr Spyn. Wonder why it doesn’t/didn’t work for me? Anyway, Mr Jessop, you are obviously right.

And, to me as a Liberal activist at the time, there was nothing new in the piece.I recall our local Liberal Executive (me, as agent and one other) sending a telegram...... remember those ..... to Party HQ.
Something on the lines of “Whoever has won, it’s clear Heath lost; don’t let him back!”

Would we have supported an agreement with a different Tory leader? I’m certain that wasn’t ever on the table.

DavidL

18% of 2010 tories are voting UKIP. That is the equivalent of 1/5 or 7%. Yet the tories are only 3-4% down on their election total. So they have also picked up some votes elsewhere. They have gained from the collapse of Lib Dem support by roughly half the amount of Labour.

Whose new ex Lib Dem supporters are going to prove the most loyal and where are they most useful. This is a complicated picture and looking at the broad sweep in these percentages may be misleading.

One thing is relatively clear. By historical standards (Blair 1 excepted) this tory government has remained remarkably popular with those that voted for it albeit they seem to have galvanised those that did not.

JackW

OldKingCole said:

dr_spyn said:

Mr Thrope and Mr Heath.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26381917

Nothing about dead great Danes or the worst single in the world from Rex Barker and The Ricochets - Jeremy, Jeremy, Woof, Woof, Bang.

Thanks Dr Spyn. Wonder why it doesn’t/didn’t work for me? Anyway, Mr Jessop, you are obviously right.

And, to me as a Liberal activist at the time, there was nothing new in the piece.I recall our local Liberal Executive (me, as agent and one other) sending a telegram...... remember those ..... to Party HQ.
Something on the lines of “Whoever has won, it’s clear Heath lost; don’t let him back!”

Would we have supported an agreement with a different Tory leader? I’m certain that wasn’t ever on the table.

Only 3 on your local Liberal Executive ....

Was pie making a prominent regional industry ??

Easterross

Good morning all. Pie charts are always interesting. It would be interesting to learn what movement, if any, in either direction these % have moved in the past year.

JackW

Easterross said:

Good morning all. Pie charts are always interesting. It would be interesting to learn what movement, if any, in either direction these % have moved in the past year.

"Pie charts are always interesting."

Titters ....

JonnyJimmy

Just noticed a move in IndyRef prices from Ladbrokes - No 1/6, Yes 11/2, under/over Yes % 40

OldKingCole

JackW said:

OldKingCole said:

dr_spyn said:

Mr Thrope and Mr Heath.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26381917

Nothing about dead great Danes or the worst single in the world from Rex Barker and The Ricochets - Jeremy, Jeremy, Woof, Woof, Bang.

Thanks Dr Spyn. Wonder why it doesn’t/didn’t work for me? Anyway, Mr Jessop, you are obviously right.

And, to me as a Liberal activist at the time, there was nothing new in the piece.I recall our local Liberal Executive (me, as agent and one other) sending a telegram...... remember those ..... to Party HQ.
Something on the lines of “Whoever has won, it’s clear Heath lost; don’t let him back!”

Would we have supported an agreement with a different Tory leader? I’m certain that wasn’t ever on the table.

Only 3 on your local Liberal Executive ....

Was pie making a prominent regional industry ??

Mr W, there were at the time a number of Liberal Execs which were pretty small. You surely recall that at that time all sorts of people were suddenly calling themselves Liberals who’d never been active in politics before! A bit like the UKIP phenomenon now.

One of my concerns was what would happen if my candidate actually won. We’d no constituency office, apart from a very temporary one in someone’s front room, no real organisation, and no funds, apart from what we’d raised to fight the election.

As we’d lost our deposit in 1970, saving that was, initially, a concern. At the pre-election meeting of the agents with the local Returning Officer the latter had outlined what he’d do if we needed a recount; lock everything away and start again in the morning. I was forced to ask what would happen if we needed one for a potential lost deposit.
As it was we came second!

JosiasJessop

Trouble on the third Forth bridge:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/business/company-news/deep-trouble.23509317

Someone's losing a heck of a lot of money, but fortunately not (so it appears) Scottish taxpayers.

All in all it's quite a good article that doesn't treat its readers as dummies (there's none of the 'as big as 500 double decker buses' rubbish).

JackW

OldKingCole said:

JackW said:

OldKingCole said:

dr_spyn said:

Mr Thrope and Mr Heath.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26381917

Nothing about dead great Danes or the worst single in the world from Rex Barker and The Ricochets - Jeremy, Jeremy, Woof, Woof, Bang.

Thanks Dr Spyn. Wonder why it doesn’t/didn’t work for me? Anyway, Mr Jessop, you are obviously right.

And, to me as a Liberal activist at the time, there was nothing new in the piece.I recall our local Liberal Executive (me, as agent and one other) sending a telegram...... remember those ..... to Party HQ.
Something on the lines of “Whoever has won, it’s clear Heath lost; don’t let him back!”

Would we have supported an agreement with a different Tory leader? I’m certain that wasn’t ever on the table.

Only 3 on your local Liberal Executive ....

Was pie making a prominent regional industry ??

Mr W, there were at the time a number of Liberal Execs which were pretty small. You surely recall that at that time all sorts of people were suddenly calling themselves Liberals who’d never been active in politics before! A bit like the UKIP phenomenon now.

One of my concerns was what would happen if my candidate actually won. We’d no constituency office, apart from a very temporary one in someone’s front room, no real organisation, and no funds, apart from what we’d raised to fight the election.

As we’d lost our deposit in 1970, saving that was, initially, a concern. At the pre-election meeting of the agents with the local Returning Officer the latter had outlined what he’d do if we needed a recount; lock everything away and start again in the morning. I was forced to ask what would happen if we needed one for a potential lost deposit.
As it was we came second!

A little relief must have overcome you as your candidate came second.

You saved your deposit and didn't win !!

another_richard

Events of the last year suggest that being an 'Aid Superpower' doesn't bring the geopolitical influence which the Cameroons promised it would.

Consequently might I suggest that they take a fresh look at the wisdom of:

1) Defence cuts
2) Shutting down power stations

Icarus

RochdalePioneers said:

Farage remains key to the election. He has the kind of charisma not seen since Blair .....

The term charisma (/kəˈrɪzmə/; pl. charismata, adj. charismatic) has two senses: (1) compelling attractiveness or charm that can inspire devotion in others, (2) a divinely conferred power or talent.

I think Farage has neither!

AlastairMeeks

If we had five times the military capability, would or should we be acting militarily now?

We need to realise that we are a once-great nation that is currently broke. We should save our money for essential defence, not for charging round the world whenever newspaper columnists feel outraged.

Alanbrooke

Salmond facing ban from Aberdeen Council property ?

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/alex-salmond-facing-aberdeen-council-ban-1-3327016

DavidL

JosiasJessop said:

Trouble on the third Forth bridge:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/business/company-news/deep-trouble.23509317

Someone's losing a heck of a lot of money, but fortunately not (so it appears) Scottish taxpayers.

All in all it's quite a good article that doesn't treat its readers as dummies (there's none of the 'as big as 500 double decker buses' rubbish).

As someone who crosses the current bridge 3-4 times a week it is remarkable how little progress has been made in the last year. As the article reports most of the support roads are in place but on the water there is almost nothing to be seen with the same coffers looking very much the same as they did 12 months ago.

It was extremly brave of any consortium to take on a project like this at fixed price and I suspect they are going to lose out on it. The fixed price protects the money paid by the taxpayer but does nothing to protect the Scottish economy from the consequences of the delay.

The problems with the existing bridge have largely been resolved: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-21522376

Those that question whether this has removed the need for the new bridge clearly don't cross the existing one very often. It is probably the second largest choke point (after the M8 in central Glasgow) in Scotland and will inevitably get worse as the housebuilding continues in south Fife for people who will probably be employed in Edinburgh. I fear the time spent on journeys to work over the next 3 or 4 years are not going to get any shorter.

MarkSenior

Unfortunately , the figures in the tables in the header are incorrect . As I have pointed out before the figures given are after eliminating DKs and WNV .
For Populus the correct figures are on Table 2 Q2 Page 17
LD to Lab switchers 25% and Con to UKIP switchers 15%

TGOHF

Monksfield said:

One of those key sectors of the electorate is disproportionately represented by public sector workers - especially professionals, and lord only knows that the current administration, and in particular the Tory part, has done nothing whatsoever to endear themselves to it. They are going to Labour and not coming back. The other sector could be categorised broadly as disgruntled boomers; they despise Cameron and Clegg and like politics the way The Daily Express and Farage package it. If Farage gets airtime in the run up to GE 2015, he may just hold onto enough of these people.

Not sure public sector workers ever voted Con in great swathes - and its a shrinking group as spending returns to more affordable levels.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Less than 10 days until first practice in Australia. Nyoooooom!

NickPalmer

Will the Euro results be announced by constituency again? That may tell us part of the answer about the 2010 LD vote. LD->Lab switcher come in two sorts - the "They betrayed us!" people and the "I'll vote tactically to get the government out" people. The former will switch to Lab in the Euros, the latter won't. So the Euro results should giver a baseline for continuing Libdem support at heart.

DavidL said:

One thing is relatively clear. By historical standards (Blair 1 excepted) this tory government has remained remarkably popular with those that voted for it albeit they seem to have galvanised those that did not.

Dunno, is 71% of those who voted for them last time (according to today's YG) unusually popular? Not a sarky question, I can't remember the position a year before past elections. They do get 4% of 2010 Labour voters and 11% of LDs.

YG have added a "would handle welfare best" question to the usual issues polls (which show no movement worth mentioning). Doesn't show anything exciting though - Lab ahead 30-28. People may interpret it differently - best=more generous or best=fairer or best=tougher. But suggests it's not particularly an election-winner for anyone.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/k1w4hfn3m8/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030314.pdf

Easterross

Alanbrooke said:

Salmond facing ban from Aberdeen Council property ?

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/alex-salmond-facing-aberdeen-council-ban-1-3327016

According to last night's Radio Scotland news interview with Aberdeen Labour Cllr Willie Rennie it will be every SNP Scottish government minister who is banned from all Aberdeen council property.

JackW

@MarkSenior

As PB's resident uber numismatist and currency supremo what is your advice on the status of a Scottish post independence currency?

I've very helpfully considered that a cultural link to the Armenian Dram might be appropriate.

Monksfield

TGOHF said:

Monksfield said:

One of those key sectors of the electorate is disproportionately represented by public sector workers - especially professionals, and lord only knows that the current administration, and in particular the Tory part, has done nothing whatsoever to endear themselves to it. They are going to Labour and not coming back. The other sector could be categorised broadly as disgruntled boomers; they despise Cameron and Clegg and like politics the way The Daily Express and Farage package it. If Farage gets airtime in the run up to GE 2015, he may just hold onto enough of these people.

Not sure public sector workers ever voted Con in great swathes - and its a shrinking group as spending returns to more affordable levels.

The point isn't that they ever voted Tory, although i'm sure plenty voted for Thatcher; the point is they aren't going to be voting LD now either. Hence they are back with Labour. Which will keep Labour around the mid to high 30s.

Monksfield

O/T....

Now we know why the gutter press was running its little 'closet pedos in the Labour party' meme last week. Words fail me, in my admiration at the lengths these people will go in the quest for balance.

SouthamObserver

London really does rule, doesn't it? That Evan Davies programme last night was mind-blowing. And frightening.

Carnyx

dr_spyn said:

Mr Thrope and Mr Heath.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26381917

Nothing about dead great Danes or the worst single in the world from Rex Barker and The Ricochets - Jeremy, Jeremy, Woof, Woof, Bang.

Or Auberon Waugh and the Dog Lovers' Party ...

Morris_Dancer

Rugby: Tuilagi and Yarde fit for training. Sounds unlikely they'll be in the squad, let alone team, to face Wales.

Been a pretty entertaining tournament so far, with a few hammerings and some very close encounters.

Edited extra bit: ahem, here's the link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/26423367

DavidL

NickPalmer said:

Will the Euro results be announced by constituency again? That may tell us part of the answer about the 2010 LD vote. LD->Lab switcher come in two sorts - the "They betrayed us!" people and the "I'll vote tactically to get the government out" people. The former will switch to Lab in the Euros, the latter won't. So the Euro results should giver a baseline for continuing Libdem support at heart.

DavidL said:

One thing is relatively clear. By historical standards (Blair 1 excepted) this tory government has remained remarkably popular with those that voted for it albeit they seem to have galvanised those that did not.

Dunno, is 71% of those who voted for them last time (according to today's YG) unusually popular? Not a sarky question, I can't remember the position a year before past elections. They do get 4% of 2010 Labour voters and 11% of LDs.

YG have added a "would handle welfare best" question to the usual issues polls (which show no movement worth mentioning). Doesn't show anything exciting though - Lab ahead 30-28. People may interpret it differently - best=more generous or best=fairer or best=tougher. But suggests it's not particularly an election-winner for anyone.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/k1w4hfn3m8/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030314.pdf

Like you Nick I am going by recollection than any study of the data. I appreciate that polling practice has changed and the tories had less far to fall than most governments in the lsat 40 years only starting at 36% but the tories have not really been below 28% and have generally hovvered in the low 30s. IIRC most governments of any stripe have tended to lose far more of their support until an election comes around again.

An interesting and important question at the next election is whether this means the scope for swingback has been greatly diminished on the basis voters never left in the first place. I suspect it has for the tories although the Lib Dems will be hoping that it applies to them in a major way.

NickPalmer

Monksfield said:

The point isn't that they ever voted Tory, although i'm sure plenty voted for Thatcher; the point is they aren't going to be voting LD now either. Hence they are back with Labour. Which will keep Labour around the mid to high 30s.

Yes, though I'm not sure that will persist after some years of relatively austere Labour government (which is what we'll get, Tory propaganda and far-left hopes to the contrary). The public sector vote tends to be anti-government since the government are seen as the bosses. In fact I suspect (but am too lazy to check) that much of the decline in the Labour vote from 1997-2010 was in the public sector.

JackW

Oz piling on the agony against SA.

Oz presently 59:0 leading by 266 and bimbling along @ five an over.

foxinsoxuk

There are about 160 000 doctors in the country, and according to Pulse surveys more than half voted Conservative in 2010. The public sector is not monolithically Labour, though mostly more left wing than similar private sector earners.

TGOHF said:

Monksfield said:

One of those key sectors of the electorate is disproportionately represented by public sector workers - especially professionals, and lord only knows that the current administration, and in particular the Tory part, has done nothing whatsoever to endear themselves to it. They are going to Labour and not coming back. The other sector could be categorised broadly as disgruntled boomers; they despise Cameron and Clegg and like politics the way The Daily Express and Farage package it. If Farage gets airtime in the run up to GE 2015, he may just hold onto enough of these people.

Not sure public sector workers ever voted Con in great swathes - and its a shrinking group as spending returns to more affordable levels.

SouthamObserver

As suspected, those Harman stories last week were a prelude to something. Interesting that the person concerned was actually arrested before those stories were published.

Carnyx

Alanbrooke said:

Salmond facing ban from Aberdeen Council property ?

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/alex-salmond-facing-aberdeen-council-ban-1-3327016

It's a curious idea, given the likely public meetings that we will be seeing over the next few months. And given the kind of people they already welcome to Aberdeen Council property ...

http://wklondon.typepad.com/welcome_to_optimism/2014/02/mrs-christie-michael-gove-and-old-school-strictness.html

Easterross

JackW said:

@MarkSenior

As PB's resident uber numismatist and currency supremo what is your advice on the status of a Scottish post independence currency?

I've very helpfully considered that a cultural link to the Armenian Dram might be appropriate.

What is wrong with a Glenmorangie dram Jack? The good citizens of Scotland's oldest royal burgh demand an explanation

JackW

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

30 minutes.

foxinsoxuk

Surely there is little point in voting tactically in the Euro elections? In a PR system, albeit an imperfect one, we see the real support of parties when stripped of tactical considerations, mitigated by freedom to protest vote.

NickPalmer said:

Will the Euro results be announced by constituency again? That may tell us part of the answer about the 2010 LD vote. LD->Lab switcher come in two sorts - the "They betrayed us!" people and the "I'll vote tactically to get the government out" people. The former will switch to Lab in the Euros, the latter won't. So the Euro results should giver a baseline for continuing Libdem support at heart.

DavidL said:

One thing is relatively clear. By historical standards (Blair 1 excepted) this tory government has remained remarkably popular with those that voted for it albeit they seem to have galvanised those that did not.

Dunno, is 71% of those who voted for them last time (according to today's YG) unusually popular? Not a sarky question, I can't remember the position a year before past elections. They do get 4% of 2010 Labour voters and 11% of LDs.

YG have added a "would handle welfare best" question to the usual issues polls (which show no movement worth mentioning). Doesn't show anything exciting though - Lab ahead 30-28. People may interpret it differently - best=more generous or best=fairer or best=tougher. But suggests it's not particularly an election-winner for anyone.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/k1w4hfn3m8/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030314.pdf

DaemonBarber

Alanbrooke said:

Salmond facing ban from Aberdeen Council property ?

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/alex-salmond-facing-aberdeen-council-ban-1-3327016

SLAB really are political GIANTS! This is a master-stroke.

NickPalmer

Russians stand down the troops on the Ukraine border - further evidence that they're going to settle for Crimea if nothing unexpected happens? Or just a tactical move to head off sanctions?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/04/ukraine-crisis-russian-troops-crimea-john-kerry-kiev

DavidL

SouthamObserver said:

London really does rule, doesn't it? That Evan Davies programme last night was mind-blowing. And frightening.

Really a program anyone interested in the UK economy or political economy has to watch.

As I said last night the key difference is that London is no longer the hub for the UK economy. At the very least it is the hub for western Europe and a major hub for the world. It is a massive UK asset but that does not mean it does not have uncomfortable consequences for the rest of us.

BobaFett

SouthamObserver said:

As suspected, those Harman stories last week were a prelude to something. Interesting that the person concerned was actually arrested before those stories were published.

Indeed. As I said last night. The Mail clearly had the story and wanted to dredge up some ancient 'dirt' on Labour to neutralise the party-political damage. Pretty pathetic stuff.

JosiasJessop

DavidL said:

JosiasJessop said:

Trouble on the third Forth bridge:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/business/company-news/deep-trouble.23509317

Someone's losing a heck of a lot of money, but fortunately not (so it appears) Scottish taxpayers.

All in all it's quite a good article that doesn't treat its readers as dummies (there's none of the 'as big as 500 double decker buses' rubbish).

As someone who crosses the current bridge 3-4 times a week it is remarkable how little progress has been made in the last year. As the article reports most of the support roads are in place but on the water there is almost nothing to be seen with the same coffers looking very much the same as they did 12 months ago.

It was extremly brave of any consortium to take on a project like this at fixed price and I suspect they are going to lose out on it. The fixed price protects the money paid by the taxpayer but does nothing to protect the Scottish economy from the consequences of the delay.

The problems with the existing bridge have largely been resolved: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-21522376

Those that question whether this has removed the need for the new bridge clearly don't cross the existing one very often. It is probably the second largest choke point (after the M8 in central Glasgow) in Scotland and will inevitably get worse as the housebuilding continues in south Fife for people who will probably be employed in Edinburgh. I fear the time spent on journeys to work over the next 3 or 4 years are not going to get any shorter.

The biggest mistake with the new Forth crossing is not having a cyclepath/walkway across. The existing Forth bridge will not last forever even with the welcome work on its cables, and when it goes, so does the only crossing point for cyclists and walkers downstream of Kincardine.

I would also be wary of concluding that the contractors will not try to gather back their losses from Scottish taxpayers. Whilst it will be difficult, there is a long and illustrious trend in fixed-price civ-eng contracts suddenly becoming very elastic. Although in this case, it's difficult to see how they could.

JackW

Easterross said:

JackW said:

@MarkSenior

As PB's resident uber numismatist and currency supremo what is your advice on the status of a Scottish post independence currency?

I've very helpfully considered that a cultural link to the Armenian Dram might be appropriate.

What is wrong with a Glenmorangie dram Jack? The good citizens of Scotland's oldest royal burgh demand an explanation

I don't overly favour Glenmorangie. Indeed favouring one whisky tipple over another for a currency is surely a separatists dream. No I shall opt for :

100 Drams = 1 Malt .... A Single Malt

malcolmg

foxinsoxuk said:

There are about 160 000 doctors in the country, and according to Pulse surveys more than half voted Conservative in 2010. The public sector is not monolithically Labour, though mostly more left wing than similar private sector earners.

TGOHF said:

Monksfield said:

One of those key sectors of the electorate is disproportionately represented by public sector workers - especially professionals, and lord only knows that the current administration, and in particular the Tory part, has done nothing whatsoever to endear themselves to it. They are going to Labour and not coming back. The other sector could be categorised broadly as disgruntled boomers; they despise Cameron and Clegg and like politics the way The Daily Express and Farage package it. If Farage gets airtime in the run up to GE 2015, he may just hold onto enough of these people.

Not sure public sector workers ever voted Con in great swathes - and its a shrinking group as spending returns to more affordable levels.

What do you expect , the very highly paid doctors vote Tory to keep their high pay while the arse wipers vote Labour to try and get a decent wage. Same as most other jobs, the elite are for the Tories , surprise surprise.

DaemonBarber

JackW said:

Easterross said:

JackW said:

@MarkSenior

As PB's resident uber numismatist and currency supremo what is your advice on the status of a Scottish post independence currency?

I've very helpfully considered that a cultural link to the Armenian Dram might be appropriate.

What is wrong with a Glenmorangie dram Jack? The good citizens of Scotland's oldest royal burgh demand an explanation

I don't overly favour Glenmorangie. Indeed favouring one whisky tipple over another for a currency is surely a separatists dream. No I shall opt for :

100 Drams = 1 Malt .... A Single Malt

Nothing wrong with a good blended malt Jack.
But I fear this may be pushing the analogy too far...

DavidL

NickPalmer said:

Russians stand down the troops on the Ukraine border - further evidence that they're going to settle for Crimea if nothing unexpected happens? Or just a tactical move to head off sanctions?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/04/ukraine-crisis-russian-troops-crimea-john-kerry-kiev

Once the principle of a plebasite is accepted in the Crimea it will be easier to argue the same should apply to relevant parts (ie those with some assets) in eastern Ukraine. I suspect the Russsians have found things working out rather better than they feared.

anotherDave

dugarbandier said:

Its all a question of where the switchers are though isn't it? You'd have to think that the Con-UKIP switchers in Tory-held marginals might tactically vote tory to try and keep out labour? meanwhile the LD collapse is smaller in marginals too? So all this switching talk could be overstating the case..

At least the blues will hope so

Yes, in Con/Lab marginals, you'd expect Labour-leaning people to have stayed with Labour rather than switching to LD in 2010.

Whether Labour-leaners stay with the LDs in LD/Con marginals will be interesting. They voted LD in 2010 to keep Conservatives out of Downing St, but the LDs put them in so why vote LD again?

JosiasJessop

Monksfield said:

O/T....

Now we know why the gutter press was running its little 'closet pedos in the Labour party' meme last week. Words fail me, in my admiration at the lengths these people will go in the quest for balance.

Surely it wasn't 'closet pedos in the Labour party'? It was a claim that an organisation linked to senior Labour officials had had links with a very scummy organisation. Not the same thing at all.

As I have said passim; if you have an organisation with 1,000 people in it, you will have x rapists, y fraudsters, z paedophiles, and n ner-do-wells.

This is the same if the organisation is the police force, a political party, or a company. The reason? It's practically impossible to weed out such people *before* they commit a crime.

I find the idea that one political party is worse than another in this respect rather baffling.

BobaFett

MarkSenior said:

Unfortunately , the figures in the tables in the header are incorrect . As I have pointed out before the figures given are after eliminating DKs and WNV .
For Populus the correct figures are on Table 2 Q2 Page 17
LD to Lab switchers 25% and Con to UKIP switchers 15%

That's how we do polling analysis. We net them off.
Otherwise we'd have polls with both big parties marooned somewhere in the 20s.

BobaFett

TGOHF said:

Monksfield said:

One of those key sectors of the electorate is disproportionately represented by public sector workers - especially professionals, and lord only knows that the current administration, and in particular the Tory part, has done nothing whatsoever to endear themselves to it. They are going to Labour and not coming back. The other sector could be categorised broadly as disgruntled boomers; they despise Cameron and Clegg and like politics the way The Daily Express and Farage package it. If Farage gets airtime in the run up to GE 2015, he may just hold onto enough of these people.

Not sure public sector workers ever voted Con in great swathes - and its a shrinking group as spending returns to more affordable levels.

Pretty sure you are very wrong about that - middle class public servants used to vote Tory in big numbers during the 1980s. It has been one of the Tories' massive strategic mistakes to alienate them - some of the rhetoric we see on here about them says it all.

[Deleted User]

Seems SeanT was dead right about the effectiveness of Osborne's 'spread fear and doubt about the currency and national finances' speech in Edinburgh:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/03/scottish-anxiety-independence-revealed-poll

It is going to be a NO. By a big margin.

Let's instead now talk about what happens after the NO and how/when/if we will get Devomax. (Which is clearly what Salmond wants anyway).

Slackbladder

SouthamObserver said:

London really does rule, doesn't it? That Evan Davies programme last night was mind-blowing. And frightening.

I watched that program, it was very interesting.

Not sure that anyone has any real solutions to the 'issue', or even if anything should be done about it...

NickPalmer

foxinsoxuk said:

Surely there is little point in voting tactically in the Euro elections? In a PR system, albeit an imperfect one, we see the real support of parties when stripped of tactical considerations, mitigated by freedom to protest vote.

NickPalmer said:

Will the Euro results be announced by constituency again? That may tell us part of the answer about the 2010 LD vote. LD->Lab switcher come in two sorts - the "They betrayed us!" people and the "I'll vote tactically to get the government out" people. The former will switch to Lab in the Euros, the latter won't. So the Euro results should giver a baseline for continuing Libdem support at heart.

Yes, that's what I meant. The Euros will separate the 2010 LibDems who have been really appalled by the Coalition from those who are merely voting tactically.

anotherDave's point isn't quite right. Many tactical voters decide afresh at each election on the basis of what they think the position now is. In 2010, LibDems in my patch argued quite successfully in the final week, using a Nottingham Post voodoo poll of 20 shoppers (I'm not making that up!) that put them second, that I was stuffed and only voting Libdem could stop the Tories. They will have difficulty making the same case in 2015.

JackW

DaemonBarber said:

JackW said:

Easterross said:

JackW said:

@MarkSenior

As PB's resident uber numismatist and currency supremo what is your advice on the status of a Scottish post independence currency?

I've very helpfully considered that a cultural link to the Armenian Dram might be appropriate.

What is wrong with a Glenmorangie dram Jack? The good citizens of Scotland's oldest royal burgh demand an explanation

I don't overly favour Glenmorangie. Indeed favouring one whisky tipple over another for a currency is surely a separatists dream. No I shall opt for :

100 Drams = 1 Malt .... A Single Malt

Nothing wrong with a good blended malt Jack.
But I fear this may be pushing the analogy too far...

Indeed some blended malts are quite presentable. Perhaps we should refine the system around the guinea.

100 Drams = 1 Blended Malt
105 Drams = 1 Single Malt

Wulfrun_Phil

NickPalmer said:

Will the Euro results be announced by constituency again? That may tell us part of the answer about the 2010 LD vote. LD->Lab switcher come in two sorts - the "They betrayed us!" people and the "I'll vote tactically to get the government out" people. The former will switch to Lab in the Euros, the latter won't. So the Euro results should giver a baseline for continuing Libdem support at heart.

I agree with your reasoning and expect the Euros to be a better guide to the LD baseline than the very local factors influencing the local elections held on the same day. If that baseline turns out to be very low and confirms the LDs in 4th place or a poor 3rd in constituencies that they claim to be competitive in, it could in turn scupper their chances of picking up the "I'll vote tactically to get the government out" lot at the GE.

The best way of scuppering a spurious bar chart from the LDs is to issue one showing them in 4th place based on actual votes cast.

anotherDave

RochdalePioneers said:

Farage remains key to the election. He has the kind of charisma not seen since Blair combined with Tebbit-esque cunning and guile (and Rabbit is one of the few Thatcherites I genuiny respect). In short Farage appeals to both the ocean of disaffected Tories who have abandoned the party in various waves since 92, and to the disaffected working bloke who abandoned Labour for Thatcher and then Blair and now doesn't vote as he hates all of them.

UKIP will struggle to win seats due to the idiocy of FPTP but they will do well enough to further undermine what's left of the Tory vote to put Milliband into number 10. And the Vote UKIP Get Ed campaign I see the Tories trying to get going is hilarious in that it proves why their vote deserves to have collapsed since 92. Ukip voters on the right have abandoned a Tory party they don't think represents them - removing Cameron via ddefeat might swing the party back in their direction so is a good thing, fear of Labour doesn't work as it would be swapping one party they hate for another.

And the exThatcherite/Blairites, telling them there is a risk of Labour winning, again not a threat. So the Tories need to counter UKIP on policy and charisma. On policy they are sunk -Merkel says nein, immigrants flow in, economy is recovering for a very narrow group of Tory donor types only. On charisma they are sunk - Cameron, Osborne, IDS all sneer, Shapps Green, Eric the Silurian and Gove aren't one of them, Boris isn't an MP.

UKIP have just been given major party status which means they will be all over the telly in the run up to the election. The last 6 months of the UKIP score dipping a touch have had little media exposure for tgem other than indiscretions by various unknowns. Stick Farage on the telly every day and we know their score surges.

UKIP are to the Tories as the SDP were to Labour - electoral death.

1. IDS doesn't sneer.

2. UKIP have been given major party status for the 2014 EU elections. They've not been given major party status for the 2015 GE (yet).

http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/consultations/major-political-parties-2014/statement

TheWatcher

BobaFett said:

SouthamObserver said:

As suspected, those Harman stories last week were a prelude to something. Interesting that the person concerned was actually arrested before those stories were published.

Indeed. As I said last night. The Mail clearly had the story and wanted to dredge up some ancient 'dirt' on Labour to neutralise the party-political damage. Pretty pathetic stuff.

How did they persuade Tom Watson to set the ball rolling last year?

Easterross

malcolmg said:

foxinsoxuk said:

There are about 160 000 doctors in the country, and according to Pulse surveys more than half voted Conservative in 2010. The public sector is not monolithically Labour, though mostly more left wing than similar private sector earners.

TGOHF said:

Monksfield said:

One of those key sectors of the electorate is disproportionately represented by public sector workers - especially professionals, and lord only knows that the current administration, and in particular the Tory part, has done nothing whatsoever to endear themselves to it. They are going to Labour and not coming back. The other sector could be categorised broadly as disgruntled boomers; they despise Cameron and Clegg and like politics the way The Daily Express and Farage package it. If Farage gets airtime in the run up to GE 2015, he may just hold onto enough of these people.

Not sure public sector workers ever voted Con in great swathes - and its a shrinking group as spending returns to more affordable levels.

What do you expect , the very highly paid doctors vote Tory to keep their high pay while the arse wipers vote Labour to try and get a decent wage. Same as most other jobs, the elite are for the Tories , surprise surprise.

Malcolm you should know full well that in Scotland large swathes of what you describe as "the elite" vote Liberal. It is no accident that 20% of Scottish LibDem MPs come from the Landed Gentry/Aristocracy, i.e. my MP the Viscount Thurso and Aberdeenshire West's brainy Baronet Sir Robert Smith.

JackW

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

10 minutes

Slackbladder

Patrick said:

Seems SeanT was dead right about the effectiveness of Osborne's 'spread fear and doubt about the currency and national finances' speech in Edinburgh:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/03/scottish-anxiety-independence-revealed-poll

It is going to be a NO. By a big margin.

Let's instead now talk about what happens after the NO and how/when/if we will get Devomax. (Which is clearly what Salmond wants anyway).

If anything Devo-Max is even more messy in terms of negotiations than full independence is.

Innocent_Abroad

BobaFett said:

MarkSenior said:

Unfortunately , the figures in the tables in the header are incorrect . As I have pointed out before the figures given are after eliminating DKs and WNV .
For Populus the correct figures are on Table 2 Q2 Page 17
LD to Lab switchers 25% and Con to UKIP switchers 15%

That's how we do polling analysis. We net them off.
Otherwise we'd have polls with both big parties marooned somewhere in the 20s.

True, and suggests to me that movement isn't so much from Party X to Party Y as from X to DK/WNV and from DK/WNV to Y. Not sure that Pollsters know how to capture the speed of this movement, though.

The other assumption I would challenge is that every voter wants their Party of choice in government. I suspect that there are not a few "oppositionists" and that their number is growing. I'd've thought that the Pollsters would want to capture the size of this group, but again may not know the best way to do so.

JosiasJessop

JackW said:

Easterross said:

JackW said:

@MarkSenior

As PB's resident uber numismatist and currency supremo what is your advice on the status of a Scottish post independence currency?

I've very helpfully considered that a cultural link to the Armenian Dram might be appropriate.

What is wrong with a Glenmorangie dram Jack? The good citizens of Scotland's oldest royal burgh demand an explanation

I don't overly favour Glenmorangie. Indeed favouring one whisky tipple over another for a currency is surely a separatists dream. No I shall opt for :

100 Drams = 1 Malt .... A Single Malt

A good friend of mine - an Englishman who chose to live in the Scottish borders - had to regularly travel the world. He liked fine whisky and fine fishing, but mostly drank Glenmorangie whilst abroad. When I asked why, he said that it was a good (although not excellent) malt, but it was available in virtually all hotels he stayed in. If he asked for something more exotic - Tasliker, Laphroig etc - then he often got a blend instead, masquerading as the real thing.

Even worse, he was occasionally served whiskey (shudders)

BobaFett

@JJ

You are right. Great post. The other problem with such stories is that they turn this thread into a cesspit. Hopefully we won't see endless posts about this one.

TGOHF

Slackbladder said:

Patrick said:

Seems SeanT was dead right about the effectiveness of Osborne's 'spread fear and doubt about the currency and national finances' speech in Edinburgh:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/03/scottish-anxiety-independence-revealed-poll

It is going to be a NO. By a big margin.

Let's instead now talk about what happens after the NO and how/when/if we will get Devomax. (Which is clearly what Salmond wants anyway).

If anything Devo-Max is even more messy in terms of negotiations than full independence is.

No devomax without Evel...

AlastairMeeks

Slackbladder said:

SouthamObserver said:

London really does rule, doesn't it? That Evan Davies programme last night was mind-blowing. And frightening.

I watched that program, it was very interesting.

Not sure that anyone has any real solutions to the 'issue', or even if anything should be done about it...

Oh no! What a terrible disaster! Britain has one of the world's most successful city (perhaps even the world's most successful city). What fresh calamity can be heaped on our heads?

DaemonBarber

Slackbladder said:

Patrick said:

Seems SeanT was dead right about the effectiveness of Osborne's 'spread fear and doubt about the currency and national finances' speech in Edinburgh:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/03/scottish-anxiety-independence-revealed-poll

It is going to be a NO. By a big margin.

Let's instead now talk about what happens after the NO and how/when/if we will get Devomax. (Which is clearly what Salmond wants anyway).

If anything Devo-Max is even more messy in terms of negotiations than full independence is.

Yeah but at least we get to keep the £ ;-)

Quite what will happen to the West Lothian Question with Devo-Max is anyone's guess.
Then there is the Barnett formula too, given the greater fiscal autonomy that any settlement would confer...

JackW

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :

Con 302 .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 39 .. SNP 10 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 1 .. Green 1 .. Respect 0 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 24 short of a majority

.............................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

anotherDave

BobaFett said:

MarkSenior said:

Unfortunately , the figures in the tables in the header are incorrect . As I have pointed out before the figures given are after eliminating DKs and WNV .
For Populus the correct figures are on Table 2 Q2 Page 17
LD to Lab switchers 25% and Con to UKIP switchers 15%

That's how we do polling analysis. We net them off.
Otherwise we'd have polls with both big parties marooned somewhere in the 20s.

But in the case of switchers, you want to know the proportion of the 2010 voters who have switched, so you need those numbers.

Easterross

Wonderful Jack, what is the change in seats since the last ARSE projection?

isam

JonnyJimmy said:

Just noticed a move in IndyRef prices from Ladbrokes - No 1/6, Yes 11/2, under/over Yes % 40

How queer... You can back yes at 11/2 and no at 1/4

£15.30@11/2 and £80@1/4 and you have a free pint of lager

Charles

NickPalmer said:

Monksfield said:

The point isn't that they ever voted Tory, although i'm sure plenty voted for Thatcher; the point is they aren't going to be voting LD now either. Hence they are back with Labour. Which will keep Labour around the mid to high 30s.

Yes, though I'm not sure that will persist after some years of relatively austere Labour government (which is what we'll get, Tory propaganda and far-left hopes to the contrary). The public sector vote tends to be anti-government since the government are seen as the bosses. In fact I suspect (but am too lazy to check) that much of the decline in the Labour vote from 1997-2010 was in the public sector.

The big worry I have about Labour is not the headline spending - which will be constrained. It's the fact that they are captured by the vested interests in sectors that need major reform - education, health and welfare - in order to meet ever increasing consumer demands and to equip the next generation for an ever more competitive world.

isam

BobaFett said:

MarkSenior said:

Unfortunately , the figures in the tables in the header are incorrect . As I have pointed out before the figures given are after eliminating DKs and WNV .
For Populus the correct figures are on Table 2 Q2 Page 17
LD to Lab switchers 25% and Con to UKIP switchers 15%

That's how we do polling analysis. We net them off.
Otherwise we'd have polls with both big parties marooned somewhere in the 20s.

Who is we? People that can't interpret numbers properly?

Charles

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

London really does rule, doesn't it? That Evan Davies programme last night was mind-blowing. And frightening.

Really a program anyone interested in the UK economy or political economy has to watch.

As I said last night the key difference is that London is no longer the hub for the UK economy. At the very least it is the hub for western Europe and a major hub for the world. It is a massive UK asset but that does not mean it does not have uncomfortable consequences for the rest of us.

I've lived in London 15 years* - spend my time thinking about France, Germany, Scandiland, the US, China and Japan. Sometimes Indonesia and LatAm. Rarely Coventy, Bristol or Sheffield.

* Still not a Londoner though...

BobaFett

@Antifrabk

antifrank said:

Slackbladder said:

SouthamObserver said:

London really does rule, doesn't it? That Evan Davies programme last night was mind-blowing. And frightening.

I watched that program, it was very interesting.

Not sure that anyone has any real solutions to the 'issue', or even if anything should be done about it...

Oh no! What a terrible disaster! Britain has one of the world's most successful city (perhaps even the world's most successful city). What fresh calamity can be heaped on our heads?

The comedy moment was when the bloke from Yorkshire said "we've got plenty of space up here" pointing to verdant hills. Given that it's near impossible to get so much as 25 houses built anywhere near anyone in such rural outposts I did wonder what planet he was living on.

BobaFett

anotherDave said:

BobaFett said:

MarkSenior said:

Unfortunately , the figures in the tables in the header are incorrect . As I have pointed out before the figures given are after eliminating DKs and WNV .
For Populus the correct figures are on Table 2 Q2 Page 17
LD to Lab switchers 25% and Con to UKIP switchers 15%

That's how we do polling analysis. We net them off.
Otherwise we'd have polls with both big parties marooned somewhere in the 20s.

But in the case of switchers, you want to know the proportion of the 2010 voters who have switched, so you need those numbers.

I grasp that but the usual guidance is that the DKs break with the pledges, as a rule.

OldKingCole

Australia vs S. Africa. Aussies effectively 330-1 in their second innings.

CarlottaVance

Oh goody! Salmond to denounce Osbourne's 'monumental error' just as the polls turn:

Independence support drops after George Osborne's Scottish pound warning
But Alex Salmond will today argue the Chancellor's rejection of a currency union with an independent Scotland is a "monumental error".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10674124/Independence-support-drops-after-George-Osbornes-Scottish-pound-warning.html

JackW

Easterross said:

Wonderful Jack, what is the change in seats since the last ARSE projection?

Only changes since the last projection on 4 Feb are Con -4 .. LibDem +4

Morris_Dancer

Miss Vance, I saw on the news last night that Salmond was coming to London for a speech.

I suspect all he'll do is is try (and succeed) to annoy the English so that there's anti-Salmond press and then point at that and say "Look how the evil English hate us" to try and encourage a certain segment of Scotsmen to vote Yes.

F1: there does seem to be a slight consensus emerging that, after Mercedes, Williams could be the top team. It'd be staggering and fantastic were it so (not least because I backed Massa and Bottas at 40 and 65 respectively for the title). Williams is almost certainly the most reliable team, or were at the end of testing (this may change as teams will bring more parts to Australia, probably).

JackW

JosiasJessop said:

JackW said:

Easterross said:

JackW said:

@MarkSenior

As PB's resident uber numismatist and currency supremo what is your advice on the status of a Scottish post independence currency?

I've very helpfully considered that a cultural link to the Armenian Dram might be appropriate.

What is wrong with a Glenmorangie dram Jack? The good citizens of Scotland's oldest royal burgh demand an explanation

I don't overly favour Glenmorangie. Indeed favouring one whisky tipple over another for a currency is surely a separatists dream. No I shall opt for :

100 Drams = 1 Malt .... A Single Malt

A good friend of mine - an Englishman who chose to live in the Scottish borders - had to regularly travel the world. He liked fine whisky and fine fishing, but mostly drank Glenmorangie whilst abroad. When I asked why, he said that it was a good (although not excellent) malt, but it was available in virtually all hotels he stayed in. If he asked for something more exotic - Tasliker, Laphroig etc - then he often got a blend instead, masquerading as the real thing.

Even worse, he was occasionally served whiskey (shudders)

Quelle horror !!

I'd rate Glenmorangie as a very decent 'Burnley FC' of a single malt - not quite top division but widely available to the masses .... including residents of Bedford.

state_go_away

BobaFett said:

@Antifrabk

antifrank said:

Slackbladder said:

SouthamObserver said:

London really does rule, doesn't it? That Evan Davies programme last night was mind-blowing. And frightening.

I watched that program, it was very interesting.

Not sure that anyone has any real solutions to the 'issue', or even if anything should be done about it...

Oh no! What a terrible disaster! Britain has one of the world's most successful city (perhaps even the world's most successful city). What fresh calamity can be heaped on our heads?

The comedy moment was when the bloke from Yorkshire said "we've got plenty of space up here" pointing to verdant hills. Given that it's near impossible to get so much as 25 houses built anywhere near anyone in such rural outposts I did wonder what planet he was living on.

The most unrealistic moment came when Evan turned his hand to being a Tube ticket barrier man. He did a great job when being a dock crane worker but was far too helpful and polite when giving directions as a Tube worker -how unrealistic can you get!
He even smiled as he gave advice which surely must be against Union rules

TGOHF

isam said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Just noticed a move in IndyRef prices from Ladbrokes - No 1/6, Yes 11/2, under/over Yes % 40

How queer... You can back yes at 11/2 and no at 1/4

£15.30@11/2 and £80@1/4 and you have a free pint of lager

A free pint in September - that's the problem

Does seem that Yes's heart not head strategy isn't cutting the mustard.

isam

state_go_away said:

BobaFett said:

@Antifrabk

antifrank said:

Slackbladder said:

SouthamObserver said:

London really does rule, doesn't it? That Evan Davies programme last night was mind-blowing. And frightening.

I watched that program, it was very interesting.

Not sure that anyone has any real solutions to the 'issue', or even if anything should be done about it...

Oh no! What a terrible disaster! Britain has one of the world's most successful city (perhaps even the world's most successful city). What fresh calamity can be heaped on our heads?

The comedy moment was when the bloke from Yorkshire said "we've got plenty of space up here" pointing to verdant hills. Given that it's near impossible to get so much as 25 houses built anywhere near anyone in such rural outposts I did wonder what planet he was living on.

The most unrealistic moment came when Evan turned his hand to being a Tube ticket barrier man. He did a great job when being a dock crane worker but was far too helpful and polite when giving directions as a Tube worker -how unrealistic can you get!
He even smiled as he gave advice which surely must be against Union rules

What did the programme tell us that we didn't already know?

Morris_Dancer

F1: incidentally, it was the BBC's decision to get rid of technical analyst Gary Anderson:
http://f1broadcasting.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/gary-anderson-to-leave-bbcs-formula-1-team/?relatedposts_exclude=4245

No replacement has been made, so there's no technical analyst. Leaving aside Anderson was a top chap (I think I described him as the only good change the BBC made after its Judas Iscariot approach to licence fee-payers and F1 coverage), this season we have:
new engines
new ERS
new turbos
new gearboxes
major
aerodynamic regulation changes
fixed gear ratios (one change permitted, for this season only)
smaller fuel tanks and limited fuel flow
new tyres
increased DRS

Perfect time to ditch a well-liked and intelligent technical analyst... *sighs*

JosiasJessop

BobaFett said:

@JJ

You are right. Great post. The other problem with such stories is that they turn this thread into a cesspit. Hopefully we won't see endless posts about this one.

It's a shame many people did not think like this when the McAlpine allegations came out. Indeed, the latest allegations are just that at the moment - allegations.

However, in my (I think) only post on the NCCL allegations, I admitted to a certain schadenfreude that Harman et al had this in their past.

At the time, I said that Watson had been particularly stupid in making such non-specific allegations. Some on the left on here shouted me down, but such claims create a febrile atmosphere than can drag anyone into them.

After all, the one semi-proved abuser major politician that has emerged so far, Cyril Smith, was a Liberal / Labour politician ...

CarlottaVance

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Vance, I saw on the news last night that Salmond was coming to London for a speech.

He's not 'jetting in for the day' to 'deliver a lecture' surely? I thought he didn't approve of that sort of thing?

I wonder if he's going to do an interview with the SNP's broadcaster of choice, Russia TV too?